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Valuegrowth
03-01-2014, 09:37 PM
Global markets are down. Some markets such as Nikkei225, New Zealand 50 gross index and Karachi KSE100 are up. Both Vietnam VN-index and Sri-Lanka All share index are flat. So far European stocks are little changed and it is look like they are going to have their day today. In the commodity market gold, Sliver, copper and zinc are up. Very interesting. Is this something to worry about?

My ideas are not a recommendation to either buy or sell any security, commodity or currency. Please do your own research prior to making any investment decisions.

Valuegrowth
05-01-2014, 07:56 PM
Canadian stock market came down on Friday. Hong Kong stock market slumped more than 2%. Not a good day for energy sector especially for oil. Cattle futures rose. It was nice day for Gold and sliver. Ag markets mixed on Friday morning. Some markets, sectors,stocks and commodities are resilient globally. It could be different picture next week. Have a great week!

My ideas are not a recommendation to either buy or sell any security, commodity or currency. Please do your own research prior to making any investment decisions.

Valuegrowth
06-01-2014, 06:10 PM
Asian market fell today. So far among Asia Pacific region markets such as Vietnam, Laos and Korean markets are up marginally. At this time of writing other markets such as New Zealand, India, Sri-Lanka, Malaysia and Singapore are marginally down. Both Chinese and Japanese markets are not doing well today. Investors could have another opportunity in the Asian pacific region. Nikkei 225 could rebound again strongly at least another 10%. Lot of analysts were very bearish on Japanese market in the past and they were talking about Ex-Japan in the past. Some badly perform stocks in 2013 could outperform Asian markets in 2014.

My ideas are not a recommendation to either buy or sell any security, commodity or currency. Please do your own research prior to making any investment decisions.

Valuegrowth
07-01-2014, 10:53 AM
Asia pacific Region and European markets were either sluggish or fell down yesterday. Some of the Exceptions are: UK, Estonia, Morocco, Korea, Pakistan, Philippines, Laos, Thailand, Ghana, Botswana, Iceland, Kenya, and Vietnam stock markets. The FTSE 100 index closed at 6730.7 a gain of just 0.06%

Mexican and Canadian market also didn't have a good day either. On the other hand USA market marginally went down. Dow Jones transportation average is also down.

There could be volatility in all types of markets including commodity and currency market. Overall some markets could end up with positive trend in this week.

Intermediate Trend is our friend.

My ideas are not a recommendation to either buy or sell any security, commodity or currency. Please do your own research prior to making any investment decisions.

Valuegrowth
07-01-2014, 09:58 PM
We can see mixed trends in Asian Pacific markets today. European markets are advancing. Surprisingly Mongolian market is down. Frontier markets such as Kenya, Morocco and Sri-Lanka is having a strong up trend today. Bulgaria and Austria too are having a strong uptrend. So far not a good day for both Greece and Ireland markets. One of the star performers Pakistan market is flat today.

Germany is the game changer in the European Economy. Their unemployment has declined in November according to the Nuremberg-based Federal Labour Agency. In the mean time China has imposed new controls on shadow-banking industry. Still some global markets have more legs. Not a good day for AUD. Both cattle and wheat futures climbed. Moreover energy sector has some life and precious metals sector is showing some weakness.

There are positive and negative factors in global markets. We could see short term volatility in commodities and currencies. Overall trend is up for some markets, sectors, stocks, currencies and commodities.

My ideas are not a recommendation to either buy or sell any security, commodity or currency. Please do your own research prior to making any investment decisions.

Valuegrowth
09-01-2014, 07:28 AM
I thought to give some ideas about global markets. I will give more analysis on Australasian market including individual stocks and sectors once I learn more about this region.

It was a good day for Asian pacific region yesterday. There was a strong uptrend in markets such Japan, Hong Kong and frontier Sri-Lanka. Even markets such as Singapore and Philippine did well. New Zealand Market too ended up with positive territory. It was mixed in European, African and Middle East region. Markets such as Greece and Austria outperformed other markets in the region by having strong up trend. In the mean time so far USA market is having minor fluctuation. Both DOW Jones transportation average and NASDAQ is up. MU is very active. BAC is also not that bad. TSN a chicken company is flat today. Not a good day for FB.

As I said before still global markets have their legs. Some markets and sectors could have strong bull markets in 2014 and 2015. Some markets and sectors could have correction in 2014.

My ideas are not a recommendation to either buy or sell any security, commodity or currency. Please do your own research prior to making any investment decisions.

winner69
09-01-2014, 08:36 AM
which markets will have a strong bull run in 2014?

Valuegrowth
09-01-2014, 11:52 PM
It was not a good day for Asian Pacific markets today. Exceptions are: markets such as New Zealand, Sri-Lanka, Mongolia and Pakistan etc. They ended up a day with positive territory. European markets are advancing again. We are seeing volatility in markets.

Following were some of the best performing markets in 2013.

US – Nasdaq index
Venezuela- Caracas Stock Exchange
Japan – Jasdaq index
Iceland – OMXI All Share
Zambia – Lusaka Stock Exchange
Ireland – Irish Stock Exchange
Greece – Athens Exchange
Argentina – Mercado de Valores
Pakistan – Karachi Stock Exchange
Nigeria – Nigerian Stock Exchange

I am bullish on stocks markets in Germany, Morocco, Sri-Lanka, Bangladesh, Estonia, Austria etc in 2014. Still Pakistan market has leg and could expect correction just like Philippines market. Remember both Pakistan and Philippines were two of the best performing markets in the world in 2013. Still there could be strong up trend in few African and Middle East regions such as Morocco and UAE. Some of the star performers in this region were Nigeria, Kenya and UAE in 2013. Among developed world markets both DOW and S&P 500 have more room to go up although I expect some correction. I see prospects in Germany, Greece and Japan as well. Bull could continue in Greece as well. USD could become bull currency in 2014 and 2015. I am slightly bullish on Indian and Chinese markets too. Even Australians market could give some decent return in 2014.

My ideas are not a recommendation to either buy or sell any security, commodity or currency. Please do your own research prior to making any investment decisions.

winner69
11-01-2014, 07:51 AM
There you go Winner. He's bullish on Morocco's stock exchange, and Estonia too.

So Sparky all we need to do is find the winners on both these exchanges

I like the look of ME - Marrakesh Express in Morocco

You any fancies on Eastonia exchange?

winner69
11-01-2014, 09:48 AM
Beer and Cement are the two best bets in emerging and frontier markets, I have been told.

Good guidance there Sparky

Saku is Eastonia's biggest brewery but it is owned by Carlsberg. Beer consumption gone from 74 litres per head in 2004 to 81 litres per head so the Eastonians like their beer

Looked at ME in Morocco again ....the head honcho Crosby is some guy. Been around for a while .....through the lows and highs but seems to be a high at the mo

BIRMANBOY
11-01-2014, 09:31 PM
All onboard the train....all onboard the train...along with Nash and Young working the Stills.
Good guidance there Sparky

Saku is Eastonia's biggest brewery but it is owned by Carlsberg. Beer consumption gone from 74 litres per head in 2004 to 81 litres per head so the Eastonians like their beer

Looked at ME in Morocco again ....the head honcho Crosby is some guy. Been around for a while .....through the lows and highs but seems to be a high at the mo

Valuegrowth
18-01-2014, 04:16 PM
If I am correct Estonia invented Skype. Estonia is the 132nd smallest country in the world yet it is one of the top internet lovers in the world.

Among Asia pacific market Pakistan, Sri-Lanka and Vietnam had strong up trend during last six days exception is Sri-Lanka had a minor correction on Friday. Both Mongolia and Hong Kong market were also up on Friday. Very interesting. In Europe markets such as UK, Germany, and Austria were resilient on Friday. Estonia and Iceland markets did well. Ghana had a very good day on Friday. Not a good day for S&P 500. This situation could change during next week. Both USD and Gold up. I believe Intermediate trend for stock markets could be different from one area to another area. In other words some markets could have strong up trend and some markets could have some sort of correction or volatility. Despite some setback in global stocks markets some individual stocks maintained their uptrend. Some of the top winners on Friday were Visa Inc, American Express, Admiral Group, Glencore Xstrata, LXS: GR, Mitsubishi Motors, Fujikura Ltd, Korea Green paper, Don Won Fisheries, DIL:NZ and GMT:NZ

In the meantime Ireland’s credit rating was restored to investment grade by Moody’s Investors Service since the debt crisis erupted in 2009. Deutsche Bank AG (DBK) is also going to withdraw from participating in setting gold and silver benchmarks in London. It is following Investment banks such as JPMorgan Chase & Co. and Morgan Stanley on cutting back in some commodities.

My ideas are not a recommendation to either buy or sell any security, commodity or currency. Please do your own research prior to making any investment decisions.

Valuegrowth
25-01-2014, 06:45 PM
It is going to be very interesting next week. What a week for global stock markets. Friday was not a good day for many markets exceptions are markets such as Tanzania, Sri-Lanka, Vietnam and UAE which had uptrend. Markets such as Bulgaria, Botswana, Ghana, Kenya, Saudi Arabia, China, Mongolia, Philippines and Taiwan were resilient on Friday. In the meantime South American markets were in downtrend.

If we analyse global markets we could see few frontier bull markets in 2014 and 2015. Globally current situation could create another opportunity for intelligent investors. There could be valuable sectors and stocks in countries such as USA, Germany, UK, India, China, Malaysia, Indonesia, New Zealand and Australia. Some of the top gainers in the global markets on Friday were:

MSFT,PG:US,BDSI:US,RSA:LN,FRSE:LN,OMH:AU,PRU:AU, AOR:NZ, SEA:NZ

I am slightly bullish on undervalued global commodities stocks now. Some commodities could have strong uptrend and some commodities could go down further. In the currency market Aussie dropped below 87cents. Some Asians currencies such as Won, Malaysian ringgit, Indian rupee and Indonesian rupiahs fell. The Turkish lira plunged and South Africa’s rand tumbled. USD number one bull currency in the world could advance further. Both NZD and AUD could go down further.

Let markets to fall or go up. Mr Market will decide where to go. It is time to identify coming bull markets, sectors, stocks, commodities and currencies.

My ideas are not a recommendation to either buy or sell any security, commodity or currency. Please do your own research prior to making any investment decisions.

winner69
25-01-2014, 07:12 PM
Morocco bourse ME - Marakesh Express still seems pretty popular and in demand

Have you looked at them yet Marketwinner

Valuegrowth
25-01-2014, 09:00 PM
Winner69

Not yet. I particularly like to follow food, beverages, tourism and commodity related sectors there. I want to see how easy or difficult to open an account there. Recently when I was trying to reach Philippines market I found their process as very efficient and simple. I found few food and beverages companies there such as BRASSERIES DU MAROC (Beverages), OULMES (Beverages), DARI COUSPATE and COSUMAR (Food producers & Processors). If the process is complex I don’t like to proceed. Kind regards

Valuegrowth
26-01-2014, 02:12 PM
http://www.cnbc.com/id/101352982

Exotic markets few talk about, but probably should

Please note that I do not endorse or take responsibility for material in the above hyper-linked site.

Valuegrowth
04-02-2014, 05:10 PM
The IMF expects Mongolia to be the fastest-growing economy in the world over the next decade.We can see some funds are flowing into frontier markets such as Sri-Lanka, Qatar, Nigeria and Bangladesh. Pakistan market became one of the best markets in the world in 2013 and still it has a leg. Vietnam and UAE market too did well in 2013. On the other hand we didn’t see any meaningful rally in both Sri-Lankan and Bangladesh markets in 2013 except in few selected stocks. One positive factor in Sri-Lankan market is their interest rates are falling. As a result of this their stocks are more attractive than bonds and treasury bills now. Still I am learning about some markets.

According to following link Milford Fund is more excited about Frontier markets. It is very interesting.

http://www.odt.co.nz/news/business/290186/frontier-markets-gathering-pace

Frontier markets gathering pace

My ideas are not a recommendation to either buy or sell any security, commodity or currency. Please do your own research prior to making any investment decisions. Please note that I do not endorse or take responsibility for material in the above hyper-linked site.

Agrarinvestor
05-02-2014, 07:42 AM
We can see very interesting discussions here. Thank you. ;)

Valuegrowth
06-02-2014, 06:04 PM
Thank you Agrarinvestor for your comment.

Market corrections, volatility, pullback, sideway are part of stocks market journey and nobody can stop this. These types of events create great opportunely for some market players.

It is normal to have market volatility, sideway market, biggest one day drops, biggest strong uptrend etc time to time in any market. Despite some of the biggest market drops in global markets later they have rebounded strongly. How do we face successfully to minimize some risks involved in markets? One way to do is to identify some future winners before others. These types of companies will have less attention from majority market players including analysts as they like to follow popular stocks and indexes. For example eight years back we had XERO and majority avoided this wonderful company. Those who did home work considered it as a hidden gem. When any company become popular everybody will follow it and many will write research reports and they will upgrade the stock again and again. There could be new companies at the early stage of development. They can become leaders of tomorrow.
Companies start as a small and later they become big. New Zealand market could have some promising companies. It is same in other developed, emerging and frontier markets. Little bit of hard work and study could lead to identifying next starbuck. When compare with other developed markets, still New Zealand market is strong. Recently Japanese market came down by more than 4% in single day. On the other hand New Zealand market outperformed all other developed markets though it had minor fall on that particular day. We should not forget it is getting higher dairy and meat prices in the global market now. Some say emerging markets are risky. For me any market is risky. Despite some risks emerging stocks, commodities and currencies are very cheap now.

In every market there are some growth stories. For example huge population in emerging and frontier markets could create great demand for protein products in the coming years. Some multinational consumer staples companies such as NEST and Unilever already have established their businesses in frontier and emerging markets. In addition there are well managed cash rich companies in these frontier markets in some sectors. I believe Consumer staples, internet, infrastructure, some export and selected banking counters could do well in Asia in the coming years and coming decade. Finally some companies in developed world such as New Zealand, Australia, USA, Germany and Netherlands could have export opportunities in Asian region as they are not in a position to produce some products and commodities fully.

It is very simple. It is wise to target some sectors in USA, UK, Germany, New Zealand, Australia and frontier and emerging markets to get some return in the coming years and coming decade. In other words it is time to identify outstanding companies having beautiful growth story.

I will write more about global markets later. Have a nice day!

My ideas are not a recommendation to either buy or sell any security, commodity or currency. Please do your own research prior to making any investment decisions.

Valuegrowth
07-02-2014, 08:07 PM
It was a beautiful day for USA and European markets. Both Estonia and Morocco markets didn’t do well. Asia pacific region too is having a good day today. Small frontier markets such as Pakistan, Sri-Lanka and Vietnam are down today at this time of writing. There could be different type of mega developments in some sectors, commodities in the coming decade. As I said before we should not ignore any market. Even there could be opportunity in Chinese market. Chinese people will eat more meat and drink more tea, coffee and milk in the coming years and decade. New Zealand can supply high quality milk and meat to Asia in the coming decade. Chinese could create demand for baby products as well. Once we see lower NZD, New Zealand could become one of the vibrant economies in the world. Remember some analysts and market players talked negatively on European region in the past. They also talked about collapse of USD. Later we had some of the major uptrend in stocks there. Even Greece and Spain market had good rally. USD my darling currency is shining now. Those days many market players avoided markets such as Greece, Spain and Pakistan etc. Even now there are undervalued markets, sectors, stocks, currencies and commodities globally. Some frontier markets are very attractive now. Today we can see some weakness in emerging market currencies. This situation could change sooner than later and they will adjust to their real value sooner than later. Some experts make bigger mistakes than others. They are dead wrong in predicting direction of stock markets, currencies and commodity prices.

My ideas are not a recommendation to either buy or sell any security, commodity or currency. Please do your own research prior to making any investment decisions.

Valuegrowth
08-02-2014, 12:08 PM
It was some frontier markets which had some resilient to some of the biggest drops recently. However both developed and emerging markets have outperformed the frontiers markets during last two days. It is very interesting. What a day was for USA stocks. It was a day for Nikkei 225 as well. Some of the top winners were Boeing and ATHN: US and 9501: JP

In any market there are different type of market players such as hedge funds, high net worth individuals, professionals, day traders, short term players, long term investors, investment banks, different type of financial instrument players, small players, insurance companies and other financial institutions etc. Some are for long term horizon and some don’t have any strategy. Some can move money in and out quickly and it can affect for some stocks in the short run. Those with good experience and skills have done well in emerging and frontier markets. Some of the funds which exposure to Asian markets such as Aberdeen, Franklin Templeton Investment Funds, and IFC have long term view on these markets and they don’t act like grasshoppers. They have done their serious study on markets. There are few global frontier emerging funds including some foreign partners also there for long tern serious business. I have seen even top investors, investment banks and other funds have invested and traded in these emerging and frontier markets. .

If we analyse global markets almost everybody make mistakes. Either they will sell too early and buy late. Sometimes some market players could become panic suddenly. On the other hand intelligent market players know what they are doing. For example there were huge sell off in South Asian markets before 2009. I can remember even some hedge funds liquidated their funds. After those selling we saw one the best bull markets in Sri-Lanka in 2010 and 2011. Similarly Indian sensex went up from around 12,000 to over 20,000 levels in 2010 after fire sales. When we analyse some developed markets such as USA and UK there were fire sales in some bank stocks before 2009. I was following CITI Group more than BAC. Fire sales and panic create opportunities for intelligent long term players. I also can remember some Japanese housewives put their valuable money in AUD when it was going down and they lost heavily. Later they missed the biggest rally in AUD during last couple of years. Who knows they may buy now. Markets are full of risks and returns. In some situation it is better to forget short term volatility in some markets to reap long term benefits.

My ideas are not a recommendation to either buy or sell any security, commodity or currency. Please do your own research prior to making any investment decisions.

Valuegrowth
10-02-2014, 06:22 PM
At this time of writing china stocks rises one month high. They are having nice day today. Asian and Russian stocks have become very attractive now. Some short sellers probably have lost betting against S & P 500. Surprisingly New Zealand market ended in negative territory today. At this moment both Pakistan and Sri-Lanka markets also in red. Emerging market crisis is just a talk. Declines in stocks, bonds and currencies are a buying opportunity. At the moment some small markets are having troubles due to short term events. They too will go up sooner than later. Today’s some undervalued red markets also are a buying opportunity.

There were so many crisis such as banking crisis, credit crisis and property crisis etc during last couple of years. Still we saw bull markets in crisis hit countries such as UAE, Pakistan, Japan, UK and USA. Similarly tapering is not the end of the world. It is good for the global economy in the mid and long term. Just like other crisis speculation on tapering also create opportunities even in emerging markets. Crises are opportunities for intelligent market players.

Where can we expect bull market in 2014 and 2015?

Finally could we expect bull market in Bangladesh after underperforming other markets in Asia Pacific region in 2012 and 2013?

http://www.dsebd.org/index.php

Could we expect bull market in Sri-Lanka too in 2014 and 2015?

http://www.ft.lk/2014/02/07/2014-turning-p...michael-preiss/ (http://www.ft.lk/2014/02/07/2014-turning-point-for-lankas-equity-market-michael-preiss/)

2014 turning point for Lanka’s equity market: Michael Preiss

What about Estonia?

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2014-01-24/e...k-finances.html (http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2014-01-24/estonia-s-credit-rating-affirmed-by-s-p-on-gdp-outlook-finances.html)

Estonia’s Credit Rating Affirmed by S&P on GDP Outlook, Finances

What about Indian market testing all time high again?

http://online.wsj.com/news/articles/SB1000...291821969478830 (http://online.wsj.com/news/articles/SB10001424052702304137304579291821969478830)

Indian Stock Market Set to Climb in 2014

What about Pakistan? Will it repeat the bull into 2014?

Will Philippine market test their all time high again? Will it repeat the bull into 2014?

http://www.interaksyon.com/business/80293/...bsp-holds-rates (http://www.interaksyon.com/business/80293/ph-stock-market-returns-above-6000-mark-after-wall-st--gains-bsp-holds-rates)

PH stock market returns above 6,000-mark after Wall St. Gains, BSP holds rates

Mark Mobius experienced investor is also bullish on some emerging and frontier markets.

Have a nice day!

My ideas are not a recommendation to either buy or sell any security, commodity or currency. Please do your own research prior to making any investment decisions. Please note that I do not endorse or take responsibility for material in the above hyper-linked sites.

skid
12-02-2014, 10:38 AM
Agree that tapering is good for the market mid to long term--but IMO it will cause pain in the meantime when it really gets going.
I believe you would have to have a long term plan, or when the turn comes (if it does) cash up and wait.
The markets have been on life support for a long while now.
There may well be an addiction problem that may involve a ''market reset'' or even possibly a (god forbid) one off tax on assets.
Time for caution

Valuegrowth
12-02-2014, 08:32 PM
Thank you Skid for your comment.

Developed markets in Asia Pacific region such as Hong Kong, New Zealand and Australia had a good day today and there are lot of opinions on theses sudden uptrend.

Emerging markets and frontier markets in Asia also are having nice day today exception are Malaysian and Sri-Lankan markets. Both markets are down at this moment. It is very interesting. When all Asian markets are up, few markets such as Pakistan and Sri-Lankan markets etc had either volatility or down trend during last couple of days. I feel like studying specific behaviour pattern relevant to selected markets that I am following. Asian consumer staples story is in intact. We could see mega trends in this sector in Asia in all types of markets such as developed, emerging and frontier world in the coming years.

In the meantime European stock futures rose. In commodity market there are some supports for energy based commodities. It is also very interesting.

So far Federal Reserve Chair Janet Yellen is doing a great and marvelous job.Definitely she is going to follow market friendly policy and this is good for global stock markets. This doesn't mean overvalued markets continuously could go up in the coming years. Some expect that they could delay the tapering. Tapering could benefit some industries more than others in Asian pacific region.

According to following link they don’t have preset course for tapering. They could have gradual plan and who knows in some period they could stop tapering whenever they see some weakness in the economy.

http://www.foxbusiness.com/economy-policy/2014/02/11/yellen-strongly-supports-feds-monetary-strategy/

My ideas are not a recommendation to either buy or sell any security, commodity or currency. Please do your own research prior to making any investment decisions. Please note that I do not endorse or take responsibility for material in the above hyper-linked sites.

Valuegrowth
15-02-2014, 02:25 PM
What a beautiful Friday was for DOW, S & P 500, and my favourite NASDAQ. Now the Standard & Poor’s 500 Index is within 10 points of its all-time high. Nasdaq is up for sixth straight day. It looks like just like people like to eat chicken they like to taste some soup as well. Consumers could taste more and more hot beverages too in the coming decade. Campbell soup Company is doing well. Simple people like simple companies. It is not too big to fall. Both Hyatt Hotels Corp and Campbell soup became market movers. It is good to see new market movers in markets. Other wise market could become boring. We could see new market movers time to time in all types of markets such as developed, emerging and frontier markets in the coming years. It is time to identify new market movers before others. It was not a Good Friday for Japanese stocks. In Indian market Tata motors rose more than 3%. In New Zealand Sky City, Telecom, Trade me and OceanaGold stocks etc outperformed other stocks on Friday. We could see some sudden surge in Chinese stocks.

As I said before some pullbacks are opportunities and we should not ignore any market. Because when the bull starts we could miss the train. Many missed the train in the USA, Greece, UAE, UK, Germany, New Zealand, Australia, Philippines and Vietnam etc. Some trains are closer to their current destination and next destination could begin after 2015.These days some frontier markets are having pullbacks. In the meantime I still maintain that we could expect some sort of correction in overvalued markets including stock market in UAE in 2014. Therefore some sort of rotation is very important. There are plenty of undervalued markets, sectors, commodities and currencies in the world. These are great opportunities and some could have life time opportunities. I believe some frontier and emerging stocks, currencies and their commodities are very attractive on valuations now. Mid term and long term players could benefit lot.

Most of the market players will follow today’s hot stocks and nobody wants to do study on out of favour hidden gems. We could gain some capital gain by identifying correct markets, sectors, currencies and stocks before others. Markets, commodities, stocks and currencies never stay in the same place. Normally many will avoid sick ones. They will go behind hot ones. When sick become healthy it could become too hot and all will go behind it. Many invest through funds and ADRs in emerging and frontier markets although there are opportunities of direct investment in firms or sectors in those economies. Direct investment has flexibility to pick stocks. On other hand funds invest only stocks known by foreigners. So they miss some of the outstanding companies in markets. 10 years back XERO was a hidden gem. Not many funds wanted to try this beautiful company with beautiful story. Profitable investments can be made by taking a long term investment perspective. Any business takes time to establish and expand.

Just like human beings we should identify personality of the market that we are following. Different market and different stocks have different personality. If we apply correct strategy while having patience and discipline then we are already right in our first stage. In commodity market we can see some sudden surge in silver. Volatility could be normal in the coming years. Still asset prices could go up in the coming decade.

My ideas are not a recommendation to either buy or sell any security, commodity or currency. Please do your own research prior to making any investment decisions.

Valuegrowth
19-02-2014, 07:03 PM
Just like we had some opportunities in emerging and developed markets sell off we could have some great opportunity in some undervalued frontier markets now. Some frontier markets in Africa and Asia are having pullback and volatility now. It is very interesting. It looks like after strong rally both Pakistan and Vietnam markets are searching for new direction. We could see some correction in 2014 in above two markets as well. In the meantime Chinese stocks are shinning. AUD is hovering around 90c. It is very interesting year for global stock, commodity and currency market in 2014. There could be opportunities and setbacks. At some point even we could see correction in developed markets. UAE market too is looking for direction now. Once we see correction in some developed markets, Will market players take some of their funds to Africa, Asia and South America? Will Brazil shine again? There are so many ways to analyse global markets. Value masters could hide in their great value businesses with great potential in the coming decade. In the meantime the Nasdaq Composite rose for an eighth straight session. NASDAQ too could have correction. In the long run it will shine never before. We can see mixed signals in commodity market. Oil has some short term support now. Soya bean prices could come down more than corn in 2014 and 2015. Beef prices could stay high in 2014. There is a possibility global tea and coffee output could come down in 2014 and 2015. The USA could produce more oil in the future. 2014 is a good period for grain elevators and meat producers. Countries such as New Zealand, Australia, Netherlands and the USA could benefit lot. Once we see lower NZD and AUD some industries could have rapid growth in Australasia.

My ideas are not a recommendation to either buy or sell any security, commodity or currency. Please do your own research prior to making any investment decisions.

Valuegrowth
23-02-2014, 01:09 AM
What a week of volatility for global markets? We also saw some sell off in stock markets. Now we are in the stage of volatility in all types of markets. These are normal events not only in stock markets but also in other markets such as commodity and currency market. As I said before volatility could become normal in the coming decade. Why do worry about volatility if you could find great businesses before others. We had credit crisis, banking crisis, property crisis, currency crisis and commodity crisis etc in the past. Didn’t markets recover later? Market volatility, pull backs, crash, correction or other types of crisis bring opportunity for other players. Latest noise is tapering. Markets could go down not because of tapering but because of market cycles, and other factors such as over valuation and panic etc. Even tapering is very good for certain industries including Asian export companies. In the meantime Chinese consumers bought over 20 million vehicles in 2013. It is the world’s second-largest auto market. Boeing expects to deliver 140 planes to China in 2014. . Not bad.

There are lot of noises in global markets. They say some top players are betting against S&P 500 and they love put options. According to some they want to forget emerging markets and should look for frontier markets because they are still rising. Some say frontier markets are very attractive. Not all frontier markets are rising. Even in frontier markets we cannot expect bull markets from each and every market at once.Those markets which had bull markets could have correction. Some could build their base before their great bull markets. Some frontier markets could have volatility and pull backs before their bull market. Some frontier markets could have bull markets instantly.

In the currency market, the pound had its biggest weekly decline against the dollar in three months. Meanwhile Italy’s 10 year government bonds advanced for a fourth week. I found following interesting article on NZD.

http://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/news/article.cfm?c_id=3&objectid=11204126

Inside Money: An Irish view of the NZ dollar

In commodity markets I just looked at some of the following forecasts. Corn prices could drop to an average of $3.90 a bushel in the 2014-2015 marketing year from $4.50 the previous 12 month. Soybean prices could average around $9.65 a bushel, down from $12.70 a bushel in 2013-2014, while wheat is seen averaging $5.30 a bushel versus $6.80 the previous year. Cotton prices will fall to 68 cents a pound, down from 76 cents in 2013-2014. Some are expecting grain prices to fall five year lows. According to latest forecast, soybeans, plantings should set an all-time high of 79.5m acres. Who’s right about corn prices? There is considerable difference of opinion about the prospects for future corn prices. According to the USDA projections that the average farm price of corn will be around $3.50 for the next five years. The current futures market indicates average corn price between $4.40 and $4.50 over the next four years. Other projections are very extreme and expect corn price below $ 2.80 for the next five years. More about other commodities, bull currencies and bull markets later.

Finally let us find new market movers, bull markets, bull sectors, bull commodities, bull currencies and bull stocks in the coming years in global markets. 2014 could be year of another opportunity. Have a nice week end.

My ideas are not a recommendation to either buy or sell any security, commodity or currency. Please do your own research prior to making any investment decisions. Please note that I do not endorse or take responsibility for material in the above hyper-linked site.

winner69
23-02-2014, 06:48 AM
Marketwinner

Would now be a good time to get some exposure to the Ukraine stockmarket

Seems to have rock bottom and only one way to go now .....up

Hoop
23-02-2014, 10:38 AM
Applying a buy & hold strategy with the Ukraine stockmarket index in 2007 kinda looks like a fail...eh?

http://www.tradingeconomics.com/charts/ukraine-stock-market.png?s=pfts&d1=19970101&d2=20141231

winner69
23-02-2014, 11:10 AM
I did say rock bottom hoop

Based on history (recent) could quadruple in a short time

Marketwinner - what you think

Valuegrowth
23-02-2014, 02:09 PM
Hello Winner69

You are very clever. When others are trying to downgrade and when they have political problems and economic crisis you are looking for opportunities. You are thinking out of the box. I know you can become one of the best market players in the world. All the best. Some crises are great opportunities for intelligent market players. I have not done much study on Ukraine market. Before we go to any market we need some study. Remember other long term investors and specific funds have done their home work. Some sell off are temporary. Rather than finding bottom of the market it is better to identify and study stages in markets, great value and future prospects etc. That also depends on the strategy. What about betting on Ukraine debt? Mark Mobius talked about Ukraine at the end of 2013.

Besides I would like to concentrate in few markets in Asia Pacific region now. I would like to deal with known devils than unknown devils in 2014. In addition, I love only specific sectors in few markets that I am following. They are going to have mega developments in the coming decade.

Basically I don’t pay much attention to these downgrades and upgrades. During last two years there were down grades for stocks in NASDAQ that I was following. They have gone up by more than 100% now. Beauty is after down grading, fundamental of some of the companies that I am following has improved vastly. It is going to improve further in the coming years. I would like to concentrate on few markets now. So that it will make me easy to manage my portfolio. My portfolio can last from one month to 10 years. In some case they can last beyond 20 years. When I find outstanding companies I will reduce or dispose my current holdings. We cannot measure performance of companies within one year. At least we should monitor six years. This is how and where we find more than 10 baggers. So we can forget volatility and noises in global markets. I am developing my strategy not to do anything to my stocks in the short run once I bought them. This where I make mistakes most. Therefore I have to improve my stocks picking strategy. I am not with current hot stocks and I am with future winners now. One thing once any frontier market become very bullish we cannot stop it. I reasonably expect very bullish March. Have a nice day!

My ideas are not a recommendation to either buy or sell any security, commodity or currency. Please do your own research prior to making any investment decisions.

Valuegrowth
01-03-2014, 04:14 PM
Intelligent market players could have opportunities in all types of markets provided they do home work. Global market behaviour in February was mixed. We saw volatility; sell off, some of the biggest one day drops and some of the biggest one day ups. Even some markets had all time high. Markets go up and down in stages. Some markets are closer to the top and some markets are about to begin their bull. When compare with developed and emerging markets frontier market performed poorly in February. Of course they had some volatility. Month of March could be different ball game.

If I am correct Chair Janet Yellen said the central bank may change its strategy for reducing asset purchases if they see weakness in the economy. She has very sensible and responsible approach to the global economy and markets. So far S&P 500 up 175 percentfrom a 12-year low. Not bad. Emerging market stocks advanced 3.2 percent in February, the first monthly gain since October. As I said before we should not ignore any market. Friday was a very good day for Asian pacific markets. We saw strong rally in developed, emerging and frontier markets there. Global stocks, bonds and commodities rose together in February for the first time in seven months. Asian stocks completed the first monthly advance since October. Sofar New Zealand market is doing well.

In the commodity market we can see some surge in some commodity prices due to short term factors. In the meantime the euro gained against 14 of its 16 main peers. NZD still has its short term strength due to short term factors. Sooner than later it could become one of the bear currencies in the world.

My ideas are not a recommendation to either buy or sell any security, commodity or currency. Please do your own research prior to making any investment decisions.

Valuegrowth
04-03-2014, 07:01 AM
Current situation could create another great opportunity. Global stocks fall yesterday. In the meantime Chinese stock market was a clear winner yesterday together with commodity market. In Asian pacific region stocks Markets such New Zealand, Pakistan and Thailand were resilient. Some frontier markets too were resilient globally. I believe some frontier markets could have some limelight in the near future due to new development.

Both Ukraine and Russian markets went down very badly. Ukraine crisis has taken seriously at least for the short run. I don’t think this will develop like crisis in Middle East. These are short term events. If war continues for the next five years to ten years still there could be great demand for some products including selected commodities.

We are seeing some surge in commodity prices due to short term factors. Even if we see some settlement to Ukrainian crisis still there could be opportunities in some commodities globally. We may see shortage or lower inventory in some commodities towards end of this year. As I said before we should not ignore any market and even some commodities.

In the currency market the Ruble went down more than 1 percent against the dollar. US dollar got some life again.

My ideas are not a recommendation to either buy or sell any security, commodity or currency. Please do your own research prior to making any investment decisions.

Valuegrowth
08-03-2014, 10:43 AM
Emerging markets hard currency debt was the best performing fixed-income asset class in February despite some political tensions in several countries, especially Ukraine and Russia. . Institutional investors are back in the business while retail investors that continue to exit emerging markets bond funds. I think EM FX, rates and credit have become cheap enough to attract interest from non-dedicated EM investors. Indian shares rallied to record highs on Friday. We cannot expect fully-fledged war between Russia and Ukraine. There was some relaxation in recent market tensions over Ukraine. Just like some investors and other market players who over reacted to India on Indian rupee and worries there, this time too they over reacted to the Ukraine situation. We saw temporary rise in prices of some commodities despite higher inventory level and expected higher supply in 2014. This situation created some opportunity for some market players. MSCI's emerging markets index is headed for the fifth straight week of gains. Indian markets posted their biggest weekly gain since early 2013. On the other hand picture was gloomier in emerging Europe.

South Asian region should do well in the coming months. Already Pakistan had one of the best bull markets in the world. Along with India, frontier markets such as Bangladesh and Sri-lanka too are looking for market direction now. In short some emerging and frontier markets in Asia especially south Asia should outperform other emerging and frontier markets in the coming months due to new development. Similarly there could be some opportunities in some sectors in developed markets. In the meantime the dollar climbed on Friday. Actually dollar rose to six week high versus Yen. Asian currencies too had the best week since September 2012. There is a speculation that the Federal Reserve will slow further stimulus cuts. We have to wait and see. Have a nice week end!

My ideas are not a recommendation to either buy or sell any security, commodity or currency. Please do your own research prior to making any investment decisions.

Valuegrowth
15-03-2014, 08:58 PM
We are seeing more volatility in all types of markets. Even in volatile markets some sectors, commodities, currencies, stocks and markets could outperform others. On Friday Indonesian market was a clear winner in the Asia and Pacific Region. It went up by more than 3%. Argentinean market in South America too had a good day. Markets in India, Pakistan and were steady. Nikkei fell more than 3%. There could be some bull markets in South Asia, South America and East Asia sooner than later due to new development.

We have to wait and see effects of increased OCR (The Official Cash rate) in New Zealand. There could be short term support for NZD. It also could affect export sector negatively if NZD stay high. Despite increase in interest rate still I maintain my bearishness on NZD. Sooner than later other developed markets too will increase their OCR. I believe interest rate policy could affect negatively or positively to the economy depend on the situation at that particular time. There are so many ways to control higher housing prices than making use of interest rate. If interest rates stay vey high in the short run we may see many mortgage defaulters. As a result of this scenario we may even see housing crisis in some countries. Because we should not forget about fragility of the housing market globally. In some situation interest rate could become mass of destruction.

In the Agri commodity market both corn and soya bean didn’t have strong support this week except wheat which had good support. Globally we could see more grain harvest in the second half of this year. Among commodity future contracts livestock futures are having less volatility and they are in a clear uptrend. Most of other commodities are having volatility and they are in down trend except sudden surge in few commodities due to short term factors. Despite short term Ukraine crisis Oil prices are weak.

In the meantime Ireland’s 10-year securities went up for a ninth week as the nation auctioned its first bonds since 2010.

My ideas are not a recommendation to either buy or sell any security, commodity or currency. Please do your own research prior to making any investment decisions.

SimonHouse
16-03-2014, 07:28 AM
I believe interest rate policy could affect negatively or positively to the economy depend on the situation at that particular time.

Forgive me for questioning your good intentions in providing us market updates, but how is this helpful to us? It actually says nothing at all.

Valuegrowth
16-03-2014, 06:50 PM
@SimonHouse

Thank you for your opinion and ideas.

SimonHouse
17-03-2014, 07:04 AM
@SimonHouse

Thank you for your opinion and ideas.

@Marketwinner (who else)

I was hoping I'd get more of an answer than that. You appear to be posting a lot of stuff that tries to be wise but is meaningless gibberish. How about some actual analysis rather than "Pakistan is up and things might change there"?

Valuegrowth
17-03-2014, 03:54 PM
We all know that there are business cycle, stock and marketcycles. Similarly at some point I expectcorrection in Pakistan market as well. Iwould like to discuss more about interest rate and interest swaps in the futureonce I learn more about it. I hope somebody might open a thread on OCR or on interestrate in the future. On valuations even some Chinese stocks are cheap now. We needto do some study to identify Undervalued markets, sectors, stocks, commodities,currencies and other assets globally.
My ideas arenot a recommendation to either buy or sell any security, commodity or currency.Please do your own research prior to making any investment decisions.

SimonHouse
17-03-2014, 09:41 PM
We all know that there are business cycle, stock and marketcycles. Similarly at some point I expectcorrection in Pakistan market as well. Iwould like to discuss more about interest rate and interest swaps in the futureonce I learn more about it. I hope somebody might open a thread on OCR or on interestrate in the future. On valuations even some Chinese stocks are cheap now. We needto do some study to identify Undervalued markets, sectors, stocks, commodities,currencies and other assets globally.
My ideas arenot a recommendation to either buy or sell any security, commodity or currency.Please do your own research prior to making any investment decisions.




yeah sorry I asked. you are posting a load of nonsense and empty phrases without any substance.

You can stop posting the final line about how your ideas are not a recommendation, you aren't actually posting any ideas. Just meaningless nonsense.

Valuegrowth
27-03-2014, 08:11 PM
I believe globally certain stocks have risen to absurd levels on the back of low interest rates specialty tech stocks. Certain tech stocks are extremely overvalued now. Despite overvaluation these stocks may not go down easily. We cannot predict how far they can go down once they start going down. Stocks could stay under pressure in some markets.

My ideas are not a recommendation to either buy or sell any security, commodity or currency. Please do your own research prior to making any investment decisions.

SimonHouse
28-03-2014, 02:33 PM
Which ones then? Globally there are a lot of tech stocks. You wouldn't like to narrow it down, perhaps?

Valuegrowth
30-03-2014, 07:21 PM
According to following link Asia Pacific is now the most undervalued region.

http://news.morningstar.com/articlenet/article.aspx?id=640171

Stock Market Outlook: Time to Play Defense

In a market leaning toward the overvalued side, investors must dig deeper to unearth buying opportunities.

Please note that I do not endorse or take responsibility for material in the above hyper-linked site. Please do your own research.

Valuegrowth
01-04-2014, 07:30 PM
http://www.nbr.co.nz/article/market-close-nz-growth-stocks-fall-investors-raise-cash-genesis-pacific-edge-xero-drop-bd-15

MARKET CLOSE: Growth stocks fall as investors raise cash for Genesis; Pacific Edge, Xero drophttp://www.nbr.co.nz/article/nz-dollar-may-fall-second-quarter-benefitting-winemakers-exporters-face-us-recovery-bd-15404Dollar may fall in second quarter, benefiting winemakers, exporters, in face of US recovery.Please note that I do not endorse or take responsibility for material in the above hyper-linked site. Please do your own research.

Valuegrowth
03-04-2014, 09:11 PM
Some stocks look vulnerable now specially overvalued tech stocks.

Finally will there be 10% to 20% correction? What about New Zealand market?

http://www.forbes.com/sites/mikehelveston/2014/03/20/how-to-prepare-for-the-next-stock-market-correction/

How To Prepare For The Next Stock Market Correction

My ideas are not a recommendation to either buy or sell any security, commodity or currency. Please note that I do not endorse or take responsibility for material in the above hyper-linked site. Please do your own research.

Valuegrowth
12-04-2014, 04:27 PM
Not only Nasdaq but also key Japanese index and major European indexes slid more than 1% on Friday. S & P 500 also had a worst week since January. Even commodity market hit badly on Friday. We saw weakness in agri, metals and energy markets on Friday. Valuation is the matter now. In the short run market may go down. In the long run market will go up. Stocks holding hedge funds too have come down. It looks like hedge funds have been forced to reduce their long positions. This could lead to further selling in stock and commodity futures markets in the coming weeks. As I said before this could be time to hide in attractive consumer staples globally. Consumer staples are ideal for all types of situations as long as we see great story, value and growth. Bad news for the market is good news for the dollar. Will this be reversal for both NZD and AUD? Is a larger downturn ahead for NZD and AUD? I reasonably think so.

http://www.usatoday.com/story/money/markets/2014/04/11/stocks-friday/7587759/

Stock plunge continues, Nasdaq drops below 4000

My ideas are not a recommendation to either buy or sell any security, commodity or currency. Please note that I do not endorse or take responsibility for material in the above hyper-linked site. Please do your own research.

winner69
12-04-2014, 04:37 PM
Moroccan market holding up well

And my old favourite Marakeesh Express reaching new highs ....wonder what management is n these days

Valuegrowth
12-04-2014, 05:12 PM
Hello winner69

You are right. You are very clever and very intelligent. Some small markets are up including Morocco. Few South and East Asian markets also are doing well including Indian market.Can we see rally in Chinese market next?

Have a nice week end!

Valuegrowth
14-05-2014, 07:31 PM
Few months back and in 2013 Pakistan market was one of the star performers in global stock markets. Market players didn’t’ pay much attention to some markets in Asia like India. In addition we saw heavy selling in emerging markets as a result of speculation on tapering. Wise intelligent market players took advantage in these types of situations and some emerging markets like India are having great run now. We may see strong up trend in few more emerging and frontier markets. We can see some downtrend in Vietnam market now. Though current bull market is intact in DOW, S,& P 500 and Nasdaq it is due for at least 10% correction. Overvalued tech stocks are more vulnerable. USD should start to go up especially in the second half of this year and we may see beginning of strong down trend for currencies such as NZD and AUD. These days Pound is rising against Euro. In addition to pound emerging currencies too are recovering now. In the mean time there could be some short term support for some commodities and some commodity prices could go down further when we see above average harvests and when inventory level improve further in the second half of this year.

http://qz.com/208437/indias-markets-are-having-a-pre-election-rally-but-its-foreigners-doing-the-buying/

India’s markets are having a pre-election rally, but it’s foreigners doing the buying.

My ideas are not a recommendation to either buy or sell any security, commodity or currency. Please note that I do not endorse or take responsibility for material in the above hyper-linked site. Please do your own research.

Valuegrowth
24-05-2014, 12:37 PM
Sooner than later we may have to apply “Be fearful when others are greedy” not only for overvalued stock markets but also for overvalued currencies such as NZD and AUD. Defensive is the best medicine in some period when everybody becomes too optimistic about assets that they are holding. Some will say this time is different. No it is not different. Actors may have been changed. But markets will repeat things in a different manner. Traders are speculating on the basis of short term factors such as weather and Ukraine crisis etc when they buy and sell stocks and commodities. We may see bigger sell of in overvalued stocks and commodities. The time of maximum pessimism is the best time to buy and the time of maximum optimism is the best time to sell. Five years back we had time of maximum pessimism. It is time to identify emerging stocks, commodities and currencies. I think smart money is preparing for at least 20% market correction in overvalued markets.

My ideas are not a recommendation to either buy or sell any security, commodity or currency. Please do your own research prior to making any investment decisions

Valuegrowth
31-05-2014, 07:27 PM
Dubai was one of the world's best-performing markets. The UAE and Qatar are now trading at a 40 percent premium to emerging markets in general, compared with a 50 percent discount a couple of years ago. Foreign investors have already started to decrease their exposure to these overvalued markets. Inflows appear to be continuing in the other frontier markets now. Indian market too could have correction during next 18 months or so. Bull markets are moving one place to another gradually. Similarly market corrections are moving from one place to another. Still there are opportunities in undervalued global markets and markets which are trading discounts to overvalued markets.

http://blogs.wsj.com/frontiers/2014/05/29/vietnamese-stocks-dived-as-china-clashes-spooked-domestic-investors/

Vietnamese Stocks Dived as China Clashes Spooked Domestic Investorshttp://www.arabtimesonline.com/NewsDetails/tabid/96/smid/414/ArticleID/206438/reftab/36/t/UAE--Qatar-bull-runs-may-end-with-MSCI-upgrade/Default.aspx

AE & Qatar Bull Runs May End With MSCI UpgradeForeigners Already Cutting Dubai Exposure: Data

My ideas are not a recommendation to either buy or sell any security, commodity or currency. Please note that I do not endorse or take responsibility for material in the above hyper-linked sites. Please do your own research.

SimonHouse
02-06-2014, 12:49 PM
Bull markets are moving one place to another gradually. Similarly market corrections are moving from one place to another. .
.

Wow - I never knew that could happen. Are you sure its true that markets differ around the world?

winner69
02-06-2014, 01:10 PM
Wow - I never knew that could happen. Are you sure its true that markets differ around the world?


Simon, probably just a seasonal migration

Glad they haven't got to Morocco yet......

Joshuatree
02-06-2014, 02:23 PM
Hi Marketwiinner; int in what defensive tactics you are currently employing; are you out of the mkt , focusing on selective sectors e.g. divi paying utilities, all /part in cash bonds fixed int gold etc. thanks JT

Valuegrowth
02-06-2014, 07:27 PM
Hi Marketwiinner; int in what defensive tactics you are currently employing; are you out of the mkt , focusing on selective sectors e.g. divi paying utilities, all /part in cash bonds fixed int gold etc. thanks JT

I prefer undervalued markets, stocks, commodities and currencies over overvalued markets, sectors, currencies and stocks now. For example I like to avoid markets such UAE and Pakistan now. I don’t stay out of market under any situation.Some markets are closer to top or around top. Other option is can we find stocks which are going to outperform in both bull and bear markets? Some will try defensive stocks and dividend champions. I particularly like consumer staples due to demand from Asia and Africa. For example Both Australia and New Zealand will have bigger market in Asia for their meat products. Even there will be demand for kangaroo meat. We may have some opportunities when we see attractive valuations in overvalued markets again.

I am reproducing what I wrote on 10th of February.

At this time of writing china stocks rises one month high. They are having nice day today. Asian and Russian stocks have become very attractive now. Some short sellers probably have lost betting against S & P 500. Surprisingly New Zealand market ended in negative territory today. At this moment both Pakistan and Sri-Lanka markets also in red. Emerging market crisis is just a talk. Declines in stocks, bonds and currencies are a buying opportunity. At the moment some small markets are having troubles due to short term events. They too will go up sooner than later. Today’s some undervalued red markets also are a buying opportunity.

There were so many crisis such as banking crisis, credit crisis and property crisis etc during last couple of years. Still we saw bull markets in crisis hit countries such as UAE, Pakistan, Japan, UK and USA. Similarly tapering is not the end of the world. It is good for the global economy in the mid and long term. Just like other crisis speculation on tapering also create opportunities even in emerging markets. Crises are opportunities for intelligent market players.

Where can we expect bull market in 2014 and 2015?

Finally could we expect bull market in Bangladesh after underperforming other markets in Asia Pacific region in 2012 and 2013?

http://www.dsebd.org/index.php

Could we expect bull market in Sri-Lanka too in 2014 and 2015?

http://www.ft.lk/2014/02/07/2014-turning-p...michael-preiss/ (http://www.ft.lk/2014/02/07/2014-turning-point-for-lankas-equity-market-michael-preiss/)

2014 turning point for Lanka’s equity market: Michael Preiss

What about Estonia?

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2014-01-24/e...k-finances.html (http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2014-01-24/estonia-s-credit-rating-affirmed-by-s-p-on-gdp-outlook-finances.html)

Estonia’s Credit Rating Affirmed by S&P on GDP Outlook, Finances

What about Indian market testing all time high again?

http://online.wsj.com/news/articles/SB1000...291821969478830 (http://online.wsj.com/news/articles/SB10001424052702304137304579291821969478830)

Indian Stock Market Set to Climb in 2014

What about Pakistan? Will it repeat the bull into 2014?

Will Philippine market test their all time high again? Will it repeat the bull into 2014?

http://www.interaksyon.com/business/80293/...bsp-holds-rates (http://www.interaksyon.com/business/80293/ph-stock-market-returns-above-6000-mark-after-wall-st--gains-bsp-holds-rates)

PH stock market returns above 6,000-mark after Wall St. Gains, BSP holds rates

Mark Mobius experienced investor is also bullish on some emerging and frontier markets.

Have a nice day!

My ideas are not a recommendation to either buy or sell any security, commodity or currency. Please do your own research prior to making any investment decisions. Please note that I do not endorse or take responsibility for material in the above hyper-linked sites.

Valuegrowth
03-06-2014, 07:02 PM
I found very interesting link. We have to wait and see how global markets are going to go in the second half of this year.

http://www.livetradingnews.com/fresh-records-daily-narrow-breadth-light-volume-hummmm-52863.htm#.U41_4_mSzlQ

Fresh Records Daily, Narrow Breadth, Light Volume, Hummmm

couta1
07-06-2014, 07:08 AM
She's all Bullish on the US markets overnight, can our icy tech/biotech stocks get a slight deicing come Monday? I doubt it but let's be optimistic:cool:

Valuegrowth
07-06-2014, 04:42 PM
Among tech and bio tech sector, analysts are bullish on GW Pharmaceuticals plc (ADR). We have to wait and see how Xero is going to perform in the market in the short run. According to some market analysts Sweden, Canada, UK, Switzerland, U.S and Germany markets are negative because the stock markets in these countries are trading above historical means. For developing countries, Indonesia and Mexico are negative. On the other hand some market players like Japan, U.S., select Asian countries and the U.K. Some are expecting higher returns from Russia and China too.

Still I believe there are opportunities in individual stocks having value and growth though overvalued markets have some risk of correction especially towards second half of this year. Meat companies are not as exciting as biotechnology or social media stocks. But there are great opportunities. Even there are meat wars in ETF. SAFM listed poultry company in the USA was one of the clear winners in the meat sector and in the broader stock market there. Globally listed meat stocks could have strong run in the coming months. There are listed meat companies with attractive valuations in other parts of world as well.

In the currency market The Canadian dollar traded at almost a one-month low The dollar gained against the euro after positive job reports. Finally it is time to identify emerging stocks, currencies and commodities. It is also time to pay attention to valuations. Rich valuations can be found in Stock markets which didn't have bull market yet. In the commodity market, Soybean production is expected to reach another record in 2014, Grain supplies are expected to keep rising in the coming year as well. The outlook for world grain supplies in 2014-15 has improved considerably. The market for dairy commodities is readjusting after exceptionally high prices in 2013 and early 2014. Dairy prices are falling now. NZD and AUD too will follow dairy prices.

My ideas are not a recommendation to either buy or sell any security, commodity or currency. Please do your own research prior to making any investment decisions.

Valuegrowth
14-06-2014, 03:34 PM
Asian currencies including Yuan gained this week. In Asia Stock markets such as Japan, Hong Kong, China, Sri-Lanka and Mongolia had good run on Friday. On the other hand Indian market had a pullback. Markets in Indonesia, Philippines and Pakistan also didn’t do well on Friday.

Some market players missed the train this time too. Rather than identifying opportunities they paid more attention to fed tapering.

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/personalfinance/investing/10872146/New-high-for-Indian-stock-market-but-its-still-cheap.html

New high for Indian stock market - but it's still cheap'India’s stock market is soaring - up 18pc so far in 2014 - but is still undervalued on three measures. We highlight the funds to buy

As long as NZD stay high it is a kind of alarm to the economy. When other countries are holding or reducing their interest rate, New Zealand is doing opposite. New Zealand is among the first industrialized nations to start raising rates since the 2008 global financial crisis. Other nations could begin raising their interest rate from next year onwards. Every time interest rates goes up there will be short term uptrend for NZD. Higher interest rate and higher NZD will hurt export sector more. Further, falling dairy prices too will have some pressure on the economy. I believe best option to calm down house inflation is to introduce capital gain tax exception is owners of one and only home. Otherwise this is going to be double whammy for the economy. UK too is having a housing inflation now.
http://www.nzherald.co.nz/trade/news/article.cfm?c_id=96&objectid=11272135

Brian Fallow: Overvalued dollar sounds alarm bells

As I said before we may see more selling in grain in the second half of this year. Just like market players speculated on wheat when there is an uncertainly in Ukraine there is a short term uptrend for oil due to speculation on Iraq. Now Wheat is in bear market territory.
My ideas are not a recommendation to either buy or sell any security, commodity or currency. Please note that I do not endorse or take responsibility for material in the above hyper-linked sites. Please do your own research.

Valuegrowth
16-06-2014, 07:13 PM
http://www.bloomberg.com/quote/MSETOP:IND

http://www.forbes.com/sites/jonspringer/2014/01/12/mongolian-stock-exchange-opens-to-institutions-etfs-and-mutual-funds/

Mongolian Stock Exchange Opens To Institutions, ETFs And Mutual Funds

Valuegrowth
21-06-2014, 12:49 PM
Emerging market returns in this year is not as bad and some thought. Turkey is the emerging markets leader, up 13.9% followed by India up 10.9 % during past three months. Russia has gained buy 10.7%. Brazil’s shares has risen an average 8.9 this year. Even in China it is up by 4.1 %. Some emerging and frontier markets have seen a huge flow of foreign investment in May. Since the start of last year among frontier markets Bulgaria’s market has soared 91%, Pakistan’s has jumped 88%, and Nigeria’s has risen 47% by May 2014. In the meantime Vietnam’s stock markets plunged by 15% between early April and mid-May this year. We can clearly see as long as value is there investors are willing to invest in frontier and emerges stocks markets now. Among emerging market stocks, selected Russian energy, banking and telecommunication stocks and Indian tea stocks could do well in 2014.

I found following link posted on March 31st.

http://voiceofrussia.com/2014_03_31/Time-to-buy-Russia-Jim-Rogers-1172/

31 March, 13:40

“Time to buy Russia!” - Jim Rogers

http://www.business-standard.com/article/news-cm/market-pares-gains-114062000445_1.html

Tea stocks were in demand.

My ideas are not a recommendation to either buy or sell any security, commodity or currency. Please note that I do not endorse or take responsibility for material in the above hyper-linked sites. Please do your own research.

Valuegrowth
25-06-2014, 09:02 PM
Any market when it becomes too hot there will be sell off. I believe Investor attention will go to undervalued markets and stock markets which didn't have bull market sofar.

http://online.wsj.com/articles/property-stocks-selloff-sends-dubai-market-tumbling-1403612731
Dubai Market Tumbles Amid Property Stocks Selloff

http://www.businessweek.com/articles/2014-06-24/why-did-the-dubai-stock-market-crash

Why Is Dubai’s Stock Market Crashing?

My ideas are not a recommendation to either buy or sell any security, commodity or currency. Please note that I do not endorse or take responsibility for material in the above hyper-linked sites. Please do your own research.

Valuegrowth
03-07-2014, 07:16 AM
What a day was for global stocks markets. Asian markets too followed the U.S shares. Both Japanese and Hon Kong market were very active. Even European stocks climbed. Suzuki Motor rose in Japan. Among Asian emerging market India market has a good day. There is a demand for banking, infrastructure and tea stocks in India. Among Asian frontier market finally Sri-Lankan market is showing some strength. This could be one of the markets to watch in the coming months. Just like India, there could be great demand for banking, infrastructure and tea stocks in the coming months in Sri-Lankan market. In addition consumer staples stocks will have great demand in Asian emerging and frontier markets specially for meat and beverages related stocks.

http://in.reuters.com/article/2014/07/02/markets-sri-lanka-stocks-close-idINL4N0PD2QM20140702

Sri Lanka bourse at over 1-yr high on Keells; Hemas boosts turnover, inflowshttp://www.reuters.com/article/2014/07/02/markets-india-stocks-close-idUSL4N0PD2GY20140702India shares surge more than 1 pct to record highIn the meantime Corn futures dropped to a five month low. Soya bean also fell. We can expect favourable growing conditions in the U.S., the world’s top Corn exporter. Globally grain prices are under pressure now. This will lead to lower inflation. In the currency market there is some strength for both NZD and AUD due to short term speculation.USD will start its bull journey sooner than later.

My ideas are not a recommendation to either buy or sell any security, commodity or currency. Please note that I do not endorse or take responsibility for material in the above hyper-linked sites. Please do your own research.

Valuegrowth
04-07-2014, 07:56 AM
The US dollar strengthened. DOW passed 17,000. Stock markets in Germany, France, Iceland and Ireland also had a good run.

http://online.wsj.com/articles/stock-futures-inch-higher-1404389747

Dow Jones Industrial Average Closes Above 17000 for First Time

Corn futures entered the bear market. Oil, gold, soya bean and rice all went down. Cattle futures extended a rally to a record. Good time ahead for listed meat companies especially for poultry companies globally. Prices for wholesale beef went up 24 percent this year. An all-time high of $2.4865 for a pound of beef reported today. Cattle prices have climbed 15 percent. We’re going to see beef as the rich man’s meat. This new development will lead to more demand for poultry.

Among South Asian emerging and frontier markets, Pakistan stock market was in the limelight in 2013. Next we saw it in India. There is a great demand for defensive stocks and Tea stocks these days in Indian market. We are seeing some uptrend in Colombo Stock Exchange (CSE) now. Even Bangladesh stocks made modest gains last week. We can see foreign fund entering market such as Colombo Stock Exchange and Dhaka Stock Exchange now.

http://www.reuters.com/article/2014/07/03/markets-sri-lanka-stocks-close-idUSL4N0PE2YG20140703

Sri Lanka stocks hit over 13-month high on financials, foreign buying


http://www.thefinancialexpress-bd.com/2014/06/28/41861

Share prices end higher

My ideas are not a recommendation to either buy or sell any security, commodity or currency. Please note that I do not endorse or take responsibility for material in the above hyper-linked sites. Please do your own research.

Valuegrowth
12-07-2014, 03:58 PM
If we analyse global markets there is a demand for consumer staples stocks now. Lower grain prices will benefit European and American Food processing companies in the coming years. As I expected grain prices are falling rapidly now. What a week was for commodity market. Soybean futures posted the longest slump in 41 years. Corn fell to a four-year low. Other grains such as wheat, oat, rice and canola etc also slumped last week. Global soya bean and corn supply will climb in the coming years. The grain entered a bear market this month. SAFM was one of my favourites companies that I followed in bad and good times. Global poultry companies listed in other markets such as emerging and frontier markets too will have great run in the coming months and quarters.

http://www.thestreet.com/story/12771515/1/sanderson-farms-safm-hits-new-lifetime-high.html?puc=yahoo&cm_ven=YAHOO

Sanderson Farms (SAFM) Hits New Lifetime High

Among commodities selected soft commodities such as Tea and Cocoa and live stocks will maintain their uptrend. We will see rally in listed tea companies and tea related companies in India, Sri-Lanka, Kenya and other global markets due to favourable industry prospects.

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2014-07-09/tea-rally-seen-reviving-profit-at-world-s-top-grower.html

Tea Rally Seen Reviving Profit at World’s Top Grower

http://in.reuters.com/article/2014/0...0PJ38120140708

Bangladesh tea prices up on strong demand for quality leaf

currently we can see strong tea prices for high quality tea in Sri-Lanka. Tea prices have picked up even at the Mombasa Tea auction in Kenya.

http://online.wsj.com/articles/emerging-markets-chocolate-lovers-boost-cocoa-prices-1404849640

Emerging Markets' Chocolate Lovers Boost Cocoa Prices

After recent spike both Crude oil (wti) and Crude oil (Brent) too had a sell off. They are trading around USD 100 and 106 respectively.

In the meantime NZD touched fresh three year high due to speculation. I believe just like grain prices NZD also will have its bear market sooner than later. Three main commodity currencies in the world are NZD, AUD and CAD. Therefore these currencies will follow commodity prices. USD will become one of the bull currencies during next 10 to 18 months.

My ideas are not a recommendation to either buy or sell any security, commodity or currency. Please note that I do not endorse or take responsibility for material in the above hyper-linked sites. Please do your own research.

Valuegrowth
19-07-2014, 08:52 AM
USA stock advanced despite geo political crises. Lately among Asian markets, emerging and frontier market such as China and Sri-Lanka are showing some strength. Grain is in bear market territory now. Sooner than later commodity currencies such AUD, NZD and CAD too will go to bear market territory. Among commodities tea, coco and live stocks will have demand. Listed Meat stocks are going to shine more in the coming quarters. These type of commodities have become emerging commodities now. In addition, there is some hope for aluminium too. In the mean time dairy producers will have lower margin as dairy prices remain under pressure. Fall of NZD is imminent.

http://www.foxbusiness.com/industries/2014/07/09/roosters-fertility-problem-hits-us-chicken-supply-lifts-prices/

Roosters' fertility problem hits U.S. chicken supply, lifts prices

My ideas are not a recommendation to either buy or sell any security, commodity or currency. Please do your own research prior to making any investment decisions.

Valuegrowth
27-07-2014, 10:50 AM
I believe globally stocks with lower valuations will outperform the market. There could be some pressure on S & P 500, NASDQ and Dow in the short run. Still value stocks especially some consumer staples will have demand. Among Emerging and frontier Asian markets both China and Sri-Lankan markets will have some great value opportunities. Even in Bangladesh market there will be some opportunities. Undervalued consumer staples will be the place to watch. We cannot simply ignore large population and number of mouths in Asia in the future. In addition to multi national companies operating in Asia, well managed locally grown companies will maintain their growth. In the currency market US Dollar hit eight month high against Euro. NZ dollar could fall further in the coming weeks.

http://www.nasdaq.com/article/4-consumer-staples-for-earnings-beats-earnings-esp-cm373579

4 Consumer Staples for Earnings Beats - Earnings ESP

https://www.moodys.com/research/Moodys-Outlook-for-Sri-Lanka-banking-system-stable--PR_302924

Moody's: Outlook for Sri Lanka banking system stable

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2014-06-05/bangladesh-predicts-strongest-growth-since-1980-as-unrest-eases.html

Bangladesh Forecasts Strongest Growth Since 1980 as Unrest Eases

My ideas are not a recommendation to either buy or sell any security, commodity or currency. Please do your own research prior to making any investment decisions.

Valuegrowth
02-08-2014, 01:35 PM
There may be another opportunity for bargain hunters and value hunters from the current global selloff in stocks. More investors will go behind value investment now. They will prefer undervalued markets, sectors, commodities, currencies and stocks to overvalued markets, sectors, commodities, currencies and stocks now. USD is an undervalued currency and NZD is number one overvalued currency in the world. Some markets including frontier markets are less correlated to current turmoil in markets and their coming bull markets are still intact as they didn’t have bull market yet. We didn’t see bigger selloff in markets such as Poland, Oman, Kenya, Sri-Lanka, Philippines, Romania, Tanzania, UAE, Jordon, Hungary, Brazil, Mexico, Iceland, Egypt and Bulgaria etc. Most of these markets were up or flat on Friday.

In the meantime oil is heading for the biggest weekly drop in 7 months. There is a sharp drop in soyabean prices as well. Among soft commodities quality tea and coffee will have demand and prices will appreciate accordingly. There were some supports for Gold as well.

http://www.nasdaq.com/article/the-global-guru-doubledigit-percentage-gains-on-the-final-frontier-cm370552

The Global Guru: Double-Digit Percentage Gains on the 'Final Frontier

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2014-08-01/asian-currencies-set-for-weekly-drop-as-u-s-data-boost-dollar.html

Asian Currencies Complete Weekly Drop as U.S. Data Boost Dollar

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2014-07-31/shipping-rates-suffer-as-china-hydro-curbs-coal-imports-freight.html

Shipping Rates Drop as China Hydro Power Cuts Coal Need

Have a nice week end!

My ideas are not a recommendation to either buy or sell any security, commodity or currency. Please do your own research prior to making any investment decisions.

Valuegrowth
31-08-2014, 08:09 PM
What a Friday for DOW and S & P 500. DOW and S&P 500 are trading above 17,000 and 2000 respectively now.

Among emerging and frontier markets in Asia pacific region, we can see continuous strength in stock markets such Vietnam, Sri-Lanka and India. After some pull backs The Philippine Stock Exchange index added 13.26 points or 0.19 percent to close at 7,146.35, the highest finish for 2014 by 26th August. Currently their index is trading around 7050. In the meantime after recent sell off Pakistan stock market went up strongly on Friday. We are seeing some strength in Chinese stock market as well. In the mean time the main index of the Nairobi stock market is up 15 per cent so far this year. Some of these markets still have legs due to attractive valuations. It is time to avoid extremely overvalued markets and focus on undervalued markets and undervalued assets globally.

http://uk.reuters.com/article/2014/08/28/markets-southeast-asia-stocks-idUKL3N0QY3JQ20140828

SE Asia Stocks -Philippine shares retreat on rate outlook; Thai PTT drops

My ideas are not a recommendation to either buy or sell any security, commodity or currency. Please note that I do not endorse or take responsibility for material in the above hyper-linked sites. Please do your own research.

Valuegrowth
20-09-2014, 11:40 AM
The Standard & Poor’s 500 Index fell from a record. Asians markets were active on Friday. China and Sri-Lanka late starters to the current global market uptrend are showing gradual strength in their markets now. At least they have 20% upside potential. These are the two stocks markets to watch in the coming weeks and months as they have more value stocks. Even in other Asian markets such as Japan, Hong Kong, Indonesia, Philippine and India also were very active. Investors are leaving gold and invest in stocks now. Asian food and hot beverages sector should outperform other sectors in the coming years. Asia’s growing demand for high quality food products will create opportunities for share market investors and private equity investors in the coming years. In addition there will be acquisitions opportunities in food and beverage sector in Asia Pacific region in the coming years.

The U.S. Dollar Index advanced for a 10th straight week, the longest since at least March 1967. Grain prices are tumbling further. Finally Commodity currencies such as NZD and AUD also have started their bear journey now. Fall of NZD and AUD will accelerate further in the coming months and next year.

http://www.abc.net.au/news/2014-07-03/asian-demand-for-beef2c-lamb-and-poultry-surges-ahead-of-weste/5570328

Asian demand for beef, lamb and poultry surges ahead of western markets My ideas are not a recommendation to either buy or sell any security, commodity or currency. Please note that I do not endorse or take responsibility for material in the above hyper-linked site. Please do your own research

okay
07-10-2014, 02:58 PM
While world financial markets hang on her every word, Federal Reserve chair Janet Yellen isn’t making much of an impression yet on ordinary Americans.

Just 24 per cent of respondents correctly identified Janet Yellen as the chair of the US central bank in a survey by the Pew Research Centre in Washington.
Seventeen per cent believed Alan Greenspan, who resigned in 2006, still holds the job.:D

Valuegrowth
11-10-2014, 02:31 PM
While world financial markets hang on her every word, Federal Reserve chair Janet Yellen isn’t making much of an impression yet on ordinary Americans.

Just 24 per cent of respondents correctly identified Janet Yellen as the chair of the US central bank in a survey by the Pew Research Centre in Washington.
Seventeen per cent believed Alan Greenspan, who resigned in 2006, still holds the job.:D

It is very interesting.

What a week for global stocks market? We saw market drop and volatility not only in European market but also in the USA and Asia pacific region. The S & P 500 index fell 3.1 percent for the week (http://www.bloomberg.com/quote/SPX:IND). I believe there may be support at 1,900 for S & P 500.

http://www.reuters.com/article/2014/10/10/us-markets-stocks-idUSKCN0HZ0ZQ20141010

Chipmakers lead Wall St. selloff; S&P lowest since May
http://seekingalpha.com/news/2025285-investors-take-refuge-in-large-cap-consumer-staples

Investors take refuge in large cap consumer staples
Zack Industry Rank

Among consumer staples The Food – Meat Products industry is the best placed with a Zacks Industry Rank #14, which places it in the top 1/3rd of the 260+ industry groups. It is followed by Beverages with a Zacks Industry Rank of #88 and #43, respectively.

Iran is going to sell its oil to Asia in November at the biggest discount in almost six years, matching cuts by Saudi Arabia. So Iran has matched Saudi Arabia by cutting oil prices. Gold prices could fall further in the coming months. In the meantime corn and soya bean prices are plummeting due to expected bumper crop globally. The expected record corn and soybean harvest will be slightly bigger than previously estimated.

Among currencies both AUD and NZD are depreciating against USD and their bear journey will start sooner than later.

Overall there are still some opportunities in global markets and this is the time to rotate sectors. Overvalued currencies, commodities, sectors, stocks and markets should replace with undervalued currencies, commodities, sectors, stocks and markets now. Current selloff will create another opportunity as well. Asian Frontier markets are the places to watch in the coming months specially markets which are due for great uptrend. In sector wise Asian consumer staples sector will have growth more than other sectors in the coming years due to increased population in Asia. They will eat more protein such as meat and egg and will drink more coffee, tea and milk in the coming decade.

My ideas are not a recommendation to either buy or sell any security, commodity or currency. Please do your own research prior to making any investment decisions. Please note that I do not endorse or take responsibility for material in the above hyper-linked sites.

Valuegrowth
12-10-2014, 07:48 PM
http://www.morningstar.co.uk/uk/news/129979/best-performing-sector-of-2014.aspx

Best Performing Sector of 2014

Frontier markets have led the charge so far this year - up on average 25% since January. But the surprise star performer has been agriculture, returning 32% in nine months.

Valuegrowth
13-10-2014, 06:48 PM
http://www.thestreet.com/story/12910076/1/why-this-stock-market-selloff-should-evoke-greed-not-fear.html

Why This Stock Market Selloff Should Evoke Greed, Not Fear

Valuegrowth
19-10-2014, 01:32 PM
I believe still some markets have their legs. There will be opportunities in market pullback time to time. Selected emerging and frontier markets in Asia and South American region could have more growth in their stock markets in the coming quarters.

http://www.reuters.com/article/2014/10/17/markets-emerging-idUSL2N0SC1XY20141017

EMERGING MARKETS-Latam markets rebound as global markets recover

http://money.cnn.com/2014/09/10/investing/argentina-stock-market-gains/
]
Sizzling: Argentina's stock market is up 100%

My ideas are not a recommendation to either buy or sell any security, commodity or currency. Please note that I do not endorse or take responsibility for material in the above hyper-linked sites. Please do your own research.

Valuegrowth
27-10-2014, 01:07 PM
I found very interesting link.

http://www.forbes.com/sites/advisor/2014/09/26/a-stock-market-pullback-should-fuel-the-next-leg-of-this-secular-bull-market/

A Stock Market Pullback Should Fuel The Next Leg Of This Secular Bull Market

Among commodities we may see further weakness in gold and grain prices in the coming months. On the other hand there could be demand for emerging commodities in the coming years. As I expected oil is trading around $80 per barrel now. USD should become number one bullish currency in the world toward end of 2015. On the other hand currencies such as NZD, AUD could fall further toward end of 2015 and in 2016.

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2014-10-26/asian-stock-index-futures-rise-as-ecb-tests-seen-positive.html

Australian Stocks, U.S. Futures Rise After ECB Bank Tests

I believe it is time to identify next winning markets, sectors, commodities and currencies globally. It is also time to avoid overvalued markets, sectors, commodities and currencies.

My ideas are not a recommendation to either buy or sell any security, commodity or currency. Please note that I do not endorse or take responsibility for material in the above hyper-linked sites. Please do your own research.

blackcap
30-10-2014, 06:14 AM
Fed votes 9-1 to end QE.

Valuegrowth
01-11-2014, 08:33 PM
Fed votes 9-1 to end QE.

http://www.nasdaq.com/article/how-gold-etfs-sank-after-the-end-of-qe-cm408555

How Gold ETFs Sank After The End Of QE

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2014-10-31/gold-miners-plunge-toward-12-year-low-as-metal-drops.html

Gold Miners Plunge to 12-Year Low as Metal Drops

This is not the time for gold stocks.

As I said before still global markets have their legs. What a week for global stock markets. Fortunately we escaped from October selling. U.S. stocks jumped, sending indexes to records, thanks to stimulus from the Bank of Japan. Europe and Asia pacific region stocks also jumped.

Asian stocks markets could appreciate further over the next six to eight months. Among frontier market in Asia, Sri-Lankan stock market could do well in the coming months. I expect selected sectors and stocks to outperform over the next six months given attractive relative valuations. Consumer staples, infrastructure sectors are two of the places to watch in frontier and emerging markets in Asia. Listed meat, hot beverages stocks, selected IT stocks, agri stocks, travel and tourism stocks and infrastructures stocks should outperform other stocks in Asia.

http://www.marketpulse.com/20141030/goldman-bullish-asian-stocks/

Goldman Bullish on Asian Stocks


http://www.forbes.com/sites/jonspringer/2014/10/30/ten-reasons-to-invest-in-sri-lanka/

Ten Reasons to Invest In Sri Lanka

My ideas are not a recommendation to either buy or sell any security, commodity or currency. Please do your own research prior to making any investment decisions. Please note that I do not endorse or take responsibility for material in the above hyper-linked sites.

Valuegrowth
23-11-2014, 11:26 AM
Those who panicked when they heard QE must be regretting now. Although the Federal Reserve has now ended its quantitative easing (QE) program, the stock market is still rising.

It is interesting to see that U.S. equities recorded their fifth-straight week of gains. There are bull markets even in Asian and pacific region including frontier markets. Actually every pullback has created opportunities for stock market players in the current global bull market. Despite gloomy prediction by some it is going to be one of the longest bull markets that we ever had. Eventually this should reverse at some point and we cannot say when.

I think this powerful bull market is not going to end easily and we may see year end rally as well.

My ideas are not a recommendation to either buy or sell any security, commodity or currency. Please do your own research prior to making any investment decisions

Valuegrowth
21-12-2014, 02:01 PM
http://online.barrons.com/articles/asias-frontier-markets-shine-in-slowing-world-1418632357

Asia’s Frontier Markets Stand Out In A Slowing World

Deutsche Bank’s Juliana Lee on why investors should watch economies like Mongolia, Vietnam and Sri Lanka.

Valuegrowth
24-12-2014, 01:41 PM
Finally DOW passed 18,000 for the first time.

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2014-12-23/2014-headwinds-no-match-for-blue-chips-as-dow-tops-18-000.html

2014 Headwinds No Match for Blue Chips as Dow Tops 18,000

Rise of USD is likely to accelerate in 2015 and 2016 as well. On the other hand currencies such as AUD, CAD and NZD will depreciate against USD and emerging currencies in 2015 and 2016. US stock market and other developed markets may have strong pullback or correction in 2015. There will be volatility in both stock and commodity market. Best places to park money in 2015 are less appreciated markets, assets, emerging sectors, currencies, assets, commodity and stocks. Consumer staples, emerging commodity stocks, currencies and selected consumer discretionary stocks should outperform the market in 2015 and 2016. China and India is likely to drive the Asian region to particularly strong growth. Selected Asian frontier and emerging markets are poised to outperform in 2015. Their currencies also should stay strong especially against commodity currencies such as NZD, AUD and CAD.

Have a great Christmas and Happy New year 2015!

My ideas are not a recommendation to either buy or sell any security, commodity or currency. Please do your own research prior to making any investment decisions.

Valuegrowth
10-03-2015, 07:18 PM
http://marketrealist.com/2015/02/must-know...diversifiers-3/ (http://marketrealist.com/2015/02/must-know-frontier-markets-good-diversifiers-3/)

Why Frontier Markets Are Good Diversifiers

Valuegrowth
19-03-2015, 07:31 PM
http://www.fa-mag.com/news/leapfrogging-to...tier-21097.html (http://www.fa-mag.com/news/leapfrogging-to-asia-s-new-frontier-21097.html)

Leapfrogging To Asia's New Frontier

kiora
01-05-2015, 09:56 AM
From Twiggs money report.Setting up for a fall
Asia

A monthly chart shows the extent of the Shanghai Composite's exponential rise. Rising 13-week Twiggs Money Flow indicates buying pressure. Skyrocketing margin lending does not indicate a reversal, but does warn of fragility.

Valuegrowth
11-06-2015, 09:17 PM
There will be further easing in interest rates globally. In addition to New Zealand, the Bank of Korea lowered its key interest rate to an unprecedented low. I believe NZD could hit US50c by the end of this year it could reach US40C in 2016 and 2017. Overvalued Auckland property market should drop at least by 25% to 40% by 2016. It should start its bear journey from the second half of this year. Sooner Auckland housing market has correction it is better. Otherwise there could be Auckland housing market crash and banking crisis in New Zealand. Finally Lower NZD will give some life to the export sector.

http://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/news/ar...jectid=11463661 (http://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/news/article.cfm?c_id=3&objectid=11463661)

NZD tipped to hit US60c this year

http://www.wsj.com/articles/new-zealand-ce...sing-1433971740 (http://www.wsj.com/articles/new-zealand-central-bank-cuts-key-interest-rate-signals-more-easing-1433971740)

New Zealand Central Bank Cuts Key Interest Rate, Signals More Easing

Among stocks markets frontier markets have more value.Stocks in many emerging markets are undervalued now. Sri-Lanka is top attractive frontier market in Asia now.

Emerging and frontier market countries contain some of the most vibrant and fastest-growing economies in the world. Central European emerging markets and Turkey could benefit from economic recovery in the eurozone.

If we see less tensiosn over Ukraine, investor attention should focus on the attractive valuations available in the Russian market.

My ideas are not a recommendation to either buy or sell any security, commodity,property or currency. Please do your own research prior to making any investment decisions. Please note that I do not endorse or take responsibility for material in the above hyper-linked sites.

Valuegrowth
25-07-2015, 09:32 PM
It is high time to diversify investment and other businesses among basket of regions including frontier markets.

Every situation is an opportunity for intelligent investors. When market players are in buoyant mood they think this time is different. No it is not. Every asset has its own short term and long term cycles. Few years back USD stayed very low for a considerable period not only against high flying currencies such as NZD and AUD but also against frontier market currencies. Now it is other way. Those currencies such as AUD, NZD and CAD which appreciated rapidly against USD and frontier market currencies during last five years are depreciating against USD and frontier market currencies now. Lately emerging currencies such as Indian rupee and South African currencies had some sell off. India rupee had settle down somewhat. South Asia is more stable than other Asian regions.

Out of all currencies frontier market currencies are less vulnerable to any hiccup. They always traded very low against hard currencies and emerging currencies. On top of that, time to time they were devaluating their currencies against USD.

This is the time to diversify and identify undervalued markets and other undervalued assets including under valued currencies and emerging commodities.

Those who advised others to dumb USD will have to think twice now. By 2017/18 USD should become very strong. GOLD will crush further. Higher USD also will benefit some sectors in other countries. Higher USD means more demand for good and services as well.

http://www.investmentweek.co.uk/investment...rontier-markets (http://www.investmentweek.co.uk/investment-week/feature/2400474/how-new-political-regimes-are-helping-asia-s-frontier-markets)

How new political regimes are helping Asia’s frontier markets

Michael Levy, investment manager, EMEA and global frontier markets equity team at Barings, looks at companies set to outperform on the back of new and more focused political regimes
.
While the performance of emerging markets over the past few years has been weak, frontier markets have been relatively more robust, particularly in Asia. This is not to say they have become impermeable to volatility: frontier market equities have come under pressure recently due to the plunging oil price – particularly in oil exporting markets such as Nigeria and Kazakhstan.

The companies which are likely to deliver the most attractive long-term returns are well-managed, and the potential for strong earnings growth for multiple years can be seen.

But in recent months, a strengthening political background in many frontier markets has become a key indicator of the continuing rise of the asset class into the investment mainstream.

In Asia, an example of the democratic process functioning well in a frontier economy was seen in Sri Lanka, which elected and installed a new president in January. The New Democratic Front – led by Maithripala Sirisena was declared the winner after receiving 50% of the votes. Meanwhile, Middle Eastern markets posted mixed returns of late, Saudi Arabia performed strongly despite the passing of King Abdullah in January – helped by the fact that his successor, King Salman, set out a clear roadmap for future succession.

While they will not be totally immune to significant developments in the global economy, frontier markets are expected to continue to be primarily driven by domestic issues.

Indeed, they do have a lower correlation with developed markets than their emerging counterparts – just 0.49 compared to 0.84. This means frontier markets tend to be driven much more by local factors than large-scale macroeconomic and geopolitical developments.

Solid growth across the frontier market universe is expected this year, significantly ahead of most developed or emerging economies, the growth is expected to continue through the medium to long term – over a three- to five-year time horizon – helped by supportive demographics.

For instance, while many investors have assumed the drop in the oil price is negative for frontier markets, we believe this concern is misplaced. Many frontier market countries are net oil importers, positioned to benefit from the oil price fall. This combination of a supportive economic environment and lower energy costs should be positive for Asia – particularly companies in countries such as Sri Lanka and Bangladesh.

Stronger growth

The companies which are likely to deliver the most attractive long-term returns are well-managed, and the potential for strong earnings growth for multiple years can be seen. Examples include Brac Bank and Masan Group.

The first of these is a bank in Bangladesh with good exposure to the fast-growing small and medium-sized enterprises market. It also operates Bangladesh’s leading mobile payments platform.

Masan Group, on the other hand, is Vietnam’s second-largest food and beverage company with dominant positions in seasonings, noodles and instant coffee. The company has exciting expansion plans and is looking to increase product offerings in new categories.

Share price valuation

It is worth highlighting the share price valuation for frontier markets, which is attractive in absolute terms and relative to emerging markets. As can be seen below, the MSCI Frontier Markets index offers more than twice the return on equity than the MSCI Emerging Markets index for a lower price/earnings ratio.
pg33-graph


http://fortune.com/2015/07/24/chinas-slowd...es-to-new-lows/ (http://fortune.com/2015/07/24/chinas-slowdown-pushes-commodity-prices-to-new-lows/)

China's slowdown pushes commodity prices to new lows

Metals prices in particular are tanking as the long-held belief in limitless Chinese demand evaporates.

Fresh evidence of the slowdown in China’s industrial sectoris pushing the prices of gold and other commodities to new multi-year lows Friday.

Gold has slumped another 1.1% to a new five-year low of just over $1.080 a troy ounce, while prices for copper hit a six-year low below $2.36 a pound. Nickel and aluminum, two other base metals that also historically serve as good indicators of demand from global industry, also came close to new six-year lows, as traders increasingly lose faith in the main factor that has supported prices for the last decade–supposedly limitless demand from China.

The news is bad news for the global economy in general, as Chinese demand for raw materials has been a major prop to emerging markets for the last 20 years. Countries from Chile and Angola to Australia and New Zealand have come to depend on Chinese demand for their natural resources, and all are seeing their economies falter and their currencies fall as the biggest engine of global growth struggles. The International Monetary Fund earlier this month revised down its forecast for global growth this year to 3.3% from 3.5% (although that was mainly due to a weak first half in the U.S. rather than to Chinese factors).
Copper prices can’t stop falling. Source: Investing.com

Sentiment in global commodity markets has taken a turn for the worse in the wake of China’s second-quarter gross domestic product data and the drastic measures taken to control the deflation of a stock market bubble. The annual growth rate of 7% announced by the authorities seemed to be at odds with economists’ assessment of other indicators, prompting fears that the country is massaging its data. At the same time, the widespread suspension of stocks on the mainland market, coupled with heavy-handed measures to support prices and stop investors selling, has fostered doubts as to the authorities’ stated commitment to market-oriented reforms.

Markit’s flash estimate of its purchasing managers index, which is based on anecdotal replies from businessmen across the country rather than the calculations state-appointed statisticians, fell to a new 14-month low of 48.2 in July from 49.4 in June, while the manufacturing output sub-index fell to a 16-month low of 47.3 from 49.7. A reading of 50 typically reflects the line between growth and contraction.

Cold comfort for commodities – Chinese manufacturing is trending down.Markit

That was short of market expectations, and markets were alarmed by how broad-based the deterioration was. New orders, export orders, employment and prices all fell, while inventories of unsold goods rose
.
The Shanghai Composite index, despite the heavy restrictions on trading now in place, fell 1.3% in response to the news, but is still up more than 25% from its recent bottom, thanks to buying funded by state-backed entities. Even so, analysts have started to worry that the amount of wealth destroyed by rout since mid-June may be having knock-on effects at national level by depressing spending and consumer confidence.

My ideas are not a recommendation to either buy or sell any security, commodity or currency. Please do your own research prior to making any investment decisions. Please note that I do not endorse or take responsibility for material in the above hyper-linked sites.

Valuegrowth
25-08-2015, 08:46 PM
Current situation has created another great opportunity. We should not forget following two things as well.



Interest rates low
Commodity inflation nil


Companies in some industries such as Grain Elevators, meat companies, Airlines, ship and airlines builders will be next winners in the global markets.

Commodity currencies will go down further. Frontier markets will have more opportunities due to attractive valuation. Their currencies are also stable.

There will be great opportunities in DOW and NASDAQ as well. In addition, there will be emerging commodities such as Tea and solar. Finally there will be more demand for defensive stocks such as health care and food stocks.

My ideas are not a recommendation to either buy or sell any security, commodity or currency. Please do your own research prior to making any investment decisions.

Valuegrowth
03-09-2015, 05:32 PM
According to Goldman Sacks group, S&P 500 would approach its all-time high in December 2015 and their year end target is 2100.

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2015-09-02/when-will-it-end-history-shows-u-s-stocks-rebound-needs-months

When Will It End? History Shows U.S. Stocks Rebound Needs Months

Others are even more optimistic. For example Oppenheimer is calling S & P 500 at 2311.

http://www.cnbc.com/2015/09/02/s-bold-call-2311-for-the-sp-500-by-year-end.html

Oppenheimer's bold call: 2,311 for the S&P 500 by year-end
After this selloff, globally markets should rebound strongly in the coming weeks and months. I believe current global selloff and volatility has created opportunities in almost all types of markets such as developed, emerging and frontiers markets. Frontier markets have more opportunity on valuation and growth. Within 2 decades, the Frontier Markets will be home to nearly half of the world’s population.

Why invest in frontier markets?

They have rapidly rising middle class

They are some of the world’s fastest growing economies

They have more undervalued stock markets in the world

Some investors view Asian and African frontier markets as a more attractive investment destination than emerging markets. There are great opportunities in frontier markets such as Sri-Lanka, Bangladesh, Vietnam, Nigeria and Kenya.

My ideas are not a recommendation to either buy or sell any security, commodity or currency. Please do your own research prior to making any investment decisions. Please note that I do not endorse or take responsibility for material in the above hyper-linked sites.

kiora
23-10-2015, 04:31 AM
Shooting oneself in the foot

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How we got here

By Colin Twiggs
October 22th, 2015 6:00 p.m. AEDT (3:00 a.m. EDT)
Advice herein is provided for the general information of readers and does not have regard to any particular person's investment objectives, financial situation or needs. Accordingly, no reader should act on the basis of any information contained herein without first having consulted a suitably qualified financial advisor.

If we don't learn from the mistakes of the past we will be destined to repeat them (George Santayana). Looking back over the last three decades gives an inkling as to what went wrong and to the level of economic mismanagement.
International trade is a zero sum game: what one country exports, another must import. Likewise, current accounts between nations are a zero-sum game: if one country runs a surplus, another will experience a deficit. Fortunately currency exchange rates act as an automatic stabilizer. If one country exports more than another, its currency will strengthen to the point that balance is restored in the level of trade between the two nations.
At least that is how it is supposed to work. Over the last three decades, Japan followed by China, has been rorting the system [translation: engage in a sharp practice (Australian/NZ)]. Accumulation of massive foreign reserves (e.g. by buying US Treasuries) prevented their currencies from appreciating and allowed them to maintain massive current account imbalances.
Current Accounts China & Japan
These beggar-thy-neighbor policies built up massive imbalances within the US economy.
Current Account USA
Which led to the global financial crisis, the Great Recession, the sovereign debt crisis in Europe, the subsequent emerging markets crisis and extended slow recovery we are now experiencing.

kiora
18-11-2015, 04:01 AM
More stimulus coming?.How can interest rates in the EU get any lower ?
http://www.4-traders.com/BREWIN-DOLPHIN-HOLDINGS-P-4001760/news/European-Stocks-Rise-US-Shares-Wobble-21420851/?countview=0

Valuegrowth
10-12-2015, 04:51 AM
Lower commodity prices are boom for some industries and oil importing countries. We will see more money in the pocket of global consumers and they will create demand for other consumer items. We will see growth in other areas and there will be opportunity in those areas. It is time to take advantage from lower commodity prices through listed companies in global markets. Lower oil and grain prices are boom for some industries.

Valuegrowth
09-01-2016, 12:26 PM
Many talk about China chaos and global market drop. But there are opportunities even in markets like today.

Globally, listed poultry stocks are doing well despite global market selloff. Pilgrim's Pride Corporation (PPC) up by more than 3% on a volume of 2667628. TSN and SAFM are also resilient. Shares in Shenzhen-listed (China) poultry producers also went up on a volume of 3645184. Lay Hong Berhad listed poultry company in Malaysia is also up by more than 3% on Friday. Chicken and egg stocks could outperform others in 2016 due to strong poultry market outlook.

Listed Asian poultry producers also should do well in 2016 due to tight poultry supply situation and demand for poultry products. Lower oil and feed prices are benefiting their industry lot. Many countries in Asia and Middle East have banned or suspended poultry products import from France as well.

Finally, we should see strong rebound in global markets sooner than later. South Asia has more edge over other Asian region. There will be opportunities in markets such Japan, South Korea, India, Indonesia, Europe and the USA in selected sectors. Among frontier markets, Sri-Lanka is attractive on valuation and we can see some strong activities in the coming months. Chinese consumer sector and internet sector will have more growth over other sectors. Both Australia and New Zealand will have more opportunity to export meat to China in the coming decade.

We should see more weakness in commodity prices in 2016 as well. After long period gold should trade below $1000.Oil importing countries and commodity consuming companies will become winners. Global consumers will have more money in their pocket thanks to lower oil and gas prices. They will create demand for other products.

Asian currencies especially south Asian currencies should appreciate against basket of currencies including NZD and AUD in 2016. USD also will stay strong.

We are not going to see end of easy money policy in 2016. FED might have cautious approach to their rate decisions. Still there will be demand for stocks globally in 2016 as well. China chaos is opening up another great opportunity for global investors in global stock markets.

My ideas are not a recommendation to either buy or sell any security, commodity or currency. Please do your own research prior to making any investment decisions.

Valuegrowth
17-01-2016, 03:44 PM
Is lower oil good for the Economy? Yes
Are interest rates low? Yes. It is still historically low.
Are valuations too high? No. Globally there are plenty of value markets, sectors and stocks
Can we expect higher earnings from listed companies globally? Yes.

Strong fundamentals are still intact. Therefore, year of 2016 is going to be another year of opportunity.

My ideas are not a recommendation to either buy or sell any security, commodity or currency. Please do your own research prior to making any investment decisions.

macduffy
17-02-2016, 08:16 AM
Here's a recent article from Saeculum Research. Well worth a read.

http://www.saeculumresearch.com/big-picture-spotlight?sourceid=2595&pubid=bp

Daytr
17-02-2016, 05:54 PM
Good article Macduff, thanks for posting.
And I think he's spot on in regards corporate earnings.
Multinationals have also relied on offshoring to avoid paying tax and that appears to be tightening up as well.
One thing he didn't mention is the growing disparity of wealth creates lazy capital.

Valuegrowth
17-02-2016, 07:40 PM
Here's a recent article from Saeculum Research. Well worth a read.

http://www.saeculumresearch.com/big-picture-spotlight?sourceid=2595&pubid=bp

Thank you for the Article.

Valuegrowth
05-03-2016, 05:05 PM
After recent brutal sell-off there are tremendous value in stocks in some Asian frontier markets such as Pakistan, Sri-Lanka and Bangladesh. Even Goldman Sachs is very bullish on Indian prospects. South Asia is one of the bright spots in global markets.

Frontier-market equity funds from Sweden to Hong Kong are ready to buy more Asian frontier market stocks attracted by cheap valuations and growth.

http://www.cnbc.com/2016/03/01/three-hot-frontier-markets-to-invest-in-now-commentary.html

Three hot frontier markets to invest in now

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2016-03-02/frontier-stocks-score-rare-big-win-over-more-developed-markets

Frontier Stocks Score Rare Big Win Over More-Developed Markets

My ideas are not a recommendation to either buy or sell any security, commodity or currency. Please do your own research prior to making any investment decisions.

macduffy
09-03-2016, 09:08 AM
Here's a sobering article on the implications of the "new normal" slower economic growth predicted by some for the USA - and the rest of us.

http://www.crestmontresearch.com/docs/Article-Game-Changer.pdf

Joshuatree
09-03-2016, 09:55 AM
Sorry mac my eyes glazed over and its re 2 years old; pertinent to now?

macduffy
09-03-2016, 11:18 AM
Sorry mac my eyes glazed over and its re 2 years old; pertinent to now?

Possibly even more pertinent than it was - now that there's been another 2 years of low growth!

Hoop
09-03-2016, 02:45 PM
Sorry mac my eyes glazed over and its re 2 years old; pertinent to now?

The article 3 years old but it is market theory or using better terminology market physics....Mathematics is over 2500 years old maybe older and it is still pertinent..eh?
Learn the theory Joshuatree it's mind bending because most of us have unfortunately been media taught...When you finally grasp the theory and the mechanics of market physics behind it all, then you will them able to spot the crap that some Media pump out by the so called "experts".. you will be surprised who some of them are and be able to deduce why they did it..

Winner69's thread Investing Strategies and Secular Bear Markets (http://www.sharetrader.co.nz/showthread.php?5171-Investing-strategies-and-secular-bear-markets)There is 26 pages and many posts relates to the market physics that Crestmont Research mentions..and more.

Valuegrowth
12-03-2016, 12:53 PM
We cannot predict top of the bull market. Still I didn’t become bear. Even if bear comes there will be some bulls most probably toward end of 2017 and 2018/19.All sort of panics created another great opportunity. Thank you for some good analysis here. American chickens are beating others. We should see breaking of more life time high in the coming months. Global consumers have more money in their pockets.

Valuegrowth
11-06-2016, 10:19 AM
More or less we should see see-saw pattern in global markets in the short run. However, there is always bull market somewhere. Investors could park more money in some defensive stocks in the coming months as this is going to be final stage of current global bull market.

There is quite a bit of speculation on different types of assets without any fundamental reasons as well. For example, iron ore rallied dramatically in China in April and plummeted in May. We also can see over speculation in some commodities.

It is time to avoid speculative bets on assets. Volatility in USD also will create volatility in commodities. We should see next stage of strength in USD once FED begin their gradual rate hike. This should lead to next stage of weakness in commodities.

Globally, undervalued market and undervalued stocks should outperform other markets and stocks in 2016/17. In short, still we can see abound of opportunities in global stock markets especially in sectors such as consumer discretionary and consumer staples etc. We can screen further and we should find some winning sub sectors in those sectors such as house hold and personal, food and beverages, media, hotels, restaurants and leisure, consumer durables and retailing etc. Still we can see rising asset prices thanks to historically low interest rates and global central banks support.

Following are some links on commodities and currencies.

http://www.un.org/apps/news/story.asp?NewsID=54116#.V1tDOLt97IU

Global food prices rose in May; commodity markets look stable for year ahead – UN

http://www.agriculture.com/markets/analysis/crops/analyst-sell-at-these-new-recent-highs-for-corn-soybeans

ANALYST: SELL AT THESE NEW RECENT HIGHS FOR CORN, SOYBEANS

https://www.poundsterlinglive.com/gbp-live-today/4950-gbp-softer-against-eur-and-usd-despite-trade-data

British Pound Pummelled by US Dollar as Global Investors Run Scared

http://business.scoop.co.nz/2016/06/10/dairy-prices-down-from-farm-gate-to-grocery-store/

Dairy prices down, from farm gate to grocery stor (http://business.scoop.co.nz/2016/06/10/dairy-prices-down-from-farm-gate-to-grocery-store/)e

http://www.abc.net.au/news/2016-06-10/grain-price-drop/7498196

Price rethink needed for Australian wheat to compete

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2016-06-10/grain-prices-fall-as-u-s-sees-global-supply-exceeding-estimates

Grains Decline as U.S. Sees Global Supply Exceeding Estimates

My ideas are not a recommendation to either buy or sell any security, commodity or currency. Please note that I do not endorse or take responsibility for material in the above hyper-linked sites. Please do your own research.

Valuegrowth
18-06-2016, 06:13 AM
Brexit should create another great opportunity in global stock markets. There are winners. Can we expect Brexit? It depends on the referendum.

http://www.express.co.uk/finance/personalfinance/680215/How-Brexit-could-give-savvy-investors-a-lucrative-opportunity

REVEALED: How Brexit could give savvy investors a lucrative opportunity

BREXIT could present investors with a chance to back UK companies at a cheaper price, according to experts.

http://www.moneyobserver.com/our-analysis/when-dust-settles-brexit-will-create-buying-opportunities

When the dust settles Brexit will create buying opportunities (http://www.moneyobserver.com/our-analysis/when-dust-settles-brexit-will-create-buying-opportunities)

http://www.vox.com/2016/6/17/11963668/brexit-uk-eu-explained

Brexit, the UK referendum that could tear Europe apart, explained

Valuegrowth
29-06-2016, 08:39 PM
Market players took Brexit as reason to sell stocks. We could expect another strong run in global stock markets from July onwards. In the short run pound may have some volatility. Sooner than later it should rebound at least in some extent. Brexit is not going to happen overnight. There is a legal process. By that time both UK and EU could have their own survival guides and plans. It is not that bad as many thinks. There are pros and cons. In short, there should be demand for value stocks, value markets and value currencies over over-valued markets, over valued stocks and over valued currencies such as NZD, AUD and CAD in the coming months.

In addition, normally month of June create uncertainty and poor performance in markets.

janner
30-06-2016, 01:58 AM
Out of 28 stock markets only China and Taiwan are down at this present time..

Should be a good day on the NZX..

I am still down about 6% overall. But I can live with that..

Valuegrowth
02-07-2016, 08:23 AM
Some remarkable trends and events in global markets.

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2016-06-30/britain-stocks-decline-after-biggest-two-day-surge-since-2011

British Stocks Rally to Highest Level since August on BOE Bets

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2016-06-30/u-s-farmers-unexpectedly-boost-corn-acres-from-march-intentions

U.S. Farmers Surprise With Bigger Corn Acres as Prices Slump

http://www.marketwatch.com/story/asian-markets-end-higher-after-boe-signals-more-easing-2016-07-01

Asian markets end higher after BOE signals more easing

Valuegrowth
07-07-2016, 07:25 PM
New Zealand market has outperformed Australian market and other Asian markets during last one year.
Out of 28 stock markets only China and Taiwan are down at this present time..

Should be a good day on the NZX..

I am still down about 6% overall. But I can live with that..

http://www.cnbc.com/2016/07/05/siegel-stocks-may-jump-15-in-the-2nd-half-of-2016--heres-why.html

Siegel: Stocks may jump 15% in the 2nd half of 2016 — here’s why

Valuegrowth
08-07-2016, 05:35 AM
So far New Zealand is the world’s top-performing developed market in 2016. There will be some best emerging and frontier markets as well in 2016/17.

Valuegrowth
16-07-2016, 11:42 AM
http://www.usatoday.com/story/money/personalfinance/2016/07/15/despite-jitters-global-stocks-still-make-sense/86778818/

Despite jitters, global stocks still make sense

https://www.thestar.com/business/2016/07/15/british-pound-headed-for-best-week-since-2009.html

British pound headed for best week since 2009

Brexit fears calm as Bank of England, headed by Mark Carney, unexpectedly keeps interest rates unchanged

Valuegrowth
02-08-2016, 08:56 PM
http://blogs.barrons.com/asiastocks/2016/08/02/5-reasons-to-buy-asian-stocks/

5 Reasons to Buy Asian Stocks

Valuegrowth
13-08-2016, 04:36 PM
Still global markets are maintaining their strength. We are seeing brexit boom in the UK stock market as well as in European markets. Britain’s FTSE 100 Defied Brexit to Enter Bull Territory.

Suddenly Frontier markets have become rich hunting ground for investors.

https://www.trustnet.com/News/686183/emerging-markets-are-not-the-final-frontier-for-investors/

Emerging markets are not the final frontier for investors

While emerging markets have been rallying and investors remain cautious on developed markets,could frontier markets be where the best risk-adjusted returns lie?

Valuegrowth
13-09-2016, 07:15 PM
Suddenly Pound has become kind of winner in the currency market.

https://www.poundsterlinglive.com/gbp-live-today/5451-gbp-into-eur-and-usd-inflation-data

British Pound Steady Against Euro, Dollar as Exchange Rate Markets Await Inflation Data

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2016-09-12/brainard-says-prudence-is-warranted-as-raising-rates-poses-risks

Brainard Says Prudence Warranted as Hiking Rates Poses Risks

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2016-09-12/stock-rebound-set-to-live-on-in-asia-as-fed-outlook-hits-dollar

Aussie Slides With Crude Oil, Iron Ore as European Stocks Rise

Valuegrowth
18-09-2016, 12:17 PM
Globally, selected tech stocks and food stocks could score in this September. In the mean time the optimists will hunt for fundamentally sound stocks selling at a discount.

http://www.huffingtonpost.co.uk/luke-springthorpe/brexit-winners-losers_b_11998114.html

Who Are The Winners And Losers Of Brexit?

http://www.insidermonkey.com/blog/five-packaged-foods-stocks-to-buy-now-473742/

Five Packaged Foods Stocks to Buy Now (http://www.insidermonkey.com/blog/five-packaged-foods-stocks-to-buy-now-473742/)

http://finance.yahoo.com/news/restaurant-stock-initiatives-track-time-204408080.html

Restaurant Stock Initiatives on Track: Time to Invest?

http://www.nasdaq.com/article/stocks-tech-sector-gets-boost-from-apple--wsj-20160917-00007

Stocks: Tech Sector Gets Boost From Apple

Mush
20-09-2016, 04:04 PM
Note from DB Markets research today about BoJ's meeting tomorrow.

"Reports by the Nikkei, Mainichi, Kyodo News and other major media outlets
regarding the BoJ's comprehensive assessment of policy tomorrow show a
general perception that the BoJ will not retreat from its easing stance; may
deepen its negative interest rate policy (NIRP); will allow a steepening of the
yield curve; will not buy foreign bonds; will maintain its 2% price stability
target but abandon a fixed deadline; and indicate a new monetary policy
framework for a protracted war against deflation."

"If the BoJ refrains from easing action and the Fed from another rate hike
tomorrow, as we are anticipating, the USD/JPY may come under downward
pressure (though they are likely to leave open the possibility action within the
year). We believe the upside for the USD/JPY would remain capped by selling
orders by Japanese hedgers. At the same time, any significant drop below
¥100 could bring the floor to the mid ¥90s or lower."

Valuegrowth
20-09-2016, 06:04 PM
Mush it is very interesting one. Thanks.

Japans Yen had a post -brexit run despite having negative rates. One reason for not weakening could be hedging.

In the very short run, Japanese yen should gain against dollar. However, anything is possible due to following two reasons.



Government intervention to weaken the yen



A short-term retrenchment for the yen is possible as profits are taken.


Finally, day for strong dollar and some Asian currencies are very near. US Dollar one and only reserve currency in the world should appreciate against basket of currencies such as NZD, AUD, CAD, and some other currencies from 2017 onwards.

Mush
20-09-2016, 06:17 PM
Hedging yes, but also due to it being a popular carry trade/funding currency.

Agreed r.e short term JPY strength, if it sustains a break through 100 things could get interesting.

I say buckle up for some September instability across all markets.

King1212
20-09-2016, 06:46 PM
Hedging yes, but also due to it being a popular carry trade/funding currency.

Agreed r.e short term JPY strength, if it sustains a break through 100 things could get interesting.

I say buckle up for some September instability across all markets.


Including october and and early nov as US election on the conner...

Valuegrowth
20-09-2016, 07:55 PM
How about post-Brexit rally in UK?

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2016-09-20/british-stocks-rise-for-2nd-day-as-miners-trade-at-3-week-highs

British Stocks Rise for 2nd Day as Miners Trade at 3-Week Highs

Valuegrowth
21-09-2016, 07:21 PM
We should not forget global central banks as well. They are still supporting markets. Global markets offer an abundance of opportunities for intelligent investors.


http://www.reuters.com/article/us-global-markets-idUSKCN11R031

BOJ rate surprise lifts world stocks ahead of Fed


http://www.fxweek.com/fx-week/news/2469570/uk-could-be-post-brexit-winner-in-asia


UK could be post-Brexit winner in Asia


http://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/news/article.cfm?c_id=3&objectid=11499651


Kiwis must grab global opportunities: PwC

It is true Kiwis should grab global opportunities but should not ignore long term attractive investment opportunities here. NZ was able to face somewhat successfully despite having one of the overvalued currencies in the world. This time it went too far and if affected badly for some companies and lost some jobs as well. We should see era of lower NZD next. It will give much boost to some industries and export sector.

Valuegrowth
22-09-2016, 08:53 PM
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2016-09-21/add-apple-insiders-to-list-of-those-who-didn-t-hang-on-for-rally

A Bunch of Apple Insiders Sold Stock at Exactly the Wrong Time

Five executives cut stakes in August, most since at least 2004
Stock up 7 percent this month, partly helped by Samsung’s woe

Valuegrowth
23-09-2016, 09:46 PM
http://www.cnbc.com/2016/09/22/reuters-america-update-1-japan-issues-fresh-warning-against-excessive-yen-rises.html

Valuegrowth
24-09-2016, 08:28 AM
http://www.wsj.com/articles/dollar-edges-higher-on-gains-against-pound-yen-1474643255


Dollar Edges Higher on Gains Against Pound,Yen

(http://www.wsj.com/articles/dollar-edges-higher-on-gains-against-pound-yen-1474643255)
https://www.poundsterlinglive.com/eur/5490-gbp-to-eur-abn-amro

ABN Amro Upgrade British Pound + UK GDP Forecasts, Sterling Seen Ending Year Higher Against Euro and US Dollar

Valuegrowth
24-09-2016, 06:05 PM
Ukraine Market

One year return

PFTS Index= negative (-22.32)
Ukrainian Equities Index=negative (-7.87)

One month return

PFTS Index= 8.78%
Ukrainian Equities Index=17.11%

After sometime, It has returned to some bullish territory.

Russian Market

One year return

MICEX INDEX= 22.70%
RUSSIAN RTS INDEX =26.93%

One month return

MICEX INDEX= 0.93%
RUSSIAN RTS INDEX =2.10%

May be it is time to look for new bullish markets. When compare with Russia, Ukraine should outperform Russia in 2017. Russian market has given some good returns in 2016. On the other hand Ukraine had underperformed other markets during first seven months of 2016.


Marketwinner

Would now be a good time to get some exposure to the Ukraine stockmarket

Seems to have rock bottom and only one way to go now .....up

Mush
27-09-2016, 09:53 AM
Some big news yesterday, German Chancellor Merkel ruled out a Bailout package for Deutsche Bank which is looking incredibly sick with potential capital shortfalls even if the DOJ settlement is reduced to $5B. This could be disastrous for Germany, the Euro area and the global banking sector.

Points to note:
- DB is the most systemic bank in Europe
- This sent DB's shares to record lows (sub 11 Euros), along with the majority of other European banks

8328

- DB's balance sheet is larger than the German GDP
- DB's derivative exposure is greater than the whole Euro area GDP

8329
- Draghi "I'm not willing to comment on the DB situation"
- Pending DOJ settlement is around $15B, when DB's market cap is only around $18B Euros

This then poses the question:

8330


Regards,
Mush

Valuegrowth
27-09-2016, 07:50 PM
https://www.ft.com/content/c882de4e-83c1-11e6-a29c-6e7d9515ad15

Deutsche Bank denies seeking help from Berlin over

http://www.bbc.com/news/business-37469751 (http://www.bbc.com/news/business-37469751)

German economy expecting golden autumn, says Ifo head

http://www.stuff.co.nz/business/farming/cropping/84649926/bountiful-overseas-harvests-put-pressure-on-domestic-prices

Bountiful overseas harvests put pressure on domestic prices

For some reasons some investors and analysts didn’t like the bailout move in the past.

http://harvardpolitics.com/arusa/the-bank-bailout-in-perspective/

(http://harvardpolitics.com/arusa/the-bank-bailout-in-perspective/)The Bank Bailout in Perspective (http://harvardpolitics.com/arusa/the-bank-bailout-in-perspective/)

http://www.forbes.com/sites/johntamny/2011/03/06/necessary-bank-bailouts-harm-the-economy-wreck-the-banks/#7558a88a19fe

"Necessary" Bank Bailouts Harm the Economy, Wreck the Banks (http://www.forbes.com/sites/johntamny/2011/03/06/necessary-bank-bailouts-harm-the-economy-wreck-the-banks/#7558a88a19fe)

http://seekingalpha.com/article/188040-why-the-bank-bailouts-were-necessary

Why the Bank Bailouts Were Necessary
(http://seekingalpha.com/article/188040-why-the-bank-bailouts-were-necessary)

Valuegrowth
28-09-2016, 06:24 PM
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2016-09-27/vancouver-london-top-list-of-cities-at-risk-of-housing-bubble

Hong Kong, Sydney Among Cities Most at Risk of Housing Bubble (http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2016-09-27/vancouver-london-top-list-of-cities-at-risk-of-housing-bubble)

Valuegrowth
30-09-2016, 10:33 PM
Despite volatility in global stocks market there are some demands for some stocks particularly for food related stocks. Volatility has become new normal now. It is not abnormal any longer.

Commodity market

OPEC deal prevented from OIL tanking below $40. Still outlook for oil market is very fragile due to poor fundamentals. If above deal work without any problems oil can stay around $47to $50 in 2017.However USA shale producers and another giant oil producer Kazakhstan still will supply enough oil to the market. There will be competition for oil market in the coming decade among oil producers. Iran also will grab some markets for their oil. If oil stays firm around $50 without tanking below $35 many new oil producers also will get interest on their oil fields and will produce more oil.

http://www.reuters.com/article/us-opec-meeting-russia-idUSKCN11Z1X0

Russia aims to keep oil output around current level after OPEC deal. In the mean time grain prices are trending down further.


Currency market

http://www.investing.com/news/forex-news/dollar-holds-steady-vs.-other-majors-ahead-of-u.s.-data-429537

Dollar holds steady vs. other majors ahead of U.S. data

http://www.cnbc.com/2016/09/29/yen-swiss-franc-near-1-month-high-vs-dollar-as-risk-sentiment-sours.html

Euro hits two-month low vs Swiss franc on Deutsche Bank jitters

http://www.nasdaq.com/article/forex-yen-holds-weakness-as-cpi-household-spending-disappoint-cm686911

Yen holds weakness as CPI, household spending disappoint

Valuegrowth
02-10-2016, 01:32 PM
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2016-09-29/some-deutsche-bank-clients-said-to-reduce-collateral-on-trades

Cryan Defends Deutsche Bank as Some Clients Pare Back Exposure

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2016-10-01/most-read-on-bloomberg-deutsche-bank-turmoil-clinton-and-trump

Valuegrowth
04-10-2016, 06:19 PM
http://www.dallasnews.com/business/stock-market/2016/09/30/investment-quarterly-multiple-market-worries-bringing-bull-yet

Investment quarterly: Multiple market worries aren't bringing the bull down yet


http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2016-10-03/dollar-dominates-yen-after-factory-data-with-asian-futures-mixed

Dollar Climbs on Fed Bets as Australian Bonds Sink; Oil Retreats

Valuegrowth
08-10-2016, 08:59 AM
http://www.imf.org/en/News/Articles/2016/10/06/AM16-NA100616AsiaStillGrowthChampion

Asia Still Growth Champion, But Must Watch Its Step

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2016-10-07/some-worlds-best-investors-are-putting-their-money-unexpected-place

Some Of The World's Best Investors Are Putting Their Money In An Unexpected Place

Valuegrowth
11-10-2016, 08:17 PM
http://www.australianunity.com.au/about-us/news-and-views/news-folder/asian-small-cap-stocks-are-an-untapped-opportunity-for-australian-investors

Asian small cap stocks are an untapped opportunity for Australian investors

http://www.reuters.com/article/us-jamaica-index-msci-idUSKCN1270LT

MSCI: Will not include Jamaica in 'Frontier' index in November

Valuegrowth
24-10-2016, 11:48 AM
I found some interesting links.

http://www.investing.com/analysis/will-a-rising-us-dollar-crush-gold%E2%80%99s-fledgling-bull-200160131

Will A Rising U.S. Dollar Crush Gold’s Fledgling Bull?

http://www.forbes.com/sites/trangho/2016/09/29/how-to-invest-in-q4-2016-the-best-ideas-from-5-stock-market-pros/2/#35479d293230

How to Invest In Q4 2016: The Best Ideas from 5 Stock Market Pros


Invest in Asian Small-Caps
Invest in Chinese Internet Stocks
Hedge Your Portfolio with an Inverse ETF
Invest in the Consumer Discretionary Sector
Be Defensive, Avoid Commodities and Cyclical Stocks


There should be some opportunity in developed markets such as Australasia, Europe and the USA as well. Some has potential to hit all time high. Sectors such as food and restaurant, Tech and selected banking stocks should do well.

Valuegrowth
30-10-2016, 01:28 PM
http://news.morningstar.com/all/dow-jones/us-markets/201610282429/yen-remains-close-to-three-month-low-after-dollar-breaks-through-y105-update.aspx

Yen Remains Close to Three-Month Low After Dollar Breaks Through Y105 -- Update

Daytr
03-11-2016, 01:22 PM
Loving this pre-election volatility. Went long gold quite big a few weeks back looking at the up-coming election.
Mostly now out of the position. Might look to get back in on a pull back if we see it in the next day or two.
Picked up the pound at 1.2150 as it was looking massively oversold, had a nice bounce since and halved my decent position.
Will hold the rest to see if we test back toward 1.30.
And been picking up the DOW on the large swings. A little bit tentative on this bet with the Trump factor as potentially we could see a much larger shift lower on a Trump win. Mind you if Clinton wins then rates are probably going up sooner rather than later..

Valuegrowth
03-11-2016, 08:32 PM
Finally Dow dropped below 18000.Five stocks have been mainly responsible for the gains in the Dow Jones Industrial Average this year through October. They are: IBM, Caterpillar, 3M, UnitedHealth Group and Chevron Corp. Simply DOW can go up again when few stocks begin their uptrend again.

I believe once dust settle there could be opportunities in global markets. Anyway some analysts expected volatility or weak market until end of this year in developed markets and they forecasted positive outlook for Asia-ex Japan markets.

I also expect kind of Santa rally in developed markets such as NZ, USA, UK and Australia. December should be better than November. However, there could be some short term support for both silver and gold while having volatility. Defensive food stocks also will have demand.

https://www.poundsterlinglive.com/eur/5681-gbp-to-eur-rotten-day

Pound Continues to Defend Key Support Level Against Aggressive Euro
(https://www.poundsterlinglive.com/eur/5681-gbp-to-eur-rotten-day)
http://www.reuters.com/article/us-global-oil-idUSKBN12X02E

Oil prices tumble 3 percent on record U.S. crude build

http://www.agweb.com/article/analyst-too-much-grain-in-the-world-market-naa-ashley-davenport1-naa-ashley-davenport/

Analyst: Too Much Grain in the World Market

Valuegrowth
07-11-2016, 04:16 PM
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2016-11-06/mexico-peso-jumps-as-fbi-reaffirms-e-mails-view-yen-franc-sink

Mexican Peso Jumps With Asian Stocks on FBI Statement; Yen Sinks

Valuegrowth
15-11-2016, 06:39 PM
http://www.taipeitimes.com/News/biz/archives/2016/11/15/2003659273

Japan surprises with 0.5% rise in Q3

kiora
20-11-2016, 02:42 AM
http://s618.photobucket.com/user/Terrordales/media/Late%20Bay%20Stuff/Coyote-Light-Bulb-Moment.png.html
https://youtu.be/YgGvd1UPZ88

Valuegrowth
30-11-2016, 06:22 PM
https://www.thenews.com.pk/print/168713-Pakistans-stock-market-leaves-Indias-Chinas-in-the-dust-Forbes

Pakistan’s stock market leaves India’s, China’s in the dust: Forbes (https://www.thenews.com.pk/print/168713-Pakistans-stock-market-leaves-Indias-Chinas-in-the-dust-Forbes)

Valuegrowth
03-12-2016, 07:10 PM
One by one, underestimated stocks markets and currencies are bouncing back. Over estimated stock markets and currencies are having rough time. Many were bullish on YEN and bearish on Pound. Suddenly, pound became a bullish and Yen became a bearish.

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2016-11-27/yen-at-120-no-longer-a-lonely-call-for-analyst-who-got-it-right

Yen at 120 Lonely Call No More for Analyst Who Got It Right

https://www.poundsterlinglive.com/gbp-live-today/5839-pound-santa-rally

British Pound’s Santa Rally Forecast to Extend Beyond Christmas

Joshuatree
03-12-2016, 10:22 PM
This referendum in Italy right now could create havoc in mkts.Its the 8 th biggest economy and politically, structurally what a mess; changes Govt about once a year and its set up so the Govt can't enact anything anyway. A small excerpt from Maudlam Economics newsletter(Google it; its free)
Extend & Pretend, Italian-Style
I’ll cut to my conclusion: There is a high degree of probability (approaching 90%, I’d say) that Italy will experience a severe banking crisis in the next few quarters. Perhaps they can stave off the problem for a year, but something will have to be done about the banks. We’ll go into that later in the letter, since the plight of the banking system is the root cause of all the country’s other problems. Without a banking crisis, Italy would still be the political mess it has been for 65 years, but the banking mess turns the political mess into an economic mess.



An Ungovernable Mess
All these issues are part and parcel of Italy’s political dysfunction. Economic weakness flows out of a sclerotic, multi-layered government that finds it very easy to spend money and very hard to do anything else. The result is a bureaucracy that stifles commerce and massive government debt that retards economic growth. Weak, chaotic governance is a prime reason Italy has such high unemployment. Bailing out the banks will add to the debt – but the alternatives to saving them may be even worse.
Italy’s debt problem is not recent. When the Italians joined the euro they were able to enjoy low interest rates at both the national and personal level, so they ran up their debts. The problem is that the country can no longer devalue its way out of the problem. It is running a massive, and I mean truly massive, trade deficit with Germany and the rest of Europe.
And bank deposits and capital are simply flying out of Italy as we speak. We measure this by something called TARGET2 balances. Essentially, Italy’s TARGET2 balance is the money leaving Italy and going to other countries within the euro system. I should note that the chart below depicts the latest data but does not include the whisper numbers we are hearing that would make the chart look even worse. Remember, the US elections and the other political upsets have happened since the ECB published this chart in September. And the euro is falling out of bed.There is a significant chance Italy will decide to leave the Eurozone and/or the European Union in the next year or so. Is it likely? No, but we’ve seen less likely things happen recently. Just the discussion of the possibility could be destabilizing to markets that already have enough worries.
If we are lucky, Italy will decide quickly what to do and then do it in a planned, orderly fashion. That would, however, go against everything we know about Italy from experience.

So what is this weekend’s referendum supposedly about? Matteo Renzi, the prime minister, seeks to overhaul Italy’s political system with constitutional reforms. Presently, the national government has a bicameral parliament. Unlike in other countries, Italy’s two chambers are co-equal, and very little can happen unless they agree – which is apparently rare. This setup lets the bureaucracy run wild.
Renzi’s reform plan would reduce the senate from 315 elected members to 95 who would be chosen by regional assemblies and mayors, and five more senators who would be appointed by the president. The senate would lose most of its ability to block bills. The plan would also pull back certain powers the national government had given to some regions. The current system practically guarantees that no serious reforms can be passed, and Renzi is gambling his political future on changing that system.
When I was last in Italy, Renzi had been in power for just a few months. I and a friend met with their central bank and some of the politicians in Renzi’s leadership. They were all absolutely convinced that Renzi would be able to reform Italy. These were true believers.
Renzi correctly concluded that without the reforms Italy would be ungovernable, so he called for the referendum at what he thought was a propitious time – but then postponed it to the point where it now looks as though success may have slipped out of reach.
Separately, Renzi already pushed through another set of electoral reforms called the Italicum. It is complex, but the important feature of it is that it will enable a party that gets less than a majority of votes, and possibly a lot less, to get bonus seats in parliament and end up with firm control. Party leaders will have tremendous power under this system. Note that this measure was pushed through with the consent of both of the leading center-right and center-left parties in an effort to make sure that the growing minority parties couldn’t band together and form a government. Oops. It is now no longer certain that one of those “minority” parties (like the Five-Star Movement) wouldn’t be the leading vote getter. Certainly, such a party wouldn’t win a majority of votes, but it might succeed in fracturing the Italian political system even further."
Maudlam Economics newsletter (free)

Joshuatree
05-12-2016, 07:37 AM
Another bullet dodged; now we await Italian Referendum results
'The liberal majority pushes back': Europe celebrates defeat of far right in Austria (http://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/europe/austria-election-result-reaction-far-right-norbert-hofer-loser-a7455486.html)

Joshuatree
05-12-2016, 01:40 PM
A big NO unfortnately. could be chaotic for Italy and europe and on and on.
Italy's Brexit? Prime Minister Matteo Renzi defeated in referendum, exit polls suggest (https://www.google.co.nz/url?sa=t&rct=j&q=&esrc=s&source=web&cd=1&cad=rja&uact=8&ved=0ahUKEwjoiZmu9dvQAhVHNJQKHX1sARAQqQIIHDAA&url=http%3A%2F%2Fwww.stuff.co.nz%2Fworld%2Feurope% 2F87201362%2FItalys-Brexit-Prime-Minister-Matteo-Renzi-defeated-in-referendum-exit-polls-suggest&usg=AFQjCNETcVagaPkTsM7GLAPMXnwkJgVvCA&sig2=rD7rbpOuTvZjON4gvnatGg)

Valuegrowth
05-12-2016, 06:14 PM
Pound should get new life.

https://www.poundsterlinglive.com/eur/5842-anz-cross-of-the-week-gbp-to-eur

Pound to Euro Exchange Rate Outlook: GBP Still too Cheap say ANZ (https://www.poundsterlinglive.com/eur/5842-anz-cross-of-the-week-gbp-to-eur)

http://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-38204189

Italy referendum: PM Matteo Renzi resigns after clear referendum defeat

Valuegrowth
21-01-2017, 12:05 PM
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/money/investing/article-4141466/Are-brave-punt-frontier-markets.html

Valuegrowth
12-02-2017, 11:02 AM
https://www.investmentweek.co.uk/investment-week/news/3003784/barings-lee-the-inflection-point-that-will-see-china-bounce-back-in-2017

Valuegrowth
18-02-2017, 06:21 PM
It may be time to separate attractive individual sectors and stocks from the broader market. It may be also time to look for overlooked markets having attractive valuations.

Still Consumer staples should become one of the bullish sectors in global markets in 2017. We could see Merge and acquisitions as well. Following the move by Reckitt Benckiser to buy baby-food producer Mead Johnson Nutrition, we can see the second M & A deal now. US food giant Kraft Heinz initiated take over bid for consumer staples giant Unilever. Latter has rejected the bid.

Sectors to watch

Infrastructure, Financials, internet and consumer staples

Frontier markets to watch

Sri-Lanka, Bangladesh and Egypt

Emerging markets to watch (selected few attractive sectors)

China, India, Indonesia, Russia, South Africa and Brazil

Valuegrowth
08-04-2017, 08:17 AM
http://www.feedstuffs.com/news/fao-index-shows-global-food-price-decline-march

FAO index shows global food price decline in March (http://www.feedstuffs.com/news/fao-index-shows-global-food-price-decline-march)

http://citywire.co.uk/new-model-adviser/news/outlook-opportunities-abound-in-emerging-markets-local-currency-debt/a1005756

Outlook: Opportunities abound in emerging markets local currency debt

Valuegrowth
22-04-2017, 04:02 PM
Can the snap general election be a “game-changer” for both the UK's Brexit negotiations and sterling? I think so. The pound surged to a six-month high last week after announcement of a general election on June 8th.

Joshuatree
26-04-2017, 09:38 PM
All bets are off if Le Pen does a trump and wins

Why are world stocks at a record high - and how much longer will rally last? (http://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2017/04/25/world-stocks-record-high/)

Valuegrowth
27-04-2017, 07:14 AM
In my opinion, still uptrend is intact. Although we cannot predict top of any market we can reasonably expect some sort of pullback or volatility in global markets especially in overvalued markets. However, there will be demand for greatly discounted stocks. This may be time to rotate markets as well. As I said before it may be time to separate attractive individual sectors and stocks from the broader market and time to look for overlooked markets having attractive valuations.

BlackCross
17-06-2017, 09:04 AM
Europe (ex-UK) has performed magnificently over the last year as international investors looked for value. Still some there according to a few pundits. I'd prefer ETFs (IEUX.L for instance) to Investment Trusts now as most of the trusts are selling at NAV or above.

Valuegrowth
24-06-2017, 07:58 PM
Europe (ex-UK) has performed magnificently over the last year as international investors looked for value. Still some there according to a few pundits. I'd prefer ETFs (IEUX.L for instance) to Investment Trusts now as most of the trusts are selling at NAV or above.

Recently some global investors were distinguishing between the UK and the rest of Europe as part of a fundamental reassessment.However, as I said before there could be Brexit winners.

https://www.poundsterlinglive.com/gbp-live-today/7031-credit-suisse-bearishness-gbp-to-eur-and-usd

Valuegrowth
16-07-2017, 08:34 AM
http://www.greeleytribune.com/news/business/futures-file-grain-prices-sink-gas-prices-rise-with-summer-demand-u-s-dollar-hits-10-month-low

Grain prices sink, gas prices rise with summer demand; U.S. dollar hits 10-month low

(http://www.greeleytribune.com/news/business/futures-file-grain-prices-sink-gas-prices-rise-with-summer-demand-u-s-dollar-hits-10-month-low)https://www.fnlondon.com/articles/uk-stocks-held-back-by-stronger-pound-20170714

European stocks on track for best weekly performance in two months

Jonboyz
22-07-2017, 06:31 PM
The hedonist in me wants to buy in right how but warning bells ringing. Shiller graphs PE ratios as high as Black Tuesday crash.

A lot of hype in the market at moment.

I will hold my current shares but won't be buying until the correction or crash occurs. Whether that be next week or next year.

Baa_Baa
22-07-2017, 09:02 PM
VIX at record low. Won't end well. Might go long contract VIX, buy something 3-4 strikes out of the money 6-12 month. Just pondering at this stage.

Valuegrowth
17-03-2018, 10:31 AM
https://www.hellenicshippingnews.com/baltic-dry-index-falls-to-1143-down-7-points/

Baltic Dry Index falls to 1143, down 7 points

https://www.hellenicshippingnews.com/grains-wheat-prices-face-second-week-of-losses-on-record-world-supply-improved-weather/

GRAINS-Wheat prices face second week of losses on record world supply, improved weather

http://www.kitco.com/news/2018-03-16/Gold-Sells-Off-Hits-New-Low-For-The-Week-As-U-S-Dollar-Firms.html

Gold Sells Off, Hits New Low for the Week, As U.S. Dollar Firms

https://www.cnbc.com/2018/03/13/us-shale-oil-will-surge-to-nearly-7-million-barrels-a-day-in-april.html

US shale oil will surge to nearly 7 million barrels a day in April: Dept. of Energy forecast

http://money.cnn.com/2018/03/08/investing/jpmorgan-market-correction/index.html (http://money.cnn.com/2018/03/08/investing/jpmorgan-market-correction/index.html)

JPMorgan exec warns stock market could fall by 40%

http://business.financialpost.com/news/economy/china-banking-crisis-warning-signal-still-flashing-bis-says-1

Canada among three economies in world most at risk of banking crisis, BIS warns

Valuegrowth
23-03-2018, 10:33 PM
Will volatility and sell-off become new normal? Will trade war create demand for selected new set of sectors and stocks?

Few companies and sectors came into my mind. One is Agri sector in Brazil. Yen is also rising. Seed producers and animal breeders are rising in China and they have hit the 10 percent daily limit increase. Some Food stuff companies are also rising. Investors in the USA moved toward more defensive, yield-sensitive industries such as utilities. In short, there is a silver lining in the trade drama.

https://www.marketwatch.com/story/worried-about-a-trade-war-stock-market-investors-should-think-small-2018-03-02

Worried about a trade war? Stock-market investors should think small.

http://www.kitco.com/news/2018-03-22/Equities-Commodities-Dented-By-Trade-War-Worries.html

Equities, Commodities Dented By Trade War Worries

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2018-03-22/here-are-u-s-targets-most-vulnerable-to-china-trade-retaliation

Here Are U.S. Targets Most Vulnerable to China Trade Retaliation

https://www.tvnz.co.nz/one-news/new-zealand/kiwi-dollar-down-yen-and-greenback-after-trumps-china-tariff-announcement

Kiwi dollar down on yen and greenback after Trump's China tariff announcement

https://www.smh.com.au/world/asia/australia-s-worst-nightmare-to-be-caught-in-cross-fire-of-trade-war-20180323-p4z5xm.html (https://www.smh.com.au/world/asia/australia-s-worst-nightmare-to-be-caught-in-cross-fire-of-trade-war-20180323-p4z5xm.html)

Australia's worst nightmare: to be caught in cross fire of trade war

Valuegrowth
17-04-2018, 05:20 AM
After sometime there is a demand for various types of food stocks in the USA.

https://www.marketwatch.com/story/dow-futures-rise-150-points-as-syria-fears-fade-with-bank-of-america-due-to-report-2018-04-16

Stocks rally; Dow set for first close above key level in more than a month

https://www.businessdailyafrica.com/markets/capital/Kenya-excels-among-its-frontier-market-peers/4259442-4395240-p68jd9z/index.html

Kenya excels among its frontier market peers

http://citywireselector.com/news/top-performing-pms-reveal-favourite-frontier-bets/a1110291

Top-performing PMs reveal favourite frontier bets

https://farmlead.com/blog/grain-markets-today/profit-taking-grain-prices-chicago/

APRIL 13: PROFIT TAKING HITS GRAIN PRICES IN CHICAGO

http://www.world-grain.com/articles/news_home/World_Grain_News/2018/04/From_the_editor_Russias_agricu.aspx?ID=%7B73C751B6-3589-40A4-9E52-2C86911D33BF%7D&cck=1

From the editor: Russia's agricultural renaissance also includes feed

https://www.marketsnow.com/daily-updates/canadian-dollar/2018-04-16

Canadian dollar weaker as crude oil prices reverse

https://www.investing.com/news/stock-market-news/dean-foods-falls-to-6year-low-as-milk-demand-keeps-sinking-1396810

Dean Foods Falls to 6-Year Low as Milk Demand Keeps Sinking

Valuegrowth
28-04-2018, 04:09 PM
Markets such as Pakistan, Vietnam and Philippines hit all-time high. After that Pakistan market ended as one of the worst markets in 2017. Vietnam and Philippines markets are also falling now. Investors and traders had some great opportunity in above frontier markets over the last five years. It seems they are going to get their bear market after their great bull markets. It is time to find out some new bull markets.

https://www.philstar.com/business/2018/04/23/1808406/why-philippine-stock-market-dropping

JBmurc
02-05-2018, 10:55 PM
OCT17 ....is couple qtr old-- but very good article



The financial markets currently are much more focused on the shiny veneer. Equity markets are simply not suffering any downside price action to speak of and volatility is essentially at record low levels. This seems dichotomous with the vulnerabilities in the real economy. We believe that without real change in the way the economy is managed and the way monetary policy is conducted, the system will breakdown at some point.

If policymakers get ahead of the curve, and start implementing wide ranging reforms, then the process of tackling the real problems will be a lot less painful. If, however, we remain on the currency policy setting, we fear that we are headed for a great reset that will be painful for the vast majority. At the moment, policymakers are still wedded to their models which even they worry are broken. As a result, we fear that we will have to endure a great reset.

The timing of such a reset remains as elusive as ever, and with centrals bankers still trying to inflate everything, it is possible that the reset is years away. However, markets have a history of sucking in the vast majority of players just before the turning point. Anecdotal evidence suggests that in the big picture, more and more investors are getting swept up every month by the most hated bull market in history. All we can say is that the higher the market goes without an underlying improvement in the health of the broad economy, the worse the next bear market will be.

Stewart Richardson
RMG Wealth Management






https://www.marketviews.com/rmg/central-bankers-face-a-crisis-of-confidence-as-models-fail-ft-article/

Valuegrowth
11-05-2018, 06:30 PM
Iran Deal: Short term winners and losers

Winners
Russia, the USA, Turkey and China in some trading areas. For example Russia will export more oil and Agriculture products. Europe also could benefit if they get more trade.

Losers
Iran, Europe, especially for some companies in Germany, France, Italy and the UK. Some companies in the USA as well.

https://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/news/article.cfm?c_id=3&objectid=12048585 (https://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/news/article.cfm?c_id=3&objectid=12048585)
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/audio/2018-05-10/iran-will-still-sell-a-ton-of-oil-to-china
https://www.verdict.co.uk/global-leaders-react-to-us-withdrawal-from-iran-nuclear-deal/

In short, some countries will get more trading opportunity and some countries will get less trading opportunity.

Stock market

Some stocks to watch

https://www.cnbc.com/2018/04/30/food-photos-music-millennial-stocks-could-see-big-moves-on-earnings.html

Food, Photos and music

https://www.nytimes.com/reuters/2018/05/10/business/10reuters-usa-stocks.html

Wall Street Rallies and Apple Approaches $1 Trillion Value

https://blogs.wsj.com/frontiers/2018/05/05/this-week-on-the-frontiers-may-5th-2018/ (https://blogs.wsj.com/frontiers/2018/05/05/this-week-on-the-frontiers-may-5th-2018/)

This Week on the Frontiers, May 5th 2018

Currency Market

https://www.fxstreet.com/news/us-dollar-tumbles-below-9300-daily-lows-201805091343

US Dollar tumbles below 93.00, daily lows

https://www.poundsterlinglive.com/eur/9045-gbp-to-eur-at-parity-warning

Pound Sterling / Euro Parity "isn’t Impossible" says City of London FX Veteran

Oil Market

https://www.cbsnews.com/news/time-to-freak-out-about-oil-prices/

Time to freak out about oil prices

Grain Market

https://www.manitobacooperator.ca/daily/u-s-grains-wheat-slips-on-bearish-usda-crop-forecast?module=related&pgtype=article&i (https://www.manitobacooperator.ca/daily/u-s-grains-wheat-slips-on-bearish-usda-crop-forecast?module=related&pgtype=article&i)=

U.S. grains: Wheat slips on bearish USDA crop forecast

https://www.agweb.com/blog/blue-line-express/daily-grain-market-update-51018/ (https://www.agweb.com/blog/blue-line-express/daily-grain-market-update-51018/)

Daily Grain Market Update (5.10.18) (https://www.agweb.com/blog/blue-line-express/daily-grain-market-update-51018/)

http://www.world-grain.com/articles/news_home/World_Grain_News/2018/05/India_grain_production_forecas.aspx?ID=%7B847E6C2E-FB5A-4FEA-8B91-1C9EFF720D1B%7D&cck=1

India grain production forecast looks promising

http://www.world-grain.com/articles/news_home/World_Grain_News/2018/05/USDA_forecasts_record_wheat_ha.aspx?ID={D5CB59C7-1A7F-4A45-9955-194873A62092} (http://www.world-grain.com/articles/news_home/World_Grain_News/2018/05/USDA_forecasts_record_wheat_ha.aspx?ID=%7bD5CB59C7-1A7F-4A45-9955-194873A62092%7d)

USDA forecasts record wheat harvest for Argentina

kiora
17-05-2018, 12:11 AM
Oopsy
What's around this corner?
https://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/news/article.cfm?c_id=3&objectid=12052679

Valuegrowth
18-05-2018, 09:53 PM
I saw somewhere that company with a strong balance sheet is "antifragile." The word -- coined by best-selling author and trader Nassim Taleb.“Try to invest in companies that have some trouble in their past and have come back from it,” Taleb recommends in his book Antifragile. Taleb says this is important after 2008.

It is natural to have pullback once markets become over extended and overcrowded. Asian markets such as Pakistan, Philippine, Vietnam, Indonesia and Thailand have slowed down after their mega bull run during last five years. In addition to above frontier and emerging markets, Poland and Argentina also had some great bull markets. Argentina market is also slowing. Above markets were darlings of fund managers and investors during last five years and some markets ended up with too hot. As a result of it, Investors turned into strong profit taking and selling stocks heavily. Investors and funds are looking for new markets now. Indian rupee is also having some pressure again. Currency performance in Turkey is worst. Markets which had good run over the last three to five years are having some pressure. Exception is overlooked and less crowded markets. Next winning stocks and markets could come from overlooked and less crowded areas and markets. Going forward strong balance sheet firms could dominate specially during second half of this year.


Oopsy
What's around this corner?
https://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/news/article.cfm?c_id=3&objectid=12052679