US Statistics and various lies?

[Bobcat.]

Let's begin with Money Supply:

1. Manipulating semantics (language is the house we live in):

Our thinking is manipluated via the US Government and Fed (a private banker consortium with Government mandated powers to control interest rates, etc) using various euphenisms like "Quantitative Easing" (everybody like it 'easy', yes?) and "accommodative" (it sounds so generous). What's actually happening is the Government buying back its own bonds - effectively printing money (i.e. robbing its citizens of the value of their currency). "Tapering" sounds so gentle and mild doesn't it but it actually means reducing slightly the amount of theft - how many people would thank a burglar for leaving the silver cutlery behind?

2. Manipulating statistics (which is arrogantly presented as 'science'):

In March 2006, the Federal Reserve Board of Governors ceased publication of the M3 monetary aggregate. They said M3 did not appear to convey any additional information about economic activity that was not already embodied in M2. Consequently, the Board judged that the costs of collecting the data and publishing M3 outweigh the benefits. That's timely, isn't it? Sort of like how they changed the basket of goods that measures inflation rates (e.g. no longer includes energy inflation). Sort of like how they changed the definition of unemployment, etc, etc.

Don't be duped. The American situation today is not unlike that of Germany in 1919. Compare the following charts:

http://nz.bing.com/images/search?q=gemany+gold+chart&id=72C42834948293070328FF6D603AB324A4C23EB1&FORM=IQFRBA

http://nz.bing.com/images/search?q=us+money+supply+chart&go=&qs=ds&form=QBIR

The one key contributor to the US dollar not nose diving is the fact that most oil is still traded using US-backed petro dollars (but that is changing). Look what happens when any country has the audacity to trade in Euros or some other currency:

Iraq: Saddam started to trade in Euros and then Bush (a Texan with very powerful oil tycoon buddies/sponsors) invaded under the guise of Saddam having WMD

China: China has for several months now been trading with Russia not in petro-dollars but in petro-yuan. Australia and Japan are also starting to do so, and they are not the only ones. 20 countries have currency swaps in place to avoid having to use US dollars for big trades. What can the US do about this? No much short of something very dirty - watch this space.

Iran: A mandatory non-negotiable requirement of the recent agreement to lift sanctions was that Iran trade its oil (there's lots of it) in petro-dollars. Obama, Kerry and others may see this as a major win, but really it is nothing more than pissing in the wind.

Once the Petroyuan is used more extensively and China's new Energy Exchange is in full swing then the US dollar will need to be propped up by more "QE" just to survive short term (it cannot survive long-term - the tide has turned and it will soon become a storm surge).

Best to buy into companies that have hedged well accordingly, and stay clear of (or short) companies relying on a strengthening USD.

http://www.financialsense.com/contributors/dan-collins/rise-petro-yuan

http://www.examiner.com/article/dollar-no-longer-primary-oil-currency-as-china-begins-to-sell-oil-using-yuan


BC

[born2invest]

If you spend more than 13 minutes analyzing economic and market forecasts, you've wasted 10 minutes

[cyclist]

If you spend more than 13 minutes analyzing economic and market forecasts, you've wasted 10 minutes

Yep, probably true for the short to medium term, but this stuff is still interesting and it is worth understanding the reality that lies under the bull.

A classis example was the US strong dollar policy in the early 2000's. The reasons that the fed and media stated for the dollar being so strong, were exactly the sort of reasons that should really result in it being much weaker. Sure enough, reality eventually won out.

[Whipmoney]

Let's begin with Money Supply:

1. Manipulating semantics (language is the house we live in):

Our thinking is manipluated via the US Government and Fed (a private banker consortium with Government mandated powers to control interest rates, etc) using various euphenisms like "Quantitative Easing" (everybody like it 'easy', yes?) and "accommodative" (it sounds so generous). What's actually happening is the Government buying back its own bonds - effectively printing money (i.e. robbing its citizens of the value of their currency). "Tapering" sounds so gentle and mild doesn't it but it actually means reducing slightly the amount of theft - how many people would thank a burglar for leaving the silver cutlery behind?

2. Manipulating statistics (which is arrogantly presented as 'science'):

In March 2006, the Federal Reserve Board of Governors ceased publication of the M3 monetary aggregate. They said M3 did not appear to convey any additional information about economic activity that was not already embodied in M2. Consequently, the Board judged that the costs of collecting the data and publishing M3 outweigh the benefits. That's timely, isn't it? Sort of like how they changed the basket of goods that measures inflation rates (e.g. no longer includes energy inflation). Sort of like how they changed the definition of unemployment, etc, etc.

Don't be duped. The American situation today is not unlike that of Germany in 1919. Compare the following charts:

http://nz.bing.com/images/search?q=gemany+gold+chart&id=72C42834948293070328FF6D603AB324A4C23EB1&FORM=IQFRBA

http://nz.bing.com/images/search?q=us+money+supply+chart&go=&qs=ds&form=QBIR

The one key contributor to the US dollar not nose diving is the fact that most oil is still traded using US-backed petro dollars (but that is changing). Look what happens when any country has the audacity to trade in Euros or some other currency:

Iraq: Saddam started to trade in Euros and then Bush (a Texan with very powerful oil tycoon buddies/sponsors) invaded under the guise of Saddam having WMD

China: China has for several months now been trading with Russia not in petro-dollars but in petro-yuan. Australia and Japan are also starting to do so, and they are not the only ones. 20 countries have currency swaps in place to avoid having to use US dollars for big trades. What can the US do about this? No much short of something very dirty - watch this space.

Iran: A mandatory non-negotiable requirement of the recent agreement to lift sanctions was that Iran trade its oil (there's lots of it) in petro-dollars. Obama, Kerry and others may see this as a major win, but really it is nothing more than pissing in the wind.

Once the Petroyuan is used more extensively and China's new Energy Exchange is in full swing then the US dollar will need to be propped up by more "QE" just to survive short term (it cannot survive long-term - the tide has turned and it will soon become a storm surge).

Best to buy into companies that have hedged well accordingly, and stay clear of (or short) companies relying on a strengthening USD.

http://www.financialsense.com/contributors/dan-collins/rise-petro-yuan

http://www.examiner.com/article/dollar-no-longer-primary-oil-currency-as-china-begins-to-sell-oil-using-yuan


BC

I don't really like to make a habit of attempting to debunk conspiracy theories as there is generally no point in arguing with the deluded, but I have to ask.. Why is this posted on the NZX thread?

PS: your understanding of the FED and QE appears on the surface of things extremely limited.

[Bobcat.]

I don't really like to make a habit of attempting to debunk conspiracy theories as there is generally no point in arguing with the deluded, but I have to ask.. Why is this posted on the NZX thread?

PS: your understanding of the FED and QE appears on the surface of things extremely limited.

What conspiracy? The USA is simply protecting its interests in the face of an ever increasing failing economy...but stats are being manipulated to avoid panic (Truth is the first casulty as authorities battle hard to avoid a nation's demise).

The post above is on the NZX thread because the financial health of the US economy impacts Equity markets.

Please explain your last comment - I know my limitations, do you know yours? If you have some useful knowledge to add (rather than making dismissive comments like you have here) then please do so.

BC

[Whipmoney]

What conspiracy? The USA is simply protecting its interests in the face of an ever increasing failing economy...but stats are being manipulated to avoid panic (Truth is the first casulty as authorities battle hard to avoid a nation's demise).

Fair enough, but that's not exactly news to anybody. The US (like most major world powers) will always do what's in its own interests, even if that is at the expense of others. The aim of the game is to preserve the balance of power in their favour, and whilst I often find their approach hypocritical I must concede that it does mostly benefit little old NZ.



The post above is on the NZX thread because the financial health of the US economy impacts Equity markets.

Probably more suitable to the US/Overseas markets thread. But it's here now so what can one do..



Please explain your last comment - I know my limitations, do you know yours? If you have some useful knowledge to add (rather than making dismissive comments like you have here) then please do so.

Well i'm not exactly sure what you mean when you label the FED a "private banker consortium" so maybe you should clarify your position here before I respond, but in terms of its equity holders then sure these essentially come from the private member banks, but the govenor is federally appointed so in essence is it quasi public-private with a mandate to act in the interest of the public.

With regard to your comment about QE equating to "printing money (i.e. robbing its citizens of the value of their currency)" this is a highly simplified explanation. Yes one can loosely equate to QE to turning on the 'metaphorical' printing presses given the current economic environment this is a markedly different scenario to the hyperinflation that took place in the Weimar Republic circa 1921-24. I seem to remember a bunch of hysterical republicans screaming blue murder back in 09/10 claiming that the QE programs would lead to mass hyper-inflation much like the example above. History has proven them wrong, and some economic commentators actually argue that the Fed didn't do enough.

Furthermore to state that QE robs citizens of the value of their currency is quite a big claim. One could just as easily claim (and the evidence does support this) that a failure to enact QE would have robbed the US citizens of their jobs/homes due to rampant deflation that would have more than likely resulted from a failure of America's central bank to intervene.

[Bobcat.]

Fair enough, but that's not exactly news to anybody. The US (like most major world powers) will always do what's in its own interests, even if that is at the expense of others. The aim of the game is to preserve the balance of power in their favour, and whilst I often find their approach hypocritical I must concede that it does mostly benefit little old NZ. .

It's the lies, statistics and more damn lies that fools the gullible (including much of the media). Whoever controls the semantics controls the debate. And redefining key economic metrics with dubious motive must be seen for what it is.



Well i'm not exactly sure what you mean when you label the FED a "private banker consortium" so maybe you should clarify your position here before I respond, but in terms of its equity holders then sure these essentially come from the private member banks, but the govenor is federally appointed so in essence is it quasi public-private with a mandate to act in the interest of the public.

Private member banks will have private member bank agenda and motives...seldom for the public good. Because it is private, it cannot be properly audited or regulated by Congress or the citizens – it is designed to be beyond their reach.

Check these out:

http://www.cnbc.com/id/101219425
http://www.wnd.com/2013/10/end-the-fed-2/


With regard to your comment about QE equating to "printing money (i.e. robbing its citizens of the value of their currency)" this is a highly simplified explanation. Yes one can loosely equate to QE to turning on the 'metaphorical' printing presses given the current economic environment this is a markedly different scenario to the hyperinflation that took place in the Weimar Republic circa 1921-24. I seem to remember a bunch of hysterical republicans screaming blue murder back in 09/10 claiming that the QE programs would lead to mass hyper-inflation much like the example above. History has proven them wrong, and some economic commentators actually argue that the Fed didn't do enough.
The jury's still out. Once inflation kicks in, how well it can be contained remains to be seen. We are in uncharted territory.


Furthermore to state that QE robs citizens of the value of their currency is quite a big claim. One could just as easily claim (and the evidence does support this) that a failure to enact QE would have robbed the US citizens of their jobs/homes due to rampant deflation that would have more than likely resulted from a failure of America's central bank to intervene.

Inflation and a falling dollar robs people of purchasing power more than deflation. Deflation is not good but for different reasons.

...a good debate. It's an interesting subject that, yes, has economic and sharetrading ramifications.

BC

[Schrodinger]

Beating a dead horse Bobcat, people like to live with their haeds in the sand....I will leave it at that

[JBmurc]

Beating a dead horse Bobcat, people like to live with their heads in the sand....I will leave it at that

Very true It's much easier to go with the masses not question the motives or actions in power...

Just take one issues I.e ----Q.E how many trillion have been created for the good of the people of the USA .... Where has most of those funds gone ?? Never in the history of the states has there been such a divide from the very rich billion dollar p.a hedge fund manager to the bum no job ,,no money ...

Fact is The money printed by the Federal Reserve does not end up the hands of the people, but goes directly to the banks, though whom it ends up in the stock market in order to inflate asset values. This pushes the Dow Jones Industrial Average and S&P higher, but does NOT increase hiring and above all consumer spending, which is one of the main drivers of the US economy.

Money print QE3 is equivalent to 20.4 million jobs paying $50,000 / year. Instead the money goes to Wall Street and the stock market.

Icing on the cake During 2012 the same bankers that helped cause the GFC recieved 160 billion in bonuses

[janner]

Whipmoney.

Get a copy of " The Creature From Jekyll Island.. 5th edition.

Will give you all the in's and outs.. the why's and the wherefores.. of the FED..

The US Government has no control over it..

[Major von Tempsky]

Bobcat you are a conspiracy ridden individual. No doubt you are still looking for who really killed JFK, that the Americans did not land on the moon, that Prince Philip had Princess Di killed & & &.
You need a remedial course in economics, I suggest the Money and Banking paper of Economics III if you can pass Economics I and Economics II.
M3 is not within the definition of money, it was simply published as a bit of occasionally interesting extra information.
Try also reading Keynesian economics - are you saying that NEVER is the right time to expand the money supply to counteract weak demand and avoid Depression?

[Aaron]

Maybe if we look at the facts. QE is without precedent and no one is denying $85billion is being created every month through the FED.
China did voice concerns with the last US Govt shutdown because it holds so much US Govt debt.
I haven't read much on the Petro-Yuan deal but I understand some countries are moving away from $US for international trade.
Everyone will be acting out of self interest. They are just facts not conspiracy theories.
The theories are when you start trying to predict the future. No-one really knows so it is all just theory.
Thanks for some interesting news Bobcat although I would agree it is on the wrong thread.

[iceman]

What conspiracy?

The post above is on the NZX thread because the financial health of the US economy impacts Equity markets.

BC

You have initiated an interesting discussion and debate Bobcat but like a few other posters, I think this is on the wrong thread. We seem to be getting an increasing number of unrelated threads like the recent Mandela thread on the NZX forum and I think the moderators need to step in and stop it.
On the NZX thread it states :Your place to discuss the Instruments listed on the NZX market

The Offmarket Discussion thread states : A forum to discuss any other news that could be of interest to investors and ShareTrader members. Please use this forum for political and general discussions that are not specific to instruments listed on the NZX, ASX and Forex markets.

For mer it is clear which forum these threads should be on. No offence meant Bobcat as the idea and discussion is interesting but I hope we don't continue to see unrelated threads clogging up the top of the NZX thread for much longer !

Like Forrest Gump, "that's all I have to say about that "

[Whipmoney]

Beating a dead horse Bobcat, people like to live with their haeds in the sand....I will leave it at that

Actually I don't. I like to challenge all viewpoints and ironically I used to have quite a different view of the FED and Banking until I realised quite a lot of mis-information is circulated around the internet on subjects like these (or any conspiracy theory really). If you look at any youtube video on say the FED and Fractional Reserve Banking you will see a whole of garbage posted in the comments section on fiat money, the illuminati, secret banking cabals etc and 99% of these promulgate, misinformation, clear distortions of the facts or outright lies.. quite a common theme really, which is pandemic on the internet.

[skid]

I think in a way both Bobcat and WM have points (though I must admit from my research BC has alot more valid points.
But ,whether it works or not(QE) the whole reason it had to be tried is because the US has backed itself into a very dangerous corner economically.
Something has got to give at some point.
The ole ''conspiracy theory''argument has got to be one of the biggest ''cop outs'' around these days.
Its for those who either cant be bothered to research,to scared of what they might find(that leads away from the status Quo),or simply dont understand enough to know they should be concerned.
Its a healthy debate --who really cares what thread its on..

[winner69]

I don't give a stuff what forums threads/topics topics appear on ......if anybody cares

[Schrodinger]

Actually I don't. I like to challenge all viewpoints and ironically I used to have quite a different view of the FED and Banking until I realised quite a lot of mis-information is circulated around the internet on subjects like these (or any conspiracy theory really). If you look at any youtube video on say the FED and Fractional Reserve Banking you will see a whole of garbage posted in the comments section on fiat money, the illuminati, secret banking cabals etc and 99% of these promulgate, misinformation, clear distortions of the facts or outright lies.. quite a common theme really, which is pandemic on the internet.

My point is any conspiracy is a "theory". The "official" 911 conspiracy is one with 12 Saudi hijackers. Whether this is now just a conspiracy or just a theory remains to be seen as there hasn't been an official trial.

What is more interesting is the other versions that don't have "official" endorsement. I won't bore you with which "conspiracy" I believe.

The point still stands that people prefer to be told what to think and love to not think about things that make them uncomfortable.

[Whipmoney]

The point still stands that people prefer to be told what to think and love to not think about things that make them uncomfortable.

I accept your point but which people are you talking about? All people, most people or only some people? To say all people is a sweeping generalisation. Maybe you are right and therefore it could be fair to say the a majority of the populace is relatively closed minded and therefore only a small minority are truly able to think critically.

However that being said I have (on more than a fair number of occasions) had debates with people who were the opposite. They believed that they were part of a small group of people who knew what was really going on in the world and considered the rest of the general population to be mere "sheeple". It's hard to say whether these individuals views are driven by a state of delusion, by paranoia or simply by a sense of wanting to fit into an elite community that perceive to be above that of the common citizen or sheeple. I often found their viewpoints funny as they are generally contradictory and are absent of any real facts.

[Schrodinger]

I accept your point but which people are you talking about? All people, most people or only some people? To say all people is a sweeping generalisation. Maybe you are right and therefore it could be fair to say the a majority of the populace is relatively closed minded and therefore only a small minority are truly able to think critically.

However that being said I have (on more than a fair number of occasions) had debates with people who were the opposite. They believed that they were part of a small group of people who knew what was really going on in the world and considered the rest of the general population to be mere "sheeple". It's hard to say whether these individuals views are driven by a state of delusion, by paranoia or simply by a sense of wanting to fit into an elite community that perceive to be above that of the common citizen or sheeple. I often found their viewpoints funny as they are generally contradictory and are absent of any real facts.

Good points.

I have done a bit of reading about the US in the past few years regarding diplomacy, strategy etc and it is quite surprising what pops up when you dig.

I personally prefer like you to form my own opinions.

[skid]

I,like you have done a bit of digging and some of the stuff aint "pretty"
When you hear it from those who actually were with the CIA or used to work for Monsanto,you start to realize that reality is very different than what we used to think-its very real.
Of course there will always be those ''really out there'' theories that some like to use to debunk everything.

Globalization can be very ugly,especially if you are a poor developing country.

[skid]

I,like you have done a bit of digging and some of the stuff aint "pretty"
When you hear it from those who actually were with the CIA or used to work for Monsanto,you start to realize that reality is very different than what we used to think-its very real.
Of course there will always be those ''really out there'' theories that some like to use to debunk everything.

Globalization can be very ugly,especially if you are a poor developing country.

[BIRMANBOY]

W69...we all care deeply that you are content....truly...In the xmas spirit however, I think you should give me some stuff.....preferably some folding stuff so that I don't have to read bunker theorists posts...I cant get to sleep at night and have taken to saving newspapers for the dunny at the bottom of the garden.
I don't give a stuff what forums threads/topics topics appear on ......if anybody cares

[JBmurc]

My point is any conspiracy is a "theory". The "official" 911 conspiracy is one with 12 Saudi hijackers. Whether this is now just a conspiracy or just a theory remains to be seen as there hasn't been an official trial.

What is more interesting is the other versions that don't have "official" endorsement. I won't bore you with which "conspiracy" I believe.

The point still stands that people prefer to be told what to think and love to not think about things that make them uncomfortable.

Yes many conspiracy theory's end up being the truth ....the Iran Contra affair >>>the earth is round...smoking is bad for you... etc ....many thousands of people have been locked up or kill for standing up for a theory even with the facts or proven science ....guess this is where the Fear to Question comes into play for many much easier to go with the flow...don't Question ...listen to the media/teachers/those in power they are right...

[winner69]

Good points.

I have done a bit of reading about the US in the past few years regarding diplomacy, strategy etc and it is quite surprising what pops up when you dig.

I personally prefer like you to form my own opinions.

John Perkins has written a couple of books you might enjoy or find revealing

Confessions of an Economic Hitman is one and Hoodwinked is another

Have read Confessions several times

[skid]

The economic hit men was actually covered on the interview with the ex CIA guy on how to plunder the poor countries with resources.
Makes complete sense in an evil sort of way.
Most Americans would never dream it was them (well, their corporate controlled Gov.)that were doing the plundering(sometimes at the expense of their 19yr old sons--If it gets to the third step[military action])

Makes a bit of a mockery of all those flags in front of middle America houses

[Schrodinger]

Look up the Iran revolution and the linkages to big Oil.

CIA and Oil work hand in hand.

[skid]

Fortunately that sort of thing(bribes,Jackals,assassinations) works best on poor,developing countries,but they still have alot in their arsenal for larger targets--One of the reasons the PTT(US free trade agreement )would be a disaster IMO
I personally think the ''moneyed up'' from both China and the US are eying this nice little country for retirement(not a bad idea to own as much of it as possible as well)

Brings up the question "Is NZ nice enough to protect,or is it just a giant ATM machine for the ''Haves"

[Bobcat.]

Bobcat you are a conspiracy ridden individual. No doubt you are still looking for who really killed JFK, that the Americans did not land on the moon, that Prince Philip had Princess Di killed & & &.
You need a remedial course in economics, I suggest the Money and Banking paper of Economics III if you can pass Economics I and Economics II.
M3 is not within the definition of money, it was simply published as a bit of occasionally interesting extra information.
Try also reading Keynesian economics - are you saying that NEVER is the right time to expand the money supply to counteract weak demand and avoid Depression?

I'm not one to jump in blindly with conspiracy theorists, Major von T, but I do my research and cannot ignore what I see as self-serving power plays by people too easily corrupted by power.

I'm also a trained economist with a degree majoring in Macroeconomics, very familiar with Keynesian and Milton Friedman flavours of economics. How qualified are you in this field?

BC

BTW, I started this thread before noticing there is a forum called "Off Market Discussions" where it probably best belongs...but I have been unable to work out how to move it now that it's been created. Does anyone know?

[winner69]

Bobcat .... seeing you an economist and worst of all obviously have a Keynesian bent we will forgive you for putting this interesting topic on the forum

Leave it here .... those interested know where to find it now .... and it is relevant to investing on the NZX anyway

Rules are made to be broken

[winner69]

Palast always comes up with the real story. His latest investigation

http://www.palastinvestigativefund.org/?id=68