42 Below - Beyond the IPO...

[KJ]

Doc-your comments are fair enough-IMO everyone who has bought recognises the risk.I still think it has a good chance of moving into profit and eventually being bought by some large player.

As I have said before,like many my outlay and risk are small-in my case 40,000 b warrants at 16c.Sure,they could be worth nothing in a mths time,but.....

[spector]

quote:Originally posted by The Doctor

there does appear to be a 'surfeit of vacancies'....re this particular thread!


other points of view are always welcome.... for a while it was just me talking to me:)

[spector]

quote:Originally posted by The Doctor

yes in the 80's Kiwi businessmen became mysteriously 'smarter' than anywhere else in the world...'flowers or finance' it didn't matter ...the 'world was their oyster'.....but of course this is different...this is vodka and everyone knows if its one thing NZ is renown for its great vodka!An old tradition that no one else on the planet has been able to emulate.....don't be 'fuelled' ...100million dollar company!!wow does it cure cancer?....beware the massive 'hangover'!


It wasn't just Kiwi businessmen Doc, it was businessmen the world over... and when the crash came it affected conservative companies just as it affected highly speculative companies. There were certainly crooked players in the market back then but I'm not sure why you think FTB is a crooked player now? So far FTB has exceeded the growth targets they have given the market and have been very clear about their future intentions.

If you think FTB is crooked tell us what you base this on... or if you think they haven't sold as much vodka as they say they have then tell us why... sweeping statements about the 80's or about how FTB will fall over at some undisclosed time in the future aren't really arguments.

PS. This is not a personal attack by the way Doc, I'm always open to others reasoning.:)

[The Doctor]

deregulation in 1984 was the catalyst for the 'explosion' of listed coys.....NZ's corporate governance was virtually non existant,exactly why the Hawkins of the world preferred to'face the music' here.NO OTHER country experienced the rise and crash to the same degree.The comparison with 42B is relevant...a 'greenfields' operation ,all the hype and spin,optimistic projections ,but the fundamentals of the coys performance bear no relation to the SP!The ticket has 'been clipped' already ...35mil goodwill---preposterous,buyback of U.S dist/mktg deal,mkt manipulation,placement by brokers...and unashamed ramping by investors based on??What % of the global mkt share have they acquired?...what profits are being made?What is the p/e of this coy,WHAT IS THE UNIQUE SELLING PROPOSITION that they enjoy.How much competition is there?All sentiment and NO substance,all sizzle....where and when does the 'sausage' arrive....history always repeats...ask the investors in ONETEL...same bluesky b/s.

[blackcap]

quote:Originally posted by The Doctor

deregulation in 1984 was the catalyst for the 'explosion' of listed coys.....NZ's corporate governance was virtually non existant,exactly why the Hawkins of the world preferred to'face the music' here.NO OTHER country experienced the rise and crash to the same degree.The comparison with 42B is relevant...a 'greenfields' operation ,all the hype and spin,optimistic projections ,but the fundamentals of the coys performance bear no relation to the SP!The ticket has 'been clipped' already ...35mil goodwill---preposterous,buyback of U.S dist/mktg deal,mkt manipulation,placement by brokers...and unashamed ramping by investors based on??What % of the global mkt share have they acquired?...what profits are being made?What is the p/e of this coy,WHAT IS THE UNIQUE SELLING PROPOSITION that they enjoy.How much competition is there?All sentiment and NO substance,all sizzle....where and when does the 'sausage' arrive....history always repeats...ask the investors in ONETEL...same bluesky b/s.


Doctor what you say may be true, but who cares. If ppl are willing to pay 85 cents for a FTB share that is their problem. However if FTB are misleading the market by announcing sales that are actually non existent then I would have a problem. Dont follow your argument about optimistic expectations, because to date I think most expectations have been exceeded.

THe ramping argument dosnt hold with me either. If ppl buy or sell shares based on what some annoymous pseudonym has written they need their head examined and I say let them take the fall if there is one. It may teach them a lessson.

cherio

[Placebo]

Doc I welcome your scepticism. Without these sort of views, we would all continue just navel-gazing and falling in love with our own hype. For me the comments make me look more closely at the company and see whether what is happening has any foundation, are the expectations realistic, is there honesty in reporting, all of the points Doc raises. I think investors are wise to scrutinise their purchases carefully, not just before they buy in, but while they hold as well. The stronger the criticism, and the more the company is able to withstand that scrutiny, then the stronger it must be.

For now, I don't see any cracks in the FTB wall.

Happy to hold heads, As and Bs.

[Bubble Boy]

Best debate for a long time. Beats the "my wife likes fejoa" and "saw them in duty free in Melbourne" comments.

IMHO, 85c is ludicrous. 40c maybe, but 85c, come on?? There is some serious expectation built into that price. You guys realise they are only going to turn over about $15m this year?

Plus with sharks like these on the FTB board, i know who they are looking after and it aint the small shareholders. Risky stuff. Gamble on.

[spector]

just to answer your points DOC... i have no idea what percentage of the world vodka market FTB has... but the world vodka market is measured in billions of dollars.. so even if FTB had only a fraction of 1% of the world market then you could argue that the current share price is totally resonable.

I don't know what their current sales are either... but we do know that they have been higher than projected for every quarter so far, and as long as they continue to grow and exceed conservative projections I imagine the share price will continue to do the same.

I've also gone back through all the company releases to see if they haven't delivered on any of their projections and as far as I can tell the company has delivered a sausage with every sizzle.

I'm liking the debate though so keep it up.

[The Doctor]

an 'admans' job is to influence and persuade...give Baked Beans X a 'character' an 'identity'...a brand ...no holds barred !This is a skilful adman at work...product placement,spin ...he knows it all...put the 'bottom line' under the microscope..what have you got?Talk about 'champagne(vodka) wishes and caviar dreams' this fella is good.When you get the 'glazed eyed' comments like...'this is a NZ based coy 'you start to wonder...would you like to sign up for the Destiny church...special offer to FTB shareholders...if you make money ,its part of the game...don't stay too long!!

[$imon]

U got a problem with watties baked beans doc? I'm sure they are profitable. Does that make the marketing spin worthless? Is has it added value to the product and turned it into a cash cow for the owner?

People who slag marketing as a sideshow to the real business are clearly mentally impaired. Every successful product we buy is almost entirely due to marketing, they were all loss makers to begin with. It was the marketing that eventually turned them into a winner. Therefore, FTB holders should be over the moon they have one of the best marketers in the business on their side!!!

Cheers,
$imon

[The Doctor]

its quite simple...Simon...what you need and what you want are two different things.....the marketing here is not only the product...its a 'dream' ...i.e. the company itself...suggested reading for you ...Vance Packard!

[KJ]

Doc-they have won a number of international awards for the quality of the product-surely this is a big plus.
Must enhance the marketing push and give it some foundation.

[The Doctor]

without harping negativity ....awards re alcohol are truley 'a dime a dozen'....any product can win one ...thats fact!If investors really think this is a $100mil coy...based on ANYTHING...it beggars belief!

[KJ]

But Doc-someone thought that Grey Goose was worth a fortune and paid a fortune for it.They bought the brand.

The value that is being created is building a brand that will have huge value-international awards help build the brand.Itis the brand that enables a premium price to be achieved.

How much is the FTB brand worth so far? Maybe more than you think.

[melsmith90210]

I would like to add my 2c worth to this from afar. Living in London and being of that age group where I have enough disposable income and a large group of friends who frequent the supposed hot spots of dirty old London town then I can report that 42 below is already making huge inroads to the Premium vodka market. It is seen as the hip vodka to be drinking around the traps and has even got pride of place on the shops of Selfridges no mean feat at all. I know that all this does not look at the business fundementals but if it is flying off the shelves (which bar people all telling me it is) then that has to be good for the company. I purchased these shares after the float hype based on what I am seeing and for the following reason.....these guys will become a big enough pain in the butt for one of the major players, think V, and someone will buy these guys out.....fact.

Anyway as seen from afar....but the London market is 1000 times bigger than little old NZ....trust me a Monday night at any bar up here is busier than a Friday or Saturday at those dirty old bars in the Viaduct like Soul...and I can only assume that this goes for the US where I saw 42 on the shelves of several bars in NY.

Hold it....will hold it long term but not that stupid to not have a stop in place should it go pear while I sleep....mmmm pear nice flavour

[imac_jim]

The stuff (plain) tastes good straight and thats the important thing. It gets my thumbs up!

I should remember not to ask for it by the share code when I go out as it confuses the bar staff.

[Bobby_Fischer]

Bit of support from the funds management arena: http://www.sharechat.co.nz/news/scnews/article.php/c7a3c31d

[rmbbrave]

Jenny Ruth: The uplifting history of 42 Below


11.03.05


I'm glad I didn't write about the 42 Below float. I hated it. The prospectus seemed full of marketing fluff and gimmicks and little substance.

And the vodka and gin company was so young it had hardly any track record.

It didn't help that founder and managing director Geoff Ross liked to refer to himself as "chief vodka bloke".

Or that the company had fashion designer Karen Walker and Grant Dalton of Team New Zealand on its board. Both are successful in their fields, but were they suitable company directors? I asked myself.

And executive chairman Grant Baker had been a protege of entrepreneur Eric Watson.

The company didn't have sales people; it had "brand ambassadors".

The prospectus was a cheeky document. Its "brief history of vodka" had only two non-42 Below entries - the invention of vodka in 1500 AD and the escape of a Smirnoff family member from Russia early in the 20th century.

At the time of the float, in September 2003, I decided the company had already had more than its fair share of publicity. Much of it was negative, because I wasn't alone in taking a dim view.

Some said the New Zealand Stock Exchange shouldn't have accepted the company on to its board and that such a speculative offering would undermine the exchange's reputation.

There was much comment that the $15 million float of 25 per cent implied a valuation of $60 million, which was seen as ridiculous.

Someone suggested that anyone seriously considering buying the shares had consumed too much of 42 Below's products.

It looks as if we were all wrong. The company has been answering its critics in the best possible way, consistently exceeding its own forecasts and steadily building sales momentum, turning all that marketing fluff into perfectly respectable cash.

Sales in the December quarter were $4.08 million compared with the $3.3 million forecast. It also compared with quarterly sales of just $614,650 when the company listed.

The number of case sales has grown each quarter from 7328 in the December quarter 2003 to 23,229 in the last December quarter.

It has also picked up some non-monetary kudos, winning a gold medal for its Manuka Honey Vodka at the SIAL international grocery exhibition in Paris, and other international awards. And it has struck distribution agreements with Fosters in New Zealand and Australia.

The company hasn't lost any of its cheekiness. "The water is clear and sweet, the air holds a standard for purity and hardly anyone is French," says one of its ads about its home country.

And it has garnered impressive publicity through public relations stunts way beyond anything the company could afford if it had to pay for such exposure.

Like the Cocktail World Cup it hosted on Coronet Peak. Ross says that was "a cross between a sales incentive programme and a media stunt".

The company flew bar managers who were supporting its brand and including its drinks on their cocktail menus to New Zealand to take part and had them making cocktails while jet boating and bungy-jumping. Needless to say, the media loved it.

And the company scored a half-hour interview on BBC radio while it was running its "vodka university", a three-hour course for barmen in London.

Ross says the interview was meant to be only 15 minutes, but the interviewer took a shine to the company's "vodka professor", former Wellington lawyer Jacob Briars - his field of expertise is known as "mixology", Ross explains.

As for Walker and Dalton's presence on the board, just their being there is a public relations weapon, he says.

He points out that Dalton is a qualified accountant and that he has demonstrated a phenomenal ability to generate sponsorship globally.

And Walker has already succeeded in building a global brand, as 42 Below is trying to do.

The company hasn't quite reached the point of profitability yet, although it started breaking even in October, several months ahead of schedule.

In fact, it now looks as th

[Placebo]

rmbb can you please post where and when that was published?

tia!

:D

[rmbbrave]

Herald today.

It seems to have sent the price up 4 cents too.

[johna]

NZ herald today

http://www.nzherald.co.nz/index.cfm?c_id=3&ObjectID=10114678

[leanmeanfightingmachine]

Still...not to much revenue. Stuff all really. Can someone tell me how long is it to they start paying a divi. Or will they at all.










quote:Originally posted by johna

NZ herald today

http://www.nzherald.co.nz/index.cfm?c_id=3&ObjectID=10114678

[Placebo]

LMFM: I'd suggest there is more to life than dividends. This company may not pay a divvy for many years to come. If they are wise, they will continue to plough their profits into market expansion and product development. As they do so, watch their value rise. As a holder, I will have absolutely no problem with that. The company is very much still in growth (hell, some would say start-up) mode.

If you want a yield stock, you're probably better off with TEL or NZR. Sounds like this isn't your kinda stock.

[blackcap]

quote:Originally posted by leanmeanfightingmachine

Still...not to much revenue. Stuff all really. Can someone tell me how long is it to they start paying a divi. Or will they at all.

http://www.nzherald.co.nz/index.cfm?c_id=3&ObjectID=10114678

[/quote]

SKY didnt pay a dividend for how many years? Need i say more?

[elfer]

I read the Jenny Ruth article and wondered why she didn't raise the cashflow. Still not that flash - if they're raising money already they can't be far off $1 IPO capital spent to get a $1 increase in sales...

[The Doctor]

don't 'shatter the illusion' ELFER 'logic...one day,some day!

[spector]

Jimminy! the old share price has taken a bit of a whack the last few days... I went to the 42 website to see if they have any info... and I found a brand new website... looks excellent and way more helpful than their last one.. no new news to speak of regarding the shares but the site was pretty impressive all the same.

[nottiger]

quote:Originally posted by spector

Jimminy! the old share price has taken a bit of a whack the last few days...

Markets go up for no reason ...Markets go down for no reason ... Markets go up for no reason ...Markets go down for no reason ... Markets go up for no reason ...Markets go down for no reason ... Markets go up for no reason ...Markets go down for no reason ... Markets go up for no reason ...Markets go down for no reason ... Markets go up for no reason ...Markets go down for no reason ...

In the key question should be " Is this company likely to deliver before the IPO funding/warrants run out ? _ I have no idea but they look like they might?

[whatsup]

05 & 06 warrants drifting, IMHO they are now out of balance with the heads considering this present market ,see NOG/ NOGOC'S

[Footsie]

kicking myself for not buying some at 60 odd yesterday

[Shamrock]

The question is FTSE, will they bounce straight back up to around 85 again? I don't think that will happen for a couple of reasons. One, there is no news in the offing to positively impact on the share price for at least the next three weeks; and, second, the overall sentiment of the market is such that speculative stocks such as this may well be out of favour for awhile.

That said, 60c may well look cheap in a month or two after the FY report.

[marinesalvor]

can expect full year figures in mid May would expect a good increase in case sales, and sizeable $ sales % increase - plus perhaps a guide on how long to breakeven

[cozmo]

This will help... James Dale! what a JACKASS.

http://www.nypost.com/gossip/43254.htm

http://socialitelife.com/mt/archives/brite_bar_vs_42below_vodka.php

[spector]

quote:Originally posted by cozmo

This will help... James Dale! what a JACKASS.

http://www.nypost.com/gossip/43254.htm

http://socialitelife.com/mt/archives/brite_bar_vs_42below_vodka.php


Is there nothing 42 won't do for a bit of free press! Seriously though I trawled through the internet to see how this press article would blow up and found some lively debates going on amongst the gay community about 42 Below.... here's an except from the online chatroom of a gay site in America called TOWELROAD.COM... about half is negative and half is positive...

04/01/2005
The Vodka Wars

42below

Miu over at A Socialite's Life has been following a bitter battle between the owners of 42 Below vodka, a New Zealand brand, and Brite Bar in Chelsea. Getting ugly press are a number of emails back and forth between the vodka company's president James Dale (no relation to the Boy Scout) and Brite Bar owner John Libonati. Miu got ahold of a few of the emails to Libonati which don't paint a very pretty picture of 42 Below's president:

Hello ****face,

if you are suggesting that we are anti gay then speak to my ****in hand you fool. At least of four of the people on our team are gay and one of our best accounts in NYC in Lucky Chengs. PERHAPS YOU AER A REDNECK HOMOPHOBE WHO WANTS TO FEEL IMPORANT. WE WOULD NEVER LET YOUR SORRY **** HIPPE **** FCUK BAR CARRY 42 BELOW ANYWAY. So there ********.

No regards
USA Company President doing very well thanks
James D

At issue is this video, which Libonati says panders to the gay community with offensive stereotypes. For that reason he is refusing to stock 42 Below's vodka. Towleroad sees it doing about the same level of pandering and stereotyping that Queer Eye does, like a Jib-Jab video aimed at gays. While the script, read on its own, might be considered offensive, the images tell a more tongue-in-cheek story. I do agree with Miu, however that we should never be at war over vodka. Imho, both these guys should probably sit down and have a drink.

April 1, 2005 in Food & Drink, New York | Permalink
Comments

I'm sorry but that video was hysterical.
Someone's had their sense of humor removed.

Posted by: Jcloud at April 1, 2005 12:03 PM

I agree. Pretty F#$%ing funny.

Posted by: Digger at April 1, 2005 12:37 PM

What a silly little fight over a non-offensive, though not particularly funny, video advert.

Posted by: cafegogo at April 1, 2005 01:02 PM

I agree with the bar owner - don't stock it. Does the world at large get to return to using blatant slurs like 'fag' and 'queer', to our faces no less, just because it's supposed to be funny? If the company produced Malt Liquor, would it solicit the African American dollar with the same tactic? I really don't think so. It's one thing if Queen Latifah makes "Beauty Shop'and Ice Cube makes "Next Friday", it's another when some white, straight New Zealand dude does it.

Posted by: Ken at April 1, 2005 01:27 PM

Oh, I don't know, Ken - I think you're being a bit touchy-feely politically-correct.

"Queer," et al in the right context is not offensive (to me), just as "Nigger" isn't necessarily offensive when used as slang between two black people.

By your reasoning, I can no longer greet a gay friend by crying out across 6th avenue, "Hey, *****! You're hair's on fire!" because it might offend someone's delicate sensibilities. Lighten up.

This is not to say that I found the video all that great. Mediocre, at best, but I wasn't offended.

Posted by: cafegogo at April 1, 2005 06:16 PM

Cafegogo, I don't think that's what Ken is saying. What you shout out to a friend is not the same as corporate advertising.
Are you suggesting that they are using the word "fag" affectionately? Because it's what we fags call each other?
I'm not so sure. What have they done to be our friend, that they can call us that?

[spector]

In other news...
C'mon little FTB stock! Get back up to the price you were a couple of weeks ago! Otherwise I might have to admit to everybody on sharetrader that I was wrong... heaven forbid! Actually, I'd probably just do what everyone else does and just 'dissapear' off the forum and come back under a new name In which case I'd need a snappy new handle... feel free to post suggestions!
:)

[TerryA]

Specter ?

[Footsie]

I just used 42 below mini's as the favour's at my wedding.
Went down very well.
Helped calm the nerves before my speech
!!!!

.....

[spector]

quote:Originally posted by TerryA

Specter ?



nice try... but it would have to be something that is the complete opposite of me... to ensure anonimity... I wonder if HelenClark is already taken?

[spector]

quote:Originally posted by Footsie

I just used 42 below mini's as the favour's at my wedding.
Went down very well.
Helped calm the nerves before my speech
!!!!

.....


Hey! Congratulations bro!

[TerryA]

Spector

>>the complete opposite of me... to ensure anonimity... I wonder if HelenClark is already taken?<<

Helen Clark is definitely taken, but not far enough.

If you wish to hide behind a politician have you thought of Georgina ? You could then have the best (?) of both worlds and change you mind as often as you like.

[cozmo]

Hello ****face!?! Is that the way you want your president addressing anyones concern? Nice tact..

[DJ Monaco]

Interesting to see that FTB at .68c is now the same price as Postie Plus. They both listed at the same time, PPG at $1 and FTB at .50c with some free warrants - now worth an additional 9.5c on top of each FTB share. Total 77.5c per share. PPG was hailed by the media and others on this forum as a fantastic deal and it appreciated 20% a few days after listing. The opposite happened to FTB being bagged by the media and many on this forum. Amazing how time sorts the wheat from the chaff!!!Plus the knockers have slunk back into their holes with the exception "the doctor" who at least has the courage of his convictions.

[StainlessSteelRat]

quote:Originally posted by DJ Monaco

The opposite happened to FTB being bagged by the media and many on this forum. Amazing how time sorts the wheat from the chaff!!!Plus the knockers have slunk back into their holes with the exception "the doctor" who at least has the courage of his convictions.


Slunk into our holes, you reckon? Na, i was too busy making money to be bothered preaching to those who won't listen :D

I noticed that no-one's really made any noise about the imminent listing of Bialystok http://www.nzherald.co.nz/index.cfm?c_id=2&ObjectID=10117671 a vodka company of real substance and sales of more than US$400m a year. I imagine that holders of FTB will be hoping they don't set their sights on the US market.

I presume this headline was the reason for the dip in FTB over the last couple of weeks?

[craic]

Just sold my mains along with several others and bought into AIA.

[DJ Monaco]

Good to see you making a comeback. If you'd been focussing on FTB you'd have made some money there too, just like the people who wouldn't listen to you. The idea that the share price is reacting negatively to the launch of that Polish vodka is a bit fanciful, there are already 200+ vodkas on sale in the US. Also, the Polish vodka sells for $6 a bottle, so it probably has more in common with petrol than premium vodka.
quote:Originally posted by StainlessSteelRat


quote:Originally posted by DJ Monaco

The opposite happened to FTB being bagged by the media and many on this forum. Amazing how time sorts the wheat from the chaff!!!Plus the knockers have slunk back into their holes with the exception "the doctor" who at least has the courage of his convictions.


Slunk into our holes, you reckon? Na, i was too busy making money to be bothered preaching to those who won't listen :D

I noticed that no-one's really made any noise about the imminent listing of Bialystok http://www.nzherald.co.nz/index.cfm?c_id=2&ObjectID=10117671 a vodka company of real substance and sales of more than US$400m a year. I imagine that holders of FTB will be hoping they don't set their sights on the US market.

I presume this headline was the reason for the dip in FTB over the last couple of weeks?

[StainlessSteelRat]

quote:Originally posted by DJ Monaco

Good to see you making a comeback. If you'd been focussing on FTB you'd have made some money there too, just like the people who wouldn't listen to you.

So you've sold out then, or held on grimly while the SP has dropped 30%?

[DJ Monaco]

I'm hanging on happily in there watching it going up 5% today.
quote:Originally posted by StainlessSteelRat


quote:Originally posted by DJ Monaco

Good to see you making a comeback. If you'd been focussing on FTB you'd have made some money there too, just like the people who wouldn't listen to you.

So you've sold out then, or held on grimly while the SP has dropped 30%?

[StainlessSteelRat]

quote:Originally posted by DJ Monaco

I'm hanging on happily in there watching it going up 5% today

Yup, 5 trades 12k volume, they're luring the big fish, that's for sure. :D

They must be due to report soon, then we can all have a laugh.

[Placebo]

The question is SSR, who will laugh the most? The naysayers, or the holders? :D:D

[craic]

Sold the heads and retained the options earlier this week. More to be made from the AIA split.

[StainlessSteelRat]

quote:Originally posted by craic

Sold the heads and retained the options earlier this week. More to be made from the AIA split.


Surely it would have been better to sell the options and hold the heads? On the rates being offered (for the options), the heads are free. ;)

[Bobby_Fischer]

First posted this data back in January (page 23), so time for an update.

This is an attempt to guage FTB brand positioning, relative to competitors, using internet page count as the metric. Every page found by Google that has been modified within the last 12 months containing the brand name and the words "price" and "vodka" counts as 1.

The table immediately below (and the original table) were restricted to domains ending in .com (attempting to guage US market ranking). The second table is restricted to domains ending .co.uk, attempting to guage UK market ranking. NB I only have data gathered this month for the UK. The brand names used are only a sample - the idea is to show performance relative to the market leaders. One also needs to be aware that not all brands target the same market niche and this may affect the figures.

Looks like FTB is doing quite well in the UK? I am certainly no vodka connoisseur, so would be interested in others' interpretations. I only have a very small holding, bought for "fun", but it may soon be time to take a more serious look.

Table 1 (.com only - US)

<pre id="code">
Rank Prev. Rank Change Brand Pages Prev. Pages
---------------------------------------------------------------
1 1 Absolut 29400 31300
2 2 Smirnoff 14200 17700
3 7 +4 Vampire 14000 4850
4 6 +2 Skyy 7990 6680
5 3 -2 Grey Goose 7510 11000
6 8 +2 Ketel One 6600 4220
7 4 -3 Stolichnaya 4340 7980
8 5 -3 Belvedere 3710 6940
9 11 +2 Black Death 1070 1780
10 13 +3 Three Olives 1040 1490
11 14 +3 Cristall 851 1260
12 10 -2 Boru 813 1960
13 9 -4 Finlandia 780 4090
14 12 -2 Red Army 710 1570
15 16 +1 42 Below 642 891
16 18 +2 Redd 517 442
17 15 -2 Blavod 500 899
18 17 -1 Turi 496 662
19 19 Jewel of Russia 183 324
20 21 +1 Tovtry 16 23
21 20 -1 Van Ho 6 25

Table 2 (.co.uk only - UK)

Rank Prev. Rank Change Brand Pages Prev. Pages
---------------------------------------------------------------
1 1 Smirnoff 6700 6700
2 2 Grey Goose 6400 6400
3 3 Absolut 4530 4530
4 4 Cristall 1220 1220
5 5 Stolichnaya 587 587
6 6 Vampire 471 471
7 7 Skyy 460 460
8 8 42 Below 436 436
9 9 Belvedere 376 376
10 10 Finlandia 321 321
11 11 Boru 283 283
12 12 Blavod 274 274
13 13 Ketel One 195 195
14 14 Red Army 162 162
15 15 Black Death 119 119
16 16 Turi 17 17
17 17 Redd 17 17
18 18 Three Olives 14 14
19 19 Jewel of Russia 5 5
20 20 Van Ho 1 1
21 21 Tovtry

[Gryffyn]

Was at pub quiz the other night and I noticed that they were showing some sort of anything goes boxing/wrestling thing on the big screen - overhead view of canvas shows 42 Below ad.

[DJ Monaco]

Don't worry, we'll be laughing with you, not at you.
quote:Originally posted by StainlessSteelRat


quote:Originally posted by DJ Monaco

I'm hanging on happily in there watching it going up 5% today

Yup, 5 trades 12k volume, they're luring the big fish, that's for sure. :D

They must be due to report soon, then we can all have a laugh.

[DJ Monaco]

Good to see some comment based on fact. To get so much notice in big overseas markets is a great achievement for a Kiwi company.[quote]quote:Originally posted by Bobby_Fischer

First posted this data back in January (page 23), so time for an update.

This is an attempt to guage FTB brand positioning, relative to competitors, using internet page count as the metric. Every page found by Google that has been modified within the last 12 months containing the brand name and the words "price" and "vodka" counts as 1.

The table immediately below (and the original table) were restricted to domains ending in .com (attempting to guage US market ranking). The second table is restricted to domains ending .co.uk, attempting to guage UK market ranking. NB I only have data gathered this month for the UK. The brand names used are only a sample - the idea is to show performance relative to the market leaders. One also needs to be aware that not all brands target the same market niche and this may affect the figures.

Looks like FTB is doing quite well in the UK? I am certainly no vodka connoisseur, so would be interested in others' interpretations. I only have a very small holding, bought for "fun", but it may soon be time to take a more serious look.

Table 1 (.com only - US)

<pre id="code">
Rank Prev. Rank Change Brand Pages Prev. Pages
---------------------------------------------------------------
1 1 Absolut 29400 31300
2 2 Smirnoff 14200 17700
3 7 +4 Vampire 14000 4850
4 6 +2 Skyy 7990 6680
5 3 -2 Grey Goose 7510 11000
6 8 +2 Ketel One 6600 4220
7 4 -3 Stolichnaya 4340 7980
8 5 -3 Belvedere 3710 6940
9 11 +2 Black Death 1070 1780
10 13 +3 Three Olives 1040 1490
11 14 +3 Cristall 851 1260
12 10 -2 Boru 813 1960
13 9 -4 Finlandia 780 4090
14 12 -2 Red Army 710 1570
15 16 +1 42 Below 642 891
16 18 +2 Redd 517 442
17 15 -2 Blavod 500 899
18 17 -1 Turi 496 662
19 19 Jewel of Russia 183 324
20 21 +1 Tovtry 16 23
21 20 -1 Van Ho 6 25

Table 2 (.co.uk only - UK)

Rank Prev. Rank Change Brand Pages Prev. Pages
---------------------------------------------------------------
1 1 Smirnoff 6700 6700
2 2 Grey Goose 6400 6400
3 3 Absolut 4530 4530
4 4 Cristall 1220 1220
5 5 Stolichnaya 587 587
6 6 Vampire 471 471
7 7 Skyy 460 460
8 8 42 Below 436 436
9 9 Belvedere 376 376
10 10 Finlandia 321 321
11 11 Boru 283 283
12 12 Blavod 274 274
13 13 Ketel One 195 195
14 14 Red Army 162 162
15 15 Black Death 119 119
16 16 Turi 17 17

[$imon]

Having just popped back to NZ for Easter, not forgetting to stock up on a few 42Belows on the way back out of Auckland Airport. Notice the kiwifruit was only available in a piddly little bottle.

Decided not to chance Melbourne airport again, as last October there was just about every vodka in the world on display, except 42Below.

That action proved to be correct, as again 42Below was nowhere to be seen at Melbourne airport. What is going on with the distribution agreement they are meant to have signed a long time ago for Asia Pacific duty free?

If they can shift a decent load of product without being available at half the usual outlets, imagine what will happen when the distribution really gets sorted out.

Still dissapointed not to be able to pick it up at Melb, but at least I'm not going thirsty.

Cheers!
$imon

[Footsie]

I still believe once 42below reaches a decent size, one of the big liquor companies will make an offer......
Remember Frucor anyone?

Think how well 42below would do if the had the distribution of say absolut.

[spector]

quote:Originally posted by $imon

Having just popped back to NZ for Easter, not forgetting to stock up on a few 42Belows on the way back out of Auckland Airport. Notice the kiwifruit was only available in a piddly little bottle.

Decided not to chance Melbourne airport again, as last October there was just about every vodka in the world on display, except 42Below.

That action proved to be correct, as again 42Below was nowhere to be seen at Melbourne airport. What is going on with the distribution agreement they are meant to have signed a long time ago for Asia Pacific duty free?

If they can shift a decent load of product without being available at half the usual outlets, imagine what will happen when the distribution really gets sorted out.

Still dissapointed not to be able to pick it up at Melb, but at least I'm not going thirsty.

Cheers!
$imon



not sure about Melborne $imon... but I just came back from HK and as I was passing through Sydney airport 42 had a whole bar set up in duty free!... complete with bar staff! It looked like it took up half the shop and was the business! I should have taken some photos.

[wsheridan]

Nice move James [:I]

http://socialitelife.com/mt/archives/brite_bar_vs_42below_vodka.php

[spector]

nice response 42 below!

www.42below.com/jamesdale

noticed in the stinging NBR article this morning that they got flown to LA by VH1 (which is the cool new MTV over in America)to do a piece about it. VH1 is huge!.... so it seems they have made some pretty good lemonade from their original lemon... can't wait to see how it all reflects in their American sales... their six month results must be about due.

EDIT: The VH1 thing wasn't in the article.... I got sent the James Dale saga in an email yesterday from a mate at BFM... and he reakons it's VH1.. but that may not be true. Anyone know for sure? Be great if it was.

[Placebo]

An interesting campaign, it has to be said. Again, incredibly innovative marketing. Is James Dale a real person? It seems they have created a comic character with a view on everything. Sort of a John Tamihere with expletives (although having read the investigate article, JT had a few of those too).

It seems the gay stuff was the tip of the iceberg. Perhaps the message here is, "If James Dale doesn't have a view on you, you don't matter (or in his parlance: F**k you!)"

[StainlessSteelRat]

quote:Originally posted by Placebo

It seems the gay stuff was the tip of the iceberg. Perhaps the message here is, "If James Dale doesn't have a view on you, you don't matter (or in his parlance: F**k you!)"


"F**k you" has always summed this company up for me - i've always had the impression that this is just one big party for the major shareholders, and "f**k you" is what they think of everyone who bought into the float. It's the single biggest reason why i won't invest with them.

[spector]

My views a little more simplistic: What are the sales, what's the growth, are they achieving what they have said they will achieve.

I'll continue to accumulate and hold as long as the company continues to deliver on promises.

They can do whatever they like as long as it's profitable to me. Hell! I'd even vote for Labour if they could make my life better!

[StainlessSteelRat]

quote:Originally posted by spector
Hell! I'd even vote for Labour if they could make my life better!


But you know they wouldn't ;)

[spector]

don't worry SSR i'm true blue. Go the Don!

[optiontrader]

Hi, I am a new member, just thought I would say hello so you know that I am here.

[spector]

kia ora OT,
you picked a doozy of a time to join.

[spector]

this just came in on my google alerts. It's from a black music site in the states

"*In a rare public display of affection, loverbirds Beyonce and Jay-Z salsa-danced with each other into the wee hours at Miami nightclub Mansion. Both hung in the VIP section with Beyonce’s Destiny’s Child bandmate Kelly Rowland and tennis champ Serena Williams. The group shared a bottle of Dom Perignon and 42 Below vodka before leaving at around 3 a.m."

Now, this is just a paragraph from a black gossip column... no big deal..but there's a couple of interesting things going on here which us shareholders should note. 1. These celebs choose to drink Dom Perignon AND 42 Below. So not only do they know what 42 Below is... they put it in the same 'badge' category as Dom. 2. The gossip columist also seems to be putting the same status on both Dom and 42. Pretty interesting.

[The Doctor]

what fantastic news!...spector...and of course Mike Tyson drinks it......from the bottle! ;)

[Cooper]

Might be a bit of a stretch to say that they equate 42 below to a bottle of Dom Perignon... but if Jay Z can drop the brand into a rhyme (42 below ends with an O! Think of the permutations!) then the brand might get some very good exposure... rappers/R&B artists are brand savvy and very vocal about it. Might be an advertising op for the company.

None held. But I'm betting there will be a few of you listening a little harder to your kid's music.... "Hey, why don't you go out and get that Jay Z cd"...(hint... he's changed his name...)

[spector]

quote:Originally posted by Cooper

Might be a bit of a stretch to say that they equate 42 below to a bottle of Dom Perignon... but if Jay Z can drop the brand into a rhyme (42 below ends with an O! Think of the permutations!) then the brand might get some very good exposure... rappers/R&B artists are brand savvy and very vocal about it. Might be an advertising op for the company.

None held. But I'm betting there will be a few of you listening a little harder to your kid's music.... "Hey, why don't you go out and get that Jay Z cd"...(hint... he's changed his name...)


I agree Coop, if R@B guys started including 42 in their lyrics it could be huge.... I remember reading about the growth Tanquray gin experienced in the states in the 90's just from being featured in Snoop Doggs "Gin and Juice"

[Bling_Bling]

Pimp my Vodka?

[Cooper]

From TIME magazine's April 18 2005 issue (100 most influential people), in an article written by hip-hop mogul Russell Simmons (excerpt):

"Jay-Z no longer performs but he is still an active entrepreneur. The Roc-A-Fella label he began with Damon Dash...has spun off a major clothing line, a film company and a VODKA DISTILLER."

Jay-Z has purchased a company called Armadale vodka. But I have seen the 42 below article, so maybe Beyonce has the preference for 42 below.
Of very little consequence but I was reading the article and wanted to get to the bottom of it. I can go back to bed now.

[StainlessSteelRat]

quote:
Of very little consequence but I was reading the article and wanted to get to the bottom of it. I can go back to bed now.


I'm amazed how distracted everyone is. Surely you'd be more interested in tangibles, like why their YE results haven't been announced yet - maybe because this market isn't going to take to kindly to any adverse revenue numbers?

Good luck to all the holders.

[Snow Leopard]

SSR:
You can not expect to see the year end results only three weeks after the year end.
Last year's were five weeks after and that is quick compared to most companies!

[Placebo]

SSR they are due in May. Once they are out I fully expect you to comment on them breaking into US big time and returning a profit for the first time?[:o)]

[Cooper]

quote:Originally posted by StainlessSteelRat


quote:
Of very little consequence but I was reading the article and wanted to get to the bottom of it. I can go back to bed now.


I'm amazed how distracted everyone is. Surely you'd be more interested in tangibles, like why their YE results haven't been announced yet - maybe because this market isn't going to take to kindly to any adverse revenue numbers?

Good luck to all the holders.



Not a holder, SSR, and won't be because they aren't really my kind of thing, but as the company is heavily reliant on niche marketing I was of the opinion that the news (over the other page) might be a very positive sign... which caught my imagination. Apart from that don't expect any serious analysis from me on this company... but good luck to holders... 42 below, if the brand is established, could do very well.

[GBPNZDBASISTRADER]

Can anyone give a sound logical reason why this stock took off and traded up from around 60c in early jan 05 to 85c late feb ??? Was there news out that justified it, or was it just driven largely by the small investor buying his 2000 shares worth and other small investors following suit (and i guess whilst the directors were on the other side getting lifted out of some of their holdings (hoping volumes were larger)). I am not knocking the stock, but just seems like a pretty big move and nothing that i can find seems to justify all the price action in it other than investors chasing the offer on the way up and trying to hit the bid- not matter where it is - as it has come off...

[The Doctor]

this stock was founded on hype,floated on hype,ramped on hype ,has 'hyper thetical' goodwill of $35mil,....hope this ...'hypes'!

[spector]

quote:Originally posted by GBPNZDBASISTRADER

Can anyone give a sound logical reason why this stock took off and traded up from around 60c in early jan 05 to 85c late feb ??? Was there news out that justified it, or was it just driven largely by the small investor buying his 2000 shares worth and other small investors following suit (and i guess whilst the directors were on the other side getting lifted out of some of their holdings (hoping volumes were larger)). I am not knocking the stock, but just seems like a pretty big move and nothing that i can find seems to justify all the price action in it other than investors chasing the offer on the way up and trying to hit the bid- not matter where it is - as it has come off...


my understanding was their were some 'fund managers' buying into the stock to get a holding. I'm not a sharebroker so hopefully there is one on the forum that knows that for sure.

[Bubble Boy]

quote:Originally posted by Placebo

SSR they are due in May. Once they are out I fully expect you to comment on them breaking into US big time and returning a profit for the first time?[:o)]


The insiders are jumping ship. Results due out soon.....

[DJ Monaco]

Could you name the insiders?
quote:Originally posted by Bubble Boy


quote:Originally posted by Placebo

SSR they are due in May. Once they are out I fully expect you to comment on them breaking into US big time and returning a profit for the first time?[:o)]


The insiders are jumping ship. Results due out soon.....

[DJ Monaco]

Your optimism is to be commended. However the last announcement from FTB said something like "sales will be higher and the loss will be smaller" than the last reporting period. As far as I'm aware there has been no subsequent announcement, and if anything had changed the company would have been forced to say under continuous disclosure rules.
quote:Originally posted by Placebo

SSR they are due in May. Once they are out I fully expect you to comment on them breaking into US big time and returning a profit for the first time?[:o)]

[rmbbrave]

quote:Originally posted by The Doctor

this stock was founded on hype,floated on hype,ramped on hype ,has 'hyper thetical' goodwill of $35mil,....hope this ...'hypes'!


Your prognosis is correct, Doctor.

Nothing but hype!

The hype may or may not be justfied. No one knows!

However, in the current market you need more then hype to drive the SP up. NOG is another share with a large hype component.

When hype is again back in vogue, FTB is worth a punt. Until then stick to low alchohol drinks.

I bought at 58 59 and 82 and sold at 79.

I prefer beer (asahi or kirin to be exact) but every now and then I get carried away and hit the hard stuff.

[rmbbrave]

quote:Originally posted by Bubble Boy


quote:Originally posted by Placebo

SSR they are due in May. Once they are out I fully expect you to comment on them breaking into US big time and returning a profit for the first time?[:o)]


The insiders are jumping ship. Results due out soon.....


Results are meaningless for this share.

I remember reading somewhere that the CEO said we could make a profit anytime but we chose to re-invest all potential profits in building the brands image.

Whether this strategy will pay off or not is anyones guess. Until you know for sure FTB remains a high risk share.

[StainlessSteelRat]

quote:Originally posted by Placebo

SSR they are due in May. Once they are out I fully expect you to comment on them breaking into US big time and returning a profit for the first time?[:o)]


SP down another 10% yesterday, yet there hasn't been any announcements since mid March. Someone appears to know something, but they're certainly not telling. [B)]

[danchop]

have people drunk too much vodka that are willing to pay 16cents for an option they will have to fork out another 50cents for in 6 months time

[Snow Leopard]

quote:Originally posted by StainlessSteelRat

SP down another 10% yesterday, yet there hasn't been any announcements since mid March. Someone appears to know something, but they're certainly not telling. [B)]


Look out of the window. The NZ share market has been going downhill for over a month and a half. At this moment people are bailing out of small caps into the big 'safe' stuff. It's nothing personal [:0]

[StainlessSteelRat]

quote:
Look out of the window. The NZ share market has been going downhill for over a month and a half. At this moment people are bailing out of small caps into the big 'safe' stuff. It's nothing personal [:0]


From a high of .83 to .52 today, with a 10% drop yesterday - all in the space of two months. The only other company i can think of that's plumetted like that is FTX, who at least had the decency to let their shareholders know (albeit a bit late).

[spector]

quote:Originally posted by StainlessSteelRat

From a high of .83 to .52 today, with a 10% drop yesterday - all in the space of two months. The only other company i can think of that's plumetted like that is FTX, who at least had the decency to let their shareholders know (albeit a bit late).


The difference between FTX and FTB is that FTX were obviously going to come up short of their projections... as far as we know FTB is still tracking to theres. Yesterdays drop was from 18 seperate sells of about $2500 each... small holders in a nervous market taking money out of speculative stocks. So far no big blocks of shares have come on the market so I doubt that the current share price reflects some 'bad news' that only a few people know about.

That said, there has been no significant buyers of shares.. so no one is smelling a bargain with FTB either.

[Winnie Burgers]

Brought 8000 shares 1st March for 80 cents ...
Brought an additional 2000 shares 27th April for 55 cents ...

As of yesterday, my portfolio is -27%.

Anyone want financial advice from me??

[Placebo]

Nice intro, Winnie. Well done.

We will rejoice with you in your success stories. Honest!:D

[marinesalvor]

buy a few more Winnie - I bought at 38c when everyone was bagging FTB

only a couple of days now till an announcement

[leanmeanfightingmachine]

You were smart to buy at 55c it shows you believe in the stock. I did this with PVO from 23c to 90c and now sits at 80c.as it went up and down. If you got a long term view on the share you will be fine. To many bail out and don't wait out the little ruff patches. it will be back to 68-70c soon.

LMFM

Don't own FTB.




quote:Originally posted by Winnie Burgers

Brought 8000 shares 1st March for 80 cents ...
Brought an additional 2000 shares 27th April for 55 cents ...

As of yesterday, my portfolio is -27%.

Anyone want financial advice from me??

[Winnie Burgers]

If someone were to buy 50,000 FTB shares in one go, would people think there must be good news on the way & therefore the share price would go up??

Or would people think - What an idiot!! :o)

[lucky]

David McEwen gave 42 the thumbs -up on tele this-morning, he was quite bullsh on it.

[spector]

quote:Originally posted by Winnie Burgers

If someone were to buy 50,000 FTB shares in one go, would people think there must be good news on the way & therefore the share price would go up??

Or would people think - What an idiot!! :o)


So far the company has exceeded it's targets and not released any profit forecast 'revisions'. In a marketplace where alot of campanies are making excuses for poor performance FTB continues to grow. If the news from their end of year report (due any day i think) is good then a block of shares bought at 55 will be pretty good buying. I bought a packet for 56 last week.

[Placebo]

Who is David McEwen?

[Gryffyn]

Must admit I was thinking of topping up at these prices too. Warrants vs head shares anyone?

[Snow Leopard]

quote:Originally posted by Winnie Burgers

Why do people waste their time with NOG when FTB's the only way to go [?] [:o)]

Because the speculators forcing the price up now will dump it when the result is out, good or bad.

[Winnie Burgers]

Why?

[Winnie Burgers]

Why would they wait for the result to dump??

[Snow Leopard]

Because it is intended as a short term trade from the start. Poor result dump immediately taking any profit. Good result then the SP may rise more on the news but you still dump.

[Snow Leopard]

Well the result is out. Only a $5m2 loss.

[spector]

Sales up 176%. And the company that the pessimists continue to bag as "doomed to fail" just sold it's millionth bottle of vodka.

[rmbbrave]

42 BELOW (FTB) announces Year End result, new products and the sale of a million bottles.

Vodka and Gin maker 42 BELOW Ltd today released their audited full year result for the year ended 31 March 2005. Sales for the year were $12.18m, an increase of 176% over the previous 12 month period of $4.4m. EBITDA was negative $5.104m and NPAT was negative $5.218m. Gross margin on sales grew by 186% in the year while expenditure required to achieve $1 of gross margin fell from $2.13 in the 2004 year to $1.80 for the 2005 year.

Chairman of 42 BELOW, Grant Baker, states "this result is in line with directors' expectations and consistent with previous announcements with revenue in the second six months of the March 2005 year higher than in the first and that EBITDA losses in the second six months lower than they were in the first. To achieve $12.18m revenue in the first full year since listing is very gratifying. The company has total current assets of $13.8m including at balance date $7.0m of cash. There are no borrowings".

Case sales for the March 2005 year were 68,586 cases, an increase of 200% from 22,821 cases in the March 2004 year.

Revenue per case has dropped slightly, as the company is now selling directly to bond in Australia, therefore Australian sales revenue does not include an excise tax component as it did previously. Gross margin dollars per case however remain unchanged

New Zealand has been in profit for the full year, the UK is now consistently in profit, and Australia is close to break-even, prior to the allocation of Head Office overhead. The USA remains the company's single largest opportunity and its biggest overhead. The company will continue to invest in order to build market share there. This was confirmed in a December announcement, which stated there had been a placement with two local fund managers to raise $3.12m for creating further growth off shore. The company will continue to maximise growth opportunities with its 42 BELOW Vodka and SOUTH Gin brands in all markets across the coming year.

Chief Vodka Bloke, Geoff Ross also said that "42 BELOW are planning to make an announcement on the launch of new products within the next two weeks. The company now has strong customer and distributor relationships. We expect to leverage this 'route to market' already created, to generate more revenue".

The Directors are confident growth will continue within existing brands, 42 BELOW Vodka being the lead brand, whilst the new brands create incremental business and 'clout' with distributor networks.

Case sales continue to be strong in the first 6 weeks of the new financial year with the company just selling its millionth bottle of vodka. To mark this milestone a special "one off" platinum bottle of 42 BELOW Pure Vodka is being presented to the Matterhorn bar in Wellington for its role as a cornerstone bar in developing 42 BELOW. 42 BELOW is now the number one Super Premium Vodka in New Zealand and Australia. Matterhorn has stocked 42 BELOW since its creation in 1999.

For further information contact:
Geoff Ross
Phone: 09 920 9430
Mobile: 021 42 42 19

[Winnie Burgers]

That's an excellent idea Paper Tiger - focus on the only negative thing in the report. [:p]

[Snow Leopard]

:) Apart from the minus sign on the front, what is negative about it? They still have plenty of money to throw at the US of A.

All those speculators I speculated about don't seem to playing the game. [B)]

[Caesius]

Share price down 1 cent at lunchtime. Is this announcement not good news?

[Winnie Burgers]

Please correct me if I'm wrong, but with a report like that, how can anyone not see the huge potential of this stock in the future??

[Snow Leopard]

The potential is indeed huge
So is the downside.

If you want to bet it on, go for it.

I will speculate on NOG because my car drinks more oil than I drink 42B*.


*On average**


**Just

[Winnie Burgers]

Simple ... I'll built a car that runs on 42B ... only problem is it'll have to do 500 odd k's per litre [V]

Stay tuned!

[Bling_Bling]

They need to raise more cash in the future?

[blackcap]

quote:Originally posted by Bling_Bling

They need to raise more cash in the future?


Exercise of warrants will provide adequate cash, Bling Bling.

[Winnie Burgers]

Whoever sold 20K @ 58 must think this stock is intended as a short term trade. They must've been on the understanding that there was a 'good result' so the SP may rise more on the news but that you still dump.

Would that be right PT ?? ;)

[Snow Leopard]

Could be, WB. Lets see how it goes.

[spector]

Probably just some poor b as tard selling up so he can afford to pay more tax to our insufferable government

[seagull]

Decided to pay down my overdraft with the 40% profit {about 13k}Ftb has been a good investment since IPO. Still feel positive re the future but it may take time to rev up.

[Winnie Burgers]

I remain quietly confident about this stock ... even if it takes me 5 years to get a return like Seaqull.
My portfolio is presently -23% so it's got a long way to go ...
Any comments on the 42B CEO's appearance on Ch1 this morning about 6:45?? For me personally I felt he came across really positive.

[StainlessSteelRat]

quote:Originally posted by Winnie Burgers

I remain quietly confident about this stock ... even if it takes me 5 years to get a return like Seaqull.
My portfolio is presently -23% so it's got a long way to go ...

Apart from the rest of the hype that surrounds this share, i'm amazed that the warrants are holding up at all. Yesterday's release shows that they are burning cash at a huge rate, so the exercising of the warrants can't come fast enough. In that regard, i can't see how they command any premium to the heads.


quote:
Any comments on the 42B CEO's appearance on Ch1 this morning about 6:45?? For me personally I felt he came across really positive.


He's from a marketing background - what would you expect? :D

[Placebo]

SSR, if you want to quote selectively from the announcement, then so can I...

quote:New Zealand has been in profit for the full year, the UK is now consistently in profit, and Australia is close to break-even, prior to the allocation of Head Office overhead. The USA remains the company's single largest opportunity and its biggest overhead

Burning cash? I think not.

Ross is not from marketing, he's from advertising. Bit of a difference.

[thereslifeafter87]

Placebo,

The bottom line is that they are burning cash. If no warrants are exercised and the status quo is maintained, FTB have enough cash for only another year and a half of operations.

The exercise of the warrants should allow them to grow for longer, but they need to stop the cash burn. This will occur when they gain scale in the US significant enough to outweigh the millions they are obviously spending on marketing at the moment to gain brand recognition and market share.

It's a speculative bet to buy this share. Especially when it is not priced at all cheaply in relation to its potential earnings. It's currently priced at around 5 x sales, which is a massive premium for potential future growth, even if they are currently growing revenues by over 100%. Remember though that those growth figures are also coming off a low base. No company can continue to grow at that speed for any extended period of time.

Whether you punt on 42 below depends on whether you believe their investment into the US will pay off. But don't fool yourself into thinking that it's not a punt. It is.

[marinesalvor]

Its easily the best time to be spending dollars on building markets in the USA- our dollar is nice and high - about 30% better to invest there right now that it was a year or so ago, so strategically I support them spending heavily there

[StainlessSteelRat]

quote:Originally posted by Placebo

SSR, if you want to quote selectively from the announcement, then so can I...

quote:New Zealand has been in profit for the full year, the UK is now consistently in profit, and Australia is close to break-even, prior to the allocation of Head Office overhead. The USA remains the company's single largest opportunity and its biggest overhead

Burning cash? I think not.


You and i obviously read that sentence differently. I see it that they would be in profit in those locations if not for the Head Office Overhead. That may well apply only to Australia, and i accept that could be the case (no pun intended).

Regardless, the salient point is that it is costing FTB $1.80 to make a $1 of gross margin. And that's GROSS. If that isn't burning cash, then someone changed the definition while i wasn't looking. :D

Cheers

[Winnie Burgers]

This question is 4 whoever wants to reply (with a serious answer)-
If you had 10K FTB that you'd brought for 75.2(ave), what would you do with them??

[spector]

quote:Originally posted by StainlessSteelRat


quote:Originally posted by Placebo

SSR, if you want to quote selectively from the announcement, then so can I...

quote:New Zealand has been in profit for the full year, the UK is now consistently in profit, and Australia is close to break-even, prior to the allocation of Head Office overhead. The USA remains the company's single largest opportunity and its biggest overhead

Burning cash? I think not.


You and i obviously read that sentence differently. I see it that they would be in profit in those locations if not for the Head Office Overhead. That may well apply only to Australia, and i accept that could be the case (no pun intended).

Regardless, the salient point is that it is costing FTB $1.80 to make a $1 of gross margin. And that's GROSS. If that isn't burning cash, then someone changed the definition while i wasn't looking. :D

Cheers


But if you look at the company statement from this time last year it was costing them $2.50 of overhead to produce $1 of margin. So as well as increased sales of 176% their cost to return ration is also significantly smaller.

And TLA87's point about the company not being able to sustain a 176% growth is purely unfoundered opinion... the company has already exceeded sales figures that everyone said they could never achieve. High growth is only hard to achieve when you already have a significant share of the marketplace.... I doubt that 42 even have 1% of the global market so there is plenty of room for exponential growth.

There has to come a time when the company can stand on it's own two feet of course.... and when that happens the more nervous punters can buy in at a share price that reflects the amount of risk they are comfortable with.

[spector]

quote:Originally posted by Winnie Burgers

This question is 4 whoever wants to reply (with a serious answer)-
If you had 10K FTB that you'd brought for 75.2(ave), what would you do with them??


I don't know what your circumstances are but I would hold. I've been buying all the way from 36 - 78 and continue to accumulate when I can.
There are plenty of FTB-knockers on this forum who may tell you otherwise... but if you go back and look at all their predictions of what they thought would happen to FTB you'll notice that none of them actually came true.

[limegreen]

quote:Originally posted by Winnie Burgers

This question is 4 whoever wants to reply (with a serious answer)-
If you had 10K FTB that you'd brought for 75.2(ave), what would you do with them??


Decide that next time I bought shares, I'd plan an exit strategy at the time I bought.
And I mean that seriously. I'm not sure which side of the recent peak that you bought on, but whenever you purchase some shares, you should know at the time that you buy, how far they'd have to fall before you took the loss on your chin and acknowledge that you mis-timed your buy.

As regarding your current circumstance, the price continues to look weak, so one possibility (and this is very much a technical perspective) is to sell now, as it's very likely that you'll be able to buy back in cheaper in the coming weeks or months. At the moment, the price doesn't look to be in any hurry towards increasing (it's definitely trending down at the moment, with no regard for whatever future prospects there might be).

[Placebo]

quote:You and i obviously read that sentence differently. I see it that they would be in profit in those locations if not for the Head Office Overhead. That may well apply only to Australia, and i accept that could be the case (no pun intended).

SSR: Hmm, see what you are getting at. I read it that NZ and England are consistently in profit. Australia would be but for HO overhead. US not in profit.

Now that you've pointed it out I can see that the sentence can be interpreted 2 ways. Unfortunate in its ambiguity, ain't it!

TLA87 this is a company really still in start-up phase. Its growth continues to be phenomenal. This makes it extremely difficult to value. What is indisputable is that it made huge inroads here and in Australia, and it also has a foothold in the UK, which is no mean feat. If they can make it in the US the sky's the limit.

If...

[StainlessSteelRat]

quote:Originally posted by spector
But if you look at the company statement from this time last year it was costing them $2.50 of overhead to produce $1 of margin.

Please, let's try for a bit of accuracy here. Last year it was costing FTB $2.13 (according to their own release) to produce "a dollar of gross margin"

quote:

So as well as increased sales of 176% their cost to return ration is also significantly smaller.

They should be making a huge profit then ;)

I am struggling to figure this concept of "a dollar of gross margin". I can get it conceptually, but how it relates to revenue has me baffled. Is anyone able to elaborate, or will i have to wait until the annual report is released? :D

[spector]

quote came from KJ's post last year referring to a publication dated 18/8/04

"Note that the coy,in its publication dated 18/8/04 said that their overhead expenditure to margin ratio was $2.50 overheads to $1.00 margin at 31/3/04 -in the 4 mths trading sincs March this had fallen to $1.60 o/heads to $1.00 margin."

But whichever way you look at it the cost of making $1 is falling.


FTB is not making a profit SSR, no one's arguing with you there, but let's just imagine for a moment that 42 continues with its current exponetial growth... and in 10 years time 42 could be found in every bar/restaurant in the world and everyone drank it. Now lets also imagine that the cost of that expansion meant that the company didn't actually make any money. What do you think the share price would be worth SSR?

You could argue that the shares are worth nothing because the company doesn't actually make any money.... or you could argue that the 42 Brand has a certain amount of equity that has a value in itself.

[thereslifeafter87]

This talk of gross margin has me puzzled.

It looks basically like nothing but a marketing ploy.

Gross margin should = sales - the cost of sales

So FTB obviously do not include marketing/advertising in their "cost of sales".

Their gross margin = sales - what they pay the manufacturer for the vodka they buy to onsell.

What I don't understand is what they mean by spending $1.80 (or whatever the number they give is) for each $1 of gross margin.

Does this meant they spend $1.80 on advertising for each $1? Or are they including the cost of buying the vodka from the manufacturer in that $1.80?

Either way you look at it, they are spending close to double what they are receiving in gross margin. And remember that it is GROSS margin - thats margin before deducting the costs of advertising, and Head office spending.

As to continued growth rates of over 100% in revenue... It is folly to think that a company can grow at that rate for more than a couple of years. Its profit may grow at that rate for a few more years (provided it reaches break even) due to economies of scale being reached, but revenues simply cannot grow at that pace.

Do you have any idea how big the company would have to get if it kept growing that fast for more than a few years?

[KJ]

TLA87

GM does equal Sales - Cost of sales.This would be normal accounting practice.ie COS=opening stock + purchases - closing stock.

Marketing/Advertising costs should not be part of cost of sales.
I think that FBT is following normal practice.

$1.80 would be all costs other than purchases.

[Snow Leopard]

Bit of a sell-of this morning, down to $0.54. Which is what I expected to happen last week.
Still the day is yet young, where's the bottle gone?

[Winnie Burgers]

[:p]

[Snow Leopard]

quote:Originally posted by Winnie Burgers

[:p]
[xx(]

[Winnie Burgers]

Not yet PT. :)
Congratulations on your prediction.
May you be cursed with chronic anxiety about the stockmarket (like myself):(

[Snow Leopard]

Sorry, but no worries. :)
Tis an unsettlted place the NZX at the moment, if it causes you grief then FTB is not the stock for you.
Just remember it is only money and long term you may well have a winner. [:p]

[thereslifeafter87]

Thanks for the clarification KJ,

It's not exactly a good situation to be in... spending almost $2 to make $1...

Why do they need to go so big so fast?

I prefer more conservative management. If they are in profit in NZ, Aussie, and UK, why not expand more slowly and surely in the US, rather than taking one big punt, blowing all the IPO money within a couple of years?

Reminds me a little bit of Amazon.com. How long did it take for that company to return a profit?

Of course, if FTB has Amazons success... the sky is the limit.

[spector]

I assume they are concentrating on rapid growth to get out of the "$2 to make $1" stage. If you look at the fiqures it's the US that is the big cost. NZ is making money, Britain is making money and Aussie is almost break even. So in real terms most countries are fine but it may be costing them $6 to make $1 in America. I'm assuming their efforts this year will be to make America break even so the whole company goes into profit

[TGT05]

Is anyone else holding A's getting worried??? Get out of there or hold on?

[danchop]

quote:Originally posted by TGT05

Is anyone else holding A's getting worried??? Get out of there or hold on?
if you have the 50c per option to convert come 30/10 and if you think the heads will be 61c or greater come that time,hold,or else sell now at 11c

[Footsie]

FTBWA . you may as well hold at least until the end of september.
wait for the half yr result.

USA does appear a issue.
If they just focused on NZ/Asia and UK......
lets hope the investment in the US pays off.

B warrants are still at 25c so obviously some have faith. Or thought thats probably due to FTB's massive VOL.

[marinesalvor]

our dollar is likely to drop vs US - will bolster export returns

[danchop]

quote:Originally posted by marinesalvor

our dollar is likely to drop vs US - will bolster export returns
would also bolster costs in the us too

[marinesalvor]

yes but hopefully the total spend will decrease over time as I would expect earlier stage promotion is always more costly and intensive (thankfully done mainly with high dollar)

[spector]

I don't know about that MS... America is a huge market and not easily cracked overnight... i'd expect more money to go there rather than less.

What would be good to know is the monthly sales growth in the US.. so we can gauge how well they are performing over there.

[marinesalvor]

yes Spector- but you would have to think that other parts of the distribution chain would start contributing - not just 42B themselves

[spector]

quote:Originally posted by Footsie

FTBWA . you may as well hold at least until the end of september.
wait for the half yr result.

USA does appear a issue.
If they just focused on NZ/Asia and UK......
lets hope the investment in the US pays off.

B warrants are still at 25c so obviously some have faith. Or thought thats probably due to FTB's massive VOL.



NZ Asia and the UK are paying there way now... so they should all start going into good profit if their current sales growth continue.
This will in turn help offset the costs of going into the US.. and I imagine that if 42 gets a name for itself in the UK then the desireability of the 42 brand should trickle into the US market as well further helping the US sales growth.
Once the US breaks even then the actual profit of the company will increase expoentially... however this may still take some time.

[spector]

quote:Originally posted by marinesalvor

yes Spector- but you would have to think that other parts of the distribution chain would start contributing - not just 42B themselves


Yeah good point MS, if the distribution chains start to push 42 in a big way then that would be a huge bonus. Be interesting to know whether 42 is being looked at by the big distributors overseas.

[marinesalvor]

well the fosters deal was good - need a similar one in USA and EU

[Bobcat.]

Being buying in at 11c on FTBWA and 25c on FTBWB - thanks for the pessisim chaps!! :D

Now let's see if these babies can climb off a TA support level on the heads of 53c, and an announcement on the launch of new products later this month.

;)

[Footsie]

here here bobcat

[Gryffyn]

UK market should be taken by storm...

http://www.42below.com/flashad/britain/

[marinesalvor]

Glorious Gryf - I bought into 42b after the Hobbits ad - might go and buy thousands more

[rmbbrave]

quote:Originally posted by Gryffyn

UK market should be taken by storm...

http://www.42below.com/flashad/britain/


Assuming of course they have a sense of humour and are willing to laugh at themselves. If not, they will be offended and boycott the product.

Some might even complain to the equivalent of the broadcasting standards commission. (but that would be a good thing).

[marinesalvor]

Britain is the home of Monty Python and Blackadder - they will lap it up hopefully

[Gryffyn]

quote:Originally posted by rmbbrave


quote:Originally posted by Gryffyn

UK market should be taken by storm...

http://www.42below.com/flashad/britain/


Assuming of course they have a sense of humour and are willing to laugh at themselves. If not, they will be offended and boycott the product.

Some might even complain to the equivalent of the broadcasting standards commission. (but that would be a good thing).


MS stole my line! And let's face it - complaints generate publicity and that's good :-)

[Gryffyn]

BTW, I see ST is again quoted in a Listener article about the NY gay bar vs FTB stouch. Net result seems to be more good vibes and press for FTB.

Disc: Holder and a recent top-upper.

[Footsie]

Love the add..

I'm only a warrant holder but with the head share, back in the 50's think this is a perfect opportunity to load up.

[Gryffyn]

Better be quick as 50s disappearing fast.

[Gryffyn]

Mmmm, sorry if that sounds like ramping.

Disc: IPOd, sold at small profit (plus kept warrants) and topped back up at 50.

Think that this is a risky but fun share to have - it may all turn pear-shaped but am happy with performance to date. Less than 2% of portfolio.

[Caesius]

Up 3 cents on moderate volume today. Do you think the SP will be able to climb much higher; I mean technically they have posted a much larger loss for the year - future prospects aside I can't see what would cause a much bigger increase at the moment.

Having said that I do hold FTB shares and hope that people can look past the 'loss' see and see the future potential.

[Gryffyn]

I see money still in the bank, more money to come from warrants, distribution deals sown up with major suppliers like Fosters and yet more untapped markets. My only regert with this share so far is that I didn't pile in at 34c or whatever.

[Binklebonk]

Brilliant viral ad which should do wonders.
English friends I sent it to in the UK just loved it and are passing onto lots of other.

discl - Don't own FTB

Should not get much higher until October and warrants are converted.

[spector]

quote:Originally posted by Binklebonk

Brilliant viral ad which should do wonders.
English friends I sent it to in the UK just loved it and are passing onto lots of other.

discl - Don't own FTB



Yeah, I've been sent this a dozen times the last few days. How many of you Brits have had it sent to you?

[Footsie]

nobody has sent it to me,
but i'll make sure i fwd it round tomorrow!

[Placebo]

Bugger me sideways I cannot open that file. I have flash player installed, what the h*ll am I doing wrong?????????

Any hints? Would a double shot of vodka help?

[Long Strangle]

quote:Originally posted by Placebo

Bugger me sideways I cannot open that file. I have flash player installed, what the h*ll am I doing wrong?????????

Any hints? Would a double shot of vodka help?


Disable both your Norton Anitvirus Auto-Protect & your Norton Internet Security, then try again.

Hope this helps.
LS :).

[Winnie Burgers]

I suggest at least a whole bottle of vodka rather than just a couple shots.
NB: Import the bottle(s) from USA so it increases sales over there :D

[Snow Leopard]

Water? [:0]
If it sells, who cares?

quote:
FTB
26/05/2005
GENERAL

REL: 1711 HRS 42 Below Limited

GENERAL: FTB: 42 BELOW RELEASES SUPER PREMIUM WATER.

42 BELOW RELEASES SUPER PREMIUM WATER. CRICKET INTERNATIONAL TO LEAD.

42 BELOW announces today the imminent launch of its new 420 water. 420 is a
pure spring water from under an extinct volcanic plateau and will
appropriately be 420ml by volume. The brand is packaged in a unique hard
plastic bottle created by 42 BELOW for up market clubs and bars, where glass
is not allowed on the dance floor.

420 is aimed at the top end bar and club market where 42 BELOW have
particularly strong relationships. "42 BELOW has built a solid 'pipe' to
market in many countries with distributor and customer relationships that
allow other like products to be placed in the 'pipe'. Creating greater
efficiencies for a group of brands" says Chief Vodka Bloke Geoff Ross. He
added "it certainly is easier than the days when we were starting from
scratch to build these infrastructures. New products have the synergy
created from the excellent relationships we have already built. In our top
end club and bar outlets, a high end water is a natural progression".

Part of 42 BELOW story that customers have related to well, is the source of
the water. "We let them know that 42 BELOW comes from the 42nd Parallel,
which holds a benchmark for air purity and the water we use comes from under
an extinct volcanic zone. In off shore markets people love this story and
our New Zealand origins. In fact, we are often asked - can we taste the
water you use in your Vodka" Geoff Ross adds.

420 has been created by ex New Zealand Cricketer Dion Nash. Dion has been at
42 BELOW for the last 6 months creating the business plan, leading the
development and working with 42 BELOW's off shore ambassadors. "Dion will
bring a valuable off shore network to contribute to the arrangements already
in place" states Geoff.

Dion will also be an investor in this particular part of the business.

Dion adds "very few New Zealand brands have firmly established themselves in
the up market outlets around the world. Premium water is an obvious one. A
lot of work and research has gone into the brand development, which is
critical in water. And the New Zealand origin gives us great credentials to
start with. The bottle is totally unique and will give us and edge in the
very style conscious club and bar outlets that 42 BELOW has relationships
with".

The brand will hit New Zealand outlets in the next three months before moving
quickly to off shore markets.

Ends.

For more information contact:

Dion Nash
021 666 380

Geoff Ross
021 42 42 19
End CA:00115945 For:FTB Type:GENERAL Time:2005-05-26:17:11:47

[blackcap]

Im sure Dion will be happy that his cell is pasted for all to see.

Dosnt sound like a bad idea though. Water sells for as much as beer and in this party pill age (legal or not) water is something you need to get you through a night. Although I must confess I prefer beer, thats probably why I end up suffering for two days after. :)

[lambton]

quote:Originally posted by blackcap

Im sure Dion will be happy that his cell is pasted for all to see.

Dosnt sound like a bad idea though. Water sells for as much as beer and in this party pill age (legal or not) water is something you need to get you through a night. Although I must confess I prefer beer, thats probably why I end up suffering for two days after. :)


Good move, beats trying to sell a premium commodity, an oxymoron, if there has ever been one.
Might even buy the share if it gets cheaper enough to attract some risk capital.

[Bubble Boy]

"super premium water"?

Sounds like a lot more marketing dollars required to get this on the shelf. Hope they have done their numbers.

[marinesalvor]

a really good move by the 42B boys - will double volumes to the pubs and clubs, and probably with a similar margin

[Gryffyn]

Good move indeed. 42Below brand is gaining momentum and this is a cheap way to cash in on that without detracting from the main plot.

[rmbbrave]

In the Herald today

http://www.nzherald.co.nz/index.cfm?c_id=77&ObjectID=10127696


420 way to go when it comes to water




27.05.05


by Georgina Bond


A new tipple - pure New Zealand spring water - was added to boutique spirits company 42 Below's range yesterday.

Labelled '420', the 420ml bottle resembling a lava lamp is targeted at the dance floors of high-end, style-conscious bars and clubs.

Former New Zealand cricketer Dion Nash created the product, which is not due to be launched for another three months. Chief executive Geoff Ross expected the water's source - from beneath an extinct volcanic zone in the central North Island - would appeal to the company's overseas customers.

"In offshore markets, people love this story and our New Zealand origins.

"In fact, we are often asked, 'Can we taste the water you use in your vodka?' " he said.

Listed in 2003, 42 Below sells its vodka and South gin locally as well as in the United States, United Kingdom and Australia.

This month, it reported a $5.22 million net after-tax loss for the year to March as it continued to invest heavily in the US market.

[rmbbrave]

I just bought 20000 for 0.61 and have put them up for sale at 0.64.

If they sell today I will make $540.

What are my chances?

Anyway got to go to work 9-4 for $400.

[Gryffyn]

Planning on paying tax? ;)

Your chances might be good, but doing it every day is harder. Larger investments over longer periods can bring good average/daily returns though - trust me.

[rmbbrave]

I am a non-resident for tax purposes so can trade with impunity.

[Gryffyn]

Enjoy then.

[Winnie Burgers]

01 to go rmb!

[Placebo]

quote:Former New Zealand cricketer Dion Nash created the product

It's official! Dion Nash is God! He created water!

It always astounds me that people are prepared to pay through the nose for something that comes out of a tap for free. Still, that's the triumph of marketing over common sense and I totally support FTB's move into this market.

The other day I had lunch at a s****y Auckland restaurant, we were served a bottle of water, which had some poop on the label about coming from the world's deepest underground spring (bottled at source). Source must be an amazing place, with all those water bottling plants. Where is it? Guess that's another story.

Anyway, our 500ml bottle of water cost $11. Just goes to show, there's one born every minute

[Winnie Burgers]

How much chlorine (not to mention other impurities!!)in a bottle of water??
My guess is approx 0!

[spector]

RMBRAVE 1
Tax Dept 0

:)

[Snow Leopard]

Never thought it would get to 64 today.
Assuming rmbbrave was first in the queue at 64 then about 1/8th of his holding as gone so far.
If it gets to 65 we know he was a winner and he can shout us all a bottle of saki :)

[Gryffyn]

But then he'll be counting his paper losses as it moves back over 70... ;) Only kidding - not a short-termer myself (unless its sports betting) but fun to watch others. Good on him for the public call.

[Bubble Boy]

quote:Originally posted by Winnie Burgers

How much chlorine (not to mention other impurities!!)in a bottle of water??
My guess is approx 0!


Thats not actually the case. THere have been several studies done that show that bottled water and tap water are very similar, with tap water often coming out better than the majority of bottled waters. In many cases, tap water does have slightly higher chlorine and floride, but many bottled waters have a higher overall disolved solids (sodium, etc.).

There is also a higher risk that with bottled water being stored for some time prior to use, that micro organisms can contaminate it.

[spector]

Tap water contains 0% marketing. That's the real difference.

[Gryffyn]

Perfect solution is to save money and always drink tap water while investing in companies that make money out of the people who seem to like paying for free stuff.

[Gryffyn]

What I want to know is when are FTB going to start marketing their own brand of air. Huge market of consumers out there ;)

[marinesalvor]

I dont drink tap water in US or UK

[Winnie Burgers]

Where's Saint Croix?
The location of the 'studies'??

[marinesalvor]

only St Croix I know is in the US Virgin Islands

[spector]

St Croix is a street in Penrose. Next to the FTB factory.

[marinesalvor]

far less appealing than the Virgin islands Spec

[Gryffyn]

MS - I got used to the water in UK but mainly drank it in tea, beer, wine...

[rmbbrave]

I'm on my lunch break here in Japan.

One class down, 2 to go.

7227 out of 20000 sold. Profit about $200

Dion Nash all is forgiven!

When I was a nipper I once played against Dion. He smashed my best deliveries for four and bowled me neck and crop for a duck.

[Placebo]

Gryff you are quite right re the marketing.

Winnie you need to read the label next time you pick up a bottle of "pure" water. They contain a lot of things. Friend of mine in England used to drink a lot of Evian (another water bottled at that Source place). Evian contains high concentrations of calcium, being derived from chalky soils. He blamed this for his kidney stones.

The reason it's called "mineral" water is because it contains minerals. If you live in NZ and believe you get a better product by spending $5 on a bottle of water than you do from turning on a tap, mate, you're a mug.

[Year of the Tiger]

quote:Originally posted by Bubble Boy

[quote]

There is also a higher risk that with bottled water being stored for some time prior to use, that micro organisms can contaminate it.



Grrrr, there goes my theory on storing a few bottles of "Pump" or similar in case of flood, tornado, tsunami etc etc [V]
Oh well, just have to go back to the water in the toilet cistern. I still need a lot of convincing that it's the better alternaitve though....gulp....[xx(][xx(][xx(]

[Winnie Burgers]

Placebo, mate, I never said it didn't contain minerals, mate?? There's nothing wrong with minerals, mate. Your friend in England, mate, could have quite easily prevented his kidney stones (or at least dissolved them), mate, by having a 42B binge in the weekends, mate.

I spend $3 on Pump (very rarely) when I forget to fill my bottle with filtered tap water from home.

Bubble Boy: You've obviously annoyed the gods in the past as it appears they've cursed you with chronic anxiaty about micro organisms~ :)

[StainlessSteelRat]

quote:Originally posted by Gryffyn

What I want to know is when are FTB going to start marketing their own brand of air.

They already are. It's just that because it's hot they can't make a profit out of it. :D

[Gryffyn]

Au contraire - hot air is exactly what is helping with sales ;) This share is a marketing exercise. Style over substance in a world gone mad and long may it continue.

[Placebo]

Winnie, mate, with respect to the bottled vs tapped, you might enjoy this story ex-UK last year...

Coca-Cola's special water source is a tap in Sidcup
By Neil Tweedie
(Filed: 02/03/2004)

The ingredients of Coca-Cola are, as every schoolchild knows, one of the world's best-kept secrets. Even subcontractors who bottle the stuff are kept in the dark, in order to preserve the mystique of The Real Thing.

The same cannot be said, however, about Dasani, the Coca-Cola Company's latest foray into the British bottled water market.

It comes from the tap. In Sidcup, to be precise.

Yesterday, the world's biggest soft drinks manufacturer defended the concept of charging a recommended 53p per 500ml for what can normally be obtained by a slight movement of the wrist.

Dasani, said a spokesman, was designed to meet the "aspirational" needs of customers.

But Sidcup, in south east London, isn't exactly the French Alps, is it?

"The point is quality rather than provenance," she explained.

To be fair, Coca-Cola do quite a lot to the water, which is piped directly into a very expensive plant recently completed.

The raw product is first passed through three filters intended to extract particles, organic debris and chlorine before a final stage known as reverse osmosis.

The technique, perfected by Nasa to purify fluids on spacecraft, involves forcing the water under pressure through a fine membrane, removing any remaining "bacteria, viruses, salts, minerals, sugars, proteins and toxin particles".

The result: almost totally pure H2O.

The problem is that it is very boring H2O.

Solution: having gone to the trouble of taking everything out, put three other other things back into it - calcium, magnesium and sodium bicarbonate. Apparently, Dasani tastes nicer that way, while still being "as pure as bottled water gets".

The water supply industry is unimpressed.

Barrie Clarke, spokesman for UK Water, which represents suppliers, said the suggestion behind the process seemed to be that there was something wrong with good old British tap water.

"We don't think there are any impurities in tap water," he said. "People don't need to buy this stuff to get excellent quality, healthy water. If they like the convenience, the style then fine but I don't think that is the way they are marketing this product. Tap water is pure, and that's the opinion of the Drinking Water Inspectorate which carries out three million checks a year."

Thames Water, which supplies the Sidcup area, said its tap water passed 99.92 per cent of quality tests.

Chris Shipway, the company's spokesman, said: "If the water regulator thought any more treatment was needed they would ask us to do so."

Coca-Cola was unrepentant. "The source of the water is irrelevant. It doesn't effect the end result. The aim is to ensure uniformity of quality and taste wherever you are in the UK.

"We would never say tap water isn't drinkable. It's just that Dasani is as pure as water can get. There are different levels of purity."

Coca-Cola is investing £7 million in the UK launch of Dasani, part of a worldwide expansion of the brand which is already the second most popular in America. Although the recommended price is 53p some retailers charge 95p.

Last year, Britons drank more than two billion litres of bottled water worth £1.2 billion, an 18 per cent increase on sales in 2002.

So is Coca-Cola preparing to enter other emerging markets - perhaps that for canned air?

"That's a joke. Right?"

[Placebo]

Having said that and lived in the UK 4 years, I can't blame Coke. Thames water is awful, lime-scaley cr*p.

[Snow Leopard]

quote:Originally posted by Paper Tiger

Never thought it would get to 64 today.
Assuming rmbbrave was first in the queue at 64 then about 1/8th of his holding as gone so far.
If it gets to 65 we know he was a winner and he can shout us all a bottle of saki :)

saki is off.
Those 7k were all that sold.

PS Good on rmbbrave for putting up his game plan in advance.

[limegreen]

People's obsession with water always amuses me. I've taken up the opportunity of drinking some very pure water, and frankly it tastes pretty rank. As coca-cola have so astutely noted, a number of 'impurities' vastly improve the taste of water. Although, you can add to their list some random carbon compounds. That beautiful water you can drink trickling over rocks just below the snowline has just picked up a whole load organic contamination, and tastes helluva better for it!

The other thing that terribly amuses me is home distallation systems. I'm not sure how sophisticated their distallation is, in theory if you filled it with 42below, you should get most of the product (including the ethanol) through to the other side. You'll only miss a few minor flavour compounds, but generally anything with a boiling point below 100 will make it to the other side. And those things must be *killer* on the power bill.

[boring]

I would think that 42B investors would much prefer the company to concentrate on achieving profitability first, b4 diversifying its product lines.

Watched an interesting piece on 20/20, which had a non-scientific study on bottled water vs New York tap water. They had 5 most popular bottled water bands, plus water from some manky tap in a New York playground. They got the public to taste and rank the different water, not disclosing the source of the samples. The top ranked water was the cheapest discount bottled water from Walmart, New York tap water came in third, and the expensive Evian bottled water came a clear last.

Nothing wrong with tap water here in NZ or Australia. I still won't drink tap water in countries that has hard water though.

[Lizard]

Sorry boring, FTB need the s.p. above 50cps because they need the warrants exercised. Expect more exciting announcements anytime between now and late October when ever the share price starts to flag....

Gryf is right. I have absolute respect for the marketing and PR skills of Mr G Ross. Long may he keep the punters from being distracted by profits. That way, maybe he can get the cash needed to build a business that might one day be a sound investment.

[$imon]

oldies, oldies, oldies...[}:)]
Allow me to butt in. If any of you had ever been to one of these new target outets you would realise the potential of this new foray. The kids are falling over themselves to pay the same price as a pint of lager for this bottled water! Get it?!?!? the stuff is essentially free, but will be raking in $5 a bottle. Look at the margins!!!! This is a proverbial ice to eskimoes scenario and if it can be pulled off, which it appears easy to do a-la-many other brands, then why not?

Still pi$$es me off when I'm out and have to pay for the stuff though because there is no other alternative. Most nightclubs heat their tapwater so that it is lukewarm to hot so as to force the punters to the bar to shell out the $5 for the privalege of having their h20 chilled.:(

This is big business and a clever play by FTB.

Cheers
$imon

[blackcap]

Simons quite right people and many nightclubs these days dont even shell out tap water. Rather you have to pay the $5 for the bottled variety. And when on the pills its not unusaual to go throught 5-10 on a night.

[R2]

Focusing on the product inside, H2O, is not the issue, beverage is about "badging" from a consumer perspective and about efficient distribution and leveraged marketing costs from a business model perspective. This product extention is leveraging all that,though interesting to see how they handle any issues around encouraging minors to consume (alchopop scenario).

Would love to see their psycographical data but this appears to have great potential to build Brand and business profits.

Have been in and out of the warrants, currently out but intend to get in to this one as high-value liquor brands once established are relatively safe due to the high cost of each unit leads to switching resistance. For the same reason not many new entrants get there. If they build enough share and brand awareness, someone will buy them. Likewise if the extension into water fails - so what.

[rmbbrave]

quote:Originally posted by blackcap

Simons quite right people and many nightclubs these days dont even shell out tap water. Rather you have to pay the $5 for the bottled variety. And when on the pills its not unusaual to go throught 5-10 on a night.


Are you people stupid or what?

You need only buy 1 glass or bottle (or even better bring your own vessel) make sure no one nicks it and refill it with tap water in the toilets.

You can do this with beer too.

Buy cans of beer at a convenience store, keep it wraped up in a towel with an ice pack in your bag and refill your glass under the table or in again in the toilets.

I used to do this all the time in Japan. Don't drink much now though.

[CJ]

rmbbrave,

See the earlier posts. Most nightclubs now only have warm or hot water coming out in the bathroom to stop what you suggest. therefore if you want water, you have to buy it. This is at clubs which is the target market, not your regular pub.

Continuing your theme, my friend use to make individual packets of double shot alchol (like tomato sauce sachets from McD's but full of run) so he use to go get the free "driver" coke which would then become a double rum and coke. he use to haev his socks loaded with them when he entered a bub, that way even if he was searched, they wouldn't find a hip flask.

[Snow Leopard]

Original by rmbbrave, edited by Paper Tiger.
Now which version reads better?



quote:Originally posted by blackcap

Simons quite right people and many nightclubs these days dont even shell out tap water. Rather you have to pay the $5 for the bottled variety. And when on the pills its not unusaual to go throught 5-10 on a night.


Are you people stupid or what?

You need only buy 1 glass or bottle (or even better bring your own vessel) make sure no one nicks it and refill it with tap water in the toilets.

You can do this with beer too.

I used to do this all the time in Japan. Don't drink much now though.

[KJ]

Sure PT-but do young people think like that?-strikes me that they would be happy to pay a few bucks for water.

[Snow Leopard]

Ah.. I see I am on a wavelength all of my own. [B)]






As usual ;)

[blackcap]

[/quote]

Are you people stupid or what?

You need only buy 1 glass or bottle (or even better bring your own vessel) make sure no one nicks it and refill it with tap water in the toilets.

[/quote]

Have you ever seen the inside of a toilet in a nightclub at 2am?

[R2]

Suggest this is a good place to reference.

http://42below.com/barshots/gallery.htm

If you look like one of these people your personal views regarding likely product uptake may be relevant, if you don't then probably not.

[Placebo]

You guys are all missing the point. This is simply marketing strategy. Launch a new product, any product, to increase sales and exposure. Also fits with the FTB strategy of launching products into existing markets (i.e. bottled water market). Therefore you don't have to invest in pre-marketing, you simply launch your product, and the consumer buys it.

This is a smart play, and the market agrees. FTB now up to 63c.

[marinesalvor]

well done Placebo for pointing this out

quite obviously most sharetrader "experts" have never actually experienced brand management or international business

[KJ]

I don't think that you would have needed experience in brand management or international business to have worked this out.

Common sense would do-I am sure most people would have understood this for themselves.

[TGT05]

Has only traded at .63 for very small trades. Hope it gets back down to the 50's soon, ready to invest

[Bubble Boy]

quote:Originally posted by Placebo


Therefore you don't have to invest in pre-marketing, you simply launch your product, and the consumer buys it.



Is this really the case? Does it really fit? Happy to be corrected on the following points.

- 42b distributes booze through liquor outlets, duty free and pubs. How many of these sell water? None, except clubs (as mentioned before) which is a small part of current network.
- the water market has been taken over by large multinationals with massive marketing budgets. FTB are now taking on coke, pepsi, etc.
- the bulk of water is sold in convenience store and supermarket fridges. Shelf space is a premium and costs big $$ for the good spots.
- on top of this, ftb are heading for the premium end. More $$ for advertising. Can they cross sell to young kiddies in their booze ads? Not so sure with restrictions on liquor advertising.
- there have been some spectacular failures in the bottled water market. see MatauriX (sp?) Hope they understand the costs.

[Placebo]

Bubble Boy; Does it fit? Yes on all counts.

FTB is accustomed to taking on the big players. You mention Coke and Pepsi. The vodka market is saturated internationally with some very well known brands (Smirnoff etc) as well as a highly competitive flavoured and super-premium end (Finlandia etc etc). Their approach has always been `if we can get 1pc of a $10bn industry we get $100m'. Would suspect this is their approach with the water bizzo too.

They are not intending to distribute via supermarkets, simply in bars and clubs. Therefore they can distribute through existing networks into existing clients.

Cross-sell to kiddies? Can't see what you're driving at there. This is water designed to sell to e-poppers in clubs.

I'm sure they understand the costs very well. But I'm sure they have done the numbers on the kind of huge margins achievable from a product such as this. Same as they have done with their vodka. In that regard, they are profitable in 2 out of 4 markets and on the verge of profitability in a third.

The marketing ethos behind this move is "there's one born every minute" :D

[spector]

quote:Originally posted by Bubble Boy


quote:Originally posted by Placebo


Therefore you don't have to invest in pre-marketing, you simply launch your product, and the consumer buys it.



Is this really the case? Does it really fit? Happy to be corrected on the following points.

- 42b distributes booze through liquor outlets, duty free and pubs. How many of these sell water? None, except clubs (as mentioned before) which is a small part of current network.
- the water market has been taken over by large multinationals with massive marketing budgets. FTB are now taking on coke, pepsi, etc.
- the bulk of water is sold in convenience store and supermarket fridges. Shelf space is a premium and costs big $$ for the good spots.
- on top of this, ftb are heading for the premium end. More $$ for advertising. Can they cross sell to young kiddies in their booze ads? Not so sure with restrictions on liquor advertising.
- there have been some spectacular failures in the bottled water market. see MatauriX (sp?) Hope they understand the costs.




In most American clubs you can't sell bottled water in a glass container... something to do with safety issues... so San pelligrino et al are not available. The other plastic bottled waters look really naff (FIJI Water is the biggest club brand in America that I saw). So if you have a cool looking bottle that isn't glass then you've already won half the battle.

The other thing to think about is the use of a loss leader to sell your other products. For example if a club has 42 BELOW as a house pour vodka then FTB can give them 420 water at cost as part of the deal. FTB wins by getting the money for the vodka and the club wins by getting a water that looks cool, comes in a plastic container, and has a higher retail margin for them.

Not sure if that's what FTB plans to do.. but that's what I would do.

[Winnie Burgers]

TGT take another look @ todays trading - you might want to re evaluate your entry price??

[rmbbrave]

quote:Originally posted by rmbbrave

I'm on my lunch break here in Japan.

One class down, 2 to go.

7227 out of 20000 sold. Profit about $200

Dion Nash all is forgiven!

When I was a nipper I once played against Dion. He smashed my best deliveries for four and bowled me neck and crop for a duck.


All gone now! Thanks Dion.

[TGT05]

Yes I might have to, the water is having bigger effect than thought, still be interesting to see if rise continues.

[rmbbrave]

Yes yes, selling water is a good idea.

But FTB's share price is built on hype not results.

Whether the hype is justified or not only time will tell.

The water won't even start selling for 3 months and that is plenty of time for the hype over the water to fade and the SP along with it.

[Bling_Bling]

Wouldnt it make sense to be launching 42 Below fruit juices? You usually mix vodka with fruit juice. Call me old fashion, cos I havnt been to a night club for ages.

[TGT05]

Surey that would be a much more technical operation than bottled water though bling

[marinesalvor]

TGT - they would do what they normally do - cooperate with a contract manufacturer

[TerryA]

Take over Spectrum (and Charlies) ???

[spector]

As much as I hate to agree with the FTB nay-sayers... they do have a point. The company is growing exceptionally well but for the share price to respond they have to start posting a profit. I continue to accumulate this stock because i firmly believe the share price will rocket on their first profit posting... but that will have to come before the A Warrants mature for their own credibility.

[KJ]

I do not believe that moving into fruit juices is smart or on their agenda.
They need to stick to the task of developing the vodka business in the USA-this still requires a lot of resources and the coy will succeed or fail based on how well they do in the USA.

[Winnie Burgers]

Originally posted by rmbbrave
The water won't even start selling for 3 months and that is plenty of time for the hype over the water to fade and the SP along with it.
3 months?! Try 3 days!! :(
:D

[marinesalvor]

buy them while you can Winnie B

[Winnie Burgers]

The 10K I have so far have made me a profit of -19%.
That'll do for now ...
:)

[Placebo]

KJ I agree wholeheartedly. Mind you, I never thought bottled water was on their agenda or part of their "core business", yet there you have it.

Not much mention of the gin these days...

[spector]

quote:Originally posted by marinesalvor

buy them while you can Winnie B



Ahhhh the eternal "if-only" delema Winnie.... if-only i had bought... if only i hadn't..... if only i'd sold.... if only i'd kept...

Personally my accumulation strategy quite likes a nice little downturn.

[marinesalvor]

WB - in the immortal words of the guru Donner - "average down" !!!!!

[Winnie Burgers]

I'm a total novice to this game.
I'm learning from my mistakes - the best way to learn aye.
I'm having fun - earning money working - losing money through stupidity :)

I'm in the same mindset as spector - one day this share price will rocket ... one day

[Winnie Burgers]

Here's a good example of my stupidity:

I somehow accidently came across SEA on the ASX. I know nothing about these guys but seeing they've just recently listed on the ASX and shares were only 25.5 I brought 2K in the hope they strike big and I make sum $$ :D

Watch this space

[Gryffyn]

Hey RMB - you must be feeling fairly satisfied with your quick trade. At what point would you come back in again?

Still hanging onto my top-up shares and warrants.

[Placebo]

Winnie, all I can say is you have a novel investment methodology
I wish you luck. You're gonna need it.

Edited to add: Perhaps you should start a new thread on your approach in the "investment strategy" section.

[rmbbrave]

quote:Originally posted by Gryffyn

Hey RMB - you must be feeling fairly satisfied with your quick trade. At what point would you come back in again?

Still hanging onto my top-up shares and warrants.


I'm not sure now.

I didn't think the feel good factor created by the water announcement would fade so fast.

I actually expected to be muttering "I shouldn't have sold so soon" to myself for the next few days.

[spector]

quote:Originally posted by Placebo


Not much mention of the gin these days...


just went to the 42 website... South Gin just got a "grande gold with palm leaves" award in belgium.

42 got gold as well.

[Gryffyn]

quote:Originally posted by rmbbrave


quote:Originally posted by Gryffyn

Hey RMB - you must be feeling fairly satisfied with your quick trade. At what point would you come back in again?

Still hanging onto my top-up shares and warrants.


I'm not sure now.

I didn't think the feel good factor created by the water announcement would fade so fast.

I actually expected to be muttering "I shouldn't have sold so soon" to myself for the next few days.

fast fading feel factor may create re-entry oppo for you then