42 Below - Beyond the IPO...

[KJ]

Prospectus states that Contract Bottling Co (division of NZ wines and Spirits)has exclusive rights to manufacture and bottle 42B products-runs for 3 yrs to Sept 2006.

[thereslifeafter87]

I'm gonna run against the grain and say that this company is still wayyyyy too pricey for possible earnings returns. Max upside is maybe 30% a year. And that is MAX upside, with a large possibility of downside.
If they really take off a few years from now, then upside may increase.

[marinesalvor]

vodka cos cant ever really run out of product unlike wine cos (grapes are finite) vodka production is pretty industrial and you can outsource it to almost anyone

[Signal]

"marinesalvor" - I assume there is a "recipe" that can be easily replicated by other contracted distillers provide the same raw materials are used. Continued delivery of a quality product is obviously essential - FTB's branding and market positioning is its strength and the core of it's business model - that may well lead consumers to the product, coming back for a repeat experience because of the taste and having them take ownership of the brand is where the leverage comes in, they seem to have had positive comments to date.

"thereslifeafter87" - can you elaborate on your comments, a little too much reading between the lines for me to understand what you are saying.

Do you mean the share price only has 30% upside? If so, are you referring to a price target from current levels ie. 60 to 80 cents?

Or is that referring to earnings? If you mean earnings then I suspect you are significantly underestimating the potential.
Would appreciate your comments.

[marinesalvor]

yes signal- very easy to upscale industrial production - Indpendent Liquor could be signed as an additional supplier and triple production without even raising a sweat

[The Doctor]

you long term holders will be lucky to get your money back.If this product which has no 'unique selling point' makes a dent in international liquor giants market share they will either take it out or crush it with line extensions and 'copycat' packaging and marketing with the massive resources at their disposal.The vodka market is expanding faster than 'brown' spirits so market share is not being lost by major players from this 'cottage industry'.

[marinesalvor]

very incoherent Doc - I guess you dont really understand niches or branding

[Signal]

OK "The Doctor", I can only assume you hold the same views on NZ wine and the majoriy of our primary producers and manufacturers which would have similar USP's (none in your view).

If the executives of any manufacturer taking any NZ product to the global market had a similar defeatist attitude, then I'd be very concerned.

If your expectation is that FTB is about to (or indead must) become an international liquor giant to be viable, then your expectations are too high, and in my opinion, incorrect. "marinesalvor" is right, and I just like the style of FTB's approach to marketing and positioning, I think it has found a position in the domestic target market and is doing the same offshore. I for one hope they do well (and not solely because I hold their shares).

Having returned to this website after several years there seems to me to be a distinct lack of commentary about where people actually think share prices are tracking. Let's get a bit more specific people! I take it that "The Doctor" sees sub 50 cents on the horizon because eventually FTB will fail to deliver on the expectations of its current shareholders.

There are 1,000's or reasons "why" a share price is moving, surely we should be focussed on being on the right side of that movement and being part of it, whatever the reason.

Seemingly "moral" debates I've read on some parts of this website about whether a share price is justified by it's fundamentals and earnings is essentially irrelevent to my buy/sell decision. At the end of the day it simply comes down to supply and demand. Trying to determine what is, or will, drive that supply/demand balance is far to complicated for me to try to understand. I'm just buying into an uptrending share price and don't feel any "moral" connection to what others may feel is an unjustified share price. We each accept responsibility for our own investments, if someone choses to buy when I'm the seller that is their decision, I don't feel that I have to satisfy myself that I am leaving some value for them (they make their own assessment of that).

BTW - First NZ (Insto' broker) have just moved their bid to 61 and taken out sellers at that level. More people are becoming interested in this stock, meaning more demand resulting in price pressure to secure stock. As long as that continues I'm a holder of the head shares.

[spector]

quote:Originally posted by The Doctor

you long term holders will be lucky to get your money back.



well we all seem to be in healthy profit at the moment... but thanks for your concern.:)

[spector]

quote:Originally posted by The Doctor

If this product which has no 'unique selling point' makes a dent in international liquor giants market share they will either take it out or crush it with line extensions


Or the liquor giant could form an alliance with 42 BELOW and then just take a cut while at the same time growing the 42 brand. Which is what Fosters did yesterday and last month. Try and keep up Doc.

[thereslifeafter87]

Signal,
I was referring to maximum growth in SP per year for the next five years or so.

See my comments earlier in the thread. I did an analysis based on FTB's valuation compared to the point at which they will break even.

[Placebo]

I'll tell you my strategy for buying into the IPO Doc. Then you can tell me what an idiot I've been ;)

As a start-up this small business had exponential sales growth (but high marketing costs). Forecast revenues predicted break-even within (I think) 3 years. This has since moved forward (sales ahead of forecast). It offered a niche entry to a crowded market but had already positioned itself cleverly and was making some headway. Since then it has developed further products (flavoured vodka including some not made by others, feijoa, manuka honey, passionfruit) that underline it as an innovator.
Risks were:
Failure to match sales forecast = longer time to reach breakeven; worst case scenario it would fail miserably, in which case the principals would lose hugely, I would only lose a little.
Sales take off: Company thrives, I'm in the money
Sales take off huge: Along comes Smirnoff and buys them out for $2 a share. Ka-ching!!

[The Doctor]

re 'niches and branding'.....these are long term investments....fashion and fads change quickly,you can't build a brand of integrity overnite ,no matter how enamoured you are with clever ads.Wine and Vodka...chalk and cheese...!terrain,climate,varietals(NZ Sauvignon Blanc,Oz Shiraz)if you can't figure that out try carrot juice with your vodka.Fosters alliance is a distribution one,p.s they don't produce vodka.

PLACEBO $2.00 not enough Now 2 dozen bottles per share that might be an ideah

[spector]

quote:Originally posted by The Doctor

re 'niches and branding'.....these are long term investments....fashion and fads change quickly,you can't build a brand of integrity overnite ,no matter how enamoured you are with clever ads.Wine and Vodka...chalk and cheese...!terrain,climate,varietals(NZ Sauvignon Blanc,Oz Shiraz)if you can't figure that out try carrot juice with your vodka.Fosters alliance is a distribution one,p.s they don't produce vodka.


Take all the emotion out of the 42 debate DOC and just think about it... Carlton United Breweries (Fosters, VB, Crown, Carlton, Cascade) must have hundreds if not thousands of reps. All these reps now only have 1 premium vodka in their portfolio. They have no option but to push 42. When you consider the amount of bars/clubs that have an alignment with CUB(they take CUB's stock over another brewery, usually in exchange for advertising revenue/support for events ) then surely you have to see this as a huge positive for the company.

CUB aren't doing this as a favour to 42. Their motivation will be purely profit based.

[The Doctor]

hey I wish you guys well....it is a worry when Placebo says 'worst case scenario...the principals..lose a bundle'....!?..hope you don't wind up with a 'hangover' but believe this Absolut and co do not sit by idle while 'upstarts' wittle away market share.Lion and DB made a tactical error here when independent liquor 'outflanked' them in a new category...'RTD'S ,expanded the market and then attacked every price point in the packaged beer market.Michael Erceg take a bow..probably NZ's richest man next to Graeme Hart who knows a 'bargain' when he sees one and has the most astute 'lieutenant' in Australasia.

[nottiger]

Interesting discussion

I think we should be celebrating that this new issue is over delivering on their prospectus

42Below will have set backs but the signs are they are solid and will be a great long term investment

Great stuff Geoff et al!

[Oracle]

And there costs could be less than the industry average.

Cos' you would not pay a Bloke, as much as a manager!

[mikescott]

quote:Originally posted by Placebo

I'll tell you my strategy for buying into the IPO Doc. Then you can tell me what an idiot I've been ;)

As a start-up this small business had exponential sales growth (but high marketing costs). Forecast revenues predicted break-even within (I think) 3 years. This has since moved forward (sales ahead of forecast). It offered a niche entry to a crowded market but had already positioned itself cleverly and was making some headway. Since then it has developed further products (flavoured vodka including some not made by others, feijoa, manuka honey, passionfruit) that underline it as an innovator.
Risks were:
Failure to match sales forecast = longer time to reach breakeven; worst case scenario it would fail miserably, in which case the principals would lose hugely, I would only lose a little.
Sales take off: Company thrives, I'm in the money
Sales take off huge: Along comes Smirnoff and buys them out for $2 a share. Ka-chingo!!

Kachingo indeed! :D:D

[marinesalvor]

sorry minder I dont seem to remember Kachingo selling effectively in the USA, building a distribution agreement with a major industry player, meeting propectus growth forecasts....

but nice to have you back - missed your unique viewpoints

[nottiger]

quote:Originally posted by minder


quote:
Sales take off huge: Along comes Smirnoff and buys them out for $2 a share. Ka-chingo!!

Kachingo indeed! :D:D


(Of course kachingo itself went kadingo)

I would think the big international liquor companies are already noticing this little upstart, and some offer is likely in the 2 year time frame - No idea really:D but there is such a history of acquisitive growth in this industry that it seems inevitable??

Cheers[:o)]Simon

Disclosure - have never tried the stuff!

[Bubble Boy]

quote:Originally posted by marinesalvor

sorry minder I dont seem to remember Kachingo selling effectively in the USA, building a distribution agreement with a major industry player, meeting propectus growth forecasts....



From memory Kachingo had distribution aggrements with industry players such as Woolworths, BP, Big Fresh and Super Liquor. At one point it was the most recognised brand in TV advertising.

Disc.: Dont drink vodka and dont own shares in FTB. BB likes the Bubbles.

[Placebo]

Okay, okay, I walked into that one [B)]

The interesting thing about FTB is how much difficulty "the market" has in valuing a brand. FTB will never have a lot in terms of tangible assets. It outsources production (so doesn't own factories and land); its distribution is handled by 3rd parties (CUB etc); even the bottles are sourced. So the only thing that can be valued are its forward revenues and intangibles like branding and goodwill. That's certainly where the controversy has been (on ST) about this, the Doc is reiterating this.

But how do you value a brand? Marketing smoke and mirrors, a bunch of mumbo-jumbo or a real item of value?

I guess the test is to ask what Coca Cola or Levis would be without their brands. Or at the extreme end, Bentley or Prada. Not that I'm saying FTB is in that category; but it is a company that will be valued on the strength of its brand, rather than on the value of its tangible assets. And that will always make it misunderstood.

[nottiger]

quote:Originally posted by Placebo

Okay, okay, I walked into that one [B)]

But how do you value a brand? Marketing smoke and mirrors, a bunch of mumbo-jumbo or a real item of value?

I guess the test is to ask what Coca Cola or Levis would be without their brands. Or at the extreme end, Bentley or Prada.

A thing I have come to understand about brands is that the stronger a brand is the less able it is to move to another category

so........Coca Cola is a great brand and Bentley is great brand

Would you buy a Coca Cola car or a Bentley soft drink?

Al Ries would say these strong brands have a narrow focus - to compete with them you need to narrow teh focus even more

So is there a market for a bentley type car ofr say Women?
Is there a market for a Coca Cola type drink brand for vegetarians?

[Placebo]

Nottiger: Well Coke address this by having other brands within their area of expertise (drinks). E.g. Sprite, Fanta, Powerade, whatever their sports water's called (such a strong brand I can't remember it). I guess the lesson from Coke is you don't dilute your brand by dishing it out to other products that aren't linked with a `core' product. So Coke is still several products (all cola-based, diet, vanilla, lime, probably chocolate next), but you wouldn't have Coke lemonade, or Coke sports drink. Just doesn't work.

There is a Bentley for women: It's called a Golf. Bentley is owned by Volkswagen, so the Continental GT could quite happily wear a VW badge, but it then wouldn't command a massive premium. Again, brand dilution (or more accurately, using a premium brand to extract additional value).

Branding to me is all about imagery, style, core values; when I think Coke, I see red, the white stripe, black liquid, the bottle shape, and as a sucker for their promotion I associate it with fun and outdoor lifestyle.

By the same token, you can be destroyed by your brand. Would you call your start-up Enron??

[The Doctor]

no doubt you will then be surprised to learn that Coca Cola have as you say 'diluted' their legendary 'fanta'(orange)brand...and now have raspberry,lime,pineapple etc...'fanta'!

[johna]

Strong brands are not necessarily tied to narrow product ranges..

What about Virgin? Mitsubishi? Yamaha?

[nottiger]

quote:Originally posted by johna

Strong brands are not necessarily tied to narrow product ranges..

What about Virgin? Mitsubishi? Yamaha?


Fair call!:)

But I think these are exceptions rather than the rule

Once established a big company can sometimes take their brand a few diferent ways and corporate egos usually are happy with line extension - Generally though a new brand is best - Proctor and Gambles approach

[mikescott]

quote:Originally posted by Placebo

I'll tell you my strategy for buying into the IPO Doc. Then you can tell me what an idiot I've been ;)

As a start-up this small business had exponential sales growth (but high marketing costs). Forecast revenues predicted break-even within (I think) 3 years. This has since moved forward (sales ahead of forecast). It offered a niche entry to a crowded market but had already positioned itself cleverly and was making some headway. Since then it has developed further products (flavoured vodka including some not made by others, feijoa, manuka honey, passionfruit) that underline it as an innovator.
Risks were:
Failure to match sales forecast = longer time to reach breakeven; worst case scenario it would fail miserably, in which case the principals would lose hugely, I would only lose a little.Sales take off: Company thrives, I'm in the money
Sales take off huge: Along comes Smirnoff and buys them out for $2 a share. Ka-ching!!


How can the principals lose hugely? They paid $2m for 75% of the company and the rest of you paid $15m for 25%!!!![:p][:p]

One of the principals, Shane McKillen, has been paid US$1.3 millions already for FTB's own distribution contract in the US so how can he ever lose from here?

And meanwhile, there's great entertainment and living expenses being paid for by FTB etc.

No, the principals are in an absolute no-lose situation. :D

[blackcap]

I note that 42 Below was mentioned as "the NZ vodka" on the Target program on tonight by TV 3.

Good to see the brand out there.

[nottiger]

quote:Originally posted by minder

How can the principals lose hugely? They paid $2m for 75% of the company and the rest of you paid $15m for 25%!!!![:p][:p]

And meanwhile, there's great entertainment and living expenses being paid for by FTB etc.

No, the principals are in an absolute no-lose situation. :D


With respect Minder you are considering only money here - How much have most people like Geoff Ross put in??? - A lot more than just money - How about time - How about Risk - how about Stress?

We all know that entrepreneurship is about risk - the early cash investors risk a lot more - the founders generally risk a lot of their time and energy, and all teh cash equity they have - that's real

I agree that the issue was overpriced - but it is way too simple to say the pricipals just put in $2M[8D]

[spector]

anyone want to sell me their overpriced 42 BELOW shares for the overpriced issue cost of 50 cents each?:)

[spector]

quote:Originally posted by blackcap

I note that 42 Below was mentioned as "the NZ vodka" on the Target program on tonight by TV 3.

Good to see the brand out there.


cool[8D] ... what was the program about Blackcap?

[clearasmud]

quote:Originally posted by spector

anyone want to sell me their overpriced 42 BELOW shares for the overpriced issue cost of 50 cents each?:)


Congratulations Guys on perservering with these.

[mikescott]

quote:Originally posted by nottiger


quote:Originally posted by minder

How can the principals lose hugely? They paid $2m for 75% of the company and the rest of you paid $15m for 25%!!!![:p][:p]

And meanwhile, there's great entertainment and living expenses being paid for by FTB etc.

No, the principals are in an absolute no-lose situation. :D


With respect Minder you are considering only money here - How much have most people like Geoff Ross put in??? - A lot more than just money - How about time - How about Risk - how about Stress?

Don't you worry about people like Geoff Ross - he, along with the other executives and principals, are paid very handsomely (in salaries and perks) for managing the company. Are you suggesting that he has been working at FTB for love and fresh air? :D:D:D

We all know that entrepreneurship is about risk - the early cash investors risk a lot more - the founders generally risk a lot of their time and energy, and all teh cash equity they have - that's real.

$2m for 75% and others pay $15m for 25% - great risk/return, don't you agree?

I agree that the issue was overpriced - but it is way too simple to say the pricipals just put in $2M[8D]

No - it's THAT simple.


I notice you edited out the part about Shane McKillen scoring US$1.3m for selling FTB's US distribution contract back to itself. Any particular reason? [^]

[Signal]

Minder - perhaps its time for you to move on from the emotional attachment to the past history of this stock and focus on the future direction of its share price?

If it's envy or jealousy that the FTB founders have been able to create value (that you don't recognise, and that's fair enough) but it's value and potential that others do have an understand of (or atleast an expectation or perception of it). I don't claim to understand it but I can't ignore the share price trend. Demand is significantly exceeding supply at present, until that balance point changes then those who want to own a stake in this business are going to have to bid higher to accumulate a holding.

I would not be surprised if we couldn't find some point in the history of EVERY listed stock when we could individually say it was over valued in terms of its future share price - and we would all have differing views on that. I accept that you think that FTB's current share price should be significant less that $0.50 but the reality is that the market is going in the opposite direction to that (at the moment).

Continuing to hark back to the listing valuation of FTB seems pointless to me. Just because Baycorp was once nearly $18 doesn't mean that it's share price can't now rise from $3.50 to $4.00 or in fact to $19 in the future (I'm not suggesting it will - just an example).

Who has the most to gain from the success of FTB? I would have thought the founders who still hold more than 73% of the company with no way to currently realise that value. If I were them I would be doing my best to make a success of the business. Rather, you imply they have no interest other than "milking" the company for a few hundred thousand a year salary and "perks" as you put it. I suspect they value their time more highly than that and would be insulted if you were to suggest that to them personally (implying it publicly in this forum is quite offensive in itself in my opinion). Your views on that sound like the attitude of an employee and not someone who has taken the risks and poured their entire energy into building and owning a business. If you've never worked for the "love" of your businesses then I suspect it is falling short of its potential.

[nottiger]

quote:Originally posted by minder

[quote]Originally posted by nottiger

[quote]Originally posted by minder


I notice you edited out the part about Shane McKillen scoring US$1.3m for selling FTB's US distribution contract back to itself. Any particular reason? [^]




No reason really Minder - I understand it was clear? in the prospectus about this arrangement -perhaps not the 1.3M - I suppose his USA investment is risk too - so did Shane risk a pile himself in the USA - I don't know enough here[?]

Simon

[nottiger]

quote:Originally posted by Signal

Minder - perhaps its time for you to move on from the emotional attachment to the past history of this stock and focus on the future direction of its share price?

If it's envy or jealousy that the FTB founders have been able to create value (that you don't recognise, and that's fair enough) but it's value and potential that others do have an understand of (or atleast an expectation or perception of it). I don't claim to understand it but I can't ignore the share price trend. Demand is significantly exceeding supply at present, until that balance point changes then those who want to own a stake in this business are going to have to bid higher to accumulate a holding.

I would not be surprised if we couldn't find some point in the history of EVERY listed stock when we could individually say it was over valued in terms of its future share price - and we would all have differing views on that. I accept that you think that FTB's current share price should be significant less that $0.50 but the reality is that the market is going in the opposite direction to that (at the moment).

Continuing to hark back to the listing valuation of FTB seems pointless to me. Just because Baycorp was once nearly $18 doesn't mean that it's share price can't now rise from $3.50 to $4.00 or in fact to $19 in the future (I'm not suggesting it will - just an example).

Who has the most to gain from the success of FTB? I would have thought the founders who still hold more than 73% of the company with no way to currently realise that value. If I were them I would be doing my best to make a success of the business. Rather, you imply they have no interest other than "milking" the company for a few hundred thousand a year salary and "perks" as you put it. I suspect they value their time more highly than that and would be insulted if you were to suggest that to them personally (implying it publicly in this forum is quite offensive in itself in my opinion). Your views on that sound like the attitude of an employee and not someone who has taken the risks and poured their entire energy into building and owning a business. If you've never worked for the "love" of your businesses then I suspect it is falling short of its potential.


ditto![8D]

[Signal]

Hello Nottiger, thanks for your email.

Sorry, you lost me with the George H thing (a previous poster?). I suspect though you are getting a picture of the type of person I am and my views on business, creating value, risk/reward and attitude (the defining factor).

Signal

[mikescott]

Usual emotional responses to factual rebuttal of fools-to-be assertions. Pathetic. [^][^][^]

Next Signal will be accusing me of being envious about the wealth and value created by Eric Watson in RMG, Strathmore, Kachingo. :D

[Signal]

I don't know all of Eric Watson's private and public business interests but I suspect you are doing him a little injustice by being so selective. Are you comfortable that you have reasonably assessed Eric Watson's track record for creating wealth? I can only assume that you measure this against your own achievements and success rate.

Have you really never fallen short of meeting your own aspirations with any of your businesses or investments Minder? Very few people would meet your expectations of entreprenuers, new enterprises and the challenges of creating something valuable. I would suggest that your expectations are not realistic.

Actually you are right, I agree with you, you do sound envious when you attack only the failures of someone such as Eric Watson. I suspect you probably believe that Eric enjoyed those failures and in fact orchistrated them.

[mikescott]

Signal, you are revealing more of yourself so please to continue. :D

[Signal]

Happy to Minder but prefer to focus on commenting on the future share price of FTB.

It's still not clear to me:
- why you see the share price significantly below $0.50.
- why you label anyone with the opposite view a "fool" - where did that come from?
- why you can see only negatives and impending failure, it almost comes across as a desire for that to happen.

What would the share price have to do for you to re-assess your view on FTB?

[mikescott]

Signal, the fool is a play on FTB - fool-to-be. Don't be so crusty like the rest of the fools-to-be, have a bit of fun! You should not mind me being negative - the posters and holders of FTB are so overwhelmingly positive, it would take a 100 tonne truck to stop their continuous ramping of this stock.[B)]

The share price in the short term is irrelevant - the fundamentals will ultimately decide where the share price goes to. RMG was 38 cents before it crashed to 3 cents - and you should read the ramping that went on with that stock before the fundamentals come through. Likewise, Kachingo. :D

So ask yourself this question - who is really making the real money out of FTB now?;)

[KJ]

Minder-you should have listened to me when I bought FTB options back in June-nice 60% plus gain.Far better than FTX which you spent a lot of time trying to ramp up.

Great to see you back on this topic-but please come up with something new!

[mikescott]

KJ, thanks for your concern.;)

I am just so devastated that I missed out on such big gains ...just like I missed out on buying RMG at 20 cents buying it off some of the principals ....:D:D:D:D

[Signal]

This goes back to a question raised by $imon on the 26th regarding availability of FTB at Melbourne arrivals Duty Free.

I've just read the interview with Geoff Ross on ShareChat, refer:

www.sharechat.co.nz/features/iinterviews/article.php/67d6d5c7

Mentions that Fosters will move product into Brisbane and Perth in October, then Sydney and Melbourne.

[mikescott]

Hi guys, this stock needs some attention from you 'true' believers! It's drifting lower and the bidders are pulling out their bids whilst the sellers are getting ever keener to sell out!!!!![xx(]

Buy now! It's not going to matter when the stock is $1.50 by year end!!!!!!!![:p][:p][:p][:p]

[marinesalvor]

I will check Brisbane Duty Free on Saturday

[nottiger]

quote:Originally posted by minder


Hi guys, this stock needs some attention from you 'true' believers! It's drifting lower and the bidders are pulling out their bids whilst the sellers are getting ever keener to sell out!!!!![xx(]


Minder I have done some fundamental research which shows 42 Below will never ammount to anything - and the share price will continue it's dive.

None of the following have 42 Below in stock:

Mitre 10
BNZ
Rebel Sport
Subway
Post Shop
Payless Shoes
The Warehouse
Michael Hill Jeweller

Further - according to reliable sources - these quality outlets have no intention to stock the product

Sorry FTB investors minder is right - [u]FTB is a bomb</u>

[boring]

Quick ... Nottiger ... do Minder a favour and inform the NZX of your findings so that the market can be better informed and result in a more efficiently priced FTB share !

[mikescott]

Come on guys, I am just warming to the stock and am just alerting to the need to keep attention on it so that it can go to $1.50 where it richly deserves to be.:D

Here's hoping that the principals will supply some precious stock soon. [:p]

[KJ]

Hey Minder-don't you know an uptrend when you see one?

Up 65% since June.

But seriously-you are a trader-why haven't you been trading this stock?

Fortune-to-be!

[mikescott]

I remember the same thing being said abour RMG & Kachingo - the uptrend, see?:D

Buy! Buy! [:p]

[Gryffyn]

Yawn. Who put this stuck record back on?

[Gryffyn]

But at the least the tone has changed so perhaps welcome back.

[Phaedrus]

Gentlemen, What you (or I) think about this stock is immaterial. It is what the market thinks of FTB that will make you rich or poor. Right now, there is no doubt whatsoever as to the market's opinion of this stock.

Minder, Technically, I cannot see any parallels between this stock and RMG. (see chart below) I agree with you on one point though - when the principals start selling out, you should too. The On Balance Volume indicator can show this sort of activity very clearly. Right now, there is no evidence of this.

http://img.photobucket.com/albums/v418/789456/FTBRMG001.gif

[Signal]

Thank you Phaedrus for the chart. Can you please explain how you insert those into your posting?

[mikescott]

quote:Originally posted by Phaedrus

Gentlemen, What you (or I) think about this stock is immaterial. It is what the market thinks of FTB that will make you rich or poor. Right now, there is no doubt whatsoever as to the market's opinion of this stock.

Minder, Technically, I cannot see any parallels between this stock and RMG. (see chart below) I agree with you on one point though - when the principals start selling out, you should too. The On Balance Volume indicator can show this sort of activity very clearly. Right now, there is no evidence of this.



Agreed, P.

That's why the market can be so wrong once fundamentals come through and all is revealed.

The parallel with RMG is that RMG went from 7 cents to 38 cents on the back of some serious market misjudgement before fundamentals came through and [xx(]

[Phaedrus]

How to post a chart :-

http://sharetrader.co.nz/topic.asp?TOPIC_ID=20654

[Signal]

Thanks Phaedrus. Enjoyed your post about trends addressed to Hugh on the same page. I get the impression Hugh never responded.

Any interest in responding to Phaedrus's comments Minder? I sense you are in the same camp as Hugh when it comes to "fundamentals" and trading trends.

[mikescott]

Here's freebie bit of infor for those of you wondering about FTB's share price movement. The story goes that an institution has been buying FTB and had bought just slightly more than 1 million shares when it was offered a lot of stock at 60 cents. Institution smelt something, said no and could now be trying to sell its shares whilst it has profits to book. The good news is that an institution is now on the share register. The bad news is ????;)

Maybe you now know why all the bidders have pulled off. Don't want to get hit on the way down? [:p]

[nottiger]

quote:Originally posted by minder


Here's freebie bit of infor for those of you wondering about FTB's share price movement. The story goes that an institution has been buying FTB and had bought just slightly more than 1 million shares when it was offered a lot of stock at 60 cents. Institution smelt something, said no and could now be trying to sell its shares whilst it has profits to book. The good news is that an institution is now on the share register. The bad news is ????;)

Maybe you now know why all the bidders have pulled off. Don't want to get hit on the way down? [:p]


or.........maybe........it is an upward trend with settling along the way


No .....can't be that simple[?]

[Gryffyn]

nice websites dude - pukugolf - nice one!

[spector]

new news thanks to google news alert

http://www.suntimes.com/output/wiser/sho-sunday-paige14.html

[Mr Murphy]

Hay if anyone has seen the Dec 2004 issue of GQ magazine, 42 below was ranked 15th out of top 110 of must have things.

That is huge, you can't buy that kind of advertising. A picture a bottle of 42 below in the middle of the page.....massive

Murph

[marinesalvor]

Happy to report a massive presence by FTB in Brisbane duty free including a tast test service with a fulltime staff member - well done fosters

[Gryffyn]

MS - you'd be needing a bit of the product to compensate for recent Toon results.

Good to have the mystery shopper reports.

[marinesalvor]

bought a huge bottle of feijoa on way back in... drank most of it after 7 conceded goals in a week!

[Gryffyn]

:-) At least Europe is going well.

[marinesalvor]

yes but we are leaking goals!! soon some weird french team will net 5 before our defence remembers they are in a game

[Golfer]

This is great news. Am I correct in saying GQ is a sydicated on a global basis? WOW..
Its all about marketing and this is hot...



quote:Originally posted by Mr Murphy

Hay if anyone has seen the Dec 2004 issue of GQ magazine, 42 below was ranked 15th out of top 110 of must have things.

That is huge, you can't buy that kind of advertising. A picture a bottle of 42 below in the middle of the page.....massive

Murph

[Mr Murphy]

Here is the article:

http://www.42below.co.nz/UKGQDec04_2_web.pdf

Cheers
Murph

[The Doctor]

of course you can 'BUY' that kind of advertising!

[spector]

it's all just hype... I remeber when Kachingo was on GQ's list of topp 100 things you must own and being talked about in papers all over the world. :)

[mikescott]

quote:Originally posted by spector

it's all just hype... I remeber when Kachingo was on GQ's list of topp 100 things you must own and being talked about in papers all over the world. :)


Must mean that spector has seen the light and sold out of his fool-to-be! [^]

It's not like him not to spin an event like this up. :D:D:D

[Lawso]

MS: Your football woes remind of a headline in a UK tabloid after Sweden had beaten England 3-0.

Swedes 3
Turnips 0

[marinesalvor]

sadly yes Lawso - am renaming my team the dunderheads though

[spector]

quote:Originally posted by minder


quote:Originally posted by spector

it's all just hype... I remeber when Kachingo was on GQ's list of topp 100 things you must own and being talked about in papers all over the world. :)


Must mean that spector has seen the light and sold out of his fool-to-be! [^]

It's not like him not to spin an event like this up. :D:D:D


sorry mate, couldn't help myself. You have to admit though that the GQ thing is pretty impressive.:D

[mikescott]

Share price falling backwards after GQ. This is the clearest sign yet for you fools-to-be that the market is now immune to 'good'news from FTB. Remember the boy who cried wolf too often? ;)

Check out the selling today at 60 cents.[xx(]

So who will buy the shares now that the institution with 1 million plus shares has decided to start selling to lock in their profits?[xx(]

Oh dear!!!!!:(

[nottiger]

quote:Originally posted by minder



Check out the selling today at 60 cents.[xx(]

So who will buy the shares now that the institution with 1 million plus shares has decided to start selling to lock in their profits?[xx(]

Oh dear!!!!!:(



Hi Minder [8D]

So you've changed your tune!- as you now perceive selling at 60c as a sign of disaster! - so in a year will you be posting?:

"FTB now selling at 112c - this proves FTB means Fools to Be, and the con-pany is in it's downhill slide to oblivion!""

[blackcap]

[/quote]

Hi Minder [8D]

So you've changed your tune!- as you now perceive selling at 60c as a sign of disaster! - so in a year will you be posting?:

"FTB now selling at 112c - this proves FTB means Fools to Be, and the con-pany is in it's downhill slide to oblivion!""
[/quote]

Nottinger, Lol, but dont encourage him. Personally i think he thrives on personal rebuttal and the more we rebut his efforts the more he posts. Having said that, I cant work out his logic, becuase he only does it when a share goes down. Not hard to do really. Might try it on NOG myself. Cheers

[nottiger]

quote:Originally posted by blackcap



[quote]

dont encourage him.

mmmmmmmmmmm but I can't resist - infact note Minders words "has decided to start selling to lock in their [u]profits</u> ? - whoops Minder - your game is up![}:)]

[blackcap]

:):):)

[mikescott]

Very very very satisfying. Reaction as expected from fools-to-be. [:p]

Institution buys from 45 cents and helped to push share price to 63 cents, ably helped by other fools-to-be. So institution now takes profits. Good on the institution but can it get out? :D

I love this! ;)

[Golfer]

Minder, this confirms it. You are a guru.. Can you pass this foresight onto other shares? I really wish you could have told me this scenario when FTB was at 45 cents I could have made 50% profit.
Did you????
Give us another example so are you only able to predict what FTB is going to do?



quote:Originally posted by minder


Very very very satisfying. Reaction as expected from fools-to-be. [:p]

Institution buys from 45 cents and helped to push share price to 63 cents, ably helped by other fools-to-be. So institution now takes profits. Good on the institution but can it get out? :D

I love this! ;)

[mikescott]

Take the market commentary with my compliments. [^]

You want to make 50% on the market? Just buy a few Rocom today. :D

[Golfer]

Thanks for the tip. Are you using the same fundamentals as FTB?

50% - how long do I hold to make this?



quote:Originally posted by minder


Take the market commentary with my compliments. [^]

You want to make 50% on the market? Just buy a few Rocom today. :D

[Phaedrus]

Minder will eventually be "right" of course. In the meantime they are "wrong". There is no technical evidence of distribution yet.

Not for me, but I know an uptrend when I see one.

http://img.villagephotos.com/p/2004-10/848030/FTB001.gif

[Golfer]

Thanks for the chart. So if minder is eventuately right, how long should one ride the horse for?

Minder?

p.s. Minder, I will watch Rocom closely.


quote:Originally posted by Phaedrus

Minder will eventually be "right" of course. In the meantime they are "wrong". There is no technical evidence of distribution yet.

Not for me, but I know an uptrend when I see one.

http://img.villagephotos.com/p/2004-10/848030/FTB001.gif

[Bling_Bling]

Went to the local bar in Hunters Corner in Papatoetoe and ask for a Manuka Honey 42 Below with Cranberry juice. The 150kg bar person looked at me funny. What the? No 42 below ! That is not a good sign when I can't get a 42 below drink at me local pub ! [xx(]

[nottiger]

quote:Originally posted by Bling_Bling

That is not a good sign when I can't get a 42 below drink at me local pub ! [xx(]


N=1 - not sure of the stat significance here!:D

[Bling_Bling]

FTB distribution network is not working when one cannot get a 42 below drink at the local South Auckland pub !!!! Bloody Pakeha's keeping all the fine stuff to yourself. Just like me cant get Henessy X0 or a bottle of Dom !! [:o)]

[Phaedrus]

Golfer, How long should one ride the horse for?
As long as it is heading in the right direction at a reasonable speed!
These criteria are somewhat subjective though. TA can provide more objective measures of an uptrend, as with the 3 indicators plotted on the chart. Sell when/if price action drops below any of these three indicators. If you have a large holding, a nice compromise is to sell one third as each indicator triggers a Sell signal. Personally, I would sell the lot on the trendline break - but then I am like that.

[mikescott]

Anyone who warned against IT stocks on their way up - that punters were buying a lot of hyped-up hot air, would have received exactly the same reaction as I am here cautioning against fools-to-be.:D

Happy to be proven wrong but your spears do not concern me one micro-bit. :)

[mikescott]

quote:Originally posted by Bling_Bling

Went to the local bar in Hunters Corner in Papatoetoe and ask for a Manuka Honey 42 Below with Cranberry juice. The 150kg bar person looked at me funny. What the? No 42 below ! That is not a good sign when I can't get a 42 below drink at me local pub ! [xx(]


Premium product like FTB (GQ's top 15 must haves) and you expect to get it from prostitutes corner? Get real! Hope you enjoyed the other offerings there anyway. ;)[:p]

Meanwhile, institution is moving his price lower to sell and not surprisingly, all their 'bids' of 100,000s at 53, 55 and 57c have been taken off the market! Wonder why? Maybe they don't want to get hit on the way down? [^]

[The Doctor]

MINDER.....you're good!!

[Bling_Bling]

Minder, how do you know there are hookers at Hunters Corner??? [?]

[mikescott]

quote:Originally posted by Bling_Bling

Minder, how do you know there are hookers at Hunters Corner??? [?]


Only catholic priests would not know that there are prostitutes at Hunters Corner![:I]

[Gryffyn]

actually they'd be the first to know.

Strangely quiet on the latest news from FTB which shows that they are continuing to tunr a promising idea into a hard cash generating reality.

[Gryffyn]

42-Below posts half year loss

22.11.2004 6.45 pm

Spirits maker 42 Below today posted a net loss of $2.836 million for the half year to September.

Sales for the period were $5.810m, up 175 per cent on the previous six months, while earnings before interest, tax, depreciation and amortisation (ebitda) were negative $2.939m.

"These results are in line with the directors' expectations and confirm a consistent trend of moving closer to a break-even position as sales increase," the company said in a statement to the stock exchange.

The company said it believes the revenues will be higher and losses lower in the second half of the financial year, but said sales were likely to fall in the final quarter of the year, which is traditionally quiet.

The New Zealand and Australian markets were both profitable, while the US market made a loss as did the British market which was expected to reach break-even in December.

The company said it was in talks with a number of unnamed international parties in regards to growing its offshore presence.

"The company is currently considering a more aggressive strategy in overseas markets that would enable it to continue its exponential growth through the next few years," the statement said.

Shares in 42 Below rose 3c to 60c today, having ranged between 30c and 62c over the past 12 months.

- NZPA

[Snow Leopard]

quote:
from todays announcement

Other markets such as the USA are in a loss position as the company continues to grow the brand.


I got back from California (San Francisco area) a few weeks ago. The website actually said that a liquor store about ten blocks from me stocked it and I went to look, the guy said it did not sell well at all.
None of the guys where I was working had heard of it prior to me mentioning it, only a couple out of twenty odd liked it when I handed round the fejoa, five were happy with the honey flavoured. No one was interested in buying any. Couple of days later one person said they had seen it in their local bar.

[Mr Murphy]

Just got back to my hotel after having a few drinks at the trendy (and very expensive) bar under the opera house in Sydney. guess what they stocked.... 42 Below so that is what we drank, me and 10 others, they are now reordering more stock :) Had a chat to the lovely young bar girl and she said it was very popular. at A$8 a glass they must have made a killing off us. But the Feijoa is just so good with apple juice. bought one at duty free to give to a mate in Sydney as a pressie.

All good
Murph

P.S I don't own any shares I just drink heaps of the stuff [^]

[blackcap]

I note the announcement mentions the requirement for more capital but FTB are talking to overseas parties to raise the funds. Does this imply that they need the funds now, or does it mean the Warrant exercise next year will not be sufficient?

If its the latter then things could get interesting either way.

I see they also still have 6 million in the bank, so stating that they need more capital, seems to imply they are seeking quite a bit.

What did others make of the sales and gross margin figures?

[marinesalvor]

blackcap - story explicitly said they ARENT seeking more capital - i think you will find that the expansion with overseas partners mentioned above will be a Fosters type deal for USA and another for Europe

[marinesalvor]

ps was again in brisbane in last few days - was in trendy hotel bar in South bank - all four flavours of FTB at bar - 8.50 a drink - selling well according to staff

[blackcap]

Marinesalvor, extract from announcement

"The company is currently considering a more aggressive strategy in overseasmarkets that would enable it to continue its exponential growth through thenext few years. The strategies the company would like to put in place wouldrequire additional capital to fund a larger sales force, greater inventorylevels, a larger debtors ledger, distributor incentives and additionaladvertising. To this end the company is in dialogue with a number of partiesoutside New Zealand"

Look slike they are looking for more capital?

[marinesalvor]

Quote:
Ross said tackling the US market would cost money and 42 Below was having some "initial chats" with potential distribution partners.

But he had no plans to go to the market again to raise money. 42 Below raised $13.8 million when it listed on the sharemarket last October and has $6 million in the bank.

"We can grow with what we've got," said Ross.

Expansion is aimed at maintaining the rapid growth 42 Below has so far experienced.

In particular, Ross wants a larger sales team, more inventory, a larger debtors ledger, incentives for distributors and more advertising.

[Signal]

Seems to be some confusion here, this is extracted from the NZSE announcement:

The company is currently considering a more aggressive strategy in overseas markets that would enable it to continue its exponential growth through the next few years. The strategies the company would like to put in place would require additional capital to fund a larger sales force, greater inventory levels, a larger debtors ledger, distributor incentives and additional advertising. To this end the company is in dialogue with a number of parties outside New Zealand.

Previously the company had said they had sufficient capital with the warranty conversion due.

MS - where are your comments sourced from?

[marinesalvor]

Herald article Signal

[Gryffyn]

42 Below expects to break even next year
23 November 2004

Vodka and gin maker 42 Below is not yet toasting a maiden profit but, with sales growing and plans for expansion in the US, it expects to break even early next year.


The company lost $2.8 million in the half year to September 30, on sales of $5.8 million.

Losses will continue this half year as 42 Below builds its American distribution network, but the company is confident it will increase revenue and cut its loss "substantially".

42 Below chief executive Geoff Ross said the name of the game was simply increasing the volume of vodka and gin sold around the world.

"Costs do run ahead of revenue initially. However, as that curve flattens revenue will overtake costs."

Sales for the latest six months were up 175 per cent on the previous half year.

"Sales show no sign of slowing," said Ross, who attributed a strong performance in Australia to a distribution deal with Carlton United Breweries.

AdvertisementAdvertisement"We're only a couple of months into it but everything is telling us it was the right decision," said Mr Ross.

42 Below had signalled it would break even towards the end of the financial year in March, but the company said the figures showed October had been a break-even month.

Mr Ross expected the business in Britain to break even in December.

With New Zealand, Australia and Britain all soon to be profitable, focus would shift to the US vodka market.

"It's the biggest prize and therefore requires the bigger investment," said Mr Ross.

Mr Ross said 42 Below has so far focused on the eastern and western seaboards of the US and Las Vegas - the company's biggest single sales region in the US, which he described as an "adults' Disneyland".

"We could send stock to Texas tomorrow, but we've resisted that temptation because we want to get a solid, loyal support base in the cities we're in."

Around 44 million cases of vodka are sold in the US each year. In comparison, 42 Below sold around 45,000 cases of vodka and gin worldwide in the year to September 30.

Mr Ross said tackling the US market would cost money and 42 Below was having some "initial chats" with potential distribution partners.

But he had no plans to go to the market again to raise money. 42 Below raised $13.8 million when it listed on the sharemarket last October and has $6 million in the bank.

"We can grow with what we've got," said Mr Ross.

Expansion is aimed at maintaining the rapid growth 42 Below has so far experienced.

In particular, Mr Ross wants a larger sales team, more inventory, a larger debtors ledger, incentives for distributors and more advertising.

The latter is already a substantial cost for 42 Below, but the company's marketing machine has been particularly effective lately.

The vodka has appeared on "must have" lists compiled by the glitzy magazines GQ and Elle, and 42 Below has featured on BBC Radio, CNN and the Jay Leno show in the US.

"Media breeds media," said Mr Ross. "In the last four to five months it's snowballed.

"When one magazine picks it up it becomes a sought-after property by other magazines."

The family of fruit-flavoured vodkas produced by 42 Below would receive a new addition - kiwifruit.

"It was the first flavour we ever started on, thinking there'd be a natural appetite for it, but to keep the flavour of the kiwifruit has taken such a long time," said Ross.

"We've finally cracked it."

[Placebo]

The announcement in all its glory:

quote:FTB
22/11/2004
HALFYR

REL: 1549 HRS 42 Below Limited

HALFYR: FTB: 42 Below releases 30 September 2004 half year result

Vodka and gin maker 42 Below Ltd today released their unaudited half yearly
result to the end of September 2004. Sales for the period were $5.810m, an
increase of 175% over the previous 6 months. EBITDA was negative $2.939m and
NPAT was negative $2.836m. Gross margin on sales grew by 188% while
expenditure required to achieve $1 of gross margin fell from $2.22 in the
previous 6 months to $1.99 in the September half year. These results are in
line with the directors' expectations and confirm a consistent trend of
moving closer to a break even position as sales increase.

The company had previously informed the market that they expected to break
even in the last quarter of the 04/05 financial year. The company's first
break even month has come early with preliminary results showing October as
being a break-even month. However sales may slow in the final quarter of the
financial year which is traditionally the time of lowest demand in a number
of the company's markets. Overall however the company believes that in the
second six months of the financial year 04/05 it will achieve higher revenues
and substantially lower losses than in the first six months.

The New Zealand market is now consistently profitable and Australia moved
into profit for the first time in October with the commencement of the
distribution agreement with Carlton and United Beverages. The company expects
these two markets to grow in profitability. The UK market is currently
showing a small loss but is expected to reach break even in December and be
profitable in the new year. Other markets such as the USA are in a loss
position as the company continues to grow the brand.

Case sales are growing each quarter but this has not always been reflected in
revenue as recent distribution agreements have meant sales exclude duty
whereas historical revenue figures have included excise duties. In this
situation sales revenue reduces as sales do not include excise tax, but gross
profit dollars do not change.

Actual Case sales over the year to 30 September 2004 were

Quarter 1 7,328
Quarter 2 9,576
Quarter 3 11,922
Quarter 4 16,410

If case sales continue at current record levels, revenue for the quarter
ended 31 December 2004 should be at least $3.3m. The company believes that
these additional sales are due to organic growth, distributors forward
ordering in anticipation of high demand over the Christmas/holiday season and
initial stocking under the distribution agreements with Fosters New Zealand
and Carlton United Beverages.

The company is currently considering a more aggressive strategy in overseas
markets that would enable it to continue its exponential growth through the
next few years. The strategies the company would like to put in place would
require additional capital to fund a larger sales force, greater inventory
levels, a larger debtors ledger, distributor incentives and additional
advertising. To this end the company is in dialogue with a number of parties
outside New Zealand

At 30 September 2004 the company had cash in the bank of $6.079m and interest
accrued but not received of $321k.

After two years of development the company will launch Kiwifruit Flavoured
Vodka in December. Limited amounts of the Kiwifruit Flavoured Vodka will be
available in the New Zealand domestic and duty free markets prior to the
international launch in early 2005.

For further information contact:

Geoff Ross

Phone: +64 21 424219
Email: geoff@42below.co.nz

More good news from a company that is starting to regularly provide the market with pleasant surprises.

[spector]

all looks pretty positive to me... I had a dig around the web for anything about 42 in America and found this.

http://www.adrants.com/2004/11/new-campaign-appeals-to-gay-coke.php

[winner69]

More on vodka marketing


Vodka Battles Turning Into a Guerilla Marketing War

November 11, 2004
By Kathleen Kiley, Managing Editor, Consumer Markets Insider


Could guerilla marketing strategies used by some high-end vodka makers spill over into other beverage categories?

Originally a strategy for starving startups, vodka distillers are employing so-called guerilla or street-level marketing tactics in order to gain a toehold in a growing but competitive market.

Guerilla marketing is generally considered the promotion of a product through non-traditional means, excluding mass media, with an emphasis on face-to-face contact with potential customers, including giveaways and sponsoring events. In the case of spirit makers, guerilla marketing often consists of promotions at bars and clubs, counting on word of mouth to sell a new beverage.

"Guerilla marketing is one-on-one contact with people and it can work for any product, from automobiles to grape juice," says Ted Wright, a partner in beverage consulting firm Liquid Intelligence's Atlanta office.

That doesn't mean every company will try it, Wright says: "It all depends on the company culture -- Corporate America has a great tolerance for doing the same thing, rather than take a chance and possibly fail."

According to Advertising Age magazine, Miller Brewing Co. is relying less on TV advertising to reach twenty-something beer drinkers and instead trying to reach drinkers at the point of sale, such as in bars and at entertainment events.

For any given product, guerilla marketing may have limited effectiveness because of its "in-your-face" element, says Jeff Curley, brand manager at Spirits Marque One, an importer of Svedka, a mid-range priced Swedish vodka that retails for about $14 a bottle.

Energy drink makers, for instance, have been using rap stars to promote their brands. "This type of marketing campaign can be successful in the beginning, but after the seventh rap star comes out with an energy drink, it's like, 'yeah, big deal,'" Curley says.

One juice maker wanted to convey its "goodness" element to consumers, and Liquid Intelligence, which the juice company used as consultants, hired people dressed as gas station attendants hand out coupons for the company's grape juice.

"You have to give people a reason to buy, and so marketers have to create a story that focuses on influencers who will pass the story along," Curley says. "In China and India, companies can still run a commercial and profit from it, because people have not seen a lot of them, but in North America there's not [as much] value in [mass media]."

The "vodka war" between premium brands illustrates guerilla marketing's pervasive influence. With vodka growing in popularity, the field is crowded and spirits companies scratch for market share. "Just walk into a liquor store and vodka takes up about 27 feet in shelf space," says Liquid Intelligence's Wright.

Because it is a neutral spirit, vodka is popular as a base for cocktails, and the explosion in flavored vodkas has helped create a popular but volatile market.

Once considered a Russian drink, vodka is now made in many countries, including Ireland and New Zealand. "There are advantages of being a neutral spirit, but the disadvantages are bars will just switch spirits if they run out," Wright says. "It's referred to as the vodka dance."

Traditionally, distillers sell primarily through wholesalers or distributors, which sell to bar owners and merchants. But distillers have consolidated and are less patient to slowly grow a new brand.

It's why 42 Below, a new vodka that retails for more than $30 a bottle, has built its own seven-person American sales team to sell bar to bar. Geoff Ross, CEO of 42 Below, started distilling vodka in his garage in Wellington, New Zealand. "In the last six years, super premium vodkas have been the highest growth areas," Ross says, a former ad executive at Saatchi & Saatchi.

Overall, spirits sales climbed 3.8 percent in 2003, reaching more than 159 m

[Placebo]

Oh my god! They aim to conquer the US market with (wait for it) SEVEN SALES STAFF???

From small acorns....

[mikescott]

What's the problem? 7 sales staff is a lot for the US for a company that can convince punters that a start up can have goodwill of $35 million, and that one of the vendors should be paid out US$1.3 millions for FTB's own US distribution contract. :D

[Snow Leopard]

quote:Originally posted by minder


What's the problem? 7 sales staff is a lot for the US for a company that can convince punters that a start up can have goodwill of $35 million, and that one of the vendors should be paid out US$1.3 millions for FTB's own US distribution contract. :D


Here we go again...[|)][|)][|)][|)][|)][|)]

[mikescott]

That's right, PT - let's see how good their salesmanship is in the USA. Are the Yanks as easily convinced as the NZ punters who believe a start-up can have goodwill of $35 million?[:p]

Notice how well Kachingo went for a while before reality set in? :D

[Placebo]

Winner was that article from a NZ mag?

[winner69]

From KPMG in the states. Do a daily letter about various market segments

Go to
www.kpmginsiders.com

and subscribe to the consumers part and u should be able to access

[spector]

I'm thinking about getting another packet of FTB after going to 3 different end of year christmas bashs where the majority of people were drinking 42.
But before I do I want to do a bit more research amongst everyone on this forum to see whether this is a trend or just an anomaly because of me living in Auckland.

If it's happeneing elsewhere then December sales should push 42s break even closer than forecasted.

Be great to hear from posters in Aussie in particular.

[Gryffyn]

Sounds like your current research is most enjoyable ;)

[Golfer]

I've a friend who's in the know at DFS in CHC airport and he tells me that they are always restocking the shelves. Perhaps Air NZ are using it to fuel their aircraft:D




quote:Originally posted by spector

I'm thinking about getting another packet of FTB after going to 3 different end of year christmas bashs where the majority of people were drinking 42.
But before I do I want to do a bit more research amongst everyone on this forum to see whether this is a trend or just an anomaly because of me living in Auckland.

If it's happeneing elsewhere then December sales should push 42s break even closer than forecasted.

Be great to hear from posters in Aussie in particular.

[limegreen]

quote:Perhaps Air NZ are using it to fuel their aircraft

That's high oil prices for you...


The press from Auckland Christmas parties & FTB hasn't been all postive... I'm sure I read the people with Scribe who had a fight with the BFM staffer were dosed up on the product...

[The GrandMaster]

Just got back from xmas do (5th for the year) and couldn't help but notice a rather attractive lady at the bar convincing a group of her friends to try the feijoa vodka. There is only one way for this baby.

The Grand(but slightly drunk)Master

[beautifulmind]

MEXICO: 42 Below goes Latino
17 Dec 2004
Source: just-drinks.com editorial team

click here for details

New Zealand’s 42 Below has launched its namesake vodka brand on the Mexican market. The company said on Wednesday (15 December) that it has invested over US$1m in starting operations in the country.

42 Below aims to sell around 500 boxes of vodka a month in Mexico, and expects to break MXN11m (US$985,000) in sales during its first six months.

A bottle of 42 Below vodka will retail at between MXN314 (US$28) and MXN328 (US$29), a spokesperson for the company said. The vodka will only be available in Mexico City initially, but will hit Acapulco, Cancun, Los Cabos, Monterrey, Guadalajara and Puebla in the near future.

42 Below vodka is presently available in the US, Singapore, Canada and the UK.

[Bling_Bling]

Is like selling premium 2 litre Mexican milk at $8 in NZ. :D

[nottiger]

I bought a 500ml bottle of the new kiwifruit flavour in the tiny duty free store at Hamilton airport this week , and the standard was available was in a bar in LAX several weeks back

The non flavoured version seems just harsh liquor but the flavoured ones seems the point of diference taste wise and the country of origin branding wise

[Mr_p_yu]

This stock is only for the drunk like dumb dine.

[rmbbrave]

I for one value P Yu's opinions very highly. He is definitely worth listening to. He has an unrivaled record. He is almost always WRONG!

I suggest that you listen to his opinions and then do the exact opposite.

On Friday I actually placed a small order for FTB at 0.58 but didn't get any as the price went up 3.45% to 0.60. I know this is a risky share so I was a little aprehensive about placing the order. But now that P Yu has condemned it as a "stock for the drunk" I feel much happier about placing my order and I think I will amend the price upwards to be sure that I get some.

He is still bagging AIA, which has been rising since the IPO, so I placed an order for some of them too but again my price was a little low so I didn't get of them either!

Thanks P Yu keep it up! You're a genius mate!

[blackcap]

Thanks for the above rmbbrave. It brought a smile to my otherwise hungover afternoon.

[marinesalvor]

yep Mr P Yu - the famous "Whenuapai is in the bag" man!

[Bling_Bling]

quote:Originally posted by Mr_p_yu

This stock is only for the drunk like dumb dine.


You must be a client of JB Were. .... lmao !

[madmike]

quote:Originally posted by bongo66

Seems 42 have been a raisin capital in the dead of xmas hols:

http://www.stuff.co.nz/stuff/0,2106,3139625a13,00.html

Why, raise moola this time of year and couldnt the small shareholders have been included as well?

This just aint cricket, Bongo


agree bongo...anything like this done/announced at this time of year stinks.

disc....my lime vodka is better than theirs

[StainlessSteelRat]

quote:
Actually, my phrasing aint accurate. Why announce that you have raised capital on xmas eve having known and planned it well before hand-unless it was a spur of the moment thing after xmas Vodka at the staff party.

A beer man, Bongo


Burn, baby burn....... :D

[nottiger]

quote:Originally posted by bongo66

Seems 42 have been a raisin capital in the dead of xmas hols:

http://www.stuff.co.nz/stuff/0,2106,3139625a13,00.html

Why, raise moola this time of year and couldnt the small shareholders have been included as well?

This just aint cricket, Bongo


Perhaps the part that ain't cricket is the price of 52c - seems unfair to FTB's mom and pop investors. I hope there is no 'connection' between the new investors and the directors!

Shame because I think FTB is a solid company - perhaps they need to explain more abought this!

I am a little confused as to why they need more NOW, with the 1st rights issue approaching, and supposed cash flow positive in 2005 - are they going to be more agressive in buying exposure?

[KJ]

They advised the market 22/11/04 that they were looking to raise more capital and also gave the reasons.

Asking existing shareholders was out of the question as they had said on a number of occasions that they would not do so.

[johna]

Yum, yum. The half year report includes another voucher for a discounted bottle of South Gin. Great stuff. Bring on the Martinis!

[StainlessSteelRat]

quote:Originally posted by KJ
Asking existing shareholders was out of the question as they had said on a number of occasions that they would not do so.


Presumably because they have already pre-empted the current shareholders with issues in '05 and '06.

Then you have to ask the question, what has happened in the meantime that would require another large injection of cash?

[KJ]

SSR-have you read the 22/11/04 report re need for additional capital?

And getting a finacial institution on board could do lots for share price

[The Doctor]

goodwill made the 'eyes water'...,now share price 'watered' down...y not 'water down 'the voddie...make it go further...never misses a trick this fellow...hmm maybe he can 'walk on water'!

[StainlessSteelRat]

quote:Originally posted by KJ

SSR-have you read the 22/11/04 report re need for additional capital?


I did, but i also read that they have $9m in the bank (presumably after the $3.12m raised). That being the case, why would they be wanting to top up the kitty just before Christmas?

[spector]

hmmm... knowing that FTB have to keep the share price at a certain level if they want people to exercise their 'A' options in 10 months time... and assuming that the institutions that have bought in wouldn't do so unless they had a look at the companies books... I wonder what the actual sales figures are at the moment?

I'm a little bewildered as to why an institution can buy shares for less than the public though... will these purchases be conditional? By that I mean I assume these institutions won't be able to just dump these shares on the market tomorrow?

[Sharebroker]

Happens all the time - witness the share placements by FBU, Nuplex and KIP in recent times. Discounts were not as big as FTB's of 10% though.

[Shamrock]

Biggest volume today since August.

[spector]

Well the market hasn't reacted one way or the other on the back of the fund manager share issue... so i have bitten the bullet and bought a few more head shares... although I did take the precaution of rising early one morning to check the glass recycling bins around Grey Lynn to see how many empty 42 Below bottles were in them.

[spector]

quote:Originally posted by spector

Well the market hasn't reacted one way or the other on the back of the fund manager share issue... so i have bitten the bullet and bought a few more head shares... although I did take the precaution of rising early one morning to check the glass recycling bins around Grey Lynn to see how many empty 42 Below bottles were in them.


seems I was wrong... the market is reacting to something.... anyone know what's going on?

[rmbbrave]

quote:Originally posted by rmbbrave

I for one value P Yu's opinions very highly. He is definitely worth listening to. He has an unrivaled record. He is almost always WRONG!

I suggest that you listen to his opinions and then do the exact opposite.

On Friday I actually placed a small order for FTB at 0.58 but didn't get any as the price went up 3.45% to 0.60. I know this is a risky share so I was a little aprehensive about placing the order. But now that P Yu has condemned it as a "stock for the drunk" I feel much happier about placing my order and I think I will amend the price upwards to be sure that I get some.

He is still bagging AIA, which has been rising since the IPO, so I placed an order for some of them too but again my price was a little low so I didn't get of them either!

Thanks P Yu keep it up! You're a genius mate!



It is the P Yu factor. He rubbishes a share and it rises.

I told you he was a genius.

Another possible reason for the rise is that FTB was the 7th most popular share in the stock picking contest.

I also bought a few more this morning at 0.59 but I don't think this had much effect on the SP.

[spector]

Thanks P Yu!

[Bobby_Fischer]

quote:Originally posted by spector


quote:Originally posted by spector

Well the market hasn't reacted one way or the other on the back of the fund manager share issue... so i have bitten the bullet and bought a few more head shares... although I did take the precaution of rising early one morning to check the glass recycling bins around Grey Lynn to see how many empty 42 Below bottles were in them.


seems I was wrong... the market is reacting to something.... anyone know what's going on?


Minder has finally seen the light and bought in perhaps?

[leanmeanfightingmachine]

Yea not to sure about this share. I no so many people who have brought this stock who no jack s___t about investing. (And it's the only one they own)
Can someone tell me if any big brokers/firms have brought this stock, or is it just people who like what they are holding on to on saturday night?

Also considering there is over 1000 vodkas in the world i can not see this company really making it big. The only hope is if a big player like allied or diago buys it out and throws the product/s into it's own distribution channels- that's where the big money will be made.

So as a share to buy for a takeover, maybe it's worth a go.

Leanmeanfightingmachine







quote:Originally posted by rmbbrave


quote:Originally posted by rmbbrave

I for one value P Yu's opinions very highly. He is definitely worth listening to. He has an unrivaled record. He is almost always WRONG!

I suggest that you listen to his opinions and then do the exact opposite.

On Friday I actually placed a small order for FTB at 0.58 but didn't get any as the price went up 3.45% to 0.60. I know this is a risky share so I was a little aprehensive about placing the order. But now that P Yu has condemned it as a "stock for the drunk" I feel much happier about placing my order and I think I will amend the price upwards to be sure that I get some.

He is still bagging AIA, which has been rising since the IPO, so I placed an order for some of them too but again my price was a little low so I didn't get of them either!

Thanks P Yu keep it up! You're a genius mate!



It is the P Yu factor. He rubbishes a share and it rises.

I told you he was a genius.

Another possible reason for the rise is that FTB was the 7th most popular share in the stock picking contest.

I also bought a few more this morning at 0.59 but I don't think this had much effect on the SP.

[45south]

Hi
Some ones got mine today. Decided to get rid of a few odds and sods today. Goodbye FTB.
Coming back from Sydney I stocked up on some plonk.
Two spirits $49 Three spirits $65 One 42Below $45
The decision wasn,t hard. Didn,t see one 42Below move.
Are there claimed sales stocking the shelves or whats retailing over the counter.

[rmbbrave]

"I no (sic) so many people who have brought this stock who no (sic) jack s___t about investing."

Those are fighting words Leanmeanfightingmachine.

I will have you know that I KNOW far more about investing than I do about the courting habits of the lesser spotted woodpecker.

... for your information Direct Broking has picked FTB as one of their 5 best shares for 2005 (not that a broker's opinion is worth Jack Sprat)

... and P Yu who has an unparalleled stock picking record reckons this share is rubbish!

There you have it. Three great reasons for buying FTB.

45 South,

Congratulations on your market research! But don't you think 5 minutes in a duty free shop at the airport is stretching the definition of a statistically significant sample?

[leanmeanfightingmachine]

not convinced. to much risk, better options out there. they need to find a few more good products for there stable.

can see them been picked off within a couple of years. just like frucor. but for a cheaper price of course.




quote:Originally posted by rmbbrave

"I no (sic) so many people who have brought this stock who no (sic) jack s___t about investing."

Those are fighting words Leanmeanfightingmachine.

I will have you know that I KNOW far more about investing than I do about the courting habits of the lesser spotted woodpecker.

... for your information Direct Broking has picked FTB as one of their 5 best shares for 2005 (not that a broker's opinion is worth Jack Sprat)

... and P Yu who has an unparalleled stock picking record reckons this share is rubbish!

There you have it. Three great reasons for buying FTB.

45 South,

Congratulations on your market research! But don't you think 5 minutes in a duty free shop at the airport is stretching the definition of a statistically significant sample?

[weasel]

quote:Originally posted by rmbbrave

"I no (sic) so many people who have brought (you missed this sic rmbrave!) this stock who no (sic) jack s___t about investing."

[Snow Leopard]

quote:Originally posted by weasel


quote:Originally posted by rmbbrave

"I no (sic) so many people who have brought (you missed this sic rmbrave!) this stock who no (sic) jack s___t about investing."



makes you sic to read it :)

[Shamrock]

quote:Originally posted by leanmeanfightingmachine


not convinced. to much risk, better options out there. they need to find a few more good products for there stable.

can see them been picked off within a couple of years. just like frucor. but for a cheaper price of course.



You've produced no evidence to substantiate those comments LMFM. If you want people to take your comments seriously it would be a good idea to back them up with facts.

Otherwise you're about as credible as those "so many people who ... know jack s___t about investing."

[nottiger]

quote:Originally posted by Shamrock


quote:Originally posted by leanmeanfightingmachine


not convinced. to much risk, better options out there. they need to find a few more good products for there stable.

can see them been picked off within a couple of years. just like frucor. but for a cheaper price of course.



You've produced no evidence to substantiate those comments LMFM. If you want people to take your comments seriously it would be a good idea to back them up with facts.

Otherwise you're about as credible as those "so many people who ... know jack s___t about investing."

[leanmeanfightingmachine]

risk 1 = spending money on marketing a product that already exists 1000 times over on this planet. They are doing nothing new in their field, this equals risk. ( Do you know how many flavoured Vodka's there are in the world?)
Dead simple.

risk 2 = It is very hard to find the best channels to market and distribute products if you go abroad. especilly when you are a new player in a topped up industry full of big players who spend more money on the fridges that their products sit in than their products themselves.

these two points are based on my 5yrs at southcorp wines and my last 5yrs in advertising working on similar products globally.

I am not anti 42below i do like there products but there's more to it than having pretty products in this industry.

Leanmeanfightingmachine





quote:Originally posted by Shamrock


quote:Originally posted by leanmeanfightingmachine


not convinced. to much risk, better options out there. they need to find a few more good products for there stable.

can see them been picked off within a couple of years. just like frucor. but for a cheaper price of course.



You've produced no evidence to substantiate those comments LMFM. If you want people to take your comments seriously it would be a good idea to back them up with facts.

Otherwise you're about as credible as those "so many people who ... know jack s___t about investing."

[nottiger]

Oops I meant to say

HEY go easy on Jack S___t

Here is his pic!

http://images.google.com/imgres?imgurl=http://www.canadianhorseracinghalloffame.com/builders/images/JackShort.jpg&imgrefurl=http://www.canadianhorseracinghalloffame.com/builders/1987/Jack_Short.htm&h=196&w=156&sz=4&tbnid=aMzTM5JgWTQJ:&tbnh=98&tbnw=78&start=1&prev=/images%3Fq%3D%2522Jack%2BShort%2522%26hl%3Den%26lr %3D%26sa%3DG%26as_qdr%3Dall

[lambton]

quote:Originally posted by rmbbrave

"I no (sic) so many people who have brought this stock who no (sic) jack s___t about investing."

Those are fighting words Leanmeanfightingmachine.

I will have you know that I KNOW far more about investing than I do about the courting habits of the lesser spotted woodpecker.

... for your information Direct Broking has picked FTB as one of their 5 best shares for 2005 (not that a broker's opinion is worth Jack Sprat)

... and P Yu who has an unparalleled stock picking record reckons this share is rubbish!

There you have it. Three great reasons for buying FTB.

45 South,

Congratulations on your market research! But don't you think 5 minutes in a duty free shop at the airport is stretching the definition of a statistically significant sample?



Then again Direct (Dorchester) floated this baby - maybe they need to pump the price?

[rmbbrave]

quote:Originally posted by weasel


quote:Originally posted by rmbbrave

"I no (sic) so many people who have brought (you missed this sic rmbrave!) this stock who no (sic) jack s___t about investing."




Thanks very much Weasel.

[Shamrock]

LMFM,

Okay, at least we now know your reasons more clearly -
btw I agree with you about the risks

I believe that if one is prepared to accept the risks
you've outlined, then there are sound reasons to invest
in this growth stock

I disagree that their marketing is run-of-the-mill.
This is evidence on this thread, and the previous one.
If you've been involved in the industry you might know
much more than I do about that though.

It's a given that with any company like this, trying to
find a niche in a crowded market will always take a combination
of innovation and sweat. Should FTB succeed the rewards
will be well worth the risk.

The risk for the private investor can be minimised by a
sound exit strategy. The 'people who know jack-s..t about
investing' as you put it, should not be involved in this
stock unless they understand and are happy to accept the
associated risks

This has been my best investment over the past 12 months
(I've doubled my money) but I'm well aware of the conditions
which need to be met for me to sell. At the moment, a drop below
57 cents would set the alarm bells ringing

To everyone who has accepted the risk in this share, bought in,
and is skilled enough to manage it effectively, good luck to them

Conversely, if you're inexperienced at investing, you need to
have a sound exit strategy - or be prepared to lose your money

[leanmeanfightingmachine]

correct, i agree with everything you said. sounds like you have done well out of this stock by getting in early. i think though that the price has been pushed up by a certain type of investor who buys with their heart and not with their head ( But not all investors though ) with FTB been one of these stocks. If you can see this you will do well with similar stocks. I like to think of these stocks as 'glamour stocks'.

So with this in mind a exit plan is required for FTB.

Just a small note: I also think canwest could be similar (but a more profitable company of course). i made sure i was on with canwest early.

Similar to FTB there alot of people i know or of who work in media that have thrown big into this stock. They all brought because everyone in the industry they work with was telling them to. They own one stock and that's it. I am not saying it's a bad buy though- just highlighting a type of investor which can push up the price.

Another way at looking at this is compare Provenco with 42 Below.

Leanmeanfightingmachine





quote:Originally posted by Shamrock

LMFM,

Okay, at least we now know your reasons more clearly -
btw I agree with you about the risks

I believe that if one is prepared to accept the risks
you've outlined, then there are sound reasons to invest
in this growth stock

I disagree that their marketing is run-of-the-mill.
This is evidence on this thread, and the previous one.
If you've been involved in the industry you might know
much more than I do about that though.

It's a given that with any company like this, trying to
find a niche in a crowded market will always take a combination
of innovation and sweat. Should FTB succeed the rewards
will be well worth the risk.

The risk for the private investor can be minimised by a
sound exit strategy. The 'people who know jack-s..t about
investing' as you put it, should not be involved in this
stock unless they understand and are happy to accept the
associated risks

This has been my best investment over the past 12 months
(I've doubled my money) but I'm well aware of the conditions
which need to be met for me to sell. At the moment, a drop below
57 cents would set the alarm bells ringing

To everyone who has accepted the risk in this share, bought in,
and is skilled enough to manage it effectively, good luck to them

Conversely, if you're inexperienced at investing, you need to
have a sound exit strategy - or be prepared to lose your money

[limegreen]

LMFM, I'm not sure that working for Southcorp and in advertising brings a lot to thinking about FTB. I also don't think comparing FTB to Frucor is too valid either. Frucor were giving the big players a real run for their money (I was in part convinced because V was cheaper and tasted better than Red Bull). FTB is more like a Phoenix cola or a boutique winery. If they can maintain a brand and a dedicated clientele they may be very profitable, but in a very different way to Southcorp.

[leanmeanfightingmachine]

I think working for southcorp gave a great insite on the NZ/ Aussie wine and hard booze market and how it is run from a big company perspective. There are direct links to FTB and what they are doing because FTB is trying to get into there distribution channels. That's why they signed up with carton united, because they carn't do it themselves.

Regards to advertiisng: working on a range of big booze brands globally also helps because you get a direct insite to how the trade side works and how consumers view brands. Which views are supported by cold hard consumer research. You actually touched on one of these consumer insights yourself. It been that you like V because it is cheaper. How interesting. But is price a good way to postion a competitior to red bull? What do you think?

The reason i find frocur and FTB similar is that they are both have and will come across similar problems when trying to get thier hero products abroad into bigger markets. this takes money and alot of it. That's why Coke supplies fridges for there products. Keeps their products in front of the consumers, which equals sales. Now phonix has to go sit in the crap/cheap fridge with 20 other products meaning slow sales. Now the same thing happens in the booze industry with self space and floor space. meaning you pay for display areas through reduced wholesale deals, resulting in reduced margins. A bit of 'you scratch my back i 'll scratch your's. And this takes money and alot of it.

Leanmeanfightingmachine










quote:Originally posted by limegreen

LMFM, I'm not sure that working for Southcorp and in advertising brings a lot to thinking about FTB. I also don't think comparing FTB to Frucor is too valid either. Frucor were giving the big players a real run for their money (I was in part convinced because V was cheaper and tasted better than Red Bull). FTB is more like a Phoenix cola or a boutique winery. If they can maintain a brand and a dedicated clientele they may be very profitable, but in a very different way to Southcorp.

[limegreen]

I liked V because it tasted better. I would never buy red bull, as it's too much money for a soft-drink.

That's all by-the-by really. I'm not FTB expert (I don't hold and am not looking to), but I know that Frucor had a much wider product base than FTB.
Is FTB trying to get some distribution organised, or are they planning on being the next smirnoff?

I'm just curious, as I understand the big company logistics, but wonder if that's really quite what FTB is aiming at. I don't believe Phoenix sells because of it's advertising (I've never noticed any myself), but more because some people like it/ like organic products, so it's a different mindset. And I'd have thought that FTB might be aiming for something a bit similar.


quote:cold hard consumer research

I'm sorry, but that made me laugh. Consumer research is fairly bunk. I design data collection tools regularly, and the quality of most of it is extremely dubious (e.g., questions so biased the answer is a function of the question not the consumer preference).

[The Doctor]

"niche marketing' can suceed so long as competitors are seen as 'me too' products...Red Bull was a fantastic revamping of an old product 'Kratingdang' popular in Thailand as an energy boost syrup and carbonated by very savvy Swiss entrepreneurs.Cost is not as important in this energy drink market...perception is reality...Coca Cola with its huge reources introduced energy drinks one after the other that are huge flops.!FTB 's only 'strength' is the flavoured vodkas...the best hope for shareholders is a buy out from a major int liquor coy...like Danone that took out Frucor if that is the cheaper option for mkt penetration...they will take it...so saying FTB has no U.S.P!

[marinesalvor]

please can you guys talk the price down a little so I can top up - ta

[spector]

quote:Originally posted by marinesalvor

please can you guys talk the price down a little so I can top up - ta


there's no way this company can succeed... ummm... they are taking you all for a ride and pocketing all the profits of mum and dad investors... they can't compete with Absolut.. I've been in marketing for 40 years so I should know... the current uptrend is just because amatuer investors are buying this stock for irrational reasons.... the company has no fridges... also I just flew in from somewhere and I didn't buy any at the airport.

How's that bro?

Disc: my entire portfolio is FTB - with a standing offer to buy any FTB shares off investors who got suckered in to the IPO hype for 50c a share.

[marinesalvor]

cool thanks Spector - maybe we need to wheel in Mr P Yu again too??

[blackcap]

quote:Originally posted by marinesalvor

cool thanks Spector - maybe we need to wheel in Mr P Yu again too??




No no dont do that, please, unless he is going to talk the share up.

If he talks it down it will only accelerate in value.

What about Minder. Strange that hes gone quiet on this one.

[marinesalvor]

Mr P Yu was just overseas - whats the bet he bought a few bottles duty free on the way in?

[Shamrock]

"What about Minder. Strange that hes gone quiet on this one."

No it's not. He's not made of the stuff to admit when he's wrong, just when everybody else is.

[Golfer]

Opinions on warrants versus head shares plse. i.e best buy. Thks

[spector]

quote:Originally posted by Golfer

Opinions on warrants versus head shares plse. i.e best buy. Thks


If you ask Phaedrus nicely he/she might provide you with a chart of FTB's performance to date. Conservatively extend the curve to give you a rough idea of what the B warrants will be worth when they mature in 2006.

[The Doctor]

this share will go down like a lead Zeppelin within 2years....has all the Hallmarks ,btw whats the p.e.All Hype just like Mike!

[spector]

quote:Originally posted by The Doctor

this share will go down like a lead Zeppelin within 2years....has all the Hallmarks ,btw whats the p.e.All Hype just like Mike!


What are the Hallmarks Doc? Are you suggesting it will continue up for two years and then come down? And if so what price will it go up too? what are you basing this assumption on? etc...

[spector]

quote from Shares.net.nz

" Recommendations 2005 www.shares.net.nz TOP 5 Broker picks and more

Welcome to our first issue of www.shares.net.nz for 2005.Hopefully this finds you relaxed rested and ready for a good 2005.This site specialises in providing you with investment ideas and information particularly with regard to smaller companies which are often not covered by the larger brokers.

Our performance from last year where Direct Broking won the “2004 Brokers Picks” with a 62% gain will be hard to emulate, but be rest assured we would like to make it two in a row.

Down to business then and here are Direct Brokings top 5 picks for 2005 and some of the reasons they were selected. I have also included several other companies that just missed the cut.

42 Below (FTB)

“It’s hard to find another stock on the New Zealand market that has the potential to grow sales like 42 Below “Jan 10th New Zealand Herald 2004.

Twelve months later the story hasn’t changed, we are forecasting 42 Belows sales of Vodka and South Gin to top100000 cases (for those that like a little trivia that’s 400 Kilometres of bottles laid end on end).

To put this into context remember that 42 Below makes twice the gross margin as New Zealand’s wine companies on a bottle of product.

The New Zealand market is now consistently profitable and the Australian market should be profitable this quarter on the back of the distribution agreement with Fosters and Carlton United beverages.

The US market is continuing to show good growth but because of its size will take longer to become profitable. 42 Below released its honey and manuka vodka in the US in November where it has already won a gold medal at the SIAL awards in France in 2004 (the only Vodka ever to get a gold) and more recently Gold at the Beverage tasting institute awards in Chicago. South has also just launched in the US with a positive start.

The Hong Kong, Malaysian and Singapore markets are at a similar stage to the New Zealand market 18 months ago.

Proven entrepreneurial management also adds interest to the stock."

[Shamrock]

Those interested in using a technical exit strategy ought to consider plotting FTB using a linear, rather than the more conventional log scale.

So far there have been at least two confirmations of the linear trendline, thus providing a much better fit to the observed price action.

[nottiger]

As I am not a vodka drinker I need to ask a question - What other companies are marketing fruit-flavoured vodka?Seems to me that very few are? - and there in lies [u]both</u> FTB's problem and opportunity

A problem because they are having to create a new sub category...but

An opportunity because they can focus and grow with the buzz of a new category

Seem to be doing it so far?

[marinesalvor]

Notiger - success of Absolut and their flavoured range is the model for FTB

[nottiger]

quote:Originally posted by marinesalvor

Notiger - success of Absolut and their flavoured range is the model for FTB


M_ S

So was Absolut first with fruit flavouring?

If so then the point of diference reduces to unique brand work and weird country of origin !

[marinesalvor]

yes I think they were

and both those points of diff worked for Absolut - and a clever NZ co is well placed to do the same

cheers

[Studson]

Nottiger,

And the fact that it is triple distilled product made from natural spring water i.e. free from impurities. tests can be done to determine the quaility of the water and springs are most often very very clean. This is part of the marketing strategy. I also recall buying a bottle soemtime ago and the entire top had been dipped in a green wax type substance. Made for an awsome seal, a bit of an eyecatcher too. All helps.

To the best of my knowledge, yes Absolut did it first, but someone may correct me on that. I have tried Absolut current (or black current - maybe one in the same) & Absolut citrus. Both tasty drops.

Cheers studson

THE KING says Studson Jr the Sample man tell us did you BUY any WHATEVER.. [^][^][^]

[nottiger]

quote:Originally posted by Studson

Nottiger,

And the fact that it is triple distilled product made from natural spring water i.e. free from impurities. tests can be done to determine the quaility of the water and springs are most often very very clean. This is part of the marketing strategy.

Yep it's so pure you could redeem herself with one sip......... nope I think it's more about what teh punter thinks of purity - it's more about perception.

EG It may well be that any vodka is purer than [u]any </u>water due to distillation - so perhaps we should all drink.........any vodka????????

So purity is a story - nice simple one - and if enough of this large market cares about purity and believes FTB is purer![:o)] then FTB are looking good[8D]

In the end FTB is a cheap to produce chemical diluted with water - there must be some margin!

FTB have identified a story about purity/NZ - combined with funky design/marketing, and a "win the bartenders over" strategy

Seems to me the whole package is good enough to get a single figure percentage of the market in a decade - but even a couple of % - a solid niche would be a pretty damn good company to own a bit of

WIll be interesting to see if the momentum can be maintained

[limegreen]

quote:triple distilled product made from natural spring water i.e. free from impurities.

That's pretty dubious. Spring water is usually very impure, but has the type of purities we find tasty. Spring water is usually chock full of minerals, and mountain stream water (another one of those "pure" water benchmarks) is usually full of carbon compounds picked up as it filters through tussock etc. before making it into the stream. If you ever taste actual pure water, you'll find it's quite disgusting.

Distillation is also not neccessarily a method for removing impurities. Although with vodka they try to remove as much impurity as possible by trying to extract only water and ethanol from the distillation process, it is usually only charcoal filtered in addition to the distillation, so any compounds that have similar boiling points are likely to remain.

[Studson]

Fellas, I didnt have it quite right but what they do is triple distill the wheat and the wash it in spring water, why?, to wash out the impurities, why? beacuse it has the highest purity rating possible, Aa. Check out the site. I dont think they class the presence of 'good' minerals as impurities (things like alkalinity, hardness etc) except if they exceed 50% of the maximum acceptable value for any one of those (DWSNZ 2000). you're right the disitillation process does not remove ions like Ca2+ or CO32- etc so it would make sense to put it through an activated carbon filter to pull out any ions left in solution.

Nottiger, yea its about perception for sure which is why they choose to inform everyone of their water source. You would'nt exactly broadcast it if you where getting it from the Thames river even though their water treatment processes cleans the water so that it is apparently safe to drink even though statistically its been 'through' at least 13 people before you drink it!! Mmmm mmm

BTW, THE KING FYI, I often drink the juice and own FTBWA-lots of em:D[:p][^]. I presume thats wot u were wantin 2 no butt u're England aint to flash so I had to gess. You should suss out punkuashun.[^]

[spector]

interesting....

http://travel.timesonline.co.uk/article/0,,10294-1439787,00.html

FTB getting in bed with the right chaps....

[The Doctor]

is that a 'queer' post ..spector?

[spector]

quote:Originally posted by spector

interesting....

http://travel.timesonline.co.uk/article/0,,10294-1439787,00.html

FTB getting in bed with the right chaps....



This is an article in the London Times talking about a new exclusive hotel in the french alps.... but what's interesting is that it talks about 42 BELOW being a feature of the bar in the hotel! That's pretty impressive.

....."With Downey’s bar pedigree, you expect the Clubhouse bar to be special. The bar stocks Compass Box hand-crafted whiskies and New Zealand’s 42 Below vodka and makes scrummy cocktails...."

[Bobby_Fischer]

Have been playing about with Google trying to get some kind of handle on 42 below penetration into the (roughly) US market vs. other Vodka brands.

Have run a search for web pages containing the brand name (as below) and also containing the words "vodka" and "price" (trying to target retail sites only). Only web pages modified within the last 12 months found on .com sites are counted.

Here are the results:
<pre id="code">
Rank Brand Page Count
------- -------------- ----------
1 Absolut 31300
2 Smirnoff 17700
3 Grey Goose 11000
4 Stolichnaya 7980
5 Belvedere 6940
6 Skyy 6680
7 Vampire 4850
8 Ketel One 4220
9 Finlandia 4090
10 Boru 1960
11 Black Death 1780
12 Red Army 1570
13 Three Olives 1490
14 Cristall 1260
15 Blavod 899
16 42 Below 891
17 Turi 662
18 Redd 442
19 Jewel of Russia 324
20 Van Ho 25
21 Tovtry 23
</pre id="code">
What brands have I missed? Will repost this data periodically so progress, or lack thereof, can be assessed.

KW they sent shareholders a coupon for $10.00 if I remember correctly off a bottle of their GIN. Only in certain stores in NZ though.

[Bobby_Fischer]

Directors have all sold a sizeable chunk of their Series 1 warrants today. If my maths is correct, sales are at 5.5 cents. Massive discount to today's closing price. I guess they will all get unloaded eventually, else they will need to front up with more cash. Still, the size of the discount is a bit of a surprise.

[spector]

This just in... I guess all the shareholders cashed in their $10-off vouchers.



Thursday January 20, 4:10 AM
NZ's 42 Below Says 3Q Sales Revenue Exceeded Expectations

WELLINGTON (Dow Jones)--Vodka and gin maker 42 Below (FTB.NZ) said Thursday that revenue for the three months to Dec. 31 exceeded expectations.

Revenue in the three months was NZ$4.08 million from 23,229 cases of spirits sold, the company said in a statement to the New Zealand Exchange.

In November the company said it expected sales of at least NZ$3.3 million in the three months to December, which is its financial third quarter.

"The final quarter of the financial year is traditionally the time of lowest demand in a number of the company's markets," 42 Below said.

"The company still holds this view and believes fourth quarter revenue will be lower than that achieved in the December quarter."

However, it said it expects to achieve higher revenue, greater case sales and a smaller loss than in the first half, when it made a loss of NZ$1.3 million.

- By Christopher Niesche, Dow Jones Newswires; 64-4-471-5990; christopher.niesche@dowjones.com

[The Doctor]

'spinning,spinning,spinning'...LOSS will only be about $2.9mil this Quarter....burn baby burn...but hey just like One Tel ..what a luxurious ride for the principals...selling warrants like theres no tomorrow!..no tomorrow?

[Golfer]

Doc, with the upmost of respect - you're not picking this one to well;)


quote:Originally posted by The Doctor

'spinning,spinning,spinning'...LOSS will only be about $2.9mil this Quarter....burn baby burn...but hey just like One Tel ..what a luxurious ride for the principals...selling warrants like theres no tomorrow!..no tomorrow?

[rmbbrave]

quote:Originally posted by The Doctor

'spinning,spinning,spinning'...LOSS will only be about $2.9mil this Quarter....burn baby burn...but hey just like One Tel ..what a luxurious ride for the principals...selling warrants like theres no tomorrow!..no tomorrow?


It appears you may be the new P Yu. Up 8% today!

[marinesalvor]

just as well - since we seem to have lost the old Mr P Yu

[Placebo]

quote:Up 8% today!

Hooray!

Just been having a look at the warrants. This is where the real price action has been. 2005 warrants have been doing nothing for the past year and suddenly spiked up 10c (from 15c) this month. 2006 warrants are also on the way up. People thinking the share price will be upwards of 75-80c come Sept 2005...

Disc: Hold A and B warrants and looking likely to convert!

[spector]

FTB should make a 'humble-pie' flavoured vodka. There seems to be a big market for it. :)

[craic]

Simple arithmetic. $5000 invested in Oct 03 float is now worth $7,624 on today's price. That's 52.48% in 16 months.

[KJ]

Or FTBwb's-paid 16cents in June (refer my post at the time Minder)
So nearly 100% in 6 mths-The Doctor, you are starting to sound like Minder!!!

[rmbbrave]

quote:Originally posted by marinesalvor

just as well - since we seem to have lost the old Mr P Yu


Duncan foolishly got him banned.

He had almost a 100% record!

[spector]

Huzzah! 72c! Anyone know where the renewed interest is coming from?

[Placebo]

Decent volume too, 140,000 shares which is reasonably high for FTB

[Signal]

Direct Broking were a strong buyer through 70c this morning. They were the organising broker I think and will be close to the company, could be acting for someone close to the company - some news to come? Who knows but the trendline has been clear for a long time and reconfirmed several times.

Lots of buyer support (570,000 bid back to 60c), very few sellers (only a total of 21,700 up to 85c). Perhaps MINDER will reappear soon and remind me why this supply/demand situation is about to suddenly reverse and that my 40% paper profit to date will soon evaporate and become a substantial loss. At times like this it is easy to forget that I am simply a "Fool to Be".

[spector]

75!

I'm sorry MINDER but the house this fool-to-be mortgaged last year to buy FTB just became freehold!

[rotsevni]

Signal, how can you tell who is buying and selling on a particular day?

[Gryffyn]

Signal - it's all good and minder seems very quiet but you get to klaugh loudest when the profits move off the paper and into your pocket.

A happy fool.

[Signal]

Exactly Gryffyn, certainly not profit yet, but we'd be fools to sell now given the supply/demand balance.

Closed at 75c I see, more sellers will emerge tomorrow to take profits so possibly some consolidation around the 70c region as buyers and seller reach a concensus on a re-rated price level. Then hopefully a continuation of the trend.

[cozmo]

Heaps of mellonheads falling for this hype! Do yourself a favour and do a little research on the product. Go to their website and call a few of the location llist to see how well its moving in those locations. I tried a few in the US and not one of them said it was moving too fast. A few of them have even removed it from the shelves allready....

[Gryffyn]

um, half-assed anecdotal asides don't stack up against the market! Who cares what an individual punters experience of the product is! The posts are just examples of self-selecting samples.

It might all go (vodka) pear shaped but right now the market has a valuation on it and people who IPOd or bought soon after can make $$$ right now.

[Gryffyn]

PS. Disc: sold out of head shares and have a few warrants.

[Gryffyn]

pps - hey cozmo, welcome. you seem to have cosen a well-wron thread and refrain for your first post.

what are your picks for the year?

[spector]

this just in from 'google alerts'... seems the New York Times rated 42 BELOW amongst their top ten vodkas...

http://www.scoop.co.nz/mason/stories/BU0501/S00165.htm


FTB seems to get alot more press overseas then it does here these days... has anybody else thought it weird that no papers have said anything about the ftb gains over the last 2 weeks?

[spector]

P.S. Happy Long Weekend one and all!

[Placebo]

Thanks Spector. We down this end of the nation have already enjoyed our long weekend ;)

I was interested in how many ST punters picked FTB for Paper Tiger's stock picking contest (thanks again PT). Clearly there is considerable confidence in this company's performance from people on these boards, and the market is reflecting that. Could this be the year of 42 Below?

I've been a holder since the IPO, and despite a few initial heebie jeebies I'm a satisfied holder. I intend to exercise the warrants on the original due date (September I think).

[The Doctor]

a clear example of 'hype' and sentiment over riding fundamentals and common sense....still if people are realising profits !!!Reminds me so much of 80's floats and also Onetel in Oz.Enjoy the ride because you can guarantee it will NOT be a 'soft landing'!

[Footsie]

black & Scholes

has anybody bothered to price up ftbwa or b?
given the vol i'd say they are trading below value.
i will try and run one tomorrow.
Can someone please post the closing prices for the past 12 months.
ta

FTSE

[spector]

the head share has hit a little hump at 75c... ok daily volumes but plenty of sellers... so i wouldn't expect a lift in warrants untill the head share gets upward momentum again..

[blackcap]

quote:Originally posted by spector

the head share has hit a little hump at 75c... ok daily volumes but plenty of sellers... so i wouldn't expect a lift in warrants untill the head share gets upward momentum again..


Well that hump has well and truly been surpassed with buyers now at 77. I am suprised to see this, but I guess the expectation must be good. Was talking to a friend from Australaia the other day and he loved the Feijoa flavoured stuff.

Anyway if I were going to buy FTB, I cannot understand how cheap the A warrants are compared to the shares. For a 1 cent premium you get 9 months worth of leverage. Too good an opportunity to miss. Sell heads and buy A warrants if you ask me.

[kittydashwood]

Agreed.
Great visibility ad on frontpage of marketwatch.
Several bars on Sunset BV have it sitting on the top shelf.
Part of Missy Elliot rider.

[Footsie]

I was unable to accurately calculate VOL, as I could only find price data for the last three months.

However, at 75c B&S prices FTBWA at 28c
The reason the market is not giving a greater value to 'time value' is that the option is SO far in the money it is made up almost intirely of 'intrinsic value' - so with a delta of 1, any shift in the head share from now on should equal a 1c rise in the option.
Implying a time value of around 3c a current prices.

Interstingly enought FTBWA only comes in at around 30c. This is showing that the market has an bias on upside VOL. However, I think it is probably a little over-priced. Given that again, delta is close to 1 and the option price should in theory be made up of almost intirely intrinsic value.

My advice. Sell the head share. GO long FTBWA. IF you own FTBWB, hold.

[spector]

quote:Originally posted by kittydashwood

Agreed.
Great visibility ad on frontpage of marketwatch.
Several bars on Sunset BV have it sitting on the top shelf.
Part of Missy Elliot rider.



A mate of mine in london emailed me today saying ARENA magazine voted 42 BELOW number 1 vodka in europe and did a four page spread on them! Go the alcoholic kiwi battler!:)

weird trades today though.... big shift in warrant price on very little trade... the B warrants are crazily overpriced compared to the A's and heads.

[Shamrock]

Spector, I reckon the FTBWB price is highly indicative of the direction the market is expecting the company's head share price to go.

[spector]

quote:Originally posted by Shamrock

Spector, I reckon the FTBWB price is highly indicative of the direction the market is expecting the company's head share price to go.


possibly.... no ones in a hurry to sell B warrants that's for sure... and little or no trading in the A warrants or head shares.. but their price has stayed consistent... it feels like everyone is holding and waiting for some more news to come from the company. Anyone know when FTB announce their next round of results?

[Shamrock]

Late April-early May I believe. (FY to 31 March.)

[spector]

quote:Originally posted by Shamrock

Late April-early May I believe. (FY to 31 March.)


cheers mate

[spector]

This is from the latest shares.net newsletter...

"...Hopefully our latest 42 Below upgrade report will be available early next week, our 12 month target for FTB is .96 cents...."

not sure where shares.net's 12 month period ends but I assume it's the normal April/May end of year. Nice to see a bit of movement in the stock again yesterday.

[spector]

82 for heads, 32 for A's and 41 for B's... go! you little kiwi vodka go!

[marinesalvor]

yep - every day is a good day at the moment!

Has anyone tried the kiwifruit drop????

[spector]

quote:Originally posted by blackcap

Well that hump has well and truly been surpassed with buyers now at 77. I am suprised to see this, but I guess the expectation must be good. Was talking to a friend from Australaia the other day and he loved the Feijoa flavoured stuff.

Anyway if I were going to buy FTB, I cannot understand how cheap the A warrants are compared to the shares. For a 1 cent premium you get 9 months worth of leverage. Too good an opportunity to miss. Sell heads and buy A warrants if you ask me.


.... by the way Blackcap, I took your advice the other week and sold a bunch of head shares to get more A's and B's.... turns out it was a pretty good piece of advice so thanks for that.

[The GrandMaster]

quote:Originally posted by spector


.... by the way Blackcap, I took your advice the other week and sold a bunch of head shares to get more A's and B's.... turns out it was a pretty good piece of advice so thanks for that.


could of . . . should of . . . DIDN'T :(

[blackcap]

Interesting stuff this.

FTB now has a market cap of $100 million and once options are exercised one can add another 15 million to that. Starting to look like one of the bigger companies on the NZX.

What I would like to know is what has been the price driver in the last few days?

Anyone got any ideas?

[nottiger]

quote:Originally posted by blackcap

Interesting stuff this.

What I would like to know is what has been the price driver in the last few days?

Anyone got any ideas?


MMMMM.... So in a year when profits are a-flowing ...........could the market revalue FTB to a PE of 50 to 60X like Pumpkin Patch???..........and FTB be a 200M company????

Seems possible? This business is nicely scalable into a very large market.............

Other thoughts here?

[rmbbrave]

quote:Originally posted by blackcap

Interesting stuff this.

FTB now has a market cap of $100 million and once options are exercised one can add another 15 million to that. Starting to look like one of the bigger companies on the NZX.

What I would like to know is what has been the price driver in the last few days?

Anyone got any ideas?


Irrational Exuberance?

[Artful Dodger]

In 2004, Grey Goose, a french super-premium vodka, sold for US$2.5 Billion to Barcardi Brown Forman after making some inroads into the US and UK markets.

[$imon]

If the shareprice keeps rising at this rate, it'll be FTB taking over Bacardi in a few years! [:p]

[blackcap]

quote:Originally posted by bongo66

How much money has this company made so far?


Bongo mate

Your above comment isnt important. How much money has WHS made?

Look whats happening to its shareprice.

Its all about the expectation of earnings that is the driver behind a shareprice. Obviously investors are expecting FTB to make more money in future and WHS to make less.

[The Doctor]

rmbbrave......exactly...80's corp syndrome...revisited!

[spector]

I think that people are now seeing FTB as "new zealand based company" rather than just a "new zealand company".

By that I mean that people now see future FTB profit will come from the international market not just the domestic market. If you take the Carlton Breweries deal for example, you've got Australasias biggest distribution network pushing only one premium vodka... 42 Below... that has to make a significant increase in 42 sales... and that's just Australia. Then when you factor in getting rated by ARENA magazine in Europe as the number one vodka (with a four page spread in their magazine!)... the international growth potential is huge... even when you take off your rose coloured glasses!

I personally think that because of the bad press the company recieved when it listed the directors are deliberately projecting conservative growth figures to the market to make sure they always achieve projections. They have said they will be in profit by the end of this financial year but I wouldn't be surprised if they are already making profit... which would explain the current sharp uptrend.

I hate to sound like a NOG ramper talking up unrealised future gains... but I really do think FTB is good for the long haul.

[boring]

Where's minder these days ?

Those that bought in at the original float price and held on are now sitting on very lucrative unrealised gain. This share may have defied it's fundamentals in terms of normal valuation criteria we apply to non start-ups, but there's no denying that there has been a lot of money made for traders and speculators.

One may as well stay on the ride as long as the news stays good. Question is, if results do disappoint, will there be a rush for the exit ?

I wish I had taken that speculative punt, especially when the price was in the mid-30 cent range. It's that classic risk/reward play in action.

[Gryffyn]

Crying in his cups I guess. Still a speculative holding but no complaints right now.

[The Doctor]

yes in the 80's Kiwi businessmen became mysteriously 'smarter' than anywhere else in the world...'flowers or finance' it didn't matter ...the 'world was their oyster'.....but of course this is different...this is vodka and everyone knows if its one thing NZ is renown for its great vodka!An old tradition that no one else on the planet has been able to emulate.....don't be 'fuelled' ...100million dollar company!!wow does it cure cancer?....beware the massive 'hangover'!

[Gryffyn]

Looks like we have a new, and gentler, pretender to Minders throne ;)

[The Doctor]

there does appear to be a 'surfeit of vacancies'....re this particular thread!

[Placebo]

Thanks Doc. Always nice to have someone bring us back to reality. Even if that reality is at 84c.