Freelancer IPO - FLN

[Rego55]

Anyone get into the IPO for Freelancer yesterday? It started at $2.50, dropped down to about $1.40 almost immediately then hovered around $1.70 - $1.80 the rest of the afternoon. One or two hundred thousand shares got dumped just before closing and it dropped down to $1.60. I went into it on a whim at $1.74 - not a large amount but just wanted to see what happened. I get the feeling that it's massively over-valued for what the service can actually monetise. Not sure though.

[Stranger_Danger]

At $2.50, I make the P/S about 2,500.

But, who cares.

Disc : Bubble, bubble, toil and trouble.

[steve fleming]

Surprising how many reasonably conservative fund managers wanted to get stock in it

Caledonia Investments, Cadence Capital, LHC Capital, Wilson Asset Management, Milford Asset Management

"“They’re not the traditional things that Australian investors who look for a big dividend on cashflow from a mature business are used to,” said Caledonia chief investment officer, Will Vicars. “This is about reinvesting, growing and taking the space while it’s there."

“When you’ve got potential to add products, stop investing in the business and make profit, this company could be worth billions of dollars,” said Geoff Wilson, chairman of Wilson Asset Management. “This could be one of the greatest technology companies to list on the ASX.”

http://www.afr.com/p/technology/freelancer_reveals_chosen_ipo_investors_s8IEtNl5j1 J2gbVr2BHGfI

Its not my cup of tea, but if you step back and open your mind and have that big picture vision, you can see how some people are getting pretty excited.

[Entrep]

I develop websites and use freelancers for various tasks. Freelancer.com has the worst interface I've ever encountered and has been purchasing other websites in the same space. They acquired vworker.com (my favorite site) and unfortunately integrated it into their site. This is the only reason I use freelancer.com now (because some freelancers I like are there). Otherwise I'd be using elance more often, which has a far better reputation in terms of the quality of freelancers on it and is easier to use. You can tell Freelancer have really tried to extract every last bit of revenue from their website already (beyond expanding the business of course, I'm talking about "on website" enhancements), the upgrades and features they ask you to pay for are free on other sites and pretty standard! It's actually quite shocking how "cheesey" some of the stuff they ask you to pay for is. It's also almost social networking combined with finding a freelancer. Something which turns me off and is the exact opposite of something professional.

No, I don't like it at all.

I also read the PE was something like 300+, for the IPO. It must be over 1,000 now!? Wouldn't touch it.

[Snow Leopard]

...Personally, I think LinkedIn should do this type of stuff - but offer real jobs to real contractors.


The weirdest offer I have got so far via LinkedIn was in February this year.
Temporarily nomadic whilst waiting for work/study visas we wandered from country to country and I changed my location on my LinkedIn profile as we went.


Within 12 hours of putting up Taiwan I got messaged by Google China: "Could I attend an interview in Taipei in the next few days".


The weirdest non job offer is that most of my current profile views are female employees of a company called Temeneco Inc. I hate to think what is being said about me.

Presumably a portion of the millions of members find it works for them and they actually use it. Hopefully when Ginger_steps_ get to this thread he will share his experience with us.


Best Wishes
Paper Tiger

[Rego55]

Out of Freelancer now and can breathe a bit easier. There is a lot of activity in it and it's pretty volatile and as a result pretty stressful. Nice learner for me on that one with nothing lost.

[Harvey Specter]

The weirdest non job offer is that most of my current profile views are female employees of a company called Temeneco Inc. I hate to think what is being said about me.Do you have a good profile picture? Or a reputation that preceeds you?

[born2invest]

I went into it on a whim at $1.74 - not a large amount but just wanted to see what happened


This could be one of the greatest technology companies to list on the ASX



when fund managers start calling tech companies valuations like that "normal" I get very, very worried...


the PE was something like 300+, for the IPO. It must be over 1,000 now!? Wouldn't touch it.

Funny all these comments are coming out of the woodwork.

I've just recently read a book based around Warren Buffett and it looks deeply into the NASDAQ stock market crash in the early 2000's. The comments in the book people were saying a few months before the large market correction were exactly the same as what I'm seeing now in the Herald and on Share Trader.

[The Big Ease]

Anyone who thinks this is the 1990's tech bubble all over again doesn't quite understand the situation.
Freelancer is a globally significant asset with strategic value. What's more, there are highly profitable ecommerce companies. The growth metrics and monetisation pathways are very well understood.
It has escaped many that the business model of the tech boom (eyeballs -> advertising) has been validated. Just see facebook, google, mobile apps etc
Freelancer can become an advertising platform + an ecommerce portal for professional services.


It is a massive market place and as it is one of the biggest (Odesk is also pretty good/big), it is likely to get even bigger as it has a critical mass of buyers/service providers.

A few questions to ask if you want to get into this -
1. Are freelance transactions going to increase or decrease in the next 5-10 years? IMO up.
2. Can FLN capture a majority or the largest portion of these transactions? IMO yes.
3. Are there potential and likely buyers of the company? IMO yes, many. Starting with eBay.
4. Can you justify the difference between what it could be worth less the current SP over whatever period of time you think it will take? No.

I do think it could be bought for many billions in due course.
I'm not sure that's going to happen any time soon.

eBay is the dominant player in ecommerce marketplaces and is worth 67b USD.
FLN is a niche player in ecommerce, so it's probably better to compare it to a niche company like shoedazzle (+1b buyout).
I think FLN could eventually realise a value of between 1-3billion.

Not sure how long that will take, but it's not worth the risk to me.

Good luck folks.

p.s. I am using FLN to develop an app at the moment.
You do hear some horror stories, but if you know how to select a contractor and manage the relationship then you should be fine.
My first project is going quite nicely so far. Fingers crossed.

[Stranger_Danger]

Anyone who thinks this is the 1990's tech bubble all over again doesn't quite understand the situation.
.

Ding, ding ding! There it is!

Anyone who isn't in.....doesn't understand.

"You don't understand - BECAUSE THIS TIME IT IS DIFFERENT!"

[The Big Ease]

I am not in the stock either.

"This time" implies this is a time, like last time...of a bubble.
It is not a bubble because the business models have been established and proven.
FLN have stated they are investing in top line growth, which they are getting.

The tech bubble was pure hype and speculation about potential business models which had not been tested, proven and validated.
In most cases there wasn't any revenue on the horizon let alone profits.

I am not justifying the current pricing of FLN, but I can see the logic in how others are arriving at their conclusions.
I have stated it is too high for me.
But the business model itself is sound....unlike "last time".

[Harvey Specter]

It has escaped many that the business model of the tech boom (eyeballs -> advertising) has been validated. Just see facebook, google, mobile apps etc
Freelancer can become an advertising platform + an ecommerce portal for professional services.It may have been validated but it is a winner takes all market.

So if FLN can win 90% market share (like Google and Facebook have in their respective) niches you may be right, otherwise crash and burn.

And just because they have won, doesn't mean they wont lose. Remember MySpace, Alta Vista, etc. Sometimes first mover advantage isn't enough as someone else perfects you business model.

[The Big Ease]

there are no certainties in business.

[Jaa]

I have used Freelancer and similar sites (elance, odesk, getacoder, rentacode, Amazon Turk etc) for over 5 years both buying and selling. They are a dime a dozen and there is not much of a switching cost.

My current favourite is odesk but freelancer has worked well for me in the past.

Generally I run a small project via the site to test a freelancer then just work with them directly for future work. Thus skipping Freelancer's fees. As they charge both sides of the transaction the freelancers are more than happy to work directly.

While it is a good enough business that fills a real need it doesn't have much of a moat as there is no reason to reuse the site once you have a range of freelancers you have confidence in.

I looked at the IPO and couldn't believe the valuation and even less so now! Crazy times indeed.

[The Big Ease]

KW, I don't agree with the distinction you've made between 2.0 and previous companies.

2.0 simply refers to the transition the internet made from being static to interactive/dynamic web pages.
Facebook, LinkedIn are both very successful 2.0 companies.
There are many others out there like github that most people haven't heard of; highly profitable, growing, niche operators @ billions in valuation.

[Ginger_steps_]

Wow - that bombed out fast. Thanks to those who warned us about the risks. I do think however that this site has future potential - as more and more people come on to the net from remote areas and countries I think these sites will be the first ones they go to looking for work. Does anyone have a rough valuation for FLN??