OCA - Oceania Group - retirement villages

[Joh13]

Looking at the depth, it looks as though the seller maybe be taking a breather or maybe finished. It doesn’t look like there are any large sells between $1.41 and $1.50 currently. $1.39 May have been the last push.

[mike2020]

I think standard advice is to take it easy for the next day at least after a vaccination. The poster who wondered which was worse - the jab or Russian roulette - was being mischievous.

Ah the 'mischievous'. We do need more of them! I have wondered how many people who come into contact with 'mischievous' people become 'mischievous' and join the 'mischievous' movement.
Todays numbers 149 hospitalized since the start of this only 3 vaccinated. Gives you some hope for the vaccinated villages getting through safely.

VACCINATED NOT UN SORRY

[Beagle]

Looking at the depth, it looks as though the seller maybe be taking a breather or maybe finished. It doesn’t look like there are any large sells between $1.41 and $1.50 currently. $1.39 May have been the last push.

More than 1.6m shares traded already so someone took the seller(s) on and said game on mate let's bogie. Good to see.

[couta1]

More than 1.6m shares traded already so someone took the seller(s) on and said game on mate let's bogie. Good to see. Got myself a very stout holding once again along with my 2 others holdings being PAZ and FPH so fairly diversified.Lol

[Joh13]

It’ll be interesting to see who(s) the seller is.

[couta1]

It’ll be interesting to see who(s) the seller is. Up until last Thursday it was Craig's/Forbarr for a start.

[winner69]

Up until last Thursday it was Craig's/Forbarr for a start.

I thought Forbar was very bullish on OCA …..and telling their clients that

[couta1]

I thought Forbar was very bullish on OCA …..and telling their clients that Might have had a big client who needed a new deck or Covid bunker.

[Greekwatchdog]

For Bars latest where I posted on sector had OCA target of $1.90, ARV $2.50.. Cant remember on the other two SUM and RYM.

[Beagle]

Got myself a very stout holding once again along with my 2 others holdings being PAZ and FPH so fairly diversified.Lol

See signature line below.

[Baa_Baa]

I thought Forbar was very bullish on OCA …..and telling their clients that

26/3 outperform $1.70
14/4 outperform $1.80
8/9 outperform $1.90

$1.40 is a bargain.

[couta1]

See signature line below. I'm actually quite diversified with 3 stocks/kiwisaver/house/artwork plus a wife and a dog.

[davflaws]

I'm actually quite diversified with 3 stocks/kiwisaver/house/artwork plus a wife and a dog.

Could you/would you sell Mrs Couta? And if you couldn't or wouldn't - would you be allowed to sell the dog?

[allfromacell]

Got myself a very stout holding once again along with my 2 others holdings being PAZ and FPH so fairly diversified.Lol


Me too, happy to have over half the ‘folio invested in OCA again. Feels good, very calm, almost therapeutic.

[couta1]

Could you/would you sell Mrs Couta? And if you couldn't or wouldn't - would you be allowed to sell the dog? Mrs Couta is priceless and a legend in the retirement sector (She would never say that so im saying it for her) and is self funding, and the dog well he's also priceless but is not self funding.

[couta1]

Me too, happy to have over half the ‘folio invested in OCA again. Feels good, very calm, almost therapeutic. You can lose big time with large holdings but you can also make big time, its a double edged sword but I reckon you'll be safe from a "Milky Meltdown "with this one.

[Beagle]

Not sure a dog counts as diversification mate but the return on investment in terms of love is right off the charts as long as you don't mind dealing with the regular golden and brown "dividends" they produce lol

[fiasco]

This takes me back to when we use to discuss SUM vs RYM prices, didn't that change after a period of time! OCA will have it's time.

[alokdhir]

You can lose big time with large holdings but you can also make big time, its a double edged sword but I reckon you'll be safe from a "Milky Meltdown "with this one.

U need to see the nature of the stock also for going big ...ATM is / was of speculative origin with just 2 years of sharp up move ...where as FPH / OCA are more defensive stocks with FPH having almost 10 years of excellent returns track record while OCA is property based NAV which never goes zero ....50% in OCA is better then 30% in ATM or PX1

[couta1]

Stout close.:cool:

[Joh13]

Stout close.:cool: Very nice, should be a pretty quick return to $1.50 when and if that seller is done.

Anyway, not concerned with the short term price, $7.00 in 10 years is what I’m looking at.

[winner69]

Our Brett ws on radio this morning

Said they and the others waiting for the government to come up with a plan

Really would like to see his residents getting 'rewarded' for getting jabbed by allowing family to come and see them ...or something like that.

Not happy with government - made that clear

[Maverick]

At last we are seeing normal , "regular" sized buys getting onto the NZX after 2.5 weeks of absence.
Yesterday could very well be the day the large off market selling completed and normal market function resumes. If it has ( and the brokers aren't just at a tool box meeting this morning ) , then this just might be the finish of the relentless selling.....way too early to be sure though but its looking good so far.

[winner69]

Simple fundamental analysis of OCA - you don't need to know any more.

1) Retirement is here to stay and will continue to grow in to the distant future
2) OCA currently valued at significantly lower multiples than RYM and SUM

so a compelling BUY .... now and probably even in years time so why worry about a couple cents here or there today

BUY BUY ....and its CHEAP CHEAP

[Beagle]

Help you guys out with understanding the most complex accounts presented by any company on the NZX.
Look for the term "Total Comprehensive income" in the presentation. That's the real earnings including all increases in the value of property during the year. The vast majority of earnings come from property so other methods of measuring earnings are far less relevant in my opinion.
Some practice for the forthcoming result next month http://nzx-prod-s7fsd7f98s.s3-website-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/attachments/OCA/372535/346452.pdf
See page 16 - Total Comprehensive Income $167.8m = total earnings of 23.8 cents per share for the 10 month period (annualized 28.6 cps).

I have learned that if you think of their real earnings any other way you're missing the point that the real value accretion to shareholders comes from property.

[couta1]

Simple fundamental analysis of OCA - you don't need to know any more.

1) Retirement is here to stay and will continue to grow in to the distant future
2) OCA currently valued at significantly lower multiples than RYM and SUM

so a compelling BUY .... now and probably even in years time so why worry about a couple cents here or there today

BUY BUY ....and its CHEAP CHEAP In a nutshell.:cool:

[dabsman]

Sorry boring back office question. With the change of dates with OCA the dividend that was paid in Feb historically now moved to December? Assuming it has as the August divvy moved to June. I cant find this anywhere but I'm sure would have been announced somewhere.

[alokdhir]

Help you guys out with understanding the most complex accounts presented by any company on the NZX.
Look for the term "Total Comprehensive income" in the presentation. That's the real earnings including all increases in the value of property during the year. The vast majority of earnings come from property so other methods of measuring earnings are far less relevant in my opinion.
Some practice for the forthcoming result next month http://nzx-prod-s7fsd7f98s.s3-website-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/attachments/OCA/372535/346452.pdf
See page 16 - Total Comprehensive Income $167.8m = total earnings of 23.8 cents per share for the 10 month period (annualized 28.6 cps).

I have learned that if you think of their real earnings any other way you're missing the point that the real value accretion to shareholders comes from property.


Just to clear my doubt ...what part of general property price increase should be taken as shareholders part ...as I am sure they will have some capital gains sharing arrangement with the occupants too ?

[Rawz]

Help you guys out with understanding the most complex accounts presented by any company on the NZX.
Look for the term "Total Comprehensive income" in the presentation. That's the real earnings including all increases in the value of property during the year. The vast majority of earnings come from property so other methods of measuring earnings are far less relevant in my opinion.
Some practice for the forthcoming result next month http://nzx-prod-s7fsd7f98s.s3-website-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/attachments/OCA/372535/346452.pdf
See page 16 - Total Comprehensive Income $167.8m = total earnings of 23.8 cents per share for the 10 month period (annualized 28.6 cps).

I have learned that if you think of their real earnings any other way you're missing the point that the real value accretion to shareholders comes from property.

I dare not dive too deep into the accounts because they can be quite confusing and complex as you say. I instead cheat a bit and read posts on here from the likes of you, Mav and W69 to get a better understanding of the financials.

The highlighted part of your post is why I sold my KPG and ploughed most of it into OCA. A better property co.

[BlackPeter]

Just to clear my doubt ...what part of general property price increase should be taken as shareholders part ...as I am sure they will have some capital gains sharing arrangement with the occupants too ?

Why would you be sure about this? To the best of my knowledge does none of the large NZ retirement villages share capital gains with their residents ... unless they are share holders as well :):

On the bright side for residents ... if the property value drops, they don't need to share the losses either ...

[winner69]

Help you guys out with understanding the most complex accounts presented by any company on the NZX.
Look for the term "Total Comprehensive income" in the presentation. That's the real earnings including all increases in the value of property during the year. The vast majority of earnings come from property so other methods of measuring earnings are far less relevant in my opinion.
Some practice for the forthcoming result next month http://nzx-prod-s7fsd7f98s.s3-website-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/attachments/OCA/372535/346452.pdf
See page 16 - Total Comprehensive Income $167.8m = total earnings of 23.8 cents per share for the 10 month period (annualized 28.6 cps).

I have learned that if you think of their real earnings any other way you're missing the point that the real value accretion to shareholders comes from property.

Ha ha - glad you finally learnt :t_up: .....and seen the light of day

[alokdhir]

Why would you be sure about this? To the best of my knowledge does none of the large NZ retirement villages share capital gains with their residents ... unless they are share holders as well :):

On the bright side for residents ... if the property value drops, they don't need to share the losses either ...

I thought I saw many recent advertisements of new units or house type developments within villages saying buyers get to keep part capital gains too ...also they are resalable property thru them of course ...so thought maybe overall there is some criteria of sharing capital gains ...after all occupants buy their accomodation not rent it

[Beagle]

Ha ha - glad you finally learnt :t_up: .....and seen the light of day

LOL, yeah, sometimes being a bean counter and having to comply with accounting standards is a curse.

[macduffy]

Why would you be sure about this? To the best of my knowledge does none of the large NZ retirement villages share capital gains with their residents ... unless they are share holders as well :):

On the bright side for residents ... if the property value drops, they don't need to share the losses either ...

Was Alokdhir speculating about possible future govt action?

[Beagle]

Just to clear my doubt ...what part of general property price increase should be taken as shareholders part ...as I am sure they will have some capital gains sharing arrangement with the occupants too ?

Total comprehensive income to the company is exactly that. If there are any capital gain sharing arrangements in the future it will already be accounted for by the company before declaring that figure.

[alokdhir]

Total comprehensive income to the company is exactly that. If there are any capital gain sharing arrangements in the future it will already be accounted for by the company before declaring that figure.

So one can safely assume it will follow long term property appreciation rate of 7% plus some business value appreciation too . So investing in aged care is almost investing in property plus more ...as residents dont get any capital gains as per BP so shareholders get all that !!

[winner69]

So one can safely assume it will follow long term property appreciation rate of 7% plus some business value appreciation too . So investing in aged care is almost investing in property plus more ...as residents dont get any capital gains as per BP so shareholders get all that !!

I think yu are beginning to catch on mate

Don't forget its 7% pa on existing property PLUS the gains on future developments

[BlackPeter]

I thought I saw many recent advertisements of new units or house type developments within villages saying buyers get to keep part capital gains too ...also they are resalable property thru them of course ...so thought maybe overall there is some criteria of sharing capital gains ...after all occupants buy their accomodation not rent it

Interesting .... haven't seen these ads (maybe you can give us a link?), but anyway - if they propose this now, it is new. None of the retirement villages in NZ used to do that.

And just one other clarification - the residents (nobody calls them occupants ...) do neither buy nor rent their accommodation. What they actually do buy is the right to live in this accommodation for the reminder of their natural life. Different thing.

Back to the income, though - beagles comment above applies, i.e. no matter whether the providers share at some stage part of the capital gains with the residents or not, they will do the accounting for you and tell in their books which part is theirs (and with that the shareholders :);

[alokdhir]

I think yu are beginning to catch on mate

Don't forget its 7% pa on existing property PLUS the gains on future developments

But why then people buy small 3 bedroom houses for 750K in the villages when they are not investing in a home as they dont get the future gain ...its better to pay monthly total charges then buy outright ?

[alokdhir]

Interesting .... haven't seen these ads (maybe you can give us a link?), but anyway - if they propose this now, it is new. None of the retirement villages in NZ used to do that.

And just one other clarification - the residents (nobody calls them occupants ...) do neither buy nor rent their accommodation. What they actually do buy is the right to live in this accommodation for the reminder of their natural life. Different thing.

Back to the income, though - beagles comment above applies, i.e. no matter whether the providers share at some stage part of the capital gains with the residents or not, they will do the accounting for you and tell in their books which part is theirs (and with that the shareholders :);

Thanks BP for your help ...IMO then larger the land and closer its to big city more valuable is that village thus company so the SP ...also they should be as safe a buying residential house for investment ...instead of rent ...u get dividend ...rest all same on business model ...plus EV of aggressive management

[Beagle]

But why then people buy small 3 bedroom houses for 750K in the villages when they are not investing in a home as they dont get the future gain ...its better to pay monthly total charges then buy outright ?

OCA's average demographic is 85 years old. The answer to your question is simple. People want the care and support these villages provide with no worries about the maintenance and upkeep of their unit and its grounds. They also want to enjoy the friendships and camaraderie of the village, the common area facilities provided, trips out, village cafeteria and so on. In a nutshell when people get to this age they just want to be "looked after".

[alokdhir]

OCA's average demographic is 85 years old. The answer to your question is simple. People want the care and support these villages provide with no worries about the maintenance and upkeep of their unit and its grounds. They also want to enjoy the friendships and camaraderie of the village, the common area facilities provided, trips out, village cafeteria and so on. In a nutshell when people get to this age they just want to be "looked after".

Thanks buddy for your help ...fully understood their value and business model ...its almost a failsafe long term investment if done closer to its current intrinsic value of property ...No wonder U and all veterans are so bullish on OCA ..:t_up:

PS : Took a medium position at average 1.41 ...lets c how it behaves in next 2-3 years time frame

[Beagle]

https://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/retirement-boss-calls-on-govt-to-allow-aged-care-residents-to-see-families/ZKLQBUXXNCX5JWEHHC46ZFLT7A/?utm_source=newsletter&utm_medium=nzh_email&utm_campaign=Premium_Business_Briefing_Newsletter&uuid=ae2dd95d629344ca8119b12a0d7d7338
Paywalled
Excerpt "The boss of a retirement village operator is calling on the Government to allow aged care residents to reconnect with their loved ones.
Oceania Healthcare chief executive Brent Pattison says that the current restrictions are weighing heavily on the mental health of his residents.
Under the current conditions, Aucklanders have been allowed to finally start extending their bubbles to include households, but this does not include aged care residents". Contains some very somber personal stories in the comments section of how this is impacting people and their elderly loved ones.

I have some personal experience of this last year when my Mum was locked down for a while in her rest home. It was incredibly tough on her and we really felt it too.

Well done to our man Brent for advocating on the old folks behalf. Not just a brilliant investment banker after all :t_up:

[winner69]

https://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/retirement-boss-calls-on-govt-to-allow-aged-care-residents-to-see-families/ZKLQBUXXNCX5JWEHHC46ZFLT7A/?utm_source=newsletter&utm_medium=nzh_email&utm_campaign=Premium_Business_Briefing_Newsletter&uuid=ae2dd95d629344ca8119b12a0d7d7338
Paywalled
Excerpt "The boss of a retirement village operator is calling on the Government to allow aged care residents to reconnect with their loved ones.
Oceania Healthcare chief executive Brent Pattison says that the current restrictions are weighing heavily on the mental health of his residents.
Under the current conditions, Aucklanders have been allowed to finally start extending their bubbles to include households, but this does not include aged care residents". Contains some very somber personal stories in the comments section of how this is impacting people and their elderly loved ones.

I have some personal experience of this last year when my Mum was locked down for a while in her rest home. It was incredibly tough on her and we really felt it too.

Well done to our man Brent for advocating on the old folks behalf. Not just a brilliant investment banker after all :t_up:

Those were the words ….live on radio you sense his real frustration at lack of government inaction and ‘plan’ ..mayde even grumpy would be a better description

[couta1]

Those were the words ….live on radio you sense his real frustration at lack of government inaction and ‘plan’ ..mayde even grumpy would be a better description I can see Brent and Beagle are going to get on real fine, B&B anyone.

[Beagle]

I can see Brent and Beagle are going to get on real fine, B&B anyone.

B needs to BBB (Buy Beagle Brunch), have a good one on one chat and then we'll be mates ;)

[winner69]

Oceania Head Nurse want residents to be free from lockdown

https://www.rnz.co.nz/news/national/453498/auckland-aged-care-residents-struggling-with-isolation-in-lockdown

[winner69]

OMG …..September median house price down 6.5% from August nationally

Better adjust profit models for H2

https://www.reinz.co.nz/Media/Default/Statistic%20Documents/2021/Residential/September/REINZ%20Monthly%20Property%20Report%20-%20September%202021.pdf

[BlackPeter]

OMG …..September median house price down 6.5% from August nationally

Better adjust profit models for H2

https://www.reinz.co.nz/Media/Default/Statistic%20Documents/2021/Residential/September/REINZ%20Monthly%20Property%20Report%20-%20September%202021.pdf

I guess the bigger picture still looks bright:


Median prices for residential property across New Zealand increased by 15.4% to $795,000 in September 2021 compared to $689,000 in September 2020, according to the latest data from the Real Estate Institute of New Zealand (REINZ), source of the most complete and accurate real estate data in New Zealand.

If you ask me - residential property is ways too dear in NZ, but our unfortunately not so gifted government does whatever they can to make it still more unaffordable. Bright times for owners of REIT's will continue and the have nots sit deep in the proverbial ...

[Waltzing]

free from lock down?

modellers says aucklands number are going to spike up, not down.

no one is getting out of auckland.

maybe free after xmas from lock downs.

but for over 90 percent double dosed NZ?

not this month.

Housing a bubble? Noooo surely not.

[winner69]

free from lock down?

modellers says aucklands number are going to spike up, not down.

no one is getting out of auckland.

maybe free after xmas from lock downs.

but for over 90 percent double dosed NZ?

not this month.

Housing a bubble? Noooo surely not.

I better use the HPI numbers

Nationally 2.0% up from August ....last three months +6.4% and last 12 months +30.4%

Whew ... pleased with that

[Waltzing]

"+30.4%"

:eek2:

wall street 1920's , they will be plastered this new years.... dont drink and drive!!!

[allfromacell]

I better use the HPI numbers

Nationally 2.0% up from August ....last three months +6.4% and last 12 months +30.4%

Whew ... pleased with that

I've always used HPI, not sure why anyone bothers with median or mean when much more accurate metrics are available. I guess people just pick and choose whichever more aligns with their bias.

Very positive for OCA and the whole sector, especially OCA whom haven't increased their prices by as much as the others in the sector yet. Huge amounts of embedded value.

[Beagle]

The average age of entry to OCA is about 85, (they are targeting the older demographic compared to other sector players).
Most residents shifting in are significantly downsizing from a larger home and accordingly the price they pay is significantly less than what they sold their home for.
Most are making needs based decisions irrespective of what's going on the in the market and they are selling their homes and buying an apartment or care suite on the same market.
Only a small fraction of the gains in real estate over the last year appears to have been factored into OCA unit pricing and there is significant headroom for price increases in their units absorbing previous gains in the market overall, (source recent Forsyth Barr report)
A drop in the Auckland market while we are under lockdown surely is already expected by most on here.
I am not expecting a change to level 3 restrictions in Auckland anytime soon.

[Waltzing]

Two policies, zero cases outside auckland, suppression in auckland.

as interest rates rise cyclical factors come into play.

high prices for land and building now the New Normal.

Amended, here for another year then.

They cant do another 20 percent can they?

Then thing could really get ugly.

[alokdhir]

The average age of entry to OCA is about 85, (they are targeting the older demographic compared to other sector players).
Most residents shifting in are significantly downsizing from a larger home and accordingly the price they pay is significantly less than what they sold their home for.
Most are making needs based decisions irrespective of what's going on the in the market and they are selling their homes and buying an apartment or care suite on the same market.
Only a small fraction of the gains in real estate over the last year appears to have been factored into OCA unit pricing and there is significant headroom for price increases in their units absorbing previous gains in the market overall, (source recent Forsyth Barr report)
A drop in the Auckland market while we are under lockdown surely is already expected by most on here.
I am not expecting a change to level 3 restrictions in Auckland anytime soon.

Another clarification about what u told me before ...People buy right to live lifelong in the unit ...what happens to unit after they pass away ...Cost paid to company is gone and unit comes back to company for resale or something is paid to legal heirs also ?

[peat]

Another clarification about what u told me before ...People buy right to live lifelong in the unit ...what happens to unit after they pass away ...Cost paid to company is gone and unit comes back to company for resale or something is paid to legal heirs also ?

you need to do research bro.
you dont understand how this business model works.
You shouldnt really expect everyone else to explain it to you - although forum members are very patient mostly.
Its your money so you need to DYOR

read one of the contracts

[jimdog31]

you need to do research bro.
you dont understand how this business model works.
You shouldnt really expect everyone else to explain it to you - although forum members are very patient mostly.
Its your money so you need to DYOR

read one of the contracts

To be fair to alokhdir, once hes up to speed on how OCA works he’ll be an asset to this thread, so lets give him all the info he asks for.

He’s FPH’s version of Maverick on the FPH thread so lets get him
up to speed over here

[dobby41]

Another clarification about what u told me before ...People buy right to live lifelong in the unit ...what happens to unit after they pass away ...Cost paid to company is gone and unit comes back to company for resale or something is paid to legal heirs also ?

Rough concept for you.
The major companies have a 'deferred maintenance fee' of 20-30%.
So you buy a right for $500k
You pay your fees for years
You die, your heirs get $500k minus the DMF (doesn't matter what the place is worth now).
You also only get that once the place is sold.
The company refurbishes the place and sells for lots of $ more.
They share that 'profit' with the shareholders.

[Waltzing]

Its about now the the gold stuff in the ground starts to look good.

If this stuff goes another 20% in 12 months nerves will start to twitch.

And some draconian tax law will be passed late at night.

Then you will hear a lot of loud barking!

[BlackPeter]

Rough concept for you.
The major companies have a 'deferred maintenance fee' of 20-30%.
So you buy a right for $500k
You pay your fees for years
You die, your heirs get $500k minus the DMF (doesn't matter what the place is worth now).
You also only get that once the place is sold.
The company refurbishes the place and sells for lots of $ more.
They share that 'profit' with the shareholders.

Good summary. If anybody wants to do a bit more research about the retirement village model without scrutinizing the contracts ... here is a good place as any to start:

https://www.moneyhub.co.nz/retirement-villages.html

[alokdhir]

Rough concept for you.
The major companies have a 'deferred maintenance fee' of 20-30%.
So you buy a right for $500k
You pay your fees for years
You die, your heirs get $500k minus the DMF (doesn't matter what the place is worth now).
You also only get that once the place is sold.
The company refurbishes the place and sells for lots of $ more.
They share that 'profit' with the shareholders.

Thanks buddy for your kind help ...Reading the last post about DYOR ...it will stop me from asking for help here ...I actually thought this is a place to help people with the knowledge we have rather then everyone keeps learning the hard way ...I am happy to share my thoughts ...some mayn't be so forthcoming .

It seems on paper that its win win for companies and unit holders mainly get happy golden years for which they pay . So its not an investment for them but more of service and facilities and like minded , aged fellows .

Thanks again

[dobby41]

So its not an investment for them but more of service and facilities and like minded , aged fellows .

Thanks again

No it's not an investment for them - it is a peace of mind.
I explained to my parents that the lack of capital gain wasn't their problem - they'd be dead.

[Beagle]

And some draconian tax law will be passed late at night.

Then you will hear a lot of loud barking!
You've identified the key risk nobody wants to talk about. Spindy and her woke kindergarten cops saying its not fair and all those poor old people have been duped. We have seen from her radical upheaval of the laws pertaining to interest deducibility nothing is off limits when its comes to punishing so called evil capitalists who are perceived to be afflicting the little people.

Good summary. If anybody wants to do a bit more research about the retirement village model without scrutinizing the contracts ... here is a good place as any to start:

https://www.moneyhub.co.nz/retirement-villages.html
^^^^^ This - Must read for newbies.
Some excellent reading in there for anyone wanting to get up to speed on this sector.
Also some stuff in here pertaining to Oceania itself https://www.oceaniahealthcare.co.nz/

[Biscuit]

.........
You die, your heirs get $500k minus the DMF (doesn't matter what the place is worth now).
.......

Sounds great for shareholders, as long as the place is worth more.

[Waltzing]

Good points MR B.

and even greater argument for diversification.

[dobby41]

Sounds great for shareholders, as long as the place is worth more.

If the place is worth less don't you get the lesser sum?
The 'house' never loses (overall).

I did say it was a rough concept :)

[Waltzing]

expect FOMO to hit this stock.

[couta1]

Thanks buddy for your kind help ...Reading the last post about DYOR ...it will stop me from asking for help here ...I actually thought this is a place to help people with the knowledge we have rather then everyone keeps learning the hard way ...I am happy to share my thoughts ...some mayn't be so forthcoming .

It seems on paper that its win win for companies and unit holders mainly get happy golden years for which they pay . So its not an investment for them but more of service and facilities and like minded , aged fellows .

Thanks again Just think of this stock as an essential service.

[BlackPeter]

expect FOMO to hit this stock.

I love FOMO ... from a selfish holder perspective :) ;

[justakiwi]

At last. Someone gets it.


Just think of this stock as an essential service.

[alokdhir]

Just think of this stock as an essential service.

Problem with essential services is that they tend to be most on the Govt watch list for control and directives which can translate shareholder's wealth into vote banks for them . Aged people is big group to be pampered or made promises . Capital sharing can be most fair sounding directive possible ahead ....:p

[justakiwi]

Maybe, but you have to remember two things. Firstly the government pays these providers a lot of money for the care of residents who qualify for subsidized care.

Secondly, the government needs these providers.All of them. There is no way the government can provide this service themselves as part of the public health system. They are 100% dependent/reliant on these providers to meet the growing need for aged care - villas, serviced/unserviced apartments, care beds, hospital care beds, and dementia care. The need for all of these services is going to continue to grow substantially. Forever.

Which means the government has to be very careful in terms of forcing any "requirements" onto providers. If they push them to far, providers will be forced to increase fees significantly (including the fee for subsidized care), and /or reduce their care services (as they are the least profitable side of the business).

The government simply can't afford to let that happen.


Problem with essential services is that they tend to be most on the Govt watch list for control and directives which can translate shareholder's wealth into vote banks for them . Aged people is big group to be pampered or made promises . Capital sharing can be most fair sounding directive possible ahead ....:p

[couta1]

Problem with essential services is that they tend to be most on the Govt watch list for control and directives which can translate shareholder's wealth into vote banks for them . Aged people is big group to be pampered or made promises . Capital sharing can be most fair sounding directive possible ahead ....:p The largest majority of these elderly folks don't want to have to worry about maintenance costs whilst living in their units or arranging stuff to be fixed, they also don't wont uncertain weekly fees which keep increasing, you can't have it both ways.

[BlackPeter]

Problem with essential services is that they tend to be most on the Govt watch list for control and directives which can translate shareholder's wealth into vote banks for them . Aged people is big group to be pampered or made promises . Capital sharing can be most fair sounding directive possible ahead ....:p

Look - this is a valid point and there are some supporting arguments as well as some opposing ... and yes, any investment has its risks - including political interference.

I understand as well that retirement villages are new on your watchlist- and therefore you will go through all the motions everybody else went through when they started to invest in retirement villages.

It might help though if you do some preparation / research and go through the last couple of years in this thread ... this would save us all from keeping to move in circles.

Looking forward to discuss something new with you ... :) :

[dameofdiv]

The largest majority of these elderly folks don't want to have to worry about maintenance costs whilst living in their units or arranging stuff to be fixed, they also don't wont uncertain weekly fees which keep increasing, you can't have it both ways.

Agreed, some privately owned retirement village offered commitment to never increase weekly fees for the entire occupation period. Makes sense cos the money is not really in the fees but the sale of units. Give a bit of carrot to incentivise sign-ups I suppose.

While I'm nowhere near the retirement age so I may not fully appreciate the lifestyle offered by these villages, but throughout the different villages that I came across, it is not hard to foresee that for many years to come, the demand for these units will continue to trend upwards which makes the sector very investable.

[Joh13]

Maybe, but you have to remember two things. Firstly the government pays these providers a lot of money for the care of residents who qualify for subsidized care.

Secondly, the government needs these providers.All of them. There is no way the government can provide this service themselves as part of the public health system. They are 100% dependent/reliant on these providers to meet the growing need for aged care - villas, serviced/unserviced apartments, care beds, hospital care beds, and dementia care. The need for all of these services is going to continue to grow substantially. Forever.

Which means the government has to be very careful in terms of forcing any "requirements" onto providers. If they push them to far, providers will be forced to increase fees significantly (including the fee for subsidized care), and /or reduce their care services (as they are the least profitable side of the business).

The government simply can't afford to let that happen.

100% Justakiwi, emergency departments and hospitals are already stretched… just imagine how hospitals would cope with a wave of 85 year olds needing hospital level care urgently, they wouldn’t be able to cope in my opinion.

[bull....]

100% Justakiwi, emergency departments and hospitals are already stretched… just imagine how hospitals would cope with a wave of 85 year olds needing hospital level care urgently, they wouldn’t be able to cope in my opinion.

never fear the govt has it covered you just have to use your telehealth app ( hope it works ) from the comfort of your place of abode. ambulance will arrive sometime in the future if its urgent

[RTM]

I’ve been saying there is regulatory risk for sometime. It’s one of the reasons that my holding in this sector has halved. COVID-19 Delta getting away in Auckland may reduce that risk. As in the same way COVID assisted Labour in the last election, it might well work against them in the next one,
IMO and FWIW.



You've identified the key risk nobody wants to talk about. Spindy and her woke kindergarten cops saying its not fair and all those poor old people have been duped. We have seen from her radical upheaval of the laws pertaining to interest deducibility nothing is off limits when its comes to punishing so called evil capitalists who are perceived to be afflicting the little people.

^^^^^ This - Must read for newbies.
Some excellent reading in there for anyone wanting to get up to speed on this sector.
Also some stuff in here pertaining to Oceania itself https://www.oceaniahealthcare.co.nz/

[Bjauck]

I’ve been saying there is regulatory risk for sometime. It’s one of the reasons that my holding in this sector has halved. COVID-19 Delta getting away in Auckland may reduce that risk. As in the same way COVID assisted Labour in the last election, it might well work against them in the next one,
IMO and FWIW. If the current ORA terms were made illegal, I wonder how much less profitable for developers and shareholders would the replacement be? How much extra risk would the residents moving into the villages be expected to shoulder? How much less security of tenure would the residents be expected to suffer?

If the replacement for current ORAs resulted in less profit for developers/retirement village companies then fewer units may be built and fewer care beds supplied as the result of less cross-subsidy from ORA profits. So more retired people may end up staying in their family sized homes, reducing the supply for younger home owners with young families, exacerbating the housing shortage? Also the government may need to find extra beds for the increasing demand from baby boomers for rest home and hospital level care.

At the moment, many of the homeowners buying (of their own free will with independent legal advice) an ORA pocket part of the untaxed capital gain derived from owning their house, while in effect transferring another part of this untaxed capital gain to the owners of the retirement village. How keen would any government be in taking up this cause?

[Baa_Baa]

I’ve been saying there is regulatory risk for sometime.

So have Oceania themselves, it would be remiss of them not to. From the 'Product Disclosure Statement - Secured Fixed Rate Bonds (https://images.oceaniahealthcare.co.nz/wp-content/uploads/2020/10/24184636/product-disclosure-statement-final.pdf)':

Page 3 ––Changes in regulation: Given the highly regulated
industry in which it operates, Oceania Healthcare’s
business and profitability could be negatively impacted
by any material change in the current regulatory
regimes applying to aged care and retirement villages.
Such changes could have an adverse impact on the
way Oceania Healthcare provides care to residents
or develops and operates its retirement villages, or
otherwise increase costs or restrict Oceania Healthcare’s
ability to generate revenue.

Page 20 Regulation risk
As noted above, Oceania Healthcare’s business operates
in a highly regulated industry. Future regulatory changes
to the aged care industry in which the care and retirement
village businesses operate may also have an adverse
impact on Oceania Healthcare and the way it and its
subsidiaries provide care to residents or develop and
operate retirement villages. In the care business, a change
in Government funding policy or a public inquiry could
lead to a change in the business model, an increase in
costs or a reduction in revenue and, in turn, adversely
affect Oceania Healthcare’s financial performance.
The retirement village business could become subject
to a greater degree of regulation as a result of additional
consumer protection requirements. A regulatory change
to the occupation right agreement model could restrict
Oceania Healthcare’s ability to generate revenue from its
retirement village units.
Oceania Healthcare is a member of, and has Board
representation on, both the New Zealand Aged Care
Association and the Retirement Villages Association
and this assists in keeping abreast of potential trends
and future regulatory changes in the sector.

I guess a serious investor in OCA would know all this and factor that into their own assessment of the investment.

[RTM]

How keen would any government be in taking up this cause?

I agree with all of that.
Let’s say Jacinda (I guess via the vaccine) sorts out COVID, gets re-elected with a resounding majority, well, she might consider she has a mandate to do more or less whatever she wants. Especially as it is unlikely a 4th term is in the offing. I still have a good sized holding….it’s just half what it used to be in the sector.

[850man]

I agree with all of that.
Let’s say Jacinda (I guess via the vaccine) sorts out COVID, gets re-elected with a resounding majority, well, she might consider she has a mandate to do more or less whatever she wants. Especially as it is unlikely a 4th term is in the offing. I still have a good sized holding….it’s just half what it used to be in the sector.

Regardless of the covid outcome, there are still 2 years and no shortage of will to deploy socialist state control laws under the current absolute majority mandate. :scared::t_down:

[Bjauck]

Regardless of the covid outcome, there are still 2 years and no shortage of will to deploy socialist state control laws under the current absolute majority mandate. :scared::t_down: The sector is already under a comprehensive state approved framework. I am not sure if taking up the fight on behalf of the beneficiaries of wealthier retired folk who feel they may have missed out on the capital gains from what has turned out to be a burgeoning property market, would be a socialist fight. In fact it would be a fight on behalf of the private owners of capital.

I doubt there would be much buyers remorse on the behalf of those who have enjoyed ORA ownership, if covid had resulted in what was the widely forecast property price down turn... The risk of that was of course mostly borne by the shareholders.

[Panda-NZ-]

Regardless of the covid outcome, there are still 2 years and no shortage of will to deploy socialist state control laws under the current absolute majority mandate.

Are these homes going to be owned by the state, probably not.

Instead they're given generous subsidies and an essentially tax free status.

[couta1]

Are these homes going to be owned by the state, probably not.

Instead they're given generous subsidies and an essentially tax free status. The sector is still massively underfunded by the Govt so not as generous as you might think and another reason they won't get too involved in the regulatory side of things, if they did they would need to cough up a whole lot more money for the care side of things.

[Greekwatchdog]

Well said Couta. Govt need these providers as they can't afford to look after residents. Be careful what you ask for as it will bite them if they push to hard.

[Panda-NZ-]

The sector is still massively underfunded by the Govt so not as generous as you might think and another reason they won't get too involved in the regulatory side of things, if they did they would need to cough up a whole lot more money for the care side of things.

There has been a large increase in life expectancy so they are being generous in terms of funding new places.

[Ggcc]

The sector is still massively underfunded by the Govt so not as generous as you might think and another reason they won't get too involved in the regulatory side of things, if they did they would need to cough up a whole lot more money for the care side of things.
The greater the amount of government interference and legislation, the greater the cost to the end customer. It is simple user pays and the government know this….. Well maybe not Jacinda and her troops.

[couta1]

The greater the amount of government interference and legislation, the greater the cost to the end customer. It is simple user pays and the government know this….. Well maybe not Jacinda and her troops. If they were stupid enough to interfere then the big players could simply reduce the size of their care operations to keep profits up, how would that go down with the Govt who would then have to find a solution to accommodate the overflow.

[artemis]

If they were stupid enough to interfere then the big players could simply reduce the size of their care operations to keep profits up, how would that go down with the Govt who would then have to find a solution to accommodate the overflow.

Excellent point, though suggest any mandated change would be to future contracts. If the government does bow to heirs who see their unearned inheritance impacted, then reckon the change will happen late in this term so the impact on supply is not noticed for the 2023 election.

Suppose it is too much to expect such a change to be in the 2023 manifesto so voters actually know what they are voting for.

[dobby41]

If they were stupid enough to interfere then the big players could simply reduce the size of their care operations to keep profits up, how would that go down with the Govt who would then have to find a solution to accommodate the overflow.

And that's a major point isn't it - the care side is just one side of the business.
Not the most profitable side either.

[davflaws]

The greater the amount of government interference and legislation, the greater the cost to the end customer. It is simple user pays and the government know this….. Well maybe not Jacinda and her troops.

Sounds as if you are advancing this as a universal principle. On a sharetrader forum I would expect to find most posters keen to privatise profits and socialise losses - but for that you do actually need a govt to be involved with regulation and control.

[Curly]

OCA still remains the runt of the pack. SUM, ARV, RYM and OCA a distant last in the eyes of the market. Did OCA miss an opportunity with ARV’s acquisition of Arena?

[kiwico]

If they were stupid enough to interfere then the big players could simply reduce the size of their care operations to keep profits up, how would that go down with the Govt who would then have to find a solution to accommodate the overflow.

Unfortunately you're applying sound logic. There is no suggestion our current ruling party can comprehend this.

[Ggcc]

Sounds as if you are advancing this as a universal principle. On a sharetrader forum I would expect to find most posters keen to privatise profits and socialise losses - but for that you do actually need a govt to be involved with regulation and control.
I feel that OCA will do best without government intervention. As a business wants repeat customers. If legislation comes into it the cost will be greater to the customer. Look what increasing minimum wage does. Ps my almost accurate quote came from Tim Brown from Infratil. Not too sure what you are trying to imply by privatise profits and socialise losses. Sounds like you have gone too deep into something quite simple.

[Bjauck]

I feel that OCA will do best without government intervention. As a business wants repeat customers. If legislation comes into it the cost will be greater to the customer. Look what increasing minimum wage does. Ps my almost accurate quote came from Tim Brown from Infratil. Not too sure what you are trying to imply by privatise profits and socialise losses. Sounds like you have gone too deep into something quite simple. The sector already has a heep of government legislation and "intervention" covering everything from ORAs to tax treatment.

As shareholders we would probably prefer that the regulations and framework not to be tweaked to reduce profitability. I think too it would be in the government's interests not to discourage further investment in the sector by reducing the profitability of independent units, no matter whether it is Labour or National in power. Especially not when there is a demand for more housing and a demand for more care beds.

[Muse]

OCA still remains the runt of the pack. SUM, ARV, RYM and OCA a distant last in the eyes of the market. Did OCA miss an opportunity with ARV’s acquisition of Arena?

I worry OCA have too many ex investment bankers in management and on the board. These ex masters of the universe sometimes have too much conviction in their mastery of spreadsheets in lieu of real world experience and commercial nous

[winner69]

I worry OCA have too many ex investment bankers in management and on the board. These ex masters of the universe sometimes have too much conviction in their mastery of spreadsheets in lieu of real world experience and commercial nous


These ex masters of the universe sometimes have too much conviction in their mastery of spreadsheets in lieu of real world experience and commercial nous so said Moose ...... quite profound and probably has some truth to it

Head Nurse on Exec Team is a nice soul though

[Beagle]

I worry OCA have too many ex investment bankers in management and on the board. These ex masters of the universe sometimes have too much conviction in their mastery of spreadsheets in lieu of real world experience and commercial nous

Maybe you should ask investors in Summerset's IPO at $1.35 just under a decade ago what they think of ex investment banker Julian Cook's skills after enjoying 1000%+ gains ?
You don't get to be director of investment banking at Jarden without being exceptionally talented. Earl a nice guy, but I think we are extremely fortunate indeed to have Brent at the helm. Arguably the best change that's happened since OCA listed.

He showed he's much more than "just" an extremly talented investment banker here https://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/retirement-boss-calls-on-govt-to-allow-aged-care-residents-to-see-families/ZKLQBUXXNCX5JWEHHC46ZFLT7A/?utm_source=newsletter&utm_medium=nzh_email&utm_campaign=Premium_Business_Briefing_Newsletter&uuid=ae2dd95d629344ca8119b12a0d7d7338 paywalled

[James108]

I agree to an extent Beagle but in this case I think the board/C-suite needs diverse experience. In a company like Oceania and Summerset I would expect to see good representation of medical professionals and engineers/development professionals on their board/executive team. Good representation of finance professionals is also fine by me, as a long time Summerset holder (albeit not since IPO) I am very happy with Julians work.

I know a listed developer that has no engineers or development professionals on their board/leadership team and it is very much to their detriment.

[artemis]

I agree to an extent Beagle but in this case I think the board/C-suite needs diverse experience. In a company like Oceania and Summerset I would expect to see good representation of medical professionals and engineers/development professionals on their board/executive team. Good representation of finance professionals is also fine by me, as a long time Summerset holder (albeit not since IPO) I am very happy with Julians work.

I know a listed developer that has no engineers or development professionals on their board/leadership team and it is very much to their detriment.

Maybe the decisions are to outsource. Simply because if they turn out to be lemons it is way easier to terminate contractors than actual staff, especially if there are platinum parachutes.

[Dlownz]

Does any one know the possible value of rerate on property value. Comparing 2 bedroom villa in hawkesbay you would be lucky to pay 650000. OCA seem undervalued at 500000. Quite a undervalue and from the last report you could almost expect a extra 30% on property value.
What's everyone's opinion

[James108]

Maybe the decisions are to outsource. Simply because if they turn out to be lemons it is way easier to terminate contractors than actual staff, especially if there are platinum parachutes.

Well, when things go wrong consultants will act in their own self interest first and the clients interests second, I think some level of in house expertise is completely necessary. Further in my experience a client that knows what they are doing pushes and challenges the consultants to find the best possible outcome.

You would be shocked if the board of Xero was all accountants but it doesn’t seem to be as shocking in the construction sector.

The major retirement operators are very much in the construction/development sector.

[Beagle]

Does any one know the possible value of rerate on property value. Comparing 2 bedroom villa in hawkesbay you would be lucky to pay 650000. OCA seem undervalued at 500000. Quite a undervalue and from the last report you could almost expect a extra 30% on property value.
What's everyone's opinion

Agree, hardly any of the property gains in recent years have filtered down to OCA apartment / care suite asking prices so a lot of horsepower to be unlocked here with a smarter investment banker at the helm. I hit Earl up more than once about how underpriced OCA's units were...might as well have been talking in Swahili for all the good it did.

James, OCA development margins are the highest in the industry and their methodology of outsourcing the construction side of the business to highly reputable construction companies means they have a superb track record of getting their villages built on time and on budget. Working like a well oiled Swiss watch.

[Muse]

Maybe you should ask investors in Summerset's IPO at $1.35 just under a decade ago what they think of ex investment banker Julian Cook's skills after enjoying 1000%+ gains ?
You don't get to be director of investment banking at Jarden without being exceptionally talented. Earl a nice guy, but I think we are extremely fortunate indeed to have Brent at the helm. Arguably the best change that's happened since OCA listed.

He showed he's much more than "just" an extremly talented investment banker here https://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/retirement-boss-calls-on-govt-to-allow-aged-care-residents-to-see-families/ZKLQBUXXNCX5JWEHHC46ZFLT7A/?utm_source=newsletter&utm_medium=nzh_email&utm_campaign=Premium_Business_Briefing_Newsletter&uuid=ae2dd95d629344ca8119b12a0d7d7338 paywalled

Simon Challies is more my style. Plus he invented the business model here in NZ

[Beagle]

Simon Challies is more my style. Plus he invented the business model here in NZ

A legend in his time for sure and still doing awesome work https://www.canterburybraincollective.org/directors/2018/12/11/simon-challies but please give Brent a chance to blossom...my sense is he will will prove himself to be an awesome CEO.

[Muse]

A legend in his time for sure and still doing awesome work https://www.canterburybraincollective.org/directors/2018/12/11/simon-challies but please give Brent a chance to blossom...my sense is he will will prove himself to be an awesome CEO.

I got fingers & toes crossed as I am a shareholder!

[Dlownz]

Maybe the new ceo will see the quick gain and take the credit 😁

[Ferg]

Maybe someone can help me out here because I can't quite get the sales & capacity volumes to work from the annual reports.

In particular, if I compare new builds versus new sales it appears there were an accumulated 180 new units and care suites unsold at the end of the last fiscal year. That feels too high in light of demand in the sector.

Also I see OCA have restated the prior year occupancy % a couple of time - has anyone else noticed that or seen any comments on why?

Lastly, if I take last years capacity and add the new builds, I consistently get lower numbers than OCA provides in terms of total capacity for units and care suites. Have I done something wrong?

Note: items starred with * have come from the annual report. Each row is tagged with a unique identifier starting with A. Calculated rows show the calculation used by referencing the other rows, except items from the annual report which have the *.




CAPACITY & UNIT SALES ANALYSIS



FY16
FY17
FY18
FY19
FY20
FY21





*per A/R










Sales of New Units

A*


37
73
76
75
87



Sales of New Care Suites

B*


15
27
57
114
107



Total New Sales



C=A+B




52


100


133


189


194





New Builds (Units & Suites)

D*


44
131
272
176
217



Unsold (New Builds - Total New Sales)

E=D-C


0**
31
139
-13
23



Cumulative Unsold

F=Sum(E)


0
31
170
157
180
??















Capacity
Units
G*

1,022
1,054
1,102
1,202
1,285
1,367




Care Suites
H*

230
242
340
542
679
847




Care Beds
I*

2,519
2,580
2,540
2,112
1,882
1,807



Total Capacity

J=G+H+I

3,771
3,876
3,982
3,856
3,846
4,021
















Average Occupancy % (Restated)

K*


91.3%
90.4%
91.0%
91.5%
92.4%



Average Occupancy #

L=J*K


3,539
3,600
3,509
3,519
3,715
















Unoccupied - All

M=J-L


337
382
347
327
306



Less Cumulative Unsold Units & Suites

N=F


0
31
170
157
180



Unoccupied Care Beds & Resales

O=M-N


337
351
177
170
126
















Units & Suites Capacity - prior year

P=G+H (PY)


1,252
1,296
1,442
1,744
1,964



New Builds

Q=D


44
131
272
176
217



Calculated Capacity

R=P+Q


1,296
1,427
1,714
1,920
2,181



Reported Capacity - this year

S=G+H (TY)


1,296
1,442
1,744
1,964
2,214



Difference

T=S-R


0
15
30
44
33
??



**Note: I forced FY17 to zero for unsold given new sales exceeded new builds and we can't start with unsold < 0.

[winner69]

Hey Ferg ….those numbers. Sort of get what you showing

They demolished / written off quite a few units in the past few years as they go down the care conversion path ….maybe that’s the missing number

[allfromacell]

Inflation print at 2.2% for the quarterly. Multiple by 4 quarters and were running at 8.8%.

The 10 year is spiking as it should, interest rates can only go up from here.

[Biscuit]

Hey Ferg ….those numbers. Sort of get what you showing

They demolished / written off quite a few units in the past few years as they go down the care conversion path ….maybe that’s the missing number

But Ferg gets lower numbers than OCA provide so demolished units isn't the answer.

[Ferg]

That's correct Biscuit - I am coming up with lower capacity figures versus what was reported in the AR. I'm also unsure about the other number I tagged red being the vacant new builds. I have zero sense if that is correct or if it is out by miles. I don't think I am comparing apples with oranges.....or maybe reported capacity is weighted for being available for only part of the year....?

[Beagle]

Sorry mate, looking back would hurt my head too much. I am happy to accept the numbers at face value.

Interesting inflation data out today with inflation up a whopping 2.2% in just the last quarter (8.8% per annum) and the cost of building a house up a whopping 4.5% this quarter (annual rate of 18% !).

What does all this mean for OCA with its flash recently built villages at Meadowbank and the Sands and the one in Nelson ? It means the cost to build these as new buildings that are already built has gone up quite dramatically and this must flow through to resale prices.

Please Brent, be far more confident in pricing the units with the wonderful facilities you are offering residents and price them more appropriately for the safe and secure lifestyle we are providing residents. A 4.5% across the board price increase now to reflect the revised cost to provide these facilities is about 6 cents per share in asset backing. Lets do this !

[winner69]

Sorry mate, looking back would hurt my head too much. I am happy to accept the numbers at face value.

Interesting inflation data out today with inflation up a whopping 2.2% in just the last quarter (8.8% per annum) and the cost of building a house up a whopping 4.5% this quarter (annual rate of 18% !).

What does all this mean for OCA with its flash recently built villages at Meadowbank and the Sands and the one in Nelson ? It means the cost to build these as new buildings that are already built has gone up quite dramatically and this must flow through to resale prices.

Please Brent, be far more confident in pricing the units with the wonderful facilities you are offering residents and price them more appropriately for the safe and secure lifestyle we are providing residents. A 4.5% across the board price increase now to reflect the revised cost to provide these facilities is about 6 cents per share in asset backing. Lets do this !

Must being the operative word here eh

But don’t worry ..even if sold cheap now you make it up at a later date I’m told

[Beagle]

Must being the operative word here eh

But don’t worry ..even if sold cheap now you make it up at a later date I’m told

Beagles are very impatient animals when it comes to getting their next feed lol (Seriously my patience with this one which has gone backwards this year is wearing pretty thin).

Brent must increase unit prices very sharply right now lol

[Muse]

Beagles are very impatient animals when it comes to getting their next feed lol (Seriously my patience with this one which has gone backwards this year is wearing pretty thin).

Brent must increase unit prices very sharply right now lol

I agree. Jack ‘em up, jack ‘em up!!!

[bull....]

Maybe someone can help me out here because I can't quite get the sales & capacity volumes to work from the annual reports.

In particular, if I compare new builds versus new sales it appears there were an accumulated 180 new units and care suites unsold at the end of the last fiscal year. That feels too high in light of demand in the sector.

Also I see OCA have restated the prior year occupancy % a couple of time - has anyone else noticed that or seen any comments on why?

Lastly, if I take last years capacity and add the new builds, I consistently get lower numbers than OCA provides in terms of total capacity for units and care suites. Have I done something wrong?

Note: items starred with * have come from the annual report. Each row is tagged with a unique identifier starting with A. Calculated rows show the calculation used by referencing the other rows, except items from the annual report which have the *.




CAPACITY & UNIT SALES ANALYSIS



FY16
FY17
FY18
FY19
FY20
FY21





*per A/R










Sales of New Units

A*


37
73
76
75
87



Sales of New Care Suites

B*


15
27
57
114
107



Total New Sales



C=A+B




52


100


133


189


194





New Builds (Units & Suites)

D*


44
131
272
176
217



Unsold (New Builds - Total New Sales)

E=D-C


0**
31
139
-13
23



Cumulative Unsold

F=Sum(E)


0
31
170
157
180
??















Capacity
Units
G*

1,022
1,054
1,102
1,202
1,285
1,367




Care Suites
H*

230
242
340
542
679
847




Care Beds
I*

2,519
2,580
2,540
2,112
1,882
1,807



Total Capacity

J=G+H+I

3,771
3,876
3,982
3,856
3,846
4,021
















Average Occupancy % (Restated)

K*


91.3%
90.4%
91.0%
91.5%
92.4%



Average Occupancy #

L=J*K


3,539
3,600
3,509
3,519
3,715
















Unoccupied - All

M=J-L


337
382
347
327
306



Less Cumulative Unsold Units & Suites

N=F


0
31
170
157
180



Unoccupied Care Beds & Resales

O=M-N


337
351
177
170
126
















Units & Suites Capacity - prior year

P=G+H (PY)


1,252
1,296
1,442
1,744
1,964



New Builds

Q=D


44
131
272
176
217



Calculated Capacity

R=P+Q


1,296
1,427
1,714
1,920
2,181



Reported Capacity - this year

S=G+H (TY)


1,296
1,442
1,744
1,964
2,214



Difference

T=S-R


0
15
30
44
33
??



**Note: I forced FY17 to zero for unsold given new sales exceeded new builds and we can't start with unsold < 0.

hazard a guess you might want to find out how they recognize revenue and completion of projects in there accounts

[Ggcc]

Beagles are very impatient animals when it comes to getting their next feed lol (Seriously my patience with this one which has gone backwards this year is wearing pretty thin).

Brent must increase unit prices very sharply right now lol

I agree as the worst has not arrived yet

[Beagle]

I presume by worst you mean quarterly inflation and I agree that genie has been well and truly let out of the bottle and its going to be devilishly hard to get that back under control as everyone else adjusts their prices.

[Ggcc]

I presume by worst you mean quarterly inflation and I agree that genie has been well and truly let out of the bottle and its going to be devilishly hard to get that back under control as everyone else adjusts their prices.
I know because my business is seeing price increases every week. Some items at much as 60%. I can’t absorb that sort of increase and need to pass it on.

[Maverick]

That's correct Biscuit - I am coming up with lower capacity figures versus what was reported in the AR. I'm also unsure about the other number I tagged red being the vacant new builds. I have zero sense if that is correct or if it is out by miles. I don't think I am comparing apples with oranges.....or maybe reported capacity is weighted for being available for only part of the year....?

q1....Lastly, if I take last years capacity and add the new builds, I consistently get lower numbers than OCA provides in terms of total capacity for units and care suites. Have I done something wrong?


That's a mighty load of work there Ferg, awesome layout too.
I think I can see 2 or 3 questions in there but let me at least tackle one of them for now.

Winner has hit the nail on the head with conversions throwing your numbers off. OCA has been gutting about 50-60 beds/rooms per year and built about 40-50 cares suites in their shells. This effectively removes the count of beds and replaces them with a smaller number of renovated cares suites.
Now here's where it just muddy and essentially the nub of your stock imbalance. OCA don't count/report a newly converted care suites as a new DELIVERY in the investor presentation but they do get lumped in with the care suite NEW SALES (and do materially bring down the average new C/S sale price as they are much cheaper). OCA have been doing this in older villages since they listed but these conversions are now all but wrapped up this year. This kind of lines up with your out of balance amounts of about 30 each year( yes , they sometimes pull down the odd old care suite too , but lets no go there today)

OCA reported these conversions separately one year but quickly gave up. I don't believe for a moment its anything dodgy ,to me ,It appears they have just tried to simplify their reporting as it all just gets too much( as noted many times on ST). You are the only person I'm aware of who has picked up this anomaly in such detail, so well done for your thoroughness Ferg!

Note to newbies . Care "beds" are not the same as care "suites"

[Beagle]

I know because my business is seeing price increases every week. Some items at much as 60%. I can’t absorb that sort of increase and need to pass it on.

I think OCA should be really bold and put up prices by 25% across the board. Its a needs based business and you either want what they offer or you don't and does it really matter to an 85 year old who's just sold their $2 million mansion whether a care suite is $500K or $625K ?

[850man]

I think OCA should be really bold and put up prices by 25% across the board. Its a needs based business and you either want what they offer or you don't and does it really matter to an 85 year old who's just sold their $2 million mansion whether a care suite is $500K or $625K ?

Agree. Price has long appeared low compared to the market for no real reason. Let's hope Brent is watching this thread.

[Ferg]

Winner has hit the nail on the head with conversions throwing your numbers off. OCA has been gutting about 50-60 beds/rooms per year and built about 40-50 cares suites in their shells. This effectively removes the count of beds and replaces them with a smaller number of renovated cares suites.
Now here's where it just muddy and essentially the nub of your stock imbalance. OCA don't count/report a newly converted care suites as a new DELIVERY in the investor presentation but they do get lumped in with the care suite NEW SALES

Thanks Maverick. I don't for a minute think there is anything dodgy, my first reaction on seeing something I don't understand is to think there is a gap in my knowledge, rather than a gap in someone else's integrity! :)

I think that answers the question about total capacity not reconciling. Where care beds are converted to suites but not counted as new builds in the presentation, then this would lead to OCA reporting a higher capacity than I am calculating - which is what my analysis shows. It also makes sense that if you have surplus demand in one area and an excess of capacity in another to undertake conversions.

However, you raise a point that these converted beds (into suites) are included in the new build sales volumes. Comparing new build sales volumes in my analysis (which may be inflated by the conversions) with the number of new builds (which exclude conversions) then that would make my calculations above worse where I reckon there were 180 unsold new builds at the end of the last fiscal year. If that is correct then maybe their pricing is about right? The vacant units+suites being less than the total vacancies suggests 180 *could* be correct but once again I'm not sure if I have missed something e.g. the time factor whereby new builds take on average x months to fill which may be beyond the last reported year end.

[Maverick]

Thanks Maverick. I don't for a minute think there is anything dodgy, my first reaction on seeing something I don't understand is to think there is a gap in my knowledge, rather than a gap in someone else's integrity! :)

Comparing new build sales volumes in my analysis (which may be inflated by the conversions) with the number of new builds (which exclude conversions) then that would make my calculations above worse where I reckon there were 180 unsold new builds at the end of the last fiscal year. If that is correct then maybe their pricing is about right? The vacant units+suites being less than the total vacancies suggests 180 *could* be correct but once again I'm not sure if I have missed something e.g. the time factor whereby new builds take on average x months to fill which may be beyond the last reported year end.

Ferg, perhaps you weren't around in the 80s sharemarket. I learnt from that to treat everything as suspicious.

Back to OCA.....question 2
The empty units you've got figured at 180 or so is a little high on mine at 166 but certainly close enough between us.:)
Note that of these 60% are C/S . These are my calcs so don't take it as gospel but it is good enough for this exercise.

I spent time with Mudfish who lives nearby. We came up with a rather brilliant chart tracking and predicting cares suits sales. As you are a detail guy you will be interested. I have developed a good pre-covid formula which has proved reliable.

Rule 1. New apartments deliveries basically fully sell down over 1.5 years , heavily tilted to the summer. (hence hy2 is always much better than hy1)

Rule2. OCA has a sale rate of 20% of new C/s delivered per HY to fill up within 2.5 years. These sales continue at this regular , unseasonal pace for 5 HY periods. Beyond that , the block is full and as one empties(every 2.5 years) there is the right stream of replacement clients needing to move in.

C/S however are a different animal to apartments. As needs based they take time to sell down only as they are required ( regardless of price). Nobody lines up to get one on open day.
To give an example , Bayview(Tauranga) opened a block of c/s back in early 2019 and in theory they should have just recently sold the last new one. In fact they have sold much faster and there is now a waiting list there. There should actually still be brand new empty ones in Meadow bank (Auckland) which were delivered way back mid 2019.
I have calculated ( thanks to the graph Muddy and I made- he`s a deep thinker like you) OCA are selling them slightly too fast but investors will be pleased to hear that they are now ramping the prices second time around ( ie c/s re sale prices up 19% this year , remember that is only after 2.5 years.)

So the fact OCA have around 170 or so units is to be expected. But rest easy folks, price points are being ramped already.

Also don't forget that its not as important to squeeze every last dollar out of the sale price of a C/S The lion share of profit comes from a full efficiently staffed building that you can constantly churn every 2.5 years. That's a sh*t load of DMF continually flowing in regardless of what the HPI is doing.

[Beagle]

Some excellent prognostications guys but here we are at $1.41 down 4 cents (3%) for 2021 year to date and RYM down about the same while ARV and SUM are both up ~ 17% in the same period.

Care suite prices up 19% on where they were 2.5 years ago doesn't give me any comfort Mav when the real estate market is up ~ 40% on where it was 2.5 years ago.

OCA the only share I have lost money on this year...

Need to see something in next months report...this dog is getting restless.

Did a bit of research today. Very different prices.
2 Bedroom apartment at Lady Allum an OCA village in central Milford - just $650K https://www.trademe.co.nz/a/property/retirement-villages/auckland/north-shore-city/milford/listing/3270418590
Birkenhead, far less upmarket suburb - Ryman 2 Bedroom $955K https://www.trademe.co.nz/a/property/retirement-villages/auckland/north-shore-city/birkenhead/listing/3204162967?bof=v4ykNBVr
Mayfair village 1 bedroom $815K https://www.trademe.co.nz/a/property/retirement-villages/auckland/north-shore-city/northcross/listing/3293599979?bof=v4ykNBVr
Devonport 2 Bedroom - Ryman $1.9m https://www.trademe.co.nz/a/property/retirement-villages/auckland/north-shore-city/devonport/listing/3233435128?bof=v4ykNBVr
and finally the one that makes the least sense to me of all in terms of relative pricing with its competitors at OCA's premier development the Sands on the waterfront at Browns Bay a 2 bedroom apartment for just $780K https://www.trademe.co.nz/a/property/retirement-villages/auckland/north-shore-city/browns-bay/listing/3261282285?bof=v4ykNBVr

Lady Allum is a very old established village and having been there I can sort of understand that its not in the A league so maybe the pricing isn't too far off the mark, (great suburb though and extremely handy to all sorts of things on the shore including North Shore hospital and all sorts of specialists just literally down the road), but the Sands unit pricing looks ridiculous to me and probably not much more, if anything, than when it was first built. Its hard in this rampant property market to understand OCA's pricing, go figure ? Like I said earlier today someone needs to take this by the scruff of the neck and make some bold pricing decisions...no point in selling up a storm if you're giving them away ! Why do I bother though ? (probably just venting a bit of frustration)..told Earl the same thing at least twice when he was in charge...like water of a ducks back.

[Ferg]

Why do I bother though ? (probably just venting a bit of frustration)..told Earl the same thing at least twice when he was in charge...like water of a ducks back.
You make valid points Beagle. However, regarding the point I have quoted: in my experience when I see such reactions (as in no reaction or "noted") from a CEO it is because they often know something I don't; as in they have some information which changes the outlook and/or conclusion but are not willing to share it at that time. People in such positions have worked hard to get there and in my experience can be months or even years ahead of others in their outlook on the business and what is coming up. Have faith Beagle - there will be a method to the madness that is not immediately obvious to us folk.

[Beagle]

Thanks for the encouragement mate, to be quite honest, I need it.

Cindy's Kindy lockdown Covid meat-grinder goes on and on and on and...

[Maverick]

Thanks for the encouragement mate, to be quite honest, I need it.

Cindy's Kindy lockdown Covid meat-grinder goes on and on and on and...
nice post Ferg.
I checked out those trademe listings Beagle and it's frightening how many of theses things are out there but obviously the demand is there because they are all selling faster than ever.

Beagle, I do get your current frustration with OCA share price. But you do know you love the cut and thrust of momentum trading don't you? (Albeit only in solid, dividend paying companies-no rocket lab for you!)
ARV just bought a shinny new thing , SUMs share price is rocketing away. Meanwhile OCAs SP has the momentum of a beached whale occasionally flapping its tail , doing nothing, going nowhere.

The damn Auckland lockdown (2.5 months is unbelievably long) must exacerbate things as you guys up there probably spend more time than ever watching markets and covid updates with little else to do.

Tell ya what mate, I'd just love to buy you a beer sometime in December when you are out on the ran-tan when AKL is humming once again and OCA is at $1.65.
Hang in there mate, not long for both of those things now.

[dompf]

nice post Ferg.
I checked out those trademe listings Beagle and it's frightening how many of theses things are out there but obviously the demand is there because they are all selling faster than ever.

Beagle, I do get your current frustration with OCA share price. But you do know you love the cut and thrust of momentum trading don't you? (Albeit only in solid, decent companies-no rocket lab for you!)
ARV just bought a shinny new thing , SUMs share price is rocketing away. Meanwhile OCAs SP has the momentum of a beached whale occasionally flapping its tail , doing nothing, going nowhere.

The damn Auckland lockdown (2.5 months is unbelievably long) must exacerbate things as you guys up there probably spend more time than ever watching markets and covid updates with little else to do.

Tell ya what mate, I'd just love to buy you a beer sometime in December when you are out on the ran-tan when AKL is humming once again and OCA is at $1.65.
Hang in there mate, not long for both of those things now.

momentum of a beached whale - about sums the results of the year up. Pretty frustrating share to watch meander around. It has a target price still at 1.71$ Pretty clear someone is selling a large amount and has been for awhile.

[Rawz]

momentum of a beached whale - about sums the results of the year up. Pretty frustrating share to watch meander around. It has a target price still at 1.71$ Pretty clear someone is selling a large amount and has been for awhile.

Got to be linked to ARV cap raise? Can't think of anything else?

[Dlownz]

Alot of patience with this one. But if you got in early April last year your doing well

[couta1]

momentum of a beached whale - about sums the results of the year up. Pretty frustrating share to watch meander around. It has a target price still at 1.71$ Pretty clear someone is selling a large amount and has been for awhile. The momentum of a beached whale that spits out a divvy twice a year is massively attractive compared to losing over 2 mill in an ugly milky meltdown and slow moving train wreck that was A2, puts it in perspective don't you think?

[winner69]

Hey Beagle - your frustration re Oceania low (relatively) selling prices

You seem to lay blame at Earl for this and say Brent will sort it out

Hasn't Brent been in charge of the purse strings for a while now - I would have thought he would have had been very influential in how they set prices (as some would say the keeper of the spreadsheets ;)

Maybe it was the old geezer (Development guy) who got the shove just had too much power and it's all fixed now

Whatever Oceania doesn't tell a very good story to the market and that's why the share price is what it is ..... come November and another glossy presentation trying to explain life away the share price will go up to say 160 (fair value) and then give holders another six months of frustration and making us hope that one day Oceania will be seen as great stock to hold (ie re-rated)

[James108]

But I thought Oceania had the highest sales margin of any of the operators? Could it be that you can easily fudge the margin by attributing more of the costs to shared facilities (e.g. roads etc). and capitalising those?

Not sure if Oceania is doing this but it’s something I would compare with sum and ryman if I could be bothered. I certainly know that this sort of thing happens on other developments.

[winner69]

Got to be linked to ARV cap raise? Can't think of anything else?

ARV stuff all impact ....you just looking for excuses / grasping at straws mate

May as well say it's linked to the rout on the NZ Bond market --- like OCA030 gone from 2.88% to 3.30% yesterday in last few days ... that's huge movement

[dompf]

The momentum of a beached whale that spits out a divvy twice a year is massively attractive compared to losing over 2 mill in an ugly milky meltdown and slow moving train wreck that was A2, puts it in perspective don't you think?

that’s a good point could always to be worse :)

[RGR367]

There's no denying that sp is still low so stop complaining and just keep on buying.

[Onion]

Alot of patience with this one. But if you got in early April last year your doing well

I got a parcel at 47c last year. Still feeling pretty pleased with myself TBH. That took my average cost to about 85c.

I’m still naturally keen for the SP to move higher that present. But there is a lot of shares on offer in the “ask” depth column so I will have to use the patience you mention.

[Dlownz]

The upside which still has to come through is their villa occupancy will be at highest they have had. Plus now there's a wait list.
As people have said next year will be the year it all starts flowing through

[winner69]

The upside which still has to come through is their villa occupancy will be at highest they have had. Plus now there's a wait list.
As people have said next year will be the year it all starts flowing through

Didn’t you say that a year ago

Maybe it’ll start flowing through be the year after next year

[Beagle]

There's no denying that sp is still low so stop complaining and just keep on buying.

It it weren't for risk associated with this bunch of woke armatures in parliament and what they might do with their review of this sector I would buy more.

Thanks for your kind words Maverick, much appreciated :)

[Waltzing]

"I would buy more"

or look farther a field across the globe.. sun rising in the east.. go west young man.

and has the fat lady not stepped up to the stage on this one.

[Dlownz]

Didn’t you say that a year ago


Maybe it’ll start flowing through be the year after next year

No. I said this year quite recently

[davflaws]

The momentum of a beached whale that spits out a divvy twice a year is massively attractive compared to losing over 2 mill in an ugly milky meltdown and slow moving train wreck that was A2, puts it in perspective don't you think?

I felt your pain (and some of my own). We got it wrong, and the three Bs got it right - the bastards! But Beagle (bless his paws) has also been known to let his politics cloud his judgment with this paricular share, so as long as the beached whale doesn't actually start to stink, I'm hanging in at 40% of my portfolio.

[macduffy]

Relax, everybody. The RV spotlight has turned to Arvida, for the present. OCA will have its turn again in due course.

:cool:

[Beagle]

I felt your pain (and some of my own). We got it wrong, and the three Bs got it right - the bastards! But Beagle (bless his paws) has also been known to let his politics cloud his judgment with this paricular share, so as long as the beached whale doesn't actually start to stink, I'm hanging in at 40% of my portfolio.

What the heck are you talking about ?...the endless spin coming from Spindy and her woke team is having no effect on me whatsoever :lol:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=C_6Yu_LlFno

[couta1]

I felt your pain (and some of my own). We got it wrong, and the three Bs got it right - the bastards! But Beagle (bless his paws) has also been known to let his politics cloud his judgment with this paricular share, so as long as the beached whale doesn't actually start to stink, I'm hanging in at 40% of my portfolio. Just talking with my 86 yr old neighbour out on his daily walk, says he's adding to his OCA holding and reckons $3 in 3 yrs time, im not going to argue with him.

[dreamcatcher]

Maybe things are not as rosy as everyone expected.

Interest rates on the rise
house prices struggling
inflation rising
covid hanging around
wage pressure building
Tradies impossible to find
govt's endless lockdowns

[Ggcc]

Maybe things are not as rosy as everyone expected.

Interest rates on the rise
house prices struggling
inflation rising
covid hanging around
wage pressure building
Tradies impossible to find
govt's endless lockdowns

A lot of questions that will be answered eventually. Until then it is only a concern if you need the money right now

[850man]

Maybe things are not as rosy as everyone expected.

Interest rates on the rise
house prices struggling
inflation rising
covid hanging around
wage pressure building
Tradies impossible to find
govt's endless lockdowns

There's a wedding coming up, I'm absolutely certain there won't be any lockdowns or closed borders around that time that might hamper attendance from guests nationally and internationally and the glossy mag reporters

[couta1]

Lol that $1.43 line just got loaded up.

[alokdhir]

Lol that $1.43 line just got loaded up.

Maybe someone like me got too bored with it ...lol

[couta1]

Maybe someone like me got too bored with it ...lol I guess 230k shares is a good dose of boredom.

[davflaws]

Just talking with my 86 yr old neighbour out on his daily walk, says he's adding to his OCA holding and reckons $3 in 3 yrs time, im not going to argue with him.
I hope he is around to see it (and us too)

[alokdhir]

I guess 230k shares is a good dose of boredom.

I said I took medium position ...so all coming out ...lol

[Beagle]

nice post Ferg.
I checked out those trademe listings Beagle and it's frightening how many of theses things are out there but obviously the demand is there because they are all selling faster than ever.

Beagle, I do get your current frustration with OCA share price. But you do know you love the cut and thrust of momentum trading don't you? (Albeit only in solid, dividend paying companies-no rocket lab for you!)
ARV just bought a shinny new thing , SUMs share price is rocketing away. Meanwhile OCAs SP has the momentum of a beached whale occasionally flapping its tail , doing nothing, going nowhere.

The damn Auckland lockdown (2.5 months is unbelievably long) must exacerbate things as you guys up there probably spend more time than ever watching markets and covid updates with little else to do.

Tell ya what mate, I'd just love to buy you a beer sometime in December when you are out on the ran-tan when AKL is humming once again and OCA is at $1.65.
Hang in there mate, not long for both of those things now.

94 cases today...new record...we're never getting out of this...never mind I went to the beach today and went looking for beached whales...thankfully none were found and I had a good time https://www.bing.com/videos/search?q=Beagle+Dog+Swiming+in+Beach&&view=detail&mid=D045F503A83AC5E0642AD045F503A83AC5E0642A&&FORM=VRDGAR&ru=%2Fvideos%2Fsearch%3Fq%3DBeagle%2BDog%2BSwiming %2Bin%2BBeach%26FORM%3DVDMHRS

[Bjauck]

94 cases today...new record...we're never getting out of this...never mind I went to the beach today and went looking for beached whales...thankfully none were found and I had a good time https://www.bing.com/videos/search?q=Beagle+Dog+Swiming+in+Beach&&view=detail&mid=D045F503A83AC5E0642AD045F503A83AC5E0642A&&FORM=VRDGAR&ru=%2Fvideos%2Fsearch%3Fq%3DBeagle%2BDog%2BSwiming %2Bin%2BBeach%26FORM%3DVDMHRS
You must have missed me lying in the sun on the sand at Mission Bay! It is certainly taking a lot of incoming tide to float the OCA price.

It must be time for yet another Tamaki Rally if there are only 94 cases…

[Beagle]

You must have missed me lying in the sun on the sand at Mission Bay! It is certainly taking a lot of incoming tide to float the OCA price.

It must be time for yet another Tamaki Rally if there are only 94 cases…

Need a good spring tide me thinks.

I wish he was a beached whale. I'd gladly help him refloat...yeah right lol

[Panda-NZ-]

Where is the light over the hill for OCA?

House prices record high.
Aging population saved from corona and growing in number.

Maybe if it isn't there now and with these favourable conditions, then it may never be.

[justakiwi]

This thread is becoming a never-ending roundabout of "Go OCA!" fist bumps, followed by "the sky is falling!" doom and gloom negativity.

The SP drops. It goes up again. As some of you have said, many times, the market sets the SP. It is not a realistic or accurate reflection of anything. If you still believe in the company, hold/buy more, and stop stressing. If you don't, get out.

I hate to say this, but sometimes the discussions here, have a great deal more in common with the Sharesies Share Club facebook page, than you might realise.

[Teatree]

We're bored in Auckland got to have something to talk about

[Dlownz]

This thread is becoming a never-ending roundabout of "Go OCA!" fist bumps, followed by "the sky is falling!" doom and gloom negativity.

The SP drops. It goes up again. As some of you have said, many times, the market sets the SP. It is not a realistic or accurate reflection of anything. If you still believe in the company, hold/buy more, and stop stressing. If you don't, get out.

I hate to say this, but sometimes the discussions here, have a great deal more in common with the Sharesies Share Club facebook page, than you might realise.

Or elthe skytv thread

[Bjauck]

This thread is becoming a never-ending roundabout of "Go OCA!" fist bumps, followed by "the sky is falling!" doom and gloom negativity.

The SP drops. It goes up again. As some of you have said, many times, the market sets the SP. It is not a realistic or accurate reflection of anything. If you still believe in the company, hold/buy more, and stop stressing. If you don't, get out.

I hate to say this, but sometimes the discussions here, have a great deal more in common with the Sharesies Share Club facebook page, than you might realise.My apologies for my contribution to that. Along the lines of what Teatree said, even inane chatter is a distraction from lockdown and the unfolding spread of Covid here. I will try to keep it relevant.

[justakiwi]

No need for apologies. I wasn't trying to have a dig at anyone in particular. Boredom and the need for a distraction, is a valid reason for why many of us are here - me included. I am just feeling lately that discussions here are no longer motivating or exciting me (from a beginner investor point of view). Everything seems to just meander around in circles getting nowhere.

It's probably just me. Had an awesome few days by the sea, in my happy place, and now I'm home and back to reality. Post holiday funk ;)


My apologies for my contribution to that. Along the lines of what Teatree said, even inane chatter is a distraction from lockdown and the unfolding spread of Covid here.

[Old mate]

It is a little off topic at times but I don't mind reading some inane chatter if it helps you guys deal with lockdown pain. Some of it is funny:t_up:. Feel for everyone up there:)

[mike2020]

Or elthe skytv thread

That is taking it a bit far. OCA is a real company with a future :mellow:

[Dlownz]

That is taking it a bit far. OCA is a real company with a future :mellow:

Well at least you understood my terrible grammar 😂😂

[bull....]

94 cases today...new record...we're never getting out of this...never mind I went to the beach today and went looking for beached whales...thankfully none were found and I had a good time https://www.bing.com/videos/search?q=Beagle+Dog+Swiming+in+Beach&&view=detail&mid=D045F503A83AC5E0642AD045F503A83AC5E0642A&&FORM=VRDGAR&ru=%2Fvideos%2Fsearch%3Fq%3DBeagle%2BDog%2BSwiming %2Bin%2BBeach%26FORM%3DVDMHRS

be a couple hundred cases per day by end of month , be able to miggle on the beach with the other covid carriers pretty soon with a r factor over 1

[Beagle]

be a couple hundred cases per day by end of month , be able to miggle on the beach with the other covid carriers pretty soon with a r factor over 1

Yeap...people living outside Auckland have no idea what its like here.

Living under the threat of the Covid bomb feels like living under this...gives others some idea what its like https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Ds6mvK4olQ4

But...our forbearers fought wars for years in the trenches...all we have to do is fight this Covid war from the couch...or the ICU hospital bed if there's any left that are available :eek2: so I suppose its not so bad...

Better buck my tone up...can't have others feeling the real Auckland blues...

As you were Ladies and Gents...its all good, $3 in 3 years according to Couta1's neighbor...what could possibly go wrong lol

[winner69]

OCA report half year next month so i've done some sums

H!22 Underlying earnings to be about $36m (heading towards $80m full year.... eps 11 cents)

Book Value September estimated to be $1.41

so share price should be $1.75 by Christmas and over $2.00 come full year announcement May next year

[Waltzing]

"terrible grammar "

no Gamma on this stock.

some alpha coming according to WinnerGrinner.

But SUM other stock did produce the alpha.

very small font though..

[Beagle]

OCA report half year next month so i've done some sums

H!22 Underlying earnings to be about $36m (heading towards $80m full year.... eps 11 cents)

Book Value September estimated to be $1.41

so share price should be $1.75 by Christmas and over $2.00 come full year announcement May next year

Yes...I think the real NAV (Net Asset Value) including developments in progress and all units valued at current sale prices, (not arbitrarily heavily discounting unsold ones like CBRE does) will be very close to that figure but what they report will be somewhat less.

Those that believe that you get the most grunt in this sector by buying right on the real NTA should find this a compelling buy at this level....but I am wondering more and more if customers really want the "resort style" facilities that the others provide....but best ignore me today...just another groundhog day of living in Cindy's prison waiting for the Covid bomb to inevitably hit and wondering if Mrs B who staunchly refuses to vaccinate will survive the hit. Yeah, life's "just marvelous"...

[Dlownz]

I hope she changes her mind beagle.
My wife has lots of friends overseas who's family never got a chance to get the vaccine (didn't exist in scale then). They lost alot around them. The stats for vaccinated and unvaccinated overseas speak huge volumes in how effective it is. It may not stop you catching delta but the long term effects are horrible. I had a work colleague catch the originsl here in nz in the first put break. His whole family were fine but he ended up in hospital and didn't return to work till 1 month after the first lockdown has ended. You can imagine he had no problems going to get the vaccine when his time in the line came

[bull....]

"terrible grammar "

no Gamma on this stock.

some alpha coming according to WinnerGrinner.

But SUM other stock did produce the alpha.

very small font though..



lol long nights and quick fingers anyway i see oca might be forming a trading range which started oct last yr 1.30 - 1.59.

[Beagle]

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Elephant_seal#/media/File:Mirounga_angustirostris,_Point_Reyes.jpg
Unhappy shareholders barking.

[Maverick]

OCA report half year next month so i've done some sums

H!22 Underlying earnings to be about $36m (heading towards $80m full year.... eps 11 cents)

Book Value September estimated to be $1.41

so share price should be $1.75 by Christmas and over $2.00 come full year announcement May next year
I would love to think you are right Winner , that would be truly awesome but I'm thinking you're a tad optimistic.
Agree with your book value though.
Lockdown will affect this HY and the other big thing is that they are selling down their new stuff mostly in Nelson and CHCH. They don't make nearly as much new sale margins down there.

Since you've got the ball rolling, my expectations are as follows, (hy1-21...hy1-22...%difference)
Care profit 10.5m...13.5m...+28%
village profit 34.8m...31.3m...-10%
underlying profit 23.6m...25.1m...+6.3%
* note that general overheads come off the 2 profit segments which is why care and village profits don't add up to make underlying profit.

Like most of the analysts my FY profit is also $60m or so....+20% yoy.

This year the rising care profit saves the day for the falling village profits (village profits will be less this time as in the PCP 1HY21 was mostly expensive AKL apartment selling).

Beagle, you're very good at this, what say you? or are you too depressed today and just gone for the sauvignon.

[Beagle]

Beagle, you're very good at this, what say you? or are you too depressed today and just gone for the sauvignon.
Feel a bit better, (off a very low base this morning), after a good walk. My Mum used to say its not good to skite but yes I have got the last three reports regarding underlying profit, full year FY21, half year FY21, and full year FY20 very close, thanks for noticing.

To be completely honest with you this time I haven't given the half year underlying profit a lot of thought. The truth is with all their care suites and care beds and the way they report profit on those outside of underlying profit, this makes comparison with the other sector players far more difficult and invalidates direct comparisons between them on the basis of same.

With the dismal share price performance this year i am zooming out and taking a more macro focused approach on total comprehensive income, (Winners preferred approach) and looking at how that will grow in the years ahead.

I think you, I and Winner are very closely aligned on where we see the real net asset value as at 30 September, (very close to the share price) so this gives maximum bang for buck in terms of leveraging total comprehensive income in this sector over the medium to long term.

Its better for my head with where the shares price currently is to take a macro medium - long term perspective and to be honest I don't think a micro underlying profit focus for this half year when at least a quarter of it was under lockdown level 4 or 3 is especially helpful. They can continue building under lockdown level 3 so that's good but there will have been delay's with settlements and extra PPE costs so its hard to get a read on this one but my instincts, (based on all the anecdotal evidence from other sector participants and what they've reported), tell me you're probably a lot closer to the mark than Winner, not that underlying profit is especially important or the most relevant profit measure for this company.

I think its a VERY good thing that they building a lot more independent living apartments over the next few years and that's a trend I hope Brent will continue going forward from there. Their recent village acquisition in Hobsonville was a "full feature" village and I think that's what retiree's really want. I hope Brent heads more down that track with new villages they build from scratch, like the one at Pukekohe.

Long term its hard to see how you can go wrong with this one but its been a difficult year to see the share price going nowhere. I suppose after last years excitement, (I loaded up in the 60's and 70's and doubled my money), I probably should have had pretty modest expectations this year.

(Notice how I neatly avoided your question...I should be a politician lol).

[Panda-NZ-]

Medical device companies related to an aging population is good to diversify from this dependance on house prices and govt subsidies.

COH, RMD, FPH, maybe CSL

[winner69]

Hey Mav, I've run with your superior knowledge and run with your estimates of Underlying Earnings estimates and plugged them into my EPS chart (Used weighted average number of shares as well)

Paints a rather sad picture -- EPS declines in H1 and for the full year is a miserable 4% higher than 12 months to March 21 ....and still tracking at 2018/2019 levels ....all that new capital not doing much is it.

Chart looks a bit like the share price chart --- and at the end of the day financial performance is actually why the share price is perceived to be so low / Cheap

[Waltzing]

Nice chart Winner.. can i copy that custom style for our charting modules, very clean no clutter.

Le Corbusier

Will call it the Flat Line Winner Style.

Stocks.Charts.StyleManager.AddStyle("WinnerGrinner","Style=Styles.Line"));


Stock not a Winner then?

[Beagle]

Its a property company. The real earnings for the year are in the increase in NAV + dividends paid. Waste of time trying to unpack it any more than that.

[Greekwatchdog]

Something to cheer you up. Greg T been buying more . https://www.nzx.com/announcements/381402

[Beagle]

That'll buck the troops up. Very smart guy. He's bought millions at $1.41...the hound bought a few at the same price last week.

[winner69]

Well done Greg ..... you stopped the share price crashing to low 130's

We are indebted to you

[Waltzing]

"NAV + dividends paid"

yield?

The land and buildings definitely.

over the long term, 10 years, is it not just a buy hold and forget as part of a well diversified portfolio.

[Beagle]

"NAV + dividends paid"

yield?

The land and buildings definitely.

over the long term, 10 years, is it not just a buy hold and forget as part of a well diversified portfolio.

^^^^^ This !!

[Waltzing]

"^^^^^ This !!"

:eek2:

lets keep with the blue font style.

According to Winners graph wonder if overweight from a pure maths probability point of view would be unwise.

Stat's indicate that the sector will continue to grow over the next decade.

With an investment banker in xarge the odds on performance have gone up?

Give it 2 more reporting periods or 3?

[Maverick]

Hey Mav, I've run with your superior knowledge and run with your estimates of Underlying Earnings estimates and plugged them into my EPS chart (Used weighted average number of shares as well)

Paints a rather sad picture -- EPS declines in H1 and for the full year is a miserable 4% higher than 12 months to March 21 ....and still tracking at 2018/2019 levels ....all that new capital not doing much is it.

Chart looks a bit like the share price chart --- and at the end of the day financial performance is actually why the share price is perceived to be so low / Cheap
Hey Winner, love your charts but this one needs a few tweaks.
This years underlying profit I've estimated at $60m completely ignores both the shares issued for the recent acquisitions and income derived from those acquisitions. While OCA tell us it will be cash accreditive , which will result in a boost , I choose to ignore it until I see it actually transpire . (That's the cynicism I roll with Ferg, re my earlier post).

So if you divide the forecast 60m (ignoring any extra profit generated from the recent acquisitions) by 626m shares ( pre capital raise amount of new shares) then EPS is 9.6c

Plus your historical underlying EPS are off. Try these:
FY18...8.52cps
FY 19...8.03 cps
FY20...7.03cps (covid)
FY21...8.15cps
Forecast FY22...9.6cps

So definitely not brilliant on that measure for sure but as I've said before , its the numbers within the numbers that matter for now.
Care profits are tracking nicely up now permanently and will continue its accent at about this pace, c.10-15%p/a.
Village profits will be down temporarily this year until more Auckland apartments get delivered in the next few years and just generally more apartments delivered start selling now that land has been freed up by care suit completion. As I've said plenty before, the real money is in the apartments which don`t really get cracking for a year or two yet.

So really there is no busting hurry reason to buy OCA right now, but as Baabaa said a long time ago , this share price does tend to creep away.
When you can pick it up at near asset backing then it really is hard to see it ever being better value than now.

[Waltzing]

MR M's model, its more of a longer term hold, plenty of time to buy in if the numbers start to line up.

Share price may continue to come under pressure giving Bull another trade.

O Neil used to say the longer the flat line on the chart the steeper the move up when better numbers are printed in the results.

[Maverick]

Does anybody know why Greg T can be buying shares with only 4 weeks before the HY1 result? As much as I fully respect the man and love to see him buying, surely he is in the "blackout stage " where he would have inside knowledge of things?

Edit...
Sorry folks , ignore this question... I just read at the bottom of his declaration he got "written permission in the closed period".

So, he obviously thinks its a good time to buy to be bothered applying for stuff like that from "the powers that be" rather than just waiting until after the result.

[forest]

Does anybody know why Greg T can be buying shares with only 4 weeks before the HY1 result? As much as I fully respect the man and love to see him buying, surely he is in the "blackout stage " where he would have inside knowledge of things?

Do we know when HY1 results come out Mav? If it is late November Greg T is outside blackout period I would have thought.

[peat]

Sorry folks , ignore this question... I just read at the bottom of his declaration he got "written permission in the closed period".

I was going to say Mav that its always a good thing - more skin in the game.
but now you've seen the explanation Does that beg the obvious question. why was he allowed.
And can we infer anything from the approval?

[Baa_Baa]

Does anybody know why Greg T can be buying shares with only 4 weeks before the HY1 result? As much as I fully respect the man and love to see him buying, surely he is in the "blackout stage " where he would have inside knowledge of things?

Edit...
Sorry folks , ignore this question... I just read at the bottom of his declaration he got "written permission in the closed period".

So, he obviously thinks its a good time to buy to be bothered applying for stuff like that from "the powers that be" rather than just waiting until after the result.

And it’s a massive buy on top of a humongous holding already… huge vote of confidence. Note the’ timing re the share price, buying when value presents itself.

[winner69]

I was going to say Mav that its always a good thing - more skin in the game.
but now you've seen the explanation Does that beg the obvious question. why was he allowed.
And can we infer anything from the approval?

Infer anything -- a great announcement on the way

[Waltzing]

"Prudence will dictate that dealings should generally be limited to the recommended times in the securities "2 month period prior to release of the interim and full year results announcements" and that the Chairman will generally refuse consent to deal in Company securities outside these recommended times unless exceptional circumstances exist (as outlined below). In any event, the Director or Senior Executive should not deal in Company securities at any time if the Director or Senior Executive is in possession of any inside information relating to those securities."

[winner69]

Hope Greg not doing a Norah ...in reverse

[Ferg]

Its a property company. The real earnings for the year are in the increase in NAV + dividends paid. Waste of time trying to unpack it any more than that.

Agree with the first half of what you say - the conclusion I am coming to is that they are a property company when you look at historical comprehensive earnings. Where I disagree with the second part is that as more units/suites/beds are added there is snowball effect of increased volumes -> increased unit turnover -> increased underlying profit as unused DMFs, resale margins etc. accrue to OCA and higher variable volumes are spread over a *relatively* stable fixed cost base. I say *relatively* fixed cost base but fixed costs appear to be semi-variable. With the snowball effect there should be exponential growth - the observed and modified EPS figures per Maverick suggest they are either perennially unlucky or we are at the early stages of exponential growth, i.e. still on the flat part of the curve until they iron out their growing pains.

[winner69]

NZX Rules (which Oceania state they abide to) say The policy also provides that no Directors or employees can trade shares if they are in possession of price sensitive information that is not publicly available.

So nothing to see with Gregs purchase - he might get lucky eh

[dobby41]

NZX Rules (which Oceania state they abide to) say The policy also provides that no Directors or employees can trade shares if they are in possession of price sensitive information that is not publicly available.

So nothing to see with Gregs purchase - he might get lucky eh

They have quite specific windows in which they are allowed to trade, don't they?

[Beagle]

Hope Greg not doing a Norah ...in reverse
That's okay with me, no barking required because I was buying at the same time ;)


Agree with the first half of what you say - the conclusion I am coming to is that they are a property company when you look at historical comprehensive earnings. Where I disagree with the second part is that as more units/suites/beds are added there is snowball effect of increased volumes -> increased unit turnover -> increased underlying profit as unused DMFs, resale margins etc. accrue to OCA and higher variable volumes are spread over a *relatively* stable fixed cost base. I say *relatively* fixed cost base but fixed costs appear to be semi-variable. With the snowball effect there should be exponential growth - the observed and modified EPS figures per Maverick suggest they are either perennially unlucky or we are at the early stages of exponential growth, i.e. still on the flat part of the curve until they iron out their growing pains.
Its all good, I was just being a little but facetious this morning having a tongue in cheek poke at OCA's dog's breakfast called financial statements.

[peat]

Infer anything -- a great announcement on the way

but that would mean he clearly broke one of the rules.

so we can infer the result is within guidance (even more than we usually can)

[Dlownz]

Has this seller gone or taken a break
Depth is looking. Like a possible move upwards in the next week. 😁

[bull....]

well on that big buy by the director i have decided have a trade on the long side

[alokdhir]

well on that big buy by the director i have decided have a trade on the long side

Whats your short term target ? Pls

[Onion]

Whats your short term target ? Pls

My short term target is $1.61. At that price I will be so overweight with these that some of mine will spill into the market.

Science behind that number? None.

[bull....]

Whats your short term target ? Pls

as said the other day been in a trading range for a yr of 1.30 - 1.59 so until it breaks 1 way or the other it continue to bounce around within

[Beagle]

well on that big buy by the director i have decided have a trade on the long side

Welcome back. Greg Tomlinson is a very astute businessman and the size of the acquisition was substantial. Follow the smart inside money. Smart move.

[winner69]

Hope Greg buys more Heartland soon ...needs a bit if a boost

[winner69]

Radius going to let visitors

Brent might follow suit seeing he was pretty vocal about the subject last week

https://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/covid-19-delta-outbreak-the-retirement-village-thats-defying-guidelines-and-opening-to-visitors/C2BYCC7H74MWWBPW6AZ7JG36DY/

[Beagle]

Radius going to let visitors

Brent might follow suit seeing he was pretty vocal about the subject last week

https://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/covid-19-delta-outbreak-the-retirement-village-thats-defying-guidelines-and-opening-to-visitors/C2BYCC7H74MWWBPW6AZ7JG36DY/

Giving the middle finger to the ministry of health, but with very stringent entry conditions. Double vaccinated PLUS confirmation of a negative Covid test within the last 7 days and temperature checks as well and additionally only by appointment. Proof of negative test a bit over the top in my opinion. Double vax plus temperature test plus appointment plus mask wearing should surely be enough ?

[Bjauck]

Giving the middle finger to the ministry of health, but with very stringent entry conditions. Double vaccinated PLUS confirmation of a negative Covid test within the last 7 days and temperature checks as well and additionally only by appointment. Proof of negative test a bit over the top in my opinion. Double vax plus temperature test plus appointment plus mask wearing should surely be enough ? I can fully see how it is almost cruel to deny visitors to residents for so long.

However I am not sure how it works with covid requirement. If they receive Health Board funding wouldn't they have to follow the particular Health Board's requirements? I am not sure how many strings are attached to Rest Home registration and funding.

[RTM]

Giving the middle finger to the ministry of health, but with very stringent entry conditions. Double vaccinated PLUS confirmation of a negative Covid test within the last 7 days and temperature checks as well and additionally only by appointment. Proof of negative test a bit over the top in my opinion. Double vax plus temperature test plus appointment plus mask wearing should surely be enough ?

Dunno....I am not a health expert.

[Beagle]

Dunno....I am not a health expert.

Yeah fair comment I'll leave it to the health experts. I feel pretty strongly about it because I went through some weeks of being denied entry to see my dying Mum earlier this year. Its was bloody tough on everyone and that was just a few weeks. Thankfully in the end we all did get plenty of chances to say our goodbye's so that was nice and she's passed now so we are spared this current emotional torment. I really feel for these people because they're staring down the barrel of not only missing contact for the last 10 weeks but maybe another 10 weeks or who knows how many more as well :eek2: From an emotional point of view that's excruciatingly painful. You can't hug dying loved ones over the phone !!

Anyway...back to OCA, nice to see it making a start on heading in the right direction.

[tommy_d]

. Proof of negative test a bit over the top in my opinion. Double vax plus temperature test plus appointment plus mask wearing should surely be enough ?
hesitant about commenting on covid
as long as they allow some rapid saliva testing and can access for $1 a pop or whatever then seems ok.
such a hard one for them to risk manage, both on real risk likelihood scenario and on an imagine if a client died how would we look ok risk

[Poet]

but that would mean he clearly broke one of the rules.

so we can infer the result is within guidance (even more than we usually can)

My take is that he wanted to buy earlier but they were looking at the possible acquisition of Arena so he was precluded from buy/sell. Once Arena was purchased by Arvida, he was free to go.

[Beagle]

My take is that he wanted to buy earlier but they were looking at the possible acquisition of Arena so he was precluded from buy/sell. Once Arena was purchased by Arvida, he was free to go.

I don't think that theory holds water. Please see this article which tends to support the proposition that the acquisition of Arena was not a contested process
https://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/arvida-group-buying-arena-livings-six-villages-from-blackstone-for-345m-transformative/2F2ZQLMM65NAH55LCABO3R6DQM/
Excerpt Arena is owned by funds management advisors and one of the world's largest alternative asset managers, Blackstone, which has head offices in New York. Nicholl said he had been dealing with Blackstone people in Sydney. "We've been talking over the last few months. It came about via existing relationships. We got into an exclusive due diligence position," Nicoll said.

Whatever the case my be about Mr Tomlinson's buying its nice to see this beached "whale" get a bit of a lift this week.

13136

Apparently elephant seals can move quite quickly so you never know...

[couta1]

This Whale has started the short week back on the beach. Lol

[allfromacell]

I don’t think it’s a single seller, the market could be concerned that our current nursing shortage will look cute looking back in 6 months time when our health-system could be terminal from the effects of Covid-19. Remember you can still end up in hospital after 2 shots and our health staffing and infrastructure are an embarrassment.

Our residential property bubble is also ripe for a good pop as interest rates rise and some kiwi’s learn a hard lesson about diversification and leverage.

Happy to hold but these two risks are very real imo.

[Beagle]

Yes and as discussed before you never really know what Spindy's woke kindy will come up with next either.

Next king tide is due in late November, maybe we can float this whale then ?

[justakiwi]

It would be really nice if we could enjoy discussions on OCA and other companies, without the constant political commentary. Can we please just stick to the subject and keep the government/Jacinda bashing for the other thread? That way, those of us who don't want or need to hear it, can avoid that thread and keep our sanity.

Please.

[Beagle]

Human nature is that people will discuss anything they perceive as relevant to the risks and opportunities of any company in that companies thread.
Expecting otherwise is unrealistic.

P.S. Next high tide has just been confirmed as Monday morning 29 November. Lets hope its a king tide and we can refloat this whale :)
https://www.nzx.com/announcements/381579

[iceman]

It would be really nice if we could enjoy discussions on OCA and other companies, without the constant political commentary. Can we please just stick to the subject and keep the government/Jacinda bashing for the other thread? That way, those of us who don't want or need to hear it, can avoid that thread and keep our sanity.

Please.

Government policy is highly relevant to this thread

[Dlownz]

Results out Monday 29th.jusy one month to wait

[dompf]

Human nature is that people will discuss anything they perceive as relevant to the risks and opportunities of any company in that companies thread.
Expecting otherwise is unrealistic.

P.S. Next high tide has just been confirmed as Monday morning 29 November. Lets hope its a king tide and we can refloat this whale :)

bring on the 29th OCA should report every 3m. 6m way too long in this wild world.

[Greekwatchdog]

They sux. Communication to shareholders is nothing short of abysmal compared to the other listed operators. Best they look up communication and see what it mean's. Any wonder its treated like a beetlebomb.

[Beagle]

I agree. Summerset have quarterly sales updates and Arvida have regular investor news updates which amount to interim updates between the half and full year reporting dates.

Its a long time between drinks with OCA and its market updates...too long. In due course I might have a word with the chief about that.

[justakiwi]

I agree but that's not what I am referring to. I am talking about the never ending stream of immature, childish ranting about Jacinda, and anyone who supports Labour. Those comments achieve nothing, and are not relevant to an adult discussion about OCA. There is at least one other thread here that people can (and do) use to express those views. I don't think it's too much to ask, for people to use that thread for that purpose. Some of us want to participate in a mature and useful discussion here, without the distraction of unnecessary political rants. I doubt I am the only one.


Government policy is highly relevant to this thread

[garfy]

justakiwi. I admire your constraint. And I totally concur with your opinion. I am surprised that contributors on this topic, who have valuable and instructive thoughts on OCA, should have such trivial childish opinions on a topic that is accounted for elsewhere. Stick to the knitting!!

[Beagle]

I agree but that's not what I am referring to. I am talking about the never ending stream of immature, childish ranting about Jacinda, and anyone who supports Labour. Those comments achieve nothing, and are not relevant to an adult discussion about OCA. There is at least one other thread here that people can (and do) use to express those views. I don't think it's too much to ask, for people to use that thread for that purpose. Some of us want to participate in a mature and useful discussion here, without the distraction of unnecessary political rants. I doubt I am the only one.

1. Last week you complained that the posts in this thread were too negative. I am sorry that you appear to have no perspective for the hell Aucklanders are going through doing it so hard for the rest of New Zealand and sorry we can't all behave like everything is a whole barrel of fluffy ducks all the time. It isn't.

2. This week you're complaining about political aspects despite Labour now having a track record of passing legislation that radically undermines property investors rights that have existed for over 100 years. If you think there isn't legislative risk here you're very sadly mistaken.

What makes you think you have the right to ask for others to modify their posting style to suit your tastes ?

[couta1]

Yes I'm afraid the current Govt are completely unpredictable and make up policy on the fly so they are indeed a very real risk to a company such as this, on the one hand they can't do without the services that OCA provide but will that be enough to stop them interfering?

[Beagle]

Yes I'm afraid the current Govt are completely unpredictable and make up policy on the fly so they are indeed a very real risk to a company such as this, on the one hand they can't do without the services that OCA provide but will that be enough to stop them interfering?

Who knows mate and that's why it pays to stay well diversified.

[justakiwi]

There was nothing aggressive in my post. Assertive maybe, but not aggressive. But you my friend, are of course entitled to your opinion.

I stand by my comments and request, which was made politely and respectfully. I had hoped that you might be mature enough to understand where I was coming from, but apparently not. Real shame.

Clearly it is time to look for an alternative to ST. There is now very little learning to be done here. Almost every thread turns into a political rant, and I for one, am tired of it. I get enough of it at work. I don't need it here.

You can keep (and enjoy) your OCA/anti Jacinda diatribe thread. I will stick to the more mature discussions from now on.



WOW - Okay I am going to weigh in here since you started this and are the tone of the above is unnecessary.
1. Last week you complained that the posts in this thread were too negative. I am sorry that you appear to have no perspective for the hell Aucklanders are going through doing it so hard for the rest of New Zealand and sorry we can't all behave like everything is a whole barrel of fluffy ducks all the time. It isn't.
2. This week you're complaining about political aspects despite this bunch of armatures now having a track record of passing legislation that radically undermines property investors rights that have existed for over 100 years. If you think there isn't legislative risk here you're sadly mistaken.

What makes you think you have the right to ask for others to modify their posting style to suit your tastes ?

People will post whatever they like, negative and positive that's relevant and we're not here to kowtow to your requests and pet likes and dislikes.

Frankly I'm very disappointed with the very aggressive tone of your post.

[Beagle]

Maybe if you had serious money invested in real estate you would have an understanding of what it feels like for the Government to strip away the right to claim interest deductibility on rental properties and undermine the rights of investors that have existed for more than 100 years ? Its easy to be dispassionate when you're not affected.

You get delivered regular information nuggets of gold on this forum from highly experienced investors like me and many others. Here's a thought, why not just be appreciative for all those gifts rather than complaining about and critiquing the wrapper they come in ?

[Baa_Baa]

Does anyone remember when OCA listed on the ASX and why, did they provide any reasoning? I ask because it seems the high cost of listing, plus ongoing costs of compliance reporting and yet the volume of trades is pitiful.

[dompf]

Maybe if you had serious money invested in real estate you would have an understanding of what it feels like for the Government to strip away the right to claim interest deductibility on rental properties and undermine the rights of investors that have existed for more than 100 years ? Its easy to be dispassionate when you're not affected.

You get delivered regular information nuggets of gold on this forum from highly experienced investors like me and many others. Here's a thought, why not just be appreciative for all those gifts rather than complaining about and critiquing the wrapper they come in ?


The pain in Auckland is huge, small businesses failing almost daily. The tax on investors is the same as a lot of moves of this unpredictable government. It’s relevant that we have a very unstable government for any share across the market.

if the government wernt laser focused on killing all small businesses and taxing as much as they can with the ruse of keeping you safe. I’m sure they would try ruin the retirement sector as well without understanding it.

we shall see. I’m in Auckland and have a large holding in OCA and properties.

[justakiwi]

Would you like me to make a list of all the "thank yous" I have posted here since I joined? Plus all the private messages I have sent many people? Oh, and I almost forgot, the emails I have sent a select few, behind the scenes.

You are lucky I didn't read this until after I messaged you earlier.



You get delivered regular information nuggets of gold on this forum from highly experienced investors like me and many others. Here's a thought, why not just be appreciative for all those gifts rather than complaining about and critiquing the wrapper they come in ?

[Panda-NZ-]

The tax on investors is the same as a lot of moves of this unpredictable government. It’s relevant that we have a very unstable government for any share across the market.


NZX has doubled since 2017

[Beagle]

The pain in Auckland is huge, small businesses failing almost daily. The tax on investors is the same as a lot of moves of this unpredictable government. It’s relevant that we have a very unstable government for any share across the market.

if the government wernt laser focused on killing all small businesses and taxing as much as they can with the ruse of keeping you safe. I’m sure they would try ruin the retirement sector as well without understanding it.

we shall see. I’m in Auckland and have a large holding in OCA and properties.

You've hit the nail on the head mate. This is like living in the trenches in the Vietnam war...just waiting for the next bomb to drop. When are the case numbers really going to go exponential ? When will I or my loved ones catch Covid ? Which of my favorite local business's will fail next ? Will some of my friends go broke ? What direction will this Government lurch in when they next make up policy on the fly ?

I guess its easy for others that see no pain and feel no pain to wonder what all the fuss is about.

[dobby41]

You've hit the nail on the head mate. This is like living in the trenches in the Vietnam war...

But without the deaths - think about it.

[Beagle]

But without the deaths - think about it.

Its early days. The woeful level of ICU capacity that the Govt tried to spin has gone up has actually gone backwards according to leading specialists reports published last week and is now of third world standards. Hospitals will get overrun as sure as night follows day and then the bombing will really start. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Ds6mvK4olQ4

Looking through to the other side of this unfolding apocalypse the upshot of all this is that once the widespread carnage is over elderly people will crave the security of living in a care suite or an apartment knowing they can move to a care suite when necessary with the security of knowing they'll be looked after and OCA sales will go gangbusters and at record high prices, (if our new CEO is smart enough to put the prices up).

[dobby41]

Looking through to the other side of this unfolding apocalypse the upshot of all this is that once the widespread carnage is over elderly people will crave the security of living in a care suite or an apartment knowing they can move to a care suite when necessary with the security of knowing they'll be looked after and OCA sales will go gangbusters and at record high prices, (if our new CEO is smart enough to put the prices up).

The outlook for the retirement housing sector is very good indeed.

[justakiwi]

Beagle, you are clearly very stressed and anxious right now. Which is understandable. Maybe it's time to take a break again, so you don't fall back into the pattern of taking your stress and frustration out on others. You took exception to my civil request to leave the Cindy bashing out of every thread in this forum, but your reaction both publicly and via rep vote/PM, was excessive. I have tried to explain again, to you, why I asked what I did, but you refuse to even try to understand.

You need to vent. I get that. But as I said before, there are already at least two appropriate threads for you to do that - one is a thread about Labour, and the other is the covid thread. I stand by my initial post and request that you simply use those threads to vent your frustration about the government. I fully appreciate that political decisions are relevant to OCA, but the Cindy bashing rants are not. You are not the only one here who is stressed. Maybe not for the same reasons as you, but stressed all the same. Everyone's stress is legitimate.

Clearly, you see me as being callous and lacking empathy for the current situation for those of you in Auckland. You are wrong about that. I feel for you and I hope things change for you all, very soon. But you cannot use the situation as an excuse for your behaviour in these forums, or the way you react to people.

All I am really asking is can we all please stay on topic so we can enjoy discussing OCA without all the emotional distractions. Pretty simple really.







You've hit the nail on the head mate. This is like living in the trenches in the Vietnam war...just waiting for the next bomb to drop. When are the case numbers really going to go exponential ? When will I or my loved ones catch Covid ? Which of my favorite local business's will fail next ? Will some of my friends go broke ? What direction will this Government lurch in when they next make up policy on the fly ?

I guess its easy for others that see no pain and feel no pain to wonder what all the fuss is about.

[Rawz]

Beagle, you are clearly very stressed and anxious right now. Which is understandable. Maybe it's time to take a break again, so you don't fall back into the pattern of taking your stress and frustration out on others. You took exception to my civil request to leave the Cindy bashing out of every thread in this forum, but your reaction both publicly and via rep vote/PM, was excessive. I have tried to explain again, to you, why I asked what I did, but you refuse to even try to understand.

You need to vent. I get that. But as I said before, there are already at least two appropriate threads for you to do that - one is a thread about Labour, and the other is the covid thread. I stand by my initial post and request that you simply use those threads to vent your frustration about the government. I fully appreciate that political decisions are relevant to OCA, but the Cindy bashing rants are not. You are not the only one here who is stressed. Maybe not for the same reasons as you, but stressed all the same. Everyone's stress is legitimate.

Clearly, you see me as being callous and lacking empathy for the current situation for those of you in Auckland. You are wrong about that. I feel for you and I hope things change for you all, very soon. But you cannot use the situation as an excuse for your behaviour in these forums, or the way you react to people.

All I am really asking is can we all please stay on topic so we can enjoy discussing OCA without all the emotional distractions. Pretty simple really.

Welcome to the internet JAK. A bit of advice, if you dont like what you read on ST or facebook or Instagram etc etc just keep scrolling. You have gone and posted a novel completely unrelated to OCA. Doing exactly what you dont want lol

[justakiwi]

Touché..........true. Clever boy.


Welcome to the internet JAK. A bit of advice, if you dont like what you read on ST or facebook or Instagram etc etc just keep scrolling. You have gone and posted a novel completely unrelated to OCA. Doing exactly what you dont want lol

[HITMAN]

Welcome to the internet JAK. A bit of advice, if you dont like what you read on ST or facebook or Instagram etc etc just keep scrolling. You have gone and posted a novel completely unrelated to OCA. Doing exactly what you dont want lol

Agreed, it’s a forum, people can walk down any path they want, main focus is on the OCA share. The government has a huge effect on these companies so it can all be relèvent in different forms.

I brought some at $1.43 so be ready for it to dive.

[Beagle]

JAK - let me give you a piece of advice love that took me about a full decade on here to learn.

Anyone can say thank you for the nuggets of gold other highly experienced investors share on here that help them make a lot of money. Words are cheap. The real way to express thanks is to show respect and give people a very wide degree of latitude with their posts all the time respecting that the nuggets of gold do not always come dressed up with pretty little bows and wrappers to your liking.

When you start dictating terms on what you think posters should or shouldn't post in any particular thread, you've lost the plot. Sometimes being quiet is the hardest thing. Yesterday you said you were going to take a break from this thread. I think that's a very good idea for you. Nothing material is going to happen between now and 29 November. Have a nice day :)

[alokdhir]

Agreed, it’s a forum, people can walk down any path they want, main focus is on the OCA share. The government has a huge effect on these companies so it can all be relèvent in different forms.

I brought some at $1.43 so be ready for it to dive.

Please sell ...lol