LNG the US gas boom infrastructure play

[Corporate]

Time for a new thread on LNG

Some background:

LNG were originally developing the Fisherman's Landing LNG facility, and even turned dirt at the Gladstone site. This was occurring right in the middle of the CSG boom. Some will remember that Arrow was going to supply gas and there was even a HOA for Arrow to acquire the Fisherman's Land development.

This all got called off when Shell acquired Arrow.

There was speculation of a deal with BOW but nothing eventuated and the project is now parked. Suffice to say the share price got hammered.

Where are we are now:

Market Cap: $60m @ 20c
Cash: ~ $12.5m after placement and SPP

The exciting part is that LNG are now progressing Magnolia LNG (MLNG) in the Louisiana USA, right on the Gulf of Mexico. This report http://www.lnglimited.com.au/IRM/Company/ShowPage.aspx?CategoryId=190&CPID=1922&EID=21466788 gives you a very good overview but some highlights are:

- The project is ranked in the top 5 US export projects
- MLNG is able to be fast tracked leveraging off all of the work completed for Fisherman's Landing
- Initial 4mtpa modular solution
- 70 year site secured with existing deep water LNG shipping channel
- Close to abundant US gas reserves from nearby shale gas fields
- Gas pipeline to site with excess capacity
- HOA for tolling signed for trains 1 and 2
- Funding alliance with Stonepeak to provide 100% of the equity required for 50% of the project $660m
- Tolling agreement to generate US$3.7b EBITDA per train over 20 years

There is a lot to like about this company. But in particular for me I have been accumulating because of these factors:

- There is no commodity price risk
- This is an infrastructure play and will be valued based on annuity cash flows (PE of 10+)
- The model is scalable for additional trains
- Huge upside if LNG can obtain approval to supply non FTA countries
- Funding. I don't know of any other $60m company with a credible partner willing to put up $660m

But the kicker is, take a look at Cheniere Energy (ticker code LNG.us) and the share price over the last 3 years. LNG has a path to follow and there is some serious blue sky. In my opinion 20c will look very very cheap.

DYOR.

P.s. apologies if spelling/grammer is awful. It's late!

[Corporate]

Some more info - Cheniere has a market cap of $7.2 billion. The most recent investor presentation states they have 20mtpa for 20 years locked in sale and purchase agreements with major gas suppliers.

LNG.AX have HOA for two trains totallyin 4mtpa for 20 years

Compare the market caps vs. volumes.

Obviously there is a lot of work to be done and Cheniere are a fair way ahead of LNG.ax but you can see were LNG.AX is heading.

Even 10% of Cheniere's market cap is $710m....more than 10 times LNG.AX market cap.

[Corporate]

LNG up 20% today so far!

[Corporate]

Hopefully some others got on board LNG after my original post. Looks like a 25.5c close today with still a huge amount of upside.

[Corporate]

Today LNG released a very straight forward presentation; http://www.asx.com.au/0CF87DA3-E8C3-45A5-86DB-95C102ABD610/FinalDownload/DownloadId-817C0127047098A0B3E246189B603FC3/0CF87DA3-E8C3-45A5-86DB-95C102ABD610/asxpdf/20131007/pdf/42jw31f7yvd060.pdf

Some significant milestones coming.

If you don't read anything else, this is the key point. This month LNG will ink an equity deal with Stonepeak who will contribute US$660m + US$66m bonus for 50% of Magnolia LNG (MLNG). LNG is currently capped at $84m.

I have a lot of LNG and am watching carefully.

[KiwiGreen]

Just to give a more rounded view of corporates statement. The equity deal with Stonepeak was due 2 weeks ago but the date was delayed a month to Oct 23rd. These things are never 100% so definitely don't take it as fact that the deal will be signed with the original terms this month. Also their contributions of $660m + $66m are contingent on FID, due in 2015. And there are a lot of milestones to pass to get to that stage. So comparisons to current market cap need to be taken with a grain of salt and time value of money calculations - I know most people on sharetrader don't go rushing into things but just wanted to make that clear - i.e. I wouldn't invest in LNG without reading anything other than the comment above haha.

Interesting story though and I will potentially take a position if the equity agreement goes through and I can get it under 30c. I personally thought the price would take a dent on delay in the contract signing but can imagine the charts look good which may have triggered some TA interest to take the SP to its current level. Any TA analysis would be helpful for me.

[gazprom1]

Just to give a more rounded view of corporates statement. The equity deal with Stonepeak was due 2 weeks ago but the date was delayed a month to Oct 23rd. These things are never 100% so definitely don't take it as fact that the deal will be signed with the original terms this month. Also their contributions of $660m + $66m are contingent on FID, due in 2015. And there are a lot of milestones to pass to get to that stage. So comparisons to current market cap need to be taken with a grain of salt and time value of money calculations - I know most people on sharetrader don't go rushing into things but just wanted to make that clear - i.e. I wouldn't invest in LNG without reading anything other than the comment above haha.

Interesting story though and I will potentially take a position if the equity agreement goes through and I can get it under 30c. I personally thought the price would take a dent on delay in the contract signing but can imagine the charts look good which may have triggered some TA interest to take the SP to its current level. Any TA analysis would be helpful for me.

Need to look at the thread Kiwigreen. Corporate started the thread a few weeks ago....in capitals at the bottom....DYOR. Corporate was just highlighting the recent presentation. If the equity agreement goes through you will not purchase it under 30 cents unless the US govt goes into default and/ or there is some major economic disaster somewhere - which is always possible.

Re the charts, you should take a look at them...they look good.

Gazprom

Discl: do not hold

[Corporate]

Good post KG - I sometimes get excited about these type of opportunities.

The delay in signing the equity agreement was a shame - but not totally unexpected.

This is a very important legal agreement that will need to stand the test of time (at least 20-25 years). I would much rather both LNG and Stonepeak dot the I's and cross the T's so to speak.

A few weeks is nothing in the scheme of a £726m, 20+ year agreement.

I also never meant to lead anyone to believe that LNG would receive £660m and £66m imminently. This is the start of a relationship to develop a LNG plant and obviously there are milestones that need to be achieved prior to FID. For example, signed tolling agreements and debt financing.

As for getting in under 30c on signing - I doubt it.

Let be clear. This is a high risk infrastructure play on the US shale boom.



Just to give a more rounded view of corporates statement. The equity deal with Stonepeak was due 2 weeks ago but the date was delayed a month to Oct 23rd. These things are never 100% so definitely don't take it as fact that the deal will be signed with the original terms this month. Also their contributions of $660m + $66m are contingent on FID, due in 2015. And there are a lot of milestones to pass to get to that stage. So comparisons to current market cap need to be taken with a grain of salt and time value of money calculations - I know most people on sharetrader don't go rushing into things but just wanted to make that clear - i.e. I wouldn't invest in LNG without reading anything other than the comment above haha.

Interesting story though and I will potentially take a position if the equity agreement goes through and I can get it under 30c. I personally thought the price would take a dent on delay in the contract signing but can imagine the charts look good which may have triggered some TA interest to take the SP to its current level. Any TA analysis would be helpful for me.

[gazprom1]

Jumped on the LNG train (pun intended!!!) yesterday Corporate. Managed to buy in at 25 cents so happy with that. Just have to sit and wait for the news concerning the execution of the agreement with Stonepeak. Only taken a very modest position so may buy a few more in the coming days.

Gaz

[Corporate]

Jumped on the LNG train (pun intended!!!) yesterday Corporate. Managed to buy in at 25 cents so happy with that. Just have to sit and wait for the news concerning the execution of the agreement with Stonepeak. Only taken a very modest position so may buy a few more in the coming days.

Gaz

Great to hear you are on the LNG train Gaz, and already showing a profit after we closed at 28.5c! Well done.

In my opinion the challenge with LNG is going to be not selling on the way up, because if everything goes to plan people who buy and hold should do very very well out of LNG.

I think you just have to keep reminding yourself that this is not an oil and gas or mining company. It is an infastructure play and will be eventually valued as one.

[Corporate]

Some very interesting information in today's announcement

- approval sought for 8mtpa to non FTA countries
- ADDITIONAL approval sought for 4mtpa to FTA counties
- current new tolling discussions have increased demand to over 8mtpa
- financial close stated as mid 2015.

Things are definitely heating up and this might turn into a very large project.

[Corporate]

Looks like I got this wrong. Total capacity sought it still 8mtpa. Good news none-the-less.




Some very interesting information in today's announcement

- approval sought for 8mtpa to non FTA countries
- ADDITIONAL approval sought for 4mtpa to FTA counties
- current new tolling discussions have increased demand to over 8mtpa
- financial close stated as mid 2015.

Things are definitely heating up and this might turn into a very large project.

[Corporate]

LNG reached 31c today and closed at 29.5c. Bodes very well for mid/high 30's in the next week or so as we get Stonepeak signoff.

[Corporate]

Not many people posting on LNG - but I hope a few got on board at 20c.

LNG up 13% today to 33.5c on strong buying.


Research report just out with a short term 70c target. I think it could go much much higher.

[Corporate]

any idea what the LNG plant will do for other producers like WCL? currently renegotiating price contracts

I can't see LNG's Fisherman's Landing LNG plant getting off the ground anytime soon so there is not likely to be any impact on producers like WCL. I'm sure other LNG projects in QLD will drive up domestic gas prices.

The main game for LNG is MLNG in America.

[tosspot]

Got in at 36.5 today not the best finish to the day but can't see the trend suddenly breaking anytime soon

[Corporate]

Interesting research report here: http://focusresearch.com.au/wp-content/uploads/LNG-Focus-Research-Report-28-Oct-20132.pdf

Keep in mind they received a fee from LNG.

However, nice to see some 4-5 year targets $2.5 to $4 for 4mtpa and 8mtpa respectively.

Holding tight.

[gazprom1]

Up 22% yesterday to 52 cents....focusresearch has put more information out there. LNG has had a great run and has nearly doubled in the past 4 weeks. Thanks Corp for the heads up. May get a speeding ticket.

Cheers
Gaz

[tosspot]

Surprised no one has been on here for a few months now!

LNG's major Chinese shareholder has pretty much sold out today (right when the party's about to start) to Third Point LLC, run by none other than Mr Loeb who was the major winner in the past few years run up on Cheniare.

We saw a brief break of $1 yesterday but an immediate panic sell by lord knows who early this morning to a 20% drop off. Why anyone would do this is beyong me...

Anywho, the market is soaking up all the excess very nicely and we appear to be on track to retest $1 again very soon (everyone on HC seems to finding funds to buy today; long term as well). With a binding agreement for supply due June 30 all but guaranteed, I have a feeling we are in the midst of a significant rerating of this puppy...
So you in moosie. I jumped on board the other day. Im pretty sure this mornings selling was the last 10 million of the chinese investor, after volume hit 53m after the initial 43 pre trade, it slowed alot. Reasoning we will never know but some even suggest it was the russians presuring chinese to remove investments in businesses venturing into USA. who knows, who cares. there gone and up we go.

[bermuda]

Well done to all LNG longs. These are dreams realised. Stick with it. Apparently the Americans are all over it. You have to hand it to Maurice Brand. He was on his knees. Well done.

[Corporate]

Another one where I couldn't be patient! A costly mistake :(

[clem]

Bought in the mid 20's then again in the mid 30's and subsequently been watching its steady climb until it took off recently.Big thanks you to Corporate for bring it to my attention.
Small holding but just enough to dull the pain of watching PEB heading the other way.

[Corporate]

I'm in denial about selling way to early!

Glad overs are making money :-)

[bermuda]

Bought in the mid 20's then again in the mid 30's and subsequently been watching its steady climb until it took off recently.Big thanks you to Corporate for bring it to my attention.
Small holding but just enough to dull the pain of watching PEB heading the other way.

Well done Corporate. I had them for awhile but sold out at a small loss. This LNG thing has just started.

[tosspot]

This really is relentless buying. Dont often see it this great. Shows the mindset of American investors opposed to sleeping Aussie fund managers

[G on]

It's sure a surprise to me. I didn't expect much movement as the FERC filing seems to take a long time to resolve. A lot of optimism for it tho.

[G on]

Well I have de-risked as well by selling part when it reached over 200% of my buy in to get my capital back. Did similar with PBT, Still trying to work out the strategy for this type of movement tho. I have a small (2000) shares in it now so hardly big stakes. It looks more promising than PBT but still has a long way to go. If no signing happens end of June????

[G on]

yep, it's pretty amazing!!!

[G on]

Just when I think it will stall it just seems to take another leap. With the Edison report giving a value of 1.09 there seems to be a lot of confidence it will tick off the next stages. I got in when it was announced that they had the 660m deal and thought than that 30c was ok to get in and take a punt that the rest would materialize over a fairly drawn out timeline!! Even after the FERC filing. Let's hope it doesn't do a PBT.

[Skol]

I don't own this stock, but I'm an avid bubble watcher. LNG is showing all the signs of forming a classic bubble.

[tosspot]

I don't own this stock, but I'm an avid bubble watcher. LNG is showing all the signs of forming a classic bubble.
while I agree there will be a pullback soon as always, if you call this a bubble then you must think the rest of LNG industry is in bubble aswell. compared to other plays LNG is still not worth as much compared to the scope of the proposed project.

[Skol]

Correct!.
Is it beginning to look a little like this?

[Skol]

Or like this, the bitcoin crash. Lots of people lose lots of money. Bubbles are endlessly fascinating, i'll be watching.

Maybe it'll be 'different this time'. lol

[G on]

Does Gas natural Fenosa signing with Cheniere mean their non binding agreement with LNG may not progress to a binding agreement?

[Skol]

LNG, let's see how long it can defy gravity, note the volume.

[Skol]

What now? Hold or fold?

[tosspot]

What now? Hold or fold?
I folded at 1.50 but lets be honest it will be back past that. bubbles dont come and go within days, unless its a junior minor on the ASX

[tricha]

while I agree there will be a pullback soon as always, if you call this a bubble then you must think the rest of LNG industry is in bubble aswell. compared to other plays LNG is still not worth as much compared to the scope of the proposed project.

Bubble, what bubble:confused:




http://www.resilience.org/rendition.large-thumb/uploads/article_custom/1401871498-12ae3e237d360f04a/hubbertcurve.jpg (http://www.resilience.org/stories/2014-06-04/new-energy-report-from-i-e-a-forecasts-decline-in-north-american-oil-supply) Jun 4, 2014

New Energy Report from I.E.A. Forecasts Decline in North American Oil Supply (http://www.resilience.org/stories/2014-06-04/new-energy-report-from-i-e-a-forecasts-decline-in-north-american-oil-supply) by David MacLeod, Integral Permaculture
Well, that shale bubble, didn’t last long, did it?
http://www.resilience.org/stories/2014-06-04/new-energy-report-from-i-e-a-forecasts-decline-in-north-american-oil-supply

The great imaginary California oil boom: Over before it started
by Kurt Cobb (http://www.resilience.org/author-detail/1007107-kurt-cobb), originally published by Resource Insights (http://resourceinsights.blogspot.com/2014/05/the-great-imaginary-california-oil-boom.html) | May 25, 2014

http://www.resilience.org/articles/General/2014/05_May/drillling-california_cover.JPGIt turns out that the oil industry has been pulling our collective leg.
The pending 96 percent reduction in estimated deep shale oil resources in California (http://www.latimes.com/business/la-fi-oil-20140521-story.html) revealed last week in the Los Angeles Times calls into question the oil industry's premise of a decades-long revival in U.S. oil production and the already implausible predictions of American energy independence (http://resourceinsights.blogspot.com/2013/10/the-numbers-dont-add-up-to-us-energy.html). The reduction also appears to bolster the view of long-time skeptics that the U.S. shale oil boom--now centered in North Dakota and Texas--will likely be short-lived, petering out by the end of this decade. (I've been expressing my skepticism in writing about resource claims made for both shale gas

http://www.resilience.org/stories/2014-05-25/the-great-imaginary-california-oil-boom-over-before-it-started

[Skol]

As you know I'm an interested bystander but this looks like a case of over-speculation. These projects will be completed far in the future, from a technical point of view I'd say the bubonic plague might be more preferable.

It's gone exponential, up 5X in the last 3 months, that's a bubble that's in the process of popping.

Punters will have had 3 days to consider their 'investment', if they're overexposed they'll be nervous, the dive from 1.67 to 1.36 happened in a few hours, psychologically a tough one.

[tricha]

Its a Ponzi scheme. Pumped up by the media and companies sucking money out of investors.

US shale boom is over, energy revolution needed to avert blackoutshttp://static.guim.co.uk/sys-images/Guardian/Pix/pictures/2013/9/16/1379331061652/Fracking-in-the-US-010.jpg (http://peakoil.com/production/us-shale-boom-is-over-energy-revolution-needed-to-avert-blackouts) I hate to say I told you so, but…
In 2012, the International Energy (http://www.theguardian.com/environment/energy) Agency (IEA) forecast that the US would outpace Saudi Arabia in oil production thanks to the shale boom by 2020, becoming a net exporter by 2030. The forecast was seen by many as decisive evidence of the renewal of the oil age, while informed detractors (http://www.smartplanet.com/blog/the-take/us-will-not-surpass-saudi-arabias-oil-production-by-2020/) were at best ignored, at worst ridiculed.
Among my many reports exposing the geological and economic fallacies behind the shale boom narrative are this (http://www.theguardian.com/environment/earth-insight/2013/jun/21/shale-gas-peak-oil-economic-crisis), this (http://www.theguardian.com/environment/earth-insight/2013/jul/23/peak-oil-bbc-shale-fracking-economy-recession), this (http://www.theguardian.com/environment/earth-insight/2013/dec/23/british-petroleum-geologist-peak-oil-break-economy-recession) and this (http://www.theguardian.com/environment/earth-insight/2014/jan/17/peak-oil-oilandgascompanies).
Even here on the Guardian, one headline declared the IEA report shows that “peak oil idea has gone up in flames (http://www.theguardian.com/environment/damian-carrington-blog/2012/nov/12/iea-report-peak-oil).”
But the IEA’s latest assessment has proved the detractors (http://www.resilience.org/stories/2014-06-05/iea-says-the-party-s-over) right all along. The agency’s World Energy Investment Outlook released this week says that US tight oil production – which draws largely from the Bakken in North Dakota and the Eagle Ford in Texas – will peak around 2020 before declining.
The new analysis puts an end to the ‘100 year supply (http://www.reuters.com/article/2010/03/10/us-ceraweek-shale-gas-idUSTRE62940520100310)‘ myth widely promulgated by industry, and moves closer to the more sceptical assessment of a US tight oil peak within this decade.
The IEA report says:

“… output from North America plateaus [from around 2020] and then falls back from the mid-2020s onwards.”
The shortfall will make the US, and countries in Europe looking to import from America, increasingly dependent on Middle East supplies:

“Yet there is a risk that Middle East investment fails to pick up in time to avert a shortfall in supply, because of an uncertain investment climate in some countries and the priority often given to spending in other areas.”
The IEA pointed out that in the wake of the Arab spring, Middle East oil states are feeling the pressure to divert massive oil subsidies which maintain production into more social spending to alleviate instability. If they don’t, they could topple.
These countries already pour $800 billion in annual oil revenue (http://www.theguardian.com/environment/earth-insight/2014/jan/17/peak-oil-oilandgascompanies) into energy subsidies – and if they fail to cover the predicted shortfall due to the post-peak fall in US output, by 2025 the average cost of a barrel of oil could climb up by $15.
This March, when I broached them about the danger of an imminent oil shock (http://www.theguardian.com/environment/earth-insight/2014/mar/28/global-market-shock-oil-crash-2015-peak), I was told confidently by a spokesperson at the UK Department for Energy and Climate Change that there was no risk of the lights going out – UK energy policy had it sorted.
Now IEA chief economist Fatih Birol (http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/newsbysector/energy/10873477/Europe-at-risk-of-blackouts-warns-IEA.html) says:

“In Europe we are facing the risk of the lights going off. This is not a joke.”
We need $48 trillion of new investment to keep the lights on – and it’s far from clear that investing in increasingly expensive unconventional oil and gas is going to cut it, without serious impacts on the global economy.
Currently, already, the IEA report reveals that over 80% of oil company investment is going into making up for exhausted fields where production is in decline. The agency also calls to ramp up investments in renewables and increasing efficiency, along with regulatory reform to incentivise investments, as part of the package.
While the fossil fuel empire is crumbling, the renewable energy sector has received 60% of total investment in power plants (http://www.theguardian.com/environment/2014/jun/03/world-not-moving-fast-enough-on-renewable-energy-says-iea) from 2000 to 2012.
Those who keep banking on fossil fuels to solve our energy and economic woes should take stock – they ain’t the answer. The time to ween well off was yesterday.
The Guardian (http://www.theguardian.com/environment/earth-insight/2014/jun/06/shale-oil-boom-over-energy-revolution-blackouts)

[Skol]

tricha says:

"Its a Ponzi scheme. Pumped up by the media and companies sucking money out of investors."
-------------------------

The biggest ponzi scheme in the world is gold and silver tricha, and you've been sucked into it.

[Skol]

LNG's got all the hallmarks of a panic, down 31% in 2 days. So far.

[sommelier]

We love panic Skol. If you're not the one panicking.

[Skol]

Robbo and I are having great fun charting this. Bottom looks to be in @ $1.15 (last weeks first price). Support @$1.20 if it breaks nirth again. Sellers looking exhausted.

I bought some, hoping for a quick buck, probably the 'return to normal', before the rot really sets in.

[Skol]

Already up a few points are ya Skol? You're supposed to stop downramping after ya buy, or are you out of practice? :p

Hosing down with rain, been watching it all day, a few points up. Still think it will fold eventually, this one's got well ahead of itself, but could be a very good trading stock.

[Skol]

Sold today at 1.31, nice 24hr profit. I'll watch this one, good to trade if you get it right.

[GizyGold]

amazing day trading action,good work taking profit off those Aussies:t_up:

[Skol]

Bit quick on the gun today Skol, still tracking upwards. Guess it's good to stick to your guns though. No man ever went poor taking a profit!

I like this saying by a guy who made a fortune in the depression.

"Only a fool holds out for top dollar"

Joseph Kennedy.

[Joshuatree]

Never going to be a parent moose? thats ok each to his own."you gotta know when to hold them , know when to scold them....."

[Skol]

http://www.theaustralian.com.au/business/latest/shell-sees-threat-to-lng-export-plants/story-e6frg90f-1226950455838

[bowser]

Moosie, who do you use as a broker when trading on the asx? I traded this stock today through ASB - the exchange rate was horrible, 0.896 buy and 0.938 sell! Are all brokers similar?
Thought i did well selling at 1.50 before the small drop, until it skyrocketed...

[Wolf]

You can settle in Aud for asb, just open another currency account. Call Asb Securities only takes a few minutes.

[bowser]

Cool, thanks for the help.

[Bobcat.]

You need to open a2nd account? Jeez! ANZ's OMCA has multiple currency accounts (AUD, NZD, USD, GBP etc) all linked to your one account so you can easily trade and settle without more paperwork.

The biggest saving from using an overseas multi-currency account is that Banks don't make a fortune off you from forex transactions with very large spreads. Call ANZ Securities finance ladies on 0800 805777 to open one. I only use AUD and NZD but GBP and USD are also available.

[Corporate]

I am serious regretting selling my 75,000 @ 31c ! Dammit.

Well done to everyone that has rode these to giddying heights.

[Skol]

Double top, is this the beginning of round 2?

[blocker3]

Friday profit taking as usual. Looking very toppy indeed. Think thid is the end of the run as share placement is issued next week. Glad I took my profits now :)

WOW: what a good run to all involved . Well Done

[Xerof]

5932

Jeez, you guys, hopped off at the wrong station?

regardless, well done on makin' some dosh

[Xerof]

Allotment passed by shareholders. 55M shares @ 55 cents coming on line on Thursday. I'm going to look like an owl if this price holds up after the allotment! :O

whats that you say moosie?:p

[Bobcat.]

I would say that this LNG bull run has been extended because Russia has said they will stop supplying Ukraine with natural gas (since they haven't paid their bills and won't agree to new less favourable t's and c's).

...and the locals aren't taking it lightly.

http://online.wsj.com/articles/explosion-rips-through-gas-pipeline-in-central-ukraine-1403013593

[Xerof]

Ahem, Moosie, I think the phrase you need to practise for the time being is

twit twoo

:p

only pulling your left antler

[tosspot]

Starting to burn now, getting out to early, thought I did great avoiding the drop then got slapped in the face.

[blocker3]

Tosspot, predicting what trading bots set up by the big boys will do is harder than picking the top or bottom of a stock running on fundamentals. Just be happy with the profits and remember not to turn out like Sir Isaac Newton during the South Sea Bubble ;)

Moosie what a great run. Are you ready for the pull back.

It will happen, however we do not know if it is sooner or later.

Good luck here.

Cheers Blocker3

[G on]

After getting my capital out + I am just leaving my small amount of shares to just see where it may get too over the year. I contemplated selling a bit more at 2.50 but to me it really has another year to sort things out. I'm not a trader as I just don't have the TA nouse. I can see the appeal tho as it seems to be a volatile share price.

[Intel]

This has been a remarkable stock so far, and one that is incredibly easy to value. You dont need to make many difficult assumptions and believe it or not, you can actually come to terms with how undervalued this stock could be. A business that will be generating circa 800m of EBITDA with 20 year contracts should easily command an EV / EBITDA multiple of around 12x + (~ 10bn company). I dont believe it will be a year to wait either. LSTK due Nov with FID around then as well (Sk E&C have been diligent with their timing so far). Only have to look at Cheniere to see the imense value and the ever increasing tolling prices they are getting for their Corpus Christi project. Probability that the project progresses, I am unsure, and that is what will weigh on the Sp until November... I dont think signing contracts will be an issue at all and imagine they will all fall into place once FID is determined and FERC issue a letter detailing the final approval timeline (much like Corpus Christis have). Go LNG, Go!

[tosspot]

Back in @ $3.02 at close last night for a quick momentum play. Aussie roadshow must have spiked intetest again. One broker calling for $3.40.

Surprised no on has commented at all lately...
Thats because im super pissed i sold out at 1.50

[goldfish]

What platform do you guys use for aussie shares? I have just started trading aussie shares but find directbroking hard for it, they dont offer a stoploss and when i buy them they take a hour to show in my portfolio, not to mention trying to sell when the price is dropping, cost me lots because they take so long to put them on market and i end up having to change it to chase the price up or down.
Any better platforms you guys use to trade aussie shares?

[goldfish]

I didnt think of a physical broker in aussie, will look into that and the book thanks moosie...
If we could do a stoploss trigger on db would make it lots easier, i rang and asked them he said it would cost on the asx. So dont think they will.
Will look into aussie brokers...

[Intel]

Oh... my... sweet... baby... jesus...

All the valuations are going to have to be re-done now. Another 11 MTPA potential to be added to the portfolio. These guys are going to be challenging Cheniere!!!

:D


where di you get 11mtpa from? Can you post the link.

[clem]

where di you get 11mtpa from? Can you post the link.


http://www.asx.com.au/asxpdf/20140728/pdf/42r1nwppvf9tpx.pdf

[GizyGold]

http://www.asx.com.au/asxpdf/20140728/pdf/42r1nwppvf9tpx.pdf

gee whiz, what a sweet share to own, good on the holders, i think Im buying in...

[Intel]

Cheers,

Oh the import facility was for 11mtpa.

The export terminal is 4mtpa.

Can wait to see this open today, rumour has it the cap raising was scaled by 80%. Bring on the US close (AUD 4.24) + more

I still look at the value of 1 mtpa as about USD 100m pa in EBITDA and a EV / EBITDA trading multiple of about 12x, therefore potentiel EV of USD 4.8bn in value once operational. They will have $40mn to spend to get it there (so well resourced). What probability do you put on it going ahead?

[GizyGold]

big day for holders today!! exciting stuff as it moves over that $4 mark. I will watching closely to try to time an entry. Man who would of thought a stock would give holders over 1000% in one year, this could be a similar run to Xero last year after capital raising....

[geo]

What platform do you guys use for aussie shares? I have just started trading aussie shares but find directbroking hard for it, they dont offer a stoploss and when i buy them they take a hour to show in my portfolio, not to mention trying to sell when the price is dropping, cost me lots because they take so long to put them on market and i end up having to change it to chase the price up or down.
Any better platforms you guys use to trade aussie shares?

I use ASB Securities for aussie shares and find them excellent.

[tosspot]

moosie did you sell any on open

[Intel]

Broker opinion on Yahoo Finance is a strong buy with $4 price target. I suppose this was before the announcement and cap raise. Expect many more to climb onboard now as well. The actual LNG site is very useful for brokers comments and research reports as well.

That is from BTIG research, they came out with a $4 target on Monday night (so after Bear head announcement). You can register to their site and read what they have to say

[Intel]

That is from BTIG research, they came out with a $4 target on Monday night (so after Bear head announcement). You can register to their site and read what they have to say

Apologies, I have to correct myelf. They did have a $4 PT before the announcement (initiated coverage on 23/6/14 with a $4 PT)

[Intel]

Exited today with average sell of $3.64. I'll be back once momentum kicks northwards again. :)

I reckon you might regret that decision by the end of the month. Sniffed out a rumour that Bear head will close in 2 weeks with gas supply and transport agreements to be announced soon as well (I hope)

[Intel]

I'm absolutely fine with taking profits better than what I had planned and another conpany I bought with them! You'd think if that rumour was true ghat the CEO would be selling up Intel? Hmmmmm, been hanging around HC too much? Time will tell...

Haha, NO, a much more intimate source than the HC thread. The company also doing a roadshow through the US this week. I will concur with your comment regarding insider sales, and its leaving a somewhat uneasy feeling in my gut. I owned PEB until the CEO and Chair sold, and I am glad I trusted my gut then. This time I feel confident in the progress of the company, upcoming announcements and my analysis of Magnolia alone leads me to believe it will be successful. I have actually spoken to MB a few times and am confident they will deliver, that against discussions with DD where I was less convinced.. I am yet to undertake a proper analysis of the total capacity of LNG exports out of the US as eventually there will be no more demand for LNG projects.. I am expecting / hoping LNG.ax to become around 20mtpa in the long term.

The difficult thing with management selling shares is that there is never a perfect time to sell. My understanding is that MB is on a salary of 323,000 and perhaps he wanted to buy a new mansion? I am sure most shareholders (myself included) have no qualm with that as the SP has risen 1000% and the company continues to deliver on its promises. There are generally only a few chances execs have every year to liquidate some of their holdings and to assume that the rumour of having a deal signed in 2 weeks instead of 4 and expecting transportation / gas supply agreements (normal coursse of business for a project) should limit that is probably not worth a comment...

Anyhow, you're right, time will tell and the joy of being young leaves time well on my side! I look forward to 2015 and beyond for this company which is something you should attempt to do, spend time researching a business, building CF models, learning about industry instead of spending the day to day worrying about ticks on a chart and missing the true ride. :cool:

[GizyGold]

Moosie looks like $ 4 could be coming soon. I brought in the other week but kind of regret loading up earlier in week. Lots to jack the price up further as we go into the next few months

[robbo24]

LNG shares now available on 40% LVR. I'm assuming this is in anticipation of ASX200 listing as it is now seen as a trustworthy, steady stock?

Yeah, it looks like it might push through that 4 and 4.10 resistance and go into

BEAST MODE

[robbo24]

Hammer time

Don't be such a nervous nellie, moosie_900.

[robbo24]

Announcement out tomorrow. Expecting $4.10 break with blue sky up for grabs again as we get some flooding of buyers with DEEP pockets ;)

Moosie, have a look at some of the examples: http://www.marketindex.com.au/asx200/announcements

SKT in September 2013 went up about 10% in share price over that month following announcement and inclusion.

There are, however, examples of the announcement being followed by significant falls in price over the following weeks.

The SP has increased in value by like 2000% over the last few years, recent increases could be resting on the fact that inclusion was pending... Just saying, nothing is for sure.

[robbo24]

At any rate, LNG is in the ASX 200, All Australian 200 and the ASX 300: http://www.asx.com.au/asxpdf/20140905/pdf/42s0skhlys15q0.pdf

[robbo24]

At any rate, LNG is in the ASX 200, All Australian 200 and the ASX 300: http://www.asx.com.au/asxpdf/20140905/pdf/42s0skhlys15q0.pdf

Very interesting... LNG has been testing the 400 resistance/support marker for a while.

Today LNG receives its highest end-of-day close ever at 404.

The last highest close was 403 on the day of its intraday high of 410.

The most interesting part is that the volumes to be attributed to index players, following the inclusion on the aforementioned indexes, do not appear to be obvious.

Looking for a test of 410 in the coming 8 trading days, could be quite the scene.

[robbo24]

Very interesting... LNG has been testing the 400 resistance/support marker for a while.

Today LNG receives its highest end-of-day close ever at 404.

The last highest close was 403 on the day of its intraday high of 410.

The most interesting part is that the volumes to be attributed to index players, following the inclusion on the aforementioned indexes, do not appear to be obvious.

Looking for a test of 410 in the coming 8 trading days, could be quite the scene.

We've seen an all time high of 416, so far, today.

That 410 resistance got smashed in early morning intraday.

That ascending triangle from the last few weeks has broken out, looking for a close above open (and hopefully above 410) on high volumes to confirm a juicy upwards breakout.

[robbo24]

Well I just typed out an explanation but it got deleted thanks to the stupid image uploader. Not typing it out again. I think it looks good.

6233

[baller18]

did u get in early for lng robbo?

[robbo24]

did u get in early for lng robbo?

Let's just say I got in after moosie_900 but for cheaper than he did... Must've been a week or two ago now.

Hell, I even had to suggest to him that selling at opening last Friday may be a bit foolhardly ;)

[robbo24]

I am serious regretting selling my 75,000 @ 31c ! Dammit.

Well done to everyone that has rode these to giddying heights.

Giddy is right at 4.20 intraday high :D

[robbo24]

Let's just say I got in after moosie_900 but for cheaper than he did... Must've been a week or two ago now.

Hell, I even had to suggest to him that selling at opening last Friday may be a bit foolhardly ;)

Wow another intraday high and an end-of-day high close. Radical :D

I was looking at the end-of-day 1 year chart and it looks like every time it closes inside the bollinger bands it starts to go down a bit. It seems to have closed above the upper band though. Not that my attached chart has bollinger bands though.

Below is a better quality version of my chart from yesterday, with today's trading on it.

When RSI breaks above the dotted line is usually when the fun begins on this stock. It even seems to have broken out of its own recent trend...

MACD still on the way up...

Looks ok...

6237

[robbo24]

Wow another intraday high and an end-of-day high close. Radical :D

I was looking at the end-of-day 1 year chart and it looks like every time it closes inside the bollinger bands it starts to go down a bit. It seems to have closed above the upper band though. Not that my attached chart has bollinger bands though.

Below is a better quality version of my chart from yesterday, with today's trading on it.

When RSI breaks above the dotted line is usually when the fun begins on this stock. It even seems to have broken out of its own recent trend...

MACD still on the way up...

Looks ok...

6237

Still looks good - another all time high. 434.

Where will it stop? My guess is maybe not tomorrow.:D

[baller18]

What a freight train LNG is. Where do see the SP heading robbo?

[BFG]

Look at the forward valuations placed on Cheniere then compare. Recent broker targets are north of current price as well.

If you combined a freight train and a rocket, would the sign on the outside state: "when this trains a rocketin, don't come a knockin it"?

[robbo24]

What a freight train LNG is. Where do see the SP heading robbo?

Robbo notes that the upper trendlines for MACD and RSI suggest there is more fuel in the rocket train.

Robbo is cautious because the index buy-in has to be complete before end of Friday.

Robbo is hoping for somewhere upwards of $5, but will keep an eye on the end of day charts.

[robbo24]

Robbo notes that the upper trendlines for MACD and RSI suggest there is more fuel in the rocket train.

Robbo is cautious because the index buy-in has to be complete before end of Friday.

Robbo is hoping for somewhere upwards of $5, but will keep an eye on the end of day charts.

Hmm... Is that a bit of resistance in and around $4.40?

RSI weakening to the spot where the SP usually trails off a bit?

MACD weakening...

Still waiting to see whether a big scale index buy-in will result in a rocket-ship but would be equally happy to take profits and let the SP drift for a time.

Will be watching intraday movement tomorrow :)

6252

[robbo24]

Hmm... Is that a bit of resistance in and around $4.40?

RSI weakening to the spot where the SP usually trails off a bit?

MACD weakening...

Still waiting to see whether a big scale index buy-in will result in a rocket-ship but would be equally happy to take profits and let the SP drift for a time.

Will be watching intraday movement tomorrow :)

6252

Yeeeeech... I sold out at open 435 today. Bought back in at 420 for a bit of a laugh to see if it bounced but shortly after sold out at 418.

Best of luck to anyone holding, hopefully the indexies come through and pop it off for you. I'll be watching.

I am a little concerned that RSI has dropped back within the upper trendline... Yesterday's chart with today's trading.

If someone held a gun to my head there might be a bit of a bounceroo around $4.00, for old times sake.6254

[psychic]

Well played Robbo. :)

[GizyGold]

what an explosive volume Friday, normally Fri not good day for LNG but looks like Monday we could slice through 4.50.

[BFG]

what an explosive volume Friday, normally Fri not good day for LNG but looks like Monday we could slice through 4.50.

Instos squaring away before ASX200/300 inclusion trading starts Monday. Pretty normal really. Very nice close and come back for the week though.

[robbo24]

Instos squaring away before ASX200/300 inclusion trading starts Monday. Pretty normal really. Very nice close and come back for the week though.

Reminds me of when XRO was added to a few index... Like in June (http://bigcharts.marketwatch.com/advchart/frames/frames.asp?show=&insttype=Stock&symb=nz%3Axro&time=100&startdate=5%2F1%2F2014&enddate=7%2F1%2F2014&freq=1&compidx=aaaaa%3A0&comptemptext=&comp=none&ma=0&maval=9&uf=0&lf=1&lf2=0&lf3=0&type=4&style=320&size=4&x=40&y=10&timeFrameToggle=false&compareToToggle=false&indicatorsToggle=false&chartStyleToggle=false&state=11). Climbed nicely in the lead-up, then got smacked back down with the might of 1000 moose.

Same thing happened to XRO in March, as well...

Crazy how XRO even had some revenue to support its grossly overrated PE ratio... What's LNG's PE ratio?

[BFG]

LNG now well over 35% down on top price of $4.49. Support might be seen at cap raise price of $2.60 or psych support of $2.50. This piece, however, speaks volumes:

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/newsbysector/energy/oilandgas/11149412/Iran-backs-down-on-Opec-sending-Brent-oil-price-tumbling.html

Once the bubble bursts, it's almost impossible to stop the bleeding though...

[robbo24]

LNG now well over 35% down on top price of $4.49. Support might be seen at cap raise price of $2.60 or psych support of $2.50. This piece, however, speaks volumes:

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/newsbysector/energy/oilandgas/11149412/Iran-backs-down-on-Opec-sending-Brent-oil-price-tumbling.html

Once the bubble bursts, it's almost impossible to stop the bleeding though...

2.50, 2.25 or SMA 200 are my bottom points.

:D:D:D:D:D

[BFG]

Looks the castles in the sky are starting to crumble...

http://oilprice.com/Energy/Natural-Gas/Petronas-Threatens-To-Scrap-Canadian-LNG-Terminal-Over-Tax-Rates.html

[BFG]

Nice little correlation chart going on between Cheniere and LNG. Pretty obvious US hedge fund sentiment is driving both, but that you can easily trade LNG for a buck or five as Cheniere is the leader and trades before the ASX even opens.

Cheniere just scored $2.5B in funding via a notes issue to build their Corpus Christi plant (2nd). I expect LNG to follow it upwards Monday because of this.

[BFG]

Wow, the picture for LNG looked so rosy not 3 months ago. Now we've got a potential oil war on our hands and fracking in the USA is going to come under INTENSE pressure at these price levels.

I'm expecting some major bloodletting on Cheniere over night. Think this race may be run short-term until oil can find a bottom...

[BFG]

Under $3.00 by end of day. See a retest of $2.60-$2.40 range. Bulls on HC must be FUMING right now!

[BFG]

WOW, Just WOW...

[BFG]

I can see a 1 out in front again if oil prices stay low for a while (which they will). Huge proactive shutdown of unprofitable fracking wells/exploration in the USA and an all pervading fear of commodity prices is going to keep a lid on this for quite some time. I note that managements date for binding toll agreements (November), has once again passed with no notice or explanation. Not a good sign. Shorters sure are living it though.

[BFG]

I can see a 1 out in front again if oil prices stay low for a while
Jeez, that was fast!

Seriously, is no buddy else watching this spectacular implosion?

I note LNG sailed by its self-imposed November date for BTAs for Lake Charles with not a squeek uttered. If these guys don't secure BTAs for any of the capacity then 25 cents where this bubble started will look extremely expensive!!!

[BFG]

Oil sub $50. LNG.NYSE down 4% last night so I expect LNG.AX to be down 10%+ today to sub $2.00. Massive shorts likely to pile in again. Meanwhile, Directors are realising the bubble is over and have exercised big options @ 25 cents. (Still nearly a ten bagger, good work if you can get it eh?!?!)

What the US hedge funds taketh up they can also hammer down. Never forget that!

[JBmurc]

Brought a position in LNG- $1.64 think we will see a bounce of these levels

[JBmurc]

LNG up 13% in the US markets .... : ) 1.85 asx ish today if we see the same movement

[JBmurc]

Goldman Sachs & Morgan Stanley bought net about 2.7 million LNG shares over last week... the same guys calling for a lower Oil price ?

[macduffy]

Goldman Sachs & Morgan Stanley bought net about 2.7 million LNG shares over last week... the same guys calling for a lower Oil price ?

Probably acting on behalf of a number of clients with differing objectives.

An example of Chinese walls in action?

[JBmurc]

Probably acting on behalf of a number of clients with differing objectives.

An example of Chinese walls in action?

Yes very right and also shares that can be sold short through their Brokerage businesses ....


....as for LNG today up only 5% so far 1.72 ...had a sell order in place 1.84 took off well at open 1.78 but run out of legs .....hoping for a charge for the end of the day