Power Company Index

[bull....]

Ive created a Composite index of the Power companies listed on the NZX, these include CEN,MELCA,MRP,VCT AND TPW

We will use it as a tracking index to see if we can predict the election outcome

5339

[winner69]

Don't look like much of an investment over the last year

Can't quite read the numbers - what was % fall from that high in march/April to the low in November or so...... And how mc recovered

[bull....]

Hi Winner,

18% down roughy from top to bottom of the represented data, 5% recovery from oversold conditions in Dec

whats interesting is the 5% fall in april on labours/ green policy announcement and the retest of highs as people brought thinking they got a bargain and then the failure in may which started the trend down.
Notice also labour reaffirmed there policy last week and the index topped out from recovery

the index doesnt include dividends, it is only price and volume based

[Harvey Specter]

Ive created a Composite index of the Power companies listed on the NZX, these include CEN,MELCA,MRP,VCT AND TPW

We will use it as a tracking index to see if we can predict the election outcome

5339I assume Labour made the announcement in April.

Did you include VCT for a particular reason, it being a network co, not a gentailers. Labours plan doesn't effect them does it, even though Wolak say it is only the transmission that should be regulated.

[bull....]

Hi Harvey

Ill update the chart once a month or if something interesting turns up and ill remove vct when i update it next, probably only included by association like you could include infratil by association.


from wiki -

The main purpose of an election stock market is to predict the election outcome, such as the share of the popular vote or share of seats each political party (http://www.sharetrader.co.nz/wiki/Political_party) receives in a legislature (http://www.sharetrader.co.nz/wiki/Legislature) or parliament (http://www.sharetrader.co.nz/wiki/Parliament). Efficient markets are very good at reflecting all available information, often reflecting information faster than opinion polls (http://www.sharetrader.co.nz/wiki/Opinion_poll), which take several days to complete and process. Traders also have a strong financial incentive to reflect their true opinion about the election outcome regardless of their political preferences.

[winner69]

Thats why betting agencies usually tell you whose going to win elections beforehand. People talking with money gets the real story

Pity we only have ipredict as a local indicator but they usually pretty good (National to win at the moment)

Last election centrebet in Australia ran a book on the nz election

[blackcap]

Thats why betting agencies usually tell you whose going to win elections beforehand. People talking with money gets the real story

Pity we only have ipredict as a local indicator but they usually pretty good (National to win at the moment)

Last election centrebet in Australia ran a book on the nz election

Exactly winner. When money talks thats when you get the real opinion as it were. I think Centrebet will be offering a book again this time around. And no doubt Ipredict will also have plenty of interest shown so these indicators will be more accurate than polls. The last Australian election was also well predicted by Centrebet and Ipredict.

[winner69]

Some companies take a 'betting agency' approach to come up with their forecasts

Interesting topic, sort of combining the wisdom of many and monetary incentives to get a good result.