NZX Short Term Trading - Stocks and Theories

[nextbigthing]

There seems to be a bit of interest recently in short term trading NZX stocks (by short term I mean anywhere from intra-day to a couple of weeks).

There also seems to be a bit of annoyance regarding people clogging up individual posts - fair enough.

So here's a thread for us all to discuss good stocks to trade and the theory behind it.

I would start by suggesting ATM. It's in a downtrend at the moment but could be a nice opportunity when it turns.

NBT

[nextbigthing]

. My reccomendation is for a buy with a quick sell. If it bounces later this week will you buy me a turkey? A fall to 75 tomorrow should see a nice fat bounce as it will be well and truly oversold then. Nothing wrong with the company at all, just a little panic

Moosie, I stole this quote from the ATM thread. What makes you say it will break the downtrend. It may be oversold but what's to stop that continuing?

[nextbigthing]

Another obvious one is PEB. The support ended up piling in at $1 yesterday*

*NBT knows little of TA. Do your own research

[Hoop]

Day trading is very risky and reports in few years ago showed that 90%-95% of the day traders fail ..not sure if these failure rates has improved with better internet speeds
Short term (few days) less risky the rewards are great but risk and transactions costs are still too great.......

I suggest that most people on ST should avoid these first two TA disciplines...

Most of the charts I use and post on ST are default settings (medium term) ...default settings are considered the sweet spot between risk v reward and considered the best TA option for the masses with basic TA knowledge..Using stop/loss automated machinery with default settings you are not chucked out unnecessarily as one would under a shorter term trading...

Long term TAtrading is not as efficient as too much is lost before the sell signals and getting in with the buy signals are far too late..contrary to belief the risk is no lower because entering late and exiting late increases capital risk..However long term charting is incredibly useful in showing the bigger picture..I use this method often

[MAC]

Or you could go one significantly better again and lead a tax free, very low brokerage life and simply buy the fundamentals, watch, analyse and assess. Yes, this is quite different to passive ‘buy and hold’.

Buy when the fundamentals are prospective and the SP low, rebalance when the fundamentals reverse and the SP is high. We have a unique taxation system in NZ that offers investors incentives for this type of portfolio management and IMO it's an opportunity wasted if not taken up.

In addition, short term traders are fantastic folk, they swing the SP around fundamental valuation and frequently provide very good entry and exit points over months and years.

I’ve never met a successful short term trader, you don’t even read about them in the press much. I've met quite a few successful investors and it seems there are very many more out there in the world, there is a reason for this.

[Mista_Trix]

PSAR combined with OBV and RSI are good if you can find the right companies to apply them to medium term.
I was watching (although have not yet committed as I dont feel I know enough about what I'm wanting to do yet, and haven't written 'rules' for my behaviour) both SUM (still is) and RYM (now broken) as they were both following pretty good 'in' and 'out' patterns, moving steadily upwards while tracking within good std dev lines. Although as Winner pointed out, RYM would have forced you out a couple of times at the most opportune points when it dived, but then on the last it hasn't fixed itself yet...

I do like the idea of getting to know a set of stocks (someone mentioned ~25 on the PEB thread) intimately and moving in and out of those as they track.

This way of thinking is all very new to me, so its great to see others opinions, learnings and advice.

[nextbigthing]

PEB is not trading like a winner.
Nasqaq bio had very good rise overnight PEB has not.
If the market was positive for PEB buyers would need very few excuse's to buy at current levels that some say are oversold ..... rise in the nasdaq should do that.
Mr markets is clearly telling us PEB is fairly priced at $1-1.10

Interesting you say that Snap. Everytime it gets close to $1 it finds strong support, everytime it gets up towards $1.20 the sellers are there. So I was thinking the same thing, it may rock around in this $1.10 band until news comes.

DYOR

[SimonHouse]

I Cheers NG, I shall be asking you for help as I always seek to learn as much as possible (knowledgeS power).

Been watching the market every day now for over 3 years so I have an extremely good grasp on how the market moves and wgere the big boys are trying to drive it intraday.

No debt, no mortgage, very low student loan, partner who supports me (not financially!) and no dependents. I'm young and can fall back on my credentials (PGdip in Museum Studies and experienced in multiple fields) if need be.

I left my emotion on the DIL playing field a year ago. It is nothing but baggage. Think: Terminator. Ruthlessly stick to rules and take profits at every chance. Best lesson I ever learnt is that it's only money.

Stocks are vry different to Forex. Had a dabble in that and didn't like it (not enough volatility!).

What's your edge over the guys in towers with four screens with constant charts, live data and powerful trading budgets that can move prices?

[Schrodinger]

Newguy did you study Random Walk theory? If you look into it, currency trading is not a good market selection if you want to make money by yourself.

[skid]

Or you could go one significantly better again and lead a tax free, very low brokerage life and simply buy the fundamentals, watch, analyse and assess. Yes, this is quite different to passive ‘buy and hold’.

Buy when the fundamentals are prospective and the SP low, rebalance when the fundamentals reverse and the SP is high. We have a unique taxation system in NZ that offers investors incentives for this type of portfolio management and IMO it's an opportunity wasted if not taken up.

In addition, short term traders are fantastic folk, they swing the SP around fundamental valuation and frequently provide very good entry and exit points over months and years.

I’ve never met a successful short term trader, you don’t even read about them in the press much. I've met quite a few successful investors and it seems there are very many more out there in the world, there is a reason for this.

Your first sentence makes good sense Mac,but I was a bit surprised as I always interpreted your posts on the PEB thread as pretty much ''buy and hold''(undervalued at $1.70) and assumed that you did just that through the fall in SP.

But after reading that sentence,perhaps I was mistaken,and if thats the case, ''good on ya''

I do believe however,that even though a company like PEB is basically a good (great?) company it is still necessary to keep in touch with the outside markets(US) for direction especially in these times of not much else to go on in the way of news.

Ive heard many times from many posters the comment ''what has changed?'' in regards to a company and I believe that nothing has to change in the company to bring the SP down-the outside market only has to change to do that(Im talking mostly bigger than average change which gets peoples attention)

Your first sentence together with Hoops comments seem like good advice.

[skid]

I Cheers NG, I shall be asking you for help as I always seek to learn as much as possible (knowledgeS power).

Been watching the market every day now for over 3 years so I have an extremely good grasp on how the market moves and wgere the big boys are trying to drive it intraday.

No debt, no mortgage, very low student loan, partner who supports me (not financially!) and no dependents. I'm young and can fall back on my credentials (PGdip in Museum Studies and experienced in multiple fields) if need be.

I left my emotion on the DIL playing field a year ago. It is nothing but baggage. Think: Terminator. Ruthlessly stick to rules and take profits at every chance. Best lesson I ever learnt is that it's only money.

Stocks are vry different to Forex. Had a dabble in that and didn't like it (not enough volatility!).

Keep in mind the market has mostly been going up in the last 3 years Moosie and those that lived through the GFC may be coming from a different perspective (but I would imagine your DIL experience would compensate to some extent):) Good to see you have carried on with your journey.
You must be relatively thick skinned just to survive the abuse from some of the PEB posters who are not at all keen to hear anything but optimistic posts.
I got a pinged on my reputation the other day by a poster asking how I slept at night scaring newbies for a living (because I referred to the US markets and advised caution):confused:

[skid]

Now you've got me worried! Not enough volatility in forex? its too volatile!!

But yea, good luck dude

Ive got a friend who plays the forex market through the day,taking small profits pretty regularly through his system.

[winner69]

Brownian motion? Ummm...yeah I studied postgrad time series anlaysis

Talking of random walks these guys do some cool stuff representing then in 'art' form
http://gigapan.com/gigapans/106803/

[winner69]

Skid ....we must have pissed the same person off ...whoever sure spreading his goodwill around

[BIRMANBOY]

First week of kindie eh (sorry trading) Moosie...exciting. I'm sure many of us will be living vicariously through your experience. Since you are very out there with your opinions and thoughts, why don't you post a daily or a weekly diary with a running result so we can see how you are doing. Not to see you fail of course but to check the feasibility of it all. If it is working I will be the first to congratulate you and commiserate if it doesn't. No "told you so" will be uttered. No cheating or "forgot to mention" allowed. All open positions divulged but not to be included in results. No dollar amounts need to be mentioned just actual completed entry and exit points and % gains or losses as the case may be. Brokerage can be excluded since it is a "cost of doing business" and is viewed as an expense. Hope to see you defy the odds.
I cannot name a single tool in TA trading that is the most useful as they are all complimentary of each other and provide powerful knowledge when all used together to form a conplete view. Pretty much like when "all the stars are aligned". However, as with any tools, they need to be understood properly to be used to their full potential. It's not rocket surgery and after a few months of seeing how these tools work most people can use them to their advantage. All it takes is time, research and lots of patience waiting gor those stars to align.

Not every day is a trading day; sometimes you just have to wait it out as nothing hits the right buttons!

I'll keep everyone informed on how my first week of trading goes to see if I can make more per week than my current job (post tax of course!) Or not. Signs right now indicate I'm in the "lucky" 5-10% (I think this is a myth btw!)

[nextbigthing]

Was that on the PEB thread? I got pinged over there several times as well. Depending on peoples moods, if you go on the PEB thread and say anything other than full gung ho support for a $2 SP you can be subject to negative reputation.... Bit sad, but luckily reputation points mean jack sh!t at the end of the day:)

I managed to get a negative rep and a positive on the same post. Wish people would leave their callsign either way.

[skid]

that's so funny that people get so upset that they give others bad karma online. even funnier that this site enables such venting. Might have to give it a try some time!

I had to take 3 prozac:):):) Its actually one of the great mysteries of Share Trader--maybe they set it up as an amusing sidebar to the world of Sharetradeing:)

[skid]

I still don't know how to give reputation points! Is there a guide??

Best kept a secreat--Its bad enough as it is--just kidding--I only accidentally found it myself as I decided to give some away as an Easter present:) (good ones I mean) Its the little black Astrix in the left hand corner below number of posts.
That will cost you one positive rep point:):)

[skid]

I noticed people discussing trading the NZD and just received this from the RBNZ today - thought it might be of some interest.

http://www.rbnz.govt.nz/research_and_publications/discussion_papers/2014/dp14_01.pdf

Can you imagine learning all that from scratch and then still getting it wrong:scared:

Im holding some $US, based on the crudest assumption that at some point there will be an economic event that will be big enough to cause a flight to the reserve currency and out of the more risky ,smaller $Kiwi, at some point in the year, with a greater change than interest in the bank. Also using the assumption that at 85cents its a harder road going up than down.

[skid]

only ever given 1 and that was to skol on the gold thread, then I learned you can block a poster which I did.
skol is really hung up on the negative side of gold one day he will be right but for the 5 years he has been bleating he has been wrong. give it up will ya!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

Skol is an interesting case--Ive often thought he has an agenda far more complex than just his opinion.
His ultra conservative views also extend to the oil posts and the US economy in general (Its always great)

Stll i guess it wouldnt be the same without him--Its entertaining just trying to figure out his agenda:)

[Carpenterjoe]

Hey guys, I know this is off topic. But has the direct broking depth screen always been behind the market? I thought it was only the portfolio option.

[Theracay]

Keep in mind the market has mostly been going up in the last 3 years Moosie and those that lived through the GFC may be coming from a different perspective (but I would imagine your DIL experience would compensate to some extent):) Good to see you have carried on with your journey.
You must be relatively thick skinned just to survive the abuse from some of the PEB posters who are not at all keen to hear anything but optimistic posts.
I got a pinged on my reputation the other day by a poster asking how I slept at night scaring newbies for a living (because I referred to the US markets and advised caution):confused:

I suppose if Moosie is going to start daytrading stocks, couldn't he just transition to forex during a recession?I imagine it would be quite similar.

[nextbigthing]

Hopefully this China formula business will create some buying opportunities tomorrow

[nextbigthing]

Crikey what's happening with GEO? Checked the prices this morning and it was up about 9%, check the prices now and it's down 8%, all with no announcements. That's a big intra day variation!

[Under Surveillance]

future's trading starts next week on the NZX
Not according to the NZX: Following the successful completion of Equity Derivatives testing, NZX is pleased to announce the launch of Index Futures on 16 June.

[Trader101]

Hi Moosie, I hope your trading works out for you. Its not easy trading for a living full time. I have been full time trading now for over 4 years and have over 35 years or so experience with trading/investing. I enjoy the challenges the markets brings. My only advise is find a trading system that works for you as an individual and suits you needs/requirements.

[nextbigthing]

Yup, someone still keen to offload. Careful out there!

Price still seems to be holding nicely.

[JimHickey]

PEB share's had a bit of depth to them this morning that got taken out real fast.
Not a good look and is now sure to trade lower today.
good call.

[skid]

There does seem to be a move to blue chip and out of growth ATM

http://money.cnn.com/2014/05/07/investing/stocks-markets/index.html

[skid]

There does seem to be a move to blue chip and out of growth ATM

http://money.cnn.com/2014/05/07/investing/stocks-markets/index.html

[nextbigthing]

NBT hope you have not bought those ATM share's yet.
Currently there is alot of off market trade's happening(insto's trading amonst themselves) but I believe one insto is holding up the on market share price so they can off load bigger parcels off market at the right price.
Dont be fooled as when that insto has unloaded what they want too the on market support will dry up.

NBT decided not to fight the downtrend. Not in for now.

[skid]

There does seem to be a move to blue chip and out of growth ATM

http://money.cnn.com/2014/05/07/investing/stocks-markets/index.html
Which continued last night --NBI hit pretty hard
https://nz.finance.yahoo.com/echarts?s=DIL.NZ

[nextbigthing]

So chartists/traders.... A good chance to prove you're worth your salt.....

ATM is in a downtrend at the moment, when and how do you envisage trading it? What price are you looking at to get in?

[nextbigthing]

I am just a learner when it come's to TA but do know that traders use a break down through the 200dma as very bearish.
I like to use volume trading patterns.... for example it was obvious due to the unusual amount of off market trade's earlier in the week that an insto was off loading.
Insto's are master of stock manipulation and while they unload off market they will attempt to steady the on market price.(very little volume is required in ATM to do this in comparison to the level of off market dumping).
This created false support and is why the stock held up remarkebly well earlier in the week.
Please refer to my post 61 made earlier in the week on the NZX short term trades thread.

Snap I stole this post from the ATM thread to keep that one on topic.

Is there anywhere you can view all the historical trade data? It would be interesting to view the on market trade volumes versus the off market volumes.
ANZ gives the last 10 or 20 trades but it would be good to be able to view it all later on

[nextbigthing]

Taken from the PEB thread to avoid clogging that one with 'charting stuff'


Bollinger Bands are starting to squeeze up again...When this happens it suggests either a trend change or change of tempo of the existing trend. As PEB is trendless atm the Bollinger Bands are suggesting then will be a trend forming..

Will the future trend be up or down...We don't know for sure.
We can observe trading behaviour for clues such as insider trading..of course they will be amongst all the other traders both long term and short term, optimistic and pessimistic traders all smudging the overall trading results of the day...

Charting using momentum & money flows indicators etc can pick up the larger insider movements...

Below is the PEB chart with expanded indicators and less S&R lines drawn in..Although DMI is only a price behaviour indicator I have added it because its a fast enough indicator to pick up price changes however it won't react to slow stealth buying as it is not designed for that .... but its my favourite..

From the chart it shows RSI and the MACD have fired buy signals. Both indicators have momentum variables incorporated in them but as you can see the momentum indicator says its not the momentum causing the 2 buy signals ...The OBV is showing volume/price pressure is neutral...so these 2 buy signals must be from something else...maybe but not likely it could be stealth buying the disciplinced buying of just enough shares as to not cause a change in price hence trying to stay unnoticed long enough to complete their slow accumulation..

Its very possible it isn't stealth buying either..so the most likely behaviour that the indicators have picked up would be the low volume behaviour of small fussy buyers and sellers wanting their price and both not in a hurry to buy/sell.

Anyway time will tell which way PEB will go after this trendless period....

Note:..Normally with volatile stocks the outcome from squeezed Bollinger Bands isn't very long......but looking back on the chart history (July/August 2013) there was a period when PEB wasn't very volatile and the squeezed bands lasted 6 weeks...

http://i458.photobucket.com/albums/qq306/Hoop_1/PEB16052014.gif (http://s458.photobucket.com/user/Hoop_1/media/PEB16052014.gif.html)


Hoop,

For a lot of what you've said here you don't need a chart. Obviously it's tracking sideways as people await news and then it will most likely rocket in either direction on this news in a new trend. However what I find interesting from your post is the potential ability to pick up on insider trading. That would be very very useful! Were you able to pick (or can you now with the benefit of hindsight) signals for example that the managers were selling out before they announced it? Are you suggesting someone in the know is buying up now? What are the main things you're looking for with insider trading signals, how do you differentiate that from people 'taking a punt'.

Thanks for your time once again!

[nextbigthing]

From the SNK thread


And here comes the ramp up. Mysterious how those sellers have all disappeared on no news eh?

Are you trading it Moosie, beat them at their own game?

[nextbigthing]

As I have said before, I wouldn't touch that stock again with your next big thing. :)

I've never brought ethics into my buying and selling of shares, but there's always a first time and this would be at the top!

One could argue that if you're beating them to it and therefore taking away the profits they would have made, you're being ethical by stopping what was going to happen anyway. You could then donate the profits to a greatful cause such as the Cancer Society or NBT.

[skid]

Nasdaq up almost 1% and PEB sniffing around $1--Gotta wonder whats happening

[nextbigthing]

And there's our big seller again, waiting patiently for others to stack up through out the day then selling into it. Just likeclockwork :)

moosie stole this comment from you off the PEB thread.
The seller obviously knows what will happen if they break the support level of 99.
They are trading not too wake up the stop losses sleeping at 95-97cps.
Been at it a while now.

Any thoughts as to who it is? Obviously not a larger holder as they would have to disclose...

[nextbigthing]

PEB worth a trade at the moment? Thoughts?

[Snow Leopard]

PEB worth a trade at the moment? Thoughts?

:lol: :lol: :lol:
(aka :laugh: :laugh: :laugh: [for robbo24])
(aaka :t_down: :t_down: :t_down: [also for robbo24])

Best Wishes
Paper Tiger

[robbo24]

:lol: :lol: :lol:

Best Wishes
Paper Tiger

Are they nodding or shaking their heads???????

[robbo24]

:lol: :lol: :lol:
(aka :laugh: :laugh: :laugh: [for robbo24])
(aaka :t_down: :t_down: :t_down: [also for robbo24])

Best Wishes
Paper Tiger

That's a 9000 word essay.

[nextbigthing]

That's a 9000 word essay..

That's OK let me summerise the main points for you

:lol: :lol: :lol:
:laugh: :laugh: :laugh:
:t_down: :t_down: :t_down:

I trust this makes it clearer.

[youngatheart]

Gosh moosie, perhaps that next job you're wanting could be as life coach what with each Daily Inspirational message that you're fond of imparting...lol.

[Hoop]

Now Hoop that's a little unfair, depth is dynamic and it certainly didn't look that pretty earlier.

Good news that it's holding anyway.

PS Hoop I have a question for you on the NZX trading thread, cheers.
Sorry NBT when I copied the quote I didn't think...It was unintentional as I know depths can change radically...
You can get even with me by quoting my comfortable 99/100 support post :)...As I type now it is trading at 100c but that support in reality (depth) has just about totally disappeared ... it is only a 99/100 line on the chart now..As there is no floor at this moment in time any small negative trading could be enough to break down the charted support line....... technically speaking, the risk has got bigger... a lot bigger than yesterday even though there's no price movement today.


Taken from the PEB thread to avoid clogging that one with 'charting stuff'

Hoop,

For a lot of what you've said here you don't need a chart. Obviously it's tracking sideways as people await news and then it will most likely rocket in either direction on this news in a new trend. However what I find interesting from your post is the potential ability to pick up on insider trading. That would be very very useful! Were you able to pick (or can you now with the benefit of hindsight) signals for example that the managers were selling out before they announced it? Are you suggesting someone in the know is buying up now? What are the main things you're looking for with insider trading signals, how do you differentiate that from people 'taking a punt'.

Thanks for your time once again!
Actually I did need that chart...squeezing BB says a trend either up or down is predicted not a change in tempo as the chart shows the price as trendless...Why way? up or down? . The chart indicators sometime holds the answer... on this chart some indicators were up some down...The RSI is positive trending but I failed to mention that these and other overbought and oversold indicators can be considered inaccurate during trendless periods.That leaves the OBV and trend analysing indicators ..the momentum is neutral which doesn't help either..so all in all..trying to predict whether up or down needs good knowledge of how indicators work and which ones to use...overall the best indicators showed no positives so odds on the BBsqueeze was predicting a down trend to develop....However NBT we are dealing with variables and dynamics feature every single moment....making a TA life so unfair at times eh NBT?...

Insider trading discoveries is detective work using every resource available..
TA can be one of your tools... Development of personal sentiment indicators eg finding sectors that closely correlates with PEB then using the personalised sentiment indicator to find anomalies

The short term live charts e.g minute charts, to pick up individual trades and the accompanying indicators (money flow etc) can tell you if the are seller or buyer orientated..you can add your personal sentiment indicators that you have specifically set up ...they may show you where that money came from or went to through anomalies.

Probably, hundreds of other computer trading programs in use by different outfits ....after your money and promising the world via picking up insider trading activity...

[nextbigthing]

You can get even with me by quoting my comfortable 99/100 support post


Nah, I'd rather just annoy you by asking thousands of T.A. questions :)

Ps thanks for answering the above question

[nextbigthing]

Stolen from the PEB thread


Total shares (undiluted): 318,615,921

X .25 = $79.6M
X .50 = $159.3M
X 1.00 = $318.6M
X 2.50 = $796.5M
X 3.14 = $1B

Better be a good result!!!

Moosie man, what stocks aren't you dark on? What's your fav/watchlist at the moment?

[Xerof]

Moosie, the awesome news on Friday will be that we had the news (good or bad) on Thursday

[Xerof]

I'll keep an eye out on Thursday. You can wait for Friday moosie

;)

I've emailed for a confirmation

[nextbigthing]

I'll keep an eye out on Thursday. You can wait for Friday moosie

;)

I've emailed for a confirmation

Ha nice. You might be able to buy in at $1.70 on Friday Moosie :D

Xerof, please let us know the result if you hear back.

[Xerof]

Cheers, let us know eh? ;)

yep, I'll PM current holders.... and you too moosie:p


Certain components of this message are issued under the Paper Tiger pending patent

[Xerof]

Moosie, I got a reply - it's coming out today..........:t_up:

actually, got it before the ann came out, but for context, the reply stated 30 May is the LATEST DATE they can file the report, not necessarily the date it will be issued

[nextbigthing]

Nextbigthing holding the next big thing other than his own next big thing. What a lark!

If it reaches $1.70 I can guarantee you the Moose fund will have a piece of the action before it hits that level!

Sorry I had the decimal place in the wrong spot, I meant $0.17 :D

PEB seems to be holding up better than I thought it might. What are the T.Aers out there thoughts?

ATM seems to be happy tracking sideways awaiting news.

Someone snapped up all the MFT shares prior to open yesterday, it was quite impressive (annoying).

CNU also tracking sideways.

[Longhaul]

Interesting reading over threads from a year ago....

Anywho, does anyone have their eyes on any short term trading opportunities? Unfortunately I had been thinking about getting into Trilogy (TIL) but missed the boat today (not that anyone could have predicted the release of that announcement).

[nextbigthing]

Interesting reading over threads from a year ago....

Anywho, does anyone have their eyes on any short term trading opportunities? Unfortunately I had been thinking about getting into Trilogy (TIL) but missed the boat today (not that anyone could have predicted the release of that announcement).

A year or two ago when you asked that question, you were flooded with suggestions. The fact no one has replied may well be a good sign of the times.