ACY Acurity Health Group Limited

[baller18]

Has anyone been following this stock at all?

They provide and and develop centres for the health sector and own 35 private hospitals around new zeala.d
Are they more a real estate kind of company rather than an healthcare product company like EBO?

[percy]

Hi baller18,
There was a thread "WFD Wakefield Hospital" which was before they changed their name.I have never owned them,but I am mindfull that Mark Stewart sold out of Ebos to increase his holding in what is now ACY.Mark Stewart has a record of being a very astute investor.He is a very clever businessman and adds a lot of imput to any board he is on.
I have just looked up Yahoo charts,and see ACY is/has been in a down trend for a year.I would wait for the trend to reverse before buying any.

[baller18]

Thanks heaps percy

[noodles]

A positive earnings forecast today...
"The underlying net profit after tax which excludes this revaluation is projected to be in the range of $3.3 million to $3.5 million, an increase on prior year equivalent earnings of 17% to 23%"

If we annualise the NPAT to $6.8 mil, we end up with eps = .39c. This puts ACY on a pe of 10 at a close price of 4.02.

Additionally, they are trading at a massive discount to NTA ($5.33).

Hopefully this earnings release will be a permanent turnaround in EPS growth after a couple of disappointing years. If so, we could see a nice re-rating closer to ASX listed private healthcare stocks. RHC.AX currently sits on a pe of 28.

DISC: HOLD

[whatsup]

Hi baller18,
There was a thread "WFD Wakefield Hospital" which was before they changed their name.I have never owned them,but I am mindfull that Mark Stewart sold out of Ebos to increase his holding in what is now ACY.Mark Stewart has a record of being a very astute investor.He is a very clever businessman and adds a lot of imput to any board he is on.
I have just looked up Yahoo charts,and see ACY is/has been in a down trend for a year.I would wait for the trend to reverse before buying any.

Percy the down tread continues now and after 5 years , when will there be a reversal?

[percy]

Percy the down tread continues now and after 5 years , when will there be a reversal?

Not any time soon that I can see.
Can not undertand the shareholder notices concerning The Stewart Family Trusts.

[percy]

Stripping out costs is good, but continued revenue declines, no way. I'd say good for a short-term play on good news, but if they can't continue to accumulate revenue, we all know where it's going!

Pretty much sums up how I see it too,
Yet?? Mark Stewart has a habit of turning an out of favour company into a winning company.

[percy]

Wouldn't be buying until the story turns for the better. Buy into the uptrend; try not to catch the falling knife (even worse with an illiquid stock!)

Sage advice.!!

[noodles]

Stripping out costs is good, but continued revenue declines, no way. I'd say good for a short-term play on good news, but if they can't continue to accumulate revenue, we all know where it's going!

Definitely true that short term pressure is causing a small drop in revenue. However, the company is confident that the long term demand is strong ... from AGM "that the Group continues to be a significant player in the private hospital market and this will increase as the public system
struggles to meet the requirements of our aging population"

[Nigel]

Can someone explain the massive rise this morning?

[Nigel]

I have it on my watchlist, was waiting for the down trend to turn the corner... then WHAM... someone buys 500,000 shares at a 35% premium to current shareprice. What's up with that?!

[apac]

There's a lot of hype in the NZ sharemarket at the moment, anyone brave enough to join in? absolutely no idea what the company does

[noodles]

Maybe I should buy at $5.15 and set the market on fire...

moosie, yes you should have set it at 5.15.

When I saw a first trade at 5.50 today, I thought there was a NZX error:)

I am speculating that ACY will not be listed within a year. I have no inside knowledge, but this stand on the market indicates someone wants a strategic stake (and in quick time).

Still HOLDing. Thank god I ignored my uptrend rule.

[noodles]

And now we know who...
http://www.sharechat.co.nz/article/b18c56e7/australia-s-evolution-healthcare-pays-premium-to-buy-stake-in-rival-acurity-health.html

[psychic]

And now we know why?
Acurity Health Group Limited today reported net profit after tax of $4.06 million for the six months ended 30 September 2013 (70.5% up on the previous year’s result of S2.38 million).

[noodles]

I knew the FY14 announcement was this morning, so last night I reviewed the expected outcome.


From the 25-2-14 announcement, I was expecting the following:
-Underlying earnings $6.3 million to $6.9 million
-Revenue "slightly down on the previous year"


Today's annoucement is significantly better:
-Underlying earnings $7.18 million
-revenue is up 1.5%


So this is quite a turnaround in just 3 months. Management have commented on current market conditions:
" After a period of tough market conditions there are signs of increased private demand and activity emerging."


So the stock is currently sitting on an undemanding pe of 12.9 and has just started a recovery in earnings.

[BlackPeter]

I knew the FY14 announcement was this morning, so last night I reviewed the expected outcome.


From the 25-2-14 announcement, I was expecting the following:
-Underlying earnings $6.3 million to $6.9 million
-Revenue "slightly down on the previous year"


Today's annoucement is significantly better:
-Underlying earnings $7.18 million
-revenue is up 1.5%


So this is quite a turnaround in just 3 months. Management have commented on current market conditions:
" After a period of tough market conditions there are signs of increased private demand and activity emerging."


So the stock is currently sitting on an undemanding pe of 12.9 and has just started a recovery in earnings.

All good - even considering that some of the profit increase is due to one-offs. And if we take into account that a significant part of Acurities customers are basically the same group of population which is served by RYM, SUM and MET (i.e. better off baby boomers), than it can only go upwards from here.:t_up:

Discl: happy holder

[noodles]

All good - even considering that some of the profit increase is due to one-offs. And if we take into account that a significant part of Acurities customers are basically the same group of population which is served by RYM, SUM and MET (i.e. better off baby boomers), than it can only go upwards from here.:t_up:
Nice to know someone read my post:)
Totally agree about the baby boomers.
The NPAT figure I quotes are underlying and do not include the one-off gains.

[BlackPeter]

Nice to know someone read my post:)
Totally agree about the baby boomers.
The NPAT figure I quotes are underlying and do not include the one-off gains.

true - my bad; looks like I didn't read it often enough before commenting;)

[noodles]

Clearly a softly spoken CEO that doesn't like the camera too much. He does appear to be turning earnings around.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=LCfYAmerhH0&index=6&list=PL5yfunAcL8mBKtSyGL7-z3BJYEXSYo1HH

[BlackPeter]

Clearly a softly spoken CEO that doesn't like the camera too much. He does appear to be turning earnings around.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=LCfYAmerhH0&index=6&list=PL5yfunAcL8mBKtSyGL7-z3BJYEXSYo1HH

Amazing - a $6.50 take over offer, the share price jumps by more than 25% - and nobody on sharetrader seems to notice? Just the ongoing discussion on PEB, SUM and politics ...

In my books ACY was a reasonable deal at 5.25, but at $6.58 (current SP) it appears to be seriously overpriced ... however, who knows, how keen Connor Healthcare is in buying it ...?

Given that we have already a 51% share holder (who got the shares for $6.00 and now seems to be happy to sell), $6.50 appears to be a sensible take over offer. But than - Mr. Market might not agree (see current SP). Thoughts?

[percy]

I would watch and follow whatever Mark Stewart did if I was a shareholder.
Then again Noodles may be the man to follow.Having a big profit day with his TUA and DPC as well !!!!!!!!!!

[winner69]

moosie, yes you should have set it at 5.15.

When I saw a first trade at 5.50 today, I thought there was a NZX error:)

I am speculating that ACY will not be listed within a year. I have no inside knowledge, but this stand on the market indicates someone wants a strategic stake (and in quick time).

Still HOLDing. Thank god I ignored my uptrend rule.

Good post a year ago mate

[noodles]

I would watch and follow whatever Mark Stewart did if I was a shareholder.
Then again Noodles may be the man to follow.Having a big profit day with his TUA and DPC as well !!!!!!!!!!
I sold to Mark Stewart today:)