ZEL - Z Energy.

[Banksie]

Z Energy IPO prospectus

https://www.nzx.com/companies/IFT/announcements/238968 (https://www.nzx.com/companies/IFT/announcements/238968)

[CJ]

Z Energy IPO prospectus

https://www.nzx.com/companies/IFT/announcements/238968 (https://www.nzx.com/companies/IFT/announcements/238968)The few bits I have read so far:

New shares to be issued to repay shareholder loans of $400m
IFT/Superfund will sell down 50 or 60%. Will retain ownership through joint holding company so they will retain equal ownership (ie. one is not selling more than the other)
8.1%+ Gross yeild.

The yeild is a lot more than I was expecting so I might have to have a look under the covers a bit more.

[Schrodinger]

Flat revenue, very slim margins and run by lawyers and accountants. Dont expect this to grow like Ryman.

I didnt find out what the yield is but there is a reason why Shell sold out-the return on capital is a fraction of oil exploration.

[CJ]

Flat revenue, very slim margins and run by lawyers and accountants. Dont expect this to grow like Ryman.That is my concern. Definately not a growth stock but may qualify as a good yeild stock??

Both articles are same from what I can tell:
http://www.nbr.co.nz/article/z-energy-raise-900-mln-ipo-payday-infratil-nz-super-3-year-investment-bd-143324
http://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/news/article.cfm?c_id=3&objectid=10903095

[CJ]

Flat revenue, very slim margins and run by lawyers and accountants. Dont expect this to grow like Ryman.Having said that, they have turned a $700m investment into an estimated $1.5B so will effectively hold their 40-50% at zero cost.

[Schrodinger]

Assuming their valuation of the business is correct. How was the original business valued?

If you are looking for a yield stock then you will have to be confident they can hold their margins to maintain the payments. Might be tough with declining fuel volumes, although they expect it to rise 5% this year. I would be looking at the longer term trends however.

Interesting that fuel makes up 95% of revenues so this is what I would be focusing on. If they can grow their other categories outside of fuel this could be attractive. I am not sure they can with the team they have in place...

[CJ]

If you are looking for a yield stock then you will have to be confident they can hold their margins to maintain the payments. Might be tough with declining fuel volumes, although they expect it to rise 5% this year. I would be looking at the longer term trends however.As I said, havne't looked under the covers yet but agree, the dividend yeild is only attractive if sustainable.

Did Shell really sell that cheap as I dont see the changes that have been made justify a doubling in value.

[Banksie]

Did Shell really sell that cheap as I dont see the changes that have been made justify a doubling in value.

This is the story from that time: http://www.stuff.co.nz/business/industries/3544437/Shells-owners-need-to-branch-out

[percy]

Did Shell really sell that cheap as I dont see the changes that have been made justify a doubling in value.

You may have hit a "bullseye" with that comment.

[moimoi]

Hmmm was that the reason for the recent run up in NZR....?

A little on-market buying to fluff up a more attractive transfer price of the holding across to Z Energy Ltd (as per today's NZR SSH notices)

;-)

[peat]

Did Shell really sell that cheap as I dont see the changes that have been made justify a doubling in value.

they have completely rebranded. and increased market share. They've definitely added value.

I haven't read the doc all through yet either , but couldn't find a EPS history.
The difference between ROC and HC seems to become a bit of a mountain out of a molehill.

[POSSUM THE CAT]

Why are so many service stations in West Auckland closing down. Maybe they intend to be the last man standing?

[CJ]

they have completely rebranded. and increased market share. They've definitely added value. They spent a lot of money to overhaul what was previously an old brand - you would expect an increase in market share. Is that increase sustainable?

[winner69]

Shoeshine in NBR had an interesting piece a week or so headed [B] Z Energy vamps its numbers but do they add up?[\b]

Think he was saying the accounting was all too confusing ....and was interested if z could increase the number of coffees from 30000 a week to the 170000 a week that bp sell

The CEO did tell him that share is back to where it was when they took over from shell

[bull....]

Shoeshine in NBR had an interesting piece a week or so headed [B] Z Energy vamps its numbers but do they add up?[\b]

Think he was saying the accounting was all too confusing ....and was interested if z could increase the number of coffees from 30000 a week to the 170000 a week that bp sell

The CEO did tell him that share is back to where it was when they took over from shell

they would need to do coffees etc like bp to get anywhere near that

[janner]

Confusion reigns ...

CJ. " Having said that, they have turned a $700m investment into an estimated $1.5B so will effectively hold their 40-50% at zero cost. "

CJ " Did Shell really sell that cheap as I dont see the changes that have been made justify a doubling in value. "

percy " You may have hit a "bullseye" with that comment "

peat " they have completely rebranded. and increased market share. They've definitely added value. "

winner69 " The CEO did tell him that share is back to where it was when they took over from shell ".

[winner69]

Essentially a private equity sell down ....and after they paid themselves a decent divie as well

How often have these sort of IPOs ended up in tears?

At least they don't seem to be using the 'iconic' story to lure the moms and dads into parting with their money

[winner69]

they would need to do coffees etc like bp to get anywhere near that

You saying z coffee crap ....or being nice not so good

[peat]

winner69 " The CEO did tell him that share is back to where it was when they took over from shell ".

yes this is correct they have slipped back from 32.5 in FY 11 and 12 to 30.4 in FY13
as per page 118

[winner69]

yes this is correct they have slipped back from 32.5 in FY 11 and 12 to 30.4 in FY13
as per page 118

Here's what was said. See bennetts on to the ipo bit ...share ain't anything if it costs shareholders. A large, chunk of z sales are 'commercial' but some of that info is commercial sensitive stuff.

Excerpt from shoeshine

Market share of all products has been declining since about mid 2011 and at about 28% is back where it was when the company rebranded.

However, Mr Bennetts is not concerned about that because the company concentrates on being within a certain band and as long as it has economies of scale it makes money.

“We believe that we are comfortably in that band right now. If we wanted to increase market share we could do that. But we think it would have an economic consequence that would destroy shareholder value.”

[winner69]

Sort of says no growth aspirations from fuel except what the market delivers

So it's all about more coffee and muffins and chocolate bars

[Jaa]

How have they managed to lose that much market share when they are virtually the only player building new service stations while others close them down?? There is more here than we are being told.

[Schrodinger]

Yes good points. Is their present management team capable of selling more coffees, chocolate bars and muffins? Based on performance since the acquisition, I would say no...

[percy]

Sort of says no growth aspirations from fuel except what the market delivers

So it's all about more coffee and muffins and chocolate bars

Exactly.With smaller cars using less petrol,there is no growth in the fuel market.
Just another retailer fighting in a tough market.
I must admit to finding it rather a waste of time when I go to the counter to pay for my petrol, to be asked if I want a coffee or overpriced chocolate bars.
No.!

[macduffy]

How have they managed to lose that much market share when they are virtually the only player building new service stations while others close them down?? There is more here than we are being told.

BP's 6c discount through the AA card wouldn't have helped Z compete at the retail end, despite their refurbished stations/service. Interesting though that BP appear to have come into line by reducing their discount recently to 4c.

Z is certainly not a growth stock, whichever way anyone tries to spin it. But at a prospective gross yield of 8%+ it warrants consideration for the income side of portfolios. Should be plenty of takers in today's environment.

[Arbitrage]

Interestingly, the CEO Mr Bennett, has written to all bondholders in Z Energy. He thanks them for having faith and investing in the business before it had established its credentials. However he stops short of offering bondholders a firm allocation of shares. He does say bondholders can apply to a "NZX firm" for an allocation then lists some selected brokers.
It is disappointing that the company has not set aside some shares as a pool for its existing bondholders. Mr Bennett must be confident he can unload all the shares without the bondholders help.

[CJ]

Z is certainly not a growth stock, whichever way anyone tries to spin it. But at a prospective gross yield of 8%+ it warrants consideration for the income side of portfolios. Should be plenty of takers in today's environment.Agree. Will be reading the prospectus over the weekend.

[bull....]

Fuel sales declining across industry so shop sales only growth part of business but even that under pressure.
I think BP would be the clear leader in shop sales because of their cafe an coffee offering , mobil tried it and have backed away except for the coffee which is comparable to bp offering , shell and caltex dont have the same offerings as far as coffee an cafe type offerings.
So maybe shell have room to grow coffee sales but they would need to invest in better coffee machines over say 100 high margin stores at 20k a coffee machine thats a 2mil investment so not cheap.
And with the fast food chains offering cheap under $5 deals how many people buy pies now? super markets opening in every subburb competition is fierce for the retail dollar
I go with previous posters it a income story only and if the market stays as a cosy 4 some income should be steady ( as ceo say going for market share would never work in this market as all players have deep pockets)

[Jaa]

Exactly.With smaller cars using less petrol,there is no growth in the fuel market.
Just another retailer fighting in a tough market.
I must admit to finding it rather a waste of time when I go to the counter to pay for my petrol, to be asked if I want a coffee or overpriced chocolate bars.
No.!

And the big volume commercial markets look pretty cut throat and low margin.

[percy]

Z is certainly not a growth stock, whichever way anyone tries to spin it. But at a prospective gross yield of 8%+ it warrants consideration for the income side of portfolios. Should be plenty of takers in today's environment.

Yes. I think you are right on the money.

[bermuda]

Sort of says no growth aspirations from fuel except what the market delivers

So it's all about more coffee and muffins and chocolate bars

Winner,
You are spot on. I had 24 years with BP. Retail margins got tighter and tighter after deregulation. Deregulation was needed. NZ had 1 service station per 3000 people which was 3 times the requirement. The dogs have died and are still dying. It has become a coffee/muffins and chocolate business. If you invest in this IPO then you can look forward to a pretty stable but boring return With a little bit of long term downside.....The fat in Service Station retailing has been well and truly removed.

Better opportunities elsewhere.

[CJ]

Having said that, they have turned a $700m investment into an estimated $1.5B so will effectively hold their 40-50% at zero cost.Tripled their money, not doubled:
http://www.nbr.co.nz/article/infratil-nz-super-fund-stand-triple-their-money-z-energy-investment-bd-143411

[p2r]

Will shareholders get discounted fuel?

[macduffy]

Will shareholders get discounted fuel?

I very much doubt it - if margins on retailing motor fuels are as slim as we're told they are!

The days of shareholder discounts belong to another era - most companies these days are giving priority to attracting the big institutions to their share registers. Loyalty card schemes are used to "reward" customers. OK, WHS offers shareholders a special discount on occasions but they seem to be the exception and it's not a 365 days a year arrangement. So, no.

[CJ]

Will shareholders get discounted fuel?
Maybe a one off sent out with AGM invite (like KFC) but not on a regular basis. Too hard to keep track of those trading in and out.

[winner69]

Maybe a one off sent out with AGM invite (like KFC) but not on a regular basis. Too hard to keep track of those trading in and out.

More like a voucher for a coffee and muffin - that's where the future is

[luigi]

The days of shareholder discounts belong to another era - most companies these days are giving priority to attracting the big institutions to their share registers. Loyalty card schemes are used to "reward" customers. OK, WHS offers shareholders a special discount on occasions but they seem to be the exception and it's not a 365 days a year arrangement. So, no.

HNZ offers shareholders 25 basis points on top of their advertised term deposit rates.

[CJ]

HNZ offers shareholders 25 basis points on top of their advertised term deposit rates.That's probably no different to what they are allowed to negotiate anyway.

I have a big discount off my floating mortgage and didnt need to be a shareholder to get that. Having said that, it would be nice to get it automatically rather than have to negotiate/threaten to leave to get it.

[bunter]

Anyone have any idea how easy it is to get a firm allocation of these? Are they in short supply, or are brokers struggling to find homes for them?

[CJ]

Anyone have any idea how easy it is to get a firm allocation of these? Are they in short supply, or are brokers struggling to find homes for them?Have registered with ASB but am not hopeful.

[Joshuatree]

Have heard a rumor there will be a scaledown but havnt substantiated this.

[Xerof]

I've been scaled to 20% of my requested volume for this. Tighter than SML

wondering whether it relates to individual broking house allocations being 'unevenly' distributed?

anyone else been advised of a firm allocation?

[Grimy]

Apparently I'll find out tomorrow.

[baller18]

Wow 650 - 900 million shares on offer, and scaled down by 20% damn!!

[macduffy]

Not by 20% but to 20% in Xerof's case!

I, too, hope to find out tomorrow.

[janner]

Not being a stagger.. good luck to all that want them.. Good dividend.. Ho hum...

Not willing to sell down to buy..

[iceman]

Not being a stagger.. good luck to all that want them.. Good dividend.. Ho hum...

Not willing to sell down to buy..

Ditto. If indicative dividends are maintaiend and share price holds up, this could be a good yield/income play though. But I will be watching this one with interest from the sidelines and enjoying the steady payments from my Z Bonds.
Good luck to buyers.

[janner]

Exactly !!.. there are better buys available.. IMHO..


Ditto. If indicative dividends are maintaiend and share price holds up, this could be a good yield/income play though. But I will be watching this one with interest from the sidelines and enjoying the steady payments from my Z Bonds.
Good luck to buyers.

[CJ]

I've been scaled to 20% of my requested volume for this.

anyone else been advised of a firm allocation?Which broker?


Apparently I'll find out tomorrow.anyone else been advised of a firm allocation?

[Balance]

I've been scaled to 20% of my requested volume for this. Tighter than SML

wondering whether it relates to individual broking house allocations being 'unevenly' distributed?

anyone else been advised of a firm allocation?

And price is set at?

Not possible for any firm to advise of allotment until price is set.

NZX and FMA need to be informed.

[CJ]

And price is set at?

Not possible for any firm to advise of allotment until price is set.

NZX and FMA need to be informed.Bookbuild, pricing and allocation not till 15/16 August but I assume some of the Brokers have been given a firm allocation already which they can allocate to their clients.

[Xerof]

Correct CJ, firm $ allocations were given to brokers yesterday. I have read the prospectus, asked for a firm allocation, got scaled, filled in the form, written out the cheque, and its in the mail.

I'll phone the police immediately Balance, possibly David Shearer as well

[CJ]

Correct CJ, firm $ allocations were given to brokers yesterday. I have read the prospectus, asked for a firm allocation, got scaled, filled in the form, written out the cheque, and its in the mail.At what price? The top of the price range?

[Xerof]

The application form is for a Dollar amount, not share amount. This IPO does appear to be structured a little different to the usual

Brokers all got their firm allocation dollar amount yesterday (see todays ann by Infratil) How they allocate to their clients is their concern, not mine. I would presume this is the retail part of the IPO, not all of it, as the price is set later by the book build. Retail is a pricetaker, not price setter

[macduffy]

Retail is a pricetaker, not price setter

Sad - but true.

There's no public pool in this one, so if you want to participate you need to put your hand up for a dollar amount. Of course, you can always decline to fill in the application form when received - but probably at the expense of some damage to your future client/broker relationship!

:cool:

[Anonymous]

I've been scaled to 20% of my requested volume for this. Tighter than SML

wondering whether it relates to individual broking house allocations being 'unevenly' distributed?

anyone else been advised of a firm allocation?

I've been offered this morning 100% of my requested amount, although as Macduffy says, I don't yet know if I will take it.

[bunter]

Which broker?

anyone else been advised of a firm allocation?
I got a third of the number I'd asked for.
Sounds like there's good demand.

[Joshuatree]

Looks like Craigs will give me all i can eat and pricing looking like lower end rather than higher but we will see.

[Balance]

Looks like Craigs will give me all i can eat and pricing looking like lower end rather than higher but we will see.

Classic IPO - Craigs keep lion share of retail allocation and give its clients 100% of what they ask for (all good and great on them - to be applauded) while rationing other brokers.

End result?

Clients of other brokers will try and get out on opening knowing that Craigs' clients have plenty to stag with.

[Anonymous]

Classic IPO - Craigs keep lion share of retail allocation and give its clients 100% of what they ask for (all good and great on them - to be applauded) while rationing other brokers.

End result?

Clients of other brokers will try and get out on opening knowing that Craigs' clients have plenty to stag with.

I don't think demand is as high as what people think. I'm not with Craigs and I certainly have never been offered 100% before of anything I have actually really wanted.

[Xerof]

Well, took 24 hours for the answer to my original question to be answered, which is that the non-organising Brokers (as usual) have been starved of supply.

I might be pleased to have only got 20% then, if all Craigs clients are going to choke on them.

Happy for price to be low end, nicer yield.....


Broker greed never ceases to amaze me

[Joshuatree]

Bit general, i won't be stagging for starters.

[Grimy]

My original amount requested has been scaled by 25%. Which means if the price doesn't hold at least I can top up cheaper if I want to, to my original $ amount.

[Balance]

http://www.stuff.co.nz/business/industries/8997570/Fuel-for-thought

Cautious optimism.

[Grimy]

I like being cautiously optimistic - it offsets my usual unbridled pessimism.......

[RRR]

I have applied for some but yet to hear back from Craigs.

[janner]

Not buying.. .. Not good value.. IMHO..

[Balance]

http://www.stuff.co.nz/business/money/8995604/Smart-team-behind-Z-offer

Unfortunately for retail investors, not much can be done about that because the price will be set after the closure of the broker firm offer on August 15. Retail buyers in the IPO will just have to hope for the best.

[RRR]

Below is what is posted on ASBSecurities website:

Z Energy Limited
ASB Securities have ceased registering interest in the offer, due to significant demand. Clients who have forwarded applications will be contacted as soon as possible to confirm if application was successful.
Applications are being filled on a first in first served basis, and scaling may apply.

[CJ]

Below is what is posted on ASBSecurities website:

Z Energy Limited
ASB Securities have ceased registering interest in the offer, due to significant demand. Clients who have forwarded applications will be contacted as soon as possible to confirm if application was successful.
Applications are being filled on a first in first served basis, and scaling may apply.i replied at 9.24 this morning. Cash still in the account so not hopeful.

[noodles]

i replied at 9.24 this morning. Cash still in the account so not hopeful.

CJ, i replied on friday afternoon. My funds are still in my CMA. I expect a call to say i've been scaled back (much like fonterra).

[tricha]

If i was to ask one question -


Why did Shell sell it ? The answer was in the NZ herald recently!

[macduffy]

i replied at 9.24 this morning. Cash still in the account so not hopeful.

Unlike dealings in already listed securities, I wouldn't expect funds to be automatically debited without applicants first signing application forms.

[CJ]

Unlike dealings in already listed securities, I wouldn't expect funds to be automatically debited without applicants first signing application forms.
I use their nominee account. They advised me to have clear funds in the account when I replied.

[CJ]

If i was to ask one question -


Why did Shell sell it ? The answer was in the NZ herald recently!i have invested for the yield part of my portfolio, not the growth part.

[PointyHat]

CJ, i replied on friday afternoon. My funds are still in my CMA. I expect a call to say i've been scaled back (much like fonterra).

I submitted my ASB securities application form at 5.42 Pm ( PDF & email letter) on Fri afternoon. Yesterday they confirmed they received it and will be allocating this morning in order of received. He would not be drawn on scaling when asked "will we get what we wanted". Money still in CMA at present time.

[kiwitrev]

I have not applied for any but significantly ASB Securities have not sought interest from me so I think this float will be well filled and scaling to be severe.

[CJ]

I have not applied for any but significantly ASB Securities have not sought interest from me so I think this float will be well filled and scaling to be severe.They closed off to new applications after 2 days, with 10 days still to go per the timetable, so yes, there is a lot of interest.

[MrAT]

Hmm. Same here, ASB would not say whether or not I will be scaled as of today.

[janner]

Nothing that you can do now.. Sit back and relax..

Disc. Did not apply..

[Balance]

I have not applied for any but significantly ASB Securities have not sought interest from me so I think this float will be well filled and scaling to be severe.

I heard from a Forbar broker that they were scaled back by over 50% for their clients but same clients (mutual with Craigs) got 100% of what they wanted from Craigs.

What does this tell us?

I think it's called hogging the IPO?

[Joshuatree]

Ive missed out totally in the past or got small amounts with other organizing brokers. Craigs have given me 100% for me, and also100% for my family estate account. so looks like im on a winning end this time round.

[Balance]

Ive missed out totally in the past or got small amounts with other organizing brokers. Craigs have given me 100% for me, and also100% for my family estate account. so looks like im on a winning end this time round.

Hope it works out, Joshuatree.

All the best.

[macduffy]

There are several "layers" of Arrangers, Bookrunners, Joint Lead Managers, Retail Affiliates, NZ Retail Co-Managers etc involved in this float - all with varying claims to the pie. Throw in the myriad individual broker/client relationships and their "values" and it's no wonder that experiences vary considerably.

For the record, I was scaled 50% - happy to sit on that and see how it goes!

[noodles]

Asb have scaled my application to $10000. I applied for $30000

[PointyHat]

Asb have scaled my application to $10000. I applied for $30000

Same here, asked for $35,000 from ASB Securities, have been offered $10,000. Better than nothing.

[QOH]

When are they due to be listed?

[CJ]

When are they due to be listed?Bookbuild next Thursday/Friday with trading to start the following Monday - 19 August.


Same here, asked for $35,000 from ASB Securities, have been offered $10,000. Better than nothing.Hmm - still haven't heard.

[sharer]

Bookbuild next Thursday/Friday with trading to start the following Monday - 19 August.

Hmm - still haven't heard.

Me neither. Was looking forward to owning Z longterm, filed "interest" early, shook cash loose from elsewhere to enable it, but brokers have not even sent me a prospectus or application form yet. So reluctantly concluding i'm sitting with Sam Goldwyn (of "Include me out!" fame).
I'll just have to be happy holding some of their bonds, & watching for some future market slump for a chance to swap some for equity, maybe.

Already started putting my hardearned into easily dumpable high yielders, with hopes of better luck in the Meridian sweepstakes.
In Parliament this afternoon govt said they hope to get MEL done within the month from today.

[Xerof]

change your broker, thats not good enough

At the risk of being reported to the FMA for trashing, who is your current broker?

[MrAT]

I applied last weekend. ASB haven't confirmed with me yet :(

[macduffy]

It's understandable if some ASB clients feel aggrieved that "their" broker hasn't performed very well in this IPO. But ASB aren't part of the arranging, organising or managing groups, so don't have much clout in the operation.

Another IPO and it will be someone else's turn to be unpopular.

:mellow:

[CJ]

It's understandable if some ASB clients feel aggrieved that "their" broker hasn't performed very well in this IPO. But ASB aren't part of the arranging, organising or managing groups, so don't have much clout in the operation.

Another IPO and it will be someone else's turn to be unpopular.

:mellow:agree in part

I don't mind missing out - its what you get with a discount broker. I missed out on Synlait and didn't complain even though I was disappointed.

It's the lack of communication. They said I had to have clear funds in my account. I did. But now they haven't contacted me to say if I am in or out. Do I have to keep the money their or should I have bought more DIL on Wednesday.

[MrAT]

ASB replied to my today. I got 80% for what I asked for. I was pretty disappoint with missing out on Synlait too. But I do agree, I just started share trading and ASB is the best I can go with currently.

[CJ]

Asb have scaled my application to $10000. I applied for $30000


Same here, asked for $35,000 from ASB Securities, have been offered $10,000. Better than nothing.


ASB replied to my today. I got 80% for what I asked for. I was pretty disappoint with missing out on Synlait too. But I do agree, I just started share trading and ASB is the best I can go with currently.did you get $10k by any chance? Looks like ASB may have scaled everyone down to $10k.

I got what what I wanted from ASB.

[Xerof]

Yep, 10k here too, asked for 25k

[RRR]

I deal with ASB and Craigs. Got full allocation from Craigs but I was very late in applying to ASB and they said sorry, too late!

[biker]

Got 70% from Craigs

[MrAT]

Yes, I got 10k too. Seems like they are scaling anyone who applied for more than 10k to 10k.

[CJ]

Morningstar have said dont buy so I have decided to go all in :) :

http://www.sharechat.co.nz/article/36484e42/investors-should-wait-until-after-z-energy-float-to-buy-shares-at-a-lower-price-morningstar-says.html?

[CJ]

CJ - I think that's wise. It looks like a good company to me. The only reason I didn't apply is because I have heaps of Chorus that gives me the yield quotient I want in my portfolio. Good luck with the IPO, hope you get a nice lift on day 1 too.Hard to tell as we dont know what the price is. For that reason I only put a little in.

I will be very disappointed if this one drops below IPO price - it doesn't need to go up much as I bought this one for yeild but if they are greedy and price too high, oh well.

[Balance]

Morningstar have said dont buy so I have decided to go all in :) :

http://www.sharechat.co.nz/article/36484e42/investors-should-wait-until-after-z-energy-float-to-buy-shares-at-a-lower-price-morningstar-says.html?

Best news Z can ever get!

Same Morningstar which told investors to stay clear of Fonterra, and recommended MRP with a valuation of $2.70 (risk dopwnisde if Labour gets back to power).

[CJ]

CJ, wouldn't going halves be a better idea? i.e. half with IFT and half with ZEL? ... ;)

discl: have had some IFT since the ZEL rumors started ... which was before IFT denied it in FebI'm loaded up on IFT. It is one of my early stock picks that was actually good, and I added to via the warrants. Have been enjoying their average 19%pa return for many, many years.

Disc: IFT is my second biggest holding after DIL. Have asked for a small helping of Z.

[robbo24]

Have asked for a small helping of Z.

I applied through DirectBroking and got no allocation.

A bit disappointing, I couldn't get any SYN or any of the more recent IPOs either.

[CJ]

I applied through DirectBroking and got no allocation.Did they not get any or you just got in to late. ASB didn't have SYN but got a small allocation to ZEL.

[CJ]

http://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/news/article.cfm?c_id=3&objectid=10912277Bit slow of the mark - just got in from a surf?


Best news Z can ever get!

Same Morningstar which told investors to stay clear of Fonterra, and recommended MRP with a valuation of $2.70 (risk dopwnisde if Labour gets back to power).

[goldfish]

Morningstar lol they always get it wrong i dont know why anyone bothers listening to there advice

[winner69]

Morningstar lol they always get it wrong i dont know why anyone bothers listening to there advice

Be funny if this time they got it right ...one day they will

[CJ]

Be funny if this time they got it right ...one day they willEven a broken clock is right twice a day. Hopefully not this time.

Bookbuild should be underway and announced tommorrow evening?? Any inside words on how it is going.

[Xerof]

Not that I ever read him, ahem, but a friend told me Lee's whine sheet today makes a point of mentioning unbelievable high demand coming from Aussie funds for Z, in love with the yield

[MrAT]

Disc: IFT is my second biggest holding after DIL. Have asked for a small helping of Z.

Could you just clear up something? As I am new to share trading and all. From ASB securities, IFT isn't giving 19% pa return anymore, it says 3.76%. Am I missing something with IFT? And... what is with DIL? People seem to be going crazy with it :O

Thanks!

[noodles]

Don't trust the data you read on Asb securities. Better to read annual reports. Ift will have the lower yield.

[CJ]

Could you just clear up something? As I am new to share trading and all. From ASB securities, IFT isn't giving 19% pa return anymore, it says 3.76%. Am I missing something with IFT? And... what is with DIL? People seem to be going crazy with it :O

Thanks!IFT dividend yeild is probably about 3% but its total return (dividend plus share price growth) is about 19%pa since inception - a very good track record.

DIL a great product, I got in a few years ago so have enjoyed great growth, hence its weighting in my portfolio. I thing it still has room to go so haven't taken profits.

[CJ]

Bookbuild should be underway and announced tommorrow evening?? Any inside words on how it is going.anyone heard? The Craig's guy on the midday news said it was being announced in a few minutes.

[schuey1]

Broker at Craigs has just advised $3.50

[CJ]

Broker at Craigs has just advised $3.50yip, and they sold down 60% which should be good for index weighting (?).

https://nzx.com/companies/IFT/announcements/239813

[Wolf]

Z was deciding on price around 3pm today would have been released but the earthquake seems to have postponed it.

[BIRMANBOY]

Young man...you have a filthy, filthy mind...Sister Mary Cecile says go and stand in the corner immediately!
http://3.bp.blogspot.com/-UxLaFiJcv08/UDlkPdKA8OI/AAAAAAAAC1w/uHdgvAQcUy0/s320/Nun+with+Ruler+dreamstime_12895823.jpg


post boned it? is that like sloppy seconds???

[peat]

is that like sloppy seconds???
those who don't get any from the IPO?

[MrAT]

http://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/news/article.cfm?c_id=3&objectid=10913546

3.50 guys!

[CJ]

Unknown broker picks a 5-10% pop. Sounds about right to me : http://www.nbr.co.nz/article/how-z-energy-will-fare-weekend-review-dw-144513

Our ridicule of Morningstar's recommendation is also noted

[Fuger]

I have been reading with amusement all the negative posts about morningstar, so I thought I'd raise this thread for the entertainment of Share traders,
posts #1344 to #1348 seem informative.

http://www.sharetrader.co.nz/showthread.php?514-WHS/page90&highlight=WHS

WHS open 17 May 2013 4.11
Lower 31 May 3.99
Lower 07 June 3.74
Lower still 14 June 3.68
BINGO! 25 June 3.60
28 June 3.54

So if Red Bull gives you wings, What does a Red Bull Moosie give you? And is it curable with penicillin?
if you are not into frivolous posts please don't bother reading this one!

[CJ]

I have been reading with amusement all the negative posts about morningstar, so I thought I'd raise this thread for the entertainment of Share traders,
posts #1344 to #1348 seem informative.

http://www.sharetrader.co.nz/showthread.php?514-WHS/page90&highlight=WHS

WHS open 17 May 2013 4.11
Lower 31 May 3.99
Lower 07 June 3.74
Lower still 14 June 3.68
BINGO! 25 June 3.60
28 June 3.54

So if Red Bull gives you wings, What does a Red Bull Moosie give you? And is it curable with penicillin?
if you are not into frivolous posts please don't bother reading this one!Morningstar got one right. Did they pick the negative sentiment that hit pumpkin patch, Kathmandu and Hallenstiens at the same time or was it luck (briscoes being the only retail stock unscathed).

I just don't find them reliable enough to use. I think the over subscriptions (and far better yield than MRP) in this case will make it more luckily to go up than down.

[MrAT]

And yet ASB securities offer Morningstar recommendations for their entire system... And this is floating on the 22nd yes?

[winner69]

Maybe Morningstar are using post-crash forecasts ...we need to wait and see

[Xerof]

And this is floating on the 22nd yes?

tomorrow, on a conditional basis

can one of you brokers explain how that works?

[macduffy]

Not a broker, but my understanding is that it is effectively a market - conditional in the sense that all formalities for listing take a while to complete.

[Joshuatree]

I rebalanced a little and took the tip off my iceberg ,RYM for some Z , RYM still by a long way my biggest holding. Sounds like a reasonable opening and a great yield ahead.

[QOH]

We could have a competition to pick closing price on day one.

[Wolf]

I say around 3.74

[QOH]

I'll go $3.90

[Balance]

http://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/news/article.cfm?c_id=3&objectid=10914088

Morningside versus Milford.

Morningside who had Fonterra horribly wrong, but Mighty River right (high risk) and Milford who has Moa and Ecoya (whatever it is now) horribly wrong, but Diligent right.

[CJ]

Morningstar got MRP wrong. They have a value of $2.70 which may have been right at open, was wrong for anyone who took their advice. They have got the odd one right though (whs)

[Balance]

Morningstar got MRP wrong. They have a value of $2.70 which may have been right at open, was wrong for anyone who took their advice. They have got the odd one right though (whs)

I stand corrected.

I picked up that some funds have been given decent allocations - so watch out for last minute pre-opening selling.

[baller18]

whats the code?

[777]

ZEL is the code.

[TimmyTP]

Code is ZEL

[CJ]

whats the code?ZEL

Predict it will hit 3.88 before settling around 3.69 at close.

[baller18]

It keeps coming up with bonds for asb and not ordinary shares...

[Xerof]

A fizzer for Craigs, clearly had too much to handle themselves, if Balance is saying they dumped on funds late in the piece

3.53

[TimmyTP]

It keeps coming up with bonds for asb and not ordinary shares...
Try substituting the exchange mnemonic from another stock in your address bar.
Something like:
https://ost.asbbank.co.nz/<bunchOfNumbers>/quotesummary/index/nzx/zel (https://ost.asbbank.co.nz/06FD7C32967E0E972E66AA01D3AC0352/quotesummary/index/nzx/zel?tab=1)

[BlackCross]

It keeps coming up with bonds for asb and not ordinary shares...

I don't think ASB got any of the pre issue action so looks like they're sulking ;o)

[CJ]

I don't think ASB got any of the pre issue action so looks like they're sulking ;o)ASB always slow to update their search box for new listings. You have to force it :


Try substituting the exchange mnemonic from another stock in your address bar.
Something like:
https://ost.asbbank.co.nz/<bunchOfNumbers>/quotesummary/index/nzx/zel (https://ost.asbbank.co.nz/06FD7C32967E0E972E66AA01D3AC0352/quotesummary/index/nzx/zel?tab=1)

[CJ]

Opened at 3.73 with early trades (first few minutes) between 3.71 and 3.74

[BlackCross]

If you go to company announcements on ASB and look for ZEL and click on it then it will give you a quote.

[MrAT]

The NZX website has a live updating value of the ZEL share. Just wondering, does ASB automatically update my portfolio or do I have to do it myself? I dont even know how many shares in Z energy I have right now....

[TimmyTP]

The NZX website has a live updating value of the ZEL share. Just wondering, does ASB automatically update my portfolio or do I have to do it myself? I dont even know how many shares in Z energy I have right now....
You are probably best to RTFM (https://www.asbsecurities.co.nz/story3754.asp), ask ASB or go here (http://www.sharetrader.co.nz/forumdisplay.php?22-The-Newbies-Corner-The-place-for-the-Newbies-to-ShareTrader) for help with that.

[Xerof]

Pleasantly surprised, and out at the auction.

to find out your allocation, go to link market services, follow prompts for a single stock, ZEL, your CSN and FIN, and all will be revealed

to add it to an ASB watchlist, click Add new stock, enter ZEL.

ASB will not update your portolio MrAT

[MrAT]

Pleasantly surprised, and out at the auction.

to find out your allocation, go to link market services, follow prompts for a single stock, ZEL, your CSN and FIN, and all will be revealed



You are probably best to RTFM (https://www.asbsecurities.co.nz/story3754.asp), ask ASB or go here (http://www.sharetrader.co.nz/forumdisplay.php?22-The-Newbies-Corner-The-place-for-the-Newbies-to-ShareTrader) for help with that.


Thanks guys, got it!

[RTM]

Wow.....25.6 mil shares traded already out of a total of ~240mil. 10%
Seems a high number....is this typical of IPO's ?

[winner69]

Wow.....25.6 mil shares traded already out of a total of ~240mil. 10%
Seems a high number....is this typical of IPO's ?


37 mill in nz and 10m in oz so far

Often up to 50% can get churned in the first week or so

Brokers just love IPOs eh ......kaching kaching or whatever noise a cash register makes

[CJ]

Predict it will hit 3.88 before settling around 3.69 at close.
Finished the first day at 3.66 (up 4.5%) with a high of 3.74 and low of 3.64. Not too far of the close I was expecting.

[CJ]

Finished the first day at 3.66 (up 4.5%) with a high of 3.74 and low of 3.64. Not too far of the close I was expecting.Doing well today. Opened above close and has been climbing.

I hope those morningstar investors are poised for when the price does settle ;)

[FarmerHamilton]

Doing well today. Opened above close and has been climbing.

I hope those morningstar investors are poised for when the price does settle ;)

378/379 , there was a big line for sale at $3.75 but as soon as those got swallowed up the shares have been off to the races. Another great IPO to follow Synlait Milk. I got $15,000 worth from ForBarr ( 4,285 shares ). Was tempted to stag pretty quickly but am holding as I think this could get to $4 by the end of the year , especially if interest rates back off a bit after the recent spike.

[Joshuatree]

Ditto here ,holding. Thanks to Craigs i got all i wanted in Z and a few Synlait. Feels like money in the bank with the div a great quasi int rate.

[CJ]

Doing well today on no news???

What is the chance it will be added to the NZX50 this month - it should rank higher than 25th???

[tricha]

In this you might to an understanding as to why Shell sold out. But by all accounts Z has done a wonderful job of rebranding it.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8j4Tyy5nsQ8

[Wolf]

Tricha that youtube video is quite outdated being from 2009. The fuel industry is changing.
With new technology Fuel Exploration is able to go deeper/use different methods and ultimately drill for oil in places they couldn't in 2009. The refining process has also got more efficient. Ethanol fuel has also came a far way. Oil is definitely decreasing but not on a scale as large as shown in the video.

Shell sold out as it is focusing on off shore exploration where there is a lot more money to be made as well as a lot of risk.

[tricha]

Tricha that youtube video is quite outdated being from 2009. The fuel industry is changing.
With new technology Fuel Exploration is able to go deeper/use different methods and ultimately drill for oil in places they couldn't in 2009. The refining process has also got more efficient. Ethanol fuel has also came a far way. Oil is definitely decreasing but not on a scale as large as shown in the video.

Shell sold out as it is focusing on off shore exploration where there is a lot more money to be made as well as a lot of risk.

Wolf

Shell are very aware of the situation. Would you sell a company that is a key part of your distribution chain, unless.????

Anyway this one is 2011 and Shell is mentioned again. Here it is quite clear that all is not WELL.
It is presented by very knowledgeable people. It also shows the IEA as being completely incompetent.
You can read into this what you like, unfortunately as you know human nature doesn't like change.
Change is about to be unleashed, ready or not.



http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=RaNz3qS5WAo

[CJ]

This morning Goldman Sachs came out of their research blackout on Z Energy and initiated coverage with a BUY rating and a 12-month price target of NZ$4.35.

[percy]

This morning Goldman Sachs came out of their research blackout on Z Energy and initiated coverage with a BUY rating and a 12-month price target of NZ$4.35.

Thanks for that CJ. What is Goldman Sachs record like?

[janner]

Thanks for that CJ. What is Goldman Sachs record like?


Their Criminal one or their Financial one ??

[percy]

Their Criminal one or their Financial one ??

Somehow I just knew I had made a mistake asking that question.!
Financial!
Soundness of their research record!i

[peat]

Thanks for that CJ. What is Goldman Sachs record like?
Haha Janner
I was going to ask if Percy meant their record for their clients or for themselves.

[Joshuatree]

Did my buying in the IPO and not trading this, its a great keepa atp.

[percy]

Was not going to buy any,but why my broker rang me and said he had some for me I changed my mind.
Therefore I am over the moon with how it is going.Not looking to sell,but to hold for the long term,enjoying the steady good dividends.
Feel we are "well positioned."

[macduffy]

Z don't say it in as many words but I suspect that they see good opportunities for growth in the non-fuels side of the business - the convenience store, café, carwash etc. For example, BP are reported to sell more coffee than any other single entity in NZ, a part of the business that Shell didn't do much with in the "old days" but which is a feature of the renovated "new look" Z stations.

[CJ]

Z don't say it in as many words but I suspect that they see good opportunities for growth in the non-fuels side of the businessI actually think they are quite explicit on this. It wasn't a focus under Shell but the new store refurbishments, more friendly staff, pump service are there for one reason only, to get customers out of the car and into their stores.

Surfersteve - price of petrol shouldn't effect shareprice, it's all about the margins they are able to charge.

[macduffy]

I agree, CJ. I was referring to the Investment Statement which devotes little space to the non-fuels business. Not surprising, of course, bearing in mind the limits on what can be "spruiked" in such a document. Nice photos, though!

[Wolf]

http://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/news/article.cfm?c_id=3&objectid=11152969&ref=rss
https://www.nzx.com/files/attachments/184726.pdf

[Wolf]

Net profit has doubled yet no response from share price. Possibly under the radar because of all the attention on SaaS companys and PEB? Dividends coming up i'm considering topping up but i'm having too much fun trading PEB, XRO :)

[Wolf]

http://www.stuff.co.nz/business/industries/9376033/Z-hits-nail-on-head-with-refit-strategy
Pretty lonely on this thread.

[macduffy]

You're right, Wolf, too much going on elsewhere to get attention! But the interim result was pretty much in line with the prospectus forecast and the company affirmed guidance for the full year, ie it met expectations and didn't excite the market to bid the price up.

[Wolf]

True still thought we'd get a small reaction at least. Surely this derisk's it for some people showing that they are on track. Thought some dividend investors might have switched from Chorus to Z :)

[macduffy]

Some comment here on the interim result.

http://www.macquarie.com.au/dafiles/Internet/mgl/au/apps/retail-newsletter/docs/2013-11/ZELNZ071113e.pdf?cid=&spMailingID=7336554&spUserID=NzAyMzE2NTY2MzIS1&spJobID=96944946&spReportId=OTY5NDQ5NDYS1

[winner69]

Some comment here on the interim result.

http://www.macquarie.com.au/dafiles/Internet/mgl/au/apps/retail-newsletter/docs/2013-11/ZELNZ071113e.pdf?cid=&spMailingID=7336554&spUserID=NzAyMzE2NTY2MzIS1&spJobID=96944946&spReportId=OTY5NDQ5NDYS1

Jeez guru analysts getting even more guru(ire) coming up with things like *A terricolae is a term designating annelid worms including earthworms. In other words “The worm has turned”.

Suppose they not too impressed ....and just a steady as she goes investment with some downside risk

[vorno]

...on the smaller side of things, a Z station is planned I believe on the North Shore (AKL) on Onewa. Noting that there is already a BP at either end of the street and they're trying smack bang in the middle on a very busy street (crap position).

Some would think this is good... but some have forgotten that the Caltex up the road went out of business.

Anyone local got a recommendation of their own? I think it is going to fail (the planned station that is).

[couta1]

This stocks getting hammered lately thin on the buy side glad I only purchased for dividend at 3.81

[Wolf]

Where have all the buyers fled too? I borrowed money for this one in the ipo.. Might have to set a stop loss

[macduffy]

Not directly related to ZEL but it's interesting that Shell is now also in the process of selling its Australian retail assets.

http://www.smh.com.au/business/tpg-circles-in-3b-sale-of-shell-petrol-stations-20140107-30fg0.html

[couta1]

Thoughts on where this is heading this year? Thinking of ditching my holding and buying more growth stock elsewhere,industry looks tight to me but if $4.50 target gets hit could be worth holding?

[couta1]

Watch crude prices closely as the US shale boom starts, could be a big drop in world prices which would squeeze already tight margins.

I do like the way they communicate though. Always having Q&A time on Facebook and seem to have Kiwi's heart attached to the company by championing NZ Super Fund. Don't you want to support your retirement couta?

Also remember about diversification. I'd suggest waiting for a price correction in the growth sector before buying WYN, PEB or SLI (buy low, sell high, not the other way around!). if you sell ZEL maybe consider more SUM instead to keep the risk in yhe same category (ie low)?
Cheers Moosie,Yep was thinking of some more Sum or buying back some Rym,lm not relying on divvies to survive so looking to maximize return long term and growth stocks are in, there's also that Serko listing coming up that looks appealing,I've got enough dead money tied up in Dil so just looking to tweak things to get max benifit

[Harvey Specter]

Thoughts on where this is heading this year? Thinking of ditching my holding and buying more growth stock elsewhere,industry looks tight to me but if $4.50 target gets hit could be worth holding?its not a growth stock so if you are holding for that purpose - sell. It is a good defensive stock which pays a good dividend.

Disc: I hold this rather than have a diversified portfolio that incl bonds.

[couta1]

I've always considered it a slightly volatile stock due to the nature of the main products it sells rather than defensive?

[Harvey Specter]

I've always considered it a slightly volatile stock due to the nature of the main products it sells rather than defensive?As a long term hold, slightly volatile is irrelevant. Much like my power shares, which have seen a destruction of wealth over the past 12m, people will still need electricity/petrol so those dividends will continue to flow.

In hindsight, I should have put more money into WYN,PEB,etc which are in the growth part of my portfolio but the plan is to be balanced.

[couta1]

Does anyone know the approximate dividend yield on these if purchased at $3.80, they have only paid 7 odd cents to date so 2% at the moment? Cheers

[Joshuatree]

My broker has them at 8.1% Gross yield forecast @$3.73for this year and 8.7% for next. I bought for the longterm too.

[couta1]

My broker has them at 8.1% Gross yield forecast @$3.73for this year and 8.7% for next. I bought for the longterm too.
Cheers,the cents per share payable at next divvy must be going to increase significantly then to get to 8% level

[Harvey Specter]

My broker has them at 8.1% Gross yield forecast @$3.73for this year and 8.7% for next. I bought for the longterm too.


Cheers,the cents per share payable at next divvy must be going to increase significantly then to get to 8% levelMy quick maths based on JT comment suggests that would require a 16c fully imputed final dividend.

And from the prospectus:


The first dividend to Shareholders is forecast to be
$31 million declared in respect of profits earned in
the six-month period to 30 September 2013 and
will be payable in November or December 2013.
This dividend represents approximately 35%
of the total forecast year dividend, with the
remaining $57 million expected to be paid in
May or June 2014.

[Joshuatree]

Duplicate .Harvey beat me to it:)

[Joshuatree]

Turning into a good story from listing. Gone X 14.3c div 21 may and nearly back to pre div price already. Marsden Pt performance may be struggling tho.

[percy]

Well my dividend is in my bank.

[Harvey Specter]

Seems to be trending down after failing to get above $4 again. Has hit the 200 day MA.

Disc: sold out last week to buy a new car. May look to get back in depending on how how low it gets.

[Joshuatree]

Hey harvey if your car has a bigger motor then global warming coutas and you promise to fill up at Z I'm buying:).
The operational update just out looks stable albeit a little flat/down compared with same time last year.. Refining margin (mars den the problem child) way down mainly due to the shutdown however. Importer margins up nicely. Good to be cautious but its been trading rangebound for a little while. Will watch closely cheers JT

[couta1]

Even though I held Z shares I couldn't fill up there have to use BP for the 98 octane(Not a great fan of BP) my old T-Bucket used to run on half 98 and half Av gas sometimes it feels good to be anti PC in this modern age aye:cool: PS-Not sure if HS would want to be driving around in a motor bigger than 9.3 litres as a daily driver with only getting 4.5k/liter of fuel.

[Harvey Specter]

Hey harvey if your car has a bigger motor then global warming coutas and you promise to fill up at Z I'm buying:).unfortunately yes as the family no longer wants to squeeze into the Suzuki Swift. Engine size has now more than doubled and gets a rather unhealthy (except compared to Couta!!!) 11l per 100km.

I am not suggesting it is a bad company. I sold as it was unlike to spike up (being a good steady dividend play) but was suffering from the general negative sentiment that appears to be in the market at the moment. As I said, I may well buy back in and in in case, I sill hold some via IFT (which was the other one which was on the chopping block but I kept as a more diversified play).

[Onion]

A nice recent climb up toward $4.00. Anyone have any insights?

[Joshuatree]

Price of oil dropping maybe helps. Im relieved as she got close to the 180DMA and is now back above the 60DMA .

[Harvey Specter]

A nice recent climb up toward $4.00. Anyone have any insights?Thats quite an impressive rise. I sold just before it crossed the 200EMA which looked like the right thing to do (even in hindsight) until this little rally happened.

[Joshuatree]

Jumped 7c to anew high today $4.09 re 490,000 shares through, highest vol since june. Latest quarter margins up but most other figs flat or slightly down. Punters going more defensive maybe.Shot above 50DMA on 22nd

[Joshuatree]

651,000 sharers thru today s/p $4.16. Was checking the depth yest and saw re 6000 shares out on their own @ $4.20. They got snaffled so looks like a keen buyer hoovering up all shares offered. May be offering a few myself in the next few days

[bunter]

I've been wondering why all the interest. Time for a 'please explain' notice?
Worth 5.50 by my model, but the share price seems to be saying some good news is coming.

[Harvey Specter]

I've been wondering why all the interest. Time for a 'please explain' notice?
Worth 5.50 by my model, but the share price seems to be saying some good news is coming.I think it has just been the shift to defensive yield stocks that has benefited Z.

I sold out recently thinking it would track sideways as I didn't pick the shift from growth to yield stocks. Still invested via IFT and I have plenty of power stocks so haven't missed the shift completely.

[Harvey Specter]

I've been wondering why all the interest. Time for a 'please explain' notice?
Worth 5.50 by my model, but the share price seems to be saying some good news is coming.I think it has just been the shift to defensive yield stocks that has benefited Z.

I sold out recently thinking it would track sideways as I didn't pick the shift from growth to yield stocks. Still invested via IFT and I have plenty of power stocks so haven't missed the shift completely.

[Joshuatree]

I've been wondering why all the interest. Time for a 'please explain' notice?
Worth 5.50 by my model, but the share price seems to be saying some good news is coming.

I like your model bunter:). Craigs have changed from a hold to a buy with 1 year target of $4.64(was $4.11) and net yield steadily increasing from 5.8% now to 7.6% in 2017.

Am watching CTX Z's equivalent in Aus (transforming out of refining to straight retailer)as well.

[bunter]

Puzzled to see ZEL's share price weakness. Oil has gone up a bit, but...

- It stands to receive a fully imputed div from NZR for FY15 worth 5c per Z share , plus approx 15cps (unrealisable) capital gain on NZR's share price rise since ZEL's last report. Might as well pass the full 5c div on to its shareholders, with IC, IYAM (special div?)
- It's getting a refund of 2014's 'floor' payment from NZR.
- Its core business must have had a good six months - add another 2-3 c to that final div.

So... last year - 20.3c FI div
2015 - say - 28c FI - for a gross yield on current SP of 4.66 of 8.34%

[Joshuatree]

Been a fab run up to $5 bunter , maybe some profit taking from there.. Also caltex unlagged margins dropping.

[Beagle]

If oil prices rise I think the market is concerned Z won't be able to achieve the extra margin's its been able to extract from its customers.

[bunter]

Agree Roger, JT.

Another NZR-related benefit, apart from the NZR div and NZR capital gain, is the refining margin cap.

Currently the cap is in place - actual refining margin $10, cap $9.

Presumably this $1 per barrel benefit flows to Z, BP Caltex etc.

Next year, with TMH online, if all goes well, today's $1 margin will be worth $2.16.
Higher margins are possible.

My calcs say that's worth approx 1.6c per Z share per dollar the refining margin is above the cap.

[bunter]

Some analysis on Z looking at the effect on Z of forecast improvement in NZR performance for 2014, 2015 and maybe beyond.

My valuation goes from $5.66 to $6.37, assuming the NZR benefit to be non-recurring.

So a moderate benefit, and not a better way to get exposure to NZR than buying NZR.

FB figures here (http://www.odt.co.nz/news/business/320080/z-energy-poised-reap-benefit-recovery-nz-refinings-margins)




8/02/15


gf
8.0%

ZEL






SP
4.620

SOI
400























14 e

15
16
17
18
19
20
21




NPAT ul - excl NZR

119
128
139
150
162
175
189
204




NPAT ul - from NZR
0
23
34
28
22
22
22
22




Total NPAT ul
119
151
172
178
184
197
211
226




eps ul
0.297
0.378
0.431
0.444
0.460
0.492
0.526
0.564




payout %
80%
83%
84%
83%
82%
82%
82%
82%




GDPS - excl NZR
0.329
0.356
0.384
0.415
0.448
0.484
0.522
0.564




GDPS - from NZR
0.000
0.080
0.118
0.097
0.077
0.077
0.076
0.076

0.433


GDPS - total
0.329
0.436
0.502
0.512
0.525
0.560
0.599
0.640




gy%
7.1%
9.4%
10.9%
11.1%
11.4%
12.1%
13.0%
13.9%

















Valuations













Graham 14
7.28











Div flow
7.05











Div flow exc NZR
6.07











NPV of NZR benefit approx
0.3











Div flow exc NZR + NPV NZR div
6.37

























RC operating EBITDAF












https://www.nzx.com/files/attachments/203281.pdf - p16 (https://www.nzx.com/files/attachments/203281.pdf%20-%20p16)
Z's preferred measure of profit. HC = historic cost of fuel; RC = replacement cost




NPAT-ul













Z forecast RCEBITDAF 15 220-240m (say 240)
240











DA*
41











I*
34











RCEBT
165











T
46.2











underlying NPAT
118.8











ul eps
0.2970











* 14H1*2












ZEL's NZR shareholding













Z's NZR shares m
48











total NZR shares m
313











Z's %
15.4%
























ZEL's NZR dividend (all figures net)

14
15
16
17
18
19
20
21




NZR div cps
0
0.345
0.414
0.439
0.463
0.461
0.459
0.457




to Z $m
0
17
20
21
22
22
22
22




to Z cps
0
0.041
0.050
0.053
0.056
0.055
0.055
0.055






























Z's processing fee cap benefit

14
15
16
17
18
19
20
21




margin est
0
10
11
10
9
8
7
6




Cap surplus
0
1
2
1
0
0
0
0




BBPA
42.6
42.6
45.6
45.6
45.6
45.6
45.6
45.6




Cap effect $m
0
42.6
91.2
45.6
0
0
0
0




to Z $m
0
6.54
14.00
7.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00




to Z cps
0
0.016
0.035
0.018
-
-
-
-

















NZR SP change

0.92











in $m
44











cps Z
0.110

[couta1]

Anyone got any thoughts on where Zel share price is heading? Other than dipping below the MA50 I can't see anything conclusive either way, looks like it may be near its bottom for now but maybe not.I'm looking to reenter after selling out last year ( Must be a few of us that wished we hadn't) as a divvy play, thanks in advance.

[Baa_Baa]

No, who would know where it's heading, except down at the moment. It's on my yield watchlist. After a stellar run, even through the early stages of the Oil price rout, it's selling off right now. Perhaps better to just keep an eye on it and wait until a confirmed uptrend sets in again. Just because it's under the 50MA isn't any indication of whether it's near a low (bottom). most confirming indicators suggest there's plenty more downside to come. Just chill and watch and wait, don't buy into down trends, imho.

BAA


Anyone got any thoughts on where Zel share price is heading? Other than dipping below the MA50 I can't see anything conclusive either way, looks like it may be near its bottom for now but maybe not.I'm looking to reenter after selling out last year ( Must be a few of us that wished we hadn't) as a divvy play, thanks in advance.

[Grimy]

What's with the 12cent price rise today (petrol-not share price)?

[couta1]

No, who would know where it's heading, except down at the moment. It's on my yield watchlist. After a stellar run, even through the early stages of the Oil price rout, it's selling off right now. Perhaps better to just keep an eye on it and wait until a confirmed uptrend sets in again. Just because it's under the 50MA isn't any indication of whether it's near a low (bottom). most confirming indicators suggest there's plenty more downside to come. Just chill and watch and wait, don't buy into down trends, imho.

BAA
Cheers Baa Baa, I did notice someone was keen to offload at $4.50 as I watched the close today so good chance it may go lower.

[couta1]

What's with the 12cent price rise today (petrol-not share price)?
According to the AA website the last petroleum rise was on Feb 16th at 4c/liter

[Baa_Baa]

No worries mate, a 50MA breakdown is more usually a sell signal. There's no need to bail out the $4.5 seller, leave it to someone else.
Put these indicators on your chart; Williams %R - fast; RSI - short term; MACD - a bit slower; DMI - slightly slower again; Money Flow and Volume - show you where the $ are going and how much. These simple indicators along with the 50EMA and 200EMA will give you insights when to enter and exit. You can move early, middle or later, depending on how much confirmation you prefer. If they all confirm, buy, or sell. Don't agonise over being the first to buy a bottom, or the first to sell a top- that's gambling. Most moves run for long enough for the indicators to inform a timed entry or exit. If they don't run (a fake out), stay in, or out, depending on your position. It's just about timing, and you can't time something that you can't see or by guessing.

BAA


Cheers Baa Baa, I did notice someone was keen to offload at $4.50 as I watched the close today so good chance it may go lower.

[Baa_Baa]

Couta, this is what I mean:

Money Flow - out, confirming people are exiting.
Williams %R - note it signalled early the sell off the top.
RSI - confirmed the sell down a few days later
MACD - crossed down as the RSI went through 0.
DMI - crossed down at the 50MA.

Everything says down. Wait these these start reversing, in the same order.

7086

[Beagle]

http://www.nzherald.co.nz/nz/news/article.cfm?c_id=1&objectid=11404872

I think there's a general consensus out there that the fuel companies were incredibly slow to reduce retail prices but that the extent and speed of recent increases is in very stark contrast and looks unjustified.

Looks like the Govt wern't impressed either. Thinly veiled waiving of the regulation stick ?...implications for Z's margin's going forward ?

[Wolf]

http://www.interest.co.nz/news/74132/energy-and-transport-minister-bridges-warned-oil-companies-about-high-profit-margins-earl


Z Energy said MBIE data on fuel profit margins was no longer accurately measuring sales data or all of the costs that determine profit margins.CEO Mike Bennetts said through a statement that fuel companies were competing harder with a range of new ways to win customers, including through service, price discounting, loyalty offers and a wide range of discounts beyond the price board. These affected margins, but were not reflected in MBIE data.
“MBIE has historically monitored and reported fuel importer margins, but this reporting has not kept up with rapidly changing competitive dynamics and the methodology is now flawed," Bennetts said.
"As a result, the gap between this reported margin and Z’s actual margins has been growing and the quality of the data has become a problem that needs to be addressed," he said

[Baa_Baa]

is the govt levy on fuel a % of retail or fixed per litre?

[Harvey Specter]

is the govt levy on fuel a % of retail or fixed per litre?Levy is fixed. GST is %.

NZ has one of the highest petrol prices in the world, due to tax.

[bohemian]

Have you paid for fuel in Europe? Now that's expensive.

[Baa_Baa]

Isn't it hypocritical of the govt to wave a wet bus ticket at the fuel companies when the govt's outrageous levy margin is immune to changing retail prices. Oh of course they do it 'for the people' yeah right? Is there actually a government regulator, or just MBIE gathering the data?

[Joshuatree]

I've been wondering why all the interest. Time for a 'please explain' notice?
Worth 5.50 by my model, but the share price seems to be saying some good news is coming.

Heading fast to your last valn bunter; a new high.. CTX in Aus (ZEL's equivalent)is looking int to me too after a big sellout by chevron.Transforming from refiner to retailer.

[bull....]

had a read of there report into petrol pricing, I must say very entertaining

https://www.nzx.com/companies/ZEL/announcements/263348

[theace]

Report wouldn't be the cause for the (close to) 4% drop in share price?

[noodles]

Report wouldn't be the cause for the (close to) 4% drop in share price?
A NZ broker downgraded earnings today.

[Beagle]

Well, well, well.... Irrespective of what NZIER says I would still bet a few bob that they dragged the chain last summer with retail price declines on the back of such a major decline in oil price. I still reckon they're thieves and Z is by far the worst in the area I live. They have massively over-played their local ownership hand IMHO.

[bull....]

http://www.stuff.co.nz/business/money/67911139/z-energy-hits-back-at-petrol-price-cynics

The AA I find just as entertaining, well educated people no doubt

[Beagle]

One wonders if this report was truly independent as it was paid for by Z...just like all those "independent" auditors reports of finance companies were paid for by the finance companies themselves.

When you're being paid a big fat fee by an energy company one can ponder if that didn't affect the outcome ?

[percy]

One wonders if this report was truly independent as it was paid for by Z...just like all those "independent" auditors reports of finance companies were paid for by the finance companies themselves.

When you're being paid a big fat fee by an energy company one can ponder if that didn't affect the outcome ?
Not so.
NZIER has a record of being "totally independent".
Their history of producing sound research is the best in NZ.

[bull....]

trading halt pending major acquisition - Caltex , mobil or nz refining ?

[bull....]

buying Caltex I believe

[Joshuatree]

Im banking on them picking up caltex nz after chevron sold its caltex ops in aus recently. caltex has re 220 gas stations here. Cant remember what it worked out per shell station.

[bull....]

jt - afr says Caltex for around 800m

[Joshuatree]

cheers , got it. "The deal includes a $NZ 150 mill cap raise

The dual-listed Z Energy has indicated it would be interested in acquiring more service stations if they came to market, while fund managers say there is significant upside on offer from a service station mop-up.

[barleeni]

http://www.afr.com/street-talk/z-energy-to-buy-chevrons-new-zealand-network-20150601-ghds1w

[trader_jackson]

Wow, big announcement: https://www.nzx.com/companies/ZEL/announcements/265080

[Harvey Specter]

Wow, big announcement: https://www.nzx.com/companies/ZEL/announcements/265080Buying for $785. By comparison, ZEL has a market cap of $2B.

Other strong players in the market so I assume they will get ComCom approval.

They will no doubt consoldiate the brands over time and will get backend efficencies out of this.

Must be positive. Having said that, it has had a very strong run ever since I sold out :(

[Regi]

Up 45 cents at opening! All I can say is damn... wish I was a holder before today. Congrats to all of you.

[trader_jackson]

$6 by the end of the day? on track for it, started up around 40c, now up 80c?

Well done to all those holding, nice gain since IPO that is for sure.

(Unfortunately I am not one of the holders)

[Harvey Specter]

Why has it increased so much. A 15% increase is $300m in value created from a purchase of $785 - I cant imagine Chevron left that much on the table.

[Crackity]

Maybe Mobil / BP and Gull should be sending Mike Bennetts some champagne? Possibly the market is assuming higher profits with one less player - I'm certainly not suggesting that our petrol companies act in concert or anything....Lol....

[pierre]

I'm certainly not suggesting that our petrol companies act in concert or anything....Lol....

Your quote should be sent to Tui immediately!

[Crackity]

"Those service stations set their own prices anyway, so there'll still be an element of price competition.

"The concern that we have though is that as a wholesaler, Z will actually be supplying nearly 50 per cent of the retail market."

However, while BP remained in the fuel market, Z would have a large competitor to keep them in check, Stockdale said.



Insight from the NZ Herald and also the funniest thing I've heard all day.....

[vin]

Are we expecting a big dump from profit takers? Half expecting it to drop right back to $5.50

[stoploss]

"Those service stations set their own prices anyway, so there'll still be an element of price competition.

"The concern that we have though is that as a wholesaler, Z will actually be supplying nearly 50 per cent of the retail market."

However, while BP remained in the fuel market, Z would have a large competitor to keep them in check, Stockdale said.

Insight from the NZ Herald and also the funniest thing I've heard all day.....

The Caltex self service on Hutt Rd, Wellington , generally has diesel 25/30 cents under all the other retailers in Wellington . ( Usually in line with places like Levin where Gull is retailing ) Can't see this continuing ......

[Joshuatree]

Sold re a sixth today. Anyone with any updated research on ZEL; be great to see?. Nothing at Craigs yet.

[Grimy]

I sold at $4.95 a few weeks back. Obviously still need to fine-tune my exit strategy..........

[Joshuatree]

Just bad luck.No one expected you to have inside info Grimy; no leakage if one looks at the chart the days before. One strategy is to average out over a time period , say in 4 trades; that would have helped in this case, i did that with RYM quite awhile back.. I fluked getting into NZR; the placement @ $2.32 turned up as i was about to pay $2.50 plus.Luck.