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silu
18-03-2014, 11:45 AM
http://www.stuff.co.nz/business/industries/9839377/Hirepool-poised-for-300m-NZX-float

This quipped my interest soley on the fact that I have a Hirepool close to my work and it seems like a busy place. A few of my mates have used their services as well in the past and have nothing negative to say.

percy
18-03-2014, 01:13 PM
When ever I have hired equipment I have always been impressed with the quality and service.
I had Hirequip shares years ago and seem to remember doing well with them.
Noted Hirequip then got into problems and were brought out by Hirepool.
However the fundamentals will have to be extremely good to tempt me to buy a business being floated off by private equity.

Snow Leopard
09-06-2014, 12:42 PM
Hirepool confirms big IPO (http://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/news/article.cfm?c_id=3&objectid=11270485)

Best Wishes
Paper Tiger

Harvey Specter
09-06-2014, 01:04 PM
Definately on - they need to sell it quick before profits drop even more ;)

winner69
09-06-2014, 01:08 PM
Hirepool confirms big IPO (http://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/news/article.cfm?c_id=3&objectid=11270485)

Best Wishes
Paper Tiger

Is the Best Wishes a comment re this IPO mate?

$300m for $150m of sales and $25m profit (next year) makes this the bargain of the century.

Problem to me is the chequered history of listed hire firms .....Hirequip / Coates Hire and could even throw in Boom

But this time it's different ...the private equity outfit has sorted everything out and Hirepool all fired up to make everybody a fortune.

Prospectus will make a good read.

winner69
09-06-2014, 01:35 PM
Suppose they will use the words ICONIC NEW ZEALAND BUSINESS as well

Beagle
09-06-2014, 01:46 PM
Feltex was an iconic new zealand business too and they're still litigating the B.S. that was in that prospectus. Heaps of extra caution is warranted when a private equity firm is on the other side of the transaction. Fonterra's payout falling, Reserve bank arguably taking an excessivly cautious approach to managing the economy, is that smell of the economy's growth slowing I detect wafting around in the wind ?

silu
16-06-2014, 12:34 PM
Date set for July 11 IPO
http://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/news/article.cfm?c_id=3&objectid=11274940

Joshuatree
16-06-2014, 12:59 PM
If the profit is really going to do a BIG JUMP to $25 million next year(the carrot) why sell now; call me cynical.

winner69
16-06-2014, 01:23 PM
If the profit is really going to do a BIG JUMP to $25 million next year(the carrot) why sell now; call me cynical.

Yep ....huge margin expansion. The previous management must have stuffed up completely

Leaving $85m debt in the company as well .....whatever that means

But looking at all the pretty pictures and charts in the prospectus showing how busy they going to be over the next few years this is going to be a goldmine.

Harvey Specter
16-06-2014, 02:01 PM
It would be interesting to see how much of their (recent) income has been from Christchurch as in a couple of years, a large portion of that will disappear.

I dont think I will bother looking at this one (ie. the prospectus) unless I start hearing that it is a good deal. I dont think it is an industry I want to be in.

Anyone see big positives?

Beagle
16-06-2014, 02:28 PM
Yep ....huge margin expansion. The previous management must have stuffed up completely

Leaving $100m debt in the company as well .....whatever that means

But looking at all the pretty pictures and charts in the prospectus showing how busy they going to be over the next few years this is going to be a goldmine.

Have you got a link to the online offer doc's mate ?

RGR367
16-06-2014, 02:29 PM
........
Anyone see big positives?

No, not even a small positive at this point. Won't bother too about this one.

winner69
16-06-2014, 02:33 PM
Have you got a link to the online offer doc's mate ?

http://www.business.govt.nz/companies/app/service/services/documents/BBF7815A5D00234578E2967F68323B01

winner69
16-06-2014, 02:34 PM
No, not even a small positive at this point. Won't bother too about this one.

It's got POSITIVE INCOME!!!!!!!

Harvey Specter
16-06-2014, 02:42 PM
It's got POSITIVE INCOME!!!!!!!Isn't PROFIT (or net income if you so choose) falling?

winner69
16-06-2014, 03:51 PM
Isn't PROFIT (or net income if you so choose) falling?

No no Harvey

EBIT from 2011 thru 2013 has been $11 m, $17m, and $21m and forecast to be $25m in 2014 and then $41m in 2015. All pro-froma numbers so must be good indication of real numbers eh

Pretty good eh

dingoNZ
16-06-2014, 03:52 PM
Any ideas when the prospectus will be put out?

Edit: Just saw this - http://www.business.govt.nz/companies/app/service/services/documents/BBF7815A5D00234578E2967F68323B01

Beagle
16-06-2014, 04:42 PM
Okay...so based on their forecasts, (which I have an issue with) the issue is priced at between a PE of 11.2 - 13.6.
The issue I have is they are assumming GDP growth at a rate I don't agree with. The Reserve bank slamming on the brakes, (with I would argue, almost reckless abandon and a rear-ward focus), and is already having quite an effect on consumer and business confidence and that's before last week's increase and next month's projected increase. That and Fontera's much lower forecasted price next year will have quite an effect on the economy...Rock star economy...yeah right, hand me another Tui.

PE is too high for a cylical business that has a chequered track record.
My experience with hire companies is that I used to be very good mates for a very long time with the accountant at Henderson Rentals when it was privatly owned, (now part of this float). I ended up marrying the girl he was going out with so needless to say we're not mates anymore LOL.

Anyway...Look, these companies are really a very, very cylical business, when the economy is going well, they go well, when not, they do very badly and re-sale of used hire equipment is very seriously affected. Its always about what you can re-sell used hire equipment for...that's what I was told over and over again. Any old fool can buy new equipment and haggle a dicount of retail.

I also have an issue with how much temporary demand is being caused by the Christchurch re-build and while this may be of assistance to projected figures within the projection timeframe, who's too say how Hirepool's business will be effected when you strip out this one-off event ?

Best comparison too how cylical these sort of business's are is the airline industry and its there I look too for comparable metrics. We have the national carrier, well managed with a modern fleet and with some even more efficient planes coming, well establised in a classic "moat" poisition trading on a current year PE of 10 and likely to be on a PE of 8.5 or thereabouts based on my own assumption of circa $350m earnings in 2015.

With Air's great track record, financial strength and credibility trading on a forecast PE of 8.5-9 times why would you bother with a hire company with a chequered track record being sold down by private equity at 11.2-13.6 times forward earnings that contain arguably questionable projections ?

Projections are being made without even having 2014's earnings actually locked in !! I usually have an issue with projections based on projected 2014 figures this year without said 2014 earnings actually being audited and in the books. Too much guesswork involved.

If I'm forced too look into the crystal ball of 2015 earnings I'd prefer to extrapolate out on a company like Air New Zealand who has an extremly long trading history to provide some reliability to the process.

I'm out and will buy more Air New Zealand instead.

Harvey Specter
16-06-2014, 05:27 PM
No no Harvey

EBIT from 2011 thru 2013 has been $11 m, $17m, and $21m and forecast to be $25m in 2014 and then $41m in 2015. All pro-froma numbers so must be good indication of real numbers eh

Pretty good ehmy mistake, it was income (or Revenue) that dropped this year.

I agree with most of what Roger said (except stealing a mates misses), especially re short term impact if Christchurch.

If you do go in, have an exit strategy to bail before things start to go bad.

Beagle
16-06-2014, 05:49 PM
He wasn't married to her, she wanted to trade him in anyway :)

percy
16-06-2014, 05:51 PM
Thank you Roger for sharing your very clear thoughts with us.
Very valid points.
I wonder if the "big" money is in the "big" equipment that Porter Hire seem to have tied up?I see a lot of their equipment about.

percy
16-06-2014, 05:54 PM
He wasn't married to her, she wanted to trade him in anyway :)

Yeah right!!
Suppose he says the weekend special "pay for one day,get the other day free" attracted you.!!!!! lol.

Beagle
16-06-2014, 06:06 PM
Yeah right!!
Suppose he says the weekend special "pay for one day,get the other day free" attracted you.!!!!! lol.

LOL Sometimes in a quietier moment after i've had a row with my wife I wonder if my old mate was the one who dodged a bullet :D

percy
16-06-2014, 06:08 PM
LOL Sometimes in a quietier moment after i've had a row with my wife I wonder if my old mate was the one who dodged a bullet, opps did I really admitt that....and that's before we start talking about the two kids that have arrived out of the deal :D

Thank goodness you saw the funny side.
Was about to delete my post !!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

Beagle
16-06-2014, 06:25 PM
No worries mate.

Looks like Sharon Hunter and her partner did extremly well out of their sale to the Aussie private equity guys many years back and they're now looking to recover holdings costs and losses and pass the parcel before the music stops.

Looks like a bloody great deal...for the private equity guys. Can't be bothered wasting time too see if its fully underwritten but hope the underwriters have deep pockets.

lambton
16-06-2014, 08:19 PM
No worries mate.

Looks like Sharon Hunter and her partner did extremly well out of their sale to the Aussie private equity guys many years back and they're now looking to recover holdings costs and losses and pass the parcel before the music stops.

Looks like a bloody great deal...for the private equity guys. Can't be bothered wasting time too see if its fully underwritten but hope the underwriters have deep pockets.

Which suggests one should be very careful about chucking money at this IPO.

Beagle
16-06-2014, 08:46 PM
Sure does. The other insight I should share is what I was told about manipulating profit.
Its very easy in this industry to manipulate profit for one or two financial years, (not asserting Hirepool are doing this, just recounting what I've learned over the years).

Profit can be changed quite significantly by choosing not to dispose of old / obsolete / under-utilised / non-functioning hire equipment by simply keeping it in on the books at its depreciated value rather than accepting net realisable value which can often be at quite a significant divergance to book value. Skimping on maintenace is also another good way to improve perceived profit and also not buying too much new hire equipment in any given year, thereby reducing the depreciation charge for that year is another favourite trick. (I did notice in the projections that they're projecting a turnover incrase of circa 10% for 2015 but depreciation is down in 2015 from 2014)...can anyone else see this as a worry....you guys join the dots...

I'm sure many on here recall how Tranz Rail manipulated projections by skimping on track maintenance and how that "Iconic" long standing business Feltex had some questionable projections just as the market was starting to turn for the worse when it was floated.

winner69
16-06-2014, 09:14 PM
Sure does. The other insight I should share is what I was told about manipulating profit.
Its very easy in this industry to manipulate profit for one or two financial years, (not asserting Hirepool are doing this, just recounting what I've learned over the years).

Profit can be changed quite significantly by choosing not to dispose of old / obsolete / under-utilised / non-functioning hire equipment by simply keeping it in on the books at its depreciated value rather than accepting net realisable value which can often be at quite a significant divergance to book value. Skimping on maintenace is also another good way to improve perceived profit and also not buying too much new hire equipment in any given year, thereby reducing the depreciation charge for that year is another favourite trick. (I did notice in the projections that they're projecting a turnover incrase of circa 10% for 2015 but depreciation is down in 2015 from 2014)...can anyone else see this as a worry....you guys join the dots...

I'm sure many on here recall how Tranz Rail manipulated projections by skimping on track maintenance and how that "Iconic" long standing business Feltex had some questionable projections just as the market was starting to turn for the worse when it was floated.

Totally agree Roger and there be a few more tricks I know of as well

I think they are already on to you because there is a whole page plus in the prospectus why depreciation expense can vary year to year .... and why capex is often not in line with depreciation.

Future capex seems to be about $30m odd a year which is a fair chunk of cash flow .... so could impinge on divies at some time.

Listed hire companies here and in Aust have had a chequered past and usually ends in tears and we always put thl in the same boat with their hire campervans..

Beagle
16-06-2014, 09:38 PM
Yeah, THL is a good analogy. Its really "easy" to get the plant mix right isn't it !!

macduffy
17-06-2014, 09:22 AM
No enthusiasm, it seems, for this one.

http://www.stuff.co.nz/business/industries/10164801/Reticence-over-likely-Hirepool-float-value

RGR367
17-06-2014, 09:47 AM
No enthusiasm, it seems, for this one.

http://www.stuff.co.nz/business/industries/10164801/Reticence-over-likely-Hirepool-float-value

Yeah, this won't fly as I just got an invitation, with prospectus and investment statement, just now from my broker (ASB) to participate. I'm the one normally requesting for info on IPO's. Not a good sign for me.

dingoNZ
17-06-2014, 10:02 AM
Yeah, this won't fly as I just got an invitation, with prospectus and investment statement, just now from my broker (ASB) to participate. I'm the one normally requesting for info on IPO's. Not a good sign for me.


Exactly my thought re this IPO too.

Rodger on the previous page gives a very good summary which catches the main concerns for me and what I assume most investors considering the Hirepool IPO.

Xerof
17-06-2014, 10:03 AM
Yeah, this won't fly as I just got an invitation, with prospectus and investment statement, just now from my broker (ASB) to participate. I'm the one normally requesting for info on IPO's. Not a good sign for me.

Lol, I was going to make that observation last night - if your broker rings with an unsolicited firm allocation, run

Balance
17-06-2014, 10:34 AM
Lol, I was going to make that observation last night - if your broker rings with an unsolicited firm allocation, run

"Hirepool is majority-owned by Sydney-based private equity firm Next Capital and its co-investor Macquarie Group.

Next acquired Hirepool in 2006 in a $172m deal, and in 2012 the company bought competitor Hirequip when it went into receivership owing banks $117m."

A Macquarie Group shareholder sell-down?

Some investors out there still have nightmares from the Macquarie Group sell down/of its investments like Thames Water, Brisbane Toll Road etc etc

EPIC, anyone?

RRR
17-06-2014, 06:19 PM
So nice of ASB to contact me and offer a "firm allocation" for Hirepool IPO. They have used the term "valued customer" in their email. I think it is the first time ever that I have received such an email from ASB of all the IPO's since 2010.

I am not impressed with their dealings and I do give decent business to them on a regular basis. :t_down:

I voiced my complaint during Genesis energy IPO and the reason they gave me for not sending the "broker pool offer" was that I ticked the box which said not to contact me with marketing material when I initially applied for a trading account years ago!

Arndale
17-06-2014, 09:58 PM
I'm just throwing it out there as a complete newbie, but do some of the seasoned investors think there is any merit in the following assumption?

If there is not a lot of demand when they complete the book build, do you assume that the price would be toward the lower end of the indicative $1.10 to $1.50 price range? If its at the lower end of the price range and your managers (UBS, Craigs, ANZ etc) want to sell the stock (to institutions, fund managers and retail investors) is it not in their best interest to allow for some room for the stock to move when its first listed? After all they can lay claim to a fee for being managers, in addition to brokerage fees when parties buy and sell in the open market. With the frenzy around the stock market lately, all the new listings I can think of in more recent times have gone on market at a premium to what people paid through broker offers or IPO's. Examples off the top of my head; GNE, IQE, MRP, GEO, ZEL.

So what do people think, do many experienced retail investors / fund managers / institutions go into an offer like this to make the quick buck? Buy at $1.10 then sell on market at $1.20 (say) on listing? Make a cool 9% return for a few days investment of your dosh.

noodles
17-06-2014, 10:06 PM
So what do people think, do many experienced retail investors / fund managers / institutions go into an offer like this to make the quick buck? Buy at $1.10 then sell on market at $1.20 (say) on listing? Make a cool 9% return for a few days investment of your dosh.

You are referring to a trading strategy called "stagging". I would say that it is very popular at the moment.

In your example, your profit will be taxable. Thus you 9% will drop into the 6's.

Secondly, this float does not seem popular. Just read the threads.

Noodles

Arndale
17-06-2014, 10:25 PM
Thanks Noodles, I wasn't aware of the term.

Yes, point taken about the profits being taxable, but even so 6% return for having your money tied up for days, not weeks or months, is still attractive.

Also, I see your point about this float not being popular, but won't that equate to a price at the lower end of the price range when the book build goes ahead? After all, UBS, ANZ and the like want to clip the ticket at both ends of the deal. If its not attractive, they lose out. Flicking through the offer document it doesn't say who is underwriting the deal.

noodles
17-06-2014, 10:44 PM
Thanks Noodles, I wasn't aware of the term.

Yes, point taken about the profits being taxable, but even so 6% return for having your money tied up for days, not weeks or months, is still attractive.

Also, I see your point about this float not being popular, but won't that equate to a price at the lower end of the price range when the book build goes ahead? After all, UBS, ANZ and the like want to clip the ticket at both ends of the deal. If its not attractive, they lose out. Flicking through the offer document it doesn't say who is underwriting the deal.

In my opinion, if any ASB or ANZ clients get shares, it will be because the fund managers don't like it. This has been the experience with Gentrack. So you need to ask yourself if you want to be a holder of shares that fund managers don't want.

Arndale
17-06-2014, 11:03 PM
In my opinion, if any ASB or ANZ clients get shares, it will be because the fund managers don't like it. This has been the experience with Gentrack. So you need to ask yourself if you want to be a holder of shares that fund managers don't want.

I guess the answer to that is probably not!

Great if you're Next Capital or Tenby Powell in which case you'd be laughing all the way to the bank.

Tomtom
17-06-2014, 11:18 PM
So nice of ASB to contact me and offer a "firm allocation" for Hirepool IPO. They have used the term "valued customer" in their email. I think it is the first time ever that I have received such an email from ASB of all the IPO's since 2010. The e-mail I got from their “boiler room” but, as shocking as this accusation appears, I feel like perhaps they've used the term "valued customer" to indicate a nominal value at which I might be exploited rather and without the sincere intentions one might write on a postcard while reminiscing about an old friend. Just a feeling.

More seriously like many here I'll take my chances on the open market if it comes to interest me in the future. I actually really like the business if not the price.

biker
18-06-2014, 06:32 AM
The e-mail I got from their “boiler room” but, as shocking as this accusation appears, I feel like perhaps they've used the term "valued customer" to indicate a nominal value at which I might be exploited rather and without the sincere intentions one might write on a postcard while reminiscing about an old friend. Just a feeling.

More seriously like many here I'll take my chances on the open market if it comes to interest me in the future. I actually really like the business if not the price.

Agree with your sentiments re ASB securities and ' valued customer' . I have received the same email yet ASB made it very clear to me re Gentrack that no matter how much business I put through them ( and that is quite considerable, not to mention the quantum of funds sitting in ASB negligible interest call accounts waiting for opportunities) they would provide less than 300 shares.
Total waste of time and shows disrespect IMO. Now looking to put my online business elsewhere.

Harvey Specter
18-06-2014, 08:20 AM
In my opinion, if any ASB or ANZ clients get shares, it will be because the fund managers don't like it. This has been the experience with Gentrack. So you need to ask yourself if you want to be a holder of shares that fund managers don't want.this is what happened with WYN and I got my full allocation. Luckily, I held firm to my belief and it has now doubled.

I don't see the same happening here.

bull....
18-06-2014, 08:35 AM
not for me, although this could be the one where i get sufficient quantity to make it worth applying

macduffy
18-06-2014, 08:58 AM
Agree with your sentiments re ASB securities and ' valued customer' . I have received the same email yet ASB made it very clear to me re Gentrack that no matter how much business I put through them ( and that is quite considerable, not to mention the quantum of funds sitting in ASB negligible interest call accounts waiting for opportunities) they would provide less than 300 shares.
Total waste of time and shows disrespect IMO. Now looking to put my online business elsewhere.

I wouldn't read too much into the Gentrack "fiasco" though, biker. That issue was immensely popular with the instos and none of the private client brokers got more than the proverbial sniff of an oily rag unless they were involved as managers of the issue.

A different situation here - but I won't be getting involved.

silu
18-06-2014, 09:15 AM
After reading the details I'm not interested in this IPO either. As one previous poster said "I like the business but not the price". The PE ranges for a cyclical company are too high for me.

Beagle
18-06-2014, 09:45 AM
Correction to my earlier comment in this thread regarding the relative PE of AIR, (which shows Hirepool's prospective 2015 PE in an even worse light).

See my comment in AIR's thread. June 2014 Year forecast PE based on $300m profit (which is a projection the company made some time back and hasn't been retracted / updated this late in the financial year so the projection relaibility is probably very good), is only 8.33 !! at $2.25. If AIR grow their profits 10-15% in 2015 clearly their PE is in the low 7's !!. See my comments in AIR's thread how this compares to otehr airlines, i.e. AIR is very, very cheap. Almost goes without saying that with AIR's long and successful track record the chances of their projections being reliable are very good, whereas on the other hand...well, just look at the track record of Hirepool's various entities that have been cobbled together and you be the judge.

Gotta laugh at the valued and loyal "customer" platitudes...should'nt that be valued client ? Whatever, its just code for we're worried we can't sell these things so lets give them the big "push".

noodles
18-06-2014, 09:48 AM
After reading the details I'm not interested in this IPO either. As one previous poster said "I like the business but not the price". The PE ranges for a cyclical company are too high for me.

I agree. But look at their cyclical peers. FBU, STU. They are on higher pe's. Perhaps there is a case to find value on a comparative basis?

Harvey Specter
18-06-2014, 10:37 AM
I wouldn't read too much into the Gentrack "fiasco" though, biker. That issue was immensely popular with the instos and none of the private client brokers got more than the proverbial sniff of an oily rag unless they were involved as managers of the issue.It was the same with Synlait. ASB couldn't get me any yet shortly after, I got all I wanted for WYN. Though the discount brokers, you can only get a involved in the unpopular ones.

macduffy
18-06-2014, 01:31 PM
It was the same with Synlait. ASB couldn't get me any yet shortly after, I got all I wanted for WYN. Though the discount brokers, you can only get a involved in the unpopular ones.

Not just the discount brokers though, Harvey, in the Gentrack issue. Even the full service, full fee retail clients were back of the queue for that one!
Always harder for the discount firms of course as they tend not to have the resources to get involved as lead managers of issues.

dingoNZ
20-06-2014, 03:27 PM
Anyone else notice a lot of advertising surrounding this, I've seen it up a lot on the NZX site, the Herald and Stuff.

I wonder if they are struggling for numbers?

noodles
21-06-2014, 04:14 PM
Quick poll-Anybody taking this offer up?

I am not

percy
21-06-2014, 04:27 PM
Quick poll-Anybody taking this offer up?

I am not

Thought it only fair to let others to have a go at it,so I too am not applying for any.

lambton
21-06-2014, 04:34 PM
Pass the parcel, not catching this one at IPO but will follow with interest and if it gets cheap then $$$

RGR367
21-06-2014, 05:25 PM
Pass the parcel, not catching this one at IPO but will follow with interest and if it gets cheap then $$$

NOT on its IPO and NOT even after it IPO'ed.

Beagle
21-06-2014, 07:05 PM
No interest here other than to see if they can actually float this thing at all.

iceman
21-06-2014, 09:54 PM
No interest here other than to see if they can actually float this thing at all.

Ditto here

horus1
22-06-2014, 10:02 AM
Not buying

iceman
22-06-2014, 10:20 AM
I suggest Shoeshine's column in the NBR about Hirepool is a good reading for anyone interested in this IPO.

tango
22-06-2014, 10:23 AM
I suggest Shoeshine's column in the NBR about Hirepool is a good reading for anyone interested in this IPO.


I'd love to read it but it looks like you need to be a paid subscriber. Can you summarise for us?

lambton
22-06-2014, 11:07 AM
NOT on its IPO and NOT even after it IPO'ed.

Hmm, Feltex perhaps?

RGR367
22-06-2014, 02:58 PM
I'd love to read it but it looks like you need to be a paid subscriber. Can you summarise for us?

Not very good in summarizing but it's nice to note from that article that the forum's concern is being voiced out somehow/somewhere.

iceman
22-06-2014, 05:44 PM
I'd love to read it but it looks like you need to be a paid subscriber. Can you summarise for us?

Hi tango,
it is quite a long article that covers lots of issues, including Hirepool's history and road to where it is today. I wouldn't do it justice by trying to summarise it in a few words.

But below 2 sentences may (or may not) give you the flavour:

"Shoeshine can’t say that the early sentiment towards Hirepool is all that flash.
In fact, feedback on the offer from some experienced heads is nothing short of scathing, to say the least."

But please buy the hardcopy or access to read the full article if you're interested. Don't rely on this for anything !

percy
22-06-2014, 06:24 PM
Hi tango,
it is quite a long article that covers lots of issues, including Hirepool's history and road to where it is today. I wouldn't do it justice by trying to summarise it in a few words.

But below 2 sentences may (or may not) give you the flavour:

"Shoeshine can’t say that the early sentiment towards Hirepool is all that flash.
In fact, feedback on the offer from some experienced heads is nothing short of scathing, to say the least."

But please buy the hardcopy or access to read the full article if you're interested. Don't rely on this for anything !

Sounds similar to the article on Hirepool in today's Sunday Star Times.

Beagle
22-06-2014, 06:40 PM
Good to see the media calling it as they see it.
I suspect many people are scratching their heads as too why we have having such a rash of new listings all at once ? (Naturally enough I have a conspiracy theory on this). Quality companies with growth prospects in many sectors are trading on such stretched multiples promotors figure any old dog will look cheap by comparison.

winner69
22-06-2014, 07:55 PM
Sounds similar to the article on Hirepool in today's Sunday Star Times.

http://www.stuff.co.nz/business/opinion-analysis/10181881/Hirepool-cruising-on-a-tailwind

Harvey Specter
23-06-2014, 09:41 AM
Sounds similar to the article on Hirepool in today's Sunday Star Times.I do note that the papers were also scathing of Kathmandu which turned out alright.

The question is, the the fund managers talking it down, so they can buy more, or because it is a dog. They are off record so not putting their reputation on the line either way.

Edit: Disc: I wont be applying. My concern is the predicted future growth from Chch will be short lived.

steve fleming
23-06-2014, 09:51 AM
My understanding is that generally at least 80% of the float of all these new IPOs is being allocated to institutional component. And often the institutions end up taking 95% plus of all new shares.

Retail investors, apart from providing the spread and generating a bit of publicity, are pretty much irrelevant to the success or otherwise of these new IPOs

tango
23-06-2014, 11:08 AM
Hi tango,
it is quite a long article that covers lots of issues, including Hirepool's history and road to where it is today. I wouldn't do it justice by trying to summarise it in a few words.

But below 2 sentences may (or may not) give you the flavour:

"Shoeshine can’t say that the early sentiment towards Hirepool is all that flash.
In fact, feedback on the offer from some experienced heads is nothing short of scathing, to say the least."

But please buy the hardcopy or access to read the full article if you're interested. Don't rely on this for anything !

Thanks. I think it's a well run company. It's the price and the long term risks in the business that I take issue with so I decided not to invest.

Arndale
23-06-2014, 11:40 AM
The sentiment in the NBR and Stuff was also reiterated in the Herald on Friday last week with an undisclosed market source making the point that Hirepool and 'barge pole' went hand in hand together.

This IPO is certainly generating its fair share of negative publicity. The Herald also made the point that the book build might lead to a resetting of the list price. Time will tell I guess.

lambton
23-06-2014, 05:44 PM
The sentiment in the NBR and Stuff was also reiterated in the Herald on Friday last week with an undisclosed market source making the point that Hirepool and 'barge pole' went hand in hand together.

This IPO is certainly generating its fair share of negative publicity. The Herald also made the point that the book build might lead to a resetting of the list price. Time will tell I guess.

PE of 6 would get my attention. Damm that wouldn't clear any of the promoters debt.

GoldenStag
23-06-2014, 06:18 PM
Stuff article - "Calls for Hirepool to reprice float" just published. Looks like investors and fund managers have voted with closed wallets

Stranger_Danger
24-06-2014, 05:03 AM
Apparently this float will be canned today. Guess we'll hear later if it is true.

Balance
24-06-2014, 09:16 AM
Apparently this float will be canned today. Guess we'll hear later if it is true.

Canned.

Great intelligence, SD!

tango
24-06-2014, 09:18 AM
Cancelled! How embarrassing for HirePool. This will taint future offers

http://www.stuff.co.nz/business/industries/10192636/Hirepool-IPO-cancelled

lambton
24-06-2014, 09:34 AM
Unsuspecting Mums and Dads escaped that toxic parcel.

tango
24-06-2014, 09:38 AM
Unsuspecting Mums and Dads escaped that toxic parcel.

True! Mums and Dads need to visit this forum ;)

Harvey Specter
24-06-2014, 09:55 AM
Cancelled! How embarrassing for HirePool. This will taint future offers

http://www.stuff.co.nz/business/industries/10192636/Hirepool-IPO-cancelledTaint future offers - only if they are crap or priced to high. This shows that they system works.

Stranger_Danger
24-06-2014, 09:59 AM
Taint future offers - only if they are crap or priced to high. This shows that they system works.

Yep, I see it as a positive that the markets are not completely out of control.

Coming into this week, I was starting to wonder if you could float a cage of wild possums on the NZX.

Now, it appears you could only get away with this if the possums were stored in the cloud.

couta1
24-06-2014, 10:23 AM
Yep, I see it as a positive that the markets are not completely out of control.

Coming into this week, I was starting to wonder if you could float a cage of wild possums on the NZX.

Now, it appears you could only get away with this if the possums were stored in the cloud. Love it,this kind of humorous post makes the forum more enjoyable imagine if all posts were only number crunching how boring like watching paint dry:cool:

karen1
24-06-2014, 10:28 AM
True! Mums and Dads need to visit this forum ;)

Oh dear, tango, I do hope you are not using ST as your investing bible! Whilst it is true that one can pick up some quality information here, one also needs to be fully capable of weeding out commentaries which are very far from correct, and could be extremely damaging to a new investor if followed. In the case of Hirepool, there has been, over the last few weeks, a large number of articles in the media which should have been warning enough to stay away, and so today's news should come as no surprise.

Unfortunately there are some very questionable posts on ST, e.g. quoting a long outdated media article, which, unless corrected, could be very misleading to one who might take it as gospel. Or large numbers of posts by a member, perhaps suggesting that such prolification means they are an 'expert'. Often this prolification is no more than noise, and plenty of it, and most often many repetitive style posts from a member tell you nothing.

If you haven't already, may I suggest you read the Reputation Poll currently running on ST, from the first page to the last post, and I hope that it will verify what I am saying. There are a few extremely salient comments there.

Nothing, but nothing, beats your own research.

Good luck with your investing, and own research.

biker
24-06-2014, 10:41 AM
Yep, I see it as a positive that the markets are not completely out of control.

Coming into this week, I was starting to wonder if you could float a cage of wild possums on the NZX.

Now, it appears you could only get away with this if the possums were stored in the cloud.

Love it. Brilliant!

Beagle
24-06-2014, 10:44 AM
Karen1. There's also some very good posts in here from experienced investors...Some posters will always call things as they see them, regardless of the reputation system or what anyone else thinks. The trick on here is too work out who those people are :)

percy
24-06-2014, 10:47 AM
Yep, I see it as a positive that the markets are not completely out of control.

Coming into this week, I was starting to wonder if you could float a cage of wild possums on the NZX.

Now, it appears you could only get away with this if the possums were stored in the cloud.

Must be "The Post of The Year." Cracker.

percy
24-06-2014, 10:48 AM
Karen1. There's also some very good posts in here from experienced investors...Some posters will always call things as they see them, regardless of the reputation system or what anyone else thinks. The trick on here is too work out who those people are :)

Yes Roger,you showed great foresight,and knowledge.
Thank you for leading the way.

Beagle
24-06-2014, 11:04 AM
The float of equipment hire firm Hirepool has been withdrawn after investors baulked at the price.

In an email to brokers this morning, joint lead manager Deutsche Craigs said Hirepool's private equity owner Next Capital had withdrawn the proposed initial public share offer (IPO).

[B]It said the reason was the New Zealand economy was strong so Next was happy to retain full ownership of the business.[/B

No worries Percy my good mate. You can always count on me to post what I really believe regardless of whether its politically correct or otherwise :)

This statement by the promotors, what a load of B.S. If they're so happy to retain full ownership of the business why did they waste millions of dollars trying to float it LOL. I think the person above that called it as a PE of 6 is pretty well right, if their forecasts were credible.

dingoNZ
24-06-2014, 11:10 AM
Float been pulled, what a dog of an IPO.

RGR367
24-06-2014, 11:11 AM
This statement by the promotors, what a load of B.S. ......... I think the person above that called it as a PE of 6 is pretty well right, if their forecasts were credible.

What was said here on ST is what I will call credible. Most of us said it's going to be a dud that is good enough for dummies so it was :) TY Guys!

karen1
24-06-2014, 11:25 AM
Karen1. There's also some very good posts in here from experienced investors...Some posters will always call things as they see them, regardless of the reputation system or what anyone else thinks. The trick on here is too work out who those people are :)

As I pointed out, Roger, "Whilst it is true that one can pick up some quality information here", I agree, there are some very good posts from experienced investors, but how on earth is a new entrant to the forum going to pick up the trick to work out what/who is a good post/er. Trial and error could be costly.

I have to say that, in my early years of finding ST, I learned a great deal about investing.

couta1
24-06-2014, 11:48 AM
As I pointed out, Roger, "Whilst it is true that one can pick up some quality information here", I agree, there are some very good posts from experienced investors, but how on earth is a new entrant to the forum going to pick up the trick to work out what/who is a good post/er. Trial and error could be costly.

I have to say that, in my early years of finding ST, I learned a great deal about investing.
Many of them will learn like I did by arriving here with too much enthusiasm and believing that everyone on here must know their stuff follow their advice and lose a s--t load of money although hopefully they will only lose a tiny portion of what I have.

RGR367
24-06-2014, 06:24 PM
Many of them will learn like I did by arriving here with too much enthusiasm and believing that everyone on here must know their stuff follow their advice and lose a s--t load of money .........

I believe everyone paid their so called "tuition" by learning the Market. I certainly did. What is important in the end is that you gained back that tuition and heaps more.

percy
24-06-2014, 06:51 PM
Many of them will learn like I did by arriving here with too much enthusiasm and believing that everyone on here must know their stuff follow their advice and lose a s--t load of money although hopefully they will only lose a tiny portion of what I have.

I think Newbies read the last page only on any thread.Often I have pointed out that they should start at the beginning of a thread, and read the whole thread,then they can see who knows what they are talking about, and who does not. Simple basic stuff really.
ps I can confirm my posts on KMD thread have been 100% wrong.Well nearly 100%.lol.