Nuclear agreement with Iran, oil and global security

[Bobcat.]

Billy Boy and Pierre have persuaded me that this discussion needs its own thread rather than being buried inside NZO's:

Via Lignet, some top former government intelligence officials have identified 7 major impacts of the Iran agreement on global economies and security:


— Iran will benefit tremendously with this agreement, growing its global and regional influence

— Israel has become “handcuffed” by the Obama administration

— the Saudis will contribute to a new nuclear arms race in the region

— Oil prices will fall, for the short term

— Gold prices will increase (which they have today already)

— Syria’s Assad turns out to be the real winner.

http://www.lignet.com

Others' views?

[peat]

reposting from NZO thread as it is more relevant here

Digger the petro USD may be relevant but there are broad strategic reasons why this entente was sought by US.
1/ US plays a balance of power game in the rest of the world - seeking to limit any country achieving dominance in any one arena.
2/ US destroyed Iraq which is the only effective counter to Iran in the Middle East (no, Israel cannot dominate Iran)
3/ Therefore US must control Iran principally so as to keep open Straits of Hormuz. It has no will to go to war with them as it is stretched both financially and militarily.
4/ Therefore just as Nixon did with China it seeks an unholy alliance. Iran gets effective control of the ME as long as it doesn't piss off US.

Saudi's and Israel are hung out to dry but US doesn't care about them too much. Israel can defend itself. Saudis have nowhere to go and will cling to US no matter how badly it treats them. US needed to put them in their place anyway

See Ch 7 'The Next Decade' - George Friedman.

[digger]

Actually I have been wondering if the deal with Iran was some how linked to the problems in the South Chin Seas where China is claiming everything. Give a bit to Iran to get them on side to solve the petro dollars and free up space for the US military to handle the far bigger problem in the East. If this disputed Island does in fact float on hydrocarbons then the US would much prefer that Japan owned them, with of coarse a small commission to the US. Or if Japan owned all the oil then to keep it most of the oil income ends up back with the US as Japan is suddenly going to need some very modern weapons to keep the Island.

[Bobcat.]

Bringing the world's fourth largest oil producer back onto the market to trade freely will of course increase supply (before sanctions, Iran was selling 2.5m barrels per day, and since then only 1m/day) and will almost certainly lower oil prices. I bet OPEC are not at all pleased about it, especially Sunni-dominated countries (Saudi Arabia, etc).

Airlines and shipping groups should benefit from lower oil prices.

Oil producers and oil service firms will not.

This agreement also does nothing to dismantle Iran's nuclear programme. At best it limits Iran's ability to enrich uranium (to just 5%) and confines their technological advances to peaceful uses (including competing more effectively with the French, which I would say is why froglegs earlier screamed blue in the face about the deal). Obama should've insisted on Iran dismantling its heavy water plant but instead just insisted that they stop building it any further for 6 months. Go figure.

As for China's claims in the South China sea, it seems to have stepped up the ante on Taiwan as well. Don't be surprised if as China gets bolder on the world stage (economically and politically) it flexes muscle again over a territory whose independence it has NEVER acknowledged.

[Bobcat.]

Oh boy, the more analysts compare Iran's interpretation of this new agreement with that of John Kerry's the more ambiguous and troubling it gets:

http://www.newsmax.com/Newsfront/fred-fleitz-iran-nuclear-deal/2013/11/25/id/538573

What Obama has done in haste for short-term political purposes will likely have wide spread security implications. It's no wonder the Israelis, Saudi Arabians, many fellow Americans and others are aghast at what's just taken place. And apparently, Obama has been secretly negotiating with Iran for 6 months, without informing many officials that would normally be made privy to this (e.g. the chairman of the House Intelligence committee)

http://www.newsmax.com/Newsfront/Mike-Rogers-Iran-agreement-Congress/2013/11/25/id/538617

What shonky, narcissistic leadership...dangerous.

[it's small consolation but this has to be good for Gold]

BC

[bucko]

Cheaper oil, something we can all agree is a good thing for us! but there always seems to be this great desire by the current US govt to postpone solving problems.

Their debt ceiling and budget deficit, no solution has been put forward, they just seem to enjoy postponing it for the next govt to resolve, lets keep spending the same same way but just increase the amount we allow ourselves to borrow until someone comes up with a fix.

Same thing with Iran's nuclear ambitions, this deal only puts it on hold for 6 months? and they get all these sanctions eased? Have they obeyed any other deals/sanctions before...no they havent so whats to stop them carrying on and letting the US take 6 months to prove they have continued throughout the deal?

[vorno]

Time to grab the popcorn.


Cheaper oil, something we can all agree is a good thing for us! but there always seems to be this great desire by the current US govt to postpone solving problems.

Their debt ceiling and budget deficit, no solution has been put forward, they just seem to enjoy postponing it for the next govt to resolve, lets keep spending the same same way but just increase the amount we allow ourselves to borrow until someone comes up with a fix.

Same thing with Iran's nuclear ambitions, this deal only puts it on hold for 6 months? and they get all these sanctions eased? Have they obeyed any other deals/sanctions before...no they havent so whats to stop them carrying on and letting the US take 6 months to prove they have continued throughout the deal?

[skid]

Time to grab the popcorn.

And on top of that -We dont know what the US gov is doing(but apparently they know what we are doing (phone taps)
The American people dont know what the gov, is doing('' '' '' '')
And parts of the US gov. dont know what other parts are doing(secret talks)
And the things everyone knows(debt)-they dont want to know -so they postpone

Do you want a coke with that popcorn?

[skid]

Im not necessarily sure this has to be good for gold(cheaper oil)

[Bobcat.]

Im not necessarily sure this has to be good for gold(cheaper oil)

Iranians can now more freely purchase Gold, with Oil for Gold swaps.

What's probably also having a bearing on Gold is the recently announced investigation into London Big Boy banks fixing of the gold price.

I see that tonight (as London opens) Gold is lifting higher. If 1253 is breached and holds, watch the I'm-also-on-the-bandwagon, wise-in-our-own-opinion bearish analysts change their tune.

Gold bugs may be celebrating thanksgiving this week afterall...

BC

[vorno]

What about silver I wonder...heh probably nothing.

[Stu]

Im not necessarily sure this has to be good for gold(cheaper oil)

There are situations where the two don't move completely in sync.
In a few weeks Iran will start pumping the oil, but in a few months they will have the bombs, as possibly will the Saudis...