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Bobcat.
08-05-2014, 03:25 PM
China reported today a whopping increase in its trade balance:

18.4B surplus (!) compared to 7.7B last period. Analysts were expecting an increase but only to around 13.9B.

Exports and Imports (YoY) are also up much higher than expected, indicating growing consumer demand.

It's no wonder they are buying so much offshore property and gold. At this rate, they will be the world's bankers before the decade is through.

Valuegrowth
05-01-2015, 06:01 PM
If I am correct, two Chinese benchmarks, the Shanghai Composite and the China Securities Index 300, came second and third in the list of best performing stock markets over the year.

NeverQuestion
02-07-2015, 06:35 PM
Hi Guys,

Looks like the Chinese stock market is starting to crash

3 days of close to 5% drops

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2015-07-01/china-s-stock-futures-fall-as-margin-debt-drops-for-seven

Any Predictions on what that might mean for New Zealand - Auckland Property Market Crash perhaps ?

Xerof
05-07-2015, 08:52 AM
Parabolic moves such as seen here are destined to crash, the hard part is finding the tipping point.

had to laugh though, I heard Chinese officials are hunting down the local funds that are shorting the snot out of the SSE (they will be charged with economic treason and shot I presume)

then I heard they also lifted the requirements on margin calls, (so investors might stop selling!!)

now I hear they will set up a 'stabilisation fund' to try and turn the market around.

TA shows no real support until ~ 3200/3300 on the SSE, but it'll do whatever the authorities want it to do I guess

Agrarinvestor
08-07-2015, 05:44 AM
Parabolic moves such as seen here are destined to crash, the hard part is finding the tipping point.

had to laugh though, I heard Chinese officials are hunting down the local funds that are shorting the snot out of the SSE (they will be charged with economic treason and shot I presume)

then I heard they also lifted the requirements on margin calls, (so investors might stop selling!!)

now I hear they will set up a 'stabilisation fund' to try and turn the market around.

TA shows no real support until ~ 3200/3300 on the SSE, but it'll do whatever the authorities want it to do I guess

Do you really think chinese stocks are to expensive ?
I think US stocks are several times more expensive. Specially if you look to balance sheet. LArge amounts of "GoodWill" and other bull****money. Poor of Cash flow, now growth, expensive management.
I tnelief chinese authorities are trying to protect the companies against short seller manipulation.

Here is tool where you can see US listed chinese stocks. Do you think they are expensive ?
http://finviz.com/screener.ashx?v=111&f=cap_microunder,fa_div_o2,geo_china&o=ticker

Xerof
08-07-2015, 09:58 AM
I didn't have any opinion on relative values. I was mentioning the fallout that usually always follows parabolic moves. I did mention the short sellers and the 'protection' mechanism.

what is your point exactly?

stoploss
08-07-2015, 12:51 PM
Hi Agrarinvestor , after today probably 50 % of the Chinese stocks will be in suspense.... Very hard to get a gague of where the index is or what the real value of a company is when they are suspended ..... carnage , more to come . The Government can't really help, take a look at Japan didn't really work out them keeping the index up circa 1987 .... last 20 years been going backwards ......
From reuters "Traders are increasingly nervous about the unusually large number of Chinese companies asking for their shares to be suspended from trading, fearing that many of them are looking for excuses to duck out of the turmoil.About a quarter of the roughly 2,800 companies listed in Shanghai and Shenzhen had filed for a trading halt by the close on Monday, and on Tuesday the Securities Times said another 200 announced a suspension."

Agrarinvestor
08-07-2015, 05:16 PM
I didn't have any opinion on relative values. I was mentioning the fallout that usually always follows parabolic moves. I did mention the short sellers and the 'protection' mechanism.

what is your point exactly?

My Point is that chinese Stocks are manipulated, by US based short sellers. Shanghai Composite has a great rrally during the past 12 month. A correction of 30% was healthy.
But is it necessary that US listed chinese stocks are thrown in the same basket ?
If you want to see what i mean with manipulation:
http://regsho.finra.org/regsho-Index.html
You can see daily short selling on US stocks, have a look at my favorites:GRO(Agria/PGW),CXDC, CGA

winner69
08-07-2015, 07:18 PM
You need to worry when you read stories about the amount of betting going on - one was about a group of guys betting on stocks on the subway on the way to work with very short time frames. One punter boasted he made the equivalent of 100k in the 30 minute ride to work. All too easy these days, easier than the casino in some countries.

robbo24
09-07-2015, 01:38 PM
You need to worry when you read stories about the amount of betting going on - one was about a group of guys betting on stocks on the subway on the way to work with very short time frames. One punter boasted he made the equivalent of 100k in the 30 minute ride to work. All too easy these days, easier than the casino in some countries.

69, do you ever find that the news stories always come too late?

They get people excited about boom-time at the peak of the bubble?

Equally, do you think they new people fearful at the time they should be greedy?

In summary, will the SMA200 on the Shanghai Composite (http://bigcharts.marketwatch.com/advchart/frames/frames.asp?show=&insttype=&symb=shanghai&x=39&y=18&time=8&startdate=1%2F4%2F1999&enddate=2%2F23%2F2015&freq=1&compidx=aaaaa%3A0&comptemptext=&comp=none&ma=4&maval=50%2C100%2C200&uf=8&lf=16&lf2=256&lf3=2&type=4&style=320&size=4&timeFrameToggle=false&compareToToggle=false&indicatorsToggle=false&chartStyleToggle=false&state=15) hold and offer a rally?

Reminds me of the time the DJI was crashing in mid October 2014 and I was like "the SMA350, duh. (http://bigcharts.marketwatch.com/advchart/frames/frames.asp?show=&insttype=Index&symb=dji&x=37&y=6&time=8&startdate=1%2F4%2F1999&enddate=2%2F23%2F2015&freq=1&compidx=aaaaa%3A0&comptemptext=&comp=none&ma=4&maval=50%2C100%2C200%2C350&uf=8&lf=16&lf2=256&lf3=2&type=4&style=320&size=4&timeFrameToggle=false&compareToToggle=false&indicatorsToggle=false&chartStyleToggle=false&state=15)"

Xerof
10-07-2015, 12:18 AM
In summary, will the SMA200 on the Shanghai Composite (http://bigcharts.marketwatch.com/advchart/frames/frames.asp?show=&insttype=&symb=shanghai&x=39&y=18&time=8&startdate=1%2F4%2F1999&enddate=2%2F23%2F2015&freq=1&compidx=aaaaa%3A0&comptemptext=&comp=none&ma=4&maval=50%2C100%2C200&uf=8&lf=16&lf2=256&lf3=2&type=4&style=320&size=4&timeFrameToggle=false&compareToToggle=false&indicatorsToggle=false&chartStyleToggle=false&state=15) hold and offer a rally?


yes, in fact a little ahead of my suggested support level


TA shows no real support until ~ 3200/3300 on the SSE, but it'll do whatever the authorities want it to do I guess

but as you astutely note, at the MA200 robbo. (jeez you're on to it - do you have a mullet?):D

Agrarinvestor
10-07-2015, 05:24 AM
You need to worry when you read stories about the amount of betting going on - one was about a group of guys betting on stocks on the subway on the way to work with very short time frames. One punter boasted he made the equivalent of 100k in the 30 minute ride to work. All too easy these days, easier than the casino in some countries.

In my case, it's a little bit more than betting. Today i bought Kone because i expect some 20% plus and tomorrow 100%. Sounds crazy, i know. Today i added more CGA because i expect 5o% plus until September.
CGA is a value play. Kne is the sister. Every time before earnings , and a few days later we saw 100% plus. Let's look tomorrow.

I'am concentrated on one single company. I jave done so much research, talked to employees. I am hoping that at the end of the correction we will see a better, fairer valuation. Alll these P/E's above 30 have to be corrected.

robbo24
10-07-2015, 07:27 AM
but as you astutely note, at the MA200 robbo. (jeez you're on to it - do you have a mullet?):D

No mullet, but for a short period of time in an evening of 2003 I had a dreadlock mullet. Kind of like a PHD of mullets.

A few months ago I read a story about HFT computer servers being moved into China. Whole offices of HFT servers.

In my experience HFTs usually just use pretty simple patterns and chart/TA points to make their moves - just got to hazard a guess which one it will be :D I wonder how many HFT operators will be arrested (http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2015-07-09/why-china-has-no-choice-arrest-sellers)?

So large institutions are banned from selling, "malicious shorters" are banned from selling, lending interest rates are cut, the omnipotent Chinese government is demanding their institutions buy stocks and they can't sell... These things don't make a difference overnight, give it a week or two and the China bubble may very well be back stronger than ever :D

Agrarinvestor
11-07-2015, 07:56 AM
You need to worry when you read stories about the amount of betting going on - one was about a group of guys betting on stocks on the subway on the way to work with very short time frames. One punter boasted he made the equivalent of 100k in the 30 minute ride to work. All too easy these days, easier than the casino in some countries.

As i told you:
>>and a few days later we saw 100% plus. Let's look tomorrow.<<

bought on Thursday for 3,75$ , sold on the next day for 7,10$. It happens every time when they announce earnings, crazy.:)

kiora
17-07-2015, 05:41 AM
Interesting article by Alicia Garcia-Herrero at Bruegel.org
http://www.bruegel.org/nc/blog/detail/article/1675-chinas-stock-market-falling-off-a-cliff-why-and-why-care/#republishing

Agrarinvestor
19-07-2015, 11:58 PM
Interesting article by Alicia Garcia-Herrero at Bruegel.org
http://www.bruegel.org/nc/blog/detail/article/1675-chinas-stock-market-falling-off-a-cliff-why-and-why-care/#republishing

Can not agree. The article is typical. Yes of course, there are a lot of chinese stocks, for example internet stock and others that have a high valuation and a lot of debt.
But in average chinese corporates are in a much better shape as US corporates.

If you use this stock screener you can find out healthy stocks with dividends, healthy debt equity ratios and hundreds of filters. In my opinion it is a good idea to concentrate on companys
that are growing in earnings, revenue and are paying dividends.
http://finviz.com/screener.ashx?v=161&f=cap_microunder,fa_eps5years_pos,fa_ltdebteq_u1,f a_pc_u5,fa_pe_u5,geo_china&ft=4&o=ticker

nextbigthing
28-07-2015, 06:57 PM
Looks like the boy with his finger in the dyke is getting tired :-)

Can't say I've heard that saying before. It's an interesting one!

nextbigthing
29-07-2015, 02:15 AM
It's a classic!
http://www.pantheon.org/articles/l/little_dutch_boy.html

Ha cheers for the link.

kiora
28-12-2015, 07:07 AM
China still awash with cash
http://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/news/article.cfm?c_id=3&objectid=11566645

Joshuatree
28-12-2015, 07:59 AM
Thanks kiora . $US516 billion spent buying up premier global business's just in 2015!!.

winner69
04-01-2016, 08:24 PM
Did China markets close early today or something?

Down a tad as well

stoploss
04-01-2016, 08:38 PM
Did China markets close early today or something?

Down a tad as well


circuit breaker

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2016-01-04/chinese-stocks-in-hong-kong-extend-annual-slump-as-yuan-declines

KiwiGekko
07-01-2016, 03:07 PM
circuit breaker

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2016-01-04/chinese-stocks-in-hong-kong-extend-annual-slump-as-yuan-declines

Faulty circuit breaker keeps tripping: http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2016-01-07/chinese-stocks-trigger-trading-halt-after-csi-300-declines-5-

China should really give their Electrician a call.

Valuegrowth
07-01-2016, 08:05 PM
Dramatic falls in Chinese market is going to create another great opportunity in global stocks markets. The Asian consumption boom is well known.

Valuegrowth
25-01-2016, 07:55 PM
China may have some crisis in their stock market and real estate market but there are wonderful opportunities as well.

The Chinese are the world’s most interested users of mobile technology and social media. In the Internet, it is winner-take-all.

There are a lot of world-class Chinese companies. In addition, companies such as Apple, Ford, GM and Starbucks could be some winners in the Chinese market.

There are companies that will benefit from the rapid growth in online consumption.

China has large number of mouths. They will have to import more protein stuff to feed their population as they have less arable land. Chinese consumer staples are going to be big business in the coming decade. Countries such as the USA, Australia and New Zealand will have more opportunity to export their protein products to China in the coming two decades.

Valuegrowth
01-05-2016, 01:30 PM
This will lead to lower farm land prices as well as lower property inflation in this region. Otherwise not only land prices but also food pries could go up dramatically.

http://fortune.com/2016/04/29/australia-china-land-buy/ (http://fortune.com/2016/04/29/australia-china-land-buy/)

Australia Is Blocking China From Buying 1% of Its Landmass

kiora
01-07-2016, 09:31 AM
Sellers beware,the tide is happening
http://www.4-traders.com/THAIHOT-GROUP-CO-LTD-12718360/news/Thaihot-China-s-left-field-buyers-shake-up-global-M-A-22598921/

Valuegrowth
13-05-2017, 06:34 PM
http://www.cnbc.com/2017/05/07/china-reports.html

Valuegrowth
18-07-2017, 08:52 PM
http://www.abc.net.au/news/2017-07-17/china-gdp-economic-data/8715426

Valuegrowth
25-11-2017, 02:40 AM
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2017-11-24/china-reports-breaking-up-gang-that-moved-3-billion-abroad

Valuegrowth
17-03-2018, 10:53 AM
http://www.dw.com/en/will-chinas-high-debt-levels-spark-a-financial-crisis/a-42976238

Will China's high debt levels spark a financial crisis?

https://www.cnbc.com/2018/03/12/bank-of-international-settlements-countries-at-risk-of-banking-crisis.html\ (https://www.cnbc.com/2018/03/12/bank-of-international-settlements-countries-at-risk-of-banking-crisis.html/)

China is at risk of a banking crisis, the Bank of International Settlements has found

Snoopy
01-01-2019, 06:35 AM
So large institutions are banned from selling, "malicious shorters" are banned from selling, lending interest rates are cut, the omnipotent Chinese government is demanding their institutions buy stocks and they can't sell... These things don't make a difference overnight, give it a week or two and the China bubble may very well be back stronger than ever :D


I think most here realise that China does not follow the 'free market rules' that some see as de riguer in investment markets. With so many NZ companies seeing their future fortunes tied up there, I think it is timely to review some of the 'investment rules' in what seems destined to become the world's largest economy.

1/ The EIT law or Chinese Enterprise Income Tax Act sets income tax at 25% for Chinese companies. In addition earnings repatriated outside of China are subject to an additional 10% tax. Dividends are subject to a 20% withholding tax if shareholders are individuals. Dividends can only be paid from retained earnings.

2/ An enterprise in China is required to set aside at least 10% of its after tax profits each year (after making up previous years accumulated losses). This money is to be set aside for certain reserve funds until it reaches a total of 50% of the company's registered capital.

3/ Companies operating in China are required to participate in various government sponsored employee development plans. These include social insurance, housing funds and other welfare orientated payments. These funds are taken via a percentage of salaries bonuses and allowances. However these requirements have not been implemented consistently across the country. This means there is potential for any company operating in China to be required to pay 'late fees' and fines for underpayment.

4/ All payments from China outside the country must be approved by both the 'People's Bank of China' (PBOC) and the 'State Administration of Foreign Exchange' (SAFE). Chinese exchange control regulations may restrict the ability to convert RMB to a foreign currency.

5/ Loans to Chinese companies have statutory limits and must be registered to with a local counterpart of SAFE. Foreign sourced loan money can only be used as directed by the government.

6/ The currency for doing business within China is the RMB (pr. Remimbee). The RMB is not free floating and exchange rates are set by the government. There is little opportunity for hedging the RMB within China, even to widely traded currencies like the USD.

7/ The 'Big Four' accounting firms have a presence in China. But their ability to audit businesses operating within China is restricted. Permission to audit is required from the Chinese government and in the past there have been restrictions that have lead to questionable audits. The big four firms are currently operating under a moratorium that expires in February 2019. This stems from a case taken buy the USA based Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) and an associated out of court settlement agreement that commenced in February 2015. If the big four firms do not follow suggested SEC procedures, then the SEC may impose penalties including suspensions, or commence new expedited administrative proceedings against any non compliant firm, or all four firms. Audits for US companies that do business in China must be in compliance with the 'US Exchange Act.' If compliance fails for US listed company reliant on that big four auditor, then then that company could be delisted from the New York Stock Exchange (NYSE).

8/ The Chinese Legal System is a civil law based system based on written statements. Chinese administrative and court authorities have significant discretion in interpreting and implementing statutory and commercial contractual terms. The Chinese legal system is subject to government policy (i.e. is not independent of the law makers) and internal rules. These may have retroactive effect and may not be published in a timely manner. China does not have a treaty with the USA providing reciprocal recognition of court judgements.

I have summarized to above information from the annual report of a US based company I hold shares in that operates largely in China.

SNOOPY

Joshuatree
01-01-2019, 11:54 AM
"China’s economic growth slowed to 6.5% (https://www.caixinglobal.com/2018-10-19/chinas-economic-growth-hasnt-been-this-slow-since-financial-crisis-101336775.html) in the third quarter of the year, marking the slowest year-on-year expansion since the first quarter of 2009"
'Slowing Growth' and 'Trade War' Define China's Economy and Finance in 2018Caixin Global·6 hours ago (https://www.google.com/url?sa=t&rct=j&q=&esrc=s&source=web&cd=13&cad=rja&uact=8&ved=2ahUKEwiFhYO7ocvfAhUDvbwKHYVnAnEQxfQBMAx6BAgAE As&url=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.caixinglobal.com%2F2018-12-31%2Fslowing-growth-and-trade-war-define-chinas-economy-and-finance-in-2018-101365278.html&usg=AOvVaw3n5_sQx1IAcCXmzToPyx9b)

kiora
29-05-2019, 02:59 AM
Ugly & only going to get uglier?
https://www.interest.co.nz/business/99892/1980s-us-portrayed-japan-grave-economic-threat-and-allegations-ip-theft-were-only