Worth Researching

[nextbigthing]

Hello

Anybody care/dare to suggest a company/companies on the NZX that might be worth researching at the moment (to make money of course!)

I don't mind if you think it's worth checking out as a short term trade, a longer term hold as a fundamentals growth stock etc or anything in between but please just mention what criteria you believe it fits and simply why you like it (leaving the debate to the stocks proper thread!).

To start it off for others, I'd suggest looking into PEB as a three yearish hold. IF they can make sales then the shareprice should appreciate nicely.

A note to new investors (or silly older ones)... This thread does not mean go out and buy these stocks. It's simply a starting point to do your own research (DYOR)!

Cheers,

Nextbigthing

PS please don't send me on a wild Moose chase. ;)

[CJ]

Great idea for a thread - was thinking of setting a similar one up.

Share: Heartland
Position: Short Term or Long term buy
Reason: In the short term, I feel Heartland is a value play as once the property portfolio gets cleaned up, and it becomes more established, it will start trading at a premium to NTA like the other banks do. Longer term, as a bank, it should provide a good yield.

Share: Metlifecare
Position: Watch/Long term buy
Reason: The demographics for retirement village operators are huge so I feel there is room for RYM/SUM and MET and some of the second teir operators too. The smaller operators will fall away without the economies of scale. RYM is currently the best in the industry but its share price reflects that. MET is the worst of the three but its share price also reflects that so it has more scope for improvement if it can improve its model/operations so keep a watch out for signs of this. The ASX listing should hopefully provide a bit of support in the short term.

Share: BurgerFuel
Position: Speculative Buy
Reason: It is kicking of its NZ expansion again. Most of the stores have just gone through a refit, new Queen Street store, Store in Christchurch which should be open by Christmas which once they get the supply chain sorted for the SI, should mean they can expand their rapidly. Middle East seems to be doing well so look out for new regions.

Disc: Hold the first 2 and indirectly hold the 3rd.

[Nigel]

Junior mining explorer CZI on ASX. At 4c, market cap is only $2m. They have around $1m in cash. They have some very promising prospects in Western Australia and Nevada. A lot was expected from their first drill programme (survey had suggested possible big strike but didn't turn out that way!) and the shareprice has tanked since. In my opinion it has been horribly oversold. 10c seems a fairer price given their prospects and their quality management (Chairman is Mike Young who took BC Iron from nothing to producer in 4 years and is a real no "BS" kind of guy, underpromsing and overdelivering). As with any explorer it's med-high risk but I think there's massive upside potential on this one.

[Nigel]

Sorry just saw the initial post saying NZX stocks. Still worth a look maybe.

[CJ]

meh That's why I put it as a Watch. People probably said meh about RYM when it first started but it has been outstanding - So wathc out for signs that MET turns the corner (it may not though).

[NZSilver]

Safe: MET (hopefully re-rate, seem to be getting there act togeather but baggage), HNZ, SUM,

Med Risk (but should be good): DIL

Dive play : CNU (regulatory risk)

Spec: PEB

RYM never seems to let anyone down!


Disc: hold all

[iceman]

ATM for long term hold. They have very successfully implemented their marketing strategy in Australia. Now starting in the UK with same strategy and also into China with baby milk formula. They've been adding some very able people in senior roles recently which will no doubt make a positive contribution in introducing ATM products into new markets.

My other favourites are DIl and HNZ but both have been mentioned above so no need to reiterate.

Discl: Holding a fair amount and accumulating

[gv1]

How much would be invested in each. Is it same amt.

[garfy]

After some time and hum-ing and ha-ing...
PEB - an outright favourite, with patience.
HNZ - a long term hold
ATM, CNU, WYN - holding and hoping for good times ahead.
SUM - another long term hold
WHS, TEL, SKT - solid cos. and dividend plays.

Disc.: Hold all.

And there are a few others that 'I wish' if I had any dosh left to play with.

[iceman]

How much would be invested in each. Is it same amt.

Not sure if your question is to me gv1 but I hold a similar amount of DIL & HNZ, which are the largest 2 in my portfolio. My ATM holding is 1/4 of DIL & HNZ but accumulating ATM at 67c & 68c as finances allow !

[gv1]

Not sure if your question is to me gv1 but I hold a similar amount of DIL & HNZ, which are the largest 2 in my portfolio. My ATM holding is 1/4 of DIL & HNZ but accumulating ATM at 67c & 68c as finances allow !

Thanks iceman, I appreciate your comments. I just wanted to see roughly what percentage per stock. sometimes its hard to know how much/% to spend per stock. Or rather which stock to have higher % than other. so I guess you think highly of DIL and HNZ over ATM.

[kiora]

Long term IMHO IFT steady 17 % PA long term return with plenty in pipe line and low gearing; Disc held long term , beats the 'long shots' ??? You can afford to borrow to buy this one to increase the return on your investment.

[nextbigthing]

Thanks for the pointers, there definitely seems to be a general consensus that DIL WYN ATM SUM/MET PEB HNZ are worth checking out, but thanks for all the suggestions which I'll look into as time allows. Nice diverse range of companies.

I'll try and post my research on the relevant threads if I think it's up to it!

Cheers

NBT

[noodles]

Thanks for the pointers, there definitely seems to be a general consensus that DIL WYN ATM SUM/MET PEB HNZ are worth checking out, but thanks for all the suggestions which I'll look into as time allows. Nice diverse range of companies.

I'll try and post my research on the relevant threads if I think it's up to it!

Cheers

NBT

Nextbigthing,

I'd call these stocks fashionable with heaps of potential. However, apart from hnz, they do not pay meaningful dividends. They are also very difficult to value using traditional techniques as most don't make a profit or it is small compared to market cap(hnz excluded).

Question. Are you and investor or a speculator? If you are an investor, look for ideas outside this group of keen minds.

[troyvdh]

Giday troy here ..NBT..would you like to expose your holdings....Im always keen to do so....cheers

[CJ]

I'd call these stocks fashionable with heaps of potential. However, apart from hnz, they do not pay meaningful dividends. They are also very difficult to value using traditional techniques as most don't make a profit or it is small compared to market cap(hnz excluded).Fair comment. I guess I interpreted the original message as asking for those with the potential to exceed the index over the short to medium term.

The big, safe, yeild stocks are more likely to equal the index, which isn't a bad thing - I think a portfolio should have a mix.

[percy]

I think the following companies should make interesting targets for research.Each one is liable to double in price.What you research may discover is whether it will take 2,3 or as long as 4 years to do so.!!All have PEs, pay dividends,are well managed, and have strong balance sheets.
AWF......EBO...... HNZ..... SKL......STU.....TUA

[noodles]

Fair comment. I guess I interpreted the original message as asking for those with the potential to exceed the index over the short to medium term.

The big, safe, yeild stocks are more likely to equal the index, which isn't a bad thing - I think a portfolio should have a mix.

Agreed. However, I wasn't thinking about the blue chips. There are lots of mid caps that can be valued traditionally, but still have potential to exceed the index. I hold SKL, HNZ, CMO, ABA on the NZX. But i can think of others on my watchlist that could easily outperform. They just need a catalyst. E.g. Cvt, tur, tua

[nextbigthing]

Nextbigthing,

I'd call these stocks fashionable with heaps of potential. However, apart from hnz, they do not pay meaningful dividends. They are also very difficult to value using traditional techniques as most don't make a profit or it is small compared to market cap(hnz excluded).

Question. Are you and investor or a speculator? If you are an investor, look for ideas outside this group of keen minds.

Thanks Noodles for an interesting point. Certainly another take on these starting point recommendations.

NBT

[nextbigthing]

Giday troy here ..NBT..would you like to expose your holdings....Im always keen to do so....cheers

Hey Troy,

I'm happy to post my research and decision whether to get in or not on the relevant threads. I can assure you I don't have an 'angle' other than what's stated on here (trying to find research points for making money)!

Cheers

[hillbillybob]

ASX : AVB

Copper explorer in Brazil ( Aussie Co: )

Just been granted ( to be finalised ) US$58 million from a top brazilian bank and US$12 million from blackrock to start mining. us $70 mil total. To be finalised by end of this year.

S/p has been from 2c to 22c last 3 years, they have evidence of near 100 mil tons copper.and 700,000 oz Gold. drilling will recommence next year. they have pleanty of the best copper country in Brazil.

They have quite a few shares on issue and need insto to come in and mop us some liquidity and put a floor under the s/p....this may/ should eventuate when the finance conditions are met and finalised. Mining expected to begin mid 2014.

closed today 8.5c ,6.5 mill shares traded. 35 mill shares traded Monday 7th after most recent report released. apart from a good mid term investment imo, traders love it.

check it out !!!

ps; this is my first post on S/T,

disc; I hold AVB.

[zs_cecil]

I personally think PEB and HNZ depending how much free cash you are willing to lose.

I think if I only have small amount of free cash available, I would go for PEB because it has high risk and high return for long term. Considering its progress in its user program, I believe it is the matter of time for them to shine.

If I have a large amount of free cash available, I would go for HNZ for cash flow as well as steady long term growth. I think HNZ is a very niche bank that keeps itself low profile. It has its unique focus on agri market which would make itself outstanding comparing to the other banks. I don't think it will be another BNZ.

So, small and large is totally subject to personal situation.

[BigBob]

Fully aware that this may set the foamers off, I think that NZO is worth looking into.

Reasons: Good dividend yield for the medium to long term, they have just "encountered hydrocarbons" in an off shore drill, they have an interesting drilling campaign coming up for a bit of short term excitement, and they have just significantly increased their exposure to one of their major assets. In addition they hold a fair amount of cash. The company is unloved, bruised and battered - but if and when sentiments change it could be nicely re-rated...

Disc: hold.

[Billy Boy]

Fully aware that this may set the foamers off, I think that NZO is worth looking into.

Reasons: Good dividend yield for the medium to long term, they have just "encountered hydrocarbons" in an off shore drill, they have an interesting drilling campaign coming up for a bit of short term excitement, and they have just significantly increased their exposure to one of their major assets. In addition they hold a fair amount of cash. The company is unloved, bruised and battered - but if and when sentiments change it could be nicely re-rated...

Disc: hold.
I go along with you on this one...
Not very fashionable at the moment ( on this forum ) coz of unreasonable and misplaced rantings.
At the present SP it's a good accum. share.
BB

[nextbigthing]

Giday troy here ..NBT..would you like to expose your holdings....Im always keen to do so....cheers

Just took a modest holding in PEB after finishing research. DIL very interesting but too volatile for me for now. Probably start on ATM or HNZ research next.

Does anybody know of a listed company that is trying to capitalise on my perceived customer shift towards healthy organic food etc?

Cheers NBT

[nextbigthing]

Nextbigthing,

I'd call these stocks fashionable with heaps of potential. However, apart from hnz, they do not pay meaningful dividends. They are also very difficult to value using traditional techniques as most don't make a profit or it is small compared to market cap(hnz excluded).

Question. Are you and investor or a speculator? If you are an investor, look for ideas outside this group of keen minds.

What would you suggest Noodles? Anything on your radar that you believe is worth looking at but might have been neglected by the majority of the market?

[born2invest]

FRE- Freightways
RYM- Ryman Healthcare
POT- Port of Tauranga
ANZ- ANZ Banking
SUM- Summerset Group

No other companies on the NZX I would ever consider personally investing into. I don't own any of these, as the prices haven't been low enough for me over the past couple of years.

[Heffner]

Just took a modest holding in PEB after finishing research. DIL very interesting but too volatile for me for now. Probably start on ATM or HNZ research next.

Does anybody know of a listed company that is trying to capitalise on my perceived customer shift towards healthy organic food etc?

Cheers NBT

Hi NBT.

I have been looking at Freedom Foods (FNP:ASX) that are in the market of 'healthy organic food' and are also a majority shareholder of A2 Milk, which gives you that exposure if you like the cut of their jib.

A2 had me interested for awhile there, but the exorbitant salaries they pay is quite a turn-off for me.

[nextbigthing]

Thanks Heffner,

I haven't been looking into the ASX yet as I haven't had time and find the NZX easier to keep up with with news etc seeing as I'm mostly in NZ, however it looks like I might have to start!

Thanks for freedom foods, I shall look in to it eventually. The exposure to ATM could be handy if that research stacks up too.

Disc; don't own ATM and have only just heard of Freedom foods!

[born2invest]

have only just heard of Freedom foods!

Read Peter Lynch's "One up on Wall St"

I found out about this company years ago. Reason being I look at every new product in the supermarket, note which company makes it and see if they are listed on a stock market. You will be suprised what you will find. It's quite an exciting little experiment.

[nextbigthing]

Yes. I try and keep my eyes peeled wherever I go looking for opportunities.

That book is next on my list. Currently reading 'how to make money on the NZ share market,' an old book I picked up for $2 or something. Some rubbish but some of it is actually pretty good.

[Captain Dan]

Hi all,

I'm new to ST and investing, so thanks to everyone who posts and suggested PEB. Bought in Monday afternoon at 50c so have been very pleased with the results thus far. I'm doing some research into ATM, WYN and SLI , but would appreciate any other views on ones to research to hold in the medium term (1-3 years) on both NZX and ASX.

I also would be interested to learn about FA. Having not come from an economics background I think I'm getting a good grasp of the TA side of things, but would like to have another tool in the box so to speak. So does anyone know of any good books or websites that would be of help for a beginner like me?

Cheers

[zs_cecil]

It is a surprise/no surprise that no one mentioned Xero so far at Page 3. While investors still keep buying Xero out there, no one thinks it is worth to invest in. I can vaguely sense the tech bubble fear in this thread...

[nextbigthing]

I would suggest keeping an eye on CNU at the moment. Shareprice is well down however this is most likely due to regulatory risk so DYOR and be careful.

Disc; own CNU

[CJ]

It is a surprise/no surprise that no one mentioned Xero so far at Page 3. While investors still keep buying Xero out there, no one thinks it is worth to invest in. I can vaguely sense the tech bubble fear in this thread...No one mentioned it because it is obvious, as sure as the sun will rise each day, so will XRO shareprice. No one can fully explain why the sun rised each day, nor can they fully explain XRO share price.

[CJ]

I would suggest keeping an eye on CNU at the moment. Shareprice is well down however this is most likely due to regulatory risk so DYOR and be careful.Seems an overreaction to me too. We have already been this low and decided that it was worth more and yet it goes down again under the same threat of regulation.

[CJ]

Anotehr one to look out for is MRP. Speculation is the price is being held down to influence the MEL price. In addition, the price is being held down as people sell out to buy into MEL.

Potential for a short term rise once the price for MEL is advised. Its been as low at $2.14 and could easily go back up to $2.30-2.40 if the speculation is true.

[janner]

No one mentioned it because it is obvious, as sure as the sun will rise each day, so will XRO shareprice. No one can fully explain why the sun rised each day, nor can they fully explain XRO share price.

As sure as the sun will rise CJ.. Some one will get sun burnt !!.

Many think that this will apply to XERO..

Not saying that it will happen .. Just that I find there are many more less risky opportunities out there.

Disc. Not Holding.

[Blue Horseshoe]

Does anybody know of a listed company that is trying to capitalise on my perceived customer shift towards healthy organic food etc?

Cheers NBT

Acquisition of Scarborough Fair 5:12pm, 18 Oct 2013 | ASSET 18 October 2013
NZX ANNOUNCEMENT
Cooks acquires Scarborough Fair
Cooks Global Foods (NZAX:CGF) announces the acquisition of the business and assets of Scarborough Fair Foods and brands from Lighthouse Ventures Holdings LP.
Consideration for the acquisition is:
• NZ$225,000 cash;
• 2,887,500 Cooks Global Foods shares at NZ$0.20 each; and
• 10 million options on an 18 month term with an exercise price of NZ$0.175 to receive a share.
The purchase includes all existing staff and assets of the Scarborough Fair business.
Cooks believes there are significant synergies between its Esquires Coffee Houses global activities and those of Scarborough Fair.
Scarborough Fair is a distributor of organic and Fair Trade tea, coffee and chocolate into retail and food service channels primarily in New Zealand and Australia. Esquires is an organic and Fair Trade coffee retailer.
There is therefore the opportunity to achieve a range of benefits through common supply sources and to leverage those for the benefit of the wider group.
Keith Jackson
Chairman

[nextbigthing]

Thanks Blue Horseshoe

[biker]

No one mentioned it because it is obvious, as sure as the sun will rise each day, so will XRO shareprice. No one can fully explain why the sun rised each day, nor can they fully explain XRO share price.

Brilliant! :-)

[nextbigthing]

To start it off for others, I'd suggest looking into PEB as a three yearish hold. IF they can make sales then the shareprice should appreciate nicely.

A note to new investors (or silly older ones)... This thread does not mean go out and buy these stocks. It's simply a starting point to do your own research (DYOR)!




Wow. I hope this thread has led some people to research this stock and make a fortune! Posted when shareprice 50c, now $1. Congratulations if you did.

Looking forward to this thread finding the next PEB!

[clip]

Pretty sure it was that post that triggered me to read the thread, do a bit of research and take the plunge.. thanks NBT _b

[CJ]

Share: Metlifecare
Position: Watch/Long term buy
Reason: The demographics for retirement village operators are huge so I feel there is room for RYM/SUM and MET and some of the second teir operators too. The smaller operators will fall away without the economies of scale. RYM is currently the best in the industry but its share price reflects that. MET is the worst of the three but its share price also reflects that so it has more scope for improvement if it can improve its model/operations so keep a watch out for signs of this. The ASX listing should hopefully provide a bit of support in the short term.well the ASX listing has done more than support the shareprice.

Share: Blis Technologies
Position: Very speculative buy
Reason: the price has bounced off its lows of 0.9c. All they need to do is a PEB (announce some good sales contracts) and the price could double very quickly. From memory it was over 3c at the start of the year.

Disc: hold both.

[blobbles]

well the ASX listing has done more than support the shareprice.

Share: Blis Technologies
Position: Very speculative buy
Reason: the price has bounced off its lows of 0.9c. All they need to do is a PEB (announce some good sales contracts) and the price could double very quickly. From memory it was over 3c at the start of the year.

Disc: hold both.

Agree about the potential of Blis's products, the problem with them is the potential of management, which to me seems exceedingly low. By now they should be selling in many places, they should have divided their SP by 10, they should have many successful agreements with partners all over the world... but they don't and their plans for the future are murky at the best of times. They also suddenly decide to jump into things and then pull out a year or two later - alaaaa the great ice cream experiment....

Looks like once David Darling is done with PEB (maybe in a few years?), he should go to BLT and get them into gear....

DISC: I also hold BLT but the number is so small its not worth thinking about (although the number of shares is huge!). Also hold almost the same number of PEB shares (which I am much happier about!).

[Beetle]

Comvita (CVT) was one of the first shares I bought on the NZX and has gained 100% in value since I bought in three years ago as well as paying a reasonable dividend. It seems to be a bit of a steady eddy these days but it ticks the boxes if you are into natural pharmaceuticals.

[nextbigthing]

The best thing I did was buy as much property and shares as I could after the GFC and it has done me well. The share market is supposedly fully priced or over priced so not the best time to be getting in. Property in the main areas at least is much the same. So what general investment area is down at the moment that is cyclical and is likely to boom again in a couple of years? Any?

[Wolf]

The company's i like quite like at the moment are:
PEB
SUM
ZEL
ATM
HNZ

TRY on the ASX

Disc: Currently hold PEB, SUM, ZEL

[nextbigthing]

http://www.fast50.co.nz/2013/

Could be a very good starting point for research

[modandm]

One of the biggest dangers of doing your own research is overconfidence. It is easy to lull yourself into a false sense of security. To members who say they have done their research on the likes of PEB, I say what experience or knowledge do you have of the healthcare industry. Same for XRO, DIL etc.

Reading posts on this site does not constitute 'doing research'. And reading posts I would guess fewer than 1 in 10 posters is conducting any meaningful research at all. Most haven't even read broker research, which is always a good starting point to understanding a company.

The older I get the more cynical I become...

[winner69]

One of the biggest dangers of doing your own research is overconfidence. It is easy to lull yourself into a false sense of security. To members who say they have done their research on the likes of PEB, I say what experience or knowledge do you have of the healthcare industry. Same for XRO, DIL etc.

Reading posts on this site does not constitute 'doing research'. And reading posts I would guess fewer than 1 in 10 posters is conducting any meaningful research at all. Most haven't even read broker research, which is always a good starting point to understanding a company.

The older I get the more cynical I become...

A stock broker saying you should sell your NZ shares http://www.craigsip.com/About-Us/News/Media-Article.aspx

Article got good old Martin hawes having a rave in the paper today
http://www.stuff.co.nz/business/money/9404614/Stockmarket-heading-for-a-fall

a quote -
Forget things like yields, price earnings ratios, interest rates and yield curves, many investors say as they buy or sell on the basis of how they feel rather than what they think. It is emotion that drives markets, at least in the short term, and this emotion can push the markets much higher or much lower than is justified by their true worth.

See - DYOR in a 'proper sense' is a waste of time of effort ...... real DYOR is about reading the headlines, listening to you mates and worse still believing what most of us say on this site eh

[winner69]

One of the biggest dangers of doing your own research is overconfidence. It is easy to lull yourself into a false sense of security. To members who say they have done their research on the likes of PEB, I say what experience or knowledge do you have of the healthcare industry. .......


Interesting statement .... some seem to be 'experts'. All I know and with all due respect to MAC et al I would not want them to be my doctor if I presented (see I use the right words) with blood in the urine (or whatever the term they use is).

[alistair85]

Hi All.

I have 2 questions.. Both of which are very different but interested to see people opinions.

1) Thoughts on GPG shares on the NZX?

2) Bitcoin!!! Thoughts/Opinions? Been going mental recently! Already has made many a lot of money.

Thanks

[winner69]

I just don't get bitcoin but found this chart interesting

Comparing the parabolic rise in the value of bitcoin with the bubble of all bubbles ... The South Seas Bubble of a few years ago

Bitcoin is the blue line

[winner69]

Alistair said 'Already has made many a lot of money'........this dude hasn't

If the above chart is indicative of where Bitcoin could be heading by the time he finds them in the football sized dump they might not be worth much anyway


Dad bins Bitcoins worth £4.5MILLION on hard drive now buried at his local tip

http://www.mirror.co.uk/news/uk-news/james-howells-binned-bitcoins-now-2862181

[winner69]

You'll need to get Belg to advise you on GPG .... he the local expert

Here is a thread
http://www.sharetrader.co.nz/showthread.php?1501-Guinness-Peat-Group-Plc-(GPG)&p=440852&highlight=gpg#post440852

[born2invest]

So what general investment area is down at the moment that is cyclical and is likely to boom again in a couple of years? Any?

It's simple really.

The Jamaican Dollar!

http://www.xe.com/currencycharts/?from=NZD&to=JMD&view=10Y

[nextbigthing]

Thanks MAC, great post. I'm sure the recent bloom of PEB will have a few interested in these kinds of stocks.

So there's probably about a 50% chance of a left wing government next election. They seem intent on destroying the shareprice of power companies, CNU etc. So what are they going to support? Perhaps there's some listed 'green' companies that are in for grants and tax breaks? Probably a bit early but could be worth considering companies that will prosper with labour/greens 'in control'. Maybe somehow we can invest in WINZ?

[Harvey Specter]

Thanks MAC, great post. I'm sure the recent bloom of PEB will have a few interested in these kinds of stocks.

So there's probably about a 50% chance of a left wing government next election. They seem intent on destroying the shareprice of power companies, CNU etc. So what are they going to support? Perhaps there's some listed 'green' companies that are in for grants and tax breaks? Probably a bit early but could be worth considering companies that will prosper with labour/greens 'in control'. Maybe somehow we can invest in WINZ?use RBD as a proxy for WINZ ;)

[nextbigthing]

use RBD as a proxy for WINZ ;)

Ha classic!

[arc]

Just took a modest holding in PEB after finishing research. DIL very interesting but too volatile for me for now. Probably start on ATM or HNZ research next.

Does anybody know of a listed company that is trying to capitalise on my perceived customer shift towards healthy organic food etc?

Cheers NBT

... CVT Comvita. Health food focus, Runs from a small shop/plant in Paengaroa, [ past TePuke on the way to rotorua] 20 min form Tauranga.

News, http://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/news/article.cfm?c_id=3&objectid=11164076

[axe]

use RBD as a proxy for WINZ ;)


http://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/news/article.cfm?c_id=3&objectid=11161505


From 23/11/13

"" The company opened its eighth Carl's Jr store in Otahuhu this week "" :scared:

[Harvey Specter]

http://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/news/article.cfm?c_id=3&objectid=11161505


From 23/11/13

"" The company opened its eighth Carl's Jr store in Otahuhu this week "" :scared:

yip. RBD a great yeild stock with growth coming from CJ.

Their KFC competitor , Nandos, is in big trouble.

Pizza Hut has been redesigned (smaller menus) so the only issue is Starbucks which they are exiting as leases end.

[Bjauck]

use RBD as a proxy for WINZ ;)

Would RBD actually be safe under a Lab/Green coalition. If such a government is more interventionist in nature, would they baulk at intoducing a fat tax? Perhaps fresh fruit and veg would be given more favourable GST ratings...e.g. a nil rating. Perhaps prepared hot foods would be taxed more heavily? Would they have alcoholic drinks companies in their sights too? Perhaps not only power companies and CNU, SKT, SKC etc would have their profitability regulated away.

[janner]

Would RBD actually be safe under a Lab/Green coalition. If such a government is more interventionist in nature, would they baulk at intoducing a fat tax? Perhaps fresh fruit and veg would be given more favourable GST ratings...e.g. a nil rating. Perhaps prepared hot foods would be taxed more heavily? Would they have alcoholic drinks companies in their sights too? Perhaps not only power companies and CNU, SKT, SKC etc would have their profitability regulated away.


The Liabour/ Gween coalition would not dare to interfere with the Hamburger ..Chips and Coca Cola Tribe that put them into power..

Even if they have to provide St. Johns to take the Obese to the polls..

[couta1]

The Retirement sector stock will do well under any Government, is currently underfunded yet still generating good profits, with the massive tailwind and increasing voter clout you've gotta have some of your money in here,Sum and Rym over Met until it proves itself

[arc]

An interesting sideways move by Seeka Kiwifruit SEK
Perhaps hoping to catch a ride on the Asian milk express

http://www.reuters.com/finance/stocks/SEK.NZ/key-developments/article/2878298



(http://www.reuters.com/finance/stocks/SEK.NZ/key-developments/article/2878298)

[Major von Tempsky]

Hmmm, none of you has spotted the one I did, and no I'm not telling until after June next year by which time I hope to have accumulated a sizeable position....you don't seem to be casting your net very widely....

[nextbigthing]

Hmmm, none of you has spotted the one I did, and no I'm not telling until after June next year by which time I hope to have accumulated a sizeable position....you don't seem to be casting your net very widely....

Come on Major that's not fair. That's like Santa putting kids presents under the tree two weeks before Christmas but not letting them open them until June.

Christmas is the time for friendship and sharing Major.....

[In4a$]

Hmmm, none of you has spotted the one I did, and no I'm not telling until after June next year by which time I hope to have accumulated a sizeable position....you don't seem to be casting your net very widely....
We probably spotted it and wrote it of as a dog, you could be backing the wrong horse here Major - !!

[couta1]

We probably spotted it and wrote it of as a dog, you could be backing the wrong horse here Major - !!
As long as hes not backing Chorus or Rakon he cant go wrong

[nextbigthing]

Anybody care to hazard a guess as to what company has the potential to be the next Xero or PEB? Something that's worth keeping an eye on...

[SimonHouse]

Good lord, if only we knew the answers to that NBT!

I'm sure there are some exciting companies that are up and coming out there. Anyone heard of any new ones due to list in the next few months?

[Xerof]

Anybody care to hazard a guess as to what company has the potential to be the next Xero or PEB? Something that's worth keeping an eye on...

XRO and PEB seem obvious candidates

[baller18]

Iil on asx is worth keeping an eye on, could do a pbt

[Santiago]

Good lord, if only we knew the answers to that NBT!

I'm sure there are some exciting companies that are up and coming out there. Anyone heard of any new ones due to list in the next few months?

I'd keep an eye on Vend and Mako Networks. Not sure if they'll list anytime soon, but both look like they're going places. Anyone know if they have listing plans?

[clip]

Iil on asx is worth keeping an eye on, could do a pbt

i've gone deep in PBT, can't hardly wait for AD results :D
BIT is another one I have bought into on ASX, had good results yesterday for their drug to treat patients with both HIV & hep C, in all trial patients it showed all signs of the HEP-C virus were no longer present at 12 & 24 week marks, when used in combination with other drugs already being used to "treat" (manage) the virii. DYOR.

If there were any NZX listed 3d printing or solar power companies in NZ I would be researching those, but I have not seen any as yet. Haven't had a chance to look for ASX 3d printing companies as yet.

[couta1]

WYN and Serco are my bets.
Being medically inclined I say PEB and I like Serko

[Harvey Specter]

Brieley has taken up a small stake in Allied Farmers. Is that dog finally got rid of its feas?

[Heffner]

Another way to word the question - what do you have in your speculative portfolio?

I have recently bought into a Share listed on Sharemart called SYFT technology. Highly speculative, but is already up a fine 66% (unrealized of course, hoping for an NZX listing) since I bought in.

Bought in purely on the news the Chanui guy was made their new CEO. As good as their technology is, from what I read they were basically a bunch of scientists with little business acumen. A good CEO and what seems to be an excellent product. On the back of the that ACC holding 14-15% of the company can't be a bad thing.


http://www.nbr.co.nz/opinion/chanui-tea-guy-doug-hastie-pushes-29m-tech-basket-case-to-profit-syft-CK

[clip]

Re. Harvey - I forgot to mention - that is one i have been looking at from time to time over the last few months. While they are still making a loss, livestock division is doing well and plans to pay back debt are underway. Need to do more research on the remaining outstanding debts. I think there is still some downside to the current SP, if it drops to 4 or below I will likely try to pick some up however. It's still VERY illiquid currently also


Allied Farmers Ltd (ALF) has reported an unaudited operating loss of $0.47m
for the six months to December 2013 (1HY:2012 $5.5m loss).

The six months ending 31 December 2013 has seen an improved result from the
Livestock Division and considerable progress with the Group either satisfying
or making achievable arrangements in relation to significant outstanding
obligations.

The Livestock Division reported a profit before tax of $0.37m for the 6
months. This was $1.2m better than the same period last year when a pre-tax
loss of $0.8m was reported. NZ Farmers Livestock Limited (67% owned by Allied
Farmers), continues to perform ahead of expectations, with overall livestock
sales 18% ahead of the same period last year and particularly good increases
in the Taranaki, King Country and Manawatu regions. Traditionally the
Livestock Division makes most of its earnings in the second six months and
again based on the level of forward herd sale contracts this year we would
expect the second half profits for Rural to exceed last year.

The Asset Management Services division made a profit of $0.17m for the period
(last year $3.8m loss). This was largely related to the reversal of some
overprovisioning of ex Hanover assets. The value of these assets left to
realise is now less than $0.2m.

During the six months pleasing progress was made in relation to some
significant obligations. An arrangement was made with IRD which will see
their debt repaid over two years. The ALF owned saleyards were sold to
subsidiary company NZ Farmers Livestock Limited and the proceeds used to
repay secured borrowings to Crown Asset Management Ltd (CAML), with the
liability now at $2.7m, down from $7.0m last year. In December 2013 a
conditional agreement was reached with Speirs Group to settle a $2m liability
for shares and a deferred payment, together worth $1.2m. This agreement went
unconditional and settled in January 2014 and as a result $0.9m will be
written back to profit in the second half result.

For the next six months ALF will continue to explore options with CAML to
repay the secured debt whether this is by way of further asset sales,
replacement debt or raising further capital. The focus for the Livestock
division will be to continue to grow NZ Farmers Livestock's business
activities.

[milt1968]

TON ;) you know you want to

[russbus]

Thank you!!!:D in regards to TON

[kiora]

Well that's working :) ...
Don't jinx it !

Long term IMHO IFT steady 17 % PA long term return with plenty in pipe line and low gearing; Disc held long term , beats the 'long shots' ??? You can afford to borrow to buy this one to increase the return on your investment.

[nextbigthing]

So anybody care to update what they think is currently worth researching?

While it's obviously not NZX, Russia is going through some serious strife, there may be some cheap assets to be had in the future. I plan on researching now to be ready and waiting to pounce at the bottom when things turn and pick up again. So that's my tip. Watch Russia!

http://www.stuff.co.nz/business/world/64232777/russia-tries-to-halt-rouble-collapse

[Beagle]

You could be right NBT but be careful. Watching CNBC this morning the Russian index is down 53% in the last 6 months and interestingly so is the Rouble.
The compund effect for say a U.S. investor who made an unhedged investment in the Russian index 6 months ago is their investment is now worth 22.09 cents on the dollar. You think they might be a bit annoyed :D
Putin's a wild card so anything can happen...you probably better off down at Sky City. At least they play by a set of rules not make them up as they go along.
Who's to say he won't nationalise large chunks of the market to retaliate against fresh U.S. sanctions ? I tell ya, where angel's fear to tread you should be absolutely terrified to do so.
I'd only be interested if there was a regime change for the better...I reckon this bitter and acrimonious cold war could drag on for many, many years...check out the length of previous cold wars...there's your homework for tonight mate :)

[Schrodinger]

You could be right NBT but be careful. Watching CNBC this morning the Russian index is down 53% in the last 6 months and interestingly so is the Rouble.
The compund effect for say a U.S. investor who made an unhedged investment in the Russian index 6 months ago is their investment is now worth 22.09 cents on the dollar. You think they might be a bit annoyed :D
Putin's a wild card anything can happen...you probably better off down at Sky City at least they play by a set of rules not make them up as they go along like Putin does.
Who's to say he won't nationalise large chunks of the market to retaliate against fresh U.S. sanction ? I tell ya, where angel's fear to tread you should be absolutely terrified to do so.
I'd only be interested if there was a regime change for the better...I reckon this acrimonious cold way could drag on for many, many years...check out the length of previous cold wars...there's your homework for tonight :)

Hi guys is this the place to pump some stocks?

In that case VML, SKO and RAK (just kidding).

[nextbigthing]

Hi guys is this the place to pump some stocks?


Nope, that gets done on the PEB thread :D

[nextbigthing]

You could be right NBT but be careful. Watching CNBC this morning the Russian index is down 53% in the last 6 months and interestingly so is the Rouble.
The compund effect for say a U.S. investor who made an unhedged investment in the Russian index 6 months ago is their investment is now worth 22.09 cents on the dollar.

Exactly Roger. I'm not going anywhere near it yet because I believe it still has a long way to go (down), however once things have settled down (I'm guessing maybe 12-18 months (complete guess)) then it will be time to pounce. As you say it's already down 53% in six months. Imagine the bargains to be had if carefully picked out. Hopefully good solid performers over there are being irrationally hammered, given in a couple of years they will return to normal earnings. Could be a chance to pick up quality stocks dirt cheap.

Just something for people to think about anyway. I'll certainly be looking into it further.

I see the interest rate there has just been cranked to 17%. Shame inflation is probably higher still....

[Beagle]

You're on to it mate. I think this guy on CNBC pretty cautious for now.
http://www.cnbc.com/id/102273812

[BFG]

RUSS and RUSL are leveraged bets on the MICEX.

Be very careful. Oil is going down still, the ruble pretty much imploded today and the government is admitting recessiom is a foregone conclusion.

[nextbigthing]

Could be worth researching.

http://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/news/article.cfm?c_id=3&objectid=11458369

[Xerof]

Could be worth researching.

http://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/news/article.cfm?c_id=3&objectid=11458369yer, possibly worth a look

[nextbigthing]

So times have def changed. What's on your watchlists now? Anything stand out as still worth researching and possibly buying? Long or short term. Cheers NBT

[noodles]

So times have def changed. What's on your watchlists now? Anything stand out as still worth researching and possibly buying? Long or short term. Cheers NBT
My conviction list : SCL, SEK, AWK, THL, TIL, CVT, EBO

[DarkHorse]

I like each of those companies too (Great minds...albeit for AWK and EBO noodle's suggestions lead me to look into them)
Each one passes my four tests - good value relative to eps growth and ROC (PE AND cashflow); sound balance sheet esp low debt; rational and candid management who focus on eps and roc not empire building; solid track record and good prospects - considering overall sector prospects and competitive position (AWK recently listed but long history as a private company)
Of course DYOR and don't put the house on one or two though - diversification is vital with small-caps!

[percy]

Yes I must agree with both of you.
THL I do not hold,yet pleased to be proven wrong for not buying it.
Possibly to have a more diversified portfolio a financial organisation,such as a bank should be added.!! lol.

[nextbigthing]

Might I add PGW to the list?

Disc hold. NBT

[percy]

Might I add PGW to the list?

Disc hold. NBT

Why.???????????????????????????????????????????
What eps growth do you see?

[Sgt Pepper]

Blis Technologies?

[NZSilver]

I bought scl, iqe and the in the last month. Iqe I'm a bit worried about but thl and scl I think are undervalued and should benefit from low NZD. I also am interested in skl and aia but don't hold. Aia seems expensive but may not change. Skl has risks but a lot of its products are industry consumables so should do alright - and its price is cheap at the moment. Would like others thoughts.

[NZSilver]

Thl Not the

[percy]

I bought scl, iqe and the in the last month. Iqe I'm a bit worried about but thl and scl I think are undervalued and should benefit from low NZD. I also am interested in skl and aia but don't hold. Aia seems expensive but may not change. Skl has risks but a lot of its products are industry consumables so should do alright - and its price is cheap at the moment. Would like others thoughts.

We have AIA in the wife's portfolio.Never cheap.
SKL.I have on my watch list.The down trend just continues.I expect there will be a few of us buying when the trend changes.
I got my timing all wrong with IQE,and have decided to hang on to them.May review our holding when next year's interim comes out.February next year I think.ROE and yield look good.Just need to see eps growth.

[James108]

We have AIA in the wife's portfolio.Never cheap.
SKL.I have on my watch list.The down trend just continues.I expect there will be a few of us buying when the trend changes.
I got my timing all wrong with IQE,and have decided to hang on to them.May review our holding when next year's interim comes out.February next year I think.ROE and yield look good.Just need to see eps growth.

No kidding SKL dropped 2.5% today. Must be approaching good value soon.. I keep telling myself I will do some research this weekend, need to get round to it!

[nextbigthing]

Why.???????????????????????????????????????????
What eps growth do you see?

Nothing major, what I do see is an undervalued stock relative to it's own diversified risk and reward profile for the great dividend. I think it's relatively undervalued. It may stay that way but you can collect your >10% yield while you wait :)

[noodles]

Nothing major, what I do see is an undervalued stock relative to it's own diversified risk and reward profile for the great dividend. I think it's relatively undervalued. It may stay that way but you can collect your >10% yield while you wait :)
Everyone has different investment objectives and timeframes. What may be suitable for nextbigthing, may not be suitable for percy. So I think you are both right.
All the stocks I've listed have tailwinds and will almost certainly grow earnings over the next year. Although I'm a fan, I did not include PGW on that basis.

[nextbigthing]

There's a few stocks that I look at thinking they're great stocks but they're too expensive so I'll wait until they're cheaper. AIA, FPH and RBD to name some examples. Every time I look I think, they must be cheaper now! ...But they've gone up another 10% etc. Bloody frustrating.

[percy]

No kidding SKL dropped 2.5% today. Must be approaching good value soon.. I keep telling myself I will do some research this weekend, need to get round to it!

And I thought about buying at $1.38,but looked at the chart and saved myself.!

[percy]

Nothing major, what I do see is an undervalued stock relative to it's own diversified risk and reward profile for the great dividend. I think it's relatively undervalued. It may stay that way but you can collect your >10% yield while you wait :)

Yes,but without eps growth they lack the capacity to pay increasing dividends.
I have just read the full announcement accounts,and think they look none too flash.

[percy]

There's a few stocks that I look at thinking they're great stocks but they're too expensive so I'll wait until they're cheaper. AIA, FPH and RBD to name some examples. Every time I look I think, they must be cheaper now! ...But they've gone up another 10% etc. Bloody frustrating.

totally agree.I have often made a good profit on a spec and have put the proceeds into the "too expensive" companies.Then been surprised at how well they have done.
I guess great companies keep surprising on the upside.?

[nextbigthing]

Yes,but without eps growth they lack the capacity to pay increasing dividends....

Jebus Percy they currently pay >10%, how much do you need!

[percy]

Jebus Percy they currently pay >10%, how much do you need!

It is a trade off between growth and yield.
Only you can decide what you want.
I feel eps will not grow over the next two years.
So should the yield drop,because earnings are under pressure,what direction will the share price go?

[Jim]

It is a trade off between growth and yield.
Only you can decide what you want.
I feel eps will not grow over the next two years.
So should the yield drop,because earnings are under pressure,what direction will the share price go?

I totally agreed. The share price will hit south with a profit warning

[nextbigthing]

Good debate, let's take it to the PGW thread though aye

[DarkHorse]

I see there are only a handful of posts on AWK in 2015 - albeit from highly esteemed posters.
I think they're a little beauty! Their strengths are not immediately obvious (hence the value opportunity) but it is well worth reading their reports and looking at their track record - they really are "worth researching" :)

[Frankenstein]

Hoping to take a bit of time to do some research over the break - are there any other suggestions for this thread?

[nextbigthing]

Hoping to take a bit of time to do some research over the break - are there any other suggestions for this thread?

Very good question Frankenstein, I was going to ask the same.

I've so far been pointed in the direction of SCL, NZR, PAY and KNL (asx). I haven't really started so I don't know if they're going to be any good. Disc no direct holding in any of these yet.

I've also updated my research on PGW, which I do own.

[Jantar]

One which seems to get overlooked is NWF. It has never made a profit yet and is currently trading at 2/3 of its NTA.

But, it is debt free, has spare cash, and its VCT driven board were given a major shakeup at the last SHM. Its total loss was less than the Directors fees, and the directors were told by the meeting to start prioritising costs. I would expect that NWF should pay a maiden dividend in 2016.

Topped up with a few more today.

[nextbigthing]

With reporting season almost upon us, is anyone brave enough to cast their predictions as to who may surprise, good or bad, and therefore be worth researching?

[Lewylewylewy]

SCL will be the biggest. They're the only ones whose shade price isn't already factoring in growth. A hint of the growth has already been given by the special dividend. I just don't understand why they've been falling recently

[stevevai1983]

SCL will be the biggest. They're the only ones whose shade price isn't already factoring in growth. A hint of the growth has already been given by the special dividend. I just don't understand why they've been falling recently

maybe it's because they won't have much growth for 2016? (2015 is too good!!)

[LAC]

Compac sort IPO, I have done some work with these guys and they do some great stuff but may not be the best time to list...

http://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/news/article.cfm?c_id=3&objectid=11588395

[nextbigthing]

With the OCR cut (and further signaled cuts) and the dollar sliding in value, I guess it makes sense to look into companies with high overseas revenue and some (now hopefully cheaper) debt. Preferably divvy paying with the current low bank returns. SCL fits the bill and has already seen a nice lift over the last couple of days. Perhaps FPH? Any other suggestions for ones that may be worth researching?

[forest]

nextbighting I think it could be worth looking into Sanford. This company has been unloved for some time by the investment community.
However a few things have changed in the last year or so. The NZ$ has moved in the right direction, the price of fuel considerable for a fishing fleet has reduced.
SAN has a new CEO Volker Kuntzsch who seems energetic and is moving from selling seafood as a commodity to processing seafood into value added products. On todays SP the company pays a gross dividend of app 5%. Also the CEO purchased shares on market last month.

[kura]

Agree entirely with your sentiment Forest. Have held SAN for approx 30 years (for sentimental reasons...used to work for them ) during which time the shares did nothing much, apart from paying divvy.
The new CEO is making all the right noises about change in approach, & will do well if successful.
Only note of caution would be that was recent off market sale by major shareholder to some Japanese firm at discount to current market price.

[forest]

kura you right about the discount, didn't realise, don't know what to think about that.

[percy]

kura you right about the discount, didn't realise, don't know what to think about that.

Could be fishy?

[forest]

Could be fishy?

Fishy maybe? Or maybe the changes affecting this company will catch you a big one.:) Do some research and find out in due coarse.

[forest]

Been thinking a bit more about Avalon investment Trust sale of a parcel of shares recently below market value. So I phoned them and ask the question.
Explanation I got was that selling of a parcel this size takes time to negotiate and the share price moves during that time.
With other words might not have been a discount at time of deal making.
The buyer was Japanese largerst seafood company (Maruha Nichiro Corporation) and apparently also a customer of Sanford. I can see some potential in a stronger relation.

Anyway I am not recommending Sanford (Percy could well be right that there is something fishy), I was just suggesting time spend researching SAN could be worthwhile. :)

[percy]

I should not comment,...... but I will.!!
The charts show SAN's sp on a wonderful upward trajectory.
Is it because of the lower NZ $, or lower oil price,or both?
The new CEO is certainly making inroads in re-organising the business.
This needs to be done as SAN has had a very poor ROE and generally been a poor performer.
Avalon Trust.?Goodfellow? If so they have been there for a very long time.

[Beagle]

http://www.4-traders.com/SANFORD-LIMITED-6491409/consensus/

Consensus broker price target $5.44. Large sale went through at $5.70.
TA folks will love it as its in a clear uptrend.

Fishing fleets burn a lot of fuel and the price of fuel has dropped dramatically but are we talking about a diminishing resource and will they have to travel further to fill their quota's ?

[forest]

Thanks for commenting Percy,
The Goodfellows were shareholders in Avalon Trust and one of them is still an director I believe. I think the Goodfellows might have sold their share holding in Avalon Trust some time ago. I hope to be able to confirm this and let you know.
Very poor historic ROE I agree, that is what attracts me to do some research on SAN because if they get that into the double digits.......

[forest]

After a bit more digging it seems that Thomas Bruce Goodfellow still has a 20% share holding in Avalon. It also seems that other members of the Goodfellow family have sold out of Avalon last year.

So what to make of it all? I see a lot of changes in the way SAN is managed and potential of a turnaround story not unlike THL. But it is hard not to be wary of insiders reducing their shareholding or to bet against an experience ST member like Percy.

[kura]

Wern't the Goodfellow family also behind the largest shareholder "Amalgamated Dairies" ????

Original Sanford family must have sold out many years ago.

[percy]

Wern't the Goodfellow family also behind the largest shareholder "Amalgamated Dairies" ????

Original Sanford family must have sold out many years ago.

Yes the Goodfellow family were Amalgamated Dairies.
I don't know the Sanford history.
Forest.The sp says you are on track.I have always seen SAN as a play on NZ currency.Then it is also a play on the oil price.
So I have never viewed it as a business ,which just happens to be a fishing company.The new CEO is trying to bring in good disciplines.Running the company as a good business.The example you have given THL is most probably the right way to start analysing SAN.I have recently brought RBD whose ROE is 33.3%.SAN's is 7.41%.So a lot of work to be done by SAN.Again currency and the price of oil will have very little affect on RBD,while they could/will have major affects on SAN.SAN are also selling factories and are in the middle of turn around,while RBD are full steam ahead,with very solid cashflows..SAN's turnaround could take a long time.The building in Matiapo Street [Christchurch]has been vacant for sometime.Factory closures cost a lot of money.Then there are possible questions about their fishing fleet. Too many variables for me to fully understand.However I look forward to you keeping us updated.

[forest]

That is how I also see it percy, San has a lot of work ahead of itself.

After a couple of talks with the new CEO it seems to me that this work has started.
I will observe there progress and do some updates.

[NZSilver]

I'm looking for solid profitable stocks with potential for some capital growth that are paying at least a 5% div yield. I would be interested in others thoughts on what they think would be suitable. Im prepared to take some reduced yield if growth will be greater and vice versa. I assume if we have more rate cuts yield stock will become more attractive and will therefore have some capital gain. Currently I have SCL, GNE, MEL, CEN, TIL, ATM, IQE, THL.

I have short listed RYM, SUM, HBL, AIA, (SRX on ASX), RBD
Also thought about property trusts but haven't had much experience in these
Also thought about purchasing more CEN, GNE or SCL
Feel SUM and RYM are a little pricey currently.
Have also considered AWK and NZR. But feel there are less risky businesses to be invested in.
Would be very interested in what people feel is the best power company?



Thanks in advance.

[kiora]

I'm looking for solid profitable stocks with potential for some capital growth that are paying at least a 5% div yield. I would be interested in others thoughts on what they think would be suitable. Im prepared to take some reduced yield if growth will be greater and vice versa. I assume if we have more rate cuts yield stock will become more attractive and will therefore have some capital gain. Currently I have SCL, GNE, MEL, CEN, TIL, ATM, IQE, THL.

I have short listed RYM, SUM, HBL, AIA, (SRX on ASX), RBD
Also thought about property trusts but haven't had much experience in these
Also thought about purchasing more CEN, GNE or SCL
Feel SUM and RYM are a little pricey currently.
Have also considered AWK and NZR. But feel there are less risky businesses to be invested in.
Would be very interested in what people feel is the best power company?



Thanks in advance.

IFT,CBL,SKL,FPH,GTK possibilities