OCA - Oceania Group - retirement villages

[Snoopy]

So I've accumulated a good chunk of these (all relative of course) over the last few months and my average is sub 80c. I'd like to buy another parcel with some cash that I may need to pull back out of the market again in the next few weeks or months, but in the interim hoping to make a tidy little capital gain.


Cyclical, seriously don't do this. If you need that money in the next few weeks or months, don't go anywhere near the stock market, With the stock market so high, volatility high, and such a small time frame, what you propose is pure gambling. Stick your money in a three month term deposit at 0.4%. That is about as risky as I would go in your situation.

SNOOPY

[bull....]

Right peeps, I wouldn't mind adding a few more of these to my portfolio too, but I'm in a bit of a predicament, and no doubt I'll cheese some off for going "off topic" and bringing up the T word again, for which I apologise in advance, but for me it is very pertinent to this stock and this thread does have a greater portion of switched on contributors, so here goes...

So I've accumulated a good chunk of these (all relative of course) over the last few months and my average is sub 80c. I'd like to buy another parcel with some cash that I may need to pull back out of the market again in the next few weeks or months, but in the interim hoping to make a tidy little capital gain. So let's say I bought a bunch today at 136c and sold them again in 2 or 3 months for say 163, netting a tidy 27c per share / 20% gain in the process. However, because my average buy for all my OCA is 80c, does the tax man consider this as an 83c gain, upon which I'm expected to pay 33%, or 27c per share? In which case all I've done is transfer 27c from other investors to the IRD. And in the quite likely scenario I don't manage to get that 20% gain, I'd be in the red. No doubt this is a grey area and the vast majority of investors / traders probably wouldn't give it a second thought, but unfortunately I am and it's seriously stopping me from plunging deeper into this stock. Any experts out there to tell me I've got it wrong and have nothing to worry about and to just go all in?!

Thanks in advance and sorry for the "off topic" but there's nothing else to do around here until January, right?

It first in first out for tax , couta wrong. yes if your a trader all trades are considered one so it would be on your 83c gains

[Beagle]

Great news out overnight from Pfizer. Vaccine with 90% efficacy. WOW. That gives a LOT of hope to a LOT of vulnerable people. Its a wonderful day for humanity ! https://news.sky.com/story/coronavirus-pfizer-vaccine-found-to-be-90-effective-in-great-day-for-science-and-humanity-12128452

[BlackPeter]

Cyclical, seriously don't do this. If you need that money in the next few weeks or months, don't go anywhere near the stock market, With the stock market so high, volatility high, and such a small time frame, what you propose is pure gambling. Stick your money in a three month term deposit at 0.4%. That is about as risky as I would go in your situation.

SNOOPY

Absolutely - very sensible comment.

Nobody can predict at any time what share market jitters are around the corner, and at current it does not even look like calm waters ahead. No guarantee for a peaceful transfer of power in the US. Northern hemisphere Covid wave will take a terrible toll. Economy will at some stage run out of borrowed money and unprecedented debt mountains might start crashing down on our economies.

Huge opportunities for traders, but even more than usual risks to put money short time into the share market.

[Cyclical]

Cyclical, seriously don't do this. If you need that money in the next few weeks or months, don't go anywhere near the stock market, With the stock market so high, volatility high, and such a small time frame, what you propose is pure gambling. Stick your money in a three month term deposit at 0.4%. That is about as risky as I would go in your situation.

SNOOPY


Absolutely - very sensible comment.

Nobody can predict at any time what share market jitters are around the corner, and at current it does not even look like calm waters ahead. No guarantee for a peaceful transfer of power in the US. Northern hemisphere Covid wave will take a terrible toll. Economy will at some stage run out of borrowed money and unprecedented debt mountains might start crashing down on our economies.

Huge opportunities for traders, but even more than usual risks to put money short time into the share market.

Thanks for the advice guys. I should probably rephrase from "may need" to "may want" those funds. It's not money that I'm going to be relying on specifically, so I'm comfortable with the risk and if I'm down 20% or something, I won't sell, no dramas.

Anyway, if what Bull is saying is the case, then it's just not worth it unfortunately. I wonder how many traders out there think like this. I myself was trading this stock back when it was on the 80s gaining a few percent here and there but completely oblivious to the fact that the tax could be reeming me considerably more than my gains :-(

[BlackPeter]

...

Anyway, if what Bull is saying is the case, then it's just not worth it unfortunately. I wonder how many traders out there think like this. I myself was trading this stock back when it was on the 80s gaining a few percent here and there but completely oblivious to the fact that the tax could be reeming me considerably more than my gains :-(

Never let the need for paying tax stop you to do a good deal. Sure - if you are trading, IRD will want its fair share ... however I can't see how they want more than that.

Say you pay the new top tax rate (39%) ... still better to gain 61% of a nice gain rather than to have nothing, isn't it?

[bull....]

Never let the need for paying tax stop you to do a good deal. Sure - if you are trading, IRD will want its fair share ... however I can't see how they want more than that.

Say you pay the new top tax rate (39%) ... still better to gain 61% of a nice gain rather than to have nothing, isn't it?

and just like property traders/ investors you need to take all the deductions of your tax bill too. as a long term share investor you do not cqualify for any deductions

[couta1]

It first in first out for tax , couta wrong. yes if your a trader all trades are considered one so it would be on your 83c gains Your talking bull**** bull and I reckon i know a whole lot more than you in this area, you can use LIFO or FIFO or the avg cost method, don't listen to bull cyclical, pm me and ill discuss with you.

[bull....]

Your talking bull**** bull and I reckon i know a whole lot more than you in this area, you can use LIFO or FIFO or the avg cost method, don't listen to bull cyclical, pm me and ill discuss with you.

you cant swap and choose as you like lol

[Cyclical]

Never let the need for paying tax stop you to do a good deal. Sure - if you are trading, IRD will want its fair share ... however I can't see how they want more than that.

Say you pay the new top tax rate (39%) ... still better to gain 61% of a nice gain rather than to have nothing, isn't it?

Agreed in principal, BP, but I'm not sure you understand my calculations...

Buy @ 136
Sell @ 163
Margin = 27c or 20%

Unfortunately it's not going to be 33% tax on the 27c (9c) because my average buy for OCA over the year is about 80c, so in the eyes of the IRD...

Sale of new parcel @ 163
Average buy = 80
Realised gain = 83
Tax @ 33% = 27c

That's a pretty tough result. Breaking even and that's before you consider brokerage and the risk that it may not see a 20% gain. Surely the system, if it is indeed strictly FIFO, is flawed and that LIFO would be a much fairer accounting method in this instance? Grey AF I suspect, unless it's well documented somewhere...?

[couta1]

you cant swap and choose as you like lol Its simple bull, if its an identified individual parcel, then you can use LIFO otherwise if your buying and selling continuously the same stock you have to use the avg cost price.

[bull....]

Its simple bull, if its an identified individual parcel, then you can use LIFO otherwise if your buying and selling continuously the same stock you have to use the avg cost price.

at the end of the day if your a trader your doing it to make money nothing else so when you wash things up your still paying the same tax either way

[couta1]

at the end of the day if your a trader your doing it to make money nothing else so when you wash things up your still paying the same tax either way Yes that's true but in relation to the question Cylical asked about whether his sale would be taxed according to the avg buy cost of his whole holding if he bought a specified trading parcel now, the answer is no it wouldn't, I'm taking it that the rest of his holding is a long term hold.

[Beagle]

There's a separate thread about tax here https://www.sharetrader.co.nz/showthread.php?8852-tax/page2&highlight=tax

Can we please get back to OCA ?
I would imagine there's huge relief amongst vulnerable elderly folks regarding the vaccine news today. What a great day for humanity. Thank God for our wonderful hard working scientists who have worked so hard on this breakthrough ! More than 90% effective !! https://www.cnbc.com/2020/11/09/covid-vaccine-pfizer-drug-is-more-than-90percent-effective-in-preventing-infection.html

[bull....]

Yes that's true but in relation to the question Cylical asked about whether his sale would be taxed according to the avg buy cost of his whole holding if he bought a specified trading parcel now, the answer is no it wouldn't, I'm taking it that the rest of his holding is a long term hold.

NZ’s IRD may require you to use a specific sale allocation method in your situation (often FIFO), consult your accountant for information specific to your situation

https://www.sharesight.com/blog/calculating-taxable-gains-on-share-trading-in-new-zealand/#:~:text=Per%20Section%2065%20of%20the,make%20a%20 profit%20from%20shares

[couta1]

There's a separate thread about tax here https://www.sharetrader.co.nz/showthread.php?8852-tax/page2&highlight=tax

Can we please get back to OCA ?
I would imagine there's huge relief amongst vulnerable elderly folks regarding the vaccine news today. What a great day for humanity. Thank God for our wonderful hard working scientists who have worked so hard on this breakthrough ! More than 90% effective !! https://www.cnbc.com/2020/11/09/covid-vaccine-pfizer-drug-is-more-than-90percent-effective-in-preventing-infection.html Yes of course your right Beagle, Cyclical pm me and provide a landline # if you want to discuss in depth.

[Snow Leopard]

...Can we please get back to OCA ?...

Annoying when a thread gets hijacked isn't it.

What I suggest is that if Cyclical must play russian roulette that he does so with a stock that:
A/ has a better short-term upside that OCA;
B/ he does not currently own any of, giving tax certainity.

[Cyclical]

Yes of course your right Beagle, Cyclical pm me and provide a landline # if you want to discuss in depth.

Thanks Couta, much appreciated, yours are exactly the type of useful responses I was looking for. I'll be in touch and refrain from further off topic comment in this thread...wouldn't want to upset the resident "accountant" any further for polluting his beloved thread :D

[bottomfeeder]

Its simple bull, if its an identified individual parcel, then you can use LIFO otherwise if your buying and selling continuously the same stock you have to use the avg cost price.

I use LIFO to value my closing stock. Although I haven't done it yet, I would also use lower of LIFO cost and market value. In a rising market it would be preferable to use FIFO, but as I don't like to chase a stock when the price is rising, FIFO is not as lucrative. But I am not so sure about changing between the various methods, you could become unstuck. But have to get caught. Like it was said in the end it doesn't matter.

[Cyclical]

What I suggest is that if Cyclical must play russian roulette...

I just had to check for a sec there that I was on the sharetrader forum and not pussiesrus.something.

Guys, I'm off to Hamilton this week...worth doing a walk by of the village that's getting a makeover?

[Maverick]

Guys, I'm off to Hamilton this week...worth doing a walk by of the village that's getting a makeover?

If your interested in OCA then why wouldn`t you? While your there make time to check out SUM`s new Rototuna and RYM`s new Linda Jones. Having a look at all three will give a good representation of different styles between the operators.

If you are tech savvy enough is there any chance of a photo? It was just foundation work for the apartments there 4 months ago.

I've never understood why people would visit the Hamilton gardens when there are just so many retirement villages to tour.

[BlackPeter]

Agreed in principal, BP, but I'm not sure you understand my calculations...

Buy @ 136
Sell @ 163
Margin = 27c or 20%

Unfortunately it's not going to be 33% tax on the 27c (9c) because my average buy for OCA over the year is about 80c, so in the eyes of the IRD...

Sale of new parcel @ 163
Average buy = 80
Realised gain = 83
Tax @ 33% = 27c

That's a pretty tough result. Breaking even and that's before you consider brokerage and the risk that it may not see a 20% gain. Surely the system, if it is indeed strictly FIFO, is flawed and that LIFO would be a much fairer accounting method in this instance? Grey AF I suspect, unless it's well documented somewhere...?

You might want to consider to change your tax accountant ... or if you don't have any, hire one :):

[couta1]

You might want to consider to change your tax accountant ... or if you don't have any, hire one :): Just do it yourself, study up and listen to people who know what they are talking about, people that haven't used an accountant for yonks and get things right.PS-Havent used an accountant in over 20 yrs and see no reason to use one going forward, no disrespect to Beagle of course who im sure does a top job for his clients.:cool:

[BlackPeter]

Just do it yourself, study up and listen to people who know what they are talking about, people that haven't used an accountant for yonks and get things right.PS-Havent used an accountant in over 20 yrs and see no reason to use one going forward, no disrespect to Beagle of course who im sure does a top job for his clients.:cool:


I agree ... so do I.

However depending on the individuals situation and inclination to study tax law, this can be a little bit like driving a car without seatbelt. Most times it is fine, but if not ... the mess can be big ...

[couta1]

I agree ... so do I.

However depending on the individuals situation and inclination to study tax law, this can be a little bit like driving a car without seatbelt. Most times it is fine, but if not ... the mess can be big ... For sure, you have to put the time in and be confident that your methods are correct or at least more likely to be correct, but for sharetrading it ain't exactly rocket science, always remember the tried and true KISS principle.

[Beagle]

I consult with this firm for anything really difficult. https://www.nsatax.co.nz/ I hope people understand I can't put myself in a position of giving tax advice on here without the full knowledge of all relevant details including a full analysis of investing activity in recent years.
Can we get back to OCA finally ?

[couta1]

I consult with this firm for anything really difficult. https://www.nsatax.co.nz/
Can we get back to OCA finally ? Must be really boring this OCA when everyone keeps drifting off track.PS-RYM has always been known to be really boring and look how that turned out.:cool:

[Beagle]

RYM has always been known to be really boring and look how that turned out.:cool:

A truly fascinating case study in the power of compounding annual tax free growth, one that all students of value creation should take careful note of.

RYM listed in 1999 at about the same price OCA is today and 21 years later after a stock split 5:1 = over $15 today.
By my calculations original investors have made 57 times their original investment in capital gain plus all dividends along the way.

SUM listed about this time of year in 2011 also at about the same price OCA is today and they're now worth 8.3 times the original float price just 9 years later plus all dividends.

Nothing like the above could ever happen again, surely not ?...or could it ;)

[Cyclical]

You might want to consider to change your tax accountant ... or if you don't have any, hire one :):

If I can do it myself, I'd rather invest my funds into shares. Although my last year or two of self employment in the UK I did hire an accountant. He was pretty cheap and absolutely more than paid for himself. He had with him a book titled something along the lines of "Legal Tax Evasion". I suspect there were a whole lot more hand outs, concessions, loop holes and write offs etc over there that could be exploited with the appropriate knowhow...


Just do it yourself, study up and listen to people who know what they are talking about, people that haven't used an accountant for yonks and get things right.PS-Havent used an accountant in over 20 yrs and see no reason to use one going forward, no disrespect to Beagle of course who im sure does a top job for his clients.:cool:


I agree ... so do I.

However depending on the individuals situation and inclination to study tax law, this can be a little bit like driving a car without seatbelt. Most times it is fine, but if not ... the mess can be big ...


For sure, you have to put the time in and be confident that your methods are correct or at least more likely to be correct, but for sharetrading it ain't exactly rocket science, always remember the tried and true KISS principle.

Yep, happy to learn the ropes, I'm a numbers guy and do find this stuff interesting, plus used to do my own accounting in my self employed days (pre UK).


I consult with this firm for anything really difficult. https://www.nsatax.co.nz/ I hope people understand I can't put myself in a position of giving tax advice on here without the full knowledge of all relevant details including a full analysis of investing activity in recent years.

Thanks for the clarification, Beagle, I had wondered, as you are usually pretty mum on the subject and quick to try steer conversation in a different direction (back on track as it were). Cheers for the link too.


Can we get back to OCA finally ?

Roger, Roger.

Thanks all for some great discussion and sorry once again for high jacking the thread.

An update on Awatere is coming...

[Cyclical]

If your interested in OCA then why wouldn`t you? While your there make time to check out SUM`s new Rototuna and RYM`s new Linda Jones. Having a look at all three will give a good representation of different styles between the operators.

If you are tech savvy enough is there any chance of a photo? It was just foundation work for the apartments there 4 months ago.

I've never understood why people would visit the Hamilton gardens when there are just so many retirement villages to tour.

Just arrived here this evening, meetings all day tomorrow before heading back to the Naki, so thought I'd better do as instructed... It was wet and dismal and starting to get dark, so apologies for the average pics.

The first thing that stuck me was how big the site is. From what I could see, and from yacking to one of the residents, we've currently got an apartment building, opened in 2002, to the left end of the site (looking from the road), and the rather flash and modern looking care suites / hospital building to the right end, which said resident was raving about. She told me to come back for the full tour...that will have to be another time unfortunately...

Between those two existing buildings and set back further from the road is the new block that I guess you were saying was just foundations 4 months ago, Maverick? It's now 2 stories high and she tells me this will be 5 stores when done, which I'd expect will give pretty awesome views up and down the river, which is out the back.

12079

12080

Then out the back of the existing apartment building, left of site, they've laid the foundations for another apartment building which she tells me will be 2 stories plus a carpark underneath. I don't know that this will see the river, unless there is some serious pruning/culling of trees out the back, or maybe it will, hard to tell. This pic shows the foundations for the 2 story, with the back of the existing apartment block on the right and another angle of the growing 5 story in the background.

12081

Here's a shot of the care suites complex.

12082

Back in my landscaping days, I used to have a monopoly on the lovely big old houses back towards the Fairfield bridge, so I know the area pretty well and it's certainly in the upper end as far as Hamilton goes. Seems to me like a great place for OCA to be doing this development and the visit gave me some appreciation as to why they've gone down the demo/rebuild path as opposed to the greenfields out on the edge of town approach. Was great to meet one of the residents that had been there for a few years and to hear her enthusiasm for what was going on. I somewhat doubt this particular site has reached the "inflection point" but when it does, it'll be a cracker.

[Maverick]

I somewhat doubt this particular site has reached the "inflection point" but when it does.
Great job Cyclical! Definitely a reputation comment for you.
I can't access the photos but your descriptive story is plenty to go by.
They are building 63 apartments and a community center so I suspect the smaller car park building will be that (but I'm not sure,it wasn't there 3 months ago).


As far as inflection goes , that site is a good example of it being reached. They bulldozed 106 care beds and now have 90 fully operational care suits instead. It will now be mostly full of full fare clients (rather than the existing guys “grandfathered in” from the demolished beds) .
So you can bet your wad of free cash that the site will be making more money now than before the project commenced. That sizeable area of dirt they have unlocked and are building on is not costing them anything.
It's when the 63 apartments get sold that the super profit rolls in. They also have another potential 74 apartments unlocked and available to build after this lot.


I find it exciting and satisfying to do a site visit like that when you see how your money is being spent and to get an understanding of the massive planning and engineering involved. People who will only buy domestic rentals (and not shares)because they can “touch it” would improve their perception of share investing to see a site like this.


Thanks again for taking the time to post Cyclical, Ill bet you are a little tempted to run that “trade” now?

[Beagle]

Thanks Cyclical. I can't access the attachments either but your narrative gives a good insight into the unique attributes of this brownfield development.
In this red hot property market I really like how OCA are making maximum use of existing sites which will pay huge dividends down the track and its clear that some of the long established sites have unique attributes than a greenfield site wouldn't enjoy.

[peat]

I find it exciting and satisfying to do a site visit like that when you see how your money is being spent and to get an understanding of the massive planning and engineering involved. People who will only buy domestic rentals (and not shares)because they can “touch it” would improve their perception of share investing to see a site like this.



Hear hear! So true regarding NZ investing mentality

Shame about the pictures not showing Cyclical. Have another go when you've got more time eh?

[Beagle]

If anyone is in St Heliers have a look at the Waimarie site. You can't get on there with it all being fenced off and earthworks underway but just have a look at the view from the street. What a stunning location with breathtaking views ! Might wander over and have a look at the Sands at some stage soon.

Hey Mav, what are your thoughts on the Sands ?

[Maverick]

Hey Mav, what are your thoughts on the Sands ?

Not too sure what aspect you mean Beagle.

[Beagle]

Not too sure what aspect you mean Beagle.

From memory, you've done a site visit ? Any general thoughts on location, quality of construction, landscaping e.t.c., you'd care to share ? impressive ?

[Maverick]

From memory, you've done a site visit ? Any general thoughts on location, quality of construction, landscaping e.t.c., you'd care to share ? impressive ?
I don't think my opinion matters but the fact they only had 9 left for sale a few months ago tells the story well enough.....would I actually buy one my self....HELL YEAH. ( especially being 100mtrs from Deep Creek Brewery.)

[Beagle]

I don't think my opinion matters but the fact they only had 9 left for sale a few months ago tells the story well enough.....would I actually buy one my self....HELL YEAH. ( especially being 100mtrs from Mystery Creek Brewery.

DIC of a motorized scooter anyone :D

[dompf]

If anyone is in St Heliers have a look at the Waimarie site. You can't get on there with it all being fenced off and earthworks underway but just have a look at the view from the street. What a stunning location with breathtaking views ! Might wander over and have a look at the Sands at some stage soon.

Hey Mav, what are your thoughts on the Sands ?


Hey I live close to the Sands; I see it once every fortnight when I go to Browns Bay; it is a jewel of a location - close to all the eateries in flat Browns Bay; it looks extremely well maintained. It is a very impressive property right on the Beach. It made me invest in OCA 6ms ago when I drove past it.. I'll take a closer look next time in down there.

There's quite a bit of construction going on in Browns Bay with an apartment complex being built where the old supermarket once stood (be interesting to see what they are going for $). It is a very good spot in both NZ and the world to put your feet up.

[Posh]

The views are stunning! My Grandparents’ house was 28 Waimarie St (right at the front of the current site) and I can remember vividly watching fireworks from there as a young girl - felt like the view went on forever! And that was only a two storey house. Thought it was a good reason to reinvest in OCA :)

[King1212]

LVR will be reinstated early next year

[Beagle]

The views are stunning! My Grandparents’ house was 28 Waimarie St (right at the front of the current site) and I can remember vividly watching fireworks from there as a young girl - felt like the view went on forever! And that was only a two storey house. Thought it was a good reason to reinvest in OCA :)

Welcome to the forum and thanks for your feedback. We did a lot of our boating just out there. Our favorite trip was just to hop around to the north side of Motuihe Island in the summer and relax in the sun...just a short trip from Westhaven Marina but it always felt like we were a million miles from the stress of the city. It will be truly fabulous to have an apartment with such a stunning outlook when the time is right for us. https://www.motuihe.org.nz/

[nizzy]

The views are stunning! My Grandparents’ house was 28 Waimarie St (right at the front of the current site) and I can remember vividly watching fireworks from there as a young girl - felt like the view went on forever! And that was only a two storey house. Thought it was a good reason to reinvest in OCA :)
agree Posh. Grew up in Bay Road close to Waimarie, and it was always known for the stunner views across the harbour and city. But the steep descent down to the Bay will test the mobility scooters. .Aarhh, St Heliers, after school wandering down to the Bay for swims, and hanging out. More crowded today but still beautiful. OCA onto another winner with this site. Disc: hold a solid parcel

[APH1]

Jumped on board today, have been watching this one rise for a while now but didn't have the spare capital, good to be in now, I was hoping it would stay down longer but never mind, as mentioned earlier in this thread .10c here or there won't matter in the long run.

[APH1]

I appreciate all the time spent anylising this stock by the likes of Beagle and Maverick and others here it helps reassure ones desision.

[Cyclical]

Take two with the images in this post. Seems I had to reduce the size further...tested in two browsers, hopefully all good now, sorry about that.


Just arrived here this evening, meetings all day tomorrow before heading back to the Naki, so thought I'd better do as instructed... It was wet and dismal and starting to get dark, so apologies for the average pics.

The first thing that stuck me was how big the site is. From what I could see, and from yacking to one of the residents, we've currently got an apartment building, opened in 2002, to the left end of the site (looking from the road), and the rather flash and modern looking care suites / hospital building to the right end, which said resident was raving about. She told me to come back for the full tour...that will have to be another time unfortunately...

Between those two existing buildings and set back further from the road is the new block that I guess you were saying was just foundations 4 months ago, Maverick? It's now 2 stories high and she tells me this will be 5 stores when done, which I'd expect will give pretty awesome views up and down the river, which is out the back.

12079

12080

Then out the back of the existing apartment building, left of site, they've laid the foundations for another apartment building which she tells me will be 2 stories plus a carpark underneath. I don't know that this will see the river, unless there is some serious pruning/culling of trees out the back, or maybe it will, hard to tell. This pic shows the foundations for the 2 story, with the back of the existing apartment block on the right and another angle of the growing 5 story in the background.

12081

Here's a shot of the care suites complex.

12082

Back in my landscaping days, I used to have a monopoly on the lovely big old houses back towards the Fairfield bridge, so I know the area pretty well and it's certainly in the upper end as far as Hamilton goes. Seems to me like a great place for OCA to be doing this development and the visit gave me some appreciation as to why they've gone down the demo/rebuild path as opposed to the greenfields out on the edge of town approach. Was great to meet one of the residents that had been there for a few years and to hear her enthusiasm for what was going on. I somewhat doubt this particular site has reached the "inflection point" but when it does, it'll be a cracker.

[Cyclical]

.....would I actually buy one my self....HELL YEAH. ( especially being 100mtrs from Deep Creek Brewery.)

Good spot that Deep Creek...I think I mentioned a while back we had a meal and drink with some friends there and it wasn't until we were leaving that I realised what we'd parked directly outside of...The Sands...impressive looking complex indeed and a real jewel in the crown.

[Beagle]

Jumped on board today, have been watching this one rise for a while now but didn't have the spare capital, good to be in now, I was hoping it would stay down longer but never mind, as mentioned earlier in this thread .10c here or there won't matter in the long run.

Welcome on board and welcome to the forum.

Thanks Cyclical. Great to see the work in progress and the care suites look awesome !

[winner69]

OMG the worlds out of control

Hope Oceania et al reprice their units

prices rise nearly 20% in a year to median $725K

https://www.reinz.co.nz/Media/Default/Statistic%20Documents/2020/October/REINZ%20Residential%20Press%20Release%20-%20October%202020.pdf

[Beagle]

OMG the worlds out of control

Hope Oceania et al reprice their units

prices rise nearly 20% in a year to median $725K

https://www.reinz.co.nz/Media/Default/Statistic%20Documents/2020/October/REINZ%20Residential%20Press%20Release%20-%20October%202020.pdf

WOW - Might email Earl and suggest exactly that. Got to create heaps of value for shareholders so shareholders can choose to be altruistic towards causes they choose and not have companies making decisions outside their mandate on their behalf.

[Snow Leopard]

WOW - Might email Earl and suggest exactly that. Got to create heaps of value for shareholders so shareholders can choose to be altruistic towards causes they choose and not have companies making decisions outside their mandate on their behalf.

Follow your own 'advice' to others and take it to a seperate thread.

[bull....]

i decided to sell again , no momentum to the price it seems

[Alpha]

what did you sell at?

[bull....]

what did you sell at?

various prices during the day , resistance is 1.40 been to much selling just below it last few days causing the momo to decline. ( i was only in it for the momo trade unlike other posters i think the fundamentals are average at best and have always maintained that. ( ohno wait for the rampers to clobber me lol)

[Alpha]

We are expecting to see some great results and are expecting analyst to upgrade their price points so seems you may be buying back in at a higher price? Where have you moved your funds? You seem to move alot.

[Greekwatchdog]

Who cares what he does, he's only a player. Just sit back and enjoy the motion..

[bull....]

We are expecting to see some great results and are expecting analyst to upgrade their price points so seems you may be buying back in at a higher price? Where have you moved your funds? You seem to move alot.

just weeding out the non-performers for some cash. us markets havnt had a down day for a while so when they do might be some opp's

[Alpha]

I like to hear everyone's views even the ones I don't necessarily agree with. It is pretty obvious that they are a trader. I am just curious to know where they have now gone. Unlike bull I will be holding long and am looking forward to 10years from now when OCA is up around $10plus.

I grew up in Brownsbay and have seen the development over the years. I think the recently upgraded Sands now has to be the best in BB. Parents are getting closer to needing care and I will be likely using Oceania

[Beagle]

OMG the worlds out of control

Hope Oceania et al reprice their units

prices rise nearly 20% in a year to median $725K

https://www.reinz.co.nz/Media/Default/Statistic%20Documents/2020/October/REINZ%20Residential%20Press%20Release%20-%20October%202020.pdf

I've been thinking about the implications of the extraordinary strength of the real estate market for the future profitability of OCA not just for development margins in the next few years but also resale profits. This is starting to look too compelling a long term story not to have a VERY fulsome allocation so I brought some more today with a long term view. I am very bullish and hope I bought Bull's shares off him. Its often been said that the market is a mechanism that transfers value from the impatient to the patient and I am very confident that's exactly what will happen here. I have signed up to the shares in lieu of dividend program and feel extremely well positioned for the decade ahead.

[bull....]

I like to hear everyone's views even the ones I don't necessarily agree with. It is pretty obvious that they are a trader. I am just curious to know where they have now gone. Unlike bull I will be holding long and am looking forward to 10years from now when OCA is up around $10plus.

I grew up in Brownsbay and have seen the development over the years. I think the recently upgraded Sands now has to be the best in BB. Parents are getting closer to needing care and I will be likely using Oceania

i might buy back when the momo comes back

[Beagle]

i might buy back when the momo comes back

You won't be buying mine back I just nicked off you for dirt cheap money :p

[Beagle]

Follow your own 'advice' to others and take it to a seperate thread.

By your command "oh mighty" Snow Puss :p https://www.sharetrader.co.nz/showthread.php?11929-Should-companies-who-were-perfectly-entitled-to-claim-the-wage-subsidy-pay-it-back&p=856336#post856336

[Snow Leopard]

i might buy back when the momo comes back

You can make your own: Nepali Momo (https://www.food.com/recipe/nepali-momo-nepalese-meat-dumplings-86666)

https://img.sndimg.com/food/image/upload/c_thumb,q_80,w_562,h_316/v1/img/recipes/86/66/6/pic6EgRr7.jpg

[bull....]

You can make your own: Nepali Momo (https://www.food.com/recipe/nepali-momo-nepalese-meat-dumplings-86666)

https://img.sndimg.com/food/image/upload/c_thumb,q_80,w_562,h_316/v1/img/recipes/86/66/6/pic6EgRr7.jpg

looks good can i uber it to my place

[BlackPeter]

i might buy back when the momo comes back

When Momo comes back?

12088

Seems like you are a fan of goosebumps .... or did you really mean Fomo?

[Beagle]

When Momo comes back?

12088

Seems like you are a fan of goosebumps .... or did you really mean Fomo?

LOL Post of the day !!

[Beagle]

You can make your own: Nepali Momo (https://www.food.com/recipe/nepali-momo-nepalese-meat-dumplings-86666)

https://img.sndimg.com/food/image/upload/c_thumb,q_80,w_562,h_316/v1/img/recipes/86/66/6/pic6EgRr7.jpg

Okay you've piqued my interest. https://www.nzherald.co.nz/nz/dumplings-to-star-at-first-ever-dumplings-on-dominion-festival/3SBAJ5PE5F73GBOAKTARTAS7LM/ Might wrap my paws around a few on Sunday.

[dreamcatcher]

You can make your own: Nepali Momo (https://www.food.com/recipe/nepali-momo-nepalese-meat-dumplings-86666)

https://img.sndimg.com/food/image/upload/c_thumb,q_80,w_562,h_316/v1/img/recipes/86/66/6/pic6EgRr7.jpg

Always considered dumplings like uncooked dough and filling never to my taste but fry it will eat.

Wife loves them.

[peat]

i decided to sell again , no momentum to the price it seems

hello shooting star! ;+)

[bull....]

hello shooting star! ;+)

that shooting star has not been good for OCA

[Greekwatchdog]

Sometimes just sometimes your better to be on the shooting star as the tail is hard to get on

[Waltzing]

wall of money coming....?

[winner69]

My mate Jared Dillian said this today ....seems to relate to stocks like OCA

There is something about charts and data that investors find soothing--if it's backed up by numbers, it must be good.

But few investment decisions are driven by quantitative concerns; they're driven by emotion, feelings, and cognitive bias.

[winner69]

Both ANZ and Westpac economists say double digit growth in house prices to continue through 2021

Wonder what CBRE are doing in their models :)

[HCR20]

My mate Jared Dillian said this today ....seems to relate to stocks like OCA

There is something about charts and data that investors find soothing--if it's backed up by numbers, it must be good.

But few investment decisions are driven by quantitative concerns; they're driven by emotion, feelings, and cognitive bias.


Yep, most people make investing decisions on the basis of emotions and then engage in post-hoc motivated 'logical' reasoning that supports their initial, emotionally based, decision.

[Beagle]

Both ANZ and Westpac economists say double digit growth in house prices to continue through 2021

Wonder what CBRE are doing in their models :)

Saw some survey yesterday in the Herald that reckoned 44% of Kiwi expats in the U.K. want to come home. Where will they all live ? If we can't even meet modest Kiwibuild targets we are undoubtedly facing a massive imbalance in housing demand over supply once they can squeeze in through the bottleneck at the border. No wonder economists are so bullish next year.
Maybe there's a market for allowing 60 somethings to live in OCA apartments seeing almost everyone else has a minimum entry age of 70 years ?

[TideMan]

Both ANZ and Westpac economists say double digit growth in house prices to continue through 2021

:)
But, hang on. Wasn't it the Westpac economists who reckoned the housing market would decline by 7%?
Yet it's increased by 15%.
Who can believe anything they say?

[Baa_Baa]

But, hang on. Wasn't it the Westpac economists who reckoned the housing market would decline by 7%?
Yet it's increased by 15%.
Who can believe anything they say?

Oldy but a goody, Why did God create economists? To make weather forecasters look good.

[Cyclical]

But, hang on. Wasn't it the Westpac economists who reckoned the housing market would decline by 7%?
Yet it's increased by 15%.
Who can believe anything they say?

I don’t think any of them got it right. Which is why the next result is going to smash it out of the park :-)

[fluziosaurus]

I don’t think any of them got it right. Which is why the next result is going to smash it out of the park :-)

First post on the oca thread, and recently brought in so go easy on me.

Will the oca sale prices be adjusted as rapidly as the house prices are changing or is that a slow and steady lagging growth? Just thinking about the housing market growth has an impact on the earnings come January.

[Gunner]

First post on the oca thread, and recently brought in so go easy on me.

Will the oca sale prices be adjusted as rapidly as the house prices are changing or is that a slow and steady lagging growth? Just thinking about the housing market growth has an impact on the earnings come January.

I think the results released in January will surpass the markets expectation due to the insane housing market, pent up demand from the shutdown and improving results from the developed sites starting to bear fruit. Oca has been relatively under the radar but I think January could be a real firecracker.

[winner69]

I think the results released in January will surpass the markets expectation due to the insane housing market, pent up demand from the shutdown and improving results from the developed sites starting to bear fruit. Oca has been relatively under the radar but I think January could be a real firecracker.

Surpassing market expectations is one thing (expectations not that great anyway) BUT WILL THEY SURPASS BEAGLES / MAV EXPECTATIONS?

[Baa_Baa]

First post on the oca thread, and recently brought in so go easy on me.

Will the oca sale prices be adjusted as rapidly as the house prices are changing or is that a slow and steady lagging growth? Just thinking about the housing market growth has an impact on the earnings come January.

It has an impact downwards, like recently when some muppets devalued OCA estate capital value, so it stands to reason the opposite happens when they realise the muppets were wrong and the cap value needs to reset not just to previous, but to current market. Boom badda boom!!!

[mike2020]

Has anyone recently priced an OCA unit of any type and is able to compare it to 6 months ago to say if they have moved with the market?

[Dlownz]

Last I looked on lockdoem or around abouts they were 440000 in hasting new ones. Then the shot up to 540000 in a short space of time. That was the last I looked

[BlackPeter]

But, hang on. Wasn't it the Westpac economists who reckoned the housing market would decline by 7%?
Yet it's increased by 15%.
Who can believe anything they say?

They are economists. Like politicians, priests, stock market analysts or anybody else do they have no clue what's around the next concealed corner, so you as well might believe their predictions and forecasts same as you believe anybody else's forecasts.

[winner69]

Last I looked on lockdoem or around abouts they were 440000 in hasting new ones. Then the shot up to 540000 in a short space of time. That was the last I looked

Jeez - what a gold mine if most of OCA units have gone up 20%

The increase flows through to profit when sold doesn’t it ...extra to planned profit too

[Curly]

No sign of the “wall of money”. Needing some positive press to drive to next target price. $1.50 - $1.60?

[baaantom]

No sign of the “wall of money”. Needing some positive press to drive to next target price. $1.50 - $1.60?

Ryman's half-year results are out tomorrow so that may do the trick.

[winner69]

No sign of the “wall of money”. Needing some positive press to drive to next target price. $1.50 - $1.60?

The much touted ‘wall of money’ came and went a while ago .....driving the price up to the 130’s

[Beagle]

The much touted ‘wall of money’ came and went a while ago .....driving the price up to the 130’s

Perhaps and yes we must acknowledge a nice ~ 20 cent lift since September. NAV was last reported at the May 2020 balance date at $1.10. With CBRE being so dramatically wrong with their valuations and the real estate on fire up ~ 20%, perhaps current net asset value is not much shy of the current share price ?

With nothing to be earned on fixed interest or bonds there really in no alternative to shares and very few are on such compelling metrics as OCA.

[Jantar]

…. NAV was last reported at the May 2020 balance date at $1.10. With CBRE being so dramatically wrong with their valuations and the real estate on fire up ~ 20%, perhaps current net asset value is not much shy of the current share price ? .... More units have been completed since May and at a higher value. I suspect the NAV is now higher than the SP.

[Beagle]

More units have been completed since May and at a higher value. I suspect the NAV is now higher than the SP.

Could be mate. A quick look at the TA looks solid to me too. In a nice uptrend, above 30 and 100 day moving averages. RSI looks to be just over 50 so its not overbought in the mid 130's and has consolidated very nicely at this level. Bollinger bands getting squeezed together. Looks nicely set to extend the recent rally in due course. Property is a long term investment and this one looks very well positioned to give outstanding returns over both the short and the long haul.

[Baa_Baa]

Could be mate. A quick look at the TA looks solid to me too. In a nice uptrend, above 30 and 100 day moving averages. RSI looks to be just over 50 so its not overbought in the mid 130's and has consolidated very nicely at this level. Bollinger bands getting squeezed together. Looks nicely set to extend the recent rally in due course. Property is a long term investment and this one looks very well positioned to give outstanding returns over both the short and the long haul.

For a bona-fide FA your TA has come a long way, well done. The two disciplines combined are essential investor tools, one says “is this a good investment”, while the other says “it’s this a good time to invest, or not”.

I have another truck coming in early December so I hope it doesn’t bolt too much before I can back it up and complete my planned fill. Might even shout myself a few bonus shares if the price is still right.

[Alpha]

https://www.oceaniahealthcare.co.nz/investor-centre

When did they update there website? It looks really flash

[peat]

For a bona-fide FA your TA has come a long way, well done. The two disciplines combined are essential investor tools, one says “is this a good investment”, while the other says “it’s this a good time to invest, or not”.

You're being too kind , he is just a baby.

[Waltzing]

old time chart drawers like O'Neil would say that lines on the paper for this shop depict a much higher high..the longer, wider the base the higher the building...

[Beagle]

You're being too kind , he is just a baby.

Just as well I take a super dogged approach with fundamental analysis then eh.


old time chart drawers like O'Neil would say that lines on the paper for this shop depict a much higher high..the longer, wider the base the higher the building...
Nicely said.

[Curly]

Mkt not liking Ryman result.

[bull....]

i decided to sell again , no momentum to the price it seems

momentum has stalled alright looks like it has just broken good support at 1.35

[Beagle]

I think some small investors could have read the RYM report and got a bit worried. It should be noted that RYM's report this morning includes the crucial period of lockdown and its worst effects of it in April and May as well obviously June to September.

April and May 2020 and its effects are behind OCA because they last reported for the year ended 31 May 2020 which included those awful months where they ostensibly made no money.

Further RYM is heavily exposed to Melbourne which has obviously caused them serious problems for the last 6 months.

Finally RYM quote a figure of $50m for Covid preparation costs. Their market capitalization is nine times OCA and they have endured issues throughout the last 6 months in Melbourne.

From memory OCA incurred about $6m in direct Covid costs already reported in the last financial year covering the crucial period of March, April and May 2020.

[Mudfish]

Cheers Beagle, totally makes sense. ARV result next week should help with the bigger picture also. Their result will include lock-down period also but remove the Aussie factor.

[winner69]

The table of assumptions CBRE are using re property prices in Ryman report is interesting

In March they said Akl prices down 1.5% in Yr1

At September assumption is +0.1%

[winner69]

Ryman not paying back wage subsidy lets OCA off the hook without the nee to debate

About Ryman

Chairman David Kerr said the board had “quite a lengthy discussion” about whether to pay a dividend after taking the wage subsidy.

The wage subsidy scheme was “a great initiative” by the Government, that meant Ryman could continue to employ all its staff, and take on new staff, he said.

Ryman’s board believed that because the company had spent about three times the wage subsidy on Covid-19 measures, it “balanced out” and was appropriate to pay a dividend, he said.

“The board decided that was the right call to make,” Kerr said.

[wagwan]

I think some small investors could have read the RYM report and got a bit worried. It should be noted that RYM's report this morning includes the crucial period of lockdown and its worst effects of it in April and May as well obviously June to September.

April and May 2020 and its effects are behind OCA because they last reported for the year ended 31 May 2020 which included those awful months where they ostensibly made no money.

Further RYM is heavily exposed to Melbourne which has obviously caused them serious problems for the last 6 months.

Finally RYM quote a figure of $50m for Covid preparation costs. Their market capitalization is nine times OCA and they have endured issues throughout the last 6 months in Melbourne.

From memory OCA incurred about $6m in direct Covid costs already reported in the last financial year covering the crucial period of March, April and May 2020.


Completely agree. RYM FY21 reporting includes full impact of COVID, while OCA's won't as captured in May '20 reporting.

Given RYM result includes full COVID impact, and exposure to Melbourne, the result is encouraging for the entire sector - especially those (ie: OCA) reporting in a post-lockdown scenario.

Big upside on the cards for OCA in H1 FY21 reporting in Jan... although vaccine news worth keeping an eye on between now and then, as RBNZ can't get much more bullish. In last ~1 month, wholesale interest rate markets have moved from pricing in May 2021 OCR at -15 to -20bpts to now +2btps.

If vaccine comes sooner than expected, economic recovery accelerates, job losses, business failures etc don't eventuate suddenly RBNZ needs to consider where they go with wholesale rates. Even a small uplift in cost of wholesale funding, earlier than expected, could have a big impact on housing market, and by extension retirement sector.

That said, with household, corporate and govt debt ballooning, surely they can't dial back up too fast.

Strange times

[Beagle]

I need to have a word to Earl about presenting a brighter image in their annual report and marketing material. Must have more happy looking couples and their dogs. Only one dog in the FY20 annual report and he was a sad looking guide dog for a very old lady on her own. Three biggest fears I reckon for people moving into a retirement village are, am I going to be lonely or feel like an abandoned and lonely old person ?, (promote the camaraderie of the village and that you can bring your pet), am I going to be looked after ? (promote the care standard) and can I afford to live there ?, (heavily promote the fixed fees for life).

You want to be happy and have lots of friends in a retirement village ?, bring a dog with you when you move in. U.K. research shows people are 41 times more likely to stop and talk to you while out walking if you have a dog with you. They're a real ice breaker I tell ya ! Now there's an idea, I could call my next dog Ice Breaker, that's a real conversation starter right there lol

Hands up who would like me to try and get Earl to host an investor day next year with a site visit to the Sands ? Get some analysts and institutional investors along too.

[Bjauck]

...
You want to be happy and have lots of friends in a retirement village ?, bring a dog with you when you move in. U.K. research shows people are 41 times more likely to stop and talk to you while out walking if you have a dog with you. They're a real ice breaker I tell ya ! Now there's an idea, I could call my next dog Ice Breaker, that's a real conversation starter right there lol

Hands up who would like me to try and get Earl to host an investor day next year with a site visit to the Sands ? Get some analysts and institutional investors along too. This is a great Friday afternoon post! I am surprised about the dog research. If I see a dog and owner I just pick up my pace and wonder if the dog will make a bee-line for my crotch. This could either be to sniff it or in the case of a pit bull or Staffordshire etc to bite it!

However an old lady and her friendly schnauzer may get a different reaction.

[Beagle]

Unsurprisingly people with small cute non threatening dogs get talked to a lot more than those with aggressive looking Alsatians !

Shares are looking a bit abandoned today. My Mum is on her last legs with her cancer and soon I will be an abandoned baby, hope the shares aren't.

[Waltzing]

well Bull will make killing... the price will rebuild but probably from a base around 1.20 ... ARV did not get sold off. Not sure its related to RYM more like there are more people trading this stock then it first appears..

thoughts are with MR B.

[YoungBull]

Unsurprisingly people with small cute non threatening dogs get talked to a lot more than those with aggressive looking Alsatians !

Shares are looking a bit abandoned today. My Mum is on her last legs with her cancer and soon I will be an abandoned baby, hope the shares aren't.

Really sorry to hear this Beagle, hope you’re dealing well and sharing some special moments. Appreciate all your insights.

[RTM]

momentum has stalled alright looks like it has just broken good support at 1.35

https://www.nzherald.co.nz/lifestyle/sex-in-rest-home-research-prompts-call-to-re-think-elderly-needs-desires-and-rights/T66UTY4EZRKRF7KKYPQMPJOYAQ/

Maybe they need a new marketing angle......

[Snow Leopard]

Could be mate. A quick look at the TA looks solid to me too. In a nice uptrend, above 30 and 100 day moving averages. RSI looks to be just over 50 so its not overbought in the mid 130's and has consolidated very nicely at this level. Bollinger bands getting squeezed together. Looks nicely set to extend the recent rally in due course. Property is a long term investment and this one looks very well positioned to give outstanding returns over both the short and the long haul.

You really put the jinx on there :t_down:

[Baa_Baa]

You really put the jinx on there :t_down:

Not really, as you know no single post on an internet discussion group moves a market. Coincidence that RYM posted results today that on paper looked ok but behind it raised the ugly spectre of troubles getting traction in the expansion market (aus) but worse trying to justify dividends after taking the covid subsidy. So the sector gets hit as punishment.

It would be nice if you two buried the hatchet. Preferably not in each other’s heads.

[Snow Leopard]

Not really, as you know no single post on an internet discussion group moves a market. Coincidence that RYM posted results today that on paper looked ok but behind it raised the ugly spectre of troubles getting traction in the expansion market (aus) but worse trying to justify dividends after taking the covid subsidy. So the sector gets hit as punishment.

It would be nice if you two buried the hatchet. Preferably not in each other’s heads.

You really lack any sense of humour :p

[Cyclical]

Not really, as you know no single post on an internet discussion group moves a market. Coincidence that RYM posted results today that on paper looked ok but behind it raised the ugly spectre of troubles getting traction in the expansion market (aus) but worse trying to justify dividends after taking the covid subsidy. So the sector gets hit as punishment.

It would be nice if you two buried the hatchet. Preferably not in each other’s heads.

Think you have gotten the wrong end of the stick there BaaBaa.

I missed this price action today unfortunately, but if it's still at this level on Monday, it's top up time.

Beagle, sorry about your Mum :-(

[Beagle]

Thanks guys. Thankfully its not quite the last bit of the beginning of the end I feared. Her fall was not as bad as my sister in law made it out to be, no major injury or broken bones...could have been a lot worse....just had a good chat with her this evening and she seemed in good spirits... but its definitely a case of tick tock goes the clock...specialists gave her 5-8 months to live with terminal liver cancer but that was 4 1/2 months ago :( All we can do is make the most of enjoying what time is left. 91 is a pretty good innings and I have always known I am a loved. No pain yet so that's awesome and an answer to prayer !

Anyway...back to OCA. Caught in the RYM wake and some people seem to have read the headlines and thrown their toys out of the cot. I am happy to take a "dogged" approach.

Grudges and hatchets I carry not...too heavy to cart around. People sometimes say things in the heat of the moment that comes out too aggressive...of course I never do that lol
Forgiveness is the gift you give yourself.

[Waltzing]

ARV was rock solid, OCA sold off on RYM? can someone with industry inside information link the two because its either panic selling or a rotation into other stocks by traders of the stock which must be more in number than one would expect for a defensive stock.

[mike2020]

I have a theory which is just an idea I have been mulling over. With the number of shares on issue and the daily turnover it would take a couple of months to accumulate a position close to 5%. Appears very easy to sell into a bad day and then start buying again from what I have seen. That said yesterdays volume was a little higher. Could also explain the rapid rise we had over a couple of weeks.

Not really an answer to your question though.

[Waltzing]

well 20/20 Bull must have a very big position to drive the market down on his selling. We may be seeing that the number of traders, shorters is greater then we first thought for this stock..

[Snow Leopard]

I have a theory which is just an idea I have been mulling over....

That is known as an hypothesis.

At $1.30 I rate OCA as under-valued and buyable. But as my second largest NZX holding (behind HGH, also under-valued), I am not buying anymore at present, except in the DRiP

But should the price drop much more I may look for some share change.

Disc: OCA & ARV

[Curly]

I bought another parcel at $1.33 not expecting price to drop to $1.30. The market so often reacts the opposite to what you expect. ARV covid affected result next week will no doubt reflect a similar outcome as Ryman. Will Mr Mkt be similarly unkind to OCA. Time will tell.

[bottomfeeder]

I bought another parcel at $1.33 not expecting price to drop to $1.30. The market so often reacts the opposite to what you expect. ARV covid affected result next week will no doubt reflect a similar outcome as Ryman. Will Mr Mkt be similarly unkind to OCA. Time will tell.

Yep I did the same. If the SP drops any more, I will buy some more, and then I will be well overweight in this stock, so really exposed to any adverse shocks. Well into profit, but hate to see it dissipate.

[Waltzing]

being over weight in anything increases risk...

[bottomfeeder]

being over weight in anything increases risk...

Haha that is certain. But if it goes back up to $1.46 or higher, being overweight is a sign of opulence. I believe that was the case in the 18 century.

[winner69]

The good old management incentive scheme - likes pigs to the trough eh or as they say in management HR consultancy lingo 'align these executives’ interests with the interests of Oceania’s shareholders'. What a load of crap.


As long as OCA aren't complete losers relative to NZX50 they got over one hurdle ....and of course the profit hurdles (target) seem to be missing


For the first performance hurdle, Share Rights will qualify for vesting on a straight-line basis from 0% where the total shareholder return (TSR) from the commencement date to the measurement date is equal to the 35th percentile of the NZX50 Group to 100% where the TSR is equal to or greater than the 75th percentile of the NZX50 Group.

For the second performance hurdle, Share Rights will qualify for vesting if OCA’s annual growth in underlying earnings (before interest, tax, depreciation and amortisation) per share (UEPS) from the commencement date to the measurement date is equal to or greater than the target for growth in UEPS for that period

[winner69]

I have asked them to tell us what the UESP targets are.

Betcha they nowhere near what shareholders Beagle and Mav reckon OCA earnings will be

[bull....]

I have asked them to tell us what the UESP targets are.

Betcha they nowhere near what shareholders Beagle and Mav reckon OCA earnings will be

they will be lower for sure , just look at the share price action.

[Waltzing]

but arnt there outstanding sales and no Covid costs this half? which means earnings should be up?

nothing from MR B because of course its all been said before...Mr M has already detailed the sails deferred till this half report?

[bull....]

grant robinson letter has a bigger effect on oca than other retirement stocks as a larger proportion of oca profits are margins on sale at higher prices. hence why its not so good anymore to levergae the property boom

[wagwan]

grant robinson letter has a bigger effect on oca than other retirement stocks as a larger proportion of oca profits are margins on sale at higher prices. hence why its not so good anymore to levergae the property boom

Letter is a response to public pressure and keeping political capital in place. Will it have any real impact?

Orr's response, translated eloquently in the link below, suggests not. Sounds like RBNZ will move on data, not letters.

https://thespinoff.co.nz/politics/25-11-2020/grant-robertson-v-adrian-orr-those-letters-decoded/

[Zaphod]

Perhaps as well as this.

'Risk of a sharp correction': Reserve Bank's house price warning
https://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/reserve-bank-outlines-major-risks-to-new-zealand-economy/BMCYISHAWTT6ETCN7NUO325GYM/

[Greekwatchdog]

Heard it all before. Like 8 months ago when Pandemic started. Now where are we? Going to take more than Letters from a Politician and Threats from RBNZ to make it happen..

[bull....]

Letter is a response to public pressure and keeping political capital in place. Will it have any real impact?

Orr's response, translated eloquently in the link below, suggests not. Sounds like RBNZ will move on data, not letters.

https://thespinoff.co.nz/politics/25-11-2020/grant-robertson-v-adrian-orr-those-letters-decoded/

robinson in effect has announced a working group lol and passed the buck , but with the issue a political one now ( the opposition will use it to attack the govt on all fronts) i cannot see how rbnz or govt cannot do something material to effect the market weather thru supply or monetary policy. if anything i think the pace of gains going forward in time wont be the same.

[Beagle]

Surprised one or two of our resident TA experts haven't commented on the abandoned baby TA...share price certainly looked like one in the last couple of days.
Must be trading very close too or below net asset value now. Got to be the BUY of the sector at the current price surely !

I agree with the prevailing sentiment that Govt talk is cheap and the massive imbalance with demand dramatically outstripping supply will see house prices heading significantly further upwards in the foreseeable future. I expect OCA will reap those benefits in the current year and in the years ahead. OCA remains my largest market investment and I have no interest whatsoever in selling.

https://www.msn.com/en-nz/money/other/robertson-is-passing-the-buck-a-bit-on-house-prices-but-what-else-is-he-to-do/ar-BB1bjKpn?ocid=msedgntp

[Waltzing]

bull is correct , its the biggest Hail Marry yet for a government that failed in housing and now has thrown in the towel...

its a shocker ...

interest rates from the FED will stay low... no one can increase them again that dollar without hurting there own exports...

[wagwan]

robinson in effect has announced a working group lol and passed the buck , but with the issue a political one now ( the opposition will use it to attack the govt on all fronts) i cannot see how rbnz or govt cannot do something material to effect the market weather thru supply or monetary policy. if anything i think the pace of gains going forward in time wont be the same.

Yep agree completely.

Supply feedback loop will be slow though, and needs to keep up at least with demand from (a) potential returnees (although I reckon the impact of this has been materially overstated), and (b) organic population growth.

"Least regrets" approach from RBNZ seems to be in full affect

Also, given the amount of public, and private, debt now in the financial system - any increase in the cost of borrowing would have to be slow in implementation otherwise servicing would go through the floor, and with it consumer confidence and spending. Economy to follow.

[dreamcatcher]

"The idea that a “flood of New Zealanders” are coming back to New Zealand is a myth, economists say, and that could have significant implications for the year ahead"

https://www.stuff.co.nz/business/300122274/flood-of-returning-kiwis-is-a-myth-economists-say

[Beagle]

"The idea that a “flood of New Zealanders” are coming back to New Zealand is a myth, economists say, and that could have significant implications for the year ahead"

https://www.stuff.co.nz/business/300122274/flood-of-returning-kiwis-is-a-myth-economists-say

Backward looking. A recent survey in the UK showed a whopping 44% of ex pats there intended to return to N.Z. either in the next year or the one thereafter. Bottleneck at the border is the issue at this point in time.

[dreamcatcher]

Backward looking. A recent survey in the UK showed a whopping 44% of ex pats there intended to return to N.Z. either in the next year or the one thereafter. Bottleneck at the border is the issue at this point in time.

Now that a vaccine is becoming available will there be any other reason in returning home other then to avoid COVID?

[McPussPuss]

The only assumption I would make regarding property is that there is an implicit underwriting by the RBNZ and the Govt. of the day.

The increasing political pressure will merely lead to a higher level of transparency into the self-interest/hypocrisy of those at the wheel.

My opinion is that the only thing worth watching regarding real estate is interest rates and I can't see NZ bucking the global trend in the race to the bottom.

Even without the myth of record numbers returning buyers are only able to bid as high as banks will lend to them and this, is rapidly surging due to increased serviceability.

[Cyclical]

Backward looking. A recent survey in the UK showed a whopping 44% of ex pats there intended to return to N.Z. either in the next year or the one thereafter. Bottleneck at the border is the issue at this point in time.

I'll believe it when I see it. There was something questioning the validity of the kea survey but I can't find it right now. Even so, by the time said bottleneck abates, it'll probably be because the covid threat has been mostly dealt with (ie vaccine success) and all these people queuing to come home will be having second thoughts. On top of that there'll be all those kiwis that have put overseas plans / OE's on hold just chomping at the bit to get out of here, plus those that did come home wanting to get back to their more interesting lives abroad. Yeah, nah, I reckon it'll all balance out and we'll just get back to the circa 50-60k net immigration again.

[wagwan]

An alternative RBNZ could use to control appreciation of asset prices - DTI ratios.

However are they already implicitly in play through servicing sensitivity bank use when assessing home lending?

Below a good summary:

The RBNZ believes that debt-to-income (DTI) ratio limits would be a useful addition to the macro prudential toolkit. They should be given that tool quickly.

The Bank of England’s DTI cap is 4.5, with some flexibility for a portion of lending above that. In NZ, latest data shows more than 40 percent of new lending to first home buyers is at a DTI above 5. The figure is close to 60 percent for Auckland.
DTI limits cut to the chase; the heart of financial system resilience is debt. People are taking on lots.

Banks have a quasi DTI in play as they employ a higher interest rate [~5%] as an interest rate in their mortgage affordability calculations when looking at mortgage applications.

At some stage houses become unaffordable as Banks are unable to extend large enough mortgages under their self-imposed metrics. So overtime the serviceability equation, that has improved markedly due to significantly lower interest rates, will work its way through asset prices and the capacity to leverage.

...there is an implication for first home buyers in the DTI equation.


----

On a related note, also interesting to see that Orr noted in press conference that "RISING HOUSEHOLD WEALTH IS IMPORTANT MONPOL CHANNEL"

----


The more fundamental question at hand is, even if debt is cheap, do SME's and small businesses want more of it?

Attached would suggest not, with these parts of the business sector prioritising liquidity and debt reduction in these uncertain times

Evidently the case would be different for listed companies - cheaper debt is better.

However the sentiment and actions in the school of small fish does have a material impact on the economy in which the big fish swim.
12111
12112

[Blue Skies]

I'll believe it when I see it. There was something questioning the validity of the kea survey but I can't find it right now. Even so, by the time said bottleneck abates, it'll probably be because the covid threat has been mostly dealt with (ie vaccine success) and all these people queuing to come home will be having second thoughts. On top of that there'll be all those kiwis that have put overseas plans / OE's on hold just chomping at the bit to get out of here, plus those that did come home wanting to get back to their more interesting lives abroad. Yeah, nah, I reckon it'll all balance out and we'll just get back to the circa 50-60k net immigration again.


Agreed, a few months ago Covid free NZ looked very appealing but with vaccines being rolled out shortly there's no reason, & anecdotal evidence revealing NZ property prices & rents making NZ look quite unappealing to anyone considering returning.

[dreamcatcher]

Agreed, a few months ago Covid free NZ looked very appealing but with vaccines being rolled out shortly there's no reason, & anecdotal evidence revealing NZ property prices & rents making NZ look quite unappealing to anyone considering returning.

Totally agree a vaccine will change peoples previous decisions.

[Habits]

Who listens to Louis Navellier podcast ... latest one attached ... https://navellier.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/11/Market-Podcast-November-24-2020.m4a
https://navellier.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/11/Market-Podcast-November-24-2020.m4a

Apparently US fed funds rate will stay at zero for a while yet, which will be good for equities in general and I think especially for retirement operators

[Entrep]

Agreed, a few months ago Covid free NZ looked very appealing but with vaccines being rolled out shortly there's no reason, & anecdotal evidence revealing NZ property prices & rents making NZ look quite unappealing to anyone considering returning.

Good points

[Beagle]

Like any survey there will be those that follow through and those that don't. It could be well into the back half of 2021 before a vaccine is widely available. As far as I know fear of death is still a compelling motivational force !!

Aside for that there could be 101 other reasons ex pats stuck in crowded, congested London or any other major city around the world with all its problems wants to swap that lifestyle for something more relaxed e.g. https://www.realestate.co.nz/3882351/residential/sale/4-grand-vista-lane-kinloch

In the meantime we have record low interest rates.

[iceman]

I'll believe it when I see it. There was something questioning the validity of the kea survey but I can't find it right now. Even so, by the time said bottleneck abates, it'll probably be because the covid threat has been mostly dealt with (ie vaccine success) and all these people queuing to come home will be having second thoughts. On top of that there'll be all those kiwis that have put overseas plans / OE's on hold just chomping at the bit to get out of here, plus those that did come home wanting to get back to their more interesting lives abroad. Yeah, nah, I reckon it'll all balance out and we'll just get back to the circa 50-60k net immigration again.

Completely agree with you. The KEA survey holds no water. Of course everyone will say "yes" they will consider returning to NZ but as soon as things turn to some normality, the young people that are enjoying their living in London, New York and China are not going to come back to a clogged up and boring Auckland. According to statistics NZ, in the 7 months to October 2020 (Apr-Oct) , we had 23,391 people arriving in NZ and of those only 14,285 not requiring visa, so most likely Kiwis returning.
For the same 7 months, 96.929 people left the country. Most of them were obviously foreign nationals. But both departing and arriving people needed housing so it is simply a complete myth that house price increases this year have anything to do with a flood of Kiwis returning home. And they won't, too many were running away from student loans and COVID poses a lot less risk to them than repayment of student loans :-) :-)

[Beagle]

I was right up the top of the sky tower the other day Iceman and enjoyed the stunning vista looking out over the harbor and cityscape. We really are blessed here to have access to such a wide array of islands to visit in the Hauraki Gulf. Little bit over fished now. I remember the days you could count on getting a decent feed of snapper just off the northern tip of Waiheke Island...sadly now days you'd need perseverance and a vast amount of burley.

Got chatting to a client this morning about their Waimarie consent on a volcanic cone with outstanding feature overlay. I'm a trustee and we're trying to get consent on his land for a normal subdivision on a site with outstanding natural feature overlay. Local Iwi are kicking up a big storm as well as the Volcanic society and every greenie and his dog barking up a storm.

I still can't believe they got that consent at Waimarie St. Might have to ask management what's their "secret sauce" recipe. OCA's consenting is the exact opposite of the 6 year fiasco SUM had with Boulcott street which finally achieved consent the other day. Whatever OCA's secret consenting methodology is (86% of their entire future redevelopment program is already consented) the market is ascribing no value to it.

[iceman]

I was right up the top of the sky tower the other day Iceman and enjoyed the stunning vista looking out over the harbor and cityscape.

I understand and agree but I don't think tens of thousands of young Kiwis living it up in big cities around the World will be flocking home to do that, especially when all the roads around the Sky Tower are blocked or clogged so they can't get back to the nightclub !

[dreamcatcher]

Believe there's 3 Covid vaccines now with another days away. 20m doses by 11th Dec and 30m monthly thereafter multiply that by 4 so momentum building. Maybe formula sharing be available ?

[peat]

I was right up the top of the sky tower the other day Iceman and enjoyed the stunning vista looking out over the harbor and cityscape. We really are blessed here to have access to such a wide array of islands to visit in the Hauraki Gulf. Little bit over fished now.


I still can't believe they got that consent at Waimarie St. Might have to ask management what's their "secret sauce" recipe. OCA's consenting is the exact opposite of the 6 year fiasco SUM had with Boulcott street which finally achieved consent the other day. Whatever OCA's secret consenting methodology is (86% of their entire future redevelopment program is already consented) the market is ascribing no value to it.

off topic already so am just going to blatantly skite about where I spent Saturday afternoon bbq'ing and drinking whiskey :cool:

12115
These guys are never going to sell .... the property has been in the family for 100 years or so.

They reckoned that 'everybody says' there were backhanders to get the 5 storey consent for THe Sands......

[Beagle]

What's a backhander ;)

[Curly]

Unfortunately I was out and about yesterday afternoon otherwise I would have given it a cuddle at that price.
Probably time I stopped teasing the TA experts. Quite possibly isn't helping.
Just over 2 months until the half year results in January which (if Mav and I are right with our analysis and I am backing myself to the hilt to be right and I know he is too), is going to stun the market and leave the analysts gob smacked and scrambling to revise their price targets. Forsyth Barr will have to dramatically raise their $1.65 price target probably by about 50 cents like they did last time, this time to $2.15 !


Well RYM and ARV results are out and the market responded negatively to both. OCAs January result will have to be a rip snorter result to shift the current price north. $2.15 looking like pie in the sky given given current mood in mkt in the retirement home sector.

[Gunner]

Well RYM and ARV results are out and the market responded negatively to both. OCAs January result will have to be a rip snorter result to shift the current price north. $2.15 looking like pie in the sky given given current mood in mkt in the retirement home sector.

Rym and ARV reporting included the lockdown period. Oca have already reported theirs. The January reporting will be post lockdown and will include the rising house prices. The good result may surprise the market and boom boom.

[Waltzing]

Interest rates staying ultra low for several years to come at least highly chance.

NZ government having executed an over the top Hail Marry in mid air and the NZ investor having invested in housing since before Adam i just would not want to bet against jane and jim investing saving in the house and where possible prehaps a retirement stock because its easier than a rental or 2. I know a young ACA and even he has a rental plus an stock holdings in game stocks on the NAS ect..

I see these lovely retirement allotments all round the country side here and they are adding a lot of business to the communities where they are springing up.

Until the numbers go south at you cant afford to bet against the housing market in the shaky isles. The govt has given up and are no longer in the game.

[Curly]

Rym and ARV reporting included the lockdown period. Oca have already reported theirs. The January reporting will be post lockdown and will include the rising house prices. The good result may surprise the market and boom boom.

Yes that I suggest is a known to most on this thread. One can only hope. Time will tell

[Gunner]

Yes that I suggest is a known to most on this thread. One can only hope. Time will tell

The shutdown was a significant disruption to business and the additional cost. A nice surprise in store for January IMO.

[bull....]

Yep agree completely.

Supply feedback loop will be slow though, and needs to keep up at least with demand from (a) potential returnees (although I reckon the impact of this has been materially overstated), and (b) organic population growth.

"Least regrets" approach from RBNZ seems to be in full affect

Also, given the amount of public, and private, debt now in the financial system - any increase in the cost of borrowing would have to be slow in implementation otherwise servicing would go through the floor, and with it consumer confidence and spending. Economy to follow.

one way the govt could stimulate the market is with incentives for developers in the rent to own space. this is a starting up growth area in australia eg mirvac listed on the asx is getting into this, in NZ kpg is looking into it. local govt provide incentives for large scale rent to own developments. with incentives the market would correct the supply issue pretty quick.

[bottomfeeder]

Well RYM and ARV results are out and the market responded negatively to both. OCAs January result will have to be a rip snorter result to shift the current price north. $2.15 looking like pie in the sky given given current mood in mkt in the retirement home sector.

Yes but expecting at least $1.50 very soon.

[Beagle]

We know from the annual meeting address in late Sept that the first quarter sales, (June to August 2020) were up 26% on pcp and that there were many high value Meadowbank and Sands units involved.

I wonder how Q2 sales are going as we draw this second quarter to a close. Hmmm

[Waltzing]

awaiting market update.. and what does MR B think about ARG...

[Greekwatchdog]

ANZ Been selling a few..http://nzx-prod-s7fsd7f98s.s3-website-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/attachments/OCA/364124/336326.pdf

[bull....]

ANZ Been selling a few..http://nzx-prod-s7fsd7f98s.s3-website-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/attachments/OCA/364124/336326.pdf

first time i seen a sub holder since mac quarie selling ... wow

[Waltzing]

wall of money .......waiting for the numbers... show us the numbers ...

it could just be a re balance into another product or even a brainless panic sell... remember they might also have need to raise capital for something...they are only a bank, not a brains trust. remember the banking enquiry.. i have met with a local bank sale investment guy several times over the last 24 months and brains trust not... more like a slick second hand car sales man.

https://www.stuff.co.nz/business/opinion-analysis/300168640/heres-why-you-shouldnt-believe-what-youre-told-about-the-housing-market

house prices going down soon? well prehaps not yet...

[Gunner]

House prices continue to increase https://www.newshub.co.nz/home/money/2020/12/prices-pushed-upwards-asking-price-for-houses-up-in-november-nationally.html

[winner69]

That LTI scheme they told us about the other day - apparently we need to wait until the 2021 Annual Report to find out what the UESP (Underlying Earnings per Share) growth targets are - ie what Earl et al will get their bonus on. Bit of a lack of transparency here I reckon

Probably they'll consult with Jarden/Forbar to get a nice easy growth target so we as shareholders can throw an easy few mill Earls way

Incentives align execs interests with shareholders - a big signal that money/profits come first and everything else doesn't really matter. I'd prefer Earl et all were paid their bonus on a residents/patient satisfaction rating/score or even a staff engagement number - that's aligning exec interests with what really matters

[iceman]

DeletedDeleted

[Beagle]

That LTI scheme they told us about the other day - apparently we need to wait until the 2021 Annual Report to find out what the UESP (Underlying Earnings per Share) growth targets are - ie what Earl et al will get their bonus on. Bit of a lack of transparency here I reckon

Probably they'll consult with Jarden/Forbar to get a nice easy growth target so we as shareholders can throw an easy few mill Earls way

Incentives align execs interests with shareholders - a big signal that money/profits come first and everything else doesn't really matter. I'd prefer Earl et all were paid their bonus on a residents/patient satisfaction rating/score or even a staff engagement number - that's aligning exec interests with what really matters

$517K is his salary last year as disclosed in the 2020 annual report. (Some glorified bus drivers at Air New Zealand are earning more). I think that's the lowest CEO's salary I can ever recall and I think he is a very capable leader so there's no question in my mind that his base salary is very fair and reasonable indeed ! It's not easy at all being a CEO especially in these extraordinarily trying times, just look at how many CEO's of other listed companies have resigned because of the pressure, (hope he doesn't). LTI thing probably is suboptimal disclosure but lets not jump to any conclusions yet.

[McPussPuss]

Why the unnecessary disparaging of a respected profession where a bad day at work can result in over 300 people dying not to mention incredibly volatile job security and a massive personal outlay for training. I don't see how that is relevant to this thread either. If Earl or most other CEOs make an error of judgement the only thing usually hurt is a balance sheet.

If you want to gripe about professionals in society that aren't part of the F.I.R.E. club start a thread on off-market.

[dobby41]

Why the unnecessary disparaging of a respected profession where a bad day at work can result in over 300 people dying not to mention incredibly volatile job security and a massive personal outlay for training. I don't see how that is relevant to this thread either.

I wondered the same.
He has had a big bee in his bonnet over AIR and Pilots pay (and AIR pay in general) for a while now but it is quite irrational to pop the comment in here.

[GTM 3442]

So what's up with the bonds that they need a trading halt while it's sorted out?


"To: Market Participants
From: NZX Product Operations
Date: Tuesday, 2 December 2020
Subject: Oceania Healthcare Limited Bonds ("OCA010") - Trading Halt of
Securities

Message:
NZX Regulation ("NZXR") advises that a trading halt has been placed on
Oceania Healthcare Limited ("OCA010") Bonds, pending confirmation of
operational matters relating to the bond.

The halt will remain in place while this is investigated, and NZXR will
provide an update when further information is available.

Please contact NZX Product Operations on +64 4 496 2853 or
productoperations@nzx.com with any queries.

ENDS
End CA:00364311 For:OCA Type:HALT Time:2020-12-02 09:14:42"

[winner69]

Been a bit slack around here lately and share price languishes around $1.30

We need some good news to come out of the company to get punters excited again

If they not careful the world will pass them by --- no wonder always apparently 'undervalued', even though Forbar says $1.65 (I think it was)

[bottomfeeder]

We need a confirmation of the next dividend, as well as the final results, including the positive revaluations. Then I can see the $1.65 coming fast.

[Baa_Baa]

Been a bit slack around here lately and share price languishes around $1.30

We need some good news to come out of the company to get punters excited again

If they not careful the world will pass them by --- no wonder always apparently 'undervalued', even though Forbar says $1.65 (I think it was)

Let's not rush a good thing, January sometime they'll tell us their property valuation at last reporting was bogus (hope they fired the independent valuer) and us accumulators will have a much larger pile of happiness to enjoy for summer. Almost at target holdings, please don't ramp my average entry price any more.

;)

[James108]

Can’t begrudge airline pilots when you have lawyers with 4 years experience charging out at $250/hr... aaaanyway

[Pegasus2000]

NZ Herald: Wide-sweeping retirement village law change mooted, owners reject suggestion

https://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/wide-sweeping-retirement-village-law-change-mooted-owners-reject-suggestion/PTLIY6AUZ4FKMIR6BS5WCJ4GPI/?utm_source=ST&utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=ShareTrader+AM+Update+for+Thursday+3+ December+2020 (https://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/wide-sweeping-retirement-village-law-change-mooted-owners-reject-suggestion/PTLIY6AUZ4FKMIR6BS5WCJ4GPI/?utm_source=ST&utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=ShareTrader+AM+Update+for+Thursday+3+ December+2020)

[peat]

NZ Herald: Wide-sweeping retirement village law change mooted, owners reject suggestion

(https://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/wide-sweeping-retirement-village-law-change-mooted-owners-reject-suggestion/PTLIY6AUZ4FKMIR6BS5WCJ4GPI/?utm_source=ST&utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=ShareTrader+AM+Update+for+Thursday+3+ December+2020)https://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/wide-sweeping-retirement-village-law-change-mooted-owners-reject-suggestion/PTLIY6AUZ4FKMIR6BS5WCJ4GPI/?utm_source=ST&utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=ShareTrader+AM+Update+for+Thursday+3+ December+2020


yes regulation is a risk in this industry but those mooted changes in that article seem pretty innocuous to me - despite the industry rep rubbishing them , thats his job.

[dreamcatcher]

Lets see where these Retirement stock go ....posted on 4/6

Updated -----------4/6----------..6/7--------------5/8.................8/9...............7/10............7/11............3/12

Arvida ..............$1.37..........$1.48 ............$1.60.............$1.65............ $1.77.........$1.78..........$1.67
Summerset.......$6.34..........$6.73.............$ 7.80............$8.56.............$9.15........$10 .50........$10.83
Ryman..............$13.35........$13.04 ..........$12.77..........$13.79..........$14.85.. ......$14.70........$14.69
Oceania............$0.94..........$0.95 ............$1.03.............$1.04............ $1.20.........$1.36..........$1.29
Metlifecare........$4.28..........$5.76 ............$5.92.............$5.94............$5. 98 .........$6.00..........0000

Wonder which company be most affected if property prices wane

[Cyclical]

Wonder which company be most affected if property prices wane

Are you anticipating that sometime in the not too distant future?

[Gunner]

Are you anticipating that sometime in the not too distant future?

No sign of it yet it or the next 6 months imo. See what the LVR and interest rates are doing early mid next year.

[Cyclical]

No sign of it yet it or the next 6 months imo. See what the LVR and interest rates are doing early mid next year.

Yeah, I'm inclined to agree. I read the article over at Interest that dreamcatcher posted a link to in the Summerset thread, so see where he's coming from, but a cooling of the property market, which would only be natural after the recent increases, is a lot different to a retraction, if that's what he means by waning. Too big issues here...under supply and cheap money. The gov can't do jack about the cheap money as the dollar is already getting too high for the exporters, so they actually need to stop talking and get real about sorting out the supply side. So a "cooling" of the market I'm expecting in the new year, but otherwise same same for the next few years...covid or serious geopolitical notwithstanding...at which point we've got other things to worry about.

[dreamcatcher]

Are you anticipating that sometime in the not too distant future?

Just another property story from today

"We may be looking at the beginning of the end of the current housing boom, Realestate.co.nz figures suggest"

[Gunner]

Yeah, I'm inclined to agree. I read the article over at Interest that dreamcatcher posted a link to in the Summerset thread, so see where he's coming from, but a cooling of the property market, which would only be natural after the recent increases, is a lot different to a retraction, if that's what he means by waning. Too big issues here...under supply and cheap money. The gov can't do jack about the cheap money as the dollar is already getting too high for the exporters, so they actually need to stop talking and get real about sorting out the supply side. So a "cooling" of the market I'm expecting in the new year, but otherwise same same for the next few years...covid or serious geopolitical notwithstanding...at which point we've got other things to worry about.

Agreed. All about the supply but too many invested parties on the quite dont want house price inflation to decrease imo. Every few years or less the same old issue of house price inflation pops up but no party seem to be able to sort it out.

Most of thse politicians really are clueless. Kiwibuild, nice try but no. About as effective as having an ex wood work teacher and career politician in charge of the chch eq rebuild a.k.a Gerry Brownlee.

[dreamcatcher]

Only people wishing for house price decreasing is BUYERS but agree house owners are enjoying the rally as is the NZ economy.

[Blue Skies]

I thought Don Brash made some interesting observations on Q& A last week,

1) the challenge for any government, which no govt has been able to face is to bring down property prices AND get re-elected,

and 2) the cost of land, when a small section in a place like Flat Bush miles out from the centre of Auckland costs $800,000, and you put a cheap $300,000 house on it, you’re well over the million dollar mark and 10 X the average wage, when it should only be 3 or 5 X the average wage.

NZ is now the most expensive English speaking country in world for housing relative to income.
They have to bring down the cost of land and that’s to do with councils freeing up urban boundaries and working out how to pay for infrastructure like roads and water for new developments without immediately loading it all onto the price of the development.

[dompf]

I thought Don Brash made some interesting observations on Q& A last week,

1) the challenge for any government, which no govt has been able to face is to bring down property prices AND get re-elected,

and 2) the cost of land, when a small section in a place like Flat Bush miles out from the centre of Auckland costs $800,000, and you put a cheap $300,000 house on it, you’re well over the million dollar mark and 10 X the average wage, when it should only be 3 or 5 X the average wage.

NZ is now the most expensive English speaking country in world for housing relative to income.
They have to bring down the cost of land and that’s to do with councils freeing up urban boundaries and working out how to pay for infrastructure like roads and water for new developments without immediately loading it all onto the price of the development.

Vancouver, Sydney and Melbourne have more expensive house to income according to Canstar 2020.

Government needs to overhaul RMA they do need to free up land, they also need to reign Fletchers in, as the cost to build as house in NZ is way too high.

[winner69]

Our Liz named Chairperson of Year at big Deloittes annual do last night

Oceania not mentioned though .....maybe it’s their strategy to keep a low profile in the investment world.

[Habits]

Agreed. All about the supply but too many invested parties on the quite dont want house price inflation to decrease imo. Every few years or less the same old issue of house price inflation pops up but no party seem to be able to sort it out.

Most of thse politicians really are clueless. Kiwibuild, nice try but no. About as effective as having an ex wood work teacher and career politician in charge of the chch eq rebuild a.k.a Gerry Brownlee.

I was with you until you had a stab at GB, the nats did not get everything right but what they did get is affordable housing by removing the RMA rules in chch The RMA has to be the dumbest act ever legislated in nz along with other moves by the green lobby. Thankfully national got rid of wholesale tree protection and brought in the supercity. Look whats happening in canal rd Avondale, tree protesters trespassing and banging on for a few scruffy and poorly maintained trees where development is badly needed. Its their chance to make a big noise and I think some politicians have already been down there which is disgraceful.

[Beagle]

Our Liz named Chairperson of Year at big Deloittes annual do last night

Oceania not mentioned though .....maybe it’s their strategy to keep a low profile in the investment world.

Alan Isaac is now president of the Institute of Directors...Senior management are supported by a very high caliber board of directors.
https://www.iod.org.nz/about-us/our-council/#

[winner69]

Alan Isaac is now president of the Institute of Directors...Senior management are supported by a very high caliber board of directors.
https://www.iod.org.nz/about-us/our-council/#

I went to school with Alan ...spent hours playing cricket with him after school

Alan was ICC President for a few years

Good guy

[Blue Skies]

Vancouver, Sydney and Melbourne have more expensive house to income according to Canstar 2020.

Government needs to overhaul RMA they do need to free up land, they also need to reign Fletchers in, as the cost to build as house in NZ is way too high.


What’s the point of diminishing the outrageous cost of housing to income ratio in NZ by finding a particular survey where NZ is just behind Vancouver Sydney and Melbourne? Is that supposed to make it ok.
Several of the latest international surveys put NZ at the very top of Housing affordability to disposable income ratio, it’s a shocking statistic, and diminishing it in any way enables vested interests to continue doing little to address it.
So many problems in society and eventually costs to the taxpayer stem from poor or unstable housing.

[iceman]

We don't need to look very far to see how house prices can be tamed. Sorry a little of thread as not directly related to OCA but certainly related to last few posts on here https://businessdesk.co.nz/article/property/how-canterbury-built-its-way-to-affordable-housing

[dompf]

What’s the point of diminishing the outrageous cost of housing to income ratio in NZ by finding a particular survey where NZ is just behind Vancouver Sydney and Melbourne? Is that supposed to make it ok.
Several of the latest international surveys put NZ at the very top of Housing affordability to disposable income ratio, it’s a shocking statistic, and diminishing it in any way enables vested interests to continue doing little to address it.
So many problems in society and eventually costs to the taxpayer stem from poor or unstable housing.

I’m not saying it’s a good thing we’re up there I’m saying there are other countries up there as well.

You are commenting on a retirement property stock on how unaffordable property is but your invested in it.

The haves and the have nots could be where it ends up. Is it right? Probably not, has this problem been around for decades yes , has anyone got an actual solution, no.

[macduffy]

I was ICC President for a few years


I knew that Alan Isaac was ICC President. Didn't know that you were, too, winner!

:ohmy:

[winner69]

I knew that Alan Isaac was ICC President. Didn't know that you were, too, winner!

:ohmy:

Ha ha ..what a faux pas

Been wanting to use that french phrase for a few days ...beagle might get what I was getting at

[Waltzing]

Kansas ? the US is complaining of the same housing price confluence..in NZL land is Gold...

hope that sentence makes some sense...:mellow:

added to that , Tulips anyone?

but then again houses in a far off land with beaches and blue skies that is the envy of the world ..

is it no wonder there is no place like home ...

https://www.stuff.co.nz/business/opinion-analysis/300175287/how-past-generations-pulled-up-the-property-ladder-on-todays-youth

The property market wont be allowed to be Tulips and arnt they far more practical an investment. Profits for this sector seem to be baked in for at least the next 5 years and beyond.

https://www.interest.co.nz/property/108265/westpacs-economists-think-red-hot-housing-market-will-continue-until-interest-rates


Our favourite red ones are ...


https://www.amstel.com/

[JSwan]

Kansas ? the US is complaining of the same housing price confluence..in NZL land is Gold...

hope that sentence makes some sense...:mellow:

added to that , Tulips anyone?

but then again houses in a far off land with beaches and blue skies that is the envy of the world ..

is it no wonder there is no place like home ...

https://www.stuff.co.nz/business/opinion-analysis/300175287/how-past-generations-pulled-up-the-property-ladder-on-todays-youth

The property market wont be allowed to be Tulips and arnt they far more practical an investment. Profits for this sector seem to be baked in for at least the next 5 years and beyond.

https://www.interest.co.nz/property/108265/westpacs-economists-think-red-hot-housing-market-will-continue-until-interest-rates


Our favourite red ones are ...


https://www.amstel.com/

Didn't the same economists predict the housing market to tumble this year? Oops

[Waltzing]

Yes they did !!!! But it appears the NEW consensus is up for a while!!!

[Gunner]

Yes they did !!!! But it appears the NEW consensus is up for a while!!!

I guess it's hard for them to argue against facts.

[nztx]

Proposal to make retirement villages share capital gains with residents

https://www.stuff.co.nz/business/123592472/proposal-to-make-retirement-villages-share-capital-gains-with-residents

Is the Rest Homes Party about to get too crowded - as more clueless muppets from another Quazi Govt Commission want to join in & have a mindless meddle in things ? ;)

I knew there must have been good reason why I jumped out this sector a while back .. ;)

[Brain]

Yes they did !!!! But it appears the NEW consensus is up for a while!!!

Yes economists are very good at describing the present but are absolutely hopeless at predicting the future and it seems to me there are no recriminations. Private sector guys go broke and lose their homes if they make judgements as bad as the economists

[Waltzing]

"clueless muppets from another Quazi Govt Commission"

Classic!

, well NZ just had an election. I dont know if anyone in wellington being paid by the tax payer really cares once the money is in the bank account!

[BlackPeter]

Yes economists are very good at describing the present but are absolutely hopeless at predicting the future and it seems to me there are no recriminations. Private sector guys go broke and lose their homes if they make judgements as bad as the economists

Economists are perhaps better than some other people in explaining how the economy got to where it currently is, but they are as good as everybody else (but not worse either) in trying to predict the future.

If you want to understand the reasons you might want to look into chaos theory ... and the economy is not just a simple first order chaotic system but a second order chaotic system where elements with knowledge about the system are part of the system and does impact its behaviour. We all are part of the problem :):

https://danielmiessler.com/blog/first-second-order-chaos/#:~:text=First%20Order%20Chaos%20doesn't%20respond %20to%20prediction.&text=Second%20Order%20Chaos%20is%20infinitely,thin gs%20like%20stocks%20and%20politics.

I think by now we all should know that NOBODY is able to predict the future, and this includes preachers of any couleur, politicians, analysts, sharetrader posters including you and me as well all economists.

No point in singling individuals out.

[Leftfield]

Economists are perhaps better than some other people in explaining how the economy got to where it currently is, but they are as good as everybody else (but not worse either) in trying to predict the future.

If you want to understand the reasons you might want to look into chaos theory ... and the economy is not just a simple first order chaotic system but a second order chaotic system where elements with knowledge about the system are part of the system and does impact its behaviour. We all are part of the problem :):

https://danielmiessler.com/blog/first-second-order-chaos/#:~:text=First%20Order%20Chaos%20doesn't%20respond %20to%20prediction.&text=Second%20Order%20Chaos%20is%20infinitely,thin gs%20like%20stocks%20and%20politics.

I think by now we all should know that NOBODY is able to predict the future, and this includes preachers of any couleur, politicians, analysts, sharetrader posters including you and me as well all economists.

No point in singling individuals out.

Well said BP......

[winner69]

Accountonomists are a different breed altogether ...a more realist approach to things than what economists practice.

[winner69]

A couple accountant economist jokes


—————————————————————————————————————————————————

A mathematician, an accountant and an economist apply for the same job.

The interviewer calls in the mathematician and asks "What do two plus two equal?" The mathematician replies "Four." The interviewer asks "Four, exactly?" The mathematician looks at the interviewer incredulously and says "Yes, four, exactly."

Then the interviewer calls in the accountant and asks the same question "What do two plus two equal?" The accountant says "On average, four - give or take ten percent, but on average, four."

Then the interviewer calls in the economist and poses the same question "What do two plus two equal?" The economist gets up, locks the door, closes the shade, sits down next to the interviewer and says, "What do you want it to equal"?




—————————————————————————————————————————————————— —-
Man walking along a road in the countryside comes across a shepherd and a huge flock of sheep. Tells the shepherd, "I will bet you $100 against one of your sheep that I can tell you the exact number in this flock." The shepherd thinks it over; it's a big flock so he takes the bet. "973," says the man. The shepherd is astonished, because that is exactly right. Says "OK, I'm a man of my word, take an animal." Man picks one up and begins to walk away.

"Wait," cries the shepherd, "Let me have a chance to get even. Double or nothing that I can guess your exact occupation." Man says sure. "You are an economist for a government think tank," says the shepherd. "Amazing!" responds the man, "You are exactly right! But tell me, how did you deduce that?"

"Well," says the shepherd, "put down my beagle and I will tell you."

—————————————————————————————————————————————————— ——-

[Waltzing]

Off Topic:

Its a nation in turbulence as the profits from property accumulate. Imagine if there is another crisis in the next ten years. We are hurrying to get ready.

[Brain]

Economists are perhaps better than some other people in explaining how the economy got to where it currently is, but they are as good as everybody else (but not worse either) in trying to predict the future.

If you want to understand the reasons you might want to look into chaos theory ... and the economy is not just a simple first order chaotic system but a second order chaotic system where elements with knowledge about the system are part of the system and does impact its behaviour. We all are part of the problem :):

https://danielmiessler.com/blog/first-second-order-chaos/#:~:text=First%20Order%20Chaos%20doesn't%20respond %20to%20prediction.&text=Second%20Order%20Chaos%20is%20infinitely,thin gs%20like%20stocks%20and%20politics.

I think by now we all should know that NOBODY is able to predict the future, and this includes preachers of any couleur, politicians, analysts, sharetrader posters including you and me as well all economists.

No point in singling individuals out.

I am sure that every sensible person understands the difficulty of predicting the future as it is obvious to all. Unfortunately economists do not seem to have grasped that concept which is every reason to single them out.

[Beagle]

A couple accountant economist jokes


————————————————————————————————————————————— ————

A mathematician, an accountant and an economist apply for the same job.

The interviewer calls in the mathematician and asks "What do two plus two equal?" The mathematician replies "Four." The interviewer asks "Four, exactly?" The mathematician looks at the interviewer incredulously and says "Yes, four, exactly."

Then the interviewer calls in the accountant and asks the same question "What do two plus two equal?" The accountant says "On average, four - give or take ten percent, but on average, four."

Then the interviewer calls in the economist and poses the same question "What do two plus two equal?" The economist gets up, locks the door, closes the shade, sits down next to the interviewer and says, "What do you want it to equal"?




—————————————————————————————————————————————————— —-
Man walking along a road in the countryside comes across a shepherd and a huge flock of sheep. Tells the shepherd, "I will bet you $100 against one of your sheep that I can tell you the exact number in this flock." The shepherd thinks it over; it's a big flock so he takes the bet. "973," says the man. The shepherd is astonished, because that is exactly right. Says "OK, I'm a man of my word, take an animal." Man picks one up and begins to walk away.

"Wait," cries the shepherd, "Let me have a chance to get even. Double or nothing that I can guess your exact occupation." Man says sure. "You are an economist for a government think tank," says the shepherd. "Amazing!" responds the man, "You are exactly right! But tell me, how did you deduce that?"

"Well," says the shepherd, "put down my beagle and I will tell you."

—————————————————————————————————————————————————— ——-

Funnily enough the dog's first job in the school holidays as a young pup was on his uncle's sheep farm. 5,000 acres just out of Gore Southland. First job each morning was to ride right around the entire farm looking for cast sheep, sheep who had fallen over on their back and couldn't get up without help. (I suppose you'd send a drone up for that these days). The flock grows quite a bit each year as nature takes its course but you never really know how many until there's a full muster and you bring them all into the yards for drenching or shearing. Uncle Stan had quite a few Huntaway dog's. I used to watch in awe of their speed and determination and at how much they loved their work. I try and bring some of that enthusiasm into my work.

In the same way as you never really know how many sheep you've got until you do a full muster nobody really knows how much underlying profit OCA will earn for the year until there's a full muster of all sales and all costs. I suspect care costs have outstripped the ministry of health 3.0% increase on 1 July 2020 and the August lockdown in Auckland slowed them down a bit and there would have been some ongoing PPE gear costs.

Recent strong gains in real estate prices will take time to flow through into increased retirement unit pricing but those benefits will accrue to OCA in the years ahead and I am confident that having past the point of inflection with their business redevelopment plan we will see good growth in the years ahead.

Real estate is a long term investment, nobody should be under any illusion about that.

[Dotbond]

Funnily enough the dog's first job in the school holidays as a young pup was on his uncle's sheep farm. 5,000 acres just out of Gore Southland.


My partner has a farm just out side Gore in Kaiwera. Only 600 acres but she makes me pretend im a Huntaway sometimes and has me bark up the sheep. Luckily this isn't my day job.

[Maverick]

In the same way as you never really know how many sheep you've got until you do a full muster nobody really knows how much underlying profit OCA will earn for the year until there's a full muster of all sales and all costs. I suspect care costs have outstripped the ministry of health 3.0% increase on 1 July 2020 and the August lockdown in Auckland slowed them down a bit and there would have been some ongoing PPE gear costs.

Recent strong gains in real estate prices will take time to flow through into increased retirement unit pricing but those benefits will accrue to OCA in the years ahead and I am confident that having past the point of inflection with their business redevelopment plan we will see good growth in the years ahead.

Real estate is a long term investment, nobody should be under any illusion about that.Thought it was about time for a contribution just to stay “on the team” while we all standby awaiting the 1HY result.
I thought some here might be interested in some of the numbers I'm personally expecting then;

EPS 5.35c (PCP 4.0c) +33%
Care profit $12.8m (PCP$9.6m)+33%
Village profit $39m(PCP33.2M)+17%
Overheads, depreciation and interest cost $19.3m(PCP$19.1m)+1%
Overall underlying profit $32.8m (PCP $24.6m) +33%

I've withdrawn my full year expectations as I want to see how the 1HY goes first. This post covid property craze is too wild at this point.

Significant changes since last 1HY 2020 have been;
-Macquarie overhang is now gone,
-Property has gone up 15%, depending on the measurement used.
-Sales rates of caresuites and ILUs are now substantially more proven.
-Capital gains tax, NZ and USA elections are all done .
-Interest rates and term deposits are substantially lower.
-The development pipeline has advanced a full year
-Care profits are now past the point of inflection by Beagle, my calcs and according to Earl.(unproven to the market yet though).
-MET is gone.
-Covid cost and disruption came and went -touch wood.

Interestingly, last year's share price after the HY19 result, was about where today's price is. If my numbers are in the ballpark (obviously they won't be perfect but I believe they will be close) and considering the list of years changes above ,then the SP is considerably undervalued in comparison to back then.

If OCA was indeed worth $1.30 then then it's worth a heck of a lot more now no matter how deep or shallow one's research is. I have the greatest confidence that anyone buying or holding at this price will have purchased a fabulous earner both in the short and long term.

(Am I ramping ? I don't particularly care, I'm personally all about the EPS growth not the SP.)

[Beau]

Thanks Maverick appreciate your time on this if it’s anything like your Avida workings they where
spot on.

[iceman]

Maveric I assume the forecasted "village profit" is a typo. Thanks for sharing

[peat]

I think by now we all should know that NOBODY is able to predict the future
Speak for youself mate :p

That shooting star is still holding this stock back ....

[Maverick]

Good spotting Iceman! fixed.
"....you can be my wingman anytime.."

[Beagle]

Thought it was about time for a contribution just to stay “on the team” while we all standby awaiting the 1HY result.
I thought some here might be interested in some of the numbers I'm personally expecting then;

EPS 5.35c (PCP 4.0c) +33%
Care profit $12.8m (PCP$9.6m)+33%
Village profit $39m(PCP43.2M)+14%
Overheads, depreciation and interest cost $19.3m(PCP$19.1m)+1%
Overall underlying profit $32.8m (PCP $24.6m) +33%
I maintain a FY21 underlying 12month profit of about $73m (PCP$42.9m -included full covid effect) +70%

Significant changes since last 1HY 2020 have been;
-Macquarie overhang is now gone,
-Property has gone up 15%, depending on the measurement used.
-Sales rates of caresuites and ILUs are now substantially more proven.
-Capital gains tax, NZ and USA elections are all done .
-Interest rates and term deposits are substantially lower.
-The development pipeline has advanced a full year
-Care profits are now past the point of inflection by Beagle, my calcs and according to Earl.(unproven to the market yet though).
-MET is gone.
-Covid cost and disruption came and went -touch wood.

Interestingly, last year's share price after the HY19 result, was about where today's price is. If my numbers are in the ballpark (obviously they won't be perfect but I believe they will be close) and considering the list of years changes above ,then the SP is considerably undervalued in comparison to back then.

If OCA was indeed worth $1.30 then then it's worth a heck of a lot more now no matter how deep or shallow one's research is. I have the greatest confidence that anyone buying or holding at this price will have purchased a fabulous earner both in the short and long term.

(Am I ramping ? I don't particularly care, I'm personally all about the EPS growth not the SP.)



Thanks Mav,

I was at $35m underlying for the half but have pulled that back a bit due to:-
1. Second lockdown in the Auckland region caused interference with their refurbishment program
2. Although my model suggests sales are progressing well, sales in the pcp comprised a lot of very high value sea view Sands units with some selling at up to $2.5m and this is not so repeated in this half
3. Ongoing higher PPE costs regarding new Covid 19 protocols in the care facilities
4. Staff costs outstripping the 3% annual increase provided by the ministry of health
5. I expect the huge increase in real estate prices to provide a benefit to OCA in future years but not so much in the current year.

I'll be very pleased indeed if you're more right than I am on this half's underlying profit and look forward to the results being released in late January.

I haven't got a new number for the half year, (I see it somewhere in the $25-$30m range) and won't get too prescriptive about it as I am focusing on the medium to longer term. I see underlying earnings per share growth in the 15-20% per annum range in the foreseeable future and even if they do 8 cps underlying for the 10 months as Forsyth Barr are forecasting and 9.7 cps for FY22 that's a forward FY22 PE of $1.30 / 0.097 = 13.4 for FY22 which I think is compelling value.

I think the current share price is probably quite close to the NAV, which as we know is NTA + developments in progress and a few other things.

An investment is the retirement sector is ostensibly an investment in property. In my opinion its much easier to get a decent medium - long term return on property when you are paying fair value for it than if you pay huge amounts for goodwill with some of the others in this sector.

OCA senior management certainly have the "Midas touch" with getting extremely difficult resource consents through, (like Waimarie St), and the intellectual property, skills and capabilities behind those processes that have allowed ~ 86% of all their future development plans to be already consented are something that I note is not recorded on their balance sheet anywhere...but I would argue it has quite a high degree of value going forward.

Disc: I recently trimmed my high OCA portfolio allocation a little (to get back slightly under my self imposed maximum of 15% in any one share) and reallocated those funds to HGH.
With the gap that's now opened up in the share price of these two, (that were very close), I wouldn't be inclined to do any more of that now.

[Waltzing]

we think what holds any stock back is the numbers. IE the Financial market reporting statistics.

"with getting extremely difficult resource consents through, (like Waimarie St), and the intellectual property, skills and capabilities behind those processes that have allowed ~ 86% of all their future development plans to be already consented"

big job....

[Beagle]

we think what holds any stock back is the numbers. IE the Financial market reporting statistics.

"with getting extremely difficult resource consents through, (like Waimarie St), and the intellectual property, skills and capabilities behind those processes that have allowed ~ 86% of all their future development plans to be already consented"

big job....

Most people have no idea how hard it is. I am a professional trustee for a client trying to get resource consent for a development on some land that is covered by the Auckland Unitary plan as having an "outstanding natural feature" overlay. To call the process "exceptionally challenging, frustrating, time consuming and massively expensive" would be considerably understating how difficult it is. OCA will do exceptionally well from its Waimarie street development in the future but that is some years away from providing any tangible underlying earnings for the company.

[winner69]

Speak for youself mate :p

That shooting star is still holding this stock back ....

Bloody shooting star ....and beagle selling .....no wonder share price is where it is right now ;)

[Beagle]

Trimming, not selling. I felt uncomfortable being over 15%, (was over 17%) in any one stock....(I like to sleep well) so I fixed that.

I'll be VERY happy if Mav is more correct that I am with his very prescriptive $32.8m underlying profit this half.

Bit cheeky me now having a new range of $25-30m, but I think its prudent not to be too prescriptive and to focus on the longer term.

Big picture, this is a compelling long term growth story trading on a PE in the early teens and a PEG of less than 1.

I got most of my stake in the early 70 cent range so I am a very happy camper.

[Waltzing]

Although some complain it has not yet shown the SUM total of its potential yet. Mr B has hit the NAIL on the head here in whats really holding back the share price. There is still a lot of heavy lifting and building to do before its reached the SUM of its TOTALITY .....:mad ;:

[Beagle]

"Rome wasn't built in a day"...or as they say in the Mainland cheese advertisement, "Good things take time" Some of the young ones on here have probably never seen this classic advertisement https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=qcILD9OJ2wg or this one https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=WbAMg5pQhWQ

[peat]

Bloody shooting star ....and beagle selling .....no wonder share price is where it is right now ;)

exactly

and these two things are not un-related in terms of price action and sentiment etc....

and in case you mean me Waltzing, I am not complaining... just saying it how i see it. I still have a 2/3'rds position and love hearing Mav and Beagle make their predictions on fundamentals.

We will see it clearly when the market starts to agree... the price will move up! But of course some here wont notice that because they ignore price action.

[bullfrog]

'If OCA was indeed worth $1.30 then then it's worth a heck of a lot more now no matter how deep or shallow one's research is.'

Not sure if we can compare with that rise in Jan, I thought that was due to the rising MET tide lifting all ships, rather than a reflection of actual performance?

[winner69]

"Rome wasn't built in a day"...or as they say in the Mainland cheese advertisement, "Good things take time" Some of the young ones on here have probably never seen this classic advertisement https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=qcILD9OJ2wg or this one https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=WbAMg5pQhWQ

...but Rome burned in a day or two.

Went past Mahinapua Hotel a few weeks ago ....made famous cos the cheese ads. Got a t shirt somewhere of it —— bought years ago as a souvenir.

[Waltzing]

Note: when referring to investors who are not happy with a shares performance any statements are not assigned to any individuals and those investors have the option of selling or trading. It appears bull is a successful trader of the stock.

[FatTed]

Beagle do you the percentage that you bought the shares at or the market value to determine how you balance your holdings?

[Beagle]

Market value.

[Lion_graf]

I know you bought early. What's wrong with being slightly overweight.. 17% isnt a lot. Must be somewhere else your looking to park money beagle?

[Joh13]

Hi all,

I just want to say a big thank you to Beagle and Maverick for the information they contribute to this OCA thread it really is invaluable.

I've been a holder of OCA since 2017 and have built up a sizeable position around 800k shares with an average price in the late 70c range, and will continue to add to the position when opportunities arise. In all I think OCA has a lot of further growing to do and will provide at least a solid dividend every year, the EPS growth is just an added bonus.

Just wanted to thank everyone else as well, the forum is top quality.

Joh13

[Maverick]

Hi all,

I just want to say a big thank you to Beagle and Maverick for the information they contribute to this OCA thread it really is invaluable.

I've been a holder of OCA since 2017 and have built up a sizeable position around 800k shares with an average price in the late 70c range, and will continue to add to the position when opportunities arise. In all I think OCA has a lot of further growing to do and will provide at least a solid dividend every year, the EPS growth is just an added bonus.

Just wanted to thank everyone else as well, the forum is top quality.

Joh13
well shucks Joh, I really appreciate the "thanks" and I'm sure Beagle does too.

Thats an impressive pile you've got there too mate. Imagine quadrupling that over 6 - 8 years ....hmmm....no more workie workie for you.

[Beagle]

I know you bought early. What's wrong with being slightly overweight.. 17% isnt a lot. Must be somewhere else your looking to park money beagle?

See post #13982 on page 700 in the HGH thread on 18 November. That was a very emphatic post wherein I made it very clear I thought HGH was an outstanding opportunity around $1.35. ITs still very good value at today's closing price of $1.56 in my opinion.
Doesn't hurt to spread one's nest egg around amongst a number of outstanding opportunities :)

Thanks Joh13 and welcome to the forum.

[Teatree]

Of course the other option is to top up the rest of the portfolio

[RTM]

Beagle do you the percentage that you bought the shares at or the market value to determine how you balance your holdings?

You only use the % you bought the shares at when the current value has seen it has grow past your maximum % in your portfolio and you see good things ahead and you need to justify keeping them. I've had a few in that category....however recent meltdown has corrected things somewhat. :)

[Mudfish]

Right, I don't say much on here but thought I would have a go at articulating my understandings to at least help me clarify my own thinking about OCA as a medium to long term investment.

Firstly, thanks to all, especially Maverick and Beagle for all the freely shared information. Top quality stuff.

As has been said many times, the SP won't really get cracking until OCA shows significant profit growth. This coming first half year report 2021 in January will be critical in the short term to the SP. If it does well, off we go as OCA's model will be seen to be correct and working. If the report is pretty average, it's back to the long term waiting game. I personally believe, this is a fantastic long term share and in 5 years time, will prove a great divi stock that I will likely never sell. However, I also am keen to see it fire up and get going in the short term so am keen to explore the possibilities of how this coming report may look.

Here's my attempt:

Earl has stated, June-July-August sales are 26% up on the same 3 months last year. To me in a very crude way without getting hung up on DMF's, resale margins, PAC fees, etc etc etc, this can be extrapolated as 26% more profit on the bottom line. Very simple thinking I know.
- 24.6m (last years 6 months profit) /2 to get to 3 months = 12.3m
- 12.3m x 26% = 3.198m (that's simple 26% extra profit for June-July-August)
- 12.3m +3.198m = 15.498m (profit )
-15.498m x2 = 30.996m gives the whole 6 month period. Round down to 30m to be conservative.

Therefore the profit is 30m - up from 24.6m same time last year. I'm making assumptions here that the sales rates continue to be strong through the entire 6 months. I can't see any reason why this is not so. 30m gives a EPS of 4.81cps (annualised to 9.62cps - crude and simple thinking again)

Therefore:
PE of 13.5, SP=$130
14.5, SP=$140
15.5, SP=$150 ( I think things should be sitting now but understand the market needs to see the proof)
16.6, SP=$160

Add some more thoughts to this

-If I take your thoughts of 25-30m Beagle (you are much better at this than me) and apply midway at 27.5m. This gives annualised EPS of 8.82cps. At a PE of 15, that's a SP of $1.33.
- Maverick's (also much better than me at this) very specific 32.8m prediciton gives 10.52 EPS. At a PE of 15, that's
SP of $1.58
- Earl's statement of " we are at the point of inflection" is significant in its self. He didn't need to say that.
- Credit Suisse rates OCA at $1.30. Forsyth and Barr rates it at $1.65. Maverick believes they have made some
mistakes and will need to rethink after January. Time will tell, but even if they are right, SP should be between $1.30
and $1.65.
- House prices have boomed recently.
- The light's on at the end of the tunnel regarding Covid risk.

In conclusion, right now there appears to be plenty of indicators pointing towards excellent, if not fabulous growth that will be seen in January. Then the cat will be out of the bag and the market will choose how high to push the PE and of course the SP. If the report is not as good as I/we hope, it's certainly not a disaster but more waiting required.

For the record, I own loads of these shares and intend to hold for a very long time expecting them to become a great little set and forget divi stock in the years to come. Feel free to rip my post apart and destroy my thoughts as you wish.

[trader_jackson]

Right, I don't say much on here but thought I would have a go at articulating my understandings to at least help me clarify my own thinking about OCA as a medium to long term investment.

Firstly, thanks to all, especially Maverick and Beagle for all the freely shared information. Top quality stuff.

As has been said many times, the SP won't really get cracking until OCA shows significant profit growth. This coming first half year report 2021 in January will be critical in the short term to the SP. If it does well, off we go as OCA's model will be seen to be correct and working. If the report is pretty average, it's back to the long term waiting game. I personally believe, this is a fantastic long term share and in 5 years time, will prove a great divi stock that I will likely never sell. However, I also am keen to see it fire up and get going in the short term so am keen to explore the possibilities of how this coming report may look.

Here's my attempt:

Earl has stated, June-July-August sales are 26% up on the same 3 months last year. To me in a very crude way without getting hung up on DMF's, resale margins, PAC fees, etc etc etc, this can be extrapolated as 26% more profit on the bottom line. Very simple thinking I know.
- 24.6m (last years 6 months profit) /2 to get to 3 months = 12.3m
- 12.3m x 26% = 3.198m (that's simple 26% extra profit for June-July-August)
- 12.3m +3.198m = 15.498m (profit )
-15.498m x2 = 30.996m gives the whole 6 month period. Round down to 30m to be conservative.

Therefore the profit is 30m - up from 24.6m same time last year. I'm making assumptions here that the sales rates continue to be strong through the entire 6 months. I can't see any reason why this is not so. 30m gives a EPS of 4.81cps (annualised to 9.62cps - crude and simple thinking again)

Therefore:
PE of 13.5, SP=$130
14.5, SP=$140
15.5, SP=$150 ( I think things should be sitting now but understand the market needs to see the proof)
16.6, SP=$160

Add some more thoughts to this

-If I take your thoughts of 25-30m Beagle (you are much better at this than me) and apply midway at 27.5m. This gives annualised EPS of 8.82cps. At a PE of 15, that's a SP of $1.33.
- Maverick's (also much better than me at this) very specific 32.8m prediciton gives 10.52 EPS. At a PE of 15, that's
SP of $1.58
- Earl's statement of " we are at the point of inflection" is significant in its self. He didn't need to say that.
- Credit Suisse rates OCA at $1.30. Forsyth and Barr rates it at $1.65. Maverick believes they have made some
mistakes and will need to rethink after January. Time will tell, but even if they are right, SP should be between $1.30
and $1.65.
- House prices have boomed recently.
- The light's on at the end of the tunnel regarding Covid risk.

In conclusion, right now there appears to be plenty of indicators pointing towards excellent, if not fabulous growth that will be seen in January. Then the cat will be out of the bag and the market will choose how high to push the PE and of course the SP. If the report is not as good as I/we hope, it's certainly not a disaster but more waiting required.

For the record, I own loads of these shares and intend to hold for a very long time expecting them to become a great little set and forget divi stock in the years to come. Feel free to rip my post apart and destroy my thoughts as you wish.

I would very much like to see a $150 share price right now!!

[Beagle]

Thanks for your post mudfish.
KPMG did a huge report in relation to the MET takeover and noted the sector average PE is 18. No reason why OCA's PE won't rerate to that average over the due course of time as they prove they can grow eps.

[Mudfish]

Thanks for your post mudfish.
KPMG did a huge report in relation to the MET takeover and noted the sector average PE is 18. No reason why OCA's PE won't rerate to that average over the due course of time as they prove they can grow eps.

Hey, cheers Beagle for info. Using a PE of 18 makes the mathematics and SP go crazy with massive upsides. I was actually too nervous to use higher than 15 as it just seems far too good to be true. Makes a man wonder........

[Maverick]

As has been said many times, the SP won't really get cracking until OCA shows significant profit growth. This coming first half year report 2021 in January will be critical in the short term to the SP. If it does well, off we go as OCA's model will be seen to be correct and working. If the report is pretty average, it's back to the long term waiting game. I personally believe, this is a fantastic long term share and in 5 years time, will prove a great divi stock that I will likely never sell. However, I also am keen to see it fire up and get going in the short term so am keen to explore the possibilities of how this coming report may look.

Here's my attempt:

Earl has stated, June-July-August sales are 26% up on the same 3 months last year. To me in a very crude way without getting hung up on DMF's, resale margins, PAC fees, etc etc etc, this can be extrapolated as 26% more profit on the bottom line. Very simple thinking I know.
- 24.6m (last years 6 months profit) /2 to get to 3 months = 12.3m
- 12.3m x 26% = 3.198m (that's simple 26% extra profit for June-July-August)
- 12.3m +3.198m = 15.498m (profit )
-15.498m x2 = 30.996m gives the whole 6 month period. Round down to 30m to be conservative.

Therefore the profit is 30m - up from 24.6m same time last year. I'm making assumptions here that the sales rates continue to be strong through the entire 6 months. I can't see any reason why this is not so. 30m gives a EPS of 4.81cps (annualised to 9.62cps - crude and simple thinking again)

Therefore:
PE of 13.5, SP=$130
14.5, SP=$140
15.5, SP=$150 ( I think things should be sitting now but understand the market needs to see the proof)
16.6, SP=$160

Add some more thoughts to this

-If I take your thoughts of 25-30m Beagle (you are much better at this than me) and apply midway at 27.5m. This gives annualised EPS of 8.82cps. At a PE of 15, that's a SP of $1.33.
- Maverick's (also much better than me at this) very specific 32.8m prediciton gives 10.52 EPS. At a PE of 15, that's
SP of $1.58
- Earl's statement of " we are at the point of inflection" is significant in its self. He didn't need to say that.
- Credit Suisse rates OCA at $1.30. Forsyth and Barr rates it at $1.65. Maverick believes they have made some
mistakes and will need to rethink after January. Time will tell, but even if they are right, SP should be between $1.30
and $1.65.
- House prices have boomed recently.
- The light's on at the end of the tunnel regarding Covid risk.

In conclusion, right now there appears to be plenty of indicators pointing towards excellent, if not fabulous growth that will be seen in January. Then the cat will be out of the bag and the market will choose how high to push the PE and of course the SP. If the report is not as good as I/we hope, it's certainly not a disaster but more waiting required.


That's an excellent post Mudfish,
Great to see a lot of good thinking going on there.
Earl said SALES where up 26% and I think that should be only applied to the "new sales" or " new sales profit "of last HY , not "overall profit" as you have applied it to. Last years HY "new sales profit "was $17.7 m for the 6 months.
I have assumed that Earl`s comment on "sales" means NEW Sales (not resales) and is the total $value of sales, not volume units sold. Gee this gets messy when you think about it too hard.

I've recently looked up the sales by REINZ in Auckland for the following 3 months and those are even stronger than the 3 months Earl speaks of.
Whatever it exactly all means has got be very good.

I think your short term expectations of a share price around $1.50-$1.55 is spot on.

PE of 18 one day...definitely.

[winner69]

Truly astounding latest property stats

HPI at NOVEMBER up 3% from October and 9% in last 3 months

https://reinz.co.nz/Media/Default/St...er%202020.docx

[wagwan]

Hey, cheers Beagle for info. Using a PE of 18 makes the mathematics and SP go crazy with massive upsides. I was actually too nervous to use higher than 15 as it just seems far too good to be true. Makes a man wonder........

If utility stocks such as Meridian and Mercury trade at PE of circa 41x and 44x respectively (admittedly based on historical EPS), then why shouldn't the likes of OCA trade at 18?? Matter of time one would think?

Yield not materially different (MEL ~2.5%, MCY 2.3% based on current SP and historical dividend vs OCA ~2.6%. Difference here being, as have said previously, I like that OCA pays dividend from net OCF ($0.0161 OCF/share, $0.04 dividend/share), whereas utilities often pay dividend through cash reserves or debt raised (CEN being worst, $0.059 OCF/share, $0.39 dividend/share), so question sustainability of that yield, even if it is good in interim. All numbers there trailing / historical aside from SP.

While operate in different sectors, large similarities as well - big balance sheet / large fixed asset base, ability to leverage this, relatively reliable cashflow, wider demographic and economic trends support etc.

[Beagle]

Full REINZ report is here https://reinz.co.nz/Media/Default/Statistic%20Documents/2020/November/REINZ%20Monthly%20Property%20Report%20-%20November%202020.pdf

PE of 18, (the sector average) is only a matter of time.

[winner69]

Full REINZ report is here https://reinz.co.nz/Media/Default/Statistic%20Documents/2020/November/REINZ%20Monthly%20Property%20Report%20-%20November%202020.pdf

PE of 18, (the sector average) is only a matter of time.

Hope so with your PE of 18 ....means sum others will get to 30 to maintain relativity

I note that OCA at PE of 19 on trailing earnings .....increased F21 profits must already be priced in ;)

[JW Invests]

Truly astounding latest property stats

HPI at NOVEMBER up 3% from October and 9% in last 3 months

https://reinz.co.nz/Media/Default/St...er%202020.docx

Winner, should do wonders for the revaluation gain for 1H21. Looking at the FY20 report, change in fair value of investment property for the:

12 month period ending May 2019 was a gain of 46.6 mil, while the REINZ May 2019 HPI was up 1.8% nationwide for the 12 month period;
12 month period ending May 2020 was a loss of 21.7mil, while the REINZ May 2020 HPI was up 7.9% nationwide for the 12 month period.

We now also know that REINZ October 2020 HPI: +7.7% nationwide (3 months), and November up another 3%.

As others have mentioned on this forum already, May 2020 revals were based on CBRE's April 2020 forecast. If last year's numbers are something to go by which was a relatively flat year in the property market, expect to see a big upward revaluation in 1H21 when residential properties are going gangbusters.

Price to NTA (as at 8/12/20):
RYM: 3.06
SUM: 2.22
ARV: 1.27
OCA: 1.37

Reversing last years loss of 21.7mil + a gain of 50mil in 1H21 (being conservative) should increase NTA by 10 cents per share easily. This puts OCA at a price to NTA of 1.24. Perhaps my estimate of 70mil revaluation is too conservative...

Disc: OCA is 20% of my portfolio

[Greekwatchdog]

22nd Jan half year due. Lock it in..

[Beagle]

UBS report just out initiating coverage with a BUY. Price target $1.50 and calling it that underlying profit should double from FY20 to FY24.
Projecting underlying earnings per share of 18 cps in FY25 and general expectation that we will see multiple expansion up to the medium for the sector, just over 18.
Market always a forward looking animal so my medium term expectation is that sometime late in 2024, My medium term forecast is that 4 years from now the shares will be trading on a forward PE of ~ 18 expecting ~ 18 cps in earnings = expected price range of $3.00 - $3.50.

[dompf]

UBS report just out initiating coverage with a BUY. Price target $1.50 and calling it that underlying profit should double from FY20 to FY24.
Projecting underlying earnings per share of 18 cps in FY25 and general expectation that we will see multiple expansion up to the medium for the sector, just over 18.
Market always a forward looking animal so my medium term expectation is that sometime late in 2024, My medium term forecast is that 4 years from now the shares will be trading on a forward PE of ~ 18 expecting ~ 18 cps in earnings = expected price range of $3.00 - $3.50.

This is awesome thank you Beagle; I’m in this one for next 5 years; my projection is a medium 29m on result Jan 22nd. If PE goes to 18 on this share then look out. Real estate Market is still red hot; so those developments that are upcoming look very very very good for future pipeline.


Appreciate everyone that puts up their workings on here; Mudfish your maths is so damn similar to mine so thank you. And Mavs and Beagles are way above what I can do but appears to be a very good long bet and thank you all contributors

Happy holder on this one GL all.

[winner69]

UBS report just out initiating coverage with a BUY. Price target $1.50 and calling it that underlying profit should double from FY20 to FY24.
Projecting underlying earnings per share of 18 cps in FY25 and general expectation that we will see multiple expansion up to the medium for the sector, just over 18.
Market always a forward looking animal so my medium term expectation is that sometime late in 2024, My medium term forecast is that 4 years from now the shares will be trading on a forward PE of ~ 18 expecting ~ 18 cps in earnings = expected price range of $3.00 - $3.50.

Love your $3.00-$3.50 expectations - thought you might have stretched it $4.00 though

Good thing if that happens SUM will be $29-$33 and will have continued to outperform OCA

Seems I cant lose as a bob each way at the moment (hedging my bets the experts say)

[Baa_Baa]

Love your $3.00-$3.50 expectations - thought you might have stretched it $4.00 though

Good thing if that happens SUM will be $29-$33 and will have continued to outperform OCA

Seems I cant lose as a bob each way at the moment (hedging my bets the experts say)

Have to look at the development pipeline as well, all that stuff that's already consented, it's complicated trying to factor in the 'onboarding' of new developments but imo over the next five years OCA will significantly close the gap on all metrics against RYM and SUM. Haven't given much thought to ARV.

Anyway, it's not a race, the whole sector looks to be a good option for investors over the long term. I think it's too easy get too focused on the excitement of the next big capital gain which tends to de-focus on accumulating something we might have no intention of ever selling.