OCA - Oceania Group - retirement villages

[Beagle]

Definitely a golden circle location in a top suburb. Still cannot believe they got planning permission. I used to occasionally jog along the waterfront as a student and had my snack and drink at Cliff Road/Glover Park. A nice little shopping area at St Heliers, it used have that coastal village vibe.

A Jewel of a spot and probably the units will be out of my price range when I become eligible to live there. I will press my nose against the fence and have whine from outside sometime too!

Yes...I know quite a lot, (more than I want to know but unfortunately I have too as a Trustee), about how extraordinarily difficult that can be. Residential development consenting on volcanic cones is best described as an exceptionally challenging process. Makes Boulcott street for another company look like short walk in in the park on a warm spring day. Highlights a key difference between the capabilities of the respective experts employed by the two companies and is something I haven't really thought a lot about until quite recently.

Mrs B and I did have a wee bit of a chat speculating about the pricing of the best apartments and what price they might command. Hard to put a figure on it...but...just for fun lets take a wild guess. OCA are reported to be spending $130m..lets allow for a contingency, (I know they would have already allowed for contingency's in the $130m figure) and suggest its $140m so if their development margin is 30% that suggests gross sale proceeds of ~$200m.

76 apartments and 31 care suites. Lets assume a care suite is on average about half the size and cost of an apartment so that suggests an average of approx $2.2m per apartment = $167m and $1.1m per care suite = $34m. Those numbers on an average basis for that area appear quite commercially feasible to me and suggests the premium north facing apartments with the most commanding views will be in the mid-late $3m range.

What's very cool is this whole development from beginning to end is effectively being financed at just 2.30% fixed for 7 years.

[Bjauck]

It certainly points to a a crack team behind the consenting process.

I thought a similar pricing for the apartments, if not a bit more if they are tempted to add a premium on to their normal margins. It would be a jump up from my South Auckland spot, but my locale is not its targeted market - although my holding in Oceania is on its way currently to boosting what I can afford when the time gets closer :)

[Waltzing]

with SUM blasting up i think SUM of us missed the boat on that one as to think we were holders a few years back and moved to this slower moving train... if MR B is right again it may be time to take some more. But SUM has really show where prices might go if this stock starts to fire up.

$4 million for the best views , a friend bought a property 20 years ago down the coast from moon bay and is now sitting well positioned and a view of the entire harbour out and across from rangi..

i think he paid , well but not much.

[Beagle]

If SUM do $110m underlying this year that's eps of 48 cents so at $9.74 that's a forward PE of 20.2 which is not unreasonable for the current market dynamics.

Once OCA build the trust and respect of the investment community that they're also a growth company and their different business model works ostensibly in a very similar manner I think we will see OCA rerated to a similar ratio. If they can do 10 cps in the 10 months of FY21, (annualized 12cps) that suggests 12 x 20 = $2.40 is plausible sometime in 2021 or 2022.

[Waltzing]

"sorry i should be zooming sweden about now i could not resist"

When MR B moves into his luxury apartment and settle down to write a "Beagles Best Dividend investor Guide" or some such and from where ever i am residing i will order my copy.

The PE is high but im not going to argue as valuing commercial property is not my area but i was surprised we did not get more for our commercial partnership property last year. The other partners did not seem to take my view that rental commercial property for professional practises should attract a premium.

These suites are a mix of private and commercial as they are attached to a health care service and as such should attract a premium price due to their locations.

By now some may have read the article on lock downs from WHO.

[winner69]

Right - no more tax / politics talk on this tread

So back on topic

With a booming property market (even the RBNZ wants it to keep going up) and low interest rates and with Oceania's plans coming to fruition the future is bright

For believers in relativity theory OCA share price at least $2.40 next year

YOU CAN'T HAVE TOO MANY OCA

[Beagle]

I believe the exact phrase we coined is "You can't have too many" Got to get in early and let the next 22 years of compounding growth fuel our ability to buy the best apartment at St Heliers so we can move into Eagles Nest...opps sorry, Beagles Nest when we're 80 and write that book. Could be called "Being a Dividend Hound"...taking a dogged approach to investment returns...does have a nice ring to it :)

[Leftfield]

For believers in relativity theory OCA share price at least $2.40 next year

YOU CAN'T HAVE TOO MANY OCA

Crikey! Seems like you and Beagle had a tab too much Coffee this morning?

[thebusinessman]

I believe the exact phrase we coined is "You can't have too many" Got to get in early and let the next 22 years of compounding growth fuel our ability to buy the best apartment at St Heliers so we can move into Eagles Nest...opps sorry, Beagles Nest when we're 80 and write that book. Could be called "Being a Dividend Hound"...taking a dogged approach to investment returns...does have a nice ring to it :)

If you could please write just a three or four page whitepaper now you'd probably help ~30% of the contributors to this board make a significant difference to their net wealth over the next few years!

Very happy with my OCA hold, bought about a third of my holding around 70c and another two thirds around 95c - might be buying a property near the end of the year and I'll be damned disappointed if I need to cash these up to do that! Alas, I now can't really afford to accumulate any more...

[Waltzing]

always leave 20% in cash

[winner69]

tj once played a game with me ....who’ll get to 140 first, ARV or HGH

Need to play another game now ....who’ll get to 140 first - OCA or HGH

[Beagle]

tj once played a game with me ....who’ll get to 140 first, ARV or HGH

Need to play another game now ....who’ll get to 140 first - OCA or HGH

I am well positioned either way but possibly worth noting that HGH did get to $1.40 last week.

We need a proper game, which will get to $2 first ?...oh wait...that's no good either...the old Heartland already been to $2.14, ask me how I know ;)

Okay, here we go then, which one gets to $2.20 first ? My guess is OCA.

[Cyclical]

tj once played a game with me ....who’ll get to 140 first, ARV or HGH

Need to play another game now ....who’ll get to 140 first - OCA or HGH

HGH is currently sitting within a gnat's whisker, like a day's trading blip, while OCA must be due a little rest before taking it's next run north. Either way, hold both, slightly weighted towards OCA (like about 100:1 lol)

[Waltzing]

pull back to 125 possible maybe even 120 ..but not for long. double top and could push higher simple because the market is starting to party up...

weeks away from vaccine trial news starting to heat up...

market could really take off on the Regen vaccine after all it took out ebola

[wagwan]

At 1.29, OCA premium to FY20 NTA is 35%, still lowest of the five retirement stocks. RYM 227%, MET 74%, SUM 97%, ARV 41%.

Not bad, especially given quality of management and strategy, development pipeline and shift towards profitability all contributing towards possible inflection point for OCA as indicated by Maverick / Beagle and others previously. Not to mention macro support from RBNZ fuelling property market and possible redistribution of MET funds within sector, plus longer term tailwinds from demographic changes.

Also of note for me is that yield from OCA is historically a sustainable once, with net operating cashflow comfortably covering dividends (FY20 being $0.04 dividend, and $0.08 OCF / share). Good management of capital, and balancing of return vs re-investment, in my books.

Long story short, $1.29 could look very cheap in medium - long term

[Cyclical]

Certainly the golden age for real estate investors looks like it will continue - covid level one (while Europe and the USA spikes), low interest rates, no stamp duties, no CGT.

When travel restrictions ease further, will returning kiwis and safe haven seekers flood into Aotearoa demanding a little patch of land to call haven? Has the property investment environment been sweeter?

Great for those of us haves that are invested in property in one respect or another, but man haven't the COL's intentions around home ownership seriously backfired and now seemingly all brakes are off for the next 3 years. Glad I'm not trying to get on the ladder, while disappointed I can't find another big pile of cash to throw at OCA and the like...one thing's for sure, I aint selling what I've got.


always leave 20% in cash

Just like our thoughts on acceptable yield are having to be realigned for today's low interest rate environment, I think the good old 20% cash thing also needs a look at in many cases. 20% cash (assuming we are talking investment portfolio here) back in the day was fine when it was earning money in the bank, but with the market running hot, how much are you losing? I think I'd rather have some of that 20% in a relatively liquid bricks and mortar stock, like say OCA for argument's sake ;) . The market has been such that if I'd had 20% of my portfolio in cash a month ago, it would be worth less than 15% now. Of course your %$ in cash vs stocks should change according to the market, but that's the tricky bit...like obviously if there was an incoming pandemic, you'd want to be cashed up ~80%...easy peasy, right? ;) Just my 2C's of course.

[Waltzing]

"good old 20%"

for taking advantage of that best buy day...

with 80% of your cash working hard and presumable going up up and away

you should always have some liquid funds.

its not a perfect world.

In fact we did not sell all our stocks in time and had to hold. Some of them wont come back to profit to several years yet.

Your rain day fund could go to bonds if you want .
Your so called loss of money is not in fact loss when balanced for GDP and country by country advantages.

In this case your NZ dollars is holding its value.

[Joh13]

Looks like Heartland bank is offering sub 2% mortgages...

[Beagle]

Latest REINZ statistics are out and volumes and prices are VERY strong https://www.reinz.co.nz/Media/Default/Statistic%20Documents/2020/September/REINZ%20Residential%20Press%20Release%20-%20September%202020.pdf

National medium price up a remarkable 14.7% year on year and highest number of property sales for 42 months. The market is on fire and with interest rates from as low as 1.99% it would seem its only going to go one way https://reinz.co.nz/residential-property-data-gallery

The lovely Bindi, CEO of REINZ says Auckland sales were the strongest in 52 months ! https://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/reinz-figures-the-three-factors-leading-to-record-house-prices-and-volumes/RGA5SH2PTWGOG3R3MSSNPX4FF4/

[Waltzing]

prices up in the central North Island. The new road system lets me leave botany in the late evening and before i know it im in hamilton. Need to get an auto driving car. No point driving now with the 2 lane each way being extended to south of central north island towns by late 2021.

You could own a house well out of auckland and sit back and have your car drive you to town.

Cheap loans add your self driving electric car to your new house mortgage.

Should be a finance bundle.

[YoungBull]

Just want to say I'm a young (22) investor, and the group on this thread has supplied me with a wealth of information over the time that I've been watching in the shadows. An incredible broad range of insight on this thread, thanks guys. I picked up Oceania on its fundamentals a while back, exciting future.

[Bjauck]

Latest REINZ statistics are out and volumes and prices are VERY strong https://www.reinz.co.nz/Media/Default/Statistic%20Documents/2020/September/REINZ%20Residential%20Press%20Release%20-%20September%202020.pdf

National medium price up a remarkable 14.7% year on year and highest number of property sales for 42 months. The market is on fire and with interest rates from as low as 1.99% it would seem its only going to go one way https://reinz.co.nz/residential-property-data-gallery

The lovely Bindi, CEO of REINZ says Auckland sales were the strongest in 52 months ! https://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/reinz-figures-the-three-factors-leading-to-record-house-prices-and-volumes/RGA5SH2PTWGOG3R3MSSNPX4FF4/

Aye...The Labour Party is making sure the cost of Covid will fall on long-suffering income earners by increasing the tax rate, while real estate owners get the untaxed windfall gains from the Covid response . Go figure!

[Leftfield]

Just want to say I'm a young (22) investor, and the group on this thread has supplied me with a wealth of information over the time that I've been watching in the shadows. An incredible broad range of insight on this thread, thanks guys. I picked up Oceania on its fundamentals a while back, exciting future.

Welcome to the forum...... you've made a great start..... wish I had had this sort of investing info' when I was 22!! (in my day's it was an all via brokers with an abacus or nothing.)

[dobby41]

Aye...The Labour Party is making sure the cost of Covid will fall on long-suffering income earners by increasing the tax rate, while real estate owners get the untaxed windfall gains from the Covid response . Go figure!

Whereas it could be said that National is putting more cost on future generations by giving a tax cut while estate owners get the untaxed windfall gains from the Covid response.

[Waltzing]

is this moving back to tax? just saying ...

[Ggcc]

Whereas it could be said that National is putting more cost on future generations by giving a tax cut while estate owners get the untaxed windfall gains from the Covid response.
Bottom line is owning houses works well for everyone, regardless which major party they vote for. No Party wants to introduce a capital gains tax stronger than the bright line tax system on houses. It is unfair, but hey who wants to change that?? We all have it in us to minimise the taxes we have to pay.

[Beagle]

Tax...YAWN...lets get back to the lovely Bindi from REINZ and those extraordinary real estate statistics. Volume and price are important for companies in this sector and its great to see the market is really performing well in both respects.

[Baa_Baa]

Tax...YAWN...lets get back to the lovely Bindi from REINZ and those extraordinary real estate statistics. Volume and price are important for companies in this sector and its great to see the market is really performing well in both respects.

The REINZ stats are eye watering! Considering OCA's independent valuers got it SO WRONG for last balance date, there's a ton of valuation catch up coming which imo is far from priced into the SP.

[winner69]

hey Beagle - don't concentrate on annual increases (like v Sept 19)

You need to look at whats happening NOW

Like HPI for Auckland up 2.4% in last month and 6.4% over last 3 months (June to Sept)

That's nearly a 30% annualised increase

Aren't Oceania selling a few in Auckland at the moment

Cool eh

[Bjauck]

Tax...YAWN...lets get back to the lovely Bindi from REINZ and those extraordinary real estate statistics. Volume and price are important for companies in this sector and its great to see the market is really performing well in both respects. Fair enough. Although tax issues are more relevant to a discussion on the property market and Oceania than whether Bindi is "lovely".

[Beagle]

hey Beagle - don't concentrate on annual increases (like v Sept 19)

You need to look at whats happening NOW

Like HPI for Auckland up 2.4% in last month and 6.4% over last 3 months (June to Sept)

That's nearly a 30% annualised increase

Aren't Oceania selling a few in Auckland at the moment

Cool eh

Very good point mate and most of that over winter and before the 1.99% mortgage rate !
Yes big development sales in Meadowbank and the Sands.
Nelson - Brand new facility just opened and look at the sales volumes there

Nelson: +66.2% (from 65 to 108 – 43 more houses) – the highest for the month of
September in 17 years
Nelson values up 14.5% in the last year...BUT
Compared to August 2020
• Median Price up 8.6%

Heck mate, Nelson up 8.6% in just the last month that's an annual rate of 103% per annum !!
When one takes close focus on what's happening in the real estate market NOW as me ol mate Winner has very astutely mentioned, the future does indeed look extremely promising.

[winner69]

Stephens from Westpac is the most useless of the bank economists in this country

His team surprised how strong market currently is but at least he’s getting back to some sort reality when they say ‘Westpac's economists think the current housing boom will continue well into next year...’

https://www.interest.co.nz/property/107501/westpacs-economists-say-they-underestimated-impact-interest-rate-cuts-and-wonder-if

[winner69]

What did CBRE or whoever revise their property price movements down to?

[Cyclical]

Stephens from Westpac is the most useless of the bank economists in this country

His team surprised how strong market currently is but at least he’s getting back to some sort reality when they say ‘Westpac's economists think the current housing boom will continue well into next year...’

https://www.interest.co.nz/property/107501/westpacs-economists-say-they-underestimated-impact-interest-rate-cuts-and-wonder-if

The article mainly talks about the RBNZ's stimulus by way of the OCR, but I don't know that they have a lot of options here as kinda need to follow our trading partners to keep a cap on the NZD. What isn't mentioned in the article is the influence the culling of the LVR requirements has had, which I reckon has opened the flood gates in a big way, although you'd hope the banks have started to apply some caution in this respect.

"...strongest September sales volumes in 14 years..." Hmm, back to pre GFC... Will be really interesting to see what (if anything) the RBNZ do to put the brakes on. Doesn't sound like any help is coming by way of Cindy.

[Beagle]

What did CBRE or whoever revise their property price movements down to?

Going off memory mate I think when CBRE did their April 2020 valuation for OCA's May 2020 balance sheet, (yeah I know, go figure ?), they were talking minus 2% in the coming year.

[macduffy]

Expect to see fairly strict LVR's re-introduced once the election is out of the way.

[Cyclical]

Expect to see fairly strict LVR's re-introduced once the election is out of the way.

Probably, and any whiff of that will only exacerbate buyer panic in the mean time.

[winner69]

Two guys chatting loudly in cafe were going about how the second term of a Labour government always sees property prices rocket ahead ..and investors (I’d call them speculators) love it.

[Maverick]

Two guys chatting loudly in cafe were going about how the second term of a Labour government always sees property prices rocket ahead ..and investors (I’d call them speculators) love it.

Winner , ol' buddy ol' pal, do fill us all on your mates down at the bowling club. Did they sell, buy more or just do what most people do and were paralyzed by indecision ? ( AKA hold) ....chances are they are feeling ok about now?

[Beagle]

Winner , ol' buddy ol' pal, do fill us all on your mates down at the bowling club. Did they sell, buy more or just do what most people do and were paralyzed by indecision ? ( AKA hold) ....chances are they are feeling ok about now?

Don't know about them but the top gun team are feeling pretty good aren't they ;) Just the start though...lots of fun in the years to come.

[Baa_Baa]

Don't know about them but the top gun team are feeling pretty good aren't they ;) Just the start though...lots of fun in the years to come.

Reading these forums, it doesn’t seem that many have a long term view, but that’s what makes buying at historical lows so compelling. If one has a view for the future, OCA is a no brainer.

[Waltzing]

Retirement sector = long term unless housing is replaced as a base asset class by something else.?

Global crisis are buying time events for this sector surely?

Notice Mr B's large investment in this sector.

A ten year investment?

[Beagle]

Yes I am looking at this as a ten year investment or more.
Julian Cook of Summerset once told me you don't make the real money out of retirement villages until the ten year point.
To understand what he means by this is to understand this sector.

In SUM's case their average resident stay's about 9 years. (In OCA's case its going to be a lot less, but I digress).
Its one thing to develop a village and get a development margin on units sold, (which actually isn't much when you consider that a lot of common area buildings and facilities have to be built at the same time which don't really give much of a return at all)

What's he's talking about is the real money, not the 25% development margin.
For example John and Jenny buy a lovely unit at say Ellerslie for say $650K. Nine years later when they pass away their estate gets back about $450K after deductions but the unit is resold for $1,450K with nine years compound capital growth in value and the company makes $1m tax free on resale which is obviously vastly more than the 25% development margin when the $650K unit was first sold = $162K which was taxable.

The secret sauce that very few people are understanding with OCA is that the churn will be much faster...clipping the ticket for 30% every few years.

We will see tremendous gains in the next decade or two, and in OCA's case their dividend yield is the highest in the sector and dividends will grow really strongly in the future so its the perfect retirement stock for me.

Take SUM as an example to help understand what sort of returns compound tax free growth produces. They listed in November 2011 at $1.30, now just on $10 and not quite 9 years old. Check out the returns on RYM shares since they listed and you start to understand the power of compound tax free growth.

I think with this post I might have talked myself into getting even more...it wouldn't be the first time that in putting my thoughts down on paper, (so too speak) I've realized the full extent of the opportunity and bought more.

[Waltzing]

Thank you MR B and im sure all investors are interested in the OCA model to provide an opportunity to add balance to their portfolios.

Yes we have had a small order in for a few days now in holding company to add to our allotment in sector and expect to add more over the coming 2 years.

[Wsp]

Beagle,
Why will the churn be faster for OCA compared to the other retirement stocks?

[wagwan]

Beagle,
Why will the churn be faster for OCA compared to the other retirement stocks?

Larger portion of OCA suites being care-based, by nature higher churning and generally speaking older occupants

[Beagle]

Larger portion of OCA suites being care-based, by nature higher churning and generally speaking older occupants

Same goes for their apartments.

[dubya]

Larger portion of OCA suites being care-based, by nature higher churning and generally speaking older occupants

Also these were the DMF fees for OCA about 18 months ago. I don't think they've changed.

Individual accommodation: 30% over three years. (10% per year accrued and apportioned on a monthly basis)

Care Suites: 30% over three years. (First year fixed at 15% - irrespective of whether a person stays one week or eleven months. Second year 10% and third year 5%. Second and third years accrued and apportioned on a monthly basis)

[Waltzing]

Thank you @ 1.29 for holding company today.

DISC: Bought back at 1.09 privately. Traded at ranges .70 - 1.30.

now holding long term or until model fails to work.

[Cyclical]

Traded at ranges .70 - 1.30.

Crazy how quickly it's come up really...only recently we were talking OCA must surely ride the rising tide with the rest of the sector. I look back to when it was around the 70c mark, trying to talk my parents into getting into it with their expiring TD's, conservatively telling them that if you don't double your money from these levels in 5 years, then I'll eat my hat. Of course we're not quite there yet, but something tells me my hat's safe lol.

Then at about the 80c mark asking my bank manager if I could borrow against the house to buy a few more...unfortunately it was against their policy...should have changed banks! Anyways, well positioned with this making up about 70% of current portfolio at an average of 79c..in it for the long term. Can't sell cos of tax, can't buy anymore as I need to diversify!

[Maverick]

At 1.29, OCA premium to FY20 NTA is 35%, still lowest of the five retirement stocks. RYM 227%, MET 74%, SUM 97%, ARV 41%.

Not bad, especially given quality of management and strategy, development pipeline and shift towards profitability all contributing towards possible inflection point for OCA as indicated by Maverick / Beagle and others previously. Not to mention macro support from RBNZ fuelling property market and possible redistribution of MET funds within sector, plus longer term tailwinds from demographic changes.

Also of note for me is that yield from OCA is historically a sustainable once, with net operating cashflow comfortably covering dividends (FY20 being $0.04 dividend, and $0.08 OCF / share). Good management of capital, and balancing of return vs re-investment, in my books.

Long story short, $1.29 could look very cheap in medium - long term
Welcome to the forum wagwan.
Excellent first/second post. No matter what aspect one looks at this fundamentally it just comes out a superb company. The real concern to me WAS that its cost of redevelopments was always going to eat away into any achieved gains. While I have proven to myself that the future rewards are significant and worthwhile. My own calculations say we have past the point of inflection.

By this I mean the care side of the business which has been diminishing away by circa $5m (ish) compounding each year from the overall bottom line . However the next HY report will demonstrate the care side will actually increase in profit for the first time. So the net affect of the increasing village profit (which has been rising nicely but masked by the falling care profit )will now appear in conjunction with the improving care profit as a terrific combo underlying profit quite out of the blue to most. The 2 income sections are now effectively working together for the first time since listing.
This has been very difficult to calculate and I really don't believe the investment community and analysts have their head around this yet. However , if I'm right , it will be late Jan 2021 that the evidence of the turn around will be laid bare for all to see.


As Beagle has said earlier, that's when things get really interesting. I consider the recent SP rise little more than the rising tide lifting all boats.
looking forward to your future contributions to this thread wagwan.

[justakiwi]

While age is certainly relevant, it is probably not the critical factor here. Those in care units are there primarily because of their health related additional needs. Which will, in many cases, contribute to the higher churn rate.


Larger portion of OCA suites being care-based, by nature higher churning and generally speaking older occupants

[wagwan]

Welcome to the forum wagwan.
Excellent first/second post. No matter what aspect one looks at this fundamentally it just comes out a superb company. The real concern to me WAS that its cost of redevelopments was always going to eat away into any achieved gains. While I have proven to myself that the future rewards are significant and worthwhile. My own calculations say we have past the point of inflection.

By this I mean the care side of the business which has been diminishing away by circa $5m (ish) compounding each year from the overall bottom line . However the next HY report will demonstrate the care side will actually increase in profit for the first time. So the net affect of the increasing village profit (which has been rising nicely but masked by the falling care profit )will now appear in conjunction with the improving care profit as a terrific combo underlying profit quite out of the blue to most. The 2 income sections are now effectively working together for the first time since listing.
This has been very difficult to calculate and I really don't believe the investment community and analysts have their head around this yet. However , if I'm right , it will be late Jan 2021 that the evidence of the turn around will be laid bare for all to see.


As Beagle has said earlier, that's when things get really interesting. I consider the recent SP rise little more than the rising tide lifting all boats.
looking forward to your future contributions to this thread wagwan.


Thanks Mav - appreciated. Re bold - let's hope so!

Cherry on top re premium to NTA is that using the FY20 numbers almost certainly underestimates NTA, as previously outlined by others, with CBRE using (2%) - 3% range for Property Growth rate. Evidently overestimates the premium, which is likely a lot close to 10% than 30%.

[winner69]

Relativity theory says that OCA now just slightly 'undervalued'

Been a bit of battle to get there but managing quite well

Ryman have 1/2 year in November -- should be a boomer and their share price will rocket ahead (like SUM)

Ryman at $20 implies OCA at $1.80

Let's hope RYM deliver as I think

[winner69]

Change of Balance Date complicates things for a company at reporting time.

Results in a reporting period that is not 12 months but most companies that change usually produce a proforma set of accounts to reflect 12 month periods. Like Oceania will report theie 10 month statutory result but could produce a 12 month result for April 20 to March 21 and compare it to a April 19 to March 20 proforma result.

Difficult for Oceania as 12 months to March 21 will be probably be less than the 10 months they will report on - didn't make any money in April and May I'm led to believe

But doing it that way 2022 (both H1 and H2) will be a real boomer

Let's see how they handle it

[Leftfield]

Relativity theory says that OCA now just slightly 'undervalued'

Been a bit of battle to get there but managing quite well

Ryman have 1/2 year in November -- should be a boomer and their share price will rocket ahead (like SUM)

Ryman at $20 implies OCA at $1.80

Let's hope RYM deliver as I think

Good to have an update on the relativity theory - thanks Winner.

[Baa_Baa]

Change of Balance Date complicates things for a company at reporting time.

Results in a reporting period that is not 12 months but most companies that change usually produce a proforma set of accounts to reflect 12 month periods. Like Oceania will report theie 10 month statutory result but could produce a 12 month result for April 20 to March 21 and compare it to a April 19 to March 20 proforma result.

Difficult for Oceania as 12 months to March 21 will be probably be less than the 10 months they will report on - didn't make any money in April and May I'm led to believe

But doing it that way 2022 (both H1 and H2) will be a real boomer

Let's see how they handle it

It does present a problem how they pitch the short year results, but it doesn’t matter as only Beagle and Maverick understand the financials anyway 😊 As long as they’ve built heaps, sold heaps, churned the base, Confirmed the inflection, etc, it’ll be all good, very very good probably.

[winner69]

It does present a problem how they pitch the short year results, but it doesn’t matter as only Beagle and Maverick understand the financials anyway 😊 As long as they’ve built heaps, sold heaps, churned the base, Confirmed the inflection, etc, it’ll be all good, very very good probably.

And if multiple everything by 12/10 it will be extraordinary

Caution though ...both beagle and mav full year forecasts for 2020 weren’t that good ...not even in the margin of error.

[Maverick]

And if multiple everything by 12/10 it will be extraordinary

Caution though ...both beagle and mav full year forecasts for 2020 weren’t that good ...not even in the margin of error.

Bit harsh there Winner.
As I recall Beagle was pretty darn close. I was out by quite a bit but have explained on the forum the reason due my incorrect covid sales assumption just after the fy2020 report.
For any new guys here , that post is worth reading as that incorrect assumption of mine for 2020 due to covid unit sales has a material and positive effect on the next HY.
Anybody serious enough should spend an hour and look up REINZ stats to see the proof of what I meant in that post. ( while you are doing that you will also get an understanding of how significant the most recent REINZ months of sales of increased auckland volumes are going to be next HY1- you can see the significant effect rippling through the latest SUM sales as clear as day)

Are you just stirring Winner?

[winner69]

Bit harsh there Winner.
As I recall Beagle was pretty darn close. I was out by quite a bit but have explained on the forum the reason due my incorrect covid sales assumption just after the fy2020 report.
For any new guys here , that post is worth reading as that incorrect assumption of mine for 2020 due to covid unit sales has a material and positive effect on the next HY.
Anybody serious enough should look up REINZ stats to see the proof of what I meant in that post. ( while you are doing that you will also get an understanding of how significant the most recent REINZ months of sales of increased auckland volumes are going to be next HY1- you can see the effect rippling through the latest SUM sales as clear as day)

Are you just stirring Winner?

Sorry to have offended you both

I think post 6178 is your review of the result. All should have another look

Whatever happens in 2021 looks like it’s going to be again short of the $86m underlying that Earl told me they were aiming for in F20

Shareprice going well eh ..I’m glad I got some more a little while back.

[Beagle]

If I recall correctly some dog got the FY20 result almost right bang on the money @ underlying profit of $45m ;)...probably just a fluke but then again maybe the tea leaves were sniffed very carefully.
Rumor has it that same dog has forecasted FY21 underlying profit at $60m for the 10 months a little while back but recent very strong real estate prices and volumes have the dog sniffing the breeze thinking about an upgrade. Watch this space.
Winder what the relativity chart compared to SUM looks like ?

I added a few more today. What's the point of having cash in a call account earning nothing ?

[Snow Leopard]

....as only Beagle and Maverick understand the financials anyway....

There is a least one error in that statement above---



....For example John and Jenny buy a lovely unit at say Ellerslie for say $650K. Nine years later when they pass away their estate gets back about $450K after deductions but the unit is resold for $1,450K with nine years compound capital growth in value and the company makes $1m tax free on resale which is obviously vastly more than the 25% development margin when the $650K unit was first sold = $162K which was taxable....

---and there is at least two errors in the above.

[Beagle]

Its intended as a general overview of the business model.

[trader_jackson]

Forsyth saying this is a $1.65 share... more room to run they say

[Greekwatchdog]

They have upgraded OCA to Out Perform ,SUM Out Perform, RYM Neutral and ARV Downgraded to Neutral.

[Greekwatchdog]

Brief Notes - We upgrade Oceania Healthcare (OCA) to OUTPERFORM with a target price of NZ$1.65 (from NZ$1.10). We believe OCA's higheraverage charges and focus on care suites over traditional care is a key beneficiary of the current buoyant market environment forresidential homes and high demand for care. We believe OCA to be at an inflection point with its transition from traditional careoperator towards a premium operator charging through deferred management fees (DMF) and re-sale gains. We expect OCA toalmost double annuity earnings over the coming three years and deliver the highest cash recovery of new capex in the sector. ShouldOCA deliver on our expectations and the buoyant market continue, we see substantial further upside medium term.The worst is behind us, time to look aheadOCA has had, by some margin, the worst development of all the aged care operators over the last four years; annuity earnings havedeclined by almost 30% and only 50% of capex has been recovered in the form of new sales. This has been a deliberate strategy byOCA to de-commission one third of its existing care beds to replace them with (fewer) care suites and ILUs. This has, in our view, beena high risk, high reward, strategy that looks to be paying off. The care suite model substantially improves capex recovery, cashconversion of annuity earnings and DMF. The risk primarily relates to demand; will the product work? We are of the view that the "usecase" for care suites is strong, however, it is a relatively untested product in New Zealand. The early signs are positive, but OCA is, inour view, a high risk, high reward stock.

[winner69]

Brief Notes - We upgrade Oceania Healthcare (OCA) to OUTPERFORM with a target price of NZ$1.65 (from NZ$1.10). We believe OCA's higheraverage charges and focus on care suites over traditional care is a key beneficiary of the current buoyant market environment forresidential homes and high demand for care. We believe OCA to be at an inflection point with its transition from traditional careoperator towards a premium operator charging through deferred management fees (DMF) and re-sale gains. We expect OCA toalmost double annuity earnings over the coming three years and deliver the highest cash recovery of new capex in the sector. ShouldOCA deliver on our expectations and the buoyant market continue, we see substantial further upside medium term.The worst is behind us, time to look aheadOCA has had, by some margin, the worst development of all the aged care operators over the last four years; annuity earnings havedeclined by almost 30% and only 50% of capex has been recovered in the form of new sales. This has been a deliberate strategy byOCA to de-commission one third of its existing care beds to replace them with (fewer) care suites and ILUs. This has, in our view, beena high risk, high reward, strategy that looks to be paying off. The care suite model substantially improves capex recovery, cashconversion of annuity earnings and DMF. The risk primarily relates to demand; will the product work? We are of the view that the "usecase" for care suites is strong, however, it is a relatively untested product in New Zealand. The early signs are positive, but OCA is, inour view, a high risk, high reward stock.

Wished they hadn’t used ‘high risk’ so many times

[Beagle]

Brief Notes - We upgrade Oceania Healthcare (OCA) to OUTPERFORM with a target price of NZ$1.65 (from NZ$1.10). We believe OCA's higheraverage charges and focus on care suites over traditional care is a key beneficiary of the current buoyant market environment forresidential homes and high demand for care. We believe OCA to be at an inflection point with its transition from traditional care operator towards a premium operator charging through deferred management fees (DMF) and re-sale gains. We expect OCA to almost double annuity earnings over the coming three years and deliver the highest cash recovery of new capex in the sector. Should OCA deliver on our expectations and the buoyant market continue, we see substantial further upside medium term.The worst is behind us, time to look aheadOCA has had, by some margin, the worst development of all the aged care operators over the last four years; annuity earnings havedeclined by almost 30% and only 50% of capex has been recovered in the form of new sales. This has been a deliberate strategy byOCA to de-commission one third of its existing care beds to replace them with (fewer) care suites and ILUs. This has, in our view, beena high risk, high reward, strategy that looks to be paying off. The care suite model substantially improves capex recovery, cashconversion of annuity earnings and DMF. The risk primarily relates to demand; will the product work? We are of the view that the "usecase" for care suites is strong, however, it is a relatively untested product in New Zealand. The early signs are positive, but OCA is, inour view, a high risk, high reward stock.

If anyone could please PM me and I will give you my email to send this research through to me that would be much appreciated.
Hey Maverick, it looks like the drunk monkey's are starting to sober / wake up ;)
P.S. Thank you folks for so many kind offers to share information, I have it now and will review and comment ASAP.

[Beagle]

In a nutshell Forsyth Barr have underlying eps as follows
FY21 8.0 cps
FY22 9.7 cps
FY23 11.2 cps.

They use these assumptions to arrive at a target price of $1.65.

I see their figures as being extremely conservative and I think the analysts will be scrambling to publish significant upgrades once OCA report their half year results to 30/11/20 in late January 2021.

[Waltzing]

share on fire!!! comparatively speaking!!! thank goodness we bought a few more shares the other day. I think a few commentators might be moving the market very very early!

DISC: run multiple private portfolios in holdings ltds and trusts.

[Bjauck]

share on fire!!! comparatively speaking!!! thank goodness we bought a few more shares the other day. I think a few commentators might be moving the market very very early!

DISC: run multiple private portfolios in holdings ltds and trusts. In a professional capacity?

[Waltzing]

If i was working for a commercial fund or government fund i would disclose.

Private only the same as all retail investors here. If we move to provide any commercial services from technologies we may have investments in i would disclose it.

I do have access to technologies for private use that are industrial in nature as a private investor in those technologies but they are not technologies that are list in any public traded companies. They are held by private investors and are not technologies the public can invest in.

Here i am a private retail investor who portfolios are like others here who are directors and trustees.

Similar to Mr Percy and others who are also trustees.

Many of you will be in similar positions im sure.

The only difference being we have a large amount of software in use that would be similar in nature to larger commercial operations and major technology firms.

I would disclose if i was a professional manager of public funds. No we are not.

[wagwan]

Brief Notes - We upgrade Oceania Healthcare (OCA) to OUTPERFORM with a target price of NZ$1.65... This has, in our view, been a high risk, high reward, strategy that looks to be paying off. The care suite model substantially improves capex recovery, cash conversion of annuity earnings and DMF. The risk primarily relates to demand; will the product work? We are of the view that the "use case" for care suites is strong, however, it is a relatively untested product in New Zealand. The early signs are positive, but OCA is, in our view, a high risk, high reward stock.

Research and commentary from Europe would suggest demand for care suites shouldn't be on the list of things keeping OCA holders awake at night:

ING Report on Elderly Care and Housing Demand in the EU, see images attached

1201812019

Financial Times: https://www.ft.com/content/98665438-9661-11e9-98b9-e38c177b152f

Sebastian O’Kelly, director of the campaign group Better Retirement Housing, says the historic approach to retirement housing is broken — a model he characterises as “granny flats built by volume housebuilders, sold at a premium in blocks with limited parking, leases loaded with revenue streams and the freehold sold to speculators.”Instead, retirement community operators are looking at the sector in a different way, he says. “They build sites. They manage them. They provide complex services — communal areas, restaurant, gym, maybe a pool, and care provision. This is the sector exciting serious investment from the likes of Goldman Sachs and Blackstone.”


Overlay all that with the fact that soon to be residents across the country are currently watching the value of their properties go through the roof. Psychologically that's important, as it feeds people's perception of their personal wealth, and by extension their willingness to spend.

Those luxury OCA suites and care units now look pretty inviting...

[Waltzing]

even if the big posters here have not moved the market there comments have come at a time when property is taking off far faster than anyone could have predicted with any certainty a few months ago.

Funny things is every time MR B posts a great set of numbers followed by MR M the market has gone up!!!!

Could they be the biggest influences on this stock at the moment!!!!

[Beagle]

With the average value of a house in Auckland now knocking on $1m, the relative affordability of OCA's apartments and care suites is another factor to be remembered.
For example here's a nice new apartment in a good area for $580K https://www.trademe.co.nz/a/property/retirement-villages/listing/2771144599?bof=P0T8fbZ8
Fixed weekly fees for life and no more maintenance and lawns to mow...what's not to like !

[Beagle]

even if the big posters here have not moved the market there comments have come at a time when property is taking off far faster than anyone could have predicted with any certainty a few months ago.

Funny things is every time MR B posts a great set of numbers followed by MR M the market has gone up!!!!

Could they be the biggest influences on this stock at the moment!!!!

Maybe some of the analysts are watching what certain posters have to say ;)

[winner69]

even if the big posters here have not moved the market there comments have come at a time when property is taking off far faster than anyone could have predicted with any certainty a few months ago.

Funny things is every time MR B posts a great set of numbers followed by MR M the market has gone up!!!!

Could they be the biggest influences on this stock at the moment!!!!

t_j’s mates at Forbar also pretty good at moving markets ....maybe loading their clients accounts up before it’s too late.

[winner69]

Maybe some of the analysts are watching what certain posters have to say ;)

Didn’t listen very well ....their forecasts are still very conservative aren’t they.

[Beagle]

Didn’t listen very well ....their forecasts are still very conservative aren’t they.

VERY conservative. Watch for Forsyth Barr to do another 55 cent upgrade to its price target after the interim results.

[Greekwatchdog]

So CS's will be up for a big upgrade based on their info..

[Waltzing]

we have two trust accounts at FB , i can check to see what they are thinking. "they we" moved PTC to ARG earlier as they considered ARG like us to be a winner.....

MR B still got his upgrade in earlier than FB and CS.

juts might have to buy some more!

snootie is going to be throwing up in the bog bowl if auckland does an HK...

not sure why the south island thinks there is something in common with auckland.

its like the difference between Malmo and Landskrona...

[winner69]

From Hedgeye today

[bull....]

going great this stock.
all it took after 4 years of suffering for long term holders was a bond issue announcement to fire up the market lol as we always said every dog has its day lol im out again

[Waltzing]

in more...2 days ago. ave .1.15 chart has said buy... short term chart says sell but if its rerated no its a hold and buy...

you should not always apply short term chart to long term investments... big mistake...

read the old timers book... oh that my generation.. the charts were amazing in details... we hope to work on that shortly..as of course they employed people to do just that.

makes yahoo charts a joke.

[Alpha]

Welcome back bull. Smart move riding the breakout higher again...although it could easily be argued it was even smarter to simply hold and be patient and save on the brokerage of selling and buying back ;)


Didn't stay very long.

Looks like a pretty clear run after 1.40 to me

[winner69]

Didn't stay very long.

Looks like a pretty clear run after 1.40 to me

all blue sky after 140

Like 150 and then we’ll say 160 and then $1.70 and in expectation of this boomer result in January it’ll be over 2 bucks

[Waltzing]

your all buying again then today? :scared: is that the sound of stampeding feet as people dive for there cell phones and desk tops, laptops and emails to brokers...

[Onion]

all blue sky after 140

Like 150 and then we’ll say 160 and then $1.70 and in expectation of this boomer result in January it’ll be over 2 bucks

This SP movement is creating problems for my portfolio. My overweight position is getting positively obese. And Judith says I should have more self-control!

:)

[winner69]

This SP movement is creating problems for my portfolio. My overweight position is getting positively obese. And Judith says I should have more self-control!

:)

Only worry if it gets to Gerry proportions

Don’t worry about weightings ...let the winners run, esp as the race has just started

CAN’T HAVE TOO MANY OCA ...or something like that

[Alpha]

I've just freed up some funds. Was going to take a pretty (very) high risk bet on SKT but think it would be wiser to place most of the funds here.

Disc - Hold of both.

[winner69]

I've just freed up some funds. Was going to take a pretty (very) high risk bet on SKT but think it would be wiser to place most of the funds here.

Disc - Hold of both.

Forbar say 'high risk' here alpha .....but heck they have to say something to make out what they talking about ..... only risk is not getting to 2 bucks next year

[Beagle]

Didn't stay very long.

Looks like a pretty clear run after 1.40 to me


all blue sky after 140

Like 150 and then we’ll say 160 and then $1.70 and in expectation of this boomer result in January it’ll be over 2 bucks

I couldn't agree more. The analysts are only just starting to get to grips with this one. Maverick and I have been laboring away at it for years...and as mentioned earlier, I am expecting some big upgrades after they report in late January.

My revised price target 12 months from now is $2.16 but it might get there sooner !

[thegreatestben]

I've got a good chunk with ANZ and thought about departing with them to take on some more OCA and PEB. Think I should hold them through the upcoming results announcement after waiting all this time though.

[winner69]

I've got a good chunk with ANZ and thought about departing with them to take on some more OCA and PEB. Think I should hold them through the upcoming results announcement after waiting all this time though.

Shouldn't try to sway you but ................

[thegreatestben]

I do have a lot of OCA already :t_up:

[winner69]

Who came up with INFLECTION in respect of OCA first?

Seems to have first mentioned on ST on July 23rd

Everybody now including guru broker analysts with CFA after their name are using it now

Must be that time

[Beagle]

Was nearly $1.40 not that long ago ...about last Xmas

Things look brighter now

So it’s back to 130/140 when MET money comes through

That’ll be good


Yes I did. See post #6118 (last sentence above). Not explicitly said by them that the last quarter was a loss but they did keep referencing 9 months so the overall sense is this is a very satisfactory result for what ostensibly amounts to 9 months of profitable operations.

Note change of balance date next year to 31 March 2021 (ten months next year). They expect their 217 new units to be completed within that 10 month period. My VERY PRELIMINARY thinking is FY21 will be in the range of $50-55m for the ten month period, (annualised rate of approx. $60-66m). I expect annualised underlying earnings of circa 10 cps. Forward PE at $1.00 is about 10.

Makes for an interesting comparison with my estimate of forward underlying PE for SUM of 19-20 and ARV, (premilitary thinking 15-16).

OCA is a slow burner but has reached the point of inflection where ~ 50% of its units are premium and I always said that was the right time to invest for the long term. As they roll out the remaining 20% of premium care suites, beds and premium apartments and start to generate recurring DMF revenues from the ORA model I think we can look forward to steady growth in the years ahead.

Steady growth does not normally go with a forward PE of just 10, especially in this sort of ultra low interest rate environment when even a no growth stock should command a PE of at least 11.5 in my opinion.

I remain comfortable with my 1 year price target of $1.38. Happy long term holder. OCA is being priced as a no growth stock...time will tell if this is correct or not but I think the pathway to profit growth is clear enough to see in the years ahead.

23 July as you noted Winner. I have upgraded underlying earnings expectations since then to 10 cps for the ten months to 31/3/21, (annualized, 12cps, some 50% higher than Forbar's latest estimate)

You have done very well with your prophetic post from around the same time, well done Sir !

I think there's a real chance this could be $2+ sometime in 2021, possibly quite early in the year :t_up:

[Mrbuyit]

Approaching a new ATH, the last drp at ~98c certainly seems like a bargain now. Part of me is sad that the next accumiltion won't be so cheap..
This run reminds me of the Xmas run last year but I'm holding about 5x what I had then, in part due to the conviction of holders that contribute to this thread and the bunch of time it traded well below nta..
My first purchase at $1.16 in September 2018 would bee looking relatively sad if it were not for some aggressive dca in the last ~6 months.. Thanks to those that have taken thier time to share views and give a deeper explanation of the growth prospects / process.

[winner69]

Brief Notes - We upgrade Oceania Healthcare (OCA) to OUTPERFORM with a target price of NZ$1.65 (from NZ$1.10). We believe OCA's higheraverage charges and focus on care suites over traditional care is a key beneficiary of the current buoyant market environment forresidential homes and high demand for care. We believe OCA to be at an inflection point with its transition from traditional careoperator towards a premium operator charging through deferred management fees (DMF) and re-sale gains. We expect OCA toalmost double annuity earnings over the coming three years and deliver the highest cash recovery of new capex in the sector. ShouldOCA deliver on our expectations and the buoyant market continue, we see substantial further upside medium term.The worst is behind us, time to look aheadOCA has had, by some margin, the worst development of all the aged care operators over the last four years; annuity earnings havedeclined by almost 30% and only 50% of capex has been recovered in the form of new sales. This has been a deliberate strategy byOCA to de-commission one third of its existing care beds to replace them with (fewer) care suites and ILUs. This has, in our view, beena high risk, high reward, strategy that looks to be paying off. The care suite model substantially improves capex recovery, cashconversion of annuity earnings and DMF. The risk primarily relates to demand; will the product work? We are of the view that the "usecase" for care suites is strong, however, it is a relatively untested product in New Zealand. The early signs are positive, but OCA is, inour view, a high risk, high reward stock.

Guru broker analyst using terms like annuity earnings is awesome

I think Oceania use the term annuity-like earnings in several presos.

Maybe I'm a drunk monkey as well as I dont totally comprehend but annuity-like earnings sounds like something that keeps on keeping

In simple language what are these annuity-like earnings

[Greekwatchdog]

Winner I think the drunk Monkeys have mostly sobered up and those that aren't are still stuck in AA class. Soon they will be all clear..

[winner69]

Close at 139 ....high for the day is a really positive sign

Bound to go over 140 tomorrow

No worries

[Beagle]

I think if I remember correctly the previous all time high was $1.38 so we've got a new all time high and if I remember correctly I believe that technical analyst guru's around here get pretty excited about the clear air a new all time high creates. Perhaps Baa Baa can chime in with some TA comment about the significance of a fresh all time high ?

Technically and fundamentally this is starting to look very encouraging but its very early days and I think only a small handful of the drunk monkey's have only just just started to sober up. Wait till the half year results in late January and they won't know what hit them !

[winner69]

I think if I remember correctly the previous all time high was $1.38 so we've got a new all time high and if I remember correctly I believe that technical analyst guru's around here get pretty excited about the clear air a new all time high creates. Perhaps Baa Baa can chime in with some TA comment about the significance of a fresh all time high ?

Technically and fundamentally this is starting to look very encouraging but its very early days and I think only a small handful of the drunk monkey's have only just just started to sober up. Wait till the half year results in late January and they won't know what hit them !

The waltzing man will say its a double top and some world crisis or something will see the price fall back to under a buck :);):eek2::ohmy::cool:

[Beagle]

The waltzing man will say its a double top and some world crisis or something will see the price fall back to under a buck :);):eek2::ohmy::cool:

LOL...no I think he's sobered up already and come good. :)

Index change regarding a takeover usually involves also a rebalance as the size of the company going out is quite different to the size of the company coming into the NZX50. (Recall what happened in mid December 2017 when XRO came out of the index...massive buying of a wide range of other securities, not just the company replacing it in the index).

Will we see something similar next week with MET coming out which could see significant funds reinvested into other stocks in this sector including OCA late next Tuesday afternoon ? Keep an eye on the share price action in the last fifteen minutes of trade on Tuesday next week, it could be quite "interesting".

$1.50 next week ? Maybe,...watch this space !

If I keep guessing this index change influence thing enough times eventually I might be right lol

[Baa_Baa]

Perhaps Baa Baa can chime in with some TA comment about the significance of a fresh all time high ?

Currently closed at ATH $1.39, nice bullish run past three weeks. Weekly chart log scale (https://invst.ly/sgxlu). A break above is blue sky, but I'll call short term resistance at $1.50 (joining up the highs). Let's see if it can get there and bust through, then who knows. Might have to do a Fibonacci extension!

[winner69]

Really good SUM had a great sales result which has continued to help boost their share price and bring OCA along for the ride

Test now is to see if OCA can do it all by itself

But suppose if both continue on their merry way it'll be good

[Maverick]

Currently closed at ATH $1.39, nice bullish run past three weeks. Weekly chart log scale (https://invst.ly/sgxlu). A break above is blue sky, but I'll call short term resistance at $1.50 (joining up the highs). Let's see if it can get there and bust through, then who knows. Might have to do a Fibonacci extension!
While I always check myself in such euphoria as this knowing it won't last I really think this time is peculiar. In the medium term neither fundamentals nor charts really matter right now.

What is happening in my view is the perfect un-storm. Basically OCA is coming of age while there is a sh*t ton of multiple sources of money looking for a home ( especially in property) and sent raining down on this straight from the heavens from the investment Gods : the green lights from 2 brokers so far....

While this is all fluff for long termers as many of us are, I do personally take great joy of being vindicated by the very market that has been telling us that we were wrong all this time.

( and quite frankly...while Credit Suisse and Forsyth are recognizing some of the growth ahead...after analysing their reports, neither of them really get what's just around the corner...I'm saying they are only about half way there so far...I know" that seems arrogant considering the company I am in" but that's how the maths stack up. )

[Waltzing]

"sh*t ton of " money? yes are charts much use at the moment? who knows but i think money wont emerge in one month but over the next 6 months as some people start to panic...

Oh! thank you Mr B. 2.5 Dollars then inside 3 years.

Im thinking we need to buy yet more... that in 3 portfolios...please stay down a bit longer or better yet can we have a sell off on the euro and us markets... oh look ... euros markets down 2 %

[Beagle]

Should OCA deliver on our expectations and the buoyant market continue, we see substantial further upside medium term.
Forsyth Barr.
They are on the right track, they just need more of a vision like the top gun team here have with their eyes fixed on the big prize over the next decade.

[Baa_Baa]

Should OCA deliver on our expectations and the buoyant market continue, we see substantial further upside medium term.
Forsyth Barr.
They are on the right track, they just need more of a vision like the top gun team here have with their eyes fixed on the big prize over the next decade.

If one projects out the capital development for just the currently owned land, and make a guess at how many incremental ‘properties’ That adds up to, the balance sheet growth, FCF and under lying profits are eye watering over the next decade. That assumes no more land acquisitions! At just over a buck, it seems almost criminal to be able to buy an income stream and huge capital gains to come, but that’s the longer term thing about early investing in successful companies. One day when we check into our OCA villa, it will be satisfying that the company paid us for it.

😀

[value_investor]

Really buoyant so far but I'd like to see some results on the back on this before we all get carried away and taken back to Earth on it. Positive signs in the market generally but correlation is not equal to causation and I'm still worried on the care side of things.

[Waltzing]

"Eye watering" ... we better buy more...

housing development round here went ballistic last 3 years, including 3 new rest homes.

[allfromacell]

The chart of this stock is looking fantastic, the market is finally believing the story? If the story starts becoming true we're off into the blue sky.

Feeling euphoric yet guys? Lol

[Blue Skies]

The chart of this stock is looking fantastic, the market is finally believing the story? If the story starts becoming true we're off into the blue sky.

Feeling euphoric yet guys? Lol


Went heavily into OCA in 2018, remember when apparently you just 'couldn't have enough of them'!
Well that didn't work out so well, and for a very long time OCA were the single unloved dark spot in my portfolio.
Resigned myself at one stage to accepting might have to go deep in the bottom drawer, & be a very long term investment despite watching the Directors buying large parcels at various stages (seemingly contrary to the questions being raised by the difficulty many posters were having interpreting the companies updates) & a few like Mav never losing faith.
So now OCA finally feeling the love, yes darn right, feeling the euphoria. :)

[Joshuatree]

This observation was not at any Oceania places. Appreciate any other experiences shared and what a solution can be.

What im noticing in High needs care facilities.
Covid has stressed out the system especially the carers.

There is now a high turnover of staff happening, not good.some great long term staff have gone.
Some of the staff are burnt out and have lost the empathy for residents
Some new staff dont have empathy ,its certainly not their calling

Have some staff gone back to their country or not had work visas extended?
Despite access now being available to family members etc to come and help(eg feeding at meal times) clients are being neglected (due to overwork)

Regulations like having to use a hoist for most clients means 2 staff are tied up for a while hence not getting to others in a timely way or at all.
This means for ex toileting doesnt happen at times leaving people sitting in their you know what for hours or longer.

A solution , one more staff member to take the ratio incrementally higher then current ratio (one staff to six clients i believe).
I understand they move staff around the places to help in busy times but this is not happening/helping where i visit .

[Waltzing]

no SP sell off 300 at the low... the markets look bullet proof... no stimulus ... no economy... lots of virus.... market not selling off... blue skys ahead... its la la land..as Richard Quest would say " a V e e r y P r o f i t a b le Y e a r !"

and to think that this time last year we were sunning it on the baltic and whatching OCA .... what a change a year makes. I think we were about to join the others on the flights back to NZ what a good move that was!!

Never seen a northern winter.

Oh dear we have a "get back to earth poster" what are they thinking....


2 new rests home here and a 3rd on the way... they all look happy happy happy to me as we wheez past everyday....

10 of millions of new housing popping up around them...

Houses prices around here on fire again.

pop the bubbles people pop the bubbles!!

[Bjauck]

This observation was not at any Oceania places. Appreciate any other experiences shared and what a solution can be.

What im noticing in High needs care facilities.
Covid has stressed out the system especially the carers....
Interesting and sad observations. I have no experience of the covid situation in either rest home or hospital level care. However my observation prior to covid was that the system did not have much lee-way. Staffing was stretched and worked hard. Funding was spread thinly. So I can only imagine that the extra Covid demands have pushed that to stress levels.

[justakiwi]

If your comments are correct and your observations were not a one-off isolated case, it is your responsibility to lay a complaint with the manager in the first instance, then escalate further up if the issues are not addressed.

But make sure you have your facts correct, particularly about people not being toileted for hours. Because it is very easy to make assumptions on face value, without being fully aware of the facts. You may walk past a room and smell what you think is a soiled or wet product - it may be, or it may be a “leftover” smell from a product change or toileting accident that has just been dealt with. Sometimes even air fresheners don’t get rid of that smell. What I’m trying to diplomatically say is ... unless you have actually witnessed it with your own eyes ... things may not be what you assume them to be.

Having said that, if you do have evidence - do something about it! Protecting our elderly is not just the responsibility of caregivers. It is a community responsibility and we all need to step up and act if and when needed.


This observation was not at any Oceania places. Appreciate any other experiences shared and what a solution can be.

What im noticing in High needs care facilities.
Covid has stressed out the system especially the carers.

There is now a high turnover of staff happening, not good.some great long term staff have gone.
Some of the staff are burnt out and have lost the empathy for residents
Some new staff dont have empathy ,its certainly not their calling

Have some staff gone back to their country or not had work visas extended?
Despite access now being available to family members etc to come and help(eg feeding at meal times) clients are being neglected (due to overwork)

Regulations like having to use a hoist for most clients means 2 staff are tied up for a while hence not getting to others in a timely way or at all.
This means for ex toileting doesnt happen at times leaving people sitting in their you know what for hours or longer.

A solution , one more staff member to take the ratio incrementally higher then current ratio (one staff to six clients i believe).
I understand they move staff around the places to help in busy times but this is not happening/helping where i visit .

[Beagle]

If one projects out the capital development for just the currently owned land, and make a guess at how many incremental ‘properties’ That adds up to, the balance sheet growth, FCF and under lying profits are eye watering over the next decade. That assumes no more land acquisitions! At just over a buck, it seems almost criminal to be able to buy an income stream and huge capital gains to come, but that’s the longer term thing about early investing in successful companies. One day when we check into our OCA villa, it will be satisfying that the company paid us for it.

😀

You're on to it mate, just as cunning as a hungry Beagle ;) I want one of the stunning new north facing St Heliers apartments with commanding sea views for free.

[Waltzing]

Waiting, waiting, its about to lift past 1.40.

Im not swapping golden triangle for auckland apartments. Your joking. View or no view that sea way is polluted.

45 minutes to beach here, or 1 hour the east cost.

yellow 9 foot is ready for summer surf.

[winner69]

JTs’s comments may be of a general nature or maybe specific. Whatever this was an interesting article (at least I thought so) about how covid has crushed the humanity out of care.

Maybe not totally so in NZ yet but our time will inevitably come when society has to address who pays for care (general and aged) and could even be a threat / challenge to profitable and efficient aged care models here.

https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2020/oct/15/covid-care-crisis-humanity-efficiency-money

[Waltzing]

No no no, not reading anything negative in the spring. Besides this is the new zealand market and you only need to walk past the new houses going up like a field of DUTCH TULIPS around here.

1.41 ....

wish we had the same holdings as last year.

Have to buy some more in yet another holding company...

Might be time to put up a daily chart for the NZX as a log in charting tool next year. Might even provide it free for some sharetrader people..selected only of course. Costs a lot to server up a server side app running dynamically. Node JS cheap but not the apps i have in mind. Cheap node js wont cut it.

[Beagle]

The annual report tells wonderful heart warming accounts of the extraordinary length's OCA staff went too to look after our vulnerable elderly residents during the lockdown. http://nzx-prod-s7fsd7f98s.s3-website-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/attachments/OCA/356711/326868.pdf

I'm really proud to support a company that looks after people with upmost care. Its not all just about money, (bet you never thought you'd hear a bean counter say that !)
People being looked after really well matters heaps to me, (the feel good doing the right thing) and I know it really matters to the team at OCA too !
If you can't be bothered reading the whole report, just read the cover "Handled with Care"...says it all...

Couta1 in his role has been into a lot of different healthcare facilities over the years and I know he really rates OCA care right up there with the best, on the same level with their care as Ryman. He's a straight shooter and I am more than happy to accept his assurance at face value.

[trader_jackson]

I noticed something quite interesting... As of right now, Oceania's share price is higher than Heartland's (OCA is at $1.45, HGH is at $1.43)... I believe this is the first time this has happened.

I remember a few years ago when I mentioned Arvida's share price will one day overtake Heartlands... I remember it quite fondly as I was essentially laughed all the way out of the room. (ARV's share price has been ahead of Heartlands for quite some time now)

[dompf]

I noticed something quite interesting... As of right now, Oceania's share price is higher than Heartland's (OCA is at $1.45, HGH is at $1.43)... I believe this is the first time this has happened.

I remember a few years ago when I mentioned Arvida's share price will one day overtake Heartlands... I remember it quite fondly as I was essentially laughed all the way out of the room. (ARV's share price has been ahead of Heartlands for quite some time now)

Looks like there's a lot of people wanting a piece of OCA and not many people wanting to sell; there is some serious blue sky at the moment. Mirrors the outside as its a nice day today.

[dr_]

How wonderfull this is. Thanks to peoples who offloaded at 39c six months ago and gave me an opportunity to collect over 100k volumes more. I am laughing....:t_up:

[dompf]

How wonderfull this is. Thanks to peoples who offloaded at 39c six months ago and gave me an opportunity to collect over 100k volumes more. I am laughing....:t_up:

Didnt the out going CFO fire sell a heap of shares at sub 40c? boy, he must be kicking himself now

[Alpha]

close today 1.60.....

[shazam]

Didnt the out going CFO fire sell a heap of shares at sub 40c? boy, he must be kicking himself now

Probably why he's no longer CFO.

[winner69]

Looks like there's a lot of people wanting a piece of OCA and not many people wanting to sell; there is some serious blue sky at the moment. Mirrors the outside as its a nice day today.

Hope the shareprice doesn’t fly as high as Icarus did

At 2 bucks by Christmas be OK

[BlackPeter]

Hope the shareprice doesn’t fly as high as Icarus did


Good point .... SP does look a bit frothy at current, doesn't it?

[winner69]

Ben Graham was a guru

Times like this remind of his sage wisdom

“In a roaring bull market, knowledge is superfluous and experience is a handicap.”

Think it means don’t overthink it ...just keep on buying OCA

[James108]

I’ve long thought that sum and oca were undervalued when compared to ryman. I wonder if the market finally agrees with me or if this is an aberration.

[winner69]

LOL...no I think he's sobered up already and come good. :)

Index change regarding a takeover usually involves also a rebalance as the size of the company going out is quite different to the size of the company coming into the NZX50. (Recall what happened in mid December 2017 when XRO came out of the index...massive buying of a wide range of other securities, not just the company replacing it in the index).

Will we see something similar next week with MET coming out which could see significant funds reinvested into other stocks in this sector including OCA late next Tuesday afternoon ? Keep an eye on the share price action in the last fifteen minutes of trade on Tuesday next week, it could be quite "interesting".

$1.50 next week ? Maybe,...watch this space !

If I keep guessing this index change influence thing enough times eventually I might be right lol

Jeez what will happen if NZ Superfund put half their MET cash in to OCA

Probably won’t happen because OCA trading at more than NTA and as such not good valued ...or way over valued for them

[Beagle]

A reminder, I am forecasting eps of 10 cps for the 10 months to 31/3/21, (annualised eps of 12 cps) This is much higher than Forsyth Barr is forecasting at 8 cps.
The sector average PE is 18. 12 cps x 18 = $2.16 is where I see fair value.

We will see who is right when they report their FY21 results in late May 2021. I was very close with my estimate of FY20 earnings. I feel I know the company very well now.

[Cyclical]

This one posted on the 29th of September:


Out of interest, I looked back on my spreadsheet to the 21st of May and see that on that day I sold all of may SUM @ $6.12 and loaded up with OCA @ .78.

Roll forward 4 and a bit months (where did that time go??) and at time of writing we have:

SUM $8.95 (46% gain)
OCA $1.11 (42% gain)

Not a hell of a lot in it and if we look at today's high for both, it would probably be even Stevens. Pretty handy results for both, no matter which way you look at it.

Roll forward 2 and half weeks and how things have changed. While both have made excellent gains in that time, OCA is neck and shoulders ahead:

SUM $10.30 (68% gain since 21/5)
OCA $1.45 (86% gain since 21/5)

I haven't looked at the others in the sector, but any concerns that OCA was being a bit short changed compared to SUM others look to have been addressed, and some. I like the company, believe in the story and have the portfolio heavily weighted in their favour, but just hope we're not getting too far ahead of ourselves. On the one hand I don't think it's a screaming buy anymore, but on the other, the analysts are starting to take notice and there's this "wall of money" from TD's looking for yield.

Blue sky out...hope it lasts the weekend ;)

[bottomfeeder]

Sold a half of my holding today. Hard to believe that market cap has doubled in last six months. Is it really worth one billion more. Anyway I thought MET was kind to me, OCA is amazing. Can you imagine where MET would be nowif we werent "forced" out.

[Manukatana]

What a bull run..

[winner69]

A reminder, I am forecasting eps of 10 cps for the 10 months to 31/3/21, (annualised eps of 12 cps) This is much higher than Forsyth Barr is forecasting at 8 cps.
The sector average PE is 18. 12 cps x 18 = $2.16 is where I see fair value.

We will see who is right when they report their FY21 results in late May 2021. I was very close with my estimate of FY20 earnings. I feel I know the company very well now.


So in the 140's is still so so cheap

Forbar target out of date next week?

[Cyclical]

Can you imagine where MET would be nowif we werent "forced" out.

You'd hope the directors are looking at this and thinking they were royally shafted.

[Cyclical]

Jeez what will happen if NZ Superfund put half their MET cash in to OCA

Probably won’t happen because OCA trading at more than NTA and as such not good valued ...or way over valued for them

Good point re their pile of cash. Thing is, where is the value in today's market? Or do NZ Super need to reset their perspectives to reflect today's stimulated environment, just like the rest of us. Idiots for giving it away in the first place.

[Beagle]

This one posted on the 29th of September:



Roll forward 2 and half weeks and how things have changed. While both have made excellent gains in that time, OCA is neck and shoulders ahead:

SUM $10.30 (68% gain since 21/5)
OCA $1.45 (86% gain since 21/5)

I haven't looked at the others in the sector, but any concerns that OCA was being a bit short changed compared to SUM others look to have been addressed, and some. I like the company, believe in the story and have the portfolio heavily weighted in their favour, but just hope we're not getting too far ahead of ourselves. On the one hand I don't think it's a screaming buy anymore, but on the other, the analysts are starting to take notice and there's this "wall of money" from TD's looking for yield.

Blue sky out...hope it lasts the weekend ;)

If my estimate of annualised FY21 earnings of 12 cps is right at $1.44 they're on a forward PE of 12. The ten year Govt stock risk free rate was 0.55% the other day when I looked. Ben Graham's well known PE for a no growth company was 8.5 for a 10 year risk free rate of 4%. 1 / 8.5 = earnings yield of 11.76% which is a 7.76% premium over the risk free rate. Using that same premium over the risk free rate now gives 7.76% + 0.55% = required earnings yield of 8.31% = PE of 12.
With interest rates where they are and looking to stay at historical lows for the foreseeable future I see the right PE for a no growth company as 12.

The market is therefore currently pricing OCA as though its never going to grow and / or isn't going to make annualized earnings of 12 cps, probably the latter as analysts are clearly showing growth in the years ahead but are far below FY21 estimates of earnings that Maverick and I have.
My contention is therefore that over time as OCA earns the respect and trust of the investment community as a genuine growth story we will see it rerated to the market medium PE for this sector of 18. I think a lot of that trust and respect will be earned in FY21 as the market wakes up to the fact this company really has passed the inflection point and its going to grow nicely in the years ahead which is why I see a rerating to 12 x 18 = $2.16 next year or early in 2022.

But first things first, we need to see that earnings growth in FY21, (first evidence will be first half earnings to be reported in late January 2021). I think its pretty obvious that growth is coming but seeing it confirmed will be the next leg up and a big one in my opinion. I think we will see the share price continue to rerate strongly in 2021.

[Jay]

Don't want to be a party pooper, but it must take a breather soonish with a pull back, but how far and how long before it continues.
I'm no technical guru by any stretch, but with the RSI at just over 91 , while it can stay above the the 70/80 line for a length of time it must retract at some point to do that.
I think some will get to a point and decide to sell and lock in gains and this will cause it come back at bit in the price and RSI and/or flatten??

Watching closish!
Disc: Holding - not enough as it now seems

[BlackPeter]

You'd hope the directors are looking at this and thinking they were royally shafted.

Pretty sure nobody shafted the MET directors, they got well rewarded for their incompetence.

The people who got shafted are the shareholders, but anyway - this is a different thread.

[bottomfeeder]

Clear that valuations of property were too low at ba.ance date. Perhaps after the election, when the money dries up, by balance date, the valuations could be stagnating. Its a possibility.

[Bjauck]

How wonderfull this is. Thanks to peoples who offloaded at 39c six months ago and gave me an opportunity to collect over 100k volumes more. I am laughing....:t_up: Excellent timing. So many were fearful of the future at that stage.

[Leftfield]

Don't want to be a party pooper, but it must take a breather soonish with a pull back, but how far and how long before it continues.
I'm no technical guru by any stretch, but with the RSI at just over 91 , while it can stay above the the 70/80 line for a length of time it must retract at some point to do that.
I think some will get to a point and decide to sell and lock in gains and this will cause it come back at bit in the price and RSI and/or flatten??

Watching closish!
Disc: Holding - not enough as it now seems

I'm with you. As a holder I'm really enjoying this run but from a TA aspect it looks a tab overcooked. Maybe the $1.50 area will see a pull back. But who knows, the long term view is much more interesting.

Beagle, Maverick and others are on the case with their FA's which point to a 2021 SP of over $2.00. I'm happy with that (my av holding SP of $0.96). I'll add more if there is any short term pull back. In the meantime, I'm loving the ride and keeping some cash ready.

Thanks to all the posters on this forum who have kept us so well informed.

[BlackPeter]

Excellent timing. So many were fearful of the future at that stage.

Lets hope the current SP is closer to the real value than the 39 cents have been 6 months ago :); We have seen what fear can do to holders, maybe now we are seeing what greed does to buyers?

[Cyclical]

If my estimate of annualised FY21 earnings of 12 cps is right at $1.44 they're on a forward PE of 12. The ten year Govt stock risk free rate was 0.55% the other day when I looked. Ben Graham's well known PE for a no growth company was 8.5 for a 10 year risk free rate of 4%. 1 / 8.5 = earnings yield of 11.76% which is a 7.76% premium over the risk free rate. Using that same premium over the risk free rate now gives 7.76% + 0.55% = required earnings yield of 8.31% = PE of 12.
With interest rates where they are and looking to stay at historical lows for the foreseeable future I see the right PE for a no growth company as 12.

The market is therefore currently pricing OCA as though its never going to grow and / or isn't going to make annualized earnings of 12 cps, probably the latter as analysts are clearly showing growth in the years ahead but are far below FY21 estimates of earnings that Maverick and I have.
My contention is therefore that over time as OCA earns the respect and trust of the investment community as a genuine growth story we will see it rerated to the market medium PE for this sector of 18. I think a lot of that trust and respect will be earned in FY21 as the market wakes up to the fact this company really has passed the inflection point and its going to grow nicely in the years ahead which is why I see a rerating to 12 x 18 = $2.16 next year or early in 2022.

But first things first, we need to see that earnings growth in FY21, (first evidence will be first half earnings to be reported in late January 2021). I think its pretty obvious that growth is coming but seeing it confirmed will be the next leg up and a big one in my opinion. I think we will see the share price continue to rerate strongly in 2021.

Good post thanks Beagle.

Of course, given today's interest rates are nothing like what Ben Graham used as a reference point back then, one would expect going forward that 7.76% premium to come under a lot of pressure, with a PE of 12 being very conservative even for a no growth company. Bodes well for the future of the OCA SP (target PE of 20 anyone?), but right now, we must be due for some profit taking (market wide?). Don't listen to me though, most of the last 6 months have gone against my expectations.

[Joshuatree]

Interesting and sad observations. I have no experience of the covid situation in either rest home or hospital level care. However my observation prior to covid was that the system did not have much lee-way. Staffing was stretched and worked hard. Funding was spread thinly. So I can only imagine that the extra Covid demands have pushed that to stress levels.

Agree with that.Im not blaming staff or anyone really atp.Dont want to stress out already stressed workers but need a solution, improvement for our family member. We are going there re 5 times a week atm at feed times.We are doing more investigation and thanks for your thoughts Justakiwi.We have a meeting with a staff member soon. One consideration is looking at another care company operations (a listed one), ive had some good feedback about their operations, systems etc.

[justakiwi]

Maybe “at meal times” would be a better use of words here. Just a suggestion.


Agree with that.Im not blaming staff or anyone really atp.Dont want to stress out already stressed workers but need a solution, improvement for our family member. We are going there re 5 times a week atm at feed times.We are doing more investigation and thanks for your thoughts Justakiwi.We have a meeting with a staff member soon. One consideration is looking at another care company operations (a listed one), ive had some good feedback about their operations, systems etc.

[Joshuatree]

I wish but its a bit of both unfort.

[winner69]

Beagle me old mate and true believer in Ben Graham

If you really believed Ben's formula then OCA Intrinsic value is $5.15

Based on current EPS of 7 cents (and that's not the covid look through of 8 cents / EPS growth of a miserable 10% taken from the numbers you posted from Forbar report with me extrapolating out for 7 years with modest growth from 2023 / and used SUM bond rate 1.7% as current bond yields (jeez if I used govt rate the number is so high its ridiculous) and using Ben's revised formula V = EPS x (8.5+2g) x 4.4 / Y (Bond rate)

If I used 0.55% as 10 Year Govt Bond rate the Intrinsic Value is over $16



Pretty cool eh ....but Ben did say in The Intelligent Investor that his formula was pretty crap.

[justakiwi]

Yes I do understand that sometimes caregivers need to actively spoon feed residents who have very high care needs. But the language we use goes a long way to showing respect and humanity. The caregivers or family members who are actively spoon feeding your family member, are “supporting him/her at meal times” not “helping with feeding time.”

We are caring for human beings, not animals. Just saying :sleep:


I wish but its a bit of both unfort.

[Waltzing]

but in Mr Grahams day money was almost still real stuff....1 ment 1 , negative was minus and positive was electrifying..... just saying....hit 1.48 before someone came on and popped the party...balloon.

[bottomfeeder]

Beagle me old mate and true believer in Ben Graham

If you really believed Ben's formula then OCA Intrinsic value is $5.15

Based on current EPS of 7 cents (and that's not the covid look through of 8 cents / EPS growth of a miserable 10% taken from the numbers you posted from Forbar report with me extrapolating out for 7 years with modest growth from 2023 / and used SUM bond rate 1.7% as current bond yields (jeez if I used govt rate the number is so high its ridiculous) and using Ben's revised formula V = EPS x (8.5+2g) x 4.4 / Y (Bond rate)

If I used 0.55% as 10 Year Govt Bond rate the Intrinsic Value is over $16



Pretty cool eh ....but Ben did say in The Intelligent Investor that his formula was pretty crap.

The value of the shares is continually dependent on the low interest rate environment remaining. Will interest rates remain low if inflation starts to increase above the Reserve Bank mandate. Also can banks hold these low interest rate yields on deposits, taking into account the risks of lending, and also the depositors taking out their Term Deposits and either buying shares, houses, beach houses, boats, and cars. Sooner or later the rubber band will break and interest rates will start to rise. When will this happen? that is the multibillion dollar question.

[Waltzing]

which means? look for them to do another bond issue next year? Lock in the low interest rates and increase the conversion rate?

has any stock actually on the NZX performed to the BG formula? and does intrinsic value ever ever get a lookin on actual share prices paid.

it could take at least 3 years before the market starts to absorb demand with a revamp of the RMA.

prices in the upper central north island may well decouple from the south island.

ARV PE is starting to move high up there for growth?

SUM P/E up there!

RYM P/E up there!

well those are big P/E's

[Beagle]

Ultra low interest rates for the foreseeable future, possibly the rest of this decade is how I see it.

Winner, what's the market average PE ? Apply that to OCA and what do you get ?
What's the much slower growing RYM PE, (answer historical PE is 30.6) apply that to OCA and you get $3.67

I suspect both answers start with three dollars something. Couldn't happen, surely not ?...or in a few years could it ?

Heck, even SUM is on a forward PE of over 20 now. 20 x 12 = $2.40 and I reckon OCA's growth prospects are at least as good as SUM's.

[Waltzing]

"most of the last 6 months have gone against my expectations."

yes we agree but we decided to move into defensive early and then move into the market in july and its been up up and away ever since!

No SP sell off last night when it should have run for the hills... this market is just not doing what it supposed to and we have been rewarded. If you stayed away ...

wonderful retreat today...

[winner69]

Hope we finish up for the day

Otherwise I'll be reading in market commentary 'OCA saw profit taking after a strong run up to record highs'

OMG - I could be a market commentator / journo and make a living writing crap things that punters love to read

[couta1]

Hope we finish up for the day

Otherwise I'll be reading in market commentary 'OCA saw profit taking after a strong run up to record highs'

OMG - I could be a market commentator / journo and make a living writing crap things that punters love to read Yeah I often laugh at the reasons these commentators give for daily sp drops, I reckon they make it up or take a guess most of the time.

[winner69]

Yeah I often laugh at the reasons these commentators give for daily sp drops, I reckon they make it up or take a guess most of the time.

Most have a list of phrases which they regularly use ...limited vocabulary

[Beagle]

Hope we finish up for the day

Otherwise I'll be reading in market commentary 'OCA saw profit taking after a strong run up to record highs'

OMG - I could be a market commentator / journo and make a living writing crap things that punters love to read

You've missed your calling lol

[bottomfeeder]

I hope I didnt jinx this, but I bought back some of what I sold this morning, at 10 cents less. Just like getting a dividend.

[Waltzing]

if the chart is similar to before...the sell off's run down for a while...

[Beagle]

Hardly a sell off. Down 2 cents. That said some consolidation around the current level is to be expected I would have thought, before the next leg higher.

[Zaphod]

Hardly a sell off. Down 2 cents. That said some consolidation around the current level is to be expected I would have thought, before the next leg higher.

I think Waltz means that for those that purchased @ 147 and 148 today, during the frenzy, there's been a sell down since.

[Waltzing]

yeees but the open and close are what is recorded... and the chart wont show it ... MR B is Correct. How ever i am expecting this to go side ways for a while.... expecting but if people believe .. well the usual chart thing might not happen. good day to see it fail the 150 mark thank you. Only because we just dont have any where near what we need... and wont have since we nearly fully allocated until 2 stocks return to profit... oh well there will be another crisis..just too many people on the planet to avoid them....

as Richard Quest would say

A Ve e ry Pro o f i t a b l e Y ee a rrr!

[winner69]

Today’s action must have made be an interesting candle pattern on the chart ....any name for it ....looks bearish or too early to tell.

[Waltzing]

wonder which fund winner works for ...

photo deleted ,,, you had to be fast.....

[Curly]

Promising am but ****e pm.
Signal of things to come perhaps.

[couta1]

Today’s action must have made be an interesting candle pattern on the chart ....any name for it ....looks bearish or too early to tell. The name is Back to Base but not the $1 base probably a new base of around $1.20.

[Curly]

You’re looking at the base price now I’d say

[Waltzing]

the 3 times its retraced its averaged about 12 cents and does so over for about 5-6 months.

[Beagle]

The name is Back to Base but not the $1 base probably a new base of around $1.20.

In your dreams mate :p

[couta1]

You’re looking at the base price now I’d say Now how many times have I heard that.

[Cyclical]

The name is Back to Base but not the $1 base probably a new base of around $1.20.


In your dreams mate :p


You’re looking at the base price now I’d say


Now how many times have I heard that.

It wasn't that long ago peeps were saying stuff like it'll never be below a dollar again...well that was proven incorrect on more than one occasion. Yeah I reckon a new base at ~$1.20 isn't unlikely, especially if and when there's a little correction on the dow or sumink. Chuck another decent covid outbreak in the mix and it may well go lower. I'm not concerned though, the general trend is up and a healthy correction at this point will be a short lived opportunity for topping up.

[peat]

Today’s action must have made be an interesting candle pattern on the chart ....any name for it ....looks bearish or too early to tell.

12026


I reckon its closest to a shooting star

What is a Shooting Star?

A shooting star is a bearish candlestick (https://www.investopedia.com/terms/c/candlestick.asp) with a long upper shadow (https://www.investopedia.com/terms/s/shadow.asp), little or no lower shadow, and a small real body near the low of the day. It appears after an uptrend. Said differently, a shooting star is a type of candlestick that forms when a security opens (https://www.investopedia.com/terms/o/openingprice.asp), advances significantly, but then closes the day near the open again.


So sell everyone sell !! we've shot our load


To add to our understanding of a shooting star (if thats what it is) ...


The candle that forms after the shooting star is what confirms (https://www.investopedia.com/terms/c/confirmation.asp) the shooting star candle. The next candle's high must stay below the high of the shooting star and then proceed to close below the close of the shooting star. Ideally, the candle after the shooting star gaps (https://www.investopedia.com/terms/g/gap.asp) lower or opens near the prior close and then moves lower on heavy volume. A down day after a shooting star helps confirm the price reversal and indicates the price could continue to fall. Traders may look to sell or short sell.


If the price rises after a shooting star, the price range of the shooting star may still act as resistance.

[bottomfeeder]

If its been there once it will go there again, unless there is an adverse announcement. But not necessarilly in one day.

[Beagle]

If its been there once it will go there again, unless there is an adverse announcement. But not necessarilly in one day.

I'm with you mate and at my core am a value investor. I respect TA and do the basics like not buying in a confirmed downtrend, (unless there is extraordinary deep value that's completely irrational) and like basic indicators like seeing my belief in the fundamental's supported by a rising trendline. Buying a half sized position on a break about the 30 day moving average and the rest on a break up through the 100 day moving average is one of my favorite approaches but always supported by a deep conviction about the fundamental's. I seldom if ever buy on TA alone...but with the TA stuff I think its best to stick to the confirmed trends. I leave the abandoned baby and shooting star type theories to others.

This is now in a nice confirmed uptrend supported by compelling fundamental's.

[Maverick]

I'm kind of glad the share price fell a bit before the weekend. There is something “grounding “ about it so rational thinking can resume for the 2 day holiday.


There is no doubt that the rapid SP rise was solely on the back of public recent reratings by 2 analysts (out of 3) . “4 traders” website has the 3 OCA analysts average target price now of $1.40. It seems highly likely that the 3rd analyst will upgrade too when he gets to it.


I have been lucky enough to have been sent both of those reports from a friend here. After spending a couple of days on the Credit Suisse report I see 2 clear mistakes (the rest of the report is excellent) they have made which produces a significant undershoot in their underlying expectations.
This gets technical but “a must” to understand for any serious OCA investor….


First, they have used an assumed ILU price of $720ish by averaging an apartment ($1100ish) and a villa ($480k ish). Problem with this is OCA’s pipeline is 90% apartments and only 10 % villas. See the issue? This makes a massive difference to the bottom line as income from new sales and future annuity like DMFs are seriously understated.


Second, is to do with the forward assumed resale price % increases. Here they have again averaged the historical resale returns of a care suit (10%) and a ILU(29%) to come up with 19%. What they have missed is the care suits churn every 2.5 years so , apples for apples , care suits actually should be adjusted to 30% resale margin to line up with a 7 year ILU churn. Or better still , actually treat care suits as a completely indepenadant bunch of numbers on their workings.

In a nut shell, thats 3 out of the 4 income streams where these incorrect assumptions are coming up short . The 4th income stream is DHB care fees, I don't think we should ever expect any income growth coming from there.

Respectfully, I suggest Credit Suisse have tried to condense the OCA numbers so they fit into an existing SUM or RYM template which doesn't account for OCA’s complex different weightings of high and low value offerings, all the while churning at different rates.


Forsyth have made almost exactly the same assumptions as CS and their net result is similar to Credit Suisse.


However what we all can agree on together, is that there is about 15% CAGR in profit in the next 3 years (neither 2 project further than this). It's just that I start from a much higher 2021 base and I am even more bullish with the CAGR. Id like to add Beagles latest earning numbers here are almost identical to mine and for the record we both work independently.


So I'm saying the latest analyst figures are quite wrong to the underside. These minor errors may seem small buried somewhere in a spreadsheet but produces a result significant under shooting on the bottom line.This tells me that the story is still not understood properly even by the larger broking houses.


I fully respect the analysts composing these reports . So for clarity , my comment about “ drunk monkeys“ the other day which has taken some traction here was never pointed at them for a moment. We all do agree on all the other well laid out stuff.
While they will be much smarter than myself, I can say am right on this and they are wrong only because personally I have all day to fully focus specifically on a just few companies I'm interested in. These poor fellas will have to spread themselves thin all over the place under a ton of pressure and deadlines. No swanning around the country doing site visits for them!

However ,the share price is moved by their words , not lil’ ol’ Mavericks or Beagles butfrankly, what difference does a short term shareprice fluctuation make to a non- trader anyway?


Late January is judgement day when I'm saying there will be a seriously major uplift in underlying profit well ahead of any expectations to date.
My conviction on these statements and stock (covid withstanding) is such that if I am proved to be wrong I should be expected to "turn in my wings."

[Waltzing]

This stock has never retraced 20 cents over a 4-6 month period on the open and close.

It would take a large event to move the price down from a high off 1.40.. Intra day 1.49 to 1.20.

Im afraid this stock has put in a pattern that reflects market sentiment on its EPS performance in relation to the other sector listed companies.

1.20 is highly unlikely from here but it possible if bad news events occur.

In relation to the post by the leading private investor analyst we are hopeful they continue to get the numbers wrong as we have gone from over weight in 2019 to very very under weight in 2020!

Thankfully we have got exposure through ARG, KPG, GMT (T) , Retail, KMD (T), HLG , and a few underwater stocks in cyclicals that wont pop back until vaccines are distributed in 2022.

Thats right people vaccines wont be here for the public in the world until 2022 for everyone who needs them, either jabs or nasal.

(T) stands for trading. Else it is marked as HOLD.

Some of these names for chart elements remind me of some sociology text i have in a large family book collection.

[couta1]

This stock has never retraced 20 cents over a 4-6 month period on the open and close.

It would take a large event to move the price down from a high off 1.40.. Intra day 1.49 to 1.20.

Im afraid this stock has put in a pattern that reflects market sentiment on its EPS performance in relation to the other sector listed companies.

1.20 is highly unlikely from here but it possible if bad news events occur. We are talking about the sharemarket here, expect the unexpected at all times.

[Beagle]

When the analysts get back from their summer holiday's in late January they are going to be scrambling to seriously update their valuations, mark my words.

[couta1]

When the analysts get back from their summer holiday's in late January they are going to be scrambling to seriously update their valuations, mark my words. Long term this is still the pick of the sector in my opinion, will be the first to double in value from here.

[Waltzing]

"expect the unexpected at all times."

well then we will be very lucky and we can move from under under weight to having a few more!!!

The numbers are the numbers and the chart is clear. except for one big variance. Chart people.. get with the chart. The chart is you and you are the chart.

A blow out in EURO and US virus waves may cause some flux.

[Beagle]

The future is uncertain but there is no fate when it comes to portfolio performance, but what we make for ourselves.

[Waltzing]

govt locks in funds at super low rates for decade. fund managers not expecting inflation for a decade. OCA may be able to bond issue again for low rates and increase conversions.

We are thinking in the next 5 years those you can move there free profits to stronger currency investments will possible prosper.

NZ just did not take the leap we hoped it would in the crisis that MR O offered the government.

List property stocks should probably all go bond issuance at super low rates.

I hate to say it but MR B called it. Low for a decade.

[macduffy]

Thanks Maverick. But what do you think about Credit Suisse's assumption of an average apartment price of $1.1m? Is this an assumption or an actual price? Seems a bit on the high side to me.

[Maverick]

Thanks Maverick. But what do you think about Credit Suisse's assumption of an average apartment price of $1.1m? Is this an assumption or an actual price? Seems a bit on the high side to me.
Hi MacDuffy.
last years actual OCA sales figures were apartments at $1131 per apartment and villas at $467. OCA present these figures individually and are consistent with 2 years gone by.
(Previously FY18 -$973 and FY 19-$998k)
However in their more general blurb they simply descibe these 2 offerings classed together as an ILU.
Credit Suisse have not assumed the $1131 wrong , it's just they have watered it down by averaging it with a villa ( of which OCA make bugger all). They have used the mid point for their workings to use as one ILU price fits all. In fact have a nice graph displaying their future assumptions of agregate ILUs figure sitting around the $700-$750.

I have considered and priced in that there will be an average drop in the apartment prices as the Nelson ones are only selling for $580-$825. But in reality Nelson is really about care suits and don't have many apartments. In the mean time OCA still have a load of Auckland meadow bank and a handful of Browns bay left to sell which will hold the apartment prices up for a while.
In which time OCA will have a truck load of Hamitlon, Auckland and Tauranga apartments coming on stream which will hold the average up. CERTAINLY not $720.
FWIW my own apartment assumptions; FY2021 is a drop down to FY21 $960 and FY22 $850 and then heading back up again. I now consider too low given the property market fizz.

Also of interest to me when talking with Nelson was some of the recently finished Nelson care suits are going for $400k which is an OCA record....and they are selling:scared::scared::scared: !

I kind of feel like apologising for these long and technical posts but I don't see how I can communicate this complicated story any easier...which I think is OCAs biggest problem too ...for now.:t_up:

[Beat the Bank]

I kind of feel like apologising for these long and technical posts but I don't see how I can communicate this complicated story any easier...which I think is OCAs biggest problem too ...for now.:t_up:[/QUOTE

No apologies Maverick. We really appreciate you and others sharing your skills and hard work with us. Some of us have offset our losses from earlier this year (banks, ZEL) by following shared thoughts on this forum.

[Maverick]

No apologies Maverick. We really appreciate you and others sharing your skills and hard work with us. Some of us have offset our losses from earlier this year (banks, ZEL) by following shared thoughts on this forum.[/QUOTE]
kind of you to say Beat the Bank, thank you. In the years ahead you will have some good insights and between us all here we have a good chance of Beating the Insto's.

[Waltzing]

i second , or third or, fourth n that.

Thank you Mr B and Mr M.

[baaantom]

Agreed, thank you all for your insightful analysis.

[macduffy]

Yes, many thanks for your detailed analysis there, Maverick. No apology ever needed for taking the time to explain!

:)

[Baa_Baa]

Ditto that, blessed to have deep insights shared with us, certainly appreciated.

[dubya]

I can only ditto the above comments too. With OCA being my largest holding I find the posts on this thread and the depth of analysis absolutely invaluable. Thanks A LOT guys.:t_up:

[baaantom]

From post #6793 (https://www.sharetrader.co.nz/showthread.php?9856-Oceania-Group-retirement-villages&p=849753&viewfull=1#post849753)
.....What's he's talking about is the real money, not the 25% development margin.
For example John and Jenny buy a lovely unit at say Ellerslie for say $650K. Nine years later when they pass away their estate gets back about $450K after deductions but the unit is resold for $1,450K with nine years compound capital growth in value and the company makes $1m tax free on resale which is obviously vastly more than the 25% development margin when the $650K unit was first sold = $162K which was taxable.
....

Hey Beagle,

Could you please explain why the initial development margin is taxable income? I can understand the re-sale gain is essentially a tax free capital gain however not too sure why the initial sale is treated differently? It seems to me that the property when first developed is essentially trading-stock and then subsequently converted to a fixed asset?

Cheers

[Beagle]

Disc: I don't do the financials' for any property company so this is not a tax opinion it is simply my understanding of the position.
Developed properties go straight to being fixed assets and are never sold, simply a license to occupy is issued in return for an interest free loan from the incoming resident.
Upon initial development there is a one off gain between the development cost and the initial value at which the transfer is made to fixed assets, (the development margin) which I understand as a property developer is taxed. I don't believe they're ever trading stock per se as no trading of the actual ownership of each unit ever occurs merely a license to occupy is issued.

The arrangement whereby someone loans OCA say $400K interest free for the right to occupy a care suite and agrees to pay $X a week in care fees comes under the financial arrangements provisions of the income tax act and I understand there has been a binding ruling that means that while retirement operators must pay tax on any profits from the weekly fees and tax of the 30% retention they take when the resident vacates the unit, (less the costs of refurbishment), they can reissue another license to occupy at a higher price down the track without any tax impost.

The above could easily be wrong, its simply my understanding of the system.

[James108]

A large part of the development cost is also capitalised (I.e roads, communal areas) and does not appear as part of the development margin in the income statement. I treat the “development margin” with a bit of caution as it does NOT mean that if all the units sell on a $100m development at 30% margin you now have $130m.

[baaantom]

Great, thanks for that. Appreciated.

[Beagle]

A large part of the development cost is also capitalised (I.e roads, communal areas) and does not appear as part of the development margin in the income statement. I treat the “development margin” with a bit of caution as it does NOT mean that if all the units sell on a $100m development at 30% margin you now have $130m.

Quite right mate. The real money is not in the development margin for the issue of the first license to occupy, its in the reissue of the second, third, fourth and so on new license's to occupy down the track. In many ways the first occupants get the best deal with brand spanking new communal living area's to enjoy.

[Waltzing]

Tax position on refurbishments cost?

[Maverick]

A large part of the development cost is also capitalised (I.e roads, communal areas) and does not appear as part of the development margin in the income statement. I treat the “development margin” with a bit of caution as it does NOT mean that if all the units sell on a $100m development at 30% margin you now have $130m.

Ahhhhh.....so that's why they don't bother with building swimming pools ;)

[Beagle]

Tax position on refurbishments cost?

Tax deductible.

[Waltzing]

Thank you Mr B. Just double checking.

[Snow Leopard]

It strikes me that it would be a good idea for people to [re]read the full year financial statements, very definitely including the notes (especially 3), and get a grip on investment property versus property, plant & equipement and the different tax treatments thereof.

You should also spot when a road is included in the development margin and when it is not and other exciting things to improve your understanding.

Careful analysis of the Presentation materials is also encouraged but UNDER NO CIRCUMSTANCES WHATSOEVER should you attempt to make sense of Note 5 of the financials. For that path leads to madness:
https://img.huffingtonpost.com/asset/5d01d9dd210000dc18ec07c7.jpeg?ops=scalefit_630_nou pscale

[Maverick]

I'm kind of glad the share price fell a bit before the weekend. There is something “grounding “ about it so rational thinking can resume for the 2 day holiday.


There is no doubt that the rapid SP rise was solely on the back of public recent reratings by 2 analysts (out of 3) . “4 traders” website has the 3 OCA analysts average target price now of $1.40. It seems highly likely that the 3rd analyst will upgrade too when he gets to it.


I have been lucky enough to have been sent both of those reports from a friend here. After spending a couple of days on the Credit Suisse report I see 2 clear mistakes (the rest of the report is excellent) they have made which produces a significant undershoot in their underlying expectations.
This gets technical but “a must” to understand for any serious OCA investor….


First, they have used an assumed ILU price of $720ish by averaging an apartment ($1100ish) and a villa ($480k ish). Problem with this is OCA’s pipeline is 90% apartments and only 10 % villas. See the issue? This makes a massive difference to the bottom line as income from new sales and future annuity like DMFs are seriously understated.


Second, is to do with the forward assumed resale price % increases. Here they have again averaged the historical resale returns of a care suit (10%) and a ILU(29%) to come up with 19%. What they have missed is the care suits churn every 2.5 years so , apples for apples , care suits actually should be adjusted to 30% resale margin to line up with a 7 year ILU churn. Or better still , actually treat care suits as a completely indepenadant bunch of numbers on their workings.

In a nut shell, thats 3 out of the 4 income streams where these incorrect assumptions are coming up short . The 4th income stream is DHB care fees, I don't think we should ever expect any income growth coming from there.

Respectfully, I suggest Credit Suisse have tried to condense the OCA numbers so they fit into an existing SUM or RYM template which doesn't account for OCA’s complex different weightings of high and low value offerings, all the while churning at different rates.


Forsyth have made almost exactly the same assumptions as CS and their net result is similar to Credit Suisse.


However what we all can agree on together, is that there is about 15% CAGR in profit in the next 3 years (neither 2 project further than this). It's just that I start from a much higher 2021 base and I am even more bullish with the CAGR. Id like to add Beagles latest earning numbers here are almost identical to mine and for the record we both work independently.


So I'm saying the latest analyst figures are quite wrong to the underside. These minor errors may seem small buried somewhere in a spreadsheet but produces a result significant under shooting on the bottom line.This tells me that the story is still not understood properly even by the larger broking houses.


I fully respect the analysts composing these reports . So for clarity , my comment about “ drunk monkeys“ the other day which has taken some traction here was never pointed at them for a moment. We all do agree on all the other well laid out stuff.
While they will be much smarter than myself, I can say am right on this and they are wrong only because personally I have all day to fully focus specifically on a just few companies I'm interested in. These poor fellas will have to spread themselves thin all over the place under a ton of pressure and deadlines. No swanning around the country doing site visits for them!

However ,the share price is moved by their words , not lil’ ol’ Mavericks or Beagles butfrankly, what difference does a short term shareprice fluctuation make to a non- trader anyway?


Late January is judgement day when I'm saying there will be a seriously major uplift in underlying profit well ahead of any expectations to date.
My conviction on these statements and stock (covid withstanding) is such that if I am proved to be wrong I should be expected to "turn in my wings."

Well , it seems the 3rd analyst upgraded his recommendation over the weekend. We now have had all 3 recently upgrade their ratings to "outperform, buy and buy". It's worth a couple of minutes checking the scale on "4 traders " website under consensus. It really is a sight to behold for us long sufferers here.
The little arrow has now shifted from the middle "hold " area to the extreme end of the " buy" indicator. All in 2 weeks.

Good luck with the SP pull back your team were hoping for now Waltzing man...that's a heck of a current to be rowing against after this.

Back to the real stuff (FA).... If anybody's has access to the 3rd analysts workings I would really appreciate a pointer to where I can find it. Cheers.

[Bjauck]

Well , it seems the 3rd analyst upgraded his recommendation over the weekend. We now have had all 3 recently upgrade their ratings to "outperform, buy and buy". It's worth a couple of minutes checking the scale on "4 traders " website under consensus. It really is a sight to behold for us long sufferers.
The little arrow has now shifted from the middle "hold " area to the extreme end of the " buy" indicator. All in 2 weeks.

If anybody's has access to the 3rd analysts workings I would really appreciate a pointer to where I can find it. Cheers. Thanks for all your posts Maverick. The analysts public releases are catching up with how things have turned out - Henny Penny's sky did not fall down after all!

[Beagle]

https://www.marketscreener.com/quote/stock/OCEANIA-HEALTHCARE-LIMITE-103506268/consensus/

Analysts are starting to wake up to the growth ahead. As mentioned last week, I predict major upgrades from them all after the interim results in late January 2021.

I do not think they are fully comprehending that the valuers wrote down unsold units at balance date especially harshly due to their perception of values at that date.
There is 10 cps in earnings in just selling down stock at balance date at prices assumed by OCA, (not at the values that may be prevailing in the market at present), which is up from 8 cps as at the interim result last year, an extra $2 cps or $12m in extra earnings.

I remain comfortable with my estimate of earnings for the 10 months ended 31 March 2020 of 10 cps, (annualized 12 cps), well north of even the most optimistic analyst. I see the split being approx $35m underlying profit in the first half and $25m in the second period.

I think the analysts are spread pretty thin and don't have the time to do the really detailed analysis like some professional investors do.

[peat]

someone asked what candle formation it was ....
sorry to suggest selling guys , one should never fight the wave of enthusiasm from Mr B and Mr M's posts and go against it.
N.B. It wasnt a perfect shooting star

(disclaimer:have not sold from 1.09)
but as some one trying work their depleted capital harder I must admit I was tempted tho..l

[peat]

As part of our continual learning experience I am reposting the info on the price pattern required the day after the shooting star so we can all follow whether the sh.st. is confirmed.



[*=1]The candle that forms after the shooting star is what confirms (https://www.investopedia.com/terms/c/confirmation.asp) the shooting star candle.






[*=1]The next candle's high must stay below the high of the shooting star and then proceed to close below the close of the shooting star.






[*=1]Ideally, the candle after the shooting star gaps (https://www.investopedia.com/terms/g/gap.asp) lower or opens near the prior close and then moves lower on heavy volume.






[*=1]A down day after a shooting star helps confirm the price reversal and indicates the price could continue to fall. Traders may look to sell or short sell.






[*=1]If the price rises after a shooting star, the price range of the shooting star may still act as resistance.





Obviously the rationale behind a shooting star is that it found massive resistance at those levels, so despite our enthusiasm for the FA , traders may still wish to note this point and follow up on todays outcome

[winner69]

Broker analyst target prices are predetermined by prevailing share price

Once they got that sorted they write their story and do their sums to suit

[Waltzing]

shooting stars.....crikey ... look up to the heavens!!!

im going down to upgrade my telescope .... after all hubble needed a bigger one..

is Jacinda a shooting star... did she just take another leap higher? how high do these stars go!?? :scared::scared::scared:

[peat]

candles encapsulate sentiment very well indeed. you really should have some understanding of them for trading and even investing could benefit from using longer time frame candles eg monthly.


shooting stars.....

im going down to upgrade my telescope .... after all hubble needed a bigger one..

is Jacinda a shooting star... did she just take another leap higher? how high do these stars go!?? :scared::scared::scared:

[Waltzing]

you light as many candles as you like but ill stick to runtime dynamic accounting models thanks.

In other words i wait for the FA as we dont trade this stock it just not the type of stock we trade.

It either a BUY, HOLD or SELL and not on a monthly basis

oh wait that all you can do with a stock ....:scared:

[Snow Leopard]

....
Back to the real stuff (FA).... If anybody's has access to the 3rd analysts workings I would really appreciate a pointer to where I can find it. Cheers.

Just phone them up, tell them you the Maverick on Sharetrader and I am sure they will gladly give you a copy if you promise to tell them where their analysis is wrong.
:p.

You re-read the accounts & presentations yet?

[peat]

you light as many candles as you like

not trying to get on your wick, or into your beeswax , just contributing in the way I can. and I will shut up after this. Candles are not cosmic , or akin to reading tea leaves like many think of TA especially the pattern analysis stuff
They are more like your moving averages. You cannot deny their facts They use O:H:L:C and they portray that info at a glance. Whats not to like:? /end of general candle rant (apart from possible further analysis of OCA)

[Maverick]

Just phone them up, tell them you the Maverick on Sharetrader and I am sure they will gladly give you a copy if you promise to tell them where their analysis is wrong.
:p.

You re-read the accounts & presentations yet?
I'm really not sure what part of note 3 and 5 you are pointing out? There is a lot of stuff in there. If you are alluding to yesterdays chat here about how communal roads and ground work etc is classified accounting wise , then yes I had a refresh just for fun. However I don't really see any dramas of how its all classified.

Some here put quite an emphasis on asset backing of a retirement village. In a takeover scenario , fair enough. Otherwise this seems rather pointless in my mind as nothing ever gets sold on the open market anyway. To me its all about the that profit comes from those assets that is value. So whatever column on a balance sheet a road or driveway ends up in is of little interest to me.

I don't know who the 3rd analysts is to phone( if you were serious?). Further to that I'm not in the business of debunking everybody who I disagree with , I just have to understand why we disagree and adjust my model accordingly. Just turns out this time around no adjustment is necessary on my part as I have tried to explain here.

I never know how to take you Snow Leopard? I figure I`ve just wasted 10 minute of my life that I wont get back...but just maybe you are steering us to something of value??? I am very willing to listen, that's what this forum is all about.

[Maverick]

not trying to get on your wick, or into your beeswax , just contributing in the way I can. and I will shut up after this. Candles are not cosmic , or akin to reading tea leaves like many think of TA especially the pattern analysis stuff
They are more like your moving averages. You cannot deny their facts They use O:H:L:C and they portray that info at a glance. Whats not to like:? /end of general candle rant (apart from possible further analysis of OCA)
I liked your candle thing Peat....its interesting.

[thegreatestben]

Shouldn't try to sway you but ................

Is this still a good moment to buy more OCA or could we see a decline in the SP?

Beagle is the 1.36 the new $1 for you?

[Waltzing]

the flows of money into stock markets is a bit like a dam which opens it gates on a rotating timer to varying degrees with the interval reset every few cycles as the weather changes in a climate change disaster... attaching lovely names to these cycles has been something to write about for a long time... we have some lovely old charts from the 1980 and 1990's (US based ) around and boy they are far better than anything ive seen on the internet created with a bit of javascript on an Html canvas.

price at the moment is anyones until the FA comes out. It may decline a little and move sideways for a while until the next FA comes out.

[peat]

I liked your candle thing Peat....its interesting.
cheers mate

Candles have been around since the 1700;s and were used at that time in the Japanese rice markets. So its not like its just me....

As today is (so far ) an 'inner day (inside the previous candle body ) there is nothing so far that contradicts the confirmation of the shooting star.... but it will need to close a bit lower to become an ideal confirmation , we have the volume we have the down day but we dont have any strong south movement - yet. I will comment again after close.
12028 (prior to daily close)


(Still holding)

[dompf]

Good to see OCA holding up as SUM and RYM slipped back a bit today. Interesting day tomorrow when possibly see some MET money coming back in to the sector!

Shooting star is a worry In the tea leaves but long term on this looks good.

Thanks to all contributors

[Beagle]

Is this still a good moment to buy more OCA or could we see a decline in the SP?

Beagle is the 1.36 the new $1 for you?

I made a number of significant top-up's to my shareholding in the $1.30 - $1.41 range last week after a significant term deposit matured on Friday the previous week.. Actions speak louder than words. I think its pretty clear where this is headed in the medium to long term.

As expected, the MET takeover is now effectively done and dusted. https://www.nzx.com/announcements/361703

Where is some of that $1.27 Billion of cash going to be reinvested ?

[King1212]

Met is taken down...so all money will go to OCA ARV and SUM.

[Beagle]

Met is taken down...so all money will go to OCA ARV and SUM.

Which one are the analysts the most keen on ;)

[850man]

End of an era... that Met rollercoaster was quite a ride, only rode it twice myself but VERY enjoyable experience:D

[King1212]

OCa of course!

[Waltzing]

well if this is the favourite im hoping for more shoooten staarrs...

sorry its my irish english DNA... the Irish side just gets carried away..

up up and away then? we will all have to send a commission to be MR B and Mr M but i suspect their holdings are over weight anyway..

[fish]

Good to see OCA holding up as SUM and RYM slipped back a bit today. Interesting day tomorrow when possibly see some MET money coming back in to the sector!

Shooting star is a worry In the tea leaves but long term on this looks good.

Thanks to all contributors

I feel MET SOA already factored into the price
Sold some today to buy a big shed
Having see what Covid did to the SP when I was over-invested in OCA I wonder what will happen next in this unstable World .

[Baa_Baa]

I feel MET SOA already factored into the price
Sold some today to buy a big shed
Having see what Covid did to the SP when I was over-invested in OCA I wonder what will happen next in this unstable World .

Now that you’re a trader, if you weren’t before, make sure you provision for tax on your capital gains.

Looking through the lens of a long term investor who has no time horizon to sell the assets, COVID was a blessing offering up an opportunity to accumulate a lot more shares at much lower prices - bringing down the average holding price of a much larger holding.

Gltah

[peat]

Now that you’re a trader, if you weren’t before, make sure you provision for tax on your capital gains.


Assumptions being made here..... he changed his mind, he needed a shed.

So a nothing day re price action huh, I wouldnt rule out the possibility of further falls but clearly there is some resilience to the price at these levels as opposed to 1.48

[Waltzing]

having been through a few crisis i feel its bit soon to sell this one when you have 2 FA reports to come and we are in the midst if the current crisis..

wont return to europe until 2022. there is a forecast from one economic metrics outfit for a recession 2021 in NZ.

The recession may effect certain demographics more than others.

[Baa_Baa]

Assumptions being made here..... he changed his mind, he needed a shed.

So a nothing day re price action huh, I wouldnt rule out the possibility of further falls but clearly there is some resilience to the price at these levels as opposed to 1.48

Interpretation, IRD doesn't care what your motivation is that changed your mind.

I do respect and enjoy your charts and patterns analysis, no dispute, though typically for my charts the minimum timeframe is weekly, or monthly. But I have no intention to sell this one, so am only interested in accumulating when the market decides to give me a deal.

[fish]

Now that you’re a trader, if you weren’t before, make sure you provision for tax on your capital gains.

Looking through the lens of a long term investor who has no time horizon to sell the assets, COVID was a blessing offering up an opportunity to accumulate a lot more shares at much lower prices - bringing down the average holding price of a much larger holding.

Gltah

A mute point .
I buy with the intention of holding long-term but circumstances change and my mind changes.
Therefore my accountant says I am not a trader.
I only sold about 5% of my holding and I am a long-term holder .
I might be wrong in my assumption .
I keep a record of my intentions

[Baa_Baa]

A mute point .
I buy with the intention of holding long-term but circumstances change and my mind changes.
Therefore my accountant says I am not a trader.
I only sold about 5% of my holding and I am a long-term holder .
I might be wrong in my assumption .
I keep a record of my intentions

OTY to do what you want to, a 'moot' point perhaps. From my time with the IRD, I prefer now to having nothing to do with them, I always use a big five accountant to front my interactions with IRD and provision for any possible downside eventuality. You sign a terms of engagement with your accountant that waives their culpability, regardless of what they advise you. Hopefully their advice is the best you can afford to buy. Your view of your intentions and actions do not necessarily reconcile with the IRD's view. Moreover, you broadcast your circumstance on a public forum, and despite your pseudonym, your identify is discoverable. Might be small beans but a lot of people here post with perhaps some false sense of impunity.

All the best.

[dompf]

OTY to do what you want to, a 'moot' point perhaps. From my time with the IRD, I prefer now to having nothing to do with them, I always use a big five accountant to front my interactions with IRD and provision for any possible downside eventuality. You sign a terms of engagement with your accountant that waives their culpability, regardless of what they advise you. Hopefully their advice is the best you can afford to buy. Your view of your intentions and actions do not necessarily reconcile with the IRD's view. Moreover, you broadcast your circumstance on a public forum, and despite your pseudonym, your identify is discoverable. Might be small beans but a lot of people here post with perhaps some false sense of impunity.

All the best.

Leave fish alone let him build his garage.

[couta1]

A mute point .
I buy with the intention of holding long-term but circumstances change and my mind changes.
Therefore my accountant says I am not a trader.
I only sold about 5% of my holding and I am a long-term holder .
I might be wrong in my assumption .
I keep a record of my intentions Circumstaces that change your intentions doesn't make you a trader if you bought as a long term hold, many things in life can come along that could influence a long term hold, its all about frequency of sales and yours don't sound that frequent.

[Ggcc]

OTY to do what you want to, a 'moot' point perhaps. From my time with the IRD, I prefer now to having nothing to do with them, I always use a big five accountant to front my interactions with IRD and provision for any possible downside eventuality. You sign a terms of engagement with your accountant that waives their culpability, regardless of what they advise you. Hopefully their advice is the best you can afford to buy. Your view of your intentions and actions do not necessarily reconcile with the IRD's view. Moreover, you broadcast your circumstance on a public forum, and despite your pseudonym, your identify is discoverable. Might be small beans but a lot of people here post with perhaps some false sense of impunity.

All the best.
There are many on here that claim not to traders, but are in fact traders of shares. I would agree to a bright line tax on shares

[Baa_Baa]

Circumstaces that change your intentions doesn't make you a trader if you bought as a long term hold, many things in life can come along that could influence a long term hold, its all about frequency of sales and yours don't sound that frequent.

I guess we're getting off topic but, until your own circumstance are tested by the IRD (and believe me you don't want that if there's ANY borderline interpretations) you don't and won't know. In my experience they don't care about changing motivations, or frequency of buy/sells, it's easy for them to just say (if necessary in court) ... "look 'investor', basically you bought some shares with the apparent intent to hold, but actually if anything comes up that you need the money for or are worried about capital losses for whatever reason you would sell. See, you sold in those circumstances, you're a trader, pay up your taxes", case closed.

[fish]

OTY to do what you want to, a 'moot' point perhaps. From my time with the IRD, I prefer now to having nothing to do with them, I always use a big five accountant to front my interactions with IRD and provision for any possible downside eventuality. You sign a terms of engagement with your accountant that waives their culpability, regardless of what they advise you. Hopefully their advice is the best you can afford to buy. Your view of your intentions and actions do not necessarily reconcile with the IRD's view. Moreover, you broadcast your circumstance on a public forum, and despite your pseudonym, your identify is discoverable. Might be small beans but a lot of people here post with perhaps some false sense of impunity.

All the best.

Thanks for the correction.
You are right -I should have said a moot point .
If the IRD should demand tax on profit by calling me a trader then they will have to accept loses and brokerage against profit.
For an investor like me I feel I should be allowed to sell without being taxed when the main reason is I have changed my mind and want to invest in something I will enjoy .
Do we not all invest with the intention of selling one day ? Does that make us all traders?

I am curious to know how many people on sharetrader have had disputes with the IRD as to their investor/trader status ?
A further thought-is it best not to post on sharetrader lest that could be used in court as evidence you have the appearance of a trader?

[couta1]

There are many on here that claim not to traders, but are in fact traders of shares. I would agree to a bright line tax on shares Absolutely, ditch the very grey intention test and bring in a 1 yr brightline test for any share sales unless you can prove undue hardship as a reason for selling earlier,.

[Baa_Baa]

Do we not all invest with the intention of selling when we would rather invest elsewhere so does that make us all traders.?

No, we don't all invest with the intent of selling. Many invest with the intent of growing their capital asset base ad infinitum and receiving a taxable income from it (preferably taxed at the company, i.e. imputed earnings), ergo the bigger the capital base, the bigger the income. If ones intent is to grow capital and receive dividends, but when adverse or other conditions motivate us to sell, to realise or protect capital, then by definition we are traders.

[fish]

No, we don't all invest with the intent of selling. Many invest with the intent of growing their capital asset base ad infinitum and receiving a taxable income from it (preferably taxed at the company, i.e. imputed earnings), ergo the bigger the capital base, the bigger the income. If ones intent is to grow capital and receive dividends, but when adverse or other conditions motivate us to sell, to realise or protect capital, then by definition we are traders.

I should have made myself clearer-I meant selling before we die-eg to buy the best OCA unit should we need .
Should you die holding shares then your estate will sell the shares .
So the shares are eventually traded in someway -making a trading loss or gain

[couta1]

Deleted because site would not allow me to put in word i wanted to.

[fish]

I guess we are all lost if the IRD investigate .
Maybe I should ask my accountant to change my status to a trader and claim all the expenses-office,computer,broadband ,brokerage,and share losses for peace of mind whilst tax rates are low .

[couta1]

I should have made myself clearer-I meant selling before we die-eg to buy the best OCA unit should we need .
Should you die holding shares then your estate will sell the shares .
So the shares are eventually traded in someway -making a trading loss or gain Winner has the best saying of all when he said everyone who buys shares is a trader, its just the frequency of trading that differs.

[fish]

The more I think about it the better it seems-I would have to attend AGMs ,Hotel and travel and meal expenses.
I would probably make a loss I could put against my professional income.

[couta1]

The more I think about it the better it seems-I would have to attend AGMs ,Hotel and travel and meal expenses.
I would probably make a loss I could put against my professional income. Haha,conversation between Mr Fish and IRD over two subsequent tax yrs. Year 1 Mr Fish wants to claim a nice loss but IRD says because Mr Fish has a day job he is not really a trader so can't claim the loss. Year 2 Mr Fish makes a nice profit but because he has a day job and couldn't claim a loss the year before he doesn't think he should pay tax but IRD says sorry Mr Fish you are definitely a trader.