MIGHTY RIVER POWER Issue Price

[POSSUM THE CAT]

I will start the ball rolling my estimate is $2.20 Lets have your estimates or Guesses

[tosspot]

considering all we have is a guess. ill say $2.45-2.50

[Banksie]

Based an article I read that said "Investment banking sources said it looked like Mighty River would be priced at around $2.35 to $2.45 a share" I guess $2.40

[Toasty]

Obviously it will be $2.38!

[Temoana]

As a guess range is allowed, my guess is that the price will be between $2.35 and $2.80 :)
But if I have to be tied down $2.41

I didn't comment elsewhere, but after all the shenanigans around the float, I actually increased the amount I applied for.
Really more interested in the Meridian float though (as a SthIslander)

[Baaarney]

My guess is $2.48

[Pumice]

Estimate $1.95 AUD

[fungus pudding]

As a guess range is allowed, my guess is that the price will be between $2.35 and $2.80 :)
But if I have to be tied down $2.41

I didn't comment elsewhere, but after all the shenanigans around the float, I actually increased the amount I applied for.
Really more interested in the Meridian float though (as a SthIslander)

I think a few increased their orders. I did after L/G came out with their nonsense, and found the eaisest way was to withdraw the first application and submit a new one. No idea how many would have done that, but it could make a difference as number of withdrawals was reported as high. A friend who doesn't bother with shares wanted to 'make a statement' after L/G proposal so applied for 50k worth which was quite a leap for property investor who doesn't like the share market. So they might have lost a few, but they've certainly gained some as well. I'll go 2.55 (as long as I don't have to put money on it! :p )

[CJ]

$2.45
and up to $2.70 by end of week

My guess for scaling is about 50% - actually that is a hope, in that I hope it isn't more than that.

[Bunta]

$2.50
$2.95 by end of day

[stanace]

$2.40,
$2.88 at days end,
I'll take my 20% and take the wife to the Casino.

[rocketship]

After the L/G announcement I thought it wouldn't even reach $2.35 but over the last few days, demand has soared (talking to ASB). So I am picking towards the higher end of $2.60 :scared: (the government needs to make some money out of it!)

[gypsy]

My guess is $2.30

[SnakeEyes]

I reckon $2.24

[zcyong]

My guess is $2.36

[thedigger]

List $2.65 then 2-3 weeks run up to $2.80 - 2.95 after that I'm picking it will drop away.

[modandm]

Im thinking o/s demand will be stronger than many anticipate and it will trade up quickly. I applied for 20k, and may look to add in the first few days. My intention will be to sell out sometime in the first 6 months as long term this is likely to be a dull but rewarding stock. Personally I am more interested in stocks with significant upside over a 3-4 year horizon.

[CJ]

Yes, going to be largest number of shareholders of any company on the NZX. I saw an article yesterday saying that are expected over 100,000 shareholders. That is well short of the 220k (from memory) that were on the register wehn CEN floated, though most have sold out. If they get less than 220k (ie the CEN number) then it has been a failure - whether that blame is on N for their unpopular MoM or LG for their 'sabotage' will be debated for eternity.

Im thinking o/s demand will be stronger than many anticipate and it will trade up quickly. Stronger than originally anticipated? (which was huge) or subsequent to the LG bombshell (which suggestions say scared everyone off). It will be in the middle somewhere.

[robbo24]

2.80, you read it here first.

[QOH]

Is anyone going to "stag" it?
has anyone ever been chased by IRD for doing it?

[stanace]

Is anyone going to "stag" it?
has anyone ever been chased by IRD for doing it?

Yes, and no.

[ari]

Is anyone going to "stag" it?
has anyone ever been chased by IRD for doing it?
IRD still have to prove your intentions:-)

[Beagle]

IRD still have to prove your intentions:-)

And in that regard actions speak louder than words. Anyone selling really early won't have a leg to stand on as their intention at the time of investing is plainly obvious for anyone to see. If there's any profit for the stags and that's a big "IF", anyone taking it runs the risk.

I won't guess a price as there's so many question marks hanging over this company...

[777]

But if no one sells early then no one can buy early. Then the buy price increases until someone says "this higher than I thought it would go" so sells.

[Beagle]

Plenty of Insto's will sell if there's money on the table, to re-invest in subsequent floats or a better company.
Government are desperate for dollars...from the power floats and any subsequent methodologies available to them...and if there's a big stag somewhere they'll be like a Beagle dog at the airport..sniff, sniff...

[POSSUM THE CAT]

Roger I think you are right they will investigate every early sale that is not declared for profit as they have a lot more information than usual. As they wanted to know your share broker & your CSN on the preregistration form Unless it crashes then try & get a tax deduction for capital loss.

[noodles]

agreed, hence why I have avoided the thing altogether. a massive IRD information collection scheme. government isn't looking to raise only money from the share float here people! good luck to those who stag and expect to keep it tax free!

I think you are all being paranoid. National wants to keep it's rich voters happy so they buy on the next floats.

I did not participate, but would have happily paid tax on gains (as I did with FSF, TME)

[fungus pudding]

I think you are all being paranoid. National wants to keep it's rich voters happy so they buy on the next floats.

I did not participate, but would have happily paid tax on gains (as I did with FSF, TME)

Happily? I willingly pay my tax, but if it makes you happy then I suggest you just send them a cheque periodically anyway. No need to wait ill you make a profit. And if you like giving money away, then could I suggest there are several outfits that target their spending far better than the IRD.

[GTM 3442]

Happily? I willingly pay my tax, but if it makes you happy then I suggest you just send them a cheque periodically anyway. No need to wait ill you make a profit. And if you like giving money away, then could I suggest there are several outfits that target their spending far better than the IRD.

Fungus, if I pay tax, then I have made a profit. Making a profit makes me happy.

Ergo. . .

[emearg]

IRD still have to prove your intentions:-)

No they don't. The onus is on you to prove yours.

[Xerof]

Correct, and they won't chase until tax returns are filed for 2014 EOY, by which time you will have stagged the next few floats as well, and tried to get away with it, thinking they aren't checking!

i think those being cautious about this have the right attitude - these floats are a watershed moment for a more 'robust' tax regime enforcement

seller beware?

[Xerof]

My broker also tells me that NZX participants who manage custodial accounts are required to provide a full list of who these are held for, and the monthly movement. This is to be reported to Treasury so they can account for the cost of issuing the bonus shares in due course (obviously the 'cost' reduces as people sell), but this list could easily have another valuable benefit to the Crown.....

discl: I don't work for IRD

GO the Crusaders!

[noodles]

Happily? I willingly pay my tax, but if it makes you happy then I suggest you just send them a cheque periodically anyway. No need to wait ill you make a profit. And if you like giving money away, then could I suggest there are several outfits that target their spending far better than the IRD.

Yeah, "happily" is probably the wrong word. Especially as you end up paying it months after the windfall.

[stanace]

No they don't. The onus is on you to prove yours.

What about all my losses? Pike River springs to mind. Surely these can be offset?

[modandm]

agreed, hence why I have avoided the thing altogether. a massive IRD information collection scheme. government isn't looking to raise only money from the share float here people! good luck to those who stag and expect to keep it tax free!

thanks - il happily take my chances. Can't be a market if there are no sellers can there.

[Dubdee]

What about all my losses? Pike River springs to mind. Surely these can be offset?

Unfortunately the tax system can be asymmetric. You will only get a deduction for losses if you are a trader. This means all gains assessible, all losses deductible. Do you want to go there? If we get a capital gains tax its possible that capital accounts gains and losses might offset

[emearg]

What about all my losses? Pike River springs to mind. Surely these can be offset?

If you bought with the intention of trading them then yes you could offset them. Timeframe isn't relevant. It is all about intent.

Proving this intent is difficult so I think it is best to have a clear divide between trading shares and investment shares. I have one account for each.

[corpr8raider]

2.80, no stag.

[Beagle]

LOL Sparky, most likely they'll think you're just being a clown and ping you anyway.

Stag profits are academic at this stage anyway. Insto's will be setting the price with the book-build process, and will be happy to take a modest profit for future floats or investing in better, lower risk, or higher growth companies. The LG are out to destabilise the Govt so you can be sure they will be making more "noise" to gain political capital out of this and of course we have Rio Tinto trying to boost the value of their smelter to boost its capital value, (if any), too.

All this against a backdrop of zero growth in electricity consumption due to demand destruction caused by circa 80% power price increases over the last decade to the point now where many families struggle to pay their power bills. Why anyone would bother investing with these market dynamics and risks in a zero growth company, I'll never know, but I'm happy to put the popcorn on and watch with interest.

One other angle on this buying-back of assets people already own... Isn't that some sort of back-handed taxation of its own accord ??

On top of all that we have an unprecedented future supply of power scrip coming to the market over the next year. Big gains seem extremly unlikey to me so all this tax on stag gains talk, is probably completly irrelevant.

[fungus pudding]

Fungus, if I pay tax, then I have made a profit. Making a profit makes me happy.

Ergo. . .

Ergo nothing. The profit makes you happy. It doesn't follow that you feel any level of exuberance as you part with it to the IRD, albeit you may do so willingly. If it was the giving to IRD that caused the happiness you could simply go and work for them without pay; that would cut out all the trading nonsense and make you deliriously happy. Easy.

[CJ]

I predict an upsurge in holidays and home renovations requiring the liquidation of other assets to pay for them (eg, profits on the shares to pay for flights to Fiji and builders work).If this rain ever lets up, the painting of my house is about to start. No doubt the scaffolding will cost a lot more than expected.

Seriously now, I intend to hold for the long term and will probably sell down some of my other power assets to maintain balanced. However,

- if I dont get a big enough holding, I may sell down completely (or buy more)
- if I get to big a holding (not scaled), I may sell down some.
- if it shoots up well above $3, I may lock in what I view as 3-4 years worth of div yield for no risk

Moosie - a lot of us have a lot less to fear from the IRD than you. I am not surprised you dont want to get your name on any hot list, though you seem to be changing your habits a bit.

[biker]

2.45, with opening trades around 2.68 - 2.70

[devito]

$2.25 shoot to $3 then drift down to $1.50 over the next 3 years.

[troyvdh]

DeVito...have you considered the institutional factor about "having to hold"....the div stream may determine this also...cheers...if your right...good bye John and hello David for sure....

[RazorX]

if your right...good bye John and hello David for sure....

Nek minnit... there goes the economy

[BlackCross]

I'm not sure that there'll be much interest from international buyers from the Northern hemisphere - there are higher and more reliable dividend yields from many European and UK power companies and with the NZ$ being perceived as 15% overvalued the attraction of MRP at anything above 2.35 may be limited.

[Arbroath]

$2.40 book build, lists $2.55-2.60

[CJ]

Seem to have your foot on first base and trying to cover all the other ones with the rest of your body there CJ! Fair enough, it is your money and you can do with it what you will. I would definitely take capital gains if it does rocket upwards though based on Roger's quotes above and the zero growth factorYes and no. I have an intention to purchase and hold a set amount.

Unfortunately, due to scaling, I had to apply for more than I actually wanted. I also dont know the price I am going to get but I have an expected return which I expect to get from a regular dividend yeild.

Any time after my purchase, I am allowed to review my portfolio for asset weighting, and expected return/yield and adjust my portfolio accordingly. The fact that it may be very shortly after purchase is irrelevant. I can change my investments if my view of weighting, yeild or quality of stock changes. My investing is done through a separate entity (Trust owned company) to the house (different Trust) so the painting excuse doesn't actually work for me.

[iced]

No insto pool. I would also expect small retail investors to have relatively little scaling, and for scaling go up in tiers or something like that

[CJ]

If so, vastly unfair if the retail pool is too small and everyone doesn't get their full allocation!


No insto pool. I would also expect small retail investors to have relatively little scaling, and for scaling go up in tiers or something like thatEverything I read indicated there would be scaling but maybe I am mistaken. (hence the guaranteed to get $2k and those that preregister guaranted an extra 25% in scaling)

I am hoping for 60-70% of what I applied for. If I get more than this, but not everything, I may sell down to about 50% so the transaction cost is spread wider. Or I may keep if just over.

[glasszon]

Everything I read indicated there would be scaling but maybe I am mistaken. (hence the guaranteed to get $2k and those that preregister guaranteed an extra 25% in scaling)

I am hoping for 60-70% of what I applied for. If I get more than this, but not everything, I may sell down to about 50% so the transaction cost is spread wider. Or I may keep if just over.

If you read carefully they haven't actually guaranteed anything. It only states people who pre-register can get up to 25% more than people who don't, so in theory they can treat everyone the same if they wanted to. (Emphasis on the bolded part).

[CJ]

If you read carefully they haven't actually guaranteed anything. It only states people who pre-register can get up to 25% more than people who don't, so in theory they can treat everyone the same if they wanted to. (Emphasis on the bolded part).You are correct. My wording was inaccurate. The point being, they must be anticipating scaling if the have the ability to scale some investors less than others.

However, "anticipating" may have changed to "praying" following the L/G announcement.

[glasszon]

You are correct. My wording was inaccurate. The point being, they must be anticipating scaling if the have the ability to scale some investors less than others.

However, "anticipating" may have changed to "praying" following the L/G announcement.

Sorry, I thought we weren't on the same page so I pointed it out, not meant to be nitpicking.

I still think there will be scaling out of all this, given the negative publicity I just can't see them pricing the shares high enough that there will be no scaling and see the share tank 10% on first day. Politically it would give lots of ammo to Greens/Labour to go on the offensive if this happens.

[Beagle]

You are correct. My wording was inaccurate. The point being, they must be anticipating scaling if the have the ability to scale some investors less than others.

However, "anticipating" may have changed to "praying" following the L/G announcement.

Yeap I'd definitly agree with that latter sentiment. Talk about throwing a cat amoungst the pigeons !!
The Government can consider themselves extremly fortunate if they get $2 a share in my opinion.

[Alz99]

I applied on Friday and my money has still not been touched , tried to ring but the desk is closed till the 10th when you can ring and find if your allocation has been granted/approved

[lambton]

$2.35 issue price with 20% scaling for all - retail investors above $5,000.

[POSSUM THE CAT]

ALZ99 what time on friday were you after the closing time?

[Alz99]

ALZ99 what time on friday were you after the closing time?

about 3pm, prob missed out i always miss out on IPO's

[robbo24]

I applied on Friday and my money has still not been touched , tried to ring but the desk is closed till the 10th when you can ring and find if your allocation has been granted/approved

An associate of mine applied on Friday too. He thinks the money will come out overnight tonight because his workmate applied on Thursday and her money came out last night.

Seems rational to me.

[cammo]

I preregistered and bought friday at 3pm. money was gone at midnight! Not really into this share at all but figured id be a lemming in case mums and dads all wanna buy after the initial listing and it waltzes past 3$. Jump out before it blobbs back down to 2.08 and sits there til the election!

[robbo24]

I preregistered and bought friday at 3pm. money was gone at midnight! Not really into this share at all but figured id be a lemming in case mums and dads all wanna buy after the initial listing and it waltzes past 3$. Jump out before it blobbs back down to 2.08 and sits there til the election!

I like your confidence but nothing is a sure thing on the market.

Don't forget, the communist left of New Zealand thought 400,000 signatures were a sure thing when they started prematurely gloating about it... Now look:


The petition – promoted by Labour, the Greens and Grey Power – required 10 percent of eligible voters, or 308,753 signatures, to force a referendum. It only reached about 292,000, or 16,500 fewer than was needed, the Office of the Clerk said today. (http://www.nbr.co.nz/article/asset-sale-referendum-misses-threshold-amid-bogus-sign-ups-labour-vows-reach-target-bd-13974)

[iceman]

even worse the turkeys collected 400,000 signatures.... almost 25% were invalid!

http://www.kiwiblog.co.nz/2013/05/massive_fail_for_labour_and_greens.html

Common Sparky. They only spent $ 91,000 of "parliamentary funding" on it and have committed to spending more. Am I the only person in NZ to think using tax payers money assigned to "parliamentary expenditure" for this purpose is pure fraud? Why are they not charged for fraud ?

[fungus pudding]

Common Sparky. They only spent $ 91,000 of "parliamentary funding" on it and have committed to spending more. Am I the only person in NZ to think using tax payers money assigned to "parliamentary expenditure" for this purpose is pure fraud? Why are they not charged for fraud ?

They are allowed to spend it. They have a discretionary fund for that sort of thing. But you have to wonder how dopey and irresponsible they are with money when they have been told the govt. will ignore the poll anyway.

[CJ]

Pricing to be announced today. I think Paddy (3News) said it wasn't due to be announced till about 7pm tonight?

Do they announce the scaling as well or do we have to wait till Friday?

Anyone have an inside word on how the bookbuild is going. (PM me if you want me to post it anonymously)

[Anna Naum]

Pricing to be announced today. I think Paddy (3News) said it wasn't due to be announced till about 7pm tonight?

Do they announce the scaling as well or do we have to wait till Friday?

Anyone have an inside word on how the bookbuild is going. (PM me if you want me to post it anonymously)

From AFR Street Talk, well known as being where brokers place the feedback they want the market to hear anonymously.

Sources last night said Mighty River Power’s initial public offer bookbuild was “more than covered a long
way through the book”, however a final pricing decision would not be made until meetings this afternoon.
Mighty River Power’s joint lead managers – First NZ Capital/Credit Suisse, Goldman Sachs and Macquarie
Securities – launched the equity raising on Tuesday morning after months of marketing and meetings with
investors. Offers were being taken in in NZ5¢ increments from $NZ2.35 to $NZ2.80 a share, with the book
due to close at 10am AEST today.
While investors often do not show their hands until late in bookbuilds, early indications were that the deal
was likely to be covered up to at least $NZ2.60 a share.
The final decision rests with the vendor, the New Zealand government, which will meet with its advisers to
determine the outcome today.
While the bookbuild is only for institutional investors, it will also determine the price paid by prospective
retail investors. It makes it a politically charged decision and an important one given the government’s
intention to keep retail investors involved through the wider privatisation program.
At $NZ2.60 a share, the power generation and retailing company would list with 5 per cent dividend yield
which is a slight discount to its closest listed peer Contact Energy (which trades at about a 4.7 per cent
yield based on 2014 forecasts).
Australian investors are participating through the international share offer, which is worth around $NZ400
million to $NZ500million. The bulk of the shares will be subscribed by New Zealand retail and institutional
investors.
Mighty River Power is due to list on the New Zealand and Australian stock exchanges on Friday (on a
conditional and deferred settlement basis). The process will also be keenly watched by all six banks
shortlisted for New Zealand privatisations over the coming two years. Next up is the largest asset, Meridian
Energy, which could be floated later this year.

[CJ]

Not exactly sure but I guess with the book build, there is a price where it is oversubsribed, perfectly balanced at oversubscribed.

If the Govt chooses a price where it is oversubscribed, you wont get your full allocation - that ensures that there will be a good market on listing as some investors will want/need to buy more.

[Jay]

I would have thought it would go like this: Am I right ??

There are only a fixed number of shares on offer (say) 1000 shares - to keep numbers simple
Price decided on is $1.00 = $1 x 1000 shares = $1000
Applications total $2000 - (only could apply for a $ amount not a number of shares)
Therefore all aplications scaled by 50% - that is until the other "guarantees come in - In the MRP case, NZers applying for up to $2K will what they requested, which would mean some maybe scaled more than others -

[CJ]

I dont know the exact process but the different between MRP and GDT is GDT is trying to find the market price, MRP is just trying to determine an IPO price (normally below market price to ensure the IPO is 'successful').

Based on that picture, the Govt could choose to list it at the (say) round 5 price (ie. a lower price than market) rather than the market price found at Round 7. This means that everyones order isn't completely fulled (either scaled or some miss out entirely).

[Balance]

I dont know the exact process but the different between MRP and GDT is GDT is trying to find the market price, MRP is just trying to determine an IPO price (normally below market price to ensure the IPO is 'successful').

Based on that picture, the Govt could choose to list it at the (say) round 5 price (ie. a lower price than market) rather than the market price found at Round 7. This means that everyones order isn't completely fulled (either scaled or some miss out entirely).

Government's strategy is very clear - follow the Australian example when listing state owned businesses of giving as many shares as possible to the country's citizens and keep the institutional and offshore investors underweight so they are forced to buy in first week of listing.

All indicators are that this is what is happening.

[CJ]

Government's strategy is very clear - follow the Australian example when listing state owned businesses of giving as many shares as possible to the country's citizens and keep the institutional and offshore investors underweight so they are forced to buy in first week of listing.

All indicators are that this is what is happening.Completely the opposite to what Fonterra did from what I recall.

[ScrappyO]

$2.60 seems high.
http://www.interest.co.nz/news/64351/well-sourced-australian-media-reports-suggest-mighty-river-power-share-price-will-be-nz26

[CJ]

have got a link to exactly how the book is build is being executed?Some people just don't believe in magic

Refer pg 221 - 229

Or to paraphrase (actually a direct quote): "at the date of this Offer document no allocation decisions have been made" and then 8 more pages of BS to ensure that no one actually reads the full 250+pg document.

My interpretation is by now the Govt know how much, M&D want, NZ institutions want, Overseas institutions want, staff want, Iwi want. Following a few rounds of scotch, a bit of back patting, a bit of ass kissing saying how well they have done, they will just make it up and allocate it based on what they think is best politically while balancing the fact they do actually need as much money as possible, but remember in the back of their mind, if they dont get the full amount, they can now blame the Greens and Labour.

[Heffner]

$2.60 seems high.
http://www.interest.co.nz/news/64351/well-sourced-australian-media-reports-suggest-mighty-river-power-share-price-will-be-nz26

Interesting article thank you.

If there is scaling I am going to be hugely disappointed in this GOVT.

When they initially promoted this scheme, the language was that 90% would stay in Kiwi hands. If there is indeed 400 - 500million been taken up by international investors that translates on the most modest of numbers to be 22% in foreign ownership and 78% in kiwi ownership. There better be no scaling back with those kind of numbers!!

[bunter]

My guess - a lowish issue price - 2.45 - and plenty of shares for small investors. The government will want to see individual investors do well out of this.

[Jay]

I thought it was 85-90% to Kiwi investors, mind you once it lists there is no control on who buys except for the no one shareholder can have more than 10% I think it was

[Banksie]

The government promised 85-90% kiwi ownership (source:http://www.nbr.co.nz/article/mighty-river-power-share-offer-opens-today-ck-138629). If the shares go for $2.60 and $500m go to foreign investors - then by my calculation they have just made it.

49% = $1.78b so total value of MRP is ~$3.6b and $500m is around 14% of this.

[Master98]

The government promised 85-90% kiwi ownership (source:http://www.nbr.co.nz/article/mighty-river-power-share-offer-opens-today-ck-138629). If the shares go for $2.60 and $500m go to foreign investors - then by my calculation they have just made it.

49% = $1.78b so total value of MRP is ~$3.6b and $500m is around 14% of this.




My understanding is if about 15% ( or less )shares goes to overseas investors hand, no scaling back should incurred to nz retail investors, as key said new Zealander has the priority to buy, anyone correct me please.

[POSSUM THE CAT]

Jay one shareholder will have 51% shareholding did you not read the prospectous

[Master98]

No, I dont think that is correct. If for example foriegn investment equates to 10% ownership BUT Kiwi demand is significantly higher than what would amount to 90% ownership Kiwi investors could get scaled. Please correct me if I am wrong!

goverment hold 51% and 49% for sale, if nzs demands over 49% then scaling back happen, in other words if overseas got 15% or so, thats mean nzs demands is less than 49% and no scaling back, am i rigth?

[Master98]

The government has not committed to putting NZers completely at the head of the queue. They can sell up to 15% off shore regardless of the NZ demand.

can anyone correct it? if so nats totally b**T, this is nz asset why nzs can't have the priority to buy?

[CJ]

I might be wrong, but my understanding is NO. The government has not committed to putting NZers completely at the head of the queue. They can sell up to 15% off shore regardless of the NZ demand. Therefore they can (and probably will) sell 10-15% off shore, the remainder will go to Kiwi’s. If the remainder is oversubscribed there will be scaling. Please someone correct me if I am wrong.


can anyone correct it? if so nats totally b**T, this is nz asset why nzs can't have the priority to buy?The can allocate all 49% to overseas, they are not bound to anything.

However, Key said 85-90 would be in Kiwi hands so if he his bound to his word, only 15% max will be allocated overseas. Politically, it would be 10% so that it would creep up to 15% over time, not creep from 15 -> 20%.

[skid]

One reason would be that the govt may think they would get a better price with foreign investment in the mix--for better or worse

[POSSUM THE CAT]

they need to place a reasonable amount of shares in Australia to get an ASX listing which they want

[Arbroath]

www.ipredict.co.nz

80% chance of $2.36-2.50
20% chance of $2.51-2.65

be interesting to see if the punters are on the money so to speak....

[Jay]

Jay one shareholder will have 51% shareholding did you not read the prospectous

:) I was excluding that Shareholder, then again if you break it down it is really about 3 million shareholders, so I was right in the first place!

[CJ]

Calls the Australian FR a beat up to get a higher price: http://www.stuff.co.nz/business/industries/8647971/Market-may-resist-Mighty-River-talking-up

[biker]

Calls the Australian FR a beat up to get a higher price: http://www.stuff.co.nz/business/industries/8647971/Market-may-resist-Mighty-River-talking-up

Pretty obvious really. Speculative beat up. I think the more important issue for this one is where does it trade on listing. A fine balance between satisfying taxpayers and investors, but for this first one, the balance should tip in favour of investors, to secure solid interest in the bigger fish to fry down the track.

[biker]

2.50 it is.

[peat]

2:50 says Campbell

[Bunta]

I guessed right $2.50, more luck than skill

[QOH]

So when do the bidders in the book build actually front up with their $$$. ?
Are they likely to have the cash ready or will there be a bit of a sell off on NZX over next few days, will there
hopefully be a bounce when the retail investors receive their refunds for over subscriptions ?
Might be an interesting few days.

[Master98]

Finance Minister Bill English and State-Owned Enterprises Minister Tony Ryall today announced the price of Mighty River Power shares at $2.50.
A total of 113,000 New Zealanders will become shareholders in the company.
The ministers say 86.5 percent of the shares issued will be sold to New Zealanders and 13.5 percent to overseas investors.
3 News




Read more: Mighty River share price set at $2.50 - Story - Politics - 3 News http://www.3news.co.nz/Mighty-River-share-price-set-at-250/tabid/1607/articleID/297056/Default.aspx#ixzz2SgUxby5H

[biker]

So when do the bidders in the book build actually front up with their $$$. ?
Are they likely to have the cash ready or will there be a bit of a sell off on NZX over next few days, will there
hopefully be a bounce when the retail investors receive their refunds for over subscriptions ?
Might be an interesting few days.

Money due on Mon 13th I believe

[Schrodinger]

Good price. Will this track up to $3 in a few months?

[Arbroath]

Lists around $2.65 trades up to $2.70 IMO. We'll find out Friday

[newtrader]

Read more: Mighty River share price set at $2.50 - Story - Politics - 3 News http://www.3news.co.nz/Mighty-River-share-price-set-at-250/tabid/1607/articleID/297056/Default.aspx#ixzz2SgUxby5H

According to my own calculations, of the 1.4 billion shares, 26.9% (376.6 million shares) will be owned by New Zealand retail investors valued at $941.5 million at the price of $2.50.

$941.5 million shared between the 113k investors, that's about $8k per investor. It seems like there will be little scaling?

[troyvdh]

mmm Does it really matter ...at the end of day...what the price is....aint it more important what the whole outfit is worth....???? And surely the value is questionable.....................................

[JohnnyTheHorse]

Looks most retail investors have been allocated far more shares than they actually expected to get. I suspect there will be quite a bit of selling pressure as they sell the excess that they didn't actually want. Will still probably be some nice profits for those stagging though.

[zcyong]

Because of the level of demand, "some scaling has been necessary," said Ryall. "We have decided to apply progressive scaling, which means that larger applications are scaled more than smaller ones.”
“That means that more than 80 per cent New Zealanders will get what they applied for."
http://www.scoop.co.nz/stories/BU1305/S00292/mightyriver-shares-to-list-at-250-in-lower-half-of-target.htm

[minimoke]

so 113,000 kiwis paid an average of $8,2000 each for their shares. At $2.50 this was $0.30 more than I thought it would be. Institutional interest only bought 22% compared with Kiwis buying 27%. Assuming my dodgy math is right I read this as too many kiwis have more money than sense. I expect a fall back of price on listing - there is not a lot of institutional demand - it ought to have exceed Mom and Pop demand. The Instos had access to the hard data whereas Moms and Pops were taking a punt.

I reckon Kiwis may have hoped for a decent stag but will find they have put to much into MRP and will quit while they are ahead - until they see the price fall back.

$2.50 is too high - its around the middle of the expected range. But that range was put out prior to Labour Green announcement And before National found themselves on the insidious position of perhaps not having enough seats in parliament to continue their rule - Gilmore has thrown a spanner which proves the parlous state of National tenuous hold on the reigns of power.

If there was going to be insto demand to drive the price up we would have seen it in the book build it wasn't there. Nor will we see demand from Moms and Pops - they have already maxed out their cash at $8,200.

I have a hat which I'll eat if the price reaches $3.24. This is the price I had hoped to achieve ($2.70 plus 20%) on a stag prior to the Labour green announcement I'll eat half the hat if it goes $2.50 + 15%

[troyvdh]

cheers..belg...thanks...but surely this is "share market 101"....folk often make comment if a SP is blah blah...but surely that is irrelevant..the SP is a divisable of the number totally dependent on the value of what ever.....It aint rocket science ......I got 18 % in maths...but sure as hell I knew my arithmetic.....

[thedigger]

minimoke "I think you will be eating your hat" Lol

[troyvdh]

hum de hum of to bed I go....thanks for the feed back.....

[minimoke]

minimoke "I think you will be eating your hat" Lol
Maybe. And I'm figuring its not going to be as tasty as humble pie.

[Scrunch]

Maybe. And I'm figuring its not going to be as tasty as humble pie.

Minimoke, we like details, is the hat a typical Auzi style leather one with cork's, cloth, straw or something else like plastic? I'm going to be disappointed now if the shareprice hits a maximum of 287 :)

[minimoke]

Minimoke, we like details, is the hat a typical Auzi style leather one with cork's, cloth, straw or something else like plastic? I'm going to be disappointed now if the shareprice hits a maximum of 287 :)

I'm putting in some practice tonight!

http://forum-img.pinside.com/pinball/forum/?bb_attachments=147927&bbat=16886&inline

[BlackCross]

SOE Minister Tony Ryall said ....."The demand from institutional investors was strong, and bids from both New Zealand and offshore institutions were scaled considerably..."

[minimoke]

SOE Minister Tony Ryall said ....."The demand from institutional investors was strong, and bids from both New Zealand and offshore institutions were scaled considerably..."
Love the spin. 80% of the 114,000 got what they wanted. 20% who had more than $8,000 average to spend got theirs scaled back. I reckon a scaling back to $5,000 a person would have been politically palatable. So I don't think demand by instos was that great.

The other side of that statement ought to be " demand from moms and pops wasn't strong with less than 25% of those who pre registered actually buying.

[robbo24]

SOE Minister Tony Ryall said ....."The demand from institutional investors was strong, and bids from both New Zealand and offshore institutions were scaled considerably..."

Similar circumstances to the FSF IPO, if I remember correctly there was a relatively short supply at the opening price and it started climbing a fair way upwards after that. It listed at 550 cents and now it's at like 800 cents?

[robbo24]

2:50 says Campbell

I was trying to listen to what Ryall was saying about access to equity or capital or something but Campbell kept on talking over top of the live feed..

[bonne vie]

What company will get knocked off the NZX 50 on Friday when MRP lists? I know I read somewhere on this forum where to find this info - but no luck. T

[iceman]

I was trying to listen to what Ryall was saying about access to equity or capital or something but Campbell kept on talking over top of the live feed..

Same here robbo24.. Campbell announced at the beginning of the show he would be crossing live. Then they played ads right through English's speech and he spoke over the top of Ryall. What a useless piece of journalism !

[CJ]

I was trying to listen to what Ryall was saying about access to equity or capital or something but Campbell kept on talking over top of the live feed..


Same here robbo24.. Campbell announced at the beginning of the show he would be crossing live. Then they played ads right through English's speech and he spoke over the top of Ryall. What a useless piece of journalism !I couldn't agree more!!!

[CJ]

Is there any actual detail on scaling.

80% get all they applied for so I assume the cut off is higher than $2k.

[CJ]

This thread was set up to pick the IPO price so:

considering all we have is a guess. ill say $2.45-2.50


$2.50
$2.95 by end of day
Tosspot took the easy option of using a range so Bunta was the first to name the exact price

[CJ]

Anyone still looking at staging this puppy? Will be watching in earnest tomorrow at opening but don't think I'll participate. I'm happy enough with the fact my Kiwisaver fund will probably be invested in it :)I read O/S instos only got 30% of what they applied for.

[lambton]

Is there any actual detail on scaling.

80% get all they applied for so I assume the cut off is higher than $2k.

Article in Dominion made mention that retail investors would get up to $15,000 worth. Scaling progressively beyond that amount.

[Alz99]

my funds still havn't been taken out of my account but i see they took $20 for insuffecient funds due to the fact that my money hadn't been cleared, what a crack of ****, typical govenment wonder if i can get ASB to sort it out

[CJ]

And yet Labour and their supporters are playing up that "95% of Kiwi's lost their investment". That's a huge scaling back and I hope the government plays it up to their advantage. I think Labour is constantly pandering to the lowest common denominator in making them think the government is selling 100% and losing its dividend, not 49% as well. People aren't that dumb though after the re-education most have received over the past year or so...Alternative arguments -

Only 2.5% of Kiwis want to be invested in power companies so why the hell is the government investing in them on our behalf :0

Or 100,000 M&D investors, assuming they have the standard 2.5 children is actually 450k new owners on the basis the investment was made on behalf of the family.

Or, L/G scared off 300k M&D investors

[fungus pudding]

my funds still havn't been taken out of my account but i see they took $20 for insuffecient funds due to the fact that my money hadn't been cleared, what a crack of ****, typical govenment wonder if i can get ASB to sort it out

Why blame the govt? It was ASB that charged you $20. It was your responsibility to ensure you had clear funds when you applied for the shares.

[Jay]

I would say you have missed out Alz99 as FP said need to make sure you have sufficient (cleared) funds in the relevant account

[Alz99]

Why blame the govt? It was ASB that charged you $20. It was your responsibility to ensure you had clear funds when you applied for the shares.

yeah i guess funds still clearing from a atm sale, sign from the gods perhaps, so i miss out and get raped a twenty lol awesome:t_up:

[Anonymous]

So no scaling for applications under $15k. I hope too many people didn't apply for more than they wanted in anticipation of scaling. I suspect this will not be quite the stag I was hoping for.

[devito]

When do we know how many shares we got? Do they email us or do we have to wait for the Compshare statement?

[CJ]

So no scaling for applications under $15k. I hope too many people didn't apply for more than they wanted in anticipation of scaling. I suspect this will not be quite the stag I was hoping for.Where is this info from?

[J R Ewing]

So no scaling for applications under $15k. I hope too many people didn't apply for more than they wanted in anticipation of scaling. I suspect this will not be quite the stag I was hoping for.

I think it will be quite a good stag. Most retail investors won't be selling immediately especially with the bonus shares on offer. If the overseas instos got scaled back to 30%, that means plenty of buyers and not too many sellers.

My pick is $2.75

[Anonymous]

Where is this info from?

Craigs have it in their daily report this morning. Sorry I can't link as it is an email. I can only assume they are accurate in their info.

[Anonymous]

I think it will be quite a good stag. Most retail investors won't be selling immediately especially with the bonus shares on offer. If the overseas instos got scaled back to 30%, that means plenty of buyers and not too many sellers.

My pick is $2.75

Yeah, maybe instos got scaled harder to allow m&d investors to get their full allocation and given that instos are the market movers anyway and m&d are irrelevant then probably this is all good still for a stag.

[fungus pudding]

When do we know how many shares we got? Do they email us or do we have to wait for the Compshare statement?

It will be posted on the website on Friday, presumably accessed with your MRP number.

[newtrader]

Where is this info from?

Bill English says applications up to $15k will not be scaled back.

http://www.3news.co.nz/Mighty-River-Power-86pct-NZ-owned--for-now/tabid/370/articleID/297094/Default.aspx

[NZSilver]

Allocations expected to be available
Expected commencement of trading on NZX Main Board (conditional settlement basis) and ASX (conditional and deferred settlement basis)



What does this mean? conditional trading?

[NZSilver]

MRP.NZX $3.40...? weird,

[fungus pudding]

MRP.NZX $3.40...? weird,

That'll be Russell Norman's buy order - finally realised he should have been in perhaps?

[CJ]

HoHum! ... I am extremely disappointed at such low figure when foreigners got so many!
How heavy was the scaling for applications over $15k.

Rumour is the overseas institutions got heavily scaled - 30% of applications.

[troyvdh]

Got my number and receipt but they aint taken my dosh yet...anyone else same ?.
Sorry if this has been discussed before cheers.

[J R Ewing]

This is supposed to be how the scaling works:

Pre-reg applicants

Up to $15k 100%
$15k-$20k $15k plus 80% of application above $15k
$20k-$50k $19k plus 75% of application above $20k
$50k+ $41.5k plus 53% of application above $50k

Non Pre-reg applicants (20% less the same size pre-reg applicant, subject to minimum of $2k)
Up to $2k 100%
$2k-$2.5k $2k
$2.5k-$15k $2k plus 80% of application above $2.5k
$15k-$20k $12k plus 64% of application above $15k
$20k-$50k $15.2k plus 60% of application above $20k
$50k+ $33.2k plus 42.4% of application above $50k

So I don't think anyone should be too upset about the scaling, especially if they pre-registered.

[ratkin]

[QUOTE=J

So I don't think anyone should be too upset about the scaling, especially if they pre-registered.[/QUOTE]

I am , now have far more than i wanted !! . it better be a goodie

[lambton]

This is supposed to be how the scaling works:

Pre-reg applicants

Up to $15k 100%
$15k-$20k $15k plus 80% of application above $15k
$20k-$50k $19k plus 75% of application above $20k
$50k+ $41.5k plus 53% of application above $50k

Non Pre-reg applicants (20% less the same size pre-reg applicant, subject to minimum of $2k)
Up to $2k 100%
$2k-$2.5k $2k
$2.5k-$15k $2k plus 80% of application above $2.5k
$15k-$20k $12k plus 64% of application above $15k
$20k-$50k $15.2k plus 60% of application above $20k
$50k+ $33.2k plus 42.4% of application above $50k

So I don't think anyone should be too upset about the scaling, especially if they pre-registered.

Thanks JR - useful to know how the scaling has worked for retail investors. I outsmarted myself by not asking for more than $12k thinking I was wasting my time applying for more and tying funds up unnecessarily. Could have had more, damm.

[lambton]

Have been thinking that if MRP flys over the next 12 months then there is going to be a lot of pi33ed off Mums and Dads who will feel cheated out of the gain that they might have shared in if not for the Labour Greens attack scaring them off. He he guess who they are going to blame. National now has an incentive to do all it can to make sure MRP is in fact a winner.

[devito]

It will be posted on the website on Friday, presumably accessed with your MRP number.
Thanks Fungus Pudding

[J R Ewing]

I am , now have far more than i wanted !! . it better be a goodie

That might make both you and the IRD happy come Friday!

[Snoopy]

So I don't think anyone should be too upset about the scaling, especially if they pre-registered.


Well I am upset, because I didn't get all the shares I asked for and overseas institutions were given the balance of the shares I did ask for!

I suppose Mr Key would say he put NZers at the front of the queue and when the lolly bag was full he patted them on the head and sent them away. In my case, I went to the back of the queue, behind Key's institutional mates from overseas. Then when I got up the the front of the queue again, with: "Please Sir, could I have what I asked for?", the porridge pot was bare. I don't want to sound greedy here, because my belly was full when I came back for the hand out I asked for. But Key's institutional mates had far fuller bellies than I did!

My main point is this. I offered to buy MRP shares and keep them in NZ. Key chose to give them to his mates overseas who had no other attachment to those MRP shares other than to make a buck at the expense of another countries citizens. I could have forgiven Key if he had offered some shares to Chilean institutions, where MRP are doing their geothermal drilling. But I wonder how many MRP shares went to Chile? I would guess most of those overseas allocations will end up in Australia where MRP is listed. But why is MRP listed in Australia? They conduct no business there at all that I could see in the prospectus. IMO, Mighty River should never have been listed there. So now NZ dividends will be sent offshore when there was plenty of appetite for those shares to remain in NZ ownership in New Zealand.

I think the allocation of the MRP shares is an election promise broken to NZ taxpayers.

SNOOPY

[Snoopy]

JR Ewing wrote:
"So I don't think anyone should be too upset about the scaling, especially if they pre-registered."

I am , now have far more than i wanted !! . it better be a goodie


You asked for what you wanted ratkin, and the government gave it to you. If you don't like that result, I can only see one person to blame.

SNOOPY

[bull....]

not sure what i got to tomorrow morning , looking for price to head to 2.80 - $3 based on 2014 fundamentals would be surprised if the stock doesnt do good as who gonna buy into the next issue if this burns everyone.

[iceman]

Well I am upset, because I didn't get all the shares I asked for and overseas institutions were given the balance of the shares I did ask for!

I suppose Mr Key would say he put NZers at the front of the queue and when the lolly bag was full he patted them on the head and sent them away. In my case, I went to the back of the queue, behind Key's institutional mates from overseas. Then when I got up the the front of the queue again, with: "Please Sir, could I have what I asked for?", the porridge pot was bare. I don't want to sound greedy here, because my belly was full when I came back for the hand out I asked for. But Key's institutional mates had far fuller bellies than I did!

My main point is this. I offered to buy MRP shares and keep them in NZ. Key chose to give them to his mates overseas who had no other attachment to those MRP shares other than to make a buck at the expense of another countries citizens. I could have forgiven Key if he had offered some shares to Chilean institutions, where MRP are doing their geothermal drilling. But I wonder how many MRP shares went to Chile? I would guess most of those overseas allocations will end up in Australia where MRP is listed. But why is MRP listed in Australia? They conduct no business there at all that I could see in the prospectus. IMO, Mighty River should never have been listed there. So now NZ dividends will be sent offshore when there was plenty of appetite for those shares to remain in NZ ownership in New Zealand.

I think the allocation of the MRP shares is an election promise broken to NZ taxpayers.

SNOOPY

Are you advocating we should have a complete foreign ownership restriction on MRP Snoopy ?

I am happy with my lot and think they have found a reasonably fair balance but of course its impossible to make everyone happy, however you do it.
MRP has received a reasonably good price for the Government which still holds 51% and after the IPO 87% of the Company's shares remain with NZ owners.

[J R Ewing]

Well I am upset, because I didn't get all the shares I asked for and overseas institutions were given the balance of the shares I did ask for!

SNOOPY

I am guessing that you applied via the book build rather than the pre-registration? How would you have run the book build and set the price?

[Snoopy]

Are you advocating we should have a complete foreign ownership restriction on MRP Snoopy ?


No. I am advocating that foreigners should be allowed to pick up any demand that is not satisfied by New Zealanders. And I am advocating that if foreigners want to buy shares, they can do so "on the marke"t if the foreign allocation cupboard was stripped bare at float time.



I am happy with my lot and think they have found a reasonably fair balance but of course its impossible to make everyone happy, however you do it.
MRP has received a reasonably good price for the Government which still holds 51% and after the IPO 87% of the Company's shares remain with NZ owners.


Impossible to keep everyone happy, yes. But it was possible to keep the election promise of putting NZers at the front of the queue.

SNOOPY

[Snoopy]

I am guessing that you applied via the book build rather than the pre-registration?


No, I applied for my shares via pre-registration.



How would you have run the book build and set the price?


Exactly as it was run, but with NZ institutions setting the price, not overseas ones.

SNOOPY

[iceman]

But it was possible to keep the election promise of putting NZers at the front of the queue.
SNOOPY

I would say they have kept that election promise pretty well but of course we can all interpret it differently and split hairs. For an election promise, I give them 8 out of 10 on that one :)

[Arbroath]

National has clearly kept their word here...86.5% NZ owned, 85% was the minimum spoken of publicly. Retail investors got bigger allocations in this float than any similarly large NZ float in living memory. Off shore was restricted to 30% of their demand. I got approx 75% of what I applied for and small Mum's and Dad's got 100% of what they asked for.

It's a fact of life that institutions are going to be allocated some stock. If NZ has given offshore no allocation what would happen when Meridian, a much larger sale, is on the block in a few months and NZ Retail can't meet the supply - would the foreigners want to buy in that environment and would it cost the government in terms of price? You can't keep everyone happy but this float has IMO been better managed than most.

Snoopy - I'm sure you'll get a few more bites at the cherry.

[bull....]

It'll be interesting to see how many pre-registered but, due to admin stuff ups, only get allocated non pre-registered amounts. e.g. those who pre-registered and identified their broker and the broker handled it from there on.

a broker should have had your URN this identified you as pre registered

[robbo24]

What does conditional trading mean? Does it mean I can assume that my amount under $15,000 worth can be divided by 2.5, and I can sell that number of shares?

10 May 2013
Allocations expected to be available
Expected commencement of trading on NZX Main Board (conditional settlement basis) and ASX (conditional and deferred settlement basis).
14 May 2013
Allotment date. Expected despatch of holding statements and last day of conditional trading.
15 May 2013Shares expected to begin trading on a normal basis on the NZX Main Board and the ASX.

http://www.scoop.co.nz/stories/BU1305/S00295/mighty-river-power-share-offer-final-price-set-at-250.htm

[BlackCross]

Any idea what the score is if an individual applied for more than $15,000 - say $20,000?
Would they get $15,000 worth plus a reduced allocation of the remaining $5,000 or would the whole application be down scaled?

[777]

Any idea what the score is if an individual applied for more than $15,000 - say $20,000?
Would they get $15,000 worth plus a reduced allocation of the remaining $5,000 or would the whole application be down scaled?

An explanation in post #161

[Anonymous]

What does conditional trading mean? Does it mean I can assume that my amount under $15,000 worth can be divided by 2.5, and I can sell that number of shares?

Conditional settlement means that trades wont be settled until a certain condition is met. In this case:

Commencement of Trading on the NZX Main Board: 12.30pm, 10 May 2013 on a conditional settlement basis until the Crown has advised NZX that completion under the Offer Management Agreement has occurred, which is expected to be on or about 14 May 2013.

See bottom of: https://www.nzx.com/regulators/NZXR/announcements/235854

I think you can safely assume that your holding will be your application amount divided by 2.5 (for < $15k applications). To be sure you just need to log on to Computershare and check your holding which I believe you can do from tomorrow am.

[Master98]

I called mighty river this afternoon,I was told holding check will be available 9am tomorrow from https://www.mightyrivershares.govt.nz/ only.

[Stu]

Asked for $35000 and got $31000 so pleased with that.

[iceman]

The expected allocations for sample application amounts are set out in the table below. Individual allocations may differ for a number of reasons (including for example, if the payment received was less than the amount you applied for or if you made multiple applications).

Application Amount Shares Allocated (if pre-registered) Shares Allocated (if not pre-registered)
$1,000 400 400
$2,000 800 800
$5,000 2,000 1,600 ($1,000 refunded)
$10,000 4,000 3,200 ($2,000 refunded)
$15,000 6,000 4,800 ($3,000 refunded)
$20,000 7,600 ($1,000 refunded) 6,080 ($4,800 refunded)
$50,000 16,600 ($8,500 refunded) 13,280 ($16,800 refunded)

If the difference between the dollar amount of shares for which you applied, and the value of the shares you received is more than the $2.50 final share price, this difference will be refunded to you. Refunds will be paid between 17 and 21 May 2013.

Mighty River Power Securities Transaction Statements are expected to be mailed on 14 May 2013.

[minimoke]

I see CEN and TPW are still running at a discount of 3 - 4% off their price when LG made their announcement. I'm not sure the market has fully recovered and is as positive with energy stocks as some are hoping for. TPW took a further hit today and CEN a slight one - not a huge vote of confidence there.

[Alf]

Snoopy, I agree with the sentiment that overseas investors/institutions should have been made to wait and buy on market, however smarter minds than mine decided otherwise (and they may be right). One thing though - Arbroath -, NZ currently owns 93.something% of this company don't they? Foreigners have got 13.5% of the 49% floated. The gummint still has that 51%. Am I correct in this?

[Baaarney]

being a smaller investor ($5k) I am pleased to have received all I asked for, but share concerns about the scaling of NZ institutions at the expense of overseas ones. I would have preferred that preference was given to NZ institutions.presumably these institutions (ie. my kiwisaver provider) will now have to pay a premium for them when trading starts tomorrow

[Arbroath]

Hi Alf. Overseas Instos got about 27% of the shares the Government has sold so own 13.5% of the total company. The argument for only selling to locals fail on the logic that NZ Inc probably would've paid $2.30 say and that would leave NZ taxpayers much worse off than if foreigners are allowed to add the price tension. Of course as its turned out if Labour had just told the Greens to stop being a bunch of tosses NZ Inc could've bought 100% at $2.50

[tango]

Does anyone know if family trusts are eligible for bonus shares? Or does that only apply to individual investors?

[777]

Does anyone know if family trusts are eligible for bonus shares? Or does that only apply to individual investors?

Don't see why not as the shares are held by the trustees who are individuals.

[Master98]

Interesting article :
"Former member of National and the Green Party Chris Marshall is one of 113,000 New Zealanders who bought shares in the company.
An experienced investor, he opposes asset sales but says he wanted to help keep the shares in New Zealand hands.
"This does look like a good share investment, because it's blue chip it's got a six percent dividend," says Mr Marshall."




Read more: Mighty River Power share price expected to rise - Story - Business - 3 News http://www.3news.co.nz/Mighty-River-Power-share-price-expected-to-rise/tabid/421/articleID/297175/Default.aspx#ixzz2Sn3V5bOZ

[tango]

Don't see why not as the shares are held by the trustees who are individuals.

That's what I was thinking, but it's not clear. The email said individual investors but the trustees are individuals...

I'm thinking of keeping 5,000 shares for long term growth and selling off the balance. There's too much uncertainty to keep all the shares long term.

Does anyone here plan to keep their shares or is everyone hoping to make a quick profit?

[janner]

That's what I was thinking, but it's not clear. The email said individual investors but the trustees are individuals...

I'm thinking of keeping 5,000 shares for long term growth and selling off the balance. There's too much uncertainty to keep all the shares long term.

Does anyone here plan to keep their shares or is everyone hoping to make a quick profit?

Hmmm.. A case of the sky is falling ..

Did you buy after doing your own research Tango.. Or .. Just to make a quick profit.. ???..

Your honest answer to " yourself " will tell you what to do ..

[janner]

Maybe I should drop the Hmmm and replace it with ..

Aah!!!.. Little Cricket !!.. :-))

[tango]

Maybe I should just start rolling my eyes now. Talk about patronising...

[iceman]

Does anyone know if family trusts are eligible for bonus shares? Or does that only apply to individual investors?

Yes definitely family trusts are included tango. I double checked this for our family trust. We intend to be long term holders.

[iceman]

Interesting comment reported in the Herald today
" Andrew Bascand, managing director at Harbour Asset Management, said the demand during the book-building phase was such that offshore institutions "could have bought all three potential gentailers in one swoop".

[CJ]

Does anyone know if family trusts are eligible for bonus shares? Or does that only apply to individual investors?I confirmed with ASB that my Trust owned company operating through a Nominee account (margin lending) was eligible so a normal family trust should be fine.

[Balance]

The word is - $2.70 listing price when you compare MRP to Contact and Trustpower.

Have not bothered to check numbers - heard it yesterday.

[CJ]

a bit scizhophrenic with the parties there eh chris?!A lot of politicians seem to follow Tim Shadbolts motto "I dont care where, as long as I am Mayor"

Just look at the Greens leaders for their political backgrounds. Likewise, Act was set up by former Labour members, with its ranks then filled with former National members (Hide, Brash, Banks). Winnie is former National. Maori party split from Labour(?).

An now we have Happy Gilmore, the independant list MP - go figure.

[CJ]

The word is - $2.70 listing price when you compare MRP to Contact and Trustpower.If so, they got the price about right - between 5 -10% pop.

I think the interesting thing will be if they do decide to list Meridian next, do they have enough retail demand to ensure overseas instos only get 15% or less. It is twice the size and looking at the scaling on MRP, retail investors were close to tapped out. They must be hoping MRP goes well as they need to entice all the M&D investors that L/G scared off.

Having said that, I registered in 4 different names but decided to invest just in one as scaling wasn't going to be significant so maybe others did the same (ie. only used 1 of their multiple pre-registrations)

[Balance]

My own pick is that the overseas investors will pay up to 5% yield so price will reach $3.00 over next 6 months.

Same logic as with FSF.

:D :D :D

[777]

With no one above it or below it then it won't/can't go anywhere.

[CJ]

Just thought about it now, and it seems so blindingly obvious, but if everyone is cashed-in at $2.50 and no one above or below that with no negative news to drive the share price, there is only one way the market will logically go, which is upwards. Am I right?IN theory, agree that no one would be looking to sell below $2.50 but if there are no buy offers, those who planned to stag may cut their losses and move to greener pastures (not a fonterra reference)

[Doyle]

Can we check our allocation online? or do we need to call?

[fungus pudding]

Can we check our allocation online? or do we need to call?

You can check online apparently.

[minimoke]

Two questions.
Why does direct broking show last sale price as $3.40. This is very misleading!
Why buy mrp with a pe of 27 when you can pick up cen at a pe of 19 or tpw at 17?

[777]

Good buying interest now at 280.

[Toasty]

Looking at the DB bid list makes me think I should have grabbed a few.

[Doyle]

You can check online apparently.

Thanks but the site is so slow now it;s pointless trying. Anyone have the number written down as I can't even get that off the website. Starting to think Chorus may be a good investment with all these SOE sales coming up to increase the trraffic.

[Hoop]

Good buying interest now at 280.

Support levels seem to be at 2.80 2.65/2.67 and base support at 2.60...staggers will be disappointed methinks.

Disc: hold none

http://i458.photobucket.com/albums/qq306/Hoop_1/mrp1.png (http://s458.photobucket.com/user/Hoop_1/media/mrp1.png.html)

[Blendy]

BECAUSE IT'S HERE AND IT'S NOW AND IT'S EXCITING AND IT MIGHT BE DIFFERENT THIS TIME!!! :eek2::scared::cursing::drool::lol::blush:

*Puts Quadruple Latte down and slows heartbeat*


haha moosie, you crack me up!

[tosspot]

how can you guys see depth. when you search asb securities the MRP code doesnt even show up must just be on direct broking

[CJ]

how can you guys see depth. when you search asb securities the MRP code doesnt even show up must just be on direct broking
It doesnt come up in the drop down search but just push enter and it will be there on the ASB website.

[Xerof]

Its on ASB

just type it in and add to your watchlist

2.80 is current sweetspot for opening price 750k each way

[777]

Only those who deal with DB can see depth. You have to sign into your account. Would assume ASB was the same.

[tosspot]

haha what fool is selling his shares at $2.51 hopefully he removes that before listing time

[Anonymous]

Thanks but the site is so slow now it;s pointless trying. Anyone have the number written down as I can't even get that off the website. Starting to think Chorus may be a good investment with all these SOE sales coming up to increase the trraffic.

I had no problem at all checking my holding online at https://www.mightyrivershares.govt.nz/ You need all the info you applied with includin bank a/c # and unique code to check though. I also said yesterday that you could check at Computershatre online which appears to be wrong. Sorry about that.

[minimoke]

The last sale price was $2.50. how can $3.40 not be misleading?

[modandm]

those in it for the short term (myself included) won't be silly enough to sell on day 1. Give it 2-3 months to settle in and I would be amazed if $3.00 hasn't been cracked. Thats a pretty low risk 20% return over a short space of time.

Those who didn't buy in will be kicking themselves - this was always a no brainer for me -even as a pretty diciplined FA guy, i didn't even read the prospectus. That said I will only get a small allocation (applied for 20k) so it never made sense to over analyse this one.

[777]

haha what fool is selling his shares at $2.51 hopefully he removes that before listing time


They will sell at the match price.

[CJ]

They will sell at the match price.NOt exactly a big stag though - only ~2k shares.

[Newman]

Who knows the code for Mighty River Power on Australian stock exchange?

[QOH]

who knows the code for mighty river power on australian stock exchange?

myt ..........

[Shall0w]

Hmm anyone else have issues when applying online? I couldn't enter my CSN as its only 8 digits (webform wanted 9) and the helpline told me to just say I didn't have one and it would be matched up later.. but now looking on the MRP site I have a completely new CSN... :confused:

[pierre]

Looking at the Depth on Direct Broking it appears that the first MRP sales will go through when the market opens at 12:30pm at 280. I guess most punters will be reasonably happy with that as the start price.

[Banksie]

but now looking on the MRP site I have a completely new CSN... :confused:

I believe you will have to request for them to be transferred to your existing CSN. Not sure of the process - maybe one of the other forumites has some insight.

[glasszon]

I believe you will have to request for them to be transferred to your existing CSN. Not sure of the process - maybe one of the other forumites has some insight.

Just out of interest, wouldn't doing that means you will lose your entitlement to the bonus shares?

[newtrader]

Just out of interest, wouldn't doing that means you will lose your entitlement to the bonus shares?

That is an interesting point. I also have been allocated a new CSN for the MRP shares. I presume if you move your holdings from the other CSN to the new CSN, it should still be okay?

[CJ]

Just out of interest, wouldn't doing that means you will lose your entitlement to the bonus shares?
I was advised by ASB that I could invest in my own name (CSN number) then transfer to their nominee account and that it would still be entitled to bonus shares. They said they could prove the shares were still held by the same person.

In this case, there would probably be a form prior to the loyalty share issue for you to complete to prove they are the same (or Computershare may do that for you if you merge the CSN)

[Banksie]

Just out of interest, wouldn't doing that means you will lose your entitlement to the bonus shares?

My wife did not receive her CSN from ASB securities in time for the offer. She was told over the phone that she wouldn't lose her bonus shares when she transferred.

[POSSUM THE CAT]

Shall0w (http://www.sharetrader.co.nz/member.php?12281-Shall0w) I think you are mixing up what you thought was your CSN with something else As CSN have always been Nine numbers from the time they were introduced. Telephone the share registry that originally issued it to you.

[Shall0w]

Hmm, I was checking all my computershare statements and they all show an 8 digit CSN? Might give them a call then.

EDIT: turns out a computershare CSN is just a holder number for that company, not a true CSN. They said once the allotments are out next week they can amalgamate the two for me. I'll be triple checking to ensure the loyalty bonus is not affected!

[QOH]

Would have been more fun in days gone by watching the trading room and chalkies. just not the same watching computer screen.

[pierre]

Interesting that Contact is now only about 2.5% below its recent high after plummeting to a low of 512 after the Labour/Green announcement.

[tobo]

allocation.
I understand everyone that applied for large amounts will end up with the same amount as each other.
Presume it is not a fixed % of everything over $2k.
Anyone care to tell us how many you got, and what you applied for. (I can't look cos all my info is at home.)

[ari]

That's nice Direct Broking...looks like no 20min delay +.21

[tobo]

and dropping.
2.68
Still all good

[Shall0w]

I did 3 small parcels $2500, $2500 and $1000 and got all I applied for. Seemed easier to guarantee getting what I wanted. Will amalgamate them in a few years once the loyalty shares come through (except for the $1k that was bought for my toddler).

[Doyle]

The share volume of shares trading is surprising me. $55Mil and counting.

[Balance]

The share volume of shares trading is surprising me. $55Mil and counting.

In a good IPO, expect 10% of shares to trade on first day!

[Nigel]

Oops. I just bought $20k of Macphersons Resources (ASX: MRP). Bugger.

[Banksie]

That's nice Direct Broking...looks like no 20min delay +.21
Same on ASB securities, looks like live prices and depth.

[NZSilver]

Nigel -

bahahahah,

that was a bit silly!

But we all make mistakes now and then, we are only human after all.

[CJ]

Oops. I just bought $20k of Macphersons Resources (ASX: MRP). Bugger.Classic

Pretty cheap at 23c

[Nigel]

Confession time - I didn't really but any ASX:MRP. Just having a laugh.

[kiwitrev]

Average trade to date is 50k so looks like instos and international buyers getting into the action though SP
has dropped off a little. Not a subscriber but interested bystander. My money is working elsewhere at a higher
premium.

[POSSUM THE CAT]

Nigel at A quick look it could be well worth more research MRP.AX

[Toasty]

Nigel at A quick look it could be well worth more research MRP.AX

I wonder if they have had a surge in volume due to mistakes and people suddenly stumbling over it and taking an interest?

[POSSUM THE CAT]

Moosie 900 I am not normally interested in beaten up miners, out of my area of interest or expertise but a quick look at the latest announcement. Made me think it could be worth a look at by somebody with a good mining knowledge.

[lou]

What are people's stagging strategies?
Sell at IPO, sell at close, sell 5 days later, sell 30days later?
Not just MRP but other IPO's as well.
Or a conditonial strategy, if this this then that?

[troyvdh]

turmeric...your obviously a half full kinda guy.....the SP aint exactly gathering pace....

more sellers than buyers ?

[ari]

The breakdown of sellers shows large parcels, so who is doing the selling??
Not traded but lined up to sell.

[minimoke]

A few more minutes and we'll see what the Ozzie's make of it. So far I'm underwhelmed.

[CJ]

A few more minutes and we'll see what the Ozzie's make of it. So far I'm underwhelmed.Which means it was priced right? Gave a little value away to ensure liquidity but not enough that they wasted value.

[glasszon]

Maybe minimoke is comparing it to the FSF listing where the share price really fly.

[Beagle]

Congrats to all who had the courage to invest against the backdrop of L/G and Rio Tinto's shenanigans. I don't rate the company, think the PE is too high for an environment of zero electricity comsumption growth and believe next years profit target is unlikely to be achieved, but credit where its due to those who see it otherwise. I hope the IRD leaves anyone taking such a small profit as a stag alone, (surely they deserve to be left in peace to enjoy their modest profit for all the risks involved).

[minimoke]

Maybe minimoke is comparing it to the FSF listing where the share price really fly. as I recall I took 20% when cen listed. They listed at $3.1 and above the indicitive range and went on to make 8% on day one and 15% in first few days. Edison paid a premium to the tax payer by paying $5.00.

[Billy Boy]

Whats the ticker for MRP on the ASX
tks in advance
BB

[777]

MYT for Australia


More up to date trading numbers on

http://www.stocknessmonster.com


than on DB

[Banksie]

Less than stellar results for TrustPower:

"TrustPower’s consolidated profit after tax was $123.4 million for the year ended 31 March 2013. This represents a decrease of 6% compared with $131.7 million for the same period last year."

https://nzx.com/companies/TPW/announcements/236095.

Is this likely to dampen the demand for MRP shares?

[Xerof]

Gaynor was right on the button last night when asked what he saw todays range might be...

2.62 to 2.75 was his reply.....

not bad for an old fella:p

[minimoke]

minimoke "I think you will be eating your hat" LolNot tonight I'm not But I'll leave the hat on the table for a couple more days as I usually let my stags run three days.

Only 113k out of 440k pre-registered bought. Up 4.8% today on listing, 5% traded on first day. Not a great day for a stag so I'm not disappointing (yet) I didn't buy in.

4.8%, so far, doesn't really cut it for me either if I look at the future risks. So I'm in no hurry to buy in.

[tim23]

I reckon 20c+ plus is a great little stag, what did you expect? think they got the price about right

[minimoke]

I reckon 20c+ plus is a great little stag, what did you expect? think they got the price about right
Up 12 cents today, less brokerage (unavoidable) and tax (good risk of avoiding) is not a good stag.

[troyvdh]

Me thinks you are correct Mini.....in a funny sort of way I believe that todays SP performance is quite encouraging ....I mean why should the SM be a Casino....and why should IPO"s be a "punt"....I have never "staged" in my life....I am an investor.....if the SP had risen to perhaps $3...or what ever..."wow what a great stag that was,,,yeh ha...yippee".....Man I wish we could mature some...and stop reinforcing the belief of so many that the SM...is a casino....with folk having an investment horizon of a knat.

oops sorry Knat does not exist in the English language....perhaps I meant a Flea...that will do...cheers

[fungus pudding]

Me thinks you are correct Mini.....in a funny sort of way I believe that todays SP performance is quite encouraging ....I mean why should the SM be a Casino....and why should IPO"s be a "punt"....I have never "staged" in my life....I am an investor.....if the SP had risen to perhaps $3...or what ever..."wow what a great stag that was,,,yeh ha...yippee".....Man I wish we could mature some...and stop reinforcing the belief of so many that the SM...is a casino....with folk having an investment horizon of a knat.

oops sorry Knat does not exist in the English language....perhaps I meant a Flea...that will do...cheers

No. It's spelt gnat which makes me wonder, is it a knit's gnat, or a gnit's gnat!
P.S. That's the thing that lives on the hair of a fleas testicles.

[BIRMANBOY]

....Funny FP made me think of this as a morning tongue-twister
To sit in solemn silence in a dull, dark dock,
In a pestilential prison, with a life-long lock,
Awaiting the sensation of a short, sharp shock,
From a cheap and chippy chopper on a big black block!

No. It's spelt gnat which makes me wonder, is it a knit's gnat, or a gnit's gnat!
P.S. That's the thing that lives on the hair of a fleas testicles.

[tim23]

Up 12 cents today, less brokerage (unavoidable) and tax (good risk of avoiding) is not a good stag.

Gee minimoke - you are a bit selective plenty sold above $2.62!

[Snoopy]

http://www.3news.co.nz/Mighty-River-Power-86pct-NZ-owned--for-now/tabid/370/articleID/297094/Default.aspx

HoHum! ... I am extremely disappointed at such low figure when foreigners got so many!


A quote from the referenced TV3 article:

"A total of 86.5 percent of the shares will be New Zealand-owned, with 13.5 percent left for overseas institutions. That figure is higher than the number of shares taken up by New Zealand institutions however, which was only 8.9 percent."

It leaves out the most important fact, that NZ institutions were heavily scaled, which is why they 'only' took up so many.

As an individual I was annoyed that I was scaled back. But I probably wasn't scaled back as much as those NZers with Kiwisaver funds invested in the market. It was those New Zealanders who were shafted the most. And for what aim? To give the shares that should have been available to them to overseas investors! Personally I think that is disgusting. But the sad truth is most Kiwisaver investors will never know how badly shafted they were over MRP, because they aren't financially savvy enough to realise it.

SNOOPY

[mouse]

Snoopy, the problem is that without the 'overseas investors' we would have had less than $2.50 set as the offer price. Since NZ seems to be unwilling to pay a bit over the odds to get high quality shares. Having mentioned that, my son suggested today that maybe a good shake and our stake would go lop-sided.

[minimoke]

Up 12 cents today, less brokerage (unavoidable) and tax (good risk of avoiding) is not a good stag.

Gee minimoke - you are a bit selective plenty sold above $2.62!
No - its pretty much a standard practice to quote the last sale or opening price. Otherwise if you pick a price during the day you get accused of being selective.

[winner69]

A quote from the referenced TV3 article:

"A total of 86.5 percent of the shares will be New Zealand-owned, with 13.5 percent left for overseas institutions. That figure is higher than the number of shares taken up by New Zealand institutions however, which was only 8.9 percent."

It leaves out the most important fact, that NZ institutions were heavily scaled, which is why they 'only' took up so many.

As an individual I was annoyed that I was scaled back. But I probably wasn't scaled back as much as those NZers with Kiwisaver funds invested in the market. It was those New Zealanders who were shafted the most. And for what aim? To give the shares that should have been available to them to overseas investors! Personally I think that is disgusting. But the sad truth is most Kiwisaver investors will never know how badly shafted they were over MRP, because they aren't financially savvy enough to realise it.

SNOOPY

So of the 50% odd that got floated NZ instos got 18% overseas instos got 27% and NZ mums and dads got 55%

Seems ana wful lot of marketing money wasted to give away 55% of the shares (even after scaling) to the mums and dads .... did they get shafted at the end of the day

[Stu]

Around 97% of NZers didn't bother to apply, presumably they thought giving the currency away to fijian resorts or korean flat screen makers was doing their bit for the country.

[troyvdh]

dear stu...with all due respect...a significant majority of us do not trust most/any financial product...and for good reason...most folk bundle together the likes of Hanover and Shares together....like I said before about "staging"....its my belief (and yes I will have many folk taking the absolute piss )...that until NZ'ers adopt a different headspace re investing many indeed will continue to spend recklessly on consumer items.
Like I said I was quite encouraged by the fact that MRT did not rocket up to whatever...if it had I believe that it would have only confirmed that fact that the SM is a casino...where those who have already have the means get more.
Do not get me wrong I have no probs with folk making dosh.....I do/have with shares and property over 3 decades . Cheers

[minimoke]

Me thinks you are correct Mini.....in a funny sort of way I believe that todays SP performance is quite encouraging ....I mean why should the SM be a Casino....
Agree - it will be a great day when the SM isn't considered a casino
and why should IPO"s be a "punt".... But unfortunatly MRP is a bit of a punt. For a start it strikes me as mad that people are asked to buy something without knowing the price - that's nothing but taking a punt And how is it that our supposed trusted advisors couldn't release their analyses because so many of them were tied up in the IPO float. That is just wrong

I have never "staged" in my life....I am an investor.....
Perhaps you mean you are a long term investor. As an occasional short term investor "stagging" is a legitimate form of investment. You'll see in the MRP threads my reasons for being a stag - nothing to do with taking a punt. That's why I stayed out.

if the SP had risen to perhaps $3...or what ever..."wow what a great stag that was,,,yeh ha...yippee".....
Prior to the LG announcement this is exactly what I thought would happen. MRP float is political - it was always about selling to Moms and Pops, being seen to get a good return to the tax payer (around $2.50 - $2.60 would have done that), and demand for a blue chip stock would have outstripped supply leading to the inevitable $3.00 plus on float. National could have spun a great story at every level.

Man I wish we could mature some...and stop reinforcing the belief of so many that the SM...is a casino....with folk having an investment horizon of a knat. Well there were over 400,000 people initially looking at making a buy. I don't think they saw their registration as entry into the casino - they were looking at an opportunity to invest. That only 110,000 decided to spend suggests there is maturity in the market and in the float. - people were making decisions one way or another.

An investment in MRP also requires an investment horizon which isn't too long. The first challenge is the next election - a year away. If LN get in the next horizon is how long it will take to implement their policy. The next horizon, probably within 10 years is the closure of Tiwai. Any one that buys MRP to put in the bottom draw for retirement probably has the intelligence of a gnat/knat / knit[/QUOTE]