OCA - Oceania Group - retirement villages

[suse]

My mother was in a Ryman facility and I have to say they were excellent, especially towards the end of her life. I think it is important that the likes of Ryman, Oceania, Summerset etc appropriately pay and train their staff. As a shareholder of course we want to see dividends, but as a human being, I want to see that the word "care" actually means something when they talk about it in their glossy documents.

[Playa]

I feel for you Beagle,my Mum is in the same boat with late care stage cancer, and is also in an aged care facility where they are doing a great job..Makes you think about a lot of things.I don't post much on here but thank you for all the useful posts of yours I have read over the past couple of years

[Beagle]

I feel for you Beagle,my Mum is in the same boat with late care stage cancer, and is also in an aged care facility where they are doing a great job..Makes you think about a lot of things.I don't post much on here but thank you for all the useful posts of yours I have read over the past couple of years

Thanks, you're most welcome and you're quite right. The sort of situation you and I are in makes you reflect a lot on the value of things that money can't buy.

I am fortunate to have a best friend I have known forever and he and his family live with his mother who's still in good health for 80 years of age. I was round there last night having a good old natter about things. I asked if she would like to be a Mum to me after my Mum passes away. She gave me a big smile and caring hug. I took that as a yes :) Gotta look for silver linings in the clouds wherever you can find them at times like this !!

[sam green]

My mother was in a Ryman facility and I have to say they were excellent, especially towards the end of her life. I think it is important that the likes of Ryman, Oceania, Summerset etc appropriately pay and train their staff. As a shareholder of course we want to see dividends, but as a human being, I want to see that the word "care" actually means something when they talk about it in their glossy documents.

Couldn't agree more Suse. My mum spent her last 8 weeks in an Oceania home, she died at the beginning of lockdown. The care she received was excellent, especially considering the stress that covid was putting on the system at that time. As a shareholder, I believe nurses in retirement villages absolutely deserve the same pay as all other nurses. I'd like to see all the other essential workers there - the managers, carers, cleaners etc - who support our loved ones at their most vulnerable - get higher wages too. I believe more investment in staff would mean the sector would then become more attractive to work in, attracting and retaining top quality staff. Which should result in better care, and a better bottom line.

[BlackPeter]

Couldn't agree more Suse. My mum spent her last 8 weeks in an Oceania home, she died at the beginning of lockdown. The care she received was excellent, especially considering the stress that covid was putting on the system at that time. As a shareholder, I believe nurses in retirement villages absolutely deserve the same pay as all other nurses. I'd like to see all the other essential workers there - the managers, carers, cleaners etc - who support our loved ones at their most vulnerable - get higher wages too. I believe more investment in staff would mean the sector would then become more attractive to work in, attracting and retaining top quality staff. Which should result in better care, and a better bottom line.

Be careful ... The Warehouse tried this trick in the retail arena - and just look where it got them. A very average but highly overpaid staff resulting now in huge job losses. That's life ...

Defining salaries is a tricky job. If you pay your people not enough, the best staff will leave. If you pay them too much, the worst staff will stay. Feeling warm and fuzzy is a terrible method to set ones salaries.

As well- ever thought who is going to pay for it if we pay our amazing age care workers a well as our amazing health care workers as well as our amazing police staff as well as our amazing teachers as well as our amazing road workers as well as our amazing planers as well as our amazing and essential retail workers as well as our amazing bus drivers as well as our (enter your personal heroes here) .... higher salaries because - no doubt, they all deserve it?

The end result is an amazing price inflation ... and if you don't believe me, don't check with the department of lies and statistics, but just go into the supermarket and check what a loaf of bread, a pound of butter, a piece of your favorite cheese, some chocolate or a bottle of wine cost these days compared with 5 or 10 years ago. Or - just check your latest rates bill and compare it with the one you paid 10 years ago. It is amazing what happens if everybody is amazing and deserves these amazing salary rises.

While some age care workers no doubt are amazing, lets face it - as many of them are terrible and most are (as in any other profession) just average. Better lets adjust our salary scales to reality instead of allowing the warm and fuzzy to get away with us.

[justakiwi]

Defining salaries is a tricky job. If you pay your people not enough, the best staff will leave. If you pay them too much, the worst staff will stay.

Wrong. The best staff will always stay, regardless of the fact that we are underpaid and undervalued. Because we are passionate about the job we do and we are committed to providing the best care we possibly can. The worst staff will also stay, because they need the money, and because nobody ever holds them accountable for their less than ideal performance/attitude/care.


While some age care workers no doubt are amazing, lets face it - as many of them are terrible and most are (as in any other profession) just average.

Wrong again. We may not all be “amazing” but the vast majority of us are very good at what we do, and we give our job 100%. Your statement that “many are terrible and most are just average” is unsubstantiated and disrespectful, and says a lot more about you as a person than it does about us.

[hogie]

Wrong. The best staff will always stay, regardless of the fact that we are underpaid and undervalued.

??? Really now ....

Being underpaid and undervalued is a really good way of reducing job satisfaction over time :)

[justakiwi]

True, but it is the residents I care for who provide me with my job satisfaction. They are the ones who make me feel valued and appreciated - every day. That feedback is the stuff I take home with me at the end of every shift, that makes me feel good about myself and the job I am doing.

Employer/management support and or appreciation, on the other hand, can be seriously lacking sometimes.


??? Really now ....

Being underpaid and undervalued is a really good way of reducing job satisfaction over time :)

[BlackPeter]

Wrong. The best staff will always stay, regardless of the fact that we are underpaid and undervalued. Because we are passionate about the job we do and we are committed to providing the best care we possibly can. The worst staff will also stay, because they need the money, and because nobody ever holds them accountable for their less than ideal performance/attitude/care.

You seem to think you work in a quite unusual industry where the standards of normal human behaviour don't apply. Actually, many people think that about their industry, but unfortunately - they all are wrong with this assumption.


Wrong again. We may not all be “amazing” but the vast majority of us are very good at what we do, and we give our job 100%. Your statement that “many are terrible and most are just average” is unsubstantiated and disrespectful, and says a lot more about you as a person than it does about us.

Look - I am sorry you took my generic comments personal and took out the sledgehammer before trying to understand my post. I won't hold it against any other age care worker, though :):

As well - I didn't say "many are terrible", I said "as many are terrible as there are outstanding". Any human behaviour comes in a statistical relevant number in Gauss curves. Have a look at them and you will understand what I meant.

This is true for any profession and has something to do with the laws of statistics ... unless you are a believer of the fairy tale that 95 % of all students perform "above average" (as a recent survey of students revealed), that more policemen (than the relevant average of the population) are honest and that more age care workers (than the relevant average of the population) are outstanding. I am sorry - but this is just a delusion.

Average - per definition - means 50% of any group are above and 50% are below. Any large enough group performs (in average) just average .... and any group does have some people doing an amazing job and as many people doing a terrible job.

Put enough people in any industry together and you will find out that the laws of statistics apply.

[Snow Leopard]

....
Average - per definition - means 50% of any group are above and 50% are below. Any large enough group performs (in average) just average .... and any group does have some people doing an amazing job and as many people doing a terrible job.
....

Flame time. :cursing:

THAT IS NOT THE AVERAGE THAT IS THE MEDIAN

And your second statement is not correct either.

[TideMan]

Average - per definition - means 50% of any group are above and 50% are below.
No. That's the definition of the median.
Only if the distribution is symmetric is the average the same as the median.
Why have you assumed the distribution is Gaussian?
If the distribution for age care workers is non-Gaussian, justakiwi could be correct.

[BlackPeter]

Flame time. :cursing:

THAT IS NOT THE AVERAGE THAT IS THE MEDIAN

And your second statement is not correct either.

Quite average statement if I may say so :);

[Snow Leopard]

Quite average statement if I may say so :);

ALL Snow Leopards are well above average in anything and everything.

That is a well know fact.

Just quit while you are not too far behind.

[stoploss]

Ladies and Gentlemen could I respectively ask before this turns into another xxxxstorm. Sit back have a cuppa.
Think about this being a retirement sector stock and the difficulties some members have and are currently facing .
This is something that we all face going through life .
If you want a slanging match please take it into the political forum or off line .
Lets keep this on topic.

[BlackPeter]

No. That's the definition of the median.
Only if the distribution is symmetric is the average the same as the median.
Why have you assumed the distribution is Gaussian?
If the distribution for age care workers is non-Gaussian, justakiwi could be correct.

OK - I guess without defining the "outstandingness" or "terribleness" of age care workers are we obviously talking about a subjective assessment. Their are no statistical rules for subjective assessments (other that there is always a huge bias towards the positive).

Just remembering the time when in NZ Primary schools every child got at year end a certificate for outstanding achievement (not sure - maybe they still do that)? This obviously just redefines outstanding to the new average (or for the resident feline - median) ... but sure - it makes everybody "outstanding". If I use this definition, than I have to admit - all age care workers as well as everybody else is outstanding ... and average and median.

If we use however any objective measurement to measure human performance, than it will follow a normal distribution, as does intelligence, attitude, creativity and various human moods) - i.e. Gauss curve does apply. I can't see why age care workers would be exempt from the rules of maths. Can you?

[BlackPeter]

ALL Snow Leopards are well above average in anything and everything.

That is a well know fact.

Just quit while you are not too far behind.

You don't seem to realise that the median and the average would be the same if we assume normal distribution (as I did), which unfortunately is quite average ...

BTW - just wondering ... given that it is clearly not maths ... would the ability to survive as species be included in "anything and everything"? I heard Snow Leopards are nearly extinct ... :p, which obviously is a very sad story ... :crying:

[peat]

wow talk about this thread going from the sublime to the ridiculous.
I really dont think this is a profitable line of discussion folks. Move along.

[Bjauck]

True, but it is the residents I care for who provide me with my job satisfaction. They are the ones who make me feel valued and appreciated - every day. That feedback is the stuff I take home with me at the end of every shift, that makes me feel good about myself and the job I am doing.

Employer/management support and or appreciation, on the other hand, can be seriously lacking sometimes. I met people as you describe, when My family member was in care. A personal touch and connection existed with the residents often despite the stretched resources, management demands, and no doubt their own Financial exigencies. A good manager with rapport with personnel did seem to bring about a more satisfied atmosphere, with patients, nurses and carers.

All the best to Beagle too. At the end of the day, you remember the great carers who had an especial connection with your family member. It makes such a difference to everyone.

[macduffy]

Now, how about some discussion on the investment merits of OCA? I hold and reckon prospects are good.

:)

[winner69]

Now, how about some discussion on the investment merits of OCA? I hold and reckon prospects are good.

:)

Suppose it’s an average sort of hold .....not good and not bad ...just average

[macduffy]

Suppose it’s an average sort of hold .....not good and not bad ...just average

Should have seen that coming!

:laugh:

[flyinglizard]

11846

To deal with staff/resident ratio issue, if there is a something like occupants satisfaction survey from industry association would be good.

OCA only has 2 reserved land for future development, its debt ratio is 61.57%, so it needs to purchase more sections to match its ambitious plan.

The current SP is ok for long term, but I would not put all eggs into this one.

[Snoopy]

Why have you assumed the distribution is Gaussian?
If the distribution for age care workers is non-Gaussian, justakiwi could be correct.




If we use however any objective measurement to measure human performance, than it will follow a normal distribution, as does intelligence, attitude, creativity and various human moods) - i.e. Gauss curve does apply. I can't see why age care workers would be exempt from the rules of maths. Can you?


BlackPeter, I think you have fallen into a 'rules of maths' trap into which I have seen many highly competent and well educated people fall. I will use the intelligence test as an example as you can set an IQ test for people and derive numerical results. To do the same for 'attitude' and 'creativity' introduces a whole other level of debate into this argument, where I don't want to go!

Let's say you set out to measure the IQ of all of the care workers in NZ rest homes. Now before I go any further I am not suggesting that the competence or not of rest home workers should be judged on IQ. I am just using IQ as one human variable which has a track record of being possible to measure to illustrate my point.

The result of such an exercise will produce an average IQ for each rest home. If you then plot these individual averages on a linear scale you will get something that starts to look like a gaussian or as it is more commonly referred to 'normal distribution'. (actually I like the term 'gaussian distribution' better because normal has other meanings outside of statistics).

We expect this because of something called the 'central limit theorem':

"the average of many samples (observations) of a random variable with finite mean and variance is itself a random variable whose distribution converges to a normal distribution as the number of samples increases."

However, and here is the really important bit, this does not mean that the individual pieces of primary data (in this case the individual IQ score of each care worker in a particular rest home) form a gaussian distribution. It could be rectangular , triangular some other pattern or random. The 'central limit theorem' will follow even if the IQs of careworkers follow a rectangular distribution in one rest home, a triangular distribution in another and form a random distribution in another. The central limit theorem will see that a linear graph of averages converges to a gaussian distribution. But it says nothing at all about the distribution of IQ at any individual rest home.

So Tideman is right. You should not have assumed that the distribution of any particular human characteristic at any particular rest home is 'normal'.

SNOOPY

[Leftfield]

So Tideman is right. You should not have assumed that the distribution of any particular human characteristic at any particular rest home is 'normal'.
SNOOPY

Nor should you assume any posters on this thread are 'normal'!! lol.:eek2:

[flyinglizard]

A care unit in a Christchurch retirement village has gone into lockdown after "several residents" began displaying symptoms of a respiratory illness.https://www.newshub.co.nz/home/new-zealand/2020/08/christchurch-retirement-village-in-lockdown-after-several-residents-display-respiratory-illness-symptoms.html

[Paradox]

A care unit in a Christchurch retirement village has gone into lockdown after "several residents" began displaying symptoms of a respiratory illness.https://www.newshub.co.nz/home/new-zealand/2020/08/christchurch-retirement-village-in-lockdown-after-several-residents-display-respiratory-illness-symptoms.html

Village Palms

[winner69]

Village Palms

Not an Oceania one is it?

Hope it's only the flu or something

[Beagle]

Not an Oceania one is it?

Hope it's only the flu or something

Privately owned. Scroll down for owners. https://thevillagepalms.co.nz/

[BlackPeter]

Privately owned. Scroll down for owners. https://thevillagepalms.co.nz/

Not too far from Rosewood (just a seven minute drive). Lets hope it is just the flu.

[justakiwi]

Chances are it’s your usual winter coughs and colds or the flu. We usually have at least one resident with a cold at any given time. Unless someone has been into the home who has been overseas, or near someone who has, there is probably no need to panic. My GP was telling me just the other day, there are a lot of “bugs” around right now - par for the course for winter.


Not too far from Rosewood (just a seven minute drive). Lets hope it is just the flu.

[Tradernoob]

Red blood flooding the market tomorrow

[Waltzing]

sell of tomorrow?

[Paradox]

sell of tomorrow?

Time to top up ...

[Beagle]

They managed to cope last time and they will manage this time. By my estimations OCA broke even during the last quarter of the year when they were affected by the various stages of lockdown.
In simple terms if they're earning about 10 cps underlying this year another lockdown event of a similar magnitude, (if its gets that severe) would mean they will earn about 7 cps this year instead of 10 cps. There may well be irrational selling of some shares tomorrow but before anyone panics think of this. The American market is close to an all time record high despite there being 5 million cases there.
The Australian market is trucking along fine despite the problems in Victoria. OCA can break even during a lockdown because much of its revenue is from Government funded care and the sale of care suites will be unaffected as per last time. Its just three days at this stage and just in Auckland and OCA has facilities throughout N.Z.

[Waltzing]

buying DIP perhaps....

and some other stocks...hopefully ... been awaiting..

it shows that no border policy is going to keep this little beastie out for ever...

the family had a lot of connections across auckland.

Sweden got it almost right after all except retirement homes.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=oeAN8Xxz0q4&fbclid=IwAR3Xx-9dao6msQK9o-4LIm67BeeSVI_ZFUiFrrdFysH3zqmR8Z0a7JE490M

it might not be the last....huge border screening technologies will be required to keep it out.. good luck.. NZ will have to tech this up the ...many millions will have to be spent at the borders... every border..panic in auckland super markets already..

dollar dipping already...pacific links gone..

https://www.stuff.co.nz/business/122417578/nz-dollar-dips-markets-brace-for-tough-day-after-covids-return

this has a huge link area...

[Playa]

I think hiring a few cruise ships and using them as quarantine facilities is the way to go.Not so easy to escape and easier to police

[macduffy]

I think hiring a few cruise ships and using them as quarantine facilities is the way to go.Not so easy to escape and easier to police

Except it has been demonstrated that cruise ships make great incubators of the virus!

[Maverick]

They managed to cope last time and they will manage this time. By my estimations OCA broke even during the last quarter of the year when they were affected by the various stages of lockdown.
In simple terms if they're earning about 10 cps underlying this year another lockdown event of a similar magnitude, (if its gets that severe) would mean they will earn about 7 cps this year instead of 10 cps. There may well be irrational selling of some shares tomorrow but before anyone panics think of this. The American market is close to an all time record high despite there being 5 million cases there.
The Australian market is trucking along fine despite the problems in Victoria. OCA can break even during a lockdown because much of its revenue is from Government funded care and the sale of care suites will be unaffected as per last time. Its just three days at this stage and just in Auckland and OCA has facilities throughout N.Z.
That is marvellous post Beagle. Somes it up well.
If it's the company fundamentals we are thinking of then longer term this is no worries.
If it's the short term share price we are thinking of then IMO this round won't be a fraction as bad as last time. Your points are excellent about overseas indexes setting a good example and we now have our own template of what share prices did last time.
This time round we will have all the sharsies guys leaping in supporting the price with great FOMO after making easy coin last time , they'll not want to miss out round 2.
Also last time we had a loose 300m of shares from MAQs recent sell down which are bedded in this time.
I personally can't see nearly the panic this time happening. Besides , NZ has been back at work 3 months now so the general (employed) population are probably quietly looking forward to a wee lockdown about now.

[Waltzing]

its the retails that will drop...the FOMO will be over on them..this is a short drop only. Unless ... no idea where it came from? yes right.... i think the family member knows exactly where they have been or they have come into contact will someone at the borders and that mean its on the lose and wild fire...

[bottomfeeder]

Cant see 3 days being enough to contain this outbreak. I think that it will be extended and could go up to 3 weeks. Could go downt to 80 cents.

[bull....]

massive sells coming on looks like about a 10% drop i guess

[nevchev]

Back under a buck!Here we go again

[bull....]

Back under a buck!Here we go again

yep said a while ago it wasnt worth more than a buck

[justakiwi]

I think the 3 days is just give them time to contact trace and hopefully find some connection to overseas travel somewhere. If they find that, it’s not community spread after all, and we will go back to normal. If they can’t find that evidence, the assumption will be that it’s community spread, and the levels may well increase/extend.


Cant see 3 days being enough to contain this outbreak. I think that it will be extended and could go up to 3 weeks. Could go downt to 80 cents.

[nevchev]

If its in this family then its community spread!I agree with bf,it will take longer than 3 days to sort

[Davexl]

Damn! No spare cash...
Thanks for your kind words too Beagle and for putting the Oceania situ into perspective. Will have to sit this one out...

[bull....]

breaking news all rest homes going into lock down i believe

[Beagle]

massive sells coming on looks like about a 10% drop i guess


yep said a while ago it wasnt worth more than a buck


breaking news all rest homes going into lock down i believe

Please take some time to think deeply about why on a repetitive basis you seem to take such delight in seeing others suffer when the shares go down.

[Waltzing]

yes... at least buy something like KMD..... no dont!!!!

DISC: i have not bought OCA today.. KMD yes.

just placed an OCA.

5 screens up... 6th is threading up now...interface bindings connecting.

[Leftfield]

breaking news all rest homes going into lock down i believe

Prudent move IMHO.

[Davexl]

Let's be kind out there folks - please...

[Entrep]

Please take some time to think deeply about why on a repetitive basis you seem to take such delight in seeing others suffer when the shares go down.

Where's the delight exactly? Bears get roasted when the price goes up and roasted when the price goes down.

[tommy_d]

took the opportunity to buy a few more, might have even hit the dip, wait and see i guess

[+++++]

took the opportunity to buy a few more, might have even hit the dip, wait and see i guess

Ill opt to wait and see how the next couple of weeks pan out. Wholeheartedly hope for the best. Especially regarding the potential health risks concerning the vulnerable. The $$$ seem secondary at this point in the scheme of things. I hope OCA along with all providers keep this threat from their door.

[winner69]

Shareprice could even end up for the day

[Snow Leopard]

...

5 screens up... 6th is threading up now...interface bindings connecting.

Your posts read like excerpts from a Neal Asher (https://www.nealasher.co.uk/) novel.

[Beagle]

Not the cataclysmic collapse some were hoping for.

[Waltzing]

thanks for shares at 95 .. MR B is right on the scent of .. ah money...long term that is...if anyone want to sell even lower as the virus spread south now at rotorua by saturday... and from there it travelled too ? testing SWWAPPED in the central areas...

[Waltzing]

"Your posts read like excerpts from a Neal Asher (https://www.nealasher.co.uk/) novel."

thanks my history professor said id be a writer.... i was horrified coming from a law and accounting family... i changed to business Dip as soon as i could... mistake?

i tested the binding interfaces for 4 years before realising that if we short circuited the script object pathways in the tokenising parser in the early version we could speed up the execution paths making it more like a JIT compiled javascript but still pure runtime.....

i was supposed to return to sweden this winter to demo down in holland...but we are stuck here... buying and selling OCA! Before the sweds do... according to some.

[dreamcatcher]

".but we are stuck here... buying and selling OCA! Before the sweds do... according to some.

Imagine OCA expensive @ $1.00 for the Swedes after only offering $6 for MET ............ what are peoples thoughts on any T/O price ?

[Davexl]

"Your posts read like excerpts from a Neal Asher (https://www.nealasher.co.uk/) novel."

thanks my history professor said id be a writer.... i was horrified coming from a law and accounting family... i changed to business Dip as soon as i could... mistake?

i tested the binding interfaces for 4 years before realising that if we short circuited the script object pathways in the tokenising parser in the early version we could speed up the execution paths making it more like a JIT compiled javascript but still pure runtime.....



Ahhh, such music to my ears, to think I used to understand such things a little, a long, long time ago - Sigh...:)

[Waltzing]

"Imagine OCA expensive @ $1.00 for the Swedes after only offering $6 for MET ............ what are peoples thoughts on any T/O price ?"

they would want to swallow more in new zealand? is MET not enough?

takes a lot of work to take over an operation and then retake risk on another purchase from the far side of the moon... i mean earth... northern lights flickering in a dim dark winter...

swedish winters are dominated by the saying you wont see many people out and about. Brains slow down in winter and in the summer the sweds are out in the sun.

Right now i think they are busy in the sun and trying to stay alive. One viking raid into the south pacific is about as far as a long boat can sail at a time.

[850man]

Paying 16% less than NTA for MET so not good news if they were to approach OCA. Saying that, MET directors let it go at that price which is the most disappointing.

[bull....]

Paying 16% less than NTA for MET so not good news if they were to approach OCA. Saying that, MET directors let it go at that price which is the most disappointing.

yep met has set a benchmark.

OCA at a 95c NTA less 16% ( being the met pricing) means OCA should be a takeover offer at 80c .

but we all know takeovers come when prices are low generally so OCA will probably only attract a takeover when it trades in the 60c - 70c range by my thinking.

By my calc anything over a dollar was very expensive

[flyinglizard]

yep met has set a benchmark.

OCA at a 95c NTA less 16% ( being the met pricing) means OCA should be a takeover offer at 80c .

but we all know takeovers come when prices are low generally so OCA will probably only attract a takeover when it trades in the 60c - 70c range by my thinking.

By my calc anything over a dollar was very expensive

OMG, do you really believe OCA that bad? The weekly chart indicates that price range though. :scared:

[Waltzing]

well there still plenty of support at 95 and 70 cents is based on what profit modelling? and dividend. next support level is 90. 3.5% is the new 5% and if rates go negative next year that just reaffirms the return cents per share.

By next summer if vaccines arrive i dont see 60-70 cents with a 3.5 Percent payout.

i dont think the board will roll over like MET did.

MR B will be like to dog to bone and maul the board...

[bull....]

OMG, do you really believe OCA that bad? The weekly chart indicates that price range though. :scared:

just thinking based on the that discount to nta 850man was talking about. cant really see oca at 70c unless a big covid outbreak happens probably more than likely do what its been doing for years. go sideways

[dreamcatcher]

yep met has set a benchmark.

OCA at a 95c NTA less 16% ( being the met pricing) means OCA should be a takeover offer at 80c .

but we all know takeovers come when prices are low generally so OCA will probably only attract a takeover when it trades in the 60c - 70c range by my thinking.

By my calc anything over a dollar was very expensive


Your on to it...... they say every seller has a buyer but I try not to sell my winners

[flyinglizard]

70c is the extreme case, just like you said. According to my system, it may test 0.88c recently, where shows strong supports.

[Snow Leopard]

....
i tested the binding interfaces for 4 years before realising that if we short circuited the script object pathways in the tokenising parser in the early version we could speed up the execution paths making it more like a JIT compiled javascript but still pure runtime.....
....

So are we talking LR(1) Parser on a Domain Specific Language direct to Virtual Machine Intermediate Language then?

[bull....]

70c is the extreme case, just like you said. According to my system, it may test 0.88c recently, where shows strong supports.

i brought just above that level last dip for a profitable trade , but dont own anymore as above a dollar is expensive to me in todays environment

[Beagle]

well there still plenty of support at 95 and 70 cents is based on what profit modelling? and dividend. next support level is 90. 3.5% is the new 5% and if rates go negative next year that just reaffirms the return cents per share.

By next summer if vaccines arrive i dont see 60-70 cents with a 3.5 Percent payout.

i dont think the board will roll over like MET did.

MR B will be like to dog to bone and maul the board...

I'll borrow Mrs B's nail file and specially sharpen up my claws :)

All the doomsday talk is monotonous and bores me to tears to say the least. What we have here is a very resilient business, on the lowest PE in the sector which excellent long term demand, strong demographic trends and strong long term growth potential trading on a PE that's about one third of the market average. If some can't see the opportunity after all I have posted already, that's their problem not mine.

[bottomfeeder]

NTA is artificially low, due to date of valuation, ie pre 31 May. So hard to rely upon that as a basis for SP valuation.

[Beagle]

Let's be kind out there folks - please...

Amen to that.

[Baa_Baa]

If some can't see the opportunity after all I have posted already, that's their problem not mine.

Don't let the Trader wind you up, there's no point in arguing a 'value' opportunity vs a 'trade' opportunity. Clearly the Trader made a few bucks last time OCA SP dropped (got in quite late though, slow mover), and is happy to talk down the SP for another trade ... just like every other stock he Trades. Transparent like a pane in the glass.

[davflaws]

I'll borrow Mrs B's nail file and specially sharpen up my claws :)



Unless you are planning a "Judith Collins", I think there is a danger of some inter species confusion here.

[bull....]

Don't let the Trader wind you up, there's no point in arguing a 'value' opportunity vs a 'trade' opportunity. Clearly the Trader made a few bucks last time OCA SP dropped (got in quite late though, slow mover), and is happy to talk down the SP for another trade ... just like every other stock he Trades. Transparent like a pane in the glass.

vrs a buy and hold investor who is down 27% YTD on this stock , im guessing like yourself.

actually even buy and hold investors know when value has been exceeded and will sell when there valuation has been reached. the fact the market price has never really had a upwards trajectory tells you the market values OCA in a range between certain levels. So smart investors would trade the range or invest the range not live in hope.

[Baa_Baa]

vrs a buy and hold investor who is down 27% YTD on this stock , im guessing like yourself.

Yeah nah, chart was obvious screaming buy, bought a truckload at stupid low prices, so average is very nice thank you for asking. If it bombs again, I have another truck.

[Beagle]

Don't let the Trader wind you up, there's no point in arguing a 'value' opportunity vs a 'trade' opportunity. Clearly the Trader made a few bucks last time OCA SP dropped (got in quite late though, slow mover), and is happy to talk down the SP for another trade ... just like every other stock he Trades. Transparent like a pane in the glass.

Thank goodness for the ignore button lol

[bull....]

Yeah nah, chart was obvious screaming buy, bought a truckload at stupid low prices, so average is very nice thank you for asking. If it bombs again, I have another truck.

good for you , buts whats your valuation? that you consider it expensive. must have a plan surely charts show nothing but sideways movement so im guessing your basing yourself on fundamentals.

the only people i can re call to provide there guesses on valuation are myself , beagle and maverick anyone else i missed please speak up

[Baa_Baa]

good for you , buts whats your valuation? that you consider it expensive. must have a plan surely charts show nothing but sideways movement so im guessing your basing yourself on fundamentals

You do a lot of guessing, wrongly, maybe you should spend your time looking for a decent trading stock, this one is useless for trading, unless you truely think your jawboning moves markets .. LOL, or there's another market bomb coming. I have another truck.

[bull....]

You do a lot of guessing, wrongly, maybe you should spend your time looking for a decent trading stock, this one is useless for trading, unless you truely think your jawboning moves markets .. LOL, or there's another market bomb coming. I have another truck.

this stock is very good for trading , all thru this thread i have admitted trading it at various times ,
but still whats your valuation to sell at. if you dont have a valuation did you just invest for the dividend?

[Entrep]

https://cleanshot-cloud-fra.s3.eu-central-1.amazonaws.com/media/3094/n68uXBUkeXmzGavY4VmQFcJOwlAHZgD4nUA1IsVx.jpeg?X-Amz-Content-Sha256=UNSIGNED-PAYLOAD&X-Amz-Algorithm=AWS4-HMAC-SHA256&X-Amz-Credential=AKIA5MF2VVMNBYBOTT5A%2F20200813%2Feu-central-1%2Fs3%2Faws4_request&X-Amz-Date=20200813T013559Z&X-Amz-SignedHeaders=host&X-Amz-Expires=300&X-Amz-Signature=d06a52fc92ece812cfbd8e4b521d2e001459b6c1 e6be1203d8f78beae57999af
gapsssssss

[allfromacell]

this stock is very good for trading , all thru this thread i have admitted trading it at various times ,
but still whats your valuation to sell at. if you dont have a valuation did you just invest for the dividend?

When's hammer time commencing? Waiting to top up some more but don't wanna go too early. 13 new cases should surely drop us a few more cents but I guess the market see's this as mostly priced in.

[bull....]

When's hammer time commencing? Waiting to top up some more but don't wanna go too early. 13 new cases should surely drop us a few more cents but I guess the market see's this as mostly priced in.

well i see covid cases are spreading from the news reports today and they are expecting it to get worse. a unidentified resthome in hamilton is infected they said but wont say who. so im sitting watching how it unfolds and following the charts.
i dont think a worse case is priced in at all , more likely best case and this probably is all retirement stocks not just oca who are at risk

[allfromacell]

well i see covid cases are spreading from the news reports today and they are expecting it to get worse. a unidentified resthome in hamilton is infected they said but wont say who. so im sitting watching how it unfolds and following the charts.
i dont think a worse case is priced in at all , more likely best case and this probably is all retirement stocks not just oca who are at risk

Fair enough, slight correction there is no one confirmed infected rather a confirmed case visited a family member at the rest home yesterday (while asymptomatic).

[Beat the Bank]

well i see covid cases are spreading from the news reports today and they are expecting it to get worse. a unidentified resthome in hamilton is infected they said but wont say who. so im sitting watching how it unfolds and following the charts.
i dont think a worse case is priced in at all , more likely best case and this probably is all retirement stocks not just oca who are at risk
The property concerned is not known to be infected (at this point) and a test has come back negative, likely to be the relative visited. Seems some of you are keen to knock down the price to buy more by creating some panic in here. Ummmm. Be kind.

[Waltzing]

Vols :
OCA and GMT hit over 1 million shares vol today. Certainly a few buyers who see value in both today.

virus:
there was always going to be a potential 200 cases or 300 cases. It certainly not good but there was always going to be a leak and a scamble to contain it.

script runtimes:
"to the SNOW CAT" im not the engineer who created it , but it not a DSL, it can operate as standalone or embedded and is non typed without a JIT." im also covered by non disclosures. However the fact thats it stand alone as well should give the hint to real power of extension across any device and OS.

[Cyclical]

well i see covid cases are spreading from the news reports today and they are expecting it to get worse. a unidentified resthome in hamilton is infected they said but wont say who. so im sitting watching how it unfolds and following the charts.
i dont think a worse case is priced in at all , more likely best case and this probably is all retirement stocks not just oca who are at risk


Fair enough, slight correction there is no one confirmed infected rather a confirmed case visited a family member at the rest home yesterday (while asymptomatic).

It needs a little embellishment in order to give it that distinct waft of bulls...

[tommy_d]

good for you , buts whats your valuation? that you consider it expensive. must have a plan surely charts show nothing but sideways movement so im guessing your basing yourself on fundamentals.

the only people i can re call to provide there guesses on valuation are myself , beagle and maverick anyone else i missed please speak up
over-valued at $1.10, under-valued at $0.85= clear buy/sell markers. Within that range it's less simple. I bought more in the 90s yesterday.

[Waltzing]

Is OCA now a bond proxy. Yields on bonds are down as share prices are increasing and inflation is static. Answer No.

[tommy_d]

Is OCA now a bond proxy.
depends on time-horizons

[dreamcatcher]

After dumping some at $1.31 balance remaining cost 70c ..................appears good trading stock as heaps of seller/buyers daily.

Unimpressed but still holding, not interested in buying more presently

[Beagle]

over-valued at $1.10, under-valued at $0.85= clear buy/sell markers. Within that range it's less simple. I bought more in the 90s yesterday.

For me valuation must be contextualized by its peer group, the market overall, overseas markets and is a function of ultra low interest rates.
Covid adjusted I see a forward PE of only 10, the lowest in the sector, about one third of the forward PE of the NZX50. Even the US market S&P 500 with interest rates at 100 year lows is on a forward PE of 26 and that country is riddled with over five million cases. OCA is probably the best value stock on the NZX50 with amongst the best growth profiles but also has strong defensive properties.

[Leftfield]

After dumping some at $1.31 balance remaining cost 70c ..................appears good trading stock as heaps of seller/buyers daily.

Quite amazing trading well done!!.......particularly as OCA hasn't traded at $1.31 lately??.... perhaps you mean $1.03?

[Waltzing]

prehaps is sold back in early january when we sold also for 1.30.. lost the profit later in AIR..... easy come $$$$ easy go!!!!!

[dreamcatcher]

[QUOTE=Left field;836070]Quite amazing trading well done!!.......particularly as OCA hasn't traded at $1.31 lately??.... perhaps you mean $1.03?[Walt/QUOTE]

Waltzingironmansinlgescul is correct sold 27th Dec. personally don't trade just make a one-of-sale, price permitting to reduce original holdings cost balance LTH

[Leftfield]

Waltzingironmansinlgescul is correct sold 27th Dec. personally don't trade just make a one-of-sale, price permitting to reduce original holdings cost balance LTH

Thanks for explaining. You're 'well positioned' with DCA around 70c. Well done.

[Waltzing]

According to the Beagle, a dollar is cheap in 5 years. You may well find that a dollar was so cheap you will be kicking yourself and the Beagle will be unable to eat all the bones in his dog bowl......

[Leftfield]

According to the Beagle, a dollar is cheap in 5 years. You may well find that a dollar was so cheap you will be kicking yourself and the Beagle will be unable to eat all the bones in his dog bowl......

No prob's there, my av holding SP 81c. ;)
It's all about DCA IMHO, I started buying 13 May 2020 around 75c and as the SP moves up over the next 5 yrs I aim to keep averaging up, (keeping a nice safety moat.) OCA only 3% of my portfolio at this stage.

[Waltzing]

retirement villages are not as safe as we thought as the hamilton breach indicates. The government does not have the testing supplies needed to test front line staff often enough and have misled the public. The uni science group i hang out with socially informed me of there labs being searched for supplies after we got to level 2. They must be running low on supplies or rationing it. Its not life as usual and i dont know why they let the population lose in the first place.... Think Victory Lap NZ ....ah NO. They cant pull this everytime not sure why the market hasnt sold off. Next Time.

[Leftfield]

retirement villages are not as safe as we thought as the hamilton breach indicates. The government does not have the testing supplies needed to test front line staff often enough and have misled the public. The uni science group i hang out with socially informed me of there labs being searched for supplies after we got to level 2. They must be running low on supplies or rationing it. Its not life as usual and i dont know why they let the population lose in the first place.... Think Victory Lap NZ ....ah NO. They cant pull this everytime not sure why the market hasnt sold off. Next Time.

Property prices/values up 15% year on year.... see Winner's post on the SUM thread.

All good to hold as part of a well balanced portfolio.

If OCA drops below 80c I'll simply add more to my collection. Life is good! ;)

[bottomfeeder]

retirement villages are not as safe as we thought as the hamilton breach indicates. The government does not have the testing supplies needed to test front line staff often enough and have misled the public. The uni science group i hang out with socially informed me of there labs being searched for supplies after we got to level 2. They must be running low on supplies or rationing it. Its not life as usual and i dont know why they let the population lose in the first place.... Think Victory Lap NZ ....ah NO. They cant pull this everytime not sure why the market hasnt sold off. Next Time.

Covid does not affect the performance of lifestyle villages. Any extra costs which are covid related will eventually be passed onto residents. How can any residents expect an operator to spend on additional measures to protect their residents and absorb those costs. The tsunami of new residents will not stop. Property prices seem to have firmed. Inflationery pressures will increase prices as well. I would like to know how in the long term lifestyle villages will be adversely affected.

[Waltzing]

sorry i ment sell off in NZX in general if there is another round of level 4. But if you want really fast returns than Nvidia.

im fully aware of the effect of QE on the property market from the last GFC. There has been no inflation now since i cant remember when.

[BlackPeter]

sorry i ment sell off in NZX in general if there is another round of level 4. But if you want really fast returns than Nvidia.

im fully aware of the effect of QE on the property market from the last GFC. There has been no inflation now since i cant remember when.

You seem to have a short memory. Asset prices of all sorts are widely inflated. Gold is ways more expensive than a year ago. Real Estate prices did shoot through the roof. Prices for council services cranking up every year by 4 to 5 %, and so do insurance premiums (often by more). Most shares are much more expensive than they used to be a couple of years ago ... and while I have no clue how the department of lies and statistics can't fathom an inflation in the prices of consumer goods: most groceries are getting more expensive as well: Just check the prices for e.g. cheese - butter - bread - milk - wine ...

Inflation is rampant. We just choose to ignore it.

[Waltzing]

You can go and argue that with OECD economic statistic departments.

https://www.bea.gov/

https://www.commerce.gov/data-and-reports/economic-indicators

sorry this is off topic.

or over as cup of tea as to GDP methods with Prof Ms Warring. Author of "Accounting for Nothing"

[macduffy]

Inflation is rampant. We just choose to ignore it.

Quite so, BlackPeter. The dramatic slide in the price pf oil has blinded the statistics to the fact that most other commodities and services continue to cost more - houses, rents, insurance, rates - for starters.

[Waltzing]

Houses are not consumed, CPI is a consumption index.

You will need to create a new index and i think you will find that a lot harder then it looks. Good luck tell me in the next universe when you succeed.

[BlackPeter]

Houses are not consumed, CPI is a consumption index.

You will need to create a new index and i think you will find that a lot harder then it looks. Good luck tell me in the next universe when you succeed.

Quite meaningless index then, given that the cost of housing (no matter whether it is rent or the cost of ownership) are for many households the biggest expense they have ...

[Mr Slothbear]

You seem to have a short memory. Asset prices of all sorts are widely inflated. Gold is ways more expensive than a year ago. Real Estate prices did shoot through the roof. Prices for council services cranking up every year by 4 to 5 %, and so do insurance premiums (often by more). Most shares are much more expensive than they used to be a couple of years ago ... and while I have no clue how the department of lies and statistics can't fathom an inflation in the prices of consumer goods: most groceries are getting more expensive as well: Just check the prices for e.g. cheese - butter - bread - milk - wine ...

Inflation is rampant. We just choose to ignore it.


absolutely correct.

luxuries and nice to have have been getting significantly cheaper for equivelant good / service e.g Flights, Computers and any tech including phones, media like movies, netflix, news etc...

meanwhile the must-haves have exploded in price as Macduffy has said rent, house prices, rates etc...

there is insufficient weighting of these more important or ‘base’ goods when it comes to measuring inflation. The stats models have been entirely unreflective of reality.



i’ll also add that a family member of mine who is a licensed real estate agent sold a house yesterday in christchurch for 300k over the sellers asking price going for 1.15m. Crazy

[winner69]

Wonder what OCA’s RR-EBITDAPCA currently is

Analysts mightn’t like what they see

Could be why share price struggling to get any real upward momentum.

[Waltzing]

can you calc that for us from the FA statements? are they that accurate? has the current situation distorted the numbers? for OCA long term averages as they are a model under constant change? should this not be seen over a 10 year view?

MAV seems to have a comprehensive model.

This is also why i dont think the Viking want this share as its just hard to value.

[tommy_d]

over-valued at $1.10, under-valued at $0.85= clear buy/sell markers. Within that range it's less simple. I bought more in the 90s yesterday.
enjoying the bounce.

[Beagle]

Wonder what OCA’s RR-EBITDAPCA currently is

Analysts mightn’t like what they see

Could be why share price struggling to get any real upward momentum.

What is this new measurement basis you have come up with or are you taking the proverbial ?

[peat]

RR-EBITDAPCA (Run Rate of EBITDA, pre-COVID adjusted).

[Beagle]

RR-EBITDAPCA (Run Rate of EBITDA, pre-COVID adjusted).

I'm so "happy"...another yardstick to use to help us understand OCA's accounts that are so easily comprehensible already :rolleyes:

I think I will leave that to others and stick with my strategy of using underlying profit adjusted for Covid. I am happy with that methodology and think its important one doesn't get affected by PBEAS, (Paralysis by endless analysis syndrome).

[peat]

On finding that out I also found a cool boat
11857

[Beagle]

lol...now you're talking my language :)

[Baa_Baa]

I'm so "happy"...another yardstick to use to help us understand OCA's accounts that are so easily comprehensible already :rolleyes:

I think I will leave that to others and stick with my strategy of using underlying profit adjusted for Covid. I am happy with that methodology and think its important one doesn't get affected by PBEAS, (Paralysis by endless analysis syndrome).

I confess it’s hard to fathom why a solid company would trade below the value of all its assets. Like if it shut down and sold everything, shareholders would get paid out more than the value of their current holdings. Someday this will re rate to a much higher multiple, when punters figure out the massive discount to asset value let alone the future trading value.

[Greekwatchdog]

Couldn't agree more. So much negativity around OCA. Let Earl and the Team execute and then judge.

[Waltzing]

"Run Rate of EBITDA, pre-COVID adjusted"

IM completely confused now and i thought i was confused before but now ive realised im only half as confused as im going to be!!!!

[Beagle]

I confess it’s hard to fathom why a solid company would trade below the value of all its assets. Like if it shut down and sold everything, shareholders would get paid out more than the value of their current holdings. Someday this will re rate to a much higher multiple, when punters figure out the massive discount to asset value let alone the future trading value.

I feel your frustration mate and I share it. I vented some of my frustration in the SUM thread this morning because I see real risk to the downside there....(doing my good Samaritan deed for the day)...now I better do some real work because I think the likelihood of easy gains for the market for the rest of 2020 at least, is slim to none.
Lockdown in Auckland yet again, is grueling to say the least.

[macduffy]

I wouldn't get too hung up on the apparent discrepancy between shareprice and NAV. Assets don't always fetch their assessed valuation in a shut down/ liquidation, depending on the circumstances at the time. I hold OCA and am confident its value will be recognised.

[Maverick]

11846

To deal with staff/resident ratio issue, if there is a something like occupants satisfaction survey from industry association would be good.

OCA only has 2 reserved land for future development, its debt ratio is 61.57%, so it needs to purchase more sections to match its ambitious plan.

The current SP is ok for long term, but I would not put all eggs into this one.
FL, let me explain why OCA shouldn't and are even unable to go out and buy more sections to continue their model as you suggest.

Don't be offended but it seems very very few investors actually get the OCA model and where the bulk of the profits are actually going to come from.
We all accept OCA is the most care focused of its peers and therefore will succeed/fail compared to its peers via the "care suit ORA model" (i.e high churn DMFs)....While this is partially true it's actually proving to be a red herring. It's not where the lion's share of profitability will come from at all.

What OCA is doing goes way beyond offering high end late stage care. Let's single out Hamilton "Awatere" as a current example but the model can be applied to any of their pipeline projects.
Here goes….
-Awatere stopped taking on clients to partially empty the village to clear a corner area of ground. Care revenue naturally fell while expenses didn't, investors got grumpy and staffing costs appeared out of control as employees were inefficiently retained.(apparently it's hard to recruit new retirement village staff)
-They built a care-suite block in the now empty corner of the operating village site. This took them a couple of years which now stands proudly overlooking Hamilton and is very classy.
-On its recent completion, all the remaining 60 village residents were then transferred into it but at no extra charge under the grandfather principle. Lucky for them but investors are still not feeling the love.
-As the original clients now slowly vacate the care suits they are being refilled with full paying new clients under the ORA system - investment rewards are ramping up but still seem hopelessly slow. Winner has correctly pointed out many times in the past, “OCA selling more but making less”
-When the care suit block eventually fully replenishes with full paying clients this village eventually ends up twice as profitable than the original old govt DHB funded rest home that was there. BTW ,I spoke to a care worker onsite last week and she said there is plenty of uptake from new full fare clients wanting in.

OCA has currently got only one mature new build care suit; Eden-Auckland. the other aggregate OCA developments are still a few years away from any meaningful investment reward actually showing up on the bottom line. Earl, Beagle and myself are now saying we are currently at the point of “inflection”, that is...overall it ain't getting any worse from here. Care profits will finally start to show improvement from now on. To be fair though, it will still take a few more years just to improve care profits to where they once started.

On pipeline completion of all OCA projects, “care profits” will only have approximately doubled over the circa 7-9 years of transformation, according to my figures. As we have experienced to date, there is currently a large destruction of overall care profits.
I`ve got to admit it's just not that compelling as an investment to bother with, to go through this hassle and pain. That's only a final outcome of CAGR about 10% for the grief, so why not just buy RYM or SUM with their proven record for at least the same ROI?

Back to Awatere as our example, now this is where things get exciting….
They have since demolished the vacated old rest home buildings and by no accident,ended up with a sizable area of empty, premium land all consented as a retirement village in the very heart of Hamilton CBD with enviable views of the city….drum roll please….FOR FREE!
-OCA is currently building a tower of high density apartments on this empty dirt.
-These apartments will certainly sell for a premium (aka-whatever they want) under the ORA model once complete.
This is where OCA will make the vast majority of their profits of the transformation....its the apartments, not the care-suites.
The difference between the OCA “village” section of profits from beginning to end of the pipeline is staggering and completely dwarfs my anticipated 100% improvement in “care” earnings. As much as I have shared my ongoing workings on ST to date, I will keep this particular figure to myself.

Interestingly , OCA`s NZ wide “care-suite new builds” pipeline (not to be confused with “care-suite conversions” which sound similar but model quite differently as those are really just a clever makeover) are largely either now complete or well under way. The mega-profitable apartment developments obviously have had to wait for the land to be cleared first which means building the reasonably profitable care-suites first. It is becoming clear to see OCA`s development build programmes are currently morphing from care-suite heavy to the apartment delivery phase.

So getting back to your comment FL, that's why OCA can't go out and buy a paddock to build a village. They only want premium land already in the existing wealthy areas with a point of difference, that is not in the “burbs” or on the edge of town. (check out the photos in yesterdays SUM`s HY report and notice all the paddocks in the background of its new villages to compare.)

Another work in progress is Green Gables in Nelson...down there you have SUM and ARV building villages in the suburbs in neighboring Richmond while OCA are about to open their new 3 story development 300m away from the Nelson CBD. If you were a retired rich-lister, where would you choose?( I do not in any way mean to disparage SUM or ARV developments but just use them as a live comparison for OCAs modus operandi).

This transformation plan from an investment view just requires confidence in the execution of the plan and a load of patience. That is; consent planning, emptying out existing beds, building care suits,(we are here) then building premium apartments and finally selling down.

For anyone following the actual progress of the company and not being distracted by covid or what appears as disappointing underlying earnings , there is now enough compelling evidence of what they are up to and to see it is actually starting to come together.
If a picture tells a thousand words then doing a driveby of a few OCA development sites will help understand their story better.

Disc, this is a basket I personally can't get enough eggs into.

[Greekwatchdog]

Thanks Maverick for such a wonderful explanation on OCA. I said last night judge Earl and the Team on final result and your analysis here confirms it. DISC I hold and are buying more and have thrown these in the bottom draw..

[Baa_Baa]

@Maverick thank you so much for sharing your insights. Love that word ‘inflection’. The future is bright. Assuming continued good execution, the strategy is very exciting for transforming the business model and long term shareholders returns.

[Curly]

Mean while, OCA plus .01, SUM plus .50c today. Patience I guess.

[Waltzing]

Now i know why he calls himself MAV and flys with a high tech vision system in the cockpit. He has a 35,000 foot view of the retirement properties that OCA owns and has a huge computer display with all retirement properties tagged on Google Maps.

[Snow Leopard]

...Don't be offended but it seems very very few investors actually get the OCA model and where the bulk of the profits are actually going to come from....

Don't be offended but it seems you are being very presumptive.

[Beagle]

Top post Mav. As you suggest, there's a lot of classy new high end apartments going to be built in the next few years and the trick for OCA is they're using existing land more efficiently and effectively.

SUM on a forward PE of 18.5 assuming they make $100m this year, OCA on a forward PE of just 10.2 assuming they make $60m underlying this year.
Forward PE of 10.2 is crazy cheap for a company with a clearly defined trajectory of growth.

[Waltzing]

Still costs money to build even if the land is owned. Is there scope for them to increase debt as assets increase and are the conversion costs covered by current and future treasury operations.

[Blue Skies]

Thanks Maverick for sharing such great analysis & insight.
From another long term holder.

[bull....]

FL, let me explain why OCA shouldn't and are even unable to go out and buy more sections to continue their model as you suggest.

Don't be offended but it seems very very few investors actually get the OCA model and where the bulk of the profits are actually going to come from.
We all accept OCA is the most care focused of its peers and therefore will succeed/fail compared to its peers via the "care suit ORA model" (i.e high churn DMFs)....While this is partially true it's actually proving to be a red herring. It's not where the lion's share of profitability will come from at all.

What OCA is doing goes way beyond offering high end late stage care. Let's single out Hamilton "Awatere" as a current example but the model can be applied to any of their pipeline projects.
Here goes….
-Awatere stopped taking on clients to partially empty the village to clear a corner area of ground. Care revenue naturally fell while expenses didn't, investors got grumpy and staffing costs appeared out of control as employees were inefficiently retained.(apparently it's hard to recruit new retirement village staff)
-They built a care-suite block in the now empty corner of the operating village site. This took them a couple of years which now stands proudly overlooking Hamilton and is very classy.
-On its recent completion, all the remaining 60 village residents were then transferred into it but at no extra charge under the grandfather principle. Lucky for them but investors are still not feeling the love.
-As the original clients now slowly vacate the care suits they are being refilled with full paying new clients under the ORA system - investment rewards are ramping up but still seem hopelessly slow. Winner has correctly pointed out many times in the past, “OCA selling more but making less”
-When the care suit block eventually fully replenishes with full paying clients this village eventually ends up twice as profitable than the original old govt DHB funded rest home that was there. BTW ,I spoke to a care worker onsite last week and she said there is plenty of uptake from new full fare clients wanting in.

OCA has currently got only one mature new build care suit; Eden-Auckland. the other aggregate OCA developments are still a few years away from any meaningful investment reward actually showing up on the bottom line. Earl, Beagle and myself are now saying we are currently at the point of “inflection”, that is...overall it ain't getting any worse from here. Care profits will finally start to show improvement from now on. To be fair though, it will still take a few more years just to improve care profits to where they once started.

On pipeline completion of all OCA projects, “care profits” will only have approximately doubled over the circa 7-9 years of transformation, according to my figures. As we have experienced to date, there is currently a large destruction of overall care profits.
I`ve got to admit it's just not that compelling as an investment to bother with, to go through this hassle and pain. That's only a final outcome of CAGR about 10% for the grief, so why not just buy RYM or SUM with their proven record for at least the same ROI?

Back to Awatere as our example, now this is where things get exciting….
They have since demolished the vacated old rest home buildings and by no accident,ended up with a sizable area of empty, premium land all consented as a retirement village in the very heart of Hamilton CBD with enviable views of the city….drum roll please….FOR FREE!
-OCA is currently building a tower of high density apartments on this empty dirt.
-These apartments will certainly sell for a premium (aka-whatever they want) under the ORA model once complete.
This is where OCA will make the vast majority of their profits of the transformation....its the apartments, not the care-suites.
The difference between the OCA “village” section of profits from beginning to end of the pipeline is staggering and completely dwarfs my anticipated 100% improvement in “care” earnings. As much as I have shared my ongoing workings on ST to date, I will keep this particular figure to myself.

Interestingly , OCA`s NZ wide “care-suite new builds” pipeline (not to be confused with “care-suite conversions” which sound similar but model quite differently as those are really just a clever makeover) are largely either now complete or well under way. The mega-profitable apartment developments obviously have had to wait for the land to be cleared first which means building the reasonably profitable care-suites first. It is becoming clear to see OCA`s development build programmes are currently morphing from care-suite heavy to the apartment delivery phase.

So getting back to your comment FL, that's why OCA can't go out and buy a paddock to build a village. They only want premium land already in the existing wealthy areas with a point of difference, that is not in the “burbs” or on the edge of town. (check out the photos in yesterdays SUM`s HY report and notice all the paddocks in the background of its new villages to compare.)

Another work in progress is Green Gables in Nelson...down there you have SUM and ARV building villages in the suburbs in neighboring Richmond while OCA are about to open their new 3 story development 300m away from the Nelson CBD. If you were a retired rich-lister, where would you choose?( I do not in any way mean to disparage SUM or ARV developments but just use them as a live comparison for OCAs modus operandi).

This transformation plan from an investment view just requires confidence in the execution of the plan and a load of patience. That is; consent planning, emptying out existing beds, building care suits,(we are here) then building premium apartments and finally selling down.

For anyone following the actual progress of the company and not being distracted by covid or what appears as disappointing underlying earnings , there is now enough compelling evidence of what they are up to and to see it is actually starting to come together.
If a picture tells a thousand words then doing a driveby of a few OCA development sites will help understand their story better.

Disc, this is a basket I personally can't get enough eggs into.



ill give you an A for a nice marketing ramp.
yep do up the ****t..ers and sell them for a margin no different to a reno but in years to come when this old trick is run out there debt levels restrict any growth at all.

[Waltzing]

If no growth it will become a nice trading stock if debt restricts growth. I suspect MAV has worked out the answer. Thats why the div will not increase but the assets base will allowing for treasury operations. Bonds at % and with negative rates coming who wont want to buy houses with lower rates as mortgage rates are reduced again. Housing price Boom 3.0 coming next 10 years. Conversions of the existing asset base will add value to the balance sheet.

[bull....]

If no growth it will become a nice trading stock if debt restricts growth. I suspect MAV has worked out the answer. Thats why the div will not increase but the assets base will allowing for treasury operations. Bonds at %

the asset base only increases due to revaluations upwards of existing assets , where companies like sum increase there asset base by purchasing new growth

[Shareguy]

Directors top up again at $.99 from the sub-underwriting arrangement with Macquarie Securities (NZ) Limited DRP .

[winner69]

Directors top up again at $.99 from the sub-underwriting arrangement with Macquarie Securities (NZ) Limited DRP .

Just their DRP shares I think so not really ‘topping up’ ..would have taken them even if the DRP wasn’t underwritten

Less for Macquaries to take eh

[Shareguy]

Tomlinson Purchased another million dollars worth of shares plus his normal entitlement under the DRP

[Baa_Baa]

Tomlinson Purchased another million dollars worth of shares plus his normal entitlement under the DRP

Follow the money, always. Especially the insiders money.

[Beagle]

Tomlinson Purchased another million dollars worth of shares plus his normal entitlement under the DRP

Well spotted. For the sake of completeness it might be worth noting Liz Coutts bought another 50,000 shares as part of the sub-underwriting agreement too.
http://nzx-prod-s7fsd7f98s.s3-website-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/attachments/OCA/358376/328866.pdf

I agree 100% Baa Baa.

[Maverick]

The sleep test is a great way of figuring out if you are investing (and you know your investment- and in OCAs case that is very difficult without a load of effort) or you are gambling.
If you can roll your Covid dice for another few weeks (after all , there's been no community transmission for 3 months now) then why not wait to see what the directors do now they have a buying window.

I`ve particularly got an eye on what Greg T does , He`s been with the company from what it was way back then to where it is currently sitting at this stage of its transformation. I've met him only once but and he really impressed me that he knows this puppy inside and out.
Boom !!!!.there's your answer Bottom Feeder when you were wondering if you should reduce your holdings. The above was posted 2 weeks ago and there we go , Greg T sneaks' in another cheeky mill right on cue. ( and we`ve got Covid back:scared:)

[Shareguy]

Yep . Will just have to top up myself.

[bottomfeeder]

Boom !!!!.there's your answer Bottom Feeder when you were wondering if you should reduce your holdings. The above was posted 2 weeks ago and there we go , Greg T sneaks' in another cheeky mill right on cue. ( and we`ve got Covid back:scared:)

Topped up to 145k when it dropped to 95. Onward and Upward,

[Waltzing]

https://www.interest.co.nz/property/106668/auction-room-activity-going-strength-strength-sales-rate-hitting-two-thirds

well if this keeps up....

[winner69]

https://www.interest.co.nz/property/106668/auction-room-activity-going-strength-strength-sales-rate-hitting-two-thirds



well if this keeps up....

Thanks

So good I’ll put on Summerset thread as well ...good news for them

[Blue Skies]

https://www.interest.co.nz/property/106668/auction-room-activity-going-strength-strength-sales-rate-hitting-two-thirds

well if this keeps up....


I know a young couple trying to buy a house in Auckland at moment saying the bidding has been incredibly strong at every auction. i.e. above Real estate agents & vendors expectations.

[Baa_Baa]

https://www.interest.co.nz/property/106668/auction-room-activity-going-strength-strength-sales-rate-hitting-two-thirds

well if this keeps up....

Most will know I’m a big fan of OCA, I think it’s one of those reasonably rare opportunities to accumulate a sizeable holding (relatively) In a great company while under valued imho, but this time I’ve broken every rule of diversification. Except maybe the Couta Rule which is there are no rules and go hard or go home! 😳🤩

[percy]

Most will know I’m a big fan of OCA, I think it’s one of those reasonably rare opportunities to accumulate a sizeable holding (relatively) In a great company while under valued imho, but this time I’ve broken every rule of diversification. Except maybe the Couta Rule which is there are no rules and go hard or go home! ����

Investing you have two choices.
1] Don't put all your eggs in one basket.Spread your investments around.
2] Put all you eggs in one basket, and watch it carefully.

[Baa_Baa]

Investing you have two choices.
1] Don't put all your eggs in one basket.Spread your investments around.
2] Put all you eggs in one basket, and watch it carefully.

Wise words as always, could I suggest:

2a] Put a lot of eggs but not quite all of them in one basket and watch them like a hawk
2b] put the rest into other baskets that hopefully cover your rear in case you’ve screwed up with 2a

lol 😂 whatever eh, when you’re in deep your focus is like a laser

[Cyclical]

Investing you have two choices.
1] Don't put all your eggs in one basket.Spread your investments around.
2] Put all you eggs in one basket, and watch it carefully.

Not sure I'm following any particular rule book, but for me atm it's about 60% OCA, 25% HLG, both of which I think provide a great foundation for my portfolio. The remaining 15% I'm a bit more loose with, higher risk/return perhaps while checking the diversification box just a little. I'm trying to expand on that 15% of other stuff, but at the same time it's hard not to keep topping up on the other two as dips present themselves.

[Waltzing]

We have been discussing MMT for years only in the context of future automation out about a century not in the circumstances of global force majeure but here it is.

Imagine what it could do to the housing market. No need to plan for that global stormy day economic shut down, earth quake or war!

https://www.interest.co.nz/news/106666/top-leader-geoff-simmons-why-rbnz-should-pay-us-250week-six-months-so-those-debt-can

JUST WRITE IT OFF!!

Well we thought it would be called the economic income stabilization bond and the economic models to manage it for inflation but NO!

We also thought yes just write a portion off but NO right the whole thing off , hyperinflation!!!

Damn the torpedo's and cut the rating agencies off at the knees!!!

Write the legislation and safe civilisation!

It does constitute an automatic default on bonds however.

However Mr O does in fact believe it could be done and confirms the many discussions we have had on the matter over the years.

"However Orr back in May expressed some openness towards the RBNZ buying bonds directly from Treasury for monetary policy purposes, saying it could be “achievable” (https://www.interest.co.nz/bonds/105145/adrian-orr-more-qe-would-be-simple-way-reserve-bank-boost-economy-going-further-and) if done transparently, for the right purpose and with the right structures in place."

If so OCA could be the WINNER(n)! Sorry for the pun.......

[Beagle]

https://www.nzx.com/announcements/358547

Nice touch postponing the meeting until 24 September in the hope that shareholders can attend in person.

[flyinglizard]

If I attend the shareholders meeting, there are some questions for the management team,

- Why Resident/staff ratio so low, any particular reason?
- Why the Gross Margin is decreasing since 2018, the competitors' figure is stable. (SUM is between 60%-70%, ARV is between 30%-40%, RYM is around 30%). What outstanding expense items cause the low gross margin?
- Why occupancy rate is lower than industry average, although it improves? any particular reason?
- Any future plan for land acquisition? If yes, how do you finance?

[Waltzing]

The person they call MAV has answered some questions on the development model for land.

[Lease]

If I attend the shareholders meeting, there are some questions for the management team,

- Why Resident/staff ratio so low, any particular reason?
- Why the Gross Margin is decreasing since 2018, the competitors' figure is stable. (SUM is between 60%-70%, ARV is between 30%-40%, RYM is around 30%). What outstanding expense items cause the low gross margin?
- Why occupancy rate is lower than industry average, although it improves? any particular reason?
- Any future plan for land acquisition? If yes, how do you finance?

I think most of your questions have been answered at thread 6374. Go to have a read.

[Baa_Baa]

I don’t mean to be disrespectful of other investors, though when I see questions that any long term hold should know the answers, instinctively, I quietly reconcile that to more opportunity to accumulate while some feel reason for uncertainty and others quit their shares.

Sorry if that’s a bit mercenary. Investors like me don’t have a big dollop that they can invest in one go and hope for the best, moreover it’s about steady accumulation over a longer timeframe on price weakness. I’d like to have about 100k of these to be fully satisfied.

I’m well on the way but still a lot to go, so enjoy those days when I have a few more readies to invest and someone kindly divests into my investment strategy. Honestly, I’m truly ****ed if OCA turns out to be a dud long term, but it wouldn’t be the first time I’ve gone bust or near to it.

Hopefully this time works out, it seems pretty solid and a good long term opportunity to me.

For clarity this isn’t my only ticket to financial freedom, but it’s an important one.

Gltah, BAA

[flyinglizard]

Hi lease,


I will be very disappointed, If that is the answer. The timeframe for approval of demolition, design and build new one is longer than purchase new site, design and build method. Let's think about the cost and benefit. Time and money.

Write down the assets and finance to build new assets??? The main contractor needs to remove the old underground pipes, cables and services. Even costy when you perform construction work besides other apartment where some occupants live in, more health and safety requirement, water down the dust daily, cannot work during certain hours, and noise control, etc. If we suffer more lockdowns in the future, the construction work may be delayed. The main contractor may claim extra liquidated damage from OCA, NZS3910 does not cover the current pandemic situation. Extra legal expense.

Other competitors apparently purchase new land, then design and build, they may complete the whole new development within 2-3 years. OCA may redevelop the site within 3-5 years under thread 6374 business model.

If the demolition, design and build business model is really the strategy from their management team, I would dump OCA shares and walk away to its competitors.

[dabsman]

I don’t mean to be disrespectful of other investors, though when I see questions that any long term hold should know the answers, instinctively, I quietly reconcile that to more opportunity to accumulate while some feel reason for uncertainty and others quit their shares.

Sorry if that’s a bit mercenary. Investors like me don’t have a big dollop that they can invest in one go and hope for the best, moreover it’s about steady accumulation over a longer timeframe on price weakness. I’d like to have about 100k of these to be fully satisfied.

I’m well on the way but still a lot to go, so enjoy those days when I have a few more readies to invest and someone kindly divests into my investment strategy. Honestly, I’m truly ****ed if OCA turns out to be a dud long term, but it wouldn’t be the first time I’ve gone bust or near to it.

Hopefully this time works out, it seems pretty solid and a good long term opportunity to me.

For clarity this isn’t my only ticket to financial freedom, but it’s an important one.

Gltah, BAA

I spend a lot of time looking at stocks, negotiating interest rates on mortgages, balancing margin account interest with dividend income, making sure I get my nice tax return from the imputation credits etc etc. I have been accumulating OCA and it is my second biggest holding now and it is a high conviction share for sure. All that work and then I buy a bit of CBD with no research and no thought at all and have doubled my money in less than a quarter. Who the hell knows how this all works!!!

[Beagle]

Some big gains in some of the other retirement stocks and REIT's today but not for OCA. I think OCA's business plan is still not widely understood or appreciated which is great for some people who have commented above as it gives them more time to marshal their financial resources. Rome wasn't built in a day.

I'm recommend newbies read the thread from the very beginning as there's a veritable mine of information that's already been shared.

[Lease]

Hi lease,


I will be very disappointed, If that is the answer. The timeframe for approval of demolition, design and build new one is longer than purchase new site, design and build method. Let's think about the cost and benefit. Time and money.

Write down the assets and finance to build new assets??? The main contractor needs to remove the old underground pipes, cables and services. Even costy when you perform construction work besides other apartment where some occupants live in, more health and safety requirement, water down the dust daily, cannot work during certain hours, and noise control, etc. If we suffer more lockdowns in the future, the construction work may be delayed. The main contractor may claim extra liquidated damage from OCA, NZS3910 does not cover the current pandemic situation. Extra legal expense.

Other competitors apparently purchase new land, then design and build, they may complete the whole new development within 2-3 years. OCA may redevelop the site within 3-5 years under thread 6374 business model.

If the demolition, design and build business model is really the strategy from their management team, I would dump OCA shares and walk away to its competitors.

I think your arguments at some degree are valid, ie, disturb existing residents while constructing new high density apartments. However, OCA don’t need to buy new land, which will give them huge cost advantage.

I haven’t bought OCA yet but get more interested in it after I read that thread. I will check their past a few years reports and IPO documents. If everything has been going as per plan, then I think OCA should be a good opportunity given the fact it has lowest valuation in the sector.

[Waltzing]

DISC: we are not registered FA. BaBa has clearly stated this is his big investment and i can assure him that a diversified portfolio is not just a saying its imperative when the clouds turn to hurricanes. Many time we have been caught holding too much in one stock.

A diversified portfolio created in march in Health, Transports, energy and technology would have already turned you very good profits.

The only problem was getting the stocks as everyone rushed to buy when in fact without the FED the rally would never had been created nor lasted this long.

You can be forgiven for missing out. OCA is both an investment in health and property.

But the sectors stated above will be there for you to invest in next time the market goes bust.

When it does go bust sometime in the next 10 to 15 years im sure an investment in the retirement sector will not be one that loses you all your investment nest egg or even 75% of it.

You can also be assured that when and if the likes of MR B exist the stock you should also do the same.

[winner69]

Some big gains in some of the other retirement stocks and REIT's today but not for OCA. I think OCA's business plan is still not widely understood or appreciated which is great for some people who have commented above as it gives them more time to marshal their financial resources. Rome wasn't built in a day.

I'm recommend newbies read the thread from the very beginning as there's a veritable mine of information that's already been shared.

Isn’t that the company’s fault? And even on this thread there has never been a simple straight forward explanation of why the Oceania business plan is going to make us all rich one day and much richer than investing in the likes of Summerset or Ryman

I’d challenge anybody on here to come up with an “elevator speech” that answers that.

[bull....]

Isn’t that the company’s fault? And even on this thread there has never been a simple straight forward explanation of why the Oceania business plan is going to make us all rich one day and much richer than investing in the likes of Summerset or Ryman

I’d challenge anybody on here to come up with an “elevator speech” that answers that.

its a bull market , even dogs have some sort of day

[Maverick]

IsnÂ’t that the companyÂ’s fault? And even on this thread there has never been a simple straight forward explanation of why the Oceania business plan is going to make us all rich one day and much richer than investing in the likes of Summerset or Ryman

I’d challenge anybody on here to come up with an “elevator speech” that answers that.
I think we could all come up a pretty good elevator speech on OCA . Even the infamous Bull came up with "doing shi*ters up and selling them".
What the real issue is, is most don't believe in the story anymore. The fact that they keep losing money 3 years in a row is disconcerting.
All of this has been covered on this thread so wether one thinks they will make their millions on this company boils down to what the investors source of belief is based on.

Very few have the time or motivation to DYOR so most will only buy in to the story either from brokers analysts or the actual bottom line. Until either of these 2 turn upwards the share price will remain in no-mans land. Therefore by this logic the company and its a model is currently a lame dog.

When the SP starts climbing and the money starts rolling in we will all suddenly get very good at being able to explain OCAs story.

[Beagle]

Agree with Mav, its all been covered already. You either believe in their long term business model or you don't. I believe they would have made $55-60m underlying profit in FY20 if it wasn't for the virus. I am confident momentum will build over the years ahead. Their super low valuation and yield is reason enough to hold, (stock is priced on a no growth PE as if its never going to grow which I think is simply ridiculous).

[winner69]

I don’t mean to be disrespectful of other investors, though when I see questions that any long term hold should know the answers, instinctively, I quietly reconcile that to more opportunity to accumulate while some feel reason for uncertainty and others quit their shares.

Sorry if that’s a bit mercenary. Investors like me don’t have a big dollop that they can invest in one go and hope for the best, moreover it’s about steady accumulation over a longer timeframe on price weakness. I’d like to have about 100k of these to be fully satisfied.

I’m well on the way but still a lot to go, so enjoy those days when I have a few more readies to invest and someone kindly divests into my investment strategy. Honestly, I’m truly ****ed if OCA turns out to be a dud long term, but it wouldn’t be the first time I’ve gone bust or near to it.

Hopefully this time works out, it seems pretty solid and a good long term opportunity to me.

For clarity this isn’t my only ticket to financial freedom, but it’s an important one.

Gltah, BAA

You are a pretty smart guy BaaBaa and no doubt done some thinking about the downsides of the OCA model

Of the assumptions you've made to ensure future wealth which one if it didn't eventuate would make you truly ****ed

[Baa_Baa]

You are a pretty smart guy BaaBaa and no doubt done some thinking about the downsides of the OCA model

Of the assumptions you've made to ensure future wealth which one if it didn't eventuate would make you truly ****ed

Thanks winner, as you know I do the charts and that helps me to sell and not get into too much trouble, as well as pick off opportunistic buys. Much and all as I really like the long term prospects for OCA, sustained dividends (on DRP to accumulate) and potential for multiples of capital upside, I'm not in love with it or any of my holdings.

If I had to pick one assumption that would truly screw things up for me on OCA, and SUM which I have a few, would be an adverse government policy change to the sector funding model. Otherwise I'm confident that OCA has sustainable business model with a promising future.

[Waltzing]

the chart basically says flat to slightly upward trend for the next 2 years.

[Cyclical]

If nothing else, we might see some rising tide impact on this one soon, if Summerset is any indication at least.

[Beagle]

the chart basically says flat to slightly upward trend for the next 2 years.

The best approach with this is to hold "doggedly" :) 4.7% in a zero interest rate environment (normalized for Covid effect), is reward enough let alone the steady capital gains I am expecting in the years ahead.

[bull....]

the markets has spoken sum and arv offers far better prospects if this week of money flowing into those 2 is anything to go by

[Waltzing]

"doggedly" yes. The last time we held this stock we were late to the party at 1,08 selling at 1.30. I expect this time to be very late to the party due to other circumstances which globally are always beyond the control of an investor. However if Mr M has correctly calculated the land redevelopment model and QE becomes the standard funding model for markets in the decades to come then being late to the party may not be a bad ploy. Mr Ba Ba may have many opportunities to take more slices of cake.

By then i may only be whatching from afar as per last year before being domiciled in the shaky isles. Gosh it was luck to return here in september last year. As my travel agent said "You got lucky".

[dreamcatcher]

NZ & AUS follow the S&P500 which I believe will increase another 20% once covid vaccine available. We all know that a rising tide lifts all boats so OCA could benefit from that.

I am well positioned here but question a flat holding for years ..........sold out of SUM today with a 42% gain

[Waltzing]

20% increase, ARG has already gone 12% in a few months. Not interested in OCA unless it can go from 1 to 6 and more over a 10 year period. If you want the whole 9 yards buy some and put it in a family trust and look at it in 10 - 15 years time. Dont throw the trusts away because a bunch of lawyers scare you and an accountant tells you cant do the accounts. Go to a book keeping class at your local poly tech (if you havnt already got your Dip or Degree in Acccounting) and see how easy it really is to keep a set of family trust books. Your ACA can help you with any entries you dont know and the professional will add a small fee to your filing bill. Your trust deed should be a comprehensive boiler plate document in plain english.

[Curly]

Should see a small lift in price as bonus bond redemption money finds a place to invest their money. Losing value by having it sit in bank. OCA will offer good dividend return and good prospects of capital gain. Before covid my guess was approx .50c capital gain p.a. Now I think approx .30c p.a. Is not out of the way provided Wall St doesn’t crash and covid doesn’t go pop. Hopefully vaccine is not too far away. Time will tell.

[Beagle]

What Covid effect ? https://www.scoop.co.nz/stories/BU2008/S00503/what-covid-aucklands-sales-volumes-surpass-2019s-rest-of-nz-quickly-catching-up-says-reinz.htm?utm_source=ST&utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=ShareTrader+AM+Update+for+Friday+28+A ugust+2020

[winner69]

What Covid effect ? https://www.scoop.co.nz/stories/BU2008/S00503/what-covid-aucklands-sales-volumes-surpass-2019s-rest-of-nz-quickly-catching-up-says-reinz.htm?utm_source=ST&utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=ShareTrader+AM+Update+for+Friday+28+A ugust+2020

That Bindi from REINZ is so sweet

[Beagle]

That Bindi from REINZ is so sweet

Cool name eh and she is but I reckon another Bindi easily trumps her sweetness. Sorry for the off topic post folks but I reckon we all need a bit of sweetness in our lives at the moment, so enjoy and I reckon Steve would have been very proud https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=pPi7p4PLbC8

[nevchev]

Director selling?Sally Evans.

[winner69]

Director selling?Sally Evans.

Announcement says On market acquisition of shares

[Baa_Baa]

Announcement says On market acquisition of shares

Confusing, before shares is more than after shares

[+++++]

The before/after acquisition or disposal figures and the type of trans are contrary, so which is it.

[winner69]

Confusing, before shares is more than after shares

Bit slack eh

But then many things are a bit slack at Oceania

[nevchev]

Bit slack eh

But then many things are a bit slack at Oceania
If i held nzx i would be demanding a change at the top.Any other company run like this would go broke

[nevchev]

If i held nzx i would be demanding a change at the top.Any other company run like this would go broke
Is it down again?

[Antipodean]

There is an ANN dated 20/08/2020 showing Sally Evans going up to 40,714 shares.
Inferring the ANN dated 31/08/2020 was for an increase of 24,000 shares via an on market purchase.

The following section:


For that relevant interest -Number held in class before acquisition or disposal: 64,714Number held in class after acquisition or disposal: 40,714
Should read

For that relevant interest - Number held in class before acquisition or disposal: 40,714 Number held in class after acquisition or disposal: 64,714

[nevchev]

There is an ANN dated 20/08/2020 showing Sally Evans going up to 40,714 shares.
Inferring the ANN dated 31/08/2020 was for an increase of 24,000 shares via an on market purchase.

The following section:


Should read
http://nzx-prod-s7fsd7f98s.s3-website-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/attachments/OCA/358943/329746.pdf

[Antipodean]

http://nzx-prod-s7fsd7f98s.s3-website-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/attachments/OCA/358943/329746.pdf
Looks like the mistake has been realised and amended.

So - in the end - director buying on market. Good sign.

[Blue Skies]

If i held nzx i would be demanding a change at the top.Any other company run like this would go broke


What a bloody shambles, how much damage is this privately run NZX doing to investor confidence.

[Joh13]

Good sign directors are buying, they must be confident the company will grow in the future.

[stoploss]

What a bloody shambles, how much damage is this privately run NZX doing to investor confidence.
Privately run ? It's a Publicly Listed Company .....

[Blue Skies]

Privately run ? It's a Publicly Listed Company .....


Sorry I meant Private as opposed to a Govt organisation & maybe its too important to the overall confidence in the NZ economy not to have some govt ownership

[tommy_d]

Sorry I meant Private as opposed to a Govt organisation & maybe its too important to the overall confidence in the NZ economy not to have some govt ownership
such a cool contrast.
investors in privately held companies pushing for state ownership and regulation - seems, um, unusual?

[Blue Skies]

such a cool contrast.
investors in privately held companies pushing for state ownership and regulation - seems, um, unusual?


Not at all, or at least not the way I see it.
Both Private & Public have important roles to play.
Can you imagine NZ's Justice Dept, or Police Dept, or Internal Affairs granting casino & liquor licences passports etc, or national organisations tasked with protecting workers health & safety or the environment etc, being run by Private companies whose first responsibility is to return max profit to shareholders. Look how badly that ended when privately owned SERCO started running prisons & look at the mess FBU with all their resources are making of their business.
However, this getting way off topic so best leave it there or start a new thread.

Good to see OCA starting to gain some traction & evidence of surging confidence in the Real Estate market v reassuring for the companies outlook.

[Waltzing]

mortgage rates may well move down next year for some time to come and if so both retirement and commercial property will do well. A winter of discontent is nearly over.

[Greekwatchdog]

Not long to go before Annual Meeting. Hope to see some good news so this joins the run up with the rest of the sector

[Baa_Baa]

Not long to go before Annual Meeting. Hope to see some good news so this joins the run up with the rest of the sector

Need a long term view with this one, it recovered very quickly from the COVID lows but stalled. Sales signups and increasing property values are the coiled spring under the SP. on one hand it’s obvious, property prices are going berserk and OCA very conservative estimation I feel it’s way off the mark. So that leaves sales, and they have some terrific properties on the markets, so quietly hopeful there. I see a 40% rerate Upside from here as more probable than possible.

[Greekwatchdog]

Its in the bottom draw Baa Baa, just watching the rest of the sector continue up trend can be frustrating with this one. 21 sleeps to go...Might be time to buy some more me thinks..

[tommy_d]

Its in the bottom draw Baa Baa, just watching the rest of the sector continue up trend can be frustrating with this one. 21 sleeps to go...Might be time to buy some more me thinks..
i've got a few for sale, but the market is not quite hitting the price i want. Portfolio too heavily weighted on OCA, mostly bought in the 60-70 cent range.

I expect that one day soon i'll get an email that i've sold 25% of my OCA holdings.

Then i'll have to figure out what to buy. I've got a few ideas.

[Beagle]

Need a long term view with this one, it recovered very quickly from the COVID lows but stalled. Sales signups and increasing property values are the coiled spring under the SP. on one hand it’s obvious, property prices are going berserk and OCA very conservative estimation I feel it’s way off the mark. So that leaves sales, and they have some terrific properties on the markets, so quietly hopeful there. I see a 40% rerate Upside from here as more probable than possible.

Post of the day in my opinion. Very well said, I couldn't agree more.

[Cyclical]

Need a long term view with this one, it recovered very quickly from the COVID lows but stalled. Sales signups and increasing property values are the coiled spring under the SP. on one hand it’s obvious, property prices are going berserk and OCA very conservative estimation I feel it’s way off the mark. So that leaves sales, and they have some terrific properties on the markets, so quietly hopeful there. I see a 40% rerate Upside from here as more probable than possible.
Sounds good to me. One thing though, if it’s 40% on the x-axis, what units and how many along the y?

[nevchev]

Article in nbr and interview with oca boss but i dont have access.Anybody?

[winner69]

Article in nbr and interview with oca boss but i dont have access.Anybody?


Just another moan about why the government should give them (or their clients) heaps more in fees

[nevchev]

Just another moan about why the government should give them (or their clients) heaps more in fees

Thanks winner.Seems everybody has their hands out.cheers

[Waltzing]

a 2022 - 2023 and onward story.

[Beagle]

Just wait until you see the half year result to 30 November to be announced in late January 2021 and you might realise you should have bought in earlier but I do agree that momentum will build over time.

My rating is ACCUMULATE on any untoward weakness.

[850man]

Bit of a dip today, trust you topped up Mr Beagle

[Beagle]

Bit of a dip today, trust you topped up Mr Beagle

Markets have had a huge run all around the world. I reckon this correction has more legs, may or may not affect OCA some more. Playing possum in the headlights at present.

[Waltzing]

Mr B has spoken, under the 1 please....

[Beagle]

To be fair mate I reckon OCA is great value at this level and I have heaps already...its just that if the markets keep correcting almost everything gets sold off, even stocks that are already very good value.

[Waltzing]

Yes very good value if there plans come to pass and MR M has his model working. The redevelopment of existing land is a great plan.

[winner69]

jeez ... if share price down tomorrow it'll go below the 30MA

For dogs that's a bad sign

[winner69]

I suppose the ASM on the 24th will be another boring affair ..... a whole,lot of regurgitation of old stuff to give the believers something to salivate about.

I'll do the honourable thing and vote YES for Liz to stay on

By the way where's Warren these days -- haven't heard from him for a while. - hope he still with us

[Waltzing]

SKL has outperformed on dividend. The problem with this stock is the dividend else you have to wait for the growth.

The power of dividend is now showing itself. Not selling dividend in these interest rate recessions ever again. OCA has yet to perform on its plans. Still plenty of time for that to happen, prehaps even several years. I hope so.

W(n) does seem to like giving MR B something to comment on.

[Baa_Baa]

jeez ... if ts doen tomorrow it'll go below the 30MA

For dogs that's a bad sign

I think a lot of people, especially here, don’t really relate to the strategy of ‘long term’ or accumulation of long term assets when prices are depressed. Or maybe they’re the quiet ones. The thrill of the quick gain, the gamble, the trade is way more exciting.

But back to long term hold and accumulation, my own personal trick is to avoid spontaneous reactions by deleting the long hold’s watch list, like I don’t care and don’t see what happens to the share price today or tomorrow or next week.

So that might make one wonder how to accumulate something one doesn’t watch. Simple, I have buys in the market all the time at key technical support levels. I love it when I get the very occasional email that I own a few more long holds.

The only thing I haven’t figured out is how to avoid checking every post on my long hold threads. That’s a work in progress. 🤣

[winner69]

I think a lot of people, especially here, don’t really relate to the strategy of ‘long term’ or accumulation of long term assets when prices are depressed. Or maybe they’re the quiet ones. The thrill of the quick gain, the gamble, the trade is way more exciting.

But back to long term hold and accumulation, my own personal trick is to avoid spontaneous reactions by deleting the long hold’s watch list, like I don’t care and don’t see what happens to the share price today or tomorrow or next week.

So that might make one wonder how to accumulate something one doesn’t watch. Simple, I have buys in the market all the time at key technical support levels. I love it when I get the very occasional email that I own a few more long holds.

The only thing I haven’t figured out is how to avoid checking every post on my long hold threads. That’s a work in progress. ��


Oceania no doubt has an intrinsic value -- whatever it is most would say its (significantly) higher than current share price ....correct?

So there's a (significant) price gap

Things like market mood and momentum / stories about the fundamentals / market attention can 'close' that gap

That's not happening for Oceania - I put it down to Earl not telling a good enough story. He might be a decent chap but his story telling is pretty awful. The story he tells is boring as. No wonder not many can relate to their strategy eh baabaa

He (as the company figurehead) has to get his act together and tell the story (assuming there is one to tell) in a more dynamic way to gain attention and improve the market mood towards his company.

Failure to do this and Oceania will still be languishing as a sector laggard.

Maybe 'I have a dream ...' story could help.

Hope he's reading this .... his test is the ASM

[Waltzing]

"The thrill of the quick gain, the gamble, the trade is way more exciting."

Thrill of a market is for people with no fear of the universe.

Usually the personality risk profile will determine for your mindset what stock is a hold and which stock is tradeable.

[dreamcatcher]

Probably a bounce in OCA sentiment tomorrow with Nasdaq - S&P500 - DOW all showing green shoots currently............ as others

[Baa_Baa]

Oceania no doubt has an intrinsic value -- whatever it is most would say its (significantly) higher than current share price ....correct?

So there's a (significant) price gap

Things like market mood and momentum / stories about the fundamentals / market attention can 'close' that gap

That's not happening for Oceania - I put it down to Earl not telling a good enough story. He might be a decent chap but his story telling is pretty awful. The story he tells is boring as. No wonder not many can relate to their strategy eh baabaa

He (as the company figurehead) has to get his act together and tell the story (assuming there is one to tell) in a more dynamic way to gain attention and improve the market mood towards his company.

Failure to do this and Oceania will still be languishing as a sector laggard.

Maybe 'I have a dream ...' story could help.

Hope he's reading this .... his test is the ASM

You make a good point winner, maybe the company strategy is confusing for some, but I don’t think so. It’s a 2021 maybe 2022 story. Believe the story, get as many as you can before it double and triple bags, this is a sound company offering compelling value at low prices. That’s not common in the market today. I like to think I’ve found a gem, but it does require a longer term view and it seems that many don’t share that view or aren’t interested in waiting. Hence I just accumulate when I can. Gltah

[winner69]

Probably a bounce in OCA sentiment tomorrow with Nasdaq - S&P500 - DOW all showing green shoots currently............ as others

Better be a huge green shoots for the S&P500 as OCA invariably underperforms that

[Beagle]

W(n) does seem to like giving MR B something to comment on.
I'm starting to think he enjoy's yanking my tail just to get a reaction, good example below lol.


jeez ... if share price down tomorrow it'll go below the 30MA

For dogs that's a bad sign

I usually only get nervous when there's a break below the 100 day MA. Try and keep up, there's a good chap :p

[BlackPeter]

jeez ... if share price down tomorrow it'll go below the 30MA

For dogs that's a bad sign

To be fair - I prefer to buy good stocks (like e.g. OCA, FPH or most of the gentailers) below the MA400, but hey - not a dog ;):

Still a bit to go to reach my "accumulate" ...

Discl: holding a fair chunk.

[Waltzing]

Chart TA looks flat. no break down below the 90 doesnt even look like it will get to the 90 unless there is a very big sell off globally and it will have to be a big move down.

i dont see an entry point below 97 ATM.

[BlackPeter]

Chart TA looks flat. no break down below the 90 doesnt even look like it will get to the 90 unless there is a very big sell off globally and it will have to be a big move down.

i dont see an entry point below 97 ATM.

Just wait for the recession to bite ... but hey, as I said - I have already plenty and there are as well other opportunities to chase :):

[Waltzing]

"recession?" in the housing market?

recessions tend to hit people under 30 the hardest and those 55 to 65 with no assets and no saving losing jobs.

Dem's over 70 with assets to sell will be selling to ex pats bringing back Pounds, Euros, USD and that means a 45% discount.

If there is a dip over the next 2 years then i hope happens but i suspect by the time we are ready to buy this again it will be well north of 1.30.

[bottomfeeder]

"The thrill of the quick gain, the gamble, the trade is way more exciting."

Thrill of a market is for people with no fear of the universe.

Usually the personality risk profile will determine for your mindset what stock is a hold and which stock is tradeable.




Love the market when its volatile, but have been accumulating OCA, as a long term hold as a hedge against the coming inflation and depression.Older people will still get older and look for safety and security for their declining years. If they leave it too late, tbey will end up in the hospital wing, where no one wants to be.

[BlackPeter]

"recession?" in the housing market?

recessions tend to hit people under 30 the hardest and those 55 to 65 with no assets and no saving losing jobs.

Dem's over 70 with assets to sell will be selling to ex pats bringing back Pounds, Euros, USD and that means a 45% discount.

If there is a dip over the next 2 years then i hope happens but i suspect by the time we are ready to buy this again it will be well north of 1.30.

Look - nobody (I mean that: NOBODY) can predict where share prices will go ... and this includes you and me :sleep:;

However - if you want to have fun I challenge you to do a wee analysis how often posters wrote in various threads (maybe start with OCA, PPH, SML and ATM), that the share price will never be lower again than x (x being normally a number close to the SP at writing time) and then check how often they have been right.

I would be very surprised if you find out that the percentage of correct predictions is higher than say 5 to 10 percent, but pretty sure the number will be lower. "Never again" is for a long time but even a tiny week on the share market can often be still longer :): Ah yes - and did I mention it? Nobody can predict future share prices.

I do take your statement in this spirit ;):

[Waltzing]

I did not say NEVER. i said ATM.. at the moment. This week and next im not expecting a test of the 90 MA.

"Expecting" not used in the infinitive.

As

I Dont expect.

Not expecting means it may happen but the probability is lower than i expect.

AT is not showing a high probability from the stochastic.

[BlackPeter]

I did not say NEVER. i said ATM.. at the moment. This week and next im not expecting a test of the 90 MA.

"Expecting" not used in the infinitive.

As

I Dont expect.

Not expecting means it may happen but the probability is lower than i expect.

AT is not showing a high probability from the stochastic.

You did. Thanks for clarifying this.

It appears you are thinking in shorter time frames than I do :):

[dreamcatcher]

However - if you want to have fun I challenge you to do a wee analysis how often posters wrote in various threads (maybe start with OCA, PPH, SML and ATM), that the share price will never be lower again than x (x being normally a number close to the SP at writing time) and then check how often they have been right. :

Have to agree and personally still paying the price with SML & ZEL........ BUT just MAYBE eventually the tide will turn :confused:

[Mel]

Have to agree and personally still paying the price with SML & ZEL........ BUT just MAYBE eventually the tide will turn :confused:
Haha, you're not alone - two shares that are a pain in my proverbial also!

[winner69]

House prices still rocketing up

In American lingo currently rising at 30% (annualised)

Cool eh

https://reinz.co.nz/Media/Default/Statistic%20Documents/2020/August/REINZ%20Residential%20Press%20Release%20-%20August%202020.pdf

[Beagle]

Jetting up at amazing speed but the afterburner will soon be lit as well ! https://www.harbourasset.co.nz/research-and-commentary/negative-cash-rates-the-afterburner-for-asset-prices/

[Baa_Baa]

House prices still rocketing up

In American lingo currently rising at 30% (annualised)

Cool eh

https://reinz.co.nz/Media/Default/Statistic%20Documents/2020/August/REINZ%20Residential%20Press%20Release%20-%20August%202020.pdf

Would you think all the retirement companies might need to revisit their property valuation downgrades post covid, some of which fecked their balance sheets and FY20 results?

I’d expect revised earnings and asset valuation outlooks in the not too distant future because they got those valuations wrong, big time wrong as it turns out.

This latent underlying valuation shift upwards is the coiled spring under all the retirement sector, not just OCA.

I expect, but to be honest also hope for, a significant rerate sector wide. When something as fundamental as assets values are misquoted, and it’s obvious now that they have been, then rectifying that changes everything.

I still think retirement Sector per se is one of the best hedge positions available now, but also the most under valued and under priced sectors on the market.

When it moves which I am sure it will, the move will be quite profound, and that’s upwards imo.

All of the sector will benefit from rectifying Property valuations to reflect reality albeit unexpected, OCA stands to benefit, it is so suppressed at present.

IMHO, normally this sector ambles along but recently their property valuation expectations have been proven wrong, big time wrong.

They need to reassess. They need to be more nimble and move more quickly with the market dynamic, and keep investors fully informed as things change, including constant and frequent assets valuations.

It might be a retirement company on face value but the business is really a property development company.

[Maverick]

House prices still rocketing up

In American lingo currently rising at 30% (annualised)

Cool eh

https://reinz.co.nz/Media/Default/Statistic%20Documents/2020/August/REINZ%20Residential%20Press%20Release%20-%20August%202020.pdf
Those stats are phenomenal Winner. HY1 (winter) sales are normallny low for OCA but those NZ sales figures are going to put a rocket under their results this year. The next HY result being reported next January can't be anything but outstanding with so many positives lining up for this period.

Makes me wonder if this is why the SUM share price is so high being the company with the most empty stock to benefit from this buying frenzy.

[winner69]

Those stats are phenomenal Winner. HY1 (winter) sales are normallny low for OCA but those NZ sales figures are going to put a rocket under their results this year. The next HY result being reported next January can't be anything but outstanding with so many positives lining up for this period.

Makes me wonder if this is why the SUM share price is so high being the company with the most empty stock to benefit from this buying frenzy.

Yep, looks like sector will have ‘outstanding’ results in next reporting periods .. esp as realised gains calculated from written down values

But insofar as share prices go OCA will again probably not do as well as the others.

Earl got to do a much better job telling the ‘story’ that is Oceania ...get a more excited like.

I have the feeling that guru analysts st / fund managers struggle to understand it ...that makes you wonder if there is a ‘story’ with substance.

[macduffy]

I wonder if these "rocketing" house prices are causing owners to put off selling and moving to a retirement village - except for those who need to move for health reasons - so that owners continue to capture the higher prices? The scarcity of listings would suggest that this might be one of the factors at play.

[BlackPeter]

I wonder if these "rocketing" house prices are causing owners to put off selling and moving to a retirement village - except for those who need to move for health reasons - so that owners continue to capture the higher prices? The scarcity of listings would suggest that this might be one of the factors at play.

NZ used to have a quite significant annual turnover of residents - many going oversees (and selling their houses) and many coming back (and buying houses).

These days there are ways more than normal coming back, but nobody wants to leave. Easy explanation for the limited housing supply?

[Beagle]

https://www.landlords.co.nz/article/976517476/covid-be-damned-the-market-is-booming?utm_source=ST&utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=ShareTrader+AM+Update+for+Saturday+12 +September+2020

If I remember correctly when OCA's properties were valued for the 31 May 2020 balance date by the valuers as at 30 April 2020 (yeah, go figure, right in the middle of lockdown) they discounted unsold stock by 27% instead of the usual 25%. IIRC that was worth 10 cps in earnings to OCA just by selling unsold stock.

I think the half year result to 30 November 2020 is going to be a real cracker. Should see see a dividend lift too.

As long as we can stay out of level 4 lockdown the runway ahead for OCA looks very promising.

[Bjauck]

…

I have the feeling that guru analysts st / fund managers struggle to understand it ...that makes you wonder if there is a ‘story’ with substance. MET has been snared for what currently seems to be a song by a salesman with a foot in the door.

As hopefully the care side of the business now looks less risky, Will OCA be the Cinderella of the sector? Although I would hesitate to call the others ugly sisters.

[Beagle]

MET has been snared for what currently seems to be a song by a salesman with a foot in the door.

As hopefully the care side of the business now looks less risky, Will OCA be the Cinderella of the sector? Although I would hesitate to call the others ugly sisters.

Real estate prices are confounding all the so called experts so the valuation in the independent appraisal report cannot be relied upon in my opinion...but if 75% of people vote for the takeover then all they deserve is $6. I just hope OCA directors are far more committed to the company that the MET sellouts so if ever the European wolf comes knocking on the OCA door they'll tell them to go away in no uncertain terms.

[Waltzing]

Houses are in focus for many people as the local floor, curtain and tile shop says they are over run with people investing in there homes. It could simple be a boom for investing in the house home and garden. All those people returning after a decades a broad bring there euros and pounds back to buy a bargain..The only shock a stuff wrote is cultural shock. Remember you can and actually live in europe its european.

Ha det Bra Hejda

[BlackPeter]

Houses are in focus for many people as the local floor, curtain and tile shop says they are over run with people investing in there homes. It could simple be a boom for investing in the house home and garden. All those people returning after a decades a broad bring there euros and pounds back to buy a bargain..The only shock a stuff wrote is cultural shock. Remember you can and actually live in europe its european.

Ha det Bra Hejda

Are you o.k.?

To be honest - most of your recent posts might need an interpreter. While most of the words do look English, the sentences they form often don't seem to make sense.

[Bjauck]

…

Ha det Bra Hejda Maybe for many of the Kiwi returnees to NZ, it was not a final Adjö to the countries they left. When the coronavirus emergency subsides maybe many of them may return to resume their OE - Provided there are employment opportunities?

[winner69]

I suppose the ASM on the 24th will be another boring affair ..... a whole,lot of regurgitation of old stuff to give the believers something to salivate about.

I'll do the honourable thing and vote YES for Liz to stay on

By the way where's Warren these days -- haven't heard from him for a while. - hope he still with us

Be even more boring now seeing it’s a online affair

Grumpy shareholders won’t be heard .....but then again Oceania shareholders are never grumpy are they.

[Beagle]

No lukewarm sausage rolls after the meeting for the dog and no chance to meet the directors and senior management :( but as usual I have come up with a cunning plan.
When the meeting starts go up the road to the best bakery in town and get some really good and really hot gourmet sausage rolls and others treats and by the time I get back, I will have missed most of the boring stuff and I can start hoeing into my treats as I will be hearing with delight about their outlook and how they've been selling heaps more than last year.

Sounds like a plan almost as good as being there. The above a good example of the old adage "When life gives you lemons, make lemonade"

[Waltzing]

with spring wild weather in the central north island "I can start hoeing into my treats " it is indeed a good idea. ill be doing the same and listening with great interest.

[Blue Skies]

No lukewarm sausage rolls after the meeting for the dog and no chance to meet the directors and senior management :( but as usual I have come up with a cunning plan.
When the meeting starts go up the road to the best bakery in town and get some really good and really hot gourmet sausage rolls and others treats and by the time I get back, I will have missed most of the boring stuff and I can start hoeing into my treats as I will be hearing with delight about their outlook and how they've been selling heaps more than last year.

Sounds like a plan almost as good as being there. The above a good example of the old adage "When life gives you lemons, make lemonade"


An excellent plan, might have to have a practice run tomorrow, with the sausage rolls.

[Cyclical]

Plenty of resistance at $1.05. I guess it will sit around this level until we have a really exciting announcement next week (pass me a Tui), or failing that, the next big covid related curve ball.

[Panda-NZ-]

Rising tax free house prices = good for OCA but the costs seem to be a bit out of control currently.