OCA - Oceania Group - retirement villages

[Beagle]

They probably envious of Rymans debt to equity ratio and trying to fix it

More leverage tends to lead to higher multiples in this sector

Good strategy

I need another coffee to fix my spelling. Beagle is a low performance mutt on a Monday morning lol

Gearing looks sensible to me. This debt raise is for more site acquisitions fueling more growth, you read it here first !

[dompf]

I need another coffee to fix my spelling. Beagle is a low performance mutt on a Monday morning lol

Gearing looks sensible to me. This debt raise is for more site acquisitions fueling more growth, you read it here first !

I think its a great idea to grow the business with cheap debt; Stockton must've known this is coming - I wonder if he'll use it to dump the rest of his holdings.

[Beagle]

I think its a great idea to grow the business with cheap debt; Stockton must've known this is coming - I wonder if he'll use it to dump the rest of his holdings.

I do too and locking in 7 year funding at 3.2% makes profoundly good common sense. Share buy-back of over 3 million shares coming over September too. I reckon he'll sell some of his remaining holding into the underlying strength coming from that.

[Mudfish]

Here's a thought from one person in the ranks of the less educated in all things OCA. I do have a basic understanding of the OCA model but do struggle with the finer details, I would consider this to be fairly 'typical' of an OCA investor. Here's my thoughts on today's bond information from a the point of view of a 'typical' investor. The bond issue itself is a good idea, more cash for growing and creates more safety if needed. I can't see any new information as it's all the old data as I would expect, nothing to see there. The cool part is the presentation part looks super professional. It's only a look but that matters to me. Also, just seeing Jarden, Westpac, ANZ, and Craigs all lumped in with this gives the vibe of professional competence. Therefore, as a 'normal' investor when I read the info today, everything just has a professional, meaty, winner of a company persona about it. It just 'looks' like OCA is maturing into one of the big boys on the block. I will be super interested if this helps SP movement over this week. I have heaps of shares so hope so.

[winner69]

Here's a thought from one person in the ranks of the less educated in all things OCA. I do have a basic understanding of the OCA model but do struggle with the finer details, I would consider this to be fairly 'typical' of an OCA investor. Here's my thoughts on today's bond information from a the point of view of a 'typical' investor. The bond issue itself is a good idea, more cash for growing and creates more safety if needed. I can't see any new information as it's all the old data as I would expect, nothing to see there. The cool part is the presentation part looks super professional. It's only a look but that matters to me. Also, just seeing Jarden, Westpac, ANZ, and Craigs all lumped in with this gives the vibe of professional competence. Therefore, as a 'normal' investor when I read the info today, everything just has a professional, meaty, winner of a company persona about it. It just 'looks' like OCA is maturing into one of the big boys on the block. I will be super interested if this helps SP movement over this week. I have heaps of shares so hope so.

Much the same presentation as previous bond issue (and same organisers etc) ....and the shares went up when that happened

No particular reason by it should be that way but as you are experiencing it's possibly the good vibes that gives punters that confidence

[Snow Leopard]

I do too and locking in 7 year funding at 3.2% makes profoundly good common sense. Share buy-back of over 3 million shares coming over September too. I reckon he'll sell some of his remaining holding into the underlying strength coming from that.

Perhaps you should [re]read the buyback notice. It is not actually an on-market transaction!

[Mudfish]

"it's possibly the good vibes that gives punters that confidence" Exactly the point right there Winner. Cheers

[BlackPeter]

There's an old saying, (not sure who came up with it), whenever a company does a bond issue, buy their shares instead.

Good example was last year. Have a look at their share price performance in the month after they issued the cleansing notice on 25 September 2020 in preparation for the previous bond issue. The shares jumped 35% in less than a month !! Today they issued the cleansing notice for this bond issue. History set to repeat ?


12903

As an aside, from a TA perspective notice how the shares recently bounced off the 100 day moving average support line and have just broken up through the 30 day support line.

Not sure how you came up with $80m underlying but what I have come around to realising with OCA its all about their total comprehensive income.

Well, well ... 35% on top of todays opening price of $1.51 would be $2.04! If history is repeating itself - here is the $2 handle coming :) ;

[Beagle]

Thanks for pointing that out sl

Disc: I was thinking about buying some bonds but I thought, what the heck, the dividend yield is probably better and the capital gain to come in the next 7 years is likely to be really spectacular so I bought some more shares instead.

[bottomfeeder]

Thanks for pointing that out sl

Disc: I was thinking about buying some bonds but I thought, what the heck, the dividend yield is probably better and the capital gain to come in the next 7 years is likely to be really spectacular so I bought some more shares instead.

Yes, I was toying with getting some bonds as well. Better than Term Deposits. Have to diversify some investments, even if you hold some in low returns. But 7 year fixed interest?
If OCA pulls it off, good on them. Below the inflation rate, and certainly below the future inflation rate. I hope they don't waste the bond proceeds. Share purchase better idea as assets are reasonably secure.

[Ferg]

I have applied. The way I look at it is that if I can get 3.x% then that is at least 3 times more than I am getting now on term deposits. So why not put up to (or less than) 1/3 of spare funds into that and then play with (or sit on) the rest?

[bottomfeeder]

The SP and NTA, will be looking good at 31 March, as there will be more certainty regarding the development and absorption of the Waterford property into the company scheme of things by then. High growth and high inflation are a good catalyst for a property owning company, that earns subsidiary income from care. Only the thought of Covid holding back this SP.

[bottomfeeder]

I have applied. The way I look at it is that if I can get 3.x% then that is at least 3 times more than I am getting now on term deposits. So why not put up to (or less than) 1/3 of spare funds into that and then play with (or sit on) the rest?

Makes sense, but in a years or two, the interest rates on TD may be in the 3% or over. You will have no choice but to hold to maturity as the market value of the bonds decrease based on yield. Having said that can't hurt to have some bonds, if the bank goes bust. Argh what to do?

Addendum, talked me into it. Got an allocation from Jarden Direct. Looked at the yield available on fixed interest and bonds, still very low. May be a quick buck to be made when they first are available on the bond market. Or if I have to hold till maturity still a secure investment. Have to park some of the proceeds of my ZEL takeover windfall somewhere.

[Beagle]

I have applied. The way I look at it is that if I can get 3.x% then that is at least 3 times more than I am getting now on term deposits. So why not put up to (or less than) 1/3 of spare funds into that and then play with (or sit on) the rest?

5 year rate with BNZ is 2.0% and I am sure you'd get a bit higher if you offered to lock in for 7 years but I for one think its safer in OCA.

Its an interesting conundrum for sure. On one hand its perhaps unwise to have everything in equities and yet on the other what's the point in investing in bonds if you know the after tax return is significantly lower than inflation ?

[GTM 3442]

5 year rate with BNZ is 2.0% and I am sure you'd get a bit higher if you offered to lock in for 7 years but I for one think its safer in OCA.

Its an interesting conundrum for sure. On one hand its perhaps unwise to have everything in equities and yet on the other what's the point in investing in bonds if you know the after tax return is significantly lower than inflation ?

Good question, plenty of answers.


For me, the answer is that there is more to any investment than simply the after-tax return. Liquidity, security, income, consistency, political risk, and other factors are also in play. So it’s also about diversification.

Diversification is simply a strategy for reducing the risk of capital or income loss. But it isn’t the only strategy to which I subscribe and which I implement across the portfolio.

Diversification runs across asset classes, as well as across individual investments within an asset class, and it’s diversification that means that I happily hold OCA shares as well as OCA bonds.

The shares have the potential for a dividend yield improving over time, while the bonds deliver consistency of yield. However the bonds will continue to pay interest should the dividend be cut or suspended.

Neither may seem likely at the moment, although I do see a degree of political risk around the occupation-rights model prevalent in the listed retirement village operators.

I believe that that’s more likely to impact the shares’ dividend and price than the bond’s coupon payments.

I'll never diversify myself rich. . .

[Snow Leopard]

5 year rate with BNZ is 2.0% and I am sure you'd get a bit higher if you offered to lock in for 7 years but I for one think its safer in OCA.

Its an interesting conundrum for sure. On one hand its perhaps unwise to have everything in equities and yet on the other what's the point in investing in bonds if you know the after tax return is significantly lower than inflation ?

You can earn 90% plus on CAKE, over 100% on BANANA, similar on MACARON.

I love crypto-foods. But still own some (actually a lot of) OCA.
Diversity.

[bottomfeeder]

I'll never diversify myself rich. . .

Probably never diversify broke either.

[dobby41]

I'll never diversify myself rich. . .

Probably never diversify broke either.

I think you can diversify yourself rich - just not rich quick.

[Joh13]

A large over subscription will show confidence in OCA as a business, which bodes well for equity investors in the future.

Looks like they'll pay down some bank debt, as they suggest, it's too restrictive to borrowing for future growth, due to the covenants (50% LVR & Interest Coverage Ratio > 2.0). It will be interesting to see how much they use for acquisitions, $30M Bank debt, $70M Acquisition and development?

How will they fund further acquisitions for growth and pay down debt?? Follow SUM, and do a third Bond issue? or tap into equity investors?

Exciting times ahead.

[Curly]

Pushing on towards an all time high. Good times ahead with bond issue, share accumulation and announcements eminent.

[Beagle]

Been reflecting on this and future growth prospects, shares v bonds. I think Covid and its variants is a game changer. There's highly likely to be a heck of a lot of elderly folks now absolutely craving the security and support of living in a gated retirement community. The penetration rate of retirement community living is going to grow very quickly indeed from here in the future. Already we have recently seen market evidence of this with SUM having new villages completely sold out even before they're built and long wait lists for other villages, (something they have never experienced before since they listed a decade ago). These same market dynamics will be playing out with demand for OCA villages too.

Our new CEO clearly has his eye on more land acquisitions and I expect the build rate will be scaled up significantly in the years ahead to meet what I think will be rampant demand. On a 7 year view I would be very surprised if we didn't get at least 15% per annum average annual profit growth which if we stick with the current metrics and proximity to the rest of the sector, (closest to NTA and arguably the lowest PE ratio) that should lead to a share price north of $4 seven years from now ($1.59 x 15% growth compounded for 7 years = $4.23)....or you can invest in the bonds and you'll probably get a return after tax of less than the average inflation rate and at the end of the 7 years period the capital you invested is likely to have diminished in value in real inflation adjusted terms.

Further, the average annual dividend rate of the shares over the next 7 years is going to be a lot higher than 3.2% based on an investment at today's share price.

If OCA moves towards the average metrics of the sector in terms of price to NTA the price could be substantially higher than $4 seven years from now, perhaps close to $7.

It has been said that annual compounding growth is the eighth wonder of the world.

That sums up the prospects for shares v bonds as I see them.

[Old mate]

Pretty big volume today. Wonder if Stockton dumped a few more on that rise.

[winner69]

OCA share price did well in August ....... but SUM share price did better

Updated this chart as another month passes us by

OCA might have more cheerleaders than SUM on Sharetrader but the market per se continues to regard SUM more highly

No point of inflection here

[winner69]

Hoping like hell that OCA reaches a new all time high today ...only 1 cent away

Previous all time high was $1.60 back in early Februray

SUM was $12.32 then

So in last six months OCA share price gone nowhere .... zilch increase .... while SUM share price up 23%

Things have to change one day don't they?

[kiwico]

Hoping like hell that OCA reaches a new all time high today ...only 1 cent away

Previous all time high was $1.60 back in early Februray

Buy some more and make it happen!

[winner69]

Buy some more and make it happen!

Are you … I regret holding as many as I do …but diversification (even in a sector) comes at a cost

[YoungBull]

Hoping like hell that OCA reaches a new all time high today ...only 1 cent away

Previous all time high was $1.60 back in early Februray

SUM was $12.32 then

So in last six months OCA share price gone nowhere .... zilch increase .... while SUM share price up 23%

Things have to change one day don't they?

But the buying down at 1.40’s was amazing! I’ll take another drop any day, can’t believe it was that close to its NTA.

[Baa_Baa]

But the buying down at 1.40’s was amazing! I’ll take another drop any day, can’t believe it was that close to its NTA.

Close to NTA? It fell down to around half of NTA during Covid 2020, bottoming out at $0.38 ... that was amazing! Congratulations to savvy shareholders who got a piece of that.

[Beagle]

Hoping like hell that OCA reaches a new all time high today ...only 1 cent away

Previous all time high was $1.60 back in early Februray

SUM was $12.32 then

So in last six months OCA share price gone nowhere .... zilch increase .... while SUM share price up 23%

Things have to change one day don't they?

Yes they do and they will. I'm calling it, this hits $2 sometime in 2022 if not earlier.

[YoungBull]

Close to NTA? It fell down to around half of NTA during Covid 2020, bottoming out at $0.38 ... that was amazing! Congratulations to savvy shareholders who got a piece of that.

Yes of course I bought there too, but the discussion was regarding the recent stagnation in SP.

[Bjauck]

OCA share price did well in August ....... but SUM share price did better

Updated this chart as another month passes us by

OCA might have more cheerleaders than SUM on Sharetrader but the market per se continues to regard SUM more highly

No point of inflection here The trend chart for OCA cf. RYM may be more in OCA's favour?

I had also gradually diversified out of my top heavy holding in SUM into OCA (& ARV) - and steeled myself to add a small extra holding during last years low point. I had previously diversified into SUM from RYM, and had been forced to quit MET and add to other retirement holdings. So for me diversification has had a neutral cost. My investment in the sector in general over the long term has outperformed though.

[couta1]

Yes they do and they will. I'm calling it, this hits $2 sometime in 2022 if not earlier. Best buy in the sector IMO, as great as SUM has been over the last year you will get a greater return on this one over the next 5 yrs. SUM will soon become a long heavy freight train like RYM has in due course. Ask yourself if you think SUM or RYM will get to $30 before this gets to $3.

[Blue Skies]

[QUOTE=couta1;906010]Best buy in the sector IMO, as great as SUM has been over the last year you will get a greater return on this one over the next 5 yrs. SUM will soon become a long heavy freight train like RYM has in due course.[/QUOTE


Good to see esp for us v patient long term holders. Went heavily into OCA a few years back around 1.00, shuddered watching it drop to .47 on 23/3/20 during the first Covid outbreak, but held on through believing patience would eventually be rewarded & great to see some healthy gains & SP gaining some momentum now.
Hold SUM long term also.

[winner69]

Yes they do and they will. I'm calling it, this hits $2 sometime in 2022 if not earlier.

Hope so …and SUM over 20 bucks appeals as well

[Curly]

Once again sp stalls after showing early promise. Should be around $1.70 now based on Arvida’s sp. Patience needed I guess .

[Beagle]

Once again sp stalls after showing early promise. Should be around $1.70 now based on Arvida’s sp. Patience needed I guess .

Yes there's a big feed coming but patience is required.

12915

[Joshuatree]

Once again sp stalls after showing early promise. Should be around $1.70 now based on Arvida’s sp. Patience needed I guess .

Stalled!!?:eek2: At a new high with the 2nd highest vol in a year in the last few days. Go easy on the coffee:)

[bottomfeeder]

There's a scenario baking on the SKY thread that OCA bond raise is to pay for purchase of SKY buildings, at some exorbitant price. I think the funds will be used to develop Waterford property. Can't have too much on the boil at the same time.

[dompf]

There's a scenario baking on the SKY thread that OCA bond raise is to pay for purchase of SKY buildings, at some exorbitant price. I think the funds will be used to develop Waterford property. Can't have too much on the boil at the same time.

My money is on something new for development.

[jimdog31]

There's a scenario baking on the SKY thread that OCA bond raise is to pay for purchase of SKY buildings, at some exorbitant price. I think the funds will be used to develop Waterford property. Can't have too much on the boil at the same time.

OCA's exact words included, so its safe to say its a bit of both

The proposed bond issue will:

- Help facilitate further growth, including the current pipeline and potential acquisiton of new development sits (brownfield and/or greenfield)

[winner69]

OCA's exact words included, so its safe to say its a bit of both

The proposed bond issue will:

- Help facilitate further growth, including the current pipeline and potential acquisiton of new development sits (brownfield and/or greenfield)




Seems that that SKY building is a goer

[Curly]

If so is Mkt saying they are paying to much?

[winner69]

Is the Sky HQ a good site for Oceania

Seems a done deal on the other thread

[jimdog31]

Is the Sky HQ a good site for Oceania

Seems a done deal on the other thread

https://www.colliers.co.nz/en-nz/news/the-one-to-watch-sky-tv-buildings-for-sale

What ya reckon Beagle? Bear in mind this listing doesnt include the sheds at the back which have since "been added" for "targeted buyers" on the 23rd of August (date of bond announcement by OCA)

[Rawz]

The location of sky hq is in a not so desirable part of town.

I thought OCA aimed at the premium end of the market?

[jimdog31]

The location of sky hq is in a not so desirable part of town.

I thought OCA aimed at the premium end of the market?

Um, anywhere in central auckland is desirable no?

I doubt theres 3 ha available anywhere more desirable

[Rawz]

https://i.imgur.com/pfm7F4c.jpg

It’s worth heaps and sky will clean up, but doubt the buyer is oca.

[Brain]

The location of sky hq is in a not so desirable part of town.

I thought OCA aimed at the premium end of the market?

Totally agree . When I think of OCA I think of a highly desirable location like The Sands on Browns Bay Beach.

[Rawz]

You're right, the buyer is Ryman. Waiting for your counter bid.

I can’t see any retirement village being built there. More like mixed housing and a couple of playgrounds with the usual dairy, fish n chips and green grocer in a strip.

Williams Corp or one of those guys

[jimdog31]

I can’t see any retirement village being built there. More like mixed housing and a couple of playgrounds with the usual dairy, fish n chips and green grocer in a strip.

Williams Corp or one of those guys

summerset heritage park is 300m away as the crow flies?

they get it wrong?

https://www.summerset.co.nz/find-a-village/auckland/summerset-at-heritage-park/

[Beagle]

https://www.colliers.co.nz/en-nz/news/the-one-to-watch-sky-tv-buildings-for-sale

What ya reckon Beagle? Bear in mind this listing doesnt include the sheds at the back which have since "been added" for "targeted buyers" on the 23rd of August (date of bond announcement by OCA)

I think some people are trying to fly a kite for reasons best known to themselves but are perhaps fairly obvious. I know the area, its low rent and totally at the other end of the property spectrum compared to sites like their one's at Meadowbank, The Sands at Browns Bay or Wairmarie St in St Heliers. My 2 cents.

[Beagle]

Haven't you heard, it's hot as lava right now!

Oh my goodness, well if the real estate agent says that then it must be true...where's my Tui ;)

[jimdog31]

I'm trying to get my head around this as I'm not too familiar with this company but...

They raised money in March and also last year. Their recent annual report says they have good capital for growth and don't need any more money but...

Then all of a sudden they consider a bond offering for $75m, on the same day that interest in the Sky property was due.

Sky doesn't even bother adverting the property.

The bond is all of a sudden green-lit a week later.

Obviously, something came up recently which they couldn't wait and they had to buy.

$75m is about what the Sky property is worth. What else could it be for? Surely there are listing out there? Where are they?

Don't give me all this BS about the Sky property not being ripe for a rest home. The listing particular says it's ideal place. Real Estate agents don't lie, do they?

ahem, some real estate agents give other real estate agents a bad name….

Mr Lavalava, is prob the equivalent of a second hand car salesman…..

My experience in commercial real estate is the higher the value, the more distinguished the agent.

Colliers in this particular example is more akin to say a higher end european dealer.

At this end of the market, the advertising will be on point.

Just my 2c

[Quantitative Easing]

Yup there is a good chance that Oceania may buy SKY HQ in Mt Wellington. Great parcel of land, centrally located Ellerslie fringe and easy access to Auckland hospital. Just need to be rezoned but that shouldn't be a biggie.

[Joh13]

If OCA does acquire Sky's real estate, I hope they get it for a deal. I guess it comes down to which company is more desperate? OCA doesn't need to buy it, they probably have other options. So I would hate to see them pay something ridiculous for it.

Could just be a coincidence.

[Beagle]

This is the new Sky thread, we're taking over this place, lol.

Isn't one thread enough for your repetitive speculation ?

[Joh13]

Swimming in debt?? Maybe you need to do a little more analysis on OCA.

[850man]

The neighborhood where Sky is located is not a match for a retirement village, well not OCA's target market anyway. Just my 2 cents

[mistaTea]

The neighborhood where Sky is located is not a match for a retirement village, well not OCA's target market anyway. Just my 2 cents

Don’t be such a racist mate.

Lovely people live nearby…

Covid-19 coronavirus Delta outbreak: Family transferred after MIQ meltdown
https://www.nzherald.co.nz/nz/news/article.cfm?c_id=1&objectid=12469495

[850man]

Don’t be such a racist mate.

Lovely people live nearby…

Covid-19 coronavirus Delta outbreak: Family transferred after MIQ meltdown
https://www.nzherald.co.nz/nz/news/article.cfm?c_id=1&objectid=12469495

Nothing racist in my comment at all

[Quantitative Easing]

The neighborhood where Sky is located is not a match for a retirement village, well not OCA's target market anyway. Just my 2 cents


Mate this is Auckland. Any land of that size in the Auckland Isthmus is a golden nugget. I know Mt Wellington can get a bit dodgy but it's so close to Ellerslie...Ellerslie has come a long way in the last 10-20 years. Now it's a premier suburb.

[winner69]

Maybe Stockton had a big bust up over whether this Sky site was a goer and said to himself ‘heck if you guys have been seduced into thinking that site is awesome I’m out of here’

That’s the hidden meaning in “Oceania seeking a Group General Manager Property and Development with a broader set of skills which are necessary to focus on new opportunities, identifying acquisitions and innovations in Oceania’s building designs to meet its sustainability goals and the needs of our residents of the future.”

[jimdog31]

Maybe Stockton had a big bust up over whether this Sky site was a goer and said to himself ‘heck if you guys have been seduced into thinking that site is awesome I’m out of here’

That’s the hidden meaning in “Oceania seeking a Group General Manager Property and Development with a broader set of skills which are necessary to focus on new opportunities, identifying acquisitions and innovations in Oceania’s building designs to meet its sustainability goals and the needs of our residents of the future.”

Not too mention the new CEO probably wants to get an acquisition/development on the board. You could be onto something here

Stockton resigned 10 days before SKT did a u-turn and said they were now actively considering selling the whole site.

[Greekwatchdog]

They brought new land and a Village that can also be added too just after previous CEO left.

[jimdog31]

They brought new land and a Village that can also be added too just after previous CEO left.

Thanks - Whereabouts was that one?

[Greekwatchdog]

From 23/03 - Oceania Healthcare Limited (NZX/ASX: OCA) (Oceania) today announced its plans to raise approximately NZ$100 million to fund the acquisition of a premium retirement village, Waterford on Hobsonville Point, and its existing leased facility and adjacent development land in Franklin through a fully underwritten NZ$80 million placement of new shares (Placement) and a non-underwritten retail offer (Retail Offer) of up to NZ$20 million, with the ability to accept oversubscriptions at Oceania’s discretion (together, the Equity Raise).

[jimdog31]

From 23/03 - Oceania Healthcare Limited (NZX/ASX: OCA) (Oceania) today announced its plans to raise approximately NZ$100 million to fund the acquisition of a premium retirement village, Waterford on Hobsonville Point, and its existing leased facility and adjacent development land in Franklin through a fully underwritten NZ$80 million placement of new shares (Placement) and a non-underwritten retail offer (Retail Offer) of up to NZ$20 million, with the ability to accept oversubscriptions at Oceania’s discretion (together, the Equity Raise).

Thanks, so would we say that Franklin (pukekohe) is a premium location? they obviously try and do high quality developments.

[winner69]

Pattison told Stockton that’s one cool site in Mt Wellington …the next big thing in Auckland. Go get it …we could be build hundreds and hundreds of units on it.and even have space for a big care centre.

Stockton said ‘I know the area, its low rent and totally at the other end of the property spectrum compared to sites like our other ones (exactly like beagle said) and Brent if you want to go down the community / council housing path I’m out of here.”

That’s when Pattison told him he’s an old codger so please go and said he’d get somebody who’s not stuck in his old ways and can bring some new and innovative thinking to Oceania.

[BlackPeter]

This is the new Sky thread, we're taking over this place, lol.

Looks like you are mainly talking with yourself. Do you really need to do this on this forum?

[Beagle]

Don’t be such a racist mate.

Lovely people live nearby…

Covid-19 coronavirus Delta outbreak: Family transferred after MIQ meltdown
https://www.nzherald.co.nz/nz/news/article.cfm?c_id=1&objectid=12469495

:lol: :lol:

[mistaTea]

:lol: :lol:

Just a lovely and very reasonable demographic that I am sure a lot of elderly people would enjoy living close to...

https://www.nzherald.co.nz/nz/covid-19-delta-outbreak-woman-in-miq-who-had-public-meltdown-over-pizza-says-she-regrets-nothing/FP3VAJVNST5FSUV6ZHFAHJCRDM/

And the state of our military personnel! That silly so-and-so should have received the old "chudo chop" without delay!

[peat]

I mean they watch Sky all day...just lol

so funny
welcome Ogg !



Do you really need to do this on this forum?

lol at the people who think they own this thread

post up a storm Ogg. a bit of speculation is totally appropriate to this forum.

[Beagle]

^^ Surely you're not so desperate for something to read in lockdown that you want to read endless baseless speculation about exactly the same thing on multiple threads ? :bored::bored:

[Not The Chosen One]

^^ Surely you're not so desperate for something to read in lockdown that you want to read endless baseless speculation about exactly the same thing on multiple threads ? :bored::bored:

Or we could judge people based on where they live just like you do. I know what's worse, do you?

[peat]

^^ Surely you're not so desperate for something to read in lockdown that you want to read endless baseless speculation about exactly the same thing on multiple threads ? :bored::bored:

not at all
I'm currently 3/4 of the way through The History of South Africa so plenty of variety in my reading. https://www.loot.co.za/product/leonard-thompson-a-history-of-south-africa/jwnz-2916-g390

I limit my time here... but find the construction of the theories amusing.... who knows eh?

[mistaTea]

^^ Surely you're not so desperate for something to read in lockdown that you want to read endless baseless speculation about exactly the same thing on multiple threads ? :bored::bored:

Not sure we can say that the speculation is entirely baseless...but definitely repetitive!

[peat]

Don’t be such a racist mate.

Lovely people live nearby…

Covid-19 coronavirus Delta outbreak: Family transferred after MIQ meltdown
https://www.nzherald.co.nz/nz/news/article.cfm?c_id=1&objectid=12469495

I would say she is representing Mothers much more than she is representing Pasifika.

[mistaTea]

I would say she is representing Mothers much more than she is representing Pasifika.

Oh yes, I plan to nominate her for Mother of the Year.

Fantastic role model.

[wagwan]

Zero valued added on here for about 3 pages. Should we get back to posting if it will add value? Chat rooms surely can be found somewhere else.

[peat]

Oh yes, I plan to nominate her for Mother of the Year.

Fantastic role model.

she isnt a role model ? why would you think she is meant to be?
she's not a sport star (not that they should be considered role models either) or a famous person.

she's a mother with concerns for her children. Havent you seen how Mothers get when you cross their babies. Its perfectly normal if not totally acceptable behaviour.

[peat]

There has been zero valued added on here for about 3 pages. Should we get back to posting if it will add value? Chat rooms surely can be found somewhere else.

says the guy with 34 posts. lol

[mistaTea]

she isnt a role model ? why would you think she is meant to be?
she's not a sport star (not that they should be considered role models either) or a famous person.

she's a mother with concerns for her children. Havent you seen how Mothers get when you cross their babies. Its perfectly normal if not totally acceptable behaviour.

I am in agreement with you!

I wish my mommy could swear like that at the authorities, throw stuff around and put others at risk of catching Covid because our pizza was a bit bent out of shape!

I would be bound to have a very rich and prosperous life with such a wonderful Defender of my rights like that.

[wagwan]

says the guy with 34 posts. lol

Exactly.

You obviously don't recognise the irony of that comment.

[RTM]

Exactly.

You obviously don't recognise the irony in your post.

Yeah Mr T....please keep it serious ! :)

[peat]

Exactly.

You obviously don't recognise the irony in your post.

wow recognising irony - does that make you clever -

just for you mate
12920
After the collapse of price due to Covid fears over more than a year ago we have created a channel of S/R between 1.35 and 1.60.
Also forming a rising wedge currently which could cause a setback at some point to find support again. Rising through 1.60 will indicate further gains , until then play the channel.

[wagwan]

wow recognising irony - does that make you clever -

just for you mate
12920
After the collapse of price due to Covid fears over more than a year ago we have created a channel of S/R between 1.35 and 1.60.
Also forming a rising wedge currently which could cause a setback at some point to find support again. Rising through 1.60 will indicate further gains , until then play the channel.

Not really on the irony front

Like the chart and agree. Value.

[peat]

I am in agreement with you!

I wish my mommy could swear like that at the authorities, throw stuff around and put others at risk of catching Covid because our pizza was a bit bent out of shape!

mate it was delayed food and meds for hours that triggered her.... not bent pizza - sheesh!
look i think she came across as a bit entitled but we all need to know better than to cross a Momma bear!

[850man]

Back to topic please folks or take it here https://www.sharetrader.co.nz/showthread.php?11704-Coronavirus

[peat]

12921
Zooming in a bit closer we see closer supports as per green lines. lots of strong blue candles
Rising volume (not that much but some) bolli's are widening. RSI not extreme.. tho is actually showing divergence from the mid July peak.
so yeh mostly good afai can see. but wouldnt add right now myself. esp if holding a decent parcel. keep some ammo dry as always

I'm increasingly thinking that value is less useful as a strategy these days. not un-useful , value is good if it is true value and you have a long horizon.
But quality and momentum seem more useful. Not that I'd buy Ryman either but look at EBO and MFT how they just defy value analysis.

[mistaTea]

mate it was delayed food and meds for hours that triggered her.... not bent pizza - sheesh!
look i think she came across as a bit entitled but we all need to know better than to cross a Momma bear!

I couldn't agree more mate! She was perfectly right to deal to the authorities like that.

And I am inclined to give her the benefit of the doubt here anyway. After all, they had probably never had pizza before...

How the Hell was she supposed to know what one is supposed to look like?!

Once OCA build their new Mt Wellington premises I bet the new residents can't wait to meet their new neighbours (https://c.tenor.com/8e6KPdD63CIAAAAd/psycho-laughing-hysterically.gif)...(see, I brought it back on topic!)

[peat]

After all, they had probably ever had pizza before...

How the Hell was she supposed to know what one is supposed to look like?!



mate thats bad eh. really bad.

you obviously dont know P.I's mate. KFC and pizza are staples. how do you think they get such big bones.

[mistaTea]

mate thats bad eh. really bad.

you obviously dont know P.I's mate. KFC and pizza are staples. how do you think they get such big bones.

I think you mean fat asses mate.

The big bones are genetic...you racist...

[peat]

haha
pot kettle brown.

[Joshuatree]

Exactly.

You obviously don't recognise the irony of that comment.

Zero valued added on here for about 3 pages. Should we get back to posting if it will add value? Chat rooms surely can be found somewhere else.:D
There put it in for you;)

[peat]

Zero valued added on here for about 3 pages.

dont you like my charts

[mike2020]

dont you like my charts

I liked the charts. I have decent parcel and I'm probably going to add to it.

[justakiwi]

Well this thread has disintegrated big time. Enough with the racist ****. Aside from it being completely unacceptable, think about the fact that our membership is culturally diverse and your comments may well be offensive and disrespectful to people here.

Get back on topic.

[Not The Chosen One]

Well this thread has disintegrated big time. Enough with the racist ****. Aside from it being completely unacceptable, think about the fact that our membership is culturally diverse and your comments may well be offensive and disrespectful to people here.

Get back on topic.

I doubt admin will do anything to these so called "senior" members and their casual racism. I called someone out in a different forum once for their behaviour and admin ended up amending my response and left theirs for all to see!

[mistaTea]

Well this thread has disintegrated big time. Enough with the racist ****. Aside from it being completely unacceptable, think about the fact that our membership is culturally diverse and your comments may well be offensive and disrespectful to people here.

Get back on topic.

Here here!

Thank you for setting these racist goons straight justakiwi. The suggestion that OCA won't buy the Sky campus because it's the "wrong type of area/demographic" (which is code for "too many islanders" nearby) is just utter nonsense.

Hello!! There are heaps of Indians too! How would they feel being left out of the argument? Offended is what!

So, any more of this race-baiting nonsense and I will be making a formal complaint.

[justakiwi]

By the way, before anyone else feels the need to give me a negative rep vote, my post was not directed at any one person. It was a standalone post, not a "reply to" and was a general comment directed at everyone.
Which should have been obvious to anyone with half a brain, I would have thought.

Carry on.

[dompf]

By the way, before anyone else feels the need to give me a negative rep vote, my post was not directed at any one person. It was a standalone post, not a "reply to" and was a general comment directed at everyone.
Which should have been obvious to anyone with half a brain, I would have thought.

Carry on.

The OCA bond offer closes today so I’m sure we’ll have more certainty on what they are looking to use it for soon. Whatever it is OCA use it for, it’ll be interesting - property market continues to be strong despite lockdown. Falling cases is good, Robertson ok with further house price increases now lol.

real estate still pumping a long irrespective for lockdown.

fun times

[bull....]

Oh yes, I plan to nominate her for Mother of the Year.

Fantastic role model.

would have been a better role model with some KFC , forget the pizza

[Greekwatchdog]

OCA News. Bond Offer over subscribed. https://www.nzx.com/announcements/378552

[Beagle]

Excerpt "it was pleasing for the transaction to be heavily oversubscribed. This funding positions Oceania well for further growth".

[Beagle]

So with the bond issue being heavily oversubscribed what will people do with their money that missed out on OCA bonds ? Buy the shares instead ?

Posted 31 August

Been reflecting on this and future growth prospects, shares v bonds. I think Covid and its variants is a game changer. There's highly likely to be a heck of a lot of elderly folks now absolutely craving the security and support of living in a gated retirement community. The penetration rate of retirement community living is going to grow very quickly indeed from here in the future. Already we have recently seen market evidence of this with SUM having new villages completely sold out even before they're built and long wait lists for other villages, (something they have never experienced before since they listed a decade ago). These same market dynamics will be playing out with demand for OCA villages too.

Our new CEO clearly has his eye on more land acquisitions and I expect the build rate will be scaled up significantly in the years ahead to meet what I think will be rampant demand. On a 7 year view I would be very surprised if we didn't get at least 15% per annum average annual profit growth which if we stick with the current metrics and proximity to the rest of the sector, (closest to NTA and arguably the lowest PE ratio) that should lead to a share price north of $4 seven years from now ($1.59 x 15% growth compounded for 7 years = $4.23)....or you can invest in the bonds and you'll probably get a return after tax of less than the average inflation rate and at the end of the 7 years period the capital you invested is likely to have diminished in value in real inflation adjusted terms.

Further, the average annual dividend rate of the shares over the next 7 years is going to be a lot higher than 3.2% based on an investment at today's share price.

If OCA moves towards the average metrics of the sector in terms of price to NTA the price could be substantially higher than $4 seven years from now, perhaps close to $7.

It has been said that annual compounding growth is the eighth wonder of the world.

That sums up the prospects for shares v bonds as I see them.

[mistaTea]

So with the bond issue being heavily oversubscribed what will people do with their money that missed out on OCA bonds ? Buy the Sky TV shares instead ?



It would be a smart move!

[Beagle]

It would be a smart move!

I think you guys are getting a bit hyped up with your SKY. Time to ease back on the red bull, coffee and V energy drinks I reckon.
I recommend some calming herbal tea...actually, lots of calming herbal tea ;)

[bottomfeeder]

Got some bonds, through Jarden Direct. Scaled back 50%. Only time will tell if the bonds were a good idea, and also time will tell if scaling back was a lucky break.

[macduffy]

My application was scaled back heavily so I decided to buy some more OCA ords instead.

[bottomfeeder]

My application was scaled back heavily so I decided to buy some more OCA ords instead.

I topped up some ords as well, $1.51 seems a good price especially when I sold a few at $1.59 a week ago.
Just followed Joshua Wang on You Tube. Nice young man, did a good sector comparison video on OCA. Seems to be the best for future growth. I would have to agree. They are holding the Waterford property, just aching for development, and now they have the bond proceeds to do it. It would be great if they were well into it by 31 March.

[Beagle]

I topped up some ords as well, $1.51 seems a good price especially when I sold a few at $1.59 a week ago.
Just followed Joshua Wang on You Tube. Nice young man, did a good sector comparison video on OCA. Seems to be the best for future growth. I would have to agree. They are holding the Waterford property, just aching for development, and now they have the bond proceeds to do it. It would be great if they were well into it by 31 March.

Is that a new video he's posted ? Got a link ?...I quite like listening to him, he's such a relaxed presenter.

[Waltzing]

COMP PROPS all time highs.. OCA... waiting on you..

must hold 1.50

[Onion]

Got a link ?

Try this:

https://youtube.com/c/JoshuaWang

[Beagle]

Thanks. He had a good August...certainly not the only one ;)

[Onion]

Thanks. He had a good August...certainly not the only one ;)

I think we need a BeagleMoney YouTube channel. Fund your retirement with your market observations Beagle.

[Brain]

I have just noticed that PEB and OCA have a similar SP and number of shares issued and hence similar capital value of about a billion$ . I own both and have been asking myself what the situation will be in a years time?

[Ggcc]

I have just noticed that PEB and OCA have a similar SP and number of shares issued and hence similar capital value of about a billion$ . I own both and have been asking myself what the situation will be in a years time?
It is an interesting concept. One is a growth stock and the other is a sort of growth stock. I own both, but feel if things progress well in both companies, PEB will still do better in sp. The only difference is that OCA pays a dividend and I don't feel PEB will do within 5 years. Still best not to over invest in PEB yet.

[BlackPeter]

I have just noticed that PEB and OCA have a similar SP and number of shares issued and hence similar capital value of about a billion$ . I own both and have been asking myself what the situation will be in a years time?

Interesting - I am pretty sure one of these two candidates has a significantly higher "hype-factor" built into the price ...

But anyway - let us know when you get an answer from yourself to the question you asked :):

Personally I know which of the two I would favour ... but then, I am not very good in predicting the development of the hype component of any security. But then, who is?

Discl: hold OCA (lots ...)

[winner69]

Interesting - I am pretty sure one of these two candidates has a significantly higher "hype-factor" built into the price ...

But anyway - let us know when you get an answer from yourself to the question you asked :):

Personally I know which of the two I would favour ... but then, I am not very good in predicting the development of the hype component of any security. But then, who is?

Discl: hold OCA (lots ...)


hmmm ... I thought you didn't invest in hype and hyped up companies

Oeania tells a good story though

[Beagle]

Comparing chalk and cheese is a waste of time. Comparing different types of cheese is much more interesting and relevant.

Went back up to a 10% allocation. Every dog has its day and this one is due to start barking very handsomely sometime in the next 12-18 months.

[101nick101]

I like this stock

[dompf]

Comparing chalk and cheese is a waste of time. Comparing different types of cheese is much more interesting and relevant.

Went back up to a 10% allocation. Every dog has its day and this one is due to start barking very handsomely sometime in the next 12-18 months.

Definitely get the feeling the stock is an announcement away from breaking its ATH set last year; hopefully a good runway forming for next 24ms;

[winner69]

Hope the builders Oceania used aren’t suffering too much seeing they apparently have fixed price contracts.

Shortages, increased costs, delays could be a killer

Wouldn’t want this to impact Oceania …nothing worse than having a broke builder and work stopped.

Suppose no work on Auckland sites at the moment.

https://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/the-profitless-boom-builders-say-auckland-materials-drought-has-crippled-them/DCMI72LIDBUBACBV5XTAHZ2P4U/

[Dlownz]

Hope the builders Oceania used aren’t suffering too much seeing they apparently have fixed price contracts.

Shortages, increased costs, delays could be a killer

Wouldn’t want this to impact Oceania …nothing worse than having a broke builder and work stopped.

Suppose no work on Auckland sites at the moment.

https://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/the-profitless-boom-builders-say-auckland-materials-drought-has-crippled-them/DCMI72LIDBUBACBV5XTAHZ2P4U/
Nope doesn't seem to be holding them up.
Inside knowledge grandmother's unit only delayed 1 week moves in 27th September.

[Greekwatchdog]

They should have had all there material allocated at sign off of contract for existing works. Be interesting to see if they "fix there prices". Of more interest on new developments in pipeline and how thats impacted. I am guessing like everyone they will have constraints.

[winner69]

Reports Heritage Lifecare might float

Be good to see Norah back running a NZX company

[Beagle]

Reports Heritage Lifecare might float

Be good to see Norah back running a NZX company
:eek2: :eek2: What happens when you promote a pretty good suburban chartered accountant to something beyond their core level of competency.

[Ggcc]

Hope the builders Oceania used aren’t suffering too much seeing they apparently have fixed price contracts.

Shortages, increased costs, delays could be a killer

Wouldn’t want this to impact Oceania …nothing worse than having a broke builder and work stopped.

Suppose no work on Auckland sites at the moment.

https://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/the-profitless-boom-builders-say-auckland-materials-drought-has-crippled-them/DCMI72LIDBUBACBV5XTAHZ2P4U/

A friend of mine works for another retirement company. They are all push push push and the tradies can't supply everything quick enough. the tradie are getting threatening words if they can't meet demand (no need to threaten if they can't get the parts). Easy to demand when most glaziers in Hawkes bay can't get aluminium for their windows. Workers are doing part time as they have no stuff. Equipment up in Auckland and the retirement provider says just get it. I have just had my house insulated and the insulator has said new builds are waiting for exterior cladding and he can't put stuff in as well as he is stockpiling as there is a shortage of that as well......... 2021 might be the year of the new leaky home saga with a different name..

[Beagle]

All 4 brokers covering this have it as a unanimous BUY. I can't ever recall seeing that before with any other stock.
https://www.marketscreener.com/quote/stock/OCEANIA-HEALTHCARE-LIMITE-103506268/consensus/
Unnoticed by anyone on here before is the average analyst price target is now $1.68 ! One broker has a price target of $1.80

I think Maverick is best positioned of any of us on here but I am happy to be back to having a decent holding at 10% portfolio weight.

[winner69]

All 4 brokers covering this have it as a unanimous BUY. I can't ever recall seeing that before with any other stock.
https://www.marketscreener.com/quote/stock/OCEANIA-HEALTHCARE-LIMITE-103506268/consensus/
Unnoticed by anyone on here before is the average analyst price target is now $1.68 ! One broker has a price target of $1.80

I think Maverick is best positioned of any of us on here but I am happy to be back to having a decent holding at 10% portfolio weight.

Average target has fallen from $1.75 to $1.68 in last few months ….what’s going on

[winner69]

:eek2: :eek2: What happens when you promote a pretty good suburban chartered accountant to something beyond their core level of competency.

Be funny if Oceania bought them instead

[Beagle]

I wasn't aware it was as high as $1.75. 4 Buys tells the story though...should head into the 170's before too long.

A while back when WHS was in the low 330's the average broker price target was in the 380's, (I agreed and said it was worth at least that) and now the share price is there too.

A while back HGH was in the 180's and Jarden said it was worth $2.30 and I agreed and guess what... (they have since updated to $2.46).

I still reckon there's a lot of cash sitting on the sidelines. 7 year OCA bond issue heavily oversubscribed speaks for itself.

Resales and margins will have been going gangbusters before the lockdown and I think they will go absolutely ballistic afterwards as old folks scramble for the safety and security of a quality safe sanctuary from the world's problems and risks. Probably huge numbers of unit sales online over the lockdown (subject to physical inspection ASAP).

[tommy_d]

I am happy to be back to having a decent holding at 10% portfolio weight.
I stopped buying.
24% right now, average cost still under $1
small portfolio though

[Gunner]

A friend of mine works for another retirement company. They are all push push push and the tradies can't supply everything quick enough. the tradie are getting threatening words if they can't meet demand (no need to threaten if they can't get the parts). Easy to demand when most glaziers in Hawkes bay can't get aluminium for their windows. Workers are doing part time as they have no stuff. Equipment up in Auckland and the retirement provider says just get it. I have just had my house insulated and the insulator has said new builds are waiting for exterior cladding and he can't put stuff in as well as he is stockpiling as there is a shortage of that as well......... 2021 might be the year of the new leaky home saga with a different name..

That's because there'll be a contract with a completion date in it. The rest home may have significant damages due to late completion ie people have a set date to move in.

[Bjauck]

Average target has fallen from $1.75 to $1.68 in last few months ….what’s going on That $1.75 was back during a short period when only 2 brokers gave a recommendation? Now 4 brokers are giving a recommendation. So maybe the same happened with brokers' target prices, with the average currently affected by more darts being in the dart board.

[winner69]

That's because there'll be a contract with a completion date in it. The rest home may have significant damages due to late completion ie people have a set date to move in.

Wonder if the builders / contractors share in the pain of any damages

[Ggcc]

That's because there'll be a contract with a completion date in it. The rest home may have significant damages due to late completion ie people have a set date to move in.
Could well be. Due to covid though, things are just not appearing. My mate is waiting for a part and was told 1 month to get it into the country. When lockdown hit the boat did a 180 and left the country not just with his equipment. He has now been told 2 more months. I can say without a doubt, that certain parts of rest homes business will just have to slow their build rate, or like cars go without certain stuff. You can’t build if you have no stuff. Another mate just hoarded $6000 worth of roofing screws as they keep running out. I see where this is going

[Greekwatchdog]

A bit of news from For Barr

Aged Care Sector
Lockdown Impacts; Not All About NZ




The share prices in the aged care sector, much like the rest of the New Zealand market, seem to have largely ignored the
impact of the latest lockdown. From a long term perspective this make sense. The experience from the last Alert Level 4
lockdown seems to have been largely benign and we now have an end game in sight in the form of the vaccine. Short-term
we expect to see some headwinds, primarily in the 1H22 (September) results for all three Aged Care operators with
March balance dates. We expect most but not all of this to be recovered in 2H22. We see Ryman Healthcare (RYM) as most
exposed, with its development pipeline weighted towards Auckland and Victoria (also in lockdown), followed by Oceania
Healthcare (OCA). We view Arvida (ARV) as least exposed of the three to the latest lockdowns with regards to
development risk, but it will also experience lost sales headwinds.
Development — will they or won't they deliver according to plan by year end? Victoria looks increasingly difficult
We have left our development delivery forecasts unchanged for New Zealand for all three March balance date aged care operators.
RYM and OCA both have a Auckland skew in their development pipelines and we believe timeframes will be tight to meet FY22
development guidance before financial year end (March 2022). Our forecasts are unchanged under the assumption that Auckland will
be out of lockdown by the end of September. For RYM's Victoria development, however, we have reduced our FY22 expectations by
50 units, taking our expectations of RYM's total deliveries in FY22 to below the bottom end of its guidance. We see the risks as
skewed to the downside to our lowered RYM delivery estimate.
Reducing estimates for FY22, largely unchanged for FY23/24. Increase target prices
We have reduced our FY22 earnings estimates as we believe that both new sales and re-sales won't fully recover from the Auckland
lockdown. There are meaningful sales lead-times, even with re-sales as the units need to be refurbished, marketed, and transacted on.
Even though we expect a catch up effect in 2H22 the net result is still likely to be negative. We have also revisited our target prices
with all three lifting as we roll them forward. We have increased our target multiple modestly for ARV and OCA (from 23x EV/Annuity
EBITDA to 25x) following a slow but steady progress on three fronts; (1) establishing a track-record of greenfield delivery; (2) proof of
concept of the care suite model; and (3) longevity as listed entities. We currently value RYM and Summerset (SUM) at a 40% premium
to ARV and OCA. We view this as motivated due to the longer track record of delivering growth. However, over time we expect the
discount to reduce meaningfully.
Figure 1. Summary of sector ratings and valuation
Company Ticker Current price (NZ$) Target price (NZ$) 24m fwd PE 24m fwd EV/Annuity EBITDA Rating
Oceania Healthcare OCA 1.53 1.90 14.1 18.4 OUTPERFORM
Arvida ARV 2.10 2.50 13.0 20.7 OUTPERFORM
Summerset SUM 15.40 13.85 18.1 34.8 NEUTRAL
Ryman Healthcare RYM 15.61 12.60 23.9 44.1 UNDERPERFORM

[Rawz]

Interesting, thanks for posting GreekWD.

OCA really cheap.

[Onion]

A bit of news from For Barr

Aged Care Sector
Lockdown Impacts; Not All About NZ



Thanks for that. I like the target for OCA!


Question to self - why are so many posters on ST some type of dog? Or cat? Why are vegetables so underrepresented?

[Beagle]

Many thanks Greekwatchdog - Excerpt

Figure 1. Summary of sector ratings and valuation
Company Ticker Current price (NZ$) Target price (NZ$)
Oceania Healthcare OCA 1.53 1.90 OUTPERFORM
Arvida ARV 2.10 2.50 OUTPERFORM
Summerset SUM 15.40 13.85 NEUTRAL
Ryman Healthcare RYM 15.61 12.60 UNDERPERFORM

Very interesting price targets for all 4 companies in this sector highlighted above.

[Baa_Baa]

Thanks for that. I like the target for OCA!

Thanks also GWD, so that's a 24.2% SP increase forecast. Although we haven't hit their March target of $1.70 yet, let alone their April target $1.80, they're bullish enough to retain Outperform rating and uplift the target to $1.90.

Happy days ahead. :t_up:

[Gunner]

Wonder if the builders / contractors share in the pain of any damages

They will if they not meet the completion date in the contract unless there is an extension of time. Covid lockdown will extend the contract duration of the project for example as it is not the fault of the contractor. The will likely be fixed rates in the contract and the contractor will have to manage the cost fluctuations on that and depending on the clauses of the contract, this could be a problem for them. There will likely be liquidated damages on the contractors where they'll pay a fee per day if they miss the completion date. This is how OCA will recover costs due to any delays.

[winner69]

They will if they not meet the completion date in the contract unless there is an extension of time. Covid lockdown will extend the contract duration of the project for example as it is not the fault of the contractor. The will likely be fixed rates in the contract and the contractor will have to manage the cost fluctuations on that and depending on the clauses of the contract, this could be a problem for them. There will likely be liquidated damages on the contractors where they'll pay a fee per day if they miss the completion date. This is how OCA will recover costs due to any delays.

So builders / contractors could go broke?

Could this affect the ability to get future work done on time and at present a reasonable cost

[Gunner]

So builders / contractors could go broke?

Could this affect the ability to get future work done on time and at present a reasonable cost

No not necessarily, every contract is different. It depends on what clauses and tags (clause exemptions/ clarifications) the contractor has put into their original quote and subsequent contract. If depends how much risk they have taken on. NZ is small industry so a pragmatic approach is taken to work through issues together (more so than overseas) but contract is still the contract. OCA would likely not want to burn good contractors that they may use in the future but then also they also have an obligation to make money. A good contractor would put Covid clauses in about delay, price increase and supply issues. If they have then OCA would be carrying the risk.

[Dotbond]

Being in the building industry myself, playing hardball with contractors and subbies in this climate is also shooting yourself in the foot. They ain't growing on trees and if Covid restrictions or supply chain issues are the reason for delays then that needs to be taken into consideration before OCA start laying down the law.

[thegreatestben]

Yeah I've got two houses being built currently under fixed price contracts, had a few impacts due to material supply. Can't get the timber weatherboards in fixed length finger jointed so I went with premium clears in varied lengths. This cost me 14K extra just for cladding. Would rather it get clad than sit in the rain. Bit concerned how it's all going to go, slabs were poured the week before Level 4.

[Beagle]

To the best of my knowledge OCA use large construction companies who have extensive experience in building high quality projects and a reputation for building them on time and on budget. I think they have used https://www.naylorlove.co.nz/our-projects/ on some of their projects.

These companies are well experienced at dealing with all sorts of challenges thrown up in building complex structures.

Much is being made by some of the current challenges but while there may be some impact on the timing of delivery with the Covid lockdown I am confident that this is immaterial to OCA on a valuation basis as customers can expect to pay more in the future for the security and peace of mind of living in a safe, well supported retirement community and they're well capable of affording it with the way house prices have rapidly escalated. If it costs significantly more to build units in the future once current fixed price contracts have run their course I am confident this will be reflected in both the asking price for new units in the future and resale prices for all existing stock.

Its therefore actually quite easy to make a strong case that escalating construction costs are a significant net positive for OCA as not only will they be fully recovered on new units sold this will significantly add to the resale profits of all existing stock when they're resold. I maintain OCA is therefore an excellent inflation proof stock where escalating inflation pressures will add quite significantly to earnings in future years. My target price one year from now is $2.

[mike2020]

Mr B that is my target by late January. I watched a the first online auctions post lockdown in Christchurch this morning. One resale, within 6 months, no changes at all +15%. Everything sold.
My prediction is another round of yelling at the (housing) dog by Cindy and Grant after covid settles.

[Valiant]

Some good points Gunner. I will add that it's in the best interest for the Contractor and Principal to have risks allocated to the party best placed to manage them. In the case of Covid, this is a govt mandate and not something the Principal has instigated - any EoT or variation claim from a contractor should be assessed on an open book basis whereby the contractor is paid for "costs incurred". they should be in a position to recover costs due to the impacts of covid but should not expect to be profiting if a site is shutdown under AL4 i.e. off-site over heads and profit do not necessarily apply.

This is the general approach I am (and the company I work for) applying across projects we manage nationally which are NZS3910 /3916 based.

[Gunner]

Some good points Gunner. I will add that it's in the best interest for the Contractor and Principal to have risks allocated to the party best placed to manage them. In the case of Covid, this is a govt mandate and not something the Principal has instigated - any EoT or variation claim from a contractor should be assessed on an open book basis whereby the contractor is paid for "costs incurred". they should be in a position to recover costs due to the impacts of covid but should not expect to be profiting if a site is shutdown under AL4 i.e. off-site over heads and profit do not necessarily apply.

This is the general approach I am (and the company I work for) applying across projects we manage nationally which are NZS3910 /3916 based.

Agreed, what I don't understand is, how OCA and the likes have not experienced more significant costs due to the lockdowns last year and this year. I would have thought it would have been more costly than reported. Ultimately as the principal, OCA would be liable for any cost associated with the lockdown and the reduced lack of productivity at AL3 and AL2 to the Contractor and the subbies excl the wage subsidy. These costs would not be insignificant but then it depends on the stage of the construction and number on the go at once.

In part the above would be offset by the increased sale value of the property due to the increased market prices and strong demand over the last year

[James108]

Agreed, what I don't understand is, how OCA and the likes have not experienced more significant costs due to the lockdowns last year and this year. I would have thought it would have been more costly than reported. Ultimately as the principal, OCA would be liable for any cost associated with the lockdown and the reduced lack of productivity at AL3 and AL2 to the Contractor and the subbies excl the wage subsidy. These costs would not be insignificant but then it depends on the stage of the construction and number on the go at once.

In part the above would be offset by the increased sale value of the property due to the increased market prices and strong demand over the last year

I don't think the cost of the lockdown will be huge. Yes there would be some variations for cost (e.g. de-mob and re-mob, securing site) as well as EoT's (time will be the main 'cost'). They certainly won't be paying the difference between their sub-contractors wages and the wage subsidy.

[Gunner]

I don't think the cost of the lockdown will be huge. Yes there would be some variations for cost (e.g. de-mob and re-mob, securing site) as well as EoT's (time will be the main 'cost'). They certainly won't be paying the difference between their sub-contractors wages and the wage subsidy.

They will more than likely be paying the difference between the wages and the wage subsidy for both the contractors and the subbies. But it depends on the stages of construction i.e. there may not be many subs on site. And the subs may not be very contractually savvy to claim it.

[James108]

They will more than likely be paying the difference between the wages and the wage subsidy for both the contractors and the subbies. But it depends on the stages of construction i.e. there may not be many subs on site. And the subs may not be very contractually savvy to claim it.

Actually, just asked a client side senior PM who agrees with you that depending on contract the client is probably paying the wages minus subsidy for the main contractors and maybe sub-contractors. So I guess there is a reasonable chance Oceania are. I'm sure their contracts this time around specifically address covid, wonder who takes the risk here. Also it occurs to me that they may be paying for e.g. crane rental and other plant sitting on site. Waimarie is out of the ground now so would be crawling with subbies.

Overall though not too worried about these extra costs for 4 weeks (or less depending on where the site is) compared to a market cap of >$1B.

[Beagle]

None of the above matters, in fact it helps OCA in terms of future profitability, see post #9910.

[Gunner]

None of the above matters, in fact it helps OCA in terms of future profitability, see post #9910.

Perhaps not at the moment but the longer it goes on, it will. Auckland isnt coming out of AL4 next week.

[winner69]

Retirement Commissioner still harping on about village contracts

https://businessdesk.co.nz/article/property/creaky-retirement-village-framework-should-be-changed

[dompf]

None of the above matters, in fact it helps OCA in terms of future profitability, see post #9910.

For some context for our retirement sector are property values - as retirement sector is in property. Lets have a look




CoreLogic NZ House Price Index



Three Months Ended August 2021







Average current value $

3 month change %

12 month change %





Territorial authority





Far North

613,098

7.3%

25.7%





Whangarei

731,063

1.9%

26.2%





Kaipara

800,180

9.9%

33.2%





Auckland - Rodney

1,231,994

6.1%

24.7%





Rodney - Hibiscus Coast

1,197,672

7.0%

23.7%





Rodney - North

1,264,084

5.4%

25.2%





Auckland - North Shore

1,496,346

4.3%

22.0%





North Shore - Coastal

1,710,287

4.1%

22.6%





North Shore - North Harbour

1,443,911

6.2%

22.1%





North Shore - Onewa

1,219,428

3.4%

21.7%





Auckland - Waitakere

1,080,574

5.9%

26.3%





Auckland - City

1,579,648

6.5%

25.7%





Auckland City - Central

1,334,480

7.0%

22.6%





Auckland City - Islands

1,616,712

12.1%

39.3%





Auckland City - South

1,436,635

7.0%

26.9%





Auckland_City - East

1,979,169

5.4%

25.5%





Auckland - Manukau

1,175,631

5.2%

24.8%





Manukau - Central

932,876

6.1%

26.9%





Manukau - East

1,502,440

4.1%

25.2%





Manukau - North West

1,015,193

6.1%

23.4%





Auckland - Papakura

926,841

5.7%

25.8%





Auckland - Franklin

887,974

7.0%

25.8%





Thames Coromandel

1,102,238

8.7%

36.6%





Hauraki

629,396

23.7%

37.7%





Waikato

677,055

5.5%

28.1%





Matamata Piako

642,198

11.2%

21.4%





Hamilton

782,774

-0.5%

21.8%





Hamilton - Central & North West

731,237

-0.5%

23.2%





Hamilton - North East

963,766

0.7%

24.2%





Hamilton - South East

723,265

-1.0%

19.8%





Hamilton - South West

704,994

-0.6%

22.0%





Waipa

816,321

7.4%

25.6%





South Waikato

404,238

7.8%

28.0%





Waitomo

314,908

-3.2%

23.6%





Taupo

785,733

6.7%

34.3%





Western BOP

904,741

6.7%

28.2%





Tauranga

1,021,021

5.4%

28.0%





Rotorua

644,390

-2.8%

19.9%





Whakatane

672,528

-0.8%

27.4%





Kawerau

410,618

12.0%

31.4%





Opotiki

489,143

4.0%

34.6%





Gisborne

599,244

1.4%

38.2%





Wairoa

350,064

-8.1%

40.8%





Hastings

814,682

6.5%

37.2%





Napier

827,381

3.9%

34.1%





Central Hawkes Bay

545,867

4.8%

26.3%





New Plymouth

655,515

3.5%

27.4%





Stratford

451,414

2.7%

28.0%





South Taranaki

394,799

5.7%

38.6%





Ruapehu

370,685

8.3%

38.2%





Whanganui

522,220

4.4%

41.4%





Rangitikei

451,435

4.4%

41.2%





Manawatu

628,138

4.2%

32.3%





Palmerston North

725,185

5.9%

39.1%





Tararua

449,708

6.9%

52.2%





Horowhenua

615,126

5.4%

38.2%





Kapiti Coast

919,741

2.0%

36.8%





Porirua

953,891

6.4%

37.8%





Upper Hutt

892,375

5.7%

37.0%





Hutt

939,981

5.5%

36.4%





Wellington

1,194,328

6.8%

33.6%





Wellington - Central & South

1,126,711

3.7%

27.1%





Wellington - East

1,305,567

8.7%

37.3%





Wellington - North

1,133,660

8.9%

37.7%





Wellington - West

1,372,414

7.3%

36.8%





Masterton

631,501

6.3%

42.4%





Carterton

681,566

1.1%

38.3%





South Wairarapa

820,634

4.5%

44.9%





Tasman

793,322

5.5%

22.1%





Nelson

804,681

6.0%

21.8%





Marlborough

677,987

-0.6%

29.3%





Kaikoura

603,438

12.6%

26.5%





Buller

276,136

6.7%

33.6%





Grey

331,159

15.8%

42.2%





Westland

346,037

4.6%

23.9%





Hurunui

497,487

0.0%

19.9%





Waimakariri

602,588

9.7%

29.2%





Christchurch

654,198

6.7%

26.0%





Christchurch - Banks Peninsula

701,356

6.5%

30.5%





Christchurch - Central & North

759,148

7.3%

24.9%





Christchurch - East

504,469

6.8%

28.3%





Christchurch - Hills

907,480

8.5%

27.4%





Christchurch - Southwest

618,380

5.5%

25.4%





Selwyn

719,355

7.6%

26.1%





Ashburton

450,596

3.2%

18.3%





Timaru

454,610

3.0%

16.3%





MacKenzie

629,158

0.9%

7.1%





Waimate

366,471

9.1%

28.7%





Waitaki

440,272

4.4%

22.6%





Central Otago

694,926

3.6%

18.1%





Queenstown Lakes

1,391,079

3.4%

23.3%





Dunedin

672,058

4.0%

23.2%





Dunedin - Central & North

690,983

3.9%

25.0%





Dunedin - Peninsular & Coastal

627,171

4.7%

22.4%





Dunedin - South

642,154

3.7%

23.8%





Dunedin - Taieri

696,549

4.1%

20.9%





Clutha

374,121

11.0%

25.5%





Southland

428,478

4.3%

14.1%





Gore

369,098

9.9%

28.8%





Invercargill

441,837

3.4%

21.8%

















Auckland Area

1,337,648

5.7%

24.7%





Main Urban Areas

1,065,500

5.4%

26.4%





Wellington Area

1,065,224

6.3%

35.0%





Total NZ

937,148

5.2%

27.0%

[Beagle]

Perhaps not at the moment but the longer it goes on, it will. Auckland isnt coming out of AL4 next week.

Not saying it is but stocks are valued on a DCF basis, (today's value of all future expected future cash flows) and the more it costs to build new units the more profit will be realized from resales and the more this adds to the DCF value of OCA.

[James108]

Hi beagle, I am unconvinced by your thesis that you can simply recoup build costs in the sale price. This may be true in part but I think units are priced to sell and the sale price is set largely due to external factors, e.g local housing sale price, local demand etc.

[Beagle]

Hi beagle, I am unconvinced by your thesis that you can simply recoup build costs in the sale price. This may be true in part but I think units are priced to sell and the sale price is set largely due to external factors, e.g local housing sale price, local demand etc.

Units are generally less than half the size of a conventional house in the same neighborhood and priced accordingly. I'm super confident of my thesis.

[James108]

Yes I am sure you are. If they are priced at half the local conventional house what effect does construction costs have? Hmmm…

Maybe if you CAN just recoup your costs as part of the unit sale price Oceania could 'pretend' internally that they had incurred extra construction costs and then increase the sale price accordingly! May need to send Brent an email.

[allfromacell]

Yes I am sure you are. If they are priced at half the local conventional house what effect does construction costs have? Hmmm…

Maybe if you CAN just recoup your costs as part of the unit sale price Oceania could 'pretend' internally that they had incurred extra construction costs and then increase the sale price accordingly! May need to send Brent an email.

What about all the embedded value of all the existing units though?

If costs increase, naturally prices increase and therefore units built in the last decade are all worth more and resold again and again for more and more profit.

Sometimes I think this investment is just too easy...

[Beagle]

What about all the embedded value of all the existing units though?

If costs increase, naturally prices increase and therefore units built in the last decade are all worth more and resold again and again for more and more profit.

Sometimes I think this investment is just too easy...

You're on to it :)

[tommy_d]

Sometimes I think this investment is just too easy...

the difficult bit is when OCA is just under 25% of my portfolio, and i feel as though it remains undervalued, but am uncomfortable having so many eggs in one basket.

[allfromacell]

the difficult bit is when OCA is just under 25% of my portfolio, and i feel as though it remains undervalued, but am uncomfortable having so many eggs in one basket.

35% here although a lot is just letting profits run, I'm feeling cool and calm.

[Panda-NZ-]

Brexit britain are hiking all sorts of taxes to pay for "social care".

https://www.cnbc.com/2021/09/07/boris-johnson-to-hike-taxes-to-tackle-covid-and-social-care-crises.html

Mainly on the workers of course..

Bezos seems interested in the more obvious direction, fixing the underlying aging issue with medicine.

[Ggcc]

the difficult bit is when OCA is just under 25% of my portfolio, and i feel as though it remains undervalued, but am uncomfortable having so many eggs in one basket.
I hear you. It remains a great business longterm and just remember that. I have often thought about lowering my hold and looking to invest in something else. But what?

[Waltzing]

You ave to like the new adverts.

[winner69]

Been thinking about what might happen to the likes of Oceania with the 'new normal' / living with covid and no more lock downs - maybe next year

Probably be hundreds and hundreds (maybe thousands) of covid cases reported every day

Aged care facilities will be affected - they won't be able to escape living with covid

At least it will be 'normal' and and the outcomes accepted as one of those things - so shouldn't shock the markets hopefully

Question then - should whatever the living with covid ramifications are affect our perceived value of Oceania (and others) shares

We should be forward looking

An upside might be higher death rates for a few years which would help that unit turnover rate (good) - downside might be more really sick residents whose sickness will linger and requiring moe and longer care (hoping faciities can cope and have enough people)

[BlackPeter]

Been thinking about what might happen to the likes of Oceania with the 'new normal' / living with covid and no more lock downs - maybe next year

Probably be hundreds and hundreds (maybe thousands) of covid cases reported every day

Aged care facilities will be affected - they won't be able to escape living with covid

At least it will be 'normal' and and the outcomes accepted as one of those things - so shouldn't shock the markets hopefully

Question then - should whatever the living with covid ramifications are affect our perceived value of Oceania (and others) shares

We should be forward looking

An upside might be higher death rates for a few years which would help that unit turnover rate (good) - downside might be more really sick residents whose sickness will linger and requiring moe and longer care (hoping faciities can cope and have enough people)

Aren't the vaccination rates in the retirement homes by now close to 100% (both staff and residents)?

Given that am I not sure I expect Covid to rock retirement villages next year. Sure - some residents might catch it, but outcomes won't be worse for the vaccinated residents as what the flu used to do to them in previous years.

While you are right that NZ needs to prepare for hundreds or thousands of daily new cases, it will be a pandemic of the unvaccinated. Hopefully not in our (well vaccinated) retirements villages.

[winner69]

Aren't the vaccination rates in the retirement homes by now close to 100% (both staff and residents)?

Given that am I not sure I expect Covid to rock retirement villages next year. Sure - some residents might catch it, but outcomes won't be worse for the vaccinated residents as what the flu used to do to them in previous years.

While you are right that NZ needs to prepare for hundreds or thousands of daily new cases, it will be a pandemic of the unvaccinated. Hopefully not in our (well vaccinated) retirements villages.

I'm glad you are so optimistic BP so I shouldn't worry

Unless investors don't panic sell en masse when they read about covid deaths in aged care places

[justakiwi]

The vaccination rates amongst the elderly, particularly those living in residential care, has been very high. The vast majority will already be fully vaccinated. Those in residential care are also already having their health monitored closely and caregivers are very quickly "onto it" in terms of noticing any changes in health, behaviours, mood etc. Any concerns/observations of changes, are escalated to an RN - every shift. Which means those in care are at a distinct advantage.

I think you will also find, that even if government imposed lock downs become a thing of the past, providers will always have the right, and ability, to impose temporary, short term restrictions on things like visitors, outings etc - if there was a significant outbreak in their area. I have no doubt that residents would continue to be supportive of any such restrictions. They already feel protected and understand that providers/staff are doing what they can to ensure their well-being.

I don't envisage any major issues, providing we can get our vaccination rates to an optimal level (but let's not "go there" here)


Been thinking about what might happen to the likes of Oceania with the 'new normal' / living with covid and no more lock downs - maybe next year

Probably be hundreds and hundreds (maybe thousands) of covid cases reported every day

Aged care facilities will be affected - they won't be able to escape living with covid

At least it will be 'normal' and and the outcomes accepted as one of those things - so shouldn't shock the markets hopefully

Question then - should whatever the living with covid ramifications are affect our perceived value of Oceania (and others) shares

We should be forward looking

An upside might be higher death rates for a few years which would help that unit turnover rate (good) - downside might be more really sick residents whose sickness will linger and requiring moe and longer care (hoping faciities can cope and have enough people)

[Beagle]

The vaccination rates amongst the elderly, particularly those living in residential care, has been very high. The vast majority will already be fully vaccinated. Those in residential care are also already having their health monitored closely and caregivers are very quickly "onto it" in terms of noticing any changes in health, behaviours, mood etc. Any concerns/observations of changes, are escalated to an RN - every shift. Which means those in care are at a distinct advantage.

I think you will also find, that even if government imposed lock downs become a thing of the past, providers will always have the right, and ability, to impose temporary, short term restrictions on things like visitors, outings etc - if there was a significant outbreak in their area. I have no doubt that residents would continue to be supportive of any such restrictions. They already feel protected and understand that providers/staff are doing what they can to ensure their well-being.

I don't envisage any major issues, providing we can get our vaccination rates to an optimal level (but let's not "go there" here)

Thank you for your valuable feedback from the front line.

[thegreatestben]

Earl's been selling - http://nzx-prod-s7fsd7f98s.s3-website-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/attachments/OCA/379021/354570.pdf

[850man]

Earl's been selling - http://nzx-prod-s7fsd7f98s.s3-website-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/attachments/OCA/379021/354570.pdf

Not surprising as he went to the competition 6 months ago

[thegreatestben]

Yeah, interested to know why sell now? Maybe he think SP is as good as it's going to get in the short term? Is he under any pressure to sell as CEO of MET?

[Poet]

Maybe needs 6 months distance so no longer considered an insider

[dompf]

Yeah, interested to know why sell now? Maybe he think SP is as good as it's going to get in the short term? Is he under any pressure to sell as CEO of MET?

maybe he bought a Bach

[Greekwatchdog]

Or a MET Retirement home.

[Maverick]

I've been very open with my high expectations on the upcoming 1HY underlying result. According to my calcs, this result was going to be significant as was going to be the first -easy to read- proof of OCAs model finally cranking into action. All the ducks WERE lined up.

Well bad news folks, after some recalculating I have to now downgrade that to just being another benign/flat upcoming result. The kind we have had for 3 years now. Basically their new delivery in Tamaki Makaurau (Eden was going to deliver 49 apartments this HY) being on hold for at least 5 weeks and a few extra Covid costs, will have a material effect on the result. Beagle indicated this a while ago that this might happen but I was hanging onto you guys going to L3 sooner than this.

There is reasonable “ hope” that the gang buster sales and improving price points prior to L4, or even an early delivery date of Eden, may save the day but that is leaving the world of facts that we do know over to crossing fingers.

The delays and covid costs will be of no long term consequence for those of us here who are settled in but I just want to be transparent here of my lowered expectations as I've been quite vocal on this particular HY1 result.

[Beagle]

Nice to see you back Mav. Many of the deferred sales from the first half will roll over into the second half so I am not worried about it.

[Ferg]

Thanks for the update Maverick.

Quick question for you and please bear with me in what appears to be an odd question: in calculating an "adjusted NTA" should we remove the "refundable occupation right agreements" value?

The reason I ask is rather than divide equity by the number of shares I like to adjust the NTA for not just intangibles, but also the various IFRS junk as well as items that are just timing differences. For example prepayments are not really a tangible assets, it is more like a deferred expense and is therefore removed by me. On the flip side of the coin, any deferred revenue balance is also a timing difference and I also remove that. Likewise deferred tax liabilities never crystallise as a liability.

The reason I ask about "refundable occupation right agreements" is because if I am reading the AR correctly, OCA never has to repay that liability. I believe it is the departing right holder who must find another person to take up their right, and that right is then transferred from one holder to another. Is that correct? And if so, does that mean this liability is never actually repaid?

[Maverick]

Ferg, that is some crazy bunch of questions. I'll try and work through it tomorrow.

[Ferg]

No worries. Rather than answer the middle part (those are just examples of adjustments I make), the question boils down to the first sentence. Should we exclude the refundable rights liability? The justification is per the last paragraph where I believe the liability never crystallises (yes it gets reduced via management fees but that is a separate issue).

Edit: in hindsight, I may have misinterpreted the note at the bottom of page 84 of the 2021 AR in that (my new thinking is that) ORAs would be repayable if the occupancy % reduced....?


Ferg, that is some crazy bunch of questions. I'll try and work through it tomorrow.

[Mudfish]

I've been very open with my high expectations on the upcoming 1HY underlying result. According to my calcs, this result was going to be significant as was going to be the first -easy to read- proof of OCAs model finally cranking into action. All the ducks WERE lined up.

Well bad news folks, after some recalculating I have to now downgrade that to just being another benign/flat upcoming result. The kind we have had for 3 years now. Basically their new delivery in Tamaki Makaurau (Eden was going to deliver 49 apartments this HY) being on hold for at least 5 weeks and a few extra Covid costs, will have a material effect on the result. Beagle indicated this a while ago that this might happen but I was hanging onto you guys going to L3 sooner than this.

There is reasonable “ hope” that the gang buster sales and improving price points prior to L4, or even an early delivery date of Eden, may save the day but that is leaving the world of facts that we do know over to crossing fingers.

The delays and covid costs will be of no long term consequence for those of us here who are settled in but I just want to be transparent here of my lowered expectations as I've been quite vocal on this particular HY1 result.



Thanks for the update Mav. Obviously, not great news in the short term but, as you say, in the longer term the game is the same. I'm hoping the report will show this hick up for what it is so won't be so bland. Thanks again for your efforts.

[winner69]

REINZ August data

Number of sales a bit slack in August but median prices up 3% from July …..in the US they would say 36% annualised

All good OCA and others

https://www.reinz.co.nz/Media/Default/Statistic%20Documents/2021/Residential/August/REINZ%20Monthly%20Property%20Report%20-%20August%202021-1.pdf

[winner69]

This chart from ANZ a worry …..property prices likely to decline from where are now

Recall: retirement sector share prices tend to move with property prices

[dubya]

Market Screener. 4 analysts, just moved average target price up a smidgen. From $1.68 to $1.71. Still all 4 analysts with a buy rating.

https://www.marketscreener.com/quote/stock/OCEANIA-HEALTHCARE-LIMITE-103506268/

[Beagle]

Analysts BUY rating 10/10. Don't see that very often !

Median house price in Auckland now $1,200,000 WOW !!

Residents interest free loans to the company must be included as a liability of the company for the balance sheet to show a true and fair view.
Any attempted creativity around that is in my opinion wasted energy. Absolutely its a liability its just whether its a current liability, (within 12 months or not), as I think there is a very good chance the Govt will mandate a maximum timeframe for repayment of these loans.

Real Estate market correcting ? Various economic commentators have been saying that's imminent for years now, most notably with unanimous agreement in early 2020 and they were ALL wrong...I'll believe a decline when I see it and not before.

OCA an almost perfect hedge against inflation.

[winner69]

Market Screener. 4 analysts, just moved average target price up a smidgen. From $1.68 to $1.71. Still all 4 analysts with a buy rating.

https://www.marketscreener.com/quote/stock/OCEANIA-HEALTHCARE-LIMITE-103506268/

Broker analysts are real gurus eh …targets 150 to 180 ….but when I click on that link it still shows 168, not 171


Shareclarity says it worth 116 …they not gurus

[Beagle]

Click on consensus first. Average target will probably go higher still shortly with Forbar recently raising their price target to $1.90.

I take no notice whatsoever of share clarity numbers.

[winner69]

Simply Wall St seems to have a 230 value

They are real gurus

Any more guesses out there

[dompf]

Simply Wall St seems to have a 230 value

They are real gurus

Any more guesses out there

craigs have it @
Target Price
Average NZ$1.84
High NZ$1.90
Low NZ$1.7

[Mudfish]

Market Screener. 4 analysts, just moved average target price up a smidgen. From $1.68 to $1.71. Still all 4 analysts with a buy rating.

https://www.marketscreener.com/quote/stock/OCEANIA-HEALTHCARE-LIMITE-103506268/

Thanks for the heads up Dub. Had a quick look at M Screener, seems RYM, ARV, and OCA all have a positive re-rate. Only SUM no change. Must be a bit of homework going on by the guns, at least one gun anyway. Will be interesting to see if other guns also have a closer look. Either way, hard to see this as anything but a good sign for the sector.

[Maverick]

No worries. Rather than answer the middle part (those are just examples of adjustments I make), the question boils down to the first sentence. Should we exclude the refundable rights liability? The justification is per the last paragraph where I believe the liability never crystallises (yes it gets reduced via management fees but that is a separate issue).

Edit: in hindsight, I may have misinterpreted the note at the bottom of page 84 of the 2021 AR in that (my new thinking is that) ORAs would be repayable if the occupancy % reduced....?

Hey Ferg,
In response to your question yesterday I've tried to figure out the angle you are looking at. You're obviously a very bright cookie judging from your posts. I'm not an accountant by any stretch and I see Beagle has already answered your question today, cheers Beagle.( good post too mate)

In basic words, the liability of having to pay out all residents their remaining contract is already subtracted as a liability from the balance sheet. It was $618m in FY2021 so if everybody up sticks and left OCA would be in a pile of poo due to cash flow problems.

I am not sure of OCAs time policy on paying out vacated ORAs before being re-let to the new incoming guys. This is one of the aspects the retirement commission wants to nail down as a standard across the industry. Knowing OCAs style they will surely pay out in a timely fashion so will need to carry some debt between occupants.

Back to asset backing , OCA had an asset backing of $1.28 as at 31.3.2021 but you may not be aware that there is another 8 cents you can add to that for your personal formula. That 8c is not counted yet as its unsold stock and based on the cost price of the buildings. The 8c is realized upon the first sale of the units.

If you want to get real clever you can also add the embedded value part yet to be realized on currently occupied units , that's 15c extra. I personally wouldn't because that is too far down the track to worry about, spread over many years. It materializes as resale gains.

Frankly I find it astonishing that you only have to pay a 13% premium on NTA (based on $1.36 NTA at todays closing price) to own a high class, fully managed spread of NZ property, with a growth strategy and pays a dividend.( with NZ least troublesome tenants) It makes personally owning a domestic rental house utter madness.
It is an indictment on the financial ability's of average NZ`ders that would much prefer to own/ manage their own rental and all the associated costs and hassles while perceiving this sharemarket offering as "way too high risk."

[Beagle]

Good post Mav. NTA will be up a bit more shortly too with another 6 months capital gains since 31 March. Looking further ahead consumer expectations are for more gains. https://www.stuff.co.nz/business/126354632/kiwis-bullish-about-house-price-growth-despite-headwinds-survey-shows?utm_source=ST&utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=ShareTrader+AM+Update+for+Monday+13+S eptember+2021

[Ferg]

I am not sure of OCAs time policy on paying out vacated ORAs before being re-let to the new incoming guys
Thanks Maverick for your reply and kind words. I agree the NTA is higher than first appears.

The part I have quoted is exactly what I was driving at with my earlier post.

Whilst the liability exists and is real (and has been booked and it should be, which is 100% not in dispute from me) for each individual ORA, I'm trying to assess the likelihood of the overall liability crystallising if the timing of a payout to a former rights holder is dependant on a new incoming rights holder. If the occupancy rate is maintained (or increased) and the unit prices are maintained (or increased) then I cannot see how this liability would ever crystallise when viewed in conjunction with the deposits from incoming residents. To Beagle's point it is effectively an interest free loan but I am trying to look past the IFRS/accounting rules to get a better understanding of the the financial reality.

Is the liability ever repaid when you view it from the angle of current and prospective rights holders? I can't find anything on the timing of payouts to former rights holders - but I was convinced I saw something previously that said payment was dependant on the incoming rights holder. If that is the case then IMO that is a major game changer, assuming there is no Government intervention.

[Beagle]

Interest if your unit remains unsold

If you ever need to leave your Oceania apartment or villa, we make it as stress-free as possible – even if your unit doesn’t sell straight away. We will pay you interest on your refund amount if your villa or apartment remains unsold after six months. From their website.


How much will be refunded when I leave my villa or apartment?
When your villa or apartment is vacated, a new incoming resident can be offered the Occupation Right Agreement. Once the new resident has paid their Occupation Licence Payment you, or heirs to your estate, will receive a refund. The amount we refund is called the Net Refundable Amount.

Here’s an example to demonstrate how the Net Refundable Amount would be calculated for a villa priced at $300,000:

Capital amount of the Occupation Right Agreement: $300,000

3 year Deferred Management Fee 30%: $90,000

Total paid to resident on exit: $210,000


"Can be" more to come on that tomorrow.

[Ferg]

Thanks Beagle.

My interpretation: if you can find a new owner you get paid out straight away, otherwise you wait 6 months for payment if the unit remains unsold - is that correct?

Cheers, Ferg

[Baa_Baa]

Thanks Beagle.

My interpretation: if you can find a new owner you get paid out straight away, otherwise you wait 6 months for payment if the unit remains unsold - is that correct?

Cheers, Ferg

We will pay you interest on your refund amount if your villa or apartment remains unsold after six months.

[Ferg]

Does that interest payment also include the refund of the principal? Or are they only paying the interest? The quote says interest on "refund amount".

I couldn't find that clause here: https://www.oceaniahealthcare.co.nz/faq

[Maverick]

To Beagle's point it is effectively an interest free loan but I am trying to look past the IFRS/accounting rules to get a better understanding of the the financial reality.

Is the liability ever repaid when you view it from the angle of current and prospective rights holders? I can't find anything on the timing of payouts to former rights holders - but I was convinced I saw something previously that said payment was dependant on the incoming rights holder. If that is the case then IMO that is a major game changer, assuming there is no Government intervention.

Ferg , good on you for digging deeper and causing some interesting conversation and thought.
I can't see how capital changes that may be required between occupancies is anything to adjust for, for a long long time yet.

-It is known waiting lists start forming on new villages/ cares suites within 2 years of operation so strong demand is proven.
-Surely refurbishment delays on care suites is negligible (2.5 year turnover can't incur too much damage or fashion updating ). Apartments can't be too bad either with a turnover of 5.5 years.
-the operators all seem to have no trouble selling and now even even pre-selling their ILUs or apartments which demonstrates their collective insight to correctly matching supply with anticipated demand.

Im not seeing any reason to worry about changes in capital being tied up between occupancies any time soon.

On the other point raised here the last few days , it's really pleasing to see the analysts well and truely on board with the model now. I suspect even a flat 1HY will not disappoint the analysts as they now, as we all, seem willing to look through the lockdown effects these days.

[Beagle]

Does that interest payment also include the refund of the principal? Or are they only paying the interest? The quote says interest on "refund amount".

I couldn't find that clause here: https://www.oceaniahealthcare.co.nz/faq

Good on you for stimulating discussion around this area as the capital efficient model that is the retirement village business model is one of the key drivers of profitability. As you've highlighted, effectively the company liability is repaid and funded by the incoming resident. On the odd occasion interest is paid on the refundable amount for a period of time but I would has at a guess it would be at a very low interest rate and in effect the company has what basically amounts to a non refundable interest free loan in perpetuity on most of its property, (apart from common area buildings and facilities), however the latter are funded through the 30% retention of the ORA.

For those that don't know, this area of the tax law falls under the financial arrangements area of the income tax act. Residents loan the company money interest free in return for a license to occupy a unit until such time as they relinquish it.

On the "can be" offered to a new incoming resident I alluded too yesterday, a unit is not always offered to a new incoming resident in its current form. Sometimes villages are remodeled, they get old and whole blocks of units where unit sizes were formerly quite large or small are remodeled and reconstructed into different configurations to suit the changing market demand and on the odd occasion villages are sold outright to another operator.

A worked example is a good idea and I don't mind sharing seeing as I was closely involved in the selection process.
My Mum had a lovely big unit at the Peninsula Club in Whangaparaoa. The Peninsula club was formerly a timeshare resort and had extensive recreational facilities and the units were quite large and had lovely sunrooms attached. Mum's unit was 111 sq meters and she really loved it there had a fabulous time and made many good friends.
I guess the large north facing block that her unit was in was built in the 1970's, perhaps late 1960's, it had plaster over concrete construction. Some of the units had very minor moisture ingress issues. Now the block is circa 50 years old and the units are so large the owners Arena Group decided that they will redevelop the whole block.

I understand that they are building considerably more smaller units in place and will probably make Mum's old unit into 2 new ones. They can't bowl that whole block until everyone moves out or are "encouraged" to move out into other facilities within the Arena group so they paid us out the net value of the unit $340,000 less 30% = $238,000 the other day after a 4 month agreed period (they stated the average resale timeframe for other units at the Peninsula club was 5 months) so I accepted 4 months at face value.

They had to front up with this loan repayment to Mum's estate and it could be several years before they can get all other residents out of that block and resell twice as many units probably for about $700,000 each....and therein lies the real gold of the business model.

Mum paid 340,000 11 years ago, we get $238,000 back and they will resell two units in the same amount of space for probably something like $1.4m after redevelopment and their gain will be tax free. Those numbers speak for themselves as to the attractiveness of the village business model.

Yes the liability must be recorded on the balance sheet to show a true and fair view and yes it ostensibly amounts to an interest free non repayable loan from various residents in perpetuity and yes that interest free loan gets bigger every time the unit resells and yes all gains are tax free to the retirement company. Can anyone see why I like the retirement village business model so much ;)

[tommy_d]

Frankly I find it astonishing that you only have to pay a 13% premium on NTA (based on $1.36 NTA at todays closing price) to own a high class, fully managed spread of NZ property, with a growth strategy and pays a dividend.( with NZ least troublesome tenants) It makes personally owning a domestic rental house utter madness.
It is an indictment on the financial ability's of average NZ`ders that would much prefer to own/ manage their own rental and all the associated costs and hassles while perceiving this sharemarket offering as "way too high risk."


yet anyone who bought a rental with 33% down for $600k say four years ago has been able to realise capital gain on $600k worth of asset for an entry cost of $200k and likely weighted interest cost of 3-4%/annum on $400k over that period. Go with conservative 50% capital gain over that period, and they've made $300k profit on $200k down. That's pretty good returns for the risk class, and even four years ago people were saying property prices had peaked. Many owners of a second or third properties will have become asset-equity millionaires several times over during the last five yars.

I can see why the average NZ-er might prefer a rental based on historic experience of New Zealanders. Then again, they could have just bought OCA at $0.60...

[thegreatestben]

Hard to get a mortgage from the bank to buy shares!

[Maverick]

yet anyone who bought a rental with 33% down for $600k say four years ago has been able to realise capital gain on $600k worth of asset for an entry cost of $200k and likely weighted interest cost of 3-4%/annum on $400k over that period. Go with conservative 50% capital gain over that period, and they've made $300k profit on $200k down. That's pretty good returns for the risk class, and even four years ago people were saying property prices had peaked. Many owners of a second or third properties will have become asset-equity millionaires several times over during the last five yars.

I can see why the average NZ-er might prefer a rental based on historic experience of New Zealanders. Then again, they could have just bought OCA at $0.60...
I guess some pushback was inevitable by speaking against owning rental properties , fair enough. Apologies now that I'm about to go really off topic but at the end I do mention OCA twice.:)

The handsome profit you describe above has 2 things going for it, the time period selected of the recent 4 years has been arguably the one of best times ever for substantial property gain and more importantly your example uses 200% leverage to maximize that high gain.

The average kiwi refuses to leverage to buy shares. For those with capital already it can be easily done by mortgaging a home to get a good chunk and/or leveraging existing shares through ASB margin lending- but you wont get as nearly as much credit. All interest is tax deductible of course unlike rental houses now. I have and probably always will use the tool of debt to enhance returns on equities, it has been enormously successful especially in the early days when my own capital was in short supply. Mention to anyone that you borrowed to buy a boat, no problem...but borrowing to by an income generating NZX stock, incredible risk taking!
(its true GreatestBen that banks wont lend you nearly as much for anything that isn't a house, but even that's got tougher now with a 40%LVR)

Had you bought a well run property company on the NZX 4 years ago and leveraged it 200% I would be very surprised if it didn't give a substantially better return than the very profitable rental example above . (that is after basic maintenance , real estate sales commission, general ownership fees and oh yes....capital gains tax).

I do accept that the enormous current of money that the general public commands , once all excited together about any asset in unison ( such as houses currently or even bitcoin )can produce some very good price rises for a finite period, even rocket lab doubled in a week based a bit of public euphoria -perhaps it really was based on everyone's knowledge of the space industry.

Owning good dividend paying companies ( who`s primary purpose is to maximize profits) and then compounding the returns over years will always beat private property, provided if its leveraged to the same extent.

OCA is an ideal company to invest in with this strategy that I've calculated should return 20% cagr , and with like for like leverage will beat privately held rentals hands down ( does anybody ever wonder why there no NZX listed domestic rental stocks?).

I know you have plenty of OCA TommyD, well done , so you will have an open mind to weigh things up for yourself and I suspect think this way already. I am saying though that most NZs are falsely obsessed with rental property to the exclusion of much better forms of property ownership out there, OCA being the one that stands out the most to me for now.

[Ggcc]

Hard to get a mortgage from the bank to buy shares!
Almost impossible for some unless you have previous business with bank. I knew someone who had over $3 million in shares plus a freehold house. The bank would not let him borrow/mortgage his house worth $100,000. He wanted to buy shares during the first pandemic drop

[RGR367]

Almost impossible for some unless you have previous business with bank. I knew someone who had over $3 million in shares plus a freehold house. The bank would not let him borrow/mortgage his house worth $100,000. He wanted to buy shares during the first pandemic drop

Most probably that he knew nothing about Margin Lending.

[Ggcc]

Most probably that he knew nothing about Margin Lending.
Nope he doesn’t. Maybe because he doesn’t use technology. I don’t know how he will survive in the coming years not owning a computer or cellphone, but hey has survived until now.

[tommy_d]

I guess some pushback was inevitable by speaking against owning rental properties , fair enough. Apologies now that I'm about to go really off topic but at the end I do mention OCA twice.:)

I know you have plenty of OCA TommyD, well done , so you will have an open mind to weigh things up for yourself and I suspect think this way already. I am saying though that most NZs are falsely obsessed with rental property to the exclusion of much better forms of property ownership out there, OCA being the one that stands out the most to me for now.
i haven't quoted the whole post, but think the whole post is great.

Reminds me of a mate a couple of years ago when i said i was focused on paying down mortgage debt. He looked at me like i was stupid, and then confirmed by asking whether i really didn't back myself to return greater than 4% on the sharemarket?!?!? I eventually took that advice
Same guy advised me to load up on SKL at $1.70-ish when he was doing so to the tune of high five figures. Should have taken that advice too.

[STr]

i haven't quoted the whole post, but think the whole post is great.

Reminds me of a mate a couple of years ago when i said i was focused on paying down mortgage debt. He looked at me like i was stupid, and then confirmed by asking whether i really didn't back myself to return greater than 4% on the sharemarket?!?!? I eventually took that advice
Same guy advised me to load up on SKL at $1.70-ish when he was doing so to the tune of high five figures. Should have taken that advice too.

LOL - has your mate got any advice for what we should be doing now ? :t_up:

[tommy_d]

Almost impossible for some unless you have previous business with bank. I knew someone who had over $3 million in shares plus a freehold house. The bank would not let him borrow/mortgage his house worth $100,000. He wanted to buy shares during the first pandemic drop
moral of that story, never finish paying off a mortgage, keep a 10k debt average on a revolving credit flexible mortgage with access to 30% (or name your poison) of the home value. Easy and immediate access to the money, don't even have to talk to anyone. A mate in dunedin had the same issue when he wanted to buy shares last march, but he asked to draw down against his equity for "home renovations" and got told "no, you won't be able to get a builder in anyway" - he reflected afterwards he should have said he wanted to use it to buy a boat and a new car...

[tommy_d]

good point, i haven't talked shares with him for a while. He's a bit limited in what he's allowed to buy cos blah blah market rules etc

actually - he did say "bro, don't quit your job and take a year off - you should be earning and saving and hitting that capital base"

oh well. I'll be unemployed two weeks from now. Guess i didn't take his advice on that one either. Next he'll be telling me not to head to europe without a plan, following that advice for now.

[thegreatestben]

I had a 200k Flexi facility last year in March, dropped most of it on HGH, OCA and ANZ. Very uneducated about the share market but it seemed like a good idea according to my gut. Jumped in early April, have learned many lessons on how to position yourself to maximise capability. I’ve fixed most of the lending now but still have a 50K Flexi.

We’ve got two new builds on the go and our place being renovated but our account and the portfolio balance keeps growing. Looking forward to watching OCA grow. Thanks to Mav and other top posters in the thread for helping our success.

[Ggcc]

I had a 200k Flexi facility last year in March, dropped most of it on HGH, OCA and ANZ. Very uneducated about the share market but it seemed like a good idea according to my gut. Jumped in early April, have learned many lessons on how to position yourself to maximise capability. I’ve fixed most of the lending now but still have a 50K Flexi.

We’ve got two new builds on the go and our place being renovated but our account and the portfolio balance keeps growing. Looking forward to watching OCA grow. Thanks to Mav and other top posters in the thread for helping our success.

That’s awesome to hear. Always enjoy the success stories of others. I wish I had the kahunas to go in big after the first drop last year. I bought some OCA for under 50 cents, but should have gone to town at the time. Oh well hindsight I’m still a happy Chappy

[FrankF]

Here is my first post in this forum. Thank you all for sharing information and analysis. I bought my first OCA shares today, hope will get some good returns as I am still learning how to invest in NZX :t_up:

[Maverick]

Here is my first post in this forum. Thank you all for sharing information and analysis. I bought my first OCA shares today, hope will get some good returns as I am still learning how to invest in NZX:t_up:
Welcome to the forum Frank. Enjoy the ride.

[Greekwatchdog]

2 new Board Member's

OCEANIA WELCOMES TWO NEW DIRECTORS TO THE BOARD
The Oceania Board announced today that it has appointed Rob Hamilton and Peter Dufaur as independent non-executive directors. The appointments will take effect from 17 September 2021.
Mr Hamilton is a respected member of the capital markets and finance community in New Zealand, with more than 30 years’ experience in senior executive roles. Mr Hamilton is currently a Director of Tourism Holdings Limited (including Chair of the Audit Committee). He was previously Chief Financial Officer at SkyCity Entertainment Group Limited and a Managing Director and Head of Investment Banking at Jarden (formerly First NZ Capital). Rob is also a member of the Auckland Grammar School Board of Trustees and has previously been a Board member on the New Zealand Olympic Committee.
Mr Dufaur has over 25 years’ experience in the New Zealand property market, including 10 years as Head of Development for Goodman Property Trust. During his time at Goodman Property Trust, Mr Dufaur was responsible for all of the Trust’s development activity and oversaw more than $1.5 billion of successful property development. Peter also sits on several private enterprise boards, including until recently, Chair of building products manufacturer Thermakraft. Peter is currently the Managing Director of Mayfair Group Limited, which is involved in property development, asset management and funds management across a wide variety of sectors in the New Zealand property market.
Oceania Chair Elizabeth Coutts said “We are delighted to have people of Rob and Peter’s calibre join our Board. They both bring an extensive range of skills and insights that they have gained from previous leadership roles within the finance and construction sectors. We are looking forward to Rob and Peter joining the Board and making a significant contribution to the future growth and success of Oceania.”
The Board has determined that Mr Hamilton and Mr Dufaur are Independent Directors pursuant to the NZX Listing Rules. Mr Hamilton and Mr Dufaur will hold office until Oceania’s next Annual Shareholders Meeting, at which point they will stand for election by shareholders.

[maclir]

And welcome to the two new directors

http://nzx-prod-s7fsd7f98s.s3-website-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/attachments/OCA/379294/354891.pdf

I see Greekwatchdog beat me to it.

[Beagle]

Very strong credentials and will add very useful depth to the board. Good stuff :)

[YoungBull]

On the odd occasion interest is paid on the refundable amount for a period of time but I would has at a guess it would be at a very low interest rate and in effect the company has what basically amounts to a non refundable interest free loan in perpetuity on most of its property, (apart from common area buildings and facilities), however the latter are funded through the 30% retention of the ORA.

"The village only pays interest on your exit payment when you leave after 6 months at the bank 30-day term deposit rate."

Source: https://www.consumer.org.nz/articles/retirement-villages

[Beagle]

The current 30 day Term Deposit rate at the BNZ is 0.15% per annum.

As I said a couple of days ago, ostensibly the company enjoys an ever increasing interest free loan in perpetuity from its residents and banks ever increasing tax free profits from that. Pretty cool business model isn't it ;)

[Beagle]

Construction of the fabulous Waimarie retirement village is being undertaken by well respected https://www.argon.co.nz/ The size of their crane on their is very impressive !
For the sake of our mental health Mrs B and I went for a drive around Tamaki drive today and ended up driving past the Waimarie site to check on progress, (none during level 4) but its definitely starting to take shape. I think they can be back on job on Wednesday under level 3 so that's great.

[Ggcc]

Construction of the fabulous Waimarie retirement village is being undertaken by well respected https://www.argon.co.nz/ The size of their crane on their is very impressive !
For the sake of our mental health Mrs B and I went for a drive around Tamaki drive today and ended up driving past the Waimarie site to check on progress, (none during level 4) but its definitely starting to take shape. I think they can be back on job on Wednesday under level 3 so that's great.
They just need to be able to get building materials. Napier airport can’t get jib and once they can can’t get gib screws. Getting materials is getting tough.

[Waltzing]

"back on job on Wednesday under level 3"

Mr B will be able to whatch the crane actually moving... big step forward...

Thought Hamilton would have to move to level 3 today... lucky very lucky ...the wellington science boys and girls not happy letting auckland out and about...

[Blue Skies]

I see Ryman want all staff working at their Retirement Villages & Age Care facilities to be vaccinated, a huge selling point for potential residents I would think.
Has anyone heard any mention of OCA's position on this ?

In Australia, it is now mandatory for all aged care workers to be vaccinated.
In France also, all Health workers must be vaccinated with at least 1 jab from Wednesday or face suspension without pay.

According to Employment NZ's website, under current law, companies cannot require any individual to be vaccinated, but can insist that certain work is only carried out by vaccinated workers where there is high risk of transmitting Covid to others & the consequences of that being severe illness to others.

[FatTed]

I'm Sure they can mandate COVID vaccination for any new employee and new resident.

[Blue Skies]

I'm Sure they can mandate COVID vaccination for any new employee and new resident.


Would you want existing unvaccinated employees looking after your elderly parents though?
Something exercising the minds of many employers but esp companies like OCA right now.
Imagine the fury if an employee who refused vaccination introduced Covid into a Retirement village/ Aged Care, resulting in deaths.

[FatTed]

No, I think all Health Care workers should be vaccinated, hardly a new concept. At present they need Hep B Smallpox

[Blue Skies]

No, I think all Health Care workers should be vaccinated, hardly a new concept. At present they need Hep B Smallpox

That is a very good point & sets an important precedent.

[justakiwi]

If one is working in a hospital perhaps, but not everywhere. As a caregiver for a non-for profit organisation, there was no requirement whatsoever for me to have any specific vaccinations, when I started in my role. I don't recall even being asked about my vaccination status. I have had neither of those vaccinations.


No, I think all Health Care workers should be vaccinated, hardly a new concept. At present they need Hep B Smallpox

[FatTed]

Was thinking of the hospital setting, good thing everyone else had smallpox vaccination. so that it became eradicated 1979

[Ggcc]

From what I heard caregivers at Oceania in Hawkes Bay are being told to wear full PPE gear if they are unvaccinated. They don't have to if they are fully vaccinated. Not too sure that is a great policy, as both can infect the patient. I am guessing they are making it difficult for those that choose to not get vaccinated.

[Beagle]

Would you want existing unvaccinated employees looking after your elderly parents though?
Something exercising the minds of many employers but esp companies like OCA right now.
Imagine the fury if an employee who refused vaccination introduced Covid into a Retirement village/ Aged Care, resulting in deaths.

Exactly. RYM looking to make vaccination mandatory. I think OCA should follow suit.

[Ggcc]

Exactly. RYM looking to make vaccination mandatory. I think OCA should follow suit.
Unless the borders open up to caregivers, rest homes are all massively understaffed. Lots of young ones I speak to don’t want the vaccine and will leave if forced to get one. Some young ones just don’t like being told what to, even if it’s good for them.

[Beagle]

Unless the borders open up to caregivers, rest homes are all massively understaffed. Lots of young ones I speak to don’t want the vaccine and will leave if forced to get one. Some young ones just don’t like being told what to, even if it’s good for them.
Sounds just like my wife lol. I don't have the answer but the question is why should OCA bear the ongoing cost of full PPE gear for those that don't want to be vaccinated ?
I can easily foresee the day where unvaccinated people are treated like second class high risk citizens. Entry to all sorts of venues will be off limits and they will find it hard to get employment in any role that involves front line service to the public. Their choice but there will be consequences that flow from that choice.

[FatTed]

In a population that is 90% vaccinated the unvaccinated will become the vulnerable population and gradually die off.

[winner69]

In a population that is 90% vaccinated the unvaccinated will become the vulnerable population and gradually die off.

Hope they vaccinate most of the kids then

[Rawz]

In a population that is 90% vaccinated the unvaccinated will become the vulnerable population and gradually die off.

That’s how life works. The smart strong genes pass on while the dumb genes die away 😃

[BlackPeter]

In a population that is 90% vaccinated the unvaccinated will become the vulnerable population and gradually die off.

Just lets hope they don't occupy too much valuable ICU space during the process of "dying off", shall we?

[FatTed]

Thats the real danger the Health system being overwhelmed, it has no spare capacity.

[BlackPeter]

Thats the real danger the Health system being overwhelmed, it has no spare capacity.

So true ... and this is my real beef with the anti-vaxxers. No issue if they go after catching the virus just to a lonely place and quietly roll up, but the problem is they first infect plenty of others and then they try to monopolize rare health resources which others would need as well.

[peat]

so much yawnsville

give it a rest on every fricken thread.

lovin those Melbourne tradies I reckon they'll know how to stick it to a mandate.

[Onion]

That’s how life works. The smart strong genes pass on while the dumb genes die away 

That's not how genetics works Rawz. The less able can breed and pass on their genes easily enough before they die away!

How many people die of obesity/drinking/drugs/stupidity BEFORE they have kids? If they dies of those things after they have kids it is too late!

We ought to be feeding our children loads of fast food and exposing them to pollution BEFORE they even get to their teens -- that way the ones that have genetic characteristics resistant to those factors will have a chance to shine BEFORE they have children. ;)

[Beagle]

Govt looking at mandating the vaccine for healthcare workers. Seems fair enough to me. Really good way to weed out of the system those that don't really put the needs of those they're serving as their number one priority. Really...if the needs of the most vulnerable are not front and central to all healthcare workers thinking then its crystal clear they've chosen the wrong occupation and need to move on.

Chippies will be back in full swing today working on OCA's new villages.

[Bjauck]

…
Chippies will be back in full swing today working on OCA's new villages. I went for a swab test early this morning. There were lots of tradies and construction vehicles on the road (Botany-East Auckland.) It was like rush hour ten years ago.

[tommy_d]

I can easily foresee the day where unvaccinated people are treated like second class high risk citizens. Entry to all sorts of venues will be off limits and they will find it hard to get employment in any role that involves front line service to the public. Their choice but there will be consequences that flow from that choice.

already the case in several countries in Europe.

[Oakwood]

already the case in several countries in Europe.

Yep over here in London I have a NHS confirmation card in my Apple Wallet on my phone for double vaccination - recently to go to a music festival this had to be shown or proof of a negative test within 48hrs. People and the Govt are lukewarm on vaccine passporting in general, but it seems like it's at the discretion of organisers to what the rules are. Legislation about to be passed around mandatory vaccination for care home staff from next month I believe.

[Maverick]

What a treat on the iPad this morning! I see an advert pop up for Eden now selling. :)
That just might save the HY1 result to some degree.
I recently recalculated/posted a ho- hum result because of Aucklands longer lockdown but this offers a glimmer of hope and suggests it might not be too bad after all .

SUM said recently 60% of their new offerings were pre sold so logically OCA should have some presales sneak in before month end too . I do know the Sands and Meadow bank sold the most expensive stuff first when they opened. To be clear OCA have never mentioned anything about presales so I'm just joining my own dots here.
Regardless whether they sell many this 1HY , because they delivered on time they will sell a nice bunch this FY no doubt whatsoever.

Looks like despite the lockdown and chronic supply issues that OCA has managed to deliver on its original schedule . (Eden was there only scheduled completion this 1HY.). They have never missed a target yet despite some enormous disruptions, well done guys.