TSLA - Tesla Motors [Archive] - Page 5

Dassets

12-04-2022, 09:12 AM

Volumes have been lightening up a lot and that is not a good sign. The moves that have been occurring have been on thin volume which suggests that the instos aren't playing just traders and private clients. I have heard that retail interest is waning across the board, in the US, Aust and here. Maybe the interest rate rises are real to them at home with the mortgage, who knows. But imo Musk talking about getting into lithium mining is bad news and shows a lack of coherent strategy. The new EV launches are now coming thick and fast. I pointed out last year Tesla's lack of competitive response was and still is a problem. I am not talking this thing down it is just my view.

pedro.nz

13-04-2022, 03:24 PM

13719

Closed yesterday at 975.93 but premarket trading this morning bought it all the way up to 997.64
Hit its high soon after opening at 1021.19
Closed at 986.95
Slight increase in volume...

(Managed a very quick day trade - certainly not game to do anything else in current climate :)))

13720
Longer term view

Dassets

14-04-2022, 04:44 PM

pedro.nz

15-04-2022, 12:58 AM

Musk has put in a bid for the rest of Twitter…

Walter

15-04-2022, 10:21 AM

Volume last night is the same issue. 75% of normal daily avg. No insto participation. When it has broken levels before the volume has been large. Also look at bitcoin, GME etc, the retail volume has really dropped. Now it reminds me of the retail surge in 85-87. Now I wasn't in the business then but not that long after. No when retail ran in 87-89 there wasn't anyone there. This current situation reminds me of that. Hope you are right Dassets, I need to top up at a discount. The shut down in Shanghai might trigger a short term sell off at some stage. I estimate it is costing them US$38,000,000 a day in gross profit.

pedro.nz

15-04-2022, 02:34 PM

Expected to report earnings on Wed 20/04/2022 after market close. According to Zacks Investment Research, based on 6 analysts' forecasts, the consensus EPS forecast for the quarter is $1.64. EPS for the same quarter last year was $0.39.

Dassets

15-04-2022, 09:15 PM

I think events have taken over the Q1 result. Eyes will be on q2, Shanghai shutdown, the cost pressures and does he need to sell to pay for Twitter. The US rules are tough in that regard. Don't you get the feeling he does something bold to take the focus off things elsewhere? I do. The Jan and Feb sales of other EVs also not great for Tesla. Chinese manufacturers are very strong. Hyundai, VW making inroads and that Mercedes just got to 1000kms on one charge.

Panda-NZ-

16-04-2022, 07:05 AM

One poison pill served up for elon.

Probably doesn't have many real life friends like Trump, only adoring fans.

So not that great to work with in a team setting twitter has therefore decided.

Walter

16-04-2022, 08:43 AM

More BEVs from anyone is part of Tesla's mission. There are already Tesla Model S prototypes that have done more than 1,000 km, but they are not practical. Tesla's competition is from ICE cars and reduced demand for cars. That is why they are so keen on getting their robotaxi network functional.

pedro.nz

21-04-2022, 01:34 PM

Tesla reported $3.22 EPS for the quarter beating estimates of around $2.26
Revenue of $18.76 billion for the quarter compared to expectations of $17.84 billion.
Quarterly revenue was up 80.5% on a year-over-year basis.

pedro.nz

22-04-2022, 10:49 AM

Well now, the effect on the share price in relation to the good quarter results certainly did not last long.
Suspect the Fed making further noises about a half point rise in May as well as supply chain issues, Shanghai lockdown affects etc are all weighing quite heavily on this stock causing quite large daily swings in stock price...

e.g The EOD price pre results was 977.20
Opened this morning at 1074.73 so after/pre market was pretty happy with the results
Quickly rose to 1090.50 but that was it
Dropped throughout the day back down to a low of 996.44
Closed at 1008.78 on quite high volume (34,821,994)

(Was worth waking up for this morning as bought yesterday at $1,023.40 and sold today at $1,077.14 - makes for a happy chappie :))

pedro.nz

27-04-2022, 06:01 PM

Down 12.2% today to US$876:42 on double average volume
NASDAQ also down 3.95%
Could be an interesting day tomorrow...

Dassets

27-04-2022, 07:31 PM

I don't think this stock's price is connected to index levels to the extent of most companies. The factors that affect it(up or down) are company specific. Also the company specific effect normally affects a range of investors classes in what action they take ie pension, insti, hedge, retail, traders. By having all of those participating you can get good price discovery based on the company's prospects. This also doesn't happen with Tesla(and others like AIR in NZ). The professional type investors are not providing that support and liquidity as a result. Retail has been setting price direction and quantum of movements. That has been a re-emerging feature of markets. It has happened before and never been good in the long run. The vol in TSLA for that sort of move shows what I am saying is right. 2x daily avg vol when the price moves like that is a bad sign for support emerging because it didn't emerge. I am maintaining my -ve position and didn't do anything in that fall. Everyone has an opinion and that is mine FWIW.

pedro.nz

28-04-2022, 08:30 AM

Good points there Dassets, and it’s some of the reasons why I am not game to take a long position at this time. Will carry on day trading this one for now…

pedro.nz

29-04-2022, 06:31 PM

Elon Musk has sold around 4.8 billion dollars worth of shares this week which will explain most of the large rise in volume - says he isn’t planning on selling any more…

JBmurc

05-05-2022, 11:00 AM

Musk has put in a bid for the rest of Twitter…

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-10780583/George-Soros-Clinton-Obama-staffers-European-governments-anti-Musk-campaign.html

Dassets

06-05-2022, 07:15 AM

Looks like Musk selling more stock.

Another thing CATL Fell 8% in China yesterday after poor result. CATL is more than 2 x LG's battery market share and is a major supplier for Tesla, At the result yesterday CATL also said there were some big battery price increases that it was going to put through soon. Obviously Tesla will have to put up car prices again. CATL supplies most of the batteries to Tesla's Shanghai plant.

pedro.nz

06-05-2022, 11:00 AM

Tesla down 8.33% today...
Initially did quite well after the Fed's statement yesterday, but the market is certainly not so happy today.
NASDAQ down 5% overall.

And I see NIO is down a whopping 15.17%, Rivian down 9.46%, and the list goes on :ohmy:

I take it you think Musk is selling more stock based on todays large volume or ?....

Dassets

06-05-2022, 01:03 PM

The way it traded early you could see there was serious selling. It was operated in a very similar way to the stock the other day, hey I could be wrong, but it could even be Larry Ellison selling some of his stock to "help Elon" with the Twitter funding etc. He does own around 1.5% of issued shares he bought for around $1bil now worth around $14b at current market price. Bit of a guess but we will find out sooner or later.

pedro.nz

06-05-2022, 03:29 PM

Ah, didn’t think of that - could well be…

pedro.nz

12-05-2022, 05:19 PM

Now down approx 25% over the past month against the NASDAQ at approx 15% - still production problems in Shanghai due to supply issues so not surprising really. Other EV manufacturers not doing well either…

Walter

23-05-2022, 08:34 PM

pedro.nz

24-05-2022, 02:42 PM

Sure hope he did :t_up:
And yes, Musk is certainly not helping things...

Joshuatree

25-05-2022, 10:13 AM

Nearly 50% down in the last 6 months
PE down to 85
S/p down 7 % last bite

stoploss

25-05-2022, 10:24 AM

Nearly 50% down in the last 6 months
PE down to 85
S/p down 7 % last bite
Wonder if the God is still afloat ?

ynot

25-05-2022, 10:59 AM

Wonder if the God is still afloat ?
If he was real ?

nztx

26-05-2022, 07:42 AM

How much did they lose on their Blatcoin blitz or did they get out before it got flattened recently ? ;)

Dassets

26-05-2022, 08:08 AM

Dassets will be doing well on his short if he kept it. The price is low enough for me to start accumulating again. It will be interesting to see if Elon's latest rantings do turn off left wing car buyers. Twitter is certainly full of hate for him from an even larger contingent than usual.

Too easy, I researched what the insti movements were, they were not and are not buying. The other thing Elon, via his selling, has injected a lot of tradable stock into the mix. He has actually cashed up lots given the tax treatment of the donated stock. I sort of thought he would pull from Twitter. The next result will be bad. Bitcoin loss, costs up, production down from expectations. And another 3 months the competition get closer. I will say it now. When I have been looking at it I cannot get much more than $100 a share.

Walter

26-05-2022, 09:55 AM

Walter

26-05-2022, 09:57 AM

How much did they lose on their Blatcoin blitz or did they get out before it got flattened recently ? ;)
Diddly squat, they might have to mark it down by a few hundred million. The lockdowns in China are much more significant.

Joshuatree

26-05-2022, 11:02 AM

So you've topped up Walter,what's your average price now? I'm not int buying into a downtrend but will watch it.

Dassets

26-05-2022, 02:03 PM

Thanks Dassets, interesting perspective. My back of the envelope calculations show them earning $12 a share next year. If I'm correct, at $100 a share they would be on a PE of 8. This would be for a debt free company growing at 50% per year. I've not allowed anything for their energy, humanoid robot or driving software.

I will tell you where I am coming from. First up the diluted number of shares is 1,157 m shares, accounting for the further 12% or so of vested and in the money options. BTW that is after 10% has already been vested and sold by the CEO, Chair, other directors and execs. That is right they have cashed out around $100b this year alone. I am looking beyond next year btw to the long term business but it doesn't make much difference because I think we will see the trends anyway and that will begin to be reflected in share price. The two big problems for me are 1. costs 2. the effect of competitor action. 1. is easy. 2. for me means the margin currently being enjoyed at about 150% above Toyota(one of the best) will inevitably revert to industry. Why? Because the industry is launching 45+ EVs this year(vs 0 for Tesla) and by doing that the industry will inject their margins into what has been a very limited and insulated market. Sales growth sorry I dont buy the forecasts with the competitor product available. Tesla is meant to sell 2.25M cars next year without a small budget offering or SUV(in the US vital). With 3 or 4 models is just isn't going to happen. There are only about 4-4.5 pax cars sold in the US- each year. BYD is killing Tesla in China. Tesla doesn't sell in Africa or South America. Tesla is a niche company with a high end niche product. Now it could launch a couple of models next year but the competitors eg F150 and GM, Range Rover is already playing in the sandpit. So I see peak production early for them and margins compressed. A simple formula. BTW I have seen almost all the analysts of a well covered company be wrong before. The classic was Telecom(now Spark) on the way the market looked at mobile. Everyone but one sole analyst had profits improving and big rev growth including fund managers like Capital Group who owned 10%. Telecom got near to $10 before dropping to near $2. That analyst worked out the rev forecasts were impossible unless the consumer cut back on food, housing or energy. People thought I was crazy until it started. I had some interesting discussions after that with Teresa.

Hey I could be wrong about Tesla but to me it doesn't pass a basic sniff test in terms of can this happen(world domination and maintenance of never seen before margins) .

Walter

26-05-2022, 04:25 PM

Thanks Dassets
Their new factories seem very efficient. VW CEO Herbert Diess says Tesla can make a car three times faster than than VW can.
Don't forget the legacy makers outsource many things, leave margin for dealers and spend up big on advertising. Tesla also makes margin on software and is moving into insurance.

In addition I think it is the whole car market up for grabs, not just the BEV demand. Legacy is slow to ramp, the Koreans make great cars, but small numbers. The Chinese are ramping well and will undermine the low end in Europe given the chance. Tesla still outsells BYD in China in the pure BEV format, that might change this year. I'm confident they can get to five million annual sales, cynical they can get to twenty million.

Walter

26-05-2022, 07:28 PM

So you've topped up Walter,what's your average price now? I'm not int buying into a downtrend but will watch it. $383, hurt by buying a few months ago LOL.

pedro.nz

27-05-2022, 06:16 PM

Great to have the opportunity for a short term trade today - up 7.43%
And up another 0.74% after hours
NASDAQ also up in similar fashion at 2.68%
Will be interesting to see where it heads tomorrow and whether the low of US$620.57 on the 24th May ends up being low point for now.

13848

pedro.nz

28-05-2022, 04:46 PM

And up another 7.33% today plus another 0.7% after hours to $765.25 :)

Walter

31-05-2022, 07:30 AM

There is another hidden profit centre source for Tesla. Vehicles on three year leases are starting to be returned to Tesla and become available for resale . Because of the crazy used car market in USA the market value for these cars is much higher than their book value, there is speculation this will be worth $billions over the next few years. The story goes that Elon had thought they would have solved FSD by now and wanted the cars for robotaxis. Elon still thinks they will solve FSD this year, many think he is in lala land. Either way, it seems like a financial win.

pedro.nz

31-05-2022, 10:38 AM

Looking forward to Q2 results and to find out how well the two new factories have been doing in ramping up production levels.

Walter

31-05-2022, 11:53 AM

Joshuatree

31-05-2022, 01:00 PM

Got it now ,FSD = Full Self Driving

Walter

31-05-2022, 02:01 PM

Sorry for the jargon Joshuatree. Tesla has been selling FSD (full self driving) software for several years and Elon has been promising they will crack it soon for years. The cost in USA is US$12,000 and it transfers with the car, so there are many unhappy purchasers since functionality is still limited. It is generalist, in that they hope it will be able to drive anywhere, whereas Google's Waymo is limited to specific routes and locations. There are some interesting warts and all Youtube clips of people training it (over 100,000 drivers now). It is available in NZ for about the same price in $NZ, but functionality is even more limited than it is in USA.

pedro.nz

31-05-2022, 02:53 PM

I would not get your hopes up Pedro, the ramp from both factories will be slow. Texas is having trouble with new battery production (they have a backup plan of using the same ones as Fremont). Berlin has been hampered by the Shanghai shutdown, as they currently get drivetrain and battery packs from there. Berlin has started a second shift - they are using the time to train workers.

Agree, I'm certainly not expecting huge numbers but hopefully they have got to the point that they are past the myriad of startup issues that must always be part of getting such large scale projects underway...

Crypto Crude

04-06-2022, 08:29 AM

Tesla the most overvalued company the world has ever seen taking a pull back to 700 bucks...

I won't even buy Tesla at $100...!

Walter

04-06-2022, 08:57 AM

Tesla the most overvalued company the world has ever seen taking a pull back to 700 bucks...

I won't even buy Tesla at $100...!
It is highly unlikely anybody will buy it at $100, although there is a stock split coming up, so you may get that chance. I realise that investments that have earnings might be a scary concept for those that play in the NFT and Crypto space.

ynot

04-06-2022, 09:25 AM

It is highly unlikely anybody will buy it at $100, although there is a stock split coming up, so you may get that chance. I realise that investments that have earnings might be a scary concept for those that play in the NFT and Crypto space.

You have a point regards the crypto "investor". However, $100 could well be where it should be.

Walter

26-06-2022, 04:01 PM

As expected, the new factories have been bleeding cash. Germany has a recall on the cars performance cars produced and has started making long range model Y as China will shut down for a few weeks in July. Texas has now started making cars using the older style batteries as they are still struggling to ramp the newer battery production. I'm now expecting one-offs of at least US$700 million and about 260,000 cars delivered in the quarter.

Crypto Crude

04-07-2022, 11:01 PM

Where did Tesla dog go

stoploss

05-07-2022, 07:53 AM

Where did Tesla dog go
Might have been long some coins and got wiped out .

Crypto Crude

05-07-2022, 08:07 AM

Might have been long some coins and got wiped out .

He would have had a stop loss...

Impossible reasoning anyway ....

He didn't even like crypto...

Snoopy

05-07-2022, 09:24 AM

Where did Tesla dog go

Looks like he has transcended.

https://www.facebook.com/TeslaGod/posts/

The goal looks to be to create a kind of eternal life by transferring consciousness into a simulation. He seems to be unsure that he isn't in a simulation already. He is getting into recording dreams, helped by the fact that humans can memorise things in 13 dimensions! I appoint you as chief taskmaster to bring him back to some sort of reality CC.

SNOOPY

Crypto Crude

05-07-2022, 01:58 PM

Looks like he has transcended.

https://www.facebook.com/TeslaGod/posts/

The goal looks to be to create a kind of eternal life by transferring consciousness into a simulation. He seems to be unsure that he isn't in a simulation already. He is getting into recording dreams, helped by the fact that humans can memorise things in 13 dimensions! I appoint you as chief taskmaster to bring him back to some sort of reality CC.

SNOOPY

How can you be sure it's him

Snoopy

20-07-2022, 09:10 PM

How can you be sure it's him?

Wow! Got a message via forum mail from the 4th dimension. It looks to be genuine.

"Unfortunately I have been permanently banned for being of such a higher intelligence, nether the less I have transcended to the 4th dimension."

"TeslaGod wishes you good health and prosperity to you and your family."

I hope you don't mind me sharing your PM to me TeslaGod. I am sure your fan base will be keen to hear you are still out there in the ether somewhere. Keep on (Cyber)trucking!

SNOOPY

whatsup

22-07-2022, 11:35 AM

Market likes yesterdays ann, S P up 13% today to $815 us.

pedro.nz

22-07-2022, 03:21 PM

Yes bug....r it, forgot to set my clock to wake up at the opening - sure missed that one :mad ;:

Dassets

24-07-2022, 01:22 PM

Yes bug....r it, forgot to set my clock to wake up at the opening - sure missed that one :mad ;:

Yes a bit brutal for me watching the price moves. I have been looking at the EBITDA and it seems weird. WSJ or someone has written an article on it also which sounds about right. It may be the EBITDA figure was helped by the crypto stuff. On the earnings call the CFO was asked some questions around that but no information was forthcoming. It seems the accounting standards on crypto need to catch up as there is virtually no requirement for any detailed reporting or break out of the numbers. FWIW

Walter

24-07-2022, 03:47 PM

Walter

24-07-2022, 04:01 PM

The 10-Q will be interesting. The biggest surprise to me was that Berlin is already making a positive gross margin. Texas seems to be under performing, but has the most potential. Shanghai will soon be producing over a million a year. By the end of the year Tesla will be making over 40,000 a week. Like you, I wonder if they can sell them all.

Dassets

24-07-2022, 05:47 PM

The rules on crypto appear to be that they must mark them down to the lowest price during the quarter, but can not mark up, unless it's a realised profit. They have $US218 million of crypto in the balance sheet now, had $US1,261 million last quarter and made sales of US$936 million. They say that they made a loss on crypto.

Yes but the margin $ value moves from qtr to qtr and then looking at the regulatory credit position changes mean EBITDA doesn't make sense esp when you had materials pressure and restructuring costs. Really the level of disclosure is poor. It makes people think they are making more money.

Another couple of things Musk saying that he sees inflation receding by end of year is a pretty BS comment unless you can back it up. But the Musk followers buy it hook line and sinker. Secondly reports that 2 of the plants(was it Shanghai and Berlin?) were going to close in July for modifications to be able to reach production targets combined with we are sticking to 50% volume growth for the year(same projection before shanghai closure and delays to Berlin is aspirational but that doesn't cut the mustard. They are holding out aspiration as forecast/projection which is bad and potentially actionable.

Finally what I notice about Musk is he is always trying to start a side show to take your eye off core fundamentals eg costs going up, lets do a split etc etc. Also Musk is going to be up to his eyeballs in legal briefs and on that he is in big trouble. I have been reading some good legal views on his position. Anyway if you are trading Tesla this is what you have to expect.

Walter

24-07-2022, 06:58 PM

German media says that the Berlin alterations have already happened. The Model Y production upgrades have already happened at Shanghai - they are now reported as producing 2000 a day. The model 3 production line upgrades at Shanghai started July 17th and are expected to be finished by August 7th. Covid lockdowns are still a wildcard.

Tesla has increase prices multiple times in USA. The standard Model 3 increased by $10,000 in just over year, while Tesla honors order prices, the newer prices have flowed through to selling prices.

The energy division and services contributed a few hundred million more than last quarter and as predicted stock based compensation was down.

I don't know why interest income was so small. Rumour is that much of the cash is in Europe and China with very low interest rates. Tesla is also said to be a slow payer, which does not make sense to me either. If your suppliers are precious it would seem to make sense to keep in their good books.

Who knows with the court cases. With Twitter, it appears his defense is that he bought in good faith, but that Twitter has been lying about bots in their filings, so everybody was mislead. A lose would inflict major damage on both parties, so they may settle.

Walter

24-07-2022, 08:17 PM

Despite the lag in prices rises due to cheaper orders the average selling price is up over 13% Q2 to Q2 with much higher volumes.

Dassets

24-07-2022, 09:07 PM

Despite the lag in prices rises due to cheaper orders the average selling price is up over 13% Q2 to Q2 with much higher volumes.

Wow didn't see that, this is a problem for EVs generally, I mean people have seen demand and supply curves right? When does a demand response occur I wonder

Walter

25-07-2022, 10:01 AM

Tesla demand is interesting. There is now quite a bit of competition in USA, yet Tesla is still hovering around 70% market share of BEVs there. Despite the large price rises the waitlist for a Tesla is still over 6 months in most cases. Resale values are often higher than the new price.

In USA VW ID4 has months worth of cars sitting around, after the tax credits it's around US$37,000. While it has it's faults, It does not seem like that bad of a car. I had a ride in a Bolt recently - GM is now selling them for under US$30,000. It's a shame they are not available here.

Walter

25-07-2022, 10:19 AM

USA Jan - April Tesla (139K) easily outsold BMW (106K), Audi (51K), Mercedes (83K), Lexus (88K) etc.
BEV sales in thousands were 64 Tesla Y, 56 Tesla 3, 11 Tesla S, 10 Ford Mach E, 8 Hyundai Ionic 5, 7 Kia EV6, 7 Tesla model X. Perhaps it's the charging network, but Tesla owners satisfaction ratings are very high, despite all the publicity you see in the media.

Walter

30-07-2022, 08:46 AM

While I only give it a 50% chance of passing, the possibility of paying many new American Tesla buyers $7500, when they currently get nothing, is an unexpected tailwind. The timing coincides nicely with the massive new factory in Texas ramping up. If it expands as fast as the Shanghai factory, it will be making over a million Teslas a year by sometime in 2024. The Fremont factory makes half of that, but is already the largest car factory in USA.

In addition, it is hard to see how long the rating agencies can still rate Tesla bonds as junk. The balance sheet is far stronger than many of their so called "investment grade" issuers. Upgrading Tesla to investment grade will open up a whole new basket of possible buyers. In addition, just like the index inclusion late 2020, many will become forced buyers.

Dassets

01-08-2022, 07:21 PM

whatsup

05-08-2022, 04:51 PM

All set for the 3 for 1 share split, sp up 20%+ in the last week and now that the split has been ann it will rise before that happens, should be back over $1000 before too long.

Dassets

05-08-2022, 05:13 PM

All set for the 3 for 1 share split, sp up 20%+ in the last week and now that the split has been ann it will rise before that happens, should be back over $1000 before too long.

Place your bets.

I say no. TESLA is only appealing to retail investors, volumes are super light. The competition is coming fast. The BYD Seal was announced May, deliveries have commenced, first 60T orders done and now expanding to Japan etc. TESLA CYBERTRUCK, announced 2019, delayed again. The Seal looks very good. But the price points way below Model 3. All I say is enjoy the autumn for that stock.

Dassets

06-08-2022, 01:43 PM

CNBC late Friday reportwd"California DMV accuses Tesla of deceptive practices in marketing Autopilot and Full Self-Driving options".

If anyone is interested this looks fairly serious. Go to the CNBC article or a general search.

RTM

06-08-2022, 03:12 PM

https://www.latimes.com/business/story/2022-08-05/dmv-false-advertising-tesla

Here’s a link for folk. Quite interesting.

Dassets

06-08-2022, 04:04 PM

It was filed on the 28th July.

Here's a possible theory. Looks to me some must have got wind of it, shorted aggressively, then leaked to the media after market close. It basically hit all media an hour after close through to around 4 hours after close. There are no earlier media reports. I am surprised TESLA didn't disclose this yesterday, wonder what the disclosure rules are over there. I would have thought this could be viewed as material. IMO this will out pressure on the price.

Walter

08-08-2022, 08:44 AM

There is also at least one director selling to pay for tax and options. Larry Ellison is no longer a director and has made massive capital gains on his Tesla holdings.

Walter

08-08-2022, 09:32 AM

https://www.latimes.com/business/story/2022-08-05/dmv-false-advertising-tesla

Here’s a link for folk. Quite interesting.

In 2020 the German media was also full of such stories. Long story short ... again citing that the statement at the bottom of the website that the driver must actively monitor the car and that autonomous operation is not possible.According to TeslaMag sources, Tesla won the case and can continue to advertise its system as Autopilot

Walter

08-08-2022, 09:55 AM

The Senate has just passed a bill that in theory will allow some Tesla purchasers to get a $7500 credit from next year. It will also stop the subsidy that many purchasers of Tesla's competitors currently get. In reality, the bill is written in such a way that plug in hybrids will get a subsidy that several times the cost of battery plus motor, but full BEVs will seldom qualify. Tesla has multiple input sources and battery technologies, so I'm sure that they will find a way to ensure that some Tesla purchases qualify.

Dassets

08-08-2022, 08:01 PM

This is interesting, German BEV car sales for July. Tesla Y sold 1,035 units, about 3% of 28,815 BEV sales(12th position). Model 3 not in the top 20 ie not over 500 units for the month. Significant new models appearing on the sales list. VW took 3 of the top five spots, with total sales of 4,280. Hyundai, BMW, Audi, Opel(GM-based platform), FIAT and Dacia(Renault-based platform) the other Top 10 place getters.

This is my thesis playing out. The number of new models launched this year will impact Tesla's look forward "projections". Its price points are really placing it in the top quartile of offerings which amounts to a global market of 17 million cars. Sure new models will come(at some point but Tesla said at the full year result they were not working on a car design for the lower end market).

It makes the "20 million cars by 2030" wizard-like in creditability.

The only card that Musk is playing is the 45% representation of retail investors on the shareholder list which is way higher than normal lists. I predict he will keep playing to that base because it doesn't have the investment knowledge to make a grounded decisions IMO. At some stage that won't be enough to support the share price.

Walter

10-08-2022, 08:46 AM

Do you think that the lockdown of the factory that exports Model 3 and base Y to Germany may of been a factor? What were the first 6 months of German BEV sales like?

Walter

10-08-2022, 12:39 PM

In July there were major factory upgrades in Shanghai so you will also find that production and exports from there down next month too. Did you see the first half car sales in the very competitive California market? Model Y 42K, Model 3 39K, third place was RAV4 at 31K. BMW3 was only 4k. Tesla Model S sold twice as many as Mercedes S class.
Dassets is correct, Institutions are unweight Tesla, preferring the likes of Meta, where they are overweight.

Dassets

11-08-2022, 12:45 AM

Absolutely to some extent for the Model 3(the Y comes from Germany) but Shanghai was reopened on the 19 April. On the 3 months to July Model 3 also doesn't appear in the top 20. The 3 cars didn't go to other markets eg NZ which hadn't sold basically any since March I think. Aussi the same. The figures are out there somewhere. NZ gets some in Sept maybe late August. But even last month Shanghai only produced 28T after the shutdown which ran for 2 weeks. The upgrade was meant to get them to 22T a week. they produced for 2 and a bit weeks so where are the cars according to their numbers. So running this a bit further it looks like NZ(and only using that to illustrate a point) will probably sell less Model 3 than last year. The issue is where ever you turn the numbers do not stack up and that is always a warning sign to me.

So in Germany in Feb before the Fiat 500(top seller in July at 2170 units) sold around 1200, 4 others in the top 10 weren't on the market, cut off at 1150 units. That is the real point I was making, the competitors are in the market and are coming with more. Tesla doesn't have a product to compete with the FIAT 500 and that is a major problem for them especially when you say you are going to have 30% of the entire global car market.

pedro.nz

15-08-2022, 07:41 PM

Each stockholder of record on August 17, 2022 will receive a dividend of two additional shares of common stock for each then-held share, to be distributed after close of trading on August 24, 2022. Trading will begin on a stock split-adjusted basis on August 25, 2022.

Walter

16-08-2022, 03:39 PM

In the very large market of California Tesla had a market share of about 11% in the first half of the year. Toyota had about 17% of the market, Ford was third most popular. In dollar terms, it's highly likely Tesla was number one.

Dassets

13-10-2022, 07:59 PM

So I am still active in this stock running a short strategy. I will say mid Sept was tough but my research based around monthly sales data and other factors made me hold firm. My view atm is that the result will probably be a miss based the effects of the finished goods inventory and changes to its manufacturing approach. The Twitter thing is no surprise. The docs filed to the SEC back in April?? were straight forward. So my view is the share price likely weak until the result but I don't want to be short much after(at least until a short induced rally). Why? I think that the banks that are funding the Twitter debt are selling stock now in anticipation of Elon selling after the result(he can't sell prior). He is lucky if that is what is happening because naked selling after the result will see the price achieved circa 180. This way he will get say 205 to 210. The banks make the money to cover the debt loss. A short squeeze happens and price goes up. Anyway that is my working theory. Then back to reality. Tesla is not getting the marketshare it needs outside California and other parts of the US. As I predicted some time ago the rollout of other EVs this year is affecting it. The product is expensive relative and looks dated. While some tech is good it is not so relevant to most buyers. Cybertruck? Well just look at it. Straight off Logans Run. Robot/cat girl just embarrassing. Power wall has had major grid issues, look at Australia. No product priced where average consumer buys and no plans for development. Bold prediction. All but gone within 7 years. Interested in proper debate but no 'It has gone up x since 2017 etc" arguments

Ferg

15-10-2022, 12:24 PM

Bold prediction. All but gone within 7 years. Interested in proper debate but no 'It has gone up x since 2017 etc" arguments
A bold prediction indeed which has spurred me into replying. Cathie Wood disagrees on the basis of all the other technology....apparently. I haven't looked at it that closely but I'm aware it has or had an eye watering PE ratio.

What do you see as being the trigger for failure? Or is there no such trigger but instead a slow painful death where historic market share is unsustainable? Or some other issue such as governance etc?

https://cathiewoodstocks.com/

Dassets

15-10-2022, 08:33 PM

A bold prediction indeed which has spurred me into replying. Cathie Wood disagrees on the basis of all the other technology....apparently. I haven't looked at it that closely but I'm aware it has or had an eye watering PE ratio.

What do you see as being the trigger for failure? Or is there no such trigger but instead a slow painful death where historic market share is unsustainable? Or some other issue such as governance etc?

https://cathiewoodstocks.com/

Cathie Wood's Flagship Fund, ARKK, has been great for Cathy. That fund has a net assets of US$7.57B. 5 years ago its net assets were circa $1.4B. Cathy and the other shareholders of the management company makes money from fees. The fees, which also do pay costs say from the trustee etc, mostly go to the manager. Fees have gone from US$10.5m(based on the Sept 18 AUM) to US$57.8M. Since Sept 2017 the NASDAQ has gone up 61.6%, while ARKK has risen 3.2%. Sure it has been a while ride.

At the core of my doubt about Tesla is about the competitive environment and its response to that or at least its apparent business plan. BTW I have made these comments for 18 months or so, initially saying that the launch of other EVs this year and onwards as part of the competitor response was going to negatively affect Tesla in a number of ways.

Now what I said was a pretty standard observation that a junior analyst could make. Tesla's response has been basically nothing. No new models, no development of cars in the price range most cars are sold because that is what people can afford. Its aspirations to sell 20M cars in 2030 is laughable.

Its sales inside of the US and especially California are good. In other markets it is struggling. More tellingly it struggles when other BEVs are in those markets or when other BEVs are launched the take-up by consumers is a lot better.

When I look at its long term ambitions I do wonder what the effect of subsidies being withdrawn will be. But there are more pressing issues. Deferrals of tax or some incentive related to new plant builds are coming to an end. Minimum USD$300m for tax on China kicks in 2024. Texas who knows? To get to 20M of production it needs to build 10-12 plants at a cost of $50-60B and fund working capital requirements of $X. No way can it get that sort of capital.

My concerns aren't limited to the above. Elon, directors and executives have been selling gigantic amounts of stock that they basically got for free. The Chair has become a billionaire through options. She has sold for cash maybe $400M worth the last 18 months or so. The smartest executives have set up blind trusts that keep on selling monthly option exercises. That way price sensitive information and black out periods before results can be sold through.

But my main issue is the competitor actions in reality. So the trigger is just grinding, promises not met, average results and then a rush at near the end using cash to quickly develop a lot of new products(too late)

Walter

16-10-2022, 01:23 AM

I also wonder about the demand side of things. Model Y was the best selling car in many markets in September, so sales must be peaking. Electricity prices in Europe have soared, so BEVs must be less attractive there than they were a year ago. China seems to be determined to damage their economy and USA has it's own issues.
Elon seems to generate hate, much of it self inflicted. That must have some effect on demand.
Possible increasing revenue sources are from new vehicles, the energy division, computing, insurance software and next years USA Government incentives.
At current prices the PE this year may well be around 50. If growth continues that does not appear to out of line with the market.

Ferg

16-10-2022, 03:31 PM

Thanks for sharing Dassets and Walter. I agree with what you are saying and IMO the eye watering PE ratio is not sustainable. And/or the future earnings are too optimistic. Not only are the demand side issues, but with capex and working capital constraints, there will be supply side issues to achieve those sorts of (as you say) laughable targets.

I would also add governance to their list of issues. Elon Musk has been a bit of a loose cannon and it's only a question of time (if not already) there is a major FUBAR with far-reaching consequences. Plus if you look at the names of the Tesla models and their sequence of release, you get:
S3XY
pretty juvenile although Elon is a bit of a "meme lord" so I suppose it is to be expected .... hence my concern around governance.

Walter

16-10-2022, 09:22 PM

Tesla have plenty of cash and almost no debt. In three years Tesla built a factory from scratch in Shanghai capable of producing a million cars a year. They are currently building factories in Berlin and Texas. The PE should be less than Auckland Airport this year, not expensive for a company that has been growing at over 50% a year. The question both Dassets and I have is will the growth continue? He says no and short sells, I say probably and am drip feeding in. It's going to be a rocky year.

Dassets

16-10-2022, 10:58 PM

Not really Walter when you pick the balance sheet apart. 19b or sk in cash, but 2b of that is customer deposits, it has 11b of payables or so. Then it has chewed up around $1B in cash because of the initial build up of inventory. And that is because of a permanent change in production approach away from location batch manufacturing. As Tesla grows production nd geographic spread, inventories will grow further. GM has 12% of turnover in finished goods on average. . It is permanent because cars take time to move from Berlin to Madrid or Shanghai to where ever etc. The inventory issue means earnings downgrades because analysts are moving from assuming no inventory to xx. It was easy when Teslas California plant conveniently located in its biggest market could make the cars late in the quarter and deliver nearby. It has just changed.

Ps I follow and pay for production numbers and actual sales. A guy I get some of the numbers from is saying he thinks Shanghai is making 10000 cars a week or 50% of production not selling in China like they thought. So Tesla is trying to shift them offshore. LHD though so Europe bound I guess. Problem is sales are not going that well in Europe. Some markets showed Model Y records but really that was just shipments turning up and orders gathered over the year satisfied.

So to go to cash, it's working capital requirements going through the roof. I expect a bond issue soon around 6.5% just in time to fund cybertruck operations. Doesn't that remind you of the electric pickup from Logans Run btw?

It is going to grow by less than 40% this year btw. It looks like sales at just over 1.3 m for FY2022 below the downgraded from 1.5m to 1.4 m current company expectation.

Snoopy

17-10-2022, 09:38 AM

PS. I follow and pay for production numbers and actual sales. A guy I get some of the numbers from is saying he thinks Shanghai is making 10000 cars a week or 50% of production not selling in China like they thought. So Tesla is trying to shift them offshore. LHD though so Europe bound I guess.

You guess wrongly. The Shanghai plant also builds RHD EVs. NZ sold Tesla model 3 and model Y EVs are now sourced from China. The production sourcing switched away from California over the last twelve months, and there was a small price reduction at the time for the NZ market as a result (although I think this has subsequently been reversed). There were some small cosmetic upgrades at the time too. You can pick the Chinese sourced Teslas by their black door handles, which were chrome coloured on the earlier USA sourced cars.

SNOOPY

Walter

17-10-2022, 04:45 PM

One of the more reliable sales forecasters is TroyTeslike on twitter. He has revised deliveries down to 400,000 this quarter, well below current market guesses. If he is right, annual deliveries will be about 1.3 million. The Chinese economy is not in a happy place at the moment, although the Government is still supporting "new energy vehicles". There are, of course, big geopolitical factors to consider as well.
The other big factor is how many in USA put off delivery this quarter in the hope of getting a tax incentive next year. Higher income earners may not get the tax break and those that placed orders a while ago probably locked in lower prices, so may still take delivery. Thursday earnings will be interesting.

Dassets

18-10-2022, 07:02 PM

Fair enough Snoopy, I will adjust my figures for the 100 per week NZ buys and 400 for Australia. Unfortunately that isn't material.

Dassets

18-10-2022, 07:04 PM

I get TroyTeslike data prior to release on Twitter which is one of the data streams I pay for. I think it is 2 weeks prior or at least something like that.

Ferg

19-10-2022, 10:06 PM

Fair enough Snoopy, I will adjust my figures for the 100 per week NZ buys and 400 for Australia. Unfortunately that isn't material.
I was chatting to my neighbour who some years ago was taken on a tour of the Japanese car manufacturing facility for which he was a local dealer. I have withheld the name but it is one of the largest Japanese car brands. He was advised at lunch time, that in the time they had been at the factory that morning, the company had manufactured the equivalent of New Zealand's entire annual requirement. Our annual take was made in about 4 hours. That is how small we are.

Snoopy

19-10-2022, 10:38 PM

Ps I follow and pay for production numbers and actual sales. A guy I get some of the numbers from is saying he thinks Shanghai is making 10000 cars a week or 50% of production not selling in China like they thought. So Tesla is trying to shift them offshore. LHD though so Europe bound I guess. Problem is sales are not going that well in Europe.

Fair enough Snoopy, I will adjust my figures for the 100 per week NZ buys and 400 for Australia. Unfortunately that isn't material.

I was chatting to my neighbour who some years ago was taken on a tour of the Japanese car manufacturing facility for which he was a local dealer. I have withheld the name but it is one of the largest Japanese car brands. He was advised at lunch time, that in the time they had been at the factory that morning, the company had manufactured the equivalent of New Zealand's entire annual requirement. Our annual take was made in about 4 hours. That is how small we are.

I have a feeling my original comment, in a railway analogy, has been shunted into the wrong siding.

I wholeheartedly agree with both Dassets and Ferg that New Zealand as a vehicle market on a global scale is both tiny and for that reason, some might say irrelevant. And yes you could say that about Australia as well. However, these are both straw man facts to the point I was making.

Dassets conjecture was that the Tesla plant in China only made LHD vehicles (which I pointed out was wrong) and that because of their proximity to Europe, that was likely their largest export market. The reason I brought New Zealand up was because it was a RHD market and was half a world away from Europe. The point being that the Tesla factory in China has the capability to export to any market globally whether those markets be 'big or small', 'LHD or RHD'.

In the grand scheme of things, the fact that Tesla in China exports vehicles to New Zealand is irrelevant (as Dassets has already said). The fact that Tesla's plant in Shanghai is on the world's largest shipping lane and can export to any country in the world, LHD or RHD, is not.

SNOOPY

Dassets

20-10-2022, 01:20 AM

Sorry Snoopy but I never said that the China plant didn't make RHD. What I said was the demand for Tesla cars in China was weak so I suggested they would likely go to Europe instead. These are cars that I presume had been build as LHD for the China market and when unable to sell so go to another LHD market naturally. You have added 1 and 1 and got 3.14159265359.

Remarkably Tesla had to stop production for a whole day on 30th Sept? Why? Seriously they had run out of room to park them. That signals that their logistics plan/chain is FUBU.

Now I did say that I thought the result will miss but the share price could go up because I think the banks have been shorting Tesla to bid Elon after the result and window opens. So no wholesale selling into market, short squeeze followed by a decline as forecasts are reduced for next year.

pedro.nz

20-10-2022, 11:20 AM

2022 Q3 Tesla Quarterly Update (https://tesla-cdn.thron.com/static/WTULXQ_TSLA_Q3_2022_Update_KPK2Y7.pdf?xseo=&response-content-disposition=inline%3Bfilename%3D%22159bab3d-c16f-472a-8b55-af55accc1bec.pdf%22)

Dassets

20-10-2022, 07:12 PM

Ferg

20-10-2022, 09:41 PM

A bull puts forward his projections:

https://www.reddit.com/r/stocks/comments/y8sdc4/on_teslas_valuation_part_trois/?utm_medium=android_app&utm_source=share

ynot

21-10-2022, 07:45 AM

Down 48% this year. Wild ride. Not far behind Bitcoin on the year.

Walter

21-10-2022, 08:12 AM

Down 48% this year. Wild ride. Not far behind Bitcoin on the year.
Better than F&P healthcare in $nz terms and I'm not convinced that's not getting into buy territory soon.

Walter

21-10-2022, 08:20 AM

I'm a long term investor, so hope that Dassets is correct as I'm well underweight Tesla and could do with lower prices to top up into. I give FSD, the robot, model 2, robotaxi, Cybertruck, Semi, battery improvements, HVAC, renewable production and storage an above zero chance of happening. If some of them happen profitably at scale the current share price appears cheap.

pedro.nz

21-10-2022, 11:40 AM

And maybe in 2024...

"Elon Musk confirmed during the conference on the new quarterly figures that Tesla’s focus is now on the development of a new platform for smaller electric cars.
The goal with Tesla’s third platform, following those for the Model S/X and Model 3/Y, is to halve costs"

Crypto Crude

27-10-2022, 11:21 PM

Tesla the most overvalued and overhyped stock in the history of the share market....

Dassets

28-10-2022, 11:11 AM

I cannot see how it would be remotely possible to have a new platform anywhere near ready in 2024 which incidentally begins in 14 months. The amount of testing alone is over a year. Tesla have not been rapido when bringing new products to commercial markets. Tesla also doesn't have the plant for it and to even order it some sort of product development will have had to occur. The reality is Tesla has squandered what may have been a first mover competitor advantage on the real volume market. At a guess there will be 40 examples from other manufacturers in the space before Tesla's one sees the light of day. That is a fundamental mistake IMO.

Walter TSLA is 1.8% of the S&P 500 so it won't be hard to get to market weight in your portfolio. I, however, wouldn't invest in a company whose strategy relies on if they role out something at scale profitably. The Semi is nothing. BYD, for instance, has been selling that product for years as have others. Cybertruck's styling is just terrible. FSD is basically dead. Renewable energy is not a new concept , neither are robots, trying to make batteries outperform the laws of physics and chemistry, HVAC ok? I don't dislike Tesla at all but when I look at it with investment glasses on I don't like what I see.

Walter

28-10-2022, 01:55 PM

pedro.nz

28-10-2022, 03:52 PM

Yes, my thanks you both for your comments - good to read and weigh up same.

Another short-term factor is that it appears Musk has not had to sell any more shares to purchase Twitter, and so the removal of that overhang should have a positive affect pretty soon methinks...

Walter

29-10-2022, 09:18 AM

Today trees are being felled for the next German expansion. Tesla can't have been too put off by German bureaucracy and fake Green outrage. Part one was meant to ramp up to 500,000 cars a year, so starting on part two suggests Tesla is optimistic about Europe.

Dassets

02-11-2022, 11:06 AM

Thanks Dassets, I appreciate your point of view.

I'm just more optimistic that Tesla will continue to grow than you are. I own BYD, but if the Tesla Semi if half as good as Elon claims, it will wipe the floor of the similar BYD trucks. Tesla say they will produce 50,000 a year in 2024. You suggest no chance, I think some possibility. There are huge tailwinds, unless the new Government post midterms smashes them. Let's see how Pepsi get on in December.

You think no work has been done on Model Q, yet there is a design studio that has been operating in Shanghai for some time. Elon has also given a timeframe for it's release. It's unlikely they will deliver on time, but it will happen.

Cybertruck reportedly has more than 2 million orders. If only 10% of them actually pony up, that is still a big market. I think it could canabalise some of Tesla's other sales. Let's see if they produce in 2023.

FSD makes steady progress, 160,000 are using Beta now. I've seen it go from often wrong, to usually right.

Renewable is ramping quickly; they now have the capacity to produce faster. Tesla has a huge backlog of orders.

Marc Raibert, Chair and founder of Bosten Dynamics, disagrees with you about Tesla's robot. The target market at AI day broadly seems to agree. Many robots are available, Tesla's goal is to reduce the cost.

On historical earnings the shareprice as gone from nose bleed to expensive. None the less I can see a path to the current price being reasonable or even cheap. Some reasonable bulls suggest the 2024 PE is in the 20s. My biggest concerns are China and Elon's mouth.

Incidentally I didn't expect he needed to sell any more stock. Basically he got more cash from the earlier sales than almost anyone calculates. Why? People said he needed to pay tax on any of the stock sold that came from converted employee/exec/director options. Simple? No. Elon made a disclosure in February 22 that he donated 5.044M shares to an unnamed charity 3 MONTHS EARLIER!! Yes he had already exited stock and delayed the disclosure for 3 months. I wonder whether the unnamed charity could have been the Musk Foundation, set up to invest in renewables research and space. Now that stock was almost certainly sold at the time of gifting. The gifting generated a nice tax credit for Elon.

It staggers me that investors and analysts can't even pick up these details. Average work all round. That 3 month delay between disposal and disclosure is unreal especially given Elon's direct sale into the market later. Wow, was he maybe pulling the wool over people's eyes to protect later selling? A cynic would think that was possible.

All docs supporting the disposal to the charity and timing were filed with the SEC where you can find them.

BTW analysts will need to downgrade again next year as Cybertruck is not going to meet embedded forecasts next year of circa 80,000 after the announcement that it won't be assembled in quantity until late next year.

Walter

03-11-2022, 05:07 PM

Dassets

04-11-2022, 10:48 PM

Dassets, isn't part of your thesis that Cybertruck will not sell in any quantity? Who has an 80,000 Cybertruck forecast for next year? Bulls like James Stephenson forecast about 30,000 next year and expect Tesla to make a loss on them.

Think I saw the 80T estimate via Patreon - Troy Teslike, in a spreadsheet. The number was the production forecast but I cannot remember whether it was Troy's forecast that he was downgrading or it was an estimate of average analyst forecast views for 2023. My "thesis" supporting my short strategy doesn't factor in Cybertruck as a positive or negative, just assumes neutral. Tesla gets there on other factors for me. But my comment on sales for Cybertruck is only about sales numbers for next year.

I don't take much from the report in the last day about China deliveries dropping to 71,704 cars from its Shanghai plant from a record high of 83,135 in September, Bloomberg commenting on CPCA data. I want to see more detail on that.

A big problem is European markets. I subscribe to Matt Gasnier's sales site. Tesla is not getting traction in the main Euro markets(October country data being released now, France, Spain, Netherlands out already), in fact absolute sales numbers seem to be falling sept YTD year on year. My reservation over this data is the chunky deliveries that do occur. But for Tesla to get anywhere near its global ambitions on sales growth Europe has to be part of it. It just isn't happening at the pace it needs. Fine before when there wasn't competition but there is now and others are selling. Tesla is letting competition get meaningful market share. So the pie sure is getting bigger but Tesla is not getting the slice it needs to support its "targets" or valuation implied sales. I don't hate or love Tesla. I am just looking at it as a business BTW

whatsup

10-11-2022, 09:27 AM

What a fuc!in mess Musk is making with Twitter which is imploding on Tesla, he like Trump imho needs a public relations minder !!

ynot

10-11-2022, 12:00 PM

What a fuc!in mess Musk is making with Twitter which is imploding on Tesla, he like Trump imho needs a public relations minder !!

I wouldn't write him off just yet. He has a habit of getting results.

whatsup

11-11-2022, 10:19 AM

I wouldn't write him off just yet. He has a habit of getting results.

Yeh, but twitter is no private so no upside for Tesla except pain to cover its losses until it turns @ $4 mil per day losses.

Crypto Crude

14-11-2022, 12:23 PM

I warned everybody about Tesla... it being the most overvalued stock in all of history....
The price target is chapter 11...

Dassets

16-11-2022, 01:24 PM

I agree. Take about 7 years by my numbers. That is about when it cannot invest in any new models.

Dassets

17-12-2022, 08:47 PM

How is that short going?

Its going ok thanks!

Dassets

17-12-2022, 08:55 PM

Incidentally I didn't expect he needed to sell any more stock. Basically he got more cash from the earlier sales than almost anyone calculates. Why? People said he needed to pay tax on any of the stock sold that came from converted employee/exec/director options. Simple? No. Elon made a disclosure in February 22 that he donated 5.044M shares to an unnamed charity 3 MONTHS EARLIER!! Yes he had already exited stock and delayed the disclosure for 3 months. I wonder whether the unnamed charity could have been the Musk Foundation, set up to invest in renewables research and space. Now that stock was almost certainly sold at the time of gifting. The gifting generated a nice tax credit for Elon.

It staggers me that investors and analysts can't even pick up these details. Average work all round. That 3 month delay between disposal and disclosure is unreal especially given Elon's direct sale into the market later. Wow, was he maybe pulling the wool over people's eyes to protect later selling? A cynic would think that was possible.

All docs supporting the disposal to the charity and timing were filed with the SEC where you can find them.

BTW analysts will need to downgrade again next year as Cybertruck is not going to meet embedded forecasts next year of circa 80,000 after the announcement that it won't be assembled in quantity until late next year.

Well I was spot on with the stock that went to a charitable being Musk's. Now confirmed. My theory of the tax spot on. I suspect he was also selling last night looking at the volumes. I truly don't know where the mid term bottom is for this stock but I have expressed my 7 year view. Tesla will likely merge being a mere shell of its past glory or go bust. IMO those outcomes are now baked in. Tragedy for a lot of people and I don't say that glibly.

Dassets

17-12-2022, 08:58 PM

Walter

18-12-2022, 10:06 AM

Its going ok thanks!
It's great that your short term thesis is playing out, Elon's mouth and Twitter purchase has helped. Not that the falls are Tesla specific, you would have done as well or better shorting Ryman, Meta, Amazon, Ford etc. The drop in price means that I am happy to slowly increase my exposure - the plan is 5-10% of my portfolio, but I'm in no hurry. I've mentioned before that I'm less pessimistic about Tesla's future than you. I think Q4 22 will be ok, but Q1 23 to be very poor.

whatsup

26-12-2022, 04:03 PM

I warned everybody about Tesla... it being the most overvalued stock in all of history....
The price target is chapter 11...

C C , You talk sooooooo much rubbish , I bought ( 50 shares ) in Testa June 2017 @ $381 each and again ( another 50 shares ) @ $470 Jan 2020 sold 3/4 @ $402 after a 4 for 1 split !! this ant the last of Tesla it will be around for years as the leading E V despite Musk being a nutter just like must on the Ponzi crypot Ponzi !!

Dassets

26-12-2022, 08:58 PM

I am not on a beat up Tesla or Musk crusade but will continue to comment on anything I think could be material. People can use the info any way they like. That is the way markets work. But rest assured I verify, if possible, the base facts that I base my comments on. Just basic 101 for analysts.

Anyway I have been surprised by no respite for the share price direction. I basically closed out around 170 expecting some sort of bounce. The fall is now has the potential to do further perhaps catastrophic damage. Put aside the negative implications for apetite for bond issuance which TSLA was gunning for after gaining investment grade rating.

This damage relates directly to Musk's own pledging of shares to support debt in his personal capacity. I did see 92m were pledged as at December 2020, this is pre Twitter btw. Kimble Musk and Gracias have both pledged the bulk their holdings but I will focus on Elon. At the end of Dec 2020 the share price was $235 and has dropped 48% since. Now Elon has qualified for granting of stock options so that is a positive. But he has taken on Twitter. Also I understand that Tesla limits directors on pledging stick to maxing borrowing at 25% of market value. This is a major info point. I presume that Elon is very likely to be either pledging more stock to meet lender colateral requirements and or Tesla board limits. OR he is selling more stock or needs to(I suspect it is possible he has been the last few days, getting a 3 day gap between selling and disclosure.

If Elon has pledged ( a lot) more stock Elon is super vulnerable to attack from short sellers and so is Tesla.

If my scenario is right then possible outcomes are truly very unpalatable. Indeed from a risk point of view it is a risk that few would take on due to the position Tesla could be in.

Now this analysis lacks insight to the value change of the other investments presumably for which the debt was used. But having key executives exposed to margin issues like this is something many companies and executives avoid for precisely the downside of such a strategy.

whatsup

26-12-2022, 09:41 PM

If I recall correctly didnt he say this week that he had ended selling tesla stock ?

Walter

26-12-2022, 11:17 PM

If I recall correctly didnt he say this week that he had ended selling tesla stock ?
He has said similar things before and sold. My memory is this time he said he will sell none in 2023.

Walter

26-12-2022, 11:26 PM

There are a several issues in play. Elon and his situation, margin calls on the "retail" gamblers, whole market capitulation, the general economic outlook and the companies' finances. The last one is the one that I'm least worried about. Unless they have a need to raise capital the share price does not have much of an impact the health of the company. I remember a time when Apple was the equivalent of 30 cents a share, yet the company went from strength to strength.

Dassets

27-12-2022, 07:57 AM

I forgot to mention something important. Elon is not allowed to sell any shares from exercised options for a period of 5 years from exercise. The reality of his statement about not selling more shares could be this, that he has now pledged all the shares that are saleable( and that could easily be the case). If the lenders exercise their right of sale because he can't remedy a breach or he is forced via court order to handover shares from options to lenders for sale then technically he could say he didn't make the decision to sell them.

He called Twitter wrong and this pledge problem is not going to go away. Media will pick up on it in the new year and start writing articles imo. Just like my earlier warning on Saylor and his bitcoin margin issues at Microstrategy and later media prick-up.

Dassets

28-12-2022, 06:37 AM

My Xmas cracker had this joke in it...What has Tesla and a flat basketball got in common? Neither bounce.

clearasmud

28-12-2022, 02:38 PM

Check out bestinTESLA.
This could have a big bounce
Chicken genius thinks $60.

Crypto Crude

01-01-2023, 05:42 AM

C C , You talk sooooooo much rubbish , I bought ( 50 shares ) in Testa June 2017 @ $381 each and again ( another 50 shares ) @ $470 Jan 2020 sold 3/4 @ $402 after a 4 for 1 split !! this ant the last of Tesla it will be around for years as the leading E V despite Musk being a nutter just like must on the Ponzi crypot Ponzi !!

You wee slug nugget...
Your brag is lame...
Wahaank on buzz....
Clearly you will not get the level of approval from your peers you desperately seek ...

Crypto Crude

01-01-2023, 05:47 AM

Check out bestinTESLA.
This could have a big bounce
Chicken genius thinks $60.

Chapter 11 I'd say

Walter

01-01-2023, 10:35 AM

Chapter 11 I'd say
What do you think will tip them over the edge? the cash in the bank? the positive cashflows? the diverse and growing income steams? or the efficient factories?

Dassets

01-01-2023, 05:25 PM

Actually it isn't as rosy as you think. I have mentioned this stuff before.

The cash in the bank isn't really true cash available. The company holds deposits on cars which is cash provided by buyers. I did the calc but can't remember off hand what the amount was but it is lots. Any thing like tesla underwritten insurance or warrantee also requires cash. Then the current payables account for the bulk of the rest of the cash leaving about $3B. Problem is Tesla has started to generate inventorywhich isnt immediately delivered. This will get worse and that needs a lot of cash. Thr buyback of cars or leased cars returning is a growing problem. Used values are falling. Finally each of the ten plants he wants to open by 2030 cist around $5B each with around another $2B in working cap. The price cuts in China and looks like elsewhere is cutting margins.

Revenue is definitely not diversified. It is highly concentrated on 3 models all consumer products. Semi trucks are obviously not commercially viable atm and cyber truck .. . My guess you will not like.

Don't forget the consumer slowdown.

Institutions still arent buying at these levels in any serious way.

Tesla cant issue bonds, no take in the market.

nztx

01-01-2023, 10:27 PM

Holy heck - TSLA down over 66.67% in 15 months (ie it's lost 2/3 of its adjusted Share price value)

https://nz.finance.yahoo.com/quote/TSLA?p=TSLA

Crypto Crude

02-01-2023, 06:34 PM

What do you think will tip them over the edge? the cash in the bank? the positive cashflows? the diverse and growing income steams? or the efficient factories?

It's only a theory it seems pretty plausible to me....
Musk is exposing the underbelly elite with the Twitter files releases... they will rug pull him and wont help finance Tesla.... these investors will also sell out...
Its also coming out that Tesla vehicles are not as good as thought...the batteries aren't that flash... people could also be waking up to climate change
Switzerland has banned ev cars apparently...
Musk has bitten off more than he can chew with all his projects perhaps he should sell the robo taxi business... free up cashflow... 400ish billion dollar company is huge...
Could be just a weak bounce here then downwards it continues.. Regardless... this is a good test case... profiteering from it or not doesn't matter..

Ferg

02-01-2023, 10:59 PM

Switzerland has banned ev cars apparently...

I think it is thinking about it.
https://economictimes.indiatimes.com/industry/renewables/why-switzerland-want-to-ban-electric-vehicles/articleshow/96021433.cms

Crypto Crude

02-01-2023, 11:57 PM

Walter

03-01-2023, 10:15 AM

Holy heck - TSLA down over 66.67% in 15 months (ie it's lost 2/3 of its adjusted Share price value)

https://nz.finance.yahoo.com/quote/TSLA?p=TSLA
Right up there with "dogs" like Ryman, but not as much as some FAANG stocks like META.

pedro.nz

03-01-2023, 01:37 PM

Sold 1.3 million cars in 2022 - 40% increase on the year before which in my opinion is not too bad given the current market conditions. Reporting on Jan 25th so will certainly be interesting to see the figures…

pedro.nz

03-01-2023, 02:00 PM

Also, they are planning to host an Investor Day on 1st March.
Will be live streamed from the Texas gigafactory and they will be displaying their most advanced production line. Long term expansion plans, generation 3 platform and capital allocation are some of the other subjects to be discussed…

Walter

03-01-2023, 08:05 PM

EV cars are a one big hoo Har.....
I've seen recent videos from USA showing it costed more to charge a car than it would to fill it with gas....
It's just the same footprint if not more... instead of petrol it just piles more pressure on the main power grid with charging... they are not adding capacity to the power grid...

Be super careful about Tesla... understandable there should be a bounce... but 400ish billion market cap is still huge for a company with no real profits.....
After musk exposes mainstream, tesla failing is the only thing that now makes sense.....

where is teslagod...?
In USA charging on a roadtrip may be similar to paying for gas, but most people charge for much less at home for their daily needs.
They charge off peak at cheap rates, not when everyone has their aircon on.
I expect the growth rate to moderate, but here is their sales history
2012: 2.7K2013: 22.5K (+733.3%)2014: 31.7K (+40.9%)2015: 50.6K (+59.6%)2016: 76.2K (+50.6%)2017: 101.3K (+32.9%)2018: 245.2K (+142.1%)2019: 367.5K (+49.9%)2020: 499.6K (+36%)2021: 936.2K (+87.4%)2022: 1.31 Million (+39.9%)

There is much noise about their Q4 delivery miss - they have about 70,000 cars in transit, at shops or in storage
That is 13 days sales.
I actually expect Q1 to be brutal. Energy may save it though

Dassets

04-01-2023, 09:50 PM

Hi, a quarterly miss doesn't really mean much on its own. However for me it is quite obvious the reasons for the miss are much more the real story. I was playing safe due to my concerns about Musk selling in a structured way so reduced my short from 900 to 400 this morning. Don't regret rebuying shorts but I am now am confident from this result I have a good handle on the company.

I am going to build a bigger more permanent position. Finished product inventory over the next 12 months will keep growing.
There are downgrades happening. However that doesn't matter because retail buys it until they don't.
.

Note my comment re inventory build up. My earlier comments point out the issue with this. It is a permanent development and will suck capital. For instance the inventory build up for Q4 sucks up another US$1bil, yes that is right. That is probably now $1.5BIL in inventory build-up for Q3 and Q4. Cash is basically accounted for, ie no buy-back or meaningful one. Might be a pretend one.

Walter

06-01-2023, 11:09 AM

Yes, with growth has come logistics and inventory issues. There were 3k cars sitting at Berlin airport waiting to be shipped to Taiwan. There are 4k cars waiting to get into Australia. Those two minor markets alone account for 10% of the 70K in transit, at delivery centres, at factories or in showrooms.
New Zealander Tom Zhu has now been put in charge of global production. He has done a fine job getting Shanghai humming, hopefully he will get Texas to rapidly ramp.
There are now new Tesla battery production facilities in Shanghai, Berlin and Texas that are yet to pull their weight. If they can get the new tech viable Tesla battery costs will plumet.
February 2021 was when Tom mentioned designing a car for China. From memory, the Shanghai Research and Development Centre started in October 2021 as did the Shanghai Data Centre. It would be foolhardy to assume they have spent the last year and a half doing nothing.
One way or another Tesla is always an entertaining company.

Walter

06-01-2023, 11:21 AM

It's only a theory it seems pretty plausible to me....
Musk is exposing the underbelly elite with the Twitter files releases... they will rug pull him and wont help finance Tesla.... these investors will also sell out...
Its also coming out that Tesla vehicles are not as good as thought...the batteries aren't that flash... people could also be waking up to climate change
Switzerland has banned ev cars apparently...
Musk has bitten off more than he can chew with all his projects perhaps he should sell the robo taxi business... free up cashflow... 400ish billion dollar company is huge...
Could be just a weak bounce here then downwards it continues.. Regardless... this is a good test case... profiteering from it or not doesn't matter..
You might be right on the politics side of things, although I think the bulls are too paranoid about the risk.
There is much shouting about how the new tax credit cuts out much of Tesla. They have gone from no cars getting it to some getting it. The credit does appear intellectually challenged. $79,999 hybrids are getting $7,500. Ford Mache E and the new GM Equinox are capped at $55K for the credit. Tesla Model Y is capped at $55K, unless it has 7 seats, then it is capped at $80K. VW ID4 gets the $80K cap if it is AWD. The rules breach many trade agreements anyway, so it's wait and see. It appears to me that Tesla will benefit, just not as much as the uberbulls hoped.
There was a report released showing Tesla in California employs massive amount of people at higher-than-average wages and pays lots of tax. Perhaps that will temper some of the hate, but probably not.

nztx

20-01-2023, 03:18 AM

https://www.abc.net.au/news/2023-01-19/elon-musk-depicted-as-liar-visionary-in-tesla-tweet-trial/101874512

Elon Musk depicted as liar and visionary in damages trial over 'false' Tesla tweet

The prospect of a $US72 billion ($104 billion) buyout fuelled a rally in the company's stock price that abruptly ended a week later after it became apparent that he did not have the funding to pull off the deal after all.

Tesla shareholders then sued him, saying Tesla shares would not have swung so widely in value if he had not dangled the idea of buying the company for $US420 per share.

Nicholas Porritt, a lawyer representing Glen Littleton and other Tesla shareholders in the class-action case, criticised Mr Musk as he addressed jurors.

"Why are we here?" Mr Porritt asked.

"We are here because Elon Musk, chairman and chief executive of Tesla, lied.

"His lies caused regular people like Glen Littleton to lose millions and millions of dollars."

Hey Elon - it's a special tailor made CLASS ACTION from your TESLA shareholders left damaged :)

Enjoy :)

Dassets

25-01-2023, 08:11 AM

I have started shorting this thing again, only retail buying, raw materials are heading up, only the US cars making money, ROW isn't. Expect work to start on cheaper car, what is the point aftetr the price cuts. Over 40 EVs will be launched this year again. Bringing the offering to 80+ . 2023 EPS estimates already down 30% over the last 90 days.

pedro.nz

25-01-2023, 11:58 AM

4th qtr results after tomorrows session.
And probably formal announcement of new factory in Nevada for semi truck.

Walter

25-01-2023, 04:14 PM

4th qtr results after tomorrows session.
And probably formal announcement of new factory in Nevada for semi truck.
Tesla is committing US$3.5Billion to build their "FIRST high volume Semi factory".
Dassets assures us the Semi will be a failure, one of them will be wrong.
Part of the investment will be a 100 GWh 4680 battery factory, Tesla are slow learners, they have underperforming scale battery plants in Texas, Berlin, Shanghai and Nevada. What are they thinking?

whatsup

26-01-2023, 09:29 PM

4th qtr results after tomorrows session.
And probably formal announcement of new factory in Nevada for semi truck.

Already announced, Google for updates !

pedro.nz

28-01-2023, 10:31 AM

Up approximately 33% this week...

Onemootpoint

03-03-2023, 01:05 PM

Apparently Investors day was a bit disappointing. Shares dropped like a stone ending the day nearly 6% down.

pedro.nz

14-06-2023, 12:57 PM

:t_up: 55.52% in the past month :t_up:

Onemootpoint

14-06-2023, 08:40 PM

:t_up: 55.52% in the past month :t_up:

Can’t complain about that.

pedro.nz

16-07-2023, 01:24 PM

First cybertruck out of production - let's see how enthusiastic the market is next week:)

pedro.nz

16-07-2023, 01:26 PM

In conjunction with Q2 earnings release

Joshuatree

11-04-2024, 09:33 AM

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=QhhYj8uCluM
These diesel heads are pretty smitten with the cybertruck.Have finally bought a first parcel of shares,am prepared for some volatility ahead

Joshuatree

12-04-2024, 09:49 PM

Good interview about the embedded value in Tesla
https://hotcopper.com.au/opinion/contributors/148150/will-tesla-tank-or-is-its-tech-compelling-for-the-future

Swala

14-04-2024, 10:48 AM

Thanks for posting. As a Tesla investor it's good to revisit what the vision is to help deal with the day to day ups and downs!

Joshuatree

20-04-2024, 03:59 PM

Thanks for posting. As a Tesla investor it's good to revisit what the vision is to help deal with the day to day ups and downs!

Cheers,Swala,yes like now ehh.Hetes some int comments from Markets Insider
First, Tesla needs a response to the negative growth trend that's developing within China, where homegrown firms such as BYD are chipping away Tesla's share of Chinese demand.

The company will need to detail its strategy for how to regain this key market, and remain competitive against rival competitors — both offshore and domestic.

Second, Tesla's must offer realistic and clear guidance for its growth, margins, and free cash flow. Otherwise, this remains a "guessing game" for analysts and fuels uncertainty, Ives warned.

Third, clarity on whether Tesla is still developing the Model 2 car needs to happen. Confusion first started when Reuters reported that the company would ditch these plans to instead create a robotaxi platform, which Musk later denied.

"If Tesla does not come out with a Model 2 the next 12 to 18 months,thesecond growth wave will not come. Trading in Model 2 for robotaxis would be a tragic gamble in our opinion as full autonomy we do not see until 2030 for the industry," Ives said.

Fourth, it's time for Tesla to address its plans around artificial intelligence, and end uncertainty as to whether these initiatives will even remain in Tesla's domain. That's after Musk threatened to pull these projects outside of the company, unless he receives a 25% ownership stake in the firm.
Finally, Tesla needs to show-off these developments, by announcing an "AI day."

"The AI story, autonomous, FSD, Optimus, robots is another major value to the Tesla story but it's all behind closed doors," Ives said. "The Street needs to understand the roadmap, monetization, and overall strategy for the AI story at Tesla which right now is getting no credit for its AI endeavors."