OCA - Oceania Group - retirement villages

[Sideshow Bob]

$1.08.....

This thing is going like Air NZ. But with some sort of fundamentals!

[Beagle]

$1.08.....

This thing is going like Air NZ. But with some sort of fundamentals!

One has compelling fundamentals, (sorry, no chocolate fish prize for guessing which one) :)

[Waltzing]

If it can even maintain a 4% div and with and a quoted "revolution of FED policy" cnbc asia interview with black rocks Ben Powell a new bull market coud form well ahead of the GFC model, aussi market up 3%.. well over 1.30 easily by march 31 2021?

[Curly]

I’m picking $1.50 by year end and then 50 cent capital gain each year for the next 5 plus years. “Every dog has its day” not that OCA has ever been a dog, it is well positioned to out perform the big cats, RYM, SUM and MET in the capital gain stakes. Go you good thing.

[nevchev]

Hopefully we stay at or above NTA untill reults or some kind of positive announcement.Buyers drying up at this point.GLTA

[nevchev]

Strangely quiet here this afternoon.I guess a bit of shell shock for some.Maybe we should just be happy with where we are and the meteoric rise to date.The trouble with prediction is its always about the unforeseeable future........

[winner69]

Strangely quiet here this afternoon.I guess a bit of shell shock for some.Maybe we should just be happy with where we are and the meteoric rise to date.The trouble with prediction is its always about the unforeseeable future........

Bugger eh ....at least it didn’t end down for the day

Tomorrow will be a good day

[Beagle]

Rose 8 cents yesterday bring the gain for just the last month to 28 cents (37.3%) and held its ground today despite the market being down 2%.

[Baa_Baa]

Rose 8 cents yesterday bring the gain for just the last month to 28 cents (37.3%) and held its ground today despite the market being down 2%.

Exactly, brilliant reversion towards realistic valuation on market, it was so massively oversold, but not quite there yet but good progress. Some people want it all by lunchtime, whereas I’ll give it a lifetime.

Probably hoe in if it does a pullback, but I do have a stop loss in place if something stupid happens again, after which I’d be going so large my accountant will be referring me to counselling!

[Beagle]

https://www.bing.com/images/search?view=detailV2&ccid=y%2bQAhv7H&id=DE84B45B2EEB0F0EBA0881AC35788C0DC7FCD50E&thid=OIP.y-QAhv7HH-40ck8X_sxxugHaEU&mediaurl=https%3a%2f%2fbeagleslife.com%2fwp-content%2fuploads%2f2019%2f12%2fBeagle-Snores-1024x597.jpg&exph=597&expw=1024&q=sleep+beagles&simid=608042698932289829&ck=C3398B69CD0DFF887646A6173C84433A&selectedIndex=6&ajaxhist=0
Caption this - I reckon, wake me up when we get to $2...that's one very contented looking Beagle :)

[nevchev]

Rose 8 cents yesterday bring the gain for just the last month to 28 cents (37.3%) and held its ground today despite the market being down 2%.
Pretty good alright!Patience now becomes the problem.Some down days and a stagnet sp,a thought that youve found the next big thing.........
Buying at a buck?Its a no brainer!!

[petty]

Painful chat from me. Apologies in advance. Baa Baa I’m keen to understand how you decide on a stop loss. I have recently put stop losses on a handful of my holdings (approximately half of my holding in each company).
Naturally nervous that my stoploss is triggered and sp recovers quickly following this.
How do you identify a trigger and how carefully do you manage these?

[Entrep]

The most recent run up in OCA followed these shares pumping. Be interesting to watch today

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[Baa_Baa]

Painful chat from me. Apologies in advance. Baa Baa I’m keen to understand how you decide on a stop loss. I have recently put stop losses on a handful of my holdings (approximately half of my holding in each company).
Naturally nervous that my stoploss is triggered and sp recovers quickly following this.
How do you identify a trigger and how carefully do you manage these?

I'm no expert petty, and there's no hard and fast rules that I'm aware of, I just do what I think is right for each of my holdings, they're all different. I use SL because I am unable to actively monitor the daily price and therefore cannot execute a trade when I might need to. Typically I'd figure out the the usual daily % price swings, and place a stop loss sell 'at market' outside the limit of that range, so for example if usual swing maximum is <5% then a stop loss might be at 8-10%.

I never use stop loss limit sell because the market can drop lower than my limit and I'm left in the ask with a higher price. Stop loss sell at market can also execute at well below the trigger price, it's just a safety net, get out of jail. Because we can't set a 'trailing stop loss' (automatically adjusts the trigger following the price) I check and adjust my SL orders daily after close of trade - yes it's a pain. Depending on the size of the holding and amount of capital gain, my SL order can range from the whole holding, to a percentage of the holding.

Sorry this is so vague but there's no science involved imo, it's finding a SL for each holding that fits my risk tolerance level, which is different for each holding.

[Waltzing]

TA a small pull back which we have had from 1.08 , lucky if we get 101-102.. FEB meeting on and the market is expecting the balance sheet to go to 10 billion. Cant see this stock staying under a dollar for long.

[oldtech]

I'm no expert petty, and there's no hard and fast rules that I'm aware of, I just do what I think is right for each of my holdings, they're all different. I use SL because I am unable to actively monitor the daily price and therefore cannot execute a trade when I might need to. Typically I'd figure out the the usual daily % price swings, and place a stop loss sell 'at market' outside the limit of that range, so for example if usual swing maximum is <5% then a stop loss might be at 8-10%.

I am no expert either, but is this using chandelier exits and Average True Range?

[nevchev]

We needed this pull back in my opinion. Some taking profits and rightly so.So much potential here over the next few years.I for one will not be selling anytime soon.

[Baa_Baa]

I am no expert either, but is this using chandelier exits and Average True Range? At risk of staying off-topic, no. I said my method has no science, though sometimes I might base the trigger on a technical support. I don't trade shares anymore, so for me this is about last resort capital protection. Maybe start a new thread or find an existing one and we can carry on the chat there.

[Beagle]

We needed this pull back in my opinion. Some taking profits and rightly so.So much potential here over the next few years.I for one will not be selling anytime soon.

Agreed. I have a bid in for another 50,000 @ $1 that only got a partial fill the other day so am first in the queue at $1 for the balance of that order and no way am I giving up that position. Hope I get a fill later today !

[nevchev]

Agreed. I have a bid in for another 50,000 @ $1 that only got a partial fill the other day so am first in the queue at $1 for the balance of that order and no way am I giving up that position. Hope I get a fill later today !
Good luck Beagle!woof woof.I will be accumulating as finances allow

[RTM]

Agreed. I have a bid in for another 50,000 @ $1 that only got a partial fill the other day so am first in the queue at $1 for the balance of that order and no way am I giving up that position. Hope I get a fill later today !

What % of your portfolio does it hold Beagle ? Surprised you are still buying. I got the extra I needed at 75c....even a wee bit more than I needed. And am content with that.
May lighten up to hold it around 6-8% should the price go up.

[Beagle]

More than I would normally hold in any one company but these are very unusual times mate and its incredibly difficult to find companies that will weather this Covid and economic crisis in a robust way and that have excellent prospects going forward. The metrics are really compelling for this sector. Very cheap forward FY21 PE of less than 10 by my estimate and yield of 5%.

Yeah I got a lot in the low 70's and sort of surprised myself I was keen for more at $1. I am buying at $1 because I am taking a 5 year view that these are highly likely to double in that timeframe, or more and the yield is safe as its a needs based business and is more than double what I can get on term deposit. That is what's driving me to take an outsized position.

To be honest I am having a lot of difficulty finding stocks that I am comfortable holding as we enter the early stages of what is probably a deep recession so I am adapting my investment strategy to suit.

[RTM]

More than I would normally hold in any one company but these are very unusual times mate and its incredibly difficult to find companies that will weather this Covid and economic crisis in a robust way and that have excellent prospects going forward. The metrics are really compelling for this sector. Very cheap forward FY21 PE of less than 10 by my estimate and yield of 5%. I am buying at $1 because I am taking a 5 year view that these are extremely likely to double in that timeframe, perhaps even triple and the yield is safe as its a needs based business and is more than double what I can get on term deposit.

Understood....and you are not yet retired.
So far I think my well diversified portfolio has served us pretty well. While some dividends have gone, many have continued. And our income from dividends remains pretty spread from a number of stocks.
This may not be over yet. While it looks like a V....I am not discounting a W. If I could I would have made the middle mountain half height.

[Beagle]

Mark Lister of Craigs the other day saying the average yield of NZX50 shares is presently just 3.6%. I want to retire in the next few years mate but can't do it on that sort of return or on 2% term deposits in the bank. 5% works for me though or stated more correctly 7% at my average buy price :)

[TobyPascoe92]

Mark Lister of Craigs the other day saying the average yield of NZX50 shares is presently just 3.6%. I want to retire in the next few years mate but can't do it on that sort of return or on 2% term deposits in the bank. 5% works for me though or stated more correctly 7% at my average buy price :)

Question for your expertise Beagle, if we are to have a W recovery so potentially another deep crash, do you have any trigger points at which you would pull your holding, allow the stock to drop down to near what it was (.40 - .50) and buy back in? I don’t believe OCA should drop as much the next time around but it just seemed to get a hammering last time and I think a lot out of pure fear of Covid, but I suspect the next time could just be out of fear of not having cash on hand going into a deep recession. Would expect to see a lot of our new investors from the likes of sharesies jump ship at any cost. So back to my question, do you think this could happen and do you have any triggers?

[nevchev]

I know no news is good news in these turbulent times but i for one would certainly appreciate a post level 4 announcement to how we have faired and are now tracking with life seemingly returning to relative normalcy.

Just saying Earl

[Beagle]

Question for your expertise Beagle, if we are to have a W recovery so potentially another deep crash, do you have any trigger points at which you would pull your holding, allow the stock to drop down to near what it was (.40 - .50) and buy back in? I don’t believe OCA should drop as much the next time around but it just seemed to get a hammering last time and I think a lot out of pure fear of Covid, but I suspect the next time could just be out of fear of not having cash on hand going into a deep recession. Would expect to see a lot of our new investors from the likes of sharesies jump ship at any cost. So back to my question, do you think this could happen and do you have any triggers?

Thanks for your question mate. The short answer is I don't have any plans to execute a stop loss strategy on OCA.
Apart from the compelling metrics I mentioned above there are real differences between this and for the sake of clearly differentiating the sector, MET.
MET are primarily about independent living units and OCA are predominantly about care. I believe most people buy into an OCA unit for the care which is a needs based thing as opposed to a lifestyle choice one makes at MET. If you have a need for late stage care or a perceived need in the near future it doesn't really matter if we're in recession or not. I have just over 20 times the number of shares in OCA as I do MET. (Needs based is vastly more robust than lifestyle based decisions, notwithstanding the compelling valuation of MET and the possibility of a takeover).

If we're going into a W type economic situation that drives that response on the market then the whole market will be significantly impacted but those who are providing needs based services should see materially less impact. Don't forget though that the Govt has another $20 billion up its sleeve, unallocated from the budget to fight the economic fallout from this virus. Despite that, I remain concerned about the level of the market generally so am very cautious with my overall level of exposure to equities which still sits at less than 50%, (but I do have significant ability to lift this further through possibly exercising warrants down the track detailed below).

I think the very deep dive, (under 60 cents for just 7 trading days) was a really huge fear response. I felt it and I know many others did too. Late March was very dark days of concern for what might happen. Hopefully now that OCA have demonstrated very good risk management procedures around virus risk control, as have the Government for that matter, the market will act rationally from here.

In terms of managing market risk, (W or L shaped recovery) I have a three pronged approach.
1. Stick only to companies that are needs based and who should trade well, or quite well in a recession and have robust cash flows and a good strong balance sheet.
2. Maintain a high cash position.
3. Maintain upside exposure to the market through the use of warrants. Warrants confer the right to subscribe to shares at a future date at a fixed price but not the obligation. I have significant stakes in Kingfish warrants (KFLWF) N.Z. market possible exercise March 2021 and Marlin Warrants U.S. market possible exercise November 2020 (MLNWD).

[Waltzing]

some people selling ... waiting at a 1.0 ...

[Beagle]

Briefly dipped to $1.00 intraday and managed to hoover up a few more...8300 or so. Happy with that. Still front of queue for a some more at that price.

[Playa]

Briefly dipped to $1.00 intraday and managed to hoover up a few more...8300 or so. Happy with that. Still front of queue for a some more at that price.
Im feeling very comfortable in OCA now we are Covid free.Looking at them as a potential place to put an elderly relative,would Oceania be your first choice in the sector for a relative to live?If not who would be?

[Beagle]

Im feeling very comfortable in OCA now we are Covid free.Looking at them as a potential place to put an elderly relative,would Oceania be your first choice in the sector for a relative to live?If not who would be?

I feel the same. It depends on their age and what lifestyle they want, where they live and what they can afford. I have no qualms whatsoever about OCA's healthcare standards but for an active 70 something year old that wants a full continuum of care and lots of resort style facilities some of the bigger RYM facilities might be better. On the other hand if they're in their 80's and live anywhere near the sands in Browns Bay or the Meadowbank facility then that makes profound common sense. Often it comes down to where their friends have moved into. Life is a lot more fun with a few good friends nearby :) Good friends and family being really handy are more important than whether a facility has the best bowling greens or pool and spa facilities don't you think ?

The short answer is Couta1, (who I know really well and who knows this sector really well) has 100% confidence in OCA's healthcare standards. I'm more than happy to trust his judgement on the matter.

[Cyclical]

Question for your expertise Beagle, if we are to have a W recovery so potentially another deep crash, do you have any trigger points at which you would pull your holding, allow the stock to drop down to near what it was (.40 - .50) and buy back in? I don’t believe OCA should drop as much the next time around but it just seemed to get a hammering last time and I think a lot out of pure fear of Covid, but I suspect the next time could just be out of fear of not having cash on hand going into a deep recession. Would expect to see a lot of our new investors from the likes of sharesies jump ship at any cost. So back to my question, do you think this could happen and do you have any triggers?

I really can't see us having a deep crash from this point any time soon. There is just too much cash still sitting on the sidelines waiting for an excuse to get into the market...FOMO will be amplified as people have seen how much can be made in the space of 2 or 3 months, not to mention interest rates being so low. At worst imo is more likely a gradual decline back to values more representative of fundamentals. Perhaps when all that spare cash has been thrown into a rising market over the coming months, then it will start to get a bit scary. We're all guessing though and my predictions about market direction for the last 3 months have been incorrect. But probably most us here will be diving further into OCA if it drops back to 70 or 80 something...we'll need Salt to help us with that.

[Waltzing]

Salt are a bit late selling down to move into tech on the NAS?(just where a lot of people like me thought about it but did not invest) but i guess we should consider tech is only just getting starting (new chips from an english company costing 10,000 USD for servers). Personally the US capital gains tax admin here in NZ for over 50,000 and using platforms put me off when in fact facebook MS and apple were no brainers in hind site.

Unless OCA cut the dividend i dont know, have we even seen the start of the money flow into the market when savers see there TD returns? Zero rates for a while yet...

Has everyone with those TD's made a decision yet? It could take 12 months for people to come to a decision. Prehaps the Brillant MR B could give us some thoughts about how investors in certain ages group might be thinking.

https://www.cnbc.com/2020/06/10/fed-meeting-decision-interest-rates.html

lets not forget that money can go into the high performance sector such as ZOOOOOM... and for the early morning exercise addict the yoga pants crowd which of course every COA gymn should have a sprung dance floor and doubles up as a YOGA room... entertain those more mobile kiwis who can still shake it....

[Beagle]

Term deposit investment rates were already deeply concerning for investors before the Covid 19 crisis hit. Current rates of around 2% are now profoundly concerning for retired investors and anyone else depending on that income because not only can they not live on that sort of return, it is highly likely that the return after tax will not keep pace even with inflation, (which was 2.5% in the year to 31/3/20).

I believe we will see Billions being withdrawn from term deposits as a matter of compulsion that investors must invest elsewhere and take on board some risk to afford to live. The question is what stocks provide very safe yield ? This is why I am still buying at $1.00 because 5% is a lot better than 2%, and the 5% will go up over time as OCA grows. On top of that is the very strong likelihood of excellent capital appreciation in the years ahead.

Mark Lister of Craigs the other day saying the average yield of the NZX50 is now just 3.6% (with so many companies cutting dividends). Investors chasing dividend yield need to be very discerning to carefully choose companies that have a very resilient business model. 5% is now a high yield company.

[Waltzing]

that pull back was fast but was a bit slow on the trade, still a few dollars in a day was good.. now wait ... i think the stream might be coming out of this rally a bit. Thank you MR B 5% high yield? and there are not to many of those? I think i will stick with OCA for a while yet.

[Cyclical]

Unless OCA cut the dividend i dont know, have we even seen the start of the money flow into the market when savers see there TD returns? Zero rates for a while yet...

Has everyone with those TD's made a decision yet? It could take 12 months for people to come to a decision. Prehaps the Brillant MR B could give us some thoughts about how investors in certain ages group might be thinking.

My parents in there their early 70s have a good chunk in TD's. I was suggesting to my father about 2 months ago that OCA would be a good bet in the low 70s at the time, knowing full well that he was far too risk averse and hasn't been interested in the share market since being burnt in '87. Little did I know of course is that it was my Mum that I should have directed that advice towards, as she has been busy taking in articles from Mary Holms and was looking for alternatives to the 1-2% offerings. Anyway, by the time I learnt about Mum's interest in stocks, it was probably too late (IMO) as OCA was mid '80s (this is Queens birthday weekend) and I was getting a little concerned about how the market was going gang busters. Subsequently she's let the TD's rollover and OCA has hit a buck haha. But if the opportunity arises again (a small correction), it probably wouldn't take much convincing for Mum to get in on the mix. Long story, but there are probably plenty in that demographic in the same situation, eyeing the opportunities, cash seeking better yield.

[Joshuatree]

So much to consider including what the Reserve Bank said on Q&A on monday that their baseline on housing prices are a drop of 9-10% ,ahead of us.

[Waltzing]

well that small correction might occur as FED chair has spooked the market with a dire outlook and the market is ready to sell...


DID i SAY SMALL ? heres the first one, DOW down over 6%.

[nevchev]

Seems they are expecting second wave of corona virus.Glad to be a kiwi living at the bottom of the world!!

[Bjauck]

Seems they are expecting second wave of corona virus.Glad to be a kiwi living at the bottom of the world!! We need to make sure that overseas arrivals observe strict quarantine procedures.

[nevchev]

We need to make sure that overseas arrivals observe strict quarantine procedures.

Yes,i was just thinking the same thing.I dont think self isolation cuts it.We need these people to be placed where they can be monitored to take the guess work out of the equation

[bull....]

looks like a run for the exits on this

[Beagle]

Solid result this morning from RYM indicates this sector works well even in challenging times. This is the most resilient in the sector due to its predominantly needs based business model and also has by far the most compelling metrics. Happy holder.

[Entrep]

Land stocks massacred overnight

11686

[bull....]

this stocks going to get slaughtered. you know why because it was a momentum trade

[2mac]

wow, down almost 10%. good time to add some more or wait for more down?

[nevchev]

Solid result this morning from RYM indicates this sector works well even in challenging times. This is the most resilient in the sector due to its predominantly needs based business model and also has by far the most compelling metrics. Happy holder.
Wishing i had some funds to top up.Agree with you about the ryman result and the sector in general

[JohnnyTheHorse]

Just a few days ago the talk was that'd it'd never be seen under $1 again. It a dangerous game making predictions about the stock market (said in good faith).

As bull says, this things driven by huge momentum will be hit the worst on these kind of days.

[bull....]

no the ryman result was terrible , impairments starting already . oca most at risk. slaughter time coming

[TobyPascoe92]

Felt this coming yesterday, partly due to US Futures but just the amount of negative data and stories coming out yesterday so pulled my holding by close of trading yesterday. Didn't act on my gut feeling during March, not this time. Happy to wait it out for a few days.

[Beagle]

no the ryman result was terrible , impairments starting already . oca most at risk. slaughter time coming

Underlying profit up 6.6% - Is not a terrible result. How are you getting on with your $2.50 AIR N.Z. call. You're so full of B.S. its back on ignore for you.

[bull....]

Underlying profit up 6.6% - Is not a terrible result. How are you getting on with your $2.50 AIR N.Z. call. You're so full of B.S. its back on ignore for you.

i posted i sold out of air at 1.90 odd so im very pleased , you obviously missed the post. oca was a momentum trade thats what you missed. it was never worth $1.

the biggest rallies were in the trash eg air , oca , thl few others last mth now they will sell off back to more reasonable levels

[Caesius]

How much respect does anyone give the Direct Broking DCF calculator for companies like this? Going by what is says fair value from a purely DCF basis should be a bit lower than we are now. I guess with the extra COVID risk that could mean the SP sits a good deal lower than the 86 cps.

11687

[nevchev]

I love it when the trolls come out from under there rocks.Gives me a chance to throw stones at them to get them away from the fire!!!

[bull....]

I love it when the trolls come out from under there rocks.Gives me a chance to throw stones at them to get them away from the fire!!!

the only thing your get is steam rolled by the slaughter of people running for the exit

[nevchev]

the only thing your get is steam rolled by the slaughter of people running for the exit

Shouldn't you be at school.English would be something i recommend

[Caesius]

How much respect does anyone give the Direct Broking DCF calculator for companies like this? Going by what is says fair value from a purely DCF basis should be a bit lower than we are now. I guess with the extra COVID risk that could mean the SP sits a good deal lower than the 86 cps.

11687

Although looking at the 5 year chart, the SP hasn't spent much time under $1, so that really makes the DCF irrelevant.

[King1212]

Too many newbies joined the club....fundies cashed out...so..will see down to 70 ish again

[Cadalac123]

hilarious one red day following "slaughter" on nasdaq and dow, and everyones fundamental analysis of OCA has suddenly changed.

[youngatheart]

Nah. The tide is turning now. Sp is now heading back up :)

[allfromacell]

hilarious one red day following slaughter on nasdaq and dow, and everyones fundamental analysis of OCA has suddenly changed.

Not everyone, I'm sure I'm not alone in topping up today. Got my fill at $0.90.

[CD_CHCH]

Not everyone, I'm sure I'm not alone in topping up today. Got my fill at $0.90.

I also jumped in at $0.90 - seems a very reasonable price to me

[Bjauck]

no the ryman result was terrible , impairments starting already . oca most at risk. slaughter time coming Seriously? I must have been reading a different report. Impairments were expected. However underlying profit and dividend up.

SP is down in line with the broader market. So far, that is not too bad compared with the pasting that the Listed Retirement shares took back in March.

I note Kerr said ""The most important thing for us was to continue to keep COVID-19 out and to look after our 11,600 residents and 6,000 staff. We have been successful so far, but we take nothing for granted" and I think that is also the case with OCA. That for me underlines the attitude in NZ that will appeal to many looking for an appealing and safe retirement community .

[thegreatestben]

Filled my boots at ~.93c before the rise, thought about some more but should probably keep some cash. Wild ride this morning, still in black overall.

[Cadalac123]

Seriously? I must have been reading a different report. Impairments were expected. However underlying profit and dividend up.

SP is down in line with the broader market. So far, that is not too bad compared with the pasting that the Listed Retirement shares took back in March.

I note Kerr said ""The most important thing for us was to continue to keep COVID-19 out and to look after our 11,600 residents and 6,000 staff. We have been successful so far, but we take nothing for granted" and I think that is also the case with OCA. That for me underlines the attitude in NZ that will appeal to many looking for an appealing and safe retirement community .

This is basically the bias a lot of people demonstrate. The report or their hypothesis on the stock is good until the shareprice changes, and somehow the shareprice fluctuating influences how the companies report reads the next day

[bull....]

Seriously? I must have been reading a different report. Impairments were expected. However underlying profit and dividend up.

SP is down in line with the broader market. So far, that is not too bad compared with the pasting that the Listed Retirement shares took back in March.

I note Kerr said ""The most important thing for us was to continue to keep COVID-19 out and to look after our 11,600 residents and 6,000 staff. We have been successful so far, but we take nothing for granted" and I think that is also the case with OCA. That for me underlines the attitude in NZ that will appeal to many looking for an appealing and safe retirement community .

impairments were expected lol thats a new spin on it. most all property is being impaired now only because of covid. so ryman new this was happening in advance lol

[nevchev]

Not everyone, I'm sure I'm not alone in topping up today. Got my fill at $0.90.
Lucky bugger.if i had the funds available i would have been in like flyn!Well done

[bottomfeeder]

I managed to get 8k at 89. But had thoughts that it may go down lower. The market is very nervous. WTF.

[winner69]

No worries ..it’ll end the day in the green

Well done you guys who were quick of the mark and got heaps more

[youngatheart]

Dow Futures looking like it'll open UP tonight. So this quick crash may have just been a blip....
https://money.cnn.com/data/premarket/

[t.rexjr]

Shorters taking advantage of the nervousness. Set up late yesterday, dumped on opening and covered straight away. Money flow still ^^^

[Beagle]

Talk of "slaughter" and "massacre" this morning is entirely inappropriate emotive fearmongering and extremely distasteful in my opinion.

[youngatheart]

Talk of "slaughter" and "massacre" this morning is entirely inappropriate emotive bull****. I am going to give negative rep to anyone who used those words this morning and encourage others to do the same.

I agree. What I found most distasteful was the almost psychotic glee with which he pitched it... It's never pleasant to lose money despite taking all precautions - these black swan events are by nature not anticipateable events...

[Joshuatree]

I think a few people here should be binned for a while encouraging others to place negative rep on other posters. MODS PLEASE ACTION THIS. A very slippery slope allowing this sort of behaviour.

[nevchev]

I agree. What I found most distasteful was the almost psychotic glee with which he pitched it... It's never pleasant to lose money despite taking all precautions - these black swan events are by nature not anticipateable events...
I always give thanks that im in no way affiliated with these sort of people.I give thanks i was born into the family i have and not had to endure been raised by someone like that.

[Beagle]

The people that need binning are those that encourage pandemonium with the use of words like slaughter and massacre.

[bull....]

come this time next year if OCA trading at 40c again (punting of course) i would call that a slaughter by the market for those that brought recently wouldnt you. guess time will tell if im correct.

[macduffy]

come this time next year if OCA trading at 40c again (punting of course) i would call that a slaughter by the market for those that brought recently wouldnt you. guess time will tell if im correct.

Is that punting or predicting?

[bull....]

obviously some people on here need educating in market lingo

slaughter is from the saying

Bulls make money, bears make money, pigs get slaughtered

[Beagle]

I agree. What I found most distasteful was the almost psychotic glee with which he pitched it... It's never pleasant to lose money despite taking all precautions - these black swan events are by nature not anticipateable events...

That's hits the nail directly on the head.

[bull....]

anyone who takes an opposing view of a stock or dare forbids was short a stock is psychotic lol or heaven forbids takes some joy in there position is distastful oh dare

[dibble]

Perhaps you could just think about your wording a little more....

[winner69]

obviously some people on here need educating in market lingo

slaughter is from the saying

Bulls make money, bears make money, pigs get

slaughtered

Market lingo/jargon full of bulls and bears and about killings and getting burnt and getting slaughtered etc etc etc

Quite a colourful place

[Entrep]

There has been plenty of unwarranted vitriol directed at bears over the last several weeks, including gloating about potential lost money (if short) and/or lost gains (if not invested).

As above, what bull said is as per a very well known market phrase.

[Beagle]

Not everyone, I'm sure I'm not alone in topping up today. Got my fill at $0.90.


I also jumped in at $0.90 - seems a very reasonable price to me

Congrats on holding your nerve against the rampage of vitriolic fearmongering. You deserve your reward, well done.

[bottomfeeder]

Nothing has changed. The mega inflationary pressures yet to come will show good value for those retirement stocks that are at less than nta in particular.

[Waltzing]

i was sitting on the pontoon mucking about with the f15 italian rig today and whatching my orders sit on placed on direct broking and by the time my order was processed it at .94... oh well , also missed selling mcy at 478 after a buy at 450. But the MCY order sat there for a long time before it met the market... gave up after a few more buys...Hope this happens regularly but i dont think FED POWELL is going to make the same mistake twice... a new boy in the job...

[nevchev]

i was sitting on the pontoon mucking about with the f15 italian rig today and whatching my orders sit on placed on direct broking and by the time my order was processed it at .94... oh well , also missed selling mcy at 478 after a buy at 450. But the MCY order sat there for a long time before it met the market... gave up after a few more buys...Hope this happens regularly but i dont think FED POWELL is going to make the same mistake twice... a new boy in the job...

Yer,incredibly slow.In a business where seconds count.the entire NZ system needs to be looked at.It can be painfull to watch at times

[Nigel]

Yep, I had a buy order at 89c today... which sat there for what seemed like several minutes as other orders got filled at 88c. Very frustrating.

[winner69]

There has been plenty of unwarranted vitriol directed at bears over the last several weeks, including gloating about potential lost money (if short) and/or lost gains (if not invested).

As above, what bull said is as per a very well known market phrase.

People are getting so precious these days

Like apparently some want a Spike Milligan statue to be pulled down because he was a racist

World ‘s gone nuts ...that’s a worry

[bottomfeeder]

Yep, I had a buy order at 89c today... which sat there for what seemed like several minutes as other orders got filled at 88c. Very frustrating.
I know that feeling, I had my buy order in at 89 for a half an hour, then saw the market drop to 87, so I changed order to 87. Then market went to 90 or so, then I went back to 89. I don't know what was slack, the quotes or the orders. I put a buy order for WBC for 18.40, watched the market drop to 18.10, so I cancelled the order, a half hour later it disappeared, when the market went to 19.00. Just so hard to do anything when Direct just has so many delays, caused by nzx, or anything else.

[nevchev]

I think the problems can be traced thru to the nzx.Very poor service.They claim there shouldn't be a problem with electronic transactions... Yer,right

[Cadalac123]

ASB Securities was also bad today.

Beyond ridiculous.
Once I tried selling a stock and the latency meant a significant difference in profit. Why is this even an issue in NZ wtf?

[iceman]

I think this thread has become rather sad. Lots of ramping, up and down and people getting highly emotional and irrational. Just take a deep breath everyone and show tolerance of divergent views. That´s what this site is for.
I´m happily holding some OCA, whatever happened today will happen next week or next month for that matter. Listen to the PM and be KIND guys and gals and all will be cool.. Have a nice weekend.

[Cadalac123]

I think this thread has become rather sad. Lots of ramping, up and down and people getting highly emotional and irrational. Just take a deep breath everyone and show tolerance of divergent views. That´s what this site is for.
I´m happily holding some OCA, whatever happened today will happen next week or next month for that matter. Listen to the PM and be KIND guys and gals and all will be cool.. Have a nice weekend.

If you are holding long-term, retirement stocks are a haven. No idea why you wouldn't just continually top-up at the notable market related dips. Do people not do any fundamental analysis anymore, like actually look at the balance sheets, look at the financial ratios and determine whether there is a rationale change explaining the stock price ? If not you'd think topping up at a "dip" would be pretty logical.

Unless there's a shortage of old people anytime soon, I don't think any of the companies are going to go bankrupt. Share price appreciation wise sure none will be a 10 bagger in the span of 2 years or something but heck you can make a lot from divi's and dip top ups.

DYOR anyway
Disc: No longer holding OCA

[iceman]

If you are holding long-term, retirement stocks are a haven. No idea why you wouldn't just continually top-up at the notable market related dips. Do people not do any fundamental analysis anymore, like actually look at the balance sheets, look at the financial ratios and determine whether there is a rationale change explaining the stock price ? If not you'd think topping up at a "dip" would be pretty logical.

Unless there's a shortage of old people anytime soon, I don't think any of the companies are going to go bankrupt. Share price appreciation wise sure none will be a 10 bagger in the span of 2 years or something but heck you can make a lot from divi's and dip top ups.

DYOR anyway

I am a long term investor in general. I have been topping up a lot in the last 3-4 weeks after some extensive and diligent (I hope) FA, just not in OCA. Happy with my current holding and no intention of top ups of OCA at current levels.

[Baa_Baa]

Once you’ve decided to buy an asset for long term hold, for income or to grow your holdings through DRP, and assuming the company is not in trouble, then any opportunity, especially below NTA, to increase your Holding seems like a good idea for long term wealth and income.

Gltah

[Cyclical]

If you are holding long-term, retirement stocks are a haven. No idea why you wouldn't just continually top-up at the notable market related dips. Do people not do any fundamental analysis anymore, like actually look at the balance sheets, look at the financial ratios and determine whether there is a rationale change explaining the stock price ? If not you'd think topping up at a "dip" would be pretty logical.

Unless there's a shortage of old people anytime soon, I don't think any of the companies are going to go bankrupt. Share price appreciation wise sure none will be a 10 bagger in the span of 2 years or something but heck you can make a lot from divi's and dip top ups.

DYOR anyway
Disc: No longer holding OCA

You were selling it so well, until the disclaimer bit :D

[tommy_d]

I know that feeling, I had my buy order in at 89 for a half an hour, then saw the market drop to 87, so I changed order to 87. Then market went to 90 or so, then I went back to 89. I don't know what was slack, the quotes or the orders. I put a buy order for WBC for 18.40, watched the market drop to 18.10, so I cancelled the order, a half hour later it disappeared, when the market went to 19.00. Just so hard to do anything when Direct just has so many delays, caused by nzx, or anything else.
interestingly, limit bids placed via sharesies seem to be visible on the order list within under a minute every time. Suspect the retail impact due to sharesies on numbers of trades is showing up failure by established players to invest in software. You might have to change platforms and tell direct your reason

[Cyclical]

interestingly, limit bids placed via sharesies seem to be visible on the order list within under a minute every time.

Not in my experience. I’ve had plenty an instance where Sharesies have been too slow to get my bids on market. I think the real issue mostly lies with NZX. Certainly the advent of Sharesies and all these tiny trades going through won’t be helping. One thing that was evident in March though was ASB’s platform was at times slow with it being difficult to login and painful to navigate around the website...can’t point the finger at NZX for that.

[nevchev]

This is from an article published in late April
Not good enough: The NZX is once again under fire from brokers frustrated at ongoing “technical issues” in recent days that have delayed orders from being executed on a timely basis. ASB Securities displayed a notice on its website yesterday apologising for the slow execution of trades and blaming the NZX for the problem. The issue once again highlights ongoing under-investment by the stock exchange operator in keeping its technology platforms updated which has been further exacerbated when trading volumes spike as they have done in recent days. Newsroom’s calls to NZX CEO Mark Peterson yesterday seeking comment went unanswered.

On notice: A spokesperson for the Financial Markets Authority said they had been briefed by the NZX on the issue. “We understand that rectifying the issue is their highest priority and the NZX Board is looking at any additional processes or governance necessary to ensure it is fully mitigated and not repeated. We are satisfied with this approach and will remain informed by the NZX, as they progress the resolution of these matters.”

[Jerry]

The NZX is hardly a level playing field. Electronic transfers from some traders go through in milli-seconds and DirectBroking, NZX, ASB clients are second class citizens and have a twenty minute hiatus.

[RTM]

The NZX is hardly a level playing field. Electronic transfers from some traders go through in milli-seconds and DirectBroking, NZX, ASB clients are second class citizens and have a twenty minute hiatus.

Yes....it seems odd that we have to put up with this "market place" while I can sit and watch the USA prices on YAHOO changing very quickly and in real time. So the model is there for them, but no desire to share it with the average punter.

[Sideshow Bob]

Would be good to get back to OCA? Trading/NZX issues should be on another thread. Cheers

[BlackPeter]

The NZX is hardly a level playing field. Electronic transfers from some traders go through in milli-seconds and DirectBroking, NZX, ASB clients are second class citizens and have a twenty minute hiatus.


Yes....it seems odd that we have to put up with this "market place" while I can sit and watch the USA prices on YAHOO changing very quickly and in real time. So the model is there for them, but no desire to share it with the average punter.

Not quite.

Anybody paying for the data gets them without delay. And if you look at small retail investors - anybody who is e.g. with Direct Broking and made at least one trade in the last three months gets the market depth as well in real time (and without pay).

There might be other brokers offering a similar deal - not sure.

[RTM]

Not quite.

Anybody paying for the data gets them without delay. And if you look at small retail investors - anybody who is e.g. with Direct Broking and made at least one trade in the last three months gets the market depth as well in real time (and without pay).

There might be other brokers offering a similar deal - not sure.

Don't want to get another growling....Sort of agree....but to compare what Direct Broking serves up compared with YAHOO Finance is like a 20 years ago view of the world (DB) compared with an up to date presentation of the data (Yahoo). Have you set up a portfolio of USA shares in Yahoo BP ? I won't even start to go into the limitations of the Direct Broking platform on this thread.....

[BlackPeter]

Don't want to get another growling....Sort of agree....but to compare what Direct Broking serves up compared with YAHOO Finance is like a 20 years ago view of the world (DB) compared with an up to date presentation of the data (Yahoo). Have you set up a portfolio of USA shares in Yahoo BP ? I won't even start to go into the limitations of the Direct Broking platform on this thread.....

Neither invested in nor trading US shares ... and not trying to sell Direct Broking as the best possible platform either (though I got the impression that under the two discount brokers I am aware off serving the NZX they are the better one :);

I was just trying to clarify that it is not impossible for retail investors to have real time information about the NZX and used Direct Broking as an example.

Otherwise - using yahoo as well as Direct Broking ... and lets face it - they both have their Plusses and Minusses and I don't think they are in any way equivalent ... but this is clearly a discussion for a separate thread.

[Beagle]

I have started a new thread in the off market section to discuss trading platform issues here https://www.sharetrader.co.nz/showthread.php?11832-NZX-trading-platform-issues&p=822405#post822405

I agree the time taken for orders to go to market is completely unacceptable at times but that's not relevant to the OCA thread.

[Waltzing]

more movement in DOW futures get your OCA orders in early? starting to look like a re test of .90

[TobyPascoe92]

more movement in DOW futures get your OCA orders in early?

Yeah, happy observer on the sidelines at the moment. USA has had five straight day of rising cases, as well as the rest of the world. Have learnt what the likes of sharesies participants do when the Futures and then US Trading goes south (especially with OCA) - they run for the hills. Expecting some more good buying in the next few weeks.

[bottomfeeder]

I am reluctant to sell MET and OCA, even though I would clock in some serious money. I see them as two of the best investments for the inflationary pressures coming, and the coming recession. I am even prepared for the reduction in SP, when the second wave hits, when I will top up more and more. If we don't open up our borders, and that is where the second wave will come from, the Government will continue to spend and spend. It will be like the Zimbabwi currency a few years back. The government needs to stop controlling interest rates, or money will become an investment no one will want to hold. Already I am not renewing any Term Deposits coming up. I am sure many others will do the same thing.

[RTM]

Yeah, happy observer on the sidelines at the moment. USA has had five straight day of rising cases, as well as the rest of the world. Have learnt what the likes of sharesies participants do when the Futures and then US Trading goes south (especially with OCA) - they run for the hills. Expecting some more good buying in the next few weeks.

The rest of the world is going to learn to live with COVID while we are going to be paralysed by our cleanliness.(Were we to successful ?) They will manipulate the social controls needed, distancing, hand washing etc, so that their health systems are not overwhelmed as they were at the start. And life will go on except (mostly) for the elderly who have underlying health conditions (I am possibly in that category). A new normal will emerge which copes with COVID in the community until a vaccine is developed. Maybe we are not going to see another COVID based drop of significant measure. Now Donald Trump, BLM etc...well, thats another story.

[Beagle]

https://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/news/article.cfm?c_id=3&objectid=12339836
Real estate booming, no worries, medium prices up 7% in N.Z., (same for Auckland) compared to a year ago. No worries, very good for this sector and especially MET with Auckland house prices also very strong. (Volume down as I am sure everyone expected due to the circumstances)

[RTM]

https://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/news/article.cfm?c_id=3&objectid=12339836
Real estate booming, no worries, medium prices up 7% in N.Z., (same for Auckland) compared to a year ago. No worries, very good for this sector and especially MET with Auckland house prices also very strong. (Volume down as I am sure everyone expected due to the circumstances)

Saw something similar re the USA.

“This follows fresh data last week from Hoya Capital Housing Index component Redfin (RDFN) which showed that home buying demand is now up a stunning 22% from pre-pandemic levels after seven straight weeks of gains. The brokerage firm noted that "mortgage rates near 3% and inventory shortages drove prices up 7% and have increased competition for homes... rising prices and the freedom to work from home are causing buyers to reconsider their options." Consistent with the "post-pandemic urban exodus" theory, Redfin noted that website searches for cities under 50,000 people and rural areas are growing five times faster than pageviews for cities with more than one million people.”

https://seekingalpha.com/article/4353656-reopening-rally-sputters-on-second-wave-fears

[Beagle]

I am reluctant to sell MET and OCA, even though I would clock in some serious money. I see them as two of the best investments for the inflationary pressures coming, and the coming recession. I am even prepared for the reduction in SP, when the second wave hits, when I will top up more and more. If we don't open up our borders, and that is where the second wave will come from, the Government will continue to spend and spend. It will be like the Zimbabwi currency a few years back. The government needs to stop controlling interest rates, or money will become an investment no one will want to hold. Already I am not renewing any Term Deposits coming up. I am sure many others will do the same thing.

You definitely are not alone. I had funds on TDP with TSB on 90 days at just 2%. New rate is 1.1%...No chocolate fish prize for guessing what I did with my funds, see WHS thread. When finance companies masquerading as banks, (TSB is not in this category) start only offering 2% on long term deposits safe companies like OCA at 5% should now be considered as very safe high yield in my opinion.
RYM are said to have incurred $27m in costs due to Covid 19 and the market is clearly happy to look through that as per the share price reaction. I expect the market will be happy to look through the Covid 19 impact on OCA too. Agree with your post, especially the highlighted parts and also have plenty of dry powder for any irrational share price reaction to any future perceived major risk to this sector. I think this sector has proved they're as safe as houses.

[Waltzing]

If House prices do hold up, very surprising then OCA will surely be a very rewarding investment and will MR B return to have a view on SUM other Shares in this sector. also chart showing a re test of .90?

[Beagle]

I wouldn't pay a premium to NTA (about $5) for SUM with OCA and MET where they are. SUM have some major issues to deal with in regard to slow moving stock. RYM's expansion over the ditch really slowed their growth for a few years, will history repeat for SUM or will Julian's decision to embark on land banking at an unprecedented scale prove to be a master stroke of genius ? Only time will tell but at this stage I think OCA with the vast majority of their future developments already consented, (SUM have what could best be described as a chequered track record with their consenting process's) and a more needs based focus, together with better development margins and considerably more attractive yield and much cheaper PE, looks considerably more attractive to me, especially from a risk - reward perspective. Around 60% of SUM's underlying profit came from development activities...wonder how that will go, going forward from here ? Hmmm

[Entrep]

Land stocks massacred overnight

11686

I've stated several times that OCA is absolutely correlated to these US property shares, let's see how they go this coming week

[bottomfeeder]

Someone must be following me on the contrary principle. When I buy it goes down 3 cents. I will warn everyone in future. Haha.

[bull....]

I've stated several times that OCA is absolutely correlated to these US property shares, let's see how they go this coming week

correct OCA is just a property stock , aged care is just icing on the property trading gig

[winner69]

correct OCA is just a property stock , aged care is just icing on the property trading gig

.... or a drag on property profits

[bull....]

.... or a drag on property profits

there last annual report shows not much profit in aged care. all the OCA fans better hope the property gig holds up

[nevchev]

Someone must be following me on the contrary principle. When I buy it goes down 3 cents. I will warn everyone in future. Haha.
Hahaha,we've all had that feeling at one time or another.Dow futures not pretty but in times like this you just got to go with your gut.

[Waltzing]

there will be stocks to trade... just like friday... vaccines are coming fast .. and thank you MR B for that view on SUM other stocks... i almost sold out thought at 1.03..4 .... i did think a pullback was on the cards... but i cant see it going below 80, unless they cut the dividend? In the back of my mind is a small cut to the dividend though and it does happen.


Lennar beats - the good numbers from the Florida company.

https://www.google.com/search?q=lennar+stock+price&rlz=1C1CHBF_en-GBNZ875NZ875&oq=lennar+stock+price&aqs=chrome..69i57.6322j0j7&sourceid=chrome&ie=UTF-8

[Entrep]

Where I am watching

11704

[Waltzing]

EQ result = assets prices bubbles ... this was hilarious and this is what i imagined would always temp a government ..

and why we are likely to see a re run of 2009-2019.

https://www.interest.co.nz/opinion/105542/why-government-needs-start-paying-attention-where-money-being-pumped-economy-qe-going

"He has previously said he isn’t keen on breaking away from the convention (https://www.interest.co.nz/bonds/105275/robertson-has-no-intention-getting-rbnz-print-money-pay-specific-government-policies) and enabling the RBNZ to buy bonds direct from Treasury with the aim of funding specific government policies, rather than with the aim of meeting its monetary policy mandate. An argument is that this could prevent the money from working its way into the economy via the banking system, which benefits those who own assets."

imagine buying direct!!! its the joke i always tell people... BUY DIRECT... and damn the torpedos... oh imagine the central bankers thinking about this when they did there degrees.. but hey the BOJ and now the FED are buying Direct already... from the market... if you want to go into early retirement and be a beach comer DO IT!!!

and this might be why SUM , MET, OCA and ARV are set to become very nice property price gainer not to mention ARG and GMT and PCT and others in 3 to 5 few years time.

i say BUY DIRECT every time and cut out the middle man!!! After all what would happen it an event that threatened to send civilisation back to 1900's and before... You would have no other choice but to BUY DIRECT.

and people dont forget to SELL!!! This movie wont re run more then twice!!! Although you could argue we have been in the same movie re run since 2001!

Thats 2001 - 2008, 2009 - 2019, 2020 - 20xx?

[macduffy]

And have you only just realised this, W ?

;)

[Waltzing]

Is there statistical certainty that this round of QE will produce the exact same result as last time?

Im sure a lot of investors hope it does.

Never in the history of the reserve bank that i know of and someone can show us the money. Has the RBNZ taken a bond directly from treasury.

Neither am i aware that the RBNZ has ever done QE on NZ bonds.

This version of the game has never been played out in NZ before.

Realised What? Nothing is certain this time.

[Ggcc]

Looks like some more downward pressure. We may see mid to low 80's again in the near future.

[Beagle]

Looks like some more downward pressure. We may see mid to low 80's again in the near future.

We might see $1.10 on a good result and dividend next month and solid outlook. The sun will come up tomorrow and more older people will get older and need more care. That's the thing about a needs based aged care business. Growing demand for services is as certain as the sun rising tomorrow.

[allfromacell]

I think there are a few nerves about a second wave of Covid in NZ causing some investors to bail.

[peat]

I visited an OCA village in Blenheim on my travels as my partner knew someone from her days spent in that town and wanted to catch up. A lovely residence and setting and needless to say I grilled about the detail and they were very happy and loved the fixed fees. everything was taken care of etc etc....

(Just a bit of anecdotal evidence of happy customer).

[Waltzing]

Im in the MR B camp for the time being even thought i did think it was going to pull back . i think it best to hold for the long run here and prehaps trade it in another porfolio. We always keep our trading portfolios in different entities. Dont forget trusts are also good places to put shares.. (advanced trusts 1995 Chartered Accounting library) , DISC: not a Charter Accountant.

[winner69]

We might see $1.10 on a good result and dividend next month and solid outlook. The sun will come up tomorrow and more older people will get older and need more care. That's the thing about a needs based aged care business. Growing demand for services is as certain as the sun rising tomorrow.

Don’t think it’s certain we will see the sun tomorrow ...maybe just daylight

[Curly]

Recent covid cases affecting share price for sure. Good time to buy if it goes much lower.

[Beagle]

Don’t think it’s certain we will see the sun tomorrow ...maybe just daylight

It was a truly miserable day all day in Auckland yesterday, dark and depressing. Didn't see the sun all day, (but I am sure it did rise :p )... had to remind myself that my mother is right, there's always sunshine after rain.

[winner69]

It was a truly miserable day all day in Auckland yesterday, dark and depressing. Didn't see the sun all day, (but I am sure it did rise :p )... had to remind myself that my mother is right, there's always sunshine after rain.

Why worry
There should be laughter after pain
There should be sunshine after rain
These things have always been the same
So why worry now
Why worry now

Mark Knopfler

[Beagle]

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_03uXQiz6eY

[Joshuatree]

We really really really dont

We Don't Know How Lucky We Are (https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=EwgHGeGxlus)

[Joshuatree]

Oceania theme.I got lucky two days ago ,paddled out to an Orca pod leaving the harbour after the tide turned and they'd eaten a bunch of stingray. Couldnt get quite close enough to have to put new undies on as they got to adeeper channel and increased speed. Huge male and a baby in the pod. I got lucky. Have a lucky weekend.

[Beagle]

Oceania theme.I got lucky two days ago ,paddled out to an Orca pod leaving the harbour after the tide turned and they'd eaten a bunch of stingray. Couldnt get quite close enough to have to put new undies on as they got to adeeper channel and increased speed. Huge male and a baby in the pod. I got lucky. Have a lucky weekend.

Its awesome when you can engage with nature like that. Reminds me of the time we were in the Bay of Islands off Roberton Island and came across a massive school of dolphins, including young ones with their mothers...had them playing in our boats bow wave, set the boat to autopilot and went around to the bow and leaned over and I could almost touch them...Just the other day I was thinking that the Sands at Browns Bay would be an awesome village right on the beach for those wanting to keep enjoying nautical activities in their retirement. A photo says a thousand words http://nzx-prod-s7fsd7f98s.s3-website-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/attachments/OCA/347503/315683.pdf
That's got to be the best village in all of Auckland for that sort of thing.

[justakiwi]

Wow. That experience is right at the top of my bucket list. A day you will never forget!


Oceania theme.I got lucky two days ago ,paddled out to an Orca pod leaving the harbour after the tide turned and they'd eaten a bunch of stingray. Couldnt get quite close enough to have to put new undies on as they got to adeeper channel and increased speed. Huge male and a baby in the pod. I got lucky. Have a lucky weekend.

[Waltzing]

bucket lists, never really understood what they were... buckets you take to the beach, a bucket in the garden? another one of those silly sayings... bucket list at the garden shop? good support at .90's ... also good support in the auction on GMT... property.. solid as the last quake..

[davflaws]

bucket lists, never really understood what they were...

My bucket list is a list of things I want to do before I kick the bucket.

[davflaws]

Don’t think it’s certain we will see the sun tomorrow ...maybe just daylight

Thermofusion reactions on a stellar scale produce radiation in the visible spectrum on an ongoing basis.

[Brain]

New OCA relativity theory.........OCA and PLX SP's in synch.

Spooky! ;)

back in sync again at 94

[Beagle]

Why worry
There should be laughter after pain
There should be sunshine after rain
These things have always been the same
So why worry now
Why worry now

Mark Knopfler

He's still got it, what a legend ! We get to decide if we want to all be brothers in legal arms against EQT next month. Good way to end the work week... https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2R2Qtf3UeL0

[Curly]

Luv Knophler. The best.
Oh by the way this is an OCA thread.
To bad about the orcas, covid and Jacinda.

[nevchev]

Im on the barrier and fished commercially for over 30 years.orca eat dolphins!!!

[winner69]

Luv Knophler. The best.
Oh by the way this is an OCA thread.
To bad about the orcas, covid and Jacinda.

Yep ..the OrCA thread ......but a bit of diversionary banter is good for us

[justakiwi]

A bucket list is a wish list of things you want to do before you "kick the bucket." Seeing whales in person is at the top of mine.


bucket lists, never really understood what they were... buckets you take to the beach, a bucket in the garden? another one of those silly sayings... bucket list at the garden shop? good support at .90's ... also good support in the auction on GMT... property.. solid as the last quake..

[Baa_Baa]

A bucket list is a wish list of things you want to do before you "kick the bucket." Seeing whales in person is at the top of mine.

I ticked off saving a whale, windsurfing with Orca and huge pods of dolphins, flying fish, frolicking seals, massive schools of kawai and kingfish, all well before I was an OCA shareholder. The thing about a bucket list is actually doing it, before you’re a resident of OCA. 😉

[Leftfield]

back in sync again at 94

Spooky! lol, if this was a two horse race my money would be on PLX, but always nice to have a dollar each way. Well positioned!

[Waltzing]

Back on topic. Thanks for pointing out "BL". But my main focus here is PL , YTD, LY and LLY. I am hoping that the next set of statements are clear and do not include any contra accounts for development and MR B and others can clearly see a transparent set of financials.

[winner69]

Back on topic. Thanks for pointing out "BL". But my main focus here is PL , YTD, LY and LLY. I am hoping that the next set of statements are clear and do not include any contra accounts for development and MR B and others can clearly see a transparent set of financials.


Hoping is ok but hoping won’t happen.

With a new man maybe come with new tricks:eek2:

The value is in the story ...not the balance sheet

[Beagle]

The dog is exceptionally highly motivated to get his snout really deep into the financial statements. Just as well seeing as they're so complicated.

I am expecting quite significant one-off covid 19 costs and additionally one-off covid 19 reduction in sales of independent living units due to the lockdown, (care suites could still be sold during the lockdown).

Extracting the (hopefully one-off) Covid effect from the already extremely complicated financial statements, staying objective when I have such a substantial shareholding and forming a view on future maintainable underlying profit is not going to be an easy or quick exercise by any stretch of the imagination.

As Winner suggests, a lot is about the long term transformational growth story OCA is on. I'm holding long term so I will be taking a long term view.

[winner69]

Watch with sparkling eyes the whole world around you because the greatest secrets are always hidden in the most unlikely places. Those who don’t believe in magic you will never find it.

Ronald Dahl said this ....and maybe he was thinking about Oceania when he came up with it

Value the story

[King1212]

5 weeks to result ....

[Beagle]

Watch with sparkling eyes the whole world around you because the greatest secrets are always hidden in the most unlikely places. Those who don’t believe in magic you will never find it.

Ronald Dahl said this ....and maybe he was thinking about Oceania when he came up with it

Value the story

There's a lot in the story. A story where vulnerable old people are really well cared for and treated with dignity and respect. First class standards of care and facilities.
Matters heaps to the residents and their family members. No ESG concerns with this company which enjoys a stellar reputation in the industry.

[winner69]

There's a lot in the story. A story where vulnerable old people are really well cared for and treated with dignity and respect. First class standards of care and facilities.
Matters heaps to the residents and their family members. No ESG concerns with this company which enjoys a stellar reputation in the industry.

You are on the way.... like in the Damadoran approach.

Firstly develop your story for the business ..how it will develop over time. Test that story ....is it possible and plausible.

Only then convert the story into drivers of value. Your numbers need to be backed up by your story.

Then you connect the drivers of value to a valuation.....what’s the business worth (and don’t cheat and use relative PEs or reported NTAs to do this)

Believe your base story but develop it over time.

The value is in the story.

[Waltzing]

yes stories are great but i come from a family of military, lawyers and accountants... show me the money.

[winner69]

yes stories are great but i come from a family of military, lawyers and accountants... show me the money..

You poor bugger :eek2::scared:;):p:cool:

The point of the ‘story’ is that it gives a value (money)

[Baa_Baa]

If there’s a repeat of the COVID Fire sale I’ll be unwavering in my buying! can’t have too many some people say 😉

[Paradox]

The dog is exceptionally highly motivated to get his snout really deep into the financial statements. Just as well seeing as they're so complicated.

I am expecting quite significant one-off covid 19 costs and additionally one-off covid 19 reduction in sales of independent living units due to the lockdown, (care suites could still be sold during the lockdown).

Extracting the (hopefully one-off) Covid effect from the already extremely complicated financial statements, staying objective when I have such a substantial shareholding and forming a view on future maintainable underlying profit is not going to be an easy or quick exercise by any stretch of the imagination.

As Winner suggests, a lot is about the long term transformational growth story OCA is on. I'm holding long term so I will be taking a long term view.

I'll be commencing a deep dive as well from tomorrow. Having extensively researched Ryman few years ago, hope to glean some similarities in the financial analysis. Why and how are OCA's statements complicated?

Also, curious what long term view you're taking? Am I right that OCA debuted in April 2017 at 80c approx and pre-covid max was circa $1.30, so 17% CAGR?

[winner69]

Oceania a great long term and compelling story

I’m waiting for the next fall back into the 70’s (or lower) when full year results disappoint. First half underlying cash flows were pretty shocking and that possibly will continue into second half.

[Waltzing]

In normal time a financial advisor might have a sell on it but even at 3.5% DIV on the underlying assets you would have to be mad to sell. where you can only dream about a 3% TD. I think yes but even if there is selling how many will scramble to buy. You wont see 70 for long. It will be a mad dash to buy. These arnt normal times and you cant apply FA at 5% DIV as normal and a sell. Its just like buying GOLD but better. 70 or lower who would sell at that unless you bought everything at 40... Madness to sell even if NO profit for the period or even a LOSS. Downing ramping?

good support on friday afternoon. Over 1 million for the day and plenty of support down to 90. The market understand value in bricks and land and in a brand that covers many sectors of a market in one. Hotels and health and property all rolled into one entity; And many Locations!

[Joshuatree]

I
Also, curious what long term view you're taking? Am I right that OCA debuted in April 2017 at 80c approx and pre-covid max was circa $1.30, so 17% CAGR?

Beagle will be "longterm" until something else turns up thats more tempting, nothing wrong with that ,after all dogs are led around by their noses looking for new temptations to lift a leg at(buy and own);)

[Beagle]

I'll be commencing a deep dive as well from tomorrow. Having extensively researched Ryman few years ago, hope to glean some similarities in the financial analysis. Why and how are OCA's statements complicated?

Also, curious what long term view you're taking? Am I right that OCA debuted in April 2017 at 80c approx and pre-covid max was circa $1.30, so 17% CAGR?
Your first question, have a deep dive look, you'll see.

Long term means exactly that in the ordinary interpretation of that expression.

Fact is as others have alluded too, we live in a yield starved world where the average term deposit is now on offer for just under 2% and according to Mark Lister of Craigs at this point with all the companies presently withholding dividends the average yield of the NZX50 is just 3.6%. In that context the 4.9 cent annual dividend OCA is capable of paying gives an excellent yield of 5.21% at Friday's closing price of 94 cents. This is very comfortably the best yield of this growth sector.

They listed at 79 cents in early 2017, hit a peak of $1.39 in late 2019 and a low of just 38 cents in the depths of the Covid 19 panic in late March 2020.

[Beagle]

Oceania a great long term and compelling story

I’m waiting for the next fall back into the 70’s (or lower) when full year results disappoint. First half underlying cash flows were pretty shocking and that possibly will continue into second half.

http://nzx-prod-s7fsd7f98s.s3-website-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/attachments/OCA/347503/315683.pdf Cash flow $57m up 21%. The market has demonstrated with the RYM result it is well and truly prepared to look through hopefully one-off Covid 19 costs.

[King1212]

Ei...master winner sold out n tried to ramp down to buy in ehhh??? Cheeky fellow eh.....

[Waltzing]

yes i also sold some at over 104 in one portfolio but hold in another. i have tempted to sell and hope for an entry point under 70 as my avge in the long term portfolio was 72-78. But i would need a sub 60 to make it worth while and how long would you have to buy in? the sub 50 did not last long and i found on the those crash days i could not get an order moving in the system and gave up.Every time there is a good sell off the system bends under the pressure as buyers swoop in!!!

[Baa_Baa]

Oceania a great long term and compelling story

I’m waiting for the next fall back into the 70’s (or lower) when full year results disappoint. First half underlying cash flows were pretty shocking and that possibly will continue into second half.

Seems a lot of folks who have something to say don’t get ‘long term’ . Traders lurking around every corner. Each to their own, every time this gets beaten to a pulp is a time to buy more. To hell with portfolio weighing.

[macduffy]

Seems a lot of folks who have something to say don’t get ‘long term’ . Traders lurking around every corner. Each to their own, every time this gets beaten to a pulp is a time to buy more. To hell with portfolio weighing.

This is, after all, "Sharetrader" so we shouldn't be surprised at that orientation. Personally, I'm a long term investor with a tendency to over-diversify but to neglect portolio weightings most of the time.

Holding plenty of OCA.

[Paradox]

Your first question, have a deep dive look, you'll see.
Spent the day reformulating the statements from 2016. So far so good with the Notes to the consolidated statements.

[Waltzing]

Look forward to the up and coming P&L.

[winner69]

Ei...master winner sold out n tried to ramp down to buy in ehhh??? Cheeky fellow eh.....

Wrong your majesty ...no point in buying more (some say topping up) now when cheaper soon.

Pretty bad how much cash they burnt in half one from looking after people (as opposed to building and selling things)

But believe the story

[bull....]

Oceania a great long term and compelling story

I’m waiting for the next fall back into the 70’s (or lower) when full year results disappoint. First half underlying cash flows were pretty shocking and that possibly will continue into second half.

only if theres a market.

as we all know no body knows where covid is going

[forest]

Wrong your majesty ...no point in buying more (some say topping up) now when cheaper soon.

Pretty bad how much cash they burnt in half one from looking after people (as opposed to building and selling things)

But believe the story

Winner what I see is that operating cash inflow for the 1H20 period was nearly $57m, about 21% higher than 1H19.
What exactly is your concern?

[Beagle]

only if theres a market.

as we all know no body knows where covid is going

Oceanians, (oh look I coined a new term !), can be very proud of how well our company has looked after its vulnerable residents and managed the risk so well.
A reminder that all 7 Covid cases are contained within border quarantine facilities and there is no evidence of community transmission. There has been a doubling of army personnel at quarantine facilities according to the Govt.

Like you Forest, I'd like to know what the heck Winner is on about :confused:

[Waltzing]

DISC: i dont always hold this stock but if they can manage the assets i expect to hold over most of the next decade if possible and if a loss over this period the market has not shown that companies are punished unduly for it. I would love to buy at 60 and below but really is the market going to fall for it!

[Paradox]

DISC: i dont always hold this stock but if they can manage the assets i expect to hold over most of the next decade if possible and if a loss over this period the market has not shown that companies are punished unduly for it. I would love to buy at 60 and below but really is the market going to fall for it!

I had a quick look and could be wrong, but FY2019 was also a loss in operating income compared to ‘18 but masked overall by a property revaluation of $46m.

[bull....]

I had a quick look and could be wrong, but FY2019 was also a loss in operating income compared to ‘18 but masked overall by a property revaluation of $46m.

they only make serious money from upgrading there care beds and flicking them for a profit at a substantially increased price. if pricing falls and costs go up it makes there model less profitable

[macduffy]

only if theres a market.

as we all know no body knows where covid is going

We could take that attitude with any stock, any time. And we've never invest in anything - and wouldn't have to waste time making dire predictions on Sharetrader.

;)

[winner69]

Winner what I see is that operating cash inflow for the 1H20 period was nearly $57m, about 21% higher than 1H19.
What exactly is your concern?

Operating cash flow includes what they get for property sales and doesn’t include what they spent on property related things.

Take out property related cash flows and you are left with a proxy for what cash flow was generated (or not) from looking after the oldies.

Half one this was negative $22m ....usually it’s only slightly negative .....so a huge jump ...and this was pre-Covid......might have been a timing difference or a one off and reverse itself in second half but who knows.

We know stuff all made from looking after oldies and it’s all about property but wouldnt want another $20m cash burnt looking after people ....that’s what I’m getting at.

That’s how I look at the financials ....show me where the cash comes from and where it goes ....a methodology that I find works with others in the sector.

[bull....]

We could take that attitude with any stock, any time. And we've never invest in anything - and wouldn't have to waste time making dire predictions on Sharetrader.

;)

its not a prediction , its a risk which prudent investors would factor in. you sound like you have trouble understanding the difference

[forest]

Operating cash flow includes what they get for property sales and doesn’t include what they spent on property related things.

Take out property related cash flows and you are left with a proxy for what cash flow was generated (or not) from looking after the oldies.

Half one this was negative $22m ....usually it’s only slightly negative .....so a huge jump ...and this was pre-Covid......might have been a timing difference or a one off and reverse itself in second half but who knows.

We know stuff all made from looking after oldies and it’s all about property but wouldnt want another $20m cash burnt looking after people ....that’s what I’m getting at.

That’s how I look at the financials ....show me where the cash comes from and where it goes ....a methodology that I find works with others in the sector.

From page 7 2020 interim report, money is being made on care.

The Care segment generated total revenue for the first half of $81.3m, representing 84.2% of total operating revenue, and underlying EBITDA of $9.5m. Adding $8.9m of care suite development and resale gains over the period (currently classified in the Village segment), our total aged care related underlying EBITDA of $18.4m was $0.1m higher than the prior corresponding period

I think you expect capital investments to appear in the operational cash flow segment, but my understanding is that it is standard for this to be under the cash flow from investment segment.

I see it as a positive that in the latest interim report cash inflow from operations increased by 21% while cash outflow from investing activities reduced slightly by app 4%.

[Joshuatree]

I cant wait for winners reply and im not even holding any directly:D.Thanks all re reading the entrails.

[winner69]

Yep forest read all that stuff ...and all the stuff in presentations ...and even listened to a bit of Earl

But follow the cash

From the Operating Cash Flow (the $57.0m) leave out the $80.0m net they got for ORA sales you get negative $23.0m

This is Receipts from residents for vilage and care fees less employees and suppliers less rent less interest ...to me that’s the cash cost of looking after and caring for residents. The rest of the cash flow statements are all property related

So following the money $23m cash gone in H1 ....last year it was ~$4m ...big diffference.

You do it your way ...I’ll look at it my way ....and no doubt beagle and mav will do it their way.

[King1212]

Crap....Master winner bailed out..!! better sell too...more than 500k holdings...

[winner69]

Crap....Master winner bailed out..!! better sell too...more than 500k holdings...

I told you earlier your majesty I haven’t bailed ...just that I’m not buying any more at the moment

The story is still a good one.

[forest]

Yep forest read all that stuff ...and all the stuff in presentations ...and even listened to a bit of Earl

But follow the cash

From the Operating Cash Flow (the $57.0m) leave out the $80.0m net they got for ORA sales you get negative $23.0m

This is Receipts from residents for vilage and care fees less employees and suppliers less rent less interest ...to me that’s the cash cost of looking after and caring for residents. The rest of the cash flow statements are all property related

So following the money $23m cash gone in H1 ....last year it was ~$4m ...big diffference.

You do it your way ...I’ll look at it my way ....and no doubt beagle and mav will do it their way.

Your way or my way. Call it property related or deferred care fees, I am please that we both agree it is a company worth of holding shares in. ;)

[bull....]

The story is still a good one.

no it was only good for mcquarie , the rest of you should listen to the doors .... this is the end my friend lol of the gravy train and watch out for the 900 potential covid carriers coming to NZ this week

Over the next couple of days, some 900 people will be coming to New Zealand from overseas.

https://www.nzherald.co.nz/nz/news/article.cfm?c_id=1&objectid=12341842

[Beagle]

Enough of the mindless scaremongering b.s. bull. More than 20,000 people have been through the quarantine process already. We have just 9 cases, all of which are contained in border quarantine facilities and no evidence of community transmission. I swear some people "get off" on the whole scaremongering thing.

[Baa_Baa]

no it was only good for mcquarie , the rest of you should listen to the doors .... this is the end my friend lol of the gravy train and watch out for the 900 potential covid carriers coming to NZ this week

Over the next couple of days, some 900 people will be coming to New Zealand from overseas.

https://www.nzherald.co.nz/nz/news/article.cfm?c_id=1&objectid=12341842

I'm certainly not listening to a stock Trader in regards to OCA.

[Joshuatree]

Youve conveniently forgotten the two week quarantine Bull.

[dobby41]

Enough of the mindless scaremongering b.s. bull. More than 20,000 people have been through the quarantine process already. We have just 9 cases, all of which are contained in border quarantine facilities and no evidence of community transmission. I swear some people "get off" on the whole scaremongering thing.

I think you are right about the 'get off on' bit. Very glass half empty types.

[Bjauck]

no it was only good for mcquarie , the rest of you should listen to the doors .... this is the end my friend lol of the gravy train and watch out for the 900 potential covid carriers coming to NZ this week

Over the next couple of days, some 900 people will be coming to New Zealand from overseas.

https://www.nzherald.co.nz/nz/news/article.cfm?c_id=1&objectid=12341842
We cannot close the door to New Zealanders (and permanent residents) returning. However we can ensure that quarantine is strict and enforced. We can also extend it to three or four weeks should epedimiolgists suggest either is more appropriate. If the government baulks at the cost, perhaps the cost of quarantine could be treated as for student loans.

[dobby41]

If the government baulks at the cost, perhaps the cost of quarantine could be treated as for student loans.

Can you legally charge people for coming back into their own country?

[Bjauck]

Can you legally charge people for coming back into their own country? Well ignoring the costs of travel, you have to pay NZ airport or port fees for a start. Technically the quarantine costs would not be a charge for returning to the country. It would be a charge for remaining in the country. Besides in NZ I think the Sovereign-in-parliament can introduce any tax or impost she wishes. After all, legally it is not our country but it is the Queen’s country at the beginning and at the end of the day. She has the sovereignty/Kawanatanga.

[Justin]

salt fund on sale？

[tango]

“One of New Zealand’s largest owners and operators of retirement villages has been found in breach of the health code after substandard care in 2017 for a man in his 90s who died of suspected blood poisoning.

Oceania Healthcare, which owned the rest home at the time, was found to have breached the Code of Health and Disability Services Consumers’ Rights (the Code), Deputy Health and Disability Commissioner Rose Wall said today.

The man had multiple medical conditions including dementia, heart failure, diabetes, and ischaemia, and had undergone an amputation when he was admitted to the rest home.

While a resident there, the man’s condition deteriorated and he began to show signs of pain, infection and delirium.

There was a delay in administering antibiotics, minimal opiate pain relief and a failure to test for a urinary tract infection (UTI).

He was transferred to hospital where he was diagnosed with suspected blood poisoning and died.

Ms Wall said the man was let down by various aspects of the care provided to him by numerous staff at the rest home.

Nurse practitioners who oversaw the rest home and no means for enabling direct, urgent access to a GP while the prescription system did not allow for urgent medications to be fast-tracked.

There was inadequate monitoring and documentation of the man’s condition and the rest home’s poor communication with the man’s family.”

https://www.tvnz.co.nz/one-news/new-zealand/major-retirement-village-operator-failed-adequately-care-elderly-man-before-his-death

[King1212]

Here we go..it was on the newbies Facebook...was waiting someone to post it..

[bull....]

that is a horrible sad story , i hope there is a investigation shameful. never invest in a company that does this ... off my investing watchlist for sure

[King1212]

Sell...sell...sell.....sell all

[Paradox]

Related content is here.....https://www.hdc.org.nz/decisions/search-decisions/2019/17hdc01304/

Need to see what the management response since 2017 in other homes- in terms of assessment policy changes, additional rigour, training to Registered Nurses etc.

[justakiwi]

You will be hard pressed to find a retirement/aged care company to invest in, that hasn’t experienced at least one similar incident. The stated inability to obtain urgent prescriptions outside of business hours, is a real problem, and is not the fault of the facility. We can not prescribe medication - we are reliant on GPS and pharmacies as is the general public. If this poor man had been able to get antibiotics sooner, maybe he would have survived, but there are no guarantees. Where I work, if we are concerned, we would do an immediate transfer to hospital, but you would be surprised how many unpleasant calls we get from ED later, questioning why we sent Mr/Mrs X in and telling us they are not bad enough for us to have done that.

There are many people involved in these situations so please be mindful of that. I am not saying they handled this particular case well - I am not an RN so that’s not a call I can make. I’m just giving some perspective as someone who works in a rest home, and is often supervising 32 residents, with one colleague, and no RN on site.


that is a horrible sad story , i hope there is a investigation shameful. never invest in a company that does this ... off my investing watchlist for sure

[bull....]

You will be hard pressed to find a retirement/aged care company to invest in, that hasn’t experienced at least one similar incident. The stated inability to obtain urgent prescriptions outside of business hours, is a real problem, and is not the fault of the facility. We can not prescribe medication - we are reliant on GPS and pharmacies as is the general public. If this poor man had been able to get antibiotics sooner, maybe he would have survived, but there are no guarantees. Where I work, if we are concerned, we would do an immediate transfer to hospital, but you would be surprised how many unpleasant calls we get from ED later, questioning why we sent Mr/Mrs X in and telling us they are not bad enough for us to have done that.

There are many people involved in these situations so please be mindful of that. I am not saying they handled this particular case well - I am not an RN so that’s not a call I can make. I’m just giving some perspective as someone who works in a rest home, and is often supervising 32 residents, with one colleague, and no RN on site.

should be manatory a RN is always on site , thats what these outfits do to cut costs

[King1212]

eih braw bull....that was 2017...

but keep shaking though...maybe we see 50c soon....keep it up braw

[justakiwi]

The requirement for an RN to be onsite 24/7 is based on the level of care. We do not have a hospital level wing - we are standard rest home level with up to 32 residents. A rest home that has a hospital level wing, must have an RN on 24/7. Those are legal requirements set by government legislation. So we are not required to have an RN on all the time. Ours finish around 3.30-4pm. From that point on I (as the supervisor) am the one responsible for everything, including administration of medications. I have one caregiver working with me from 3.30-11pm, with an extra on for 3 hours over tea time. I have no idea how other facilities operate, but they all need to meet the same requirements in terms of staffing levels and RN cover.

As many have been saying here lately, the costs of care are high. I honestly don’t know what the answers are, but we do our very best with what we’ve got. This incident occurred in 2017. I feel confident that Oceania has learned from that experience and has put processes in place to reduce the chance of it happening again. They now put care at the forefront of their operations, which is why I hold. They seem to have a genuine understanding of the importance of care and a realisation that the care side of things will be in huge demand in the future. In my humble opinion, they will be proven to be right about that.


should be manatory a RN is always on site , thats what these outfits do to cut costs

[tango]

Related content is here.....https://www.hdc.org.nz/decisions/search-decisions/2019/17hdc01304/

Need to see what the management response since 2017 in other homes- in terms of assessment policy changes, additional rigour, training to Registered Nurses etc.

Agree. A pattern of neglect is different to an isolated incident and it depends what systems and check have been put in place since 2017.

More than one incident is concerning!

I’m in for the long haul if the management are on top of this now. If not...

[bull....]

eih braw bull....that was 2017...

but keep shaking though...maybe we see 50c soon....keep it up braw

2021 year will show the full extent of the covid slowdown on property. im sure plenty on here will rave on this years accounts even though they were mainly pre - covid

[King1212]

put your order in braw bull...50.5 cents......

[bull....]

Agree. A pattern of neglect is different to an isolated incident and it depends what systems and check have been put in place since 2017.

More than one incident is concerning!

I’m in for the long haul if the management are on top of this now. If not...

we hope they are better these days , but you hear some sad stories now and then from all the different outfits not just oca

[King1212]

agree....all rest homes and villages have their own sad stories...many!!!

event RYM, SUM, ARV have their own...the media did not pick it up or families were not mourning and bitching about it.

how do i know....my other half worked in the rest home before...thank you guys...!!!

[Beagle]

It may be necessary for my Mum who is nearly 91 to go into care in the very near future. I really hope we can get her into an OCA care facility.
This statement speaks for itself in terms of the confidence I have in OCA's care.

[Bjauck]

It may be necessary for my Mum who is nearly 91 to go into care in the very near future. I really hope we can get her into an OCA care facility.
This statement speaks for itself in terms of the confidence I have in OCA's care. All the best for what will be a difficult decision. From what I have seen and heard, I too would have confidence with an OCA facility.

From my experience of having a family member in several care homes, I also think that individual care homes depend on the timbre of the actual manager. Even if the actual buildings and fittings look a little tired, The manager's character and attitude can produce from a particular facility "an extra shine" from the great attitude of staff and the quality of the actual care.

[jmsnz]

From my experience of having a family member in several care homes, I also think that individual care homes depend on the timbre of the actual manager. Even if the actual buildings and fittings look a little tired, The manager's character and attitude can produce from a particular facility "an extra shine" from the great attitude of staff and the quality of the actual care.
My family have just been through this with our 90 year old mum and I would concur with Bjauck's comment re managers being key. I was the family member charged with visiting and recommending a place and would have to say I was pleasantly surprised and ultimately there were a number of places that I would have had no difficulty seeing her in. In the end it was an OCA property we picked and things are going well, albeit very early days.

[Playa]

[QUOTE=Beagle;824302]It may be necessary for my Mum who is nearly 91 to go into care in the very near future. I really hope we can get her into an OCA care facility.
This statement speaks for itself in terms of the confidence I have in OCA's care.[/QUOTE
I have been recently looking for my Mum and was most impressed with what I saw at The Sands and Mt Eden.Its hard to beat the Sands for location and the staff I met there were great.But in saying all that they dont need all that 5 star luxury either,a nice homely vibe with good stafff and some nice residents and they are happy at that age.Good luck with it all Beagle

[Beagle]

Thanks guys. Very true about what difference a good manager can make to a place. Unfortunately as I found out when my Dad was in a secure dementia facility many years ago good managers can be in top demand by competitor companies and when they leave... So the overall reputation of an organisation is also extremely important.

Earl's Gasparich is a good bloke and I feel very fortunate to have his email address. I am sure he'll point me in the right direction for the care Mum needs. Initial ultrasound and xray imaging doesn't look good. Very unlikely to operate at her age. CT scan tomorrow and we'll go from there.

Agree Sands is very nice but I'm not sure if they specialise in palliative care ? OCA's website points me towards other OCA villages for that but Earl will know what's best.
Would be nice if she had a sea view from her room...see what I can do.

[Playa]

When I was there a week ago they had a care suite room available with a great view,right at the front,not sure if it is still available and not sure if they are ready there for palliative care

[Snoopy]

OCA, charge a ORA on the physical bed AND also a nursing charge for extra tailored services as required. There's no "not for profit" intentions in that model!
I personally don't expect any profit on the nurse component nor ever will. It's the bed underneath them that produces the profit. This average ORA revenue (property component)alone for Last years new sales was $33k p/a, per one care suit. That runs on average over 3 years then it starts over again immediately. That's what I meant earlier about a turbo ORA. Comparably, Villas recycle over about 7 years to yield 3 years of ORA income.




Yep forest read all that stuff ...and all the stuff in presentations ...and even listened to a bit of Earl

But follow the cash

From the Operating Cash Flow (the $57.0m) leave out the $80.0m net they got for ORA sales you get negative $23.0m

This is Receipts from residents for village and care fees less employees and suppliers less rent less interest ...to me that’s the cash cost of looking after and caring for residents. The rest of the cash flow statements are all property related.

So following the money $23m cash gone in H1 ....last year it was ~$4m ...big difference.


So at last the 'profitability' of those companies operating high end care suites has been exposed. It is all about the rich putting up big bucks to purchase a care unit and receiving loss making care. It is a continuation of the property market boom funding the profit. Turn off the property market tap and suddenly the 'profits' from looking after all the high end care patients disappear.

SNOOPY

[Beagle]

Just as well the provision of property and care are inextricably linked then isn't it Snoopy :cool:

Thanks Playa.

[jmsnz]

Just as well the provision of property and care are inextricably linked then isn't it Snoopy :cool:
But that isn't 100% true in that you can get hospital level care without 'buying' the property. In which case I assume that OCA and others are relying on the government funds plus families desire/ability to pay for extras within the room. I suspect that without those buying care suites the model would be difficult to sustain.

[justakiwi]

Without the government subsidies for those that are eligible, the only people who could ever afford care (of any kind) would be the wealthy. So yes, all aged care facilities rely heavily on that funding. No doubt some families are paying for “extras” - I expect there will be significant profit built into those (I’m talking room with a better view, room upgrades - not additional nursing care). Even our little rest home charges extra for a room with its own en-suite - which really bugs me given that those four rooms only have private en-suite due to the layout of the building. They are rooms on the corners of two corridors. I think it sucks charging an extra fee when those rooms couldn’t have been built with a shared en-suite anyway. And you’re not talking an extra fee per week - you’re talking an extra fee per day!



But that isn't 100% true in that you can get hospital level care without 'buying' the property. In which case I assume that OCA and others are relying on the government funds plus families desire/ability to pay for extras within the room. I suspect that without those buying care suites the model would be difficult to sustain.

[Baa_Baa]

But that isn't 100% true in that you can get hospital level care without 'buying' the property. In which case I assume that OCA and others are relying on the government funds plus families desire/ability to pay for extras within the room. I suspect that without those buying care suites the model would be difficult to sustain.

There’s a lot of folks who after means testing don’t qualify for government subsidy, they pay the full whack direct to the ‘home’ and it ain’t cheap! They can’t escape that, if they can afford it they pay it, no option regardless of whether listed company or not.

Snoopy over simplifies the rest home business model which is odd considering his dogged deep dives into other companies of interest.

The fact that a company makes a loss on care could be looked at a loss leader or even at a pinch COGS for the other highly profitable revenue streams. I don’t really care, looking at the revenue and profits in Toto.

I also don’t buy into the short or even medium term fluctuations in property values, in the long run NZ wealth for many is built on a property investment model that always goes up in value over time and has no tax on capital gains, speaking of which, the RH business model is also the beneficiary of very favourable tax treatment. RH’s are a proxy property play.

The forecast for demand for these services is both startling as it is encouraging for long term investors. Follow the money.

The only fundamental concern I have is the risk of a changed regulatory environment to the detriment of the listed companies. But that’s not apparent and neither is the need for the listed companies to continue to provide essential care services, that otherwise the state would become liable for.

At the end of the day if you don’t like the industry model or the company models within it, or the risks real or perceived, just don’t invest in it. You won’t be missed imo.

[jmsnz]

There’s a lot of folks who after means testing don’t qualify for government subsidy, they pay the full whack direct to the ‘home’ and it ain’t cheap! They can’t escape that, if they can afford it they pay it, no option regardless of whether listed company or not.

Snoopy over simplifies the rest home business model which is odd considering his dogged deep dives into other companies of interest.

The fact that a company makes a loss on care could be looked at a loss leader or even at a pinch COGS for the other highly profitable revenue streams. I don’t really care, looking at the revenue and profits in Toto.

I also don’t buy into the short or even medium term fluctuations in property values, in the long run NZ wealth for many is built on a property investment model that always goes up in value over time and has no tax on capital gains, speaking of which, the RH business model is also the beneficiary of very favourable tax treatment. RH’s are a proxy property play.

The forecast for demand for these services is both startling as it is encouraging for long term investors. Follow the money.

The only fundamental concern I have is the risk of a changed regulatory environment to the detriment of the listed companies. But that’s not apparent and neither is the need for the listed companies to continue to provide essential care services, that otherwise the state would become liable for.

At the end of the day if you don’t like the industry model or the company models within it, or the risks real or perceived, just don’t invest in it. You won’t be missed imo.

And my mum is one of those who is paying, at least until we get down to the last +/-$230,000. Basically she owns a freehold small 2-bedroom unit so isn't someone that I would ever class as 'wealthy' and if we are honest probably couldn't afford/be comfortable with the cost without knowing that ultimately the tax payer will pick up the tab.

I actually think that we have our model pretty well balanced. Those that need care and can't afford to contribute can get it whilst those that can afford have options for better facilities earlier if they wish but ultimately care levels are even(ish) so everyone has access to the base level of care.

From an investment point of view I can not see you can lose. Given our demographics we will need the full range of options and there will have to be a base level of care funding. Some investments might do better than others but in the long term they will all provide enough return for me to pay for my care when I get to mum's age.

Disc: Hold RYM & OCA

[Beagle]

But that isn't 100% true in that you can get hospital level care without 'buying' the property. In which case I assume that OCA and others are relying on the government funds plus families desire/ability to pay for extras within the room. I suspect that without those buying care suites the model would be difficult to sustain.

Yes you can.

[Snoopy]

Snoopy over simplifies the rest home business model which is odd considering his dogged deep dives into other companies of interest.

The fact that a company makes a loss on care could be looked at a loss leader or even at a pinch COGS for the other highly profitable revenue streams. I don’t really care, looking at the revenue and profits in Toto.


Consider that entry into the retirement village 'property proxy business' now requires taking on a 'loss leader' nursing care service in tandem with it. Wouldn't you be better just buying a rental property? That way you avoid the 'loss leader' nursing attachment.



I also don’t buy into the short or even medium term fluctuations in property values, in the long run NZ wealth for many is built on a property investment model that always goes up in value over time and has no tax on capital gains, speaking of which, the RH business model is also the beneficiary of very favourable tax treatment. RH’s are a proxy property play.


Property values depend on many things.

1/ The balance of people leaving a city offset by the number of immigrants coming in to boost the population.
2/ The income of the house owners needed to service the mortgage.
3/ The current loan to value ratio restrictions on buying property.
4/ The size of the average house on a particular section of land.
5/ The market mortgage interest rate.

Cities like Auckland have seen increasing population, rising income, as of now no restriction on loan to value ratios and houses getting larger and larger and all time low interest rates. So it isn't surprising that Auckland house prices have been on a long term rising trend.

However, incomes in the future are less certain and the net immigration population gains into the future are in doubt. So the reserve bank is currently manipulating the property market by removing loan to value ratios and slashing interest rates. If 'property prices always go up', then the reserve bank would not have needed to do anything.

I think in the medium term there are real doubts that the likes of the Auckland property market will go up. And if it does, you can bet that loan to value ratios and interest rates will be adjusted accordingly. So I think it is very likely that retirement village operators will be operating in a property market that is flat at best in the medium term. In that situation, retirement village operators become inherently loss making businesses.



The forecast for demand for these services is both startling as it is encouraging for long term investors. Follow the money.


The fact that independently constructed retirement villages will remain an important part of aged care into the future is not in doubt. The fact that the care side of the business cannot charge fees to cover their operating costs has not been addressed by the government. So whether retirement villages can operate profitably into the future is in doubt IMO. It depends on the vicissitudes of the property market.



The only fundamental concern I have is the risk of a changed regulatory environment to the detriment of the listed companies. But that’s not apparent and neither is the need for the listed companies to continue to provide essential care services, that otherwise the state would become liable for.


Has the reinstatement of depreciation on commercial buildings rolled across to retirement villages? If it has that could alleviate some operational cashflow issues. But is a 'licence to occupy home' in a retirement village a commercial building? I would love to know.



At the end of the day if you don’t like the industry model or the company models within it, or the risks real or perceived, just don’t invest in it. You won’t be missed imo.


Still happy to be 'missing in retirement village action'.

SNOOPY

[macduffy]

Some interesting viewpoints in recent posts, but most of these are of a generic nature and more suitable for the "retirement village operators" thread than the OCA one.

[Snoopy]

Some interesting viewpoints in recent posts, but most of these are of a generic nature and more suitable for the "retirement village operators" thread than the OCA one.


Oceania operates the highest proportion of care beds compared to all other listed retirement village operators. So Oceania will be the most affected by any slow down in care unit capital value appreciation. And that means Oceania will be the listed entity most likely to get burnt from care unit operational losses.

SNOOPY

[Bjauck]

Consider that entry into the retirement village 'property proxy business' now requires taking on a 'loss leader' nursing care service in tandem with it. Wouldn't you be better just buying a rental property? That way you avoid the 'loss leader' nursing attachment.

Property values depend on many things.

1/ The balance of people leaving a city offset by the number of immigrants coming in to boost the population.
2/ The income of the house owners needed to service the mortgage.
3/ The current loan to value ratio restrictions on buying property.
4/ The size of the average house on a particular section of land.
5/ The market mortgage interest rate.

...

I guess if you have (in Auckland, where I am) about a million (or are comfortable with a humongous mortgage) to buy a rental property, then that could be a valid alternative.

I would add another item to the property value dependency list:

6/ The continuation of Tax efficiency. Rental property ownership can be easily structured to minimise taxable income while hopefully maximising non-taxed capital gains. Owner-occupied ownership is untaxed both as to annual benefit of occupation and capital gain on equity.

[allfromacell]

Snoopy, why does the value of units need to necessarily increase for Oceania to profit from clipping the ticket on resales?

[Beagle]

Oceania operates the highest proportion of care beds compared to all other listed retirement village operators. So Oceania will be the most affected by any slow down in care unit capital value appreciation. And that means Oceania will be the listed entity most likely to get burnt from care unit operational losses.

SNOOPY

And will benefit the most when they reach their target of having 70% of their care services under the Occupation right agreement model in due course.
Nobody is on here to sell you on investing in the retirement sector. If you want to own rental properties instead and all the 101 drama's that go with that, fill ya boots mate and good luck !

[Snoopy]

Snoopy, why does the value of units need to necessarily increase for Oceania to profit from clipping the ticket on resales?


Good point. Perhaps what I should have said was that occupation right resale profit will be significantly less if those units do not increase in price over time. Some money spend may be necessary to refurbish the care space between occupants. There will be legal costs as a result of the transfer that will increase the cost of sales to Oceania. So not all of the retention money is pocketed as profit. With very low property price inflation, we could get into a situation where care units decrease in value over a two to three year period (typical of care unit occupation times). That could be very nasty for a company with a leveraged balance sheet.

SNOOPY

[Beagle]

Which is more likely to decrease in value Snoopy. A $1m rental property in Auckland or a $200K care suite in the Kapiti coast ?

[winner69]

Only a few weeks to the years result

Hope underlying profit is (a lot) more than Mav’s projection of $54m

Else we’ll be waiting even longer than we thought to get rich

But as long as they keep borrowing to pay that unimputed dividend we should be happy (sort of)

[bull....]

The fact that independently constructed retirement villages will remain an important part of aged care into the future is not in doubt. The fact that the care side of the business cannot charge fees to cover their operating costs has not been addressed by the government. So whether retirement villages can operate profitably into the future is in doubt IMO. It depends on the vicissitudes of the property market.

Still happy to be 'missing in retirement village action'.

SNOOPY

So true one only has to look to the retirement sector in AUS to see what happens to stock prices once the property gains side of things no longer exists.

[King1212]

Braw bull...this is Aotearoa ahhhh braw....not the same with the kangaroos

[winner69]

Braw bull...this is Aotearoa ahhhh braw....not the same with the kangaroos

I thought it was New Zealand your majesty

[King1212]

Come master winner ...land of long white cloud..

I know u bailed eh.... trying to ramp down so u can pick up cheap shares ..

I saw the order...60.25c.....chexkyy fellow ..

[Waltzing]

Only one thing happened in after the GFC, house prices went through the roof, clouds, up there... Basically an investor recently commented that the greatest assets bubble in history was about to start building if the fed did not take it foot off the rocket motors... If you did not buy US tech you also missed the tech bubble starting to build 3.0.. If this is Ipso them prices at these levels in 5 years time will be though of as the low and regret will be high.

Amended - Here in the central north island house prices really hit heights in 2018-2019.

[mfd]

Only one thing happened in after the GFC, house prices went through the roof, clouds, up there...

I don't think the data agrees with this, certainly not for New Zealand. Taking a national average (QV index), house prices fell about 10% between the peak at the end of 2007 and mid 2009. They got back to the peak prices in 2012. Prices really went crazy starting around 2015.

This all happened despite interest rates falling from 8.25% to 2.5%. We'll see what happens this time, but banking on price rises just now would be brave.

https://www.interest.co.nz/charts/real-estate/qv-house-price-index

https://www.interest.co.nz/charts/interest-rates/ocr

[Baa_Baa]

The short termism and trader talk here is misplaced, this is one of those assets that long term investors will enjoy handsome returns for many years to come. When the share price trades below fair value, that's when the silent majority of investors are increasing their holdings. Who'd have thought you could buy this for less than half IPO and well below NTA recently. What a gift for long term investors.

Everything else is noise.

[King1212]

Yeah braw.....else just ramping n jealous...

OCA....O for awesome!

[Waltzing]

Correct MFD - i should have been specific but i did say "in 5 year time". Yes house prices in this central north island area did not go crazy until 2017-2019. I was merely trying not to be a down rampa and say that prices here might look very cheap in 5 years time. After all the amount of QE by the FED and on market purchasing which did not even exist in that period by the fed might drive a recovering at a far faster pace. Asian flew in the USA was similar and that showed a recovery far faster than the GFC.

[Maverick]

Snoopy, the more I read your posts where you often compare village ORAs and renting houses out as the same thing, I feel you don't quite get the chasm between the two.

On one hand we all know how a rental works, you might be lucky to get 2-4% return , plus any capital gain.
Where as a standard RV villa ORA will return 30% over an average of 7 years occupancy ..therefore about 4% p/a (30%/7yrs). plus any capital gain.
Then add a weekly villa fee ,say, $130
Already your unabused RV villa is looking significantly better.

Now this is the point I don't quite think you are getting Snoopy…..
Your house is , at best, returning 2 -4% on “your” capital whereas the Villa is paid up front, in full by the client, so you are making 4% on “their” money. You have now been fully reimbursed for your villa and can perpetuate the process limited only by time to build another one and demand . You are now making 4% on someone else's money.

Properties rising is a nice additional bonus of course but not the core of OCAs model.
OCAs real point of difference from its peers, is that it can churn a care suit over every 3 yrs rather than the standard 7 for a villa . So that's effectively a 10% return p/a, again entirely on some else's money.

OCA have deliberately targeted care suits as the coming excessive demand will not be met by other competitors...perhaps an opposing example is SUM who have targeted villas until now and now having to curb their build rates.

I especially like the term recently coined by BaaBaa for the care side of the business as a “loss leader” and especially “COGS”...that's just brilliant!
……..got to get those customers coming into the store somehow.

[Waltzing]

I feel Inspector come auditor SNOOP is at his best with banks. I dont think the market actually has a handle on the market model of OCA at all.

[Paradox]

OCAs real point of difference from its peers, is that it can churn a care suit over every 3 yrs rather than the standard 7 for a villa . So that's effectively a 10% return p/a, again entirely on some else's money.

I haven't looked into OCA's asset turnover (i.e, Sales/Average Net Operating Assets), but is it on par with rest of the players?

Other advantage for OCA (and other aged care providers) is that funding from DHBs is limited and invariably favours incumbents rather than new entrants. Cashflow isn't quite an issue then?

[Snow Leopard]

In the nearly 16 years ( 'anniversary' is 15-Jul, that will be a better excuse to share a bottle of wine than 610 years since The Battle of Grunwald (https://www.onthisday.com/photos/battle-of-grunwald) ) that I have frequented this board the subject of how these healthcare/retirement village companies actually make (or don't make in MET's case) their money has come up on a pretty regular basis.

So, very generally:
You make a little money, or at least do not lose too much doing the care & added services bit:
You make a bit on money reselling (the right to occupy) an existing unit at a higher price than last time:
You make most money selling a new unit for more than it cost to build.

Each of these involves cash-flow and the value of the properties is related to the 'expected future cash-flow they will generate', but in reality means the state of the residential property market.

Underlying all this the value is dependent upon the premise that in the long run they company can build more and more new units every year ( on a long term basis ) which leads one to consider the possible parallels with the 'Shoe Event Horizon'. [If necessary Google It, Think About It & DO NOT Dismiss It]

Should you think you have all that sorted before I get back from the wine cellar then you can ponder the industries insistence that the "underlying profit" thing is a better measure of performance than the old NPAT/Comprehensive Income.

Anyway good night or good morning or whatever to you depending on your time-zone.

Disc: Mostly harmless

[King1212]

https://www.scoop.co.nz/stories/BU2006/S00424/mum-and-dad-investors-return-to-property-market.htm?utm_source=ST&utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=ShareTrader+AM+Update+for+Thursday+25 +June+2020

House Price will hold