Conviction List ASX

[noodles]

While the ASX comp is great to see other poster's favorites stocks, it is just a point in time. I'd like to start a new thread that allows the poster to remove/add stocks from that list. Additionally, there is no need to limit the selection to 5. This thread does not try to replace the comp and should not reduce it's prestige. It is just for a different purpose. Personally, I read want to see what some individual posters are into at the moment.

So here is my original list:


CGO
CKF
FSA
AZV
SOM


And now, my new conviction list is:

CGO, CKF, SOM, AIK

Notes:
1.Dropped FSA because of growth concerns
2.Dropped AZV for technical reasons
3.AIK added, see the thread for reasons http://www.sharetrader.co.nz/showthread.php?9532-AIK-Armidale-Investment-Corporation-Limited&p=452041&viewfull=1#post452041

[mark100]

At this time of year I lose a lot of conviction on a particular stock until the numbers released or guidance is given in the lead to reporting. Stocks that have had news flow that I like and hold are AEF, BGL, HFA, AWN, VSC, CGO, MFG, GBT

Also have AFJ and VED from IPO

A lot of my others are yet to report

[mark100]

Looks like CGO is on Pie's conviction list also

[noodles]

Looks like CGO is on Pie's conviction list also
Yep, I'm happy to be in good company. I admire their ability to pick great stocks before they hit the mainstream.

Any changes to your list Mark?

[Huang Chung]

I'm attracted to companies with relatively low PEs and high ROE. That was the attraction of SNL in the low to mid dollar range last year. Now the market has caught on, and pushed the stock up to around $2.40 with a PE of about 15.....reckon full value has been well and truly reached here for the time being.

With a low PE and high ROE in mind, I was impressed with Jeremy Hook's comments on Sky's Your Money Your Call program last week where he said he looks for stocks where the ROE is at least twice the PE. That metric really struck a chord with me.

I've (subconsciously) been accumulating a few under the radar stocks with such metrics.

These are:

Seymour White (SWL). Road and bridge builder mainly operating in Qld and NSW.
Current Federal government is making a lot of noises about spending on
infrastructure. Risks are that these intentions actually translate to real work, and
that SWL is able to win it's fair share. Also conscious that some mining services
companies scrambling for work my try to move into SWL's territory, resulting in margin compression. Recently diversified into micro tunneling through the acquisition of Rob Carr.

Saunders International (SND). Specialist engineering firm that makes and services
the largefuel tanks you see at ports and fuel depots. Also Does maintenance work at some oil refineries. The shut down of the Kernell oil refinery (where they
do maintenance work) is a likely negative, but there is likely to be a lot of work
modifying fuel infrastructure to handle more imported refined fuels. Been going
since the 1950s, so they must know a thing or two about keeping their small
customer base happy.

Nick Scali (NCK). Furniture retailer with a 50 year history. Much, much smaller
than Harvey Norman, and only has around 30 stores. Will be entering WA for the
first time in the next 12 months or so. Seems like there is a lot of room to grow
the business further by rolling stores out into new locations. Main risk is probably
a higher interest rate environment down the road. Recently rising $A is probably
an unexpected bonus, as most of their product is imported.

[Huang Chung]

Nick Scali defies posts good trading results despite all the doom and gloom surrounding discretionary retail.

http://stocknessmonster.com/news-item?S=NCK&E=ASX&N=803744

Happy to keep holding.

[noodles]

While the ASX comp is great to see other poster's favorites stocks, it is just a point in time. I'd like to start a new thread that allows the poster to remove/add stocks from that list. Additionally, there is no need to limit the selection to 5. This thread does not try to replace the comp and should not reduce it's prestige. It is just for a different purpose. Personally, I read want to see what some individual posters are into at the moment.

So here is my original list:


CGO
CKF
FSA
AZV
SOM


And now, my new conviction list is:

CGO, CKF, SOM, AIK

Notes:
1.Dropped FSA because of growth concerns
2.Dropped AZV for technical reasons
3.AIK added, see the thread for reasons http://www.sharetrader.co.nz/showthread.php?9532-AIK-Armidale-Investment-Corporation-Limited&p=452041&viewfull=1#post452041

A few changes:
1. Dropped AIK because the Riverwise business is stalling
2. Dropped SOM. I decided that the lack of earnings were too much of a risk in what is becoming a more risk adverse investment environment.
3. Added MNY. Have been watching for a while. They just had an upgrade. It shows they are on target to make brokers aggressive FY15 earnings estimates
4. Added back FSA. Another profit upgrade. Let's hope it will be because they have increased their loan book

CKF recently reported. All on track there. Pe<10
Awaiting CGO results. Expect a weaker second half but stronger fy15 (all about the US)

So my current conviction lists is:
CKF, FSA, CGO, MNY

[DarkHorse]

CPT Global (CGO) fell 10% today on low turnover. It looks like a bargain on c6% yield with traction gained in the US - do you still like it noodles and mark100?

[noodles]

CPT Global (CGO) fell 10% today on low turnover. It looks like a bargain on c6% yield with traction gained in the US - do you still like it noodles and mark100?
No. I sold a while back. Earnings are too lumpy. I'm surprised the market has been so forgiving.

I now only CKF out of that list above. Other holds are DDR, LHC, PGC, and SDI.

[DarkHorse]

Cheers noodles. I also hold CKR - nice dividend and fairly low risk without the current inflated prices of larger steady dividend payers
Which of the other 4 would you say most warrant some research?
At a glance PGC earnings look pretty 'lumpy' too - if you have time I'd be interested to learn from your analysis in terms of why it still measures up for you whereas CGO doesn't.

[noodles]

Cheers noodles. I also hold CKR - nice dividend and fairly low risk without the current inflated prices of larger steady dividend payers
Which of the other 4 would you say most warrant some research?
At a glance PGC earnings look pretty 'lumpy' too - if you have time I'd be interested to learn from your analysis in terms of why it still measures up for you whereas CGO doesn't.
Lumpy earnings for PGC: It is a good question. I have only held PGC since July, so perhaps I am a little uninformed. I sold CGO after the recent August result.

Which wants warrant more research? I think SDI and PGC have the most short term potential. There is a large holder selling SDI down. I don't expect any appreciation until the Half year result. PGC could be rerated when another acquisition comes along.

[DarkHorse]

Thanks noodles, will have a look into those. Nice to have a few healthcare stocks to balance out the KFC - or perhaps benefit from it :)

[trackers]

My only conviction share is AMI

- ASX's only listed gold, zinc and lead producer.
- Has just gone into production, ahead of every schedule set and with zero problems. grades are all ahead of expectations
- Hedged at US$1,500
- Cash costs of AU$395/oz after Pb/Zn credits....
- Set for a big JORC upgrade in the short term (current is years old with continued exploration success since)
- Phase 2 production will include copper from Nymagee, fully funded by Glencore
- Quite possibly the next Cobar CSA mine
- Ongoing exploration success - see posts below

Every time I look at it I just shake my head in disbelief. The first full quarter of production ending March 2015 will be an eye opener for the market I believe

[trackers]

Sorry, copied the wrong one, lol..

9.0m @ 32.6g/t Au, 1.3% Pb and 2.3% Zn from 195m, including
1.0m @ 259g/t Au, 1.5% Pb and 2.5% Zn

17.1m @ 14.8g/t Au, 168g/t Ag, 15.9% Pb and 15.2% Zn

etc

http://www.stocknessmonster.com/news-item?S=AMI&E=ASX&N=690375

I wish they'd just do an Au equiv number

[trackers]

Thanks Snapiti, always keen for a second opinion and to see if there's anything missed - I guess there's still a lot of unknowns around the production, so I guess its fair people are hanging about to see firm numbers. target recovery is 94% for gold which is pretty ambitious - I think I read somewhere that the grade to ROM is better than expected, but that could well have been in relation to the zinc and lead