OCA - Oceania Group - retirement villages

[BlackPeter]

I would like somebody to tell me what is so magical about the 200 day moving average. What about a 250 or 275 day moving average?

The magic thing about the MA200 is that many investors tend to use it. Otherwise it would be quite irrelevant.

If the SP crosses this line one can often monitor how a self-fullfilling prophecy works. Doesn't mean though that it is advisable to ignore the likely stampede, better plan for it ...

However - here is one really good news: MA200 for OCA is currently at 110. 115 is only the MA100;

[couta1]

the break of 1.15 will be bearish Really,who really gives a toss other than those hoping for some dirt cheap shares, a few cents here or there is immaterial.

[BlackPeter]

the break of 1.15 will be bearish

Bull droppings or just a bear trap? BTW - 115 is the MA100 ... what's bearish about a stock sitting well above the MA200?

[winner69]

Bull droppings or just a bear trap? BTW - 115 is the MA100 ... what's bearish about a stock sitting well above the MA200?

On the other hand what’s bullish about a stock sitting below it’s MA50

[BlackPeter]

On the other hand what’s bullish about a stock sitting below it’s MA50

Right - I guess its all a question of perspective ...

[TideMan]

I would like somebody to tell me what is so magical about the 200 day moving average. What about a 250 or 275 day moving average?

And why is it plotted with the last point at the present time?
Shouldn't the whole curve be displaced backwards in time by half the interval? i.e. for 200 day MA, the last point plotted should be present - 100 days.

[dobby41]

And why is it plotted with the last point at the present time?
Shouldn't the whole curve be displaced backwards in time by half the interval? i.e. for 200 day MA, the last point plotted should be present - 100 days.

I would have thought that the point for today would be the average of all the closes for the last 200days.
It's a moving average (MA) so tomorrow will include today and drop off the 1st value used today (a moving 200 day window).

[BlackPeter]

And why is it plotted with the last point at the present time?
Shouldn't the whole curve be displaced backwards in time by half the interval? i.e. for 200 day MA, the last point plotted should be present - 100 days.

I guess we start to move here into the very basics of statistics - nothing to do with OCA. The 200MA is the moving average of the last 200 days - and there is a value for every day with at least 200 earlier data points. Clear like mud?

Here is some basic reading on MA's: https://www.investopedia.com/articles/active-trading/052014/how-use-moving-average-buy-stocks.asp

If you need more - it might be sensibel to find a relevant thread under investment strategies to discuss

[bull....]

http://www.sharechat.co.nz/article/8cdd5dc8/housing-credit-squeeze-to-hit-builders-retailers-and-banks-craigs.html

ryman is craigs preferred stock says headwinds for retirement stocks

[Beagle]

Craigs analyst hasn't done enough work to understand OCA's business model.

[Lewylewylewy]

Maybe there are headwinds, but retirement stocks are the best way to spread a little cash in real estate, if you don't have any diversification there... which is why i kept a small parcel of sum.

To justify my opinion, residential investment is unattractive as the govt has deemed landlords as evil and tenants as underdog angels. More tenant rights, less landlord rights to come, pricing pressure, etc. REITs seem to perform poorly compared to other stocks, possibly due to value coming out in dividends and management fees? Retirement stocks could be viewed as commercial property with a sound business model occupying, with constant demand throughout all stages of the economy. Notably all of the above are effected by property prices.

[Joshuatree]

Ryman has been their proven go to first pick stock for conservative managed portfolios for a loong time . They have a hold on it atm with a 1 year t/p nearly $1 lower.

“Our preferred exposure is Ryman Healthcare which is the industry standard operator with a continuum of care model.”

[Bjauck]

Maybe there are headwinds, but retirement stocks are the best way to spread a little cash in real estate, if you don't have any diversification there... which is why i kept a small parcel of sum.

To justify my opinion, residential investment is unattractive as the govt has deemed landlords as evil and tenants as underdog angels. More tenant rights, less landlord rights to come, pricing pressure, etc..... A sweeping claim. Just because NZ may introduce increased security for good tenants (to a standard currently found in many other OECD nations) is only accepting the fact that many NZ families have been priced out of home ownership yet still require a secure home in which to raise children. It is hardly demonising all Landlords or sanctifying all tenants!

Introducing tax reforms affecting residential land may affect prices more.

However I agree that the retirement stocks are a good way to have exposure to managed residential real estate.

[warren]

Gosh Hello Bjauck---a sensible voice of reason and practical NZ commonsense in yourself has appeared. Wow I am impressed. I lived in Hamburg ---- full tenant rights there to protect German families and give them a secure affordable base to raise their children (the next generation of German citizens). After all the next generation that will run the economy including aged care looking after me, must have precedent over a landlord class. That must be as obvious as night follows day in a sensible society. Any rate, I continue to really like OCA, I like its outstanding performance-- so far. I like its managers and I love the full care independent units that, in desperation, we stumbled across with a very infirm loved one. $1.15 a bargain.

[Joshuatree]

A bargain at $1.15 you mean or for your loved one?

[winner69]

The 2018 accounts show quiet clearly that at the EBIT level and allowing for the 'change in fair value of investment property' that OCA is profitable...

...to the tune of about $10.5M a year.

However normalising for the 'impairment of property, plant & equipment' line indicates a drop of over $5M between 2017 and 2018. Could be a concern but I will be looking at the HY2019 (and beyond) results with interest on that one rather than worrying now.

How much of a price that people are prepared to pay for occupation rights going forward and the correlation between that and NZ housing prices is yet to be determined for OCA.

That is something else to look forward too. :mellow:

That $10.5m ebit isn’t much is it snow leopard. Isn’t that essentially the ebit generated from care (looking after people).

Just shows you whatever some say the real value in this sector is building and selling units

I still struggle to grasp the idea that OCA because of its high weighting to care based activities makes it a more defensive investment during a period of a property slowdown than SUM or RYM .....when it makes stuff all from looking after people

But at times I am rather dim and as some say I don’t always see the big picture

The half year financials could be interesting.

[couta1]

That $10.5m ebit isn’t much is it snow leopard. Isn’t that essentially the ebit generated from care (looking after people).

Just shows you whatever some say the real value in this sector is building and selling units

I still struggle to grasp the idea that OCA because of its high weighting to care based activities makes it a more defensive investment during a period of a property slowdown than SUM or RYM .....when it makes stuff all from looking after people

But at times I am rather dim and as some say I don’t always see the big picture

The half year financials could be interesting. Care is needs based and is NOT affected by a property slowdown, add to that the focus that OCA has on care suites and you get a more defensive business model in the event of a property slowdown. With the average cost of a care suite at around 226k, it would have to be a property armageddon before there would be any entrance hindrance. PS-Even smaller sized OCA facilities with care suites added make good profits otherwise you need scale(80 beds plus) for a normal care centre to run reasonable profits.

[Baa_Baa]

Care is needs based and is NOT affected by a property slowdown, add to that the focus that OCA has on care suites and you get a more defensive business model in the event of a property slowdown. With the average cost of a care suite at around 226k, it would have to be a property armageddon before there would be any entrance hindrance. PS-Even smaller sized OCA facilities with care suites added make good profits otherwise you need scale(80 beds plus) for a normal care centre to run reasonable profits.

Thanks for clearly stating the distinction, it makes sense. Though being listed and as you know the market is ignorant and schizophrenic, won't OCA just be lumped into the basket of all aged care providers when push comes to shove and fall or rise on sector sentiment? I reckon these business model nuances will be overlooked if there was a systemic sector effect. Anyway this is in the long term portfolio for me, so doesn't matter too much what happens to the SP unless it goes bust.

[trader_jackson]

The half year financials could be interesting.

Gotta be better than that dog of a stock ARV...

No worries, everybody says OCA is better so I look forward to seeing OCA smash ARV (who in turn smashed RYM)

[Joshuatree]

Care is needs based and is NOT affected by a property slowdown, add to that the focus that OCA has on care suites and you get a more defensive business model in the event of a property slowdown. With the average cost of a care suite at around 226k, it would have to be a property armageddon before there would be any entrance hindrance. PS-Even smaller sized OCA facilities with care suites added make good profits otherwise you need scale(80 beds plus) for a normal care centre to run reasonable profits.

Hi Couta.We know care facilities are low margin with the govt subsidies leaving slim profits indeed. Are the care suites higher margin and privately funded making more profits, is this the main point of difference to SUM etc?
I did ask SUM CFO Scott Scoular today at a presentation about care facilities today and how important they were to their model.The answer i got wasn't really clear except to agree they are low margin they have ratio of 1 to 5 and not that important for profits,was my interpretation.

Also he suggested house prices need to drop by $150,000 before they impact profits.

An int chart showed the 75 plus age group in NZ climbing fast but peaking 2037-42 with quite drop off thereon.

[couta1]

Hi Couta.We know care facilities are low margin with the govt subsidies leaving slim profits indeed. Are the care suites higher margin and privately funded making more profits, is this the main point of difference to SUM etc?
I did ask SUM CFO Scott Scoular today at a presentation about care facilities today and how important they were to their model.The answer i got wasn't really clear except to agree they are low margin they have ratio of 1 to 5 and not that important for profits,was my interpretation.

Also he suggested house prices need to drop by $150,000 before they impact profits.

An int chart showed the 75 plus age group in NZ climbing fast but peaking 2037-42 with quite drop off thereon. OCA has a 30% DMF on all its units including care suites which is higher than SUM at 25% and RYM lower again at 20% so yes more margin. The stand out of care suites is that any potential care centre resident(Hospital or Resthome level) can purchase a suite instead of going into the main care centre. Service fees are the same and are either paid for by the resident or the Govt depending on their financial situation, either way OCA receives the same amount of money. You can clearly see the advantage of having a whole lot of care suites producing 30% DMFs over a standard care centre hence why even smaller care facilities can be profitable.

[Maverick]

OCA has a 30% DMF on all its units including care suites which is higher than SUM at 25% and RYM lower again at 20% so yes more margin. The stand out of care suites is that any potential care centre resident(Hospital or Resthome level) can purchase a suite instead of going into the main care centre. Service fees are the same and are either paid for by the resident or the Govt depending on their financial situation, either way OCA receives the same amount of money. You can clearly see the advantage of having a whole lot of care suites producing 30% DMFs over a standard care centre hence why even smaller care facilities can be profitable.

Yes yes... but slightly of topic , the average client stays 3 years in a care suite as opposed to 7.5 years for a villa. Yet still netting the same 30% maximum return

So that`s effectively double the return rate over the same 7 years a villa rents for also while allowing for a bit of unoccupancy (the care suites are probably not going to have a waiting list being "needs based") ..but wait there's more! care fees on top of that.
Its a business on top of a business.

[Joshuatree]

OCA has a 30% DMF on all its units including care suites which is higher than SUM at 25% and RYM lower again at 20% so yes more margin. The stand out of care suites is that any potential care centre resident(Hospital or Resthome level) can purchase a suite instead of going into the main care centre. Service fees are the same and are either paid for by the resident or the Govt depending on their financial situation, either way OCA receives the same amount of money. You can clearly see the advantage of having a whole lot of care suites producing 30% DMFs over a standard care centre hence why even smaller care facilities can be profitable.

Great ,thanks for that detail.

[Beagle]

Yes yes... but slightly of topic , the average client stays 3 years in a care suite as opposed to 7.5 years for a villa. Yet still netting the same 30% maximum return

So that`s effectively double the return rate over the same 7 years a villa rents for also while allowing for a bit of unoccupancy (the care suites are probably not going to have a waiting list being "needs based") ..but wait there's more! care fees on top of that.
Its a business on top of a business.

You're on to it mate. Average stay in a care suite from memory from the presentation Earl Gasparich gave to the Auckland brand N.Z. shareholders association is only about 2.5 years. Quite a big difference in the business model's of the various retirement companies isn't there :)

[Yoda]

I was late getting in so at 1.14 i am still in the red.
Maybe time to get a few more, but have 15 % of portfolio here. Thanks for the interesting debate. My day job is hospital , not rest home or retirement , so find these details helpful. Thanks all .

[Turtle2]

What underlying earnings for FY19 is everyone expecting? I'd say around 40% given the doubling in units delivered (which should have solid development margins) and the fact that the 2017 Long Term Incentive Plan requires an underlying earnings per share compound annual growth rate of at least 35% which should be a good estimation of expectations.

[percy]

I was late getting in so at 1.14 i am still in the red.
Maybe time to get a few more, but have 15 % of portfolio here. Thanks for the interesting debate. My day job is hospital , not rest home or retirement , so find these details helpful. Thanks all .

I don't think you were late getting in as the aging population provide ongoing strong tail winds for this sector.
15% of your portfolio means you are "well positioned."

[Beagle]

What underlying earnings for FY19 is everyone expecting? I'd say around 40% given the doubling in units delivered (which should have solid development margins) and the fact that the 2017 Long Term Incentive Plan requires an underlying earnings per share compound annual growth rate of at least 35% which should be a good estimation of expectations.

I am forecasting ~ 11 cps underlying earnings for FY19 up from 8.4 cps. Forward PE at $1.14 is just 10.4.

[Joshuatree]

I don't think you were late getting in as the aging population provide ongoing strong tail winds for this sector.
15% of your portfolio means you are "well positioned."

You would say that ,being early. :t_up:Awaiting a low $1 opp to add in these volatile spastic times.

[Beagle]

I am forecasting ~ 11 cps underlying earnings for FY19 up from 8.4 cps. Forward PE at $1.14 is just 10.4.


You would say that ,being early. :t_up:Awaiting a low $1 opp to add in these volatile spastic times.

I find it difficult to believe you can't see real value at the current price. What underlying eps are your brokers projecting for FY19 ?

[Blue Skies]

2 comments, & correct me if I'm wrong, but last time the SP was this low 114 early Sept, didn't i see several senior directors buying up truckloads of shares which you would have to presume meant they saw it as significantly undervalued at this level.
If several directors with the depth of knowledge they have on OCA's future & the whole sector saw it as undervalued at this level, that seems pretty powerful testimony to strong future growth in earnings & SP & reinforces all the analysis we have seen here by Beagle & others.

[Bjauck]

You're on to it mate. Average stay in a care suite from memory from the presentation Earl Gasparich gave to the Auckland brand N.Z. shareholders association is only about 2.5 years. Quite a big difference in the business model's of the various retirement companies isn't there :) The OCA facility, with which I am familiar from having had a relative as a patient, seemed to have a drive to establish premium care rooms which could be purchased via ORAs. Perhaps a profitable point of difference from other providers?

[Beagle]

The OCA facility, with which I am familiar from having had a relative as a patient, seemed to have a drive to establish premium care rooms which could be purchased via ORAs. Perhaps a profitable point of difference from other providers?

Yes absolutly. Please see attached presentation from OCA earlier this month http://nzx-prod-s7fsd7f98s.s3-website-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/attachments/OCA/326631/290269.pdf
As I've probably mentioned already I think Earl Gasparich makes a very good leader. In my opinion he has the knack of being able to easily communicate with people and has many of the same attributes of Simon Challis former CEO of RYM. In addition I note he's dual qualified with Commerce and Legal degrees, the latter with honor's.

I think he's a man at the very top of his game. A very good leader sets the culture of the whole organisation.

[Maverick]

I am forecasting ~ 11 cps underlying earnings for FY19 up from 8.4 cps. Forward PE at $1.14 is just 10.4.
Yep , sounds pretty right to me Beagle.
My ball park expectations of FY 2019 are as follows
FY2018 profit 52.1 mill
Plus 2% inflation increase on the care side of business +1 mill
Plus margin on new builds +16.1 mill
Plus increased DMF of new stock (most of this won`t be fully realised for several years though- but i figure there will be some increase in DMF fees is warranted from increasing ORA`s done in recent years) +4.3 mill
Total annual profit = $73.6 million =11.7 cps

So a bit more than yours Beagle , but you're probably closer by not including so much unrealised DMF that I`have. :) (+ 4.3 mil equates to 0.7 cps)
At a forward PE of 13 makes the share price then worth $1.52 ( it's no surprise this is 25% higher than the $1.20 it was when I did these workings)
That has been historically about what most retirement stocks have increased by YOY.

[Ggcc]

I did not expect to see these prices again for this stock with everyone’s positive comments. To me these prices are fantastic entry point prices for longterm holders. Patience gets you rewards

[couta1]

I did not expect to see these prices again for this stock with everyone’s positive comments. To me these prices are fantastic entry point prices for longterm holders. Patience gets you rewards Neither did I, just another example of a Schizophrenic market in action, fantastic buying opportunity for those that missed out before because the market is way wrong on this one.PS-If I didn't already have such a large holding I would have line swiped all those being offered up at $1.13.

[winner69]

Neither did I, just another example of a Schizophrenic market in action, fantastic buying opportunity for those that missed out before because the market is way wrong on this one.

End of month squaring up couts

[couta1]

End of month squaring up couts Yeah probably an Insto that bought in at the $1.10 placement offloading a few to square the books.

[Beagle]

I have no money in my ANZ securities account at present. Wish I did as I genuinely believe at the current price this is an outstanding opportunity to build wealth over time.

[percy]

Thought you would have sold by now,as the sp is under the 90 day moving average?...lol..

[Beagle]

This one really does stand a decent chance of doubling in 3 years :)

[percy]

Certainly does.
Watch where Greg Tomlinson invests.

[winner69]

Mcginty on another thread throws out the possibility of OCA joining the NZX50

As OCA needs all the help it can get to boost its share price a nebelous thing like joining an index could do the trick

[Maverick]

Yeah probably an Insto that bought in at the $1.10 placement offloading a few to square the books.
Cheers for the insight Winner and Couta. Instos book squaring does make sense. What a fascinating industry this all is.So Monday should be business as usual ? Back to 1.15 on open then upwards and onwards towards $1.30 late January after their interim report.
No. I'm not ramping, don't really mind where the price goes as long as the the business is progressing reasonably on track, I'm definitely here for the long haul.

[Beagle]

Cheers for the insight Winner and Couta. Instos book squaring does make sense. What a fascinating industry this all is.So Monday should be business as usual ? Back to 1.15 on open then upwards and onwards towards $1.30 late January after their interim report.
No. I'm not ramping, don't really mind where the price goes as long as the the business is progressing reasonably on track, I'm definitely here for the long haul.

Yeap, this one is definitely a long term keeper. Compelling fundamental's and we are being paid very well, (I am forecasting at least a 5% gross dividend yield this year, growing from there going forward) while we enjoy the strong growth ahead. I don't recall in my decades of investing too many companies with such strong growth potential trading on such compelling fundamentals and with such an excellent reputation for looking after their customers. Some very nice and committed people work there too. Classic win win all round. Disc: Remains my #1 highest conviction listed investment position and likely to remain so for a very long time.

[Joshuatree]

Yes im in for the long haul hopefully too. I did a rare thing , expressed an opinion to a friend to buy his FIRST healthcare/retirement prop stock in OCA ( but only because he asked the question), when MAQ sold off. A timely and great addition to his large mainly div based NZ portfolio. I will look to topping up at lower prices but not at current price, want to keep my average entry as low as possible .

[Beagle]

Worth noting that the Macquarie placement of approx. 3 months ago was extremely well supported by institutions and other investors at $1.10. Since then there's been no dividends but 3 months worth of accrued earnings at about ~ 1 cent a month. The current price in my opinion, on an intrinsic basis is almost exactly as compelling as $1.10 was 3 months ago.

[Joshuatree]

I think if kiwi investors have no exposure to this sector maybe start thinking about averaging in one or more of them over the next year or so.


FWIW, my mindset is that Im probably overexposed in the sector as I have spread my exposure to Australia to AOG which is currently reviewing how to improve the heavily discounted s/p. Multiple potential buyers are running the ruler over it atm. More of a swing trade as opposed to investment ,with more risk ,eg prop bubble higher there and poss govt regulatory changes from the royal commission .

[Bjauck]

...with more risk ,eg prop bubble higher there and poss govt regulatory changes from the royal commission . Not much in it.....NZ has the more overvalued houses according to https://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/news/article.cfm?c_id=3&objectid=12125648

Also NZ is the fifth most at risk housing market in the OECD for a correction. (Australia is the second most at risk and is already in a correction).

[Joshuatree]

Cheers Bj for that one.Some areas of Aus are way overvalued and some aren't yet, like Queensland is what ive been reading. Royal Commission final report 2020. Not a recco DYOR.

[warren]

Not much in it.....NZ has the more overvalued houses according to https://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/news/article.cfm?c_id=3&objectid=12125648

Also NZ is the fifth most at risk housing market in the OECD for a correction. (Australia is the second most at risk and is already in a correction).


Umm Agree Bjauck.

NZ housing affordability is 6.3 times higher than the median household income while in Auckland its 8.8 times higher compared to approx 3 times higher that existed from 1957 --1986 in NZ.
source-- stuff news --economics video.

Huge rates of inward migration (nearly all to AK) combined with glorious tax free, unfair investment opportunity on rising house and especially land prices have spelt a disaster for our Children in our own nation.
I sleep even easier tonight having sold all real estate and committed to OCA and its care associated large income. Beautiful , almost guaranteed positive returns as the tidal wave of elderly care needs bears down upon us. Carry on Earl and Liz as top organisations always need top people and, so far, I like your efforts very very much.

[Bjauck]

.....have spelt a disaster for our Children in our own nation.
I sleep even easier tonight having sold all real estate and committed to OCA and its care associated large income. Beautiful , almost guaranteed positive returns as the tidal wave of elderly care needs bears down upon us. Carry on Earl and Liz as top organisations always need top people and, so far, I like your efforts very very much. You have surfed the gilded crest of the property wave with your real estate and are now doing the same on the silver tsunami of demand for Oceania's villages and services!

It is not so disastrous for the heirs who stand to inherit the wealth of those who have built up equity on the back of the past decades of real estate price increases! Those children have often been able to get the helping hand needed to buy their first homes in our expensive country. A landed NZ aristocracy has been born.

[percy]

You have surfed the gilded crest of the property wave with your real estate and are now doing the same on the silver tsunami of demand for Oceania's villages and services!

It is not so disastrous for the heirs who stand to inherit the wealth of those who have built up equity on the back of the past decades of real estate price increases! Those children have often been able to get the helping hand needed to buy their first homes in our expensive country. A landed NZ aristocracy has been born.

Bank of Mum and Dad is the fastest growing bank in NZ.Non recourse loans the specialty..lol.

[macduffy]

Let's not get over the top here. The facts remain: NZ is not the only country where housing has become overly expensive - it's a world-wide condition, at least in the Western world ; Far from being a "landed aristocracy", more housing is still owner-occupied than rented.

[BlackPeter]

Let's not get over the top here. The facts remain: NZ is not the only country where housing has become overly expensive - it's a world-wide condition, at least in the Western world ; Far from being a "landed aristocracy", more housing is still owner-occupied than rented.

Well said. Actually NZ is in terms of housing affordability much closer to the affordable end if you look at this comparison:

https://www.numbeo.com/property-investment/rankings_by_country.jsp

In this comparison sits NZ on place 75 under the countries in the world with a house price to average income of 8.24, while number 1 (Venezuela) has the most unaffordable houses (compared to the average income - sitting at nearly 155). Hongkong is number 2 (with 47) and China number 3 (with 27 annual incomes required to buy an average house).

And yes, I know - these high ratios obviously indicate that the average income in these countries is quite low ... but still ...

NZ is sitting comfortably between Germany (8.48) and Norway (8.18) ... and better (more affordable) than the UK (with 8.89), but I am sure we are whinging much more about the expensive houses than any other country in the world. Maybe we could make a number 1 in the famous "whinge about expensive houses" hitlist.

Admittedly - in the US houses are cheaper for an average income (3.44 annual incomes for an average house), but I am sure that this is only because Trumps rich friends are distorting the average income ;);

[Brain]

These house price comparisons have their problems. There is no allowance made for what you get for the money you pay. Compare Spending 1.5M$ in Auckland and the same amount in any other city eg Hong Kong London and New York and see what you get. I live in Auckland and think that it is great. There is no way I would live any where else. Auckland is the bees knees. A lot of other people apparently feel the same and that is why the prices are high.

[Bjauck]

...

NZ is sitting comfortably between Germany (8.48) and Norway (8.18) ... and better (more affordable) than the UK (with 8.89), but I am sure we are whinging much more about the expensive houses than any other country in the world. Maybe we could make a number 1 in the famous "whinge about expensive houses....
International inaffordability should also be looked at in context....

What is the desirability of owning compared with renting? If you cannot afford a home to buy what is the rental market like and how secure is renting for good tenants?

Is owning your home and investment property the best way to build up a nest egg as far as after tax return is concerned ( NZ has no general CGT or estate taxes - which other countries are in that position?)

At least with their ORAs the occupants of Oceania's units have a measure of protection for their occupancy not available under NZ tenancy.

[bull....]

just as we thought pumped up by the buyers at the 1.10 allocation to sell into. now its falling back to reality

[minimoke]

just as we thought pumped up by the buyers at the 1.10 allocation to sell into. now its falling back to realityWe have an ebbing DOW tide which tends to drop all boats.

[couta1]

just as we thought pumped up by the buyers at the 1.10 allocation to sell into. now its falling back to reality Can you please not put up silly posts on a stock you have little understanding of.PS-Current price is seriously undervalued.

[bull....]

Can you please not put up silly posts on a stock you have little understanding of.PS-Current price is seriously undervalued.

the market knows more than you couta and it says the price is too high

[Blue Skies]

At these bargain levels v happy to add more to my holding. From memory, only about 8 weeks away from interim dividend.

[couta1]

the market knows more than you couta and it says the price is too high Actually in this case your wrong, the market doesn't know more than me.Lol

[percy]

the market knows more than you couta and it says the price is too high

Those who think the market always correctly prices a stock are many.
Those who realise the market often/usually misprices a stock, make a lot of money, thanks to them.

[bull....]

Actually in this case your wrong, the market doesn't know more than me.Lol

lets see what happens when they do the next placement , if the price goes up afterwards my theory is right

[couta1]

lets see what happens when they do the next placement , if the price goes up afterwards my theory is right Of course the price will go up after the next placement but it will be at a higher price than the current SP which you say is too high.

[McGinty]

Actually in this case your wrong, the market doesn't know more than me.Lol

Reminds me of that old joke.....

Q: How do you know when a jet pilot enters the room?

A: He'll tell you

Hope you're not a pilot in your spare time there Couta :D

[couta1]

Reminds me of that old joke.....

Q: How do you know when a jet pilot enters the room?

A: He'll tell you

Hope you're not a pilot in your spare time there Couta :D I kinda felt embarrassed about making that statement but sometimes you just have to be bold, especially when your dealing with a lot of bull.

[bull....]

I kinda felt embarrassed about making that statement but sometimes you just have to be bold, especially when your dealing with a lot of bull.

lol lack of oxygen from flying to high eh

[Bjauck]

Let's not get over the top here. The facts remain: NZ is not the only country where housing has become overly expensive - it's a world-wide condition, at least in the Western world ; Far from being a "landed aristocracy", more housing is still owner-occupied than rented. True I should have said a landed aristocracy is in the process of being born.

One also needs to look at international comparisons in relation to the alternatives to home ownership (how attractive is renting as an alternative and what other equally as attractive alternative investment opportunities exist)

Home ownership is dropping in NZ and in Auckland may already have dropped to below 50% of households. Also not all owner-occupiers without additional investment property can help the next generation into home ownership either.

It would benefit OCA in the long term for home ownership to remain as widespread as possible so that the potential market for their villages remains is maximised.

[warren]

True I should have said a landed aristocracy is in the process of being born.

It would benefit OCA in the long term for home ownership to remain as widespread as possible so that the potential market for their villages remains is maximised.

AGREE 100% and AGREE 100% with Mr Baracouta re how value sure can exist within Mr Market.
OCA holding incredibly well against the headlong retreat. What a beauty she is!--so far.

[Maverick]

Actually in this case your wrong, the market doesn't know more than me.Lol
...."that's pretty arrogant considering the company your`e in....... I like that in a fighter pilot"... top gun

Totally agree with you Couta, tha market is wrong on this one and you do know more.

[Ggcc]

Someone seems desperate to sell out

[Joshuatree]

Some tiny tunnel vision going on here.You have to include the macro in ones thinking. In the volatility, uncertainty, and declining equities, globally all companies will be affected. i wait patiently to add in the lower $1 and a few cents zone., or even farther .

[couta1]

Someone seems desperate to sell out In the current market volatility there will always be somebody keen to sell no matter which stock your talking about.

[fish]

Some tiny tunnel vision going on here.You have to include the macro in ones thinking. In the volatility, uncertainty, and declining equities, globally all companies will be affected. i wait patiently to add in the lower $1 and a few cents zone., or even farther .

I view it differently and did some frantic trades near close today to enable me to buy more.
Fundamentals have not changed for Oceania-people will continue to get old,downsize and buy into oceania homes .I cannot see a global downturn affecting Oceania.
I sold a company I thought had peaked and could be affected-or at least had increased risk at their current price.

[petty]

Niggly question here but anyone with a view of the chances of OCA initiating a DRP?

[Sgt Pepper]

Niggly question here but anyone with a view of the chances of OCA initiating a DRP?

One note of caution with the retirement sector from someone who works in the health service.
As part of this years settlement of the DHBs Nurses MECA they agreed to recruit an additional 500 Registered Nurses into the DHBs. The retirement sector already struggles with recruitment and retention of Registered Nurses. The salary diiferential between the two is significant, the Rymans, OCA, Summersets will have no choice but to compete.Many young Registered Nurses, especially from overseas, have no desire to remain in the sector. Careers are on hold until they get a better paid position in the DHBs. Profits will erode. Aged care already is overly dependent on non resident workers on work visas, over 6000 staff.
As shareholders we need to ensure that Boards can demonstrate a coherent strategy to address this issue, otherwise the days of increasing dividends being delivered to happy shareholders will be seriously at ris.k

[macduffy]

Half year results will be announced on 25 Jan. Nothing to see here until then.

https://www.nzx.com/announcements/328133

[bull....]

One note of caution with the retirement sector from someone who works in the health service.
As part of this years settlement of the DHBs Nurses MECA they agreed to recruit an additional 500 Registered Nurses into the DHBs. The retirement sector already struggles with recruitment and retention of Registered Nurses. The salary diiferential between the two is significant, the Rymans, OCA, Summersets will have no choice but to compete.Many young Registered Nurses, especially from overseas, have no desire to remain in the sector. Careers are on hold until they get a better paid position in the DHBs. Profits will erode. Aged care already is overly dependent on non resident workers on work visas, over 6000 staff.
As shareholders we need to ensure that Boards can demonstrate a coherent strategy to address this issue, otherwise the days of increasing dividends being delivered to happy shareholders will be seriously at ris.k

very valid points , also the royal commission into retirement operators in aus may also throw up some stuff which gets adopted here and dont forget the slowing property market

[Beagle]

One note of caution with the retirement sector from someone who works in the health service.
As part of this years settlement of the DHBs Nurses MECA they agreed to recruit an additional 500 Registered Nurses into the DHBs. The retirement sector already struggles with recruitment and retention of Registered Nurses. The salary diiferential between the two is significant, the Rymans, OCA, Summersets will have no choice but to compete.Many young Registered Nurses, especially from overseas, have no desire to remain in the sector. Careers are on hold until they get a better paid position in the DHBs. Profits will erode. Aged care already is overly dependent on non resident workers on work visas, over 6000 staff.
As shareholders we need to ensure that Boards can demonstrate a coherent strategy to address this issue, otherwise the days of increasing dividends being delivered to happy shareholders will be seriously at ris.k

I spoke with Earl Gasparich after the Auckland shareholders association presentation in September about this issue. Yes its an issue retaining Nurses and paying them a competitive wage to stay with OCA. Mitigating factors. I know industry the representative body has been on to the Govt about the need for pay revision for the retirement sector for Nurses and I am not sure if they will get any interim relief this year but certainly in next years funding round providers will get parity allowance within their funding model to enable pay parity with nurses in DHB's on a roughly cost neutral basis to retirement village operators. You're painting a picture that this is an ongoing systemic issue with will affect profitability forever and a day going forward which I think is materially overstating this challange.

[couta1]

Yes the above situation will change within a year, there's a lot of work going on behind the scenes as we speak to rectify this anomaly.

[fish]

I wonder if those actually pronouncing big increases in costs for oceania wage increases to registered nurses have actually worked out the costs.
It is likely they only employ the minimum to meet DHB requirements.
Most rest home "nurses" will be care workers rather than registered nurses and so I suspect the impact will be minimal and recovered through higher chargers in dependent care/dementia units

[Beagle]

I wonder if those actually pronouncing big increases in costs for oceania wage increases to registered nurses have actually worked out the costs.
It is likely they only employ the minimum to meet DHB requirements.
Most rest home "nurses" will be care workers rather than registered nurses and so I suspect the impact will be minimal and recovered through higher chargers in dependent care/dementia units

P.S. to my above comment. Earl did reassure me that they had some headroom within the scope of their existing DHB funding model to cope with this challenge. I agree that this is not as big as some people are making it out to be.

[Lewylewylewy]

Rest homes still need nurses as well as carers. The nurse pay its less to start with. Nurses typically only go to villages if they can't get a job in a hospital. Hospital jobs are seen as a career ladder job, villages are seen as a career ender.

[Beagle]

Rest homes still need nurses as well as carers. The nurse pay its less to start with. Nurses typically only go to villages if they can't get a job in a hospital. Hospital jobs are seen as a career ladder job, villages are seen as a career ender. Many have gone on to be successful village managers, some making $100K+ (I know one that's followed that career path and she's an exceptional village manager)

[dobby41]

Many have gone on to be successful village managers, some making $100K+ (I know one that's followed that career path and she's an exceptional village manager)

There are always exceptions.

[Beagle]

There are always exceptions.

More often than you would think. Its a care industry. Highly skilled nurses with a good brain for administration often make good village managers.

[couta1]

More often than you would think. Its a care industry. Highly skilled nurses with a good brain for administration often make good village managers. Yes and a good nurse manager is a far greater asset to the company than a business wizz manager because the latter have no clinical expertise and can't identify with the whole care side of things in the same way the former can.

[minimoke]

I would have thought the private sector aged care industry would be a very good career option. Who would want to work for a DHB, chock full of bureaucracy and over-emphasis on a certain groups special needs. Its no wonder wages in that sector have to go up - you'd have to pay people well to compensate for all the bullsh1t. In aged care it seems to me you are much closer to the person you are caring for, more influence in decision making and you get to see a whole process through.

[Ggcc]

Yes and a good nurse manager is a far greater asset to the company than a business wizz manager because the latter have no clinical expertise and can't identify with the whole care side of things in the same way the former can.
Definitely agree. I have seen many businesses fail due to a business wizzes focused on the bottom line, with no real idea of how the business is run. This is one business that needs positive staff treating residents with respect and it will flow through to the residents and their families, which in turn ends up with a healthy bottom line.

[Beagle]

Yes and a good nurse manager is a far greater asset to the company than a business wizz manager because the latter have no clinical expertise and can't identify with the whole care side of things in the same way the former can.


I would have thought the private sector aged care industry would be a very good career option. Who would want to work for a DHB, chock full of bureaucracy and over-emphasis on a certain groups special needs. Its no wonder wages in that sector have to go up - you'd have to pay people well to compensate for all the bullsh1t. In aged care it seems to me you are much closer to the person you are caring for, more influence in decision making and you get to see a whole process through.

+1, I couldn't agree more.

[limmy]

At $1.11, it's below the $1.14 price offered in the recent off load
How low will it go ?

[couta1]

At $1.11, it's below the $1.14 price offered in the recent off load
How low will it go ? You mean the $1.10 offload, good target I guess but the market isn't rational so could go lower.

[Joshuatree]

I view it differently and did some frantic trades near close today to enable me to buy more.
Fundamentals have not changed for Oceania-people will continue to get old,downsize and buy into oceania homes .I cannot see a global downturn affecting Oceania.
I sold a company I thought had peaked and could be affected-or at least had increased risk at their current price.

Desiderata Poem: Go Placidly Amid the Noise. Max Ehrmann.https://www.noisehelp.com/desiderata-poem.html (https://www.google.com/url?sa=t&rct=j&q=&esrc=s&source=web&cd=1&ved=2ahUKEwj8y4fWppbfAhXBEHIKHS3JDewQFjAAegQICRAB&url=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.noisehelp.com%2Fdesiderata-poem.html&usg=AOvVaw0i_MXvTyDp_Yr7bT5V9Y0v)

[winner69]

Desiderata Poem: Go Placidly Amid the Noise. Max Ehrmann.https://www.noisehelp.com/desiderata-poem.html (https://www.google.com/url?sa=t&rct=j&q=&esrc=s&source=web&cd=1&ved=2ahUKEwj8y4fWppbfAhXBEHIKHS3JDewQFjAAegQICRAB&url=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.noisehelp.com%2Fdesiderata-poem.html&usg=AOvVaw0i_MXvTyDp_Yr7bT5V9Y0v)

JT ...is that your new way of life?

If so I look forward to following the reformed JT on this forum.

[Joshuatree]

Not me mate ,a hint to fish to never be frantic when dealing in shares;)

[Ggcc]

Getting cheaper and cheaper. Goodness I never would have thought to see these prices. Macquarie won’t be offloading in a hurry at this point one would think. We should see prices rise after their results later this month

[couta1]

Getting cheaper and cheaper. Goodness I never would have thought to see these prices. Macquarie won’t be offloading in a hurry at this point one would think. No way, I'm picking another offload by them once it gets into the $1.30ies.

[winner69]

Clearly below both MA50 and MA100 and a Death Cross possible in day or two and price back to where it was last July

In spite of the enthusiasm and hype the chart tells another story and its not good

[couta1]

Clearly below both MA50 and MA100 and a Death Cross possible in day or two and price back to where it was last July

In spite of the enthusiasm and hype the chart tells another story and its not good No worries winner, this is a true and classic 5-10 year hold stock if there ever was one, as hard as it is to watch the SP drop due to the current macro environment it's really just noise for long termers.PS- My wife told me I'm not allowed to sell any of these for at least 5 yrs, I ignored that advice 5 years ago with RYM and SUM, better listen this time.

[Baa_Baa]

Clearly below both MA50 and MA100 and a Death Cross possible in day or two and price back to where it was last July

In spite of the enthusiasm and hype the chart tells another story and its not good

SP is below 50/100 DMA, correct, has been for a couple of weeks. No 'death cross' in sight though, not sure what you're looking at, at least not for the typical 50/200 MA cross.

[winner69]

SP is below 50/100 DMA, correct, has been for a couple of weeks. No 'death cross' in sight though, not sure what you're looking at, at least not for the typical 50/200 MA cross.

my bad baabaa ....I was looking at the 50/100 cross coming up

Even Black Peter will tell me off for that

[Baa_Baa]

my bad baabaa ....I was looking at the 50/100 cross coming up

Even Black Peter will tell me off for that

No worries, more concerning imho was the drop a few days ago below the long term (May 2017) steep rising trendline and whether it holds at current horizontal support (multiples) July 2018, or drops lower which would take it down through the current SP at 200MA $1.11 and below that the 200EMA $1.09 comes into play.

If it did breakdown, I'd see that as a bargain and patiently wait for it to settle, then when it reverses load-up for the long haul as Couta et al keep reminding us.

[Leftfield]

No worries, ......(if).. it holds at current horizontal support (multiples) July 2018, or drops lower which would take it down through the current SP at 200MA $1.11 and below that the 200EMA $1.09 comes into play.

If it did breakdown, I'd see that as a bargain and patiently wait for it to settle, then when it reverses load-up for the long haul as Couta et al keep reminding us.

That's pretty much my thinking too.....although I've already acquired a few, there is plenty of room for more at 'sale prices'. :t_up:

[value_investor]

Not really a fan of following charts for the short term but I appreciate value. A few cents here or there won't be talked about in 5 years time. I'll keep accumulating more as this price continues to trickle downwards. At a conservative 6c dividend in 2019, I think that its a awesome buy right now for dividends alone, but given the long term potential there's alot to like.

[oldtech]

No worries winner, this is a true and classic 5-10 year hold stock if there ever was one, as hard as it is to watch the SP drop due to the current macro environment it's really just noise for long termers.PS- My wife told me I'm not allowed to sell any of these for at least 5 yrs, I ignored that advice 5 years ago with RYM and SUM, better listen this time.

Wise words. I first bought these at $1.00 in October last year, and sold them in April when they seemed to me to just be stagnating. Needless to say I have regretted that ever since! Bought back in and now keeping itchy fingers well away from the trigger on this one.

[bull....]

going down as forecasted by the charts and mentioned on here . waiting for the next offload by maquarie at 1.08 or is it 1

[BlackPeter]

Clearly below both MA50 and MA100 and a Death Cross possible in day or two and price back to where it was last July

In spite of the enthusiasm and hype the chart tells another story and its not good

Hmm - maybe you should ask Santa Claus for some new pair of glasses. Where would you see this "Cross of Death" coming in the next couple of days?

10196

Cross of Death is when the MA50 (the green line above) crosses the MA200 (the red line above). Still some way to go - isn't it? SP didn't even dip through the MA200 yet, which would be the first prerequisit to (potentially) get a cross of death.

[bull....]

http://www.sharechat.co.nz/article/206303fc/ryman-healthcare-service-provider-or-property-play.html

ryman is the best but most are overvalued

[BlackPeter]

http://www.sharechat.co.nz/article/206303fc/ryman-healthcare-service-provider-or-property-play.html

ryman is the best but most are overvalued

Interesting - where was this mentioned in the article?

[Maverick]

http://www.sharechat.co.nz/article/206303fc/ryman-healthcare-service-provider-or-property-play.html

ryman is the best but most are overvalued
Agreed but when looking for a good buy I`m looking for "undervalued".

[bull....]

Interesting - where was this mentioned in the article?

bp did you forget to put your glasses on

they are copying rymans model
they have the best auditing ete etc but there all overpriced

[Beagle]

I am forecasting around 6 cps in dividends this year, (about 5.4% yield) and with rapid growth in the years ahead, (along with some tax to be paid which should see dividends in the medium term future being at least partially imputed) this is shaping up as a very good long term dividend yield hold. Strong demographic tailwinds, compelling metrics, excellent management. My #1 pick for 2019. Disc: Already my #1 investment position but I am watching closely for the right time to add more.

[couta1]

bp did you forget to put your glasses on

they are copying rymans model
they have the best auditing ete etc but there all overpriced OCA overpriced, typical bull**** from the bull. OCA are not copying Rymans model to the same extent as SUM others.

[Beagle]

bp did you forget to put your glasses on

they are copying rymans model
they have the best auditing ete etc but there all overpriced

People might take you more seriously if you knew how to spell they're.

[bull....]

OCA overpriced, typical bull**** from the bull. OCA are not copying Rymans model to the same extent as SUM others.

i said it was overpriced at 1.18 and now its 1.11 and going lower probably so i guess i was right and sum others on here saying its the buy of the century were wrong. thats how the market works some are right and some are wrong.

[bull....]

People might take you more seriously if you knew how to spell they're.


market dont care if you can spell , only that your right

[BlackPeter]

bp did you forget to put your glasses on

they are copying rymans model
they have the best auditing ete etc but there all overpriced

You could read into this article that some analysts think that Ryman is overpriced and actually - I might agree with that.
You could as well read into it that they think that Ryman offers a better solution for the Australian market than some Australian providers. May or may not be true - I guess this is something the Australian market needs to decide. They do compare as well Ryman with Summerset based on percentage of care beds ... and it appears that they think more care beds are good (may or may not be true - again, while I do see the point, the jury is still out).

However - I didn't read anywhere that they think the other retirement providers are overvalued. But I do realise that this is what you think, so maybe it was your confirmation bias helping you to spot the all important hint? Sorry that my glasses use my own bias, not yours :p;

Maybe we should clarify as well what you mean with overvalued? They didn't say that. Do you mean that the shareprice is currently higher than it is likely to be at the end of the bear if we assume this is one? This might well be true, but they didn't talk about the bear - and while the bottom price at the end of a bear market might well be a bargain, I would not define it as "true value".

Personally I think that all the big retirement villages in NZ are good long term investments, but I see Ryman much closer to real value (and can understand that some people see it as overvalued) than its competitors. But again, if you only see the SP at the end of the next bear cycle as real value, than you well might be right about all of them ... but the same would be true for all other stock.

[couta1]

i said it was overpriced at 1.18 and now its 1.11 and going lower probably so i guess i was right and sum others on here saying its the buy of the century were wrong. thats how the market works some are right and some are wrong. The market is often wrong, in the short term I trust it about as much as a bull in a China shop.PS-It was a great buy at $1.18 and even better at $1.11.

[dobby41]

People might take you more seriously if you knew how to spell they're.
Are we policing spelling and grammar now?

[Beagle]

market dont care if you can spell , only that your right
You're probably right in that respect. Please fill your boots and short some more at $1.11 as I am on the bid for a small top up and more than happy to accommodate you.

[davflaws]

Are we policing spelling and grammar now?
No we ain't - and we are taking a few deep breaths and almost magically - we are finding ourselves feeling more tolerant and generally nicer - less inclined to be hard on ourselves and each other.

[winner69]

The market is often wrong, in the short term I trust it about as much as a bull in a China shop.PS-It was a great buy at $1.18 and even better at $1.11.

Neighbours bowling club mates thought it was a great buy at 121 but now don’t think it was so great

Along with their growing losses on some of Turners they didn’t sell they think the market is against them. Not been a good month or so for them

[BlackPeter]

Neighbours bowling club mates thought it was a great buy at 121 but now don’t think it was so great

Along with their growing losses on some of Turners they didn’t sell they think the market is against them. Not been a good month or so for them

Lets be fair ... market was not nice to anybody the last month, though - my bonds and my property funds did sort of o.k. - ish ;);

Maybe your neighbours bowling club mates should ask themselves whether the sharemarket is the right investment vehicle for them? I guess there is always the good old savings account ... better to gain 2% instead of loosing 20%!

[winner69]

Lets be fair ... market was not nice to anybody the last month, though - my bonds and my property funds did sort of o.k. - ish ;);

Maybe your neighbours bowling club mates should ask themselves whether the sharemarket is the right investment vehicle for them? I guess there is always the good old savings account ... better to gain 2% instead of loosing 20%!

That’s the sad part ..... term deposit money chasing divies with a higher yield divies and surefire capital gains. I keep telling them there’s no free lunch but the herd says it fine no worries.

Like the finance companies going broke and costing (older) investors billions of dollars I reckon billions will also be lost when this new way of making money doesn’t work out. Many punters out there doing it and they just don’t understand the risks.

[macduffy]

Winner, you'd better tell the neighbour's bowling club mates that the Oceania game is a bit longer than a season or two - but I guess they know that now!

[Joshuatree]

Neighbours bowling club mates thought it was a great buy at 121 but now don’t think it was so great

Along with their growing losses on some of Turners they didn’t sell they think the market is against them. Not been a good month or so for them

Off market trade with them? man talk about gullibility.

[Blue Skies]

That’s the sad part ..... term deposit money chasing divies with a higher yield divies and surefire capital gains. I keep telling them there’s no free lunch but the herd says it fine no worries.

Like the finance companies going broke and costing (older) investors billions of dollars I reckon billions will also be lost when this new way of making money doesn’t work out. Many punters out there doing it and they just don’t understand the risks.


With the greatest respect Winner, conflating investing in those particular reckless flimsy Finance companies, with investing in well run award winning organisations in the retirement sector (this is the OCA thread) with huge property & intellectual assets, exponentially increasing demand, sound financial oversight, etc etc is a wee bit of a stretch!

[Maverick]

Someone is up to the usual tricks of holding the price down. Chunky sellers (no doubt the same entity) with 2 blocks of sells on at $1.13 and $1.14 in the standard 50K parcels. Seen this movie many times now.

As Winner would say ..."no worries."... It will all work its way out once they have achieved whatever it is they are after (next MAQ sell unload?). It's too easy for them in the pre Christmas low turnover. Just wish I had more dry power for these and HLG @ $4.10.

[bull....]

not many buyers left for such a great company?

[Ggcc]

Who is selling 282,000 shares come on fess up? This is a good price and if I had the funds available I would consider them, but the price has been heading south for a bit now, so I will be waiting patiently on the sidelines for now.

[BlackPeter]

Who is selling 282,000 shares come on fess up? This is a good price and if I had the funds available I would consider them, but the price has been heading south for a bit now, so I will be waiting patiently on the sidelines for now.

It is certainly not me. But maybe somebody who bought them at 1.10 as a one way ticket and now getting cold feet?

[couta1]

not many buyers left for such a great company? And the purpose of your post is other than to stir up unrest?

[Ggcc]

And the purpose of your post is other than to stir up unrest?
Dont even bother about working yourself up with bulls opinion, if you are a long term holder. He/she looks at shares in a different way than the way we do. Just let bull have his rant. We all know this share is a goldmine in the future and this could be the bottom.

[couta1]

Dont even bother about working yourself up with bulls opinion, if you are a long term holder. He/she looks at shares in a different way than the way we do. Just let bull have his rant. We all know this share is a goldmine in the future and this could be the bottom. Yeah your right, ranting without knowledge means nothing.

[Baa_Baa]

Yeah your right, ranting without knowledge means nothing.

He is experienced and knows how to make money on the way up and the way down, picking the inflection points and acting on them, for a trader that's knowledge. Other traders welcome his observations. Leave him be, all insights and opinions welcomed imho. We all have differing approaches to the market.

[Baa_Baa]

Interesting to have such a tight 2 cent spread on the support range between $1.11 and $1.09, so encouraging that there was a probe into the range and recovery back to the now 200EMA.

[couta1]

He is experienced and knows how to make money on the way up and the way down, picking the inflection points and acting on them, for a trader that's knowledge. Other traders welcome his observations. Leave him be, all insights and opinions welcomed imho. We all have differing approaches to the market. I should have clarified, I mean knowledge of the retirement sector and judging by his posts on this thread I know that to be true.

[bull....]

And the purpose of your post is other than to stir up unrest?

just putting it out there good debate makes for more informed decisions , anyway shouldnt be so sensitive i dont get upset when you say spark way overvalued

[tuaman]

And the purpose of your post is other than to stir up unrest?
Just ignore this kind of bull****. He is just a flat earth theorist who wants to attend science forum. I am very appreciate your input couta1:):t_up:

[Joshuatree]

I value for and against opinions and differing opinions especially from non holders without the investment BIAS that holders can have; including T/A sharing .
Thanks to all ,keep posting.And if we remember that some people could act on what others say and lose money on that opinion ,advice, a sobering thought to anyone with morals. I also dont believe anyone on here is a qualified trained professional research analyst who can offer advice to would be buyers and sellers so it can be dangerous waters morally crossing that line.

Have a great festive season and a wealth of health while we have it!. I intend to open my bottle of Piper-Heidsieck champagne tonite a gift from PIE Funds albeit a 375ml one to match my liver efficiency, cheers:t_up:

[peat]

I also dont believe anyone on here is a qualified trained professional research analyst


Surely not. I thought most people on here were qualified based on their strong confident views.

[Joshuatree]

U:t_up:p yours selectively too peat cheers

[minimoke]

I also dont believe anyone on here is a qualified trained professional research analyst who can offer advice to would be buyers and sellers so it can be dangerous waters morally crossing that line.

If I wanted that, I'd be signed up with Forsyth Barr

[bull....]

breaking down i have support at 1.08 then 98 - 1

[Leftfield]

breaking down i have support at 1.08 then 98 - 1

What is your supporting evidence for this claim? (If not supported this post is just 'noise')

[bull....]

What is your supporting evidence for this claim? (If not supported this post is just 'noise')

my chart analysis based on past price activity. i take it you do not follow charting?

supports are areas where prices have found support previous it does not mean they going there it just means if price gets there buyers may appear

[Leftfield]

my chart analysis based on past price activity. i take it you do not follow charting?

supports are areas where prices have found support previous it does not mean they going there it just means if price gets there buyers may appear

Thanks for clarifying. Yes I do use TA......and I am also watching the daily 'depth' signals...... that is why I was puzzled by your 'breaking down' statement because at the time of your posting I saw no 'price activity' evidence of your claim (and still don't.)

FWIW - I did not rush into OCA when some here claimed it good value at $1.20. I saw downside 'support' at about $1.10 and have been buying at around this level. Will the SP go much lower? Only time will tell.

[bull....]

Thanks for clarifying. Yes I do use TA......and I am also watching the daily 'depth' signals...... that is why I was puzzled by your 'breaking down' statement because at the time of your posting I saw no 'price activity' evidence of your claim (and still don't.)

FWIW - I did not rush into OCA when some here claimed it good value at $1.20. I saw downside 'support' at about $1.10 and have been buying at around this level. Will the SP go much lower? Only time will tell.

depth signals can be mis leading in nz as so much trade is off - market.

glad you didnt fall for the hype on here around those elevated levels pumped up by the people who took the placement to offload into ( my theory anyway )

i dont see anything in the charts to suggest 1.10 is a good buying area , but i could be wrong in hindsight.

1.08 is also a bottom in the ascending channel from when it first listed was also a pivot point in early 2018

[bull....]

breaking down comment is in reference to overall picture not to a point in time. break down occurred as i said on this thread was if 1.15 didnt hold.

[couta1]

As I believe the SP will be around $2.50 in 3 yrs, even a 10c range doesn't matter if your in for the Long haul, I mean it's more important what you sell for eventually.

[BlackPeter]

depth signals can be mis leading in nz as so much trade is off - market.

glad you didnt fall for the hype on here around those elevated levels pumped up by the people who took the placement to offload into ( my theory anyway )

i dont see anything in the charts to suggest 1.10 is a good buying area , but i could be wrong in hindsight.

1.08 is also a bottom in the ascending channel from when it first listed was also a pivot point in early 2018

I would have thought that - just from a TA and trading perspective - $1.10 would be a quite significant support area. It is the MA200 (currently between 1.10 and 1.11), it is a round number (markets love that) and it is the price for Macquaries recent sell off. Of course - does not mean that it must hold in case the NZX decides to move into bear territory (currently hovering around the MA200 as well) ... but surprised you missed all of these points

[Beagle]

I would have thought that - just from a TA and trading perspective - $1.10 would be a quite significant support area. It is the MA200 (currently between 1.10 and 1.11), it is a round number (markets love that) and it is the price for Macquaries recent sell off. Of course - does not mean that it must hold in case the NZX decides to move into bear territory (currently hovering around the MA200 as well) ... but surprised you missed all of these points

Well said mate. Good points. This is an opportunity to acquire a company at a better value price than those that took part in the $1.10 placement about 3.5 months ago.
Cheaper because on an intrinsic value basis the company has been earning circa 1 cent per month since then and since no dividends have bene paid over that time the value accrual is quite clear. Next dividend due in February 19 which isn't that far away in the grand scheme of things.

Buy OCA for yourself for Christmas...the gift that you give yourself that is going to keep on giving back over and over again over the years ahead :t_up:
Might tuck some into the grandkids stocking so too speak in the family trust for their future.

[bull....]

I would have thought that - just from a TA and trading perspective - $1.10 would be a quite significant support area. It is the MA200 (currently between 1.10 and 1.11), it is a round number (markets love that) and it is the price for Macquaries recent sell off. Of course - does not mean that it must hold in case the NZX decides to move into bear territory (currently hovering around the MA200 as well) ... but surprised you missed all of these points

are you using a sma 200 or a ema 200 ? both give different readings i have 1.11 as the ema 200 and 1.10 as the sma 200 ? anyway i dont really use 200d m/a in this case as there is not enough price history to make a statistcal conclusion about its effectiveness.

[BlackPeter]

are you using a sma 200 or a ema 200 ? both give different readings i have 1.11 as the ema 200 and 1.10 as the sma 200 ? anyway i dont really use 200d m/a in this case as there is not enough price history to make a statistcal conclusion about its effectiveness.

Typically using the EMA but considering both. There is no point in relying on the "supreme" EMA as long as the market uses both of them (but I think more people use the SMA200). As we all know - market is always right ;);

However - in this case is this question for me anyway academical. I tend to use the EMAs (not just the 200) for some stocks where I feel that the market went ahead of itself as stop loss, but do not intend to sell OCA ... unless the fundamentals change (which I don't see - yet).

Did the same (holding) with SUM in 2017 when the stock was below the EMA200 and got nicely rewarded. Sold however out earlier this year when it looked more and more likely that they might have problems reaching their sales numbers. But this is for some other thread.

[bull....]

Typically using the EMA but considering both. There is no point in relying on the "supreme" EMA as long as the market uses both of them (but I think more people use the SMA200). As we all know - market is always right ;);

However - in this case is this question for me anyway academical. I tend to use the EMAs (not just the 200) for some stocks where I feel that the market went ahead of itself as stop loss, but do not intend to sell OCA ... unless the fundamentals change (which I don't see - yet).

Did the same (holding) with SUM in 2017 when the stock was below the EMA200 and got nicely rewarded. Sold however out earlier this year when it looked more and more likely that they might have problems reaching their sales numbers. But this is for some other thread.

good points being one should use a combination of fa/ta. it amazes me how many people dont even use just a basic chart to see the trend of what the market thinks of a stock.

[Leftfield]

As I believe the SP will be around $2.50 in 3 yrs, even a 10c range doesn't matter if your in for the Long haul, I mean it's more important what you sell for eventually.

All good Couta, each to his/her own.

I too am v much a long term investor, however, I have learned from bitter experience that once you have a 'high conviction' purchase, it is best to spread your purchases over time as few of us can accurately and consistently pick the bottoms.

If your horizon is 'long term' why rush in and buy all your OCA at 1.20 or 1.18? Best to use dollar cost averaging to squeeze out the 'best' 'average' price over time by buying in increments (particularly when the Trend is not yet your friend or uncertain and the total market situation is volatile - as it is with OCA.)

I remember the lessons learned buying XRO - do you?

[couta1]

All good Couta, each to his/her own.

I too am v much a long term investor, however, I have learned from bitter experience that once you have a 'high conviction' purchase, it is best to spread your purchases over time as few of us can accurately and consistently pick the bottoms.

If your horizon is 'long term' why rush in and buy all your OCA at 1.20 or 1.18? Best to use dollar cost averaging to squeeze out the 'best' 'average' price over time by buying in increments (particularly when the Trend is not yet your friend or uncertain and the total market situation is volatile - as it is with OCA.)

I remember the lessons learned buying XRO - do you? Umm I've bought OCA from 97c-$1.21, the point I was trying to make is your sale price at the other end can make a lot more difference than 10c or so at the buy end.

[Leftfield]

Umm I've bought OCA from 97c-$1.21, the point I was trying to make is your sale price at the other end can make a lot more difference than 10c or so at the buy end.

All cool Couta... I was under the mistaken impression that your av purchase price was around $1.21. Great that you actually have a lower average purchase price.

And yes I do appreciate that in 5 yrs today's SP might not matter much, but in the meantime it is nice to minimise the red ink.

[Ggcc]

The market just wants to see certainty in this share and I believe when the results come out later this month we will see it back up to $1.15 maybe higher. Of course don’t take my word for it and do your own research as I don’t want to be seen as offering advice.

[Joshuatree]

All good Couta, each to his/her own.

I too am v much a long term investor, however, I have learned from bitter experience that once you have a 'high conviction' purchase, it is best to spread your purchases over time as few of us can accurately and consistently pick the bottoms.

If your horizon is 'long term' why rush in and buy all your OCA at 1.20 or 1.18? Best to use dollar cost averaging to squeeze out the 'best' 'average' price over time by buying in increments (particularly when the Trend is not yet your friend or uncertain and the total market situation is volatile - as it is with OCA.)

I remember the lessons learned buying XRO - do you?

That is great advice.It requires discipline and planning which many just do not have.

[couta1]

The market just wants to see certainty in this share and I believe when the results come out later this month we will see it back up to $1.15 maybe higher. Of course don’t take my word for it and do your own research as I don’t want to be seen as offering advice. At the moment the market wouldn't have a clue what it wants its Jekyll and Hyde behaviour proves that, but for those that know this company and have done their own research none of that matters.

[Ggcc]

At the moment the market wouldn't have a clue what it wants its Jekyll and Hyde behaviour proves that, but for those that know this company and have done their own research none of that matters.
I agree lots of uncertainty out of everyone’s control, better for us as we continue to benefit in the longterm.

[Maverick]

All good Couta, each to his/her own.

I too am v much a long term investor, however, I have learned from bitter experience that once you have a 'high conviction' purchase, it is best to spread your purchases over time as few of us can accurately and consistently pick the bottoms.

If your horizon is 'long term' why rush in and buy all your OCA at 1.20 or 1.18? Best to use dollar cost averaging to squeeze out the 'best' 'average' price over time by buying in increments (particularly when the Trend is not yet your friend or uncertain and the total market situation is volatile - as it is with OCA.)

I remember the lessons learned buying XRO - do you?
Well laid out Leftfield , but the"dollar cost averaging" working out positivley for you totally depends on the share price retreating, as in OCAs case.
Had the share price continued to rise then this purchasing style would have worked against you. You might even have been cut out of the market. What if someone went all in at 98 cents, OCA sat at that for months earlier this year.
I don't think it really matters what "style" is used to get in on a high conviction stock, as long as one gets in.
However I do fully agree with you about not rushing though as this allows time to learn more pros and cons on the company to confirm the " level of conviction".

Because transparency is "on trend " on ST at the moment I m happy to fess up I've bought in donkey deep on this share since 98 cents and have since paid up $1.19. I'd buy more if I had any money available.
This is the highest conviction share I've come across since RBD at 60 cents AIR at $1.80 and HLG at 3.00.
Im not ramping , as I'm here for the very long haul, but I still maintain, "you just can't have too many OCA at this price."

[Snow Leopard]

Well laid out Leftfield , but the"dollar cost averaging" working out positivley for you totally depends on the share price retreating, as in OCAs case.
Had the share price continued to rise then this purchasing style would have worked against you. You might even have been cut out of the market. What if someone went all in at 98 cents, OCA sat at that for months earlier this year.
I don't think it really matters what "style" is used to get in on a high conviction stock, as long as one gets in.
However I do fully agree with you about not rushing though as this allows time to learn more pros and cons on the company to confirm the " level of conviction".

Because transparency is "on trend " on ST at the moment I m happy to fess up I've bought in donkey deep on this share since 98 cents and have since paid up $1.19. I'd buy more if I had any money available.
This is the highest conviction share I've come across since RBD at 60 cents AIR at $1.80 and HLG at 3.00....

Buying into a company over time in several separate purchases at (probably) different prices, whether it be dollar cost averaging or your scheme is a wonderful way of hedging.
Prices go up and down even when the fundamentals remain the same and provided your parcels are not so small that the brokerage is significant it is a more sensible way to go for most investors.


...Im not ramping , as I'm here for the very long haul, but I still maintain, "you just can't have too many OCA at this price."

You are ramping. No matter how convinced you are that OCA is the greatest thing since KFC you should have a limit on how many you hold.
One day one of you high conviction stocks may well turn on you in dramatic fashion.
I know there are many examples of successful people who bet big and won, but the many who lost the bet still exist, even if they have been forgotten.

Whilst I believe that the current share price is less than current fair value, I do not believe it is a screaming bargain buy, but it is being seriously over-hyped on this thread.

[winner69]

Maverick


Im not ramping , as I'm here for the very long haul, but I still maintain, "you just can't have too many OCA at this price."

Everybody should buy a few thousand (or heaps) shares as a Christmas present to themselves ....the gift that keeps giving

Buy at pre-Xmas prices as no Boxing Day sale here

[oldtech]

... and provided your parcels are not so small that the brokerage is significant it is a more sensible way to go for most investors.

Agreed, I have bought small parcels of various shares at times and always make a point of calculating brokerage per share, then adding that to the current share price, in order to know what I am REALLY paying for each share.

Wit the current price of OCA though ... well, ASB charges $15 for trades up to $1000, which means with OCA at $1.10 I could buy 909 shares and still only pay a total of $1.117 per share INCLUDING brokerage. Best way of investing my pocket money I know. :)

[Ggcc]

Buying into a company over time in several separate purchases at (probably) different prices, whether it be dollar cost averaging or your scheme is a wonderful way of hedging.
Prices go up and down even when the fundamentals remain the same and provided your parcels are not so small that the brokerage is significant it is a more sensible way to go for most investors.



You are ramping. No matter how convinced you are that OCA is the greatest thing since KFC you should have a limit on how many you hold.
One day one of you high conviction stocks may well turn on you in dramatic fashion.
I know there are many examples of successful people who bet big and won, but the many who lost the bet still exist, even if they have been forgotten.

Whilst I believe that the current share price is less than current fair value, I do not believe it is a screaming bargain buy, but it is being seriously over-hyped on this thread.

I have to agree with you on this a little. I feel that the price is fantastic at these prices, yet the price keeps dropping. The market determines the price and that is outside my control. I do believe it will increase over time if all goes to plan, but I don't think it will double in three years. We may see a price of $1.40-$1.50 in three years. There maybe other possible things happening in the world ie "another financial crisis", or something else outside the companies control that could drive the price down further. All retirement sectors borrow to expand and at some point the lenders may need that money back in a hurry.

Be cautious and buy more if you are happy with the price, or wait patiently on the sidelines as I have and as I have spoken about when the price went down to $1.18, until the news comes later this month to make an educated decision (which I could still get wrong). Best of luck to all holders which includes me.

[LAC]

Because transparency is "on trend " on ST at the moment ."

Very true indeed

[Beagle]

Who knows but its interesting looking back at annual FY18 results presentation of OCA. NTA was $1.04 as at balance date and went up 12 cps in the year from 94 cps in 2017.
NTA doesn't include development work in progress or the intellectual property value of all their consents obtained (but does include actual cost of getting consents). I would think at $1.10 at present OCA is trading right about in line with NTA at the half way point of the year in November and we're getting all the IP of the company including its stellar reputation for late stage care and the future IP value of resource consents already granted for nothing. Don't ever underestimate how hard it is to get resource consents for new or expanded villages. One of the absolute key's to this business is not only the key advantages of their business model in terms of churn rate but also the fact that it has years of future growth in its scale already consented ! When I see a really great business model with terrific IP thrown in for nothing I see a truly compelling long term investment proposition so this is my #1 listed investment position and #1 pick for 2019.

If it goes down a few more cents in the short term I won't be growing any more grey hairs over that. This is a long term bottom drawer stock and a fantastic vehicle to build wealth in a relatively defensive sector for the foreseeable future and in my opinion the investment metrics are awesome. Next dividend due in February which isn't that far away now.

DYOR though...this is just my opinion and is not advice.

[Ggcc]

Where do you find a NTA of $1.04? Everywhere I look it is $0.8516 on direct broking. On marketscreener it says book value per share is at $0.889 for 2018 and $0.9238 for 2019 and $0.9478 for 2020.
Plus another value
https://www.hhg.co.nz/news/peripheral-stock-focus-oceania-healthcare/

[Beagle]

http://nzx-prod-s7fsd7f98s.s3-website-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/attachments/OCA/321282/283328.pdf

Page 36 analysts presentation...lots of other interesting facts and figures in there as well :)

[Snow Leopard]

Where do you find a NTA of $1.04? Everywhere I look it is $0.8516 on direct broking. On marketscreener it says book value per share is at $0.889 for 2018 and $0.9238 for 2019 and $0.9478 for 2020.
Plus another value
https://www.hhg.co.nz/news/peripheral-stock-focus-oceania-healthcare/

Somebody has confused NTA & NAV.
Rookie mistake.

[winner69]

Somebody has confused NTA & NAV.
Rookie mistake.

and in Oceania's case the A doesn't stand for Asset

NAV is their fandangled thing called Net Adjusted Value

[Beagle]

Somebody has confused NTA & NAV.
Rookie mistake.

I'm looking forward to your expert analysis fully explaining the difference between the two :p

[trader_jackson]

I prefer NRV
Net Realistic Value

OCA around $1.30
ARV around $1.60

[couta1]

I prefer NRV
Net Realistic Value

OCA around $1.30
ARV around $1.60 I predict that the OCA SP will match or overtake ARV by the end of 2019.

[bull....]

goodbye to 1.10 , see what happens at 1.08

[couta1]

Lot of Christmas selling, holidays to be had, decks to build and just plain boredom selliing.Lol

[BlackPeter]

goodbye to 1.10 , see what happens at 1.08

what did you smoke? No trade I can see so far below 1.10;

[bull....]

what did you smoke? No trade I can see so far below 1.10;

obviously im guessing its going there

[trader_jackson]

I predict that the OCA SP will match or overtake ARV by the end of 2019.

We've seem ARV's result, the market didn't like them or something, and in jjust over a month we'll see OCA's and
get a picture of whether or not this may be possible.

[davflaws]

Kia ora Bull
You have made 3795 posts (or so the counter says). I can't remember a positive one - but I may be getting old and doddery. Just for interest, can you remember making any post that wasn't pessimistic?

[Beagle]

Kia ora Bull
You have made 3795 posts (or so the counter says). I can't remember a positive one - but I may be getting old and doddery. Just for interest, can you remember making any post that wasn't pessimistic?

Great post. There are four dots after the user handle Bull.... I will leave it to your imagination what those four dots mean lol

[Ggcc]

Kia ora Bull
You have made 3795 posts (or so the counter says). I can't remember a positive one - but I may be getting old and doddery. Just for interest, can you remember making any post that wasn't pessimistic?
Bull was positive the share price was heading below $1.10 as Bull forecast this morning that is positive for Bull

[bull....]

Kia ora Bull
You have made 3795 posts (or so the counter says). I can't remember a positive one - but I may be getting old and doddery. Just for interest, can you remember making any post that wasn't pessimistic?

you must be old and doddery lol ive been plenty bullish over the years now im both bullish and bearish depending on the stock or market. some might say i have matured with age now that i understand that theres two sides to a market.

anyway down we go will 1.08 hold , remember 1.08 is a pivot point on the charts pivot points can act as support sometimes

[bull....]

Kia ora Bull
You have made 3795 posts (or so the counter says). I can't remember a positive one - but I may be getting old and doddery. Just for interest, can you remember making any post that wasn't pessimistic?

sorry davs i didnt answer your question yes i been positive on spark recently mel , ift , mcy to name a few and plenty of stuff in the past

sorry i forgot tlt see so many bullish stocks ive seen i cant remeber them all

and as a note ive been bearish for a while maybe 6 mths on the whole retirement sector think its about that cant quite remeber would need to check the sum thread

[couta1]

Selling at this level reminds and of that film Dumb and Dumber, can't remember if there was a sequel.

[Ggcc]

you must be old and doddery lol ive been plenty bullish over the years now im both bullish and bearish depending on the stock or market. some might say i have matured with age now that i understand that theres two sides to a market.

anyway down we go will 1.08 hold , remember 1.08 is a pivot point on the charts pivot points can act as support sometimes
Well done for calling it. I will give credit where credit is due. I do not understand this market and if it goes lower I will be pouncing on this share. What do you see as fair value for Oceania from reading the charts?

[Beagle]

Selling at this level reminds and of that film Dumb and Dumber, can't remember if there was a sequel.

https://www.bing.com/videos/search?q=dumb+and+dumber+closing+scene&view=detail&mid=A4BBAA7165C55F6838DAA4BBAA7165C55F6838DA&FORM=VIRE

Don't worry, we'll catch our break too...we just have to keep our eyes open :lol:
That bus ride is OCA at $1.08 in my opinion. How could you not get lucky :lol:

[macduffy]

Well done for calling it. I will give credit where credit is due. I do not understand this market and if it goes lower I will be pouncing on this share. What do you see as fair value for Oceania from reading the charts?

I'm not sure that pouncing on any stock is a good idea - at least, not until it stops its downward momentum.

:cool:

[winner69]

Neighbour had to bail me up and asked wtf is going on with the OCA share price

I told him one guy said it’s a bit like Dumb and Dumber all this selling

Neighbour says he feels like Dumb buying at 121 but one of his bowling mates feels like Dumber because he bought heaps more than me

What could I say .....couldn’t really say ‘the trend is your friend’ could I so just told not too look at the price anymore and just think of it as a bad dream.

Don’t think that’s giving financial advise ...is it?

[Baa_Baa]

The whole up trend busted a few days ago, today the 200MA support fails and the both of the horizontal supports between $1.11 and $1.09 fail as well.

So you could imagine supports just about anywhere but I'm picking between $1.05 (green line) and $0.95 below that. Anyway, that's my accumulate range, hopefully before the Feb results.

10201

[winner69]

OBV not looking too good either....heading downward since the Macquarie sell down.

Apparently a falling OBV reflects negative volume pressure that can foreshadow lower prices......and worse there’s currently no divergence with price. In theory volume precedes price but we haven’t got a bullish divergence yet, when OBV moves higher even as prices move lower. Something like that anyway is how Mr P explained it to me

Maybe the lesson is a simple one .....never buy off Private Equity

[Beagle]

Volume weighted average price today was $1.0972 so perhaps lets not all get too carried away with this breaking completely down stuff.

[Baa_Baa]

Volume weighted average price today was $1.0972 so perhaps lets not all get too carried away with this breaking completely down stuff.

Good thing about TA and FA together is your FA tells you when the company is trading at or below its lowest metrics, and TA never lies, it confirms that market sentiment is gifting you a great deal. Conflating those equates to an accumulation opportunity for high conviction companies. It really doesn't matter how far the market dump this, as you've repeatedly said it's a long termer, and the cheaper you can buy it and the more you can buy of it the better your long term yield will be. Think of it as a gift, the market is gifting you long term yield which is improving as the SP falls, as long as you can stomach the head share price fluctuations and take advantage of the opportunity.

[Beagle]

Good thing about TA and FA together is your FA tells you when the company is trading at or below its lowest metrics, and TA never lies, it confirms that market sentiment is gifting you a great deal. Conflating those equates to an accumulation opportunity for high conviction companies. It really doesn't matter how far the market dump this, as you've repeatedly said it's a long termer, and the cheaper you can buy it and the more you can buy of it the better your long term yield will be. Think of it as a gift, the market is gifting you long term yield which is improving as the SP falls, as long as you can stomach the head share price fluctuations and take advantage of the opportunity.

Yes absolutely, a gift you give yourself and I am happy to keep accumulating down here but am carefully pacing myself.

[macduffy]

Good thing about TA and FA together is your FA tells you when the company is trading at or below its lowest metrics, and TA never lies, it confirms that market sentiment is gifting you a great deal. Conflating those equates to an accumulation opportunity for high conviction companies. It really doesn't matter how far the market dump this, as you've repeatedly said it's a long termer, and the cheaper you can buy it and the more you can buy of it the better your long term yield will be. Think of it as a gift, the market is gifting you long term yield which is improving as the SP falls, as long as you can stomach the head share price fluctuations and take advantage of the opportunity.

Except that the metrics thrown up by fundamental analysis are historical, making no allowance for future conditions!

[couta1]

Except that the metrics thrown up by fundamental analysis are historical, making no allowance for future conditions! The Fundamentals are strong as are the the Tailwinds but the market is weak, who are you going to believe? you already know my answer.

[winner69]

Yesterday’s share price action just an aberration and today the share price will be well over 110 again won’t it?

Would never have thought we would be relieved and excited to see 110 again

[trader_jackson]

Maybe if we talk less, ramp less, and give OCA next to no attention the share price will fare better?
Seems to work for ARV

[Maverick]

Maybe if we talk less, ramp less, and give OCA next to no attention the share price will fare better?
Seems to work for ARV
The company must be struggling, maybe someone knows the results are going to be disappointing next month?

We`ll that thought lasted all of about 2 seconds... I`ll think I`ll keep them all for another 5 years, might get back to $1.20 but at least the dividend will be 10 cents by then.

[steveb]

The company must be struggling, maybe someone knows the results are going to be disappointing next month?

We`ll that thought lasted all of about 2 seconds... I`ll think I`ll keep them all for another 5 years, might get back to $1.20 but at least the dividend will be 10 cents by then.
If the divvie is 10cents a share by then the SP should be over the $2.00 mark,and yes like you will hang on to them and add a few now and again.

[Ggcc]

$1.07 keep waiting people even though it is tempting. Maybe insider knowledge. If news is bad we have a leaky boat in this business

[Gecko]

Spoke with a Oceania Nurse Manager yesterday who said Oceania care placements in Chch are increasingly made by Gov agency referral over private patients. Not sure how this impacts revenue but would have thought Govt guaranteed revenue should be viewed as a positive.

[couta1]

$1.07 keep waiting people even though it is tempting. Maybe insider knowledge. If news is bad we have a leaky boat in this business Not insider knowledge just a Fear gripped market.

[Antipodean]

CFO seems happy to continue to hold, 340k odd.

[couta1]

Spoke with a Oceania Nurse Manager yesterday who said Oceania care placements in Chch are increasingly made by Gov agency referral over private patients. Not sure how this impacts revenue but would have thought Govt guaranteed revenue should be viewed as a positive. Positive on a referral basis and if it stops beds from being empty for too long but on a financial basis it makes no difference whether residents are private paying or fully subsidised.

[bull....]

Well done for calling it. I will give credit where credit is due. I do not understand this market and if it goes lower I will be pouncing on this share. What do you see as fair value for Oceania from reading the charts?

fair value is what the market decides obviously not around these levels , breaking down thru uptrend from when first listed now and the 1.08 didnt provide much support. next pivot support is 1 dollar also a 50% retracement level. 1.04 before then?

[couta1]

fair value is what the market decides obviously not around these levels , breaking down thru uptrend from when first listed now and the 1.08 didnt provide much support. next pivot support is 1 dollar also a 50% retracement level. 1.04 before then? Fair value cannot be determined during the extremes of market movements(In this case an extreme downward movement) Fair value can only be determined by concrete balance sheet facts not the ever changing sentiment of a fickle/fear driven market no matter which extreme it runs to.

[minimoke]

fair value is what the market decides obviously not around these levels , breaking down thru uptrend from when first listed now and the 1.08 didnt provide much support. next pivot support is 1 dollar also a 50% retracement level. 1.04 before then?Time to transfer money into the trading account and pick some more up.

[bull....]

Time to transfer money into the trading account and pick some more up.

at what price ? the way its going maybe something is seriuosly wrong.

perhaps not enough clients dying quick enough?

[LAC]

at what price ? the way its going maybe something is seriuosly wrong.

perhaps not enough clients dying quick enough?
But will they die fast enough in the next 20 years....

[minimoke]

at what price ? the way its going maybe something is seriuosly wrong.

perhaps not enough clients dying quick enough?We'll was going to buy at $1.12 till my money got lost in transit with the Direct Broking change. So anything less I'm still in the money.

[trader_jackson]

$1.07 keep waiting people even though it is tempting. Maybe insider knowledge. If news is bad we have a leaky boat in this business

Mr Market hearing the good news about ARV? Still rock solid at $1.30
Just don't want to talk about it too much as the more talking = the bigger drop, eg OCA today

[BlackPeter]

at what price ? the way its going maybe something is seriuosly wrong.

perhaps not enough clients dying quick enough?

B/S - and I am pretty sure you know it. Whats happening with OCA's SP has nothing to do with OCA's performance. Nothing changed there since a month ago, a week ago or since yesterday. Same as with the other 87 NZX stocks who are dropping today.

People are afraid of a bear market and selling out - on this stock as well as on many others. And yes, some merchants of fear enjoy themselves by stirring the angst.

There are only two relevant questions:

a) are we moving into a bear (I think the answer is currently something like 50/50) and
b) how much will a company like OCA be impacted if the market does the Full Monty?
To that question ... I think the answer will be lots. Ryman dropped during the GFC more than 50%, though OCA might be a bit more resiliant (less property andmore care). But consider the alternative - if you keep cash and your bank goes bust you lose 100%.

Bull... , I really think, you should start worrying more about the safety of your cash reserves. If they all go bust it won't be you having the last lough.

But hey - the sun goes up tomorrow, the FED might reduce interest rates instead of rising them (and I think they could defend that) and currently might be just one of these buying opportunities.

Discl: hold OCA, hold lots of them and am still nicely in the black ;);

[bull....]

B/S - and I am pretty sure you know it. Whats happening with OCA's SP has nothing to do with OCA's performance. Nothing changed there since a month ago, a week ago or since yesterday. Same as with the other 87 NZX stocks who are dropping today.

People are afraid of a bear market and selling out - on this stock as well as on many others. And yes, some merchants of fear enjoy themselves by stirring the angst.

There are only two relevant questions:

a) are we moving into a bear (I think the answer is currently something like 50/50) and
b) how much will a company like OCA be impacted if the market does the Full Monty?
To that question ... I think the answer will be lots. Ryman dropped during the GFC more than 50%, though OCA might be a bit more resiliant (less property andmore care). But consider the alternative - if you keep cash and your bank goes bust you lose 100%.

Bull... , I really think, you should start worrying more about the safety of your cash reserves. If they all go bust it won't be you having the last lough.

But hey - the sun goes up tomorrow, the FED might reduce interest rates instead of rising them (and I think they could defend that) and currently might be just one of these buying opportunities.

Discl: hold OCA, hold lots of them and am still nicely in the black ;);

rubbish bp and you know it , theres plenty of stocks on the nzx holding there ground or even going up.

as far as my guess on deaths are down how would you know thats not the case have you been counting the hearses leaving? so your more informed than my guess

[BlackPeter]

rubbish bp and you know it , theres plenty of stocks on the nzx holding there ground or even going up.

as far as my guess on deaths are down how would you know thats not the case have you been counting the hearses leaving? so your more informed than my guess

Pretty tasteless comment ...

But no - I have seen no information that the market conditions materially changed. Have you?

[bull....]

Pretty tasteless comment ...

But no - I have seen no information that the market conditions materially changed. Have you?

well no thats the cold hard truth that retirement business models are mainly about resales and that means people dying or leaving. so if people live longer than there forecasted model resales will be down

[couta1]

rubbish bp and you know it , theres plenty of stocks on the nzx holding there ground or even going up.

as far as my guess on deaths are down how would you know thats not the case have you been counting the hearses leaving? so your more informed than my guess Your talking more nonsense there bull, I can assure you that people are dying just as readily of late in this sector as they always have. PS-Whoever sold OCA at $1.05 has serious mental health issues.Lol

[RupertBear]

My holding just dipped into the red today for the first time, stink, guess I may have to top up when it goes down further as not planning on selling ;) Chart looking pretty sick tho :(

[Baa_Baa]

The whole up trend busted a few days ago, today the 200MA support fails and the both of the horizontal supports between $1.11 and $1.09 fail as well.

So you could imagine supports just about anywhere but I'm picking between $1.05 (green line) and $0.95 below that. Anyway, that's my accumulate range, hopefully before the Feb results.

10201

I rarely quote myself, it's the height of poor form imo, but I can't resist as the SP today found that green line support at $1.05 and would you believe it, bounced off it! Closing at $1.07.

Enough from me, just a coincidence probably, almost certainly, but kind of amusing in an otherwise thoroughly depressing day for OCA's SP.

Today's guru is tomorrow's fool.
:eek2:

[Beagle]

I think a few weak hands got flushed out today. Now trading on a forward PE of about 10 which is extremely cheap for this sector which as we all know has very strong tailwinds for the foreseeable future. I am staying strapped in tight with a good supply of sick bags kept handy and will ride out this turbulence no matter how bad it gets. I hate extreme turbulence on any journey but sometimes one has to man up and weather the storm and this is one of those occasions.

[oldtech]

I rarely quote myself, it's the height of poor form imo, but I can't resist as the SP today found that green line support at $1.05 and would you believe it, bounced off it! Closing at $1.07.

Enough from me, just a coincidence probably, almost certainly, but kind of amusing in an otherwise thoroughly depressing day for OCA's SP.

Today's guru is tomorrow's fool.
:eek2:

Sorry if this is a dumb question, I am trying (very trying, my wife would say ...) to understand TA. How do you get support at $1.05? I have tried to pick support for OCA but seem to stick at $0.98

[bull....]

looks like 1 is on the cards heavy selling occurring. 1 is next supports in the charts as mentioned prior. no guarantee of course

[alex f]

Haven't they got a result coming next month ? (and a dividend) price drop could be something to do with this?

I think I'll retire into an OCA facility if everyone there lives longer.
Not so keen on SUM RYM ARV if they "have hearses waiting at the door".

[trader_jackson]

I sold out a third of my OCA holding at 98c this time a year ago as I needed the cash at the time... Didn't really want to, but it is what it is.
Now here I am a year later and it seems there is momentum for it to go back to that price I sold a portion out at a year ago - 6 months ago I never thought I'd see such a stunning opportunity, a 2nd chance, if anything.
Also didn't think I'd see HBL go under $1.50 either and it went 10% below that point yesterday.

It seems I am as good as the analysts at Macquaries when it comes to picking numbers vs what is actually the case
ARV rock solid still at $1.30, so lets keep quiet on that thread plz... juicy 1.3 cent dividend paid tomorrow as well

[couta1]

Might have to up the Meds for those still selling, it's obvious their conditions are not under control.Lol

[bull....]

Might have to up the Meds for those still selling, it's obvious their conditions are not under control.Lol

thats the problem with meds the side affects. just need to see some of the zombies in care facilities to know they should be smoking weed instead

[macduffy]

Far too much agonising over the shareprice on this thread for what is a longterm stock. Trying to trade it when a strong insto has the big holding puts one on a hiding to nothing.

[JayRiggs]

Far too much agonising over the shareprice on this thread for what is a longterm stock. Trying to trade it when a strong insto has the big holding puts one on a hiding to nothing.

I understand what ya saying. OCA for what is largely perceived on here to be trading on cheaper multiples + higher growth compared to other retirement village peers. As most of us expect OCA's share price to be moving upwards, a 12% drop in the space of 3 months and a 5% drop in the past few trading days - the reaction to the share price on here I believe is only natural.
Anyways, I am trying to take advantage of this price drop. Prepared to buy on the way down to the 90c regions.

[couta1]

Far too much agonising over the shareprice on this thread for what is a longterm stock. Trying to trade it when a strong insto has the big holding puts one on a hiding to nothing. I reckon it's an Insto that bought at $1.10 that's selling due to the macro environment, nothing fundamental has changed whatsoever and I'm anticipating a good upcoming result followed by an even better one for the full year.

[bull....]

minimum wage going up in april

https://www.stuff.co.nz/business/109469758/govt-outlines-pay-boost-for-minimumwage-earners

[couta1]

minimum wage going up in april

https://www.stuff.co.nz/business/109469758/govt-outlines-pay-boost-for-minimumwage-earners Makes no difference to this industry as all workers are already above that new minimum.

[minimoke]

Apologies to punters. I've just topped up at $1.04

[bull....]

has anyone considered the conversion of there care beds to care suites provides a 1 off big gain in revenue not likely to be repeated in future years?

[thestg]

Apologies to punters. I've just topped up at $1.04

I have also topped up at $1.04

[minimoke]

I have also topped up at $1.04Who knows where the bottom is - but we cant be far away now.

[Onion]

306K just went through for $1.04 - which of you was it? :eek2:

[couta1]

has anyone considered the conversion of there care beds to care suites provides a 1 off big gain in revenue not likely to be repeated in future years? Umm but they resell every 2 yrs on average.

[BlackPeter]

Umm but they resell every 2 yrs on average.

... and haven't they a queue of serveral thousand units still to build?

[winner69]

... and haven't they a queue of serveral thousand units still to build?

Yep ....pretty amazing eh ...

Not much, maybe nothing, can go wrong stopping Oceania making us all rich.

No worries

[Maverick]

has anyone considered the conversion of there care beds to care suites provides a 1 off big gain in revenue not likely to be repeated in future years?
The conversion of their carebeds to care suits provides a 1 off big cost but is regained byrevenue certainly repeated in future years.

Seriously Bull....? I hope no one on this thread associates the frequency of your posts with the idea you actually know what you`re talking about.

[couta1]

... and haven't they a queue of serveral thousand units still to build? Yep, will be rolled out across all their villages.

[Beagle]

... and haven't they a queue of serveral thousand units still to build?

Most of which are already consented. SUM companies have multi year unresolved Boulcott consenting fiasco's, not OCA :)

A client of mine had an 8 figure property deal fall over last week because the buyer couldn't get the consenting they needed to make the development commercially feasible...a salient reminder to me of the value of existing resource consents, not that I needed it !

[bull....]

The conversion of their carebeds to care suits provides a 1 off big cost but is regained byrevenue certainly repeated in future years.

Seriously Bull....? I hope no one on this thread associates the frequency of your posts with the idea you actually know what you`re talking about.

i must be smoking to much , i thought when you had an existing stock of beds and you convert them to a care suite. there is a cost for conversion but when they sell them they get 10% upfront and a gain from the sale over the cost on the books before of the care bed.followed by 10% each yr for a total of 3 yrs. the point i was making they donot have a delay for new builds consented as its existing stock so they making 10% revenue gains very quickly etc which can only be replicated in revenue in the future if they get enough brownfields up and running which is highly dependant on consenting and land

just to clarify its a fast way to make the books look good

[bull....]

Most of which are already consented. SUM companies have multi year unresolved Boulcott consenting fiasco's, not OCA :)

A client of mine had an 8 figure property deal fall over last week because the buyer couldn't get the consenting they needed to make the development commercially feasible...a salient reminder to me of the value of existing resource consents, not that I needed it !

how much of the consented stuff is existing stock?

[Ggcc]

I went fishing today and looked at the price when I got back. My mouth is drooling, but who knows where the bottom price is when someone is dumping their shares.

[couta1]

I went fishing today and looked at the price when I got back. My mouth is drooling, but who knows where the bottom price is when someone is dumping their shares. Dumping their shares and taking a good loss I reckon which makes me feel good.Lol