Monadelphous Group (MND)

[soulman]

No thread on this. Quite suprising. MND has cost me a bit of money when I trade them in the high $20's but hey, you can't win them all.

Trading Halt re: a big contract win. Just a bit of common sense, FGE demise will no doubt benefit other contractors, even in the mining downturn. I mean look at BHP, RIO, FMG and WPL. All their shares are booming. So there are still activities there.

Is there value in MND? High div yield, net cash position at record high of $188 mil.

[soulman]

There used to be a thread (and probably a very long one too) as it was referred to in the following post back in 2005. Its obviously one of those threads that got deleted when the original poster closed their account. Again, deleting threads SHOULD NOT BE ALLOWED!

http://www.sharetrader.co.nz/showthread.php?1938-The-problem-with-fundamental-analysis&p=45380&viewfull=1#post45380

Up 6.5% on a big contract win. KW, how do you rate MND?

[sharer]

Yes, Monadelphous seems to me a very good investment for my longterm portfolio. I think i was one of the contributors to the previous thread, & i agree with KW we need an update to the forum rules to prevent all our cumulative wisdom and equally instructive unwisdom from just disappearing. It's very frustrating.
I probably disclosed my entry to MND many years ago, i think quite soon after it floated perhaps, initially because i was looking for a substitute for the old Hirequip, which i was quite keen on at the time. However minor holders like me were forced out of it by one of our endemic combinations of old school tie & general nzx insider rorts that periodically disrupts our best laid plans. So in a state of low dudgeon i took the money off to Oz looking for another similar business. "Monodelphous" appealed to my whimsical scientific bent initially, but as i read about it i thought this was much better for geeks like me because it had to be there, and working hard, even when the main mining companies might be in a downturn. Even temporarily closed or suspended operations still require ongoing maintenance. As MND performed well and gained more contracts they acquired increasing business spreading from western origins to now major enterprises all across Australia. As far as i've noticed they haven't yet made the mistake of spreading offshore & getting too diffuse. They have a good regular dividend, & i recall being enchanted to find they were paying almost double the yield of equivalent money put into BHP etc, while having in my view just as good or better business prospects. Accordingly on the rather infrequent occasions when i have dividends accumulating from the likes of bhp etc i have waited patiently for chances to buy another few hundred MND at much higher prices than i started with. Now there is a quite useful looking pile of them producing a respectable fraction of our overall investment income. They do move about quite strongly in price & at least a few on the old thread were interested in trading them; i've so far resisted the temptation, apart from shaving off a few peaks to finance later expansions when the "runs" expire. I've never been able to spot what sets a run off, but they are increasingly frequent in the past year or so, & sometimes i think it begins to look a bit like CSL, another one of my very few select enthusiasms across the ditch.

[sharer]

I...
On an FA basis its not that cheap considering the forecast is for declining revenue and earnings. MND maintains quite a high payout ratio (80-93% historically) so any hit to earnings will see the dividend amount likely reduced too.

It has been a strong financial performer over the years, and definitely one worth watching to see if it can take advantage of the market flushing out the weaker players like FMG. Ultimately after every bust the strong get stronger and the weak go to the wall. MND may need a bit more time to see if its one of the winners.

I wonder if this is the explanation for the very disappointing run down in share price. Currently lower than i recall during past 3 years, & still falling !

[sharer]

Signs of renewed interest in MND since they announced new investments in managing public water infrastructure in both Oz & NZ.
About 925 - 930 this afternoon.

[soulman]

Dropped out of ASX 100 in todays announcement. Does it mean it goes to ASX 200 automatically ? The announcement triggerred a 4.5% rise in their share price today.

Half year result was OK with current div yield north of 9% FF. Other juicy mining services coy with high yield and net cash position include GNG and SDM.

[Joshuatree]

The quality M/S sector stocks on another run up; good trend to ride atm.

[Joshuatree]

MND and LYL form joint venture Download Document 247.18KB (http://hotcopper.com.au/documentdownload?id=uOMxKKzFkiWRTLKhOROKAxjvFDZpi1 y5wVOUlOh08dtNT7rIHoAcVxJgOFHhlFA%3D). S/P has gone up 20% Ex divi despite having been shorted 11.4%!!.

[Joshuatree]

since my last post our MND shares have gone from $9.82 to $13.75 No job to big or small for MND :D 2 recent contracts Download Document 180.93KB (https://hotcopper.com.au/documentembed?id=uOMxKKzFkiWRTLKhOROKAxjvTDYC4Qq7z haZrfl9ke92GA%3D%3D)
Download Document 180.29KB (https://hotcopper.com.au/documentembed?id=uOMxKKzFkiWRTLKhOROKAxjvTDYC4Q6%2 FzhaZrfl9ke92GA%3D%3D)
and update including sorting out the water prob in hastings and P north.

Contracts Update (https://hotcopper.com.au/threads/3480987/)

[Joshuatree]

PDF (http://www.asx.com.au/asx/statistics/displayAnnouncement.do?display=pdf&idsId=01868451) Bloody tedious ;just one more $170 mill contract:t_up:

[Joshuatree]

S/P as low as $13.35 now $13.81 on results which are just a tad lower then 2016. 40% increase in staff for lots of contacts coming through and switching from dropping O&G sector to infrastructure, mining working. Outlook good but competitive. Been some shorting going on; burnt.

2017 Full Year Results Presentation (https://hotcopper.com.au/threads/3624366/)

[stoploss]

JT , today would bring a smile to your face ...waiting for this to rub off onto a few of the small cap mining service companies .....

[Joshuatree]

Thanks SL ;up another 8% today too:). Two others i have ,SRG and TPP both lifting nicely atm.

[Joshuatree]

MND to a new high. More contracts and with huge infrastructure spend planned in Aus the contracts will keep coming.Think when the mining sector spend really takes off again then MND will be in a double whammy sweet spot along with its increasing recurring servicing sector.
Contracts Update (https://hotcopper.com.au/threads/3711174/)

[Joshuatree]

Rio TintoSales and marketing
" China’s steel industry is undergoing a structural change.
o Removal of less efficient steel-making capacity and strong demand is supporting steel pricing
and currently provides a robust backdrop for high quality iron ore.
 Shipment guidance for 2018 remains unchanged at between 330 million and 340 million tonnes.





Expected spending of ~$2.2 billion on replacement mines over the next three years including initial spending on the Koodaideri,
West Angelas and Robe Valley developments.



Sustaining capital spending of ~$1 billion per year for the next three years in the Pilbara."

BHP , new $3.2 billion iron ore project too.

Looks like a good few years coming for M/S companies as the cycle enters an active up period. Holding MND indirectly, SRG and a few TPP. What are you into M/S wise.?

[Joshuatree]

Not forgetting another high activity sector MND is also exposed to
Zenviron secures Lal Lal Wind Farm contract 3 pages 216.0KB (https://www.asx.com.au/asx/statistics/displayAnnouncement.do?display=pdf&idsId=01991600)

[Joshuatree]

Great read
https://www.lowyinstitute.org/sites...ng China’s Belt and Road Initiative_WEB_1.pdf (https://www.lowyinstitute.org/sites/default/files/documents/Understanding%20China%E2%80%99s%20Belt%20and%20Roa d%20Initiative_WEB_1.pdf)

[Joshuatree]

$15.62 up 4.4% on good results. The newer maintenance division growing fast ,ably filling the hole as the large oil/gas projects finish.



Download Document 1.3MB (https://hotcopper.com.au/documentembed?id=uOMxKKzFkiWRTLKhOROKAxjvTDYC6gu0z RmZrfl9ke92GA%3D%3D)

[Joshuatree]

$320 mill in work announced in last few days and a 6 month 32c div announced.Cycle looks strong for MND.

[Joshuatree]

Thinking about getting back in again.S/p down nearly another 10% today to $8.02 2016 prices! A huge infra spend coming up in Aus and MND is a best in breed business and things should work out here, MND and RIO go back a long way

Download Document 175.99KB (https://hotcopper.com.au/documentembed?id=uOMxKKzFkiWRTLKhOROKAxjvTDYD6we5z BaZrfl9ke92GA%3D%3D)

[bullfrog]

Another big contract win, but not sure about this sector, material supply and labour issues with Covid maybe?

I assume they put in the lowest price tender, would prefer cost plus, less risk for the contractor, and I wonder what tags they’ve put in for Covid. Got burnt with mpg, so on my watch list for now. Would like to see the detail but commercially sensitive I guess.