AUDNZD - Five Year Lows

[peat]

a month after my lost post and we almost hit 1.09 AUD/NZD a further 300 pips. 1.0892 to be precise.
I am now slowly beginning to scale out. but I'm in no hurry as it could well just keep going up and up
another few weeks and scaled out completely now. we did hit 1.10 very briefly before going back to 1.08 . since that high on the 17th we've had a small bearish gartley so am looking for a steeper correction now but not shorting. Will wait for a buy again maybe at the 1.06 level if the right reversal pattern shows.

[peat]

Will wait for a buy again maybe at the 1.06 level if the right reversal pattern shows.
another few weeks and we did go down to touch the high 1.06's although nothing concrete to induce a long yet.

[winner69]

?????



Here comes the tumble into the 80s fellas



8724

What happened karlos - seems to be back about 96 again

Peat - you must be loving these spikes and tumbles of the NZD:AUD and making heaps

[peat]

Yes I made a post in this thread yesterday saying that I was starting to enter AUD/NZD long again at 1.05 , (after having exited at 1.09 ish ) but somehow it got lost.
There is another bullish gartley as shown below but my long position is small , tentative and shall I say exploratory at this point as there is no evidence of a turn upwards at the 78% retracement level.
8880
It is early days yet and I havent jumped but looking for a signal. Talks of parity always get me drooling lol

[peat]

no evidence
anti-evidence.

[peat]

maybe now we have some evidence
8886
buyon dips stop 1.390 could be the go for risk averse strategy
I'll probably consider it a soft stop , ie daily close below....

[JBmurc]

Planning on buying much more AUD at these levels (Into my ANZ AUD investing account) ...

[karlos68]

What happened karlos - seems to be back about 96 again

Simple explanation winner..."timing is the hard part"..... the drop is coming, just watch and see, Descending Triangle.

8904



Good move (IMO) JBmurc on buying Aussie now.

[JBmurc]

Simple explanation winner..."timing is the hard part"..... the drop is coming, just watch and see, Descending Triangle.

8904



Good move (IMO) JBmurc on buying Aussie now.

Yes turned 20k NZD into $18916 AUD (thanks to ASB PVT banking) all will have another 90k NZD on friday >>>> not sure if I'll move the lot into AUD but I agree with your outlook karlos sub 90's coming IMHO

[Hoop]

Yes turned 20k NZD into $18916 AUD (thanks to ASB PVT banking) all will have another 90k NZD on friday >>>> not sure if I'll move the lot into AUD but I agree with your outlook karlos sub 90's coming IMHO

Is the coming Election swaying you guys?

[karlos68]

Is the coming Election swaying you guys?

Nope.

I don't vote.......learned as a kid whoever comes to power it's just the same ole same ole yadda yadda yadda..........

Reason being we are a First World Country, keep all in check, follow the leader, the masses are easily influenced by those in power, and yadda yadda yadda....

For myself Hoop, one quick glance at a chart is explanatory for myself..enjoy your weekend...(V8) Supercars are on :t_up:

[JBmurc]

Is the coming Election swaying you guys?

not really but you know if Labour/Green poll well it would add downward pressure on the NZD >>

[JBmurc]

hoping the NZD can hold 95c+(till I convert my 80k NZD) looking very toppy >>>>

[Hoop]

Is the coming Election swaying you guys? ...The reason I ask is why do you think break out to the downside is going to happen with in the next month or two...Karlos's long term chart is exactly that...long term...The descending triangle is valid from the mid 2014 starting point and the apex is projected out to the year 2022.....Most of the breakouts occur 2/3 to 3/4 along the triangle towards the apex which suggests chances are the downward breakout would occur during the years 2019 and 2020.....A long time between drinks ..eh?

The kicker is.. after waiting until the year 2020, when it finally happens it may go the other way and break out to the top side (36% chance [Bulkowski])......

.....just saying :cool:

Edit: Correction...valid from March 2015 not Mid 2014

[karlos68]

I believe NZ/AUS has some cohesion with PEN and Spot Price U308 charts Hoop.

Both PEN and U308 are narrowing to the breakout point of their Descending Wedges, could still be some time dragging on as you point out, thou it is drawing close to the point of anytime now ....just saying my belief.

[Hoop]

I believe NZ/AUS has some cohesion with PEN and Spot Price U308 charts Hoop.

Both PEN and U308 are narrowing to the breakout point of their Descending Wedges, could still be some time dragging on as you point out, thou it is drawing close to the point of anytime now ....just saying my belief.


Yep ...fair enough...I often use other related and sometimes unrelated variables that correlate together with the subject I'm investigating e.g Copper v DOW used to be leading indicator out of a bear cycle.
cheers
Hoop

[Hoop]

not really but you know if Labour/Green poll well it would add downward pressure on the NZD >>


Yeah...the mass sentiment could do this (short term effect?)

[winner69]

Yeah...the mass sentiment could do this (short term effect?)

Bit of comment around about politics and investing - general conclusion from seasoned investors is watch fundamentals, not politics.

Politics just create noise but fundamentals win out in the end

Spose if you are a gambler/trader/punter this noise is good .....but if an investor don't listen to it.

[JBmurc]

Got much bigger lot of AUD today @ .9430

be interesting how the outcome of the yachting affects the cross rate >>>

[peat]

for the record I am still holding AUD/NZD longs. It got close but my stop was only soft and there was no daily close below. Was looking a lot better until the RBA shot their mouth off yesterday. ...... I am increasingly dubious that this will work as time passes without increasing confirmation but these have been large patterns taking over a year and a half so the playing out can also take a similar timeframe. Good point is that anything under 1.04 has not been sustained

[peat]

and we are off......!
8983

[peat]

look at this beauty, tells a story

8993

[peat]

a complete monologue in this thread but too bad. there's only one thing madder than talking to yourself , and that's listening.

still in long, now 1.0780 , may take some of the table soon but not hurry when I'm having this much fun.

8996

[kiora]

a complete monologue in this thread but too bad. there's only one thing madder than talking to yourself , and that's listening.

still in long, now 1.0780 , may take some of the table soon but not hurry when I'm having this much fun.

8996

I,m listening Peat.I listen to anyone who's having fun :)

[JBmurc]

nice >>> glad I shifted the funds when I did

[peat]

another few weeks later and still holding several positions (blue arrows)
9077
about to take one off the table now at 1.0850

[peat]

still holding longs @ 1.1136

[Joshuatree]

Looking forward to bringing some dosh back from some of my Aus stocks soon and maybe shunting a few stocks listed on both exchanges over, e.g. TME.

[Entrep]

Looking forward to bringing some dosh back from some of my Aus stocks soon and maybe shunting a few stocks listed on both exchanges over, e.g. TME.

Me too, I started this thread... It's been a long wait :)

[peat]

on a tear up today (AUD/NZD) as aussie employment figures surprise and the likelihood of winston stepping to the left.

[JBmurc]

NZD should crash now with the Three-headed BEAST in control .....yeekss

[JBmurc]

Going long AUD/NZD looking very close to major double bottom ....

[winner69]

I reckon AUD:NZD parity some time in 20198

[777]

I reckon AUD:NZD parity some time in 20198

Will it makes any difference to you then. You will have been dead for over 18000 years.

[winner69]

Will it makes any difference to you then. You will have been dead for over 18000 years.

Cool eh ......

[Hoop]

AUD:NZD parity looking likely?? O.9877 atm :D:t_up::cool:
Bad news:..high chance the government will ban the parity party:p:scared::(:(

[peat]

it always bounces off parity.
now heading back to 1.1 at which point I will bring some back.

[FTG]

Monthly chart certainly starting to look interesting. That 1.1 target looks reasonably imminent (within weeks?). Perhaps the Aussie election will provide the necessary impetus? Moreover, RBA has held off for now, but when they start to move (surely inevitable?) some serious catching up will need to occur.

If & once that level is cleared, then 1.13 will be the the next stop, in quick order IMO.

Intriguing how over the last 25+ years parity has only been kissed 3 times (all in just the last 7 years). Remember too that just 11 years ago (post GFC) a double top at 1.36 !

[winner69]

I must be looking at different charts than you guys

[FTG]

I must be looking at different charts than you guys

LOL....Maybe we are operating in a parallel world?

or maybe you are looking at the 'NZDAUD' chart (rather than AUDNZD)?:D

[Joshuatree]

Buys NZ$1.0666 atm.(ANZ) Aus election slowing it down or ORR a spanner in the works int rate wise?

[winner69]

LOL....Maybe we are operating in a parallel world?

or maybe you are looking at the 'NZDAUD' chart (rather than AUDNZD)?

Yep charts are different eh

One has a line heading down away from 1.00 .... and the other has a line up away from a $1.00

Definitely not parallel

[Joshuatree]

Buys NZ$1.0666 atm.(ANZ) Aus election slowing it down or ORR a spanner in the works int rate wise?

Predictions $A heading to US 80c.Strong energy and commodity prices underpinning.

[Joshuatree]

I'm getting $A buys $NZ 1.07 to $1.09 ATM,what you guys getting?

[FTG]

I'm getting $A buys $NZ 1.07 to $1.09 ATM,what you guys getting?

Wholesale (so not your 'retail' pricing) approx 1.092. NZ time stamp 18.09hrs

[Joshuatree]

Thanks,ive just looked at rbnz $1.08495 today

[peat]

13722

a picture tells a thousand words but not 10 characters according to ShareTrader forum rules.

[Joshuatree]

Geez ,who gives you those rates, peat?

[peat]

Geez ,who gives you those rates, peat?
its just trading rates from CMC

[Joshuatree]

$1.0936 (Rbnz)today ,nearly there

[winner69]

Monthly chart certainly starting to look interesting. That 1.1 target looks reasonably imminent !

With you guys now ….thought that “1.1” you was talking about was parity ……stupid me it was 1.10

[peat]

brought back a chunk from Oz today.... it may go higher and thats cool, but often around this level it finds a ceiling and one day might go back to parity in which case I'll send it back again :)

[JBmurc]

brought back a chunk from Oz today.... it may go higher and thats cool, but often around this level it finds a ceiling and one day might go back to parity in which case I'll send it back again :)

Not for long time IMHO ..Aussie economy will out perform NZ's ...I wouldn't be surprised to see AUD/NZD 1.15+ before the years out

[clearasmud]

Not for long time IMHO ..Aussie economy will out perform NZ's ...I wouldn't be surprised to see AUD/NZD 1.15+ before the years out

NZD touched $1.13.
Thanks woke govt.

[JBmurc]

Yes good to hear .... will need to bring a good chunk of change home for TAX end of the month.. ...1.15+ coming sooner that later IMHO

[Walter]

NZD touched $1.13.
Thanks woke govt.
Are you saying the new Labour Government is Australia is responsible for the $NZD dropping to the sort of levels it was under National?

[peat]

NZD touched $1.13.
Thanks woke govt.

not on my charts , highest was 1.1226 and that was an intraday spike , highest close recently 1.1161
14077

[clearasmud]

not on my charts , highest was 1.1226 and that was an intraday spike , highest close recently 1.1161
14077

You may be right.
That was the cross rate showing on Direct Broking. I don't know why they got it wrong unless it was a flash spike?

[FTG]

You may be right.
That was the cross rate showing on Direct Broking. I don't know why they got it wrong unless it was a flash spike?

Believe it or not...DB (Jarden) likes to make some money.:ohmy:
Quoted rates (both ways) have a nice (for them!) fat margin added.

[clearasmud]

Believe it or not...DB (Jarden) likes to make some money.:ohmy:
Quoted rates (both ways) have a nice (for them!) fat margin added.

It was the cross rate.

[FTG]

It was the cross rate.

Yes indeed. 'Their' quoted cross rate.:)

[JBmurc]

AUD/NZD hit 1.1445... has pulled back a touch but still a very impressive drop in the NZD Vs AUD ... I don't see this turning around anytime soon still think 1.15 will be crossed before the years out

[JBmurc]

looking like our RBNZ pushing rates up at insane levels Vs Aus much slower move north along with higher inflation numbers in NZ seems to be pushing up NZD value Vs AUD/NZD at present 1.07692 ....

[peat]

Its been a savage retracement since the 1.13 and I had been selling into that
14364
I'm thinking that once this momentum downwards wanes, there will be support around 1.05 for at least a while. before we head back to approaching parity. but certainly no hurry to put anything back to AUD yet.
14365

[JBmurc]

Its been a savage retracement since the 1.13 and I had been selling into that
14364
I'm thinking that once this momentum downwards wanes, there will be support around 1.05 for at least a while. before we head back to approaching parity. but certainly no hurry to put anything back to AUD yet.
14365


Parity AUD/NZD is going hurt all NZ to Aus exporters yet another kick to the guts for many in the sector reeling under mass inflation in costs operating in this country that one major advantage ... I worked for couple decades in a seasonal fishing operation that exported 90% of the catch to Aussie and we would see earnings movements each year in pricing directly to AUD/NZD ... from what I'm hearing NZ fisherman are very much following NZ Mining and O&G businesses ...

Upside will be great for the Major Aus Businesses that operate here as their AUD Profits will increases on higher NZD ... I'd like to know exactly how much of NZ spending heads Aussie Companies ..would be HUGE .... when you think all the major Banking , media ,foodstuffs,NZ sugar ,Glenbrook steel, Tiwai etc ...

Smart Kiwis will be making the most of the strong NZD on the back of high rates to get investment funds out and into AUD IMHO

[clearasmud]

Parity AUD/NZD is going hurt all NZ to Aus exporters yet another kick to the guts for many in the sector reeling under mass inflation in costs operating in this country that one major advantage ... I worked for couple decades in a seasonal fishing operation that exported 90% of the catch to Aussie and we would see earnings movements each year in pricing directly to AUD/NZD ... from what I'm hearing NZ fisherman are very much following NZ Mining and O&G businesses ...

Upside will be great for the Major Aus Businesses that operate here as their AUD Profits will increases on higher NZD ... I'd like to know exactly how much of NZ spending heads Aussie Companies ..would be HUGE .... when you think all the major Banking , media ,foodstuffs,NZ sugar ,Glenbrook steel, Tiwai etc ...

Smart Kiwis will be making the most of the strong NZD on the back of high rates to get investment funds out and into AUD IMHO

Where do you get the best rates JD and does Directbroking negotiate on larger amounts?

[peat]

Where do you get the best rates JD and does Directbroking negotiate on larger amounts?
I know the question wasnt directed at me so sorry for butting in but hey its a public forum ;+)

I use OFX for real money. (as opposed to trading on a plaform for instance) Their rates improve with larger amounts.

[JBmurc]

Where do you get the best rates JD and does Directbroking negotiate on larger amounts?

I've got a pretty good deal with ASB private bankers in AKD .. they give me pretty good shading for a small timer ... I did check with some of these FX dealers in Aus ..but was no better deal ..and I've had good dealings with the ASB guys when it comes to paying for AUD.. CR options exercising etc all very straight forward ...

I'd certainly shop round ....I once priced up westpac who I lend off for the markets .. and for the same amount I was just over $700 worse off converting AUD to NZD with them Vs ASB P.B..... can't recall the exact amount think it was like 70-80k AUD

[peat]

I'm thinking that once this momentum downwards wanes, there will be support around 1.05 for at least a while.

low was 1.047 and we went back to almost 1.1 (highest on my chart was 1.096 ) and we're having a pullback on that retracement. we may wiggle around here or even go to 1.12 ish before we go lower again so no further transactions unless we go to 1.12 then I will bring some more back to NZ.

[clearasmud]

If Orr doesn't raise at least half a percent this week it's a signal for further NZD weakness.

[JBmurc]

If Orr doesn't raise at least half a percent this week it's a signal for further NZD weakness.

Good hope we get dominated by the AUD ...1.15-1.20 will great timing to convert some of my AUD to NZD to pay the TAX man

[JBmurc]

Interesting just looking over the monthly chart for the AUD/NZD ..NOV pretty much been a down month for the AUD vs NZD since 2015 ..

Am short AUD/NZD

[Valuegrowth]

I made a mistake by going long on AUD/USD using an ETF. Still I am holding it. Thinkng about selling it. Recently, I raised cash by selling few stocks after studying their business model, cash flow and debt. Sometimes we get caught to both growth and value trap.


Interesting just looking over the monthly chart for the AUD/NZD ..NOV pretty much been a down month for the AUD vs NZD since 2015 ..

Am short AUD/NZD

[winner69]

Valuegrowth commented ‘Sometimes we get caught to both growth and value trap.’

Sounds painful

[Valuegrowth]

I am rebalancing.