Mobile Embrace Limited ("MBE")

[steve fleming]

Courtesy of http://thehardquestions2.blogspot.com.au/2013/05/mobile-embrace-mbe-big-potential-or.html

"MBE is micro cap company that offers advertising and marketing solutions for mobile phones and tablet devices. It has two key divisions.



Mobile Embrace (Display) – allows major brands to engage with customers via mobiles and tablets through mobile advertising and marketing. Largely a display advertising business for those with mobile phone apps that are trying to monetise their site traffic.
Mobile Entertainment Retail (MER) – manages direct to customer interactive marketing and services. The company allows brands to engage with retail customers and often enables the purchase of products or services online and can help with creating sales lead generation and database management.



MBE has a market cap of around $7M (so not much), looks like it’s could generate revenue of around $13M in 2013 and if a few things go right could squeeze out its first profit"


EBITDA positive, growing its mobile advertising revenues at a very impressive rate.

They run a lean ship and have won multiple awards. Blue chip advertising base.

In this presentation they mention comparable acquisition transactions of between 10 to 20 x net revenue (which if applied to MBE gives a potentially big number )

http://stocknessmonster.com/news-item?S=MBE&E=ASX&N=709892

This recent press release didn't get an ASX mention, but is quite interesting:

http://mumbrella.com.au/mobile-embrace-announces-rovio-partnership-154764

"Mobile Embrace, Australia and New Zealand’s leading premium mobile sales agency, announced today a partnership with leading global games publisher Rovio – the maker of one of the world’s leading apps of all time, Angry Birds.

Australian brands and advertisers can now for the first-time, purchase guaranteed targeted inventory on Angry Birds and Rovio’s other world leading games apps – Angry Birds Seasons, Angry Birds Rio, Angry Birds Space, Angry Birds Friends, Amazing Alex, Bad Piggies and Angry Birds Star Wars. Rovio also recently added leading children’s entertainment franchise The Croods to their suite of leading games apps.

The purchase of specific targeted inventory on Rovio’s portfolio of games is available in Australia solely through Mobile Embrace. Inventory can be broken out by app and specific reach can be provided across each game, providing advertisers with premium audience targeting.

Pete Birch, Managing Director of Advertising, Mobile Embrace, said, “Rovio is another fantastic addition to our growing stable of premium publishers. Their exceptionally popular games offer advertisers leading recognised premium environments. With the opportunity to integrate rich media ad units that feature the content themes of the apps themselves, Australian mobile advertisers can now engage their audiences at a deeper level. We know that rich media integrated into mobile content far more effective than a simple ad banner.”

Mobile Embrace’s tier one premium publisher advertising network is designed to focus on brand engagement and rich media at scale for advertisers who need to know where their ads are running, want to target specific audiences and who want to align with respected and recognised content.

Rovio is the latest edition to Mobile Embraces premium mobile advertising network, which features some of the biggest and most recognised global and local premium publishers, including Sportmate, Shazam, Sound Hound, Perform Group, and Pandora, in additional to leading media outlets US Weekly, CBS, APN, ARN and BBC. The entire network features more than 7000 leading premium publishers based both in Australia and internationally."

[NZSilver]

It looks like an interesting company in a potentially high growth market. It would be interesting for someone with a greater understanding of this industry to explain how this and other similar companies ie snakk make revenue and what potential there really is. Thanks

[steve fleming]

Maybe MBE should list on the NZX?

Snakk has a post cap-raising EV of $30m, annualised revenues of $6m and is making losses/is a start up - (NZD)

MBE has an EV of $6m, revenues of $13m, is EBITDA positive and has no start up risk - (AUD)

[steve fleming]

Maybe MBE should list on the NZX?

Snakk has a post cap-raising EV of $30m, annualised revenues of $6m and is making losses/is a start up - (NZD)

MBE has an EV of $6m, revenues of $13m, is EBITDA positive and has no start up risk - (AUD)

THis provides the best summary of where MBE is currently at:

http://stocknessmonster.com/news-item?S=MBE&E=ASX&N=718758

"New customer acquisition strategies have delivered efficiencies in the cost ofacquisition. Diversification and establishment of new marketing channels has givengreater control to marketing performance and expenditure.
Broadening of themarketing channel mix has improved risk mitigation across the peaks and troughs ofindividual marketing channel performance enabling “smoothing” and better consistencyin overall marketing performance. Unaudited revenue for the Mobile Embrace group has increased 16.5% for the first 1⁄2FY13 compared to the previous corresponding period from $4.95 million to $5.76million, in line with forecast.

The mobile advertising business has continued to strengthen and grow its mobileadvertising premium publisher network with leading publishers such as Sportsmate,Mamamia, Dictionary.com, APN, ARN and BBC. This has increased the amount ofmobile advertising inventory it can sell in market, and also the targeting capability thatadds to the advertiser market segments it can service.

The Tier 1 premium publisher network provides advertisers access to large volumes oftargeted ad impressions monthly across mobiles and tablets.

The network offers premium advertising channels in Sport, News and Business, Musicand Entertainment, Lifestyle and, through its broader aggregated network inpartnership with US based AdMarvel, gives advertisers premium placement across araft of the major international publishing mastheads visited by Australian consumers,enabling quality audience targetiThe list of major brand clients purchasing advertising within the network has continuedto expand with many notable additions including American Express, Jagermeister, StGeorge, Peugeot, Red Bull, Xbox, Dick Smith, Kelloggs, SPC, Kia, Warner Music, RedRooster, Webjet, Sanitarium, Adidas, Disney Home Entertainment, Schick and VillageRoadshow.


The mobile advertising business strategy of bringing together outstanding brandadvertisers with premium quality mobile advertising inventory continues to strengthenits competitive positioning. The business provides a “brand safe” mobile advertisingnetwork environment that protects major brands and leading masthead publishers fromundesirable and potentially damaging brand associations that can occur when utilizing“blind network” mobile advertising where the advertising destination or the advertiserare not controlled or are unknown.
According to analyst firm Berg Insight consumers are currently devoting a quarter oftheir media consumption time on mobile devices, yet the channel only attracts slightly1% of the ad dollars. Its new research report predicts the total value of the globalmobile advertising and marketing market will grow from $4.95 billion in 2011 at acompound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 31% to $25.6 billion in 2017. This will thencorrespond to 15.5% of the total online advertising market.
Australian businesses are now aware it is critical that they are optimised for mobile inorder to follow consumers. Mobile Embraces platforms and technology solve the “gomobile” problem for business.

The Company uniquely provides an end-to-end mobile marketing and advertisinginfrastructure that includes the premium advertising network, mobile messaging, mobilemarketing tools and applications, mobile loyalty, mobile database capture andmanagement, mobile media and web design, development and publishing, mobileapplications, somogeo (social mobile and geographical) and m-commerce.

Mobile Embrace is a market leader in mobile and digital communications, which willbecome strategically more relevant and important to Australian businesses, and theirneed to engage the mobile market in the future.

The Company is well positioned to capitalise on a market forecast for strong andsustained growth."

[Snow Leopard]

Take a company with little revenue and no profit how do you put a value on it? Simple you say it will be "really big and successful" as it is as easy to imagine that as "might survive the next year".

Take a company with reasonable revenue and a small profit or loss, well you have hard numbers to do valuations with and it is not so easy to get "the next google" out of it.

I honestly believe that is how a large number of buyers approach this sort of stuff.


Anyways, thanks for bringing this to everyone's attention.

I am currently mulling over whether I should be putting some money in a number of such companies on a more long term basis, I have bought and sold more on technical analysis, eg ASX.ICQ, with this sort of company but MBE does not meet my liquidity requirements.

It certainly looks like it could be a successful and profitable company in the near term and definitely worth considering.
How many shares are currently on issue? 300M or 350M?

Best Wishes
Paper Tiger

[steve fleming]

http://www.bandt.com.au/news/digital/angry-birds-a-lesson-in-mobile-as-the-first-screen

Angry Birds a lesson in mobile as the "first screen" 29 May, 2013


"As part of this mantra Rovio now enables brands to embed their logos and messages within Angry Birds games as part of the animated sets and characters’ activities.

Creation of these sorts of brand engagement opportunities will be a core part of Rovio’s new partnership (http://www.bandt.com.au/news/digital/angry-birds-opens-to-aussie-advertisers) with mobile advertising network, Mobile Embrace, announced in early May.

According to Pete Birch, MD of fourth screen advertising at Mobile Embrace, Australian advertisers are playing a game of catch up with increasingly mobilized Australian consumers.
“Ad spend hasn’t caught up yet with consumer behaviour,” said Birch.
“In this market I would estimate only 5%-10% of the total digital spend is going into mobile, but you’ve got consumers spending 30% - 40% of their time using mobile to access the internet.
“This puts down a challenge to agencies and clients and advertisers. They are not moving fast enough to mobilise their content to get their ads in front of an audience which is increasingly mobile.”

[Stranger_Danger]

Is it just me, or does this stock make Snakk look really bad?

[percy]

Is it just me, or does this stock make Snakk look really bad?

You are not alone.! Me too.!! Can't bring myself to read Snakk thread<>>>>/?! lol.

[steve fleming]

An updated post from: http://thehardquestions2.blogspot.com.au/2013_06_01_archive.html

Mobile Embrace – (MBE) – Momentum is building! (http://thehardquestions2.blogspot.com.au/2013/06/mobile-embrace-mbe-momentum-is-building.html)



We discussed the potential upside as well as the risks to MBE in an earlier post (http://thehardquestions2.blogspot.com.au/2013/05/mobile-embrace-mbe-big-potential-or.html). Whist there has been nothing new from the company in recent times, there have been changes and general industry feedback, which suggests that momentum has been building in MBE’s core markets.

With regard to MBE’s fledgling mobile display advertising division, the industry changes have been encouraging. The key enabler for the industry seems to have come from the major advertising agencies. They see and understand the need for their clients to be capable of placing advertising on mobile phones, given the high level of usage and increasing amount of time customers spend each day using the mobile phones. The increasing sophistication of smart phones has also permitted advertising options for the devices to become ever-more sophisticated and therefore more engaging. Morgan Stanley estimates that internet access via mobile phones will overtake PCs within the next 12-months.

To this end, the major ad agencies have recently started setting up internal, specialist teams to deal specifically with providing advertising solutions for mobile devices. This suggests that the ad agencies will look to increase spend and focus in mobile advertising, otherwise why would they set up a specialist team for it? This line of thought is further evidenced by the explosion in mobile advertising spend in the March quarter, where industry growth was up 183% (source – IAB Australia) despite the overall advertising market being decidedly weak. This growth rate is expected to see the total Australian mobile ad market triple from $13M in 2012 to ~$36M in 2013. Whilst a very small base, it is growing rapidly with very few players in the space.

Like most technology industries Australia typically lags the trends seen overseas. The UK for instance is reporting (Source – Jon Med, IAB UK) that mobile advertising spend overtook cinema last year and is set to overtake radio spend in the coming year. Australia looks like the UK market about 2yrs ago, mobile advertising was new and only just starting to gain acceptance. Yet once adoption was evident the market grew at an astonishing rate. Hopefully, Australia is reaching the point where adoption is becoming evident. It’s also worth noting that whilst Australia often lags in terms of technological advances, we have one of the highest smart phone ownership rates in the world.

The ever increasing sophistication of smart phones and tablets, along with the trend of people conducting more and more transactions online via smart phones and tablets should lead to retailers seeking greater engagement with their customers across these mediums. If customers are no longer coming into the stores or reading the papers the retailers need a new way to communicate directly with their customers as part of any advertising campaign. The most obvious way is via the mobile phone.

This trend should create opportunities for MBE’s database and direct communications business. MBE is well placed to create and distribute advertising, promotions, coupons and to enable online purchasing of goods on behalf of retailers seeking to promote directly to their own client bases. This should lead to a new generation of loyalty programs that are conducted over the text, email or internet allowing retailers and brand owners to engage directly with customers without the need for the customer to first come into the store.

Whilst it remains unclear how MBE is tracking in terms of growth this year, there does appear to be some positive trends coming out of its key markets. The industry looks to be finally getting ready to accept mobile advertising as a genuine component of major advertising campaigns, rather than treating it as an adjunct product that is trialled with any funds left over once the core campaign has been executed. It will be interesting to see how MBE’s sales and earnings performance plays out as we come into the financial year end.

[steve fleming]

Is it just me, or does this stock make Snakk look really bad?

Probably comes down to the fact that there are a couple of thousand odd small/micro-caps on the ASX and only a couple of dozen on the NZX.

So on the ASX you have thousands more companies fighting for investment dollars and profile.

Far easier to get a profile , with less scrutiny on the fundamentals, if you are pretty much the only investment option.


So I am trying to do my little bit to push MBE's case!

[NZSilver]

Yeh it looks like it might be worth throwing a few hundred dollars at them.

[Joshuatree]

Anyone familiar with the management , history, track record, shareholders first, or snouts in the trough ,etc etc.?

[steve fleming]

Anyone familiar with the management , history, track record, shareholders first, or snouts in the trough ,etc etc.?

THe MD and CEO both took pay cuts when the company was loosing money a couple of years ago...i think they are still on the reduced salaries

When I have spoken to the CEO, he has re-iterated that he has got 26 million reasons to make this company a success (he is the largest shareholder)

However, having said that, it hasn't helped the share price over the last 5 years!!

[stoploss]

Steve looks like a pretty decent result today ... ?

[steve fleming]

Steve looks like a pretty decent result today ... ?

Yep, they sold some non-core busineses during the year, so year on year revenue is not really comparable.

A $1m EBITDA is good, but the real re-rate of the stock will come if it can start to generate a $2.5m + EBITDA.
If it can do that then the market will really start to take notice and you will be looking at a $20m + market cap (currently $7m).

If they can maintain the Q4 revenues of $4m, and do say $16 to $18m revenue for FY14 then it should be generating EBITDA in that vicinity.

[stoploss]

Yep, they sold some non-core busineses during the year, so year on year revenue is not really comparable.

A $1m EBITDA is good, but the real re-rate of the stock will come if it can start to generate a $2.5m + EBITDA.
If it can do that then the market will really start to take notice and you will be looking at a $20m + market cap (currently $7m).

If they can maintain the Q4 revenues of $4m, and do say $16 to $18m revenue for FY14 then it should be generating EBITDA in that vicinity.

thanks Steve,
Disc: got some free SNK shares so was watching this space, also own MBE now as a bit of a hedge.

[steve fleming]

Update from http://thehardquestions2.blogspot.com.au/2013/06/mobile-embrace-mbe-explosive-growth-can.html

They talk about " If our numbers are roughly right, it suggests that if the 4Q EBITDA is annualised (as we did with the revenue run rates for the divisions), MBE could be on track to generate ~$3-$3.5M EBITDA next year just by holding it 4Q earnings flat for the coming year....Hopefully they have finally hit the tipping point in terms of market acceptance of mobile advertising in which case it could be an interesting year ahead for this little company. "

given the seasonality in the advertising business, I question the logic of annualising the last quarter, nevertheless, as mentioned previously, an EBITDA of $2.5m would still be very impressive (current market cap = $6m)


----------------------
Mobile Embrace - (MBE) - Explosive growth, can it sustain?




MBE has recently provided investors with a trading update for the year end 30 June 2013. The update showed that the company’s earnings have ramped up strongly through the latter part of the year. There was no reaction in the share price to the announcement, which is probably due to the reasonably poor way in which the overall message was communicated to investors. We have broken down the numbers provided to try and understand what sort of growth the business is seeing. It appears (assuming our break down is roughly right) that the changing industry dynamics outlined in our earlier post (http://thehardquestions2.blogspot.com.au/2013/06/mobile-embrace-mbe-momentum-is-building.html) on MBE is starting to show in it’s revenues.


MBE has told investors that revenue for the year will be ~$12M and that the 4Q was a very strong quarter after a shocker in the 3Q. The key highlight in the release was not the explosion in 4Q revenue, but the revelation that the company was profitable in the 4Q and had moved into a cash flow positive position. This is good news as it suggests that there will be no further equity raisings and that the company can now fund its own growth via internally generated cash flows.


The divisional information provided allows investors to attempt to understand the growth in the business. The database business generated about $4.8M in the second half, of which $2.9M was delivered in the 4Q. This implies that the additional investment in these assets and the restructure undertaken last Christmas is starting to deliver earnings growth. The revenue result is still muddied by the legacy operations within this division rolling off. This division should deliver ~$9M in revenue this year. Given it did $2.9M in the 4Q, even if they only maintained that rate for the next 12 months they should deliver revenue of ~$12M from this division alone next year.


The display business had a huge 4Q, after a shocking 3Q. They reported that this division will do $3M revenue for the year. Given it did $1.6M in the first half, this implies $1.4M in the second half. Given the growth rates it looks like about $1m in revenue was generated in the 4Q, meaning it did about $400k in the 3Q. If they can hold the $1M run rate delivered in the 4Q it suggests that next year it could be on track to do about $4M in revenue from this division plus whatever growth they can achieve. The large 4Q hopefully suggests that the changes to the industry structure and higher levels of acceptance of mobile as an advertising medium is starting to be reflected in this division’s revenue.


Assuming the 4Q run rates can be sustained for next year, (even without growth) MBE should be able to generate ~$16M in revenue ($12M Database + $4M Display) with both divisions being profitable. Below, we have had a go at reverse engineering MBE’s figures to try and work out how profitable it was in the 4Q as a way of understanding the potential for the coming year.


Some assumptions had to be made to get to these numbers so the accuracy cannot be guaranteed but we gave it a shot. We can work out the 1H/2H revenue and EBITDA splits from the numbers provided. The group EBITDA is provided but the cost split between the 3Q and 4Q is an assumption – we put 47.5% of the total cost in 3Q and 52.5% of the costs in the 4Q, implying that costs increased at the same time revenues did. Our numbers imply that the group lost ~$380k EBITDA in the 3Q and made ~$880k in the 4Q to get to a net $500k for the second half. If our numbers are roughly right, it suggests that if the 4Q EBITDA is annualised (as we did with the revenue run rates for the divisions), MBE could be on track to generate ~$3-$3.5M EBITDA next year just by holding it 4Q earnings flat for the coming year.


It seems that MBE delivered a strong 4Q in terms of revenue growth and profitability. The key will be if it can sustain that level or even grow against the 4Q base. It will be an exciting year ahead for investors if the 4Q earnings base turns out to be a good starting point for the coming year. Hopefully they have finally hit the tipping point in terms of market acceptance of mobile advertising in which case it could be an interesting year ahead for this little company. Time will tell if they can deliver the required growth.

[Snow Leopard]

Update from http://thehardquestions2.blogspot.com.au/2013/06/mobile-embrace-mbe-explosive-growth-can.html
....

Pretty poor analysis in my opinion.

Best Wishes
Paper Tiger

[stoploss]

Pretty poor analysis in my opinion.

Best Wishes
Paper Tiger

PT care to elaborate , whats your take on the company ?

[Snow Leopard]

One thing I detest about this company is their announcements. The will crow about the positives and ignore the negatives, always get your spreadsheet out and do your own numbers on them.

********
Taking one good quarter and projecting it forward would be OK except that the quarterly revenues have a history of sometimes significant variance and thus you need to consider normalising them. If you work with the half-year figures you get the following:

Payments:
FY12-13 H2: $4M8
FY12-13 H1: $4M2
FY11-12 H2: $5M4
FY11-12 H1: $4M1

Advertising:
FY12-13 H2: $1M4
FY12-13 H1: $1M6
FY11-12 H2: $1M0
FY11-12 H1: $0M8

So the great explosion in Q4 Payments this year does not look so flash necessarily and assuming $2M9 a quarter could be optimistic.

Advertising is growing but perhaps $750K for Q4 would be better, but increasing going forward.

Of course there conclusion could well be correct but I consider the assumptions flawed.

********
Where do I see them going?

I would suggest that they are now profitable; not necessarily cash flow positive yet but could be this coming year, otherwise they will have to do their annual share dilution.
There should be good growth going forward.

At 2.1c they are almost certainly a bargain, but currently far rather too illiquid for me.

Best Wishes
Paper Tiger

[steve fleming]

Big break-out day.

2.9c close versus the 1.9 - 2.3 range over the past 6 months.

Decent volume (5.6m) clearing plenty of stale bulls, but lots of traders on baord now ....lets see if it can hold.

[stoploss]

3 cents today , up 20 % on reasonable volume, any news out there ??????

[stoploss]

just rising profits. up 50% now in a few weeks. company starting to come to the fore with fourth screen advertising

mmm, having another go at the yearly highs.Happy as a holder, looks like someone wants in ......

[Entrep]

I want in, LOTS of games being played though... Massive volume too

[stoploss]

I want in, LOTS of games being played though... Massive volume too

yes, not for the risk averse....looks like a good opportunity now , some good selling hit this afternoon......

[baller18]

This would've been so much better than SNK ay moosie?
disc: still holding snk, kinda wishing I had bought MBE... lol

[stoploss]

Not sure if this is the same space, maybe someone who knows better can enlighten me.

http://www.nbr.co.nz/article/while-you-were-sleeping-facebook-mobile-ads-surprise-bd-143385

[z0ton]

Anyone know whats going on with MBE over the last few days? Huge rise in volumes and SP..

[stoploss]

Anyone know whats going on with MBE over the last few days? Huge rise in volumes and SP..

Hi z0ton, they got a speeding ticket from the ASX the other day and said there was nothing to be disclosed to the market. So can only assume it is a space investors want to be in.Not sure if it's the same sort of space as the article I posted above, but I was thinking it can only help.
Cheers S/L

[Montoya42]

Very interesting sector at the moment, mob advertising on the brink by the looks. Great ride this week.

disc: holding

[NZSilver]

This stock is climbing out of control, its up approx 130% , pitty i only bought $600 AUS worth of shares to keep an eye on it...

[baller18]

crazy, its just sky rocketing...

[stoploss]

Thought it would be prudent to lock some cash in. Sold 20 % of my holding today.

[steve fleming]

parabolic rise. wait for the sp to settle then buy at a lower rate. the market rewards the patient few...

Agree, traders are all over this. Wait for the re-trace.

But for over 6 months, MBE traded between 1.8 and 2.2c.

That was really the time to load up, when it had an EV of just $5m. Was a no brainer at those levels.

[Joshuatree]

settling today re 4.8c

[baller18]

6.1 cents today...

[stoploss]

22 mio shares through today so far , someone is keen !!!!

[winner69]

22 mio shares through today so far , someone is keen !!!!

Prob just a core few mill being bought and sold by the day traders

Interesting end of day and week coming up here

How many million do you have baller?

[baller18]

Prob just a core few mill being bought and sold by the day traders

Interesting end of day and week coming up here

How many million do you have baller?

Haha wish I had millions in this stock when it was like 1.5 cents 3 weeks ago, however my money was in SnK (not the smartest)...

[OneUp]

According to the AGM presentation MBE have a relationship with Velti (NASDAQ: Velt) - there are reports Velti are not paying their debts and are laying off workers. Not sure if MBE is exposed financially to these developments?

http://venturebeat.com/2013/08/01/velti-mobclix-30-million/

http://venturebeat.com/2013/07/31/velti-trouble/

[stoploss]

mmm, up another 20 % today,taken profit . The balance I have left are free see what happens...
Thanks steve .

[Copper]

Haha wish I had millions in this stock when it was like 1.5 cents 3 weeks ago, however my money was in SnK (not the smartest)...


In Snakk as well but looked at this when mentioned and bgt some.Glad I did but you have to move fast or you are liable to miss a cent at a time.Let's hope it keeps up.

[baller18]

Should've Snakked on this!!

[stoploss]

mmm, thats why the volume was so large , upgrade 2013 profit .... anyway can't complain....

[stoploss]

lol as soon as I said that they came put with that release, jeeeeeez! I might look for an entry point in the coming weeks. refer to NEA.ASX to see how a recently profitable share operates in regards to its price. interesting times ahead...

looks like you might get a chance , buy the rumour sell the fact ........

[baller18]

Don't understand how MBE can be up 20% in one day, then back down to an increase of 1%...
Why does the SP fluctuate so wildly???

[steve fleming]

mmm, up another 20 % today,taken profit . The balance I have left are free see what happens...
Thanks steve .

No probs S/L. Glad you made some $'s.

As always, the key is to get in early before the herd/followers catch on.

Good strategy re free carrying - have done the same myself.

[stoploss]

Mobile advertising.....

http://www.bloomberg.com/infographics/2013-08-02/facebook-shares-surpass-IPO-on-positive-mobile-outlook.html

[OneUp]

Mobile advertising.....

http://www.bloomberg.com/infographics/2013-08-02/facebook-shares-surpass-IPO-on-positive-mobile-outlook.html

From my limited understanding of MBE's business they appear to be a middleman between publisher and advertiser. Facebook appears to be growing its mobile business strongly partly by cutting out middlemen.

"While Facebook has reported some impressive moves in mobile advertising, its success comes in part to the general detriment of the middlemen — the agencies and ad networks — who are being cut out of the deal between brands and the publishers. Some companies are taking their marketing efforts in-house, hurting companies like Velti further. Other advertising is going to the machines — via highly automated real-time bidding exchanges — cutting out higher cost advertising and marketing companies."

http://venturebeat.com/2013/07/31/velti-trouble/

[steve fleming]

http://thehardquestions2.blogspot.com.au/2013/08/mobile-embrace-mbe-blast-off.html

"As outlined below, the MBE Share price has taken an upward move over recent weeks. Although the rally looks impressive on the chart, investors should remember that the market capitalisation of the company has moved from a tiny ~$6M to a still quite small ~$17M. We note that New Zealand listed Snakk is a similar business to MBE, is yet to deliver a profit, yet is valued at roughly twice as much as MBE. This is hard to reconcile? Whilst MBE is still too young to value in terms of earnings (as it only seemed to hit its straps in the last quarter of 2013), the future potential of this little business could be large if they can deliver a high quality service in this fledgling market. Hopefully the company will provide a trading update on how things are progressing in 1Q14 when it releases it earnings result presentation over the coming months. Continuation of the strong growth delivered in 4Q13 will be crucial if the company is to extend its share price gains."

[Copper]

I certainly have to say that having just read their Company presentation even I could understand it all.Quite impressive to the lay person even though it may be a load of hot air to the analyst.
Regards.....

[Copper]

If the results are seasonal, I'd be watching Snakk as they report before MBE. And remember, SNK's market cap and reports are in NZD...

Do you think Snakk may have the edge at this point.MBE have had quite a rise.....Personally I think both are in the right space but the Aussy traders seem to add a lot of confusion to the picture and I would think half of them would be of the non analytical mindset if that's a sufficient term...

[Entrep]

Snak's leadership are also proven. Unsure if MBE are.

[stoploss]

Company presentation

http://www.asx.com.au/asxpdf/20130806/pdf/42hhr9hjs3kb0m.pdf (http://www.asx.com.au/asxpdf/20130806/pdf/42hhr9hjs3kb0m.pdf)

[Copper]

[QUOTE=moosie_900;420123]They have some pretty good companies on board and seem to be hacking their way through the market. Same growth prospects with diversification, so less risk than SNK. Market cap compared to other companies still suggests being undervalued, but give it some time before it becomes equal with others. Combined increase in revenue, profit growth and FB announcing better growth in mobile advertising will all help to drive MBE much
higher.[/QUOTE

Many tks .Well explained.regards.....

[baller18]

sure didn't, but should've grabbed it at 1.8cents... darn it!

[Copper]

Just keep an eye on the charts and find an entry. Looking in the rearview mirror and wishing will not help grow your capital base ;)

Am not a chartist and a bit late to learn much but without being cheeky do you see a point of entry in near future.The stock seems to have settled down and today is pretty bad overall so a guess would be some time soon.????

[Copper]

Many tks all on the chart stuff.Think I can cope with the 30 day moving ave for a start.
Regards,,,

[Entrep]

Any thoughts on whether they will do a CR?

[winner69]

looks like our beloved MBE is starting to come back to earth. it is currently tracking the 10 day MA and bouncin upwards off it, but RSI and MACD are pointing down. a close beliw 5.8 today should confirm a break in that trend. I would then expect the sp to hit the 30 day MA and stay above it, either tp consolidate or push higher. over the next 2 weeks a goof opening wilk likely appear. I would take a chance to buy between 4.5 and 5 (as fibonacci retracement from the high of 7.8) with anything below 4.5 a definite buy. good luck to all those watching and thinking of buying in, this stock is still well undervalued compared to its peers ;)

Much the same commentary you could give to DIL eh

Fibs are always interesting ....DIL has one at 582 ....spooky eh

[winner69]

Even spookier, XRO is lining up the same DIL chart signals. Hold on to your hats over there in the NZX threads ;)

Jeez ....just like the RAK chart of a few years ago

Hold on to your hats eh

[Copper]

Even spookier, XRO is lining up the same DIL chart signals. Hold on to your hats over there in the NZX threads ;)

As you can see above I am no chartist but am very interested in the current comments.On your reckoning or hunch may I ask where you see Xero heading or is it too soon.
Regards..

[Copper]

Its also hugging the hourly 50 EMA so probably a lot of traders in the stock at present.

It's interesting from my view that at the close the last sales in the last few days have been at the buying quote and the remaining quoted sellers are 4 or 5 cents above.Today 6 cents .It's a thin market on that basis full of traders.

[Entrep]

Yes this is still being traded hard with all sorts of games going on. Would love for it to settle in the 5s or lower and I'll be grabbing some.

[Copper]

Here's what my charts are telling me right now:

4735

Thank you.that's stunning for a bloke like me.

[Entrep]

Here's what my charts are telling me right now:

4735

Thanks!! 10 chars

[Copper]

another day of hurt! watch those charts and hopefully some of us can make some money while the traders are hurting ;)

Moose.. You must have been tempted ....??

[winner69]

Don't think Moosie was ... he too busy propping up the DIL shareprice in case it drops to something starting with a 4 and sets off another wave of selling

[baller18]

Damn, so hard to find an entry point for MBE, so bi-polar!!! Swings up and down like a swing!!!

[Copper]

Damn, so hard to find an entry point for MBE, so bi-polar!!! Swings up and down like a swing!!!

Totally agree but after watching it for a month or more you would have to take the risk and with a little of Moosie's and others charts pick a low price and put an order in that can be filled if it reaches that and hope you have made the right decision.Odds on the damn thing will take on a new trading pattern.

[Minerbarejet]

good theory with three piles but you would probably need a 4th for the brokerage.:eek2:

[stoploss]

good theory with three piles but you would probably need a 4th for the brokerage.:eek2:

If brokerage is an issue you probably shouldn't be investing.

[Minerbarejet]

If brokerage is an issue you probably shouldn't be investing.Being a trader it wouldnt be an issue as such because it can be claimed as expenses but it can eat into the bottom line.

[Copper]

Looks like MBE is having it's lunch eaten by MKB today. Looking to Nasdaq list with growth exploding from US college influx as customers.

Moosie.. What do your many stars say on MBE if I may ask.Everything on paper points to a pretty active positive few months but Mr Prechter may be lurking in some peoples minds.
Regards....

[Copper]

jeez, I'm not quite sure now, the trading is just all over the place and absolutely chock full of traders giving random signals on the share price. I'm staying out until we see more clarity on where it is going to settle, although reporting this Wednesday might send it off on another spurt!

btw, who is mr prechter?

Moose..... Tks for great comment.As a chartist I thought that you may have known.Am I right in saying he was the guru involved with the Elliott Wave theory?.That's why I mentioned him in the comment.I may be wrong.The Elliott Wave seemed to always be a promoter of doom..
Kind regards.

[Copper]

Sorry Moosie... My posts sometimes call you Moose .It's that my iPad spellchecks and I don't catch it in time.
Regards.

[stoploss]

jeez, I'm not quite sure now, the trading is just all over the place and absolutely chock full of traders giving random signals on the share price. I'm staying out until we see more clarity on where it is going to settle, although reporting this Wednesday might send it off on another spurt!

btw, who is mr prechter?

Moosie, wasn't this the latest (unaudited) out on August 5 ?

[baller18]

Looks like our time to invest in MBE or MKB may be fast approaching. Nothing like taking someone advantage of someone else's fear to make some money on the market. One has to ask ones self, does the USA dropping bombs on the M.E. affect mobile advertising? Me thinks not one iota.

Stay tuned :)
Don't Snaak us again moosie! lol!

[Copper]

Looks like our time to invest in MBE or MKB may be fast approaching. Nothing like taking someone advantage of someone else's fear to make some money on the market. One has to ask ones self, does the USA dropping bombs on the M.E. affect mobile advertising? Me thinks not one iota.

Stay tuned :)

Moosie... Am now in both for no other reason than both look right in same space.As mentioned ,no chartist.Keep at giving our friends some thoughts to counter their intelligence.
Kind regards.....

[Minerbarejet]

Looks like our time to invest in MBE or MKB may be fast approaching. Nothing like taking someone advantage of someone else's fear to make some money on the market. One has to ask ones self, does the USA dropping bombs on the M.E. affect mobile advertising? Me thinks not one iota.

Stay tuned :)it will probably affect gold though and any bombs will undoubtedly affect advertising in the M.E.

[Minerbarejet]

something out this morning on Mbe although I dont know if its a revelation or not. seems i heard it before . The internet seems very slow in the cave.:)
Have cranked up the sell order just in case it goes stupid.

[Minerbarejet]

which it has, thanks very much:)

[soulman]

something out this morning on Mbe although I dont know if its a revelation or not. seems i heard it before . The internet seems very slow in the cave.:)
Have cranked up the sell order just in case it goes stupid.

Their profit result. Glad I had an order in last night for 7.1, seeing the break on Friday volume wise and chart wise.

[Copper]

Hi Moosie if you are there. What do all your charts say.To the common man we are moving along at a sedate pace on the 10 day moving average with no sign of that hullabaloo we saw the other day......

[stoploss]

thanks Steve,
Disc: got some free SNK shares so was watching this space, also own MBE now as a bit of a hedge.

Stopped out of SNK today, staying with the winner here ............

[Copper]

Man, should have listened to my own advice and bought MBE ages ago! Unfortunately I am all tied up in others on the NZX and cannot exit right now so am just watching her tick up and up and up! Hope others have heeded the call and bought in though, getting close to a nice valuation there with a P/E of 75! Not toooooo high considering the market and growth prospects, but might be some time soon to take money off the table once the euphoria in Oz wears off :)

Many tks...every time one looks at possibly exiting we get this surge like today on quadrupled turnover. Must be some rag tipping them constantly or some figures due soon.

[winner69]

Copper.......shush shush ..time to keep quiet on this thread - the shareprice is inversely proportional to the number of posts, just the SNK thread

So quiet please mate - let us enjoy the ride ...we don't want non holders to tell us 'time to take money off the table' do we
-

[Copper]

Copper.......shush shush ..time to keep quiet on this thread - the shareprice is inversely proportional to the number of posts, just the SNK thread

So quiet please mate - let us enjoy the ride ...we don't want non holders to tell us 'time to take money off the table' do we
-
Great... Will shush unless I get too excited.After SNK one needs a quiet place to enjoy.

[steve fleming]

Hit the psychological 10c mark - should be a nice level to consolidate around.

Institutional support/interest is now soaking up some of the retail free float.

from h/c:

http://www.bandt.com.au/opinion/mobile-penny-finally-dropping-for-australian-marke

Good piece by Pete Birch (MD for 4th screen Aus, part of MBE)

-------------------------
Australian marketers are finally beginning to embrace mobile as a credible platform.

Mobile ad spend in 2013 is up 190% as more and more Australian brands and advertisers mobilise their content and add interactivity to traditional media. What’s more, mobile ad formats are moving beyond the banner to offer creative content and tools to communicate with audiences.

As the only medium offering always on, always in reach connectivity, mobile is touted to soon eclipse TV as the first screen. But while that’s a way off for now, how are Australian marketers embracing mobile now?

To begin with we’re seeing a shift away from big brand advertisers running ‘blind’ banner campaigns over a myriad of ad networks. With thousands of apps and m-sites, it was simply a numbers game before a big brand was caught in an environment with questionable content.

Would this happen in print? Would this happen on TV?

Targeted and contextual environments have always been the two essentials to create successful media placement for brands. This is where mobile’s early rush to put brand advertisers in a performance space, where clicks and price alone were the only determinants, caused major concerns for brands.

I’m not being critical of performance networks as we operate in this space also, but our view has always been performance has a role for response driven advertisers, not big brands where image and association are critical to success.

To me marketers’ use of performance networks for their big brand campaigns was a simply case of not understanding there is another way. But now, as mobile comes of age in Australia, our brand managers increasingly want to know where each and every ad is being placed.

Long lists of mobile publishers no-one has ever heard of no longer cut it. Advertisers are increasingly questioning if they’re in safe environments. By ‘safe’ I mean their premium brand is positioned alongside content of genuine quality, targeted to appropriate audiences with contextual relevance.

It’s been a learning curve for many an advertiser, but it is good news for our industry that the fundamentals of traditional advertising are finally being applied to mobile.

As this shift slowly takes place to contextually relevant content, mobile marketing is truly coming into its own. Premium environments often have the added benefit enabling rich media ad units that use the theme of an app or m-site or offer unique content.

And creative, tailored content produces campaigns that perform better. Not just via more ‘clicks’ but through deeper brand engagement. Just like the basic mechanics of traditional advertising.

But there is still room to grow. The newness of mobile often means it’s an after-thought or the first to go when budgets are squeezed. I’ve also seen too many examples of mobile being planned and booked after everything else has been laid down.

But on the whole, that too is changing right now. Increasingly marketers and agencies are considering the role mobile can play alongside traditional media and are planning interactivity at the campaign outset. They are increasingly understanding the complementary role it can play – after all everyone owns a mobile and knows how to use it – plus they have it in their hand almost 24/7.

Mobile’s ability to bolt on and enable interactive audience engagement via an on pack QR code, an optimised for mobile re-directed URL or via an SMS mechanic is all very simple stuff. Easy to implement and add at low cost. It’s often also the fun component of a campaign for consumers while being directly measurable for marketers.

And more good news, mobile interactivity can be added to just about anything. By looking at mobile as part of the overall marketing mix not only does mobile become the glue that can bind the overall campaign together, it becomes the very heart of a campaign delivering impact, involvement and response in an instant.

The future for mobile in Australia is certainly bright. Not only are more and more brands embracing mobile, they are doing so in an increasingly creative and considered way. After all, mobile can be more than just a platform to drive downloads on a cheap cost per click basis.

[steve fleming]

Hit the psychological 10c mark - should be a nice level to consolidate around.

Institutional support/interest is now soaking up some of the retail free float.


Some of the big net buys over the last month have come from BTIG Australia and Citi Smith Barney – both major institutional brokers…

If there is one thing that makes for a powerful and importantly, sustained, re-rate of a micro-cap it is institutional support.

If I was MBE, I would really want to get a cap-raising done at these levels, to keep some of the insto’s happy and try and force a period of consolidation to avoid the share price getting out of control.

If MNW can get an oversubscribed placement away at above market, MBE should easily be able to raise $5m or so at an OK discount.

[baller18]

Some of the big net buys over the last month have come from BTIG Australia and Citi Smith Barney – both major institutional brokers…

If there is one thing that makes for a powerful and importantly, sustained, re-rate of a micro-cap it is institutional support.

If I was MBE, I would really want to get a cap-raising done at these levels, to keep some of the insto’s happy and try and force a period of consolidation to avoid the share price getting out of control.

If MNW can get an oversubscribed placement away at above market, MBE should easily be able to raise $5m or so at an OK discount.
Do you think MBE will reach 20 cents sometime steve?

[steve fleming]

Do you think MBE will reach 20 cents sometime steve?

i hope not in the short term.

fundamentally, lets say they do $1.5m - $2m EBITDA for FY14, then a pretty generous 15 or 20x will get you to 10cents ish.

Technically, it needs to do some work around that 10c / 11c level, to give it a nice base for a further advance. Hopefully that will buy it some time and there will then be some further news flow/guidance/acquisition to support a further move up.

Nothing worse than a pump which doesn't have the general fundamentals to support it, inevitably it will retrace and loose trading credibility.

longer term, they are in a good space, with a very talented, experienced, respected and well- connected team, who are developing award winning mobile products, and winning lots of repeat business as well as securing plenty of new work in both the mobile payments and mobile advertising areas...so if they can leverage this industry growth, reasonably chunky EBITDA numbers ($4/5m+) would seem achievable in a couple of years in which case the sp would be well north of 20c.

[The Big Ease]

See what the market cap would be at 20 cents. Doubt it. Large shareholders at 2 cents and below are sitting on massive profits...

In saying that, 10 cents seems to be a crucial level on the ASX as a SP then increases in .5 cent increments. If it can keep it up, big gains ahead.

Was tempted to jump in at 10 today for a few quick bucks, but am skeptical now except for short-term gain as traders are really taking over this and MKB. Question is, how high can it go on the back of the FB report before it capitulates and consolidates? No one knows unfortunately!

Should have taken my own advice a few months ago. Ah well, opportunities come and go, money to be made elsewhere! :)

Often stated on forums but it's not true.
Dart Energy recently made the rise above 10 cents and as you can see from the attached img, there are trades at smaller than half cent increments.
4863

[Entrep]

Often stated on forums but it's not true.
Dart Energy recently made the rise above 10 cents and as you can see from the attached img, there are trades at smaller than half cent increments.
4863

Yup, happens all the time on Lynas too

[randoman]

May be the case but on DB at least once over 10c I am only able to place orders at 0.5c increments. Yes there are a few trades that go through at smaller increments BUT almost all go through as moosie states and therefore the point he is making is still valid. The gains (and losses) to be made are greater once the 10c barrier is hit.

I believe those are Centre Point trades: http://www.asx.com.au/services/trading-services/asx-centre-point.htm

[catbert]

I believe those are Centre Point trades: http://www.asx.com.au/services/trading-services/asx-centre-point.htm

That's right. Bids and offers can only be made in half-cent increments, as stated, but the Centre Point system allows some block matches to be executed between those values (i.e. at the 0.25 and 0.75 levels).

[stoploss]

Looks like MKB has reached its maximum velocity for now. MBE is starting to hit a ceiling as well. Nice market caps on both compared to a mere 2 months ago. Amazing what a market leaders report can do to an entire sector! It's going to be long-term now who can hold their profits up the best and take maximum market share. Some big valuations already put out on both companies, so would wait a bit until buying in (below 10 cents for both).

Moosie why is it hitting the ceiling ? trading at a 5 year high hasn't backed off .....

[stoploss]

Sorry, meant more MKB than MBE. Does the market cap not seem fully valued to you though? Traders are trading this stock hard...

MBE:



1-Week Range (Low - High):

8.7 - 11.5



4-Week Range:

6.6 - 11.5



26-Week Range:

1.8 - 11.5



52-Week Range:

1.8 - 11.5





MKB:



1-Week Range (Low - High):

10 - 14.5



4-Week Range:

9 - 15



26-Week Range:

2.3 - 15



52-Week Range:

2 - 15





tbh no idea on the valuation, what I have is a free carry happy to let it ride . But seems to me some momentum here- be bullish a weekly closing high 12 cents here we come ........

[Copper]

P/E ratio getting pretty high, P/S ratio isn't toooooo bad. The market is going to get better for the next few years, and MBE is already making a profit and is capturing 88% YoY so I can see it being a good growth stock for sure. Wouldn't initiate a position at these levels though.

Moosie....With Facebook going great guns could we see MKB and MBE both overshoot current prices in short term. Nothing to do with charts just hungry punters.Perhaps 14 or 15 on both.Your charts would be over extended in every way then. Wouldn't they.

[stoploss]

Looks like MKB has reached its maximum velocity for now. MBE is starting to hit a ceiling as well. Nice market caps on both compared to a mere 2 months ago. Amazing what a market leaders report can do to an entire sector! It's going to be long-term now who can hold their profits up the best and take maximum market share. Some big valuations already put out on both companies, so would wait a bit until buying in (below 10 cents for both).

Forget the ceiling we're going through the roof .....the roof the roof....

[steve fleming]

P/E is nearly 100 now. Can MBE manage 100%+ growth in its revenue this year? That's a solid no! We're entering bubble territory. If you don't hold a position, stay well away and DO NOT chase performance. If you do, hold on and watch for a top before selling! :t_up:

I have them at about 20x EBITDA, certainly not cheap, but I wouldn't call it a bubble.

So much will depend on their Q1 update they have said they will provide in October. If MBE can demonstrate a continuation of the revenue/profit/cash flow growth they recorded in Q4 of FY13 then momentum will continue. If not there will be some pain.

I still think they should do/should have done a capital raising. Maybe they are waiting for their Q1 update, which is a good sign.

[stoploss]

Trading at 14 cents now. Traders trading just for the heck of it to see how high they can take this puppy?
Moosie you might have to let it go , or otherwise you could be agonising for a long time if this is a success...
imagine if you thought AAPL was a bubble when it went from 10 to $ 20 , then 20>40, 40>80.....100>200, 200>400....700 ish
and I probably missed a share split in there somewhere......

[Copper]

Trading at 14 cents now. Traders trading just for the heck of it to see how high they can take this puppy?

Moosie,what do you base the comment that it's all traders as against just plain buying and selling orders. The turnover isn't that high.Just interested....

[Copper]

Pretty obvious with the amount and size of lots going through that they're being parcelled out in order to get the best price possible in the market. ~3-8% turnover a day is pretty high in my books, and this has been going on for 2 1/2 months now!

Many tks....

[Copper]

And now a price enquiry by Elvis himself! Oh, it gets funnier! :eek2:

Moosie....I know its not appropriate to mention it on this site but if the traders are in this market dealing in 2/3/400,000 lots ,it begs the question as to what would happen on our other favorite site should this momentum come about.The individual turnover volumes seem very high in this stock. Do they in that western country deal in greater amounts.
Kind regards...
Having a quiet white wine as against you reds.Hope you don't mind.

[Copper]

Moosie...helpful and delightful comment,many tks....

[steve fleming]

Some of the big net buys over the last month have come from BTIG Australia and Citi Smith Barney – both major institutional brokers…

If there is one thing that makes for a powerful and importantly, sustained, re-rate of a micro-cap it is institutional support.

If I was MBE, I would really want to get a cap-raising done at these levels, to keep some of the insto’s happy and try and force a period of consolidation to avoid the share price getting out of control.

If MNW can get an oversubscribed placement away at above market, MBE should easily be able to raise $5m or so at an OK discount.

From the AR today "The company has enjoyed strong investor support from brokers, fund managers and investors which hastranslated at the date of writing this report into a 400% increase in share price from July 1st 2013 "

As said previously, strong institutional support is critical for a sustained re-rate

Soaks up the flighty retail free float

[Copper]

From the AR today "The company has enjoyed strong investor support from brokers, fund managers and investors which hastranslated at the date of writing this report into a 400% increase in share price from July 1st 2013 "

As said previously, strong institutional support is critical for a sustained re-rate

Soaks up the flighty retail free float

After a churn we seem to be off to another burst.This may test the charts and the chartists.The turnover will raise some eyes.

[stoploss]

From the AR today "The company has enjoyed strong investor support from brokers, fund managers and investors which hastranslated at the date of writing this report into a 400% increase in share price from July 1st 2013 "

As said previously, strong institutional support is critical for a sustained re-rate

Soaks up the flighty retail free float
Massive volume day today , looks like maybe another insto joining the party.

[stoploss]

others joining the party now. ABN is on my watchlist ;)
Moosie, you don't make any money watching . Disc, holding and trading ABN.

[stoploss]

This sector is blowing up, it's unbelievable!!!

Yea getting a bit rich for me, have sold some this am @ 17.5 and 18.5. Left with 5% of the original holding. This is am amazingly hot industry , but think I might get a chance to get some of these back lower.
If not ces't la vie

[winner69]

Greater fool theory in effect me thinks... :eek2:

You having a good day with your people descriptions .....oh well ....a greater fool just bought some of mine.....a 7 bagger was just too much to ignore

Only sold enough to get the original small stake back ...bit sad though as I liked holding a mill of these ....but never mind still a fortune to be made methinks ...unless I am the greater fool by Not selling selling the lot

Still not really understand the drivers of what generates their cash flows ....but the market segment to be in eh

[Copper]

Greater fool theory in effect me thinks... :eek2:

How does your chart system keep up with all this. Even dart throwing wouldn't work.By the way many tks for mentioning them at 6 cents or so.Let a few go at 18 to make up for the Snakk debacle.
Regards ..

[winner69]

good on ya winner, nicely done! yup, buy low, sell high is the game. I'm saying greater fool for the near term at least. long term, different prospect.

Spose you had a bit to play in this ....if the SNK thing wasn't so hyped up I wouldn't even looked at this industry ...but SNK really did seem hype when Steve pointed out MBE and how cheap it was relative to SNK ....so took a punt with some spare cash and the rest is history

Thanks ...if I ever get to Napier I buy the drinks and chips ...no cake

[Copper]

I'm very tempted. might buy some off you tomorrow stoploss ;)

disc holding tons of DIL and waiting for the payoff

Ooooooooh Moosie. I have just watched TV 3 news.Hope all OK...

[Copper]

Spose you had a bit to play in this ....if the SNK thing wasn't so hyped up I wouldn't even looked at this industry ...but SNK really did seem hype when Steve pointed out MBE and how cheap it was relative to SNK ....so took a punt with some spare cash and the rest is history

Thanks ...if I ever get to Napier I buy the drinks and chips ...no cake

A lovely post and all I can say is that Moosie will have a great party one day. Hopefully soon.
Kindest regards
Copper..........

[soulman]

You having a good day with your people descriptions .....oh well ....a greater fool just bought some of mine.....a 7 bagger was just too much to ignore

Only sold enough to get the original small stake back ...bit sad though as I liked holding a mill of these ....but never mind still a fortune to be made methinks ...unless I am the greater fool by Not selling selling the lot

Still not really understand the drivers of what generates their cash flows ....but the market segment to be in eh

Seems to be the opposite for ABN. Profit taker moves in in the second half.

The market are irrational and not efficient.

The price of any stock is driven by supply and demand. MBE going through $100 mil cap and in the 30's are all possible. I wished I hold on the first lot I first purchased for 3.6 on the 25th Jul.

Really think ABN is also in the 'bluehorse shoe' play as MBE and MKB. MKB current in TH re: material transaction and cap raising.

[steve fleming]

The price of any stock is driven by supply and demand. MBE going through $100 mil cap and in the 30's are all possible. I wished I hold on the first lot I first purchased for 3.6 on the 25th Jul.
.

Getting close to a 10-bagger for me for the parcels i brought at 1.9c.....if it gets to 21c will be the second ten bagger for me for 2013 after CAJ

(though well short of my personal best record in 2010 of four 10-baggers)

[stoploss]

Getting close to a 10-bagger for me for the parcels i brought at 1.9c.....if it gets to 21c will be the second ten bagger for me for 2013 after CAJ

(though well short of my personal best record in 2010 of four 10-baggers)
Steve been out had far too many beers , just wanted to say you are a bloody legend .
Took some profit on MBE today, traded ABN and still holding it .Thanks very much
for your insight on these stocks .
Cheers. S/L

[biker]

Spose you had a bit to play in this ....if the SNK thing wasn't so hyped up I wouldn't even looked at this industry ...but SNK really did seem hype when Steve pointed out MBE and how cheap it was relative to SNK ....so took a punt with some spare cash and the rest is history

Thanks ...if I ever get to Napier I buy the drinks and chips ...no cake

I have to thank you too moosie. I got into MBE at 7c after your 'heads up' during the early SNK debacle. They have covered my SNK paper losses and a lot more.
Keep up the good work!
May you prosper.

[Copper]

Getting close to a 10-bagger for me for the parcels i brought at 1.9c.....if it gets to 21c will be the second ten bagger for me for 2013 after CAJ

(though well short of my personal best record in 2010 of four 10-baggers)

I was looking at MNZ and it reminded me of your post.A great record .Do you have the odd negative little carry-on bag or are you a stop loss king.I never seem to get both sides of the equation right.
Kind regards.....

[steve fleming]

Steve been out had far too many beers , just wanted to say you are a bloody legend .
Took some profit on MBE today, traded ABN and still holding it .Thanks very much
for your insight on these stocks .
Cheers. S/L

no worries S/L, good idea to take some profits

hope you find a good place to re-invest the proceeds!

[steve fleming]

I was looking at MNZ and it reminded me of your post.A great record .Do you have the odd negative little carry-on bag or are you a stop loss king.I never seem to get both sides of the equation right.
Kind regards.....

Hi Copper
Everyone has their different investing/trading style, but I never use stop lossses...I have other ways of minimising risk, including carefully managing my position sizes, having a diversified portfolio, and ensuring that at my entry price the fundamentals/valuation provide far more upside than possible downside.

However, if the story changes or management do not deliver I do cut my losses and exit (ie ADQ)

cheers

[stoploss]

22.5 opening today? Dear Lord! :eek2:

That's with a speeding ticket too........

[steve fleming]

That's with a speeding ticket too........

Wowww...trading update...

Q1 revenue of $4.5million up 61% from $2.8million in the previous corresponding period, Q1 of FY2013.

Q1 EBITDA of $0.920million up from a loss of $84,000 in the previous corresponding period Q1 of FY2013, showing a strong turnaround of $1M.

"Mobile Embrace has started its financial year with strong revenues and profits and we expect this trend to continue. In the first quarter of FY14 we have delivered nearly our total FY13 EBITDA result, and delivered a 109% increase on total FY13 NPBT providing a solid foundation for the FY14 year" said CEO Chris Thorpe. "

Impressive!!!

[steve fleming]

Wowww...trading update...

Q1 revenue of $4.5million up 61% from $2.8million in the previous corresponding period, Q1 of FY2013.

Q1 EBITDA of $0.920million up from a loss of $84,000 in the previous corresponding period Q1 of FY2013, showing a strong turnaround of $1M.

"Mobile Embrace has started its financial year with strong revenues and profits and we expect this trend to continue. In the first quarter of FY14 we have delivered nearly our total FY13 EBITDA result, and delivered a 109% increase on total FY13 NPBT providing a solid foundation for the FY14 year" said CEO Chris Thorpe. "

Impressive!!!

Key take out here for me is that it confirms that their business model is working.

I.e. Evidence that the revenues and profit are now leveraged to the increase in mobile payments/advertsing activity

So revenues/profits hould continue to grow as mobile activity continues to grow

tradign on 15x on conservative FY14 forecast EBITDA ($4m) so m/cap is not excessive

[steve fleming]

Problem is the lofty valuations didn't stack up and now the SP is taking a hammering. When this fall bottoms out she will be a buy for sure. The story is working, and working well. Unfortunately it looks like someone will be holding 23 for awhile as they bought at the top!


Yeah, over cooked at 23c.

Be interesting to see where it settles over the next couple of days once the t+3’s from last Wednesday/Thursday are out.

M/cap $6om
EBITDA around $4m ish

At $4m EBITDA starting to get reasonably chunky. I really like it when stocks can into that space. 20% margins are increasing

Think MBE should be compared more with the likes of MNW, with its ‘clip the ticket’ mobile payment commissions, rather than as a mobile ad stock (which makes up only 25% of revenues)

[steve fleming]

I’ll take an 18c close – pretty much where it was last Thursday.

Healthy re-trace on huge volume provides a nice base, closed well off its lows

Feel far more comfortable holding this stock now than I did last week.

Great earnings profile developing…..I like it when small cap stocks get to this stage of starting to earning chunky and growing EBITDA… it’s a nice sweet spot – good things seem to happen to them !

[steve fleming]

It would be nice though if MBE put a bit more detail into their updates around what is driving the performance and the trends they are seeing.

Apart form the numbers there was not a lot there.

I am still struggling a bit with the seasonality of the business. Ie Q4 13 v Q1 14.

I would expect Q2 to be relatively strong capitalising on the lead up to Xmas and some post election green shoots in confidence/advertising

[steve fleming]

Just as some very very broad examples:

GRB, who are in a strong growth ramp up phase, did $2.8m EBITDA in FY13m and has a m/c of $100m.
　
RFL, who are in strong growth ramp up phase, did $3.6m EBITDA in FY13m and has a m/c of $72m.
　
So MBE, with a m/c of $60m and say FY14 forecast EBITDA of $4m ish, is not out of the ball park.
　
I say that because there is a perception (particularly on hot copper, but I saw also TBF had a pretty poor thought out post on it as well) that this is a big tech bubble.
　
It may be the case for other stocks, but in the case of MBE, its valuation can be justified ( on the assumption that its earnings profile is substantially increasing – which today’s update suggests it is).

[stoploss]

Just as some very very broad examples:

GRB, who are in a strong growth ramp up phase, did $2.8m EBITDA in FY13m and has a m/c of $100m.
　
RFL, who are in strong growth ramp up phase, did $3.6m EBITDA in FY13m and has a m/c of $72m.
　
So MBE, with a m/c of $60m and say FY14 forecast EBITDA of $4m ish, is not out of the ball park.
　
I say that because there is a perception (particularly on hot copper, but I saw also TBF had a pretty poor thought out post on it as well) that this is a big tech bubble.
　
It may be the case for other stocks, but in the case of MBE, its valuation can be justified ( on the assumption that its earnings profile is substantially increasing – which today’s update suggests it is).

Thanks Steve. - agree there are multiple players in the industry not all will win... Thanks for pointing out that this is not just mobile advertising . I like the mobile payment side to this business.

[Pods]

Hey guys. I've been following your comments for the last few weeks after I found your thread whilst looking for more info on MBE.

This year hast o be the year. After trading MBE around 2010/2011, I started to stockpile MBE. What I have been trying to understand is, what is their value or what is a fair multiple of their EBITDA.

Multiples r going to be different for different orgs, sector ect. In MBEs case, their multiple will be determined by the markets perception if it's growth rate. That is, if we take the 2014 financial year, it's probably reasonable to assume an EBITDA OF $4m. At a share price of $0.20 that is approx a multiple of 15ish. I would argue for a growth stock, that is undervalued. Because if you think, for e.g 15% growth per quarter (60 / 4 based on last update) then 2014 revenues could be 22m if the growth stays at the same level. But then what for 2015. Even if growth is a little less, is it unreasonable to think 2015 won't see EBIDA OF 8m? Confirmation will be had in the forth coming updates, bu I would have to say its likely.

Butt the market as we all know is not efficient, it predicts the future. So it will predict MBEs fortunes by either pushing the price up or down... And I don't see any reason to push it down. They will want to get in at these cheap prices before it's too obvious what price MBE should be valued at.

With zero debt and more money to spend on marketing hence more sales etc. Plus I fully expect MBE to make some purchases. Growth through acquisition it's he next phase. Just gotta build up some cash.

[Pods]

Also, I have been trying to incorporate some technical analysis into my reckoning. if you look at the 10 year chart, did anyone notice a probable resistance level at 13.5c? Which was the price that they had stalled at or around last week and the week prior before accelerating towards 19c.

The next big point at where resistance starts is 23c, which was yesterday's high and which appears to have triggered the decline yesterday.

Look for further resistance at 23c and then if it pushes higher... Then it's essentially in uncharted territory and all about fundamentals.

[Copper]

Also, I have been trying to incorporate some technical analysis into my reckoning. if you look at the 10 year chart, did anyone notice a probable resistance level at 13.5c? Which was the price that they had stalled at or around last week and the week prior before accelerating towards 19c.

The next big point at where resistance starts is 23c, which was yesterday's high and which appears to have triggered the decline yesterday.

Look for further resistance at 23c and then if it pushes higher... Then it's essentially in uncharted territory and all about fundamentals.

Pods personally I think that to analyze this current market can be a time consuming waste of time.With MBE yesterday or day before you would have seen it go from 18 to 22 and think it was going higher,go to lunch on the prospect and return to it being 16 seller. It makes a dear lunch.Perhaps four grands worth.It may be weeks or a month or so before his lot cools down and then a bit of analysis of the wreckage or otherwise may be realistic.
Kind regards....

[Pods]

I'm not a technical analysis fan, but I used it on RFL this year and it worked a charm..., that is, it only really helped me confirm that RFL was trending higher. But it was fundamentals that had me interested from the start. I see MBE as the same. They'll go higher again shortly. I'd say within a week they'll hit the 23c mark again, then hover on it for a while before pushing higher to 30c. I'd be disappointed if they didn't go to 30 within 3.5 weeks. At 30c they're still only valued at 23 times their potential EBIDTA of $4m but I think we're all in agreement it is likely to be higher than that and given the manner in which all of MBEs markets r exploding in growth, a multiple of 25 wouldn't be outrageous.

[steve fleming]

I'm not a technical analysis fan, but I used it on RFL this year and it worked a charm..., that is, it only really helped me confirm that RFL was trending higher. But it was fundamentals that had me interested from the start. I see MBE as the same. They'll go higher again shortly. I'd say within a week they'll hit the 23c mark again, then hover on it for a while before pushing higher to 30c. I'd be disappointed if they didn't go to 30 within 3.5 weeks. At 30c they're still only valued at 23 times their potential EBIDTA of $4m but I think we're all in agreement it is likely to be higher than that and given the manner in which all of MBEs markets r exploding in growth, a multiple of 25 wouldn't be outrageous.

Hi Pods

MBE's earnings momentum is strong, price momentum is strong, sector momentum is strong….MBE is in a good place…no need to place too much pressure on it

Yesterday's result proved that the strong Q413 result was not a one off, and has given some good credibility to the stock.

My personal view is that 15 – 20x EBITDA is fine for MBE at this stage..there is a fair bit of earnings uncertainty as it doesn’t have a consistent earnings track record, and Management give little away as to what is driving earnings., which makes it difficult to assess how scalable earnings are, and the impact of seasonality. I prefer stocks to be priced on undemanding multiples rather than ‘priced for perfection’…too high multiples results in too much downside risk.

However, I agree that the market is likely to take this a lot higher

[steve fleming]

https://www.facebook.com/TheBoatFund


"Mobile Embrace (MBE) - is a business-to-business and business-to-consumer provider of an integrated mobile and digital communications products and services. MBE made a $370k profit in FY13, has hardly any cash, generated a negative $1.47M operating cash-flow, and yet is capitalized at $60M. Shares went from 2c to 20c in the last 6 months!"

It appears that TBF is struggling with the concept that the market is forward looking - which is a bit of a worry.

[stoploss]

https://www.facebook.com/TheBoatFund


"Mobile Embrace (MBE) - is a business-to-business and business-to-consumer provider of an integrated mobile and digital communications products and services. MBE made a $370k profit in FY13, has hardly any cash, generated a negative $1.47M operating cash-flow, and yet is capitalized at $60M. Shares went from 2c to 20c in the last 6 months!"

It appears that TBF is struggling with the concept that the market is forward looking - which is a bit of a worry.

take out the recent cash raising , what would they make of XRO ?

[Pods]

I was ready to buy another 500,000 at 16.5c when they hit that level or even 17c yesterday. If only i had that type of money lying around.

[biker]

26c today. This has performed as well as PEB! (NZX)
I bought as a bit of an after thought at 7c after a heads up from Moosie on the SNK (NZX) thread.
What an amazing ride! Nowhere near as much invested here, mainly because of an almost complete lack of DYOR. Maybe these ARE really crazy times.

[winner69]

26c today. This has performed as well as PEB! (NZX)
I bought as a bit of an after thought at 7c after a heads up from Moosie on the SNK (NZX) thread.
What an amazing ride! Nowhere near as much invested here, mainly because of an almost complete lack of DYOR. Maybe these ARE really crazy times.

PEB still has a long way to go ..... trebled my money in PEB but MBE is now a 10 bagger plus ....like PEB being 5 bucks in my case

Yes these times are really crazy .... really crazy

And I still don't really know what the drivers of MBE profit ....but who cares

[blocker3]

PEB still has a long way to go ..... trebled my money in PEB but MBE is now a 10 bagger plus ....like PEB being 5 bucks in my case

Yes these times are really crazy .... really crazy

And I still don't really know what the drivers of MBE profit ....but who cares



I hope all goes well for me also

[steve fleming]

WARNING WARNING WARNING

Please be aware of "pump and dump". Lock in your stop losses in NOW. I am running at at a 20% stop loss and it is updated daily. Cheers
I hope all goes well for me also

???

it retraced over 20% this week (from 0.265 to 0.20 = 24.5% ) so how come you are still holding?

people have been calling this a p'n'd since 3 cents, but as long as they keep demonstrating earnings growth then I can't see any massive dumping.

sector momentum + earnings momentum + price momentum = a winning stock

[blocker3]

???

it retraced over 20% this week (from 0.265 to 0.20 = 24.5% ) so how come you are still holding?

people have been calling this a p'n'd since 3 cents, but as long as they keep demonstrating earnings growth then I can't see any massive dumping.

sector momentum + earnings momentum + price momentum = a winning stock

I have made my first purchase at 0.215 a couple of days ago. I have also purchased MKB at 0.155. (Late started to this Share) Cheers

[stoploss]

Steve don't waste your time with this poster, check out posts 2149,2152 on the SNK thread.... been calling MBE a P & D for a long time after selling out to sit long that real winner SNK by the looks of things.........
DISC-still holding and very happy.

[stoploss]

I have made my first purchase at 0.215 a couple of days ago. I have also purchased MKB at 0.155. (Late started to this Share) Cheers

So which post are you bull s....g us in then blocker3 ?????? I think you are on the wrong forum for this sort of behaviour .
02-10-2013, 10:37 AM #2149 (http://www.sharetrader.co.nz/showthread.php?8953-Snakk&p=430570&viewfull=1#post430570)
blocker3 (http://www.sharetrader.co.nz/member.php?12684-blocker3)
http://www.sharetrader.co.nz/images/statusicon/user-online.png
Junior Member http://www.sharetrader.co.nz/images/reputation/reputation_pos.png Join DateSep 2013Posts15

http://www.sharetrader.co.nz/images/icons/icon1.png
I give up. I like the future for this company. But this morning I sold down. MBE (ASX) yesterday was a fast trading day to watch .The ASX also asked MBE whats going on with 17 m shares being traded.It was a frenzy. MBE is the fast lane and I am not quiet ready for
it yet.

[blocker3]

So which post are you bull s....g us in then blocker3 ?????? I think you are on the wrong forum for this sort of behaviour .
02-10-2013, 10:37 AM #2149 (http://www.sharetrader.co.nz/showthread.php?8953-Snakk&p=430570&viewfull=1#post430570)
blocker3 (http://www.sharetrader.co.nz/member.php?12684-blocker3)
http://www.sharetrader.co.nz/images/statusicon/user-online.png
Junior Member http://www.sharetrader.co.nz/images/reputation/reputation_pos.png Join DateSep 2013Posts15

http://www.sharetrader.co.nz/images/icons/icon1.png
I give up. I like the future for this company. But this morning I sold down. MBE (ASX) yesterday was a fast trading day to watch .The ASX also asked MBE whats going on with 17 m shares being traded.It was a frenzy. MBE is the fast lane and I am not quiet ready for
it yet.


I was trying to be helpful.This stock is going up fast and I was trying to warn people that it could sink fast also. Cheers

[steve fleming]

Blocker, theres your 20% retrace (from 29.5 to 23.5) as traders get bored...volume and volatility has fallen away

hopefullly your stop loss has got hit.

[Pods]

Blocker, theres your 20% retrace (from 29.5 to 23.5) as traders get bored...volume and volatility has fallen away

hopefullly your stop loss has got hit.

What's your take on this Steve?

I'm holding my MBE, however momentum appears to have dropped, more severely than at any other time in the last 3 months. You can see this by looking at the MACD of MNW. The MACD line has clearly transitioned to below signal line - it hasn't done that since it started this upward trend. There certainly appears to be less activity in the rest of the sector. However I know things can change fast. I noticed FB had a report out recently that revenue surged 60% primarily off the back of Mobile Adds... But I think if that was expected to give the market a boost it might have done so yesterday.

MNW also had their Annual Report out Yesterday/Today. They've lost 3.4ish million this year. No doubt next year will be better, but i'm not sure if they'll be profitable. They've also got $5m in short term loans. So they've got more debt then there revenues and they're loosing nearly that every year. How they're valued more than MBE is puzzling as it seems profitability is some way off yet. Ever since they cracked 30c I thought they were overvalued. But it's hard to say.

[Entrep]

What's your take on this Steve?

I'm holding my MBE, however momentum appears to have dropped, more severely than at any other time in the last 3 months. You can see this by looking at the MACD of MNW. The MACD line has clearly transitioned to below signal line - it hasn't done that since it started this upward trend. There certainly appears to be less activity in the rest of the sector. However I know things can change fast. I noticed FB had a report out recently that revenue surged 60% primarily off the back of Mobile Adds... But I think if that was expected to give the market a boost it might have done so yesterday.

MNW also had their Annual Report out Yesterday/Today. They've lost 3.4ish million this year. No doubt next year will be better, but i'm not sure if they'll be profitable. They've also got $5m in short term loans. So they've got more debt then there revenues and they're loosing nearly that every year. How they're valued more than MBE is puzzling as it seems profitability is some way off yet. Ever since they cracked 30c I thought they were overvalued. But it's hard to say.

The whole mobile craze seems to have died the past 1-2 weeks.

[tosspot]

Not so much with mkb they still seem to be going strong but I think will cap about 26c

[blocker3]

Blocker, theres your 20% retrace (from 29.5 to 23.5) as traders get bored...volume and volatility has fallen away

hopefullly your stop loss has got hit.

Yes it did.Cheers

[steve fleming]

What's your take on this Steve?

I'm holding my MBE, however momentum appears to have dropped, more severely than at any other time in the last 3 months. You can see this by looking at the MACD of MNW. The MACD line has clearly transitioned to below signal line - it hasn't done that since it started this upward trend. There certainly appears to be less activity in the rest of the sector. However I know things can change fast. I noticed FB had a report out recently that revenue surged 60% primarily off the back of Mobile Adds... But I think if that was expected to give the market a boost it might have done so yesterday.

MNW also had their Annual Report out Yesterday/Today. They've lost 3.4ish million this year. No doubt next year will be better, but i'm not sure if they'll be profitable. They've also got $5m in short term loans. So they've got more debt then there revenues and they're loosing nearly that every year. How they're valued more than MBE is puzzling as it seems profitability is some way off yet. Ever since they cracked 30c I thought they were overvalued. But it's hard to say.

Momentum is definitely gone....five down/sideways days in a row....23.5 is important, as that is the level it spiked to in its first burst above 20c.

However, hopefully supported fundamentally at these levels (ie 15 - 20 x EBITDA)

Also, AGM is next week, i'll probably pop along, hopefully they'll have some news to coincide with the AGM

Have sold a fair chunk on the way up, but kind of locked in now, as for every $1 I sell, have to pay close to 50% tax...need to manage that tax situation carefully

[blocker3]

Is there a trading halt on due to the announcement?

[clip]

Looks like lots of trading going on shown in ASB Securities so not that i'm aware of. Anouncement is already up/out

[bottlerboy]

Mobile Embrace Launches m-Payments in the USA

http://hotcopper.com.au/announcementFiles/2013/MBE/d14322c9-a7e6-4f76-bae4-a83d3820f902-MBE765608.pdf

[clip]

Have been considering selling some MBE to free up funds for other ventures, wonder how high we'll see today or if growth will continue over the week? be nice if we could break through 0.27. Pretty strong buyer depth currently

[scott1111]

I hope we find that these sellers are profit takers and looking forward we will see a rise in SP. Fingers crossed

[clip]

Anyone been watching this/care to shed some light on why the SP has been dropping this afternoon, have not been able to ascertain whether this happened before or after the AGM results were released

Highlights (Unaudited)

Q1 revenue of $4.5million up 61% from $2.8million in the previous corresponding Q1 of
2012

Q1 EBITDA of $0.920million up from a loss of $84,000 in the previous corresponding Q1
of 2012 showing a strong turnaround of $1M.

Q1 NPBT of $0.830million up from a loss of $183,000 over the previous corresponding
Q1 last year showing a strong turnaround of $1.013M.

Q1 NPBT of $0.830million is a 109% increase on the total NPBT FY13 results of
$398,000

from my point of view these look pretty good, and would be a reason for the SP to rise or at least stay level? cheers

[tosspot]

yea MKB tanked aswell which Im holding. unsure whether its going to be a mobile correction or just a swing. bit nervous though

[tosspot]

correction time! the conpanies haven't lived up to their lofty valuations. this tme 3 months ago (weirdly enough, around quarterly announcement time...) they were undervalued all to hell. now, they are overvalued! good old oscillations my friends, fair value lie somewhere in the middle ground. glad I bit the bullet and bought SNK today, well undervalued compared to its peers and I suspect the last company to undergo a major rerate as funds flow out of these Oz companies. get in while you can ;)

disc - holding SNK and no other mibile ad companies
Riiiiiight sounds like a bit of a stock pump there. oh no the mobile sector is bubbling but my chosen one isnt. I guess only time will tell where it goes

[steve fleming]

I attended the AGM – all the execs and chariman seem positive, but also very grounded (despite the meteoric share price rise) and focused on expanding the business.


Interested to hear they now have a team of 11 developers in Vietnam (at a monthly cost of $2k per FTE vs $9k per FTE if they were in Australia) focused on developing a pipeline of innovative mobile products.


Explained how that for a total mobile ad campaign MBE would receive 35% to 40% of the total campaign budget say ($100k) for undertaking the creative development and placing the ads on the premium inventory that MBE control (ie NZ herald/APN , BBC , Rovio/Angry birds). MBE have first mover advantage in the Aus market.


However the real growth is going to come from the m-payments side – this is where huge operating leverage is available and can be rolled out globally (as opposed to just Aus / NZ parts of Asia for the mobile advertising). The Sprint deal is a milestone given the size of the market (Sprint customers can purchase MBE marketed products (ie games, apps, and potentially a huge range of new content that is being developed) and then get charged to their Sprint telephone account. MBE then gets remitted their portion from Sprint post month end.


Oct and Nov to date tracking to budget, so the $4m EBITDA should hopefully be locked down now. I get the feeling that momentum is building and back end of FY14 as Sprint comes on line could see upside.


Also interesting, and a big take out for me, was towards the end of the AGM presentation there is a list of potential risks to the business model – Chris Thorpe said that he can’t see any of these potential risks impacting MBE in the near future.


Nicely priced now at 15 x EBITDA, but obviously momentum is stuffed (something like only 2 up days in the last 3 weeks) as traders move on to the next hot tech stock (SPA , ESN) and as investors take profits

[Joshuatree]

Excellent , thanks for sharing this Steve.

[Entrep]

MBE must be low on on cash? Pretty sure they had under $200K mid-year

[Pods]

correction time! the conpanies haven't lived up to their lofty valuations. this tme 3 months ago (weirdly enough, around quarterly announcement time...) they were undervalued all to hell. now, they are overvalued! good old oscillations my friends, fair value lie somewhere in the middle ground. glad I bit the bullet and bought SNK today, well undervalued compared to its peers and I suspect the last company to undergo a major rerate as funds flow out of these Oz companies. get in while you can ;)

disc - holding SNK and no other mibile ad companies

In my mind many are over valued. Take MNW. They got to over 40c. They made a net loss this year of 3.3/3.4 million. Do they even deserve to be above 20c? Theres no telling how much revenue they'll make for FY14, no doubt it'll be substantially above FY13 but enough to break even? I doubt it. They've got a longer path to travel to profitability than others.

Mobile Embrace's EBITDA this year looks like it will be in the 3.5-4 million range, which would mean at 20c their multiple would be approx 16-18. Which for a company that has shown strong Revenue and EBITDA in an industry that is literally exploding (although has not yet caught up to the growth happening in the US and the UK) - I would suggest they've been heavily over sold.

What is happening is that the Mobile Market is going through a correction and they're all getting caught up. Also, the ASX Small Cap 200, which I believe a lot of these stocks find themselves, has experienced a small correction it's self over the same timeframe that these organisations experienced a momentum correction. Because this correction seems to be effecting the small caps, it's likely I think it'll effect the smaller of these and particularly the microcaps more than others.

I wouldn't be surprised to see MBE hit 18c but to see it go lower would be... well irrational - hmmm so maybe we can expect this then? The market is not rational after all. Logic tells me if I had money i'd be buying at these prices, but it may not be the lowest it will go. Long term, good stock. Short term, volatile. Nothing changes then from 3/4 months ago.

[Pods]

MBE must be low on on cash? Pretty sure they had under $200K mid-year

That's a long time ago.



Cash at bank as at Sept 30 is $1.089 million, with receivables of $2.7 million and creditors of $0.83 million.


There is nothing about this stock that would have me selling my considerable position. I would say it is speculation that is driving them down more so than anything, which is fueled by a mobile correction and a slump in Small Cap/Micro Cap activity.

[steve fleming]

MBEs M-payment business:

MBE works with content providers to develop various digital products and services. These products can include anything from games, huge variety of apps such as weather forecasts or one that was mentioned at the AGM being lotto results to Asian customers which is apparently a big market...basically the opportunities to monetize digital products and services is endless.


MBE then promotes/ markets / advertises these products. They have a trading desk that buys/ sells advertising space and thus can profile target their marketing. As part of the mobile development, MBE integrates its mobile payment platform into the advertising.


The MBE mobile payment platform allows ( with the agreement of carriers ) the customer to buy the app / game / product and be charged to their own mobile phone account with the relevant carrier ( Telstra , Optus , Sprint). The MBE mobile payment platform also allows payment by Paypal or credit card if not on a supported carrier


At the end of the month, the carrier does a reconciliation and remits MBEs amount to MBE. The carrier receives a commission for their role in facilitating the transaction


MBE has a big team in Vietnam working on developing these digital products.


As MBE develops more products, and as they sign up more carriers, and as more people make mobile payments then MBE gets more revenues.

the ability to scale up this business is mind blowing - increasing revenues by $10 m will require only a handful extra head count, and margins are likely to exceed 50%

This has been 10 years of development in the making....

[steve fleming]

Nice posts Pods

also great to finally see a small white candle for MBE today ( on a Friday, and an ASX down day) after two weeks of the share price constantly getting smashed on the close to finish on its lows.

[blocker3]

I attended the AGM – all the execs and chariman seem positive, but also very grounded (despite the meteoric share price rise) and focused on expanding the business.


Interested to hear they now have a team of 11 developers in Vietnam (at a monthly cost of $2k per FTE vs $9k per FTE if they were in Australia) focused on developing a pipeline of innovative mobile products.


Explained how that for a total mobile ad campaign MBE would receive 35% to 40% of the total campaign budget say ($100k) for undertaking the creative development and placing the ads on the premium inventory that MBE control (ie NZ herald/APN , BBC , Rovio/Angry birds). MBE have first mover advantage in the Aus market.


However the real growth is going to come from the m-payments side – this is where huge operating leverage is available and can be rolled out globally (as opposed to just Aus / NZ parts of Asia for the mobile advertising). The Sprint deal is a milestone given the size of the market (Sprint customers can purchase MBE marketed products (ie games, apps, and potentially a huge range of new content that is being developed) and then get charged to their Sprint telephone account. MBE then gets remitted their portion from Sprint post month end.


Oct and Nov to date tracking to budget, so the $4m EBITDA should hopefully be locked down now. I get the feeling that momentum is building and back end of FY14 as Sprint comes on line could see upside.


Also interesting, and a big take out for me, was towards the end of the AGM presentation there is a list of potential risks to the business model – Chris Thorpe said that he can’t see any of these potential risks impacting MBE in the near future.


Nicely priced now at 15 x EBITDA, but obviously momentum is stuffed (something like only 2 up days in the last 3 weeks) as traders move on to the next hot tech stock (SPA , ESN) and as investors take profits

Thank you for your comments regarding your attendance of the AGM Steve as well as the other recent logs. It is very good information that you have passed on. Cheers

[Pods]

Here is some more information. I came across yet another mobile advertising company being acquired and it made me wonder, with the money being splashed around for these companies, just how much money they are making themselves. Good news for all companies in this space is not much:

Take MoPub for example, which was purchased for $350 million by twitter.

Check out the following quotes:
http://venturebeat.com/2013/10/29/real-time-bidding-is-ending-mobile-performance-advertising-golden-days/


Wall Street’s credit, if you eye Mopub’s revenue – which was published in Twitter’s latest S-1 amendment (http://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1418091/000119312513406804/d564001ds1a.htm) due to its recent acquisition by the social network – Mopub was in the red in 2012, with a net loss of $8.14 million on $2.69 million net revenue.


Jump Tap has been acquired for $255 million



Jumptap, a leading mobile ad network and competitor to Mopub that was recently acquired by Millennial Media, fared no better in 2012, with $13 million in losses on a revenues of $63 million.


Interesting stuff. Just for information purposes.

[Pods]

Thank you for your comments regarding your attendance of the AGM Steve as well as the other recent logs. It is very good information that you have passed on. Cheers


I second that. Would have been great to be at the AGM.

[blocker3]

I second that. Would have been great to be at the AGM.

Good reading from your comments also Pods.Well done .Cheers

[Pods]

Cheers. Blocker3.

[Pods]

News from yesterday:

Compounded annual growth rate of 39 per cent from 2013 to 2018 for mobile advertising
http://www.arnnet.com.au/article/531562/tablets_dominate_australian_mobile_ad_spend_by_201 8/ - also predicts tablets to be 70% of mobile advertising by that time. Also states that advertising budgets for mobile are swelling and growing fast. Next year will be bigger for mobile, which is not surprising considering we lag the US/UK by some margin.

[blocker3]

News from yesterday:

Compounded annual growth rate of 39 per cent from 2013 to 2018 for mobile advertising
http://www.arnnet.com.au/article/531562/tablets_dominate_australian_mobile_ad_spend_by_201 8/ - also predicts tablets to be 70% of mobile advertising by that time. Also states that advertising budgets for mobile are swelling and growing fast. Next year will be bigger for mobile, which is not surprising considering we lag the US/UK by some margin.

Wow good information once again POD. Well done .Cheers

[steve fleming]

Mobile Embrace sees interest in advertising unit as focus remains on payments, MD says
Mergermarket.com
by Louise Weihart in Sydney

Mobile Embrace (MBE:AU), an Australian mobile payments and mobile advertising company, has had informal interest in its m-advertising business 4th Screen Advertising Australia, said MD Neil Wiles.

It is not in any discussions and has no plans to initiate a sale process at the moment, Wiles said. However, the mobile advertising space is currently seeing a lot of consolidation and so 4th Screen Advertising Australia could attract offers from larger players.

Wiles also added that Mobile Embrace’s focus is to expand its mobile payments business, Convey, into the US and other markets including Southeast Asia. Its trading desk will be run out of Sydney so it does not need a presence in international markets but has appointed a global markets manager to drive market entry.

4th Screen Advertising Australia was set up with 4th Screen Advertising UK and contributes some 25% of Mobile Embrace’s total revenue of AUD 12.2m (USD 11.4m) and total EBITDA of 0.85m. Last year, 4th Screen Advertising UK was acquired by Norwegian mobile browser company Opera Software. Prior to the sale, 4th Screen Advertising Australia’s relationship had evolved to become a marketing and technology partnership with Mobile Embrace retaining 100%. Opera also bought San Mateo, CA-based AdMarvel in 2010. In April this year, Baltimore, MA-based Millennial Media (MM:NYSE) bought Jumptap, in a deal valuing 22.5% of the company at USD 209m.

Deals in the space tend to be on multiples of revenue, Wiles said, citing Mountain View, CA-based Google’s (GOOG:NASDAQ) 2009 purchase of Admob for USD 750m, at a net revenue multiple of 18.8X; Cupertino, CA-based Apple’s (AAPL:NASDAQ) 2010 purchase of Quattro Wireless for USD 275m, at a net revenue multiple 13.1X; and Singtel’s (ST:SGX) purchase this September of Amobee for USD 321m, at a net revenue multiple of 10.7X.

Mobile Embrace’s market cap has increased from some AUD 17m in August this year to AUD 62m now. Wiles attributed this to a correction on its valuation, to its growth in revenue and profit, and to significant growth and growth projections for the mobile industry including mobile payments and transacting.

[blocker3]

More good research. Cheers Steve

[Pods]

Where did that come from Steve? I can't find that anywhere.

I actually hope they don't sell. I think with the expansion into Asia their mobile ad business is going to boom and I'd prefer to see Mobile Embrace making some strategic acquisitions themselves.

[steve fleming]

Interesting article - perhaps explains why MBE are focussing on the higher margin, scalable m-payments business, rather than the lower margin non-scalable m-advertsing business

http://www.bandt.com.au/opinion/why-so-little-support-for-mobile-marketing-ad-spen

Why so little support for mobile marketing ad spends in Australia?

Mobile marketing ad spends, particulary in the UK and USA, are on the increase.
While still significantly lacking overall as a medium in terms of matching budget allocations to eyeballs, in the UK our sister company 4th Screen Advertising is seeing sizable growth in budget.
For mobile in Australia however it's a slightly different story despite strong year-on-year growth. We’re simply not supporting mobile via spend as we could, or indeed should.
Mobile is often omitted by advertisers spending online, despite the massive shift in consumer behaviour towards mobile over the last few years. The now ubiquitous Mary Meeker internet trend research which defined worldwide digital use Vs ad spend is useful to illustrate this point:
“People spent about 12 per cent of their time on mobile devices, which accounts for just 3 per cent of ad spend. This compares to 26 per cent of time spent on the Internet, accounting for 22 per cent of ad spend," it states.
In Australia, we estimate mobile marketing is sitting at just under 5% of total digital spend, even though we’re ranked fourth in the world for smartphone penetration (some reports say we’re actually 2nd).
Locally, we’ve still got some way to go before we catch up with our consumers. And while there is a gap overseas, in Australia it’s a canyon. In the UK for example, IAB reports that mobile accounts for 14% of the total digital ad spend - which is double the spend of the year before.
So what’s happening to result in less spend?
I think it’s the classic chicken and egg story. Mobile is still a new, often untried medium at home which means fewer examples of excellent campaigns and creative to showcase to clients. There are many great examples of course, but there are also poorly-executed performance campaigns displaying terrible creative in random environments with no contextual relevance whatsoever. Maybe this is hampering mobile’s advancement?
I’m not knocking performance per say, it can be done well and for companies or products without significant brand profiles who just need to communicate their message and generate click throughs, a performance buy is not only cost effective, it works. The point I want is make is the creative.
You only have to look at the numerous poorly designed banners floating around any of the latest buzz entertainment apps to know what I mean about the creative. This type of advertising is sending the wrong message about the capabilities of mobile and just might be the factor that has led to the huge gap between the millions frequenting the latest apps and mobile games and advertising spends.
But right now, this is actually good for the savvy advertiser. Great creative simply stands out. When the artwork becomes part of the app, it’s viewed like content. The opposite approach also works well. In line with some of the best creative formats coming out of the UK right now, the banner has grown up and evolved into a three dimensional explosion across a mobile screen and can now also run video. Gamified ad units are also here and really work to increase time spent immersed in brand messages.
There are a constant stream of new developments that are likely to be significant in closing the gap. For example, better targeting can be deployed which locates user preferences and tastes in terms of content and delivers them similar ads. Such capabilities combined with high impact and engaging creative is helping to ensure brands invest more and more into mobile.
And this momentum is only set to continue. As new and better creative comes into play plus ever evolving mobile functionality 2014 will be the tipping point for mobile in Australia propelling the medium towards the millions of consumers waiting.
Pete Birch is the Managing Director of 4th Screen Advertising at Mobile Embrace - Australia’s largest premium mobile advertising network.


Previous (http://www.bandt.com.au/opinion/the-race-that-gets-fingers-flying) Next (http://www.bandt.com.au/opinion/under-promise-over-deliver)

[winner69]

Great piece Steve

Prob with so much of the ad spend in Australia coming from Coles,wesfarmers, Harvey Norman, dj and Myers always going to lower % than rest of world

Like Aussies drink less tea per capita than the poms

[Pods]

Winner69, I think it's just a matter of time. Australia is known for being conservative in investment. I think this has filtered through to investment in advertising strategy. People just think it's too risky. There's various articles on this matter.

[blocker3]

I see the wheels are slowly starting to move in a upward direction. No hype just a calm push. Good news



Correction the wind has picked up today as with MKB and the buyers are out and about

[Pods]

I see the wheels are slowly starting to move in a upward direction. No hype just a calm push. Good news



Correction the wind has picked up today as with MKB and the buyers are out and about

I've seen this same thing happen the for the last week. Pretty strong buying to start the day, ending with pretty strong selling.

[blocker3]

I've seen this same thing happen the for the last week. Pretty strong buying to start the day, ending with pretty strong selling.

I concur now that you have pointed it out. Cheers.

[Pods]

I concur now that you have pointed it out. Cheers.

Looks good.

First time in 2 weeks where the buyers out number the sellers?

[stoploss]

Trading update, reads well to me . Hopefully Steve will let us know the professionals view ....

http://www.asx.com.au/asx/statistics/displayAnnouncement.do?display=pdf&idsId=01469660

[NZSilver]

Trading update,
http://www.asx.com.au/asx/statistics/displayAnnouncement.do?display=pdf&idsId=01469660

6.2 Million Revenue (for the first 4 months)
MCap of 70Million (@22c)
Sounds very good to me, if they can continue to grow revenue FY results will be very nice, and hopefully a nice profit will follow.

Let the Growth continue - may be time to top up.

Also it is good to see 1.1 million cash in the bank - means there shouldn't be any cashflow problems.

[Pods]

Ok, but what does this actually mean.

This gives us 1 more month than our previous update.

Q1 Revenue was 4.5m
+ 1 more month = 6.2m

Which means October month was revenue of 1.7m

Is this significant? Last year the Q2 saw a tip in revenue I believe.

If anything. 1.7m > (4.5m / 3) [4.5m divided by 3 months for that quarter].

So this suggest revenue is continuing to grow at a good rate into the 2nd Quarter. Possibly the ignition it might need to set a base at or above 25c in the next month or so. Enough to get it over 30? Hard to say.

My favourite part:

Cash at bank as at Oct 30 2013 is $1.1 million with receivables of $3 million and creditors of $0.73 million.


vs previous update



Cash at bank as at Sept 30 is $1.089 million, with receivables of $2.7 million and creditors of $0.83 million.


In laymens terms - we're making good money.

[blocker3]

Pods I agree with you.... "In laymens terms - we're making good money."

My question to anyone that can answer it is. Why a follow up monthly update from a quarterly one, Why now, When in the past it has been only a quarterly update.This has not been intended as a -ve question but an open one that whoever can answer it please...Cheers

[steve fleming]

Pods I agree with you.... "In laymens terms - we're making good money."

My question to anyone that can answer it is. Why a follow up monthly update from a quarterly one, Why now, When in the past it has been only a quarterly update.This has not been intended as a -ve question but an open one that whoever can answer it please...Cheers



Agree with Pods - those numbers imply, rather crudely, a $400k EBITDA for the month.

I can also confirm the previously reported EBITDA for the 3 months ($0.92m) is after providing for a number of one-off non cash payments (shares issued on 4 July and 23 Sep) so normalised/operating EBITDA will be higher than reported.....so looks like on track for operating EBITDA around $2.5m for the half.

Blocker - Good question, a little strange, but MBE have been pulled up twice recently by the ASX with price queries, so are likely to be under a bit of scrutiny in terms of ensuring the market is fully informed, particularly after how the shares traded in the lead up to the last update....they are now probably erring conservatively, providing additional financial information as necessary (when they consider it to be price sensitive) to ensure they are not put in the position of having to answer to the ASX again

one thing i dislike about MBE though is the lack of detail in their announcements, there is no info on what is driving the performance. For a bunch of professional marketing people, they are terrible at promoting themselves to investors

[blocker3]

Steve fleming . Thank You for your answer. It now makes sense to me now. Now that you have pointed it out ,I do now remember when the MBE share price was going nuts by the "Traders" and ASX asking MBE x 2 whats going on. Maybe they will continue monthly updates?

Your last comment I had not thought about beforehand, however I can not disagree on what you have said. Cheers for that

[winner69]

steve said -one thing i dislike about MBE though is the lack of detail in their announcements, there is no info on what is driving the performance. For a bunch of professional marketing people, they are terrible at promoting themselves to investors

Thought that a few times as well

Maybe a good thing that the finance team not that creative eh

But they could a lot better if they going to continue with monthly updates. Danger though is one day there will be a poor month even though the longer term trend is all positive.

[Pods]

I was a bit suspicious about the announcement too.

I remember last time I was sorta suspicious about their wording was when they started quoting articles saying that Mobile Payments were going to be huge - it just seemed a little off track... and then they announce the deal with sprint.

So perhaps there's something coming up? They also said that non of this revenue was generated from the US payments business. So perhaps the reason for this announcement was to set the bar for the next announcements when the US payments business starts to generate some revenue. Then everyone can clearly see the difference that that particular deal makes to underlying earnings.

We could speculate on this for a while though. I guess i'll just calm down and be quite knowing full well they're headed in the right direction.

I think I am hoping for is a sufficient bank balance to negate the need for any further capital raising. Given that the last capital raising to sophisticated investors raised $1m for the expansion into SE Asia, I think having $1m in the bank may be good for that.

[steve fleming]

They may have also been repeatedly questioned by investors/ potential investors as to how they have been trading recently - rather than run the risk of selectively briefing some shareholders, they then addressed the market as a whole.

however, whatever the reason, they have now set a precedent, If they don't announce future monthly revenues, everyone is going to be like where's the update? What are they hiding?

Should have said something like "it is not our intention to release monthly revenue updates, but due to strong investor interest in the ongoing performance of the business, we are providing an update on the performance for the first four months of the year"

[Pods]

Is there a greater than 15% discrepancy between the earnings previously announced (or forecast from the quarterly run rate) and the current one? If they had a good month, and their forecast full year earnings are now 15% higher than what they said at the AGM or in the AR, then they are obligated to disclose that to the market straight away.

I don't think they've been forecasting their earnings, at least quaterly for a while, instead simply saying that revenues will continue to grow. They usually only come out and say expected EBITDA for the half year when they are 1-2 months out. We're a little way from that I think.

[Pods]

I thought i'd share a spreadsheet i'm maintaining to get a better perspective of how the finances are tracking. You'll noticed that in the 1st half of last year, (july to dec) there was a decrease on the previous period (not corresponding period, I.e jan - feb). We're already very close to equalling that with two months left so I'm confident that we wont see a repeat of that this year. Thus if the 2nd half of this year is as good as it was last year, the FY revenue growth will no doubt outpace last years.



Term
FY09/10
1H 10/11
2H 10/11
FY10/11
1H 11/12
2H 11/12
FY11/12
1H 12/13
2H 12/13
FY12/13
1H (July - Oct) 13/14


Revenues
12,073,073
4,905,000
3,919,413
8,824,413
4,950,000
6,418,854
11,368,854
5767000.00
6461391.00
12228391.00
6200000.00


% vs Previous Term


-20.09351682
N/A
26.29442215
29.67381818
28.83411055
-10.15530187
12.04076643
7.560454202



% vs Prev Corresponding Term



N/A
0.9
63.77079935
28.83411055
16.50505051
0.662688386
7.560454202

[blocker3]

Great Homework Pod . Thanks for the spreadsheet as I know that it would of taken time to put together. Looking Good Cheers

[bottlerboy]

Thanks Blocker I also appreciate pods input

[stoploss]

Some interesting numbers in here re mobile advertising ...( understand that only 25 % of MBE business is mobile adds ) ... Maybe we need a general mobile ad site ?

http://www.nbr.co.nz/facebook

[steve fleming]

A couple of recent things i have found interesting:

1. Normally on YMYC, anything not blue chip gets normally gets smugly laughed at, the panellists are institutional, big is best, small caps are for losers, type people. However, on a recent episode there was a good 5 minute discussion on MBE, both panelists had looked at the company, and liked the fundamentals. The Ord Minnett broker even went as far as saying "there has been chat around the office about it, a fair bit of PA [Broker Private Account] buying on this one" (and I can quote him because I listened to the quote 3 times to make sure I heard him correctly). So this from two completely impartial commentators with nothing to gain. THis would have been completely unheard of a couple of months ago....so the story is getting out there
2, The other thing is MBE no longer features on the H/C daytrader thread, and the MBE thread actually consists of generally well thought out, fundamental based postings. So to me this indicates the hot money has left / given up on the stock and a good base is being formed based on the fundamentals, which should then provide nice support for a re-rate.....

[NZSilver]

Cheers Steve, - thanks for that.

Good to hear that on YMYC, I havnt listened to the last several weeks of episodes, but previous to that when callers asked about MBE - there were comments like "I dont know much about this share at all" "market cap too small stay away" "I wouldnt touch it" "tech bubble" - it was always compared and lumped with other mobile advertising companies ie MKB (who I believe have a much greater risk as they are still un profitable and the model is quite different)

Nice to hear brokers are looking at MBE seriously.

Looking forward to the next update from MBE.

[blocker3]

A couple of recent things i have found interesting:

1. Normally on YMYC, anything not blue chip gets normally gets smugly laughed at, the panellists are institutional, big is best, small caps are for losers, type people. However, on a recent episode there was a good 5 minute discussion on MBE, both panelists had looked at the company, and liked the fundamentals. The Ord Minnett broker even went as far as saying "there has been chat around the office about it, a fair bit of PA [Broker Private Account] buying on this one" (and I can quote him because I listened to the quote 3 times to make sure I heard him correctly). So this from two completely impartial commentators with nothing to gain. THis would have been completely unheard of a couple of months ago....so the story is getting out there
2, The other thing is MBE no longer features on the H/C daytrader thread, and the MBE thread actually consists of generally well thought out, fundamental based postings. So to me this indicates the hot money has left / given up on the stock and a good base is being formed based on the fundamentals, which should then provide nice support for a re-rate.....

Great information once again steve. Well done. The only question I have is that I have never heard of the H/C trader thread before. What does H/C stand for please?

[steve fleming]

Capitulation day + large volume hammer = trend reversal?

Hopefully!

[Joshuatree]

Great information once again steve. Well done. The only question I have is that I have never heard of the H/C trader thread before. What does H/C stand for please?

"Hot Copper. most of the time for rampers, haters and inane commenters from all sides. Rarely has conversations/debates/information as great as ST or Steve F's posts ;)"

Moosie youre right. But , if you put in the time you will find some amazing genuine knowledgeable posters on H/C as well, covering a multitude of stocks..

[blocker3]

"Hot Copper. most of the time for rampers, haters and inane commenters from all sides. Rarely has conversations/debates/information as great as ST or Steve F's posts ;)"

Moosie youre right. But , if you put in the time you will find some amazing genuine knowledgeable posters on H/C as well, covering a multitude of stocks..


Cheers for H/C = Hot Copper information Joshuatree

[Joshuatree]

Turn your Auto Editer App on; its there ; you just have to activate it;easy :)

[False Profit]

Why is the price heading towards the 4 week low? Good buying opportunities? Or is the price settling to more reasonable levels after the trading update in late November?

[Pods]

Why is the price heading towards the 4 week low? Good buying opportunities? Or is the price settling to more reasonable levels after the trading update in late November?

The whole small cap index has been heading down in a similar fashion over the last 2 months. Basically, everything is just cooling down a bit. Yes good prices to get in at. For a high growth stock these multiples are good. However, will you be able to pick it up for less in a few days? Maybe! ;)

[False Profit]

The whole small cap index has been heading down in a similar fashion over the last 2 months. Basically, everything is just cooling down a bit. Yes good prices to get in at. For a high growth stock these multiples are good. However, will you be able to pick it up for less in a few days? Maybe! ;)

Good points Pods. I guess there will be a lull over the Xmas period too which may test the price at lower levels.

[Copper]

Good points Pods. I guess there will be a lull over the Xmas period too which may test the price at lower levels.

Am no chartist but every damn line seems to be at the bottom so I bought some just now. Let's hope this is a modest turnaround.....

[whatsup]

MBE teams up with Singtel, and will have greater exposure in the Asian payments market from this.

[NZSilver]

http://www.asx.com.au/asxpdf/20131217/pdf/42lnf1yd5rct1v.pdf

Very good!

[Pods]

Yep. Been waiting for this since the Sprint announcement. I had a feeling the next one would be Asian and particularly Singapore was on my mind. Great deal. This company is making terrific progress. Even if the revenue doesn't flow from these for another 6 months, the market must now realise MBE have an aptitude for making big deals with big companies.

Great stuff.

[steve fleming]

Yep. Been waiting for this since the Sprint announcement. I had a feeling the next one would be Asian and particularly Singapore was on my mind. Great deal. This company is making terrific progress. Even if the revenue doesn't flow from these for another 6 months, the market must now realise MBE have an aptitude for making big deals with big companies.

Great stuff.

Agree

Singtel deal = huge credibility boost

[Pods]

In this Singtel agreement there is one point that I really focussed on, which was the mention of "Direct Carrier Billing" - I had assumed that this is what MBE was using primarily as it's Mobile Payments platforms - which makes me very happy. Carrier Billing is very natural and it's been in use for a long time. I had thought that while m-payments are gaining huge traction, why we really need all these new solutions when we already have Direct Carrier Billing. Certainly, we can already buy more than just ring tones, such as Google Apps. But I see a big future for this type of payment because it's easier to use for the end user.

I found this which helps explain what the future might hold for this technology.

http://www.mobilepaymentstoday.com/blog/11377/Direct-Carrier-Billing-The-world-s-most-popular-mobile-payment-Infographic


When you think about how often this is potentially used, from buying apps, ringtones you can see the potential that 500M subscribers could have to MBE bottom line. Better yet, I see that one day Direct Carrier Billing will be competing with the likes of Master Card, Visa etc maybe there will even be some key partnerships between the big credit card companies in this field. I wouldn't be surprised.-popular-mobile-payment-Infographic (http://www.mobilepaymentstoday.com/blog/11377/Direct-Carrier-Billing-The-world-s-most-popular-mobile-payment-Infographic)

[steve fleming]

There were a couple of pretty broad statements that were made at the AGM but which give some context to the MBE story.

Firstly, that MBE has only just left the starting line of a marathon in terms of its achievements and growth

Secondly, to appreciate the opportunities available to MBE, you really have to open your mind, think outside the square and have the vision to think how powerful mobiles can be in respect of payment devices

So the announcement today was a small step in scaling MBE up to become a major global player in the fast growing mobile payments space.

The key is CONTENT + DISTRIBUTION

MBE has now secured a huge DISTRIBUTION network (Telstra, Optus, Sprint in US now Singtel), I imagine the creative team in Vietnam are working on a variety of creative entertainment content, games, products and services – ie the CONTENT that MBE is able to distribute then monetise

As an example, at the AGM Chris Thorpe said their was a huge demand in Asia for people to pay for Lotto results to be provided to their mobile in a creative way. So something as simple as that is able to be monetised by MBE and then distributed to the Singtel network…. Sports results, gossip, weather, finance information, etc etc potential for all of that to be packaged in a creative manner (such as incorporating as part of a game or attaching a free giveaway if they subscribe etc.) and then monetised and this is what Chris Thorpe was getting at when he was on about “opening your mind” as to the huge potential in this space

The day traders can do what they short term, but MBE has proven they have a profitable business model, the future numbers will (hopefully!) illustrate MBE’s ability to scale their business and take advantage of this new mobile payments market that is opening up

[tosspot]

yea it may take a few days but I feel that was the catalyst to bring it back to its original highs. couldnt resist and bought in at 21c. not perfect but good enough

[The Big Ease]

I've just started a new thread on HC comparing MBE with FLN.

I think this comparison is worthy of a new thread given the enormous value it dhighlights.

Check out Freelancer (FLN) for a comparable tech growth story.

It has a market cap of 560m after topping at +1billion upon listing.


Here are it's financials:

5203



It's revenue figure & profit are likely to be surpassed by MBE in 2014 and yet MBE is priced at about 1/9th the value?

Why?
MBE has top line growth equally as impressive (FLN is at 80% YoY).

MBE will have significant NPAT growth (potentially +6m vs 400K last year).

FLN currently is projected to deliver 500K from 18m in revenue.

MBE is projected to deliver +20m revenue and profits +6m.

So is there room for the market cap to increase?
Hell yes!!

If you think MBE is growing, take another look at the current rate of growth from the available market vs the new deals it has signed up and will sign up.

Facts are facts.
This is a rocket ship.
Bookmark and Share

[stoploss]

There were a couple of pretty broad statements that were made at the AGM but which give some context to the MBE story.

Firstly, that MBE has only just left the starting line of a marathon in terms of its achievements and growth

Secondly, to appreciate the opportunities available to MBE, you really have to open your mind, think outside the square and have the vision to think how powerful mobiles can be in respect of payment devices

So the announcement today was a small step in scaling MBE up to become a major global player in the fast growing mobile payments space.

The key is CONTENT + DISTRIBUTION

MBE has now secured a huge DISTRIBUTION network (Telstra, Optus, Sprint in US now Singtel), I imagine the creative team in Vietnam are working on a variety of creative entertainment content, games, products and services – ie the CONTENT that MBE is able to distribute then monetise

As an example, at the AGM Chris Thorpe said their was a huge demand in Asia for people to pay for Lotto results to be provided to their mobile in a creative way. So something as simple as that is able to be monetised by MBE and then distributed to the Singtel network…. Sports results, gossip, weather, finance information, etc etc potential for all of that to be packaged in a creative manner (such as incorporating as part of a game or attaching a free giveaway if they subscribe etc.) and then monetised and this is what Chris Thorpe was getting at when he was on about “opening your mind” as to the huge potential in this space

The day traders can do what they short term, but MBE has proven they have a profitable business model, the future numbers will (hopefully!) illustrate MBE’s ability to scale their business and take advantage of this new mobile payments market that is opening up

Thanks Steve, this investment ticks a lot of boxes with me . I have long held the belief that your whole life will be controllable/ held in your hand . Got dusted with an investment in PALM in the tech days when RIM was the winner ( for a while ) ... Anyway on the same belief I invested in Vita group around 28 cents , so got the Palm money back .I really like the payments side of this business, not so sure on mobile advertising .
Feeling a bit of a mug for taking a lot of these off around 7 cents. Anyway think I might have to take a longer view and add to my position here.

[steve fleming]

Thanks Steve, this investment ticks a lot of boxes with me . I have long held the belief that your whole life will be controllable/ held in your hand . Got dusted with an investment in PALM in the tech days when RIM was the winner ( for a while ) ... Anyway on the same belief I invested in Vita group around 28 cents , so got the Palm money back .I really like the payments side of this business, not so sure on mobile advertising .
Feeling a bit of a mug for taking a lot of these off around 7 cents. Anyway think I might have to take a longer view and add to my position here.

Yeah, it is having that vision as to how powerful the mobile phone may be....it has come a long way since it was just used for calls, but there is still so far to go

I think at the moment it is easiest for MBE to focus on selling content (either developed by MBE as per the examples above or aggregated from other content providers )that is easy to replicate across countries i.e. games, entertainment, information services, and monetising that content.

MBE can use their trading desk to buy advertising space and really go hard in terms of (targeted) advertising these products to give it a far bigger reach and convenience than current apps

The next step is integrating with other service providers to sell things like bus tickets, movie tickets etc

It is now about getting the right content to the market as per the article below

http://www.news.com.au/finance/business/aussie-mobile-firm-partners-withsingtel/story-e6frfkur-1226784865366


Aussie mobile firm partners with SingTel


December 17, 2013 4:38PM

AUSTRALIAN mobile payments group Mobile Embrace wants to expand its presence throughout Asia after securing a deal with Singapore Telecommunications.

Mobile Embrace will provide direct billing services to the telco's customers in Singapore who want on-demand entertainment on their smartphones.

SingTel also owns Australian telco Optus, and businesses in Indonesia, Thailand and the Philippines.

Mobile Embrace managing director Neil Wiles said SingTel plans to expand the company's direct billing system across its Asian carriers.

"It's the first step to building our international footprint ... it's very significant for us," he told AAP.

"Wherever SingTel is ... we would be looking to partner into territories with SingTel first and foremost."

Mr Wiles, who joined Mobile Embrace in 2003, said the company also had its eye on Vietnam and Malaysia as other potential new markets.

"We have quite a detailed assessment process in determining whether a market is a good market," he said.

"That's not just how many mobile customers they have but it's also looking at what kind of products are suitable to the market, how quickly we can bring those products to market."

Shares in Mobile Embrace gained one cent, or 5.26 per cent, to 20 cents.

Just six months ago the shares were trading at 1.9 cents.

[Copper]

Great posts all.Very informative.many tks. Much better than the sparrows at dusk,on the SNK. Thread......

[Pods]

It's good to hear they have an open mind. My mind is telling me mobile devices and telecommunications companies will become more closely aligned with payments processing in the near future. I don't think we're far off being able to buy bread/milk etc by attaching it to our phone bill - in essence the phone bill could merge to become the one place where all our transactions are processed which could be linked to our bank accounts or credit cards. I think when that happens, this mobile payments business will explode.

But even before that happens, there are more and more items available to buy via direct carrier billing and it's not just content that MBE creates but anyone. For instance Android Apps. Take a look at this Singtel page with an advertisement from Google telling people to buy apps via Direct Carrier Billing: http://info.singtel.com/personal/phones-plans/mobile/android/everything-android

You may have to wait for the add to come around.

But if the MBE DCB is rolled out across Singtels 462 Million Subscribers (not a typo) how many apps do you think are purchased per day? Needless to say, it would be enough to significantly add to MBEs revenue. Hopefully we will start to see this filter through by at the latest Q4 (April-June) next year.

[Pods]

Here's another piece on Googles "Explosive" growth, attributed to Direct Carrier Payments

http://blog.bango.com/2013/08/14/google-plays-explosive-revenue-growth-down-to-operator-billing/

[Pods]

Thinking on the wrong track pods (no offence). credit cards and eftpos will be through Near Field Communication directly linked to bank apps (NFC). why go through the telco when you can do it all directly through an app?

Not really sure what you mean. All i'm saying is that, with the expansion of products available to be purchased via direct carrier billing, telecommunication companies will be making payments on behalf of users but not expecting to be paid by the users until their bill is paid - that's like free credit and perhaps too much of a risk to take on - thus the phone bill, which is where direct carrier payments are attached, may in the future be backed by some sort of credit facility, similar to credit cards etc.

[stoploss]

Thinking on the wrong track pods (no offence). credit cards and eftpos will be through Near Field Communication directly linked to bank apps (NFC). why go through the telco when you can do it all directly through an app?
Moosie in less developed countries not everyone has a bank ac .... But they pretty much all have a phone . Even in NZ bank branches in rural districts are few and far between .To the younger generation their phone is everything to them . So not hard to imagine telcos moving in a way to banking/payments. Sure people will still buy via a CC online but they maybe more trusting of their Mobile phone account .....

[Copper]

[QUOTE=Pods;450346]Not really sure what you mean. All i'm saying is that, with the expansion of products available to be purchased via direct carrier billing, telecommunication companies will be making payments on behalf of users but not expecting to be paid by the users until their bill is paid - that's like free credit and perhaps too much of a risk to take on - thus the phone bill, which is where direct carrier payments are attached, may in the future be backed by some sort of credit facility, similar to credit cards etc.[/QUFffffffOTE]

To Pods or Moosie....Am trying to get my small brain around this stuff....Exactly where can MBE clip the ticket.Are they creating the app or what. Any explanation would be most helpful...regards Copper

[stoploss]

[QUOTE=Pods;450346]Not really sure what you mean. All i'm saying is that, with the expansion of products available to be purchased via direct carrier billing, telecommunication companies will be making payments on behalf of users but not expecting to be paid by the users until their bill is paid - that's like free credit and perhaps too much of a risk to take on - thus the phone bill, which is where direct carrier payments are attached, may in the future be backed by some sort of credit facility, similar to credit cards etc.[/QUFffffffOTE]

To Pods or Moosie....Am trying to get my small brain around this stuff....Exactly where can MBE clip the ticket.Are they creating the app or what. Any explanation would be most helpful...regards Copper
Copper please read post# 231 from S/ F

[Copper]

[QUOTE=Copper;450350]
Copper please read post# 231 from S/ F

Many tks,I remember that post. It is now in perspective.It was getting to understand who did what in the equation.kind regards....Copper.

[Pods]

To Pods or Moosie....Am trying to get my small brain around this stuff....Exactly where can MBE clip the ticket.Are they creating the app or what. Any explanation would be most helpful...regards Copper

I believe there is an app, but that's based on what I've seen from MBEs B2B site. Their payment solution is called MobiPay. They may be licencing it from someone else, not entirely sure. But I think this is something that MBE have been doing for a while, like their SMS payment solutions - they seemed to have identified a growing market and gone for it. However I believe their current solution is more to do with providing the Content and the systems to support that content and for also serving advertising inline with that content.

[Huang Chung]

Steve, I 'mentioned in dispatches' your excellent AGM summary on here on page 16 on HC.

Seems like people struggle to understand MBE's business (me included), but I think you nicely captured the essence of the business in your post.

[Huang Chung]

Steve, would you have any objections if I posted your AGM summary on HC?

[The Big Ease]

HC I thought he had already done so tbh.

[Huang Chung]

Hi TBE.

always new people getting into the stock, and with so many posts on the MBE thread on HC, it's easy for the great posts to get lost amongst the 'noise'.

Just thought it would be helpful for the newbies to get up to speed, and a nice refresher for the not so new.

[The Big Ease]

I'm with you HC.
Just saying his comments are already there so no real harm in re-posting with attribution.

Good form to ask though :)

[steve fleming]

No worries at all hc

The one thing about MBE is they don't make it that easy to comprehend their announcements

It helped me having a meeting with management to get a better understanding

[Copper]

Ah yes of course, small mind only thinking 1st world. cheers ;)

MOOSIE........My small mind seems to have a lot of company including all the Aussies by the look of the posts today.Merry Xmas...regards Copper .

[The Big Ease]

No worries at all hc

The one thing about MBE is they don't make it that easy to comprehend their announcements

It helped me having a meeting with management to get a better understandingwhen they sell the products of other companies, what's mbe's typical cut of revenue?
Is there an example of other products they sell besides their own?

[Pods]

Just realised that MBE looks like it satisfies as a Head & Shoulders pattern - apparently one of the more reliable trend reversal patterns. If the traders and tech-analysts have been trading based on that, then that may give a background to the lacklustre performance. Hopefully the strong fundamentals can pull it out of a slump. A good day today might help.

[Pods]

No worries at all hc

The one thing about MBE is they don't make it that easy to comprehend their announcements

It helped me having a meeting with management to get a better understanding

Steve, you had a meeting with management? Was this the AGM or separate but during the AGM? I used to E-mail the CEO of TTV quite a bit before they changed to DNA. Do we have any good email contacts for MBE?

[steve fleming]

Steve, you had a meeting with management? Was this the AGM or separate but during the AGM? I used to E-mail the CEO of TTV quite a bit before they changed to DNA. Do we have any good email contacts for MBE?

Hi Pods, yes I met with Management when I was investigating MBE earlier in the year, and have had subsequent contact with them

At the end of most ASX announcements (i.e. 26 Nov trading update) there are contact (phone/email) details for Chris Thorpe

[Green Screen]

Hi. My broker has bought a lot of this stock for me recently. Apparently there are a lot of funds buying this now and expectations are in the $s. I would like to see a sub notice. Has anybody heard anything from the company?

[stoploss]

Hi. My broker has bought a lot of this stock for me recently. Apparently there are a lot of funds buying this now and expectations are in the $s. I would like to see a sub notice. Has anybody heard anything from the company?

If your broker is so confident because he is buying you " a lot of stock " maybe ask him what's going on ....That's what you pay him brokerage for.

[NZSilver]

Oh look, someone created a sharetrader account just to come on and pump MBE with rumours of brokers and funds buying in. The Hotcopper moderators must be doing their job over there LOL. Perhaps its time we got one here too?

To right KW

[blocker3]

Hi. My broker has bought a lot of this stock for me recently. Apparently there are a lot of funds buying this now and expectations are in the $s. I would like to see a sub notice. Has anybody heard anything from the company?

You have upset the apple cart here Green Screen on this thread. Please explain your wild comments.

[winner69]

You have upset the apple cart here Green Screen on this thread. Please explain your wild comments.

whatever we may think of Green Screen what he said had some truth yesterday ah

Cmon GS ..... you can do better than just getting the price up to 23.5

[stoploss]

This might help the stock ... http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2013-12-23/facebook-twitter-shares-rise-to-records-on-social-ad-optimism.html

Can't but help think that Green screen might be sitting with some of the mil on offer @ 24 cents .....
Anyway been a good stock this year and showing promise for next year.
Merry Xmas to all.

S/L

[The Big Ease]

That's quite an opening today.
7m traded in 20 minutes.
High of 25 so far.

[winner69]

Hi. My broker has bought a lot of this stock for me recently. Apparently there are a lot of funds buying this now and expectations are in the $s. I would like to see a sub notice. Has anybody heard anything from the company?

Might just happen .... in SNK language almost half way to a buck now

[The Big Ease]

Amazing the power of HC, just look at what happened to PSY. Still, the trend is your friend, so as long as you know what you are doing (and when to get off the bus) go with the flow. HC is all over AHZ as well (taking it from 5c to 15c) and as much as I'm enjoying the gains, I'd rather it found its price level under its own steam rather than the artificial hype generated from the HC traders. Otherwise its a fast trip back down to 5c.

Not sure HC is going to push through that sort of volume.

[winner69]

Capitulation day + large volume hammer = trend reversal?

Hopefully!

That was dec 6th

Capitulation it was in the 17s .....up 60% since ......yippee