OFX Ozforex

[mark100]

Not usually a fan of buying into beat up shares but the fall in OFX looks like an over-reaction. It has been savaged because it was on a nose bleed PE and marginally missed some forecasts.

Underlying NPAT rose 33% to $20.1m (EPS 8.4cps) and active clients rose by 31% to 120,500 but missed prospectus forecasts of 123,000. Share price has fallen 25% in 2 days to $2.45. So the FY14 PE has compressed from 39x to 29x.

I note some broker forecasts for FY15 have now been pulled back from 35% growth to 25% growth. So FY15 PE is probably around 23x.

I took a nibble at $2.45

[dingoNZ]

I used them a few years back when I went to the states, they are on my current watch list with CTD. I'll probably buy in in the coming month

[samoooli]

Hi Guys,

First post!
Have been following and using this company for a while - very impressed.

Wondering thoughts on timing here?

- Supply has hopefully dried up a bit after SSH selling done
- Results due 25 Nov
- RSI oversold
- MACD turning?
- Deathcross still in place

Looks like ready for a run up into results coming off resistance

Thoughts?

Cheers,
S

[Joshuatree]

Hi sam ; have trawled thru my watch list and found QFX , again. I see re 20 million shares coming of escrow end of the month after half year results.Seems if QFX thrives in volatile markets its on fertile ground.

[samoooli]

I guess its a far less risky waiting for the uptrend to kick in for the sake of missing a few pips..

Thanks for the wise words!

[samoooli]

Results out: Profit forecasts met, NPAT $12mil (25% growth) and Maiden profit in the US, Nice!

[BFG]

Results out: Profit forecasts met, NPAT $12mil (25% growth) and Maiden profit in the US, Nice!

Very nice. As the currency wars and FX volatility heat up this company will do nicely.

[Toulouse - Luzern]

Maybe a safer way to make a few $ in FX

[BFG]

Maybe a safer way to make a few $ in FX

Didn't your mum ever tell you 500 to 1 leverage is safe as houses? :D

[ratkin]

Bought in yesterday at 2.48, slightly annoyed as was on the verge of buying them last week at what would have been a 10% cheaper price. They still look decent though, and having had dealings with the company in the last few weeks i can say their product is first rate

[Westboy]

Great Biz, I am in for the ride up! see how high it goes

[BFG]

Motley Fool is covering OFX. Expect retail inflows.

[baller18]

Bullish flag breakout as well? from hotcopper
I see resistance at 2.80 though KW?

[baller18]

Good time to top up kw? Or should be a little worried?
50MA at 2.62, 200ma at 2.64, if it crosses, and stays there, would this be a death cross?

[baller18]

Why the sell off? hm... getting close to the price dropping below the 200day MA...
The bears are taking the bulls down right now...

[baller18]

****!! I am having absolutely no luck right now with any stocks!!!

[baller18]

I tried to get in and buy some, taking advantage of the sell off, but no luck - the price bounced faster than I could amend my order.

For the record, some of the banks are taking the decision to exit the money services business due to the AML/CTF compliance risk and associated costs. However even the US Govt thinks this is stupid.
http://www.fincen.gov/news_room/nr/html/20141110.html

Mainly because its better to have money flows that can be tracked and traced than ones that can't (eg. bitcoin)

But doesn't this mean ofx is losing out on big customers though KW?

[BFG]

What a great chance to buy today on the panic selling of others. Gap pretty much filled down to $2.30 now.

Story hasn't changed, so why sell???

[samoooli]

I had my buy order at 2.25 :(

[BFG]

Basically no position in relation to CHF:

http://www.asx.com.au/asxpdf/20150119/pdf/42w1y2np4qj2tk.pdf

[ratkin]

out at 2.57 ended up with a dividend and tiny profit. Dont like bad news, it normally comes in threes

[skid]

Ive used them before and found it really good (and easy)--My wifes niece needed to have some money sent so I put her onto them--WOW! big time changes in security checks!!

Some claim that the US has gone so far overboard with their anti laundering and FATCA that they may have shot themselves in the foot with capital flight (foreign institutions etc.)

[baller18]

If it ends at $2.45 then we could be heading into a downtrend... sighs... I am having no luck lately.. thought ofx was in an uptrend, and suddenly it could change...

[skid]

Ive started a thread about this sort of thing in the off market topics.

[skid]

I think the US realise that. The issue started when banks decided to drop money services companies operating in Pakistan, but seems to have been taken to a ridiculous conclusion. If the banks shut down OzForex, Western Union and the likes, the criminals will simply go underground. Its much easier to monitor and serve a search warrant on Western Union than it is a bitcoin server in Nigeria. Once the Govt is unable to follow the money trails the ability to find and prevent terrorist attacks will be severely compromised.

i dont think they will shut down Ozforex,but having to comply with the new FATCA requirements is going to cost them money (along with all banks)unless they flat outright refuse to deal with any US citizens, or companies involved with the USA.

http://www.sott.net/article/286662-FATCA-what-How-to-fight-the-war-on-tax-evasion-one-American-at-a-time

[dingoNZ]

I have used the company a few times when I've gone overseas to travel and really like their business model and have had nothing but fantastic service. I've been keeping my eye on the stock for the past 6 or so months. Will keep an eye on it for another few day but looks like a good chance to buy in IMHO.

[Snow Leopard]

I use OzForex exclusively to move money between assorted countries.

Until recently they used to phone me up every time to check transaction details but they no longer do that - unlike the rest of the world's banking system which seems to treat me with greater suspicion that ever.

Anyway the Paper Tiger Australian Super Fund has added some OFX today.

Best Wishes
Paper Tiger

[baller18]

Me too. I think they only call you the first few times to ensure you know what you are doing, and to confirm the beneficiary details. Once all the beneficiary and transaction details are set up in their system they let you get on with it.

I picked up some more today as well :-)

HOw come u have purchased more KW? It is in a downtrend, and I remember your saying, "don't buy shares in a downtrend, you bloody idiot."

[skid]

Since OFX operate in the US I assume they already comply with all US regulation. And its a profitable business. Stuff like this is part and parcel of doing business - and the harder they make it, the more the industry will consolidate, and the bigger the competitive moat around compliant providers becomes.

Im not saying this will affect their bottom line ,but complying with US legislation on FATCA (for banks at least)means finding out if you have any customers who are US citizens or companies associated and reporting them to the (NZ-OZ)tax dept ,who in turn passes the information on to the US IRS taxman.
This apparently applies to any accounts over $50,000US--(but Im not sure how it works for a foreign exchange transaction)Technically the $ would be in their Acc-(although only temporarily)
My main point is the extra work involved in doing the US Internal Revenues job of collecting taxes,for not only its expat citizens ,but anyone doing business with them---Its costing some banks millions in new software.

They certainly spent alot more energy on my wifes neice than my past transactions---They wanted all kinds of stuff.
I would imagine they would be pretty annoyed with all the extra hoops they are having to jump through (if thats the case)

Not to say they would not be my first choice again,though.

[skid]

HOw come u have purchased more KW? It is in a downtrend, and I remember your saying, "don't buy shares in a downtrend, you bloody idiot."

Im a bit confused as well KW--I see the 50ma has just only crossed (or met) the 200ma but the SP is below the 50ma (by quite a bit)

Is there some other variable you are taking into acc?

[mark100]

I look at it and say the price is below the 200dma and the 200dma has always been in a downtrend. You could argue the price spike late last year was an anomaly and now it's back in the downtrend that formed after the initial profit downgrade.
Fundamentally, the numbers released since listing have been a bit soft which doesn't normally mix well with a high PE.

Doesn't mean it can't be traded though

[ratkin]

Pleased i sold out when the news hit. 2.57.

Dont really follow the logic of KW Putting it down to market stupidity is a big gamble. Its like saying you are riight and everyone else is wrong.

[skid]

I have been doing some research on OFX today........ it does look like the regulatory environment is getting tougher and no doubt this will have an effect on their bottom line.
unfortunately this is a good case to push the share price lower.
Disappointing that in their announcement they confirmed that it will not effect customers but did not/ could not confirm it would not effect their bottom line.
I must say after researching why Westpac have done this I am a little concerned about the regulatory issue's and the effect these issue's will have on OFX.
Don't forget Westpac have just ditch a major client in OFX and would not have done so lightly.
Perhaps some of the fine's being dished out was the decider.

In terms of not complying with FATCA -the fine is 30% of all US dollar transactions.(which includes Bonds which all banks use)

What rises out of this all,is the draconian stupidity of this law in the first place(FATCA)--The US is the only country in the world (barring one tiny country no one ever heard of) that has a citizen based taxation system. Forceing other countries to collect it for them is the economic equivalent of military intervention (only on its allies,instead of some small defenseless country that has resources)
ive been reading about the absurdity of this law for some time now,but the economic collateral damage is just starting to show.
Some banks have flat out refused to deal with any American citizen.
Ive heard stories of Swedish people ,working in the States,getting letters from their bank in Sweden,informing them that they are no longer acc holders of their bank and asking where to transfer their money.
Everyone is paying for this in fees. It is costing all banks and i believe it will ultimately cost the US as well,but for now ,the insanity goes on.
So the real issue atm is whether this is going to have a greater affect on a foreign exchange provider,than normal banks---they would certainly be in the cross hairs so I guess the real question is do the rewards stack up against the new liabilities.

If they (OFX)get a bigger market share,then that would most likely compensate,at least until ,hopefully someone over there realizes this has been a stupid ,expensive experiment,and with FATCA at least,has cost far more to implement (even for the IRS)than the returns.
This has certainly made the US no friends in the international banking community.

At some stage some bright spark will make the connection that this is not how you encourage business with the rest of the world.


As a sidebar-I read that when a high American official was asked about the citizen based taxation concept (of the other small country implementing it)he highly criticized it(not realizing that the US was doing the same thing)--whoops

[NZSilver]

MF put a sell on it (after recommending it only a few months back)

[BFG]

MF put a sell on it (after recommending it only a few months back)

Yes, note well people! Just as sentiment changed when MF started recommending it as a buy a mere month or so ago, so this will also have an effect on the SP.

http://us3.campaign-archive2.com/?u=0d1d0582254b8399936e6130e&id=820b45baeb&e=11e980a674

[skid]

Has anyone used them recently? Im just wondering if the new changes affect all or only new customers.
Im also wondering why ,if they (OZF)are meeting all the requirements,why has Wespac ditched them?
Like KW has said-Foreign exchange is not going away--I guess one question would be,how much more expensive will it get?
They operate in the States and Canada as well--how are they holding up (SP)over there?
(if they are listed)

[dingoNZ]

I did last month and hassle free, just transferred some $ into my Aus ANZ, simple and great rates still.

[ratkin]

I did last month and hassle free, just transferred some $ into my Aus ANZ, simple and great rates still.

I was going to use them, to bring in some inherited money from the UK however have since decided its easier just to have the money transferred here into my UK Pound foreign currency account, and await a more favourable exchange rate

[Hoop]

"Market stupidity........."

Hmmm..I guess the 2.8% fall so far today under your new fangdangle "assumption/opinion" discipline would see today Market more stupider...:);)

I think there is a good chance you could come out with a profit.. but your investment method is terrible and one day this new method of yours is going to get you into a lot of trouble

Back to TA...KW I thought you could've at least used your TA expertise to at least wait for the 3 broad candles hugging the Bollinger Bands to occur first (3rd one occuring today) before jumping from a cozy environment into the frying pan..this together with Williams% (already showing an entry signal) and aid of Support areas would better time a punt at a bottom entry...Maybe later today is the time to buy for the high risk/high reward speculators....

Also, KW... have a look at the complete chart (15 months I think) Look at the history regarding past high volume price dips most of them quickly recovered so there seems to be a good chance of a sudden rise occurring again... but why not let TA do the buy timing for you...If you desperately want in why not use the higher risk/higher reward option of using shorter term (hours or minute charts)TA..............opinion is made up of emotion and biases..that is the reason you use TA because it eliminates those bad investment practices...

Disc: not interested in specking OFX

[skid]

Makes for interesting reading though--One thing I like about you two (KW-Hoop)is that you are happy to put your decisions and research in real time.
Regardless of who turns out right,its interesting to observe.

[Hoop]

Makes for interesting reading though--One thing I like about you two (KW-Hoop)is that you are happy to put your decisions and research in real time.
Regardless of who turns out right,its interesting to observe.

The beauty about forums...respecting & accepting others point of view with an open mind and learning from them debating whether right or wrong.....awaiting to be educated from KW response..:D:D

[baller18]

Whoa you r really bullish on this stock KW.
Definitely not your investment style, reading your posts, always thought you investment style was TA + FA = RA, which OFX does not atm.

[Hoop]

KW you will be happy to see that gap down at opening has closed...didn't take long..eh?

[Snow Leopard]

I think you have upset a few people KW.

There you were telling us all how you made your first million dollars by carefully using 200 and 50 day moving averages to time your buy and sell, and everybody and his cat now quotes this around the threads, you have disciples.

But you have bought on the drop and that has disappointed them.
You are not following the true way.
How could you do this?
Their faith in you is shattered.

I hope that this works out for you (and me).

Best Wishes
Paper Tiger

[skid]

This could be your claim to fame KW!

Highly entertaining stuff--

It has'nt upset me--(still pretty happy with your more conventional recommendation--(NAN)

(did he say your first million dollars?):)

[skid]

I think you have upset a few people KW.

There you were telling us all how you made your first million dollars by carefully using 200 and 50 day moving averages to time your buy and sell, and everybody and his cat now quotes this around the threads, you have disciples.

But you have bought on the drop and that has disappointed them.

To be fair--KW has mentioned a few blunders along the way as well--(like all of us)
You are not following the true way.
How could you do this?
Their faith in you is shattered.

I hope that this works out for you (and me).

Best Wishes
Paper Tiger

To be fair--KW has mentioned a few blunders along the way as well--(like all of us)

[Hoop]

Lets be honest here Guys.....we all have a flutter or two..So congratulations and well done KW :D.....just, don't make a habit of ill-disciplined behaviour http://www.sherv.net/cm/emoticons/hand-gestures/fingerwagging-smiley-emoticon.gif...For the rest of us read the caution label before using

As skid says this has been an entertaining thread these last couple of days...it's been fun:)

[Snow Leopard]

Lets be honest here Guys.....we all have a flutter or two..So congratulations and well done KW :D.....just, don't make a habit of ill-disciplined behaviour http://www.sherv.net/cm/emoticons/hand-gestures/fingerwagging-smiley-emoticon.gif...For the rest of us read the caution label before using

As skid says this has been an entertaining thread these last couple of days...it's been fun:)

It is only a flutter IF you do not know what you are doing.
If you have a plan with exit criteria, which you are willing to adapt as circumstances change, then it is not ill-disciplined.

I rarely do this sort of thing but my track record over the last couple of years is good.

Best Wishes
Paper Tiger

Disc: hold OFX and [currently] in profit (though small).

[skid]

FUN= watching other people using their money
FUN=using your own money and winning

Not so Fun=Using your own money and losing

Its been fun watching but my best lessons have been those warnings of what not to do

[ratkin]

Its not lookin so flash today, good day for the overall market too

[skid]

So if this doesnt work out,then you should of listened to KWs advice and stick to the charts.....er..or something like that...:):mellow::(:mellow::)

[skid]

Its the same ole story--Getting the fake ID required to do illegal transactions is no big deal for terrorists or big time criminals--Its the normal Mom and Pop folks that pay the price in inconvenience and the banking instos that pay the price in extra work and lost profits.
And then of course there is the issue of ''is money laundering really the main goal of the legislation''?
all that extra information collected could be of particular benefit to some organization,corporation,..Government..etc.(flexin g your muscles in the economic international community)

[Snow Leopard]

Keeping an eye on the short term charts for this one - its looking like struggling to get over its 200 MA today, so took the opportunity to lock in some of my profits, 13% gain in a few days, nothing to sniff at. Sitting on the rest to see how the longer term trend plays out.
How you doing Paper Tiger? :D


https://content.markitcdn.com/equityservices/charting/charting/uploadhandler/z02e3100az07267683e9b340de9a907f9b48127762.png

$3,548.53* up at close of play today
*gross realised and unrealised gains.


6719

Best Wishes
Paper Tiger

^The one in Vegas

[RRR]

Nominee account transactions I would have thought. Some are forced sales due to margin calls. Correct me if I am wrong!

[BFG]

I wonder if he was pushed or if he truly jumped. The old "spend more time with my family" line suggests pushed. Punishment for mismanagement of banking relationships? Or something we don't know about.

I hate that wording which puts up a front like that! He's not going to suddenly turn into a stay at home dad/house husband after being a CEO for years. Tell it like it is buddy!

It is very unfortunate as they are directly front footing the banks and encouraging competition in a sector that used to be monopolistic and a huge cash cow for the big banks.

[skid]

This would be a rather bad time to be sitting on a large chunk of foreign currency, waiting for a favorable time to change back.
Ive always used them--not sure if there are any other big players out there in that market.
It will be a shame if we are at the mercy of the big banks.
A perfectly good company getting thrashed because of draconian anti money laundering laws.

[stoploss]

This would be a rather bad time to be sitting on a large chunk of foreign currency, waiting for a favorable time to change back.
Ive always used them--not sure if there are any other big players out there in that market.
It will be a shame if we are at the mercy of the big banks.
A perfectly good company getting thrashed because of draconian anti money laundering laws.

I can vouch for this company http://www.directfx.co.nz

DISC: Have used their services .( not a shareholder)

[skid]

Thanks for the info--ive had a few wins and a few losses(well,lost interest from breaking even) but Im not to involved atm,..but you never know..

(one has to wonder if direct will run into the same problems as OFX)

[ratkin]

This would be a rather bad time to be sitting on a large chunk of foreign currency, waiting for a favorable time to change back.
Ive always used them--not sure if there are any other big players out there in that market.
It will be a shame if we are at the mercy of the big banks.
A perfectly good company getting thrashed because of draconian anti money laundering laws.

This is the problem for OZ Forex, any uncertainty will hit the bottom line, as people will be reluctant to deal with them. Its not like a company making bread where the shoppers could not care less what state the company is in. They need to appear very stable, and losing the CEO and banker is not a good look

[ratkin]

out at 2.57 ended up with a dividend and tiny profit. Dont like bad news, it normally comes in threes

Thats two bits of bad news, when is the third going to be

[Snow Leopard]

Well - survived that still in profit - but it was hard work :eek2:.

Best Wishes
Paper Tiger

[NZSilver]

Surprised you still holding KW - sitting around $2 at the moment, solid downtrend. You must have a feel that fundamentally the business is sound. I've been following but don't like the uncertainty at this point. I would be interested in your thoughts. My brother lives in Aus and uses their service and he said its pretty good. cheers

[RRR]

$2.83 at close today.

Now I use NZ forex to transfer NZD to my AUD foreign currency account. They give better rates than banks and their customer service is way better than banks!

Discl - Invested in OFX

[RRR]

Damn! I have been thinking about topping up but missed the dip..

Take over offer from Western Union for $3.50 - $3.70/share indicative price, cash offer

[RRR]

What a carnage! 40% drop in a single day. Market is overreacting.
2 reasons
1, They have rejected Western Union's takeover (non binding) offer presumably because WU were taking too long to decide. Good decision by OFX.
2, They have issued a profit down grade from 40 million to 35 million. The reason for the downgrade is because of re-branding from OzForex to a more global sounding OFX and which seems to have affected their growth rate.

They are still growing and taking market-share from the big banks. I shall let the dust settle down before investing more again.

Disc- invested

[winner69]

Vicious eh

Punters don't lie disappointments at the moment do they

[Entrep]

Anyone still in this? My average is around $2 and holding on. I am a happy customer of their service and am sure another offer will come through the door sooner or later. SP is all over the show though.

[RRR]

I am still invested, 18% down! I use their service at least 3-4 times a year and save $400 or so (when compared to banks). I am in for the long haul.

[DarkHorse]

Anyone still in this? My average is around $2 and holding on. I am a happy customer of their service and am sure another offer will come through the door sooner or later. SP is all over the show though.
Don't hold but keeping it under consideration. CEO and 4 directors have make reasonably significant purchases over past few months. If all goes to plan, expensed investments in the short term (eg migration to cloud for '80% productivity increase' and marketing) will lead to major revenue and margin increases in 2018, with renewed takeover interest from Western Union a distinct possibility in the meantime.