Gold Juniors

[Daytr]

Hi All, thought a thread on gold juniors might be of interest, either near term producers or small producers you may think will become bigger & better. I have a background in trading gold professionally & also advising Aussie miners on commodity markets & price risk.
I now invest in these sort of companies for myself & as a fund manager for others.

To kick off a couple of my favorites are MYG, PXG which I both hold & NST which I have just sold out of (taking profit).

Be good to get other's thoughts.

Cheers Daytr

[STRAT]

Hi Daytr.

What are your thoughts on GOR?

After a long down trend it popped up yesterday as a possible buy from a technical perspective. On the rise again today.

[JBmurc]

Yeah PXG been one of the better Explorer's that has some small production ...my fav explorer (don't hold currently)

PGI-Producer-Gold/silver because I've seen so many start up producer's hit the wall using the old tech and having issues with their ore and cost of digging it out of the ground /underground etc enviro issues .. ..

..PGI new tech has the ability to recover through re-treatment of a old tailing's dam .....Low cost high profits will be huge going forward I could see PGI having operation's all-round the world using the tech the've fine tuned to recover much more gold than old methods ....

PanTerra Gold utilises Xstrata Technology's patented Albion oxidation process which renders inert and non-soluble, toxic sulphur and arsenic contained in the refractory ore, thereby eliminating the threat of acid mine drainage, and providing a net benefit to the environment.


http://www.panterragold.com/site/

[yabster]

I hold PXG and MYG- suffered like the rest- if PXG can prove up 4 m ounces it should be on its way, MYG still has funding issues but hopefully are being sorted. I like PGI, its producing so cashflow and its low cost around $400 an ounce - same with CDG. (Don't hold those).

[Daytr]

Hi Strat, yep I do like GOR, but there's something about them that just doesn't grab me as much as others & I'm not sure why to be honest. Perhaps they just need to get better at promoting themselves. I like the fact they cut the board to reduce costs that shows they are disciplined. The high grade deposits are on the small side but then they have the 1M ounce plus of low grade. At least they have plenty of cash to keep them going for a while. When are they taking it to bank feasibility? Do they need to find more before they do?

[Joshuatree]

PGI PGI and PGI (l0west cost)followed by
BDR (with iron ore credits),DRM and bigger MML NST KCN

avoid RED which im losing on.

[Daytr]

PGI are low cost because they aren't mining, its a tailings project. At $70M MC I think they are reasonably well priced however we are talking around $300M of free cashflow but that's over a few years. The upside really will come from exploration, always does.

[JBmurc]

Whats Your view on PGI Daytr?

main issues I think the Market see's is in country risk and reserves ....

with round 6 more years of reserves to be process at Las Lagunas... PGI long term driver could well be the results from the drilling program in the Dominican Republic... with very high grade Cu.Au.Ag in grab samples I'm looking forward to the drill program to start ....also of course another large Tailings deposit would also work esp in another country would diverse the risk ....must be Moz of gold tailings round the world

[Dej]

Take a look at NTL. starting mining 2H next year with big grades in the old talisman mine. C1 and C3 costs are $550 and $900 NZD respectively. very undervalued stock, dual listed. new directors seem to have tgeur heads screwed on well. also fully own another exploration company and a stake in Broken Hill Mining (ASX listed).

Was just about to chuck this down! Beat me too it...

It is am illiquid penny stock though, but has had greater volume recently.

[Daytr]

I would be interested to understand what you see in NTL? Very low market cap but doesn't really seem to be that much going on. I must admit I'm not a big fan of mining in NZ generally. Too much political risk & too environmentally sensitive, especially when compared with Australia.

[Daytr]

Well I think they are really a gold price play more than most as they have the gold already mined. Shame they had to hedge 1/3rd at $1320 as I think gold will be a lot higher. They definitely have upside imo, but I don't think as much as some others who are spending all their money on exploration.


Whats Your view on PGI Daytr?

main issues I think the Market see's is in country risk and reserves ....

with round 6 more years of reserves to be process at Las Lagunas... PGI long term driver could well be the results from the drilling program in the Dominican Republic... with very high grade Cu.Au.Ag in grab samples I'm looking forward to the drill program to start ....also of course another large Tailings deposit would also work esp in another country would diverse the risk ....must be Moz of gold tailings round the world

[JBmurc]

Well I think they are really a gold price play more than most as they have the gold already mined. Shame they had to hedge 1/3rd at $1320 as I think gold will be a lot higher. They definitely have upside imo, but I don't think as much as some others who are spending all their money on exploration.

Yes others like PXG may have more upside percent wise but more start-up risks lower grades etc then you also have the fact many miners are finding Aussie a very high cost place to do business ...

-I brought into CVR because of thought a producer with 1.2moz resource with a market value not much more than plant cost soon to be producer with lower cost structure unhedged,exploration upside.. was a great high growth play (hindsight wish I just brought more PGI)

After CVR rubbish I now rate mgmt. much higher up the list for importance when it comes to these higher risk jnrs ....in PGI case they have "Brain Johnson" in control.... his past history includes taking Nevada Goldfields Limited, Austral Coal Limited, and both Portman Mining Limited and Mount Gibson Iron Limited from conceptual stage to Profitable miners ....

Also on the production PGI plan is for 63koz Gold p.a hedged fully first year then second-third year half hedged (if Gold is much higher that hedge price) and some 600koz Silver p.a is Unhedged ....I also think PM prices will be much higher years ahead....Overall I'm happy with hedge set-up as I know they wouldn't have got the plant loan without it...and really as long as they can keep the costs to plan are going make a enough to drill many holes or buy more tailings within a short time frame I could see PGI reserves doubling..

The Albion Plant cost PGI some 100mill so find the 70mill value still much too light at this stage now that they have announced Recoveries of gold from both the flotation circuits and the CIL circuit are within 7% of target and trending upward. Recoveries of silver from the flotation circuit are within 4% of target and exceeding target from the CIL circuit....

Brought more PGI today

[Joshuatree]

Yes with PGI being the First Mover Globally in using the Albion Process for Gold i think there will be a lot of int once PGI are producing at nameplate and alot of opps Globally and maybe even close enough to the current plant as well.. The first mover Advantage will finally show itself and most of the arrows (teething probs) have now been pulled out of the back of this (PGI) pioneer.

[Dej]

I would be interested to understand what you see in NTL? Very low market cap but doesn't really seem to be that much going on. I must admit I'm not a big fan of mining in NZ generally. Too much political risk & too environmentally sensitive, especially when compared with Australia.

Its still in its very early stages, so for me its an opportunity to be in a mine from the beginning. Good thing with this mine is that a majority of the tunneling is already existing, so there (theoretically) shouldn't be any political worries due to environment concerns.

You say not much is going on, but in the last announcement they were talking about procuring machinery and such. For a small company that is quite fast, but I get your point. Always has to be kept in context that, like you said, its a tiny company.

[Daytr]

Good points JBmurc re risk / reward its almost like a royalty stream. Thanks for those contributing it certainly helps me look at different angles etc I picked up some GOR yesterday with the price dip in gold & I now like the spread I have in juniors.

[Daytr]

Good to see PXG & GOR have a nice run today, seem to be gathering momentum :)

[Daytr]

Nice little announcement from MYG on their iron ore resource. With very little capex this could be a nice little earner for them while they look to finance their copper/gold deposit Deflector.

[Joshuatree]

forgot to mention CAS Crusader (i hold)
126 mill shares
mkt cap $27 million !!!!
Directors hold 15%
Reserve of 1.61 mill oz (1.18g/t)Gold . Total resource 2.43 mill oz @ 1.10g/t.
80,000 m drilled + Completed PFS Final feasibility in progress
Excellent infrastruture
Low cost low govt royalties @1%.
4500 sq km exploration area 100% owned
PLUS
Iron Ore now producing @ nameplate
Jorc ind 36 M/T @ 43.5% /FE
plus Lump high grade hematite > 64% /Fe
Licenced for 300,000 tones per annum
Awaiting for full mining license, pending.

Iron Ore buyers close by (smelters etc) with sales contracted to them, multiple sales contracts in place.

stripping ratio intial 0.15:1 moving to 0.21:1

[STRAT]

Hi Strat, Do they need to find more before they do?
Sorry. Cant answer that question.
All my buys and sells are based on TA only.

[Daytr]

Thanks Joshuatree, its one I hadn't come across. They do look interesting. I like that Macquarie is backing them as well as they don't normally back mugs at an early stage.

[macduffy]

Not exactly all juniors but here's a view on possible takeover candidates in the sector.

http://www.thebull.com.au/premium/a/40177-takeover-targets---7-gold-miners-under-watch.html

[STRAT]

GOR bolting out of the gate this morning :)

[Daytr]

Looks like a trading halt in GOR. Bids are above offer.


GOR bolting out of the gate this morning :)

[Daytr]

I bot into CAS today, hopefully it regain some of its lustre. Has hardly moved compared to others, but seems like a pretty good story all the same.

Thanks Joshuatree, its one I hadn't come across. They do look interesting. I like that Macquarie is backing them as well as they don't normally back mugs at an early stage.

[Daytr]

Funny old day, gold higher yet most of my gold stocks are off a little. Must be some profit taking going on me thinks. I used the opportunity to sell some yesterday & bot back in today so the pattern suits me fine as long as we see the juniors rebound. Very mindful of the Syrian situation as its starting to put a premium into gold that wont be permanent.

[JBmurc]

Funny old day, gold higher yet most of my gold stocks are off a little. Must be some profit taking going on me thinks. I used the opportunity to sell some yesterday & bot back in today so the pattern suits me fine as long as we see the juniors rebound. Very mindful of the Syrian situation as its starting to put a premium into gold that wont be permanent.

I Heard on the Radio the US is stating they will strike within the next 48hrs

[Daytr]

Glad I took some money off the table late last week. Now looking for opportunities to reinvest. Sold out of GOR at 10.5c after picking up at 6.7c & then bought back in in the low 9s & sold out again at 10.5c. Looking to get back in again now, but need it to pullback. Its a great trading stock, but will definitely at some stage buy & hold this one.

[Daytr]

Back in GOR! Love this stock, good liquidity & it moves around with a great fundamental story!

[JBmurc]

Glad I took some money off the table late last week. Now looking for opportunities to reinvest. Sold out of GOR at 10.5c after picking up at 6.7c & then bought back in in the low 9s & sold out again at 10.5c. Looking to get back in again now, but need it to pullback. Its a great trading stock, but will definitely at some stage buy & hold this one.

Great work Daytr got greedy with my PGI trade brought a heap more @ 7.5c sold very few @ 9.8c(order wasn't filled) should have sold the lot anything above 9c now trading at 8c arrgg back at my average buy level

[Daytr]

I think gold is set to go for another run above $1400 this week so should see gold stocks back on the boil. Obviously what unfolds in regards Syria will be the driver. Good luck! Off to the NZ High School basketball champs to coach my local school team, so be out of action for most of the week, but will try & clock in from time to time.


Great work Daytr got greedy with my PGI trade brought a heap more @ 7.5c sold very few @ 9.8c(order wasn't filled) should have sold the lot anything above 9c now trading at 8c arrgg back at my average buy level

[Daytr]

I've been in & out of GOR since I last posted but am holding 50% of my position. Looks like CAS is attempting to get off the canvas so could be interesting to watch. Surprised gold isn't lower considering Obama's platform for war is losing support globally. Think we still may have another look below $1380, possibly tonight, but think $1350 should hold. I've again got some funds on the side line in anticipation of this. Be interested in anyone else's thoughts...

[Daytr]

Liquidated the remaining 25% of my portfolio this morning. Made around 105% gain over the last 3 months so can't argue with that & now happy to be on the sidelines. Think $1350 will break, but $1320 we may see better support so will assess that if we get there if its time to buy back in. Patience is key here I think.

[JBmurc]

Liquidated the remaining 25% of my portfolio this morning. Made around 105% gain over the last 3 months so can't argue with that & now happy to be on the sidelines. Think $1350 will break, but $1320 we may see better support so will assess that if we get there if its time to buy back in. Patience is key here I think.

Good work I know many think Syria is the only reason why gold moved passed 1400 but IMHO thats just one small piece of the gold bull pie with a more important is the U.S. debt ceiling being reached yet again & The current "continuing resolution" which is basically a band-aid patched over a budget hole will expire on Sept. 30.....the US will have to do something very soon or will no be able to pay it's bills in November >>>>>they may taper 10-15billion off the 80billion Q.E per month but still the DEBT gets bigger without a fix in sight

[Bobcat.]

JB,
Politiking aside, I believe it's unlikely the Obama Admin or Feds will stop printing money or even slow it down much (i.e. taper) - that's because it's more addictive to a politician facing mounting debt than cocaine. They may disguise it to save face, and play down the risk to inflation by manipulating its composite factors but these people want to be re-elected (to satisfy their lust for power) and popular (to satisfy their Narcisistic streak)...and will get there by hook or by crook.

Once the huge downside to continually printing money to meet Federal obligations (to Medicare, State Govts, etc) becomes clear, and offshore creditors lose confidence in the USD and American economy as the Govt defaults on its loans, then watch the slope get steeper, more slippery and treacherous for a) the good ol' US of A and b) connected economies (and just which aren't?).

After selling KCN last week, I've been buying back into those gold stocks this morning that have some decent cash reserves - FML, PNA and GRY.

Like yourself, I too believe that the world economy has a painful experience ahead of it next month, probably triggered by the USA Debt crisis but that's not the only factor. Traditionally, Sept/Oct is ruled by Bears due to triple witching, etc - check out the past 10 years of charts for the DJIA, NASDAQ and S&P500. Where these indexes fall, the price of Gold invariably rises.

I have recently acquired a few Uranium stocks (ERA and PDN, etc) and into one or two other Aussie miners including a couple of oiulers (WHN, JPR, etc) but otherwise selling out of bluechip and most of my other stock holdings as their prices lift like earlier today, so that I can be cash-rich for opportunities through October.

Cheers,

BC

[JBmurc]

Yeah I agree BC ...esp if Obama and mates can get another major War going in the M.E they'll need to increase and not decrease the Q.E
think this month and next will be major ones of the year >>>Gold could well do the dead opposite to what many think during this time
I did sell a few PGI today for a small profit ....and got my CFE swing trade though for the month worth another $900 profit >>>small cash pile ....happy to sit on PGI till end of year or mid teens SP

[JBmurc]

Just brought into my third Gold jnr today RMS not sure how long I'll hold will take 20-30% profit if it turns up in the Short term..
some imfo on RMS

Market current value round 60mill @18c
Cash/gold held = 33mill (aug)
resource/reserves =2.5moz /500koz
2013/14 planned production & cost = 107koz @ 1200oz AUD(total costs to produce the gold) =26.7mill AUD EBIT
RMS own two gold plants worth $$$m ? 1#1.7mtpa processing plant readily expandable to 2.4mtpa
2# plant conventional CIL circuit The mill has a capacity to treat up to 180,000 tonnes of material per annum.
good Exploration upside on new high grade Vivien project as well as 4 other major project areas

Overall RMS has been a market Dog falling from a once $1+ sp with high costs poor mgmt,,lower AUD gold personal like buying at current levels on turn-round story....plan to buy more on PGI sell-down

[Bobcat.]

Reuters have RMS with an NTA of 45c, which if correct is attractive.
Mt Magnet increased its revenues which is positive but RMS's net loss increased to $51m off revenue of $136m and with an actual production cost of $1,870 against a budget of $1,200 profits are some way off.
Even with good cash reserves an 'entitlements' issue of 1:4 at 18c is required to fund their Vivian project.
Trading today at 18c. I might just put in a cheeky bid to pick up a bundle at 17.5c but it will be for just a small bundle. GRY and FML are in my opinion a better buy.

Cheers,
BC

[JBmurc]

Reuters have RMS with an NTA of 45c, which if correct is attractive.
Mt Magnet increased its revenues which is positive but RMS's net loss increased to $51m off revenue of $136m and with an actual production cost of $1,870 against a budget of $1,200 profits are some way off.
Even with good cash reserves an 'entitlements' issue of 1:4 at 18c is required to fund their Vivian project.
Trading today at 18c. I might just put in a cheeky bid to pick up a bundle at 17.5c but it will be for just a small bundle. GRY and FML are in my opinion a better buy.

Cheers,
BC


Yes for sure RMS past has shown issues in costs ...you nay well get your cheeky bid >>looks like I jumped bit early today still only a small parcel at this stage ...enjoying my other PM share PGI rise today

[Daytr]

I have met with RMS on several occasions & wasn't at all impressed with their senior management. They did a lot better with Mt Magnet than I would have thought by not revisiting the underground which is an incredibly challenging mine to run as Harmony found out & had to bring the legend Peter Cook ex Hill 50 to the fold to get the operation sorted. Haven't met the ground staff & the MD/Chair is a smart cookie although doesn't see the big picture in my book and has a small town (Adelaide) syndrome. The finance guy I wouldn't give time of day.

[JBmurc]

I have met with RMS on several occasions & wasn't at all impressed with their senior management. They did a lot better with Mt Magnet than I would have thought by not revisiting the underground which is an incredibly challenging mine to run as Harmony found out & had to bring the legend Peter Cook ex Hill 50 to the fold to get the operation sorted. Haven't met the ground staff & the MD/Chair is a smart cookie although doesn't see the big picture in my book and has a small town (Adelaide) syndrome. The finance guy I wouldn't give time of day.


So you wouldn't touch RMS I take it DT ?

Any view on new Vivien project there buying

[Joshuatree]

I havnt looked hard but don't like the high costs of extraction.

[Daytr]

No I wouldn't even if they do deliver etc. If I don't like the management I don't go near a stock. I've met them on several occasions & each time was very unimpressed. In saying that they have done some good things & Bob (major shareholder/Chairman) is certainly no mug. I am probably tained by the finance guy who has no idea about mining or for that matter how to transact with banks. He is a bean counter through & through & if he was just doing the financial reporting I wouldn't be too concerned but he handles all matters financial, perhaps not making the final decision but making the recommendations on very little understanding of financial products or mining.

[JBmurc]

No I wouldn't even if they do deliver etc. If I don't like the management I don't go near a stock. I've met them on several occasions & each time was very unimpressed. In saying that they have done some good things & Bob (major shareholder/Chairman) is certainly no mug. I am probably tained by the finance guy who has no idea about mining or for that matter how to transact with banks. He is a bean counter through & through & if he was just doing the financial reporting I wouldn't be too concerned but he handles all matters financial, perhaps not making the final decision but making the recommendations on very little understanding of financial products or mining.

yeah fair enough ...might be just a swing trade ...didn't buy all that much

Sold another parcel of my PGI holding prob buy them back lower tomorrow going from the gold movement downwards

[Bobcat.]

Pulled my RMS bid earlier this morning (not a quality stock) but I've left in a cheeky bid on GRY at 15c.

Happy to have picked up a bundle of KCN at 170 (after selling out last week) and will hold these with a stop loss at 160. Back in at its strong support level of 150 if the sp drops that far by Wednesday's FOMC, but somehow I doubt it will.

Other people's problems can be our opportunities if we get the timing right, yes?

BC

[JBmurc]

Yes RMS good smash on open was going jump in the front of sellers but put order last minute would have sold 17c instead going throw in the offer at 17.5c take the loss on the nose ...glad my bigger sell orders of PGI were filled 8.4c buying back 8c should get my fill today>>>
I see Gold has turned this morning up $9 since I first checked >>>

[Daytr]

Just bought into EVN, its been smashed 10% today so saw it as an opportunity. They have a hedge in place for 150k toz at A$1600ish so have some protection if the POG falls further also have always respected Jake Klein, very smart guy & corporately savy.

[Bobcat.]

Just bought into EVN, its been smashed 10% today so saw it as an opportunity. They have a hedge in place for 150k toz at A$1600ish so have some protection if the POG falls further also have always respected Jake Klein, very smart guy & corporately savy.

Having a brief look at this, I can see why you like it.

From their latest update:
"Production is set to increase in FY14 following completion of commissioning at the new Mt Carlton gold-silver copper mine. FY14 forecast production is 400,000 – 450,000 ounces gold equivalent with cash operating costs expected to be in the range of A$770 – A$820 per ounce. At an AUD:USD exchange rate of 0.9250 this equates to globally competitive cash costs of US$710/oz to US$760/oz. The additional costs of royalties, deferred open pit stripping, rehabilitation, sustaining capital and corporate overheads add approximately A$310/oz providing for Group All-in Sustaining Costs of A$1,080/oz to A$1,130/oz (US$1,000/oz to US$1,045/oz)."

These operating costs per oz are very competitive (compared for example with RMS at over $1600/oz!)

Also:
Underlying EBITDA increased by 11% to A$211.7 million
Underlying net profit of A$44.4 million and reported net loss of A$307.4 million after non-cash asset and investment impairments of A$384.3 million (A$351.9 million after tax)
Capital expenditure of A$374.7 million including A$168.4 million invested at Mt Carlton, the Company’s newest mine
Low gearing of 13% and good liquidity maintained with cash and available credit of A$86.9 million at 30 June 2013.

After investigating a bit further, I might just get a bundle too. Thanks for the tip, Daytr.

CW

[Daytr]

No probs, that's what this thread is about! :)

[Bobcat.]

My bid just got hit at 80.5 and then some bigger buyers arrived. I like it when a plan comes together. Now all we need is for Gold to hold above USD1320 for the next few days (and of course that's nowhere near certain).

Cheers,

BC

[Daytr]

We both could have been a little more patient, however still think anywhere around 80c will prove to be a good buy in pretty quick time. Just my opinion.
Goodluck Bobcat!

[JBmurc]

My bid just got hit at 80.5 and then some bigger buyers arrived. I like it when a plan comes together. Now all we need is for Gold to hold above USD1320 for the next few days (and of course that's nowhere near certain).

Cheers,

BC

the way the gold price is going you might get them even cheaper come monday >>>>bit the bullet and took a 10% loss on RMS will most likely put the funds into CFE or OXX ....still waiting on my PGI 8c fill pretty gappy on the close offers 8.5c could well make back my RMS losses monday

[Bobcat.]

Buying into Gold stocks last Friday looks to be a good move...for three reasons:

1. Where there's fear, there's opportunity for the contrarian traders amongst us;
2. Summers has withdrawn from the race for the Fed Chairman role
3. POG has rebounded to hold above 1330USD (although the USD decline over the weekend accounts for some of this movement).

I'm predicting > 5% rise in the price of most quality ASX gold stocks today, and depending on Wednesday's meeting (6am Thurs morning NZST), their sp could easily lift much higher. Last Friday was a good time to buy. What's equally important of course is knowing when to sell.

BC

[Daytr]

Moosie, Hindsight is a great thing & with Yellen now likely Fed chair could see gold turn around. Think tonight's performance for gold should tell us, could be wrong but think we may see gold reverse here. I just picked up some KCN. Broke one of my investment rules here as I don't like the management, but it does look very under valued & also has massive leverage to the gold price as have large reserves & resources.


I am of the opinion that last Friday was an absolutely terrible time to buy! if you did you missed the 20%+ rally and bought on a downward pointing chart (all indicators down) with inflation/fear premium still on before the FOMC meeting which could absolutely demolish the gold price! risk vs reward does not stack up at all and the smart move is to buy once the FOMC minutes are out. I hope for your sake BC you aren't in too deep...

[Bobcat.]

My offer at 179.5c on KCN just got hit. Last Friday's purchase at 170c worked OK for me. A 5.5% gain in less than 3 hours of market time is not something I'm complaining about. FML, GRY and EVN are better quality stocks and so I have offers on them set quite a bit higher than current sp, which of course will take longer to fill.

KCN had a lot of upward momentum before its result earlier this month brought it spiralling down, but I figured not all those previous buyers had lost interest -- today's bounce-back was not surprising. By getting the timing right, a dead-cat bounce can produce faster profits than a long-term hold on a higher quality stock.

BC

[Daytr]

Yep Bobcat, certainly not enamoured with the company & its recent performance, just think with a MC of A$260M being a 200k toz producer & they seemed to have faced the music in regards writedowns & looking at cost reductions also the SP has been smacked almost back to the lows. Its a bit of a punt & out of my normal investment criteria, but the value is there as long as there is some improvement in performance & they have a bigger exposure to POG than most with large reserve & resource base.

[Bobcat.]

I'm now taking a look at SBM (St Barbara) and AQG (Alacer) both larger - second and third in size behind Newcrest.

Daytr - What if anything have you ascertained about these two? I'll give you my opinion shortly. Meanwhile I continue to hold GRY, FML and EVN.

BC

[Bobcat.]

SBM:

3 assets - Leonora (WA) and 2 open pit mines at Simberi and Gold Ridge (both in PNG)
365koz (FY13) with 395-445koz forecasted for FY14.
Cash $129m with $328m interest bearing debt (25% gearing)
5.2Moz reserves and 13.2Moz resources
Recently issued $US250m senior secured notes (5-year @8.9%)
Injury free mining record in FY13
$141m EBITDA (down 25% on FY12)
$29m NPAT (down 70% on FY12)
Consolidated cash operating costs of ~$A920/oz

Others' thoughts or additional information?

[Bobcat.]

AQG:

2 assets - Copler (Turkey) and ABU (Australian asset for sale)
Mainly operates in Turkey (owns 80% of Copler Gold mine east of Ankara) ~200koz per annum
8.5Moz resources
$A260m working capital (cash) plus $5.4m bank loan
$25m adjusted net profit (8c eps)
Cash operating costs of USD400/oz (=~$A440/oz)
All-in (consolidated) costs of ~ $840/oz (=~$A900/oz)

Others' thoughts or additional information?

[JBmurc]

AQG:

2 assets - Copler (Turkey) and ABU (Australian asset for sale)
Mainly operates in Turkey (owns 80% of Copler Gold mine east of Ankara) ~200koz per annum
8.5Moz resources
$A260m working capital (cash) plus $5.4m bank loan
$25m adjusted net profit (8c eps)
Cash operating costs of USD400/oz (=~$A440/oz)
All-in (consolidated) costs of ~ $840/oz (=~$A900/oz)

Others' thoughts or additional information?

Hard to believe the market values at only 307mill ?? seems to cheap with that much cash in the bank >>>

disc-brought some more PGI sellers looking weak will run any day now 10-11c ST target to sell a few

[Bobcat.]

Resolute Mining (RSG):

Operates in Syama (Mali), Ravenswood (Q'Land) and Golden Pride (Tanzania)
436koz per annum
$A85m NPAT (down 20% on FY12) with an EPS of 13.2 (16.1 for FY12)
Positive cashflow of $A154m
Cash costs of $A811/oz and all-in (consolidated) costs of $A1375/oz)
Conservative balance sheet (no divi)

Others' thoughts or additional information?

[JBmurc]

My thoughts Bobcat is the PM sector is well oversold .....and I'm sure you could easy add another doz gold producers that are very cheap on pure historic basis of profit margin +reserves/resources in place +PM prices

[Daytr]

AQG does sound undervalued whilst not having researched, will have to take a further look. There will be a discount for country risk, although Turkey as long as not near Mid/East boarder is pretty stable. RSG is a bit like KCN, management has underperformed although RSG has generally improved their performance in the last year or two, haven't done much reading on them lately. The CFO Greg Fitzgerald is a hell of a nice guy, but overall their performance has been pretty lackluster imo. but will refresh my research on them & revert.

[Bobcat.]

Here's an interesting article on Indian and Chinese gold buying, and its seasonal patterns.

http://www.kitco.com/ind/Holmes/2013-09-10-Will-Gold-Follow-Its-Seasonal-Pattern-This-Year.html

Note the habitual purchasing of gold in September ahead of October gifts for harvests and weddings.

I don't think I can sit on my hands much longer. Anytime tomorrow or Wednesday (i.e. ahead of the FOMC) when the POG dips dramatically (i.e. as big sellers complete their current orders), I'm turning bullish and will buy up large.

[Bobcat.]

AQG does sound undervalued whilst not having researched, will have to take a further look. There will be a discount for country risk, although Turkey as long as not near Mid/East boarder is pretty stable. RSG is a bit like KCN, management has underperformed although RSG has generally improved their performance in the last year or two, haven't done much reading on them lately. The CFO Greg Fitzgerald is a hell of a nice guy, but overall their performance has been pretty lackluster imo. but will refresh my research on them & revert.

Daytr - RSG has a much higher All-in cost of $A1375/oz (c.f. others listed above which operate at under $1000/oz - AQG, SBM, etc).

AQG is trying to sell out of Australia and put all its eggs into one Turkish basket (but is otherwise attractive with a very low operating cost). My pick of the three is probably SBM, which if I time it right could climb up easily and quickly from its current 59-62c range. I'll be watching it closely tomorrow.

Disc: Current holdings in FML, GRY, EVN, OZL, PDN, PNA, WHN, GBG, ERA, JPR and CFE.

[Bobcat.]

Here's a low cost gold and silver producer with a Reuters BUY recommendation:

TRY - Troy Resources:

Four Gold Mines - Sandstone (WA) plus three Sth American gold mines - Andorinhas, Brazil (to close in 2015); Sertao, Brazil; and Casposo, Argentina (also Silver) - plus this year acquired Azimuth Resources in Guyana (mining friendly, large 8000sq km land package, English speaking).
Producing 103koz of gold per annum
Has paid 13 cash divis over past 13 years
Builds mines quickly at low cost
NPAT of 18.6m (40% down from 31.6m in FY12)
$21m cash with $25m debt (Net debt/Equity of 16.2% c.f. 34% in 2012)
New $40m debt facility
Cash costs of ~$A700/oz (up from $A500/oz in 2012). All-in op costs not disclosed.

It's now on my watch list.

Other's thoughts/comments?
BC

[Bobcat.]

Here's two more attractive low cost gold producers :

Perseus (PRU):
West African gold producer
NPAT of $41m (EPS = 9c)
Op Cash flow of $47m
Debt free ($481m current assets against current liabilities of $447m)
All-in Op costs of $1,150USD (=$A1250)
Cost reduction programme includes Directors fees reducing 15%
(Rueters recommend a HOLD)

Teranga (TGZ):
200koz with All-in Op Costs of ~$1060/oz
FY13 sales increased 42% with revenue increasing 21%
NPAT of $7.2m (eps = 3c), down from $14m (6cps) in FY12
Hedge free
Recent amendment to $60m loan facility with McQuairie Bank
Cash of $53m (incl $9m of bullion receivables)
Op Cash flow of $21m (for 2Q13)
Definitive deal with Republic of Senegal recently signed

Comments?

[Corporate]

Hard to believe the market values at only 307mill ?? seems to cheap with that much cash in the bank >>>

disc-brought some more PGI sellers looking weak will run any day now 10-11c ST target to sell a few

I had to take a double look at this. Direct broking lists just over 100m shares on issue. Yet when I look at the Q2 presentation they company states 291m fully diluted.

I've only had 2 mins to have a look so I could be wrong but that makes it much less attractive!

[macduffy]

I had to take a double look at this. Direct broking lists just over 100m shares on issue. Yet when I look at the Q2 presentation they company states 291m fully diluted.

I've only had 2 mins to have a look so I could be wrong but that makes it much less attractive!

The presentation of the 2012 result shows 288.3m shares outstanding. The exercising of a few options could account for the difference between 291m and 288.3m.

http://www.alacergold.com/files/q4_and_fy_2012_conf_call_presentation_final.pdf

[Corporate]

The presentation of the 2012 result shows 288.3m shares outstanding. The exercising of a few options could account for the difference between 291m and 288.3m.

http://www.alacergold.com/files/q4_and_fy_2012_conf_call_presentation_final.pdf


Yes, but a previous post by JB mentioned the market valued the company at $307mil which is no where near the actual market cap by the looks of things. More like 3 times that.

[macduffy]

Agreed, Corporate.

For some reason, The Age, for one, shows 103m shares and $307m M.Cap. Someone has it wrong and I suspect it's The Age?

[Bobcat.]

Well, I've just picked up some TRY at 145.5. I'm satisfied after quite a bit of research that this low cost producer will return well enough on my investment.

SBM bid is close to being taken as well.

With the Rupee strengthening against most currencies now, I'm picking that Indian wedding and harvest gift buyers will begin purchasing more earnestly through the remainder of this month and early October. That's my theory and I'm sticking to it....at least for now.

Much is being made of this week's so-called 'tapering' which is an euphemism for not-quite-printing-as-much-extra-money per month as has been done over the past few months. So-called 'qualitative easening' #1 tapered to zero, likewise QE2 but this one is hardly being tapered at all. If the Feds stopped QE altogether they know that the stockmarket would crumble - and the US politicians and career bureaucrats prefer a slower death where the real substantial pain is inflicted upon their nation's children (i.e. after they are no longer in power). The national debt ceiling if lifted will push the US's debt/GDP ratio over the threshold used by the IMF in Europe to justify a bailout...and the rhetoric is meanwhile full of lies about a US recovery being just around the corner. Do the Math - it won't happen anytime soon. I'm buying Gold and Silver stocks accordingly. It's not a matter of 'if' their shareprices rise, but 'when' - I'm picking later this week. Already today it's bouncing up off a double bottom at 1310USD.

Don't miss the wave.

BC

[JBmurc]

Daytr - RSG has a much higher All-in cost of $A1375/oz (c.f. others listed above which operate at under $1000/oz - AQG, SBM, etc).

AQG is trying to sell out of Australia and put all its eggs into one Turkish basket (but is otherwise attractive with a very low operating cost). My pick of the three is probably SBM, which if I time it right could climb up easily and quickly from its current 59-62c range. I'll be watching it closely tomorrow.

Disc: Current holdings in FML, GRY, EVN, OZL, PDN, PNA, WHN, GBG, ERA, JPR and CFE.

Yeah also been buying CFE bobcat think we'll be happy later this year ....with the right anns should see 100-200% return by then

[JBmurc]

Daytr - RSG has a much higher All-in cost of $A1375/oz (c.f. others listed above which operate at under $1000/oz - AQG, SBM, etc).

AQG is trying to sell out of Australia and put all its eggs into one Turkish basket (but is otherwise attractive with a very low operating cost). My pick of the three is probably SBM, which if I time it right could climb up easily and quickly from its current 59-62c range. I'll be watching it closely tomorrow.

Disc: Current holdings in FML, GRY, EVN, OZL, PDN, PNA, WHN, GBG, ERA, JPR and CFE.

Yeah also been buying CFE bobcat think we'll be happy later this year ....with the right anns should see 100-200% return by then

[Daytr]

Sold out of my reasonable holding in KCN this morning on POG breaking $1300, booking a small loss. Kept my smaller EVN stake as they have a reasonable hedge in place at A$1598. So pretty much on the sidelines until POG settles. Good luck y'all

[Bobcat.]

Call me a gambler but I'm holding and buying more today confident that 1292 will hold. If that breaks overnight, next support is quite a bit lower, and I lose out, but hey it's September (10 years of seasonal patterns must count for something!). The Bears have ruled these puppies for several weeks now. The FOMC meeting could well provide the fuel and trigger to reverse that trend.

Have a good evening chaps (don't lose much sleep),

BC

[JBmurc]

Keep an eye on PGI think they will fly today>>>low depth on offer ...Know of a buyer after 300-400k likely today

[JBmurc]

some good moves on open EVN 15% KCN 18% NST 9.8% NCM 8% come on PGI only 3.7% (we need update on production)

[Daytr]

Yep took a 20% profit on KCN this morning from where I bought on the close last night. I've held EVN.


some good moves on open EVN 15% KCN 18% NST 9.8% NCM 8% come on PGI only 3.7% (we need update on production)

[JBmurc]

Yep took a 20% profit on KCN this morning from where I bought on the close last night. I've held EVN.

Yes very good ..I see the top movers on the ASX200 all gold producers ....

As for the short term I really thin T/A wise Gold will trend higher from here to till 1410-1420oz USD resistance area ...just checkout the 6 month chart 1350 has been a very pivotal point of late...

4842

upcoming bullish news for GOLD
http://www.reuters.com/article/2013/09/17/us-usa-debt-idUSBRE98G0KD20130917
Lew repeated a warning he made last month that Treasury would run out of borrowing options around mid-October, when he said that Treasury would be left with only around $50 billion in cash on hand. Default could come soon after that.



Really shows how screwed up the media is ...I watch hours of CNBC per day for the last couple months all I kept hearing was the "TAPER"!!! ...the taper is coming!!! the US is looking great bah bah ...so far nothing on the Debt ceiling NOTHING round a month to go ...and the ten of thousands of US Gov workers won't be getting paid .FBI,CIA, etc.. Every Thursday, the Treasury pays investors back about $100 billion that investors immediately lend back to the government, a process known as rolling over the debt.

"If U.S. bond holders decided that they wanted to be repaid rather than continuing to roll over their investments, we could unexpectedly dissipate the entire US cash balance,"?? panic stations

[Bobcat.]

It's days like these that make being a gold bug so worthwhile.

Iron Ore / Nickel producers also fairing well. My MBN bought at 6.7 yesterday is looking good but gold producers are getting a hefty hike.

Discl: still holding GRY, EVN, SBM, TRY and a few other mineral diggers (will look to sell tomorrow 3pm-ish, otherwise Monday). Even with the massive 20% hike on some gold stocks this morning, there's at least a couple of days of bullish sentiment to get these climbing higher - and besides we have yet to recover from the 25% slide on some stocks over the past week (e.g. KCN, SBM, etc). Knowing when to sell is just as important as knowing when to buy - some would argue more important.

Now I just need Fukushima to be repaired so that my ERA and PDN can lift.

I've flown to AKL this morning to take family out to dinner (today's windfall makes me feel sufficiently generous to pick up the tab!)

Enjoy the wave, boys. Surf's up.

[Daytr]

Great announcement from GOR today, I more than doubled my stake this morning.

EXTENSIVE GOLD ANOMALISM IDENTIFIED
AT BREELYA-MINNIE HILL CAMP




http://www.goldroad.com.au/reports/AugeratBreelya-Augustafinal.pdf

[Bobcat.]

Have you analysed this company, Daytr? Are they producing as well as exploring & developing? And if so, what are their operating costs, do you know? I have not been able to find 'em.

[macduffy]

Have you analysed this company, Daytr? Are they producing as well as exploring & developing? And if so, what are their operating costs, do you know? I have not been able to find 'em.

Try this.

http://www.goldroad.com.au/

[STRAT]

jeeeeezus, I nearly jumped out of my antlers when I saw that boldmess!Hi Moosie.
You clearly havent seen Tricha's posts then. :D

[STRAT]

Great announcement from GOR today, I more than doubled my stake this morning.

EXTENSIVE GOLD ANOMALISM IDENTIFIED
AT BREELYA-MINNIE HILL CAMP




http://www.goldroad.com.au/reports/AugeratBreelya-Augustafinal.pdf


Quite a few of us did rather well out of GOR ( previously EKM ) thanks to Steve Fleming.
http://www.sharetrader.co.nz/showthread.php?6990-Options-long-dated-low-X-price&highlight=ekm
Looking forward to a double dip here. These guys aint half bad at selling their story.

[Daytr]

Sorry about the bold type, was just copying & pasting.
They aren't in production but have 1.6M ounces in reserve/resource category & their target is 4m ounces.
With targets of 15Kms to look at they have a good chance of surpassing that.
I have met them & they seem like good operators. I've been in & out of them a few times & made good dough, but I will stick with a core holding from now as I think this has the potential to be massive.

Speaking to a few of my ex project finance colleagues & they have been pretty positive toward the company & that was before the latest exploration success they have had.

[Bobcat.]

OK - I've just picked up a bundle at 8.8c. Given their potential, these may need to go into the bottom drawer, as part of my rather slim investment portfolio (yep, patience is a virtue of which I've not been overly endowed - 80% of my stocks end up being short to medium term trades, particualrly when my stops are hit). This stock does look good for the long haul.

Cheers,

BC

[Daytr]

Nice one BC, I must admit I was a little surprised the announcement yesterday didn't create more buy interest. Anyway plenty of drill results to come in the coming months which is always nice to ride especially considering their previous success rate.

[Bobcat.]

I bought into Hillgrove Resources (HGO) yesterday after seeing it dive to 6c.

$14m NPAT, $18.6 EBITDA and $17m cash.

Recent big issue ($10m institutional placement at 7c) will bring upward pressure on sp. Fundamentals look OK and so I was drawn in @6.1.

I must admit, I don't know a lot about their management (Greg Hall, Russell Middleton, Steven McClare, Jim Kerr, etc) - any comments on their history?

BC

[Daytr]

Funny I had just put them back on my radar. I have met Russell Middleton a couple of time & was pretty impressed, smart guy. Will refresh my research & revert.

[Joshuatree]

I followed HGO a while back; they pulled in some astute big investors who lost their dough; rinse and repeat?. May have changed management since, i havnt looked.

CAS looking strong happy to be sitting in a poss multi bagger here but still a spekky until permitting etc comes thru. And then Iron Ore sales alone will be around mkt cap.

[Joshuatree]

CAS up re 50% this month finishing @ 30c today.

[Daytr]

Yep I like CAS & I wish I had held on. Think there is still plenty of upside there as well so will be looking to get in at some stage. Hopefully see a nice push higher in the juniors on Monday. I'm loaded up with GOR at the moment, be nice to see them pushed back through 10c. Only a matter of time with the amount of drill results to come through in the next few months & that's if the POG doesn't do it for us first.

[Daytr]

GOR been hammered in last few days on very little volume. Holding fast, but obviously wish I had been more patient. Story is excellent so am confident it will bounce back on either POG or the series of drill results due in the next few months.

[JBmurc]

GOR been hammered in last few days on very little volume. Holding fast, but obviously wish I had been more patient. Story is excellent so am confident it will bounce back on either POG or the series of drill results due in the next few months.

Yes GOR smashed today did have a brief look over a the jnr/micro talked about (I already hold truckloads of PGI so not going add even at these levels) on here as I sold up a major position and had 100k to re-invest ...ended up investing in OGC-1.62 ...TRY .1.51 more so Mid-cap producers with low costs of production thanks to other metal credits ..far lower risk than micro explorers (I should know still holding a near top20 position in CVR)

[Daytr]

BC, I get the sneaky suspicion that we may see an announcement from GOR soon. A few sneaky bids just too out some offers & other offers pulled. Fingers crossed, there should be plenty of drill results in the coming months either way & perhaps this is the first one....

[JBmurc]

Well we got ann from PGI making 2.5mill gross trading profit per month rising to 3.5mill "Q1 14".....and the market gives them a value of 58mill current costs $670-$680oz USD (au eq) but planned to drop 10-20% on better Gold recoveries..

[Daytr]

Looks like GOR is finally getting off the floor! I obviously didn't think it would trade as low as it has again, but there you go patience is a virtue. Hopefully we will see it nudging 10c again before too long. Should be some drill results out soonish you would think.

[Bobcat.]

Yes, I'm still holding - with bids now @ 8.2, I'm sitting even -- and waiting to see what kind of run it will make. 10c u reckon? What's that based on, Daytr?

[Daytr]

Well it was clearly oversold on very little volume BC, but there will be a string of drill announcements in the coming months as well so could be either.

[Daytr]

GOR up 30% for the day! Whoohoo, something must be on the cards!

[Bobcat.]

Something's afoot - GOR's sp climbed quickly this afternoon to close at 9c. I'm getting itchy fingers but will wait until this current upward momentum falls away (Friday?). Resistance at 10c will be a challenge.

Cheers Daytr - no doubt you will sleep better tonight.

BC

[Joshuatree]

Diggers and drillers have put a sell on PGI tonight. At a low, tomorrow won't be good ,... a new low methinks.:(

[JBmurc]

Diggers and drillers have put a sell on PGI tonight. At a low, tomorrow won't be good ,... a new low methinks.:(

Yeah brillant from the DOC that had PGI a BUY @ 20c and now after falling all the way to 6.5c is now a SELL.(no doubt after selling all of their shares)...my mate gets their newsletter etc I've read a few they also do the "Daily reckoning" there picks have been very poor yet many still listen and follow their advice ....I would love to see PGI come out with a great announcement in the short term "Qtr report coming out soon ...
I personal can't see me selling on the DOC's advice
-Why appoint a new CEO to the tune of $400K a year, plus incentive shares, if we are only going to be a marginal producer
-spend over 100mill on the plant/process ....
-the Fact is PGI is moving at a snails pace to many investors but is still getting better results every Qtr .....First Qtr 2014> 6mill gross less net costs 2.5mill =3.5mill gross profit (whats the bet they'll bet it,,a smart 400k CEO would want too )

[Bobcat.]

PGI is now at a price that gets my attention - their last financial report was not so bad:

Rev : $18m plus other income of $13m (2012: $60k). $3m per month of revenue was only 40% of what was anticipated due to undersized agitators slowing down La Lugunas (fixed in July).

NPBT: $520k (2012: $1.5m loss)

EPS: 0.07 (2012: 0.23 loss)

Total Assets: $107m (2012: $112m)
Total Liabilities: $69m (2012: $77m)

Cash reserves have halved from $7.4m to $3.7m and so looks like they need to raise some more working capital (operating costs are $2.2m per month). Otherwise, they are looking good now that most design deficiencies have been resolved.

Technically, the past two days have seen the sp recover from a sell off to end each day with a higher low.

Yes, could well be time to buy.

BC

[Daytr]

Trading halt BC! I knew something was up! I never stress too much about these things. If I ever do its usually because I know I am in a stock I shouldn't be so a good indicator to get out! Didn't stress about GOR as I know the story is good. Let's see what Monday's announcement delivers!


Something's afoot - GOR's sp climbed quickly this afternoon to close at 9c. I'm getting itchy fingers but will wait until this current upward momentum falls away (Friday?). Resistance at 10c will be a challenge.

Cheers Daytr - no doubt you will sleep better tonight.

BC

[Daytr]

This is huge for GOR!

BREAKTHROUGH GOLD DISCOVERIES
CONFIRMED AT DOROTHY HILLS
Highlights

First Reverse Circulation (RC) drilling programs at Gruyere and YAM14
targets along the Dorothy Hills trend have both confirmed significant
gold mineralisation

Infill and extension RC drilling program scheduled to commence shortly
at both Gruyere and YAM14
GRUYERE

Gold intercepted in every drill hole, over almost the entire length of the drill
holes

400 metre strike length, is up to 165 metres wide and to a vertical depth of 88
metres

Mineralised gold zone open along strike, at depth and to the east and west

8 RC drill holes for 609 metres were drilled on two lines, 400 metres apart

Best gold intercepts (at 0.5 g/t Au cut-off) included:

52 metres @ 1.23 g/t Au from surface, including 16 metres @ 1.61
g/t Au (13GYRC0010)

40 metres @ 1.16 g/t Au from 32 metres, including 12 metres @ 1.84
g/t Au (13GYRC0011)

Highest individual composite assays were:

2 metres @ 3.23 g/t Au from 100 metres as a 2 metre composite
sample from the end of the deepest drill hole (13GYRC0011 – hole
ended in highest grade mineralisation intersected in the program)

4 metres @ 2.95 g/t Au from 36 metres (13GYRC0011)

4 metres @ 2.77 g/t Au from 20 metres (13GYRC0010)
YAM14

Gold intercepted in every drill hole

Mineralised gold zone open along strike and at depth

200 metre strike length, is up to 75 metres wide and to depth of 80 metres

9 RC drill holes for 1,131 metres were drilled on three lines 100 metres apart

Significant gold intercepts (at 0.5 g/t Au cut-off) include:

16 metres @ 2.06 g/t Au from 48 metres, including 8 metres @ 3.27
g/t Au (13GYRC0004)

4 metres @ 7.70 g/t Au from 56 metres, (13GYRC0005)

12 metres @ 1.27 g/t Au from 44 metres, including 4 metres @ 2.28
g/t Au (13GYRC0008)

8 metres @ 1.73 g/t Au from 88 metres (13GYRC0003)
2
Gold Road Resources Limited (
Gold Road or the Company) (ASX: GOR) is pleased to announce that it
has discovered a new trend of gold mineralisation in the first-pass RC drilling program on the Dorothy
Hills trend, at both the Gruyere structural target and the YAM14 Redox target, within its 100%-owned
Yamarna Gold Belt, located in the Eastern Goldfields of Western Australia (Figure 1).
Gruyere and YAM14 are the first targets at the Dorothy Hills trend to be RC drill tested.
The discoveries are approximately nine kilometres apart and appear to confirm the potential of the
Dorothy Hills trend for further significant gold deposits (Figure 2).
The Gruyere zone of mineralisation, which is open ended, is interpreted to have at least a 400 metre
strike length, up to 165 metres wide and to a vertical depth of 88 metres. YAM14 is also an open ended
mineralised gold zone over a 200 metre strike length, up to 75 metres wide and to a vertical depth of 80
metres.
Gold Road’s Chairman Ian Murray said, “The Dorothy Hills trend is an exciting new gold discovery area
for the Company and we are very encouraged with the width of the gold systems discovered at both
Gruyere and YAM14 targets. We have not seen these types of wide gold intercepts before on the
Yamarna Belt and this opens up the Belt for new styles of gold mineralisation.
The success of this initial program warrants further drilling. A second RC drilling program will commence
shortly at both Gruyere and YAM14.
Our regional targeting strategy to discover multi-million ounce deposits highlighted both the Gruyere and
YAM14 targets, together with around another 40 priority structural and Redox targets within our ~5,000
km
2 tenement holdings. We are very excited that the first-pass RC drill program at our first two targets
has discovered significant gold mineralised zones and we look forward to drill testing further prioritised
targets”.

[Daytr]

Gotta love that BC!

[Bobcat.]

Yep. Buy on rumour - sell on actual. Thanks Daytr. When the sp dropped to 6.8 I was wondering just how it would turn out, but your tip did come thru. I took profit this morning and have used the funds from my sale to buy again into TRY and AQG (both low cost operators which will survive better than most any further drop in the POG).

Plays like GOR, AZS and the dead cat bounce on MBN the other day have kept my head above water, countering what is now a full month's slide on most other mineral stocks. Technically, it's screaming for a counterpunch. This week?

BC

[Daytr]

I only sold out a 3rd, I think there is much more to come on this baby & I even think once the significance of this initial discovery gets around the market the SP will get another kicker. Anyway well done BC!

[JBmurc]

Gotta love that BC!

Yes a Gold Explorer valued the same as my poor old PGI Gold/Silver producer market must believe they have one large resource and will be able to make a dollar from it one day

[Daytr]

Well they already have 1.6M ounces in resources, this is a new strike zone & they estimate it could run for 15kms!


Yes a Gold Explorer valued the same as my poor old PGI Gold/Silver producer market must believe they have one large resource and will be able to make a dollar from it one day

[JBmurc]

Well they already have 1.6M ounces in resources, this is a new strike zone & they estimate it could run for 15kms!

Whats the average grade on the GOR resource ? Cash --

my last Explorer investment PXG had targets of 4moz resource in the heart of the W.A Gold Fields by early 2014 $20mill in cash E.V only 17mill

Can't say with the current sentiment in the PM sectors and known In-all costs of many Aus producers well over $1000oz that I'd be keen
on Buying up PM EXplorers or really any explorers when I can pick up Profitable PM producers for the same money and get a 100mill plant for free

[Bobcat.]

I've sold out this morning at 11c but will surf this one again if sellers take the sp down toward 9c again. I like its potential.

[JBmurc]

I've sold out this morning at 11c but will surf this one again if sellers take the sp down toward 9c again. I like its potential.

Think that's a smart move when you look at how undervalued the PM sector/PM prices ....If we see this continuing many PM project's won't get the funding needed to continue doesn't matter how great your ground is if the numbers don't stack up....current PM prices and average all-in costs to produce gold in this part of the world round $1200per oz USD (going from OGC asx peer review) I just don't get the excitement round PM explorer's at present unless they have a mining plant to go with it...PXG one of the better ASX explorer plays market values close to $1 per oz E.V
--then you see the like of OGC buy a high grade 10g/t au equ 1moz for $7 per oz au equ

[JBmurc]

According to analysts from JP Morgan 30% of WA's gold is being produced at a cost in excess of the POG, and a further 30% is considered marginal, ie some 60% of WA's gold stocks should be avoided (IMHO), this fact likely to become all too clear during the next 24 days as the 2013 Q3 reports start thudding on analyst's desks.---This was when POG is USD1311, AUD1390...

[Daytr]

JB, I haven't seen too many producers with total costs that high. I assume they have taken the data from financial reports so you would hope is accurate. This is why you are selective about what gold stocks you buy. If some of this production is shut down then that is a positive imo as I don't invest in those stocks & it means there is less production. South Africa is where they are really struggling, but yes I am sure there are some that are struggling in Aussie as well.


According to analysts from JP Morgan 30% of WA's gold is being produced at a cost in excess of the POG, and a further 30% is considered marginal, ie some 60% of WA's gold stocks should be avoided (IMHO), this fact likely to become all too clear during the next 24 days as the 2013 Q3 reports start thudding on analyst's desks.---This was when POG is USD1311, AUD1390...

[JBmurc]

JB, I haven't seen too many producers with total costs that high. I assume they have taken the data from financial reports so you would hope is accurate. This is why you are selective about what gold stocks you buy. If some of this production is shut down then that is a positive imo as I don't invest in those stocks & it means there is less production. South Africa is where they are really struggling, but yes I am sure there are some that are struggling in Aussie as well.

Well there out there in large numbers it's really only a matter of time before we see many hitting the wall >>and having to come to S/H to stay afloat esp if Gold stays or goes lower ....

I'm currently going over some PM producer ann reports,, I really don't think many investors understand is how slim profits are for many PM producers currently....all in costs for the likes of NCM is round $1400oz EVN $1430oz SLR $1325oz OGC $1000 PGI $800-900

Fact is many a PM producers Mgmt like to talk up mining costs being low but once you include the all in costs to mine they go up $300-$400per oz............or look at there profit numbers Qty you see it far from good ...then in many cases micro-jnr start up producers are having to pay back debt leaving nil to neg margins even if they were making a slime profit.....

[Corporate]

Good discussion JB. Through your review of goldies did any standout as profitable in this market?

[JBmurc]

Good discussion JB. Through your review of goldies did any standout as profitable in this market?

Well as you could understand it's a very murky subject so very few PM producers give us a "All-in-costs-to produce per oz"
which just adds to the distrust from the market ....think this is slowly changing esp. from the guys that are profitable
Going from the recent OGC presentation page 9 -http://www.oceanagold.com/assets/documents/Presentations/131001-OGC-Corporate-Presentation-October-FINAL.pdf

Worldwide Avg. all-in Industry costs per oz USD =1100oz ...

I'm bias but I do like OGC,PGI both making a nett profit long as Gold stays north of 1000oz

other's making a profit I've come across -MML,NST,TRY

[Bobcat.]

I've come back in on GOR this morning, ready to surf this baby onward and upward.

Daytr - still holding your two-thirds?

Also, PRU's financial update looks good - just released this morning - no debt, 8% ROE, $45m cash, operational improvements, all-in cash costs of $1150USD means even if POG drops another $100 they are still making a profit. This morning I've bought a few more. Don't be surprised if FP and other analysts give it a big rap sometime soon.

BC

[Daytr]

BC, just a 3rd I offloaded the other 3rd that same day, so averaged 11c sale. Have loaded up now, holding, GOR, MYG, SOC & have one more fill to be done then I'll be fully positioned.

[JBmurc]

Good rebound from OGC from a 1.32 low yesterday to 1.39 high so far today

[JBmurc]

BC, just a 3rd I offloaded the other 3rd that same day, so averaged 11c sale. Have loaded up now, holding, GOR, MYG, SOC & have one more fill to be done then I'll be fully positioned.

Whats up with the investment in Only PM Explorers ?? I understand like the whole PM sector they are very out of favour ..and on good drill results may spike for a quick trade ....But as they mostly only survive on the cash of S/H's pockets or high cost finance which I couldn't image to be easy to get these days as even producers are bending over for every dollar>> really think for the bulk of PM explorers selling discovery,Toll-treatment ,takeover by nearby producer etc being the best outcome to survive this Bear trend...

Great read round the PM sector going forward-(some 600 jnr explorers with less than 200k in the bank)
https://www.explorationinsights.com/pebble.asp?relid=2937


Don't get me wrong buying cheap producers aren't also a easy trade (hold PGI,CVR so I know all about smashed SP producers)

[Daytr]

So how's everyone positioned? I'm fully invested. Loaded up on GOR, also have a chunk of MYG & SOC. Missed out on CAS, got greedy on entry point & now kicking myself! Think its going to be a great end of year! Good luck everyone!

[Bobcat.]

I'm loaded up and watching for the PoG's reaction to tomorrow night's US economic data (1st lot since the shutdown). If data is lousy, and Equity markets get nervous, expect another spike.

[Bobcat.]

Daytr - looks like I came in too early again on GOR (market has not taken kindly to its latest report wherein it states management are still deferring its pre-feasibility study awaiting an adjustment to underground contract mining costs and an end to the 'market flux').

But when I noticed you were buying MYG, I had a brief look at it before getting a few yesterday at 3.2c. Here's what Reuters are saying from its annual report:

BRIEF: For the fiscal year ended 30 June 2013, Mutiny Gold Limited revenues increased from A$355K to A$12.1M. Net income totaled A$6.1M vs. 2012 loss of A$3.4M. Revenues reflect Gullewa segment increase from A$10K to A$11.9M. Net Income reflects Consulting expense decrease of 39% to A$604K (expense), Impairment of exploration & evaluation a decrease from A$36K (expense) to A$0K.

They have achieved their first profit since listing, and as reported last Wednesday, they have completed a definitive feasibility study on their Deflector Gold Copper project (high grade at 6.4 g/t, very low cost at $USD574/oz !!). Production start up costs are only $62m. 2nd phase ramp up is expected to produce 150,000 oz with an exploration target of 1.6m to 3m oz.

They sold their hedging for $12m profit, have reduced debt and operating cost, and expect to be cash-flow positive next year. They claim to have three banks ready to finance as soon as the POG begins again to lift (i.e. this week?)

Am I missing anything pertinent? What else can anyone more familiar with this company and its management tell us? I like the fact that the Board is not waiting until there is a confirmed Bull run on gold before getting their low cost flagship mine underway and producing. They have balls....of course having a low cost mine reduces the risk of ramping up too early...but their timing looks good.

Recommended Buy.

BC

Discl: Holding just a few but will buy more on dips.

[JBmurc]

Surprised your not looking at SOC bobcat... is looking one of the better explorers round with very large targets

[Bobcat.]

Surprised your not looking at SOC bobcat... is looking one of the better explorers round with very large targets

SOC's Hobbs Pipe 1 has 246k oz inferred but grade of 0.75g/t. Do you have their all-in costs?

[JBmurc]

SOC's Hobbs Pipe 1 has 246k oz inferred but grade of 0.75g/t. Do you have their all-in costs?

well worth looking at latest Analyst reports-http://www.sovereigngold.com.au/Broker-Coverage.htm
---they give a great all round rundown on SOC assets....

some piece's from the reports

SOC is exploring one of the most promising gold plays in Australia: Mt Adrah. Hobbs Pipe 1 (650koz Au) could form the centre of a significant gold province (target +3.2Moz Au) with potential for bulk mining. Drilling is in progress on high priority 3D-IP targets.
conceptual Exploration Target for Hobbs Pipe 1 of of 80-104Mt grading 1.23-1.37 g/t for 3.2Moz to 4.6Moz contained gold.


--SOC is Leveraged to combined $21m exploration spend by JV partner SUGEC
(Jiangsu) on Uralla-Rocky River IRGS

-SOC owns 80% of ASX:PMR.

-SOC/Gossan are yet to publish economic studies of a potential gold mining operation at Mt Adrah, but they have discussed some general concepts. The mining method under consideration is open cut to 200m with block or sublevel caving methods extending to a further 500m, potentially with a second stage to +1000m. Consultants (JKTech) have been engaged to evaluate the underground potential.
Mining costs for underground caving vary across the industry, depending on rheology and geometry of various orebodies – but BOEQ estimates that <$A$15/t and possibly <$10/t might be reasonable IF Hobbs Pipe proves suitable for this technique.

[Daytr]

Hey guys, will try & write something up over the weekend. A bit tired after being out fishing all day. Happy Friday.

[Bobcat.]

I'm not convinced re SOC.

Aside from MYG, I also like the look of Chalice Gold Mines (CHN). FP recommended them as a continued Hold last week, and I got a technical (TA) buy signal yesterday at 16c, so I bought some. Then late this afternoon they published their annual report, and I like what I see. Lots of cash, NTA is way above market price, and I like the way they are going about their acquistions (with more to come).

Others' thoughts on their management and track record?

[Daytr]

I think SOC is highly speculative & as such I have kept my position small. The pay-off imo opinion COULD be huge. Basically this is a new type of orebody for Australia & I must admit IU have been impressed by the way the management have gone about things to date & their success rate at an early stage. The potential & I emphasize potential is they are on to something that could be 5-6 million ounces & possibly 5 times that. I know that sounds ridiculous, but its possible. They metallurgy could be a problem, although there has ben major advances in treating refractory ore in the last 10 years & if they do get anywhere near the size they hope for it probably wont matter if recoveries aren't quite as good as the industry standard.

Re MYG, I have always liked this & have tried to get it financed in the past before the gold bust. What I like the most is the grade & also that its open at depth. The management I think should of & could of got financed earlier, however they were trying to avoid dilution by not raising equity. This was admirable, but it cost them as I think they would have got the debt deal done if they had raised $30M when the share price was around 10c. Anyway with the gold price heading in the right direction there is a good chance this will get financed early as the work has already been done, BFS & DFS. I also like their little iron ore play, its probably not a company maker but could earn them something like $10-12M a year.

Question for you guys. How do you add a note to the bottom of your posts that will always appear? Something like 'do your own research' I put out a lot of tips etc, so bets protect myself I suppose. Any ideas?

[Bobcat.]

Alright, I'm persuaded to have a closer look at SOC. Technically, their chart looks good for a Buy (especially with the POG's upward trendline now established)...and if as Datyr suggests there is massive upside potential, it could well be worth a speculative play.

Initially (compared with MYG) I wasn't so impressed with the grade that SOC are promising but their indicative resource size is impressive.

A bit more research and I may well take a bite at this cherry but their financing will be a factor.

Have you chaps looked into CHN? That's another play that I'm researching and so far I like what I see. They are about to acquire Coventry Resources whose Canadian Cameron Gold field has a grade of 2.24 g/t on contained gold of over 1.5m oz, and West Cadatree field with 6.3m intercepts graded at 3.7 g/t.

From their Zara sale, CHN is highly cashed up ($56.6m) with funds not just for this acquisition but also for exploration work on its Mogoraib North tenament with very good prospects. I've bought into it already but interested in hearing others' opinion on this digger before deciding whether or not to invest more. Opinions?


Question for you guys. How do you add a note to the bottom of your posts that will always appear? Something like 'do your own research' I put out a lot of tips etc, so bets protect myself I suppose. Any ideas?

Go to top of screen; forum actions / edit profile / edit signature (left)

[Daytr]

Thanks BC. Will take a look at CHN & get back. I remember meeting with Coventry at Diggers & Dealers a few years back & they were in demand then. Mind you gold was at $1650 or something at the time.

I might look at going to D&G next year. Its the best mining conference in Australia & good fun to as long as you are broad minded. Its in August in Kalgoorlie & its not cheap, but great place to meet a lot of the mining management. Let me know if anyone is interested as maybe we could look at an NZ investor contingent going together. We would get more attention that way. I know the organisers & can arrange good accommodation which is like hens teeth.

[JBmurc]

one of SOC issues will be cash wise ....if they could get a buyer for PMR they could free up 20-30mill ....most likely CR soon enough

-End of the day SOC is valued at 31mill

-JORC resource at Hobbs Pipe 1 intrusion is 650koz Au @ 1.24g/t – recent drilling includes 886m @ 1.2g/t; Conceptual Exploration Target of 3.2-4.6Moz Au......not valued at much at all by the market?

[Daytr]

Hey JB, I think SOC is reasonably valued compared to a lot of others. However I couldn't name one other explorer who has the possibility of making a 6M ounce discovery let alone multiples of that.

[JBmurc]

Hey JB, I think SOC is reasonably valued compared to a lot of others. However I couldn't name one other explorer who has the possibility of making a 6M ounce discovery let alone multiples of that.

SOC news out---Glad I doubled my holding to 94k ords manys thanks Daytr for bringing SOC to the ST team ....never thought I'd buy into the exploration PM sector but thought I'd look over the stocks on the thread >>> SOC IMHO looks like it could 10-20 bagger from here

Sovereign Gold Company Limited (ASX: SOC), through subsidiary Gossan Hill Gold Limited, is pleased to announce the discovery of high grade gold mineralisation outside of the Hobbs 1 Pipe, providing further encouragement that the Mt Adrah district will potentially host gold mineralisation additional to the current resource.
Drill hole GHD009 included an intercept of 10m @ 17.7g/t Au from 506m from a zone of narrow quartz veins, intense sulphide veining and alteration within skarn-altered rocks adjacent to the Hobbs Pipe 1 (true width not known).
This intercept included 2m @ 28.4g/t Au from 506m and 2m @ 59.4g/t Au from 514m.

this is only the start of the castor results talk round this could well be NCM Cadia BIG 10's moz

from HC-Castor is around 40 times the size of Hobbs. They drilled this from the top of Hobbs Pipe 1, several hundred meters away and still managed to intersect the pipe at depth and find a high grade zone ! Have to be extremely lucky to hit the 'juiciest' part of the deposit on the first hole and from such a distance.

Today's results back up the anecdotal evidence the old timers mentioned that Castor was previously shallow mined up on the hill at several ozs/t gold.

[Daytr]

No worries JB. I doubled up this morning. You in BC? Still a chance to sit on the bid at 21c. I think this will really start to go once word spreads.

[Daytr]

Hey JB, one thing to be weary of having a big position, is that SOC is extremely illiquid. I am very bullish on SOC so may never be a problem, but just something to be aware of. I agree re 10-20 bagger its quite possible & with results like today & they continue getting more probable. Remember the old Probables vs Possible All Black trails? The Possibles always won! haha

[JBmurc]

Hey JB, one thing to be weary of having a big position, is that SOC is extremely illiquid. I am very bullish on SOC so may never be a problem, but just something to be aware of. I agree re 10-20 bagger its quite possible & with results like today & they continue getting more probable. Remember the old Probables vs Possible All Black trails? The Possibles always won! haha

Yeah for sure I do plan to lighten my load round 30c...free carry the other half for longer term 10 bagger potential

[Bobcat.]

You in BC? Still a chance to sit on the bid at 21c. I think this will really start to go once word spreads.

I've taken a holiday all day (put in a garden). Just now have I seen the move on SOC and how sellers took it down to 21.5c late afternoon. Technically that price looks fine to me and so, depending on what happens overnight on the NYMEX, don't be surprised if I join you both on this one. Meanwhile, I'm happy enough with what I've seen on Gold Juniors SCI, PGI and MYG today. All rising nicely. CHN is proving stubbon but I'm confident there's value in their takeover and so will be patient.

BC

[Daytr]

MYG & SOC both doing well today, GOR off a bit, I unloaded some GOR two days ago to move more into SOC, still hold half b& may look to top up if goes much lower. Nice day considering POG down a little. Think SOC is gathering momentum, could be an interesting end to the week for this baby!

[JBmurc]

Yeah soc my only gainer today came close to reducing PGI position
Purely as its run pretty well of late.. And have the funds on the sideline for SOC really think
A big announcement is coming that will push it towards analyst valuations
Be good to be ready to pounce

[Entrep]

Yes good to finally see some decent movement in SOC.

[JBmurc]

thursday sell-off yet again glad to have sold down my PGI position yesterday shifted funds to OIL jnr ROC...should get cheaper today

[Daytr]

JB, it will be interesting to see how SOC performs after 2 days in a row with POG down. Defied the odds yesterday as did MYG, although MYG may be trading a bit on its FE play rather than gold at the moment.

[JBmurc]

JB, it will be interesting to see how SOC performs after 2 days in a row with POG down. Defied the odds yesterday as did MYG, although MYG may be trading a bit on its FE play rather than gold at the moment.

I'd say it SOC will hold value to maybe a slight pullback 23-23.5 on the back of the Gold price sell-down ...has been some great movement in the SP ...I'm not planning on selling any till more results are known as SOC has within a very short time discovered maybe one of the biggest gold deposits in Aussie in recent times ...most explorers need years to prove up muti moz resource SOC likely within months ..like we've talked about it's what SOC is going have by this time next year if they keep drilling and getting these gold mineralized
grades over 500-1000m we could have est. size 20-30-60moz ?? I'm sure it's not going take long before a NCM comes knocking...

[JBmurc]

Surprising good bid support on open for SOC sold just under half my holding @24.5c and come back with the funds with a 23.5c bid
should yield me extra 2658 shares for the trade

[Daytr]

I did similar JB, sold around 40% of my holding & put half of that in GOR which has dropped nicely. Will hold fire & see what to do with the rest. I always like sitting on a bit of cash, waiting for an opportunity to shout at me!

[Daytr]

Hey JB/BC,who do you use as a broker to do your ASX trading. I'm looking to switch, so be good to hear your views & what brokerage you are paying. Send me a private message if you prefer. Much appreciated. Thanks Daytr

[Bobcat.]

Hey JB/BC,who do you use as a broker to do your ASX trading. I'm looking to switch, so be good to hear your views & what brokerage you are paying. Send me a private message if you prefer. Much appreciated. Thanks Daytr

Done - check ur inbox.

[Bobcat.]

I'm now also in on SOC with you boys (Daytr and JBmurc). My checky bid at 21.5c got hit after the sp dropped from a 24.5c double top last Friday. Looks to be a big seller driving the price down from there...but for how long? If this stock really does have the potential to be one of Australia's largest gold mines, next climb to that level will IMHO easily punch through and continue beyond.
BC

[Daytr]

Nice one BC, I'm holding but only 60% of what I was sold some out at 24c. Now looking to buy back in again. Its very speculative as this part of the sector always is, but the potential on this one is the biggest I have come across. Good luck!

[Daytr]

GOR going for a little run this arvo, nice to see. Glad to be restocked at 8.1c!

[Bobcat.]

GOR going for a little run this arvo, nice to see. Glad to be restocked at 8.1c!

True, although I think their decision to defer their Pre-feasibility study is weighing heavy on the sp. I would've preferred to see them progress that now rather than wait until the price of Gold is more favourable and mining costs 'stabilise'.

Disc: holding just a few.

[Daytr]

Perhaps BC, I have a reasonable position but not as big as previously. Just took out 8.7c on small volume admittedly. There was a leaky boat last time they announced drill results, I'm wondering if its the same again. Soon see.

[clip]

Anyone looking at OEL/NDO regarding the OEL announcement due open today/end of trading halt?

/edit OEL had a negative announcement, big seller volume at low SP. not likely to be touching these. disc: not holding NDO or OEL

[Daytr]

Just flicked out of my MYG holding for a small profit. Not that I'm down on it, just don't think its going to move anywhere in a hurry & could see what I consider better opportunities. Just picked up some WAF at 12.5c, been watching it for a while & think it can get back toward 20c fairly easily. Proof as always will be in the puddin !

[Daytr]

Another great announcement from SOC. This is looking like a hellava company! Finding gold & silver left right & centre !

[Bobcat.]

Another great announcement from SOC. This is looking like a hellava company! Finding gold & silver left right & centre !

Yes, the silver discovery in this announcement looks particularly good. Thanks for the tip, Daytr - I came in earlier this week and this stock has pushed well against the tide to be up 9% since Tuesday.

Holding and anticipating next week a push through its price resistance at 25c.

BC

[JBmurc]

Wow more great results from SOC ...think some of the PGI might have been jumping ship glad to have shifted a good chunk of my PGI 6.1c-6c to SOC & ROC .....but at 5c I'm thinking PGI well oversold ...will see how others go but would be happy to increase PGI at these levels ...won't be selling SOC way to much drilling results to come

[Daytr]

Yep SOC is certainly starting to stack up. This could be an absolute elephant or perhaps herd of! Quite incredible success rate to date.

[JBmurc]

Yep SOC is certainly starting to stack up. This could be an absolute elephant or perhaps herd of! Quite incredible success rate to date.

yes and in this game size is everything could well end up one giant Gold-copper-silver mine the likes of NCM would be happy to take of are hands for a good price

[Daytr]

Thinking today will prove be a good buying day in gold juniors. I am already loaded up, so jumped the gun a little early however only one of my stocks GOR is under water & I am pretty confident on that one bouncing back. As per post on gold thread I wouldn't be surprised to see gold bounce from around this level.

[Bobcat.]

Most Gold Junior stocks on the ASX seem to be holding well given the drop in the PoG overnight. Half of my portfolio is holding, a quarter falling (mainly larger, more senior producers) and a quarter rising in price, in spite of it all (OGC, SCI, DML, etc). Like Datyr, I'm also picking a rebound as the POG tries to establish an upward trend line off 1190, 1250 and now 1265...for just how long remains to be seen.

[Daytr]

BC, currently in GOR weighted quite heavily, SOC looking to hold & WAF which I think can go back to 20c quite easily. Currently trading around 13c. Its very illiquid though. Its a bit like an undeveloped DML in the making being African copper/gold.

[Bobcat.]

Gold junior TAM has just today announced a 1:1 rights issue at 2c. Until today, it's been trading above 4.4c, and I very nearly bought some last week after researching their assets and projects. Trading now at 2.9c and rather attractive IMO:

1. First class gold deposits. TAM has just begun redrilling its Kavanagh gold deposit in the NT with a significant strike length of 600m and 0.8m graded at 155g/t (!), 1m @33g/t and 3m @15g/t. Indicative: 11m tonnes of iron ore graded at 3.7g/t for a contained gold of 1.4moz. Project has estimated cost of $3.5m.

2. Is running out of cash, hence the rights issue to raise $11.75m, underwritten by TAM's largest shareholder, Allied Properties Resources Ltd, to fund Kavanagh and Coyote gold projects, pay back debt and provide additional working capital.

3. Fixed costs and overheads are being reduced.

Buying this stock at 2c is good value.

Discl: Not holding yet but I do have a cheeky pre-rights bid or two sitting between 2c and 3c which I'm hoping will be hit after the news gets more widespread attention. Otherwise I'll be buying on the way up during rights trading.

Check it out goldbugs.

BC

[JBmurc]

Yep SOC is certainly starting to stack up. This could be an absolute elephant or perhaps herd of! Quite incredible success rate to date.

I see us retail SOC holders only have round 11mill shares to buy as the rest is held up very tightly from the top20 and going from recent trading I'd say a major has been adding to their positions ....I see the 20th holding going from the last ann report was holding only 250k ...I'm only 70k shares way from holding a larger position ....Overall so few shares so much muti-bagger potential

[Daytr]

GOR just announced further drill results, doubling strike length. Lowish grade, but great intercepts of considerable meterage & shallow. These guys just keep finding more gold & at a rapid rate!

[Daytr]

Bailed out at 9c for an ok profit. Phew as just got whacked back to around 8c! Will look now for another opportunity to get back in! Love this stock for trading!

BC, re Tanami (TAM) I had quite a few dealings with them about 2 years ago & back then I thought they were a bit of a dog to be honest. Haven't looked at them since so will take another look.

See SOC just sold tenements for shares worth $8M. These guys are doing all the right things imo!

[Bobcat.]

Yes, SOC has had a sharp lift in price (9%) this morning. Pleased to have bought into this last week.

Re AQG: 5m stock just now traded hands at $2.30. The stock has been sold down to that price for this specific trade IMO. I'm expecting a sharp lift from here. Alacer is a cost-efficient operation with a good track record at its Turkish mine and what looks to be a prosperous future. Discl: topped up late last week.

[JBmurc]

Yes SOC up on very low volume can,t wait till we see larger volume buyers turn up and I,m only talking 20-30k aud buyers nothing big at all and SOC will move 20-30%

my target is min 100% return within 120-150 days

[Daytr]

Speaking of Alacer BC. Check out Metalsx they just picked up Alacer's Aussie gold operations & will produce 150kpa off the bat. I know the chairman Peter Cook & MDWarren Hallam very well & they are some of the best operators in the business.

Cooky finally firing up & getting back into gold where he belongs. Big Bell isn't an easy operation as has a history of seismic movement, however if anyone can work an underground mine well its Cooky. I remember what he did with the tired old Mt Magnet assets back in Hill 50 days.

I just did a very rough back of the envelope valuation based purely on production vs Newcrest & MLX is around half the value of NCM even at its lowest price of $9.25/share! Sure NCM has around 100M ounces of gold in the ground & that maybe its upside as a takeover target by a major, however at the current POG it is still over valued by a quite a bit compared to something like MLX. Gotta love their tin position as well, one of the best performing base metals around. Just need Nickel to pick up now, but that could take a looong time with all the pif iron production around. MLX is turning into a true diversified miner.

[Daytr]

Agree, on AQG, does seem very cheap. Basically cash backed!
Besides the $40M from asset sales recently where did they get the other $180M? Massive capital raising to pay off debt facility?




Re AQG: 5m stock just now traded hands at $2.30. The stock has been sold down to that price for this specific trade IMO. I'm expecting a sharp lift from here. Alacer is a cost-efficient operation with a good track record at its Turkish mine and what looks to be a prosperous future. Discl: topped up late last week.

[Bobcat.]

As at 30 Sept, Alacer had no external debt.

Strong cash position of $222m ($263m in cash and cash-equivalents).

Working capital of $315m.

AISC of only $701/oz (I'm assuming AUD) with $241/oz of that being one-time capital project costs.

http://www.asx.com.au/asxpdf/20131030/pdf/42kfqwpwvzg4jl.pdf

2 weeks ago, they announced their decision to pursue POX (Pressure Oxidation) as their sulfide processing method,


...which if you look through their evaluation and selection process looks sound and cost effective (e.g. commercially proven with 94% gold recoveries - 15% better than roasting)...but that announcement was not well received in the market with AQG's share price falling over 20% since the announcement two weeks ago:

http://www.asx.com.au/asxpdf/20131106/pdf/42knl5vhj00tq8.pdf

If any companies are going to survive any further drop off in the price of Gold, then it's going to be low cost producers, and Alacer is one of them.

Check out the RSI on its chart here:
https://www.directbroking.co.nz/DirectTrade/dynamic/superchart.aspx?sc=KCN&eg=AU


I'm buying more today.

BC

[Daytr]

Actually I correct that re the MC. On Etrade it says MC for AQG is $240M. I just calculated for myself its actually around $670M! Wow I have never noticed that befpre Etrade being out like that. Will be checking their numbers a lot more from now! As that what you see the market cap BC? 292M shares x $2.30 = $670M ?

[blueswan]

On IRESS they have 101,761,154 Shares on Issue and at 2.29 MC is at 233M.

[JBmurc]

-PGI pushed down of late 5.1c really need to here improved Gold/silver recoveries on fixed plant to get much love SP wise ....is really on the knife edge anymore stuff-ups it could halve the SP or if they can show we are finally on the road of profitable low cost gold production below was the last ann.....

PanTerra Gold Limited (ASX: PGI) (PanTerra Gold or the “Company”), advises that following the rectification of faulty welds to the Albion agitators, production is back on trend to achieve previously stated guidance (announced 17 October 2013), with the value of doré produced in the week ending Friday 1 November 2013 being approximately $1.0m.

So full Qtr would be 12mill ...going be a much happier S/H when they ann 1.25mill+ per week in Gold equif dore ...then we finally can see some light at the end of this long ramp up stage

[JBmurc]

Actually I correct that re the MC. On Etrade it says MC for AQG is $240M. I just calculated for myself its actually around $670M! Wow I have never noticed that befpre Etrade being out like that. Will be checking their numbers a lot more from now! As that what you see the market cap BC? 292M shares x $2.30 = $670M ?

yeah Hotcopper states the same wrong MC well worth checking

[Daytr]

Hey Blueswan, I think they have 292M shares on issue as per their latest report. I was wondering how they had so much cash. I assume they did a massive equity raising & diluted the shareholding by half?


On IRESS they have 101,761,154 Shares on Issue and at 2.29 MC is at 233M.

[Daytr]

Alacer shares on issue. 290M undiluted, 292M on a diluted basis. So MC is $670m ish

14. Share capital and share
‐based payments
a)
Share capital
Note
Number of
Shares
$
Balance at December 31, 2012
288,317,456 $ 1,457,468
Shares issued:
On exercise of share
‐based awards 14b 1,274,902 7,775
Balance at September 30, 2013
289,592,358 $ 1,465,243

[blueswan]

On my IRESS/IOS which is quite accurate it only shows Quoted Shares on Issue as 101,761,154

Sub-Industry : Gold - 15104030
Quoted Shares On Issue : 101761154
Market Cap $ : 234050654.2
Net Asset Backing : 0
Price / NTA : 0
EPS : -318.93
PE Ratio : -0.7212

[blueswan]

Looks like all of these Gold Stocks are getting pummeled, NCM very close to its 9.07 lows last June although we have been seeing an exodus of key personnel in NCM. But POG is still just below 1288.

[Daytr]

Blueswan, that's also what Etrade says, however the numbers I gave you of shares on issue is from Alacer's own financial report. Check it out page 15 of the 30 Sep 2013 un-audited financial report. Happy to be corrected but I think I'm right here. I thought the valuation of $230M off sounded too good when they are sitting on that much cash. Any thoughts BC on the MC? If the MC is truly $230Mish then its a bargain. At $670M not so much.

I see they were paid $138M for the sale of Frog's leg + $40M from Metalsx so that's where the money has come from on the balance sheet.

[Bobcat.]

On 6 Nov, Alacer stated their Market Cap to be approx $800m: 290 issued and 290 fully diluted. See page 5 in:

http://www.asx.com.au/asxpdf/20131106/pdf/42knl5vhj00tq8.pdf

This report was probably compiled the prior week when their stock was trading at around $2.90, meaning at $2.30, their MC is now more like :

230/290 * $800m = approx $634m.

[Daytr]

Cheers BC.

[Bobcat.]

BC, re Tanami (TAM) I had quite a few dealings with them about 2 years ago & back then I thought they were a bit of a dog to be honest. Haven't looked at them since so will take another look.


Did you get some? Up over 20% today.

[Daytr]

Nah I haven't had a look yet. Poured money into MLX as I think they are on their way to building a diversified mining house. Gold & tin already in production which should generate $100M of free cash flow pa. Plus They are looking to expand both so that number could be doubled in a year or two. They are also sitting on some other major resources of zinc & nickel. Peter Cook & team are some of the best in the business so am very positive on where they will take MLX. Thought they picked up Alacer's Aussie assets at A$40m for a steal, however it probably suits both parties.

[Bobcat.]

[QUOTE=Daytr;442739]Nah I haven't had a look yet. [QUOTE]

My bid at 2.8 never got hit and so I missed out as well on TAM's sp recovery. Instead I've bought into PRU. Their sp has dived lately (from $1.20 6 months ago to 33c this morning) not just because of the price of Gold falling away but due to their still high ASIC of $1342/oz. This is only a 5% improvement on their end of June quarter ASIC, but they are confident they can drop it to $1263/oz this quarter. They are hedged at an average price of $1408/oz which helps but it is still too high compared to most other diggers (c.f. low cost producers TRY, OGC, AQG, etc). They do however seem to have it moving in the right direction.

Also, I see that their managing director and CEO, Jeffrey Quartermine, has been buying stock (over $100k) at 38c, and so I figure if I can buy these at a 15% discount to what he's happy paying then chances are I'll be in the money before too long...perhaps as early as this weekend. It's usually a good sign when directors are buying stock.

PRu's latest Management report reads OK (except for the ASIC):
http://www.asx.com.au/asxpdf/20131118/pdf/42kxf5g5bk5w70.pdf
- debt free, $26m cash ($45.3m cash, bullion and other investments), 7.1Moz measured and indicated (187Mt @1.1g/t), 3.6Moz proven and probable (92Mt at 1.2g/t) and 3.0Moz inferred (101Mt @1.1g/t). Grade is not outstanding but a steady operator.

NPAT of $41.4m (9cps), operating cash flow of $46.7m, and ROE of 8%.

Discl: buying (as a bottom feeder!)

[Daytr]

Shame about TAM BC, certainly had a good day!

[blueswan]

I bought a lot of these Explor Resources stock when it was at around 40 cents( EXS.TX ) this is a Venture one also in Gold,silver etc. The SP dropped all the way to 2.5 cents and some clients were able to average buy at 3 cents. I was surprised to see the SP hit 17 cents last week and now still at 12 cents. That proves if you are patient there are still trash out there that will eventually pay off as long as you buy more when they are close to nil value.

[Daytr]

Or go broke Blueswan! Actually it si one of the benefits of being in explorers rather than producers. Explorers very rarely go broke as they don't usually have debt as they can't access it. But you do have to tolerate the volatility that comes with the beast!


I bought a lot of these Explor Resources stock when it was at around 40 cents( EXS.TX ) this is a Venture one also in Gold,silver etc. The SP dropped all the way to 2.5 cents and some clients were able to average buy at 3 cents. I was surprised to see the SP hit 17 cents last week and now still at 12 cents. That proves if you are patient there are still trash out there that will eventually pay off as long as you buy more when they are close to nil value.

[Daytr]

GOR going for another run today up to 10c. Kicking myself a bit for selling at 9c, however was happy at the time so can't complain.
Looking for another pull back in this baby to load up again.

[Bobcat.]

GOR going for another run today up to 10c. Kicking myself a bit for selling at 9c, however was happy at the time so can't complain.
Looking for another pull back in this baby to load up again.

Yes, I had an offer sitting at 9.9c which I thought was far enough above market price to catch the tip of a spike (from 8c last Friday) but it got hit within 2 hours of trading today, and I see that its now trading at 10.5c with good support at 10c. This bullish run has legs, and if previous runs are anything to go by, should last a few days.

I still made a profit so I'm not complaining but I gotta keep reminding myself to wait at least 3 full days once a run begins. Today is only half way through day 3.
Resistance at 12c may well be tested before the weekend.

BC

[Daytr]

Touched 12c! Doh! Must have been demand fueled by the AGM & last drill announcements. Really missed out on this one, but I don't think you can pick that sort of behavior. MLX is moving up steadily with good volume of buyers taking out offers. Think this could be a 30-40c stock in the next 6 months maybe less if the POG gets a push higher. Its tin is a great cash earner & tin could easily move a lot higher. Think they are very well placed with instant gold production & an expansion on the tin as well.

[Bobcat.]

Some gold juniors and other mining stocks I hold are surviving surprisingly well during today's sell off:

SOC, ASL, OZL, DML, AZS, EHL, MLX, CFE, FML, GRY and a few others...but many of course are not. It will be interesting this afternoon to see how much fear of these stocks dropping further tomorrow creates buying opportunities in the last 30mins of trading...and yes, Daytr could be right about a small reversal tonight...or perhaps earlier (China's Manufacturing PMI results are due out this afternoon). I'm picking that the POG will lift at least to test the new resistance of 1265.

Call me an optimist but I think I may be able to trade OK through this. It's not the rout through my portfolio I thought it would be.

Also, after dropping overnight, the Aussie dollar is now recovering well against the Yen (JPY), Swiss Franc (CHF), USD and NZD.

[Bobcat.]

SOC has just announced this morning confirmation of very high grade structures at Mt Adrah (12m @ 58.6g/t Au). Can the grade get much higher?

http://www.asx.com.au/asxpdf/20131121/pdf/42l0lppbrt99lj.pdf

sp holding well but stuck in a trading range of 21 to 22.5c.

[clip]

saw this earlier today (re SOC) surprised it didn't cause a bigger spike. guess the POG is holding it down

[Daytr]

Yeah I think any gold stocks that hold or are up today are doing well & is a good indication the market still sees them as value. SOC is just getting better, I am amased at their initial success rate with the drill program. It will be interesting what the re-assaying delivers.

[Daytr]

I bought back into NST today hoping that last night is a bottoming for gold. Looks pretty cheap at these levels. they are great little producer imo with a very lean, mean management team.

[Daytr]

Also finally got filled on my VXR punt. Its a real punt, but has come off soooo much think its a bargain. They have just topped up the coffers so shouldn't need any more funding for a while. Zinc is one of my favoured base metals but may take some time for LME stock piles to be chewed through. There has been very little investment in zinc exploration since Pasminco fell over & there are few major mine closures imminent.

[Bobcat.]

Does anybody know how much SOC is short of finance for its operations? I tried to glean it from their presentation but either it was hidden, or I'm blind.

Finance problems could account for the sell off down to 19.5 these past couple of days.

Cheers,

BC

[Daytr]

I'm pretty sure they have enough funding for their drill program & they just sold an asset so from memory they are sitting on around $8M in cash

[Daytr]

Sorry BC make that around $1.5M in cash in the parent Its a quite complex company structure. They have JVs which gives them $20M of free exploration through their subsidiaries. They did sell an asset for scrip, but I can't see mention of the funds in the latest presentation I think that is worth about $8M but it was sold by Gossan Hill which they own 87% of. They do need to tidy up the company structure to make it easier to understand. So I don't think they need to fund any exploration from the parent so that $1.5M is just to run the office & pay salaries etc I think. I was tempted to buy some more in the last two days & might still yet.

[Daytr]

It will be interesting to see how the juniors hold up today after last night's carnage in gold. NST down slightly on the open. Freed up a bit of cash yesterday so may look to pick up some more, but think will hold off a few days & see what happens next.

[Bobcat.]

Freed up a bit of cash yesterday so may look to pick up some more, but think will hold off a few days & see what happens next.

Reverse psychology comes into play here, Daytr. When gold advocates like you and me start to think it's definitely going to go lower, that's when the market sentiment is so negative it's time to buy.

Double bottom bounce coming? All it will take for the price of ASX gold digger stocks to rebound is:

1. Australia's interest rate cut today at 4:30pm with a corresponding drop in the AUD
2. US jobs data (nonfarm employment) unfavourable
3. US Home Sales unfavourable

2 and 3 are announced tomorrow night.

Don't be a paper trader. We need to follow the physical economic realities and then be patient, waiting for those realities to kick in, and they will...with a vengence (or rather on the back of desperate moves by the soon-to-be-fearful paper tigers).

I've got some NZX settlements due tomorrow which I'll be taking across to my AUD multi-currency account for a top up on a few digger stocks that IMO look oversold on recent panic.

BC

[Daytr]

I think you are right BC, however you have to consider what is going on in the US futures market when making investment decisions as at the moment it is driving the price. Like it or not. I would rather see a double bottom confirmed than jump the gun & get it wrong. I have a reasonable stake mostly in NST, SOC & a real flyer in VXR but also have some on the sidelines to buy in at some point.

[JBmurc]

Yeah thought about buying some more PGI 4c instead topped up my ROC holding
Also going cheap ... We are certainly very close to all time lows in many PM shares ....

[blueswan]

When will this end, NCM now just getting lower and lower. Strange we dont even see a rotation of Financials to Mining since now both sectors down. I am still holding long positions in BHP and RIO which are still profitable but losses in NCM mounting. All this yeah nah yeah regarding trimming of QE and market reacts on this vacillation as well.

[Daytr]

I would keep well clear of the majors, although at least RIO & BHP have large exposures to iron ore which is doing well. NCM is a dog. Its tempting at the current price because it could get taken over, however I think most of the majors have their own problems so are distracted & the last thing they may be looking is doing a take over. KCN & NCM are vulnerable with their considerable amounts of debt & high production costs. If a producer falls my bet is its one of these two.

[Bobcat.]

It's crazy how some of these quality stocks have been sold down. I've just today topped up my holding of CHN. Aside from the nice prospects at Mogoraib and its Coventry play, cash reserves are $52m which alone equates to around 21c per share! Even if it's liquidated (which I don't for a minute believe it will be) I'll be well in the money having just bought in at 13c.

There are some great bargains out there amongst the gold juniors and mid sized diggers, somewhat independent of the price of gold.

Another example is EVN which is producing above guidance (393k for 2013), has good free operating cash flow ($10.3m), an healthy cash position of $3.7m, and improving AISC (now $1100AUD/oz). Traders seem to have got worried about the AISC still running at just a couple of hundred $/oz under spot price in a bearish market but what many have overlooked is that the company runs a hedge book curently with 380koz hedged at $1590 AUD! With production running at 100k per quarter, this means they are well in the money until at least August next year regardless of the price of gold!

..and there are several other underpriced digger stocks worth a good look in this oversold market.

Discl: have topped up both EVN and CHN this week.

[Daytr]

NST released some fantastic drill results today. Was up 10% at one stage but now up a poxy 6% haha. This baby is going to rocket again me thinks.
Significant results from Titan include (uncut):
? 0.2m @ 687.0gpt gold 488mRL
? 0.4m @ 103.0gpt gold 436mRL
? 3.0m @ 12.6gpt gold 380mRL
? 2.4m @ 8.0gpt gold 396mRL
? 1.0m @ 7.7gpt gold 370mRL
? Significant results from Voyager 1 include (uncut):
? 2.1 m @ 85.0gpt gold (true width 2.0m) 503mRL UZ
? 0.9 m @ 44.5gpt gold (true width 0.8m) 271mRL LZ
? 5.1 m @ 31.7gpt gold (true width 2.5m) 413mRL UZ
? 1.5 m @ 16.5gpt gold (true width 1.4m) 470mRL UZ
? 2.4 m @ 16.3gpt gold (true width 1.1m) 365mRL UZ
? 2.2 m @ 15.1gpt gold (true width 2.0m) 436mRL UZ
? 7.1 m @ 12.3gpt gold (true width 4.0m) 481mRL UZ
? 5.7 m @ 11.0gpt gold (true width 1.5m) 365mRL UZ
? 6.7 m @ 10.0gpt gold (true width 3.0m) 418mRL UZ
? 17.6m @ 8.8gpt gold (true width 14.9m) 430mRL UZ
? Significant results from Voyager 2 include (uncut):
? 0.4 m @ 132.0gpt gold (true width 0.3m) 502mRL LZ
? 0.8 m @ 37.4gpt gold (true width 0.8m) 472mRL LZ
? 0.8 m @ 25.3gpt gold (true width 0.7m) 482mRL UZ2
? 3.7 m @ 21.3gpt gold (true width 1.4m) 486mRL LZ
? 4.6 m @ 20.4gpt gold (true width 3.5m) 482mRL LZ
? 3.2 m @ 19.8gpt gold (true width 1.0m) 515mRL LZ
? 2.0 m @ 16.4gpt gold (true width 1.5m) 516mRL LZ
? 6.4 m @ 11.1gpt gold (true width 2.2m) 427mRL LZhttp://www.sharetrader.co.nz/images/share.gif (http://www.sharetrader.co.nz/post_single.asp?fid=1&msgid=12658954&v=300&pubid=ra-5204535253dfaa05)

[Daytr]

Sold out of my NST holding on yesterday's spike. Bot more SOC at 15.5 & 16c. Think its at a pretty attractive level. Wouldn't be surprised to see it back in the mid 20s on the next drill results if the past is anything to go by.

[Daytr]

Like the look of what VXR are doing as well. Got out of these at 2.4c after trading in & out a few times about 6 months ago. Could tell they were going into consolidation mode & traded right back to half a cent recently where I picked some up. They are now back drilling & promoting the stock. Wouldn't be surprised to see this back over 2c & even back to 4c at some stage over the next few months. Nice grades in the orebody, just nee to extend it to warrant the capex.

[Daytr]

Yeah I saw that Moosie. Can't get excited about NTL though. When they talk about producing 285 ounces a month! Sheesh! I thought they must have left the k off the end! Its ridiculously small. Perhaps with this deal they can actually make a mine of it. Think mining in NZ is generally too politically & environmentally risky. Much rather invest in Aussie mining stocks.

[Bobcat.]

Bot more SOC at 15.5 & 16c. Think its at a pretty attractive level. Wouldn't be surprised to see it back in the mid 20s on the next drill results if the past is anything to go by.

Funny that - I also had SOC bids at 15.5 and 16 which got hit a couple of days ago. My guess is it's gone that low due to nervousness around funding. I'll sit and hold what I have now for at least a couple of months at an average cost of 18c. I funded these with a sale on SCI which spiked to take out a cheeky offer I had sitting on market at 8.7c.

Given their volatility, there are profitable short term plays on some of these juniors.

My target buys for early next week include PGI, BKY, AZS, EHL, COK, MLX, VXR and DML.

Target sells include ASL and NTL (after about three more days of price lift...trading these on their peaks and troughs).

BC

[Daytr]

SOC are pretty well funded through their JVs so I can't see them needing more cash for a while. Just the nature of the beast I think, these stocks are so illiquid they will always go lower & higher than you would anticipate. The trick is to be patient. Next lot of drill results shouldn't be too far away so as long as they are similar to previous we should see it back over 20c & hopefully toward previous highs around 24c or higher.


Funny that - I also had SOC bids at 15.5 and 16 which got hit a couple of days ago. My guess is it's gone that low due to nervousness around und funding. I'll sit and hold what I have now for at least a couple of months at an average cost of 18c. I funded these with a sale on SCI which spiked to take out a cheeky offer I had sitting on market at 8.7c.

Given their volatility, there are profitable short term plays on some of these juniors.

My target buys for early next week include PGI, BKY, AZS, EHL, COK, MLX, VXR and DML.

Target sells include ASL and NTL (after about three more days of price lift...trading these on their peaks and troughs).

BC

[JBmurc]

Funny that - I also had SOC bids at 15.5 and 16 which got hit a couple of days ago. My guess is it's gone that low due to nervousness around funding. I'll sit and hold what I have now for at least a couple of months at an average cost of 18c. I funded these with a sale on SCI which spiked to take out a cheeky offer I had sitting on market at 8.7c.

Given their volatility, there are profitable short term plays on some of these juniors.

My target buys for early next week include PGI, BKY, AZS, EHL, COK, MLX, VXR and DML.

Target sells include ASL and NTL (after about three more days of price lift...trading these on their peaks and troughs).

BC

Yeah no news has been a real killer of PGI of late that and the general sentiment towards PM miners at present...

I can see PGi spiking 50% on a good ann on targets being reached..I don't think the market understands PGI are now getting $1470oz+ AUD for their Gold thanks to the hedging and weakening AUD/USD ...sadly the silver is unhedged

[Daytr]

SOC just announced $4M of further funding through a convertible. Pretty attractive deal compared to what other juniors are getting at the moment.

[Bobcat.]

SOC just announced $4M of further funding through a convertible. Pretty attractive deal compared to what other juniors are getting at the moment.

Yes, it is good news for SOC but I'm surprised it's not been met with more buyer interest -- still trading flat at 16.5c.

Re PGI, JBMurc - I remember you sold out around 6c to buy in again lower - are you again a holder?

[Daytr]

SOC will trade on drill results, not things like this even though it is good news. Basically means they wont need to tap shareholders for funds for quite some time to come. Exploration funded through JVs & this will keep the office running basically. Next drill results shouldn't be far away.

[JBmurc]

Yes, it is good news for SOC but I'm surprised it's not been met with more buyer interest -- still trading flat at 16.5c.

Re PGI, JBMurc - I remember you sold out around 6c to buy in again lower - are you again a holder?

I only sold just over half my holding round 6c still got a few ..wish I had sold the lot the way the market has treated them of late ,,, I would have been stoked to been buying now

Much the same for SOC sold a good amount at their recent high to be temped back not much lower and to now see them at stupid low levels I never dreamed would go ...

[Bobcat.]

Daytr,
Your MLX and NST are doing well today. I've had them on my watchlist for a couple of weeks now but instead invested in Rox Resources (RXL), which I have wanted for a while and the timing Friday seemed good (after announcing two nickel sulphide discoveries and seeing the sp hover around the company's SPP issue price of 3.2c).

Both their Camelwood and Cannonball prospects look very promising, and with about $3m in cash post-SPP, they are well positioned to operate without much financial impediment.

Your thoughts?

http://www.asx.com.au/asxpdf/20131218/pdf/42lpgl2490q12f.pdf

[Daytr]

I'm out of both at the moment. Was looking at getting back into NST but the announcement beat me this morning. Will wait until the heat comes out of them again & get back in.

RXL seem cheap enough I just don't like the prospects for the nickel price for some time to come. Nickel is always tricky to process & capex is generally high. With all the pig iron around I can't see the price of nickel back above say $16k/ton for some time so hard to get excited about that one I'm afraid.

[Daytr]

Yeah they are having great success with the drill bit!

[JBmurc]

looking forward to PGI DEC Qtr results.... market not valuing PGI gold hedge at all ..

what you reckon guys I'm no expert on hedging but does sound like PGI has some downside protection on the further falling Gold price (if not actually pay off all their debt quick smart)...also PGI always predicted to produce Gold eqif for round $650per oz now recoveries haven't been as good as hoping but with fine tuning of late pushing recoveries much higher costs must be coming down ...PGI could well be the turn-round story of 2014 IMHO gold falls to $900 PGI closes out hedge for enough money to fully pay of all debts and some ...and continues to produce Gold eqif for a solid profit

--post from speculator on HC---
I think the hedge that PGI hold is now becoming a bit of a trade of sorts, as in, buyers know that if the POG drops massively, PGI will be well within its rights to fill the hedge, wipe of its debt and be sitting on a functioning gold producing plant while, lets be honest, the vast majority of gold stocks will simply go belly up due to their costs being so high.

I think the hedge still has approx 100k ounces to be filled, with a price of $1320, at current POG, sold, it would provide PGI with about $10.2 million, which of course, would not be enough to pay off the loan, but if gold does drop further, I mean really drop, the viability of filling the hedge becomes a reality. i.e, at $1000 US per ounce, we are looking at $32 million, at $900 US, we would have $42 million.

[Daytr]

JB, is that an AUD gold hedge or USD hedge?

VXR I picked up at half a cent has got some buyers this morning, think something up. No announcement yet. They seem to be getting back on track & I think will be back over 2c before long.

[JBmurc]

JB, is that an AUD gold hedge or USD hedge?

VXR I picked up at half a cent has got some buyers this morning, think something up. No announcement yet. They seem to be getting back on track & I think will be back over 2c before long.

USD I know going of AUD/USD cross rates the hedge worked out round $1470oz AUD

[Daytr]

So lets go people.
Pick your best gold stock for 2014 same as I'm doing on HC.

Pick the best performing gold stock for the end of 2014 in percentage terms.

Price will be compared from the close on 31st Dec 2013 compared to the close on 31 Dec 2014.

Rules.

1) Stock must be ASX listed.
2) Only one pick per participant.
3) No reason or commentary to be entered into otherwise risk disqualification.
4) Just post the stock code, nothing else required.
5) Picks close as at midnight 31 Dec 2013 AEST.

My pic is SOC

[Bobcat.]

So lets go people.
Pick your best gold stock for 2014 same as I'm doing on HC.

Pick the best performing gold stock for the end of 2014 in percentage terms.

Price will be compared from the close on 31st Dec 2013 compared to the close on 31 Dec 2014.

Rules.

1) Stock must be ASX listed.
2) Only one pick per participant.
3) No reason or commentary to be entered into otherwise risk disqualification.
4) Just post the stock code, nothing else required.
5) Picks close as at midnight 31 Dec 2013 AEST.

My pic is SOC

Divi's included?

[Daytr]

Nope gets to be too much work

[Bobcat.]

I'm tossing up between OGC, NTL and EVN...

I've got a soft spot for Sth Island companies and so, OGC it is. I'm picking its sp to be a little over $4 by 2014's year-end. Trading to it.

[JBmurc]

Pick your best gold stock for 2014 same as I'm doing on HC.

Pick the best performing gold stock for the end of 2014 in percentage terms.

Price will be compared from the close on 31st Dec 2013 compared to the close on 31 Dec 2014.
-------------------------------

--PGI .my pick. will finally get it new tech plant to work the way S/H hoped ...hedging will protect downside

[Lizard]

Any thoughts on Tribune (TBR)? Not my area of expertise, but looked interesting. I'll have it for my pick anyway :)

[Joshuatree]

ROL slowly proving up a monster of Gold and other metals.

[airedale]

I like the idea: 1 shot at the bulls eye.
My pick : GOR

[Daytr]

Any thoughts on Tribune (TBR)? Not my area of expertise, but looked interesting. I'll have it for my pick anyway :)

Looks interesting & they are finding some good grade. Only had a quick look, but with an MC of over $100M looks pretty fairly valued for the stage they are at imo.

[Daytr]

Last chance to get your stock picks in !

[Bobcat.]

Daytr,
Since you went ahead on my rec and bought TRY at a good price (up 6% since then), I thought it only proper to do the same off one of yours.

I purchased a small parcel of WAF today @14c. All I really had to go on was what I read on their Web site and in their lastest cashflow report. Also, their chart looks timely for a buy (rising RSI, good support at 12.5c, etc). Before I decide whether or not to buy more, what can you tell me about its management, prospects and track record?

Send me a private message if you prefer.

Cheers,

BC

[Corporate]

Jeez guys gold stocks are continuing to get thumbed. Does anyone have a valuation on TRY? This looks like an obvious buy when the trend reverses.

as for a gold stock I'll take NCM

[Daytr]

Gold stock picks for 2014. We obviously had a good start yesterday with gold stocks out of the blocks for the 1st trading day of 2014. Long may it continue ! Good luck everyone & happy trading!



Best Stock NZ
Name


SOC
Daytr


OGC
bobcat


PGI
JBMurc


TBR
Lizard


ROL
Joshuatree


GOR
airedale


NCM
Corporate

[Daytr]

Yep I think we may have seen a bottom for Troy Resources & I agree seems very undervalued. I'm aiming for $1.40ish but could get a premium to that if POG gets its mojo back.


Jeez guys gold stocks are continuing to get thumbed. Does anyone have a valuation on TRY? This looks like an obvious buy when the trend reverses.

as for a gold stock I'll take NCM

[Daytr]

Just bought back into ALK. Always liked these guys, I have known Ian Chalmers the MD for 12-15 years. Absolutely lovely bloke. Anyway first production should now only be weeks away & they still have plenty of cash at bank.

[Daytr]

Some fantastic results released by PMR today which is majority owned by SOC. No bang for their buck on this today, which is surprising however it must add significant value to SOC.

Just part of the announcement
Promising Results – Initial Halls Peak Drilling

• PMR DDH HP 026 – First of six holes completed37.2 metres at an average grade of 8.7% zinc, 3.0% lead,
1.4% copper and 85 g/t (2.8 oz/t) silver, over 4 bands
Including 10.5 metres at an average grade of 9.81%
zinc, 5.63% lead, 2.67% copper and 196 g/t (6.3
oz/t) silver
Including 1.48 metres (from 1.62 to 3.1m)
at an average grade of 19.2% zinc, 10.7%
lead, 5.66% copper and 509 g/t (6.3 oz/t)
silver

[JBmurc]

Some fantastic results released by PMR today which is majority owned by SOC. No bang for their buck on this today, which is surprising however it must add significant value to SOC.

Just part of the announcement
Promising Results – Initial Halls Peak Drilling

• PMR DDH HP 026 – First of six holes completed37.2 metres at an average grade of 8.7% zinc, 3.0% lead,
1.4% copper and 85 g/t (2.8 oz/t) silver, over 4 bands
Including 10.5 metres at an average grade of 9.81%
zinc, 5.63% lead, 2.67% copper and 196 g/t (6.3
oz/t) silver
Including 1.48 metres (from 1.62 to 3.1m)
at an average grade of 19.2% zinc, 10.7%
lead, 5.66% copper and 509 g/t (6.3 oz/t)
silver


yeah just brought another chunk of SOC @16c

[Daytr]

Hoping we see some announcement out of SOC soon on their own drilling as it was disappointing they didn't release these results under the SOC banner as well as they were stellar imo & would have moved the SP.

[Daytr]

Just posted this on HC re Alkane (ALK). I have a small stake, thinking of adding to it.

Lets have a very simplistic look at the market valuation of ALK versus its asset backing.

Market Cap currently circa $130M

Cash as at 30 Sep $72M
No debt.
Tomingley 60k toz pa gold project about to be commissioned.
2nd resource at Caloma could extend mine life & increase production.
Then the big prize the Dubbo Zirconia Project.

At $130M market cap the market is placing around $80M valuation on Tomingley & no value on the rare earths or visa versa.

ALK imo is now one of the most under valued plays around.

[JBmurc]

Hoping we see some announcement out of SOC soon on their own drilling as it was disappointing they didn't release these results under the SOC banner as well as they were stellar imo & would have moved the SP.

More pain for us SOC holdings SP wise be great to see a major buying coming on market and soaking up these weak hands ...geez to think I sold out at 24.5c should have stayed out till now by the looks of it...

[Daytr]

JB, I think SOC is suffering a little as hot money is moving to producers as the POG looks a little better. The PMR results were absolute stunners & I think we would have seen a spike in SOC if released under the SOC banner. We should see some more results shortly so hopefully we can get it bqack in the 20s. We are now back to my buy back in levels!