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Entrep
17-12-2013, 06:46 AM
After living (and saving) in Oz for several years I've just moved back to NZ to discover that the $AUD it at a FIVE YEAR low against the $NZD. Talk about timing... geez.

I really don't know what to do. I can either bite the bullet and convert now, wait it out for a year or so, or something else? The one good thing is that apart from money for a car and initial setup, I don't need the the bulk of the funds for the foreseeable future.

What would you do? Could we be going to parity?

Cheers

G on
17-12-2013, 08:20 AM
I feel for you!When I returned to NZ from Aus in "93, to eventually set up my own business, I was fortunate to have the highest x-rate, I think, up to now. NZ was fighting its way out of low economic growth from the 87 crash. Aus recovered a bit quicker hence the strong exchange rate. Possibly the shoe is on the other foot this time around.
History would indicate this situation will not last but for how long will Aus economy take to kick off? Or how long before NZ shoots itself in the foot? Labour Govt in power?
If you have enough money here how long are you prepared to wait?
If you waited and it went to parity would that stop you doing something here? Buying property, increase business expansion? This, to me, is the most important question.
If you brought your money over and invested it could you make more than leaving it in Aus?
You can always drip feed small amounts to cover increases but not take a major hit on the conversion rate. Do you intend to go to Aus for holidays where some money left there would make it easier.?
I am sure there will be lots of people to enlighten you on this site and good luck with adapting back to NZ life.

peat
17-12-2013, 11:35 AM
Invest it in Australia. Bigger market, more options

mrjeems
17-12-2013, 04:04 PM
I noticed we're in a very similar pattern to what happened in 2000. Not sure if history repeats, but could be something to check out?
(sharp drop of AUS followed by long bullish channel)

So IF technical analysis is anything to go by and the patterns are similar - you'd be holding for a long time to get back to the values it was in 2011. Maybe follow Peats advice and invest in Aus?

5201

Entrep
16-01-2014, 01:00 PM
Thank you for the all the advice. I am leaving everything in Australia for now... down into the 1.05's now... I haven't converted yet so it's just on paper, but still this is killing me! Especially since I am back in NZ for good.

blueswan
16-01-2014, 01:03 PM
Tell me about it, i get paid in AUD working for Aussie firm and not practically taking a large pay cut due to exchange rate which might go to 98 high.

JBmurc
16-01-2014, 01:59 PM
Tell me about it, i get paid in AUD working for Aussie firm and not practically taking a large pay cut due to exchange rate which might go to 98 high.

Tell me about it #2-- company I work for exports mostly to Aus got a 10% cut in pay likely to have another one soon ...damn National Gov /Milk solids doing to well ...attracting overseas $$$ ....yes great time to invest NZD into the ASX...

blueswan
16-01-2014, 02:56 PM
If you trade ASX shares and you had a 20% profit YOY, it will just be eaten up by this depreciation of AUD to NZD once you convert back to Kiwi. It made sense to hedge your currency exposure way back. Ah hind sight???

skid
16-01-2014, 04:27 PM
Stand back and ask yourself if it is more likely this strong $Kiwi (against $A) will continue or fluctuate back.
The $K pros- maybe interest rate increase--economy seems to be growing ATM
The cons-when ever something scarey happens(like Greece or Cyprus) It knocks the $Kiwi worse than other currencies as its considered more risky

Im banking that the kiwi$ will drop on some bad economic news at some stage,but forex is hard to predict

Bobcat.
16-01-2014, 05:17 PM
Auckland house market, Christchurch rebuild and still strong dairy exports (particularly to China) are all pointing to economic strengthening here in NZ and an interest rate hike sooner than Australia's (which is more likely to be cut further before it rises). Parity is not far off IMO.

Today's Australian Employment Change statistic of negative 22.6k against an expected increase of 7.5k does not bode well for the Aussie economy.

NZ CPI figure on 21 Jan and interest rate decision on 30 Jan will also be a factor.

BC

Corporate
17-01-2014, 01:54 AM
Yes this is very painful. I've had most if not all of my profits eaten up by the weakening AUD. Not happy!

blueswan
17-01-2014, 11:41 AM
I agree SKID that our economy is quite small that one bad news can knock Kiwi hard just like the mad cow scare a few years back that knock 100 pts off just like that. But based on outlook soft commodities looks rosier than hard commodities so NZ will have an upward bias with Dairy prices going up. Although another Fonterra scare can just derail everything. But looking at the chart we might see NZDAUD scale new highs in the near term.


Stand back and ask yourself if it is more likely this strong $Kiwi (against $A) will continue or fluctuate back.
The $K pros- maybe interest rate increase--economy seems to be growing ATM
The cons-when ever something scarey happens(like Greece or Cyprus) It knocks the $Kiwi worse than other currencies as its considered more risky

Im banking that the kiwi$ will drop on some bad economic news at some stage,but forex is hard to predict

Joshuatree
26-03-2014, 08:46 PM
[QUOTE= But based on outlook soft commodities looks rosier than hard commodities so NZ will have an upward bias with Dairy prices going up. Although another Fonterra scare can just derail everything. But looking at the chart we might see NZDAUD scale new highs in the near term.[/QUOTE]

I read somewhere recently that globally dairy production is recovering (was bad weather etc) and this will put a downwards pressure on Dairy prices so if so we may be near a top right now.

Corporate
27-03-2014, 04:07 AM
I read somewhere recently that globally dairy production is recovering (was bad weather etc) and this will put a downwards pressure on Dairy prices so if so we may be near a top right now.

JT - I hope so ! I don't like seeing investment gains eroded by forex :(

peat
27-03-2014, 08:46 PM
5628
Um yeh, I been building up shorts on this cross
As per the purple down arrows

Moosie
The article you posted a link to doesnt reference the aud/NZD but the aud/usd

peat
27-03-2014, 09:05 PM
The cross that is the title of this thread aud/nzd

peat
27-03-2014, 09:15 PM
When RSI < 30

peat
27-03-2014, 09:25 PM
Yes, 70,30,14
sorry, cropped it out of the pic

peat
01-04-2014, 06:15 PM
Moderately acceptable bearish gartley on the AUD/NZD cross now

peat
01-04-2014, 09:39 PM
Document on the gartley


https://onedrive.live.com/redir?resid=9BB05532C20E0B17!147&authkey=!ACtn9nOI6_ECpaA&ithint=file%2c.pdf (https://onedrive.live.com/redir?resid=9BB05532C20E0B17!147&authkey=!ACtn9nOI6_ECpaA&ithint=file%2c.pdf)

Bobcat.
02-04-2014, 09:59 AM
Yes, many pundits were expecting Australia's Reserve Bank to lower its interest rate yesterday. I did too, given the boost it would bring to resource company tax revenues that the Government would enjoy from it, but it didn't happen (due to housing market pressure?). There will be a few days of further climb in the AUS/USD in my opinion before the Treasury and others start to talk it down...I'm guessing from around 0.935.

Edit: Building approvals have just been announced for Australia - down 5% (last time up 7%).

BC

Pumice
02-04-2014, 11:28 PM
Yes, many pundits were expecting Australia's Reserve Bank to lower its interest rate yesterday. I did too, given the boost it would bring to resource company tax revenues that the Government would enjoy from it, but it didn't happen (due to housing market pressure?). There will be a few days of further climb in the AUS/USD in my opinion before the Treasury and others start to talk it down...I'm guessing from around 0.935.

Edit: Building approvals have just been announced for Australia - down 5% (last time up 7%).

BC


I read on Bloomburg that 33 out of 33 economist were picking the RBA to hold rates?
On another note:
AUD/NZD currently going crazy. 1.0650 to just under 1.0800
Whats the cause of this NZD weakness?

blueswan
03-04-2014, 04:20 PM
With drought everywhere even in the US I think this soft dairy prices will be temporary and NZDAUD will try to break the resistance at 95 level. Correction should hit sub 92 before I start buying again.

Joshuatree
04-04-2014, 11:05 AM
You can buy re $1.07526 $ NZ atm Entrep what a bonus if you're coming back for a period/Good. Noone pick the tops and bottoms of things accurately. Id average in i.e. bring the same amount over at the same intervals e.g. $20,000 every 2 weeks.. Seems no matter what happens you're in a winning position Doing nothing could be the riskiest strat.

blueswan
04-04-2014, 01:22 PM
The chart formation here is very similar to Sept of last year when it did a double top at 0.89 and then down to low 0.86 then rally towrds 0.92. I still believe uptrend still intact and we are just in teh corrective phase to 0.92.

peat
08-04-2014, 11:42 AM
I await your post/PM with bated breath!

who?
me?

I'm continuing to add shorts in Aud/NZD.
Trade is at this point going wrong but I will likely hold as per prev statement ie close when RSI < 30 and continue to sell when >70. Simple strategy , pays off in most cases but not all. Cant win em all.
The gartley did perform with price returning to 32% retracement from the 78% line but didnt extend further as would have been hoped for. Maybe this next time reversal will continue

skid
11-04-2014, 06:47 AM
Patiently waiting for the Kiwi to run out of steam against my US$--At this stage I would imagine it may take an event that causes investors to run for a safe haven currency --Kiwi has really been chugging along as of late--Seems overvalued but your never know with these things.

In terms of rate hikes,one would have to question if its better to penalize your overseas exporters(the life blood of the economy) to keep housing prices in check.

skid
12-04-2014, 01:16 PM
But should preventing speculation(of housing)come up trumps over real business?(exporters)

Just another Quandary in the world of the economy

Valuegrowth
13-04-2014, 12:21 PM
I believe finally it is time to avoid NZD. It will go down against AUD sooner than later. I also believe NZD will have one of the biggest corrections during next 18 months. Just like stock and commodity market we could see long awaited shift in the currency cycle in the near future. Overvalued NZD could tumble against USD as well. NZD is number one over valued currency in the world followed by AUD and CAD. These three currencies could have bigger drop at any time now.

My ideas are not a recommendation to either buy or sell any security, commodity or currency. Please do your own research prior to making any investment decisions.

Hoop
14-04-2014, 11:13 AM
Big Mac index (adjusted to GDP/person) doesn't agree with you...it seems to think NZ$ is only slighly overvalued (much less overvalued now than in 2011)..A$ is undervalued..... But hey what does a hamburger know that you guys don't know...:D right?

EDIT:...It seems if you're Asian ... the whole world is overvalued (Hint:..change base currency on the interactive map))

http://www.economist.com/content/big-mac-index

robbo24
17-04-2014, 08:34 PM
Good piece suggesting retest of 90 cents as Asian data came in strong (ish) and Australian CPI is up next week. The field is set!

http://www.fxstreet.com/news/forex-news/article.aspx?storyid=1bd57191-6839-4a07-a245-3f9945d2816d

Hi Moosie,

Thought I'd stop by the Forex forum to wish you luck in manipulating the NZD/AUD exchange rate from the comfort of the Sharetrader forum :eek2:

cyclist
17-04-2014, 08:39 PM
Hi Moosie,

Thought I'd stop by the Forex forum to wish you luck in manipulating the NZD/AUD exchange rate from the comfort of the Sharetrader forum :eek2:

Exporters throughout the nation gather to give thanks to a young chap named Moosie, who, by jawboning the NZD down, has succeeded where the RBNZ had failed for years.

robbo24
17-04-2014, 09:26 PM
Oh that is absoute gold, made my night!

Uh oh he's done it now... His prowess at manipulating markets has caused gold to take a downturn!!

winner69
18-04-2014, 08:59 AM
On a more serious note, Golden Ballsacks is starting to weigh in with a heavy fist on the NZD (start buying up exporters if you believe them!)

http://www.cnbc.com/id/101590873

Suppose the same guy at Goldman Sachs who has tried to talk down the AUD to 80 cents USD over the last few months ..forecast 80 cents ... .... seems to be going the other way to me

GS have been short AUD and NZD for a while .... must be getting a bit worried .... but eventually they will be right if they stick to their guns

Maybe you could join them instead of the RBNZ Mr Moosie

robbo24
18-04-2014, 11:19 AM
Maybe you could join them instead of the RBNZ Mr Moosie

No no no, Moosie is going to be the the Next Top Investor.

Taking the best of Allan Hubbard and Derek Handley, he will run his own show and be the hero of the NZX.

Valuegrowth
20-04-2014, 07:53 PM
I believe sooner than later NZD will go down against AUD. We could see bigger drop in NZD especially during second half this year. Thereafter down trend could continue until 2016 while having volatility. In short NZD is more vulnerable now.

My ideas are not a recommendation to either buy or sell any security or currency.Please do your own research prior to making any investment decisions.

blueswan
24-04-2014, 11:51 AM
This KiwiOz hit the major support at 0.92 where I started buying again. It went below that level slightly but long term trend still up with out taking into account Hawkish RBNZ comments.

peat
24-04-2014, 01:59 PM
The elastic band snapped back!
The gradual continued build up of my short Aud/NZD positions was saved from disaster by last 24 hours events with some of them moving into profit and others still being in a fairly large loss. Certainly not going to be the best trade ever but not looking as bad as I thought it was going to be.

Corporate
29-04-2014, 01:16 AM
Hi all - what are the current views on the AUDNZD exchange rate? The NZD has been under some pressure...but will this continue or will the NZD press ahead and continue its upward trend.

From a personal point of view, I have a sum of AUD that I would like to bring back to NZD in the next 12 months. My current thinking is to drip feed it back in say 4 tranches as opposed to one lump some.

peat
29-04-2014, 11:04 AM
Hi all - what are the current views on the AUDNZD exchange rate? The NZD has been under some pressure...but will this continue or will the NZD press ahead and continue its upward trend.

From a personal point of view, I have a sum of AUD that I would like to bring back to NZD in the next 12 months. My current thinking is to drip feed it back in say 4 tranches as opposed to one lump some.
Given the unpredictable nature of exchange rates that is the best way course of action to avoid outright speculation.
However it is historically low (AUD/NZD rate) so if one was to speculate one would think there may be some return to mean over the medium to long term.

Despite current trends , personally I tend to think that long term AUD is a stronger economy (and hence currency) than NZD and wiser people than me are seeing current low AUD/NZD rate as a a good entry point for Aussie investments.

I see Antipodean currencies as both on long term climbs vs USD which will of course be punctuated by violent corrections.

blueswan
29-04-2014, 01:19 PM
NZD vs AUD still playing at support from March of last year. It will have to break below 0.90 before I start selling NZD/AUD. One thing about this cross is that it takes a long time for this to trend and once we see a reversal it will take another few months of this downward trend. This is not as volatile as the NZD or AUD against the USD. Converting funds from Australia will depend on the timing of when you need funds here. I would wait until it really break low 91s and test 90 or start its ascent toward 95s again

Entrep
29-04-2014, 04:05 PM
That's my view. We are at 5+ year low - why convert anything now unless you really need it?

Corporate
29-04-2014, 06:55 PM
Thanks all - a lot to think about !

smpl
29-04-2014, 09:14 PM
i have a question about the AUDNZD in early 2011 when it was pushing multi-year highs. i remember getting quite excited at the time and could not find a single article in mainstream media not do i believe there was any coverage on this forum. could someone provide some insight on why that might have been? i made money (clearly) so i'm not complaining.

blueswan
01-05-2014, 12:23 PM
Whoopsie, support still holds on this cross on NZDAUD or resistance on the AUDNZD. Good bounce after hitting high 0.91s on NZDAUD. It has to make a clean break below 91 to get a reversal signal.

peat
02-05-2014, 09:33 AM
Hey Moosie, note that RSI has now gone below 30 for the first time since our earlier conversation.
Hence I have close my short positions , some at a loss - those early ones, some at a profit, as I kept selling into the rally.
I may well be commencing longs soon as RSI crosses above 30 threshold. Ironically I do this for many pairs and this has been one of the worst, which is why I rarely post my positions these days, talking about it always seems to be the kiss of death ;+)

winner69
12-06-2014, 06:16 PM
Well, looks like big suppprt at 92 has failed and we're now headed for a test of the big ol' 90. Fonterra payout gettig lower and, combined with the OCR, are the catalysts for price movements. Shifted back over to Oz stocks week and a half ago around 93. Glad I did now! :)

Well the big resistance at 92 broke and we seem headed back to 95 again

Hoop
06-07-2014, 11:59 AM
This thread seems to have a longer term element to it....
Sometimes, even for short termers it may be nice to know the possible long term trend behaviour ..

http://i458.photobucket.com/albums/qq306/Hoop_1/NZA04072014.png (http://s458.photobucket.com/user/Hoop_1/media/NZA04072014.png.html)

winner69
10-07-2014, 06:59 PM
This thread seems to have a longer term element to it....
Sometimes, even for short termers it may be nice to know the possible long term trend behaviour ..

http://i458.photobucket.com/albums/qq306/Hoop_1/NZA04072014.png (http://s458.photobucket.com/user/Hoop_1/media/NZA04072014.png.html)

Hey Hoop - has it just broken through that resistance or is it just on it

So maybe parity on the cards or is that just a pipedream


Just as well moosie got out when he did ... made his zillions and moved to Palmy

Hoop
11-07-2014, 12:18 AM
Hey Hoop - has it just broken through that resistance or is it just on it

So maybe parity on the cards or is that just a pipedream


Just as well moosie got out when he did ... made his zillions and moved to Palmy

eh:confused:... resistance??... do you mean support? Nah not yet ...give it time to retest, could even be another few months...

Hmmm..parity........It may have to have another Coppock failure for that to happen...Coppock failures are rare....two in a row??....hell yeah, I can believe it as all the other Equity records are being busted and the conventional normally reliable indicators are all crying wolf....Hmmm..bubble signature? :(...
If it does finally happen (parity) all us Nz STers should have a parity party..All Aussi STers invited if they supply the grog..eh?:D

oh..we better not forgot our Canadian friend ..he can bring a few boxes of...:D

http://www.liquorland.co.nz/stock/159199.jpg

winner69
11-07-2014, 06:32 AM
I was looking at it the right way around - like what the NZD is worth

Upside down chart ha ha ......Resistance at 94 ish

Joshuatree
11-07-2014, 08:36 AM
Me too more pertinent to most of us upside down but thanks.

Hoop
11-07-2014, 11:35 AM
A upsidedown chart.....Coppock indicator not suitable so have added trend indicators...
Note the bearish rising wedge? (another bottom touch to confirm would be nice) it has a 69% chance of breaking down through the bottom edge and according to Bulkowski "average distance to the breakout is 58 to 64% of the way to the triangles apex" ... so it due to happen now ......However don't get to hung up over it, as the downtrend after the breakout is very unreliable (Bulkowski) (http://thepatternsite.com/risewedge.html) ...As you can see if the break down happens there are many places where this breakdown can fail...there are numerous shorter term resistances in play before the target price can be met (90.7)..

Of course it has a chance (31%) of breaking out to the top side ... getting above a short term slight downsloping resistance line yesterday is promising as it will no doubt increase that 31% chance...

http://i458.photobucket.com/albums/qq306/Hoop_1/NZDvAUSD10072014.png (http://s458.photobucket.com/user/Hoop_1/media/NZDvAUSD10072014.png.html)

The other noticeable thing is the conjunction at 95..If the NZ$ wants parity it has to get past this conjunction road block...I personally think this parity thing is a bridge too far ...the cycle seen from the very long 13yr chart point of view (previous AUSDvNZD chart(post#81)) seems to be topped out...the double top 94.7/94.9 chart pattern looks confirmed???

winner69
25-07-2014, 06:46 AM
Yup, I see lower highs and lower lows ahead. Aussie CPI came in at a range topping 3% and crushed the Kiwi back to 92 today. Wheeler is up tomorrow and although he will likely raise on final time, there is already talk of RBNZ selling hard into the Kiwi to get it under control. Combined with an unknown bottom in dairy prices and mediocre inflation on this side of the ditch, I think our highs have been and truly gone.

I shoved more money across the ditch last week near 94 and couldn't be happier right now. That test of 90 up soon will be crucial :)

OMG - inflation will now start going through the roof . Petrol this weekend and then all the other imported stuff

No cheap Xmas presents this year

Hoop
25-07-2014, 10:57 AM
OMG - inflation will now start going through the roof . Petrol this weekend and then all the other imported stuff

No cheap Xmas presents this year

Instead of giving them presents this year, give them the money instead Winner.....make sure it's in kiwi dollars :D.

.................................................. .................................................. .................................................. .................................................. .................................................. ......

Well, from this chartists personal point of view, I think the Kiwi against the Ozzie has definitely double topped out...A noticeable feature around cyclic reversals (adds to confirming that reversal) are the numerous 50/200 moving average crossings where the bulls and bears are fighting the battle....We have had 4 death crosses (last one occurring on Wed 23rd, a day before the RBNZ OCR announcement) and 3 golden crosses since the cyclic reversal 4 months ago..

YES, the bull died quietly unnoticed as most cyclic reversals commonly do (contrary to mythical media attitudes of bulls dying with spectacular crashes)... This Bear Market Cycle is 4 months old****.. We are in the first stage of the bear market cycle ...so expect disappointing bull wins and more profitable bear wins ....the denial attitude that the bull cycle hasn't ended will slowly erode away to point when realisation will set in and that will trigger the first of at least one round of the dreaded "C" word...capitulation..

As of today NZ$1 is trading at 0.9110 very close to the chart pattern breakdown target price of 0.907.. Quote from my post above :- "As you can see if the break down happens there are many places where this breakdown can fail...there are numerous shorter term resistances in play before the target price can be met (90.7)..".
0.907 is just a line in the sand saying this target price had a theoretical 70% chance (probably a bit less% with all the supports in its way to met its target) of being met from the pattern breakout..It is not a support line..but curiously enough there is a support area around this .9070 area...

It may not happen but there is a good chance a relief rally (sucker) might be triggered somewhere around here (0.907) and bounce up to test the 0.9180 area... bounces during the 1st phase of a Bear cycle (denial phase) always give the bulls (bear deniers) some "I told you so" joy and pushes home the fact that their buy "cheap" in the dips strategy still works, and to the contrary, gives the media and the general "unwashed" more noise that the NZ$ needs intervention to bring it down.

If .9070 area breaks, the next major support is at 0.890..... As we can now believe with confidence from a series of ongoing TA confirmations that NZ$vA$ is in fact in a bear market cycle we can assume a future period of lower highs and lower lows...so expect at some near future that 0.890 support will be reached for testing..and odds on the 0.890 support will eventually break too...


**** A very similar cyclic reversal behaviour is happening with Gold but inverted...bull bear/fights together with golden and death crosses for control in the first stage of a cyclic bull market.

winner69
27-07-2014, 01:49 PM
Check out the last time the RBNZ said stuff like this back in 07/08. .96 to .81 in matter of months (last chart on link beliw). My target is lower but I'd be pretty happy nontheless seeing a low 80 sooner rather than later.

Let the cascade effect lower begin (finally)!

http://www.anz.co.nz/commercial-institutional/economic-markets-research/exchange-rate-graphs/nzd-aud/

Is that the only reason why you think the NZD going to go to 0.80aud or less?

I believe that while the key drivers in relative economic growth and relative interest rates are such that they will continue to justify a high NZD/aud for another year or so, (maybe even higher?). But as always with currency there are short term movements (volatilty) and currently it is just down, but not the start of a long term correction

Hoop
28-07-2014, 11:08 AM
..........Oddly enough, while Wheeler rabbits on about how high our NZD is, without his I-rate increases, the NZD fall could have been sudden and vicious.

Loved to be a fly on the RBNZ wall ....I guess there would've been some discussion about this latest rate rise...maybe they discussed that very scenario Belg of what could happen if they left the rate at 3.25?..could've been an inflationary catalyst..eh?

winner69
28-07-2014, 12:22 PM
NZD and AUD (v USD) valued about right at the moment according to The Economst

Ready for a dive? Of course not, Just that most read the wrong headlines,the ones they want to believe

http://www.economist.com/content/big-mac-index

Valuegrowth
28-07-2014, 02:24 PM
Concur ... NZD hasn't anyplace to go except down. BTW the GDT auction prices are an indication of the future as most of the supply is locked up in longer term contracts. Hence NZD dollar fall will be steady.

Oddly enough, while Wheeler rabbits on about how high our NZD is, without his I-rate increases, the NZD fall could have been sudden and vicious.
I agree with you. Fall of NZD is imminent. During next 10 quarters it will drop sharply and will readjust to real value again.

winner69
28-07-2014, 02:42 PM
I agree with you. Fall of NZD is imminent. During next 10 quarters it will drop sharply and will readjust to real value again.

What are assuming 'real value' is v used

Hoop
28-07-2014, 07:34 PM
NZD and AUD (v USD) valued about right at the moment according to The Economst

Ready for a dive? Of course not, Just that most read the wrong headlines,the ones they want to believe

http://www.economist.com/content/big-mac-index

Seems to be correct according to the chart below...Doesn't look overvalued to me either ...You could say it was overvalued in 2012 with the big gap between TOT and RTWI (see chart)...The only crossovers occurred during recessions....we are in a boom so the gap seems rather narrow historically-wise...maybe I could argue the NZ$ was slightly undervalued in June 2014.
Ref: Reserve Bank Bulletin June 2014 ...link is found on this page (http://www.rbnz.govt.nz/research_and_publications/fact_sheets_and_guides/)

http://i458.photobucket.com/albums/qq306/Hoop_1/TermsoftradevNZJuly2014.png (http://s458.photobucket.com/user/Hoop_1/media/TermsoftradevNZJuly2014.png.html)

Valuegrowth
28-07-2014, 09:26 PM
For me it is overvalued by more than 40% against USD. As I said before fall of NZD is imminent.

http://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/news/article.cfm?c_id=3&objectid=11300391

NZ dollar slips as Key says kiwi over-valued

http://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/news/article.cfm?c_id=3&objectid=11229779

IMF says kiwi dollar overvalued

Valuegrowth
29-07-2014, 07:31 PM
NZD falling again as Fonterra cuts the Farmgate price by 14%. Bounce off .9050 tonight, but a test of .9000 is up soon...

http://www.fxstreet.com/news/forex-news/article.aspx?storyid=453d7e9e-68e8-46bc-9bef-82c88311f879

Asia Recap: Kiwi keeps bleeding on Fonterra milk pay-out

winner69
06-08-2014, 02:44 PM
Dairy auction prices absolutely smashed another 8% last night, back now to 2012 prices. I expect a smart dip below 90 cents very soon and am very bearish the Kiwi now. Nowhere to go but down for the next few months!


So is this the start of a real tumble .....or just one of many dips in a long uptrend.

I tend to go for the latter

winner69
07-08-2014, 03:29 PM
Shocker of a jobs report today from OZ. Just can't keep the Kiwi down!

So the AUD?NZD xrate is driven more by the relative economic conditions between the 2 countries rather than a often loose correlation with milk prices.

Medium to long term that is .... tomorrow something else will happen here or over there and there will be a short term blip up or down

Corporate
16-08-2014, 05:31 PM
Get your 'Roos while you still can!

http://www.stuff.co.nz/business/opinion-analysis/10389627/Support-for-kiwi-questionable-yet-still-flying-high

Can't wait for the 'savage beating' the Kiwi should get soon. Me thinks one more tanking of milk prices and the RBNZ holding off rate hikes for the rest if the year should be the catalyst for the breaking of key support at 90 cents. After that, it's all downhill FAST imho.

Bring it on!

JBmurc
19-08-2014, 10:27 PM
Bring it on!

Hey just wait till we sell our house.... keen on shift a few 100k over to AUD etrade Call account ....then it can crash back to the low 80's

winner69
21-08-2014, 09:38 AM
Stop losses to be hit moosie ....big time

Was a few weeks ago but relates to today

Bugger .... I live in a country with a weakening currency. No proud any more

http://www.interest.co.nz/currencies/71404/roger-j-kerr-says-when-there-decisive-break-downside-below-84-usc-it-will-trigger-w

Hoop
21-08-2014, 11:18 AM
Stop losses to be hit moosie ....big time

Was a few weeks ago but relates to today

Bugger .... I live in a country with a weakening currency. No proud any more

http://www.interest.co.nz/currencies/71404/roger-j-kerr-says-when-there-decisive-break-downside-below-84-usc-it-will-trigger-w

Hmmmm...doesn't look too flash does it ?
My chart below seems to agree with Roger Kerr's statement.

We don't want that 84c support breach resulting in a serious correction.....All markets work on the "availability of money" ...We have seen some money exiting NZ resulting of the softening of our markets...the election with an uncertain outcome doesn't help the NZ$ either..

http://i458.photobucket.com/albums/qq306/Hoop_1/NZUS20082014.png (http://s458.photobucket.com/user/Hoop_1/media/NZUS20082014.png.html)

winner69
21-08-2014, 11:26 AM
Mr Kerr been talking down the NZD for a while now, even longer than moosie

So much so one thinks he has an ulterior motive

Going to be a bugger for the country if it drops to usd70/75 or lower ....and for me

Hoop
21-08-2014, 11:52 AM
Mr Kerr been talking down the NZD for a while now, even longer than moosie

So much so one thinks he has an ulterior motive

Going to be a bugger for the country if it drops to usd70/75 or lower ....and for me

Yes our crowd (leading) are always the first to feel the pain when the NZ Inc downside starts.. and..the leading crowd get no sympathy from the media nor from laggers who are still partying on....

The "we want a lower dollar" crowd (lagging) rejoice and then 6 or so months down the track when the NZ$ correction pain trickles down to them they focus on the leading crowd and see them earning money again and cry foul.. and.. again the leading crowd get no sympathy from the media nor from laggers......

Ohhhh ..we are so unloved.........ahhhh.. such is life.....................I'm over it already and it hasn't begun yet:)

Corporate
04-09-2014, 11:01 PM
I use directfx.co.nz.

Nothing but great service.

winner69
05-09-2014, 07:55 AM
0.8880 and counting. ECB cutting rates last night may keep the TWI a tad higher but the USD keeps trucking on. Gettting precipitous...

On dear moosie - do I see it quite a way above 0.90 today

Maybe precipitous next time

No doubt you saw this rise coming and bought your cash back to NZ. So maybe you can another go in a week or so.

Cheers mate

cyclist
05-09-2014, 11:37 AM
Palmy is bad for you moosie .....you were so much more exuberant and positive when you in Napier

I thought he was sounding very chipper. Not surprising given which side of this trade he is on and how fast the plan is coming together.

(p.s. I know you already know that winner, and are just having a bit of fun).

JBmurc
10-09-2014, 09:15 AM
Had my first Forex trade last night went Short on the AUD/NZD ...cost me $1190 just before midnight took a $300 profit this morning
micro chart was looking over-brought ...happy with getting the right direction on my first trade ...

winner69
22-09-2014, 08:34 AM
.
Originally Posted by moosie_900
0.8920 and counting. Sairy down 6% again yesterday. OCR non-hike and statement next Thursday (confirming no more hikes for foreseeable future after that tumbling dairy price). Wheeler also selling into Kiwi.

I reaffirm my 84-86 near term target on the Kiwi


Hope moosie is hanging in there and hasn't panicked as the NZD reverts back over 91

Just going to take longer than he thought

blackcap
29-09-2014, 03:46 PM
I have confidence he is not.

All good. Shall plummet before year end.

Thar she goes....

Corporate
29-09-2014, 06:29 PM
Is anyonewatching the NZDGBP?

stoploss
29-09-2014, 07:10 PM
Is anyonewatching the NZDGBP?

was talking to New Guy about this on the RIP Moosie thread the other day ....looks like it is headed back to 2.50 ( 1 pound , 2.50 Kiwi )

Corporate
29-09-2014, 08:43 PM
was talking to New Guy about this on the RIP Moosie thread the other day ....looks like it is headed back to 2.50 ( 1 pound , 2.50 Kiwi )

thanks stoploss - I haven't been reading that thread!

Entrep
08-10-2014, 04:16 PM
Since starting this thread last December I still haven't converted, but at least the rate is going in the right direction.

Any thoughts on where it could go from here with the ASX looking set for a correction? Thinking I might bring 10% to 20% back around now as a sort of risk mitigation, but may very well end up living in Oz at some stage 2-3 years or more down the track. Thinking out loud I guess if it's gonna be that far down the track I'm better off bring it back and paying off a chunk of the mortgage.

BFG
11-10-2014, 07:50 AM
As the saying goes, don't fight the Fed. RBNZ being the equivalent, with even the PM chiming in, should be a good indication of what this FX rate will do. Add the fact that interest rares may not go up at all in 2015 in Kiwiland, along with a huge knock to dairy prices and a rebuild going slow at best and we have a perfect storm for a big fall. On the other side, China will likely have a "soft landing" (as we all know how they live contril over there...) and I don't believe the commodities market can implode much more than it already has. From what I hear, the Oz economy definitely is not all doom and gloom today. Seems to be pricing it in these days though.

I'd say reassess in 3-6 months.

"You can tune a piano, but you can't tuna fish" ;)

BFG
26-10-2014, 08:47 AM
Downtrend line still in place after bounce lower off 91 early in the week. Expecting next leg down to .8750 - .8700 area along trend channel line over next few weeks. :)

Corporate
26-10-2014, 07:48 PM
Downtrend line still in place after bounce lower off 91 early in the week. Expecting next leg down to .8750 - .8700 area along trend channel line over next few weeks. :)

BFG, could you post your chart up? Many thanks, C.

BFG
26-10-2014, 08:47 PM
BFG, could you post your chart up? Many thanks, C.

Currently away from home so may take a few days. I have a few I can chuck up.

Corporate
28-10-2014, 04:57 AM
What is the general feeling - are we forming a base around 0.89 or is the downtrend likely to continue...

6420

BFG
11-11-2014, 09:00 PM
What is the general feeling - are we forming a base around 0.89 or is the downtrend likely to continue...

6420

We've got a nice little descending triangle forming. Bearish signal, and time of reckoning is coming soon it looks like!

JBmurc
11-11-2014, 09:59 PM
Fingers crossed for a break southward towards the mid 80's .....

Milk prices Vs Iron ore ?

BFG
17-11-2014, 11:48 AM
Aussie inking a massive free trade deal with China as we speak. News out tomorrow. I'm banking on the final end of 90s accordingly ;)

Entrep
18-11-2014, 07:09 AM
Seems to be going the other way with the AUD getting weaker?

Hoop
18-11-2014, 11:03 PM
Forex is notoriously difficult area to grasp
As you can see from a longer term chart below there's... whipsaws everywhere...no valid support/resistance lines ...no decent trend lines,... and no chart patterns...there's not much to work with...
Showing a broader picture of where the NZD/AUD is heading is limited ...I have added the standard Deviation channel and the 200day moving average.. and even then I would have little to no confidence as to whether a breakout would be genuine ...

So where is the NZD heading?...I have no idea but at this moment it is still tracking within its downward SD channel.

http://i458.photobucket.com/albums/qq306/Hoop_1/nzdaud18112014.png (http://s458.photobucket.com/user/Hoop_1/media/nzdaud18112014.png.html)

BFG
19-11-2014, 06:28 AM
Hoop, would you then consider the dollar as manipulated then as noted in the gold thread? I know you look for clear indicators as to whether a trade is, but if there is a lack of any sensibility does it also suggest manipulation? I noted a downtrend line over the past year from 95 cent high but there are frequent bull traps with breaks (this could be yet another).

Meanwhile, dairy trade down ANOTHER 3%. There has to be repercussions of this at some point...

https://www.globaldairytrade.info/

stoploss
19-11-2014, 12:47 PM
Hoop, would you then consider the dollar as manipulated then as noted in the gold thread? I know you look for clear indicators as to whether a trade is, but if there is a lack of any sensibility does it also suggest manipulation? I noted a downtrend line over the past year from 95 cent high but there are frequent bull traps with breaks (this could be yet another).

Meanwhile, dairy trade down ANOTHER 3%. There has to be repercussions of this at some point...

https://www.globaldairytrade.info/

BFG it might be a case of both the AUD and NZD being weak ...tumbling Dairy prices vs tumbling Iron ore, Oil etc ......reading a few of the posts from KW paints a pretty negative picture over the ditch . My pick is RBA to cut rates , so I would imagine although dairy getting a kicking until housing under control in Auck , RBNZ on hold Kiwi will appreciate vs the AUD over the next year .

BFG
22-11-2014, 04:44 PM
Downtrend line solidly broken this week on lower iron ore prices in Oz and a fifth straight stronger consumer index read in NZ (although GDT auction down another 3% as well).

I am not, however, bringing my money back across the ditch. China just announced rate cuts and ECB announced bond buying (read: QE US style) on Friday and I expect these to help the AUD much more than the Kiwi. I am also expecting a LOSS on the governments books on December 9th rather than a PROFIT as promised. You can't have your country's main commodity tumble 50% in a year and expect that! I highly doubt Wheeler will raise rates further this year if currency wars are still ongoing with a vastly overvalued NZD.

Will buy more soon if strength continues. This can't continue forever.

Xerof
23-11-2014, 08:54 PM
A cursory glance at Hoops's chart and this leaps out..... Sorry moosie

6501

BFG
27-11-2014, 04:50 PM
A cursory glance at Hoops's chart and this leaps out..... Sorry moosie

6501

No need to be sorry, the market being irrational is not your fault!

Previous downtrend line now back in effect. Target is bounce off 93. If it goes that high I'll just shift more across the Tasman, didn't think I'd see another opportunity like that again!

winner69
02-12-2014, 03:38 PM
A cursory glance at Hoops's chart and this leaps out..... Sorry moosie

6501

Chart seems to be playing out ..... spooky eh

Almost back to .93

Maybe the relative economic fundamentals between the two countries is what really drives the cross rate, just maybe. Weird eh

BFG
04-12-2014, 06:54 PM
Chart seems to be playing out ..... spooky eh

Almost back to .93

Maybe the relative economic fundamentals between the two countries is what really drives the cross rate, just maybe. Weird eh

I can't see NZD hitting 95 again vs AUD as both Iron Ore and Dairy have been decimated to the same degree, but I still believe RBNZ will stay away from further rates rises while the rest of the world continues easing and they look to drvalue the Kiwi.

I'm betting English announces that there has been a surprise deficit (December 16th) and Fonterra will drastically slashes farmgate prices next week. Sounds like a pretty bug double whammy coming up before Xmas...

http://www.odt.co.nz/news/business/325977/another-1-payout-likely

Joshuatree
04-12-2014, 07:10 PM
Dairy re a quarter of exports. any others doing well.

BFG
04-12-2014, 07:33 PM
Dairy re a quarter of exports. any others doing well.

Any idea what percentage iron ore makes up of Oz exports?

BFG
04-12-2014, 07:36 PM
Here's a good break down on NZ exports (wow dairy is massive!)

Exports - Top 20 commodities

Source: Statistics New Zealand
Commodity NZ$ Millions Year end
Milk powder, butter, and cheese 13,590 31-Dec-13
Meat and edible offal 5,276 31-Dec-13
Logs, wood, and wood articles 3,858 31-Dec-13
Crude oil 1,727 31-Dec-13
Machinery 1,527 31-Dec-13
Beverages 1,491 31-Dec-13
Fruits and nuts 1,483 31-Dec-13
Fish 1,327 31-Dec-13
Aluminoids, starches and glues 1,253 31-Dec-13
Electrical machinery and equipment 1,066 31-Dec-13
Cereal preparations 973 31-Dec-13
Aluminium 972 31-Dec-13
Pearls, precious stones, and metals 836 31-Dec-13
Wool 756 31-Dec-13
Optical, medical, and measuring equipment 745 31-Dec-13
Miscellaneous edible preparations 738 31-Dec-13
Wool pulp 620 31-Dec-13
Hides, skins and leather 597 31-Dec-13
Iron and steel 575 31-Dec-13
Paper products 479 31-Dec-13

BFG
04-12-2014, 07:46 PM
Apparently Iron Ore makes up 22% of Australian exports

6560

Apparently dairy makes up 24% for NZ

6561

stoploss
04-12-2014, 07:49 PM
Apparently Iron Ore makes up 22% of Australian exports

6560

Probably more like 10 % now ........

BFG
04-12-2014, 07:57 PM
Probably more like 10 % now ........

Which commodity are we betting recovers first eh? ;)

winner69
04-12-2014, 08:05 PM
There is little (almost non-existent) correlation between annual changes in the ANZ Dairy Product Price Index and annual changes in the NZD/AUD (correlation coefficient of 0.09)

And counter intuitively there is no correlation between changes in that same index and GDP

BFG
04-12-2014, 08:07 PM
There is little (almost non-existent) correlation between annual changes in the ANZ Dairy Product Price Index and annual changes in the NZD/AUD (correlation coefficient of 0.09)

And counter intuitively there is no correlation between changes in that same index and GDP

Why is it that I have noted large drops over the past few months when GDT auction negative results are announced early mornings here then Winner?

winner69
04-12-2014, 08:13 PM
I did say annual changes and on data since 1986

Annual probably too long a time frame for you eh

winner69
04-12-2014, 08:20 PM
BFG - Same data series on a monthly basis (ie change from previous month) it is slightly less correlated (even though still essentially non-existent) than against the annual changes

PS - also only using monthly mid points so would not capture the hourly / daily stuff you see (just noise)

BFG
05-12-2014, 06:10 AM
BFG - Same data series on a monthly basis (ie change from previous month) it is slightly less correlated (even though still essentially non-existent) than against the annual changes

PS - also only using monthly mid points so would not capture the hourly / daily stuff you see (just noise)

Ah right got you. Charts can change quite dramatically between, hourly, daily, weekly and monthly!

What's your outlook then? Are you a parity pirate? (Yarrrr)

winner69
05-12-2014, 07:49 AM
Ah right got you. Charts can change quite dramatically between, hourly, daily, weekly and monthly!

What's your outlook then? Are you a parity pirate? (Yarrrr)

My view much the same as a few months ago - there will be short term spikes and tumbles (the noise you see) but with an upward bias and I would not be surprised to see a new peak sometime next year (probably not parity though)

BFG
08-12-2014, 05:22 PM
As expected, a nice big fat bounce off the primary downtrend line @ 93 cents as stated earlier. Traders must be running scared of Fonterra's pay out in the mid $4's tomorrow. A lot of pain heading the Kiwis way very soon...

winner69
08-12-2014, 06:10 PM
As expected, a nice big fat bounce off the primary downtrend line @ 93 cents as stated earlier. Traders must be running scared of Fonterra's pay out in the mid $4's tomorrow. A lot of pain heading the Kiwis way very soon...

Are we looking at the same chart?

Why a lot of pain heading the Kiwis way very soon caused by the AUD/NZD?

Hoop
08-12-2014, 07:32 PM
As expected, a nice big fat bounce off the primary downtrend line @ 93 cents as stated earlier. Traders must be running scared of Fonterra's pay out in the mid $4's tomorrow. A lot of pain heading the Kiwis way very soon...


:confused: :confused:
http://i458.photobucket.com/albums/qq306/Hoop_1/NZVA08122014.png (http://s458.photobucket.com/user/Hoop_1/media/NZVA08122014.png.html)

winner69
08-12-2014, 08:06 PM
:confused: :confused:



Think BFG must have got confused with the NZD/USD .... which I agree looks a bit sad

Hoop
08-12-2014, 09:36 PM
Think BFG must have got confused with the NZD/USD .... which I agree looks a bit sad
I'll reply before the TA textbook gets recited at me:).......To be fair BFG is technically correct..but from many bad experiences with trend lines I now take the conservative view in which I rather see a decent result (other indicators in support) not a marginal one off before I convince myself of any technical change..

Channels to show trends are so much better in my opinion..but that's my opinion and many won't share that view as it is a longer term view not a short term view...

I take the view that if the price line fails I need confirmation..there are 2 support lines very close together..9230 is the weak short term support (risky) and the 9199 ..If the 9199 support breaks then there's not much to hold up the NZ$ and the primary down trend will much more likely be confirmed.

The NZ$/AUD is at an interesting technical situation.....let see how this will be played out over the next few days...

http://i458.photobucket.com/albums/qq306/Hoop_1/NZVA08122014A.png (http://s458.photobucket.com/user/Hoop_1/media/NZVA08122014A.png.html)

BFG
08-12-2014, 09:59 PM
Are we looking at the same chart?

Why a lot of pain heading the Kiwis way very soon caused by the AUD/NZD?

Winner. Triple whammy up imho.

1) absolute slaughter on the farmgate price of dairy up tomorrow from Fonterra.

2) RBNz confirms no rate rises on Thursday, with no more hikes on the horizon, a possible loosening next year and even tighter LVRs to manage the housing bubble.

3) Next week Bill English announces a deficit in the Budget, not a surplus as always expcted.

As I said, a lot of pain ahead as reality hits home...

stoploss
08-12-2014, 10:05 PM
Winner. Triple whammy up imho.

1) absolute slaughter on the farmgate price of dairy up tomorrow from Fonterra.

2) RBNz confirms no rate rises on Thursday, with no more hikes on the horizon, a possible loosening next year and even tighter LVRs to manage the housing bubble.


3) Next week Bill English announces a deficit in the Budget, not a surplus as always expcted.

As I said, a lot of pain ahead as reality hits home...

True but equally as much pain across the Tasman ....they are closer to a rate cut than we are ......I still believe Kiwi will outperform AUD over the next year

BFG
08-12-2014, 10:31 PM
Good old currency wars eh? ;)

stoploss
08-12-2014, 10:36 PM
Good old currency wars eh? ;)

At least we're not printing the stuff ....

winner69
09-12-2014, 07:59 PM
This guy probably got it right

http://www.interest.co.nz/currencies/73284/hifxs-dan-bell-reviews-world-currencies-2014-and-looks-ahead-what-expect-2015
By Gareth Vaughan

.........New Zealand dollar down to US70 cents ........Kiwi dollar may head above 95 Australian cents next year.

This is the AUD/NZD thread ......good news I reckon

BFG
10-12-2014, 06:27 AM
You better hope Fonterra's payout isn't less than $4.75 today then Winner. My bet is $4.55.

BFG
10-12-2014, 08:01 AM
http://i.stuff.co.nz/business/farming/dairy/63999771/fonterra-payout-cut-expected

$4.70 it is!

winner69
10-12-2014, 08:29 AM
Give the traders something to play around with for a few hours ....usual short term (seconds / minutes) reaction

All back to normal this afternoon, the AUD/NZD cross that is

BFG
10-12-2014, 08:46 AM
No real effect, looks like it was pretty much priced in. See what Wheeler says tomorrow eh? 93 resistance held well.

BFG
10-12-2014, 08:49 AM
I note Fonterra os even downbeat about this way lower forecast as well. If this keeps up I'd expect low 4's next time...

BFG
11-12-2014, 09:30 AM
So Wheeler has maintained a "soft" tightening regime (read: I'll change at the drop of a hat) and said the current levels are "unjustifiable & unsustainable"

So traders spike it up to 94!

Ah well, time to shove more money across the ditch in 2015!

Hoop
11-12-2014, 10:06 AM
As expected, a nice big fat bounce off the primary downtrend line @ 93 cents as stated earlier. Traders must be running scared of Fonterra's pay out in the mid $4's tomorrow. A lot of pain heading the Kiwis way very soon...


I'll reply before the TA textbook gets recited at me:).......To be fair BFG is technically correct..but from many bad experiences with trend lines I now take the conservative view in which I rather see a decent result (other indicators in support) not a marginal one off before I convince myself of any technical change......


So Wheeler has maintained a "soft" tightening regime (read: I'll change at the drop of a hat) and said the current levels are "unjustifiable & unsustainable"

So traders spike it up to 94!

Ah well, time to shove more money across the ditch in 2015!

Marginal downtrend confirmations are suspect as I outlined in my earlier post...Less experienced chartists can quickly become unglued by jumping in too quickly on a hint of a confirmation...and erringly reinforce that charting confirmation hint with their own non-charting predetermined assumptions (no matter how logical it may seem), instead of waiting for other related charting signals to verify.........Mixing bits and pieces from non related disciplines to validate a personal desired result (Confirmation Bias) is an investor sin which creates false logic..unfortunately on ST this happens so often it has become "normal"..and posters wonder in disbelief when an event goes against their and their groups "logic"...which can lead to investor Cognitive Dissonance**.

Todays NZ$ move up to .9393 has proved there is no primary downtrend line at present offering strong resistances..

Today's move up further confirms the channel upward breakout that occurred 2 weeks ago (see above chart)....and further validates what Winner has been saying..

**http://www.moneymanagement.com.au/analysis/investment/2013/how-investors-avoid-pitfalls-cognitive-dissonance

Xerof
11-12-2014, 11:47 AM
A cursory glance at Hoops's chart and this leaps out..... Sorry moosie

6501

Warned of this 3 weeks ago. No notice taken. I guess I should have stated the target for the upthrust has a lot to do with the height of the 'flagpole', but those with a burning interest will work that out

winner69
11-12-2014, 12:03 PM
A cursory glance at Hoops's chart and this leaps out..... Sorry moosie

6501

Yes mate, it was a great post and I did bring it up a bit later on.

BFG says irrational market, I say that chart supported by fundamentals

And I liked the flag pole bit as well

winner69
11-12-2014, 07:03 PM
NZD/AUD at about 94 cents seems about right

Don't think it will go much above 95/96 but who knows if Australia keeps sinking into the mire

BFG
11-12-2014, 09:35 PM
NZD/AUD at about 94 cents seems about right

Don't think it will go much above 95/96 but who knows if Australia keeps sinking into the mire

Agreed. Hence why I will buy more at "irrational" levels like this. I'm comfortable waiting some time for a turnaround as I believe the ASX has more opportunities and I have a long term outlook.

Don't fight the (NZ) Fed ;)

winner69
12-12-2014, 04:06 AM
Agreed. Hence why I will buy more at "irrational" levels like this. I'm comfortable waiting some time for a turnaround as I believe the ASX has more opportunities and I have a long term outlook.

Don't fight the (NZ) Fed ;)

Good move ....

BFG
12-12-2014, 06:30 AM
Good move ....
Can smell your sarcasm from here ;)

Woke up to 94.5 already. Yup, nice break out.

winner69
12-12-2014, 07:27 AM
Can smell your sarcasm from here ;)

Woke up to 94.5 already. Yup, nice break out.

Is a good move if you going to play the ASX for a while

Puts the icing on the cake

Just that your posts suggest you want more dramatic downward action than has happened.

BFG
12-12-2014, 09:32 AM
Is a good move if you going to play the ASX for a while

Puts the icing on the cake

Just that your posts suggest you want more dramatic downward action than has happened.

Yes, am definitely revising the bearish outlook as Australia looks to trim $9B off revenue over two years due to commodity price falls. More downward action would have given me free reign to transfer back to the NZX if an opportunity arose but I can live with sticking to the one way street.

If it reaches parity I will eat a hat (I'm sure NBT will donate one for that cause!)

BFG
12-12-2014, 09:41 AM
Is a good move if you going to play the ASX for a while

Puts the icing on the cake

Just that your posts suggest you want more dramatic downward action than has happened.

Yes, am definitely revising the bearish outlook as Australia looks to trim $9B off revenue over two years due to commodity price falls. More downward action would have given me free reign to transfer back to the NZX if an opportunity arose but I can live with sticking to the one way street.

If it reaches parity I will eat a hat (I'm sure NBT will donate one for that cause!)

Xerof
13-12-2014, 11:44 AM
This 0.95/0.9550 area has held as a resistance point on multiple occasions since 1991, possibly longer but I don't have any older charts than 1991, and 'should' be defended by those that like to defend such things again. But, look out if it manages to push on through these levels, as there will, I imagine, be massive stop-loss and stop-loss entry orders out there.

If we see a daily close above 9550 or so, then I'd choose your hat for personal taste qualities, as we would easily see a test of parity, pushed on by momentum traders.

Longer term, you would have to think these levels represent good value for moving funds to OZ, keeping in mind however that the KIWI stays stubbornly strong for much longer than it stays weak

winner69
13-12-2014, 12:13 PM
Early 1970's almost reached parity (might have popped over for a few hours) but since then mid 90's is the highest it has got

http://www.rbnz.govt.nz/statistics/tables/b1/hb1-monthly(1973-1998).xls

BFG
15-12-2014, 08:49 PM
I note that today the RBNZ rebalanced the NZD TWI to include the yuan at 20% of the currency basket. The USD was cut from 32% to 15% and the AUD bumped up 1% to 22%. This is to better correlate the NZD with NZs key trading partners.

BFG
18-12-2014, 01:51 PM
Traders trying to push through 95 but being rebuffed each time. Can it hold???

Hoop
19-12-2014, 10:23 AM
Traders trying to push through 95 but being rebuffed each time. Can it hold???

Following on from the 9 month down sloping channel break 3 weeks ago (see my chart post #126 8th Dec) (http://www.sharetrader.co.nz/showthread.php?9512-AUDNZD-Five-Year-Lows/page9).... the NZ/Aus correction has ended and presently at a long term higher high of 0.9510

BFG
20-12-2014, 01:26 PM
Yup, nice little breakthrough yesterday. After two spikes higher it slowly ground above .95 up to .9530.

Do we have an upside target price Hoop, or are we intotally blue sky territory? I will be looking to transfer more money across the ditch at the start of 2015. :)

winner69
23-12-2014, 06:26 PM
OMG - an Aussie say parity .... and then more

http://www.smh.com.au/business/markets/currencies/australian-dollar-on-track-to-dip-below-parity-with-new-zealand-20141223-12cxlj.html

BFG
23-12-2014, 07:01 PM
OMG - an Aussie say parity .... and then more

http://www.smh.com.au/business/markets/currencies/australian-dollar-on-track-to-dip-below-parity-with-new-zealand-20141223-12cxlj.html

I don't see how it could reach $1.05. Both key commodities have fallen drastically. Both governments have announced big losses (NZ most recently). Wheeler will not raise rates again as interest rates will definitely attract even more money to push up an already highly inflated Kiwi. RBNZ has said they're already intervening in the market. I can't see this happening because of all these issues.

And then he goes on to say vs the Greenback it will strengthen! With Oz cutting rates and US strengthening them, with a massively resurgent economy to boot! This guy is smoking some serious hooch! :O

Hoop
23-12-2014, 11:21 PM
Yup, nice little breakthrough yesterday. After two spikes higher it slowly ground above .95 up to .9530.

Do we have an upside target price Hoop, or are we intotally blue sky territory? I will be looking to transfer more money across the ditch at the start of 2015. :)

Sorry BFG for not responding quicker..I haven't had much time lately to view ST posts...and I've just found this one I should respond to.

Referring back to my previous chart.. the TA Targets after the breakout is approx 0.955 for the channel breakout and ~0.97 for the broadening pattern. The trading targets aren't resistance points, they are just points or lines in the sand that suggest there's a ~70% chance of the NZ$ reaching that point after the breakout as long as there are no strong resistances in the way...The broadening wedge pattern target has a strong resistance point in the way...so it would be a much less than 70% chance,,,therefore not a useful target point...and the TA target focus would be on the ~0.955 (the point where Technical Traders may offload [sell])


However it not quite "blue sky" yet...I'm working off an interactive chart* so the figures and dates might not be entirely accurate but it says.. back in Jan and March 2014 the previous double tops (just under 0.95) showed how powerful that historic resistance (~July 1995) was to break...With NZ$ breaking that point recently, will it now be a strong support point??..Theoretically Yes...and provide a much less buy in risk area..
To reach blue sky (assuming since NZ$ free market status) the NZ$ has to break above the ~0.958 * area (Dec 5th 2005)..If the previous historic resistance before that was a guide then reaching "blue sky" could be a difficult hurdle to jump..

If blue sky is reached, there is no existing resistances, so chances of reaching parity would be much improved ...At 1.00 (parity) I would expect there to be a psychological boundary (resistance) area

winner69
24-12-2014, 07:37 AM
Psychology around parity is interesting

Take the aud/usd a few years ago. Parity a stretch they said. Never said others. Maybe for a few days others said.

Well it reached parity and went all the way to $1.10 and stayed over $1.00 for more than 2 years

All comes down to rates fundamentally being driven by the relative strengths of economies.

At present the AUD/NZD is going all the NZD way. Those relative strengths of the two economies suggest anything is possible .....maybe parity and like the aud/usd a while ago maybe $1.10. That be exciting

BFG
24-12-2014, 01:28 PM
Cheers Hoop. I'm waiting to see if it breaks .955-.958 before buying. If it does, sweet, more bang for my buck. If not, oh well, don't mind buying a downtrend with money already over there from 94-95 days earier this year :)

Valuegrowth
24-12-2014, 02:05 PM
I found very interesting link. Will the Australian dollar go historic low against the New Zealand dollar or go below parity next year?

http://www.smh.com.au/business/markets/currencies/australian-dollar-on-track-to-dip-below-parity-with-new-zealand-20141223-12cxlj.html

Australian dollar on track to dip below parity with New Zealand

Daytr
24-12-2014, 04:47 PM
I think what we are seeing in the Aussie economy i'e dramatic slowdown, we are yet to see here as the collapse of the commodity boom & capex spend is already hitting Australia, whereas the dairy price for instance won't hit until next year. I think the RBNZ rate rises will prove to he a mistake & they will need to reverse them in 2015. Auckland property is being fueled by offshore influences & immigration & higher interest rates hardly affect them.

Daytr
24-12-2014, 04:53 PM
I've just picked up some Aussie on the cross.
Could be bottom pinching, but then again I've pinched a few Aussie bottoms my time & its been quite a rewarding experience. ;-)

JBmurc
24-12-2014, 07:20 PM
I still find it hard to believe we have a rockstar economy ...more like a fake rockstar ....Chch rebuild our great driver ...while the rest of NZ pays inflated housing insurance to fill the losses the International Insurance majors have been hit with ...

NZD stronger than AUD what a joke the AUD banks our a biggest leaders in turn taking NZD profits back to AUD and also they our a biggest creator of NZD .....When mr Key wants to borrow another 100mill he goes to ANZ commercial bank etc not "kiwibank" ...so our debt is really AUD
so if RBA puts rates up we as a nation plays not the other way round .....

NZ to AUS exporters will get absolutely shafted if we hit parity

BFG
30-12-2014, 08:48 AM
Everyone seems to be repeating the parity mantra now. Received no less than 3 articles yesterday stating that it was more or less a given now. I take this as a contrarian indicator of epic proportions. Either way I'm happy :)

Hoop
30-12-2014, 09:15 AM
Sorry BFG for not responding quicker..I haven't had much time lately to view ST posts...and I've just found this one I should respond to.

Referring back to my previous chart.. the TA Targets after the breakout is approx 0.955 for the channel breakout and ~0.97 for the broadening pattern. The trading targets aren't resistance points, they are just points or lines in the sand that suggest there's a ~70% chance of the NZ$ reaching that point after the breakout as long as there are no strong resistances in the way...The broadening wedge pattern target has a strong resistance point in the way...so it would be a much less than 70% chance,,,therefore not a useful target point...and the TA target focus would be on the ~0.955 (the point where Technical Traders may offload [sell])


However it not quite "blue sky" yet...I'm working off an interactive chart* so the figures and dates might not be entirely accurate but it says.. back in Jan and March 2014 the previous double tops (just under 0.95) showed how powerful that historic resistance (~July 1995) was to break...With NZ$ breaking that point recently, will it now be a strong support point??..Theoretically Yes...and provide a much less buy in risk area..
To reach blue sky (assuming since NZ$ free market status) the NZ$ has to break above the ~0.958 * area (Dec 5th 2005)..If the previous historic resistance before that was a guide then reaching "blue sky" could be a difficult hurdle to jump..

If blue sky is reached, there is no existing resistances, so chances of reaching parity would be much improved ...At 1.00 (parity) I would expect there to be a psychological boundary (resistance) area


Everyone seems to be repeating the parity mantra now. Received no less than 3 articles yesterday stating that it was more or less a given now. I take this as a contrarian indicator of epic proportions. Either way I'm happy :)

Really!!!.......(NZ$ has entered "blue Sky Territory")

BFG
30-12-2014, 09:42 AM
Really!!!.......(NZ$ has entered "blue Sky Territory")

Even soaring eagles can drop as fast as a plummetting elephant when gravity takes over ;)

Valuegrowth
01-01-2015, 01:49 PM
I think what we are seeing in the Aussie economy i'e dramatic slowdown, we are yet to see here as the collapse of the commodity boom & capex spend is already hitting Australia, whereas the dairy price for instance won't hit until next year. I think the RBNZ rate rises will prove to he a mistake & they will need to reverse them in 2015. Auckland property is being fueled by offshore influences & immigration & higher interest rates hardly affect them.

“I think the RBNZ rate rises will prove to be a mistake & they will need to reverse them in 2015. Auckland property is being fuelled by offshore influences & immigration & higher interest rates hardly affect them”

I agree with this. Now Australia wants to see lower exchange rate to prop up their economy. If NZD appreciate more than AUD or if we see parity, it can affect local export industry and tourism industry badly. New Zealand already lost export competitiveness for some industries due to higher NZD.

However, both AUD and NZD should depreciate against USD sharply specially toward second half of 2015. In addition, just like we saw money inflow into AUD and NZD sooner than later we may see money outflow from both AUD and NZD. I also don’t think that the carry trade position for European and Japanese investors will be attractive hereafter due to uncertainty situation, potential for depreciation of AUD and NZD and the slowing both Australia's terms of trade and commodity prices. Finally, any speculative leaving in long positions could lead to free fall in AUD and NZD.

My ideas are not a recommendation to either buy or sell any security, commodity or currency. Please do your own research prior to making any investment decisions.

JBmurc
01-01-2015, 07:30 PM
I see the iron ore prices had a bounce ...with talk round of major re-stocking early in the new year ....the lower AUD/USD has got to be helping many miners along with the lower energy costs.....

winner69
07-01-2015, 05:37 AM
Did I just see .96 plus, yes I did

Things still in NZD favour over the AUD - like relative economic performance etc

Go you good thing

BFG
07-01-2015, 06:14 AM
Did I just see .96 plus, yes I did

Things still in NZD favour over the AUD - like relative economic performance etc

Go you good thing

You sure did, .9613 at typing. Dairy auction up 3.6% overnight. Looks like milk may finally be finding a bottom. I read an article the other day about iron ore and milk usually running in parallel pricewise. Spooky!

Hoop
07-01-2015, 09:45 AM
Even soaring eagles can drop as fast as a plummetting elephant when gravity takes over ;)
Looking out of my NZ$ technical Window ..Wow!! a nice day and the eagles are soaring high enjoying the " Blue Sky" as they do...

Hang on!!...whats that falling out of the sky:scared:...Hmmm..Maybe that Arthur's Pass earthquake wasn't due to a shifting fault line

BFG
07-01-2015, 12:49 PM
Looking out of my NZ$ technical Window ..Wow!! a nice day and the eagles are soaring high enjoying the " Blue Sky" as they do...

Hang on!!...whats that falling out of the sky:scared:...Hmmm..Maybe that Arthur's Pass earthquake wasn't due to a shifting fault line

Moose are pretty dumb animals sometimes. ;) All my Kiwi savings are in terrible danger of being converted in to 'Roos very soon.

Make hay while the sun shines and all that :D

Daytr
09-01-2015, 09:32 PM
I re-entered the fray today, going long Aussie @ 1.0380.
I assume you guys heard the RBNZ talking about deflation in NZ due to fuel prices?
Put that together with dairy prices & the US about to raise rates, I think the NZD is going to fall & fall hard.

stoploss
09-01-2015, 09:53 PM
I re-entered the fray today, going long Aussie @ 1.0380.
I assume you guys heard the RBNZ talking about deflation in NZ due to fuel prices?
Put that together with dairy prices & the US about to raise rates, I think the NZD is going to fall & fall hard.
I think that was the BNZ economist, not the RBNZ .
http://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/news/article.cfm?c_id=3&objectid=11384026

BFG
15-01-2015, 01:36 PM
Anyone have any ideas why the Kiwi has plummetted 1.2 cents vs the AUD and looks set for even more declines today? 94 is about to fall hard. Charts looking pretty ugly for that parity party!

winner69
15-01-2015, 01:48 PM
Anyone have any ideas why the Kiwi has plummetted 1.2 cents vs the AUD and looks set for even more declines today? 94 is about to fall hard. Charts looking pretty ugly for that parity party!

Maybe the surprise better unemployment number in Aust to the traders excited

Just noise in the big picture? Until tomorrow's news whatever that might be

macduffy
15-01-2015, 01:50 PM
Anyone have any ideas why the Kiwi has plummetted 1.2 cents vs the AUD and looks set for even more declines today? 94 is about to fall hard. Charts looking pretty ugly for that parity party!

Aust unemployment rate for December was better than expected. That's normally enough to get the reef fish moving!

A few beats behind winner, as usual!

BFG
15-01-2015, 02:18 PM
Maybe the surprise better unemployment number in Aust to the traders excited

Just noise in the big picture? Until tomorrow's news whatever that might be

Ahhhh, knew I was missing something! Yes, should just be a minor event if this is the catalyst. I suspect traders are trading in "riskier" currencies like NZD and AUD for "safer" plays like YEN & USD as the market once again turns risk off and punishes all commodities.

winner69
16-01-2015, 07:40 AM
Anyone have any ideas why the Kiwi has plummetted 1.2 cents vs the AUD and looks set for even more declines today? 94 is about to fall hard. Charts looking pretty ugly for that parity party!

Seems all back to normal today

Millions made and lost yesterday, but in reality not very productive is it

BFG
16-01-2015, 03:39 PM
Seems all back to normal today

Millions made and lost yesterday, but in reality not very productive is it

Probably got the blood racing for a few people at least! Volatility is getting much worse for this cross. Expect it to keep up the higher it tries to push.

winner69
16-01-2015, 06:23 PM
Some fallout from the Swiss actions

No doubt many more around the world

You never know what's around the corner

http://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/news/article.cfm?c_id=3&objectid=11387361

BFG
21-01-2015, 10:39 AM
Drought conditions affecting NZD/AUD cross?

Fonterra is playing a dangerous game to try and get the auction price up by decreasing volumes by 8%, following a 10% decline two weeks ago. When commodity players start to store product hoping for a better price latter it usually does not end well...

Back below .9350 as I type as well.

BFG
28-01-2015, 03:32 PM
NZD smashed down a cent today as Australian inflation meets targets of nearly 2% vs NZ's near deflation. RBA may think again about cutting rates, while RBNZ may have no choice if this continues...

Hoop
29-01-2015, 10:08 AM
http://i458.photobucket.com/albums/qq306/Hoop_1/nzdaud28012015.png (http://s458.photobucket.com/user/Hoop_1/media/nzdaud28012015.png.html)

winner69
29-01-2015, 10:36 AM
http://i458.photobucket.com/albums/qq306/Hoop_1/nzdaud28012015.png (http://s458.photobucket.com/user/Hoop_1/media/nzdaud28012015.png.html)

Where to from here then Hoop

Xerof
29-01-2015, 10:43 AM
It should retest the flag breakout levels again, but they most likely hold for a reversal

BFG
03-02-2015, 04:12 PM
RBA just cut rates:

http://www.businessinsider.com.au/aussie-dollar-gets-destroyed-after-rba-cuts-rates-2015-2

While the Kiwi is now tanking vs all major currencies, bar the AUD of course, this may force Wheeler's hand in also resorting to cuts to the OCR (and may be seen as the perfect chance by him to keep intervening here...)

Joshuatree
03-02-2015, 04:19 PM
Saw the kiwi leap from re 93.5 to 94.1c just now ; thought it may have been dairy prices jumping.

winner69
03-02-2015, 04:28 PM
Gee that Stevens guy isvavwimp

I was on Roubini's side ....no cut when not necessary

stoploss
03-02-2015, 05:59 PM
Gee that Stevens guy isvavwimp

I was on Roubini's side ....no cut when not necessary

Why is he a wimp ? There were only 7/29 economists picking this for today , so he was bold to go against the majority ...... IMHO he is still behind the curve , should have gone 50 bps .

winner69
04-02-2015, 08:05 AM
Why is he a wimp ? There were only 7/29 economists picking this for today , so he was bold to go against the majority ...... IMHO he is still behind the curve , should have gone 50 bps .

Traders got it right eh, they be happy.

Last year some time 100% of economists / commentators called unemployment to go down ....it went up.

winner69
04-02-2015, 08:08 AM
RBA just cut rates:

http://www.businessinsider.com.au/aussie-dollar-gets-destroyed-after-rba-cuts-rates-2015-2

While the Kiwi is now tanking vs all major currencies, bar the AUD of course, this may force Wheeler's hand in also resorting to cuts to the OCR (and may be seen as the perfect chance by him to keep intervening here...)

Hope Wheeler is astute enough to look through the my short term myopic view of most commentators to see that in the medium term inflationary pressures still exist and not make cuts. He shouldn't haven't teased the punters by saying either up or down, most only listen to what they want to hear

Hoop
04-02-2015, 11:50 AM
Hope Wheeler is astute enough to look through the my short term myopic view of most commentators to see that in the medium term inflationary pressures still exist and not make cuts. He shouldn't haven't teased the punters by saying either up or down, most only listen to what they want to hear

Yes the dangers in listening and bowing to short term myopic views and opinions from knee jerkers, media commentators, and pseudo-economists....It seems the media seem have temporarily lost their focus on the dangers of our property market bubble...
Wheeler and Co have continuously kept the media and markets well informed of the economic state of play and the Bank's intentions ...so the sudden Market reaction to the Aussi easing is disturbing...

Yes ..I agree with Roubini too.
His article mentioned NZ too (http://www.marketwatch.com/story/what-the-market-hacks-fail-to-grasp-about-anemic-growth-2015-02-02?page=1)

winner69
04-02-2015, 12:23 PM
Seems to be taking a prudent line Hoop

http://www.stuff.co.nz/dominion-post/business/65765829/RBNZs-Wheeler-says-rates-still-on-hold-for-some-time

Danger is if he holds off increases for too long and is forced into having several in a short period

winner69
04-02-2015, 12:29 PM
Almost back to 95 cents

Traders be happy ...all this action n a lot of noise

Wonder what ths afternoons news will bring in th way of turmoil

winner69
05-02-2015, 08:08 AM
Parity party back on?

Way they talking down Australia economy it must be shot as ....... and NZ roars ahead

Better put the bubbly back on ice .....it it worthy of a celebration

Hoop
05-02-2015, 10:17 AM
Where to from here then Hoop

Sorry about the 8 day delay:)..but I thought I'd wait and use time as my accomplice in crime...Ahem..The NZD was always going to bounce off the strong double support .9280(S&R and EMA100) ;);):D:cool:
Yep looking good again...I'll see if I can get those parity party invitations out of the rubbish bin

http://i458.photobucket.com/albums/qq306/Hoop_1/nzdaud%2003022015.png (http://s458.photobucket.com/user/Hoop_1/media/nzdaud%2003022015.png.html)

Xerof
05-02-2015, 10:31 AM
It should retest the flag breakout levels again, but they most likely hold for a reversal

Well, it could only get within spitting distance of a full retest, and reversed at that cluster of resistance in early Dec around 9260. Just shows the strength in this cross, medium term.

Wheelers clarification to the over-reaction to his 'interest rates up or down' comment seems to have assisted

For E-wavers (thinking dumbass), that last up/down move looks good as a 1 and 2, so maybe we're now in a major upthrust for 3? I don't spend any time following FX these days, so it's always just a visual from me.

Oh, sorry hoop, I have interfered again :), but I see we have the same view

Hoop
05-02-2015, 11:41 AM
.....Oh, sorry hoop, I have interfered again :), but I see we have the same view

Its great to see your input Xerof ...keep up the interfering :):)........try Winner he's good for interfering on too ;):D

Daytr
06-02-2015, 03:39 PM
A bit of uncertainty with quite likely a change of PM next week.
If Turnbull gets the nod, I would be surprised to see the Aussie rally.
Might be just a short term thing, but I think he would be seen as quite a positive for the economy over what they currently have.
It would be interesting if Turnbull would also be the Finance minister or who that would be.
Julie Bishop, I must say I'm not a fan, but might be marginally better than the Abbott.

winner69
12-02-2015, 01:16 PM
Goodness gracious .... almost 96 cents at the moment

Whats going on BGR

winner69
13-02-2015, 03:44 PM
http://www.stuff.co.nz/business/industries/66156354/big-dry-could-drive-nz-dollar-higher

Big dry could drive NZ dollar higher

Daytr
13-02-2015, 04:42 PM
We have a strong housing market & construction sector particularly in Auckland & Christchurch.
Massive infrastructure builds around roading etc as well & that is helping underpin the NZ growth story.
'Then you have farming & don't forget oil, but those impacts will take a while to filter through & obviously lower oil impacts exports but is a catalyst for the economy as a whole with cheaper fuel.
The other factor is NZ's interest rate & foreign money coming in to invest in the sectors mentioned above & cheap dairy farms.
I'm just wondering if we see a blowout in the Kiwi at some stage, i.e. it gets stronger against the AUD.
But history is telling me this is a very good level & I think we have been lulled into a bit of a false sense of security in regards what the impact of those farm prices will mean for the NZ economy in the next 12 months.

Wolf
13-02-2015, 04:52 PM
http://www.stuff.co.nz/business/industries/66156354/big-dry-could-drive-nz-dollar-higher

Big dry could drive NZ dollar higher


"If we're going to get a new high I suspect it will be on Monday, Tuesday or Wednesday," Kelleher said.
Love this comment :t_up::lol:

Daytr
13-02-2015, 05:11 PM
Typical economist no idea how the real world actually works!
It might get pushed higher but not for those reasons.
Higher dairy prices wont be felt for a year!
Is money going to rush in on that?
Whereas any decline in production starts hurting exports a lot quicker.
At the last bank I worked at I had to review all our economists publications just make sure that any of their assumptions had some factual basis on what actually goes on the real world of commodities.

winner69
14-02-2015, 08:38 AM
What an absolute load of dribble...... Fonterra are already auctioning less product to hopefully get higher prices.
In the real world of farming economics higher prices for less production is not anymore beneficial than ave production for ave prices.
Currently dairy production is down because of the Dry and Fonterra payout is way down..... how the hell can a continuation of this push the kiwi $ higher
I am confident our overall GDP will take a hit on a lasting Dry......... and we know what that will do for the $.
Government tax take is going to take a big hit on a lasting Dry.
Story written by by a reporter taking advice from fark wits that sit behind a desk all day thinking about what they will have for lunch to much.

Snaps - There is little (almost non-existent) correlation between annual changes in the ANZ Dairy Product Price Index and annual changes in the NZD/AUD (correlation coefficient of 0.09)

Day to day / hour by hour gyrations caused by traders who get excited by any sort news is a different story ...they only want to see short term movements anyway

Valuegrowth
14-02-2015, 11:06 AM
Milk prices could stay low while having volatility. Unlike those days both emerging and frontier markets are also trying to increase their milk production including multinational companies in those countries such as Nestle. What we are seeing now is adjustments of asset prices globally. We can clearly see falling prices in over valued commodities such as oil, gold, mild etc and in overvalued currencies such as AUD and NZD etc. This process could last until 2017/18. There are cycles for assets. What will be next assets to fall? Despite lower commodity prices some global consumers are not getting any benefits. Still they pay same prices for milk, transportation including prices for air tickets. Finally any bubble will end up with burst. This applies to stock, commodity, currency and property market.

http://www.farmersjournal.ie/indian-milk-production-beats-eu-174748/

Indian milk production beats EU

http://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/news/article.cfm?c_id=3&objectid=11335119

Long period of low dairy prices predicted because of global surplus

http://www.theguardian.com/business/2015/jan/24/dairy-farmers-warned-milk-prices-fall-further

Dairy farmers warned: milk prices have further to fall


Both NZD and AUD should fall further. One NZD or AUD could trade less than 0.50 cents of USD by 2016 or in the second half of 2015.

My ideas are not a recommendation to either buy or sell any security, commodity or currency. Please note that I do not endorse or take responsibility for material in the above hyper-linked sites. Please do your own research.

Daytr
15-02-2015, 02:30 PM
Spot on Snapiti! LOL. Well I suppose we will see this week if that ASB guy is right, even by coincidence.
What's people's thoughts on the Kiwi marching higher against the Aussie?
Depend on cricket results or something more tangible? haha
Seriously NZ economy right now is a bit out of step with a lot of other economies such as Europe & Australia with a lot of growth being fueled by what I would suggest is unsustainable government policy on immigration, but also infrastructure spends.
I agree tax take is going to take a huge hit on the dairy price & drought conditions.
Key has promised a balanced budget something he has failed to deliver so far although he got close in the last year.
I would suggest that is unlikely to happen this budgetary year due to a slide in tax income so does that mean government spending is reigned in on the likes of infrastructure or do they perhaps look at some sort of tax to cool the Auckland property market?
I think if they have a budget blowout they are in political trouble as this has been Key's best weapon to date, the economy.


What an absolute load of dribble...... Fonterra are already auctioning less product to hopefully get higher prices.
In the real world of farming economics higher prices for less production is not anymore beneficial than ave production for ave prices.
Currently dairy production is down because of the Dry and Fonterra payout is way down..... how the hell can a continuation of this push the kiwi $ higher
I am confident our overall GDP will take a hit on a lasting Dry......... and we know what that will do for the $.
Government tax take is going to take a big hit on a lasting Dry.
Story written by by a reporter taking advice from fark wits that sit behind a desk all day thinking about what they will have for lunch to much.

Daytr
16-02-2015, 01:27 PM
I just got hit on my bid this morning so we will see how good this ASB guy is LOL.
Got filled at a similar level about a month ago & it moved back into the 1.07s, so lets see if its a rinse & repeat!

Xerof
17-02-2015, 04:03 PM
http://www.stuff.co.nz/business/money/66294327/nz-dollar-tipped-to-pass-a97-cents

Jeez, they've got to stop interviewing Tim after he's been for a long lunch.......

Good luck for your trade Daytr, you're against the trend, so be nimble

Daytr
17-02-2015, 06:09 PM
Haha, well I do like someone who puts their proverbials on the line by making a call, although it does appear to be a bit to precise to be realistic and despite the logic that's behind it. I think what he's really saying to be fear is the headline dairy price number if good will send the Kiwi higher & it probably would as the fundamentals such as drought etc will take a while to filter through.

Daytr
17-02-2015, 06:10 PM
I also wonder what position he may have on?
Perhaps is desperate for a win! haha

Daytr
18-02-2015, 07:48 AM
Well according to the radio this morning we did see a record high against the Aussie. My system says the low was 1.0342 & I thought we got about 10bps lower 2 nights ago? Anyway hardly moved. Have we now seen the highs? ;-)

Daytr
18-02-2015, 08:22 PM
Could this fruit fly thing hurt the Kiwi? I they find more, its certainly possible.
Lets hope for our grower's sake its a rogue that has been found & there aren't others that can breed.

Daytr
19-02-2015, 08:18 AM
US backing away from raising interest rates. Not sure what this means for the Aussie/Kiwi cross?
Both should strengthen you would think.
New highs last night I think.
Will we break 98c?

Daytr
20-02-2015, 08:14 AM
Yep there Superfund policy is fantastic & is a huge boost to markets with an incredible amount of funds under management to invest.
So far the ASB guy has got it right, lets see if that was indeed a top. Its pulled back a little.
I'm out of the money & almost got stopped out last night, but survived & its looking a bit better now.

Daytr
20-02-2015, 07:40 PM
Yeah you would think those tax receipts are going to decline from the dairy industry in particular.
No doubt they will sell of State Housing & make a book profit to get a surplus!

Daytr
21-02-2015, 09:11 AM
Nice move last night, finally in the money! Maybe this ASB guy was onto something! Always loved the ASB ! LOL

Daytr
21-02-2015, 10:35 AM
Yeah I can't see it either, but you never know I suppose. I would suggest they will be conservative.

Daytr
24-02-2015, 10:10 AM
I jobbed my position out yesterday at 1.0425 as I want to reset lower, so trying to do that now. ;-)

Daytr
24-02-2015, 10:22 AM
Hey Snapiti, when is Fonterra supposed to confirm that payout number?


In this case they have no choice but to be conservative

Daytr
24-02-2015, 01:24 PM
Ahh see it was released today & maintained at $4.70 as expected.

I'm back in at a better level, so will now sit tight for a bit.
Just got an update from NAB with a view that the Aussie at 78c is fairly valued.
Interesting & in comparison to the Kiwi is it under valued?
I obviously think so. ;-)

Daytr
25-02-2015, 08:57 AM
Yeah a bit odd, I heard a guy being interviewed on National Radio, maybe it was just a view.

Nice move overnight, very happy with the posi! ;-)
I can see the Kiwi at some point getting on a slippery slope & moving substantially against the Aussie.

Daytr
05-03-2015, 09:26 AM
Kiwi strengthening again on the cross. I'm accumulating AUD here, been a great trade to date. I have the feeling the RBNZ may have been intervening on the cross, but its just a guess. I can't imagine they see this kind of strength as a good thing.

Daytr
05-03-2015, 02:26 PM
As expected Aussie retail sales came in better than expected & the Aussie got a good boost & saw the cross back to 1.0350.
Happy days & took profit.
Will look again to re-enter once things quieten down.

Daytr
07-03-2015, 08:37 AM
Should have held on as missed most of the run. Doh
Was short Aussie overnight on the highs though, so that paid well in compensation. ;-)

winner69
23-03-2015, 09:10 AM
NZD still creeping up. They say a new all time high was reached over the weekend.

That parity to AUD getting ever so closer.

Beagle
23-03-2015, 05:48 PM
NZD still creeping up. They say a new all time high was reached over the weekend.

That parity to AUD getting ever so closer.

Yep sure is and there's some interesting disparities opening up in the vehicle market between the two countries.
For instance some of you will have seen Hyundai heavily promoting their new Genesis luxury car which is priced here at $99,990 fully loaded with options as the importer has decided Kiwi's are too dumb to decide for themselves whether they need the extra option packs. Meanwhile over in Australia the distributor has taken a different view and the Genesis is available from $A60,000, already very well specified and there are two options packs to chose from if you really want to go ballistic..but the $60K price includes spec that makes it a very well specified vehicle by most people's standards.

Whether any Hyundai is really a true luxury car or worth $100K here is an open question in my opinion so this is just an illustration of some of the many opportunities. see www.carsales.com.au and sort more for yourself.

dingoNZ
26-03-2015, 08:09 AM
Great time to be topping up my ASX holdings :D

winner69
31-03-2015, 05:24 AM
Goodness gracious well into the 98s .....essentially parity

BFG must be hurting. Where is BFG when we need him for further guidance

winner69
31-03-2015, 08:28 AM
Westpac will now only give you NZ$1 for each AU$1 you sell them via a telegraphic transfer in a retail transaction according to their online tools

Ha ha

lemonski
02-04-2015, 06:48 AM
Probably a dumb question, but why does the market seem to be ignoring all the poor results coming out of the GlobalDairyTrade auctions? Overnight there was a 10.8 drop in global dairy prices, yet the NZD hasn't moved. Reading about the NZD and AUD reaching parity, one of the factors mentioned in the performance of the AU economy was the bottom had dropped out of iron ore prices. Yet NZ's "iron ore" doing poorly doesn't seem to have any effect.

winner69
02-04-2015, 09:32 AM
Probably a dumb question, but why does the market seem to be ignoring all the poor results coming out of the GlobalDairyTrade auctions? Overnight there was a 10.8 drop in global dairy prices, yet the NZD hasn't moved. Reading about the NZD and AUD reaching parity, one of the factors mentioned in the performance of the AU economy was the bottom had dropped out of iron ore prices. Yet NZ's "iron ore" doing poorly doesn't seem to have any effect.

It all depends what sort of mood traders are in mate and what story they want to get excited about this minute.

Over time as pointed out earlier on this thread there is little (even slightly negative) correlation between global dairy prices and the NZD/AUD

The driver of the cross rate over time is the relative economic performance between the countries (and interest rate differentials)

lemonski
02-04-2015, 03:24 PM
It all depends what sort of mood traders are in mate and what story they want to get excited about this minute.
Over time as pointed out earlier on this thread there is little (even slightly negative) correlation between global dairy prices and the NZD/AUD
The driver of the cross rate over time is the relative economic performance between the countries (and interest rate differentials)

Thanks, make sense. If dairy prices are continuing to fall though, wouldn't that be putting downward pressure on the interest rate, rather than the next move upward as has been talked about? Surely the economy can't remain insulated from falling dairy prices forever.

dingoNZ
02-04-2015, 03:50 PM
Thanks, make sense. If dairy prices are continuing to fall though, wouldn't that be putting downward pressure on the interest rate, rather than the next move upward as has been talked about? Surely the economy can't remain insulated from falling dairy prices forever.


I've tended to notice that the dairy prices are more of a 'lead' and ht economy tends to catch up 4-6 months after said events occur. Just from my historic observation

stoploss
02-04-2015, 04:50 PM
Thanks, make sense. If dairy prices are continuing to fall though, wouldn't that be putting downward pressure on the interest rate, rather than the next move upward as has been talked about? Surely the economy can't remain insulated from falling dairy prices forever.
It's all to do with the relative differential in interest rates as well.RBA more likely to cut interest rates sooner than the RBNZ ( if they do , or more likely on hold for a year ) .
Dairy prices may be falling , but major commodity prices that Australia are a big exporter of have plummeted ..... this is going to take a couple of years to work its way through the system , for inefficient miners to go out of business along with some mining service companies etc ......
Until the wipeout of these occurs the bottom won't be in and the Aussie CCY will be going nowhere ( but down ) IMO .

dingoNZ
03-04-2015, 06:02 AM
RBA expected to cut rates next week, should see some pressure off the AUD, we will retract a bit should they drop rates this week, but parity looms in the not too distant future.

dingoNZ
03-04-2015, 08:01 AM
if they decide to stay at the current level (2.25%) then I would expect some weakness in the AUD. I believe a rate cut is already factored in at current levels. With the FOB Iron Ore cost retreating one would imagine the RBA will be forced to cut rates to offset the falling commodity prices. Interesting week ahead.

Xerof
03-04-2015, 03:17 PM
I can smell Parity on your breath Winner :D

winner69
03-04-2015, 03:23 PM
I can smell Parity on your breath Winner :D

Why not 1.05 .....that be good

My view much the same as six months ago - there will be short term spikes and tumbles (the noise you see) but with an upward bias and I would not be surprised to see it over parity later in the year (I did say once hat parity might be it)

Wolf
03-04-2015, 03:38 PM
RBA expected to cut rates next week, should see some pressure off the AUD, we will retract a bit should they drop rates this week, but parity looms in the not too distant future.

If the RBA cuts rate's next week shouldn't it lead to the NZD increasing against the AUD?
As lower interest rates cause a depreciation in the exchange rate.

Xerof
03-04-2015, 03:58 PM
I think I once mentioned 1.10 as a target, but lets do it a step at a time......

Yes, a rate cut by RBA is probably being priced in as we speak

winner69
03-04-2015, 06:14 PM
I've tended to notice that the dairy prices are more of a 'lead' and ht economy tends to catch up 4-6 months after said events occur. Just from my historic observation

Dingo, you might like to read this piece. Dickens is the best independent economist in NZ. If you had access to his subscription based reports as well you would get more in depth and fascinating insights into a raft of things. This one is free.

http://www.sra.co.nz/pdf/DairyPricesAug14.pdf

If busy this extract answers your question -

The right chart above compares the annual % change in the ANZ NZD Dairy Commodity Price Index with annual GDP growth. The overall correlation is -0.09, which isn't statistically different from zero (i.e. there is no correlation between GDP growth and dairy product price inflation). If we assume it takes around a year for changes in dairy product prices to filter though to spending, which is roughly in line with the left chart above, the correlation is -0.2 (i.e. the old drip-feed theory doesn't work either).

Since 1992 there have been seven significant falls in dairy product prices including the latest fall and in only one of these was there are recession and this was when the financial crisis struck in 2008/09 and had a major negative impact on a number of things.

Interestingly, between 1992 and 2007 the correlation between dairy product price inflation and annual GDP growth was -0.45 (for info on what correlations measure and how to interpret them use the link below). The inverse relationship is evident in the right chart above. All of the five significant falls in dairy product prices prior to 2008 coincided with above average economic growth. If the economists and media took the time to review the historical experience they should be greeting the latest fall in dairy product prices with enthusiasm in terms of what it might imply for economic growth. Clearly falling dairy product prices don't drive above average economic growth, but this is one of those wonderful counterintuitive situations that economics throws up from time to time.

Beagle
04-04-2015, 12:38 PM
99.65 cents today based on trading in the overseas FX markets overnight.
Parity Party preparations pending.

JBmurc
05-04-2015, 12:03 PM
Not looking forward to my next pay check :(

Daytr
06-04-2015, 12:48 PM
A couple of comments regards previous posts. Interest rate differential is a key driver & government policy is making it difficult for the RBNZ. Adding fuel to the fire of the Auckland property market certainly won't help. The dairy price weakness is yet to filter through & Winner69, the problem with historical data is that it is historical. Previous comparisons don't allow for the huge up swing in production or price such that the impact of this last boom & bust will be like no other. The NZ economy will not just shake off $6Bln plus of revenue being wiped out. How long before exporters start screaming for help? One of the issues Australia had was their ccy stayed stubbornly high long after commodities had collapsed due to QE & zero interest rates in major economies. And now look what is happening in Australia. If it wasn't for immigration the housing market would collapse as well. Seeing an similarities to NZ?

winner69
06-04-2015, 02:13 PM
A couple of comments regards previous posts. Interest rate differential is a key driver & government policy is making it difficult for the RBNZ. Adding fuel to the fire of the Auckland property market certainly won't help. The dairy price weakness is yet to filter through & Winner69, the problem with historical data is that it is historical. Previous comparisons don't allow for the huge up swing in production or price such that the impact of this last boom & bust will be like no other. The NZ economy will not just shake off $6Bln plus of revenue being wiped out. How long before exporters start screaming for help? One of the issues Australia had was their ccy stayed stubbornly high long after commodities had collapsed due to QE & zero interest rates in major economies. And now look what is happening in Australia. If it wasn't for immigration the housing market would collapse as well. Seeing an similarities to NZ?


Jeez daytr ......back to 70 cents later this year based on that?

Parity will be a distant dream then

Daytr
06-04-2015, 06:04 PM
The view I posted is in regards the latter half of this year when I think we will see the impact of lower dairy on the economy. Anything can happen in the short term. For the sake of the economy we better see a lower ccy, otherwise things will get a hell of a lot worse. We are a export led economy, if the ccy doesn't cushion the blow of lower commodity prices as it has in the past due to having the highest interest rates in the Western World then watch out. This is what happened in Australia & the RBA did everything possible to drive their ccy lower and after a very stubborn delay its worked, but probably too late to avoid their economic slow down & potential recession.

winner69
07-04-2015, 08:53 AM
Daytr, i think your comments spooked the market ......the NZD is falling this mornings......almost below 99 cents

dingoNZ
07-04-2015, 09:07 AM
Daytr, i think your comments spooked the market ......the NZD is falling this mornings......almost below 99 cents


wait until 4.30pm.... I think we'll see 0.998+

stoploss
07-04-2015, 03:32 PM
wait until 4.30pm.... I think we'll see 0.998+

Not today ......

dingoNZ
07-04-2015, 03:36 PM
Not today ......

0.9827, rates HELD. As you were chaps

blackcap
08-04-2015, 03:09 PM
0.9827, rates HELD. As you were chaps

Looks like parity may be a while off. Its interesting they are now discussing this on breakfast tv. I think the more plebs talk about it the less likely it is it may occur. BUt that aside, one thing I do not understand. Everyone (generally speaking here) is saying how bad the Australian economy is. And the mining sector is suffering yes. But my younger brother in Sydney works in commercial carpet laying and he has never been busier. Anecdotal I know but I cannot juxtapose the two without asking is it really that bad in Australia?

Corporate
08-04-2015, 07:49 PM
Looks like parity may be a while off. Its interesting they are now discussing this on breakfast tv. I think the more plebs talk about it the less likely it is it may occur. BUt that aside, one thing I do not understand. Everyone (generally speaking here) is saying how bad the Australian economy is. And the mining sector is suffering yes. But my younger brother in Sydney works in commercial carpet laying and he has never been busier. Anecdotal I know but I cannot juxtapose the two without asking is it really that bad in Australia?

One thing that worries me about Australia is the housing market. I've have been hearing stories from Sydney that people are borrowing upwards of $700k at LVRs as high as 97%. Absolutely scary!

JBmurc
08-04-2015, 08:14 PM
Looks like parity may be a while off. Its interesting they are now discussing this on breakfast tv. I think the more plebs talk about it the less likely it is it may occur. BUt that aside, one thing I do not understand. Everyone (generally speaking here) is saying how bad the Australian economy is. And the mining sector is suffering yes. But my younger brother in Sydney works in commercial carpet laying and he has never been busier. Anecdotal I know but I cannot juxtapose the two without asking is it really that bad in Australia?

Not all the mining sector is stuffed many of the ASX gold miners are making record profits as i'm sure many ASX miners are as there commodity prices in AUD are giving them some major profit margins(costs down also) ,,also with the Iron ore Coal & Energy sectors under so much pressure adding to major job losses ...Oz.labour rates have fallen ..

Here in so called rockstar economy the export backbone is under major pressure... yet as building/property industry (thanks to cheap debt/ chch rebuild) is booming we are told we are far better off than Aussie(last I read we have one of the worse debt to household wealth in the western world) ..Auckland is the second most expensive city in the world to incomes to own a property ....

Bonuses it's great for import's from the likes of Aussie Cheap.. lamb beef seafood anyone ? then of course kiwis and other nations boosting Aussie tourism over the likes of NZ..

stoploss
09-04-2015, 09:46 AM
we are very close to a major collapse of NZ third largest industry.
The chart below shows how the international price of logs has tumbled in the first few months of the year.
Margins are now at levels that if they do not pick up many forest owners will stop logging.
Of course forestry is no different to any other commodity in which major corporate forest owners will keep logging just for cash flow to satisfy the bank.
see what a collapse of our 3rd largest industry will do to the AUD/NZ cross.

http://futures.tradingcharts.com/chart/LU/

3rd largest export maybe , but surely not the 3rd largest contribution to GDP etc .

JBmurc
09-04-2015, 10:04 AM
Yes ....pretty dire ... I'm really hoping later this year we have fallen but below 90c ...not really all that confident that our Gov gives a toss..while property/consumers are booming

"Mr Key acknowledged many exporters were not happy with the situation but encouraged them to continue to invest and drive productivity. New Zealand firms were doing well on the international stage, he said"

Well Mr key how do fishermen and other exporters that have 90%+ exports to Aussie drive productivity/investment if our profit margins are dropping 50-60% from 20yr averages because of the high NZD ? Its pretty simple you only have a set amount of Quota to catch by law ? you have rule of law on how and where you can fish and standard of F.V and costs ...so really just paying your workers less is the true only way to improve productivity ? maybe importing slaves from third world country ? ...

stoploss
09-04-2015, 11:20 AM
When your economy relies heavily on exports to balance the books and your 1st and 3rd largest exports are in very poor shape you can be assured all area's of GDP will eventually be effected.
Just take a look across the ditch and how they are being effected by low commodity prices.
It just so happens that the fall off in our big export commodities (dairy and wood) came later than coal,iron ore,copper and oil did for Aussie.
But the result will be the same.

yep fair enough.

winner69
09-04-2015, 11:49 AM
When your economy relies heavily on exports to balance the books and your 1st and 3rd largest exports are in very poor shape you can be assured all area's of GDP will eventually be effected.
Just take a look across the ditch and how they are being effected by low commodity prices.
It just so happens that the fall off in our big export commodities (dairy and wood) came later than coal,iron ore,copper and oil did for Aussie.
But the result will be the same.

Australia GDP doesn't look too bad

The headlines and the stories don't seem to fit the data

Wolf
09-04-2015, 09:53 PM
I finished converting to AUD the other day, much more opportunities on the ASX.
Short term while parity and beyond is still possible, in my opinion it will drop back down near the end of this year, and if not certainly in the long term.

dingoNZ
10-04-2015, 08:07 AM
I finished converting to AUD the other day, much more opportunities on the ASX.
Short term while parity and beyond is still possible, in my opinion it will drop back down near the end of this year, and if not certainly in the long term.


As have I, I've been over weighting my ASX holdings the past month or so, remember the average NZD/AUD cross rate is 0.84...

blackcap
10-04-2015, 08:59 AM
Doing the same thing here when purchasing stock.. looking to Australia first... swings and roundabouts, it will go back to .85 at some stage