GEO - GeoOP - Work Management Software

[False Profit]

Smartphone & software.

Two words that are definitely out of my circle of competence.

Get acquainted...AUS:MBE. You might be pleasantly surprised.

[Copper]

Whats peoples thoughts on "we're on track" type announcements? I assume being on track boosts shareholders confidence, which should push the price up as people buy + hold right?
Though for tech stocks people are starting to expect "wildly successful" announcements, so just "we're doing ok" might not give them the hype traders all love to chase...

Pretty damn dull to me but I am just a punter that this stock is full of....IMHO.

[Harvey Specter]

That makes their Annualised revenue $1.2m ($20 per month per user) vs a market cap of $75m so a P/S of 62. Seems a bit high since growth is only 18% per quarter.

Does anyone now their previous quarter growth rate - is it accelerating.

[bucko]

i couldnt find anything qtr to qtr only what was disclosed in the IPO document

Our users have grown from 1,600 in January 2013 to 4,500 in September 2013

[Harvey Specter]

i couldnt find anything qtr to qtr only what was disclosed in the IPO document

Our users have grown from 1,600 in January 2013 to 4,500 in September 2013So in 3 quarters, they averaged growth of 966 users a quarter but only increased 800 this quarter. Based on an increasing denominator, that is a big reduction in growth %. I wonder how seasonality effects growth.

[Copper]

There's some good money lost here in the past week.Fall so quick you couldn't afford to blink....

[mrjeems]

Was getting a coffee at the local cafe, and noticed that the new M2 magazine lists GEO as one of its "tech stocks to invest in 2014". Along with Apple, Microsoft, Qualcomm, Xero and Cisco. heh.

[Harvey Specter]

Was getting a coffee at the local cafe, and noticed that the new M2 magazine lists GEO as one of its "tech stocks to invest in 2014". Along with Apple, Microsoft, Qualcomm, Xero and Cisco. heh.Investment advise from a glorified clothing advertisement.

[Copper]

Investment advise from a glorified clothing advertisement.

I suppose if you buy six shares ,one will always turn out to be a dud on the law of averages.Maybe Microsoft????

[SirPrize]

15%-19% up today ... because of __________ (?)

GO.

[Radler]

There are some big gaps up to $3

[Loneranger]

Simply because it has been down so just a little bit of re-bounce.

[winner69]

Interview with Leanne on radio live today
http://www.radiolive.co.nz/Leanna-Graham-GeoOP-Chief-Executive/tabid/506/articleID/40792/Default.aspx

Warning - she hardly draws breath

[Airw0lf]

I was in Newmarket on Friday and saw people with GeoOp T-shirts that mentioned a free trial day. I think they might actually have been employees out and about for an after work drink as opposed to a promo company hired.

[Harvey Specter]

I was in Newmarket on Friday and saw people with GeoOp T-shirts that mentioned a free trial day. I think they might actually have been employees out and about for an after work drink as opposed to a promo company hired.
I see Vend employees all the time in their TShirts. Haven't seen geoOp - where is their office?

[Airw0lf]

I see Vend employees all the time in their TShirts. Haven't seen geoOp - where is their office?

Apparently it's Heather St. in Parnell, so reasonably close to Newmarket. I saw them all hanging out at a bar on Lumsden Green (corner Khyber Pass and Broadway).

[Leftfield]

[QUOTE=moosie_900;466930] disc - not holding but considering taking my own advice for once...[/QUOTE

Whoa! risky. ;)

[Copper]

[QUOTE=moosie_900;466930] disc - not holding but considering taking my own advice for once...[/QUOTE

Whoa! risky. ;)

Just like a car stuck in river shingle.Forever down but eventually we may get some grip...Or a flood...

[Harvey Specter]

Looking like a broken dam today!Apparently at the Milford funds meeting last night, Brian was complementary of XRO ($60 comment) but not so flattering of GEO. So maybe it is just a reallocation of funds from those who attended.

[Copper]

Looking like a broken dam today!

It wouldn't take much to knock the confidence in this stock .Modest seller took out most of those willing to buy.Interesting times.....

[sharp]

Bought in at $2.50 not long ago - believing this was the support... are the experts expect the SP to dip further? Did they list at $1.60?

[sharp]

Ouch. They listed at $1.00, so you paid a 150% premium to that...

Support looks to be @ $1.80, $1.70 and $1.60. Could be a double bottom play if it bounces off those lower two levels. Really need to grow even to justify this price though.

Finally got round to reading that M2 article on "tech stocks to invest in in 2014". What a bunch of clowns thinking they can offer up financial advice without basic understandings of valuations and just throwing mCap and revenue numbers around...

Looks like there is support at $1.90?

[Longhaul]

After Q3 update the company (nearly) had $150k in revenue. Compared to an mcap of $52M @1.91 that gives a Price to Sales ratio of 353. Even at half that price it's still 170ish. The company is not growing at a massive percentage to justify that, that's for sure. Yikes!!!!

$52M MCAP at $1.91 seems maybe a touch high. How many competitors exist that do what GeoOP does? Where is Balance?

[Copper]

$52M MCAP at $1.91 seems maybe a touch high. How many competitors exist that do what GeoOP does? Where is Balance?
Balance may be a little biased with his friend Mark as Chairman.Joking aside as the price they listed at was $1 I think there may be a little(big) downside as the originals look at what they have.The growth in take up is not very sex appealing in this market.

[couta1]

Buyers nowhere to be seen. $1.60 the last great support level before freefall mode. The weakling growth stocks are now being weeded out imho, and GEO is definitely one.
The whole NZX looks pretty crappy overall bar a few stocks Moosie compared to overseas markets at the moment,perhaps May has come early

[Harvey Specter]

Big run up on the NASDAQ overnight and the only tech stock I can see that benefited is TRS!

[Copper]

Balance may be a little biased with his friend Mark as Chairman.Joking aside as the price they listed at was $1 I think there may be a little(big) downside as the originals look at what they have.The growth in take up is not very sex appealing in this market.
I posted this on 21 March and I don't think anything has happened since then.Go and look at the posts around that time and we ain't gone nowhere.

[sharp]

GEO will now skyrocket tomorrow - because I've now sold out of it :mellow:

[sharp]

You win some you lose some unfortunately. I'm watching for a possible double bottom bounce off $1.60-$1.70, but I ain't holding my breath! Anyone looking to play might do good buying at psych resistance of $1.50...

I will feel better if your negative sentiments about GEO are right and it bottoms to their $1 IPO mark - Selfish I know - but arn't we all?

[Copper]

Well, anyone buying at IPO price? Excellent chance to play a bounce (if it materialises) as the divide between buy and sell is usually massive!!!
This divide is one of the problems. If support becomes non existent gravity (panic) may take over on the lower side...

[Longhaul]

Talk about a strange way to report customer numbers.... does this mean they have 8006 paying customers?

"As at March 31, GeoOp reports a number to March 31, 2014 of 8,006. This represents 51% growth from GeoOp's previous quarter ended December 31, 2013 of 5,300."

[Harvey Specter]

Must assume it is paying customers so (http://geoop.com/pricing/) 8,006 x $20 x 12 months = $1.9m revenue run rate. Market cap of ~$40m so 20x revenue

I would say that is about right for an early stage growth company. 51% growth in 3 months is on track for over 200% per year.

I am a bit over invested in high risk stocks but was looking as it got closer to $1. Its back on the rise now.

[Bilbo]

Must assume it is paying customers so (http://geoop.com/pricing/) 8,006 x $20 x 12 months = $1.9m revenue run rate. Market cap of ~$40m so 20x revenue

I would say that is about right for an early stage growth company. 51% growth in 3 months is on track for over 200% per year.

I am a bit over invested in high risk stocks but was looking as it got closer to $1. Its back on the rise now.

51% growth in a quarter was good enough for me to buy back the IPO shares I sold at $2.50. Happy to sit on this puppy long term now and watch how the growth goes over the next year. Will be interesting to see a country breakdown of customer numbers.

[Schrodinger]

its their version of ARR-Annual Recurring Revenue which is the industry standard with Saas metrics.

This is the metric to watch as this translates into financial reporting years i.e gives the future size of the company in advance. The other key metric is to know what their retention rates are. With a 50% quarterly growth rate I assume it will be very high.

I would expect this to get to 20k subs ($5M @ 20x12x20k) in just NZ & Aus without the rest of the world. The game gets harder outside these countries. 50k is 20x12x50K=$12M

Big company in the making.

[drswag]

Anyone else unable to place a bid through ASB Sec for this?

5733

EDIT: Durr it's on the Alternative market. Nevermind

[Schrodinger]

DB or ANZ online or ASB phone

[Schrodinger]

The new customer growth is on $20+ each sub. Since this new price plan was introduced last year I estimate6-7k are on the new plan. I havent gone into exchange rate idifferences and assume they are charging $20 in any country.

[Schrodinger]

Can anyone tell me what the multiple for PEB is?

[Bilbo]

Not quite right - the only info on ARPU previous provided indicated it was $6/month as lots of customers on grandfathered plans. I'd suspect the vast majority of customer growth (90% +) would be from users on the grandfathered plans. Lets say ARPU has increased to $7 per month from September 2013 - thats $670,000 annualised revenue, or a 60x revenue multiple.

Crazy whatever way you look at it.

Why would you expect customer growth to be from users on the grandfathered plans?

[Schrodinger]

SC, two words for you: momentum trading.

Schrodinger: you don't want to know the answer to that question!

ok i will give it a go:

$350,000,000/300,000=1200?

[Harvey Specter]

Not quite rightThats for that. Grandfathering makes it a hard thing to compute


Can anyone tell me what the multiple for PEB is?PEB has medical approval which gives it a 2+ year leap on new competitors. Geo could be copied in a few weeks.

[Intel]

The new customer growth is on $20+ each sub. Since this new price plan was introduced last year I estimate6-7k are on the new plan. I havent gone into exchange rate idifferences and assume they are charging $20 in any country.


Or they are all on free trials.....

I find it odd and worrying that they would disclose operating results to be just customer numbers with no disclosed revemue. Always be wary!

[blackcap]

Yup as long as everyone investing based on momentum recognise it for what it is. Ie get off the bus when the worm turns and don't believe that the market is efficient. I feel sorry for guys like couta who really have no clue and don't put in place stop losses etc
I sort of feel sorry for Couta too.... but he has had plenty of warnings from plenty of astute hardened traders on here and he can only blame himself. He will learn the lessons the hard way (like most of us did too) and go onwards and upwards from there.
THis stock.... yeah financials will be the telling point. What they came out with today really tells me nothing.

[couta1]

I sort of feel sorry for Couta too.... but he has had plenty of warnings from plenty of astute hardened traders on here and he can only blame himself. He will learn the lessons the hard way (like most of us did too) and go onwards and upwards from there.
THis stock.... yeah financials will be the telling point. What they came out with today really tells me nothing.
Yep certainly have learnt some lessons that I won't repeat mainly through over enthusiasm,fortunately not on this stock,but as you can probably tell I'm not someone who gives up easily,just have to ride out the storm now and see what happens:cool:

[Copper]

Not a post for nearly a month .With that amount of interest no one will notice that it may fall out of bed one day.It's looking a bit vulnerable to a bored seller .IMHO.

[vorno]

Not a post for nearly a month .With that amount of interest no one will notice that it may fall out of bed one day.It's looking a bit vulnerable to a bored seller .IMHO.

Well with a single "sell/buy" making the difference of usually 5-10% I lost most of my interest, as well as the fact that it's on the NZAX

[Balance]

Sp continues to head down.

Capital raising on the way, i would think?

[Balance]

Only 200 shares traded, but I'd be more worried about the poor liquidity than the volatile price

Way sp is heading down with bugger all buying support suggests something happening in the background.

[vorno]

Way sp is heading down with bugger all buying support suggests something happening in the background.

You mean there may ACTUALLY be some statistical news from the company?! Shock horror!!

[Copper]

Way sp is heading down with bugger all buying support suggests something happening in the background.
I think when the interest leaves a stock where very few were given a chance to invest ,it just dies.Its the same old story the holders see the price rise and whoopee but when they want to sell it's only them that they are trying to sell to.IMHO.

[SimonHouse]

How badly burned are investors?

Let's just say they are Wel-don.

[Copper]

How badly burned are investors?

Let's just say they are Wel-don.
Wel-sed.......

[vorno]

Just my gut feel - I think most of the growth will be from users on basically very cheap plans - very little growth from people paying $20/month.

Not too far till March financials are released and commentary on ARPU comes out - I could be very wrong.

Ok well, main figure to look at is:
DEC 2013 they had 5300 customers, each theoretically paying $20p/m thus $106,000 p/m revenue.
MAR 2014 they had 8003 customers - thats 51% growth (as Moose mentioned)... thus $160,060 p/m revenue.

Of course very very rough numbers above, but 51% in a quarter, that's pretty good growth.
Perhaps there could be justification in buying into the company before the 11 June financial result. On the other-hand they could show a result similar to that of xero, where they're burning cash!

Thoughts/comments?

[Harvey Specter]

Last reported ARPU was around $7 /month not $20. GEO has aspirations to lift to $20 over time.

As I have previously explained, I believe there is some risk that ARPU has remained around $7 / month - it could have even declined - we just wont know until they report FY revenue and we can do the maths. I thought the low ARPU was because early users got it cheap. Do you thing they are still discounting to new users?

[whatsup]

$1.45 and down 8% + today , whatsup? is there a C R in the wind only .25 above listing price. hmmmmmmm !

[Harvey Specter]

$1.45 and down 8% + today , whatsup? is there a C R in the wind only .25 above listing price. hmmmmmmm !Just low liquidity. If you wanted to exit a $50k position, it would push it down a further 15c at the moment.

[vorno]

The ideal amount to hold on this stock is basically 5-10k worth, anything more (as Harvey mentions) affects the share price too greatly.

[Copper]

I think when the interest leaves a stock where very few were given a chance to invest ,it just dies.Its the same old story the holders see the price rise and whoopee but when they want to sell it's only them that they are trying to sell to.IMHO.

This is your problem.No one has heard of the thing......

[Balance]

Weldon's about as useful as a celebrity endorsement for a finance company in the mid 2000's.

If fact probably less as he won't suck in new customers.

The CEO looks promising so will be interesting to see how it goes.

And like a celebrity endorsement for a finance company in the mid 2000's, let's see how this GeoP fare in its next capital raising foray.

[Copper]

And like a celebrity endorsement for a finance company in the mid 2000's, let's see how this GeoP fare in its next capital raising foray.

Hi there Balance,you are straying far and wide today but I totally agree with your point....

[Cobber]

Hey mate,

Last reported ARPU was around $7 /month not $20. GEO has aspirations to lift to $20 over time.

As I have previously explained, I believe there is some risk that ARPU has remained around $7 / month - it could have even declined - we just wont know until they report FY revenue and we can do the maths.

I have a high suspicion over anyone who reports user growth rather than revenues, when they could easily have reported sales. Especially when the gap from actual ARPU ($7) to what they want you to believe ARPU is ($20) is so large.

My suspicion is they are focussing on reporting user growth to the market because actual revenue growth will be quite pathetic given the resources they are expending to get it. eg MOA focussing on sales volume growth funded by decreasing margin even though the story they originally told was that they were a craft brewer whos strong margins would eb retained.

eg. also hate SLI reporting on meaningless metrics such as search results using their product. Reminds me of the early dot coms reporting on hits.

eg. Wynyard who release stories supposedly price sensitive, which if you do your research you realise are totally insignificant and/or just usual course of business.

Its revenue growth and potential margins that count for these little companies. Some are ok, but I hold to my line that not a single one of these crappy SAAS listings should be valued over 5x revenue (I make an exception for xero which I'd place at 10x - 15x revenues - well below current valuation and peb which has an interesting story and no revenues but again is horribly overvalued).

Was an early investor in Xero, all these other listings are horse **** or overvalued for what they are.

Vend is the only potential listing I see in the realm of being a good investment story.

Serko - what a piece of ****, the company has struggled for so long - now they get some smart cookies on the board who tell them, lose money to get revenue growth and there are suckers out there who will back you as they think every listing is a xero at the moment.

Great post!

[youngatheart]

Hey mate,

Last reported ARPU was around $7 /month not $20. GEO has aspirations to lift to $20 over time.

As I have previously explained, I believe there is some risk that ARPU has remained around $7 / month - it could have even declined - we just wont know until they report FY revenue and we can do the maths.

I have a high suspicion over anyone who reports user growth rather than revenues, when they could easily have reported sales. Especially when the gap from actual ARPU ($7) to what they want you to believe ARPU is ($20) is so large.

My suspicion is they are focussing on reporting user growth to the market because actual revenue growth will be quite pathetic given the resources they are expending to get it. eg MOA focussing on sales volume growth funded by decreasing margin even though the story they originally told was that they were a craft brewer whos strong margins would eb retained.

eg. also hate SLI reporting on meaningless metrics such as search results using their product. Reminds me of the early dot coms reporting on hits.

eg. Wynyard who release stories supposedly price sensitive, which if you do your research you realise are totally insignificant and/or just usual course of business.

Its revenue growth and potential margins that count for these little companies. Some are ok, but I hold to my line that not a single one of these crappy SAAS listings should be valued over 5x revenue (I make an exception for xero which I'd place at 10x - 15x revenues - well below current valuation and peb which has an interesting story and no revenues but again is horribly overvalued).

Was an early investor in Xero, all these other listings are horse **** or overvalued for what they are.

Vend is the only potential listing I see in the realm of being a good investment story.

Serko - what a piece of ****, the company has struggled for so long - now they get some smart cookies on the board who tell them, lose money to get revenue growth and there are suckers out there who will back you as they think every listing is a xero at the moment.

What's your thoughts on DIL? Surely with it's huge cash reserves that would be an exception to the 'crappy SAAS' model?

[Copper]

Saw this mornings report..Am no accountant but think revenue only enuf to pay the Directors fees..and morning tea...

[Balance]

Good lord Smokin Cubans, you were quite right about the grandfathered schemes!

$610k ann rev (year start) / 8006 customers / 12months = $6.34 per month per customer.

It gets worse when you put in FY13 figure of $488k ($5.07 per month per customer!)

$4.6M loss suggests cashflow for another year and a half before more is needed to fund growth.

Another company making 4 times less revenue per annum than my old workplace (boozeshop).

Pain is about to come...

What pain?

They have Mark Waldon, the wunderkid who turned NZX into one huge profit generating machine, as Chairman.

He has only started with GeoOP.












But again, maybe not - NZX is a monoploy and he sure plucked the feathers off that golden goose to feather his own nest.


:D

[vorno]

What pain?

They have Mark Waldon, the wunderkid who turned NZX into one huge profit generating machine, as Chairman.

He has only started with GeoOP.

...Lets see how long he stays on-board.

[Balance]

Bal, where can I find me a golden goose? I swear I won't tell Weldon (or Handley, or Knight) where the location is! :D

You have to get alongside the powerbrokers first, Moosie - the ole' you scratch my back, I scratch yours harder and you scratch my .... :D

[Harvey Specter]

$610k ann rev (year start) / 8006 customers / 12months = $6.34 per month per customer.6.34 compared to the list price of $19.95:
http://geoop.com/pricing/

No wonder they want to change their pricing scheme and get rid of the grandfathered customers.

I also makes you wonder if they have been offering discounts to all their new customers as the growth in customers should all be reflected at $20pm, which clearly it isn't!

[sommelier]

The true price per customer is the average number of customers of the last 12 months, which is 4631 if you chart and average the rate of increase over the 4 reported customer numbers. This comes out at $10.97mrpu, including grandfathered customers. This is a significant increase on the previous years $7mrpu.

[sommelier]

Reported dates in bold.

Mar-13

2300



Apr-13

2666.66



May-13

3033.32



Jun-13

3399.98



Jul-13

3766.64



Aug-13

4133.3



Sep-13

4500



Oct-13

4766.66



Nov-13

5033.32



Dec-13

5300



Jan-14

6202



Feb-14

7104



Mar-14

8006







Average

4631.683

[Harvey Specter]

The true price per customer is the average number of customers of the last 12 months, which is 4631 if you chart and average the rate of increase over the 4 reported customer numbers. This comes out at $10.97mrpu, including grandfathered customers. This is a significant increase on the previous years $7mrpu.I think the way MOosie did it above is right.

He took the current annualised income (which I am sure they calculated by multiplying current customers by the rate each customer is being charged) and divided that by the current number of customers (then month-ified it). This would be more accurate that taking the annual income and then trying to divide it by some average number of customers.

[sommelier]

Ahh right, sweet. That's what ARR means then. My mistake!

[Harvey Specter]

Ahh right, sweet. That's what ARR means then. My mistake!SaaS companies have a whole different set of acronyms and metrics which need to be understood. There are some good posts if you goolge how to value a saas company. This is a good one from one of the top/biggests tech VC's: http://a16z.com/2014/05/13/understanding-saas-valuation-primer/

[Cobber]

Bal, where can I find me a golden goose? I swear I won't tell Weldon (or Handley, or Knight) where the location is! :D

The golden Gooses are everywhere - Serco and Gentrack next. Another new one announced today, ikeGPS.

It's getting ridiculous.

[Bilbo]

I love the "Performance Highlights" table in the results at http://geoop.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/06/195152.pdf where they have a column for the % Change over the year. They show the % Change for revenue, paying customers and ARR, but leave it blank for the net loss. Do they think if they leave it out we wont calculate it for ourselves? Just in case you can't be bothered to do the calc, there was a 1,370% increase in the net loss :(

[vorno]

...there was a 1,370% increase in the net loss

Ha... can't help but highlight that!

[winner69]

Ha... can't help but highlight that!

If the PE stays the same that should lead to a 1300% plus increase in the shareprice

[Tomtom]

$4.6M loss suggests cashflow for another year and a half before more is needed to fund growth. Up from $0.3m FY13? A laymans view but they could easy run through that much faster.

There are all sorts of metrics and measurements you could apply but in my uneducated view last year they spent $3.51 to make a dollar in revenue, this year they spent $10.40 to make a dollar revenue. These services really do appear to be fantastic value for their clients. Like others here I’m surprised they are discounting so heavily against the headline retail product price. You have to ask how price sensitive the market is and where the sales growth would be without this incentive.

My most abiding impression is they went to market very early for one reason or another.

Forgive me if my etiquette if my tone isn’t quite in keeping with the forum, I’m usually more the lurking type.

[sommelier]

Shares trading at a 40% premium to IPO price - what makes you think they went to market too early? If the shares were $1.10 they'd represent a good return. Retail investors are the only ones who went to market too early. The cornerstones are surely happy holders playing a risky, long-term, high growth investment on a company that they valued at around $27m ($1.00) at this stage. How long would you have waited to take it to market? They only played on the positive tech sentiment at the time.

[Copper]

Entering painful territory now as the only holders in the money are the IPO boys. See how many people panic...

Six months on and your prophesy has come true. Took a while.....Just posting this to at least get a movement on this thread. Cheers....

[dingoNZ]

Across the board, tech stocks are getting crushed. Someone on the forums suggested the high NZD today and foreign traders exiting the positions possibly?

[Tomtom]

My most abiding impression is they went to market very early for one reason or another.Shares trading at a 40% premium to IPO price - what makes you think they went to market too early? If the shares were $1.10 they'd represent a good return. Retail investors are the only ones who went to market too early. The cornerstones are surely happy holders playing a risky, long-term, high growth investment on a company that they valued at around $27m ($1.00) at this stage. How long would you have waited to take it to market? They only played on the positive tech sentiment at the time. My view is that it is never be too early but there are differing levels of risk to be priced at different stages of a business.

I’m very hopefully they can get enough consumers to buy their product/service thing that they reach that sort of self-sustaining critical mass. However hope is too lower level of confidence for me to invest. This is no criticism of the business itself at all, you can be sure they are trying very hard to close in on that critical point where they get that exponential growth before they burn through the cash. As much as everything can be in place it appears to be so, if the product/service thing they are selling is intrinsically appealing enough to potential clients I’m sure everything else (staffing, costs etc.) will be managed at a level consistent with other similar businesses.

I’ll refrain from imply anything from the current share price given the frequency and volume of trades are so low.

[Copper]

My view is that it is never be too early but there are differing levels of risk to be priced at different stages of a business.

I’m very hopefully they can get enough consumers to buy their product/service thing that they reach that sort of self-sustaining critical mass. However hope is too lower level of confidence for me to invest. This is no criticism of the business itself at all, you can be sure they are trying very hard to close in on that critical point where they get that exponential growth before they burn through the cash. As much as everything can be in place it appears to be so, if the product/service thing they are selling is intrinsically appealing enough to potential clients I’m sure everything else (staffing, costs etc.) will be managed at a level consistent with other similar businesses.

I’ll refrain from imply anything from the current share price given the frequency and volume of trades are so low.
Good post IMHO...I think at 106. the problem will be to keep the price of the share at a level which does not let the IPO mob panic.This market is very fragile as we saw with Xero.Recently it has looked to me that when it was weak a buyer mysteriously appeared and pushed them up a little.That may or may not be the case but next week or so will be very telling...cheers

[Harvey Specter]

I must say, if it gets below $1 ($25m market cap), it will be on my radar and I will start looking at it for a good time to enter (after a bit more DD).

They appear to be a good product but the issue is the amount of competition they have, even among other Xero add-ins.

[Balance]

I must say, if it gets below $1 ($25m market cap), it will be on my radar and I will start looking at it for a good time to enter (after a bit more DD).

They appear to be a good product but the issue is the amount of competition they have, even among other Xero add-ins.

Company will need to raise more funds soon - cash is burning away.

Plenty of opportunity to pick up cheap shares in the future.

[Harvey Specter]

Company will need to raise more funds soon - cash is burning away.

Plenty of opportunity to pick up cheap shares in the future.I didn't say I would enter, just look for a good time to enter. Capital raising might be the time if it drives the price lower.

[Harvey Specter]

Leannes running this like a xero spin-off when it needs to be kept lean and mean.

It has no revenue yet she dished out $100k of shares to everyone who joined up day one it seems. Sent much of the team to the America's Cup to drink wine for a couple of weeks.Yes - their cost structure is a concern as is the fact hardly any customers appear to be paying the full price. But they should grow into their costs, especially if they start charging full rates to all customers.


Such a crowded space, a difficult customer to target (blue collar owners who aren't exactly au fait with getting the latest gadgets or paying for smart phones for their crew) and low returns for targeting them.Crowded space yes but I think blue collar are increasing taking to this type of technology. Much better to use your smart phone as you go (or better get your staff to) than waste your weekend doing the paperwork when you could be fishing. The potential here is huge despite the crowded market.


Still hanging out for Vend to come to market - there is an investment story.Vend sounds interesting but already valued at over $100m so will probably be valued at $500m by the time it makes it to market.

Timely is another interesting one, having just secured funding form Wiggs Punakaiki fund.

[barleeni]

If you overlay the shareprice chart from February to now, SLI, PEB, GEO, and XRO (but more volatile) all have tracked steadily down, loosing almost 50% of their values. There could well be others, but those are the only ones I really look at in the sector.

Does the fact that they all show similarities prove that its sector sentiment that's driving the SP down, and that in actual fact the companies themselves aren't really doing anything wrong?

And if Wynyards hasn't fallen as far as these other companies, does that indicate that they are doing a better job than these others?

Lastly..................... is there a bottom in sight anyone care to make predictions when would be a good in / top up time for some of these stocks?

(p.s. I have posted the same in the SLI thread, holding PEB and SLI from those mentioned)

[Harvey Specter]

If you thought we were in a bubble months ago you ain't seen nothing yet. If anything, this just resembles the pullback 1995-96 before the REAL run up...Just to confirm what you are saying, you are predicting they will go much higher, before it pops?

[Harvey Specter]

Behind the paywall: http://www.nbr.co.nz/article/geoops-falling-share-price-sparks-concerns-md-p-158733

Summary :

From GEO (very XRO'esque): We dont care about the shareprice. We have all the money we need and are executing to plan. Points to global decline in SaaS companies.
From Lance: Points out their average revenue is $6 compared to the $20 listed on the website.
Refers to print edition for comments from Ben Kepes and more from Lance Wiggs.

Anyone old school and get the print edition and can summarize the print only article.

[Silverlight]

NTA is 29 cents. There's my target :)

Down 75% from its highs, the "moosie contrarian indicator™" says its going down another 75%, I think it might be time to take a small speculative position, time to buy! :)

[Intel]

Down 75% from its highs, the "moosie contrarian indicator™" says its going down another 75%, I think it might be time to take a small speculative position, time to buy! :)

whats the difference between a stock that falls 80% and 90%. Not a lot at first but the 80% stock has to decline a further 50% to get to 90%. Something a wise man once told me.

[Harvey Specter]

Down 75% from its highs, the "moosie contrarian indicator™" says its going down another 75%, I think it might be time to take a small speculative position, time to buy! :)Very speculative. The issue is if they cant life their revenue per customer, then the model doesn't work, and the company is doomed, irrespective of growth.

When you see that number increasing, and growth not faltering, that is the time to buy.

[Bobcat.]

Well I've just now picked up my first parcel at 80c. This stock does tend to have upward spurts after a while of declining a bit. My target is to trade this up to $1 for a 25% gain. Any positive announcement should lift it to that price without much trouble.

Anyway, that's my theory and I'm sticking to it.

[nextbigthing]

Well I've just now picked up my first parcel at 80c. This stock does tend to have upward spurts after a while of declining a bit. My target is to trade this up to $1 for a 25% gain. Any positive announcement should lift it to that price without much trouble.

Anyway, that's my theory and I'm sticking to it.

Crikey Bobcat, it's in a fairly decent downtrend, what makes you think that it will break this and that the next piece if news will be positive?

Good luck!

[couta1]

Crikey Bobcat, it's in a fairly decent downtrend, what makes you think that it will break this and that the next piece if news will be positive?

Good luck!
There was only 2 parcels that were traded at 80c one 4k lot off market and a 500 lot on market which ever was BC's he's not risking that much.

[Bobcat.]

There was only 2 parcels that were traded at 80c one 4k lot off market and a 500 lot on market which ever was BC's he's not risking that much.

Like I say, it's my first small parcel of GEO shares, of which 4500 of my bid of 5000 got hit. I stick out just a few fingers when catching knives - not my whole hand.

ANZ Securities must've had a seller for 4000 that they crossed off market.

If it drops further before bouncing, I plan to get a 2nd parcel in the 70's somewhere to increase my holding.

If it bounces from here then all good - I'll make a small profit and then move on.

I've been tracking this since it broke $1, sliding down an on-market bid to keep it at 10% under market price, anticipating a final dump before a bounce..which may have happened this morning. Buying interest is now building at 81/82c - let's see if she holds.

This strategy doesn't always work of course - I did the same last week with TIL, with a bid at 10% under market price, which got hit at 51c. It's now trading at 48c and I'm still waiting for it to bounce. I win on some and lose/wait on some.

[Tomtom]

This strategy doesn't always work of course... One severe limitation of the text based forum format is that it doesn’t let you gauge the level of other posters surprise or lack thereof.

[nextbigthing]

To be fair;

Last sale 0.84

Therefore in Bobcats case just for today,

0.04 x 4500 = $180

$180 - $60 brokerage to buy and sell = $120. One third off for tax, cancelled out by claiming against power and computer depreciation.

So by the end of the day already technically $120 up.

Better than a kick in the pants while trying to shoe a Moose...

[Bobcat.]

Good volume today - 55k which is the highest we've had for 10 days. Always a good sign since it often accompanies a momentum pivot & reversal.

[Bobcat.]

What's your sell signal BC? Price level at/near $1 or 50 RSI?

Last two tops for GEO have been $3 and $2. My modest target is $1...which will do me fine (20% profit, hopefully in less than a week).

[Bobcat.]

Anybody else want to risk a few fingers from GEO's falling knives? There's now more on offer at 80c.

[couta1]

Anybody else want to risk a few fingers from GEO's falling knives? There's now more on offer at 80c.
No thanks BC I've only got an index finger left and I need that to type on my tablet:cool:

[Harvey Specter]

To be fair;

Last sale 0.84

Therefore in Bobcats case just for today,

0.04 x 4500 = $180

$180 - $60 brokerage to buy and sell = $120. One third off for tax, cancelled out by claiming against power and computer depreciation.

So by the end of the day already technically $120 up.

Better than a kick in the pants while trying to shoe a Moose...Well - it has dropped below 80c so that small unrealised gain is now a loss.

Watching this carefully. Should I take a gamble on this or Serko*.

* better than betting on Brazil to win the world cup.

[Bobcat.]

GEO's sp when it turns tends to lift fast, a lot more than I would say Serko ever will...such is the nature of its business. It's a better trading stock IMO...but then take that advice with a pinch of salt - I'm now a bit biased because I'm holding.

BC

[Harvey Specter]

GEO's sp when it turns tends to lift fast, a lot more than I would say Serko ever will...such is the nature of its business. It's a better trading stock IMO...but then take that advice with a pinch of salt - I'm now a bit biased because I'm holding.But people have been burned by GEO wheras Serko could still have a WYN type moment and level up.

MIght have to do some more weekend reading to determine a fair entry price for both (for long term hold)

[Cobber]

Well - it has dropped below 80c so that small unrealised gain is now a loss.

Watching this carefully. Should I take a gamble on this or Serko*.

* better than betting on Brazil to win the world cup.

I can't see this bouncing to a $1 anytime soon.

Based on revenue growth to date... I wouldn't value this company above $5 million.

They have a looooong way to fall yet.

[Schrodinger]

GEO: $600K sales MCap $15M
PEB: $800K sales MCap $250M

lol

[Tomtom]

Unfortunately they have a champagne wielding CEO and board and the business is anything but lean. It's only shareholders money though.

Disc: You'll rarely find anyone who is as savagely skeptical about executive remuneration as I am or as often takes the oppertunity to express that view.

[Schrodinger]

According to those rough calcs PEB is 17 times better than GEO.

[Cobber]

To be fair, while early stage tech companies are relatively easily understood and the growth profiles, cost structures and revenue multiples comparable across the board, its not always so easy with biotech companies.

Amarin for instance was valued by the market at well over US$1 billion before it had made a single $ of sales (now worth $250m though).

Other drugs often get purchased at various stages of the clinical trial spectrum for US$40m to US$250m before they have made a single $ of sales.

You usually have to build a detailed DCF and/or have access to biotech valuation databases to really understand the value.

Hence I have stayed away from PEB as it is just too much work.

My view on a macro basis though is that the value people are applying to PEB appears to be valuing it as though it is developing a drug rather than a test...

Gut feel - haven't done the analysis...

http://techcrunch.com/2014/07/10/tech-company-with-39-in-assets-now-worth-more-than-6b/

I think your second to last line has hit the nail on the head. What they are offering is simply a test which they now need to convince doctors / health boards / insurance companies to pay for. This will take years.

[Copper]

I can't see this bouncing to a $1 anytime soon.

Based on revenue growth to date... I wouldn't value this company above $5 million.

They have a looooong way to fall yet.
My view on charting is that the share price is trying to beat the ten day moving average down to 50 cents.My page doesn't go lower than that.As I mentioned before,with these stocks that only a few participated in the IPO,there are no interested buyers other than the original subscribers.They seem to be net sellers now...

[Bobcat.]

http://techcrunch.com/2014/07/10/tech-company-with-39-in-assets-now-worth-more-than-6b/

I think your second to last line has hit the nail on the head. What they are offering is simply a test which they now need to convince doctors / health boards / insurance companies to pay for. This will take years.

Are you sure you didn't mean to post this on the PEB thread, Cobber? Or has ST got its wires crossed?

[Harvey Specter]

My view on charting is that the share price is trying to beat the ten day moving average down to 50 cents.My page doesn't go lower than that.As I mentioned before,with these stocks that only a few participated in the IPO,there are no interested buyers other than the original subscribers.They seem to be net sellers now...There was no IPO, just a pre-listing capital raise and a compliance listing so they didn't do the rounds of the brokers like you would with an IPO. It also means the shares were only sold to sophisticated shareholders though at the time, they probably would have jumped onto any SaaS bandwagon.

I think this company is under-researched but having said that, a quick look at revenue per customer is all you need to do to know all isn't well.

[Copper]

There was no IPO, just a pre-listing capital raise and a compliance listing so they didn't do the rounds of the brokers like you would with an IPO. It also means the shares were only sold to sophisticated shareholders though at the time, they probably would have jumped onto any SaaS bandwagon.

I think this company is under-researched but having said that, a quick look at revenue per customer is all you need to do to know all isn't well.
Sorry HS...nmy mistake,should have realised. That said,you are right with the sophisticated investors,they would be in to make a buck and on to the next one."Even less people interested in the Company to top up later ...cheers....

[Cobber]

Are you sure you didn't mean to post this on the PEB thread, Cobber? Or has ST got its wires crossed?

Yeah I was away with the fairies thinking about PEB. But it is friday....

[Tomtom]

To be fair;

Last sale 0.84 Closed at 72c but it is still at such small volume it isn't possible to imply anything meaningful.

Nor do I think you can fairly value this on metrics, this company is still a pilot project. If the product/service thing they are selling is intrinsically appealing enough to potential clients I’m sure the growth will come. It's that last bit that has given me most pause for thought. Does this thing have enough obvious intrinsic value that they could part a 50ish year old working class guy from a monthly fee for a smartphone app? Is this something a lot of people are likely to want to go out and purchase at the advertised price point?

The executives have plenty of prestige and the obligatory accompanying corporate cheerleading. However strategy options will be very constrained if they run out of money.

[Harvey Specter]

I think it is appealing but it does have lots of compitition. It is meant to be a time/money saver so I wonder if they will ever get the price they want/need.

[Bobcat.]

If there was no reason to sell, there is now. Yellen...made mention of biotech and social media (stocks’ valuations) getting stretched. And there was a quick response by those stocks. It’s very unusual for her to get to that level of specifics,” she said.

But Moosie - GEO is neither biotech nor social media. Price support in the low 70's is holding.

[are you sure you didn't mean to post on the PEB thread?]

[Intel]

When do the majority of IPO shares come off Escrow? (assuming there are some)?

[Schrodinger]

2015 Oct?...

[Harvey Specter]

When do the majority of IPO shares come off Escrow? (assuming there are some)?My guess would be after the 2015 accounts are published.

[vorno]

My guess would be after the 2015 accounts are published.

In the meantime there'll be a fair amount of lip biting!

[dingoNZ]

But Moosie - GEO is neither biotech nor social media. Price support in the low 70's is holding.

[are you sure you didn't mean to post on the PEB thread?]


You're right, its was just terribly overvalued. Also the sales targets don't help too much either. Glad I avoided this IPO tbh, gl to those still holding, hope it works out for y'all.

[Bobcat.]

Up 21% in two days, from 70c to 85c..in a falling equity market.

When this stock pivots it sure does rocket. Check its graph.

[Bobcat.]

Yes but every dog has its day. GEO normally rises like this for at least a week.

http://www.anzsecurities.co.nz/directtrade/dynamic/superchart.aspx?sc=asl&eg=au

In hindsight, I should've done what I posted I'd do, and averaged down in the low 70's. Missed it. All I have now is what I bought at 80c. That will have to do.

Riding a wave in a downturn is always a bit cagey but now that this pup has turned, I'm confident it will bounce up for a few more days yet. Watching to see how tired it gets in its approach to $1 (which is still my target). Surf's up on this one as well as TTK. XRO and WYN could be next.

Watching, learning, and still trying to get my timing right. It's a bit like marriage I suppose -- requiring a heart for continuous improvement (ITILv3), trying to remain sufficiently humble not to think I have it all worked out (which would be presumptuous)...first Pride then the crash.

Meanwhile, I'm enjoying the small pleasures of picking pivots and trading momentum...with the odd stop loss thrown in for good measure.

Onward and upward. $1 here we come (next week?)

BC

[Tomtom]

$8k and 5 trades, up 13%+.

[Copper]

$8k and 5 trades, up 13%+.

Surely someone like Moosie or Balance may have jokingly said at some stage they would buy at these levels .Looks a bit like the dead cat didn't bounce very far.....

[robbo24]

I actually said to someone they should buy PAY @ $3.18 today to send the markets into a frenzy lol.

Swear it wasn't moi! :)

I can confirm that moosie did indeed say that to someone.

[Copper]

Gosh Robbo, you don't need to confirm it, everyone takes the Mooseinator at face value as a truthful guy :) ;) :p

I will say that your post on Xero that it would see twenty and then rise to twenty three and then lose steam is looking quite likely .So your guesses and the truth may be on a colision course .You may be in for a golden period....let's hope. Cheers.

[vorno]

dont follow GEO, but was wondering why the share price has been hammered considering they achieved the customer growth numbers that was stated in the prospectus.

Well, it probably comes down to Waffles! https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=JGstHASo1t4

[Balance]

Difference is that NZX is a monopoly.

Any idiot can run and milk a monopoly.

Mark Weldon's entry as director into Diligent (and the subsequent price action) gives you a fair idea of what to expect from Weldon as Chairman.

All to be expected.

[Copper]

I wonder what 8% number is in the US....Sounds a bit like a fishing boat going to the Falklands cos someone said they caught a few cod the other day.....IMHO....

[Copper]

Yep - 8% of revenue is what $30,000 or so.

You would have hoped after taking half the team on a big piss up to the America's Cup - they would have got a little more business in the US than that.

Oh well, hopefully they slash and burn and run this like a real start up now. Might be a few more overpaid execs to get rid of first. Moneys running out so probably have no choice at this stage.

Horrible horrible example of NZ SAAS company taking investors money and burning it up.
Yep again....see SLI. Another of em..

[Copper]

I wouldn't like to be a large holder wanting to get out with this market scenario..IMHO...

[BFG]

That was the most useless shareholder presentation I have seen in my life, and I've been around awhile! How could they even call that a forecast? No mention of average user revenue rates, churn etc. Unbelievable!

[jamiec26]

Have you got a link to the slides? i'm curious to see how bad it was.

[Schrodinger]

That was the most useless shareholder presentation I have seen in my life, and I've been around awhile! How could they even call that a forecast? No mention of average user revenue rates, churn etc. Unbelievable!

And yet they are 4 times the revenue of PEB yet a tenth of the market cap. Who are the silly ones here? Proven revenues or hope revenues..

[Intel]

Have you got a link to the slides? i'm curious to see how bad it was.

Woeful would be doing it justice. Abismal would be closer to true reflection and a complete an utter failure would best describe performance.

This is a sinking ship with annualised recurring revenue having moved from 610k in March to 867k in Sept. Ave sale price approx $6.50 so a failure from management to increase prices.

Total cash remaining of NZD$5m at 29 Sep 14 with net cash spend in last 6 months of 2.6m. Capital raising will be inevitable for this business in the coming 12 months.

[Harvey Specter]

Annualized revenue of $867k and 13370 users = $65 per user per year which is only $5.40 per user.

Atleast their list pricing is now realistic with actual pricing. Will make it easier to value given you can now completely ignore the $20 fiction.

On the up side, revenue growth is 610k to 867k which if they can keep up, is over 100% revenue (MRR) growth for the year. Even then, that only puts MRR at less than 25% of cash burn. They need to hit the US hard and they cant rely on Xero (pathetic growth in the US to date) to achieve that so need to get Intuit and Salesforce integration.

I wonder how their tech stacks up against the opposition (Eg. Xero is generally seen as even or better than all others) and if it is better, can they get this message across to customers?

[vorno]

I wonder how their tech stacks up against the opposition (Eg. Xero is generally seen as even or better than all others) and if it is better, can they get this message across to customers?

Well, both of them (GEO/XRO) are Tech-growth companies.... both have effectively had their leaders resign.
Coincidence? Realization? Abandonment?

[Schrodinger]

Woeful would be doing it justice. Abismal would be closer to true reflection and a complete an utter failure would best describe performance.

This is a sinking ship with annualised recurring revenue having moved from 610k in March to 867k in Sept. Ave sale price approx $6.50 so a failure from management to increase prices.

Total cash remaining of NZD$5m at 29 Sep 14 with net cash spend in last 6 months of 2.6m. Capital raising will be inevitable for this business in the coming 12 months.

If they reach $2M revenue sometime in 2015/16 this burn will reduce substantially. Will be ntouch and go but everything depends on customer acquisition and retention.

[Harvey Specter]

If they reach $2M revenue sometime in 2015/16 this burn will reduce substantially. How? If revenue reaches $2m per year, it is still well short of the $2.6m they spent in the last 6 months alone (and revenue calculcated on MRR is on a trailing basis!), and if Xero has shown us anything, costs need to ramp up if you want more growth

[Schrodinger]

Depending on the ARR they might have to tap the markets less. I think the latest growth rate was slightly disappointing and this may put pressure on another raise earlier than expected. Again this depends on how fast they can gain and retain customers. If they follow the Vend/XRO model then I expect them to run a loss for years to come as long as growth is good. This means they are regularly going to be raising cash and have planned for it.

[Cobber]

Depending on the ARR they might have to tap the markets less. I think the latest growth rate was slightly disappointing and this may put pressure on another raise earlier than expected. Again this depends on how fast they can gain and retain customers. If they follow the Vend/XRO model then I expect them to run a loss for years to come as long as growth is good. This means they are regularly going to be raising cash and have planned for it.

I think the chaps at Vend a lot smarter than these companies.

Although they are loosing money, their revenue is heading towards $10 mill a year.

I think if they wait before listing and get the loses under control without the glare of the market, by the time they do decide to list, it will be a more spectacular IPO with proven fundamentals behind them.

GEO looks like a company that popped the cork on a bottle of champagne the day they IPO'ed and have been hungover ever since.

[sommelier]

But Mark Weldon! And SaaS! And Churn! Losing money is good!

[Balance]

Said so from the beginning and it is all coming to pass - Mark Weldon is as useless as ten tits on a bull.

He was able to milk the NZX dry as it was a monopoly but his track record at managing the NZX is a joke - just have to look at the revolving door parade of executives. Anyone met an ex NZX executive with a good thing to say about him, the NZX board and his super sized ego?

No wonder GeoP is in the mess it is in now.

Consider investing when this company sees the light and sack Mark Weldon - he is the problem imo. Sp then will be about 3 cents imo. Please hang on in there, loser Weldon, until the sp reaches 3 cents.

[Harvey Specter]

Anyone follow @benkepes ?

A certain exCEO was overheard talking loudly in the koru lounge about capital raising plans, before flying business class. That's not going to help cash burn!

[Balance]

Anyone follow @benkepes ?

A certain exCEO was overheard talking loudly in the koru lounge about capital raising plans, before flying business class. That's not going to help cash burn!

The exCEO was probably stating the obvious - that GeoP is dead unless it raises more capital but the flying business class bit cannot be happy news for shareholders!

[BFG]

Wow, $1M in AR. Considering VML did this in one contract and PAY has over $1.6M in HY this makes the revenue vs cashburn rate HORRENDOUS.

Wonder how much Weldon will be stumping up in the next CR?

[Schrodinger]

Wow, $1M in AR. Considering VML did this in one contract and PAY has over $1.6M in HY this makes the revenue vs cashburn rate HORRENDOUS.

Wonder how much Weldon will be stumping up in the next CR?

Good not great. Interesting to know what fy15 will come in at. Might be near $1M depending on the next few months which means growth near 200%. Strange they didn't publish the subs.

[Stranger_Danger]

Good not great. Interesting to know what fy15 will come in at. Might be near $1M depending on the next few months which means growth near 200%. Strange they didn't publish the subs.

They might in the next announcement.

My prediction. Three bits of positive news, then a capital raising, within a month.

(No inside knowledge. Just a cynical guess)

[Balance]

Wow, $1M in AR. Considering VML did this in one contract and PAY has over $1.6M in HY this makes the revenue vs cashburn rate HORRENDOUS.

Wonder how much Weldon will be stumping up in the next CR?

Very very strange that the announcement is from Leanne Graham, CEO of GeoP? I thought she resigned in September?

Weldon is too busy now with MediaWorks to be concerned about GeoP.

Problem for him this time round is that he is the Chairman, and is totally identified with the formation and IPO of GeoP. Cannot run away and hide like he did when DIL blew up after listing,.

[BFG]

Graham reassigned herself to a more specific US role.

[Harvey Specter]

Very very strange that the announcement is from Leanne Graham, CEO of GeoP? I thought she resigned in September?.I assume she retains the title until they find a replacement.

[Balance]

Graham reassigned herself to a more specific US role.

Announcement in September is clear : "GeoOp's Chairman Mark Weldon says, "Leanne led the company through its
transition from a private company to a successful listing on the NZAX in 2013
and under her leadership GeoOp has continued to grow. Leanne has built a
strong team of executives around her and has made a significant contribution
to GeoOp in her time as Chief Executive. She moves into her new role to
accelerate development of the important US market."

So why issue a statement in her name as CEO?

BTW, nothing surprising about Leanne leaving GeoP - Weldon's track record at NZX is there for all to see.

[Balance]

I assume she retains the title until they find a replacement.

GeoP's ability to attract a suitable CEO with great credentials and ability is highly questionable imo.

Factors (all negative) to consider :

1. First job is to do a capital raise - a yucky job given how badly investors have been burnt in the IPO so far.

2. Putting up with Mark Weldon and his ego - few executives lasted at NZX.

[Kiwi]

What's happening to this Company, down to $0.37 today. Must be getting to a point of being a bargain buy. I seem to remember Diligent being at 10 cents once upon a time. Anybody thinking of taking a bundle of these?

[winner69]

What's happening to this Company, down to $0.37 today. Must be getting to a point of being a bargain buy. I seem to remember Diligent being at 10 cents once upon a time. Anybody thinking of taking a bundle of these?

Does seem a long way down from $3.50 odd

Getting back to those levels would be a ten bagger, nice

Something to aim for kiwi

[Kiwi]

Does seem a long way down from $3.50 odd

Getting back to those levels would be a ten bagger, nice

Something to aim for kiwi

Certainly could be a good start for 2015.

[BFG]

What's happening to this Company, down to $0.37 today. Must be getting to a point of being a bargain buy. I seem to remember Diligent being at 10 cents once upon a time. Anybody thinking of taking a bundle of these?

It can also go to zero. That's more likely right now than $3.50! Expect a cap raise sooner rather than later. That cash burn rate is absolutely horrendous relative to sales. Weldon being onboard and CEO diwngrading herself as well do not bode well!

[Harvey Specter]

0 more likely. I don't see them getting to the scale they need to be profitable - their price point is too low.

Contrast to XRO which will get profitable, it's just questionable whether it is worth $2B.

[BFG]

What is the purpose of this (missed it yesterday)?

https://nzx.com/companies/GEO/announcements/259406

[Harvey Specter]

What is the purpose of this (missed it yesterday)?

https://nzx.com/companies/GEO/announcements/259406it was disclosed in the accounts but they did well to hid the announcement late on Christmas Eve. There was probably a loan associated with it so they had to buy back or it would be a disincentive, not an incentive. So it is probably neutral for her, rather than a nice premium as it looks.

They structure it this way as share options are complicated in NZ.

[BFG]

Harvey, it was $1 for 500k shares, not $1 per share! Equal to a peppercorn rent back ye olde times. Bizarre as I've never seen anything like this before. Seems like a f***** up Xmas present from "lofty" Weldon to Graham for not performing. How he's going to fix it and, more importantly, who he is bringing in to replace her is the question.

[BFG]

I had a very long and vivid dream last night about owning a huge amount of GEO shares and trying to hock them off to anyone and everyone. I was wandering the streets of Wellington engaging anyone who would stop and talk. I eventually ended up down by Aotea Quay near the stadium and train tracks with a train hurtling towards me. I woke up screaming. What makes it more bizarre is that I never dream anymore...

If you see Mr Weldon today give him some sympathy and somr pieces of leftover Xmas ham. I don't think I could go through that routine every night!

[BFG]

Is that a cap raise I can smell coming with a near 100% gain on no news???

[Kiwi]

What's with the sudden interest in this company? Just when I thought of buying a few they have jumped 20cents. Maybe others have seen a bargain share to trade on? Hoping to make it to the Heritage meeting on the 31st BFG.

[BFG]

What's with the sudden interest in this company? Just when I thought of buying a few they have jumped 20cents. Maybe others have seen a bargain share to trade on? Hoping to make it to the Heritage meeting on the 31st BFG.

As I said, with GEOs amazing cashburn rate, I can see a cap raising happening very soon. Spruiking the price will equal less dilution. Give it a week or two to allow a higher 5 day VWAP to be achieved for the cap raise price.

Be good to see you at the meet Kiwi :)

[Stranger_Danger]

Yup. Rights issue a-coming.

[Bilbo]

As I said, with GEOs amazing cashburn rate, I can see a cap raising happening very soon. Spruiking the price will equal less dilution. Give it a week or two to allow a higher 5 day VWAP to be achieved for the cap raise price.

Be good to see you at the meet Kiwi :)

So for those unfortunate holders, when do you think would be the best time to exit and at what price? I am assuming you think there will be a ramp up in the sp, and then a fall once the cap raise is announced? Sell side currently looking thin (as is the buy side), with only $30K on offer below $1.50, so there is potential for a buyer to move the price rapidly, but are interests associated with the company actually allowed to influence the sp in the lead up to a capital raising?

[BFG]

So for those unfortunate holders, when do you think would be the best time to exit and at what price? I am assuming you think there will be a ramp up in the sp, and then a fall once the cap raise is announced? Sell side currently looking thin (as is the buy side), with only $30K on offer below $1.50, so there is potential for a buyer to move the price rapidly, but are interests associated with the company actually allowed to influence the sp in the lead up to a capital raising?

Anytime would be a good time to exit this dog! The ex-CEO was just basically put on the naughty step with all her performances shares being bought back for a single dollar. $1, for ALL of them!!!

Yes, I have seen this happen way too much on the ASX to be fooled by it. Cap raises are usually after a "feel good" announcement, but it appears GEO doesn't even have one of those to announce. Of course people associated with the company can't trade in shares, but that doesn't mean they can't give a nudge nudge wink to others with money and associated interests. Sometimes it is also the underwriter for the cap raise to get a better price for the company.

The VWAP average price will be based on a 5-10 day trading average, with a probable 5-15% discount to this price being set for the cap raise.

I'm not saying that's what's happening here, just saying it's a very possible hypothetical situation ;)

[BFG]

What an absolute abomination of reporting this is:

https://nzx.com/files/attachments/207007.pdf

No reports on client retention/churn, CAC, lifetime value of a customer, or whether the licenses were paid at normal prices or cut rate trial prices.

This company is in trouble even just looking at those paltry numbers. Stay WELL away.

[Zaphod]

What an absolute abomination of reporting this is:

https://nzx.com/files/attachments/207007.pdf

No reports on client retention/churn, CAC, lifetime value of a customer, or whether the licenses were paid at normal prices or cut rate trial prices.

This company is in trouble even just looking at those paltry numbers. Stay WELL away.

One dange is that these sort of announcements with lack-lustre information could create a self-fulfilling prophecy that would see customers avoiding the product just in case it falters.

[Schrodinger]

One dange is that these sort of announcements with lack-lustre information could create a self-fulfilling prophecy that would see customers avoiding the product just in case it falters.

Good numbers but in order of importance we need:

ARPC
CAC
CHURN

Most interested in average customer info as they were significantly undercharging.

[Harvey Specter]

Good numbers but in order of importance we need:

ARPC
CAC
CHURN

Most interested in average customer info as they were significantly undercharging.Agree. Customers numbers are important but in isolation, mean very little. Xero is also guilty of these 'vanity' market disclosures in the past but at least they are improving to ensure some of these more important metrics can be determined.

I assume these guys will end up on the NXT so hopefully shareholders will demand that all these metrics are included in the quarterly disclosures.

[Baa_Baa]

Agree. Customers numbers are important but in isolation, mean very little. Xero is also guilty of these 'vanity' market disclosures in the past but at least they are improving to ensure some of these more important metrics can be determined.

I assume these guys will end up on the NXT so hopefully shareholders will demand that all these metrics are included in the quarterly disclosures.

That's the key point, shareholders must demand the reporting, because the market participants disclosure and reporting requirements don't.

[BFG]

That's the key point, shareholders must demand the reporting, because the market participants disclosure and reporting requirements don't.

Exactly. If anything disclosure requirements will be LESS than what they are now for the NZAX!!!

[Schrodinger]

Exactly. If anything disclosure requirements will be LESS than what they are now for the NZAX!!!

I think they mentioned on the NXT there is a mandatory qtrly update that has the things that we mentioned above. Not sure how this is enforced or what exactly they are supposed to disclose.

Increasing customer numbers and getting a good price for the product are what I would like to know as this will influence the ARR. Overall happy with the growth but not if they are giving the product away.

[Harvey Specter]

I think they mentioned on the NXT there is a mandatory qtrly update that has the things that we mentioned above. Not sure how this is enforced or what exactly they are supposed to disclose.

Increasing customer numbers and getting a good price for the product are what I would like to know as this will influence the ARR. Overall happy with the growth but not if they are giving the product away.Correct. What are the relevant metrics needs to decided by the company but I customers numbers alone wont cut it. There will me market research undertaken (paid for by the NZX) so I would expect that company so be explicit on what metrics they see as important for them to do their job.

Time will tell whether the NXT delivers - the NZAX definitely hasn't.

[Zaphod]

Good numbers but in order of importance we need:

ARPC
CAC
CHURN

Most interested in average customer info as they were significantly undercharging.

Yes, agreed. The total number of customers is underwhelming though, but if they can keep of this growth and the APRC, CAC etc. look good with a low churn rate, that might help to offset the cash burn rate.

[winner69]

Have we all given up on GeoOP?

[vorno]

Have we all given up on GeoOP?

...Expecting a rating of "Junk" within the next year or 2.

[robbo24]

Have we all given up on GeoOP?

What on earth are you talking about? This company is going to be the next XRO, people said so on the forums :D

GEO kind of reminds me of VML - what do they do that others cannot? :D

Mobile payment and advertising is the way of the future!

[Harvey Specter]

Have we all given up on GeoOP?Yip - I will keep my eye on it but its ARPU is far to low, and it is in a crowded market so unlikely to get to the scale needed to make a low ARPU work, and cant increase prices/ARPU due to competition.

[Copper]

What a farce,today's trading......Obviously everybody is doing other things or the share price wouldn't have taken that jump...IMHO.

[Rep]

https://nzx.com/companies/GEO/announcements/263877

GeoOp, the workforce management software company, today announces a new Product team.

"Our plan involves a leaner operation, focusing on product enhancements and faster release cycles for our customers. At the centre of this strategy is the new Product team led by one of the GeoOp’s founders, Brendan Cervin. This team is dedicated to making our product better, and improving customers' experience with our application.”

As part of the organisational realignment, CTO/CIO, Jamie West, and CMO, Tim McFarlane, will depart the organisation on 4th August 2015. GeoOp thanks Jamie and Tim for their significant contributions to the team.

[Bilbo]

https://nzx.com/companies/GEO/announcements/263877

GeoOp, the workforce management software company, today announces a new Product team.

"Our plan involves a leaner operation, focusing on product enhancements and faster release cycles for our customers. At the centre of this strategy is the new Product team led by one of the GeoOp’s founders, Brendan Cervin. This team is dedicated to making our product better, and improving customers' experience with our application.”

As part of the organisational realignment, CTO/CIO, Jamie West, and CMO, Tim McFarlane, will depart the organisation on 4th August 2015. GeoOp thanks Jamie and Tim for their significant contributions to the team.

Some good and some bad here. Cutting costs, focusing on profit etc all good (are you listening SLI management?), but capital raising could be tough.

[Harvey Specter]

If that is their new plan, it does make you wonder what their old plan was!

"The old team was dedicated to making no changes to our product, and making customers experience difficult"?

I think they thought they were the next Xero to early. They should have started lean, with faster reiteration. From what I can tell, thats how Vend and Timely started with Vend breaking out of that only once they got big VC money.

Yes - capital raise will be tough. They need to be showing more traction.

[Harvey Specter]

Yes - capital raise will be tough. They need to be showing more traction.Revenue growth over 150% and customer growth of over 80%. Currently priced at 13x AMRR which is high but not as high as Xero. Factor in their revenue for the year and they just have 1 year left of runway at current burn rate.

Capital raising is definitely needed and I wonder if the change in year end (to 30 June) is so that they can present accounts with improved performance over the 3 months to June before the capital raising. Revenue growth looks good but costs still look out of whack.

[Harvey Specter]

AMRR of $1.4m so trading on a 8x multiple so looking better.

Interesting they have applied to move to the full board. I think the NZX should reject it and make them move to the NXT given their market cap is only $11m. Quarterly reporting of SaaS metrics would also help investors. If NZX wants the NXT to be successful, they cant allow companies that should be on it ditch it for the full board.

The Market maker on the NXT would also give a bit of confidence that you can get out of a position quickly too.

I've always thought they were trying to play in the big boys arena before they are ready and this is more evidence.

[trader_jackson]

Maybe they are expecting rapid growth? But even then I do agree that going to the NZX main board with only $11m market cap is a bit ambitious, I am worried that the extra compliance costs could increase costs significantly (but I am not sure so thoughts on this would be much appreciated).

I suppose extra exposure the NZX main board has will mean people look and track the stock more? more liquidity?

I still think GEO has great long term potential, just needs a bit of time (like PEB and XRO)

(Disclosure: I don't hold, but close people to me do)

[blackcap]

I suppose extra exposure the NZX main board has will mean people look and track the stock more? more liquidity?



(Disclosure: I don't hold, but close people to me do)

I don't understand the thinking behind that in this day and age. How does a "main" board create more exposure? All stocks have a 3 letter acronym regardless and they are all accessible thus on our pc's/tablets. I gravitate to an AX stock as easily as to a NZX stock....

Happy to be corrected.

[trader_jackson]

To be honest, I don't really get it either... but this is just what the market seems to do/say... I am just as interested in say Burgerfuel as I am with Fletcher Building (in fact I am hungry to watch Burgerfuel more than I am to watch Fletcher Building)

[Harvey Specter]

I don't understand the thinking behind that in this day and age. How does a "main" board create more exposure? In theory the NXT should have more exposure because they will have an analyst report (how many outside the NZX50 have those) and they have a market maker to give liquidity (to small traders).

Having said that, I am not sure how easy to trade an NXT stock is - is it the same as a NZX one (once you are set up) or have they added an level of complexity which will scare people off? ANZ and ASB have full electronic trading for NZAX stocks so no impediment to trading there so hopefully it is the same for NXT stocks..

[Harvey Specter]

They have announced the details of their SPP. The price is the same as the current market price (48c) so I dont expect there will be any takers. Normally you get offered a small discount. Glad I didn't buy in to get the arbitrage.

[Tomtom]

Option B should still be of interest.

[Survfer]

Option B should still be of interest.

The 5 day averaging period for the SPP opens tomorrow, current share price $0.45 compared to the placement price of $0.48. It will be interesting to see if there is any price pumping. Lots of discussion happening on the NBR site http://www.nbr.co.nz/tags/geoop.

[Harvey Specter]

The 5 day averaging period for the SPP opens tomorrow, current share price $0.45 compared to the placement price of $0.48. It will be interesting to see if there is any price pumping. Lots of discussion happening on the NBR site http://www.nbr.co.nz/tags/geoop.Those NBR posts are hilarious.

The two new investors have been announced (http://www.sharechat.co.nz/article/59fae1c3/geoop-brings-on-two-australian-investors-in-2-4-mln-placement.html) not sure how VC's are going to help out but it is a vote of confidence. Will be interesting to see if they can increase their scale but I still dont think their unit economics work.

[mushroom]

Looks like the NBR are not allowing posts on GeoOp articles anymore. http://www.nbr.co.nz/article/geoop-lifts-revenue-customer-base-first-quarter-b-180372 I think I'll be waiting a while before the shares get backup to my purchase price. If ever.

[Harvey Specter]

Looks like the NBR are not allowing posts on GeoOp articles anymore. They have disabled all comments on all posts as they let a dodgy one through over the weekend so need to review their procedures.

I must say it does make reading the NBR a bit more boring.

GEO Op is finally moving in the right direction. Growth only 40%ish but they seem to be keeping costs constrained (staff numbers down).

[mushroom]

They have a long way to go to make the business viable unfortunately. Lots of competition. They need to increase their client base 4 to 5 times on existing overheads or drastically reduce staff costs. I think they are keeping it alive to safe face but that can only last so long. Hopefully they will turn it around.

[Harvey Specter]

Looks like the NBR are not allowing posts on GeoOp articles anymore. http://www.nbr.co.nz/article/geoop-lifts-revenue-customer-base-first-quarter-b-180372 I think I'll be waiting a while before the shares get backup to my purchase price. If ever.Comments appear to be activated on all posts now.

[mushroom]

2015 Report out now.

To be honest I'm a more than a bit pissed off. Am I missing something here?????

https://www.nzx.com/files/attachments/223216.pdf

So with a total revenue of $1.7 over 15 months.. $614,000 goes to the Directors.. How is this not lining their own pockets at MY @#@#$@ expense. Including a whopping total of $355,000 to Mrs HYPE herself Leanne Graham.

What a scam.

[Harvey Specter]

2015 Report out now.

To be honest I'm a more than a bit pissed off. Am I missing something here?????

https://www.nzx.com/files/attachments/223216.pdf

So with a total revenue of $1.7 over 15 months.. $614,000 goes to the Directors.. How is this not lining their own pockets at MY @#@#$@ expense. Including a whopping total of $355,000 to Mrs HYPE herself Leanne Graham.

What a scam.YOur not the only one who has picked up on this. https://twitter.com/benkepes
https://twitter.com/benkepes/status/657028714341924868

[kiwidollabill]

That graph on page 4 should frighten the hell out of any shareholder. Their customer growth rates are slowing, from a peak of 54% QonQ in Q1 of 2014 they have only grown customer numbers by 7% in the last quarter. Certainly not the sort of figure you expect for a 'growth startup'.

[kiwidollabill]

I find this article quite fitting.

http://recode.net/2015/10/22/the-arrogance-of-tech/?utm_content=buffera2e2d&utm_medium=social&utm_source=twitter.com&utm_campaign=buffer

[winner69]

I find this article quite fitting.

http://recode.net/2015/10/22/the-arrogance-of-tech/?utm_content=buffera2e2d&utm_medium=social&utm_source=twitter.com&utm_campaign=buffer

A very good article ...a must read

[SCOTTY]

The new partnership with www.mycloudcure.com looks good for future growth in the US and Canada. Share price up 10c (25%) yesterday. :)

[mushroom]

The new partnership with www.mycloudcure.com (http://www.mycloudcure.com) looks good for future growth in the US and Canada. Share price up 10c (25%) yesterday. :)

Hopefully they will be able to add the 40,000 to 50,000 base users they need just to be solvent. I doubt it. I don't know how many more funding rounds they are going to be able to do just to keep afloat. As an investor I put dibs on the half circle couch.

Let's face it, GeoOP is just a way that Leanne can pay herself $350,000 a year at the investors expense.

[SCOTTY]

Hopefully they will be able to add the 40,000 to 50,000 base users they need just to be solvent. I doubt it. I don't know how many more funding rounds they are going to be able to do just to keep afloat. As an investor I put dibs on the half circle couch.

Let's face it, GeoOP is just a way that Leanne can pay herself $350,000 a year at the investors expense.
I see that the Chairman is Mark Welden with a 8.38% stake in the Company. When he ran the NZX you would assume that he would have had a pretty good look at all listings so why did he choose to put his own money and commercial skills into GeoOP?

[Yeshiva]

I see that the Chairman is Mark Welden with a 8.38% stake in the Company. When he ran the NZX you would assume that he would have had a pretty good look at all listings so why did he choose to put his own money and commercial skills into GeoOP?

I would be very cautious to think success will come to GeoOP because Mark Weldon's involvement. There are plenty of supposedly clued up people who got involved with dodgy finance companies, tech tyros in years past and the like.

The better question to ask is - "What is GeoOPs sales force like?", because from what I can see, its not that impressive. Signing up distribution agreements for a major market like the USA suggest that GeoOP have no idea on how to break into the US market, and/or lack the cash to build such a great sales team.

[Cobber]

I see that the Chairman is Mark Welden with a 8.38% stake in the Company. When he ran the NZX you would assume that he would have had a pretty good look at all listings so why did he choose to put his own money and commercial skills into GeoOP?

Seriously?? We are talking about the same guy who is running Mediaworks into the ground.

The big question is.... what has this guy touched that has turned out great for investors?

[Harvey Specter]

Seriously?? We are talking about the same guy who is running Mediaworks into the ground.

The big question is.... what has this guy touched that has turned out great for investors?NZX ("Investors" being investors in NZX, not kiwi investors in general).

[mushroom]

Looks like we are going to be stuck with sub 0.40 share prices for sometime/ever? I can't see GeoOP recovering.

If they have not made significant increases in income and actual user subscriptions I think it will be end.

[SCOTTY]

Looks like we are going to be stuck with sub 0.40 share prices for sometime/ever? I can't see GeoOP recovering.

If they have not made significant increases in income and actual user subscriptions I think it will be end.
No no. You must be wrong. I have picked it for the comp. :( It will fly later in the year. :)
Disc. Not holding.

[Survfer]

[QUOTE=Yeshiva;603716]I would be very cautious to think success will come to GeoOP because Mark Weldon's involvement. There are plenty of supposedly clued up people who got involved with dodgy finance companies, tech tyros in years past and the like.


A cynic would suspect Weldon and the other launch director/investors quickly realised they'd been sold a pup. It wouldn't have gone down well that Graham has a stack of shares and at the current share price is the only one of the three launch directors still in the money on their original investment.

Leanne Graham was moved sideways relatively shortly after the IPO, stripped of her options and hasn't been paid directors fees. The replacement CEO cried off, supposedly for family reasons, since then there's been an ongoing reshuffling in the top management culminating in the CFO recently leaving to pursue other opportunities, which is usually an euphemism for being given the push.

GeoOp's disclosure has been so appallingly bad you have to feel sorry for the original investors who hung in after paying the full ticket price, in doing so collectively taking the biggest hit. Perhaps the CFO simply had a conscience, he would certainly know how bad GeoOp's fundamentals are.

[mushroom]

The launch directors were not "sold" a pup I don't think. If you look at what some are paying themselves it stinks to high heaven. The cynic in me thinks they are just keeping the head above water so she can take the pay check and doesn't really care about the share price or long term sustainability of the company. Also being a strategic advisor is very convenient as who wants to be the CEO when the **** hits the fan.

I would like to know what happened to the US market that Leanne was supposed to heading up and pushing. Where they at Xerocon for the last few years in NZ, AU or US? I don't think so. How much time and money are they spending in the US market?

Looking at the share price and the thin market it is, I get that most other shareholders are just holding on hoping they can bail at some point. They don't want to cut there losses. Either do I which is the only reason I have not sold.

The fact remains that it is now a very crowded market with other more professional, better managed and profitable companies doing a better job. The only thing that is keeping their numbers up is the telco (mainly) partnerships and some other smaller partnerships which is keeping the churn rate slightly above into a small positive growth.

GeoOp is and will never be a Xero, its a simple app, that it can easily be replicated as has been shown by all the competition.

If they have not increased their revenue considerably AND reduced their expenses they will never fly. The next quarter report will be critical as I know that I am many other shareholders are sick of holding our breath.

The fact is, we were sold a pup. I take my hat of to the Hype team.

[mushroom]

So the founder and majority shareholder of GeoFLOP sells from what I can see 10% of his shares. Food for thought. https://www.nzx.com/companies/GEO/announcements/277827

What does he know that we don't?

[blackcap]

whats happening here... down to 30 cents at close today? Cannot believe (hindsight is a wonderful thing) the price this got to just after the IPO.

[mushroom]

Sadly the end is nigh. Why else would the founder by selling his shares?

[Tomtom]

whats happening here... down to 30 cents at close today? The share price is meaningless because trading is so thin.

[Survfer]

Geoop didn't give a market update for the Dec qtr, first one they have missed. The market rules require them to give a 6 month update for the Sep/Dec qtrs by the middle of next month. You have to think its already drafted and its not going to be pretty.

[Zaphod]

As of late, GeOP extremely aggressive with their sales campaign. We've also received countless offers of special deals for signing up additional customers.

[mushroom]

The whole thing is bs. It was just a way for pre-ipo shareholders to make $ and for Ms Graham to pay herself a million dollars over 3 or 4 years as "Strategic Advisor". Why doesn't **** stick to people like this?

[Zaphod]

The whole thing is bs. It was just a way for pre-ipo shareholders to make $ and for Ms Graham to pay herself a million dollars over 3 or 4 years as "Strategic Advisor". Why doesn't **** stick to people like this?

Some clients share that view, which is concerning as it undermines the credibility of both parties.

[mushroom]

Wtf are you talking about with "clients"? We shareholders and in my case have lost tens of thousands by putting faith in people who initially looked and smelled good but who are obviously full of it.

[Zaphod]

Wtf are you talking about with "clients"? We shareholders and in my case have lost tens of thousands by putting faith in people who initially looked and smelled good but who are obviously full of it.

Because clients pay the bills and provide returns to the shareholders. If you alienate clients, as appears to be occurring, the whole thing falls.

[mushroom]

Because clients pay the bills and provide returns to the shareholders. If you alienate clients, as appears to be occurring, the whole thing falls.

I'm alienating clients? I think GeoOp is doing a great job themselves and I highly doubt the "clients" are reading this forum. If they are it's probably a good thing so they can move their company and to another solution before the whole thing falls over. I know three people who have left GeoOP for other solutions either due to bad support, bugs or lack of functionality.

[Zaphod]

I'm alienating clients? I think GeoOp is doing a great job themselves and I highly doubt the "clients" are reading this forum. If they are it's probably a good thing so they can move their company and to another solution before the whole thing falls over. I know three people who have left GeoOP for other solutions either due to bad support, bugs or lack of functionality.

No one's claiming you are alienating clients; all I said was that clients share your view about the company obviously due to management's actions/reputation, and this makes it much harder to attract and retain customers. So the bottom line is that I am agreeing with you.

[mushroom]

Thanks Zaphod,

Sad time for "burnt" shareholders, customers and the NZ tech industry.


No one's claiming you are alienating clients; all I said was that clients share your view about the company obviously due to management's actions/reputation, and this makes it much harder to attract and retain customers. So the bottom line is that I am agreeing with you.

[Bilbo]

GEOOP Announces Acquisition Of InterfaceIT Pty Ltdhttps://www.nzx.com/companies/GEO/announcements/279128

I was about to quit this dog but maybe things just got a little interesting?

"Revenues of the combined entities were $4.3M at December 2015, including Callaghan grant revenue for GEO. Operating costs of the combined entities were $8.4M at December 2015.
Combined losses were $4.2M at December 2015. "

Cash flow will be an issue and a capital raise must be on the cards, but at revenue of $4.2M and high growth rates for both companies, with some good cost control profitability may be achievable in the next 18-24 months.

Would be interested in others comments and thoughts.

[Harvey Specter]

So it is a technology acquisition or a customer acquisition?
If the companies are the same size, then does that mean the value of GEO should be $9m as well?
What is the growth rate of the new company?

A lot more info would be need to determine if this will save them.

[Duderino]

So it is a technology acquisition or a customer acquisition?
A lot more info would be need to determine if this will save them.

I was at the shareholders meeting and there was some stuff there that raised eyebrows. i.e. the Chairman waxed on about how much value the listing and board members brought to the table and one of the examples given was that through their smartness they somehow reduced the amount of re-writing of software. Later in the meeting someone asked why the company wasn't as responsive as some competitors with new features and the reason given was that there was a lot of code-rewriting to be done. There were a few other little niggles like that that cropped up during the session that were just left to slide, but overall I was fairly ok with the situation. The offices possibly looked like they would have cost more than they probably should for a business in establishment phase and there seemed to be something weird going on with Leanne Graham, but as long as the costs don't spiral out of control and as long as they continue growing monthly revenue then as a business it should be a going concern and may even go on to become a good one. The good thing about SAAS is that you don't actually have to take over the world and it's usually not a winner take all scenario (like Google with search or Facebook for social or Linked in for networking) - if they run a tight ship and stick to their knitting then there's every reason why this business can go on to flourish.

I don't care about the share price, and I won't for a couple of years, but I do wonder about where all these shrill comments such as "if this will save them" are coming from - if you have any info then please put it on the table.

[Harvey Specter]

I don't care about the share price, and I won't for a couple of years, but I do wonder about where all these shrill comments such as "if this will save them" are coming from - if you have any info then please put it on the table.
From here:


Combined losses were $4.2M at December 2015You may not worry about the shareprice but they do need more capital.

[Tomtom]

...does that mean the value... The value of the company is the value of the idea and its ability to execute, as you mention the share price isn't a relevant measure because trading is so shallow. That’s why I think it’s a little crass* to be annoyed at executives for not delivering in this case. Everyone knew what the deal was from the outset.

*However in many cases of better established companies I think long term shareholders would generate more value through being much more confrontational.

[Survfer]

"but as long as the costs don't spiral out of control and as long as they continue growing monthly revenue then as a business it should be a going concern and may even go on to become a good one."


This topic is getting a thrashing on the NBR site http://www.nbr.co.nz/tags/geoop

[noodles]

A pretty damning analysis by Aaron Bhatnager via nbr
https://soundcloud.com/nbr-radio/venture-capitalist-aaron-bhatnagar-says-geoop-is-not-reporting-essential-saas-metrics

[Leftfield]

A pretty damning analysis by Aaron Bhatnager via nbr
https://soundcloud.com/nbr-radio/venture-capitalist-aaron-bhatnagar-says-geoop-is-not-reporting-essential-saas-metrics

Well spotted, a good post and a very useful listen to any one interested in SAAS reporting

[percy]

Another company I can't understand.
34,225,501 shares on issue.
At 37 cents the market cap is $12,663,435.
Yet the revenue is only $1mil and that includes grants of $284,000 from Callaghan Innovation.
Being profitable appears to be a long way off.

[mushroom]

So $0.26... officially junk stock yet? Just shows the stupidity of this company. Spending lots of money is not a business plan.

[mushroom]

SSH Notice - Silvia Trustees Limited (https://www.nzx.com/companies/GEO/announcements/280696) - The founder is selling out. This is the 2nd time he has sold his shares in the last few months. What is going on?

[Hectorplains]

SSH Notice - Silvia Trustees Limited (https://www.nzx.com/companies/GEO/announcements/280696) - The founder is selling out. This is the 2nd time he has sold his shares in the last few months. What is going on?

Rhetorical question, right?

[Jay]

Obviously the new deck is bigger and costing more than they thought :)

[Survfer]

Seems he's selling out to fund his new venture. Extracts from an article in the NRB on 2nd March, other news feeds also covered this:

> Kiwi entrepreneur Nick Bartlett, the co-founder and original chief executive of (whisper it) GeoOp [NZX: GEO (https://nzx.com/markets/NZAX/securities/GEO)] has launched a Kickstarter campaign (https://www.kickstarter.com/projects/1509130378/bluejay-the-worlds-first-smart-mount-for-your-car) for a device called Bluejay – a mount for your smartphone with built-in Bluetooth.
> The Bluejay campaign launched four days ago and as NBR types has raised just north of $US55,000.
> Its public goal is to get to $US80,000 by March 31. But Mr Bartlett says his company's internal goal is to hit $US200,000-plus (with Swedish rounding, call it $NZ300,000).
> After selling out of GeoOp, he moved to Europe with his Slovenian wife. The pair are now settled in Slovenia for the foreseeable future.

The most interesting question about GeoOP's recent trading activity relates to 15th January when the share price spiked from $0.40 to close at $0.50, a 5 month high, over the next 2 days it fell back to $0.38 and has trended downward since. At the time the $0.50 close appeared to be an outlier, except GEO's subsequent half year update disclosed the company had vested 50,000 shares to the CEO on 29th January on the basis the share price having closed at $0.50 on 15th January. According to the update the incentive scheme shares would be "awarded upon the Company’s share price achieving certain share price targets (based on end‐of‐day pricing on a specific trading day)".

A salties are smelling blood (Darwin competitor). https://try.servicem8.com/switch_from_geoop/?gclid=CJ62qM38hcwCFYJjvAodBXcEbA (wlmailhtml:{7C07DAD3-C279-4C71-90EC-0629DC7974AF}mid://00000018/!x-usc:https://try.servicem8.com/switch_from_geoop/?gclid=CJ62qM38hcwCFYJjvAodBXcEbA)

[mushroom]

Ok, so let me get this right.... GeoOp has never made a profit, from what I can tell the are almost out of money. They are going to buy a company with no money and list on the ASX with what track record? All I can see is that they are going to try to fleece even more people? Thoughts?

https://www.nzx.com/companies/GEO/announcements/280888 (https://www.nzx.com/companies/GEO/announcements/280888)

[Harvey Specter]

Ok, so let me get this right.... GeoOp has never made a profit, from what I can tell the are almost out of money. They are going to buy a company with no money and list on the ASX with what track record? All I can see is that they are going to try to fleece even more people? Thoughts?yes

​Need 10 characters.

[mushroom]

Well at least I wan't the only one scratching my head and looking at the lint in my pocket.

[Hectorplains]

Well at least I wan't the only one scratching my head and looking at the lint in my pocket.

Yep, you'd have to be crazier than a monkey brandishing a maraca on a banana skin high to touch this thing. I'd been looking it over from a contrarian viewpoint but, oh lordy, what a mess... This might be the single worst stock on the NZX. I stand to be corrected as that's a mighty low appraisal...

[Tomtom]

This might be the single worst stock on the NZX. "Pick-a-pup: Future dogs of the NZX." That could be a very interesting competition actually.

[Balance]

http://www.nbr.co.nz/article/media-barred-geoop-meeting-cg-188581

Bad bad sign.