AHZ - Professor Frazer - Herpes simplex vaccine

[p0ssy]

After coming last in 2012 stock picking competition I thought it best to spare ShareTraders my tips in future! However this Co has caught my eye and for the first time this year I have dipped my toe into the market and bought a few.

This co has three products
CardioCel - currently in use and generating revenue - used to repair congenital heart disease in children.
Vaccine to not only prevent HPV but also to treat it.
Vaccine to prevent herpes simplex infections, Phase 1 trial expected to start soon (if not already).

This is an excerpt from the fin review the other day

"Professor Frazer has been working with ASX- listed biotech AHZ for the past five years on the Coridon vaccine for the treatment as well as prevention of transmission of HPV. He will begin the first clinical trial with 12 individuals and is hopeful that if all goes well a vaccine could be available to the public in three to five years time.

"We've got the product in a bottle and ready to go, just waiting for the ethics clearance on it" said Professor Frazer a former Australian of the Year."

"The commercial market for such a vaccine, if successful, is estimated to be $1.3 billion a year."

http://www.alliedhealthcaregroup.com.au/files/files/652_2013-06-08_Douglas_highlights_need_for_HPV_vaccine.pdf

http://www.alliedhealthcaregroup.com.au/files/files/627_Bioshares492rbpAHZ_pdf_-_Adobe_Acrobat_Pro.pdf

Current market cap is $50m.

[p0ssy]

Just an update on this company - SP has risen from 4.8 when I first posted to close at 8.3 today.

This was a post from Motley fool:
"In the past year we’ve seen our biggest healthcare stocks go through the roof but this one is perhaps our very best performer. Allied Healthcare Group (ASX: AHZ) has risen a huge 166% in the past 12 months alone and is still only valued at $0.064. As a diversified healthcare company that specialises in cardiovascular and soft tissue repair surgery, the world is at its feet."

And what prompted the SP to rise recently
https://content.markitcdn.com/CommSec/Api/Document/PDF?dockey=1410-01437008-23VAKPPNG61C9I1LTVG4MT714I

good luck

[Dej]

Looks like a good company, like the products, but have we seen most the rise already... I feel we may have....

Would it be worth hoping in now?

[p0ssy]

well ..... I suspect this has a long way to go. My timeframe is 12-24 months. My brother - who is an astute investor - is waiting for the SP to go quite a bit higher before he hops in (but then his technical analysis of the market suggests a correction soon so that too is holding him back). I am continuing to load up on these. What more can I say?
Cheers

[Dej]

Bought in on opening. ;)

[Dej]

This is probably a stock that you want to layer in to over time in order to minimise your risk - there is a trading strategy (again, sorry can't remember the name of the author) where you buy each time it hits a new high, with stop losses placed just below the prior new high (ie. at the second to last purchase price). This builds a big position in risky stocks over time, and minimises your losses should the price fall back to earth. eg. buy at 8.4c stop loss at 7.7c, buy at 9.1c stop loss at 8.2c.

However, just be watchful for any reversion to the moving average, which is sitting at about 8c at the moment (using the 30 hour MA which AHZ seems to track).

If I had more disposible income I would, but currently I have money set aside for a trip I am leaving on soon and thats a no-go zone (obviously) so will just have to settle for a trailing stop loss. If this hits 10c I will be watching it very carefully over the coming days because that to me says it has risen to high to fast..

Either way, cannot complain for almost 20% in a day right?? ASX seems to be serving me a whole lot better than NZX. Liquidity is NZXs problem. Not enough of it on most stocks I am interested in!

[Dej]

Oops, that was me ramping it over in the DIL thread LOL

Those two guys who sold their house and car just bought in ;)

[soulman]

Damn, must keep a closer eye on this one. Missed a top up opportunity at 10c yesterday, now its off again. Never mind, will pick up more on the next reversion to the MA.

This stock is picking up some volume now, which is great news.

Is this a buy on rumour, sell on fact rally?

The rich gets richer again with Andrew Forrest Metals Group owning 17.5% of AHZ.

[Entrep]

Damn, must keep a closer eye on this one. Missed a top up opportunity at 10c yesterday, now its off again. Never mind, will pick up more on the next reversion to the MA.

This stock is picking up some volume now, which is great news.

I've sat on my hands waiting for MBE and look like I've missed that bus. Really want to own AHZ too, but again, will it go down? Would be nice to get some for 10c even!

[soulman]

Yeah I'm interested in what you guys think as well. I managed to get in at 9.4 on Friday but need to learn more about this one. Are traders driving the price or is the general consensus that this thing is a solid long term hold? Cheers.
Just out of interest are any of you in on NEU or BNO as well?

I got in at 9.6 Monday and I am out at 11 yesterday.

Solid LT hold? No such thing. Strategy I would employed here is do what most expert here would do. Hold on until the chart say so. Of course it also depends on your entry price. Good luck.

[baller18]

Ah rights issue at 5c by the looks. No link via DB yet but that's what I'm seeing on another forum:

NOTICE UNDER SECTION 708AA OF THE CORPORATIONS ACT 2001
Perth, Australia, 23 September 2013
Allied Healthcare Group Limited (Company) has today announced that it is proposing to despatch to eligible shareholders an offer document in respect of a non-renounceable rights issue of up to 208,637,705 shares (New Shares) each at an issue price of $0.05 to raise $10,431,885 on the basis of 1 New Share for every 5 shares held on the record date of 1 October 2013 (Offer).

Is it worth getting into at this price? get in before the ex date, and can take advantage of the rights issue..

[baller18]

Its a cheap entry - under 7c today with rights attached, add another 20% at 5c. The Metals Group is underwriting 50% of the issue.
Thanks KW, is there a reason why the SP has fallen off so much in the past 2 days?
Thanks in advance

[blakecb]

Got in at 7cps this afternoon. I like the look of this company as it has good products, increasing revenues and the potential for future huge offerings. Think we will see a nice little hammer form today.

[baller18]

Got in at 7cps this afternoon. I like the look of this company as it has good products, increasing revenues and the potential for future huge offerings. Think we will see a nice little hammer form today.

Yup, and don't forget the rights issue :)

[blakecb]

I'm a little confused about the dates/terminology re the rights issue. Effectively when would you have to purchase shares by to be able to participate?

It has a record date of 1 October. Now don't quote me on this but looks like you need to purchase 5 business days before the Record Date to be on the share register (which is tomorrow), as normal ex-divvy on the ASX is four days before the Record Date. KW will probably be along to help out as I am not at all experienced with the ASX.

[baller18]

Cheers - so if that's the case we would expect to see a bit of a run up in SP through until tomorrow with people buying in so they can participate, and then a slight pull back after that?

Hey tummeric, I checked the announcement, the ex date is on the 25th of sep, so any days before the 25th we would get the rights issue :).
Yup I'm expecting a little SP rise, but who knows eh?
I was hoping the same with INA, but if anything, it just kept on rising and rising... lol
What a quick recovery...

[blakecb]

I pretty much did the same Blake - bought in today at 6.9cps. What is a "nice little hammer"? You buying for a quick trade?

A few big trades have taken the wind out of our little rally:



7.3
918,816
14:08



7.3
250,000
14:08



A hammer is a chart pattern where the price moves down but hits support and sees a nice rally pushing the price back up (see attached picture). It can be a sign of a trend reversal from a downtrend to an uptrend. It reveals well-positioned support upon which a move upwards can be built.

In this case, we want to see it close today above 7.5cps for a hammer to be formed.
4862

[baller18]

OK mate, cheers. Yeah I checked the dates etc, I just get confused with "ex date" vs "record date" and the time things take to process....

So you purchased some baller?

Yeah good recovery although back down to 7.4cps now though...
Hey yup, I got some, not at the best price thought, was shuffling my stocks to put some into this one.
But ye, I use to get confused all the time as well.
Some companies would have their ex date 4 days before the record date, and 5 days before the record date, so I just figured, buy before the ex date which the company has announced.. lol.

[blakecb]

I pretty much did the same Blake - bought in today at 6.9cps. What is a "nice little hammer"? You buying for a quick trade?

No buying in for the long haul. I consider it highly speculative but want to buy and hold and see where this journey takes us....hopefully to a divvy! If its potential is realised, this will be an absolute winner. I have only bought a small parcel and will put it in the bottom draw and forget about it.

[baller18]

No buying in for the long haul. I consider it highly speculative but want to buy and hold and see where this journey takes us....hopefully to a divvy! If its potential is realised, this will be an absolute winner. I have only bought a small parcel and will put it in the bottom draw and forget about it.
Nice blake, please keep us updated with your thoughts.
I saw a shooting star from big charts... sighs... hopefully the little rally will start again soon..
Are you going to exercise your rights?

[blakecb]

Nice blake, please keep us updated with your thoughts.
I saw a shooting star from big charts... sighs... hopefully the little rally will start again soon..
Are you going to exercise your rights?

My guess baller is that it will limp to close at 7.5cps.... we will hopefully have a good day in the US overnight, and speculative stocks like this one will get another little boost causing a higher high and higher low tomorrow, hopefully meaning the start of another little upward move for this stock. Here's hoping anyway! (As always, my guesses only...do not own a crystal ball of any kind, so DYOR.)

As for the rights question, yes probably, but will see what the share price is like when I'm filling out the form :).

[baller18]

Got a question, I've never taken up a rights issue before.
I'm going overseas for a holiday on sunday, and I won't be able to see the documents on time, so am I able to ask them for it to be send electronically by email? And send it back by email as well?

[soulman]

Thanks mate - sorry, only just seen your reply to me... As per above I got out at 11.5c so happy. Potentially looking to get back in again soon though... You?

Love your ID name btw.....;)

I will stay out for now. Seems like the biotech boom we been having for the last few months are tapering off. I am currently holding ACG in the biotech sector.

IVX, OSL and NAN are falling alongside with AHZ. SOM and ACG are both profitable so they are more well supported.

[blakecb]

Love your ID name btw.....;)

I will stay out for now. Seems like the biotech boom we been having for the last few months are tapering off. I am currently holding ACG in the biotech sector.

IVX, OSL and NAN are falling alongside with AHZ. SOM and ACG are both profitable so they are more well supported.

What is interesting to me is that PEB on the NZX can get to circa $160mil market cap with sales revenue of 15K and this share is at circa $60mil market cap with sales revenue of 7.5mil. I know, I know, 2 different companies/products....but the market for AHZ is at least that of PEB, with more products being sold and to be sold. Perhaps it's because we don't have so many bio-tech firms on the NZX?

[steve fleming]

Love your ID name btw.....;)

I will stay out for now. Seems like the biotech boom we been having for the last few months are tapering off. I am currently holding ACG in the biotech sector.

IVX, OSL and NAN are falling alongside with AHZ. SOM and ACG are both profitable so they are more well supported.

PRR has brought down a few biotechs with it.

certainly OSL has been affected as it had the same backers as PRR

think also there was a link between PRR and AHZ with the Frazers

[baller18]

up 11% today :t_up:

[baller18]

Too easy huh! add that to the 5 or 6% gains from yesterday and it's a pretty good little earner. (nearly 20% in 24 hours).

Looking at getting out though this arvo once the tide turns! Not sure I want to be in tomorrow once everyone starts selling to fund the rights issue...


What price are you thinking of getting out at?
Hard to say au, with the rights issue, with INA it didn't pullback at all..

[baller18]

PRR is down another 10.6% today, thinking if PRR is worth getting into atm...

[soulman]

I'm out at 7.9. If I understood the company more I might have stayed, but I don't so decided to take the quick profit.

This stock has done me well so far (up 40%) in two quick trades so decided to be happy with that and not be too greedy.

Going ex-entitlement tomorrow for the 1 for 5 new issue. Nice exit there turmeric for a short term fling.

Wonder how much it will fall tomorrow OR rise.

[baller18]

Well I don't claim to know much about this company, but looks like I may have got the short term right - a stack of volume which looks like it will bring the SP down a bit on opening this morning...Time to buy again?? ;)
I'm thinking the same thing, but biotech stocks are so volatile, it was more of a right call due to having the rights issue.
You think it'll go back up in a day again turmeric?

[baller18]

I'm thinking PRR could be a good medium hold...
PAA seems to be turning the corner, looking at the depth charts, large volume on the buyers side..

[blakecb]

I'm thinking PRR could be a good medium hold...
PAA seems to be turning the corner, looking at the depth charts, large volume on the buyers side..

PRR have just basically said their vaccine doesn't work, and that's the only product they have....so I think we will see a dead cat bounce followed by a downtrend.

With PAA, beware of significant resistance at circa 14cps....

[baller18]

PRR have just basically said their vaccine doesn't work, and that's the only product they have....so I think we will see a dead cat bounce followed by a downtrend.

With PAA, beware of significant resistance at circa 14cps....

Thanks blake, AHZ just realised some pretty good annoucement

[blakecb]

Thanks blake, AHZ just realised some pretty good annoucement

Nicely timed. I'm starting to like this company!

[baller18]

Dropped on opening and back up to 7.9 cents... nice...

[baller18]

excuse me its up 8.9 cents!!!!

[baller18]

Haha, well I was kinda right and kinda wrong (the announcement has certainly helped the SP which was something I didn't anticipate). I may well have gotten back in this morning had it not been for a meeting.... All good, happy for holders ;)
lol, I sold out yesterday because I'm going overseas for a month on sunday and would've been too much trouble sorting out the rights issue.. Oh well... no need to be too greddy :D

[baller18]

9.1 cents... sighs... lol

[Dej]

Seems this company has done a few people well! I got in around 7.5 and sold at 10 in a few days lol

[baller18]

Seems this company has done a few people well! I got in around 7.5 and sold at 10 in a few days lol
seems like anything below 8 is a good buy?

[Dej]

seems like anything below 8 is a good buy?

I dont know enough about the company to make a call like that, I just played momentum tbh.

[baller18]

http://3dfieldinmotion.blogspot.com.au/2012/10/allied-health-group-qualitative-analysis.html

Thanks KW, with all these products they have on offer, it is still a bit of a speculative play though right? A lot of their celxcel pipeline products are still being developed, and we won't know if its the best out there, as of yet..

[karen1]

http://3dfieldinmotion.blogspot.com.au/2012/10/allied-health-group-qualitative-analysis.html

KW, many thanks for the link. Less than a third the way through it, will keep me occupied for some time! If I hadn't already got in, there is enough in this link to make me very keen.
All about research, and this link is excellent for understanding the business and it's aims. I did my research by a more circuitous route, wish I had your link then!

And thanks again, it was your post #2 which flagged interest for me and made me take a close look. +62% in 6 weeks, and counting.

[karen1]

Cant take the credit, got it from a poster on Hotcopper.

Kudos to you for passing it on then! I have just got around to reading Hotcopper, some interesting posts there!

[p0ssy]

Nice to see some interest in this stock. I have been buying steadily over the last few weeks and whilst speculative it is not a one trick pony and would appear to be on the brink of obtaining a steady income stream via it's Cardiocel. I have resisted the temptation to trade this one and the fluctuations in SP over the last three days would seem to confirm this approach.

The vaccines under development may take 3-5 years before coming to market - I suspect AHZ will be absorbed by a larger Co by then.

Happy to ride the SP - it seems generally upward!

Good luck

[baller18]

Kill me!! up another 9% today! kill me! lol!

[Dej]

Kill me!! up another 9% today! kill me! lol!

Be happy with what you made, don't think of the opportunity cost of not selling. Imagine if it had gone the other way and you sold early rather than later. You would be happy.

Stick with the decisions you have made and don't look back. Hindsight is a b*tch.

[baller18]

Thanks Dej & Turmeric, definitely, not point of worrying about something I can't change, look for the next one!!!

[Dej]

Thanks Dej & Turmeric, definitely, not point of worrying about something I can't change, look for the next one!!!

Let us know what you find, we are all interested :)

[stanace]

When do we get to buy the shares at 5c?

[karen1]

When do we get to buy the shares at 5c?


Eligible shareholders should be receiving offer in the post any day now: http://www.alliedhealthcaregroup.com.au/News-Room/ASX-Announcements see second item

[p0ssy]

A speeding ticket is a rather spectacular finish to the week considering the extra shares came online on Wednesday/Thursday depending with whom you trade. Those who applied and received shares in the recent cap raising tripled their money.

I thought around 15c was a fair price for these but did not expect the SP to achieve that level this year. Interesting to see where it goes from here but with 26M buy side and 5m sell side - the downside looks rather limited.

good luck to all holders

[Toasty]

I see that they have made first sales of Cardiocel in Europe. Looks like big things ahead if the herpes vaccine trial is successful.

[zspoon]

No idea who is selling, but I'm extremely surprised we're back at these levels after the CardioCell FDA announcement, I would have expected more ongoing support at around 17-18c.

I guess AHZ needs to get some runs on the board in the US, still wondering whether they're going to go it alone over there or look for distribution opportunities.

[silu]

I'm holding a small parcel of AHZ bought after its review of operations. It did have a high cash burn and some clinical studies were too expensive. They realized that they have grown out from being a start-up to a global business.

I'm thinking of buying some more due to its growing revenues (forecast A$21m for 2016/2017) and implemented cost controls. Profitability is expexted by FY2018. However I have no real clue about their products and was wondering whether we have any surgeons here, or know any, that have experience with Admedus product like CardioCel?

[silu]

Admedus has kicked some goals of late most importantly that effective from 1st April they have signed an agreement with a GPO and they now have access to more than 1500 hospitals who are members of the GPO’s purchasing network which has an estimated purchasing power of $US35B. Admedus is one of two parties awarded a purchasing agreement to share the estimated $US5.2M per annum spend.

Little interview with the CEO to be found here https://www.finnewsnetwork.com.au/archives/finance_news_network169073.html

Personally I think they have an exciting period ahead and have topped up a bit at 27c.

[silu]

Btw can we change the title of this thread?

New presentation out https://www.asx.com.au/asxpdf/20180419/pdf/43tb9hp89yn3bw.pdf
Very impressive numbers if you believe management. Adapt sales increasing rapidly thus increasing gross margin for the whole business. I believe this stock can be a great investment over the coming 1-3 years.

discl. hold but DYOR

[silu]

Well I tend to post more in companies that are doing well so in this case a major mea culpa. They missed their forecasts by a mile and after a CR @ 30c in June THIS year they traded yesterday at 13.5c and have just announced another CR because otherwise they'd run out of cash. What a clown car I've decided to get into. I don't have that many shares with money I can afford to lose but I'm angry that I've become prey to a sweet-talking CEO again.
Ce la vie

[SirSlingy]

Ha - yep, I've had a small shareholding since 2013 where I had the priveledge of getting in at 10c. then they had a 1-10 consolidation and we are nearly back down to 10c again!!! Some serious value killing there - not even worth selling now!!

[silu]

Hot damn. They basically gave away the company to stay afloat. Employee Benefits almost equals total revenue. My loss is luckily only in the 4 digits - I knew this could happen but it still hurts. May have to resort back to the Buffett rule of 1. Don't loose money and 2. Revert to Rule No 1