42 Below - Beyond the IPO...

[Gryffyn]

Just thought a new thread might be appropriate as the original is now eating New York and we are way beyond IPO.

We are in fact in profit, even for those who paid full IPO whack. The knockers must be spinning in the graveyard of their incorrect predictions.

[mikescott]

Indeed, spinning like Fools To Be is spinning - just like the knockers on Strathmore, Kachingo, Davnet, Eforce, Feverpitch, National Mail, RMG, SLG etc. :D:D:D:D

I see Mr McKillen has just milked another US$1.3 millions out of the company. Good one. [:p][:p][:p][:p]

[Gryffyn]

FTB
18/08/2004
ADDRESS

REL: 1500 HRS 42 Below Limited

ADDRESS: FTB: 42 Below AGM signals further growth and expansion

42 BELOW HOLDS FIRST AGM AS LISTED COMPANY AND SIGNALS FURTHER GROWTH AND
INTERNATIONAL EXPANSION

Auckland 18th August 2004: 42 BELOW Limited (FTB) today held it's first
Annual General Meeting as a listed company. Addresses by Chairman Grant Baker
and CEO Geoff Ross signalled further growth and accelerated international
expansion, on the back of improved sales and distribution arrangements.

In the Chairman's Address, Grant Baker said that with total revenue for the
year ended 31 March 2004 of $5.899m, 42 BELOW were able to demonstrate with
the full year's results, that they can successfully grow their revenue.
"Sales have exceeded the projections provided when we listed in October 2003.
Our sales of vodka and gin at $4.41m were an increase of $3.9m or 775% over
the prior year," he said.

Mr. Baker also said that 42 BELOW's overhead expenditure to margin ratio is
improving as sales build and markets become profitable. As an example: Prior
to listing in the year to 31 March 2003 the company incurred $5.50 of
overhead expenditure to achieve $1 of margin. At 31 March 2004 this ratio was
$2.50 to $1 margin. In the four months trading since 31 March 2004 this ratio
has improved again and $1.60 of overhead expenditure is invested to achieve
$1 of margin. "Hence our belief that we are working towards break even by the
end of this financial year," he said.

He said the new financial year was going exceedingly well with anticipated
sales revenues of more than $9.0 million for the year ending September 2004
and $12 million by the year ending March2005, surpassing prospectus revenue
projections by more than 40%.

"We expect growth to continue while being mindful of managing our working
capital prudently. We expect to move into a break-even position in the last
quarter of this financial year primarily because of the excellent margins we
make on 42 BELOW and SOUTH compared to other alcoholic beverages. We intend
to grow from our current base of 6000 cases per month, which will contribute
a margin of at least $100 per case or $600,000 per month," said Mr Baker.

As part of a review of distribution arrangements in each market 42 BELOW
announced at the meeting that it was at an advanced stage of discussions with
Australia's Carlton United Beverages (part of the Fosters Group) to sell and
distribute the 42 BELOW vodka and SOUTH Gin brands throughout Australia and
New Zealand. It also announced improvements to it's USA sales and
distribution structure following the appointment of Pearl Beverages and that
it was looking to purchase the business of Collinsville Securities Limited,
the USA direct sales organisation set up prior to 42 BELOW's listing in 2003
to develop the USA market.

"Distributor relationships like the one with Pearl Beverages and the one we
intend to enter with Carlton & United Beverages make it possible to expand
further into these markets while also allowing us to improve our margins and
our operating efficiencies as we continue to grow,' said Mr Baker.

The Chief Vodka Bloke, Geoff Ross focussed on how the company is using the
international recognition that it has created to drive export expansion.

He said that in the last year 42 BELOW have gained a truly international
recognition for their brand; winning awards at the 42nd World Selection 2004
of Spirits and Liqueurs in Brussels; the only gold medal in the liquor
category for 42 BELOW Manuka Honey Vodka in the Salon International de
L'Alimentation International Food Exhibition in Paris; and by continuing to
have a strong presence at events like the 2004 Pre Oscar Party in LA.

"We are also building international recognition for our brand among the
worlds top bartenders. In June we ran the inaugural 42 BELOW ****tail World
Cup, on an ice bar at the top of Coronet Peak, during the 30th Winter
Festival in Queenstown...The 42 BELOW ****tail World Cup was the hottest
ticket in th

[Gryffyn]

Well mindless, facts don't lie. If I sold my holdings now I make a tidy profit. You on the other hand still just have jacks1ht!

[mikescott]

quote:Originally posted by Gryffyn

Well mindless, facts don't lie. If I sold my holdings now I make a tidy profit. You on the other hand still just have jacks1ht!



That's exactly what the punters were saying when they bought RMG at 30 cents and it went to 35 cents. :D:D:D:D:D

Nice little earner is Fools-To-Be (FTB) for the vendors, huh? See Shane McKillen just took another US$1.3 millions?

The wheels of fortune are spinning - and the vendors love u. [:X]

[Gryffyn]

Yawn.

[marinesalvor]

Minder you get really boring - now in stereo (on 2 threads)

who gives a toss about a few ICT cos you are raving about - 42B is already a fine NZ icon brand - and it has a bigger op than any silly det collection co ever will

build a bridge and take a nice walk over it

[Gryffyn]

Preferably a short bridge and a long walk.

[mikescott]

What? It's ok for you chaps to open up a thread to promote the spin from Fools-to-be but not ok for others to highlight the milking going on? :D:D:D:D

US$1.3 millions for a contract to distribute in the States for Mr McKillen - nice one, Fools-To-Be. [:p][:p][:p][:p][:p]

[Gryffyn]

Hmmmn - counts (admittedly paper) profits to date and laughs. I accept there is risk with this share - one that is currently paying off - but don't need to hear mindless whine on and on and on bleating about something he knows zilch about. It costs money to build a brand! But, brand payoff can be huge.

[thereslifeafter87]

Who makes the alcohol FTB sell?
They have to be making a killing!
I would bet a lot that Geoff Ross owns a large portion of the manufacturing company.

[KJ]

FBT have a margin of $8 per bottle-that's what matters!!

[mikescott]

quote:Originally posted by KJ

FBT have a margin of $8 per bottle-that's what matters!!



:D:D:D:D:D:D
Now you know the spin that's going round!
[:p][:p][:p][:p][:p][:p][:p]

[Gryffyn]

Well mindless, I sold all my FTB for 50c and 51c - leaving me with all the options. So - slight real profit to date and a nice paper profit if I ever sell the options or exercise them.

Must be really annoying for you to be unable to actually take that away from me no matter how much you whine. Read my lips - I (and probably many others) have already made a profit and cannot lose money now on FTB - only make it!!! I think that counts as a good investment.

[Gryffyn]

IRG accurately sum up the situation, risk and possibilities:

FTB's latest results show sales growth on target and investors seem to be taking more notice. The company has gained some support since announcing it expects to exceed its revenue forecasts by about 40% for the March 2006 year and post a profit for the period. This is a risky investment because FTB is still bleeding cash. However, the company has clearly cracked a marketing formula and if it achieves its goals, substantial profits can be expected.

[mikescott]

This the same IRG which recommended Tower before the share price crashed? :D:D:D:D:D

[KJ]

Minder-you are so predictable on each thread you are on.

Take a look under EBO thread:

I advised that I had purchased EBO shares on 4/6/04.
Minder responds shortly after with "I am told to expect some seriously bad news in July"
When asked to elaborate there is just no response.

What an absolute negative loser.

[Gryffyn]

Wouldn't know about that, have only started accessing their info since access made it free. Caveat Emptor. Prefer my own research anyway - seems to be paying off!

[spector]

any feed back from the AGM fellas? anything happen etc...?

[mikescott]

If you follow Ebos properly, you will know that several of their contracts and agencies are due for expiry and renewal this year. Take it from there ....;)

As for $8 profit per bottle of fools-to-be, that's a bit like saying that it only costs RBD $2.50 to make a pizza so the profit per pizza is $6.50.

Very profound logic that and very worthy of shareholders who are Fools-To-Be. :D:D:D:D

Shane McKillen is ever so grateful that Mother Earth breeds the likes of fools-to-be shareholders. [:p][:p][:p]

[Gryffyn]

Bleat bleat belat - but I've made money Mindless explain who the real fool is - those with profit in our pockets or idiots who drone on knocking other peoples successful share picks while they miss out?

[Sideshow Bob]

Gryffyn,

Relatively new to this channel, and never really been a fan of FTB (but quite happy to be wrong). But, if you are so keen on FTB, why did you sell out, at basically the original IPO price, leaving only with the options??

Sideshow Bob

[Gryffyn]

Fair question. It was always a speculative punt and the ipo went horribly wrong but things recovered to put the head shares even/in slight profit. As it may be some time before FTB can realise its plan - and it may fail - I decided that booking a slight profit and keeping the paper profit in the options is the sensible thing for me. I'm putting the capital to use elsewhere while keeping an effective no-cost stake in FTB. win-win in my book.

[KJ]

Minder-I do follow EBO properly and am well aware of the contracts-you are evading the question-go back onto the EBOS thread and answer the question-remember I did buy at $3.30.
Have you seen today's announcement?

[mikescott]

quote:Originally posted by KJ

Minder-I do follow EBO properly and am well aware of the contracts-you are evading the question-go back onto the EBOS thread and answer the question-remember I did buy at $3.30.
Have you seen today's announcement?


Then you will know what is happening with the contracts. :D:D:D:D

What's there to evade? [^][^][^][^][^]

But I guess when you believe a start-up can have $35 millions of goodwill, and a vendor can have a distribution contract for what he should be doing anyway, and he can sell the contract back to Fools-To-Be for US$1.3 million, then you have every reason to be evasive? [}:)][}:)][}:)]

Enjoy the spin. That's what is going to be left after the milking is done. Mooowwwwwwwwww - she's a fat cow, this one. [xx(][xx(]

[KJ]

Minder-for the life of me I can not understand what you get out of the constant criticism of other peoples sharemarket dealings.

From memory, I think that everyone who has invested in FTB has acknowledged the risk-one they are prepared to take.Why do you feel that you have to play God and tell them they are wrong and that they are fools.

You appear to get your kicks by haunting this forum and constantly telling people that they are fools.What's your problem?

[Sideshow Bob]

Gryffyn,

Nice work, and would have been many who bailed before climbing back to the IPO price. Undoubtably FTB has done better than many have predicted, maybe including themselves. Hopefully the options will pay off, but still feel FTB still very speculative, with lots of hype/spin.


Cheers
Sideshow

[mikescott]

Fair point, KJ, if indeed you believe that's my intention.

But take my postings as notes of caution and offsets to the spinning that crops up on this forum. Doesn't mean I am right or wrong - but as an individual, I prefer to invest with access to all available information and opinions - some I take on board, most I ignore.

If you are a believer in Fools-To-Be, all power to you and you should be unconcerned about my postings. In fact, you should be happy that I am keeping the share price low (in the short term) for you to buy more.

If you believe that a start-up can have goodwill of $35 millions and one of the vendors should have a distribution contract which he sells back to the company for US$1.3 millions, then that's all fine and well.

Kinda begs the question, doesn't it, of what and who the company was set up for? Milking, anyone? ;)

[boring]

I've followed FTB with interest since float simply as an exercise in watching an embryonic company list, rapidly grow earnings and look to deliver profitability. And I also like success stories.

So, even though I originally thought the IPO price was steep, and thus stayed clear, I believe it's a classic example of the difficulty in finding a decent valuation model for fast-growing and successful startups.

Since float, FTB has far surpassed expectations on sales revenue growth and are now looking at break-even within the current financial year:

"We expect growth to continue while being mindful of managing our working capital prudently. We expect to move into a break-even position in the last quarter of this financial year primarily because of the excellent margins we make on 42 BELOW and SOUTH compared to other alcoholic beverages".

So lets say that FTB reach break-even this financial year and continue to grow revenue. It's difficult to predict when/if sales growth will slow and at what point profitability will mature/plateau. So a classic forward P/E model is not appropriate here. How does one calculate discounted cash flows when sales growth is 775% compared to previous years. The point is you can not rely on traditional sharemarket measures for startup companies.

I think Minder raises some good points to consider about the valuation of FTB ... but:
1. If the company continues to deliver sales growth and becomes a highly profitable company, no shareholder is going to give a toss about how much the founders flogged off the company for. If anything, if FTB continue to be successful, you could accuse the founders of flogging it off too cheaply !
2. Same about related-party transactions, this only becomes an issues for shareholders when the company is not sucessful. Success itself can be very forgiving for past indiscretions.
3. As to the 35 mill goodwill, for a company that relies on a brand name, this figure may end up being totally insignificant. Do you think that the shareholders of companies such as Nike give a hoot that there is nothing really behind this company in terms of real assets ? Nike do not own any manufacturing plants, they outsource all their manufacturing.

So, I can accuse Minder of being repetitive and maybe lacking flexibility in his/her valuation models for company startups ... but I certainly can't accuse him/her of not adding a meaningful contribution to this forum. And shareholders who own this company should take the opportunity to reaffirm their reasons for owning this company when reading Minder's posts.

Minder: Repetitive, yes, single-minded, yes, of value to this forum, definitely yes. If his/her posts bother you, maybe it's because you have doubts about your conviction to your own holding. You could even say that Minder provides a "service" on these forums !

Myself, I own none. But I'm seriously considering buying some at 50 cents to add to my speculative, high-growth, small-cap portfolio. Call me a fool or whatever, but hey, I don't give a crap what anyone else thinks ... I'll just do my own thang ...

[Gryffyn]

Why not buy the options then if being speculative?

[spector]

nice one Boring, I totally agree. I'm new to investing so I read everyones post no matter what their point of view because it gives me a base to make my own decisions. I've gone heavy into FTB and I totally disagree with Minders point of view... but a forum needs to be a forum for both sides to have their say. I trust Minder will be man enough to admit he was wrong if FTB continues to go well.. just as I hope i'm man enough to admit I was wrong if Minder turns out to be correct. At the end of the day we are all responsible for our own finances and none of us should be threatened by someone elses opinion.

[spector]

quote:Originally posted by Gryffyn

Why not buy the options then if being speculative?


good point Gryff, I traded alot of my head shares for the B-options... I figured they were the safest bet... 2006 is a long way away and the FTB shares only have to be at 70cps in 2006 for me to break even.

[spector]

quote:Originally posted by minder

you should be happy that I am keeping the share price low (in the short term) for you to buy more. ;)


ha ha! you're not suggesting you're single handedly keeping the price down do you Minder?!:D and your comment "in the short term" almost suggests that even you think the share price may rise further;) A small part of me thinks maybe you're a FTB shareholder afterall... :D:D:D:D (Spector finishes his post with 4 smilies and apologises if Minder has trademarked the technique. Any breach of copyright is unintentional:))

[marinesalvor]

of course Minder owns shares - thats why he was at the AGM

[mikescott]

No, the free ****tails and spin/entertainment are what attracts me!

Afterall, fools-to-be are paying.

Good media coverage and not a mention of Shane McKillen milking another US$1.3 millions out of you fools-to-be!

Good one, Shane. :D:D:D:D:D

[johna]

Idiot

[mikescott]

Shane McKillen passes his regards to you, Johna. :D:D:D:D:D

[KJ]

MoSteph-I went to the AGM yesterday but I do not wish to comment in any detail on this site as I will only open myself up to a lot of negative criticism and diatripe which I have neither the time nor inclination to respond to.

My opinion has never altered:A risk investment but a risk that I am prepared to take.

[Placebo]

I'm with you on that KJ. My exposure is small, but of course I watch with interest.

I have a good feeling about it, they are making all the right noises and appear heading in the right direction. Seem to be ahead of expectations too, in a very crowded market. For a small player (in the drinks market and the sharemarket) they have quite a high profile, which is fundamental to their business.

And who cares what others think its value is? The "market" says it's 50c a share. End of story.

[mikescott]

And RMG was 38 cents per share. Who cares what others think?

End of the story!:D:D:D:D:D

[thereslifeafter87]

quote:Originally posted by KJ

FBT have a margin of $8 per bottle-that's what matters!!


There is a BIG difference between gross margin and net margin.

FTB actually have negative net margins at the moment. Thats what matters.

[thereslifeafter87]

quote:Originally posted by Gryffyn

Fair question. It was always a speculative punt and the ipo went horribly wrong but things recovered to put the head shares even/in slight profit. As it may be some time before FTB can realise its plan - and it may fail - I decided that booking a slight profit and keeping the paper profit in the options is the sensible thing for me. I'm putting the capital to use elsewhere while keeping an effective no-cost stake in FTB. win-win in my book.


Gryffyn, your logic is horribly flawed.

Either FTB is a good investment, worthy of putting money in, or it is a bad investment and you should sell out.

Saying "well I can't lose any money now" is bollocks, because if you lose money on the options from the current price, that is a REAL loss, regardless of whether it cost you anything to get them in the first place.

This is a mistake too many investors make when dealing with the sharemarket.

[thereslifeafter87]

quote:Originally posted by Sideshow Bob

Gryffyn,

Nice work, and would have been many who bailed before climbing back to the IPO price. Undoubtably FTB has done better than many have predicted, maybe including themselves. Hopefully the options will pay off, but still feel FTB still very speculative, with lots of hype/spin.


Cheers
Sideshow


Sideshow,

I am one of those who bailed after the IPO, but do not regret this at all.

I was in it to stag, but was horribly wrong. It taught me a lesson I will keep to heart forever, that is Never Ever Speculate.

I do not regret selling at all. I lost 17% on my investment, but since then have made a lot more than that, and a lot more than the gains FTB holders have made by employing my capital elsewhere in less speculative areas.

The old maxim 'you can't go broke taking a profit' is stupidity. Either an investment is good, in which case you should hold (in the absence of other more attractive opportunities), or it isn't, in which case you should sell immediately.

When people speculated on the IPO, as soon as things headed south they should have sold. They should not have closed their eyes saying "well I was just taking a punt anyway" and hoped for the best. That is not good investing, thats relying on luck.

[thereslifeafter87]

quote:Originally posted by minder

Fair point, KJ, if indeed you believe that's my intention.

Kinda begs the question, doesn't it, of what and who the company was set up for? Milking, anyone? ;)


Minder, the phrase 'begs the question' actually means something different to what you assume it to mean.

When something "begs the question", what it does is provide the answer as well as the question.

I think you mean "it makes you wonder" or "it makes you want to ask the question".

[KJ]

Thereslifeafter87

You just reinforce the point that that I have made about not commenting on the AGM because it would only draw negative responses.

At the AGM we learnt that FTB have a margin of $8 per bottle-I understand that this is quite high for this type of business.I saw this as positive-you do not.

Your response is to tell me that " There is a BIG difference between gross margin and nett margin" -nice and negative-keep it up.

[blackcap]

150000just went through at 50.5 cents and there is a buyer for 100,000 shares at 51 cents. So watch this one go up in the short term.

[thereslifeafter87]

KJ,

You misunderstand.

I'm not being negative, I'm just pointing out an error in your thinking. Don't associate me with Minder who just keeps knocking the stock and laughing at people. I don't know whether FTB is a good investment for people generally, I just know that it doesn't meet my criteria. You may all do very well, especially if their predictions come to fruition. I just don't know how to value such a company.

If FTB say an $8 gross margin is good, then they are probably right. However, gross margins are only important once critical mass has been achieved, and even then are only significant once other expenses have been removed from the gross profit - leaving the net margin.

What is important for any busines is the net margin they achieve. The $8 in this case represents the difference between what FTB pays for each bottle of vodka, and what they sell it for. It does not take account of marketing expenses, employee expenses, interest expenses, lease expenses etc.

What does a bottle of 42 below sell for? $50?
That would mean their gross margin = 16%

That may be good for an alcohol company, but is not great for most companies.

For example, FAN - a company I hold on the ASX has a 12% NET margin, and it sells furniture.

CIY - another company on the ASX has net margins of around 60-70%.

Actually, if we assume that FTB can reach the stage where they make margins of 12% (I'm being generous) on their projected sales of $12 mill, this gives them earnings of $1.44 million in Full year 2005. Without adjsuting for the dilutionary effect of warrants, this places them on a Full year 2005 PE of 42.85. Oops, thats all pre-tax too, so add or subtract another 33% as required...

This is heavily expensive for a coy with no track record of good margins and profitability. Maybe I was wrong earlier in my post, and this coy can be valued. In light of this, I can't see FTB as a worthwhile investment at this stage, as even if management meet their forecasts, the company remains expensive.

Even if they grow sales to $24million by 2006, and achieve margins of 16% (though this is impossible as this is their gross margin), their Net profit after tax will still only be $2.688 million, putting them a full year 2006 PE of around 23 at current prices. This means you are paying heavily in advance for earnings growth that is by no means certain.

Too much risk for far too small a return IMO.

[spector]

I don't think it would matter if they made a profit of $8 per bottle 0r $80. Whatever they make will be put straight back into the company to fund growth. So I don't think any of us should have any illusions about the company returning a "profit".

Unlike companys like Mainfreight where you can put a bricks/morter value on their growth (eg. the have x amount of new trucks and x amount of new depots) FTB won't have anything to show for their spend other than increased sales volume. And the "profits" from this sales growth will again be put back into more growth.

But the more the company grows the more interesting it will seem to overseas investors, it does seem a bit of a sitter for Growth Funds as it is - there is afterall a finite amount of shares on the market.

The only thing that would make me nervous about FTB was if they did another share issue. But I believe the company has repeatedly said this won't be the case

[blackcap]

quote:Originally posted by spector



The only thing that would make me nervous about FTB was if they did another share issue. But I believe the company has repeatedly said this won't be the case



They dont need to. They will be completing two quasi share issues at 50 cents anyway. One in October 2005 and one in October 2006.

Regards

[johna]

I very much doubt that the bottle stores and bars are taking zero margin on this product. So the correct sell price for FTB is probably as low as $20 depending on what margins in the wholesaler/retailer are like.

In that case $8 gross margin starts to look pretty good, like about 40%.

You have built your elaborate castle of analysis on sand!

[blackcap]

well well another half million went through at 51. Wonder who the seller is and also the buyer?

Would be interesting to find out.

[KJ]

Thereslifeafter87

Your earlier post, quote:

"Who makes the alcohol FTB sell?
They have to be making a killing!
I would bet a lot that Geoff Ross owns a large portion of the manufacturing company"

That's what you said and you are not being negative towards FBT.

For your info Contract Bottling Company,a division of NZ Wines and Spirits Ltd,has exclusive rights to manufacture and bottle FTB products in NZ.

Never let the truth get in the way of a good story.

[thereslifeafter87]

KJ
Do you know who owns NZ Wines and Spirits ltd?

They will be making a killing of ftb's huge sales growth!

johna,

Thats an excellent point, I can't believe I didn't consider that! It was rather blonde of me.

However, I don't think the cost prices of bottlestores and bars are that low. Everyone I've ever known who has been in the wholesale liquor business says they operate off tight margins.

So if average price for 42 below in bottle stores is around $50 (can anyone confirm this?), I would say that FTB sell the bottle for between $35-$40. Lets say $37.50.

This gives a gross margin of 21.33% which is a lot better than 16%, but still not sufficient in my view to justify the current price. Working off my previous analysis (which was wrong as johna has pointed out), we get 2006 (based on $24 mill revenue) PAT of $3.43mill based on GROSS margins. This places FTB on a (undiluted) FY2006 PE of around 18.

If FTB continues its successfull growth, and actually reaches targets such as I have suggested (I'm being heavily optimistic), it should operate on a PE of around 30 (but could go as high as 40 or 50). This would give a market cap of about $102.9 million, or a diluted share price of 67cents.

That is only a 34% return on investment in 2 years. The possibility of this kind of reward does not inspire me to take the risk associated with investing in a not-yet-profitable start up.

I would be wanting hundreds of percent.

If they again double sales to 2007, they will earn $10.24 mill Before expenses, and before tax.

If we say that they achieve margins of 15% - those are excellent margins in most peoples books, they will earn $7.2 million, less tax of 33% = $4.824 mill.

On a massive PE of 50 (this could perhaps be justified if FTB had 100% sales growth year on year to 2007), this gives FTB a market cap of $241.2 mill, or a Shareprice of $1.20.

On a more realistic PE of 30, we get a SP of 72 cents.

These are not fantastic returns for the amount of risk involved.

[$imon]

Some observations from the AGM...

No need for further capital in foreseeable future, they haven't even thought about the warrants, as they expect to be able to raise debt to fund expansion against their stock and debtors. Only if they grow much faster than predicted they will they require additional cash.

Hugely focused on growing sales this year.

These guys are passionate about success, despite what some may think about their devious intentions to milk shareholders.

So much opportunity to grow, not even in duty free in most places yet. Only available in 10 states in US.

The buyout of Collinsville [US distribution set up by Shane McKillen] was at a pre-determined price, calculated on the sales it acheived. If it wasn't bought now, it would only get more expensive as sales grew.

Opportunity for someone in the local glass/bottling industry to manufacture bottles. Apparently the embossing is not available in nz, and consequently makes the imported bottles from France relatively expensive. They are keen to find a local supplier to reduce costs.

Here's hoping for another Grey Goose [sold to Bacardi for US$2b after 7 years in market]

Cheers
$imon

15.69% profit for those that bought into the float and held so far.

[spector]

thanks for your continued information $imon, thereslifeafter87 and Enigma. It's much appreciated. Wish I'd gone to the AGM, sounds like it was pretty good.

[drum]

Or more for those of us who ignored the IPO and brought them at 40c. Heh heh.

[Liberty]

I bought again today.

New closing high of 52c establishes a medium-term uptrend.

Enjoying the ride so far, I have plenty of these.
The only ones doing any 'milking' are blokes like me buying off those blokes out there who believe blokes like Minder.

High risk? Perhaps.
High return? Probably.
Exit strategy? You bet.

[Gryffyn]

quote:Originally posted by thereslifeafter87


quote:Originally posted by Gryffyn

Fair question. It was always a speculative punt and the ipo went horribly wrong but things recovered to put the head shares even/in slight profit. As it may be some time before FTB can realise its plan - and it may fail - I decided that booking a slight profit and keeping the paper profit in the options is the sensible thing for me. I'm putting the capital to use elsewhere while keeping an effective no-cost stake in FTB. win-win in my book.


Gryffyn, your logic is horribly flawed.

Either FTB is a good investment, worthy of putting money in, or it is a bad investment and you should sell out.

Saying "well I can't lose any money now" is bollocks, because if you lose money on the options from the current price, that is a REAL loss, regardless of whether it cost you anything to get them in the first place.

This is a mistake too many investors make when dealing with the sharemarket.




>87 - it's not as black and white as you make out. investments aren't just good - put all money into - and bad - completely avoid.

I have an investment strategy that sees me own a variety of shares in varying amounts for different periods of time.

My statements were relative to the point of investment and from there I can not lose money. However, you're right in that if the options crash then they are a loss, but as part of my overall strategy they are now a paid for itself risk with only upside from the point of investment.

If I think FTB is likely to tank I'd sell them too but I like FTB as a higher risk but small exposure venture.

The logic is perfectly consistent with my overall approach.

FTB - lots of winners so far and one whiner called mindless :D

[PGL]

TLA87
Off topic I know, but the phrase 'Begs the Question' is closest to 'fails to answer the question' or 'avoids the question' the phrase is often misused in the sense of 'asks the question'

[Gryffyn]

For matters etymological I turn to my copy of Brewer's Dictionary of Phrase and Fable, and it has this to say:

"Beg the Question, To. To assume a proposition which, in reality, involves the conclusion."

"The phrase is the common English equivalent of the Latin term, PETITIO PRINCIPII"

In short, assuming as a fact the very thing you profess to prove!

[PGL]

Well since I can't delete the previous message I will apologise and go and eat a large piece of humble pie (Brewer : to come down from a position you have assumed and to be obliged to defer to others )

[DJ Monaco]

TLA87, when you work out margins you should work on the basis of wholesale sales before tax (which is significant on alcohol), as a large proportion of FTB's sales are export. At the AGM I believe they said $1m in sales would produce $600k in gross margin. I would be interested in seeing you re-work the numbers on the basis of 60% margin

[KJ]

TLA87-in relation to your analysis-

FBT press release dated 18/8/04:
Current sales are 6000 cases per mth,which contributes a margin of at least $100 per case-so a gross margin of $600,000 per mth.

Sales
We know that sales for Half yr to March 2004 were $3.3m.
FBT have stated that sales for Half to Sept 2004 will be $5.7m

This gives the $9m for y/e Sept 2004 that they have confirmed.

In the same release that they expect sales for the y/e March 2005 to be $12m-so sales for the first half are $5.7m and for the second half $6.3m. (total $12m)

From this it appears that the gross margin of $600,000 is generated from sales of approx $1m.(maybe a little higher)

Your calculation of margin of 16% or 21% is well astray.

Also,if you go back to the prospectus,you can see where they gave information on sales litres and sales dollars.Sales appear to average somewhere near $20 a litre.

There are quite a few other flaws in your analysis which is not worth going through IMO.

And yes,I do know the difference between gross margins and nett margins,fixed costs and variable costs.

I fully agree with you that this is a risky investment and everyone must weigh up the risks for themselves.

[clips]

geez .. you guys have given this outfit a good thrashing, all i want to know is does the stuff taste any good,,

[johna]

Well, actually, yes. They sent out a discount voucher to shareholders and I used that to buy a bottle of their gin and it made an outstanding martini, probably the nicest gin for that purpose I've tried (and believe me, I've tried a few).

I'm really only holding on to the shares in the hope of more vouchers or even, if they make a profit, samples!!!!

[marinesalvor]

Marinesalvoress and I swear by the feijoa (mixed with classic dry lemonade) we also have the manuka and passionfruit... a nice smooth vodka... highly recommended. I often give a bottle away to overseas clients - last one was a vodka guru who only bought top grade european - he said 42B as good as any in the world

[thereslifeafter87]

quote:Originally posted by spector

I don't think it would matter if they made a profit of $8 per bottle 0r $80. Whatever they make will be put straight back into the company to fund growth. So I don't think any of us should have any illusions about the company returning a "profit".

Unlike companys like Mainfreight where you can put a bricks/morter value on their growth (eg. the have x amount of new trucks and x amount of new depots) FTB won't have anything to show for their spend other than increased sales volume. And the "profits" from this sales growth will again be put back into more growth.



Spector,

When you say 'return a profit' do you actually mean 'pay a dividend'?
Presumably if FTB continue to increase sales, they will make a profit at some point. If they make a profit it is probably likely as you say that they will reinvest the profits into the business.

This is a good thing for a growth company. You need an expanded equity base in order to increase profits. More capital means you can spend more on marketing, hold higher stock levels, spend more on distribution which should equal more growth and higher profits.

If I was investing in the company I would hope that FTB had something to show for their increased spend other than increased sales volume, namely increased earnings from those increased sales.
The more they earn, the more they can reinvest, and the more they earn... It goes on in a cycle.

[Placebo]

quote:I'm really only holding on to the shares in the hope of more vouchers or even, if they make a profit, samples!!!!


Johna are you in Wellington? When they did their half-year result they invited holders to the Matterhorn for drinkies... in lieu of having the announcement. Nice touch, I thought.

All this discussion over how much they make per bottle (as high as 60pct?) just illustrates the difference between margins and profits. Roll on the latter!

[thereslifeafter87]

quote:Originally posted by KJ

TLA87-in relation to your analysis-

Your calculation of margin of 16% or 21% is well astray.

There are quite a few other flaws in your analysis which is not worth going through IMO.



KJ,

Point accepted. However, if you look at my later analysis, I work out possible NPAT on the basis of net margins of 15%. That is quite a high margin for any business, and if FTB achieved this I am sure the managers would be delighted.

So, my analysis stands.

I would be interested in your view as to the flaws in my analysis, it is always quite subjective as to what should be taken into account, and unfortunately I don't have heaps of time to do this stuff - even though its hella fun! :)

I'm actually procrastinating through this forum (thats why Ive posted so much on FTB lately), instead of writing a research paper I have due in next friday.

Cheers for the responses and interest people. It is always good seeing intelligent discussion and different points of view.

[johna]

I am afraid I live in Christchurch rather than Wellington (probably the first time that sentence has ever been typed).

I doubt if I could drink my return airfare in one sitting, even on one of my better days. Nice idea though.

I got a voucher from RBD for a chicken meal at KFC once as well.

I think it's a great idea to give shareholders a sample or something. Even Westpac when I was briefly a holder offered a discount on credit cards and insurance.

[$imon]

Also mentioned at AGM, but I forgot cos I had too many drinkies...

Currency Hedging strategy is to Hedge revenue, but take spot prices on Expenses. Anyone have any comment on how this would affect the bottom line in NZ$? Specifically interested in what those who seem to have incredibly complex spreadsheets for valuing the co based on cashflows have to say about it.

cheers
$imon

[Placebo]

Isn't there a brothel listed in Aussie? Wonder if it offered its shareholders free offers of its "product" :D

[spector]

quote:Originally posted by thereslifeafter87


quote:Originally posted by spector

I don't think it would matter if they made a profit of $8 per bottle 0r $80. Whatever they make will be put straight back into the company to fund growth. So I don't think any of us should have any illusions about the company returning a "profit".

Unlike companys like Mainfreight where you can put a bricks/morter value on their growth (eg. the have x amount of new trucks and x amount of new depots) FTB won't have anything to show for their spend other than increased sales volume. And the "profits" from this sales growth will again be put back into more growth.



Spector,

When you say 'return a profit' do you actually mean 'pay a dividend'?
Presumably if FTB continue to increase sales, they will make a profit at some point. If they make a profit it is probably likely as you say that they will reinvest the profits into the business.

This is a good thing for a growth company. You need an expanded equity base in order to increase profits. More capital means you can spend more on marketing, hold higher stock levels, spend more on distribution which should equal more growth and higher profits.

If I was investing in the company I would hope that FTB had something to show for their increased spend other than increased sales volume, namely increased earnings from those increased sales.
The more they earn, the more they can reinvest, and the more they earn... It goes on in a cycle.




yeah, what i was trying to say was that i think the value of the companys share would revolve around the perception of the brand... rather than dividends or PE ratios etc... and perception is a diffacult thing to value. But you're right, the share price will also be tied directly to the amount of vodka they are selling.

[wsheridan]

quote:Originally posted by Placebo

Isn't there a brothel listed in Aussie? Wonder if it offered its shareholders free offers of its "product" :D


Why don't you just buy a bottle of 42 below and go out on the town - all the ladies will look magnificent and in your mind you will be the greatest chat-up artist in the world. Failing that, get the ladies druink on the stuff and then even an ugly bugger like you will be in with a chance :D:D[}:)][B)]

[thereslifeafter87]

Spector,
I think once (if) FTB starts to make profits, valuations will be based on PE ratios and the markets perception of predicted growth.

[marinesalvor]

yes spec and theres - same way the market values any co in this trade - eg Coke, Domeq etc... brands will make up a large part of balance sheet

[blackcap]

quote:Originally posted by marinesalvor

yes spec and theres - same way the market values any co in this trade - eg Coke, Domeq etc... brands will make up a large part of balance sheet


Indeed but a balance sheet does not make a shareprice. That is where a lot of punters may get confused.

It is expected future cashflows that the company is expected to derive. Balance sheet means diddly squat as far as the valuation of a share is concerned. No matter how much your NTA is, if you cannot derive earnings you will be worth nothing.

[peat]

I have read a fair chunk of all this and the other thread.
At this stage I will just comment that I love their vodka...
Its way better than Smirnov and Absolut and probably up their with Chopin or Branvin. Tis pricey tho. Most clubs I go to dont pour it by default but they do increasingly have it available if you specifically ask for it (at about $1 more).
Also of interest - when I was in London a couple of months ago they were making wonderful Below 42 ****tails at a place in Notting Hill. So its all around the world for sure....

Dont own any shares in it. But do give them a fair chunk of my money. [:o)]

[$imon]

Would someone in the forum admin team switch off the censor thingee that *'s out every time someone writes c0cktail around here?

The word seems to come up quite often in this thread. Maybe there could be an exception for a specific word, unintentionally bleeped due to resemblence to some other less wholesome terms

[Capitalist]

I see FTB has just won an award for innovation and excellence from Cuisine magazine. Very appealing to the niche market/Ponsonby Road types with its "spring water from a secret location" in NZ being of AA quality and filtered 35 times....

They have a long way to go as far as marketing is concerned. Absolut Vanilia has become the "it" drink in New York after being featured on "Sex in the City" as the Absolut Hunk c*ocktail.

Agree with Minder-- this is not an investment for the faint of heart and good luck to you.

[Gryffyn]

Thanx Cap - now there's a nice way of saying each to their own. I think most FTB investors realise it's a risky venture. I also think FTB are doing alright in the marketing stakes. From nowhere they already have reasonable presence and a few key wins. Time will tell but at this stage many investors are in profit. What more could you want :-)

[Gryffyn]

More balanced comment without childish invective from BG. Risks and potential well highlighted:

[Gryffyn]

Brian Gaynor: Exporters have contrasting styles

21.08.2004
COMMENT
Auckland investors had the opportunity to observe two different corporate styles this week when Fisher & Paykel Appliances and 42 Below held their annual meetings.

The whiteware manufacturer is an old-style but highly successful exporter, which is celebrating its 70th birthday, whereas the vodka and gin company is young, brash and extremely confident.

The two companies are totally different in all aspects bar one; they are both trying to crack the United States market.

Fisher & Paykel Appliances' meeting at the Ellerslie Convention Centre opened with a visual presentation of its 70 years. It was established by Woolf Fisher and Maurice Paykel in 1934 with the sole intention of selling refrigerators imported from the US.

The company listed in 1979 after the sale of 4.8 million shares, representing 30 per cent of the company, by existing shareholders at $2 a share. The 25-year-old prospectus now looks incredibly dry, particularly when compared with last year's offering from 42 Below.

Fisher & Paykel's document had only 20 pages and there were no flashy statements or promises. At the $2 a share sale price, the company had a market capitalisation of $32 million compared with historic sales of $120 million and net earnings of $8.9 million.

As Fisher & Paykel achieved net earnings of $15.5 million in less than three years of listing, its shares were sold to the public on a historic price/earnings ratio of 3.6 and a prospective ratio, looking two full years forward, of 2.1. You don't get bargains like that these days.

The managing director was Don Rowlands, who sat proudly at the back of this week's meeting with Mainfreight's Bruce Plested. Gary Paykel, the non-executive chairman, was then head of marketing.

One of the directors was Sir Colin Maiden, who is still on the Fisher & Paykel Healthcare board. This reflects the group's stability and consistency.

Fisher & Paykel has come a long way during the past 25 years. Healthcare and Appliances had combined net earnings of $140 million in the latest March year and have a sharemarket value in excess of $2.4 billion. This growth has been achieved without any rights issues although there have been numerous share splits and bonus issues.

Although Healthcare and Appliances' shares were distributed on a pro rata basis to Fisher & Paykel shareholders, the latter is the clear standard bearer of the original company. It has 13,200 shareholders compared with Healthcare's 10,900 and there was a much bigger crowd at this week's meeting compared with Healthcare's, held four days earlier.

A damper was placed on the 70th birthday party when managing director John Bongard told shareholders "the overall group net profit after tax is expected to be around $80 million".

This compared with the annual report statement that "directors expect the 2004/05 result to be in line with that of the 2003/04 financial year [$85.3 million]".

The $5.3 million profit downgrade knocked Fisher & Paykel Appliances' share price from $4.68 to $4.20, or by $126 million, in the three days following the announcement.

The revision was due to cost increases, mainly steel and plastics, and an expected softening in New Zealand and Australian markets.

But the long-term growth of the group is highly dependent on the US market. In the March 2004 year, Appliances sold 1.197 million units and the main markets were Australia with 658,000 units or 55 per cent, New Zealand 300,000 (25.1 per cent) and the US 150,000 (12.5 per cent). Sales in the US have rise from 27,000 to 150,000 units during the past four years.

In recent months, Appliances has negotiated a new distribution arrangement with the 990-store Lowe's retail chain.

To facilitate this growth, it has doubled the size of warehousing facilities in California, Chicago and Vancouver and has committed to a new warehouse in Orlando, Florida.

In June and July, the first full months of the Lowe's arrangement, Fisher & Paykel sold 36,000 unit

[KJ]

TLA87

You asked me to elaborate on the flaws in your analysis.

Firstly, good on you for putting your analysis up for scrutiny.I agree that trying to value the coy is very subjective and difficult.
Some observations:

(1)You tend to dismiss gross margin as not too important.IMO if a coy can achieve a GM of say 50-60%,it seems hugely important because once fixed costs are covered a greater % of GM is going to drop to the bottom line.

eg
Sales 20m 40m
GM 50% 10m 20m

Variable costs(20%) 4m 8m
Fixed costs 3m 3m

Nett Profit 3m(15%) 9m(22.5%)

This is obviously an over simplification.However,along with other overheads,it would be reasonable to expect that costs such as marketing will fall(per case)as volumes increase significantly.

Note that the coy,in its publication dated 18/8/04 said that their overhead expenditure to margin ratio was $2.50 overheads to $1.00 margin at 31/3/04 -in the 4 mths trading sincs March this had fallen to $1.60 o/heads to $1.00 margin.

(2)It is wrong to compare 42B gross margin with other coys that are not in the same industry as they will have completely different cost structures.

(3)You concentrate on PE and ROI in valuing 42B which, for a start up coy in its first few yrs is a bit meaningless,although I guess there are two approaches:

-you can say 42B is way overpriced because of lack of earnings track record in this early stage of its developement,in which case you do not invest or

-you see the future potential and believe in the value that lies in intangibles such as brands,marketing skills etc.You expect sales to rise rapidly from 2006 onwards-a high PE is quite acceptable given the strong growth ahead.The coy is developing a track record of delivering and exceeding forecasts-its on track to make a profit.

Either approach is fine I guess depending on your investment style.

(4)You thought that NZ Wines and Spirits will be making a killing because of the huge sales growth.I guess it would depend on whether this issue it covered in their contract-it is up for renewal after 3 yrs.

My thoughts for what they are worth.

[marinesalvor]

not bad progress today - that 128k blockage at 55c has gone - lets go!

[blackcap]

quote:Originally posted by marinesalvor

not bad progress today - that 128k blockage at 55c has gone - lets go!


Plenty of buy side support too and not much on the sell. Wonder where Minder is today, or maybe I shouldnt ask.

FTB holders from the IPO now well in the money and probably just covering their cost of capital too.

Disc - small holding in warrants.

[Gryffyn]

I'd say he'd be sulking - FTB doing well and NZ having some success at the Olympics finally.

[craic]

Purchasers from the IPO are now showing 22.68% profit. if they sell at the current price. I will expect to double my outlay by March of next year

[thereslifeafter87]

KJ,

Thanks for the analysis.

You are right, gross margins are important, and as volume increases fixed costs will become a much smaller percentage of total sales, and variable costs should also decrease percentage wise as well.

I think you can value a company like FTB on the basis of forward PE ratios, so long as you can predict reasonably accurately what kind of net margins they will generate on expected sales.

I was being reasonably generous giving them a net margin of 15%. It is possible they could generate margins of 20% of sales, in which case they will do fantastically well. Of course this is not even close to being an accurate type of prediction. I was using a best case scenario (high margins, high sales growth) to illustrate my point.

My point is that there is one helluva lot of future growth already built in to FTB's price. Even if they do grow sales at the rate they have indicated, and make net margins of 15%, a rosy scenario indeed, the return on your investment - the share price growth, will not be considerable in relation to the risk you are taking that this scenario will come to fruition.

People are buying the dream, thinking that if it is achieved they will make megabucks. The reality is that your returns will not be outstanding.

Sure, if FTB continue to grow sales at 100% year after year after year to 2010 and beyond, your returns will be amazing. But what is the likelihood of this realistically?

[KJ]

TLA87-fair points-I am the first to acknowledge the risks of such an investment and hence it represents a small % of my portfolio.

IMO the best thing to come out of recent information is the fact that the GM is as high as it is.(50 or 60%)This is very positive.

It is now important for the coy to continue to meet/exceed forecasts-particularly the profit one.

You say "the reality is that your returns will not be outstanding"
No one can say this-it's unknown.

[thereslifeafter87]

KJ,

In the medium term (2-3 yrs) your returns will not be outstanding unless FTB is given a highly preferable valuation akin to Dotcom boom type prices. Thus we can say that it is unlikely your returns will be excellent.

The longer term is far more uncertain.

[peat]

quote:Originally posted by Gryffyn

The warrants are important because 42 Below has a high cash burn :D:D:D:D and the first series, which have to be exercised at 50 cents each in October 2005, should raise $12 million.

One of the objectives of Baker and Ross is to promote 42 Below from a share price point of view,;););) because the higher the price the more incentive there is to exercise the warrants.


the marked comments are pretty relevant to this whole discussion.
In my view they tend to highlight the 'style not substance' criticisms that this company receives

[spector]

I also think the discussion has raged between investors that buy stocks relying on 'intangibles' (marketing, seeing the product in bars and being talked about etc..) and investors that buy stock relying on 'tangibles' (bricks/mortar, past performance, share tracking software etc..)

In this case the 'intangible' investors have made the gains and the 'intangible' investors have lost out.

Sometimes it's the other way round, so one strategy is no better or worse than the other... it all depends on the stock.

That said, I know me and Longstrangle are feeling pretty good today:) I don't think we would mind Minder calling us Fools-To-Be:)

[pearljam]

Minder is unusually silent at present isn't he

[Gryffyn]

I wonder what humble pie tastes like?

[Placebo]

Hmmm, what's that saying about chickens hatching?

As a holder I'm naturally happy to finally be in the money on share price. And further, I hope that this is a sustainable position and not just some temporary aberration before it sinks back to its 43c position...

Crucial for these small cap stocks is to keep themselves in the market spotlight. They have been clever at creating such opportunities thus far, so I hope they can continue to do so, in order that they keep on the investment radar.

[spector]

quote:Originally posted by Placebo

Hmmm, what's that saying about chickens hatching?

As a holder I'm naturally happy to finally be in the money on share price. And further, I hope that this is a sustainable position and not just some temporary aberration before it sinks back to its 43c position...

Crucial for these small cap stocks is to keep themselves in the market spotlight. They have been clever at creating such opportunities thus far, so I hope they can continue to do so, in order that they keep on the investment radar.


hmmmm... wise advice. I bet you're quite a good dad.

[Gryffyn]

True Placebo and Spector. Could easily drop below 50c and then my options will be worth less. Hard to have the last laugh on the share market so perhaps bet to keep head down.

[Placebo]

Thanks Spec. Perhaps you have read my book... http://www.richdad.com/


I wish...

[OutToLunch]

Yes, very wise gryffyn -- remember our friend littletee pushing GLO on the ASX side? Haven't seen him since!

I've been watching FTB since they floated, but I'm too chicken-livered to buy any shares. It's an interesting lesson just watching anyways, certainly it is a very high-risk/high reward scenario ahead. Well done those who took a punt and didn't panic at the beginning. :)

[Gryffyn]

Even more well done to those who bought after the IPO when it was in the doldrums.

It was bound to have a rise after I sold my head shares ;) Still got dem options though.

[KJ]

TLA87-we are all using a number of assumptions and no one knows whether the returns will be outstanding or not.
Little point in continuing to debate whether the nett margin will be 15% or 25%-time will tell.

[Footsie]

I have noticed FTB being sold over here in the UK now

Quite a few of the large clubs and bars are now stocking it.

Plenty of Kiwis and AUssies over here that know what it is and drink it.
UK is a huge market.
The pub i drank it in last night say they have replaced their top shelf Vodka with 42Below.
Interesting stuff

[mikescott]

Really, Footsie?:D

And you are really in/from the UK too? ;);););)

There will only be one group smiling and laughing at the rest of you Fools-To-Be at the end of this episode of spin - the vendors.

And they are already laughing as they sip their champagne at how many fools-to-be there are out there.

Shane McKillen must be laughing himself silly! Almost as happy as Peter Francis was when he sold Force Corporation to Sky City!:D

Be one of those to set up a company, get a contract to distribute the product in the States, the company pays for expenses, enjoy a great lifestyle there and then, sell the contract back to the company for US$1.3 millions.

They must be wondering what other angle they can squeeze a few more dollars out of you fools-to-be before the vodka runs out. I think that's the spin running out.:D[:p][:p][:p]

[spector]

quote:Originally posted by minder


Shane McKillen must be laughing himself silly! Almost as happy as Peter Francis was when he sold Force Corporation to Sky City!:D

Be one of those to set up a company, get a contract to distribute the product in the States, the company pays for expenses, enjoy a great lifestyle there and then, sell the contract back to the company for US$1.3 millions.




it was my understanding that Shane Mckillen had been financing the US market with his own capital... this was the reason for setting up the contract in the first place. Am I right about this?

Seeing as Shane isn't the only partner involved in 42 BELOW it would seem strange for the other partners to voluntarily pay him out 1.3 million for nothing. Afterall the company has to be in good profit for people to exercise their warrents... i can't see why they would take money out of the company if it wasn't for a good reason

[trendy]

GREED = GOOD REASON

[mikescott]

Try telling that to the vendors of Strathmore/Kachingo, Certified Organics and RMG! Why should the other partners allow one partner to sell and take money out? :D

But that's okay for FTB as FTB = Fools-To-Be and the vendors will continue to take their individual share of $$$$ out of you fools-to-be. ;)

First $35 millions in goodwill for a start-up (fools already), then good living off the company and now, US$1.3 millions for buying back a distribution contract! [:p][:p][:p]

[spector]

Is there anyone from Dorchester on the forum? can you tell us what the deal was with Shane McKillens contract? Was he financing the US market from his own pocket?

[nottiger]

quote:Originally posted by KJ

TLA87-we are all using a number of assumptions and no one knows whether the returns will be outstanding or not.

mmmmmmm...........And a thing to consider - in a fashion brand product like FTB -is whether there is a "critical mass" of sales needed to sustain sales after the glow of new-ness wears off, and teh associated publicity, and the trendy set move on to the next hot drink!

I have no idea but seems there is a danger of boom bust???

[The Doctor]

Minder you are the bearer of 'logic;' once again that no one wants to know about!watch and learn.

[mikescott]

Plenty of warnings just like RMG, the dot-coms, Strathmore/Kachingo, Spectrum but the company is spinning and the rampers are too busy ramping and the fools-to-be too greedy to notice -

- $35 million goodwill for a start-up, effectively transferring wealth from new shareholders to the vendor.

- US$1.3 millions paid for distribution contract, more transfer of wealth.

But all yes, Fools-to-be believe that this company will be worth heaps when it eventually makes money. How so? [}:)]

[Qwerty]

How so...This time it's different

[mikescott]

quote:Originally posted by Qwerty


How so...This time it's different


That's right! :D:D:D

Exactly what was said about all the dot-com stocks and about Kachingo! [:p][:p][:p][:p][:p]

[Footsie]

Minder

I dont appreciate your comments thanks with regard to me making things up.

Unlike V when frucor tried to market that over here. 42B DOES have a presence in UK clubs and bars, and surely that is half the battle.

The only place i can remember seeing V was at Waterloo station....in 2001

Yes there is plenty of hype, but they are ahead of prospectus forecasts....so stop dissin FTB mon

yah probably just kicking yourself u didnt buy any options when they fell to 12c.

FTSE

[mikescott]

Footsie, yes, just like I regret buying RMG when it was 20 cents and then went to 38 cents before [xx(]. Or Strathmore or Kachingo or Spectrum etc.

You haven't answered the question - you really from the UK? [}:)]

That's the great thing about fools-to-be : everyone is spinning along with the company and hoodwinking one another. :D:D:D

Birds of a feather fly together. ;)

[Gryffyn]

Ah look, that whiney echo is back.

[Placebo]

Hey Minder, Helen Clark had a good description for your ilk, pulled out out to describer the hikoi-ers: Haters and wreckers. that's you to a tee me old son.

What was it Shakespeare wrote: Methinks he doth protest too much...

[mikescott]

Reminds me of the same sort of descriptions thrown at those who warned against RMG, Strathmore, Eforce, Spectrum etc. :D:D:D:D

Keep spinning - it's great entertainment. [:p]

[Gryffyn]

Ah look - up a 1c this morning - all hail mindless.

[mikescott]

Ah look - RMG up 5 cents! (from 25 to 30 before [xx(])

Ah look - more and more sellers building up and buyers thinning out.:D

Let's see if Direct's 100T to buy at 51c is really there when the share price gets close to it. On historical evidence, Direct will disappear so fast that a new track record will be set! [:p]

[marinesalvor]

Minder - your cutting and pasting of the same old messages has just taken a memorable turn - recycling 6 month old messages when normally you just repeat yourself from the previous day

[mikescott]

Spin is spin - doesn't matter who it is from.

So I am happy to repeat the same message too, fools-to-be.[}:)]

Ah look - the price is getting closer to Direct's 100T to buy at 51c. [:p]

[floyd]

gets a little tedious and boring after a while minder and i dont even hold ftb.....

[Gryffyn]

The perfect example of a bore - mindless.

[mikescott]

That's what they were writing and saying about anyone who warned about dot-coms, RMG, Spectrum, Strathmore/Kachingo etc.[^]

Very very very happy to be boring rather than be a fool-to-be. :D

[marinesalvor]

and I guess you have nothing better to do than to hang out on this thread... dispensing your advice

[Gryffyn]

Minder - enlighten us - how do you value a company like FTB that is really only a marketing plan and a collection of management with the know-how to drive that plan?

Isn't this what the sharemarket is partly about - allowing people with ideas to raise capital to develop a business which they could not otherwise do from own funds or interest based loans?

Tell us exactly why FTB - currently in profit for holders - is so bad when it is achieving all advertised benchmarks in prospectus?

If you had a good idea (or perhaps stole one) how would you raise cash to realise its value?

Waiting...

[mikescott]

That's right - that's what the sharemarket is for.

Share price does not equal what a compay is worth - short term sentiment rules. And sentiment can be influenced by spin.

Try National Mail, Aquaria 21, Feverpitch, Spectrum, Eforce, Kachingo as great ideas sold to fools-to-be. Heck, people actually made money out of them before they [xx(]

[Footsie]

TO answer your question Minder No I am not from the UK.

I am a kiwi living in the UK.....but imsure u are asking only to stir

If FTB turns out to be a great success and gets bought out by Danone or someone. Then who will lose out. You or me.?
Every investment has its risks. Simple mate. Higher the risk, higher the return. Finance 101.
Im sure nobody here has their entire p/f in FTB.

[Burgerbun]

quote:Originally posted by minder


That's what they were writing and saying about anyone who warned about dot-coms, RMG, Spectrum, Strathmore/Kachingo etc.[^]

Very very very happy to be boring rather than be a fool-to-be. :D



YAWNNNNNNN[:0]

Just like you warned us about GPG before they put on 40%:D:D:D:D:D:D
how are your crumbs and golden handshakes now?

[mikescott]

Ah look, Cloudcuckooland John Davy #2 is back to confirm his status as a fool-already!

Welcome to the thread of fools-to-be.;)

And still tangling himself up about timing of investments, no doubt - as in 200% plus gain in NOG in a year is nothing because CCL John Davy #2 got it sooooooooooooooo wrong.:D

Cloudcuckooland John Davy #2 wanders the wilderness and keeps saying to himself he did not get NOG wrong BIG TIME - even as it continues to put on 40% after 40%.[:p]

Very very satisfying to watch NOG soar ever higher as Cloudcuckooland John Davy #2 goes back to kindergarten to learn about 'timing is everything!':D:D:D

[Gryffyn]

minder - still waiting for an explanation on how to value a start-up...

[mikescott]

quote:Originally posted by Gryffyn

minder - still waiting for an explanation on how to value a start-up...


Simple - for a start, you don't price in goodwill as it is a start-up. Then, you give options to the vendors based upon performance (KPI) criteria.

Even a freshly graduated Commerce student knows that.

Only mugs like fools-to-be pay $35m goodwill for a start-up, and then pay another US$1.3 millions for buying back a distribution contract from one of the vendors.

[marinesalvor]

Minder; "Try National Mail, Aquaria 21, Feverpitch, Spectrum, Eforce, Kachingo as great ideas sold to fools-to-be. Heck, people actually made money out of them before they "

I guess you dont understand branding or marketing Minder

hard to compare any of these brands with 42B - 42B is actually known outside of its creators office and its promoters do understand the marketing concept and the cash that is required to build a brand

[mikescott]

quote:Originally posted by marinesalvor

Minder; "Try National Mail, Aquaria 21, Feverpitch, Spectrum, Eforce, Kachingo as great ideas sold to fools-to-be. Heck, people actually made money out of them before they "

I guess you dont understand branding or marketing Minder

hard to compare any of these brands with 42B - 42B is actually known outside of its creators office and its promoters do understand the marketing concept and the cash that is required to build a brand


Likewise, Kachingo had squillions brand-building. :D

[marinesalvor]

dont make me laugh - squillions - complete bull-sh*t

there is no comparison between the two in startegy or execution

I presume you are a teenager minder with not a lot of business experience

[Golfer]

This is a great thread. Its reminds me of a Hagler/Durant fight many years ago.
Disc. holder from IPO. So go FTB!!!

[Placebo]

More like handbags at nine paces. Nothing more satisfying than seeing someone trying hopelessly trying to defend the indefensible.

Not waving but drowning, eh Minder ;)

Pretty clear difference between FTB and the others mentioned are that FTB aren't just selling a concept or some new way of doing business, they are selling a tangible product into a mature and very large market, and seem to be making some inroads. And they are doing it with cutting edge marketing and a healthy wallop of humour.

Besides, it's all good fun. And what can be more fun than being in the money through the good folk at FTB. The only ones left licking their wounds are those, like Minder, who haven't had the foresight to take the punt.

To quote BrotherCoy: "Suckerrssss! HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA!!!!!!

[Gryffyn]

Well put Placebo. mindless is so divorced from reality and facts, not mention good manners, that I must resolve to waste less time reacting to him.

[mikescott]

So says the fools-to-be who believes a start-up can have goodwill of $35m. [:p]:D:D:D[:p]

[mikescott]

And I am soooooooooooooo sorry I did not take the punt on Strathmore/Kachingo, Davnet, Solution 6, RMG .....:D

Especially RMG when it went from 15 cents to 38 cents! My heart is breaking.....just breaking!;)

Ah yes, just down another cent to 53 cents with a recent buyer at 51 cents trying to lock in some profit before [xx(]

Please help him out by buying off him ayt 54 cents - cheap![:p]

[spector]

[/quote]

Likewise, Kachingo had squillions brand-building. :D
[/quote]


Have to agree with Marinesalvor on this one. Kachingo did spend a fair bit on branding... but Kachingo didn't even work in NZ. 42 BELOW have spent alot less on branding but already it's got NZ and is starting to get a fair bit of the rest of the world. So probably not a very good analogy.

[spector]

quote:Originally posted by minder


Ah yes, just down another cent to 53 cents with a recent buyer at 51 cents trying to lock in some profit before [xx(]

Please help him out by buying off him ayt 54 cents - cheap![:p]


yep you're right there Minder, head shares down 3.6% today (although on very lite trading) but the A and B Warrants are both up 9.5% and 10% respectively. (although also on very lite trading). So i think if anything todays trading indicates a belief in the future of the company. But with such lite trading it could mean nothing at all.

[mikescott]

Now just keep an eye on that 100T to buy at 51c by Direct - that same 100T has gone up from 47c to 48c to 49c to 50c to 51c with no intention by the buyer to buy. There's a term for that kind of behaviour.:D

Now watch as a punter who bought 200T recently at 46 and 47 cents start taking his profits and hitting the bids. Will Direct be there at 51c to get hit?

Or will Direct do the usual and turn tail and actually sell first before the 51c gets hit?

Good one, Direct. ;)

[Footsie]

Minder

Do you have access to FUll depth?

IF so, that means you must be a broker.

Or else how do you know its direct on the bid all time.
could be anyone. even UBS or someone mucking around.

[blackcap]

quote:Originally posted by Footsie

Minder

Do you have access to FUll depth?

IF so, that means you must be a broker.

Or else how do you know its direct on the bid all time.
could be anyone. even UBS or someone mucking around.



Footsie mate, he probably rings and asks his broker who it is. I do it too sometimes if I want to find out who the buyer/seller is.
Most brokers are only to happy to oblige.

[mikescott]

52c and getting close to Direct turning tail and selling. :D

[Gryffyn]

Yawn, the whiney conspiracy-theory echo is back again.

[Capitalist]

You should be grateful for Minder's info instead of just dissing him all the time.

You don't know who he is, and he certainly isn't mindless.

Man some people are dumb.

[KJ]

Yes-I am very grateful that he calls me a fool every time I post.Very helpful to my understanding of FTB.

[Gryffyn]

Bollocks cap! I'm grateful to anyone who enages in reasonable debate/discussion, whether or not I agree with them. Plenty of posters add a lot of value to this site and do it in an informative or humorous manor. mindless - the latest incarnation of a previously banned poster - mainly insults and spams.

Sure, he might have some good insight on stuff but whenever he's invisted to explain or discuss he usually just rants and attacks people. Perhaps if he grew up a little more people would listen or at least engage.

[Placebo]

Refusing to engage seems to me the best way to deal with him/her/it:D

[Placebo]

Oops, I mean [:p]:D:D:D[:p]

[mikescott]

As expected, Direct's 100T to buy at 51c has disappeared ...poof ...like the hot air that FTB is. :D

You fools-to-be better enjoy the spin and entertainment while you can. Soon there will only be spin left. [:p]

[Gryffyn]

and the profit in my back pocket.

[spector]

quote:Originally posted by minder


52c and getting close to Direct turning tail and selling. :D



Ha ha! nice one minder! Not only have you got a conspiracy therory for Direct broking selling.....

[spector]

quote:Originally posted by minder


As expected, Direct's 100T to buy at 51c has disappeared ...poof ...like the hot air that FTB is. :D

You fools-to-be better enjoy the spin and entertainment while you can. Soon there will only be spin left. [:p]


.... you've also got a conspiracy theory for them buying! All in the space of one day!

[mikescott]

Now we know why you are a fool-to-be, Spector! :D

[Capitalist]

quote:Originally posted by Gryffyn

and the profit in my back pocket.


Just like Sons of Gwalia. What a great investment that was. :D

Some sheeple were surprised when the spin ran out there too.[:o)]

[spector]

quote:Originally posted by minder

Now we know why you are a fool-to-be, Spector! :D


damn! I love this forum!:)

[mikescott]

Me too![:p]

Do you have any idea what kind of mugs you guys are being taken for by the vendors?

Kind of reminds me of the multitude who worshipped at the feet of Eric Watson and even whilst he was 'screwing' them, they were begging for more! :D

[Liberty]

Damn fine drop of vodka though.

[mikescott]

quote:Originally posted by Capitalist


quote:Originally posted by Gryffyn

and the profit in my back pocket.


Just like Sons of Gwalia. What a great investment that was. :D

Some sheeple were surprised when the spin ran out there too.[:o)]


So amusing, isn't it, Cap to see the old saying about 'those with eyes but choose not to see' in action here with fools-to-be?

Case 1 : they argue it is a start-up so forget about profits but concentrate on revenues. Let's agree on that - it's a start-up. But then, as a start-up, where did the goodwill of $35 millions come from? Start-ups do not have goodwill.

Case 2 : so revenues grow and FTB pays Shane McKillen US$1.3 millions for the distribution contract in the US. Heck, he is one of the vendors who received plenty of that goodwill value in the first place and he has a distribution contract as well! Good one, Shane.

Case 3 : Direct and Access play games with the fools-to-be by ramping the shares up by piling on bids below market - 100,000 here, 50,000 there etc. Fools-to-be pile in believing the bids are for real and push the share price higher. Direct and Access sells to them and when others join the selling, Direct and Access piled-on-bids disappear into thin air. Poof! Thin Air. Hot air like the spin.

This was illustrated with the 100,000 to buy at 51c by Direct in the last few days which disappeared very quickly when the selling got to 52 cents. And Spector can't even understand that! :D

These guys are being played for mugs and instead of being objective, they pile on the spin to one another![xx(]

BTW - you want full depth, give your broker a call. I recommend FNZC and Forbar very strongly. Be specific and ask - who is buying, in what volumes, at what levels, are they also on the sell side, etc. If he is any good, he will give you a feel very quickly as to what's happening.;)

[mikescott]

The vendors and directors are happy to supply fools-to-be with stock.:D:D:D

Come and get it, you mugs. [:p][:p][:p]
----------------------------------------------------------------------

The following disclosure notices have been provided:

A. Disclosure obligation: Ongoing disclosure

B. Preliminary
1. Name: Geoff Ross
2. NZX company code of issuer: FTB
Name of issuer: 42 Below Limited
3. Name of related body corporate (if applicable):
4. Position you hold in the issuer: Director
5. Date of this disclosure notice: 2 September 2004

C. Nature of relevant interest
6. Name of registered holder(s) of security: Geoffrey Ross, Justine Ross and Darren Abernathey as trustees of the Ross Family Trust
7. Class and type of security: Ordinary Shares, Series 1 Warrants and Series 2 Warrants
8. Nature of relevant interest in security: Control arising as a trustee of the Ross Family Trust.

E. Transaction
10. Date of last disclosure: 17 October 2003
11. Date(s) of acquisition(s) or disposal(s): 30 & 31 August 2004
12. Number of transactions: -
13. Nature or type of transaction: Off market disposal
14. Consideration: $295,000
15. Number of securities held prior, set out by class and type: 41,394,989 fully paid ordinary shares; 6,900,000 series 1 warrants; 6,900,000 series 2 warrants
16. Number of securities subject to acquisition or disposal: 608,695 fully paid ordinary shares

F. Extent of relevant interest
17. Number of securities held now, set out by class and type: 40,786,294 fully paid ordinary shares; 6,900,000 series 1 warrants; 6,900,000 series 2 warrants.


A. Disclosure obligation: Ongoing disclosure

B. Preliminary
1. Name: Brent Douglas King
2. NZX company code of issuer: FTB
Name of issuer: 42 Below Limited
3. Name of related body corporate (if applicable):
4. Position you hold in the issuer: Director
5. Date of this disclosure notice: 2 September 2004

C. Nature of relevant interest
6. Name of registered holder(s) of security: Snowdon Peak Investments Limited
7. Class and type of security: Ordinary Shares, Series 1 Warrants and Series 2 Warrants
8. Nature of relevant interest in security: Deemed relevant interest arising form 100% shareholding in Snowdon Peak Investments Limited, which holds securities.

E. Transaction
10. Date of last disclosure: 7 May 2004
11. Date(s) of acquisition(s) or disposal(s): 30 & 31 August 2004
12. Number of transactions: 2
13. Nature or type of transaction: On and off market disposal
14. Consideration: $121,750
15. Number of securities held prior, set out by class and type: 237,000 ordinary shares; 33,334 series 1 warrants; 33,334 series 2 warrants
16. Number of securities subject to acquisition or disposal: 250,000 ordinary shares

F. Extent of relevant interest
17. Number of securities held now, set out by class and type: 487,000 ordinary shares; 33,334 series 1 warrants; 33,334 series 2 warrants.


A. Disclosure obligation: Ongoing disclosure

B. Preliminary
1. Name: Grant Dalton
2. NZX company code of issuer: FTB
Name of issuer: 42 Below Limited
3. Name of related body corporate (if applicable):
4. Position you hold in the issuer: Director
5. Date of this disclosure notice: 2 September 2004

C. Nature of relevant interest
6. Name of registered holder(s) of security: Grant Stanley Dalton, Graeme Bruce Clark as trustees of the GS Dalton Family Trust
7. Class and type of security: Ordinary Shares, Series 1 Warrants and Series 2 Warrants
8. Nature of relevant interest in security: Control arising as a trustee of the Ross Family Trust.

E. Transaction
10. Date of last disclosure: 17 October 2004
11. Date(s) of acquisition(s) or disposal(s): 30 August 2004
12. Number of transactions: -
13. Nature or type of transaction: Off market disposal
14. Consideration: $50,000
15. Number of securities held prior, set out by class and type: 150,000 fully paid ordinary shares; 525,000 series 1 warrants; 525,000 series 2 warrants
16. Number of securities

[spector]

quote:Originally posted by minder


This was illustrated with the 100,000 to buy at 51c by Direct in the last few days which disappeared very quickly when the selling got to 52 cents. And Spector can't even understand that! :D





This is quite true. I'm a novice sharetrader and have limited understanding of the internal politicing of sharebroker companies. Quite a few of the posts on this forum go right over my head.

But I don't give my money away lightly. So before I bought into 42 I did a truckload of research... not by wrestling with figures and sharebrokers but by talking to other hospitality people in Auckland, Wellington, Sydney and Melborne.

The frontline for a spirit is always the guy behind the bar... and the feeling amongst hospo people then (and still) is that 42 is going to be the next big thing.

I was even lucky enough to spend some time with a couple of bartenders from New York a couple of months ago... who were saying the same thing. 42 has got a little cult following in the US already... one of the guys even said he gets requests for 42 most nights... not just from other americans but from the londoners that fly to NY for weekends. Remember, these guys are americans.. not kiwis.. but they are all saying the same thing.

This is the reason i'm so confident about 42.

The product is good and has won some very prestigous awards in Europe. Awards judged by people who have no association with the company or even New Zealand. On top of that their marketing is so spot on for who they are targetting their product too.

My understanding of the sharemarket may be limited... but i worked in bars for a long time.. and these guys are doing everything right.

[mikescott]

That's right, Spector, these guys are doing everything right:D:D:D.

Especially spinning so well that they are able to talk the prospects up and sell FTB shares for a whopping $35 millions goodwill, pay Shane McKillen US$1.3 millions for buying back the US distribution and now, selling stock to all those who happily swallow the spin.

Ably helped by some ramping by Direct and Access so who are behind those blatant ramps? I hope Lambton brings this to the notice of the Security Commission to investigate.

The directors and vendors selling have only sold 958,895 shares in the last couple of weeks so far and have another 43,000,000 to feed you hungry punters.

Come and get it, you mugs [:p].

---------------------------------------------------------------------

The following disclosure notices have been provided:

A. Disclosure obligation: Ongoing disclosure

B. Preliminary
1. Name: Geoff Ross
2. NZX company code of issuer: FTB
Name of issuer: 42 Below Limited
3. Name of related body corporate (if applicable):
4. Position you hold in the issuer: Director
5. Date of this disclosure notice: 2 September 2004

C. Nature of relevant interest
6. Name of registered holder(s) of security: Geoffrey Ross, Justine Ross and Darren Abernathey as trustees of the Ross Family Trust
7. Class and type of security: Ordinary Shares, Series 1 Warrants and Series 2 Warrants
8. Nature of relevant interest in security: Control arising as a trustee of the Ross Family Trust.

E. Transaction
10. Date of last disclosure: 17 October 2003
11. Date(s) of acquisition(s) or disposal(s): 30 & 31 August 2004
12. Number of transactions: -
13. Nature or type of transaction: Off market disposal
14. Consideration: $295,000
15. Number of securities held prior, set out by class and type: 41,394,989 fully paid ordinary shares; 6,900,000 series 1 warrants; 6,900,000 series 2 warrants
16. Number of securities subject to acquisition or disposal: 608,695 fully paid ordinary shares

F. Extent of relevant interest
17. Number of securities held now, set out by class and type: 40,786,294 fully paid ordinary shares; 6,900,000 series 1 warrants; 6,900,000 series 2 warrants.


A. Disclosure obligation: Ongoing disclosure

B. Preliminary
1. Name: Brent Douglas King
2. NZX company code of issuer: FTB
Name of issuer: 42 Below Limited
3. Name of related body corporate (if applicable):
4. Position you hold in the issuer: Director
5. Date of this disclosure notice: 2 September 2004

C. Nature of relevant interest
6. Name of registered holder(s) of security: Snowdon Peak Investments Limited
7. Class and type of security: Ordinary Shares, Series 1 Warrants and Series 2 Warrants
8. Nature of relevant interest in security: Deemed relevant interest arising form 100% shareholding in Snowdon Peak Investments Limited, which holds securities.

E. Transaction
10. Date of last disclosure: 7 May 2004
11. Date(s) of acquisition(s) or disposal(s): 30 & 31 August 2004
12. Number of transactions: 2
13. Nature or type of transaction: On and off market disposal
14. Consideration: $121,750
15. Number of securities held prior, set out by class and type: 237,000 ordinary shares; 33,334 series 1 warrants; 33,334 series 2 warrants
16. Number of securities subject to acquisition or disposal: 250,000 ordinary shares

F. Extent of relevant interest
17. Number of securities held now, set out by class and type: 487,000 ordinary shares; 33,334 series 1 warrants; 33,334 series 2 warrants.


A. Disclosure obligation: Ongoing disclosure

B. Preliminary
1. Name: Grant Dalton
2. NZX company code of issuer: FTB
Name of issuer: 42 Below Limited
3. Name of related body corporate (if applicable):
4. Position you hold in the issuer: Director
5. Date of this disclosure notice: 2 September 2004

C. Nature of relevant interest
6. Name of registered holder(s) of security: Grant Stanley Dalton, Graeme Bruce Clark as trustees of the GS Dalton

[winner69]

quote:Originally posted by Capitalist


quote:Originally posted by Gryffyn

and the profit in my back pocket.


Just like Sons of Gwalia. What a great investment that was. :D

Some sheeple were surprised when the spin ran out there too.[:o)]


At SGW the spin ran out .... and by the sounds of it the much vaunted gold reserves didn't exist to the degree they were saying

And the b;okes behind SGW did very well over the years


Meaning for FTB????????

[miner]

With depth look at the number of buyers(or sellers) at each level rather than how many a single buyer wants.

Cheers
Miner

[danchop]

ok minder,ive read your posts for the last 3-4 weeks and youve made me paranoid,so ive just sold all my heads and wa warrants which ive had from start up,keeping wb warrants just in case,hope i can feel easy about it if it does turn sour

[clearasmud]

Its confusing.
It says disposal but the holdings have increased.

[beacon]

good to see IRG offering Free South Gin with their newsletter subscriptions

[mikescott]

quote:Originally posted by danchop

ok minder,ive read your posts for the last 3-4 weeks and youve made me paranoid,so ive just sold all my heads and wa warrants which ive had from start up,keeping wb warrants just in case,hope i can feel easy about it if it does turn sour


What! And give up on the $10.00 per share that FTB will be in a year's time? ;)

Just like Kachingo was going to be worth billions when ASB and Direct promoted it to some of their clients. Lucky them - fancy being offered great opportunities like that to make BIG money.

Or is it unlucky to be sucked into losing money?

[beacon]

good point minder. kachingo did lose big time. wonder whether the liquidator has had any cash to distribute after the spin-off?[?]

[marinesalvor]

confirmed the CUB deal today - am pretty happy - will start to prowl the Asia pac airport duty free for signs of FTB...

[Gryffyn]

42 Below Limited
Data is live



FTB
10/09/2004
GENERAL

REL: 1237 HRS 42 Below Limited

GENERAL: FTB: FTB announce distribution agreements in Aus and USA

Auckland, Friday 10 September 2004: 42 BELOW Announces confirmation that
Carlton and United Beverages will take on distribution and sales in
Australia, and the purchase of it's successful USA Direct Sales organisation.

An agreement has been signed this week that will see Carlton & United
Beverages take on the distribution and sales of 42 BELOW Vodka and SOUTH Gin
in Australia.

CUB, part of the Foster's Group of companies, is Australia's leading beverage
business and sees the inclusion of these brands as a vital addition to its
multi-beverage portfolio which spans, beer, cider, wine, spirits and non
alcohol beverages. CUB is also Australia's biggest distributor of alcohol
brands with a national sales force and direct contact with more than 20,000
outlets.

Now with 42 BELOW and SOUTH, CUB will have a full premium beverage offering
in its white spirits range. For 42 BELOW this will mean greater reach into
the growing Australian market and improved operating efficiencies.

This agreement follows an announcement earlier this year that sister company,
Foster's Brewing International, would take responsibility for Duty Free sales
and distribution of 42 BELOW brands across the Duty Free Market in Australia
and the Pacific.

Negotiations with CUB were signalled in an earlier disclosure in August 2004.
42 BELOW confirms these discussions have now reached a satisfying conclusion
for both parties.

42 BELOW today confirmed it's announcement of 18 August that it will purchase
the business of Collinsville Securities Limited, the USA direct sales
organisation set up to develop the USA market for 42 Below by one of 42
BELOW's founding shareholders, Shane McKillen.

Based on an agency agreement struck between 42 BELOW and Collinsville prior
to listing the purchase price is USD $1,296,000. The original agency
agreement contained a payment structure for any future buy out. The purchase
price will be payable in two equal instalments on 15 October 2004 and 15
April 2005.

42 BELOW is confident in the growth of USA sales and believe it is therefore
financially prudent to complete the transaction sooner rather than later.
Currently US case sales are averaging annualised volume of 36,000 per annum
and if 42 BELOW waited until volumes were at 100,000 cases per annum the
transaction would cost US$3.6m.

42 BELOW'S expansion in its US distribution arrangements, followed the
appointment in March of Pearl Beverages as its new exclusive US importer,
which creates more efficiencies. 42 BELOW believes that it's USA market will
be run more effectively with 42 BELOW working directly with Pearl Beverages
on all matters.

Shane McKillen will work under contract for 42 BELOW and will remain in
charge of the USA market.

ENDS

For further information contact:

Geoff Ross
Phone: +64 021 424219
Email: geoff@42below.co.nz
End CA:00104934 For:FTB Type:GENERAL Time:2004-09-10:12:37:47



Site design, Hosting, Trading solution, NZX and ASX information supplied by Iguana2

[Gryffyn]

Surprised mindless hasn't seized on this one yet. Worth further investigation - would like to see details of said agreement and what a later buy-out would cost. SP still holding up there.

[$imon]

The buyout of Collinsville was briefly discussed at the AGM. The price is relative to how well the company is performing.

If they are selling cr@ploads in the US, then they pay more. Their forecasts suggest that said cr@ploads will be acheived faster than anticipated. Therefore to gain control of the distribution and keep some more of the margin ($2/bottle) for themselves, they decided it would be better to complete the transaction now and pay US$1.2 instead of US$3m+ as would be the case if sales kept growing the way they are. Looks like a performance based incentive to me.

So if it was really a buddy deal then wouldn't they have waited until the price was even higher to milk the shareholders as minder puts it?

Either that or the ship is sinking and they are getting as much as possible out while they can. But this doesn't appear to be the case.

If sales keep growing as projected, then US$1.2 will be a bargain in a few years. As will the current shareprice.

The price of Collinsville is theoretically indicative of the sales performance, ie more is better!

$imon

[Gryffyn]

Hey minder, what's your take on the latest anouncements?

[Snow Leopard]

quote:Originally posted by Gryffyn

Hey minder, what's your take on the latest anouncements?


Minder has been very quiet since Access went bust. Hopefully he is only on holiday :)

[marinesalvor]

minder is probably helping access with their enquiries

[The Doctor]

Great analysis by minder.Proves you can lead FTB to 'vodka' and get them so drunk they can't recognise reality....how perceptive is that?

[Gryffyn]

Just a coincidence that since the Access debacle we've had no posts from minder? He was always vitriolic with regard to Direct and JB Ware...

[spector]

Just got sent this from Google Alert:

http://straitstimes.asia1.com.sg/columnist/0,1886,168-272196,00.html

It's bad that they are still not getting enough 42 Below to Singapore duty free... but good that the local media are talking about how they are not getting enough 42 Below to Singapore duty free.

[marinesalvor]

nice little story - i was in Singapore airport a few weeks ago and asked them for 42B - they all looked mystified... ended up getting another bottle arriving in Auckland

Still concerned about not seeing it at any of the 3 aussie airports I have been in over the last month - hopefully the CUB deal will sort that out

[Gryffyn]

let them know MS - a frequent travellor like yourself could be the ideal mystery shopper for them, who knows, you might score some freebies.

[marinesalvor]

half the time they have someone on this thread - I know that they rushed to get product into the east auckland stores after I complained I couldnt get any

[Footsie]

I just went to the 42below website.
interesting site .....

but, I had a look through the locations where 42below was sold in London..... unbelievable... hundreds!

They even have it at my local pub in Marylebone high street!!!

[spector]

ha ha! just got sent this in the emails!

http://www.42below.co.nz/flashad/fosters.html

[marinesalvor]

superb Spec - does make you wonder if the aussies do just see kiwis as hoodie wearing bludgers!

[Gryffyn]

bloody brilliant ad! wish it was on tv!

shame the access debacle has taken down mindless so we could hear him tell us what fools we are some more.

[Capitalist]

Well I wish someone would tell me where I could buy this product in the Eastern Suburbs of Auckland. The only place I have found it is in Tairua.

Minder is not "mindless" he is a highly intelligent man with whom I have conversed privately. If he has lost his job I feel sorry for him. With his ability I am sure he will be moving on up.

[marinesalvor]

Cappy - I have ranted and raved till its in most places in the east - the old skating rink place in Aviemore Drive has most of the varieties

Having got them to stock it I now get mine duty free as am travelling so much....

[Gryffyn]

quote:Originally posted by Capitalist

Well I wish someone would tell me where I could buy this product in the Eastern Suburbs of Auckland. The only place I have found it is in Tairua.

Minder is not "mindless" he is a highly intelligent man with whom I have conversed privately. If he has lost his job I feel sorry for him. With his ability I am sure he will be moving on up.


Indeed, any job loss that is due to others actions is to be regretted.

mindless is however an apt description of his behaviour on this thread. intelligent or otherwise, a certain amount of netiquette is appreciated on sites such as these and he's failed in that area quite outstandingly.

Tairua is a long-way east of Auckland but much prettier. If this weather holds it could be a good summer on the Coromandel

[Bubble Boy]

Now this is a great concept.....

Assault weapon maker launches vodka line.
Inventor of the AK-47 rifle decides to extend his brand by selling booze to go with guns.
LONDON (Reuters) - The creator of one of the world's most famous guns, the AK-47 assault rifle, launched another weapon in Britain Monday: Kalashnikov vodka.

Lieutenant General Mikhail Kalashnikov, who invented the AK-47 after being shot by German soldiers during World War II, said he wanted to continue "the good name" of his gun.

"I've always wanted to improve and expand on the good name of my weapon by doing good things," he told Reuters Television.

"So we decided to create a vodka under my name. And we wanted that vodka to be better than anything made, up until now, in both Russia and England."

The Kalashnikov rifle has become the weapon of choice for guerrillas and gangsters across the world. But Kalashnikov said his original intentions for the gun were purely patriotic.


"I did not create the gun for international conflicts, I created it to protect the borders of my country," he said.

"It is not my fault that it has been spread all over the world. It is its reliability and its simplicity that have taken it all over the world."

Promoters of Kalashnikov vodka say it is "made from grain harvested in Russia and water drawn from Lake Ladoga north of St Petersburg" and is best drunk with friends.

[Gryffyn]

Well, you can already get magnums of champagne.

I suppose it will be interesting ordering a "shot" of the new vodka.

[Mr_Market]

A new competitor:

Mainers Hope to Turn Potatoes Into Vodka - http://story.news.yahoo.com/news?tmpl=story&cid=509&ncid=509&e=20&u=/ap/20040920/ap_on_bi_ge/farm_scene_1

[blackcap]

This is a bit of a ramp, but was in Palmerston North over the weekend and purchased a bottle of 42 below from the Liqor King. THey previously (yr ago) didnt stock the stuff. I asked the girl behind the counter how it was selling and she said good. But more importantly she continued to say that bars around the area were all using the stuff.

Anyway thought I would give you a brief update. If indeed bars are taking the stuff on, it will all bode well for FTB.

Disc- hold a number of B warrants

[marinesalvor]

I spoke to my local liquor chap blackcap - he didnt stock it last year, but sells very well this year - feijoa sales way out ahead - negligible sales for the basic flavour

[blackcap]

quote:Originally posted by marinesalvor

I spoke to my local liquor chap blackcap - he didnt stock it last year, but sells very well this year - feijoa sales way out ahead - negligible sales for the basic flavour


They sell FTB in Estonia? Just kidding you mate.

Thats the brand I bought too. Feijoa. Had a tipple for the first time last night and am sold. Beautiful!!!! Its easier to drink than other vodkas and the taste is superb. They certainly have a high quality product.

[marinesalvor]

hehe Blackcap - no not in Estonia yet - I have checked!!
but 4 places on westbourne grove in Notting Hill - am impressed its getting out there

[spector]

i was looking at the 42 below website to try and find those ads that were going around awhile back... but couldn't find them on there... their website is all over the show... but if you click on the advertising part of the site they do have this movie file of a talk show in america where they are talking about 42. I thought it was pretty impressive. It took awhile to download though so I wouldn't recommend it if you're like me on a 56k line.

[marinesalvor]

sadly the original hobbit/russel crowe ad has gone - that was a classic

[spector]

*sigh*

[marinesalvor]

the fosters one is a classic though - right down to the hoodies

[Gryffyn]

Smirnoff targets youth market

14.10.2004 5.00 am

Smirnoff has launched a $1 million advertising campaign for its ready-to-drink and vodka brands.

Four television commercials, produced by JWT New York, will be introduced over the next year targeting 18 to 30-year-olds.

The advertisements show the product in industrial settings being smashed or crushed from an ice block to show Smirnoff is best served ice-cold.

The advertisements were said to have won rave reviews in the US.

[Gryffyn]

Vodka market is where it's at!

[whiteheron]

How far can you go on hype and bull****????????

Obviously a lot further than i thought that you could

[Gryffyn]

quote:Originally posted by whiteheron

How far can you go on hype and bull****????????

Obviously a lot further than i thought that you could




Well what's intrinsically special about Coca-Cola other than the brand?

[marinesalvor]

Whiteheron - how much do you understand branding???

[$imon]

Dissapointed to come through Melbourne airport arrivals on Sunday looking for a bottle from the duty free shop and not a 42Below in site. They even had a big display of vodka including Grey Goose, Belvedere, finlandia, absolut, etc etc.

Anyone from FTB care to comment on when the aus duty free supplies will come through from the Fosters tie up?

Cheers
$imon

[marinesalvor]

so true Simon - I have been agitating on this site - havent seen at any of the 8 asia pac area airports I have been in... not good!

[peat]

is there some merger with Fosters ???

[Golfer]

Share price looking solid over recent days. Anyone know of some pending news??

[marinesalvor]

my goodness yes Golfer - looks nice today esp warrants

[spector]

hmmm... first time i've noticed that no FTBWB options are on offer. I'm assuming that either the brokers have none left or they know something is in the pipeline. What do ya reakon?

[spector]

i take that back... some have just appeared at 30c. Good luck 30 cents guy!

[Golfer]

Will be intersting to see if any positive news comes to the market over the next few days. [8D]

[Placebo]

I can't post charts in here, but if I could, I would post a chart for the past year that would show this stock is in fact in a medium-term (10 months) uptrend. Movement over the last couple of days merely continues the trend.

Buy while it's cheap!

Disc: Hold FTB.

[blackcap]

Like I was saying earlier, they have an exceptional product. Bought some of the Feijoa flavoured stuff the other day and it is beautiful and top notch.
Talking to the lady in Liquor King, Palmerston North, and she said they were selling like hotcakes and bars around town were using the stuff for their drinks.

This company really could go places.

Regards

Disc - holder of some heads (now) and options

[Phaedrus]

Placebo - A chart just for you. It includes todays price as of right now, though of course the Close might be different. As you say, FTB is in a clear medium-term uptrend. There is a confirmed trendline in place. Price action breaking below this would give a good exit signal. I have included a suitable Moving Average and Trailing Stop for those that do not like trendline generated Sell signals. Prices breaking below either of these would make this stock an immediate sell.

http://home.ripway.com/2003-11/39768/FTB001.gif

[Placebo]

Awwwww, ain't she purdy! Thanks Phaedrus, you're da man

Disclaimer: This in no way signals me as a technical analyst!

[spector]

A question for you Phaedrus.... even though this trendline is based over a very short period of time, can your software make a ballpark prediction of the FTB head price when the A and B options mature? Maybe using an older start up company that had a similiar growth pattern as a model?

[Golfer]

So is it just the herd mentality or is there some positive news on its way[?][:p]

[KJ]

HY announcement only 2-3 weeks away.

[blackcap]

For those that are sceptical, buy a bottle of the stuff and try it our for yourselves. I did just that a few weeks ago and was pleasantly suprised. So much so, that when I next buy a vodka it will certainly be a 42 below one. I dont mind paying a premium price for a good product.

And for those that have trouble with spirits, it goes down the throat like an RTD.

[trendy]

Got to be able to buy it first. Haven't seen it in any stores here let alone advertised...

[blackcap]

quote:Originally posted by trendy

Got to be able to buy it first. Haven't seen it in any stores here let alone advertised...


Liquor King in Palmerston North stocked it.

Where abouts are your trendy?

I dare say most major cities in NZ should sell it.

[floyd]

every bar in blenheim stocks it, is quite popular as well according to some of the owners.....

[trendy]

Boston - US of A...

[spector]

quote:Originally posted by trendy

Boston - US of A...


go the Red Sox!

[blackcap]

quote:Originally posted by trendy

Boston - US of A...


Wow you must be on cloudnine. (pardon the pun)

Agree with you on the advertising. They dont do it in NZ either. Well not at a normal level. ie TV, or newsprint.

Good luck finding the stuff over there, but I do know that its becoming a very popular drink in NZ.

[Phaedrus]

Spector, You ask "can your software make a ballpark prediction of the FTB head price when the A and B options mature?"

If you had to guess what a particular security's price would be tomorrow, a logical guess would be "fairly close to today's price." If prices are trending up, a better guess might be "fairly close to today's price with an upward bias." Linear regression analysis is the statistical confirmation of these logical assumptions. A Linear Regression trendline is simply a trendline drawn between two points using the least squares fit method. The trendline is displayed in the exact middle of the prices. If you think of this trendline as the "equilibrium" price, any move above or below the trendline indicates overzealous buyers or sellers.
So, using a trendline based on Linear reagression, it is possible to make predictions as to what the FTB shareprice might be at some time in the future. As you would expect, the further into the future you project, the lower the accuracy. Conversely, as the option maturity date draws nearer, predictions increase in accuracy, because the LR trendline is dynamic, reacting to include the latest data available.

[trendy]

Yip late night and a great game. Just hope the curse has been broken for the final.

[spector]

quote:Originally posted by Phaedrus

Spector, You ask "can your software make a ballpark prediction of the FTB head price when the A and B options mature?"

If you had to guess what a particular security's price would be tomorrow, a logical guess would be "fairly close to today's price." If prices are trending up, a better guess might be "fairly close to today's price with an upward bias." Linear regression analysis is the statistical confirmation of these logical assumptions. A Linear Regression trendline is simply a trendline drawn between two points using the least squares fit method. The trendline is displayed in the exact middle of the prices. If you think of this trendline as the "equilibrium" price, any move above or below the trendline indicates overzealous buyers or sellers.
So, using a trendline based on Linear reagression, it is possible to make predictions as to what the FTB shareprice might be at some time in the future. As you would expect, the further into the future you project, the lower the accuracy. Conversely, as the option maturity date draws nearer, predictions increase in accuracy, because the LR trendline is dynamic, reacting to include the latest data available.






thanks for that. i can't speak for others but i personally am always thankful for the input from the level headed sages of the finance community. you're like our dads.

[Signal]

quote:

Posted by BlackCap
Agree with you on the advertising. They dont do it in NZ either. Well not at a normal level. ie TV, or newsprint.

There aren't many better forms of advertising than the lead story on TV1 News at 6pm.

[spector]

quote:Originally posted by Signal


quote:

Posted by BlackCap
Agree with you on the advertising. They dont do it in NZ either. Well not at a normal level. ie TV, or newsprint.

There aren't many better forms of advertising than the lead story on TV1 News at 6pm.


ha ha! I liked how "high-profile maori" complained that the ad showed maori in "negative stereotypes" when, as far as i could tell, the whole point of the ad was to highlight the twisted stereotypes people have of new zealand in the first place. "high-profile maori" made themselves look a bit silly on the telly. Again.
Good publicity for 42 though.

Trendy Email 42 below and ask for address of nearest supplier

[Awryly]

A deep and incomprehensible announcement from the knight of the brown'd table ... who seems to think vodka should become a treaty issue. Why not, indeed? Everything else is.


quote:[Sir Howard] Morrison takes a different view: "He's actually bastardising the integrity of our people by using them in caricature."

[Awryly]

quote:Originally posted by Awryly

A deep and incomprehensible announcement from a (there are more of them)knight of the brown'd table ... who seems to think vodka should become a treaty issue. Why not, indeed? Everything else is.


quote:[Sir Howard] Morrison takes a different view: "He's actually bastardising the integrity of our people by using them in caricature."

[spector]

Just read the FTB announcement that was posted today. Wasn't this already announced a month ago or is this new news?

26/10/2004
12:01 pm

GENERAL: FTB: 42 Below and Foster's Group NZ Sign Sales & Distribution Deal

42 BELOW Ltd (FTB), the New Zealand super-premium vodka and gin maker, and
Foster's Group New Zealand today announced a sales and distribution deal that
will see Foster's Group NZ distribute 42 BELOW Vodka and SOUTH Gin throughout
New Zealand - increasing Foster's Group NZ's already impressive
multi-beverage portfolio.

The sales and distribution deal comes on the back of a similar successful
Australian and Pacific Duty Free channel agreement signed in March this year
between 42 BELOW and Foster's Brewing International and another agreement
with Carlton & United Beverages in Australia who will distribute 42 Below
product across Australia.

"42 BELOW is extremely happy to be working with Foster's Group NZ. As a
multi-beverage company distributing and marketing beer, wines, spirits, cider
and non-alcoholic products Foster's Group NZ has developed first-class
distribution channels and trade relationships. This agreement allows 42 BELOW
to tap into these and further increase our penetration within the New Zealand
market," said Geoff Ross, 42 BELOW's Chief Vodka Bloke.

Mr Ross added that it was in keeping with 42 BELOW's distribution strategy to
partner with a large distributor like Foster's Group NZ once the 42 BELOW and
SOUTH brands had been established and traction, resulting in sufficient sales
figures, had been secured.

The deal will take effect from November 1, 2004 and will combine the super
premium 42 BELOW Pure Vodka, 42 BELOW Feijoa Vodka, 42 BELOW Passionfruit
Vodka, 42 BELOW Manuka Honey Vodka and SOUTH Gin brands with Foster's
existing premium portfolio which includes brands such as Crown Lager, and the
Matua and Wolf Blass wine ranges.

"Foster's Group NZ strives to offer our customers, and the wider public, a
premium selection of products across a number of categories. The inclusion of
42 BELOW's immensely popular products further strengthens our spirits
portfolio and is consistent with Foster's Group's international strategy,
announced recently by new CEO Trevor O'Hoy, to become a global powerhouse in
the Asia-Pacific region," said Andrew Bonner, Vice President for Foster's
Group NZ.
End CA:00107022 For:FTB Type:GENERAL Time:2004-10-26:12:01:33

[Signal]

The previous announcement related to Australian distribution by Fosters (via Carlton United Breweries), the latest news is for NZ.

Seems to be some buying support from more "traditional" brokers - Goldman Sacks, Forsyth Barr, First NZ, rather than the typical domination of Direct, ASB etc.

Disc. Joined the confirmed uptrend of FTB a couple of weeks ago once I perceived that any overhang from the IPO around 50 cents had cleared. Hold head shares only.

[$imon]

Still doesn't explain why we can't find any at Melbourne arrivals. If the duty free deal was signed in March, where is the stock??? Is it the same in the rest of the airports in the Asia Pac region?

[Signal]

$imon, I can only assume that it's only a matter of time before you see it in Melborne Duty Free - either that or CUB aren't doing their job or there is some barrier to getting it on the shelves.

The FTB website www.42below.co.nz lists what must be more than 100 outlets in Melborne.

Suggest you email the company and ask re: Melborne arrivals. Perhaps they can't meet demand?

[blackcap]

Good to see good support at 60 cents.

Where is Minder when you need him to put a lid on things.

He has gone awfully quiet lately. Maybe its cause FTB are heaily in the money now?

[spector]

quote:Originally posted by Signal

The previous announcement related to Australian distribution by Fosters (via Carlton United Breweries), the latest news is for NZ.

Seems to be some buying support from more "traditional" brokers - Goldman Sacks, Forsyth Barr, First NZ, rather than the typical domination of Direct, ASB etc.

Disc. Joined the confirmed uptrend of FTB a couple of weeks ago once I perceived that any overhang from the IPO around 50 cents had cleared. Hold head shares only.



far out! I didn't read that this was a new deal for New Zealand. Man those guys are going gangbusters!

[Placebo]

I'd suggest the one risk they have is not being able to meet the demand they are creating. They outsource production, not sure to whom. Hope they have a big still (or whatever it is you make vodka in).

Hold FTB plus warrants

[Signal]

I tend to agree Placebo, it has to be a risk with any high growth company. Whoever manufactures it may well be having to increase capacity, FTB would have to give them confidence to do that given the capital investment required. Certainly the credibility of the distribution partnerships they are establishing must be helping with that.

[Futurz]

quote:Originally posted by Placebo

I'd suggest the one risk they have is not being able to meet the demand they are creating. They outsource production, not sure to whom. Hope they have a big still (or whatever it is you make vodka in).

Hold FTB plus warrants


Brewed by Pacific Dawn Distillery, which is Lion Breweires. From what i have heard they can ramp up production exponentionally if required [8D]

[spector]

I'm pretty sure that distillation capability would have been one of the first things Fosters looked at. So I don't think it's something we have to worry about.

Funny how this forum has turned from "42 BELOW is never going to work" to "I hope they can keep up with demand":)