Optimizer HQ - potential IPO

[Snow Leopard]

Yet another software firm possibly looking to list:

http://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/news/article.cfm?c_id=3&objectid=10885970

[this line intentional left blank]

Best Wishes
Paper Tiger

[CJ]

What's with the "blank line"?

More info: http://www.optimizerhq.com/simplifying-business-technology/index.php

Their card reader is competing against Square, Paypay both operating only in the US at the moment, and a number of similar companies in Europe

[janner]

What's with the "blank line"?

More info: http://www.optimizerhq.com/simplifying-business-technology/index.php

Their card reader is competing against Square, Paypay both operating only in the US at the moment, and a number of similar companies in Europe

Well PT did say " Yet another "..

Another way of saying DYOR perhaps ??

Thanks for the info PT.. Will DMOR..

[Snow Leopard]

...[this line intentional left blank]...



What's with the "blank line"? ...


My thoughts.
Without particular reference to any technology company currently listed or intending to list in New Zealand:

It is easy to be cynical about a sudden flood of new listing in one particular sector at a time when the market is perhaps a little over exuberant, especially when a number of these companies have a good idea, little revenue, and lots of [potential] competition.
It is highly likely that a number of these companies will fail or endure a slow lingering decline whilst one or more may achieve outstanding returns and it is beyond me to determine which they will be.
Even companies which are currently profitable may fail.

However one can increase the chances of backing a winner by backing them all, and the more there are the greater the probability of at least one company achieving long term success and more than compensating for the remainder. If you lost 100% on 9 companies and make 2000% on the 10th, you have doubled your money.

So I am torn between ignoring them all and putting a little money into each of them and letting it ride.

Best Wishes
Paper Tiger

[blah]

My thoughts.
Without particular reference to any technology company currently listed or intending to list in New Zealand:

It is easy to be cynical about a sudden flood of new listing in one particular sector at a time when the market is perhaps a little over exuberant, especially when a number of these companies have a good idea, little revenue, and lots of [potential] competition.
It is highly likely that a number of these companies will fail or endure a slow lingering decline whilst one or more may achieve outstanding returns and it is beyond me to determine which they will be.
Even companies which are currently profitable may fail.

However one can increase the chances of backing a winner by backing them all, and the more there are the greater the probability of at least one company achieving long term success and more than compensating for the remainder. If you lost 100% on 9 companies and make 2000% on the 10th, you have doubled your money.

So I am torn between ignoring them all and putting a little money into each of them and letting it ride.

Best Wishes
Paper Tiger

I tend to agree with your thoughts. But having said that, it is all based upon the premise that all these tech stocks have high potential to make massively high return (ie 2000%), even if only a few make it there. This may be true; or not. Clearly many of these to-be tech IPOs don't have a clear point of difference that distinguishes them well from competitors (eg SLI). I would caution people to be caught along the tech-wave thinking blindly that tech companies will do well by default.

Rather we should be analysing each on a case-by-case basis and choosing winners-to-be, then spreading money amongst these different prospects.

[Snow Leopard]

...Rather we should be analysing each on a case-by-case basis and choosing winners-to-be, then spreading money amongst these different prospects.

Part of my point is that it is actually very difficult to choose winners-to-be. If you had thrown a few dollars at Xero (XRO) or Dilbert (DIL) in the early days you would have done very well.
Whether Xero will actually become a profitable company and stand the test of time is still unknown, and will it ever be worth it's current share price if it does?
Where will Diligent end up?
Pacific Edge (PEB) are (at very long last) potentially on the edge of something great, the product appears to be very good but they still have to actually still sell lots of it.
Ditto A2 (ATM).
Then there is BLT, GEN which still hang around and people with a better memory than me can probably list lots of those that came, spent money and then went phut (BIO does spring to mind).

Many years ago (twenty-nine to be precise!) I worked on "the technology that was going to make videotape redundant", we had great fun, spent millions and created a great working product, but no-one bought it.

The easy thing to do is just buy them on market when the technicals are good and sell them when they aren't.
But at the end of the day if you are not putting new capital into a company you are not actually helping the company achieve.
It is great that so many have joined the Snakk SPP but that is a single ticket, to win you may need to buy a few more.

The future winners and losers are impossible to predict and there is a random element to what takes off with the consumer.

Best Wishes
Paper Tiger

Disc: Any reference to any company, living or dead, is purely co-incidental and is not to be taken as a buy or sell recommendation.

Another Disc: Even when buying established companies with consistent profits using either/or/both fundamental analysis and technical analysis I still buy companies that sometimes go bad and sometimes exceed my expectations.

[kizame]

Good points there PT. Makes me think I should start shoving some money into other IPO's and leaving it in the bottom of the drawer until one takes Peter Thiel's money away from XRO or does world domination of their chosen sector. We are all looking for the next Apple, but some of us aren't prepared to wait that long. Maybe we should all take a page out of the old-school VC book by spreading risk across the sector and letting it choose the winner!

I think you need to be selective in choosing which is going to be the likely winner,I think snakk because of the revolution in mobile and tablet devices,and maybe Aria is another potential.Maybe if you through money across the sector you will get an index style performance,you will need a stellar performance to counter the duds and go nowhere's pretty much like the bio tech area.

[kizame]

true. well snakk is still number one for and until the others prove they are just as good or better, my moneys riding the snakk (and DIL) wave!

And exactly mine with some HNZ as a sea anchor haha.

[lastmoa]

I actually went to the offices of these guys to chat on something unrelated to their reader, but did end up chatting on their product.
Their card reader, is similar in principal to Square, Paypal, and all the other readers being used out there for Android and Apple platforms. One exception is that it will read chipped cards in addition to swiping (magnetic strip cards).
I have not seen their finished product so cannot comment on the software or the encryption that they use (important).
They may do ok in NZ but will run into headway if the decide to go into USA. Customer acceptance also needs to be taken into account too. I do not see NFC as the answer, for mobile payments, moving forward, imho.
As far as tech stocks go, I think an investor has to really step into the IT space and understand/study developments in this area in addition to their traditional stock analysing they do. I do not think it is totally 'hit and miss' ... you can reduce the risk somewhat.

[CJ]

They may do ok in NZ but will run into headway if the decide to go into USA.There are many different products such as Square, paypal in the US (as you point out) and a few in Europe. The key thing is is that they currently restrict which countries they work in.

On that basis, they would never target the US or Europe (or any country already serviced) as there is no point paying for the regulatory/sales costs when their is already a competitor. They need to get moving quickly so they can become the number 1 in all the countries that don't currently have an option available.

[CJ]

Pre IPO fund raising complete: http://www.stuff.co.nz/business/industries/8804871/Optimizer-HQ-raises-4-million

Are any of you the non-celebrity businessmen and entrepreneurs who got in on this?