42 Below - Beyond the IPO...

[spector]

quote:Originally posted by minimoke

cheers, I will do some digging to find unbiased sources for 42 production and for total cases sold in nz. I'll try and make it as transparent as I can.


In Sept 2003 approx article {http://www.equity.co.nz/scripts/getfile.asp?DB_FILE_ID=188): "After moving into full commercial production of super premium vodka last year, 42 BELOW has captured 10% of the New Zealand vodka market by value and 30% of the New Zealand
super premium vodka market. That means that over the past year the company’s local sales have gone from 100 cases a month to 600 cases a month." At that time, assuming 150,000 case sales this only made up 4.8% of the NZ market
[/quote]


We could extrapolate from this by factoring in their growth rate since 2003 - but this would still just be a wooly guess because we don't know how much the total market has grown and how much of 42's growth has been domestic and how much has been international.

[MSL]

quote:Originally posted by spector
got a link for the article? I assume it's an article, It's not in the report like you said?


http://www.sharechat.co.nz/features/iinterviews/article.php/67d6d5c7

[minimoke]

We could extrapolate from this by factoring in their growth rate since 2003 - but this would still just be a wooly guess because we don't know how much the total market has grown and how much of 42's growth has been domestic and how much has been international.
[/quote]
Statistics, damn statistics.

Spirit consumption for YE Dec 2004 increased 9.4%

By June 2005 Consumption of spirits was 23.6% (up from 22.1%) of the grog market to 50m litres.

Vodka consumption made up 12% of the Spirits consumption – or 6m litres.

20% of 6m = 1,200,000 litres – FTB supposed NZ market share.

1.2m liters by 750 ml bottles = 1,600,000 bottles or 133,000 cases.This being 38,000 cases more than FTB full year projected output leaving a shortfall for the NZ market and none for export.

Meaning the FTB spin can't be supported by the numbers


Edit: SSR - Thanks for the maths!.
(and if if another number is needed gin makes up 15% of the spirits market - I have no idea FTB's spin on this market share)

[barnsley bill]

the debate on this thread by people who appear to me to be inteligent savvy investors is a clear demonstration that all we get from ftb is vague spin. a number of you are tieing yourselves in mental knots trying to figure them out based on ancient press articles and upbeat announcements with no detail..
:D

[StainlessSteelRat]

quote:Originally posted by minimoke

1.2m liters by 750 ml bottles = 900,000 bottles or 75,000 cases. Leaving 20,000 cases for export.


Am i missing something here. If there were 1.2m litres sold in litre bottles, it would be 1.2m bottles. Given that the bottles only hold 3/4l then it must be 1.6m bottles, or 133,333 cases. That is a shedload of vodka.

[blackcap]

all I ask is what constitutes a sale?

[KJ]

[quote]Originally posted by minimoke
[
Spirit consumption for YE Dec 2004 increased 9.4%

By June 2005 Consumption of spirits was 23.6% (up from 22.1%) of the grog market to 50m litres.


Was the NZ spirit market really 50m litres? Where did this info come from?

[minimoke]

quote:
Was the NZ spirit market really 50m litres? Where did this info come from?

From the Distillers Association for example:
"“In terms of total market volumes in 2005, spirits contribution of 50 million litres is modest when compared with beer at 316 million litres and 86 million litres of wine,” he {Mr Chin} said.
New Zealand’s top five popular spirits are bourbon, gin, vodka, dark rum and scotch."

[KJ]

quote:Originally posted by minimoke


quote:
Was the NZ spirit market really 50m litres? Where did this info come from?

From the Distillers Association for example:
"“In terms of total market volumes in 2005, spirits contribution of 50 million litres is modest when compared with beer at 316 million litres and 86 million litres of wine,” he {Mr Chin} said.
New Zealand’s top five popular spirits are bourbon, gin, vodka, dark rum and scotch."


Thanks Minimoke

[spector]

quote:Originally posted by barnsley bill

the debate on this thread by people who appear to me to be inteligent savvy investors is a clear demonstration that all we get from ftb is vague spin. a number of you are tieing yourselves in mental knots trying to figure them out based on ancient press articles and upbeat announcements with no detail..
:D


Fair call BB, I do let my emotions take over some times in FTB posts. I sent a bunch of emails out last week to try and find out from un-biased sources what percentage of the market 42 owns and how big that market is. Less emotion from Spec and more facts coming up.:)

[spector]

Hey wow! I sent an email to Geoff Ross on friday and he's replied with this (I only checked my Hotmail today and didn't expect such a quick reply! That's the sort of pro-activeness I like from this company)



My email to him is at the bottom and his reply is on top.



From : Geoff Ross <geoff@42below.co.nz>
Sent : Friday, 10 March 2006 4:44:33 p.m.
To : "peter thompson" <fivegrandbet@hotmail.com>
Subject : RE: I need some shareholder information geoff!


Go to previous message | Go to next message | Delete | Inbox

Hi Peter.

It will depend if you are talking about volume or value.

Volume. While not having an exact figure on the total New Zealand Vodka
market, we believe it is around 160,000 cases annually.

In our most recent 3 months we sold approx 8,000 cases of Vodka in NZ.
If you extrapolate this volume it would be approx a 20% market share.

By value it will be much greater than this, as we are significantly
higher priced than the most other vodkas. If the measure is by value -
you have a clear winner.

In the super premium category, we are easily the number 1 vodka in New
Zealand and Australia. In fact in these two markets we out sell all the
other super premiums combined.

All numbers mentioned relate to 9 litre cases which is the industry
standard measure.

Hope this makes for a rewarding weekend.

Geoff.



-----Original Message-----
From: peter thompson [mailto:fivegrandbet@hotmail.com]
Sent: Friday, 10 March 2006 3:08 p.m.
To: Geoff Ross
Subject: I need some shareholder information geoff!

Hello Geoff,

Recently I've become involved in an argument on the sharetrader forum
concerning your statement that 42 BELOW owns 20% of the New Zealand
Domestic Vodka Market.

I've said that this is true and my adversary has said it's bull****.

What's it's now come down too is a wager of five thousand dollars.

For me to win this bet I need to find out from an unbiased source the
total size of the NZ domestic vodka market and also 42's case sales in
that market.

cheers geoff,
spector.

__________________________________________________ _______________
Looking for love? Check out XtraMSN Personals

[minimoke]

quote:
Volume. While not having an exact figure on the total New Zealand Vodka
market, we believe it is around 160,000 cases annually.

In our most recent 3 months we sold approx 8,000 cases of Vodka in NZ.
If you extrapolate this volume it would be approx a 20% market share.


SSR can help me with my math but here goes.
6m litres of vodka in the NZ market by 9 litre cases = 666,666 cases. 32,000 cases = 4.8% of the market.

[Snow Leopard]

FYI: According to Statistics New Zealand (http://www2.stats.govt.nz/domino/external/pasfull/pasfull.nsf/7cf46ae26dcb6800cc256a62000a2248/4c2567ef00247c6acc25711c00798682?OpenDocument) the volume of spirits available for consumption in 2005 was 10.6m litres.

regards

Paper Tiger

[barnsley bill]

quote:Originally posted by spector

Hey wow! I sent an email to Geoff Ross on friday and he's replied with this (I only checked my Hotmail today and didn't expect such a quick reply! That's the sort of pro-activeness I like from this company)



My email to him is at the bottom and his reply is on top.



From : Geoff Ross <geoff@42below.co.nz>
Sent : Friday, 10 March 2006 4:44:33 p.m.
To : "peter thompson" <fivegrandbet@hotmail.com>
Subject : RE: I need some shareholder information geoff!


Go to previous message | Go to next message | Delete | Inbox

Hi Peter.

It will depend if you are talking about volume or value.

Volume. While not having an exact figure on the total New Zealand Vodka
market, we believe it is around 160,000 cases annually.

In our most recent 3 months we sold approx 8,000 cases of Vodka in NZ.
If you extrapolate this volume it would be approx a 20% market share.

By value it will be much greater than this, as we are significantly
higher priced than the most other vodkas. If the measure is by value -
you have a clear winner.

In the super premium category, we are easily the number 1 vodka in New
Zealand and Australia. In fact in these two markets we out sell all the
other super premiums combined.

All numbers mentioned relate to 9 litre cases which is the industry
standard measure.

Hope this makes for a rewarding weekend.

Geoff.



-----Original Message-----
From: peter thompson [mailto:fivegrandbet@hotmail.com]
Sent: Friday, 10 March 2006 3:08 p.m.
To: Geoff Ross
Subject: I need some shareholder information geoff!

Hello Geoff,

Recently I've become involved in an argument on the sharetrader forum
concerning your statement that 42 BELOW owns 20% of the New Zealand
Domestic Vodka Market.

I've said that this is true and my adversary has said it's bull****.

What's it's now come down too is a wager of five thousand dollars.

For me to win this bet I need to find out from an unbiased source the
total size of the NZ domestic vodka market and also 42's case sales in
that market.

cheers geoff,
spector.

__________________________________________________ _______________
Looking for love? Check out XtraMSN Personals



Unbiased source!!!!, also i think you have been played with his extrapolation of a three month period that includes xmas and new year.

Nice to see a ceo replying to hotmail addresses though.

[The Doctor]

brilliant...so 8000 cases is 20% of 160,000 cases!!?PREMIUM,SUPER PREMIUM...spin dr at work...you lose Spectre...!Did you ask him about break even mar 05,profit mar 06?

[Snow Leopard]

quote:Originally posted by The Doctor

brilliant...so 8000 cases is 20% of 160,000 cases!!?PREMIUM,SUPER PREMIUM...spin dr at work...you lose Spectre...!Did you ask him about break even mar 05,profit mar 06?

Brilliant, Geoff "The Vodka Bloke" Ross, for all his faults, is better at basic maths than The Doctor.

It would seem that, though currently impossible to prove, 42B do in fact supply about 20% of the vodka (by volume) to the New Zealand market and a good bet that they supply more than 20% of the vodka (by value) to the same.

It is a certain bet that this will not stop any of you arguing about it ;)

However my actual real money on the stock bet would not be until 42below start to turn an overall profit.

Cheers
Paper Tiger

[The Doctor]

unfortunately the TOTAL NZ VODKA mkt is NOT just 9 litre cases!!!...hip flasks,500ml,750ml,1l,1.25l,RTD mixers like KGB,STOLI,...'MORE 'SPIN' from the 'spin doctor'..GR...by conveniently 'extraprolating' their best 3mths sales of 8000 cases by a mutiplier to suit their 'ramping'...you can be sure 'audited' sales ,i.e real sales,not inventory are nowhere near 20% of the TOTAL NZ vodka mkt.

[lanenz]

If the 3 months @ 8,000 cases is for the last 3 months of 05 or even Dec, Jan, Feb then my wild hunch is they sold around 25,000 cases for 05. im basing on the last 3 months being their most productive in sales.

to break down some of these figures that is

225,000 litres of the secret recipe.

The average New Zealander drank about 17mls of FTB. (there is a few underage drinkers in that calculation). Or for every 42 (isnt that ironic, dont you think?) people they drank 1 bottle between them during 05.

Not a lot drank during the year but im sure FTB can leverage off some of the other alcohol variations over time.

They must have a high marketing budget with there agressive marketing campaign and I would expect a rights issue before this co starts making money. Im much the same as PT, ill wait till they start making some money before i dabble in this one.

[Snow Leopard]

quote:Originally posted by The Doctor

unfortunately the TOTAL NZ VODKA mkt is NOT just 9 litre cases!!!...hip flasks,500ml,750ml,1l,1.25l,RTD mixers like KGB,STOLI,...'MORE 'SPIN' from the 'spin doctor'..GR...by conveniently 'extraprolating' their best 3mths sales of 8000 cases by a mutiplier to suit their 'ramping'...you can be sure 'audited' sales ,i.e real sales,not inventory are nowhere near 20% of the TOTAL NZ vodka mkt.


quote:Orginally posted by Paper Tiger

It is a certain bet that this will not stop any of you arguing about it ;)


Our Good Doctor seems to be from the same mold as Geoff Ross himself with his aggressive style of [negative] spin. I definitely would not like to be in the spittle zone from this guy. [V]

I am amazed how worked up people can get. Still it makes for good reading and this thread is infinitely better than the NZO one at the moment.
Please continue [:X]

[marinesalvor]

hehe - all good postings - this thread has regained its entertainment value

[Placebo]

Whatever the Doctor is a Doctor of it is clearly not maths or even logic!

Keep on posting, doc, you've just made the most enormous d1ck of yourself. More howlers please!!

[StainlessSteelRat]

quote:Originally posted by spector

Volume. While not having an exact figure on the total New Zealand Vodka
market, we believe it is around 160,000 cases annually.

In our most recent 3 months we sold approx 8,000 cases of Vodka in NZ.
If you extrapolate this volume it would be approx a 20% market share.


Well done for following through, but again there is more spin than a F&P drier. If we're comparing apples with apples, then we should know how many total sales there were in the three month period that Geoff refers to. I'm suspecting that more vodka is sold as the weather gets better - probably 70% of the market would be done in the six months from Oct-Mar, with the other 30% coming during Apr-Sept (note this is just a guess).

That being the case (no pun intended) we are looking at about 110,000 cases being sold, or about 18,000 month. So 8000 cases out of 54,000 during that three month period isn't 20% of the market - more like 15% - not bad, but not good enough to nail the $5k.


quote:
From: peter thompson [mailto:fivegrandbet@hotmail.com]


Oops, i won't tell if you don't. ;)

[minimoke]

So here is the quarter by quarter consumption of Spirits (alcohol content of more than 23 percent) in millions of litres) which would include FTB:
2004 Mar 2.565
Jun 2.166
Sep 2.932
Dec 3.359
2005 Mar 2.380
Jun 2.590
Sep 2.176
Dec 3.447

Interesting to see that wine and Spirits-based drinks (which won't be FTB) are achieving year-on-year and quarter-on-quarter increases. Whereas Spirits (like vodka) and Beer have some big inconsistencies including big drops.

[minimoke]

I am not sure I understand this. If your product is supposedly “Super Premium” but you have 20% of the total market, are you not actually producing a product that suits the “average” tastes of the masses.

I don’t think there is any such ratio but I would have thought that something that is “super premium”, like for example a Lamborghini, a fine French Champagne, fresh caviar or Rolex watches would have been only accessible to a very, very small percentage of the population. These people having either the disposable income for such a commodity or a refined palate to appreciate something a whole lot better than average – or indeed plonk.

So it seems, perhaps, that FTB connoisseurs are either:
1) a few real big piss heads, consuming many bottles in a small NZ population or
2) your average vodka plonk drinker, happy to quaff any old brew – even if it’s at a higher price.

[The Doctor]

what a surprise!The '5 thousand dollar man'...has turned into a 'magician'....and vanished!..:D

[Snow Leopard]

quote:Originally posted by The Doctor

what a surprise!The '5 thousand dollar man'...has turned into a 'magician'....and vanished!..:D

He is busy trying to track you down and collect on the bet ;)

[The Doctor]

Why 42B will fail.Business strategy is often compared to warfare...when seeking to 'break into' an established mkt position occupied by powerfull incumbents ..you always concentrate your resources to obtain a 'foothold'...you pour ALL your resources into gaining mkt share,sustaining it and expanding it!....if like 42 b however you decide to spread your resources to a multitude of points...gin,rum,water,investing in 'pennydreadful's'...you are doomed to fail.There is more chance of GR growing a full head of hair than this coy producing worthwhile returns to shareholders....'in hindsight we should have just concentrated on our premium flagship..42B!'..yeah right!...Stil Vodka $50 for 2 bottles...trying the 'low' end of the mkt now...await March 06 'profit' announcement..with 'baited breath'!

[spector]

quote:Originally posted by The Doctor

what a surprise!The '5 thousand dollar man'...has turned into a 'magician'....and vanished!..:D


I'm still here. Just waiting on some figures from people outside of 42.
I'd hate for you to find a loophole you can squirm through Doc.

[barnsley bill]

quote:Originally posted by The Doctor

Why 42B will fail.Business strategy is often compared to warfare...when seeking to 'break into' an established mkt position occupied by powerfull incumbents ..you always concentrate your resources to obtain a 'foothold'...you pour ALL your resources into gaining mkt share,sustaining it and expanding it!....if like 42 b however you decide to spread your resources to a multitude of points...gin,rum,water,investing in 'pennydreadful's'...you are doomed to fail.There is more chance of GR growing a full head of hair than this coy producing worthwhile returns to shareholders....'in hindsight we should have just concentrated on our premium flagship..42B!'..yeah right!...Stil Vodka $50 for 2 bottles...trying the 'low' end of the mkt now...await March 06 'profit' announcement..with 'baited breath'!


Bit of a worry if they are discounting the new brand already, i suppose they will call it brand building and not shift as much as they can to make our volumes look better before reporting time!!!!

And what is up with the sp seems stuck at 53....

[The Doctor]

when the warrants were due to be exercised a 'friendly patsy' was required...someone with credibility...a profile...after the event usually these 'sweetheart deals' are contoured...RJ Investments used to indulge in 'selling' properties at a profit prior to balance date to inflate 'profits'...the 'creative accounting' dept is alive and well at ??

[barnsley bill]

currently has a buy at 52 cents, lack of spin has seen this stock go very quiet. when are we next due some figures??

[marinesalvor]

we were due for figures ages ago

in the meantime I will go back to drinking the kiwifruit one

[barnsley bill]

quote:Originally posted by marinesalvor

we were due for figures ages ago

in the meantime I will go back to drinking the kiwifruit one


common sense would suggest that if the figures were going to be good we would have seen them as soon as they could get them out.

[GTM 3442]

There has been money to be made in trading FTB in the past. Most likely, there will be money to be made in trading FTB in the future.

Timing will be important.

There has been no money to be made from FTB as an earner. There seems little chance that there will be money to be made from FTB as an earner in the near future.

So, one picks ones day, one picks ones price, one buys, and one hopes that the price goes up. . .

[marinesalvor]

i suspect they are hatching a good result for fy sales - I know for a fact that their reps have pushed corporate deals very hard recently - so knowing these guys they didnt give a 3Q result so that 4Q/FY looks amazing.

[Placebo]

quote:Originally posted by marinesalvor

i suspect they are hatching a good result for fy sales - I know for a fact that their reps have pushed corporate deals very hard recently - so knowing these guys they didnt give a 3Q result so that 4Q/FY looks amazing.


Ho ho ho, that'll fool the Doc for sure! :D

[barnsley bill]

on a positive note the dollar drop will help them

[marinesalvor]

I bought another large bottle last night - so that should help!

[The Doctor]

Well 1 day to go to see if G.Ross can deliver the promised 'profit by March 06'!....come in spinner!

[marinesalvor]

be funny if they did Doctor - but I prefer growth behaviours to pure short term profit pursuit in a startup

[The Doctor]

quote:Originally posted by marinesalvor

be funny if they did Doctor - but I prefer growth behaviours to pure short term profit pursuit in a startup


'short term profit'....how many YEARS they been going now?Market has not been tolerant of coy's that do not meet ...'projections'!

[marinesalvor]

I'd rather they thought big and spent money on growing, rather than think profit at all costs.

its easy to turn a profit if you keep your horizon tiny

[The Doctor]

'wow'...I'm surprised one of the 'faithfool' haven't merely emailed the [:o)]'good vodkabloke' GR himself and asked about 3q earnings and the 'in profit by mar 06'!!

[nottiger]

quote:Originally posted by The Doctor

'wow'...I'm surprised one of the 'faithfool' haven't merely emailed the [:o)]'good vodkabloke' GR himself and asked about 3q earnings and the 'in profit by mar 06'!!


Hi,

Lets wait and see - investment in FTB is with considerable upside and some downside risk .

If they miss a first profit target I think that is common for start ups - BUT _ Does any one know how they are doing in volume sales vs the prospectus??

[marinesalvor]

Nottiger - thats the question - I guess we can only wait till May for the answer

[The Doctor]

this will be the answer!...'we are profitable in all mkts ...except!'...instead of expen of $1.70 to produce rev of $1...it is now ONLY $1.50!...BUT STICK WITH THE SHIP ...THE BEST IS YET TO COME'!See...how accurate I am....so predictable.[V]

[marinesalvor]

we have to stick with it Doc - if only jus to enjoy your posts

[Bobby_Fischer]

So, thanks to Kiwi decline, and depending on the definition of "markedly lower", they may well have been profitable in the second half. Doc, seems you are on the wrong kind of medicine - try some FTB.

[The Doctor]

you've got to be kidding me!...the falling dollar will help 42below's...PROFITS....so the LOSS will be less than forecast!...GR told Jenny Ruth PROFITABLE by Mar 2006....this is percieved as GOOD NEWS!!![?][:o)][:I][B)]

[Bobby_Fischer]

The announcement says the FY loss will be "markedly lower" than ($3.5M). 2006 EBITDA at 30/09 was negative $2.5M. If "markedly lower" meant, for example ($2.0M), which seems plausible, then there would be a profit of $0.5M in the second half. If so, FTB WOULD be PROFITABLE by Mar 2006. Even on zero growth ("The company expects export growth to continue"), with Kiwi declining further, and impact over the full 12 months, FTB would be expected to have a bottom line profit for FY 07.

Conclusion: Doc, you are no longer rational. If not FTB, on principle, then at least prescribe yourself a valium, while FTB holders party!

[The Doctor]

this is not 'chess'...K.I.S.S....will FTB show a profit for the yr ending Mar 06 or won't it?[?]

[Bobby_Fischer]

If you were keeping it simple yourself, you wouldn't keep on asking questions to which you already had an answer. Read the announcement! BTW, have you tried Manuka FTB? I hear it soothes frazzled nerves.

[CJ]

I second the Manuka FTB.

[Toddy]

Manuka FTB sounds nice.

However, I'm not too sure how the overseas market will go with the Maori names.

Might get a few fans from up north BUT they cannot afford this stuff.

"Ever tried the Manu vodka, yeah"

[CJ]

I thing it still says manuka honey vodka so people should get the drift.

To get back on topic, have they made a profit yet? ;)

[nottiger]

quote:Originally posted by Toddy

Manuka FTB sounds nice.

However, I'm not too sure how the overseas market will go with the Maori names.

Might get a few fans from up north BUT they cannot afford this stuff.

"Ever tried the Manu vodka, yeah"


We use Puku(as a TM) and are 99% focused on USA - have done 2 trade shows there and numerous trips - US people by and large LOVE everything NZ - Puku of course is a MAori work - ( yanks say "poo koo"! - but the meaning of poo is not what we think - luckily!)

I think manuka is distinctive and fine........

Cheers

Simon

[marinesalvor]

fyi guys - manuka honey is big overseas in informed markets - people like Comvita are doing well with manuka (UMF) products in the UK, EU and Asia... so GR and the gang did well to link up the NZ stories

I still have most of a bottle of Manuka - Feijoa and Kiwi are my drops

[marinesalvor]

real point - Manuka is well known in many target markets, as is the concept of UMF - unique manuka factor

[marinesalvor]

if you dont believe me - head into Holland and Barretts, sainsbury and M&S and see!

[barnsley bill]

somebody dumped 4,000,000 at 50 cents today. perhaps another foundation shareholder bailing.

[The Doctor]

how many did the 'patsy' warehouse to support the warrants?;)

[barnsley bill]

with a holding of 4 million shares plus it can only be one of the originals or wright who bought the big chunk from baker, surely they would have a reasonable handle on y/e performance and if all was good why sell 6c below market price??

[danchop]

this marketing company has a cap of about 85 million all based on hype,this is vodka not uranium/oil/coal,theyve had three years soon and only losses to date,wake up and see a lemon unpeeling

[marinesalvor]

wait and see Dan - you never know

[minimoke]

quote:Originally posted by barnsley bill

somebody dumped 4,000,000 at 50 cents today. perhaps another foundation shareholder bailing.


Alternatively someone has snapped up 4m @$0.50. Good luck to them!

[The Doctor]

1st the release of 'good news' to prime for a 4 million share dump at 50c!...need more than 'good luck' with the FY results at the auditors now.Talk about unabashed optimists!Obviously some very large stakeholder has no confidence at all in the performance of this increasingly unrecognisable creation...one core product,...now a host of capital hungery line extensions,share trading operations....what other 'opportunities' can they 'sell' the gullible?

[Bobby_Fischer]

A gag, perhaps, for those given to frequent intemperate outburts?

[The Doctor]

anythings possible Bobby...what about 'ramps' ,large ones?

[marinesalvor]

so the Mckillens are selling down their holdings...

[StainlessSteelRat]

I noticed that it said that the sale was "an onmarket sale of ordinary shares". If that is the case, why was it not listed in the day's quotes?

I imagine that any TA people would have their warning lights and whistles going off bigtime with a sale of 6m at 50c, which would have shown it closing on it's daily low -6c for the day. That would have set off stoploss programs all over the place.

[blackcap]

quote:Originally posted by StainlessSteelRat

I noticed that it said that the sale was "an onmarket sale of ordinary shares". If that is the case, why was it not listed in the day's quotes?

I imagine that any TA people would have their warning lights and whistles going off bigtime with a sale of 6m at 50c, which would have shown it closing on it's daily low -6c for the day. That would have set off stoploss programs all over the place.


It was crossed on market at 50 cents. Saw the trade myself! In fact 2 million went through at 50 cents yesterday.

[Snow Leopard]

quote:Originally posted by StainlessSteelRat

I noticed that it said that the sale was "an onmarket sale of ordinary shares". If that is the case, why was it not listed in the day's quotes?

I imagine that any TA people would have their warning lights and whistles going off bigtime with a sale of 6m at 50c, which would have shown it closing on it's daily low -6c for the day. That would have set off stoploss programs all over the place.

To answer your question literally: the day of the buy/sell and the day of notice do not have to be the same. If you read the notices you will spot that:
1) The notices refer to previous trading days.
2) McKillen, McKillen & Fine have now sold or agreed to sell 10m shares.

Disc: sometimes drink the contents of the bottles, sometimes short term trade the shares, but hold? Don't be silly

[StainlessSteelRat]

quote:Originally posted by Paper Tiger


To answer your question literally: the day of the buy/sell and the day of notice do not have to be the same. If you read the notices you will spot that:
1) The notices refer to previous trading days.
2) McKillen, McKillen & Fine have now sold or agreed to sell 10m shares.


I realise all that, and if you look at the trading figures from the NZX, http://www.nzx.com/market/security_details/by_security?code=FTB it shows two large volume spikes that correspond to the sales.

BUT, the price indicators have never shown the 50c price that they were sold at. Why not? If the NZX is running an open market, it would have accounted for the sale at the correct price, so that the day's trading would have been something like:

Bid 0.56
Offer 0.56
First 0.56
High 0.56
Low 0.50
Last 0.50
Movement -0.06

The fact that they haven't has distorted the market, because it's not showing a true indication of the trading value of this share.

[barnsley bill]

and mckillens alleged reason for selling is to purchase panache llc, which if you recall was the distributor that was going to sell in the states and announcement of panache caused a jump in sp. they had 5 million options to be exercised this year at 70c. so either US sales are no good causing the buy back or panache have pulled out because the options are too expensive. either way we have a significant original shareholder bailing out below current market price. end of year figures awaited eagerly!!

[Snow Leopard]

quote:Originally posted by StainlessSteelRat

BUT, the price indicators have never shown the 50c price that they were sold at. Why not? If the NZX is running an open market, it would have accounted for the sale at the correct price, so that the day's trading would have been something like:

Bid 0.56
Offer 0.56
First 0.56
High 0.56
Low 0.50
Last 0.50
Movement -0.06

The fact that they haven't has distorted the market, because it's not showing a true indication of the trading value of this share.


Almost certainly the "On market sale" went through "Off market" and these do not influence the highs and lows reported by the NZX.

The sale would be "On market" in that they would have informed their broker that they had lots of shares to sell (perhaps the word promply was used as well) at 50c or better.
However the broker would then ring round to find some buyers for them instead of sticking them in the sell queue and the subsequent transactions would be marked as "Off market".

Or to summarise "On market" and "Off market" are not mutually exclusive [:0]
Could be wrong, but I think that is how it works.

regards

Paper Tiger

[Futurz]

quote:Originally posted by StainlessSteelRat


quote:Originally posted by Paper Tiger


To answer your question literally: the day of the buy/sell and the day of notice do not have to be the same. If you read the notices you will spot that:
1) The notices refer to previous trading days.
2) McKillen, McKillen & Fine have now sold or agreed to sell 10m shares.


I realise all that, and if you look at the trading figures from the NZX, http://www.nzx.com/market/security_details/by_security?code=FTB it shows two large volume spikes that correspond to the sales.

BUT, the price indicators have never shown the 50c price that they were sold at. Why not? If the NZX is running an open market, it would have accounted for the sale at the correct price, so that the day's trading would have been something like:

Bid 0.56
Offer 0.56
First 0.56
High 0.56
Low 0.50
Last 0.50
Movement -0.06

The fact that they haven't has distorted the market, because it's not showing a true indication of the trading value of this share.


SSR

Despite it being said that it was "an onmarket sale of ordinary shares" it was actually an off-market trade i.e. a marriage/crossing (same broker on both the buying and selling side).

Under NZX rules a crossing can be "outside the quotes" if it exceeds $1 million.

Another point of note, which i think is what you're getting at, is that crossings while reflected in volume figures are not reflected in the price figures for the day.

This happens everyday in a number of stocks so i wouldn't get to concerned about it.

It is not unusual for large crossings to be outside the quotes as when disposing on a large holding it is often necessary to do so at a discount. Likewise when purchasing a large holding you may have to pay a premium.

[StainlessSteelRat]

quote:Originally posted by Futurz


Under NZX rules a crossing can be "outside the quotes" if it exceeds $1 million.

Another point of note, which i think is what you're getting at, is that crossings while reflected in volume figures are not reflected in the price figures for the day.

This happens everyday in a number of stocks so i wouldn't get to concerned about it.

It is not unusual for large crossings to be outside the quotes as when disposing on a large holding it is often necessary to do so at a discount. Likewise when purchasing a large holding you may have to pay a premium.


Thanks for the explanation. You were right in that i was interested in how the volume but not the price could be included. Personally i think either both or none should be detailed - probably none, as there is a distortionary effect from the discounted price.

[The Doctor]

I guess at those volumes 42b must be 'buying back' their own shares...or have they found another 'patsy'?:(

[Bobby_Fischer]

Hey Doc, you old quack you, did you see the SSH noticed filed today by AXA? NM Life holding 4% of FTB in their own right. Your explanation, please, for this apparent incongruity (i.e. a major patsy ... err, institution buying into a "dog", like FTB).

[The Doctor]

it reminds me of 'institutions' buying all those National Mail shares!

[Phaedrus]

"I imagine that any TA people would have their warning lights and whistles going off bigtime" (Stainless Steel Rat, last week)

SSR, I don't think you would find too many TA people holding FTB - most would have been out long ago.

(1) Would have seen short-term holders out in Feb 05
(3) Would have seen medium-term holders out in April 05
(5) Would have seen long-term holders out in November 05

(2) A break in the OBV uptrend gave a clear exit signal in March 05.
(4) The symmetrical triangle "should" have broken "up". It didn't, it broke "down" - (Bearish). This point also marks a break of a "short-term" trendline and the end of the preceding 5 month "short-term" uptrend.

It would be very surprising if there were any TA users left in FTB after that little lot. The recent plunge in the OBV (circled) could be the last straw for any such diehard optimists.

http://h1.ripway.com/Phaedrus/FTB427001.gif

[StainlessSteelRat]

Phaedrus,

As always, i appreciate the efforts you go to regarding TA. Thanks again.

[Gryffyn]

ditto

[barnsley bill]

quote:Originally posted by The Doctor

it reminds me of 'institutions' buying all those National Mail shares!


I was educated about national mail when paul meier floated the company. I had the good fortune to be working for one of the smartest people i have ever known at the time and took the national mail prospectus to this chap excited about the good news in this document. i was advised to search for the page that stated the foundation shareholders would escrow their shares for a fixed period. after i had had escrow explained and had it pointed out to me that there was no such page and they could bail the day after float I chose not to buy any.
The similarities with 42below are clear. The empower boys have increased their wealth many times over with this company and have cashed out at least 5 times more than they put in while still holding a substantial block of shares..

[DJ Monaco]

quote:Originally posted by barnsley bill


quote:Originally posted by The Doctor

it reminds me of 'institutions' buying all those National Mail shares!


I was educated about national mail when paul meier floated the company. I had the good fortune to be working for one of the smartest people i have ever known at the time and took the national mail prospectus to this chap excited about the good news in this document. i was advised to search for the page that stated the foundation shareholders would escrow their shares for a fixed period. after i had had escrow explained and had it pointed out to me that there was no such page and they could bail the day after float I chose not to buy any.
The similarities with 42below are clear. The empower boys have increased their wealth many times over with this company and have cashed out at least 5 times more than they put in while still holding a substantial block of shares..
What similarities would those be? The 42 Below founders had their shares in escrow for 2 years (see prospectus). Also 42 Below is cash rich with increasing sales revenue and losses reducing. National mail did not exist 2 and a half years after it listed. 42 Below is the strongest it has ever been 2 and a half years after listing. As for cashing out. With the exception of Mckillen I think you will find that the only cashing out from the founders was to exercise options, i.e the cash went straight back into the company. Finally you will see other "patsys" like ACC on the register if you care to look (for the benefit of Doc)

[barnsley bill]

quote:Originally posted by DJ Monaco


quote:Originally posted by barnsley bill


quote:Originally posted by The Doctor

it reminds me of 'institutions' buying all those National Mail shares!


I was educated about national mail when paul meier floated the company. I had the good fortune to be working for one of the smartest people i have ever known at the time and took the national mail prospectus to this chap excited about the good news in this document. i was advised to search for the page that stated the foundation shareholders would escrow their shares for a fixed period. after i had had escrow explained and had it pointed out to me that there was no such page and they could bail the day after float I chose not to buy any.
The similarities with 42below are clear. The empower boys have increased their wealth many times over with this company and have cashed out at least 5 times more than they put in while still holding a substantial block of shares..
What similarities would those be? The 42 Below founders had their shares in escrow for 2 years (see prospectus). Also 42 Below is cash rich with increasing sales revenue and losses reducing. National mail did not exist 2 and a half years after it listed. 42 Below is the strongest it has ever been 2 and a half years after listing. As for cashing out. With the exception of Mckillen I think you will find that the only cashing out from the founders was to exercise options, i.e the cash went straight back into the company. Finally you will see other "patsys" like ACC on the register if you care to look (for the benefit of Doc)


whose shares did wright buy?
My comparison was to demonstrate the similarity of foundation owners realising fantastic returns.
your comments suggest that you have knowledge about ftb that I don't, feel free to share.
thanks

[barnsley bill]

The marketing is slipping, one of their sales managers was on one news tonight with a skateboarding bulldog called frank.. And not a mention or pic of the product to be seen anywhere..

[Footsie]

What does everyone think abuot AXA filing a substantial notice in FTB.

First insto to take a real stake....

I read a broker note abuot ftb, that stated their goal is to increase case sales rather than focus on profitability with an exit strategy to sell out in say 3 - 5 years.

for eg... over last 5 years average sale of liquor coy is based on price paid per case, ranginf from $650 to $2,000, mid point being $942

Using this analysis at 93,500 cases, this gives a valuation of $88m. Not too far off the current m/cap of $84m

The value being if FTB could increase case sales over next 3-5 years (using the mid point value per case of $942)to say :
200,000 = m/cap 188m s/p = $1.24
250,000 = m/cap 235m s/p = $1.52
400,000 = m /cap 376m s/p = $2.49

so if yuo believe that can increase case sales to any of the above scenario's.... then this is definitely speculative BUY

[nottiger]

I find these graphs fascinating! - A question It seems to me a graphical trend analysis may be more relevant to more mature companies than FTB? - FTB has a clear market straegy of medium term losses to build brand and volume sales - interested in your opinion

NT

quote:Originally posted by Phaedrus

"I imagine that any TA people would have their warning lights and whistles going off bigtime" (Stainless Steel Rat, last week)

SSR, I don't think you would find too many TA people holding FTB - most would have been out long ago.

(1) Would have seen short-term holders out in Feb 05
(3) Would have seen medium-term holders out in April 05
(5) Would have seen long-term holders out in November 05

(2) A break in the OBV uptrend gave a clear exit signal in March 05.
(4) The symmetrical triangle "should" have broken "up". It didn't, it broke "down" - (Bearish). This point also marks a break of a "short-term" trendline and the end of the preceding 5 month "short-term" uptrend.

It would be very surprising if there were any TA users left in FTB after that little lot. The recent plunge in the OBV (circled) could be the last straw for any such diehard optimists.

http://h1.ripway.com/Phaedrus/FTB427001.gif

[The Doctor]

quote:Originally posted by DJ Monaco


quote:Originally posted by barnsley bill


quote:Originally posted by The Doctor

it reminds me of 'institutions' buying all those National Mail shares!


I was educated about national mail when paul meier floated the company. I had the good fortune to be working for one of the smartest people i have ever known at the time and took the national mail prospectus to this chap excited about the good news in this document. i was advised to search for the page that stated the foundation shareholders would escrow their shares for a fixed period. after i had had escrow explained and had it pointed out to me that there was no such page and they could bail the day after float I chose not to buy any.
The similarities with 42below are clear. The empower boys have increased their wealth many times over with this company and have cashed out at least 5 times more than they put in while still holding a substantial block of shares..
What similarities would those be? The 42 Below founders had their shares in escrow for 2 years (see prospectus). Also 42 Below is cash rich with increasing sales revenue and losses reducing. National mail did not exist 2 and a half years after it listed. 42 Below is the strongest it has ever been 2 and a half years after listing. As for cashing out. With the exception of Mckillen I think you will find that the only cashing out from the founders was to exercise options, i.e the cash went straight back into the company. Finally you will see other "patsys" like ACC on the register if you care to look (for the benefit of Doc)


how ...'ironic'...ACC was one of the biggest holders of Nat Mail...!!!!:D

[Phaedrus]

"It seems to me a graphical trend analysis may be more relevant to more mature companies than FTB"

I think that is probably fair comment Nottiger, but keep in mind that we are trying to monitor the market's perception of FTB and the best tool for that is a share price plot - regardless of the companies maturity. I think you would have to agree that such an approach has worked well with FTB.

It is interesting to go back and look at the FTB chart posted on 20/10/04. (Page 12 of this thread) Both of the suggested indicators triggered Sell signals about 3 months later - almost exactly at the time of the OBV trendline break shown at point (2) on the latest chart. I am usually a strict "trendline break" man, but here, with 3 good indicators simultaneously firing well in advance of the trendline break, I would have sold without waiting for the tlb and thus realising a better sell price.

Stand back a bit and the picture is very very simple. FTB was in a steep uptrend for a year and has been in a downtrend since.

I have never held FTB, but I would like to think that my interpretation of FTB price action would be the same and equally objective even if I had been holding. It is very difficult to be totally dispassionate over stocks that you have invested in, but it is possible and worth striving towards.

[Placebo]

Yes, unfortunately charts aren't forward-looking enough to show that this is but a temporary blip on what will be the relentless upward path of this stock. It's just a matter of time, keep the faith, keep the faith.

Living in hope

Placebo

[The Doctor]

'faith' in that 'strategy'....focussing on increasing sales,and not worrying ABOUT PROFIT!...any fool could justify real losses by that qualifier!....maybe they'll see 'opportunities' in baked beans as well and apply the same rationale....what a joke!$1.70 spent to produce $1 of revenue!!

[marinesalvor]

purely speculative - but you'd have to think there is plenty of upside.

I for one was driven to drink 42B several times by my sports teams this weekend

[thereslifeafter87]

Profits and cashflow drive share price growth.

FTB has neither.

I cannot see this changing anytime soon.

[nottiger]

quote:Originally posted by thereslifeafter87

Profits and cashflow drive share price growth.

FTB has neither.


[?]Has cashflow - growing quite well?[?]

I think we need to ask WHY does a start up raise capital? - Specifically FTB - to spend it on ?????what??????????

Please ........... those are very critical of this innovative start up - [u]WHAT would you spend the dough on?</u>

[marinesalvor]

good call Not tiger - would you raise cash to leave it in the bank?

and obsession with profit? if you sell 20 bottles only, made by GR in his garage, you can turn a profit - but why would you bother?

FPH was carried as a loss on FPA's books for 16-17 years - I bet you knockers would have been screaming blue murder about no profit and no "growth"

[Gryffyn]

on the viral marketing side I've heard several people that I know and a few mags I've read all give the thumbs up to 42 below, Manuka Honey vodka and gingerbeer.

[The Doctor]

as if anyone can identify the brand of vodka when its mixed!!![:0]as for FPH...compare 'apples with apples' old chap!Why float it to raise money?...so the principal s/holders like Killen and co reap millions...!!if you think they're going to put $5mil into Panache...you must be 'soft in the head'![:o)]

[thereslifeafter87]

quote:Originally posted by nottiger


quote:Originally posted by thereslifeafter87

Profits and cashflow drive share price growth.

FTB has neither.


[?]Has cashflow - growing quite well?[?]

I think we need to ask WHY does a start up raise capital? - Specifically FTB - to spend it on ?????what??????????

Please ........... those are very critical of this innovative start up - [u]WHAT would you spend the dough on?</u>

It has net cash OUTFLOW unless I am sorely mistaken.

You raise cash to exploit target markets you see. However, you need the goal in mind of making a profit ASAP.

The longer you bleed cash, the less likely your chances of eventual success.

Look at companies that have floated on the ASX like FAN, or OCL. These companies start making a profit ASAP to justify the money invested in them.

FTB is still spending almost $2 to make $1. I can do that too! All I have to do is walk down to Queen st with a bunch of $2 coins, and tell people I'll give them a $2 coin so long as they give me a $1 coin back!

[marinesalvor]

But Doc - surely FPH was floated to bring large returns back to the founders??

[The Doctor]

quote:Originally posted by marinesalvor

But Doc - surely FPH was floated to bring large returns back to the founders??




...and it has succeeded...or were they just...'waiting for someone to buy them out'!!!!:D

[marinesalvor]

probably - but luckily for the NZX they hung around and we have a cool company in New Zealand. However - everyone said a whiteware company shouldnt spend the best part of 20 years and millions of dollars trying to break into a market that "big overseas players" already dominated, and saying "theres no profit" etc etc

[Gryffyn]

quote:Originally posted by The Doctor

as if anyone can identify the brand of vodka when its mixed!!![:0]as for FPH...compare 'apples with apples' old chap!Why float it to raise money?...so the principal s/holders like Killen and co reap millions...!!if you think they're going to put $5mil into Panache...you must be 'soft in the head'![:o)]

who else has Manuka-Honey vodka?

[The Doctor]

quote:Originally posted by Gryffyn


quote:Originally posted by The Doctor

as if anyone can identify the brand of vodka when its mixed!!![:0]as for FPH...compare 'apples with apples' old chap!Why float it to raise money?...so the principal s/holders like Killen and co reap millions...!!if you think they're going to put $5mil into Panache...you must be 'soft in the head'![:o)]

who else has Manuka-Honey vodka?


answer---anyone with a bottle of (tasteless,odourless)vodka,a jar of honey and the ability to handle a....'shaker'!!p.s...who else has a 'secret recipe'?:D

[marinesalvor]

yep - just like anyone with caramel, sugar, water and CO2 can make and sell Coca-cola

[barnsley bill]

quote:Originally posted by marinesalvor

yep - just like anyone with caramel, sugar, water and CO2 can make and sell Coca-cola


comparing coca cola to ftb..................
Quick Geoff give this man a job

[marinesalvor]

yes please - am sure the salary will be hugely inflated

[marinesalvor]

actually i would probably compare FTB to Dr Pepper - a long time profitable niche drink that piggy backs off coke - good article in the Harvard Business Review a couple of years ago on the clever positioning of the otherwise weak Dr Pepper

[barnsley bill]

quote:Originally posted by marinesalvor

actually i would probably compare FTB to Dr Pepper - a long time profitable niche drink that piggy backs off coke - good article in the Harvard Business Review a couple of years ago on the clever positioning of the otherwise weak Dr Pepper


tastes like cough medicine with bubbles.....
when are we likely to see some figures from ftb

[marinesalvor]

another week I am guessing...

[GTM 3442]

Yeah, but when all is said and done, it would be nice to see a profit and a dividend. After all, there's only so much interest in waiting for the share price to go up.

[Caesius]

GTM 3442: I think you may be in the wrong investment if that's what you're after; FTB is a high growth company in the initial stages of whatever they are doing. A dividend in the near future? Don't hold your breath. &lt;/my_opinion&gt;

[marinesalvor]

result must be any day now

[GTM 3442]

Thanks Caesius.

So we're sitting there waiting for the SP to go (back) up. I understand now.

[Gryffyn]

Hey MS - congrats on your guru status and keep the 42 below flag flying.

[marinesalvor]

a guru - now thats scary!

[Gryffyn]

on matters Toon at least ;)

[marinesalvor]

well - it was the Toon that pushed me to drink 42B!

still no news from the company for full year..

[The Doctor]

no news from 'Dr Ross' from the 'hyperdome'....is...'bad' news!

[marinesalvor]

right on cue thanks doc - welcome back

[barnsley bill]

back down in the low 50's. stagnant voddie anybody!!
feeble attempts to talk this up have failed so far this year..
when are we getting numbers?

[minimoke]

I think you’ll find Dr Ross has the numbers but he’s taken them to his back shed figuring that with a bit of kiwi ingenuity he can create some thing better. A bit of an additive here, and extra somewhere, backed by a powerful marketing machine he’ll be able to create some numbers that everyone will enjoy.

[marinesalvor]

probably v correct mini

surely he must realise that the delay in news is killing his shares

[barnsley bill]

I think the 42 below balloon has held up very well this year with virtually no hot air blown into it. And with a couple of massive trades below market price as well. Will be interesting to see what happens when the figures are finally ready to see

[marinesalvor]

I presume they have forgotten they were going to announce anything??

[barnsley bill]

announcement on full year now a week beyond announcement date for last year

[minimoke]

Don’t expect anything soon. Here is what a reporter said about new Director David Wright in a Herald article last year:

“The only profile previously published on him - a Canvas cover story in 2003 - describes him as reticent. "Getting answers out of him is as laborious as getting a really bad wine stain out of your favourite cream-coloured wrap-around shirt," the reporter wrote.”

[marinesalvor]

here it comes now

[Bobby_Fischer]

NPAT - 3.29 Million

[Bobby_Fischer]

So only $500K loss in the second half.

[marinesalvor]

its improving... a bit

[Bobby_Fischer]

Yup. But, recalling April's announcement, I don't call $3.29M "markedly" lower than $3.5M. But then, I'm not in marketing.

[marinesalvor]

should be marketed-ly

[minimoke]

Hm. Looking at a “half empty” bottle of vodka results might suggest:
Projected 05/06 sales of 93,000 case equivalent so 5,000 cases shy of target. Demand not as high as anticipated despite falling dollar assistance. Perhaps Premium vodka market is now maxed out.

Approx 1/3rd product demand comes from NZ – are inroads being made into off shore markets?

In Jan 06 they had $12m in assets and $10m in cash but now its at $8.1 in assets and $12.1 in cash. $2m gone in two months.

Premium product revenue figures being smoke screened by Stil Gin, water and RTD products.

Growth will no doubt occur as the second tier products come on stream; after all any sales on a base of zero has to be seen as good. Trouble is, growth here is higher volume lower margin products.

[marinesalvor]

are they lower margin? they would cost less too?

[barnsley bill]

can anybody work out what the how much spent number is if you take out the currency win from turnover??
the number has reduced from 1.80 for 1 buck in rev to 1.37 for 1 buck in rev.
Still bleeding but not as much. What are they spending the money on?
And how much more efficiency can they they wring from increased production?

[barnsley bill]

quote:Originally posted by marinesalvor

are they lower margin? they would cost less too?

other than excise duty why would they cost less?? new product = lower volumes = higher costs would make sense.

[marinesalvor]

because for cheap RTDs they use industrial grade alcohol!

[minimoke]

Immature product = low volumes and high costs (even if it is industrial strength alcohol and water from a tap out the back of the garage in Ponsonby). Mature product = higher volumes, lower costs.

But in a mass market margins are lower due to a greater number of competitors.

So has FTB got its timing right for entering the Water and RTD markets. I suspect they are a bit behind – trend followers not trend creators.

[Bobby_Fischer]

quote:Originally posted by minimoke

Don’t expect anything soon.



Posted 30 minutes before the announcement. MM, I'd like to nominate you for the coveted "ST Oracle of the Week" award.

Where's the Doc? We need some objective analysis ...

[spector]

quote:Originally posted by Bobby_Fischer


quote:Originally posted by minimoke

Don’t expect anything soon.



Posted 30 minutes before the announcement. MM, I'd like to nominate you for the coveted "ST Oracle of the Week" award.

Where's the Doc? We need some objective analysis ...


Where's the Doc with my five grand!?

[marinesalvor]

Doc will be lying low - or rapidly trying to re-register with a new nickname

[Footsie]

I think its actually quite a good result, the key being the last 6 month figures where they had an EBITDA loss of only [250k ]

Which suggests that if that can be improved in the next 6 months to a profit or b/e .......

i would like to hear some fy07 guidance though

[sniper]

Blue skies are over - making money means the market will start pricing FTB on earnings.

[The Doctor]

quote:Originally posted by spector


quote:Originally posted by Bobby_Fischer


quote:Originally posted by minimoke

Don’t expect anything soon.



Posted 30 minutes before the announcement. MM, I'd like to nominate you for the coveted "ST Oracle of the Week" award.

Where's the Doc? We need some objective analysis ...


ah the 'magician' reappears!:Dhave you counted up all the precise figures from 'independent sources yet?...I noticed 42b being unpacked in 6x1ltre cases!!More spin...from GR...if you call this a 'good' result you need to be committed!$1.23m of forex earnings!I was slightly out $1.37 instead of $1.50 to make a 'buck'!WHEN A MAJOR S/H DUMPS 10MILLION SHARES (vote of confidence?)AND THAT DOES NOT COMPUTE...there is NO HOPE ...for 'fools to be'![xx(]

Where's the Doc with my five grand!?

[barnsley bill]

quote:Originally posted by Bobby_Fischer

So only $500K loss in the second half.

the currency win will have been in the second half. take that one time non trading windfall out and the second half loss is over 1.5 million

[barnsley bill]

quote:Originally posted by Footsie

I think its actually quite a good result, the key being the last 6 month figures where they had an EBITDA loss of only [250k ]

Which suggests that if that can be improved in the next 6 months to a profit or b/e .......

i would like to hear some fy07 guidance though


again factor in the forex win and that figure is a lot worse

[DJ Monaco]

quote:Originally posted by barnsley bill

[quote]Originally posted by Footsie

I think its actually quite a good result, the key being the last 6 month figures where they had an EBITDA loss of only [250k ]

Which suggests that if that can be improved in the next 6 months to a profit or b/e .......

i would like to hear some fy07 guidance though


again factor in the forex win and that figure is a lot worse

You need to put this into context. FTB has been trading ever since listing in an environment where the Kiwi $ is high. If the dollar stays low or gets lower these benefits will continue.

[DJ Monaco]

quote:Originally posted by The Doctor


quote:Originally posted by spector


quote:Originally posted by Bobby_Fischer


quote:Originally posted by minimoke

Don’t expect anything soon.



Posted 30 minutes before the announcement. MM, I'd like to nominate you for the coveted "ST Oracle of the Week" award.

Where's the Doc? We need some objective analysis ...


ah the 'magician' reappears!:Dhave you counted up all the precise figures from 'independent sources yet?...I noticed 42b being unpacked in 6x1ltre cases!!More spin...from GR...if you call this a 'good' result you need to be committed!$1.23m of forex earnings!I was slightly out $1.37 instead of $1.50 to make a 'buck'!WHEN A MAJOR S/H DUMPS 10MILLION SHARES (vote of confidence?)AND THAT DOES NOT COMPUTE...there is NO HOPE ...for 'fools to be'![xx(]

Where's the Doc with my five grand!?

Doc, please do some research before you post. It is industy standard to quote in 9 litre cases as a unit of measure. Obviously big bottle packs would have less bottles and small bottle packs would have more. The 9 litre mesure is the way the industry smooths this anaomaly.

[The Doctor]

if my memory serves me...GR was quoting case sales of 42b,referring to the industry 'standard' but of course not defining the actual quantity!So does 42b own 20% of the domestic voddie mkt...or doesn't it???[:o)]well spector...!

[spector]

quote:Originally posted by The Doctor

if my memory serves me...GR was quoting case sales of 42b,referring to the industry 'standard' but of course not defining the actual quantity!So does 42b own 20% of the domestic voddie mkt...or doesn't it???[:o)]well spector...!


Last year Geoff Ross said this in the audited annual report. If you have issue with this being untrue take it up with Deloittes who have stated that the annual report is "free from material misstatements, whether caused by fraud or error". The report was also cleared by 42 Belows lawyers Chapman Tripp.

Since then Geoff Ross has reaffirmed this position to me by private email which I have published on this blog.

Since then 42's output has increased by 58%. Also verified and audited by Deloittes.

So either Deloittes, Chapman Tripp and 42 are in cahoots to actively perjure themselves - or they actually do have 20% of the NZ domestic market.

In return your whole argument is based on "I don't think it's true" - an unsubstantiated opinion held solely by you.

So what is it Doc, is there a high level conspiracy going on here that only you have been smart enough to uncover? Are you an insider in the liquor industry with your finger on the pulse that knows the 'real facts'? Because if you are I'm really surprised that you don't even know that a case sale for auditing purposes is always a 9LEC.

You can't even tell the difference between a major shareholder "dumping shares" and a major shareholder selling shares to another major shareholder.

[The Doctor]

you are 'multi talented' sceptic'...not only a 'magician' but now a 'comedian'...were is the irrefutable evidence that 42below has 20% of thne TOTAL domestic vodka mkt?Increasing sales by 58%?...where..these are facts..GR SAID IN PROFIT BY MAR 2006...did Not DELIVER...you are now a s/holder in a coy that has deviated from its 'core'...line extensions,forex exposures,investment in other coys...the original s/holders have enriched themselves while feeding you naieve 'believers' on ...'spin'...and btw...did I mention you are a shameless FLEA...AND 'WELSHER'!

[spector]

A welsher is someone who refuses to honour a bet which he has lost. In this case it was you Doc who offered the bet - over 6 weeks ago - and since then you have not come up with any evidence to justify yourself. Just poorly constructed rants.

So please, present to us all your evidence that 42 does not own 20% of the domestic vodka market.

Please also present your evidence that the Deloittes audited figure of a 58% increase in 9LEC is false.

And please try and do it in a way that involves logic, sound argument and at least some attempt to spell words correctly.

[shasta]

Whether it has 20% or not, i can tell you in Wellingtons more "upmarket" bars they all have it available & a select few have it as the standard vodka.

Was at a low key bar last night, off courtney place which is using the 42 below vodka range in there cocktails (I had a "Liquid Kate Moss" cocktail).

42 below is certainly having increasingly more exposure in & around Wellington.

Disc: No shares, but like there Vodka w/Passionfruit!

[winner69]

quote:Originally posted by shasta

.... had a "Liquid Kate Moss" cocktail!


I thought Kate was more into Coke

.... talking of Kate I see in the tabloids she has moved from junkie pete and is now shacked up with junkie russell ... maybe she would shack up with winner if he offered her a "Liquid Kate Moss" with 42b

[shasta]

Dont think it had any coke in it :D

Can recall 42 below vodka, jacobs creek bubbles & red bull in it though.

No white powdery substances ...this time ;)

[winner69]

quote:Originally posted by shasta

Dont think it had any coke in it :D

Can recall 42 below vodka, jacobs creek bubbles & red bull in it though.

No white powdery substances ...this time ;)


Great mark up on those things eh ... a bit of that and a bit of that ... shake it all up ... put in a fancy glass ... and how many bucks was it shasta?

[winner69]

Had a Honey Mule at Tupelo ... bit down the road from Courtenay Place

That was 42B manuka with ginger beer ... now thats class

[shasta]

Um $12 in a champagne flute, but my boss paid for it so all good!

Tupelo is down by Vivo Wine Bar right?

[winner69]

quote:Originally posted by shasta

Um $12 in a champagne flute, but my boss paid for it so all good!

Tupelo is down by Vivo Wine Bar right?


Yep ... almost next door .... nice food there

[shasta]

Was at Matterhorn for dinner last night, great food there.

Thou i do love the wine @ Vivo [:p]

[The Doctor]

quote:Originally posted by spector

A welsher is someone who refuses to honour a bet which he has lost. In this case it was you Doc who offered the bet - over 6 weeks ago - and since then you have not come up with any evidence to justify yourself. Just poorly constructed rants.

So please, present to us all your evidence that 42 does not own 20% of the domestic vodka market.

Please also present your evidence that the Deloittes audited figure of a 58% increase in 9LEC is false.

And please try and do it in a way that involves logic, sound argument and at least some attempt to spell words correctly.

sufferring from 'selective amnesia' as well spector!...you 'offerred' the bet!...and then ran away to compile independent corroboration of GR 'SPIN'....this coy has been pushing volume discounts on Stil Vodka in the last quarter ,to increase sales revenue.The 42b 'fad' factor is fading as fashion accessories tend to,and this coy will NEVER deliver a commercial ROI ,at least in its present form.

[DJ Monaco]

quote:Originally posted by The Doctor


quote:Originally posted by spector

A welsher is someone who refuses to honour a bet which he has lost. In this case it was you Doc who offered the bet - over 6 weeks ago - and since then you have not come up with any evidence to justify yourself. Just poorly constructed rants.

So please, present to us all your evidence that 42 does not own 20% of the domestic vodka market.

Please also present your evidence that the Deloittes audited figure of a 58% increase in 9LEC is false.

And please try and do it in a way that involves logic, sound argument and at least some attempt to spell words correctly.

sufferring from 'selective amnesia' as well spector!...you 'offerred' the bet!...and then ran away to compile independent corroboration of GR 'SPIN'....this coy has been pushing volume discounts on Stil Vodka in the last quarter ,to increase sales revenue.The 42b 'fad' factor is fading as fashion accessories tend to,and this coy will NEVER deliver a commercial ROI ,at least in its present form.
So in your opinion the only growth FTB had this year relates to sales of Stil vodka in NZ????

[spector]

Posted by you Doc on 9/03/2006

"I will bet anyone, 42b DOES NOT OWN 20% of the total domestic Vodka mkt"

I think the selective amnesia may be your own.

We are all awaiting your evidence to counter the Deloittes audited reports with baited breath.

I also see you are now arguing that 42 has been selling lots of STIL to increase their market share even further. This is probably true, but I would suggest not terribly helpful to your position.

[The Doctor]

quote:Originally posted by spector

Excellent. Finally Doc puts his money where his mouth is. I'll take on your bet for 5k.

The information about 42 owning 20% of the total domestic vodka market was in their 2005 end of year report.

Why don't you contact the securities commission to check up on it. Should be relatively simple.

Don't back out on me Doc, I'd hate for this to be one of your wild statements like:

"the market leaders are going to crush 42" which got changed to "the market leaders are not going to bother crushing 42 because they are unimportant" two posts later.

note the date of this original post and the ref to mar 05 re 20%...after turning cartwheels because GR emailed you ,you stated you would find independent sources to verify this 20% claim...now you retreat to coy propaganda.Various posters have 'enlightened' you as to seasonal variation in consumption..taking the best 3 mths and multiplying by 4 DOES NOT GIVE A TRUE INDICATION OF ACTUAL MKT SHARE.As usual spin dr Ross is very vague on his basis for claiming 20%!

[barnsley bill]

quote:Originally posted by The Doctor


quote:Originally posted by spector

Excellent. Finally Doc puts his money where his mouth is. I'll take on your bet for 5k.

The information about 42 owning 20% of the total domestic vodka market was in their 2005 end of year report.

Why don't you contact the securities commission to check up on it. Should be relatively simple.

Don't back out on me Doc, I'd hate for this to be one of your wild statements like:

"the market leaders are going to crush 42" which got changed to "the market leaders are not going to bother crushing 42 because they are unimportant" two posts later.

note the date of this original post and the ref to mar 05 re 20%...after turning cartwheels because GR emailed you ,you stated you would find independent sources to verify this 20% claim...now you retreat to coy propaganda.Various posters have 'enlightened' you as to seasonal variation in consumption..taking the best 3 mths and multiplying by 4 DOES NOT GIVE A TRUE INDICATION OF ACTUAL MKT SHARE.As usual spin dr Ross is very vague on his basis for claiming 20%!


well said.
A better way to get to the bottom of market share than relying on untested statements by GR is to pop down to your bottle shop.
I have asked 3 different shops with what you might assume wildly different demographics and have received similar feedback in all 3.
namely they would sell 30 to 40 bottles of vodka for every 1 42B
with smirnoff representing around 50% off all voddie sales.
one shop in kaikohe, one in kerikeri and my local in waipapa.
They may well have a significant marketshare of the so called super premium but 20% of vodka market..... NO WAY.
This research is more honest and scientific than anything else written on this thread.
Why don't you all ask the staff next time you pop in to buy some grog.

We can argue marketshare all day but the simple fact is that a dollar fifty spent for a dollar of revenue is bad business and yes i have factored back in the forex windfall to get a buck fity because they are not currency traders......... Yet.
Those of you that talk about building a brand clearly are living a fantasy. Where is the advertising..... smart viral emails and PR is not eating all the money so what is?

[marinesalvor]

kaikohe, kerikeri and waipapa?? hardly premium vodka markets - more like industrial ethanol markets for the teens!

[Gryffyn]

The advertising is in mainly in magazines which are bought and read by the target demographic. Also o'seas ads and various live promos like at Queenstown the other year which got on tv....

[barnsley bill]

quote:Originally posted by marinesalvor

kaikohe, kerikeri and waipapa?? hardly premium vodka markets - more like industrial ethanol markets for the teens!


Been to Kerikeri lately....
Parnell North
My point was all we have seen is spin, no hard figures other than reported losses.

[marinesalvor]

yep - lots of time in keri - and the teens still drinking ethanol

premium market - wellington urban professionals, not unemployed northland teens!

[barnsley bill]

quote:Originally posted by marinesalvor

yep - lots of time in keri - and the teens still drinking ethanol

premium market - wellington urban professionals, not unemployed northland teens!


just try asking your local bottle shop!

And I think you are being a bit hard on Keri, we shifted up here before xmas and were amazed at the wealth in the area. Definately not typical of Northland. Property prices have kept pace with Auckland, every road out of town has multiple letterboxes on every driveway and the money being spent on building is incredible. The marina is full and scAir new Zealand is cleeaning up.
Ther are over 70 real estate agents in Keri alone!

[marinesalvor]

main market is americans trying to buy lifestyle blocks - most of them buy their alcohol duty free! and I bet they buy premium brands!

I have seen how Independent Liquor make their vodka - pour out industrial alcohol in bulk and pipette in a "flavour" its also how they make "rum" and "bourbon"!

[The Doctor]

and how do 42b make it?Supposedly they started making it in a 'garage' from a 'secret recipe'...now they have no production facilities ,and have contract suppliers of all stages of production and distribution...effectively they own newly created brands and rely on 'spin' to sooth the investors who now own shares in a coy that bears no resemblance to the original 'raison d'etre'!There is nothing unique about 42b at all except their ability to turn $1.50 into a $1 and not be 'called'!

[marinesalvor]

thanks doc

[spector]

quote:Originally posted by The Doctor


quote:Originally posted by spector

Excellent. Finally Doc puts his money where his mouth is. I'll take on your bet for 5k.

The information about 42 owning 20% of the total domestic vodka market was in their 2005 end of year report.

Why don't you contact the securities commission to check up on it. Should be relatively simple.

Don't back out on me Doc, I'd hate for this to be one of your wild statements like:

"the market leaders are going to crush 42" which got changed to "the market leaders are not going to bother crushing 42 because they are unimportant" two posts later.

note the date of this original post and the ref to mar 05 re 20%...after turning cartwheels because GR emailed you ,you stated you would find independent sources to verify this 20% claim...now you retreat to coy propaganda.Various posters have 'enlightened' you as to seasonal variation in consumption..taking the best 3 mths and multiplying by 4 DOES NOT GIVE A TRUE INDICATION OF ACTUAL MKT SHARE.As usual spin dr Ross is very vague on his basis for claiming 20%!



Oh I see, so in your view the opinions of 'various posters' is gospel, but the actual audit done by Deloitte on the 42 end of year report has no truth in it what-so-ever. If this is indeed the case then once again I invite you to make a complaint to the Securities Commission and say that you have discovered dishonesty and fraudulent practices in the end of year report. I'll even give you the address of the person to contact. His name is John Murly and his DDI is 04 471 7667. He looks after Market Manipulation and would probably love to take a high flying company like 42 to task. I will accept his findings as proof.

However, John may ask you why you think 42 doesn't have 20% of the market - and he may also ask you why you think the latest 58% sales growth figure is untrue. So even if you have no answers for us, you should probably organise some for him.

[spector]

[/quote]
The 42b 'fad' factor is fading as fashion accessories tend to,and this coy will NEVER deliver a commercial ROI ,at least in its present form.
[/quote]

Also congratulations Doc on finally understanding that 42 is a fashion brand, this is a big step forward for you. However calling 42b a 'fad' might not be so on the money. Generally speaking 'fading fads' tend not to consistently deliver increased growth.

[minimoke]

Also of concern should be the margin slippage. Last year FTB were making $219.27 a case. Now its down to $193.70 a case excluding the FX gains.

That’s $25 a case or a couple of bucks a bottle gone.

So is growth coming from increased demand for a premium product or on the back of a cheaper product?

[DJ Monaco]

quote:Originally posted by The Doctor

and how do 42b make it?Supposedly they started making it in a 'garage' from a 'secret recipe'...now they have no production facilities ,and have contract suppliers of all stages of production and distribution...effectively they own newly created brands and rely on 'spin' to sooth the investors who now own shares in a coy that bears no resemblance to the original 'raison d'etre'!There is nothing unique about 42b at all except their ability to turn $1.50 into a $1 and not be 'called'!
So you didn't notice that revenue has grown from $500k at listing to $17.5m a couple of years later??
Also of interest is that the 90 odd thousand 9 litre cases translates to about 1.08 m bottles. If 40% of FTB's business is in NZ that would be 430,000 bottles sold in NZ. If Smirnoff sold at 50 to 1 vs 42 Below in NZ they would need to sell 21m bottles. An unlikely scenario. I would suggest the place for an anecdotal check of FTB's success or otherwise would be a duty free outlet at Auckland airport, rather than the Far North. Whatever anyones view now, the annual report will probably have to segment revenue and case sales so all will be revealed then.
Finally Doc, it seems a lttle unreasonable to keep implying that everything in FTB is spin and lies. If it was, wouldn't they have been caught out by someone like Deloitte, the Securities Commision, the Commerce Commission etc.

[DJ Monaco]

quote:Originally posted by minimoke

Also of concern should be the margin slippage. Last year FTB were making $219.27 a case. Now its down to $193.70 a case excluding the FX gains.

That’s $25 a case or a couple of bucks a bottle gone.

So is growth coming from increased demand for a premium product or on the back of a cheaper product?

FX gains are margin

[minimoke]

If you are looking at a long term trend. FTB were making
$23 a bottle in 2003
$20.10 in 2004
$18.87 in 2005
And now $16.08


Source: Geoff Ross August 05 Annual Meeting speech.
Revenue 2003 $500,000 - Sales this year
Revenue 2004 $4.7 million
Revenue 2005 $12.58 million


Sales 2003 21,600 bottles (In 11 months prior to listing)
Sales 2004 233,772 bottles
Sales 2005 666,564 bottles
(Sales are in 750 ml bottle equivalents)

[DJ Monaco]

quote:Originally posted by minimoke

If you are looking at a long term trend. FTB were making
$23 a bottle in 2003
$20.10 in 2004
$18.87 in 2005
And now $16.08


Source: Geoff Ross August 05 Annual Meeting speech.
Revenue 2003 $500,000 - Sales this year
Revenue 2004 $4.7 million
Revenue 2005 $12.58 million


Sales 2003 21,600 bottles (In 11 months prior to listing)
Sales 2004 233,772 bottles
Sales 2005 666,564 bottles
(Sales are in 750 ml bottle equivalents)

How are you working out your margin calculation? Also, why did you leave 2006 out of your revenue and bottle sales numbers?

[The Doctor]

who has ever been 'caught out' by the sec com,com com and by the auditors they pay to audit their accounts with info supplied to them?Deloittes audit revenue and expenses,I'm sure they don't undertake investigation to verify 42B has 20% of the domestic vodka mkt...or do you think they did?What case sizes does 42 b get packed for delivery in?The ones I have seen contain 6 btls...how is the 9 lt case rate measured ?750ml x 12 -9 litres...18x 500ml - 9 litres..perhaps spector can 'go weak at the knees again' and email spin Dr Ross for clarification...btw was the volume,discounted brand Stil being sold in the year to Mar 05 when the 20% mkt share was boldly claimed?

[minimoke]

For example in 2005 revenue was $12.58m and they sold 666,564 bottles so this is $18.87 a bottle.

2006 gets a bit more complicated because the figures are in litre case sales – but here goes:
Made $17.03m and sold 1,054,992 bottles (87,916 9x1 litre cases = 791,244 1 litre bottles or 1,054,992 750ml bottles) which equals $16 per 750ml bottle

[marinesalvor]

mini - read again - apples with apples - my reading is that "per bottle" wont help you as there are a number of bottle sizes, eg 420 water or 1150ml spirits - you are trying to average across water and spirits

[The Doctor]

some simple arithmetic....GR believes the domestic vodka mkt to be 'around 160,000' 9 lt cases per annum.....42B sales for 05 year(claiming the 20%)...666,564(750ml)divide by 12 to get 9 lt cases....55,547 cases....as 32,000 is 20% of 160,000 cases...YOU ARE TELLING ME ...THEY SOLD ONLY 23,574 CASES IN THE WHOLE OF THE REST OF THE WORLD!!!!.....Lets hear it for spector!![:p]

[minimoke]

quote:Originally posted by marinesalvor

mini - read again - apples with apples - my reading is that "per bottle" wont help you as there are a number of bottle sizes, eg 420 water or 1150ml spirits - you are trying to average across water and spirits

I thought FTB's latest announcement excludes Water and previous figures would have only included Vodka/Gin.

I've tried to do the apples/apples by using FTB figures and also converting the industry standard of 9 x 1 litre bottle cases to whatever bottles sizes FTB have been giving in their announcements.

While I think I have excluded the Water and RTD’s it would be interesting to see how the Forty Two Below, and Stil Vodka sales were going as well as the South Gin sales.

[marinesalvor]

I guess someone needs to do calcs per litre for each type of liquid!

[The Doctor]

hell if that 666,564 bottles figure isn't just for vodka...its time for SPECTOR TO VANISH....AGAIN!!![^]

[minimoke]

quote:Originally posted by The Doctor

hell if that 666,564 bottles figure isn't just for vodka...its time for SPECTOR TO VANISH....AGAIN!!![^]

TD – I think the figure you need is 87,916 Nine Litre Equivalent cases as this is for YE2006.

Trying to get your vodka case figures is going to be a bit harder as I take it that this figure includes all spirits but no water or RTD’s.

You might find that FTB and Stil vodkas together get to the 20% total market figure - but I can’t see as this would mean that the other major brands like Wyborowa, Stolichnaya, Smirnoff, Absolut, Cossack, Gordons, Vladivar and Finlandia average only 10% of the market each.

[minimoke]

If you want a bit of history go back to 1997 when vodka case sales were at 123,324 Smirnoff, Cossak, Gordon’s and Stolichnaya appear to have had a little over 40% of the market while Absolut, Finlandia, and Vladivar had “no less than in the order of a 15% market share.”. Rats and mice brands had the other 10-15% and this was before FTB. Ref: Commerce Commission decision 306.

These huge brands on their own couldn't muster 20% of market share back then.

Since then total spirit supply went up 1.299m litres from 9.653m litres in 1997 to 10.952 litres in 2005 with vodka probably accounting for 10 -15% of the market for spirits.

So the vodka market probably went up around 120,000 to 195,000 litres. Say at 150,000 litres, this is 16,666 nine litre cases.

So at FTB’ss asserted figures of 32,000 cases making up 20% of the NZ market they would have needed to have taken up all the increased annual vodka consumption since 1997 plus knocked off all the rats and mice players leaving the major brands with their market share reduced as a proportion of the increased supply. A likely scenario??

[The Doctor]

quote:Originally posted by The Doctor

some simple arithmetic....GR believes the domestic vodka mkt to be 'around 160,000' 9 lt cases per annum.....42B sales for 05 year(claiming the 20%)...666,564(750ml)divide by 12 to get 9 lt cases....55,547 cases....as 32,000 is 20% of 160,000 cases...YOU ARE TELLING ME ...THEY SOLD ONLY 23,574 CASES IN THE WHOLE OF THE REST OF THE WORLD!!!!.....Lets hear it for spector!![:p]


and DJ Monaco tells us 40% of sales are made in NZ!!...DOES NOT COMPUTE...[xx(]

[spector]

quote:Originally posted by The Doctor

who has ever been 'caught out' by the sec com,com com and by the auditors they pay to audit their accounts with info supplied to them?Deloittes audit revenue and expenses,I'm sure they don't undertake investigation to verify 42B has 20% of the domestic vodka mkt...or do you think they did?What case sizes does 42 b get packed for delivery in?The ones I have seen contain 6 btls...how is the 9 lt case rate measured ?750ml x 12 -9 litres...18x 500ml - 9 litres..perhaps spector can 'go weak at the knees again' and email spin Dr Ross for clarification...btw was the volume,discounted brand Stil being sold in the year to Mar 05 when the 20% mkt share was boldly claimed?


So let me get this straight Doc, according to you not only are Deloittes not responsible for making sure the annual reports it works on are financially accurate – But the Securities Commission is not capable or willing to do anything about Market Manipulation even though they have a whole division dedicated to it? Jeepers Doc you’ve uncovered a massive scandal! You’ll probably be on the news! A genius!

So it’s really strange that despite uncovering a huge waste of government funding you still can’t get your head around what a 9 LEC is.

So here we go once again, a 9LEC (9 Litre Equivalent Case) is a unit of measurement. One 9LEC contains nine litres. So if you had sold two 9LEC cases you would have sold 18 litres – because if you get your calculator out you will see that 2 x 9 = 18. Are you still with me Doc?

I know you’ve seen 42 Below come in different size bottles and different size boxes and this confuses you. But if you can just stay with me Doc and imagine a huge swimming pool we can go through this together.

Imagine this swimming pool Doc, it’s very big isn’t it, and it’s full of all the vodka that 42 Below has sold during one year. A little man is sitting at the end of the pool with a red bucket. His red bucket can hold 9 litres. The little man puts his red bucket in the pool, fills it up, pulls it out and then then puts it on a very big shelf.

This red bucket is one 9LEC case. It’s one unit of measurement that contains nine litres. Are you still with me Doc?

Now let’s say the little man goes off and gets more red buckets and continues to draw vodka out of the huge swimming pool until there’s no more vodka left – instead there’s just a huge shelf filled with red buckets full of vodka.

If we count up all these buckets we can find out how much alcohol 42 Below has sold during the year. Look! There’s 87,916 of them!

[spector]

quote:Originally posted by The Doctor

some simple arithmetic....GR believes the domestic vodka mkt to be 'around 160,000' 9 lt cases per annum.....42B sales for 05 year(claiming the 20%)...666,564(750ml)divide by 12 to get 9 lt cases....55,547 cases....as 32,000 is 20% of 160,000 cases...YOU ARE TELLING ME ...THEY SOLD ONLY 23,574 CASES IN THE WHOLE OF THE REST OF THE WORLD!!!!.....Lets hear it for spector!![:p]



Believe it or not Doc, I have no bitterness against you and don’t actively set out to make you look foolish – but you just continue to set yourself up.

In the 42 Below Annual Report that came out in March 2005 Geoff Ross said “After three years investment in the New Zealand market we have built the business up close to a 20% volume share (more by value) of the total New Zealand Vodka Market, estimated at 150,000 cases.”

So in March 2005, at the end of the financial year, Geoff Ross claimed the company had reached a point where it had acquired 20% of the market. He made this claim at the end of the 2004/05 financial year – which we also call the start of the 2005/06 financial year.

Your ‘simple arithmetic’ is from the wrong year Doc. You have to calculate from the point after Geoff Ross said he had 20% of the vodka market, not a year before he said it.

You need to replace your 55,547 cases with 87,916 cases.

[spector]

quote:Originally posted by The Doctor


quote:Originally posted by The Doctor

some simple arithmetic....GR believes the domestic vodka mkt to be 'around 160,000' 9 lt cases per annum.....42B sales for 05 year(claiming the 20%)...666,564(750ml)divide by 12 to get 9 lt cases....55,547 cases....as 32,000 is 20% of 160,000 cases...YOU ARE TELLING ME ...THEY SOLD ONLY 23,574 CASES IN THE WHOLE OF THE REST OF THE WORLD!!!!.....Lets hear it for spector!![:p]


and DJ Monaco tells us 40% of sales are made in NZ!!...DOES NOT COMPUTE...[xx(]


40% of 87,916 9-litre equivalent cases = 35,166.4 cases.

[minimoke]

quote:Originally posted by spector
So let me get this straight Doc, according to you not only are Deloittes not responsible for making sure the annual reports it works on are financially accurate – But the Securities Commission is not capable or willing to do anything about Market Manipulation even though they have a whole division dedicated to it?

Spector
An Auditor on this Forum will be able to provide better guidance but my understanding is that the Auditors job is to check the financial statements presented to them by the Board of Directors for anything in those financial statements that might be grossly and materially wrong.

So if the Board of FTB says they have 20% of a market such a fact may not be picked up in an audit because it may not relate to the financial performance of the company. If on the other hand the company said that $5m in revenue came from NZ and $12m came from offshore the Auditor would be expected to check that this figure was materially correct. The auditor is checking the financial position of the company through proper accounting records – not its Market position – though I guess you could ask for a separate independent audit of such views.

I would also imagine that the Commerce Commission would be unlikely to investigate a claim which could be puffery or exaggeration unless it was likely to create an unfair market advantage. Having a supposed 20% of a Market is probably not big enough to raise concerns but if FTB were to claim 40% of a market then the Commission might be more inclined to check things out.

At the end of the day does it really matter (except for the $5 grand stake)? FTB should be congratulated for getting as much product as it does to market – they have made huge gains over the years. Investors should look behind these figures to see if there is truly anything to give them either a dividend yield or capital growth. Investors should have enough information to determine if the information in the market is smoke and mirrors or is it truly reliable information on which a proper investment decision could be made.

[The Doctor]

spector is adopting the m.o of his guru GR[:o)] NOW!160,000CASES HAS SHRUNK TO 150,000 ,and the announcement of 20% of the mkt referred to the COMING YEAR!Go to page 65 of this thread and refresh your memory spector...stop fudging and twisting...oh and don't fall into that ..'pool'!;)

[Bubble Boy]

quote:Originally posted by minimoke

they have made huge gains over the years.



One assumes you are not talking about the share price.

[BRICKS]

quote:Originally posted by Bubble Boy


quote:Originally posted by minimoke

they have made huge gains over the years.



One assumes you are not talking about the share price.


DONT get carried away boys just been to USA local and biggest chain ABC ,, and bugger me NO 42 but a whole wall [BIG] of current brands that you can BUY in NZ where on show at good prices this LOSS maker will not go on for EVER.. [8D]

TRY Donnald Trump vodka he gives it away for FREE.. [8D]

[minimoke]

quote:Originally posted by BRICKS
DONT get carried away boys just been to USA local and biggest chain ABC ,, and bugger me NO 42 but a whole wall [BIG] of current brands that you can BUY in NZ where on show at good prices this LOSS maker will not go on for EVER..


No surprise there really. If FTB has production geared to meet 20% of the NZ market it doesn’t leave a lot to go to all its offshore markets.

If ABC are big they are probably wanting someone who can supply in hundreds of thousands of case lots, not a few cases here, a few cases there. American consumption is something like 44 million 9 litre cases so FTB would be no more than the head of a pimple on an elephants bum.

[Gryffyn]

quote:Originally posted by BRICKS


quote:Originally posted by Bubble Boy


quote:Originally posted by minimoke

they have made huge gains over the years.



One assumes you are not talking about the share price.


DONT get carried away boys just been to USA local and biggest chain ABC ,, and bugger me NO 42 but a whole wall [BIG] of current brands that you can BUY in NZ where on show at good prices this LOSS maker will not go on for EVER.. [8D]

TRY Donnald Trump vodka he gives it away for FREE.. [8D]

Ever think that you might not be the target market? This may carry to the chains you shop at. Not having a go - but US big big market.

[BRICKS]

quote:Originally posted by Gryffyn


quote:Originally posted by BRICKS


quote:Originally posted by Bubble Boy


quote:Originally posted by minimoke

they have made huge gains over the years.



One assumes you are not talking about the share price.


DONT get carried away boys just been to USA local and biggest chain ABC ,, and bugger me NO 42 but a whole wall [BIG] of current brands that you can BUY in NZ where on show at good prices this LOSS maker will not go on for EVER.. [8D]

TRY Donnald Trump vodka he gives it away for FREE.. [8D]

Ever think that you might not be the target market? This may carry to the chains you shop at. Not having a go - but US big big market.


SORRY bud but do not know what your saying as there is too much here already who is worried about NZ they dont even know where AUSTRALIA is so 42 bite your BUM.. [8D]

[The Doctor]

quote:Originally posted by spector

And once again you fall back into repeating your twin mantras of “FTBelow is the cruel joke of an adman spinning a web that will only catch the gullible” and that 42 is going to get taken out by “an incumbent market leader launching a full frontal assault”. Doc, you’ve been saying this stuff over and over for the last two years!

Exactly when is Geoff Ross going to run off with all our money? Because he seems to be taking his time about it, If I was him I would have done it when the share price was hig

And who is the incumbent market leader brand that’s going to destroy 42 with a full frontal assault? This time last year 42 below already owned 20% of the total NZ vodka market – which includes Absolut, Smirnoff, Stoly, Vladivar, Grey Goose, and about 30 other vodkas. By now they probably own more. When will Absolut decide that it’s time to crush 42? In two years time when 42 owns 50% of the market, or 60%?

When 42 announced in it’s 2005 end of year report that it had sold a million bottles of vodka/gin that year do you think they made it up Doc?

Jeepers, I don’t mind someone having a different opinion to mine – but it’s silly to try and argue a point without having facts to back up your argument.



in your own words ...spector...'this time last yr (07-03-05)42b already owned 20% of the vodka mkt'.....ONLY PERSON LOOKING FOOLISH SPECTOR IS YOU IF YOU GOT IT WRONG OR YOU IF I GOT IT RIGHT!!![:p]

[danchop]

the sp is definately losing its punch

[spector]

quote:Originally posted by The Doctor


quote:Originally posted by spector

And once again you fall back into repeating your twin mantras of “FTBelow is the cruel joke of an adman spinning a web that will only catch the gullible” and that 42 is going to get taken out by “an incumbent market leader launching a full frontal assault”. Doc, you’ve been saying this stuff over and over for the last two years!

Exactly when is Geoff Ross going to run off with all our money? Because he seems to be taking his time about it, If I was him I would have done it when the share price was hig

And who is the incumbent market leader brand that’s going to destroy 42 with a full frontal assault? This time last year 42 below already owned 20% of the total NZ vodka market – which includes Absolut, Smirnoff, Stoly, Vladivar, Grey Goose, and about 30 other vodkas. By now they probably own more. When will Absolut decide that it’s time to crush 42? In two years time when 42 owns 50% of the market, or 60%?

When 42 announced in it’s 2005 end of year report that it had sold a million bottles of vodka/gin that year do you think they made it up Doc?

Jeepers, I don’t mind someone having a different opinion to mine – but it’s silly to try and argue a point without having facts to back up your argument.



in your own words ...spector...'this time last yr (07-03-05)42b already owned 20% of the vodka mkt'.....ONLY PERSON LOOKING FOOLISH SPECTOR IS YOU IF YOU GOT IT WRONG OR YOU IF I GOT IT RIGHT!!![:p]



*sigh*

Ok Doc, once again I’ll try and explain this as simply as possible so you can understand.

In March 2005 42b said they now held 20% of the market. Geoff Ross later confirmed to us in an email from March 2006 that 42b still held at least 20% of the market. So we now know that 42b is claiming 20% of the market between these two dates.

Ok? Are you still with me?

Now when we want to find out financial and sales figures for the period between the end of March 2005 and end of March 2006 it’s standard practice to look at the financial and sales records from the period that is conveniently called something like, oh I don’t know, ummm… “financial and sales records March 2005-March 2006”.

Yes I said that 42 had 20% of the market in March 2005. Your response is to argue that they don’t by using figures from before March 2005?! And for some reason you think I’m the one looking foolish.

You’re not very good at this are you Doc?

[The Doctor]

you're getting good at 'fudging' the issue....who was right ,at the time I said 'I BET THEY DON'T OWN 20% OF THE TOTAL DOMESTIC VODKA MKT'.....quite clearly ...I was...you have painted yourself into a corner...read pages 63-65 of this thread....and weep!!

[The Doctor]

quote:Originally posted by minimoke

The Distillers Association reckons there is around 175,000 cases of Vodka sold in NZ. FTB reckon they produced 39,000 cases for half year and projected full year of 93,000 cases. So how much of their product is exported? If you know this then you can figure out their NZ market share!




do the %'s on these figures...Einstein!;)

[lanenz]

Looks like everyone is try to play around with figures, including Geoff Ross. I wonder if someone would buy into the arguement if the sales of turkeys was used. EG 400,000 turkeys sold in NZ pa and a company claimed it sold 20,000 turkeys for the Dec quarter. Could they be justified in claiming they had 20% of the market share?

Going by TD lat post re from minimoke. Cases produced dont neccesary mean cases sold, far from it actually.

[minimoke]

As for diversification FTB are getting into medicinal’s.

Try their Manuka Honey Vodka and this is what Wallys Wines reckon you will get: “Manuka Honey is a unique New Zealand treasure, which has many medicinal properties, including healing burns and helping to fight the winter flu. Together with lemons and warm water, this is a fantastic way to ward of the cold weather blues!”

So who is your target market here? Hip young high income New Yorkers or runny nose old buggers.


And “Wallys Wines” ???? Is this the name of someone who is going to sell a Super Premium vodka for you?

[lanenz]

I like that. The idea of getting sick is that you are able to get pst to feel better. Come to think of it many of my friends use any type of alcohol to get pst to feel better.

[minimoke]

As a service to FTB shareholders who are looking at attending the AGM the following might be of interest. This is commonly known as the “Nose Tell”.

“One gesture that reveals a lie is the "mouth-cover". When this happens, it's as if the liar is taking precautions to cover up the source of their deception, acting on the assumption that if other people can't see their mouth then they won't know where the lie has come from. Mouth-covering actions can range from full-blown versions where the hand completely covers the mouth, to gestures where the hand supports the chin and a finger surreptitiously touches the corner of the mouth.

There is, however, a substitute for touching the mouth, which is touching the nose. By touching their nose, the liar experiences the momentary comfort of covering his mouth, without any risk of drawing attention to what they are really doing. In this role, nose-touching functions as a substitute for mouth-covering. It's a stealth tell - it looks as if someone is scratching their nose, but their real intention is to cover the mouth.”

Now for today’s challenge. Check out last years AGM video on the FTB website and count the number of times GR goes for the nose. Is it that he has been sniffing too much of the product; needs new glasses or is there something else more sinister?

If you would like a comparison Bill Clinton went for the nose around once every four minutes while giving testimony at the “We did not have Sexual relations” grand jury testimony.

[BRICKS]

WHAT has this got to do selling Bloody vodka that NO body BUY`s and is
broke pity the HOLDERS.. [8D]

[Futurz]

quote:Originally posted by BRICKS

WHAT has this got to do selling Bloody vodka that NO body BUY`s and is
broke pity the HOLDERS.. [8D]


Maybe not for old Queens like you KING [8D][8D][8D]

But head to any downtown bar around NZ and you'll see just how popular it is [8D]

Stick to what you know, sipping your G & T's and shopping at PPG [8D][8D][8D]

[spector]

quote:Originally posted by The Doctor

you're getting good at 'fudging' the issue....who was right ,at the time I said 'I BET THEY DON'T OWN 20% OF THE TOTAL DOMESTIC VODKA MKT'.....quite clearly ...I was...you have painted yourself into a corner...read pages 63-65 of this thread....and weep!!


Doc, we’re still talking about exactly the same thing, so let’s go through it again.

At the end of March 2005 42b claimed 20% of the market locally. OK, March 2005.

IN December 2004 they may have had 16%. In January 2005 they may have had 18%. But by March 2005 they had 20%.

So the only figures we can use to find out if this March 2005 claim is true are the figures for the month of March 2005. The figures we can use to show that they still have 20% of the market a year later are the ones from April 2005 to March 2006.

OK.

So if the Distillers Association estimates the number of 9LEC cases sold last year to be 175,000. – 20% of this is 35,000 9LEC cases.

OK.

We know that 42b shifted 87,916 9LEC cases last year and there is an assumption that they sold 40% of product locally (although I don’t know where this figure comes from). – 40% of 87,916 9LEC cases is 35,166 9LEC cases.

So we now know that 42 has owned 20% of the market for all the months from April 2005 to March 2006. This financial period started the day after GR said they owned 20% of the market.

The only thing we don’t know is how accurate the 40% figure is.

[lanenz]

minimoke.

I took the liberty in looking at the AGM video regarding GR.

You are totally correct on number 2...He needs new glasses. There is a big difference in a light wipe of the index finger or thumb across the tip of you nose and a purpose push of the glasses.

If you want to know about body language then an easy read by the good ol aussie bloke Allan Pease.

It is a good tool to have especially when you are in negotiations. ;)

FYI. The average guy is oblivious to body language. Woman eat men hands down in this area.

Maybe this AGM you will see him wearing contacts.

[spector]

Sorry to bore everyone with the pointless argument between myself and Doc. The 20% of the NZ thing aside, I really would like to see 42 expanding more internationally... even I will admit that there is no future in this company if it just revolves around NZ. 42 needs to keep pushing into Australia and Britain and keep the year on year growth continuing exponentially.

[BRICKS]

quote:Originally posted by Futurz


quote:Originally posted by BRICKS

WHAT has this got to do selling Bloody vodka that NO body BUY`s and is
broke pity the HOLDERS.. [8D]


Maybe not for old Queens like you KING [8D][8D][8D]

But head to any downtown bar around NZ and you'll see just how popular it is [8D]

Stick to what you know, sipping your G & T's and shopping at PPG [8D][8D][8D]


YOU must be drinking it now as your very wrong with above statement.. MATE.. [8D]

[BRICKS]

says ITS A dud.. [8D]

[The Doctor]

quote:Originally posted by spector


quote:Originally posted by The Doctor

you're getting good at 'fudging' the issue....who was right ,at the time I said 'I BET THEY DON'T OWN 20% OF THE TOTAL DOMESTIC VODKA MKT'.....quite clearly ...I was...you have painted yourself into a corner...read pages 63-65 of this thread....and weep!!


Doc, we’re still talking about exactly the same thing, so let’s go through it again.

At the end of March 2005 42b claimed 20% of the market locally. OK, March 2005.

IN December 2004 they may have had 16%. In January 2005 they may have had 18%. But by March 2005 they had 20%.

So the only figures we can use to find out if this March 2005 claim is true are the figures for the month of March 2005. The figures we can use to show that they still have 20% of the market a year later are the ones from April 2005 to March 2006.

OK.

So if the Distillers Association estimates the number of 9LEC cases sold last year to be 175,000. – 20% of this is 35,000 9LEC cases.

OK.

We know that 42b shifted 87,916 9LEC cases last year and there is an assumption that they sold 40% of product locally (although I don’t know where this figure comes from). – 40% of 87,916 9LEC cases is 35,166 9LEC cases.

So we now know that 42 has owned 20% of the market for all the months from April 2005 to March 2006. This financial period started the day after GR said they owned 20% of the market.

The only thing we don’t know is how accurate the 40% figure is.


SOME of us know the difference between PRODUCED and SOLD though!!
Anyway within about 18mths ,after CHA doesn't meet projections some 'marriage' will occur with 42b...'a broad based beverage coy with obvious synergies...blah,blah, blah!'Some very happy major principals ,have done well out of these 2 horrors.

[Toddy]

Only five months to go and the warrant holders are still really bullish predicting a massive 15% rise in the heads!

[Futurz]

quote:Originally posted by BRICKS


quote:Originally posted by Futurz


quote:Originally posted by BRICKS

WHAT has this got to do selling Bloody vodka that NO body BUY`s and is
broke pity the HOLDERS.. [8D]


Maybe not for old Queens like you KING [8D][8D][8D]

But head to any downtown bar around NZ and you'll see just how popular it is [8D]

Stick to what you know, sipping your G & T's and shopping at PPG [8D][8D][8D]


YOU must be drinking it now as your very wrong with above statement.. MATE.. [8D]


How so KINGI?!?

Given that I can’t see you hitting the Viaduct in Auckland or Courtenay Place in Wellington with your Zimmer frame [8D] I think it is you who are wrong about nobody buying it!

The G & T comment may be an assumption (which I think is probably correct) but as for shopping at PPG well you’ve already disclosed that on this forum previously. [8D]

Good on ya MATE [8D][8D][8D]

[bushbasher]

quote:Originally posted by spector

Sorry to bore everyone with the pointless argument between myself and Doc. The 20% of the NZ thing aside, I really would like to see 42 expanding more internationally... even I will admit that there is no future in this company if it just revolves around NZ. 42 needs to keep pushing into Australia and Britain and keep the year on year growth continuing exponentially.


Exactly right. But only way of doing that is spending more on overhead today to get product into new marketplaces, which of course means postponing profits for further down the road. Now I know FTB shareholders are a patient bunch...but how patient.

[minimoke]

quote:Originally posted by spector

Sorry to bore everyone with the pointless argument between myself and Doc. The 20% of the NZ thing aside, I really would like to see 42 expanding more internationally... even I will admit that there is no future in this company if it just revolves around NZ. 42 needs to keep pushing into Australia and Britain and keep the year on year growth continuing exponentially.


Not only do FBT need to get more product to market they need to get it to a market that is sustainable. A premium vodka product aimed at high income “Gen Y” individuals who frequent trendy nightclubs / bars is not the way of achieving it.

It’s a great model if you can get product to market now and make a profit at it but what happens next year when vodka is no longer the drink to be seen drinking.

I’d pick that your Gen Y’ers will move to South Gin and water products for a while (if this is where the trend goes) but will quickly move onto something else – within 12 months or certainly within two years. This is the length of the product life cycle in this market. And this is I guess why FTB is punting on a Rum product – but a product aimed at the same market will have the same limited life.

If FTB can market successfully to Gen X’ers and the Boomers they may see life in their Company and make a profit. And to do this they will need to be seen as a credible company.

I would not expect any “premium / super premium” vehicle, wine, spirit, tobacco watch etc manufacturer to assert (or allow assetions) that they have 20% (or any other high figure) of market share by volume. Its just not credible - Premium products may have mass appeal but they are not accessible to the masses!

[BRICKS]

quote:Originally posted by Futurz


quote:Originally posted by BRICKS


quote:Originally posted by Futurz


quote:Originally posted by BRICKS

WHAT has this got to do selling Bloody vodka that NO body BUY`s and is
broke pity the HOLDERS.. [8D]


Maybe not for old Queens like you KING [8D][8D][8D]

But head to any downtown bar around NZ and you'll see just how popular it is [8D]

Stick to what you know, sipping your G & T's and shopping at PPG [8D][8D][8D]


YOU must be drinking it now as your very wrong with above statement.. MATE.. [8D]


How so KINGI?!?

Given that I can’t see you hitting the Viaduct in Auckland or Courtenay Place in Wellington with your Zimmer frame [8D] I think it is you who are wrong about nobody buying it!

The G & T comment may be an assumption (which I think is probably correct) but as for shopping at PPG well you’ve already disclosed that on this forum previously. [8D]

Good on ya MATE [8D][8D][8D]



CRAP.. [8D]

[Placebo]

Futurz I think you are on the wrong tack. The King as I recall had a fatal attraction to crap investments in plummeting retailers. He seemed to have the anti-Midas touch (ie. it all turned to crap the minute he went near it) with every investment he made.

This Bricks chappie seems more concerned with visiting posh Floridian tennis clubs and enriching our lives by sharing his happy experiences with the rest of us.

Clearly NOT the same person. No way [^][^]

[Futurz]

quote:Originally posted by Placebo

Futurz I think you are on the wrong tack. The King as I recall had a fatal attraction to crap investments in plummeting retailers. He seemed to have the anti-Midas touch (ie. it all turned to crap the minute he went near it) with every investment he made.

This Bricks chappie seems more concerned with visiting posh Floridian tennis clubs and enriching our lives by sharing his happy experiences with the rest of us.

Clearly NOT the same person. No way [^][^]


Haha, that is all true and you might be right ;) but you can tell a lot of someone not necessarily from what they write but how they write it. In this case the use of random UPPER CASE words, the rambling incoherent mutterings and not to mention that wonderful smiley face [8D]

Have another G & T BRICKS...you should try the Souths Gin [8D][8D]

THE KING is dead, long live the King!

[BRICKS]

quote:Originally posted by Futurz


quote:Originally posted by Placebo

Futurz I think you are on the wrong tack. The King as I recall had a fatal attraction to crap investments in plummeting retailers. He seemed to have the anti-Midas touch (ie. it all turned to crap the minute he went near it) with every investment he made.

This Bricks chappie seems more concerned with visiting posh Floridian tennis clubs and enriching our lives by sharing his happy experiences with the rest of us.

Clearly NOT the same person. No way [^][^]


Haha, that is all true and you might be right ;) but you can tell a lot of someone not necessarily from what they write but how they write it. In this case the use of random UPPER CASE words, the rambling incoherent mutterings and not to mention that wonderful smiley face [8D]

Have another G & T BRICKS...you should try the Souths Gin [8D][8D]

THE KING is dead, long live the King!



YOUR crap with NO money.. [8D]

[Futurz]

:DHahaha good retort there KING ;)

FYI - It is "You're" (as in the contraction of "you are") NOT "Your" [^]

For an ex-KING you certainly have a poor grasp of the Queen's English [8D] I guess living in a country of convicts will have that effect on you[V]

[BRICKS]

quote:Originally posted by Futurz

:DHahaha good retort there KING ;)

FYI - It is "You're" (as in the contraction of "you are") NOT "Your" [^]

For an ex-KING you certainly have a poor grasp of the Queen's English [8D] I guess living in a country of convicts will have that effect on you[V]


IT apeares KIWI`s are so stupid that $4 million people talk all the same and never learn as its generation come along each year seen nothing but know all tell me something that your DONE.. [8D]

[BRICKS]

WITH people in NZ the way that you talk stick your 42 where it hurts and BUY more stock KIWI.. [8D] tell me the RESULTS .. [8D]

[Futurz]

If I could even understand what the heck you are trying to say I might bother with a response. As it is I might just leave it there.
Take a chill pill don't want you having a heart attack or stroke, though I hear the doctors are top notch over there in the good old US of A :D

KIWI over and OUT [8D]

[Placebo]

Hey Futurz it's Mi-Mammy, and don't forget the $2000 an hour tennis clubs that you and I are sooooooo jealous of :D:D:D

Miami, gosh! wow! so envious!![^]

And re the lingo, well I've heard of Chinglish, but maybe this is Kinglish?;)

[Futurz]

Love your work Placebo!

Don't forget the $2 Seafood buffets [xx(]

[BRICKS]

quote:Originally posted by Placebo

Hey Futurz it's Mi-Mammy, and don't forget the $2000 an hour tennis clubs that you and I are sooooooo jealous of :D:D:D

Miami, gosh! wow! so envious!![^]

And re the lingo, well I've heard of Chinglish, but maybe this is Kinglish?;)


AS you hate the whole world NZ say something MR Placebo as so deep down would LOVE to be here but as you have NO connection`s kiss some
person`s A** just been in a TAP Bar and guess what NO 42 .. [8D]

[BRICKS]

TO put the picture RIGHT they had never heared of IT.. [8D]

[Futurz]

quote:Originally posted by BRICKS

TO put the picture RIGHT they had never heared of IT.. [8D]


You just don't get it! Why would the "Tap Bar" even stock it!

<pre id="code"> http://www.floridataproom.com/profile.asp </pre id="code">

Welcome to the Florida Tap Room Restaurants & Bars, where you'll experience our devotion to World Class Ales and inspired food located in two of Florida's favorite and most popular destinations - Orlando and Fort Lauderdale!

At the Florida Tap Room you won't find the so-called big names in mass-produced food and beer. Instead, you'll discover a unique experience where the accent is on flavor and quality. Whether it be our lively sportsbar-like setting in Orlando or our waterside dining deck on Fort Lauderdale's IntraCoastal, enjoy creative seafood dishes, the best bar-top menu in both areas, and tasty fresh-brewed ales.

It's basically a beer barn with cheap seafood dishes. Face it KING you are not in FTB target market and never will be. So stick to posting about things you can understand like AIR and PPG, great stocks that they are!

[minimoke]

Bricks
If you find yourself in Vegas try the Voodoo Lounge: The cost for an average clubber at the 51st-floor at the Rio hotel, the cover charge Sundays through Wednesdays is $20, Thursdays through Saturdays, $30. This lounge offers its own VIP packages: Front of the line admission, table for four and one bottle of 42 Below Vodka, $400

[barnsley bill]

quote:Originally posted by minimoke

Bricks
If you find yourself in Vegas try the Voodoo Lounge: The cost for an average clubber at the 51st-floor at the Rio hotel, the cover charge Sundays through Wednesdays is $20, Thursdays through Saturdays, $30. This lounge offers its own VIP packages: Front of the line admission, table for four and one bottle of 42 Below Vodka, $400


400 bucks thats great, but how does that effect the margin (or negative margin) of the product?

[minimoke]

[/quote]
400 bucks thats great, but how does that effect the margin (or negative margin) of the product?
[/quote]
$400 is for the package not just the bottle. Unless the Club experience results in repeat sales it will add nothing.

[lanenz]

Miami. Is that where guys walk around in dark glasses and white suits? Girls walk in bikini and high heals? And the most successful businessmen are drug dealers? Bricks, why dont you stay there, you could make a fortune selling 42 below and P

[minimoke]

quote:Originally posted by lanenz
..... selling 42 below and P

And perhaps the new water product can be paired with Ecstasy.

[marinesalvor]

thats good Bongo - means they will re-order!

ps - good board appt

[Snow Leopard]

Mr Rich Frank formerly of "The Firm"[?] :D :D


quote:Leading Hollywood Executive Joins 42 Below (FTB) Board" (http://stocknessmonster.com/news-item?S=FTB&E=NZSE&N=131839)

FTB
26/05/2006
DIRECTOR

REL: 1232 HRS 42 Below Limited

DIRECTOR: FTB: 42 Below Announces Appointment of New Board Director

26 May 2006
Leading Hollywood Executive Joins 42 Below (FTB) Board

Mr. Rich Frank, former Chairman of Los Angeles Management and Talent Agency,
"The Firm", today joins the Board of 42 Below Ltd as a non-executive
Director.

Mr. Frank is a former Chairman of Walt Disney Television and was President of
Walt Disney Studios from 1985 to 1994. Previously, Mr. Frank served as
Vice-President and President of Paramount Television Group. Films and
television programmes including "The Lion King", "Pretty Woman", "Good
Morning Vietnam", "Dead Poets Society", "Cheers" and "Taxi" were some of the
creations during his time as head of Hollywood's leading entertainment
companies. He also served an unprecedented six years as the President of the
Academy of Television Arts and Sciences and is currently Vice-Chairman of the
American Film Institute.

Mr Frank identified the potential of emerging new media in the entertainment
world and beyond, at an early stage. In 1995, he founded, and became
Chairman and CEO of, Comcast Content & Communication (C3) in conjunction with
industry giant Comcast Corporation. In 1998, he was appointed Chairman of
Food.com.

Mr. Frank also owns a leading vineyard in the Napa Valley called Frank Family
Vineyard.

Geoff Ross, CEO of 42 Below, states, "Rich is a leader of Hollywood's
entertainment industry - part of that industry's 'Royalty'. We are thrilled
to have him as part of our team. We see the entertainment industry as being
an exciting part of building a global brand in today's market. Rich will be
invaluable for this".

Mr Frank states, "Over the last year I have observed 42 Below's fresh
approach to marketing their brand. The brand has a great story behind it, is
obviously very good quality and I'm proud to be part of its global growth
over the coming years".

For more information, contact Geoff Ross.

Phone: + 64 9 920 9430
Mobile: + 64 21 42 42 19
E-mail: geoff@42below.com

ENDS
End CA:00131839 For:FTB Type:DIRECTOR Time:2006-05-26:12:32:10

[barnsley bill]

another one getting paid.....

[Snow Leopard]

but look out for "42B, The Movie". The story of one underdog bottle striving against impossible odds (a mere 20% market share) to take on the world and win.
I understand Tom Hanks will play Geoff Ross but the role of the main villian, to be known as only as the "The Doctor" is not yet cast.

[barnsley bill]

quote:Originally posted by Paper Tiger

but look out for "42B, The Movie". The story of one underdog bottle striving against impossible odds (a mere 20% market share) to take on the world and win.
I understand Tom Hanks will play Geoff Ross but the role of the main villian, to be known as only as the "The Doctor" is not yet cast.


I see him as a donald plesance character similar to the baddy in "you only live twice", bald head, ugly scar and spends the whole film smoking with a long ciggy holder and stroking his *****...........cat

[Futurz]

...and possibly the love interest played by spector [:p]

[minimoke]

quote:Originally posted by Paper Tiger

Mr Rich Frank formerly of "The Firm"
Leading Hollywood Executive Joins 42 Below (FTB) Board"[/url][/i]

Well he certainly has a fair bit of bling behind him but still no experience at moving product through volume chains.

No doubt a great career in advertising and entertainment but a retirement block selling your wine out the back isn’t going to add a great deal of value. He’ll be working hard to move his own product and I am not sure FBT will be able to piggy back on RF's high value wines in the volumes needed to turn a profit. Again it comes down to scale – this guy can manage 300 acres (successfully or not who knows) out of 500,000 acres of grapes in California.

Ask any small scale vintner and they will tell you they love wine and the lifestyle but in terms of making money it is just as easy to stand at the front gate and biff handful on notes into the wind.

[The Doctor]

well I guess they can just buy out his wine operation...and add it to the bulging product portfolio.A bit of clever rebranding and its got to be another 'master stroke' by 'baldy'...

[Snow Leopard]

quote:Originally posted by The Doctor

well I guess they can just buy out his wine operation...and add it to the bulging product portfolio.A bit of clever rebranding and its got to be another 'master stroke' by 'baldy'...

you are obviously seeing the great possibilities of wine flavoured vodkas. Definitely the Zinfandel for me.