Forecast

[Huskeez]

Just a wee something something I've been working on....

A random scan of the NZX, haven't performed it on here yet :)

Lets see how we go, trades are classed as wins if their RANGE gets hit during the day , regardless of if the price stays there or not. If the entry and exit are within the days range... i'm happy.

Still a lot of fine tweaking to do... but ohhh well

[Toasty]

I'm keen to see how this goes.

[CJ]

Just to confirm these are these predictions or you are testing a trading methodogy and you are posting here to keep you honest - I assume the latter.

So if you buy price is hit, you are classed as in and you exit as soon as the exit price is hit.

To help us keep you honest:

What is your trade size? You are chasing very small movement so if your trade size is small, minimum brokerage will impact. If your trade size is big, liquidity at your entry/exit prices may be an issue. Are you testing this for shares or cfds?

Do you also need a stop loss figure to determine the amount of loss of your losers - if you set to tight you may be stopped out even though it goes on to hit your sell price, but set it to lose and you may give away gains on other trades.

[Huskeez]

Just to confirm these are these predictions or you are testing a trading methodogy and you are posting here to keep you honest - I assume the latter.

So if you buy price is hit, you are classed as in and you exit as soon as the exit price is hit.

To help us keep you honest:

What is your trade size? You are chasing very small movement so if your trade size is small, minimum brokerage will impact. If your trade size is big, liquidity at your entry/exit prices may be an issue. Are you testing this for shares or cfds?

Do you also need a stop loss figure to determine the amount of loss of your losers - if you set to tight you may be stopped out even though it goes on to hit your sell price, but set it to lose and you may give away gains on other trades.

Hey CJ,

This will be a portion of my trading system which will feed a much bigger picture,

These stocks are purely random, but the entries and exits are based on "probability", meaning (for my system) the most likely outcome for the coming day using past data.

Seeing as the markets are random, (although they certainly have a tendency to trend beyond random but thats another story), one can only hope to increase the probability of their trades taken.

I have posted on here to keep me honest. The more often i perform the forecast , the more accurate it should get with time(in theory + with tweaking)

Aiming for a win% of 60+%, but good things take time.

Cheers

[Huskeez]

Just a wee something something I've been working on....

A random scan of the NZX, haven't performed it on here yet :)

Lets see how we go, trades are classed as wins if their RANGE gets hit during the day , regardless of if the price stays there or not. If the entry and exit are within the days range... i'm happy.

Still a lot of fine tweaking to do... but ohhh well


Here's todays results.
Hit my 60% mark which is around where I want to start.
Wins marked with "XXXXX" = End of day close for today was what I was given last night, not what I'm trying to do but still pretty cool.

Will post up tomorrows forecast later tonight.

[CJ]

Just wondering how you handle events like XRO today when it opened above your range? Do you still count it? .I'd assume no as his buy order would never be triggered.

More interestin would be if it openned between his buy and his sell price. Would he still trade hving already given away part of his expected gain.

[Huskeez]

Just wondering how you handle events like XRO today when it opened above your range? Do you still count it? The system looks interesting though. Would love to see some $ figures added, i.e. net profits from trades. I know hypothetically anyone could add in numbers but a running total would be cool if you have the time to add it....


All entries are based on the previous days close price, so anything that happens the next day is counted be it up or down.
The sole purpose of the system is to calculate market direction via P/A on a day to day basis.

The "Exit" side of this system simply indicates the highest probability %Gain for the next day using past data, it wouldn't necessarily be where one would exit the trade had they brought in at the close and held into the next day.

Take your example of XRO for instance. If I bought yesterday at the close (because the system states it has a high % chance of moving north the next day) and it gapped up like it did this morning, Stops would be readjusted, more profits would be locked in.

[Huskeez]

7-11-13 Forecast.

Staying with the same stocks as yesterday.

[Huskeez]

Still a bit confused, so back to the XRO example (but this time for tomorrows trades), if the forecast has only just been made, how would you have been able to buy at $37.3?
Also just to confirm this is not real money yet right??

Cheers.

Nope , no real money as of yet. And the forecast is based of the previous days close.

What hoping to achieve from all of this is some predictability in market direction, which as I stated earlier feeds my overall trading plan. This system is no where near complete, but I thought I would post it on here to keep an easy to follow diary, plus get input or criticism from others.

[Huskeez]

OK gotcha. Cheers and good luck with it!

Cheers turmeric , she's a long road yet !

[craic]

Far too complicated for my brain. Prefer to "know" one or two shares and work on them. Currently I work with just one share, TEL, because I know it well and it has good liquidity. It can range up and down severel cents in a day and I try to buy low and sell high. With the number I trade, I need a two cent differential to overcome fees and make a profit. Managed 11.3% profit before tax since May this year ($380 per week). Don't forget, if you trade you are required to pay tax.