42 Below - Beyond the IPO...

[marinesalvor]

you dont like the product, or the company, or the financials

ANSWER:
dont buy any of their shares

and just maybe...
dont waste your time hanging around the thread!

[barnsley bill]

Oh, obviously I misunderstood the purpose of this site. If somebody had let me know all comments were supposed to be of the cheerleader variety we could have saved some effort.
My mistake:D

[marinesalvor]

not cheerleading - just news and clever insight

something that you and doughboy dont seem to possess

[Dough Boy]

quote:Originally posted by marinesalvor

not cheerleading - just news and clever insight

something that you and doughboy dont seem to possess


Oh but it is just too entertaining to read the threads of drival on the latest party were some unnamed patron was seen drinking 42B and how that will help help the bottomline of this startup.

And MS have you been to London?

[barnsley bill]

I also participate for the humour content on this thread.
Question 1. How much money did the original investors put in. This is the key point, the "value" is supposedly in the marketing but the underlying problem is fashions change. If they are entering into these fantastic distribution deals who is going to keep the hype going.
Question 2. when would they expect to stop bleeding shareholder cash. Even a rough guide on when they might stop tipping money in and achieve "break even" would be good... 2006, 2007, 2008 ???

[Dough Boy]

quote:Originally posted by barnsley bill

I also participate for the humour content on this thread.
Question 1. How much money did the original investors put in. This is the key point, the "value" is supposedly in the marketing but the underlying problem is fashions change. If they are entering into these fantastic distribution deals who is going to keep the hype going.
Question 2. when would they expect to stop bleeding shareholder cash. Even a rough guide on when they might stop tipping money in and achieve "break even" would be good... 2006, 2007, 2008 ???




BB it not a laughing matter that money is being lost on this stock except if its not your own, ha ha ha.

[Placebo]

Barnsley Bill and Dough Boy: FYI I am a holder since IPO. I have not lost money: Quite the opposite, currently 40% up.

Also, the last statement from FTB suggested that the just-announced distribution deals in the US will allow the company to back away from this side of the business to focus on marketing. This is where the expertise is with this company. Essentially it is a marketing company which has chosen vodka (and latterly other drinks) as the product of choice. With some success, it has to be said. Ross's comments were to the effect that the new distribution deals will probably mean break-even will be achieved in the US this year. Quite a contrast from the previous period. They are already profitable in NZ, UK, and probably now Australia.

Here's the latest statement to market:

quote:FTB
14/09/2005
FORECAST

REL: 1617 HRS 42 Below Limited

FORECAST: FTB: 42 Below expects case sales to rise 70% this financial year.

42 Below expects case sales to rise 70% this financial year.

As the exercise period for "series 1" (FTBWA) warrants commences on 1 October
the directors of 42 Below thought it appropriate to provide the market with
guidance on how the company is expected to perform this financial year. The
following statistics provide key measures.

2005 Financial Year (Actual)

Case sales (9 Litre) 55,000
Revenue $12.2m
EBITDA ($5.1m)

2006 Financial Year (Projected)

Case sales (9 Litre) 89,000 - 98,000 (midpoint 93,500)
Revenue $14.8m - $16.2m (midpoint $15.5m)
EBITDA ($3.5m) - ($3.8m) (midpoint $3.65m)

Percentage Improvement (At Midpoint)

Case sales (9 Litre) 70%
Revenue 27%
EBITDA 28%

Overhead Expenditure to Achieve $1 Margin
2003; 2004; 2005; 2006 (projected)
$5.50; $2.13; $1.80; $1.48

Case sales will increase at a higher rate than revenue as the company is
selling more products into bond, therefore the impact of excise tax on
revenue continues to diminish. Also, in some markets the company has reduced
the wholesale price in return for the importer assuming all or some of the
companys overheads. However, improved manufacturing efficiencies mean that
margin levels remain similar at approximately 50%.

The directors believe the loss at EBITDA level will be significantly smaller
than the loss in 2005. This is because sales volumes in all markets are
growing while overheads remain reasonably stable. In the USA overheads will
reduce substantially from November 18 as Panache LLC assumes all 42 Belows
costs apart from a volume based marketing rebate. The US represents the
companys largest cost centre and the shedding of overheads will move that
market into profit after November 18. This means that the second half year
loss will be reduced to about 50% of the first half.

The directors are pleased with the growth of the business and the projected
trend of continuing to move closer to a break even position as sales grow

The period I'm looking to is when they stop quoting their volumes by cases and start quoting them by shipping container loads. :D

[Gryffyn]

A never-ending parade of idiots and bores, or perhaps the same few with different monikers, continue to warn us of our folly and how this share will lose us money.

News flash for the uninformed - we know the risks and are currently laughing all the way to the bank.

The dealers in sour grapes would be more appropriate on a whine (sic) thread ;)

We know the risk reward ratio of venture capital. Others apparantly do not understand Venture Capital Investments

[nottiger]

quote:Originally posted by Placebo

Barnsley Bill and Dough Boy: FYI I am a holder since IPO. I have not lost money: Quite the opposite, currently 40% up.

[quote]FTB
14/09/2005
FORECAST

REL: 1617 HRS 42 Below Limited

FORECAST: FTB: 42 Below expects case sales to rise 70% this financial year.

42 Below expects case sales to rise 70% this financial year.

As the exercise period for "series 1" (FTBWA) warrants commences on 1 October
the directors of 42 Below thought it appropriate to provide the market with
guidance on how the company is expected to perform this financial year. The
following statistics provide key measures.

2005 Financial Year (Actual)

Case sales (9 Litre) 55,000
Revenue $12.2m
EBITDA ($5.1m)

2006 Financial Year (Projected)

Case sales (9 Litre) 89,000 - 98,000 (midpoint 93,500)
Revenue $14.8m - $16.2m (midpoint $15.5m)
EBITDA ($3.5m) - ($3.8m) (midpoint $3.65m)

Percentage Improvement (At Midpoint)

Case sales (9 Litre) 70%
Revenue 27%
EBITDA 28%

Overhead Expenditure to Achieve $1 Margin
2003; 2004; 2005; 2006 (projected)
$5.50; $2.13; $1.80; $1.48

Case sales will increase at a higher rate than revenue as the company is
selling more products into bond, therefore the impact of excise tax on
revenue continues to diminish. Also, in some markets the company has reduced
the wholesale price in return for the importer assuming all or some of the
companys overheads. However, improved manufacturing efficiencies mean that
margin levels remain similar at approximately 50%.

The directors believe the loss at EBITDA level will be significantly smaller
than the loss in 2005. This is because sales volumes in all markets are
growing while overheads remain reasonably stable. In the USA overheads will
reduce substantially from November 18 as Panache LLC assumes all 42 Belows
costs apart from a volume based marketing rebate. The US represents the
companys largest cost centre and the shedding of overheads will move that
market into profit after November 18. This means that the second half year
loss will be reduced to about 50% of the first half.

The directors are pleased with the growth of the business and the projected
trend of continuing to move closer to a break even position as sales grow

Barnsley Bill and Dough Boy - which part of the above is scary?

YES FTB works the PR well, giving an impression of being just hype - but are they delivering? [?]

I wonder if you were to disclose your portfolio it may be more short term than many FTB investors>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>

As a start up CEO I certainly have nothing to invest!:( but think the long term of FTB is sound:)

Cheers Simon

[The Doctor]

take the 03 year out (inserted to make things look better),and it is very uninspiring...what about the water,gin,rum?They ring every drop of publicity well,but as theysay in America....'wheres the beef'?

[barnsley bill]

quote:Originally posted by The Doctor

take the 03 year out (inserted to make things look better),and it is very uninspiring...what about the water,gin,rum?They ring every drop of publicity well,but as theysay in America....'wheres the beef'?


David wright just took a 6.3% stake. How do we find out who he bought the shares from?

[StainlessSteelRat]

quote:Originally posted by ENIGMA

We know the risk reward ratio of venture capital. Others apparantly do not understand Venture Capital Investments


Or others understand it all too well. As i see it the punters are taking the risk, and the founders are reaping the reward. :D

[blackcap]

[
[/quote]

Or others understand it all too well. As i see it the punters are taking the risk, and the founders are reaping the reward. :D
[/quote]

SSR its well past that stage now. If you want to make comments like the above, make them prior to the IPO, not after as they are not that valid anymore.

[spector]

quote:Originally posted by StainlessSteelRat


quote:Originally posted by ENIGMA

We know the risk reward ratio of venture capital. Others apparantly do not understand Venture Capital Investments


Or others understand it all too well. As i see it the punters are taking the risk, and the founders are reaping the reward. :D


I'm a punter SST. My FTB portfolio is currently up 56.3%. How is this a bad investment?

[Placebo]

Spector: They are jealous and in denial. We know the facts, we are living them [^]

Wait until the water takes off too. Blue skies ahead [^][^]

[spector]

it's weird how many people on this site are infected with the Labour partys "making money = evil" mantra.

[Gryffyn]

I think that's a long bow to draw Spec.

[spector]

Too late Gryff, long bow drawn. Pass me one of those really big arrows Gregor!

spector a lot of people on this site are of the opinion that labour is creating the correct atmosphere for making money

[spector]

quote:Originally posted by ENIGMA

spector a lot of people on this site are of the opinion that labour is creating the correct atmosphere for making money


Certainly Labour have been good for employment. The IRD have hired two extra guys to keep a track of my tax and I've hired a fulltime tax accountant to keep them at bay.

[barnsley bill]

quote:Originally posted by ENIGMA

spector a lot of people on this site are of the opinion that labour is creating the correct atmosphere for making money

Not me........
I asked does anybody know who david wright bought his shares from. Also I congratulate all those who have bought shares in this company and are up. I congratulate you.
My comments and questions re this stock are those of a newbie who is trying to understand this game and having some personal knowledge and experience of a couple of prelist shareholders have been following with interest the fortunes of FTB.
:D

[The Doctor]

BBill...my guess ...off the principals of the coy....as time to excercise warrants nears...a confidence spin...most likely a cosy 'warehousing' arrangement with no valid reality to anything of substance.This Ross must have read Packard and Vance at primary school...as a trading stock...the 'bigger fool' theory,- traders can make money,quite clearly long term investors need a lot of faith!

[barnsley bill]

quote:Originally posted by The Doctor

BBill...my guess ...off the principals of the coy....as time to excercise warrants nears...a confidence spin...most likely a cosy 'warehousing' arrangement with no valid reality to anything of substance.This Ross must have read Packard and Vance at primary school...as a trading stock...the 'bigger fool' theory,- traders can make money,quite clearly long term investors need a lot of faith!


complete agreement............. other than, why does everybody assume ross is driving??

[Dough Boy]

quote:Originally posted by nottiger


quote:Originally posted by Placebo

Barnsley Bill and Dough Boy: FYI I am a holder since IPO. I have not lost money: Quite the opposite, currently 40% up.

[quote]FTB
14/09/2005
FORECAST

REL: 1617 HRS 42 Below Limited

FORECAST: FTB: 42 Below expects case sales to rise 70% this financial year.

42 Below expects case sales to rise 70% this financial year.

As the exercise period for "series 1" (FTBWA) warrants commences on 1 October
the directors of 42 Below thought it appropriate to provide the market with
guidance on how the company is expected to perform this financial year. The
following statistics provide key measures.

2005 Financial Year (Actual)

Case sales (9 Litre) 55,000
Revenue $12.2m
EBITDA ($5.1m)

2006 Financial Year (Projected)

Case sales (9 Litre) 89,000 - 98,000 (midpoint 93,500)
Revenue $14.8m - $16.2m (midpoint $15.5m)
EBITDA ($3.5m) - ($3.8m) (midpoint $3.65m)

Percentage Improvement (At Midpoint)

Case sales (9 Litre) 70%
Revenue 27%
EBITDA 28%

Overhead Expenditure to Achieve $1 Margin
2003; 2004; 2005; 2006 (projected)
$5.50; $2.13; $1.80; $1.48

Case sales will increase at a higher rate than revenue as the company is
selling more products into bond, therefore the impact of excise tax on
revenue continues to diminish. Also, in some markets the company has reduced
the wholesale price in return for the importer assuming all or some of the
companys overheads. However, improved manufacturing efficiencies mean that
margin levels remain similar at approximately 50%.

The directors believe the loss at EBITDA level will be significantly smaller
than the loss in 2005. This is because sales volumes in all markets are
growing while overheads remain reasonably stable. In the USA overheads will
reduce substantially from November 18 as Panache LLC assumes all 42 Belows
costs apart from a volume based marketing rebate. The US represents the
companys largest cost centre and the shedding of overheads will move that
market into profit after November 18. This means that the second half year
loss will be reduced to about 50% of the first half.

The directors are pleased with the growth of the business and the projected
trend of continuing to move closer to a break even position as sales grow

Barnsley Bill and Dough Boy - which part of the above is scary?

YES FTB works the PR well, giving an impression of being just hype - but are they delivering? [?]

I wonder if you were to disclose your portfolio it may be more short term than many FTB investors>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>

As a start up CEO I certainly have nothing to invest!:( but think the long term of FTB is sound:)

Cheers Simon



Just plotted out the cost of a $1 sale from annual results of 2003 to 2006 forecast.

Yes, they are reducing their 'margin of losses', but the graph does not look promising, given the current trend, that a break even point will be reached in the not too distant future (next two years,) meanwhile the dilutive effect of warrant exercises (to pay for the losses to date, and going forward) will mean any future profit will be minimal on a per share basis.

I agree that 42B may make a profit one day but at the expense of a lot of start-up equity, and I personally would not rule out buying-in when they are attractively priced in regards to earnings.

[barnsley bill]

Try it again without the 2003 figures............
Would like to buy in hopefully at around 10 cents the day before they are bought by SMIRNOFF
And has anybody found out who the new cornerstone share holder bought from to gain 6+ % holding:D

[blackcap]

quote:Originally posted by barnsley bill

Try it again without the 2003 figures............
Would like to buy in hopefully at around 10 cents the day before they are bought by SMIRNOFF
And has anybody found out who the new cornerstone share holder bought from to gain 6+ % holding:D


From what I can see, from the founders at 60 cents per share. To help them convert the series 1 warrants.

[The Doctor]

quote:Originally posted by blackcap


quote:Originally posted by barnsley bill

Try it again without the 2003 figures............
Would like to buy in hopefully at around 10 cents the day before they are bought by SMIRNOFF
And has anybody found out who the new cornerstone share holder bought from to gain 6+ % holding:D


From what I can see, from the founders at 60 cents per share. To help them convert the series 1 warrants.




wonder if any money changed hands...or is it a Jones' special sell for x..and buy back for ...y!

[rmbbrave]

Wright buys 6pc stake in 42 Below
17 September 2005
By ADRIAN BATHGATE and MARTA STEEMAN

From clothes to vodka, Max Fashions founder David Wright has been on a $14 million shopping spree this week, but is tight-lipped about his reasons.


Yesterday vodka and gin company 42 Below said Mr Wright had agreed to take a 6.3 per cent stake in the company in an off-market purchase from the founding shareholders.

The holding, worth $8.3 million, comes just days after Mr Wright spent $6 million to take his shareholding in clothing retailer Hallenstein Glasson to 7.11 per cent.

Mr Wright declined to speak to BusinessDay about either investment.

The chief executive of 42 Below, Geoff Ross, said Mr Wright had built a great brand in Max. The company was pleased to have him as a shareholder.

Mr Wright sold a majority stake in his home-grown 34-store Max Fashions chain to investors Direct Capital Partners in July. He is rumoured to have pocketed about $45 million from the sale.

One broker said Mr Wright may make further buys, if he has more cash to spare.

"He may be becoming a professional investor, looking for companies that appear to be undervalued."

Mr Wright was keen to contribute ideas to 42 Below in an informal capacity, Mr Ross said, but he did not rule out Mr Wright joining the board.

"It's probably too early to tell, but in the future it's something we might discuss, but we haven't as yet.

"It's an informal role. He has expressed interest in passing on his learnings and we would be happy to receive them."

Mr Ross said Mr Wright respected the 42 Below brand and what it had created in a short term. "I think he realises it's a global opportunity, and the scope of that has some appeal."

AdvertisementAdvertisement42 Below also announced yesterday that it was offering shareholders with options the chance to exercise those next month, which could add as much as $10 million to the company's cash reserves.

Mr Wright remains managing director of Max Fashions for another year and then will become executive chairman. He still holds about 8.6 per cent of the company.

Hallenstein Glasson also declined to comment on Mr Wright's increased stake. It already has a cornerstone shareholder, Tim Glasson, with 20.3 per cent.

A full takeover of Hallenstein Glasson would cost $285 million at current share prices and a partial, $142 million.

Direct Capital Partners managing director Ross George said: "Max is looking at other expansion opportunities itself."

Asked if Max wanted to merge with Hallenstein Glasson, Mr George said: "The answer to that at this stage is No"

[spector]

looks like the buy is going through now.

[BRICKS]

quote:Originally posted by spector

looks like the buy is going through now.


Every body makes mistakes this is just another one.. [8D]

[Placebo]

"Successful rich guy buys stake in expanding company"

Another nail in the FTB coffin :D:D

[marinesalvor]

good one bricks

[Gryffyn]

quote:Originally posted by BRICKS


quote:Originally posted by spector

looks like the buy is going through now.


Every body makes mistakes this is just another one.. [8D]

you mean your post? ;)

[Gryffyn]

Just think - the dude could have got twice the number of shares when FTB was at its low point just post IPO. The market - ya gotta love it.

[nottiger]

quote:Originally posted by Gryffyn

Just think - the dude could have got twice the number of shares when FTB was at its low point just post IPO. The market - ya gotta love it.



Perhaps Gryffyn - remember he bought off market, and the sellers may have been thinking of how to fund the A warrants approaching - probably were _ I see they bought their piles at 50c 10 days ago or so

NT

[spector]

42 Below Tops the Deloitte/Unlimited Fast 50
Friday, 21 October 2005, 12:30 pm
Press Release: Deloitte
Media Release
21 October, 2005

First time entrant 42 Below Tops the Deloitte/Unlimited Fast 50

42 Below, the daring marketer and producer of premium vodka, gin and water has taken first place in this year’s Deloitte/Unlimited Fast 50 index – for the fastest growing companies in New Zealand.

This is the first time the well known Auckland based manufacturing company has entered the index. The three year old operation has managed to top the table with a phenomenal revenue growth rate of 2116%.

According to Brett Chambers the Deloitte partner heading the research process, the massive growth rate is a stunning example of entrepreneurial flare and effective planning and execution.

“We started the Fast 50 index five years ago, and we saw then the IT sector was just starting to make its mark. Two IT focused companies in the top five this year proves that this sector has cemented itself as a fast growing and value adding part of our economy, but with 42 Below taking first place, the more traditional businesses prove they can grow just as fast despite the shortage of skilled labour, the high New Zealand dollar and competing imports,” adds Chambers.

This is again evident with the number three fast growing company, Climate Coatings Ltd. This manufacturing business delivered 1259% revenue growth in the last two years, a fantastic result for this sector.

ITmaniacs an IT recruitment company took second place with 1287% growth.
Last year’s winner Trade Me came in at number 4 on the index.

“Specialist recruitment companies are also featured prominently in this year’s index, providing services that many organizations are seeking in a tight labour market,” says Brett Chambers.

During the research process all the Fast 50 entrants were asked about their business outlook for growth. More than half the participants were confident their growth would continue.

“One of the strongest messages coming through this year is that the customer is king. The Fast 50 entrants identified a strong customer focus as the key driver to their success. Interestingly the same hurdles facing growth businesses continue to present themselves” says Brett Chambers.
“Access to capital, recruiting good staff, healthy cash flow, and a proper infrastructure for growth are the same challenges that fast growth companies were grappling with five years ago.”
“What is good to see though, is the number of companies making their second or third appearance in the Fast 50. Achieving over 100% growth in any two year period is a remarkable achievement but to achieve this kind of growth year on year is truly phenomenal,” adds Brett Chambers.

[Placebo]

I noticed this Deloittes list last year. From memory there were no listed companies in the top 10. Spector do you have the full list?

Given that FTB is still making a loss, I wonder what measure they are using to measure "growth".

[Placebo]

Found the full list. Further details at http://www.deloitte.com/dtt/section_node/0,1042,sid%253D90872,00.html.

The rankings are by revenue growth.

Rankings:

Rank Name City Revenue Growth
1 42 Below Ltd Auckland 2116.19%
2 ITmaniacs Ltd Auckland 1287.99%
3 Climate Coating Ltd Auckland 1259.68%
4 Trade Me Ltd Wellington 1113.22%
5 Datasquirt Ltd Auckland 912.16%
6 Mactec Aerospace International Ltd Christchurch 853.46%
7 propertyfinance securities Ltd Christchurch 832.47%
8 Watson Davies Transport Ltd Hamilton 749.69%
9 XSol Ltd Auckland 738.98%
10 iSERVE Ltd Wellington 536.31%
11 Enatel Ltd Christchurch 521.99%
12 SLI Systems, Inc Christchurch 476.91%
13 DKW Personnel Ltd Christchurch 461.24%
14 The Hyperfactory Ltd Auckland 454.86%
15 Dataview Design Ltd Auckland 404.68%
16 chalkydigits Ltd Christchurch 374.07%
17 SPANTECH Buildings Ltd Hamilton 365.52%
18 Kiwibank Ltd Wellington 363.42%
19 Stonyer & Associates Ltd Wellington 361.90%
20 Radius Pharmacy Ltd Wellington 341.75%
21 MotorWeb Auckland 339.52%
22 Tasman Pacific Insurance Ltd Christchurch 325.96%
23 Breathe Communications Ltd Wellington 324.69%
24 Blackhead Quarries Ltd Dunedin 302.52%
25 Contractors Bonding Ltd Auckland 301.88%
26 Seek NZ Ltd Auckland 300.60%
27 i-solutions Ltd Wellington 291.30%
28 Planet Fun Ltd Auckland 286.39%
29 Provincial Finance Ltd Christchurch 274.83%
30 Leisure Holdings Ltd Hamilton 265.27%
31 Blue South Ltd Wanaka 263.81%
32 Conversa Global Ltd Auckland 247.51%
33 Icepak Group Ltd Hamilton 245.18%
34 AM PM Calling Ltd Wellington 218.21%
35 PolyMEDIA Ltd Nelson 212.99%
36 Pathway Engineering Ltd Christchurch 191.90%
37 Brand Communications Ltd Queenstown 187.96%
38 Run the Red Ltd Wellington 186.45%
39 DL Consulting Ltd Hamilton 180.59%
40 Noske-Kaeser NZ Ltd Palmerston North 175.25%
41 The Icehouse Ltd Auckland 174.02%
42 4RF Communications Ltd Wellington 168.98%
43 New Zealand Finance Holdings Ltd Auckland 167.32%
44 New Zealand Tourism Online Ltd Christchurch 166.00%
45 InFact Ltd Christchurch 163.97%
46 Nomad Safaris Queenstown 163.28%
47 Mexi-Foods NZ Ltd Dunedin 157.15%
48 Xytech Technologies Ltd Auckland 152.74%
49 Hotchilly Ltd Wellington 145.75%
50 Euro Corporation Ltd Auckland 139.82%

[spector]

quote:
Given that FTB is still making a loss, I wonder what measure they are using to measure "growth".


I see from the Deloittes site that "growth" is measured on 'revenue growth'. I also see that the second place getter only got half 42's growth... and at 2000% you can't argue that they are not growing as a company. That growth however comes at the expense of profit which seems to be the only thing most share buyers are interested in... so my ftb portfolio is unlikely to grow by 2000% on the back of this news. Still...live in hope.

[spector]

From the NBR...



High dollar doesn't hurt this exporter

If you've finally broken down and loaded your refrigerator with vodka, gin and premium water from 42 Below, you're not alone.

The three-year-old company, well known for its design and marketing flair, has topped the Deloitte/Unlimited Fast 50 index with a phenomenal revenue growth rate of 2116 per cent.

That makes it the fastest growing company in New Zealand.

[rmbbrave]

Kiwis start selling vodka to Russians
23 October 2005
By GREG NINNESS

Liquor company 42 Below has started selling vodka to the Russians. The listed spirits company is supplying a big liquor distributor in the former Russian province of Azerbaijan, and a mail order liquor retailer in Russia.


42 Below chief executive Geoff Ross said the quantities it was exporting to to Russia were small - the Azerbaijani company has taken 600 cases - but it was a sign of increasing interest from that part of the world, where vodka was the national drink.

42 Below was proceeding cautiously because Russian firms could be notoriously bad payers. The company would supply Russian firms only if they paid up front.

The mail order business had potential to grow, as it operated in Russia's big metropolitan markets of Moscow and St Petersburg. Some large traditional distributors were also starting to show some interest.

But 42 Below was likely to gain more immediate benefits from deals which had put its vodka on the shelves of big retailers in America and Britain.

DFA (Duty Free America) was stocking 42 Below as a standard line, and liquor chain Oddbins was selling it in the UK.

Ross said the DFA deal was particularly promising because duty free outlets were the firm's biggest customers in New Zealand, and he expected the same trend could develop in the US. DFA had more than 100 outlets, many in the world's busiest airports.

[Placebo]

They better watch out, they'll be importing Ladas as payment next :D

Selling vodka to Russia, whatever next? FTB ice to Iceland?

[nottiger]

quote:Originally posted by Placebo

They better watch out, they'll be importing Ladas as payment next :D

Selling vodka to Russia, whatever next? FTB ice to Iceland?


I remember driving a LADA - OK but the reverse gear was quite highly geared - kind of like a 2nd gear in reverse! - could be an interesting demolition derby car?

Scene : Spare Parts Counter at Repco Store
Customer: "Do you have a rear windscreen wiper for a Lada?"
Salesperson; "OK - Fair trade - It's a deal!
[8D]

[spector]

Funnily enough I've been in a couple of demolition derbys with Ladas and you're right they are incredibly hard to kill! Although to get the edge you really want a toyota corolla or a honda civic because their engines just keep on going as long as you protect the CV joints.

[marinesalvor]

OK - what do people think of the half year announcement???

[Phaedrus]

MS - it's fairly clear what the market thinks.

FTB was in a strong uptrend. After giving a trendline-break sell signal it formed a Symmetrical Triangle. Statistically, this ought to have been followed by an upside breakout. It wasn't - it broke to the downside.
FTB has now been in a downtrend for 2 months.

http://img.photobucket.com/albums/v418/789456/FTB1116001.gif

[marinesalvor]

Thanks Phaedrus

[MeNoBatty]

Have they launched the 420 water yet?

[The Doctor]

seems to have 'evaporated'...just an announcement to support the inflated s/p...still over $12mil to 'play' with...and the good news..now only $1.72 of exp to create $1 of rev....wow!The s/holders in this excercise in 'spin' are the most optimistic 'bunnies' ever born![:p]

[MeNoBatty]

My, how times have changed. Previous results announcments caused this thread to light up.

Seems (reletive) low earnings growth of 25% on last year, delays of the 420 water launch, high cost per dollar of revenue and continuing losses have take the fizz out of FTB.

Still got $12m in the bank so wont be going down the gurgler anytime soon, but can they do anything usefull with it?

[barnsley bill]

yup sell out at 40 cents when they run out of cash netting the original shareholders an enormous profit

[Snow Leopard]

As a kiwi company 42below is something I look for when wandering amongst the drinks shelves, which is usually for me, at some airport or other. And wish them every success but.......

My problem with 42B is it may be the fashionable drink around the part of world at the moment, (I am assuming it is still in fashion, I have not noticed it in the web news headlines recently) but fashions change for no (to me) readily apparent reason, and it is not the cheapest bottle of flavoured vodka on the shelves. I know what feijoa is, but does most of the world?

[Snow Leopard]

PS when I say feijoa I, of course, imply manuka honey (possibly my favourite) and kiwifruit.

[Caesius]

Sheesh SP has taken a fall in the past few days. A case of no news being bad?

[marinesalvor]

just a perceived lack of progress I'd say

[barnsley bill]

why waste good spin when the warrants are over for another year!!

[nottiger]

quote:Originally posted by Phaedrus

MS - it's fairly clear what the market thinks.

FTB was in a strong uptrend. After giving a trendline-break sell signal it formed a Symmetrical Triangle. Statistically, this ought to have been followed by an upside breakout. It wasn't - it broke to the downside.
FTB has now been in a downtrend for 2 months.

http://img.photobucket.com/albums/v418/789456/FTB1116001.gif


Hi, very nice graph but of course if you change it to a 3 month average trend line it would be generally up over the whole period with recent flattening and dip - If you want to invest very actively (in out in out) then perhaps the graph is useful... but some investors would look at the longer term

Problem with graphs is the data assumes that investors are intelligent and rational -

Cheers

[Snow Leopard]

quote:Originally posted by nottiger
Hi, very nice graph but of course if you change it to a 3 month average trend line it would be generally up over the whole period with recent flattening and dip - If you want to invest very actively (in out in out) then perhaps the graph is useful... but some investors would look at the longer term

Problem with graphs is the data assumes that investors are intelligent and rational -

Cheers

The problem with that statement is that you assume you know what you are talking about.

best wishes

Paper Tiger.

PS> I would be more than happy to see 42B succeed, honest.

[nottiger]

quote:Originally posted by Paper Tiger


quote:Originally posted by nottiger
Hi, very nice graph but of course if you change it to a 3 month average trend line it would be generally up over the whole period with recent flattening and dip - If you want to invest very actively (in out in out) then perhaps the graph is useful... but some investors would look at the longer term

Problem with graphs is the data assumes that investors are intelligent and rational -

Cheers

The problem with that statement is that you assume you know what you are talking about.

best wishes

Paper Tiger.

PS> I would be more than happy to see 42B succeed, honest.


?? specifically?

[The Doctor]

Nottiger is right.Of course investors in this glorified 'Bangkok boiler room' stock could never qualify as being either intelligent or rational!....'secret recipe'....indeed![xx(]

[nottiger]

quote:Originally posted by MoSteph

Paper Tiger. High-quality bad manners - flawless.

Long term trading is dangerous for some stocks, and I sort of agree 42B is a dangerous stock. But, if you're trying to trade to make money, and Nottiger I do hope you are, surely trading where the highest return is would outweigh any silly-billy arguments about how is the correct way to trade. Moving averages are just another tool, and for many stocks a naff one at that (ie: mining, research or contracts based services). Also, where you got that 3 months figure from is beyond me. Anyway….
In 42B, if you managed to get in on all the ups, and out before the downs, you could have seen a return well above the 140% odd came between feb 04 and march 05.
So, I agree with PT: a bullocks statement.




Sure ............. moving averages are "just another tool" However they are perhaps more relevant to a long term view - If you are looking to short term then the sort of chart shown is more relevant

Of course any sort of chart is [u]historical</u> and describes the past, not neccessarily the future. A fair argument is that if you buy a stock trending up it is likely you have missed most of the share price growth.

Perahps a different approach is to find stocks where the chart looks flat or neutral but the underlying fundamentals of the companyare excellent ( future value the market is ignoring ) I think this is the CHH situation Graeme Hart saw?????

I think we could say Warren Buffet is more like ly to take this latter approach and many would say he is the greatest investor of all time?

[Phaedrus]

Nottiger,
You comment that "If you want to invest very actively (in out in out) then perhaps the graph is useful... but some investors would look at the longer term". Charts and technical analysis are useful regardless of your chosen timeframe and preferred frequency of trading. The same trend-following techniques can be used from day trading right through to very long-term "active investing". Over the period covered by the chart below, active short-term traders would have had 5 trades and would currently be out of this stock. (I haven't plotted all of these to avoid cluttering the chart and because I suspect that very few readers are interested in such active trading). The same chart would be used by medium-term traders, selling at point 2, buying again at point 3 and selling at point 4. After 2 trades in 2 years, they would currently be out of this stock. Long-term holders of FTB would be using the long-term trendline and would have sold at point 5 after having held this stock for 2 years. Same chart, same tools, same approach, different timeframes.

"Problem with graphs is the data assumes that investors are intelligent and rational" Nonsense. Data assumes nothing though we can base all sorts of assumptions on it if we wish. Are you familiar with the basic tenets of Dow theory? The most relevant one here is that prices move in trends. Trend-following relies on the "assumption" that an established trend will continue until it ends(!). Fairly safe ground there, yes?

"Moving averages.......are perhaps more relevant to a long term view" Not at all. Many short-term traders use very short period moving averages - perhaps with a period of just a few hours. The principle remains the same whether the moving average period is 4 hours or 4 years.

"A fair argument is that if you buy a stock trending up it is likely you have missed most of the share price growth." Nonsense. Trends can last for many years. FBU, for example, was in a long-term uptrend years ago and still is. It does not matter in the slightest if you miss out on the first small rise of a long-term uptrend.

"Perhaps a different approach is to find stocks where the chart looks flat or neutral but the underlying fundamentals of the company are excellent" So long as the chart stays flat, you are making no money at all from such an approach. Only when (or if) the market agrees with you will the stock price begin to trend upwards. Do you want to be "right" or make money?

I think we can agree that FTB is not a "Buffet stock". His ideas are therefore of little use or relevance to holders of FTB wondering when to sell.

http://home.ripway.com/2003-11/39768/FTB1126001.gif

[nottiger]

Thanks for your in depth answers and indeed you make some very good points[8D]

Obviously I see things a lttle different - perhaps more qualitatively?, but appreciate your knowledge is far greater than mine, and certainly the graph is certainly adding to the picture

Cheers

Simon

[leanmeanfightingmachine]

Fashions change, fashionable companies stay in fashion and (FTB is one of them) stick to the figures PT and out of marketing. What you are talking about really is brand image not fashion by the way. One follows certain small groups(fashion) and the other creates it (brand image).

FTB is doing well at creating cool products like the Fejoa Vodka. Making it trendy and keeping the brand image trendy is easy.

LMFM




quote:Originally posted by Paper Tiger

As a kiwi company 42below is something I look for when wandering amongst the drinks shelves, which is usually for me, at some airport or other. And wish them every success but.......

My problem with 42B is it may be the fashionable drink around the part of world at the moment, (I am assuming it is still in fashion, I have not noticed it in the web news headlines recently) but fashions change for no (to me) readily apparent reason, and it is not the cheapest bottle of flavoured vodka on the shelves. I know what feijoa is, but does most of the world?

[Snow Leopard]

Sticking to the figures, when will 42B have sufficient turnover to break even?
Will they then be able to generate enough profit with continued growth to justify the market capitalisation?

[leanmeanfightingmachine]

do not own FTB, i like your self wonder about how fast they can break even.

though i do feel they have the right brand image and products to move forward, unlike say RBD who are just wasting away and slash there marketing budget each year when they should be increasing it.

The figures i can not comment on but lond term i think they will get brought out as soon as they make the money and are a viable company. Similar to frucor.

But that is my view.

LMFM





quote:Originally posted by Paper Tiger

Sticking to the figures, when will 42B have sufficient turnover to break even?
Will they then be able to generate enough profit with continued growth to justify the market capitalisation?

[barnsley bill]

quote:Originally posted by leanmeanfightingmachine

do not own FTB, i like your self wonder about how fast they can break even.

though i do feel they have the right brand image and products to move forward, unlike say RBD who are just wasting away and slash there marketing budget each year when they should be increasing it.

The figures i can not comment on but lond term i think they will get brought out as soon as they make the money and are a viable company. Similar to frucor.

But that is my view.

LMFM





quote:Originally posted by Paper Tiger

Sticking to the figures, when will 42B have sufficient turnover to break even?
Will they then be able to generate enough profit with continued growth to justify the market capitalisation?



At last you guys seem to be getting it....
This is not a vehicle aimed at creating a Lion Nathan. Anyboby who has worked for a couple of the corner stone share holders will know that this is simply a vehicle for creating foundation investor wealth. From a viewpoint that does not encompass daytrader/ apprentice gordon geckos this is simply a vehicle for capital transfer from mugs to the empower boys...
Awaiting hysterical vitriol........:D

[Snow Leopard]

Hysterical vitriol....
Sounds like a good name for a drink :D:D

[barnsley bill]

perhaps one designed and marketed by a profitable company managed by the heirs of michael erceg

[Gryffyn]

So BB - are you saying that every company from start-up must be profitable? Seems like a very narrow perspective.

Certainly ignores the vast fortunes that have been made (by early/IPO investors and foundation holders) in other cases.

[barnsley bill]

No gryffyn I am not stating that and in fact for all the traders who bought in for more than the 2 cents that the founders invested I hope it goes well. worked for these turkeys in a previous life and see some similarities. This lemon will never make a profit. Now share traders are not necessarily interested in profit (other than on their trades)but I for one am very wary of the hype and believe the sp will continue to drop until they need to talk it up prior to next warrant time and then we will see a rapid exit strategy entered into by the empower boys after that possibly through a take overby a smirnoff type entity

[Gryffyn]

Ok - that is your position and fair enough. Let's wait and see then. At this stage most IPO buyers and those shortly after are doing ok aren't they.

[The Doctor]

quote:Originally posted by Gryffyn

So BB - are you saying that every company from start-up must be profitable? Seems like a very narrow perspective.

Certainly ignores the vast fortunes that have been made (by early/IPO investors and foundation holders) in other cases.



how did the 'start up' manage 35mil 'goodwill' ...was it the 'secret recipe' concocted in a garage...Barnum and Bailey stuff!:(

[Gryffyn]

Yawn. Take some medicice you bore.

[The Doctor]

quote:Originally posted by Gryffyn

Yawn. Take some medicice you bore.


..you and the other fools are the 'patients' or should that be ..'patience'...diagnosis...'severe delusions'...

[leanmeanfightingmachine]

going what you said i would say you don't own your own company, and you never will and you will work as employee for the rest of your life. i don't think you understand what FTB are doing.

LMFM



quote:Originally posted by bongo66


quote:Originally posted by Gryffyn

So BB - are you saying that every company from start-up must be profitable? Seems like a very narrow perspective.

Certainly ignores the vast fortunes that have been made (by early/IPO investors and foundation holders) in other cases.


I personally wouldnt start a company if it didnt make a profit from day one. If i knew the biz had a really good idea or a unique product though I might wait a reasonable amount of time for profit. Not as long as FTB though.

FTB reminds me of companies from the dot com era. Few of thousands of them made money and only a couple survive today as a result of zero profit.

It looks like smoke and mirrors to me.

B

[Snow Leopard]

quote:Originally posted by Paper Tiger

As a kiwi company 42below is something I look for when wandering amongst the drinks shelves, which is usually for me, at some airport or other. And wish them every success but.......

My problem with 42B is it may be the fashionable drink around the part of world at the moment, (I am assuming it is still in fashion, I have not noticed it in the web news headlines recently) but fashions change for no (to me) readily apparent reason, and it is not the cheapest bottle of flavoured vodka on the shelves. I know what feijoa is, but does most of the world?



quote:Also orginally posted by Paper Tiger

PS when I say feijoa I, of course, imply manuka honey (possibly my favourite) and kiwifruit.



quote:Then posted by KW

What you need to find out is how its going overseas, just because you think its funky in NZ doesnt mean its doing well anywhere else.
In Australia, it was all the rage when it was launched. Now the trendy thing is the new Absolut flavours (raspberry and vanilla).
My local bar stopped selling the Feijoa flavour because no-one ordered it as they had no idea what it tasted like as you cant buy feijoas here (and you never buy alcohol, especially expensive alcohol, if you dont know what it tastes like and if you will actually like it).
Personally I love the manuka honey flavour (and recently had 3 bottles of it in my freezer), but my personal preference for the product isnt going to make me go out and buy the company.


I am sure that any court of law would agree that this is a flagrant rip-off. Plagarism I think it is called.
So KW, Do you wnat to settle out of court now?
1 bottle from your freezer will do nicely [:p]
regards

Paper Tiger

[barnsley bill]

quote:Originally posted by cujodog

This thread has been thrashed to death and should be closed. Can a moderator please take care of this.


brilliant.................. Do you hold FTB by any chance

[Snow Leopard]

quote:Originally posted by cujodog

This thread has been thrashed to death and should be closed. Can a moderator please take care of this.

This poster (cujodog, not me) has become over opinionated and should be banned. Can a moderator please take care of this.

[Caesius]

Received the H/Y report...$10 bucks off south - why not 42 Below?

[StainlessSteelRat]

SP back at IPO level - it must be time for them to announce a new product line. 42 Below Canned (Hot) Air, anyone? :D

[Placebo]

The h/y report suggests they have some products in the pipeline, including a rum.

I have to say it's fairly uninspiring as reports go. The earnings seem to be plateauing and still the losses continue. One would hope that the distribution agreements they now have in place will start to pay off in the next half year.

Otherwise I'm starting to lose the faith!

[The Doctor]

surely 'new' products will just be another drain on capital....ftb..heading south..

[Gryffyn]

quack quack

[Phaedrus]

http://h1.ripway.com/Phaedrus/FTB1215001.gif

[marinesalvor]

I bought a few more bottles yesterday - nice xmas gifts

[lewinsky]

Wish their advertising would rub off on the share price.

http://www.42below.com/callcentre/

[Snow Leopard]

Is it really sensible for a cash burner like 42B to spend $1.6m investing in Charlie's?

I suppose you can spice up your xmas OJ with kiwi flavoured vodka.


quote:
CHA
21/12/2005
GENERAL

REL: 1331 HRS Charlie's Group Limited

GENERAL: CHA: 42 Below Investment Keeps Charlie's in High Spirits

Charlie's Group Limited (CHA) announced today that 42 Below Limited (FTB) had
taken a 4.7% stake in Charlie's, following the recent announcement that
Charlie's had acquired Phoenix Organics Limited.

Charlie's CEO, Stefan Lepionka said "he was delighted to welcome 42 Below on
board as an investor". "The companies have many similarities; New Zealand
owned, high growth, offering premium brands". Mr Lepionka noted "the
companies have a complete and complementary set of distribution channels,
customers and products and discussions on utilising these are encouraging and
ongoing"

42 Below CEO Geoff Ross noted "We are very impressed that Charlie's has
purchased the premium cafe beverage operator Phoenix Organics. This is an
important move for our industry". Mr Ross said.

"No longer do you only go to a bar for an alcoholic drink and only to a cafe
for a juice. Consumers expect a full beverage offering in all outlets - both
alcoholic and non alcoholic." Charlie's coverage of cafe's and the route
trade through the Phoenix Organics acquisition is attractive to us and a lot
of juice is sold through restaurants and bars - not only in a 42 Below
cocktail." We wish Charlie's and Phoenix Organics well."

-ends-

FTB has subscribed for 12,621,810 ordinary shares in CHA for $1,632,000, on
conversion of the equity loan previously announced to the market.
End CA:00125576 For:CHA Type:GENERAL Time:2005-12-21:13:31:52

[Snow Leopard]

"as previously announced"


quote:
CHA
01/12/2005
GENERAL

REL: 1626 HRS Charlie's Group Limited

GENERAL: CHA: Charlie's in strong position to drive growth strategy

At yesterday's annual meeting of shareholders the company outlined its
strategy for the coming months, including plans to continue Charlie's strong
growth through appropriate acquisition opportunities.
Charlie's currently has in excess of $5.5m cash available for these purposes,
and no bank debt. To provide additional capital flexibility, Charlie's Group
has also agreed terms for a $1.6m equity loan facility from a private
investor, whereby an additional $1.6m is immediately available to fund an
appropriate acquisition. Subject to any necessary approvals, the equity loan
is convertible into ordinary shares in Charlie's at a price of 12.93 cents
per share, being a 10% discount to the current average market price of
Charlie's shares.
Contact:
Roger Gower
Chairman
Tel: (09) 358-5765
End CA:00124634 For:CHA Type:GENERAL Time:2005-12-01:16:26:51

[dirty]

ellis must be drinking 42b instead of the party pills now

[The Doctor]

[xx(]this gets funnier by the minute...2 'dud's' with Bangkok boiler room' credentials ,and a familiar 'launch pad' get 'chummy'....42b ,decides it is an investment vehicle to prop Charlies ...2 bleeders ,that will not be on the bourse within 5 yrs...GUARANTEED![xx(][xx(]

[icehot]

It's back to 1987, folks.

Watch as Charlie then buy 5% of FTB.

These guys must be in their 30's and thibk that this is all new.

[marinesalvor]

personally i'd have bought Phoenix and not bothered with the Charlies bit

[Gryffyn]

quote:Originally posted by absolut-advance


quote:Originally posted by lewinsky

Wish their advertising would rub off on the share price.

http://www.42below.com/callcentre/


Haha funny ad that is


f'in brilliant as always.

[marinesalvor]

nice little bit of pre-christmas buying - must be flow on effect from the bottles I bought

[Placebo]

Yes it is nice. Particularly since everything else I own is taking a f****g hammering.

Goddammit!:(

[marinesalvor]

Placebo - in that case I find it helps to open a bottle of FTB

[marinesalvor]

last year they had an announcment of sales on 20/1/06 - wonder if they will do so soon

[Bling_Bling]

Trends come and go.

I see Absolute has a number of flavoured vodka and very competitively priced.

[barnsley bill]

dont rely on it if sales don't show the usual meteoric growth

[marinesalvor]

true - thats what I would be concerned about!

[The Doctor]

bought a bottle of Absolute the other day..$29.95....next shelf 42b..same volume $33.95....joketime!everyday prices!Expect the 42b s/p to crash this year...all the hype and 'good news' has been exhausted ...deliver or die!

[marinesalvor]

thanks Doc - always appreciate calm, reasoned amd incredibly well researched analysis

[marinesalvor]

I guess you miss the point of branding, consumer choice, positioning, price premiums etc

why on earth should all vodka be price comparable?

Why should a new New Zealand vodka have to be cheaper than its competition?

If the price did crash - I would be hoovering up a few shares...

sure theres downside for the co, but theres a heap of upside too

[The Doctor]

quote:Originally posted by marinesalvor

I guess you miss the point of branding, consumer choice, positioning, price premiums etc

why on earth should all vodka be price comparable?

Why should a new New Zealand vodka have to be cheaper than its competition?

If the price did crash - I would be hoovering up a few shares...

sure theres downside for the co, but theres a heap of upside too


1)liqour retailing has price points.
2)it doesn't have to be...BUT Absolut has a premium profile,is established and successfull ,has achieved international brand awareness.
3)get a BIG HOOVER!
4)this 'upside' ...is the premise,the promise this whole company has 'milked' for how long now?..NO USP,NO FUTURE.

[marinesalvor]

and you dot believe in creating new price points? or that there is space for new products/brands in a market niche?

I guess you are an accountant

[The Doctor]

neither this share nor its 'sister'...CHA...deserve to be listed on the main board of a credible stock exchange..period.

[marinesalvor]

and since when was NZX a credible stock exchange??

[Bob C]

I see David McEwan is suggesting in this months Metro magazine that now is a good time to "top up" with FTB. I would think this is the exact market (ie Metro readers) the company is aiming for?

Bob C

Disc. Hold FTB

[The Doctor]

quote:Originally posted by marinesalvor

and since when was NZX a credible stock exchange??



...a clean ...K.O!.........I need a drink!

[Snow Leopard]

click here (http://www.stuff.co.nz/stuff/0,2106,3556423a10,00.html) for article about South Gin advertising in trouble, with a typical Ross quote at the end.

[Bob C]

Looks like well orchestrated publicity to me!

[Placebo]

Bugger! I was hoping it was The Doctor's obituary[}:)]

[marinesalvor]

hey when are these Q4 figures due out??

[CJ]

quote:Originally posted by Paper Tiger

click here (http://www.stuff.co.nz/stuff/0,2106,3556423a10,00.html) for article about South Gin advertising in trouble, with a typical Ross quote at the end.


Not quite orchestrated by they do make their ads to be provocative on purposes to try and get additional free advertising and it appeals to the target market.

Lets face it, this is a marketing company rather than an alcohol company. (no one would pay that much for an alcohol company that is losing money!!

[Snow Leopard]

The article was apparently a press release from FTB which was quoted verbatim, and unattributed, by several news[paper] websites.
So full marks on the marketing.

As anyone drunk the gin? And is it worth the price? DO they sell much?
Gin is one of the few forms of alcohol that I do not like, so I have not done the "research" on this.

[marinesalvor]

I dont drink Gin myself - but have heard South is actually pretty good

[The GrandMaster]

Don't drink Gin either, but my wife does and she swears by it - best Gin around according to her.

[spector]

this turned up in my email today

www.42below.com/flashad/hero/

pretty funny, but probably not safe to play at work for some people. :)

[marinesalvor]

am still concerned about the lack of q3 sales figures

[barnsley bill]

very funny ad................

[slam]

quote:Originally posted by spector

this turned up in my email today

www.42below.com/flashad/hero/

pretty funny, but probably not safe to play at work for some people. :)


LOL, love it spector:D

[spector]

quote:Originally posted by marinesalvor

am still concerned about the lack of q3 sales figures


I'd just give them a call and ask bro. Geoff Ross puts his number on the bottom of all their releases to the market with a "for more information please call". Well, you want more information so take him up on his offer - the number is 021 424219, or email geoff@42below.com

[The Doctor]

THE 3Q figures are probably being devised right now...usual padding ,no doubt-[:o)] including inventory as 'sales'...and finding a positive deflection for the weak performance in light of the bullish projections...maybe just keep everybody laughing at 'clever' ads and promotions that attract 'free' publicity....is the gin made from G.R's 'secret recipe'...as well?[xx(]

[barnsley bill]

no "good news" for over a month now........

[blackcap]

quote:Originally posted by barnsley bill

no "good news" for over a month now........

Was once a beleiver! now..................

What is going on with this stock! hmmmmmmmmmmm

[The Doctor]

why not a 'merger' with CHA....a lemon and an 'orange'....should keep the 'squeeze' on s/holders for another 18mth's!

[marinesalvor]

have signalled my concern before that they couldnt produce a 3Q sales result...

[marinesalvor]

420 seems to be out there and selling - hmmm - why no announcements??

[Bob C]

100,000 at $0.56 just appeared on the BID. Maybe the announcement is on its way.....?

Bob C

Disc. Hold FTB

[marinesalvor]

interesting

[marinesalvor]

of course it could be just the company or their broker

[Bob C]

Interesting that it disappeared just before the market opened? Or slipped down to $0.54?

[marinesalvor]

funny that - not that it hasnt happened before!

[marinesalvor]

wow - the sales activity with the share is just getting too wild... a full 600 shares changing hands

[barnsley bill]

u just poked somebody, 50 k just moved

[marinesalvor]

its the CEOs mum buying some

[CJ]

quote:Originally posted by marinesalvor

its the CEOs mum buying some


You sure it wasn't her selling??

[marinesalvor]

probably - am sure he'd tell mum about case sales if not the rest of us

[barnsley bill]

chairman has been busy with pls today

[Footsie]

when are they ever going to make money,

Is it supposed to be this year or next?

at 80m market cap im suprised no broker actually covers them.

The need to produce a ready mix with CHA to kick things along.

[marinesalvor]

Their reps were pushing 420 heavily last week - having an internal competition on volume

[marinesalvor]

Footsie - who knows - I still wonder why they arent talking about 3Q sales

[The Doctor]

quote:Originally posted by marinesalvor

Footsie - who knows - I still wonder why they arent talking about 3Q sales





...I'M sure you ....do!![xx(]

[marinesalvor]

hehe Doc - maybe you should go out and buy a few bottles - even if you cant brng yourself to buy the shares

[Footsie]

Marine - correct me if i am wrong, but are they due to make money 1st qtr 06/07 FY?

And just email Geoff Ross about the 3rd qtr give him the hurry up

Price looks pretty sick at the moment. No news I guess is the reason

[marinesalvor]

Footsie - nearly anniversary of FTBs biggest sp run based on back of good 3Q sales and in anticipation of a good fy

[Footsie]

Looks like FTB is heading sub 50c.

Plenty on the offer.

Personally I think this is good news.
FTB is nz's fastest growing company and revenue is increasing every year.

Eventually they will turn a profit. Once they start making money, every man and his dog will want in and it will probably trade on a p/e of 30x depending on the prevailing market.
The punters love stocks like this - plus it is also a corporate play, long term.

maiden profit march 2007 - token say $800k
then 2008. $5m profit. EPS 3.4c p/e 30x s/p $1.00

you might say hey thats 2 years away, BUT, where else are you going to get 100% gain in 2 years?


so if I can buy at 50c or below i'm in
sub 40c and its time to load up !

Who agrees with me. If not why?

[The Doctor]

you're one deluded puppy ...footsie....this coy will never turn a real profit.Global liquor companies can squash it whenever they choose...it is all based on 'spin',has no usp...over hyped and over priced and as I have said ...is a disgrace to the NZX.

[Footsie]

Doc

If i knew you i'd definitely be having a bet over whether they will make money

Thing is Doc, they have done everything they said they would do in the prospectus, and some. Essentially they are meeting forecasts.
so why knock them? If its all spin why are they NZ's fastest growing company?

Time will tell i guess. march 06 result will give a good indication to how close they are to making money

[barnsley bill]

quote:Originally posted by Footsie

Doc

If i knew you i'd definitely be having a bet over whether they will make money

Thing is Doc, they have done everything they said they would do in the prospectus, and some. Essentially they are meeting forecasts.
so why knock them? If its all spin why are they NZ's fastest growing company?

Time will tell i guess. march 06 result will give a good indication to how close they are to making money

footsie, your enthusiasm is to be admired.
However...
1. long time between spin, nearly two months since the last propaganda
2. the principals have history of making money.......... for themselves.
3. they are still spending more per bottle than they recieve.

the only thing positive is the shrinking nz dollar

[sniper]

At one stage "Flying Pig' was NZ's fastest growing company - it went broke from cash burn.

Fast does not = good necessarily.

The principals have made their money selling down their stakes - it's on to the next thing, folks.

[barnsley bill]

quote:Originally posted by sniper


At one stage "Flying Pig' was NZ's fastest growing company - it went broke from cash burn.

Fast does not = good necessarily.

The principals have made their money selling down their stakes - it's on to the next thing, folks.


when these boys listed a newspaper columnist suggested that the share price should be the offer price minus the company name. That number would still realise a massive profit for the pre float share holders..
In this companies case no news is bad news.

[marinesalvor]

Am sure that Geoff and his crew are reading these posts - am sure there will be some "spin" soon!

[marinesalvor]

I presume they have been wanting to give a success story around 420 and its taking a while!

[marinesalvor]

if ever

[Placebo]

Keep the faith, people, keep the faith

[marinesalvor]

am trying - maybe another drink will help

[Footsie]

come in spinner !

[Nevl]

Doen't mention 42 at all but of interest in the fact that everyone else is trying to play the game too.

Neutral i think for 42b

http://www.iht.com/articles/2006/02/24/business/wbvodka.php

disc: hold none

[The Doctor]

interesting ...'people are looking for geographical authenticity in premium products'....well GR ex adman,power salesman...made 42b from a 'secret recipe' in his garage'!...would you believe it?apparantly ...there's more than one born...every minute'!

[sniper]

quote:Originally posted by Nevl

Doen't mention 42 at all but of interest in the fact that everyone else is trying to play the game too.

Neutral i think for 42b

http://www.iht.com/articles/2006/02/24/business/wbvodka.php

disc: hold none


Negative for FTB.

Grey Goose was a oncer - like Packer selling Nine Network to Bond. FTB was never going to make real money - the idea was to build a brand and then flick it to one of the majors for a Grey Goose type price. It's obvious that others had the same idea.

Unlike Tariko who can afford cash-burn to get there, FTB is sliding towards the next capital raising.

[The Doctor]

CAN NEARLY GUARANTEE...will 'merge' with CHA...with a broad based 'drink's' portfolio that provides 'synergies' in a number of areas...blah.blah,blah[:o)][xx(]..2 dud's are better than one'!

[Footsie]

I Think CHA is better value, phoenix drinks adds a lot,

plus their t/o is probably 25-30m now.

j/v perhaps, merger doubt it

[Nevl]

sniper i agree with what you say the reason i called neutral was that they are selling into a riing market. Hopefully offsetting the negative competition. Also on the news on Friday or Sat night 42 are sponsering a reality TV show based on the web about 2 nightclubs in Miami with 42B being the signature drink. Maybe they have the marketing samrts to pull it off. Will be watching with interest.
As you say it could be fleeting after all who remembers Absolute! Made a fortune with a well designed bottle and edgy marketing.

[Mr_Market]

Vodka ad goes down badly with Russian women
26 February 2006
By TONY WALL

A liquor company is offering a Russian bride as first prize in a vodka promotion, a gimmick Russian women in New Zealand say is offensive.

The competition offers $8000 or a return trip to Moscow with spending money, to join a "find-a-bride" tour. The promotional material includes an image of a blonde scrubbing a floor, and the words: "Let me tell you, those Russian women are awesome, they don't care if you watch cricket on Valentine's Day, hell they don't even care if you're short and fat. It's almost too good to be true."

But statistics show that Russian women are not flocking to look after fat, lazy Kiwi husbands. In the last financial year, only 17 Russian women were granted entry to New Zealand under the partnership visa policy.

The company offering the bridal trip, 42 Below, started the campaign for its Stil vodka in stores and by email yesterday.

42 Below is known for its stunts aimed at gaining publicity.

Last year, a New York gay bar owner took umbrage at the "stereotypical" way the company portrayed homosexuals in advertising. Company president James Dale replied with an expletive-laden tirade which ended up in the gossip columns.

The company recorded a $2.7 million loss in the six months to last September and market analysts say its shares are a "bit of a punt" for investors.

Chief executive Geoff Ross said the Russian campaign might be seen as offensive, but it was really "a bit of fun". Stil vodka was aimed at "classic Kiwi blokes, pub drinkers" who would love to meet "hot" Russian women on bridal tour websites such as www. loveme. com.

"For the single Kiwi bloke who might not be an All Black or very good looking, this is a chance to get hooked up with somebody pretty hot," said Ross.

The image of the woman scrubbing a floor was tongue in cheek, he said.

"The ideal woman for the Kiwi bloke is one who keeps him fed and looked after all day and meets all his needs."

But Russian women contacted by the Sunday Star-Times said the idea of Russian women desperate to come to New Zealand and look after overweight, idle husbands was wrong.

"Most Russian women I know are highly educated, with university degrees," said Auckland consultant Maria Gorokhova.

Most of the Russian women on singles websites - one has more than 400 Russian women wanting to find Kiwi partners - are professionals, including doctors, lawyers and economists.

Gorokhova said offering a bride in a competition was degrading to women. "It's treating women like some kind of toy, or trophy."

Auckland businesswoman Olga Essina said most Russian women were better educated than Kiwi men, and the image of the woman cleaning the floor was offensive.

Russian women were house proud, but they would not put up with cooking and cleaning for long.

"She would quickly realise she was being used."

Essina said a lot of Russian women who came here with dreams of falling in love and having a better life were disappointed, as men exaggerated their worth.

"Most of it is based on lies - they lie about property ownership and a lot of things."

Ross said he did not know how immigration matters would be handled for the competition winner. "We leave all that to the bridal tour organisers. They say it's easily do-able so we're taking their word."

The Immigration Service said the marriage of a foreigner to a New Zealand resident did not automatically give the foreigner residence in this country.

"The department's policy requires that applicants for residence must provide sufficient evidence to satisfy an immigration officer they have been living together for 12 months or more, in a partnership that is genuine and stable, with a New Zealand citizen or resident," a spokesman said.

[spector]

"Essina said a lot of Russian women who came here with dreams of falling in love and having a better life were disappointed, as men exaggerated their worth."

Brilliant!

[marinesalvor]

you got to hand it to these guys if you think any publicity is good publicity

[The Doctor]

yes they are well practiced at this 'contrived controvosy'type publicity.....but I think shareholders would prefer to see a healthy balance sheet....will never make money...but at least you've had FUN' haven't you/they?[:p]

[marinesalvor]

yep - I have loved the ads - ever since the hobbit one

[barnsley bill]

uh oh.... publicity grabs not weaving the usual magic on the sp anymore.
www.stilvodka.co.nz

[marinesalvor]

only good case sales progress and successful launch of 420 will help the sp

[barnsley bill]

quote:Originally posted by marinesalvor

only good case sales progress and successful launch of 420 will help the sp


you would think they would have spun some news about 420 and or good case sales by now............ nearly two months since last announcement.

[marinesalvor]

its weird - last Jan a very generalistic message on increased sales was a tonic for the sp - maybe GR is on holiday??

[Placebo]

Why not drop the "Chief Vodka Bloke" a line and ask him: geoff@42below.co.nz; or call him on 021 424 219.

[The Doctor]

he's been on 'holiday' since this 'puppy' floated...maybe he's got that 'sinking' feeling...y not ring him and find out watzup!?

[marinesalvor]

I dont ring CEOs - they will just lie

[The Doctor]

quote:Originally posted by marinesalvor

I dont ring CEOs - they will just lie


how inspiring...investing in a company where you do not trust the C.E.O![V]

[marinesalvor]

any CEO!

[barnsley bill]

normal service resumes..
nice fluffy spin with no numbers, lots of blue sky, take on the world, can do kiwi attitude and an immediate rise in sp....

http://www.nzx.com/market/market_announcements/by_company?id=128086

[The Doctor]

'on target for sales of $15mil'...so what!$1.70 exp for a $1 of revenue?The RTD MARKET IN NZ IS SATURATED...42b offerring will get lost unless they can afford to supply liquor outlets with fridges...FACT!...water,rum,gin,....bottled dreams and spin...no hope!

[MSL]

quote:Originally posted by marinesalvor

I dont ring CEOs - they will just lie


LOL....well Marine, you can ring me anytime and I won't lie to you. :-)

[marinesalvor]

welcome Peter - great to have another mariner on board!

[KJ]

quote:Originally posted by barnsley bill

normal service resumes..
nice fluffy spin with no numbers, lots of blue sky, take on the world, can do kiwi attitude and an immediate rise in sp....

http://www.nzx.com/market/market_announcements/by_company?id=128086


I thought that they did give numbers.

[Placebo]

Not this time. Yesterday was not a market announcement just a media release, which incidentally looked like it had been written by RG's six-year-old with their own crayon. Unwelcome visitations by the Grocer's Apostrophe; lack of punctuation, overuse of capitals.... etc etc.

If that sort to crap was given to me I'd throw it back at the writer and say "must do better". Gives the impression of a company on a shoestring...

[KJ]

They are not due to make a HY or FY announcement are they?
They have said that there is no change to the projections that they made in September.

[marinesalvor]

there should be end Dec case sales numbers KJ

[barnsley bill]

quote:Originally posted by marinesalvor

there should be end Dec case sales numbers KJ


If they were going to be positive we would have seen them by nowas we did in previous years..

[KJ]

Hey...50,000 bottles of water sold and they have still got some money
left in the bank..not all bad!:D

[Bobby_Fischer]

Yesterday's announcement stated net assets at 31/01/06 to be $22 M. According to the HY report, net assets at 30/09/05 were $9.8 M. Capital raised from exercise of warrants was $10.8 M. Now, $10.8 M + $ 9.8 M = $20.6 M, implying INCOME of $1 M, even allowing for some "flattery" through rounding. And no, they didn't make that much interest in 3 months. Don't recall mention of any other capital being raised, so what am I missing?

Perhaps they didn't bother issuing quarterly case sales figures because they are currently indifferent to what the market thinks (having all the capital they require for the foreseeable, and too busy trying to run the business)?

Why the (apparent) disappointment that their results are still expected to be in line with projections?

[marinesalvor]

Because they are always happy to tell us good news - but dont often mention downside

[Bobby_Fischer]

Well, they gave out all the good news in advance, so to speak, in order to drum up support from warrant holders. They have only managed to confirm the earlier good news - no change from projections given in September, but that projection was for 70% year-on-year growth in case sales. What's wrong with that? Nothing like the growth from the previous year, admittedly, but it was inevitable that growth had to slow.

[KJ]

Bobby F-we do not know from this what their Current liabilities are.I think that they have no bank debts but their current liabilities will have grown as the sales increase-trade creditors.

[Bobby_Fischer]

KJ - I agree, but their statement uses the term "net assets" - I take this to mean net of all liabilities.

[KJ]

BF-yes,I noticed that.End of OCT refers to "current assets" $21.3m and more recently they refer to "nett assets"-does not help.

However,in Sept they projected sales of $15.5m,said the same thing when announcing HY results,and say the same thing now,1 month out from year end.

[Bobby_Fischer]

KJ - HY report lists non-current assets of $1.8 M, implying net assets around $23 M at end Oct.

If they were holding foreign currency denominated assets then the depreciation of the NZD might be the explanation. Should certainly help the path to profitability, anyway.

[CJ]

quote:Originally posted by Bobby_Fischer

Yesterday's announcement stated net assets at 31/01/06 to be $22 M. According to the HY report, net assets at 30/09/05 were $9.8 M. Capital raised from exercise of warrants was $10.8 M. Now, $10.8 M + $ 9.8 M = $20.6 M, implying INCOME of $1 M, even allowing for some "flattery" through rounding. And no, they didn't make that much interest in 3 months. Don't recall mention of any other capital being raised, so what am I missing?

Maybe they have increased goodwill and the value of brands ;)

Also read they they are releasing a Rum and a Rum RTD with a vodka RTD to follow.

IF they lilmit these last two to NZ and possibly asutralia, they could do well, If they launch to the world, it will just be an even bigger drag on their marketing budget.

Have they named their new Rum yet?

[The Doctor]

you can guarantee brand valuations to be inflated yr by yr.As for RTD'S-- most likely produced under contract for them by Independent Liquor who 'own' that sector.As I said unless you can afford to supply outlets with fridges to display your products...in this over crowded mkt ....you will not make any money.Mind you I guess this 'excercise' is not really about making minority s/holders money anyway.

[barnsley bill]

quote:Originally posted by The Doctor

you can guarantee brand valuations to be inflated yr by yr.As for RTD'S-- most likely produced under contract for them by Independent Liquor who 'own' that sector.As I said unless you can afford to supply outlets with fridges to display your products...in this over crowded mkt ....you will not make any money.Mind you I guess this 'excercise' is not really about making minority s/holders money anyway.


your comment about independent liquor raises an intesting question.. Who makes the vodka for them and where....

[The Doctor]

odds on it will be Independent Liquor in Papakura..the late M.Erceg's coy that puts R.T.D'S on the shelves- from conception in a matter of week's.7-8 yrs ago they produced a 'White Wolf' vodka..in a similar bottle to 42 below...Ross has appropriated a little bit here and a little bit there to come up with this product ...even the name!45 South Whiskey was around years ago.

[Sideshow Bob]

Herald article today:

http://www.nzherald.co.nz/section/story.cfm?c_id=3&ObjectID=10370988

The opening line:

'It is the most hotly debated company on the Share Trader stockmarket gossip website, ahead of sharemarket giants Telecom, Carter Holt Harvey and Fletcher Building.'


Hmmmm really! I think the 645 pages of NZO/NOG discussion/mud-slinging/childish name-calling would say otherwise!!

[Gryffyn]

True!

[KJ]

quote:Originally posted by The Doctor

odds on it will be Independent Liquor in Papakura..the late M.Erceg's coy that puts R.T.D'S on the shelves- from conception in a matter of week's.7-8 yrs ago they produced a 'White Wolf' vodka..in a similar bottle to 42 below...Ross has appropriated a little bit here and a little bit there to come up with this product ...even the name!45 South Whiskey was around years ago.


Contract Bottling Co-a Division of NZ Wines & Spirits Ltd has exclusive rights to manufacture and bottle.

[spector]

With trademe selling for 700 mill, how does that reflect on companies like 42? No bricks and morter, a revenue stream that is well under what the company was valued at etc... no real point of difference from ebay you could argue... and yet it sells for 700 mill.

Love to here you're thought on this one.

[barnsley bill]

trademe is a very good fit with fairfax. all the big aussie media companies are running as fast as they can to snap up content providers.

as for ftb v trademe.
trademe is a private company with real profit, no spin, no blue skies poorly written nzx statements, run by a family with a platinum reputation.
Anybody with some cash can make and sell booze, but there is ONLY ONE TRADEME
Personally I am sad this online jewel has been snapped up by the gnome kirk for his aussie paymasters. Would have been nice to see it remain kiwi owned.
But hats of to Sam Morgan. This would have to be the biggest kiwi success story for many years.

[Placebo]

Well BB, by the same token anyone with cash can set up a website that provides a venue for people to trade. The key thing is that Trademe grew exponentially and became the dominant player. There are other NZ-based sites that offer buy and sell transactions, but Trademe has achieved cut-through above them all. The question is why (and I would imagine it will be the stuff of commerce degree papers for decades to come).

From my perspective the key to its success is not that it was particularly innovative or new in its business model, but that it could achieve a profile to make it dominant. They also had the benefit of an open paddock in terms of competition -- there was no already-established dominant player who could defend their patch and crush the impudent newcomer.

Which is the difference with FTB. It is selling an established product into a mature market (the exception being its `premium water'), and having to battle corporate heavyweights and established brands to do so.


I back FTB for, I imagine, much the same reason as those who backed Morgan have been rewarded. They like the concept, they have faith that it can work, and the rewards for success are potentially massive for a relatively small risk exposure.

[leanmeanfightingmachine]

there are alot of trade me type sites in different indusrties all over the world.

I think there is a ticket one.

I think there is even one where you trade antiques.

Do many other people know of the one is sweden?

LMFM



quote:Originally posted by spector

With trademe selling for 700 mill, how does that reflect on companies like 42? No bricks and morter, a revenue stream that is well under what the company was valued at etc... no real point of difference from ebay you could argue... and yet it sells for 700 mill.

Love to here you're thought on this one.

[spector]

TRADEME is indeed a private company that turns a good profit. But the price paid for TRADEME is disproportionate to the profit they are currently making (27 times this years EBITDA). Its future growth is also hampered by the diffaculty in taking it offshore to countries where EBAY has a stranglehold. And yet Fairfax values the company at 700 mill. If TRADEME was listing on the stock exchange at 700 mill i'm sure many people would say that 'the figures don't stack up' and they'd have a good arguement. But the company still sold for 700 mill.

The only reason I bring this up is because TRADEME was only the 4th fastest growing company in New Zealand last year. The fastest was FTB. In fact FTB's growth rate was almost double that of TRADEME. And TRADEME sold for 700 mill.

[spector]

I also agree with BB, it's a shame that a great company like TRADEME has been bought out by an overseas company. It would have been great if TRADEME had gone public and all kiwis would have then been able to share in it's future growth. But I think in reality, if Sam had listed, then he would have got the same detractors that FTB currently has giving him grief about how an online company isn't worth 700 Mill. Sam did the right thing and I wish him all the best.

[marinesalvor]

very true spector - am sure the doc would have told us how crooked Sam was, how he was partying on our money etc

[leanmeanfightingmachine]

i see the boys at poors have down rated fairfax to negative.

heck....and the opening selling price is at $350 a share on ASX.

this will be interesting.

Any thoughts?

LMFM



quote:Originally posted by marinesalvor

very true spector - am sure the doc would have told us how crooked Sam was, how he was partying on our money etc

[barnsley bill]

quote:Originally posted by spector

TRADEME is indeed a private company that turns a good profit. But the price paid for TRADEME is disproportionate to the profit they are currently making (27 times this years EBITDA). Its future growth is also hampered by the diffaculty in taking it offshore to countries where EBAY has a stranglehold. And yet Fairfax values the company at 700 mill. If TRADEME was listing on the stock exchange at 700 mill i'm sure many people would say that 'the figures don't stack up' and they'd have a good arguement. But the company still sold for 700 mill.

The only reason I bring this up is because TRADEME was only the 4th fastest growing company in New Zealand last year. The fastest was FTB. In fact FTB's growth rate was almost double that of TRADEME. And TRADEME sold for 700 mill.


very clever, tell me what would 27 times ebitda be for ftb.

[spector]

No idea what the current EBITA for FTB is, won't know till the end of year comes out. But there's bound to be someone online who can extrapolate it from last years EBITDA for us.

Not sure where your coming from with "very clever"? Clever that Sam sold the company? Clever that Sam didn't list? Or clever that I'm using TRADEME as an example of valuing a business outside of EBITDA?

[MeNoBatty]

Forecast EBITDA for FTB for 2006 is negative $3.68m. TradeMe positive $26m. No comparison.

Thats the first time i have ever heard anyone try and justify a valuaton based on the Deloitte Fast 50. Very novel, but sadly not applicable. TelstraSaturn won the honors in 2001. Where are they now?

[spector]

Point taken MNB. But let's say that Fairfax want to branch TRADEME out of NZ and take it into Australia, or Singapore or Hong Kong. Presumably in the short term their investment could cost more then the profit TRADEME returns so their EBITDA could go into the negative as well. If that's the case would TRADEME then be worth less than 700mil or more?

My actual argument is that in some cases relying on EBITDA to value a company is meaningless.

[barnsley bill]

agreed you should look past the deloitte fast 50 and ebitda.
Trademe is an internet behemoth in NZ,you would struggle to find any comparable internet site globally that so dominates page visits in its home market.
this is about advertising revenue first and auction revenue second.
They top car classifieds and real estate, two major sources of revenue for newspapers. Get in or die would have been a factor for the gnome kirk

[The Doctor]

T/ME...is forecast to deliver profit around $45 mil next yr..and contingent payment of $50 mil more for Sam AND COY.if targets are met.(price calc 15/earnings)This coy never advertised and is an example of a'new' and developing sector mushrooming with big potential.FTBelow is the cruel joke of an adman spinning a web that will only catch the gullible...there is no comparison with the dominant and profitable TM business which as mentioned did not have an incumbent market leader to launch a full frontal assault...O.J,water,vodka...are all 'passe' if you cannot either achieve a 'critical mass' in production and distribution or have a unique selling proposition.

[spector]

So if TRADEME delivers on their forecast profit of $45 million in the next year then Sam will get paid another $50 million? Not sure what calculator your using Doc but mine says that’s a nett loss of $5 million dollars.

[spector]

And once again you fall back into repeating your twin mantras of “FTBelow is the cruel joke of an adman spinning a web that will only catch the gullible” and that 42 is going to get taken out by “an incumbent market leader launching a full frontal assault”. Doc, you’ve been saying this stuff over and over for the last two years!

Exactly when is Geoff Ross going to run off with all our money? Because he seems to be taking his time about it, If I was him I would have done it when the share price was higher.

And who is the incumbent market leader brand that’s going to destroy 42 with a full frontal assault? This time last year 42 below already owned 20% of the total NZ vodka market – which includes Absolut, Smirnoff, Stoly, Vladivar, Grey Goose, and about 30 other vodkas. By now they probably own more. When will Absolut decide that it’s time to crush 42? In two years time when 42 owns 50% of the market, or 60%?

When 42 announced in it’s 2005 end of year report that it had sold a million bottles of vodka/gin that year do you think they made it up Doc?

Jeepers, I don’t mind someone having a different opinion to mine – but it’s silly to try and argue a point without having facts to back up your argument.

[Bobby_Fischer]

quote:Originally posted by spector


Jeepers, I don�t mind someone having a different opinion to mine � but it�s silly to try and argue a point without having facts to back up your argument.



Exactly right. The_Doctor Phd (rhetoric and hyperbole).

[The Doctor]

'...rhetoric and hyperbole'..sound's like GR and a 42b press release...Coy's are meant to make money...when will this happen..42 keeps trumpeting new products!...why?...20% of the NZ vodka mkt...yeah right![:o)]Int liqour coy's are not concerned about this 'flea'...will burn itself out...guaranteed![xx(]Talk about the 'core' business ,they're even investing 'your' money for you in other coy's now![:0]....has all the Hallmark's' of an 80's 'creation'...and the same fate awaits.[V]

[Placebo]

Spec you make some good points but 20% of NZ vodka market is pretty small potatoes. If they had 20% of US vodka market, then the Smirnoffs would definitely take notice.

At the moment FTB is just part of the pack, which is fine. They are more swimming than sinking. I'd like to see it move up the ladder a little more, which I think they can do.

At the moment their strategy reminds me of the early days of Lotto; a huge launch and excitement, then a bit of a lull, followed by a period when they rolled out a succession of new products to provide their revenue growth.

I'd like to see FTB getting results in their core market (vodka and gin) rather than trying to diversify too early.

[spector]

agreed.

[The Doctor]

product diversification is a 'diversion' away from the core product ,and provides a plausible and handy explanation for increasing expenses not matched by revenue.The adman/persuader will tell you ...his job is to 'distinguish' a product ,give it a unique character....baked beans or vodka...its all the same to them.I'm sure the 'boy's' will write a book about their experience/experiment one day...[B)][8D]

[MSL]

I generally agree with the above but in saying that there maybe drivers we can not be aware of underpinning FTB’s desire for product and market segment diversification.

As a general observation and I have direct hands on experience when I say this; it is often easy to become distracted by what eventually proves to be erroneous market information. An unintentional but “good faith” drift from cornerstone strategies occurs and focus is lost, shifting from what you did best.

NZ companies in formation stage are naturally more revenue hungry than mature organisations. I have learnt to appreciate that three of the key drivers for growth are:

a) preservation of shareholders funds
b) not being all things to everyone
c) focus and patience

Differentiation, quality and value are vitally important in a niche market as is sticking to one thing (or product, or theme) with absolute concentration. Such persistence shall bear the desired results in time. Branching out before you have truly established yourself can harm the image of the company and is in my view potentially unwise during a growth phase. Unnecessary experimentation may lead to a hard cash burn.

I make these points as general observations and I do not infer criticism of FTB. I have a bottle in the cupboard :)

[The Doctor]

a good summary..MSL....line extensions after establishing the BRAND indelibly in the market place is the only strategy.How many 'secret recipes' can one bloke have.Question for management...why are you investing in other 'penny dreadfull coy's'?
I will bet anyone, 42b DOES NOT OWN 20% of the total domestic Vodka mkt...where did this b/s originate?

[Snow Leopard]

MSL: I am not sure that you have the tempo of your posts quiet right yet. :)

regards

Paper Tiger

[The Doctor]

a good summary..MSL....line extensions after establishing the BRAND indelibly in the market place is the only strategy.How many 'secret recipes' can one bloke have.Question for management...why are you investing in other 'penny dreadfull coy's'?
I will bet anyone, 42b DOES NOT OWN 20% of the total domestic Vodka mkt...where did this b/s originate?

[spector]

Excellent. Finally Doc puts his money where his mouth is. I'll take on your bet for 5k.

The information about 42 owning 20% of the total domestic vodka market was in their 2005 end of year report.

Why don't you contact the securities commission to check up on it. Should be relatively simple.

Don't back out on me Doc, I'd hate for this to be one of your wild statements like:

"the market leaders are going to crush 42" which got changed to "the market leaders are not going to bother crushing 42 because they are unimportant" two posts later.

[spector]

Also, nice self congratulatory banter between Doc and MSL.. almost as good as the banter that happened between Minder and Doc when Doc first appeared. :)

And you're both right, diversification is always a bad thing, Nokia should never have gone away from forestry and started making cellphones.

[StainlessSteelRat]

quote:Originally posted by spector
And you're both right, diversification is always a bad thing, Nokia should never have gone away from forestry and started making cellphones.


Hardly apples with apples. At least when Nokia changed direction they did it with purpose and focus. They didn't say "oh let's make cellphones and ovens and maybe there's a market for kettles as well" before they'd even given the cellphones a chance to make money.

[barnsley bill]

quote:Originally posted by spector

Excellent. Finally Doc puts his money where his mouth is. I'll take on your bet for 5k.

The information about 42 owning 20% of the total domestic vodka market was in their 3005 end of year report.

Why don't you contact the securities commission to check up on it. Should be relatively simple.

Don't back out on me Doc, I'd hate for this to be one of your wild statements like:

"the market leaders are going to crush 42" which got changed to "the market leaders are not going to bother crushing 42 because they are unimportant" two posts later.


can i borrow your time machine please!!

[spector]

Not at all SST, before NOKIA was a cellphone comapny it was a forestry company - but before it was a forestry company it was a company that manufactured gumboots. So it's a good example of a company that isn't fixated about what it's core business is.

[spector]

quote:Originally posted by barnsley bill


quote:Originally posted by spector

Excellent. Finally Doc puts his money where his mouth is. I'll take on your bet for 5k.

The information about 42 owning 20% of the total domestic vodka market was in their 3005 end of year report.

Why don't you contact the securities commission to check up on it. Should be relatively simple.

Don't back out on me Doc, I'd hate for this to be one of your wild statements like:

"the market leaders are going to crush 42" which got changed to "the market leaders are not going to bother crushing 42 because they are unimportant" two posts later.


can i borrow your time machine please!!



oops sorry, meant to say 2005 not 3005 - have changed the post now. However you're welcome to buy my time machine at anytime you like. 3005 is awesome! Still no flying cars but the roadworks on the Auckland motorway have almost been compleated.

[barnsley bill]

have the all blacks won another world cup yet.

[spector]

quote:Originally posted by barnsley bill

have the all blacks won another world cup yet.


Well, yes and no. England changed the rules so that the only countries that are allowed to compete in the rugby world cup are England and England. England has since fielded three teams each World Cup. One made up of Australians, one made up of South Africans and one made up of New Zealanders. In 3005 the NZ England team had won 130 of the last 142 world cups.

[Nevl]

Actually Nokia got into all consumer eletronics in the late 80s. You could still get Nokia Gumboots as well as TV's and VCR's. Just cell phones took off in the early 90's and they decided to drop all the other products and just concentrate on cell phones. They almost went broke in 1988 -89 before the phone business started to make traction and rescue the whole company. Juka Ollia has spoken about the diversification decisions many times.

Lots of cool stories in Finland of people finding Nokia share certs from the 50's and 60's worth many millions of $$ today. If only Skellerup had showed the same inventiveness!!!

[The Doctor]

spectre ...you better check the report!...GR stated 42B would break even mar2005 yr,make a profit mar 2006...?????yeah right!

[spector]

quote:Originally posted by The Doctor

spectre ...you better check the report!...GR stated 42B would break even mar2005 yr,make a profit mar 2006...?????yeah right!


There's nothing in the half year or full year report about making a profit in 2006. In fact quite the opposite, both reports talk about not being driven by short term dividend yields or conforming to commentators expectations. Instead the focus is on growth.

What there is though is a statement about selling over a million bottles of gin and vodka and owning 20% of the domestic vodka market (more by value).

which brings us back to your challenge Doc:

"I will bet anyone, 42b DOES NOT OWN 20% of the total domestic Vodka mkt"

And me taking up your challenge for 5k.

How shall we do this? My thoughts are to each give the moderator of the board 5k to hold. We can then get an independent person from the securities commission or similiar to investigate the claim. The person who is found to be correct can then get their 5k plus the other persons 5k from the moderator.

This seems the fairest way to me.

Waiting in anticipation of your reply Doc.

[The BOWMAN]

quote:Originally posted by spector


which brings us back to your challenge Doc:

"I will bet anyone, 42b DOES NOT OWN 20% of the total domestic Vodka mkt"

And me taking up your challenge for 5k.


Spector, frankly, I think you are throwing away your 5K. It would be very hard that 42B owns 20% of the total domestic Vodka mkt. It is more likely to be either lower than 20% (like 19.99999999999999999999999999999999999%) or more than 20% (such as 20.0000000000000000000000000000000000000001%). Just 20%? No, that's too hard.[8D]

[spector]

quote:Originally posted by The BOWMAN


quote:Originally posted by spector


which brings us back to your challenge Doc:

"I will bet anyone, 42b DOES NOT OWN 20% of the total domestic Vodka mkt"

And me taking up your challenge for 5k.


Spector, frankly, I think you are throwing away your 5K. It would be very hard that 42B owns 20% of the total domestic Vodka mkt. It is more likely to be either lower than 20% (like 19.99999999999999999999999999999999999%) or more than 20% (such as 20.0000000000000000000000000000000000000001%). Just 20%? No, that's too hard.[8D]


bless the funny blokes of this world:)

[Snow Leopard]

Ignoring all the extremist opinions expressed during the last day or so from both sides of the divide.

Generally I will invest medium to long term in a company when it shows it can make money on a sustainable basis.
OK. I miss out on the great [potential] gains to be made from putting my dollar in at this stage. But strangely I find I make good returns on boring investment trusts and profit making growth stocks in the mean time. Damn it, I could even make more money out of no growth dividend heavy stocks*.

So the $6 dollar question that I would like answering is:
When will this company actually concetrate on making money?


I have no intention of getting involved in that particular argument on this thread

[Snow Leopard]

PS I reserve the right to trade this one short term

[Snow Leopard]

PPS I do like the vodka flavours, and await the flavoured wines and beers with interest.

[The Doctor]

spectre...forget the securities com..they are hopeless...I'll take your money if you really want me to.42 BELOW can claim 20% of the PREMIUM VODKA mkt...they are not a hope to be 20% of the total mkt .Check Geoff Ross's interview with Jenny Ruth ...to verify the claims of break even by 05 ,profit by 06...from the horses mouth...

[minimoke]

The Distillers Association reckons there is around 175,000 cases of Vodka sold in NZ. FTB reckon they produced 39,000 cases for half year and projected full year of 93,000 cases. So how much of their product is exported? If you know this then you can figure out their NZ market share!

[spector]

quote:Originally posted by The Doctor

spectre...forget the securities com..they are hopeless...I'll take your money if you really want me to.42 BELOW can claim 20% of the PREMIUM VODKA mkt...they are not a hope to be 20% of the total mkt .Check Geoff Ross's interview with Jenny Ruth ...to verify the claims of break even by 05 ,profit by 06...from the horses mouth...


got a link for the article? I assume it's an article, It's not in the report like you said?

[spector]

quote:Originally posted by minimoke

The Distillers Association reckons there is around 175,000 cases of Vodka sold in NZ. FTB reckon they produced 39,000 cases for half year and projected full year of 93,000 cases. So how much of their product is exported? If you know this then you can figure out their NZ market share!


cheers, I will do some digging to find unbiased sources for 42 production and for total cases sold in nz. I'll try and make it as transparent as I can.

[minimoke]

cheers, I will do some digging to find unbiased sources for 42 production and for total cases sold in nz. I'll try and make it as transparent as I can.
[/quote]

In Sept 2003 approx article {http://www.equity.co.nz/scripts/getfile.asp?DB_FILE_ID=188): "After moving into full commercial production of super premium vodka last year, 42 BELOW has captured 10% of the New Zealand vodka market by value and 30% of the New Zealand
super premium vodka market. That means that over the past year the company’s local sales have gone from 100 cases a month to 600 cases a month." At that time, assuming 150,000 case sales this only made up 4.8% of the NZ market