OCA - Oceania Group - retirement villages

[bull....]

deploying there bond money to pay for higher wages for builders , higher materials costs , higher everything lol

[jimdog31]

deploying there bond money to pay for higher wages for builders , higher materials costs , higher everything lol

That depends on whether its an acquisition, brownfield (holding income) or greenfields.... I wont bite at that.

[couta1]

That depends on whether its an acquisition, brownfield (holding income) or greenfields.... I wont bite at that. Once bull starts drifting towards trolling posts then best to just let him talk to the hand.

[jimdog31]

deploying there bond money to pay for higher wages for builders , higher materials costs , higher everything lol

Or hells teeth, how about deploying it on an asset that rides inflation until they're ready?

[alokdhir]

As per the Gurus here of OCA ...its an screaming value buy ... So hopefully it will be OK soon ...over 1.40 in a weeks time will be reassuring

[bull....]

Or hells teeth, how about deploying it on an asset that rides inflation until they're ready?

house prices stall next yr but costs keep skyrocketing cant be good for margins for any developer. just saying ...something to keep an eye on

[Antipodean]

Gregory Tomlinson recently had ~2.5m reasons to think it was worth more than $1.41 per share.

[Beau]

As per the Gurus here of OCA ...its an screaming value buy ... So hopefully it will be OK soon ...over 1.40 in a weeks time will be reassuring

Agree bought some more this morning adding for the long term , great value for money trade at present :t_up:

[Muse]

house prices stall next yr but costs keep skyrocketing cant be good for margins for any developer. just saying ...something to keep an eye on

A valid point to consider

[Greekwatchdog]

A valid point to consider

I would really like to think and sound business will adjust there numbers accordingly to protect margins. Lets not forget another 5 days sick leave and 1 extra Public Holiday being added as well to Transport and Building costs. If you don't adjust you die.

[couta1]

Looks to be some urgency to the selling pattern today so the ARV placement does look like the likely culprit.

[JohnnyTheHorse]

Daily RSI at 25 and right at that $1.32 support. Made a few swing entries today for a bounce.

[aperitif]

What a gift, fantastic long term buying

[Dlownz]

In my opinion. Not sure if it means much but we'll oversold stock. Thanks everyone on a 1.33

[Beagle]

I would really like to think and sound business will adjust there numbers accordingly to protect margins. Lets not forget another 5 days sick leave and 1 extra Public Holiday being added as well to Transport and Building costs. If you don't adjust you die.

Agree. A lot of fearmongering B.S. going on here from some others, (not you). Lets remember this is a needs / lifestyle business. If people want that lovely new care suite or apartment at Waimarie St overlooking the Hauraki Gulf they are going to have to pay up for it and frankly I think there will be no shortage of demand.

Very recently one of the smartest businessmen in N.Z. (with inside knowledge of how the business is tracking), bought millions more at $1.41
Something to reflect on isn't it !

[bottomfeeder]

My substantial shareholder notice will be in soon. Getting a bit nervous now.

[Greekwatchdog]

Agree. A lot of fearmongering B.S. going on here from some others, (not you). Lets remember this is a needs / lifestyle business. If people want that lovely new care suite or apartment at Waimarie St overlooking the Hauraki Gulf they are going to have to pay up for it and frankly I think there will be no shortage of demand.

Demographics going forward are enormous for sector and we can't build villages fast enough. Lower house prices will be very moderate IMO and I see little concern on this. And new builds will still be at a significantly priced regardless of location.

As for Govt review of sector. More talk just like Gas price review.

25th Nov will be interesting day for OCA thou 2nd half will obviously be better than 1st half.

[Sideshow Bob]

Just had a gander at the ASX to see what was happening there.

Not much the answer. Average volume of 5,606. Have to wonder why bother.....

[Beagle]

Demographics going forward are enormous for sector and we can't build villages fast enough. Lower house prices will be very moderate IMO and I see little concern on this. And new builds will still be at a significantly priced regardless of location.

As for Govt review of sector. More talk just like Gas price review.

25th Nov will be interesting day for OCA thou 2nd half will obviously be better than 1st half.

29th mate.

[Greekwatchdog]

29th mate.
Thanks Beagle. Back to my kennel for a Siesta me thinks.

[Baa_Baa]

A bounce here, if it holds, off the 400EMA $1.335 with the RSI technically flat on oversold and Stoch ticking up, could indicate a bottom in the SP. Technicals suggest this could be a good buying opportunity but with some risks as the SP hasn't turned up out of this 2-month downtrend yet.

[bull....]

we have a death cross as well

[couta1]

we have a death cross as well Tell that to holders that will double their money in a few yrs time, I doubt they care.

[Baa_Baa]

we have a death cross as well

Not really, the usual definition of a 'death cross' is the 50MA crossing down through the 200MA, which hasn't happened. The 50EMA has crossed down through the 100EMA on 26/10 - old news.

bull**** stirring the pot for some reason?

[couta1]

Not really, the usual definition of a 'death cross' is the 50MA crossing down through the 200MA, which hasn't happened. The 50EMA has crossed down through the 100EMA on 26/10 - old news.

bull**** stirring the pot for some reason? He is looking for a trading entry which is now staring him in the face, be quick bull or the gift horse will bolt.

[bull....]

i must have seen the future

[Beagle]

Enough bull**** already bull, any more gets more negative rep.

[Panda-NZ-]

Bull is a sage, somone of great insight and wisdom.

I picked up some OCA with spare cash nonetheless.. I like the NTA aspect.

[jimdog31]

Enough bull**** already bull, any more gets more negative rep.

Can we vote to change his name to Bear.....

[bull....]

Enough bull**** already bull, any more gets more negative rep.

you not onto are you a death cross is an actual thing.

https://www.investopedia.com/terms/d/deathcross.asp

perhaps you should read and educate yourself.

what i say is no different to you saying its going to $2 when it comes to talking about my future prediction.
So i dont know you must have been caught with your pants down to be so mad and threaten us with negative reps again.


anyway i must go its dinner time i hear mum calling

[Beagle]

1.34 :scared: the titanic comes to mind. ive got my buy on at a dollar save the day it will


deploying there bond money to pay for higher wages for builders , higher materials costs , higher everything lol


house prices stall next yr but costs keep skyrocketing cant be good for margins for any developer. just saying ...something to keep an eye on


we have a death cross as well

All in the one day. We all know you're trying to talk the price down so you can get in cheaper. Give it a rest for goodness sake.

[Beagle]

Can we vote to change his name to Bear.....

No mate bull is better. Its as pain as day when he's talking bull****.

[Greekwatchdog]

All in the one day. We all know you're trying to talk the price down so you can get in cheaper. Give it a rest for goodness sake.

100% spot on Beagle.

[Joh13]

we have a death cross as well

*looking back over the most punishing bear markets of the past century, it seems the death cross holds up best once the market has already lost 20% of its value. In those instances, investors who fled stocks minimized their losses. But for smaller corrections of less than 20%, the temporary appearance of the death cross may be reflecting losses already booked, and thus indicates a buying opportunity*

From your own link Bull….

[Panda-NZ-]

All in the one day. We all know you're trying to talk the price down so you can get in cheaper. Give it a rest for goodness sake.

If the fundamentals were compelling then it wouldn't matter as much. :)

[winner69]

Some traders see a death cross as bullish

[Mista_Trix]

you not onto are you a death cross is an actual thing.

https://www.investopedia.com/terms/d/deathcross.asp

perhaps you should read and educate yourself.

what i say is no different to you saying its going to $2 when it comes to talking about my future prediction.
So i dont know you must have been caught with your pants down to be so mad and threaten us with negative reps again.


anyway i must go its dinner time i hear mum calling

What are you talking about ... the 50ma hasn't yet gone through. The 20ma has but not the 50. The article you've linked doesnt support what you're saying.

[Baa_Baa]

Some traders see a death cross as bullish

Absolutely, if you trade or momentum longs then it's reasonable to assume you're looking for SP lows, you wouldn't buy the cross itself but follow the sentiment down, maybe average in on both sides of the low if you're fortunate to pick it, roughly is good enough.

[Rawz]

A bit of fear setting in now.

Long term:
If you are buying now you wont regret it.
If you sell now you will.
13182

[dobby41]

All in the one day. We all know you're trying to talk the price down so you can get in cheaper. Give it a rest for goodness sake.

Does he really have that much sway on the price?

[winner69]

Even the rainbow moving averages paint a not so bright future

The OBV still heading down .....no divergence yet

[Beagle]

Well done to those that bought yesterday. All Arvida capital raise money now fully funded, no worries, onward and upward from here.
Into the 140's next week :t_up:

[couta1]

Well done to those that bought yesterday. All Arvida capital raise money now fully funded, no worries, onward and upward from here.
Into the 140's next week :t_up: Yep looks like the ARV turkeys have vacated the premises, good riddance.

[Snow Leopard]

Enough bull**** already bull, any more gets more negative rep.


No mate bull is better. Its as pain as day when he's talking bull****.

Ironic coming from the Diarrhea Dog

[alokdhir]

Well done to those that bought yesterday. All Arvida capital raise money now fully funded, no worries, onward and upward from here.
Into the 140's next week :t_up:

Yesterday I managed to reduce my average by good 3 cents ...so pretty pleased with the opportunity . Now lets hope your forecast of over 1.40 soon comes true

[Beagle]

Ironic coming from the Diarrhea Dog

I've challenged you repeatedly over the years to contribute some valuable analysis of your own. I'm still waiting to hear any from our resident sour puss :p

[Beagle]

Yesterday I managed to reduce my average by good 3 cents ...so pretty pleased with the opportunity . Now lets hope your forecast of over 1.40 soon comes true

Well done. I had enough already.

[dreamcatcher]

Probably not Arvida but rising Bonds causing falls..........

Property stocks pull NZX 50 lower - Good Returns (https://www.goodreturns.co.nz/article/976519565/property-stocks-pull-nzx-50-lower.html)

[couta1]

Well done. I had enough already. Hardly, remember what Mav kept saying, you can't have too many and you've got a way to go to catch the Couta so keep buying.

[alokdhir]

Well done. I had enough already.

Whats OCA weightage at the moment if u happy to share ...just to get an idea how convinced u r about its future :p

[Beagle]

Whats OCA weightage at the moment if u happy to share ...just to get an idea how convinced u r about its future :p

OCA is the highest weighting of any of my NZX shares, (apart from Barramundi) which is higher but is really an Australian investment listed here. Happy to share that much. I don't do go hard or go home, that's for the sports field and for younger dog's than me.

[winner69]

Probably not Arvida but rising Bonds causing falls..........

Property stocks pull NZX 50 lower - Good Returns (https://www.goodreturns.co.nz/article/976519565/property-stocks-pull-nzx-50-lower.html)

You on to it dreamer

I dont think Arvida capital raise had much impact on OCA share price

Like the much touted theory that MET funds would boost the OCA share price - that never happened

[couta1]

You on to it dreamer

I dont think Arvida capital raise had much impact on OCA share price

Like the much touted theory that MET funds would boost the OCA share price - that never happened Hmm the sell depth looks significantly thinner today so draw your own conclusions on that one.

[Joshuatree]

Hardly, remember what Mav kept saying, you can't have too many and you've got a way to go to catch the Couta so keep buying.
Mav doing the pumping that i hope couta has learnt not to ,from ATM. At least its slightly indirect thats maybe evidence and no mass pump posts atpit, gotta credit that, give the benefit of the doubt.:mellow:

[Rawz]

Where is Mav and his wise words. Wonder if he is trying to buy as many as he can at these prices?

[Beagle]

Maybe Mav has been the seller :eek2:

[alokdhir]

Maybe Mav has been the seller :eek2:


Very possible Mr B has great insights how it works ....Pump and Dump ...:D

[couta1]

OCA is the highest weighting of any of my NZX shares, (apart from Barramundi) which is higher but is really an Australian investment listed here. Happy to share that much. I don't do go hard or go home, that's for the sports field and for younger dog's than me. I think you meant to say thats for the ski field and older dogs than me. Lol

[oldtech]

Maybe Mav has been the seller :eek2:


LOL ... Beagle be stirring methinks :p

https://www.acrylicsticks.com/products/beagle-acrylic-stir-sticks

Whoever's selling, I've taken advantage and reduced my average price by more than 3 cents - which goes to show that I bought the last lot too high - should never have sold the ones I bought at 45 cents :scared:

[Mrbuyit]

Grabbed a few more yesterday which has hurt my 87c average, but will stuff them into the bottom drawer..

[Maverick]

Where is Mav and his wise words. Wonder if he is trying to buy as many as he can at these prices?

Ok Rawz, I'll come out and play now " it's all quiet on the western front ".
All here should have a good understanding of this company by now with so many excellent posts over the years. Each will now have well formed opinions on the current SP too. ( you will know mine).
There is nothing new to contribute in this post regarding the upcoming HY result that isnt already posted.
Just to reiterate, I expect a flat ( or ever slightly up) result to PCP due to AKL lockdown delaying sales timing. It was going to be a goodie but that's delayed now.
It will seem a dull report overall to most but its strength will be the steady as she goes result despite disruptions , increased care profits and construction progress ( the expensive stuff is not finished and ready for sale yet). There will be many gems in the report that wont be told by the bottom line.

Generally I think a lot of readers are going to be disappointed with OCA over the years to come. Not because it isn't a very solid and quality investment . IMO it's the SAFEST and best value on the market.
Rather it will potentially disappoint as many here are looking for excitement and action.
Here's a phrase that helps sums up what I mean

"If its exciting ,its not investing , its gambling"

OCA as an investment , despite its juggernaut progress will continue be like watching grass grow ( just as Bull quipped recently).
BTW....No, it's not me selling, ....the band has arrived and is just setting up.

[Beagle]

I confess I am a naughty dog and I knew there was a good chance my post would get you out of your rabbit hole :p
Yeap its as boring as watching grass grow and more boring than watching paint dry but as you say, boring is good.

[winner69]

It seems so long ago that Macquarie quit what they had left at $1.20

Good price back then

[BlackPeter]

It seems so long ago that Macquarie quit what they had left at $1.20

Good price back then

True ... but wasn't it on special for 40 cents per share in March 23, 2020? Hey, this was a good price!

Discl: Missed that opportunity as well ... my cheapest buy into OCA was 55 cents March 19th, 2020 ... - and yes, I bought them on the way down ... bad habit!

[tommy_d]

"If its exciting ,its not investing , its gambling"

OCA as an investment , despite its juggernaut progress will continue be like watching grass grow ( just as Bull quipped recently).
BTW....No, it's not me selling, ....the band has arrived and is just setting up.

i played poker for a living for six years. OCA is indeed boring in contrast. 20% of portfolio, bought some more yesterday, couldn't resist -average price now up to close to a dollar. Might buy some NTL to get the gamble buzz

[Dlownz]

Who's ready for the whale to relaunch on high tide 😂🐳😁

[couta1]

Who's ready for the whale to relaunch on high tide  Lets do this.

[Dlownz]

Looks like the tides coming in

[Beagle]

High tide is approx 9.30 a.m. on 29 November 2021 and I am expecting a 1.50 meter tide so the water level should keep rising between now and then. Well done to those that picked the low tide at 1.33 !

[Chinesekiwi]

So Jarden have sold some 3 million odd shares.

[Baa_Baa]

So Jarden have sold some 3 million odd shares.

.............

[Beagle]

Looks to me (in a convoluted disclosure to the NZX), that Harbour Asset Management have been the real sellers.

[jimdog31]

Looks to me (in a convoluted disclosure to the NZX), that Harbour Asset Management have been the real sellers.

The real question is, are they done?

[Beagle]

Who knows mate but the timing of their disclosure lines up with my theory that some fund managers have been selling to enable them to participate in the Arvida placement and subsequent rights issue so I think one can legitimately makes the case that joining the dots seems like a reasonable conclusion.

The Arvida thing, the second part of which closed today - A third of a billion dollars is a big ask as a capital raise on the NZX. I am not surprised its had a material impact on the share price of other companies in the retirement sector.

[winner69]

Looks to me (in a convoluted disclosure to the NZX), that Harbour Asset Management have been the real sellers.

Harbour have SUM as one of their bigger holdings …..in the top 5 in their Australasian Equity Fund

[Beagle]

Harbour have SUM as one of their bigger holdings …..in the top 5 in their Australasian Equity Fund

A favorite with Fisher Funds as well. Its quite plausible to me that the far easier ability to comprehend SUM's financial statements could be a factor at work here.

[jimdog31]

A favorite with Fisher Funds as well. Its quite plausible to me that the far easier ability to comprehend SUM's financial statements could be a factor at work here.

I agree. Maybe we need to en masse email Investor relations asking for more readable financials or more commentary in laymans terms

[Maverick]

here`s a weird question Winner.
OCA`s 1HY report comes out Monday morning 29th. It has always been Thursday or Friday.
So with your corporate life time of acquired knowledge (coupled with your learned cynicism ) can we read anything into this unusual day for the announcement. I also note its out a week later than usual.

Perhaps another purchase? or just a result so good they want to give the market a full week of buying opportunity?
(a simple yes to either question will be just fine;))

[bull....]

have to wonder why big fund is selling down before results dont you

[couta1]

have to wonder why big fund is selling down before results dont you Not really, happens all the time and big fund still has an awful lot of shares, why didn't they sell the lot if they were that worried?

[bull....]

Not really, happens all the time and big fund still has an awful lot of shares, why didn't they sell the lot if they were that worried?

maybe they are. anyway the bounce was from an oversold level that has now worked off and the death cross :scared: is still in play

[850man]

maybe they are. anyway the bounce was from an oversold level that has now worked off and the death cross :scared: is still in play

Still a fair bit of selling evident today

[bottomfeeder]

Don't think that it's a sell off due to an unexpected event. Firstly under continuous disclosure requirements, the market would have to be notified and also, could stink of insider trading. Either way shareholders would be in revolt. I think its to do with a reweighting in the industry classification. Fund managers don't make quick decisions. And percentage holdings in various industries are hard to change in a hurry. Arvida inflows must come from other industry investments and Oceania is a good one to sell down because it also shows a good profit for their fund.

[JohnnyTheHorse]

maybe they are. anyway the bounce was from an oversold level that has now worked off and the death cross :scared: is still in play

Took my 5cps profit and ran :t_up:

[bull....]

Took my 5cps profit and ran :t_up:

no doubt about it OCA a great trading stock

[couta1]

no doubt about it OCA a great trading stock I doubt most holders of this stock give a toss about that especially when it doubles/triples in price over time, 5c here or there will be completely insignificant.

[Beagle]

Maybe so but its official I am now a grumpy Beagle. I am tired of watching this beached whale lie on the beach doing nothing. Not sure how much more patience I have with this thing.

[alokdhir]

Wait till the results to see if it moves ...otherwise out it goes ...No one likes sluggish stock in portfolio eating away opportunity costs !!!

[couta1]

Wait till the results to see if it moves ...otherwise out it goes ...No one likes sluggish stock in portfolio eating away opportunity costs !!! I highly doubt it will move on the result only beforehand, it will probably go down afterwards if it has any move prior so its a long termer with a small dividend.

[bottomfeeder]

I highly doubt it will move on the result only beforehand, it will probably go down afterwards if it has any move prior so its a long termer with a small dividend.

Will move after full year result, too early days for completion of projects, and revaluation of holdings. So unfortunately have to hold for six more months before it reached 1.70

[alokdhir]

I highly doubt it will move on the result only beforehand, it will probably go down afterwards if it has any move prior so its a long termer with a small dividend.

Normally either they move before results up then down on news or down before results then up on good news ...lets c which side this whale chooses ...its in no man's land at the moment time wise ...so still need wait ...not good time to get out ....IMO

[Joh13]

The SP is down on only small volume, if it was large volume again it would be meaningful but it doesn’t seem that it is.

I topped up again at $1.34, NAV should be pretty close to that now I would think.

[dompf]

Maybe so but its official I am now a grumpy Beagle. I am tired of watching this beached whale lie on the beach doing nothing. Not sure how much more patience I have with this thing.

Patience is definitely needed! hopefully we are rewarded im waiting on Moby Dick.

All aboard Captain!

[Baa_Baa]

The SP is down on only small volume, if it was large volume again it would be meaningful but it doesn’t seem that it is.

I topped up again at $1.34, NAV should be pretty close to that now I would think.

Proportionally to the total number of trades, there are many more low or very low value trades, every day. These low value trades are just as capable of shifting the SP a few cents either way.

Nothing to see here, close the bottom drawer on your OCA stocks or buy some more while the SP is wallowing, then chuck them in the bottom drawer along with the others.

[JohnnyTheHorse]

I sold all long term holdings in the retirement sector and REITs when yields were spiking and it became apparent that inflation wasn't quite so 'transitory'. My opinion is that by far the largest influence of property prices is the cost and availability of credit. We have both of these things going against property at an extremely rapid pace. A 20%+ correction in property prices in the next 12-24 months is a very credible scenario, however it'll come down to what happens with inflation. Best case scenario for property is higher rates cause recession, inflation eases and rates are lowered again. The worst case is that we enter recession and inflation is persisting.

I believe fund managers are reweighting their portfolios to lower exposure to property stocks. With the risks and uncertainties I'm much more comfortable sitting on the sidelines until this plays out further.

[bull....]

"As mortgage rates rise, we expect to see a substantial slowing in house price growth over the coming months, turning to modest price declines by the second half of 2022.

https://www.interest.co.nz/business/113100/westpac-economists-say-two-year-fixed-mortgage-rates-are-already-closer-their-peak

if there prediction proves correct and combined with soaring wages and building costs it be worst case senario for property developers

[sb9]

I sold all long term holdings in the retirement sector and REITs when yields were spiking and it became apparent that inflation wasn't quite so 'transitory'. My opinion is that by far the largest influence of property prices is the cost and availability of credit. We have both of these things going against property at an extremely rapid pace. A 20%+ correction in property prices in the next 12-24 months is a very credible scenario, however it'll come down to what happens with inflation. Best case scenario for property is higher rates cause recession, inflation eases and rates are lowered again. The worst case is that we enter recession and inflation is persisting.

I believe fund managers are reweighting their portfolios to lower exposure to property stocks. With the risks and uncertainties I'm much more comfortable sitting on the sidelines until this plays out further.

Very pertinent reasoning, property can't keep going up forever.

[dobby41]

if there prediction proves correct and combined with soaring wages and building costs it be worst case senario for property developers[/FONT][/COLOR]

That's a big IF.

[bull....]

That's a big IF.

all senario's are basically if's. but something to be aware off as we go into later next yr

[Beagle]

I sold all long term holdings in the retirement sector and REITs when yields were spiking and it became apparent that inflation wasn't quite so 'transitory'. My opinion is that by far the largest influence of property prices is the cost and availability of credit. We have both of these things going against property at an extremely rapid pace. A 20%+ correction in property prices in the next 12-24 months is a very credible scenario, however it'll come down to what happens with inflation. Best case scenario for property is higher rates cause recession, inflation eases and rates are lowered again. The worst case is that we enter recession and inflation is persisting.

I believe fund managers are reweighting their portfolios to lower exposure to property stocks. With the risks and uncertainties I'm much more comfortable sitting on the sidelines until this plays out further.

Doing what with your cash while it loses its value at ~ 5% per annum ?
According to the CEO of PIE funds bonds had their worst month in 27 years in October so what's the point of selling now when its quite possible a lot of the impact is already incorporated into some share prices ?

[JohnnyTheHorse]

Doing what with your cash while it loses its value at ~ 5% per annum ?
According to the CEO of PIE funds bonds had their worst month in 27 years in October so what's the point of selling now when its quite possible a lot of the impact is already incorporated into some share prices ?

Converted a small portion into short exposure on the sector (SUM), retail (but on a tight leash as clouds on the horizon) and metals. Sitting on more cash right now than I'd like, however I don't see many compelling long term opportunities that present good risk/reward (that I already don't have a position in at an appropriate portfolio weighting). NZX50 gross index still giving worse return than the bank so far this year.

Short term there are heaps of great trade opportunities right now overseas, so long term capital being used as trading capital too.

[Maverick]

I believe fund managers are reweighting their portfolios to lower exposure to property stocks. With the risks and uncertainties I'm much more comfortable sitting on the sidelines until this plays out further.
Excellent post Johnny H and very perceptive. The property drivers are well discussed and it is well known they are now reversing into head winds. I think the general populace, in their hearts, now expect property to at best stabilized or far worse- as you say down 20%.

It is obvious its the big boys doing the OCA selling (reweighting as you suggest) as most of the trades continue off market as of the last month. Compare ARG (commercial REIT) share price pattern with OCA and its hard to tell the difference. Its seems clear when there's a lull in the selling the SP wants to bounce but who knows how long this rebalancing will continue. I'm starting to doubt that a reasonable 1HY result soon will be enough to stop this trend.

As far as inflation goes, in moderation it normally would suggest a healthy economy and in reality it shouldn't be feared like it is. It is the work of politicians and reserve banks that have got the public panicked about it. Its understandable for their motive to create fear ..."even though prices are rising ,don't ask for a pay rise.".

So with regard to OCA and a possible ( IMO probable ) house price fall, the "Montgomerie-(cant remember other name) survey " suggests RV pricing has loads of headroom of price rises yet to wash through. That would mean an across the board drop in NZ HPI of circa 15% magnitude will not effect current profitability.

Back onto inflation, NEWLY built housing or apartments surely have got to be a good inflation hedge and OCA have lots of it. People always consider housing (HPI) as one animal but there are many subsets . The new cost of building will not come down so while general HPI may fall , a newly built house`s price shouldn't. Second hand houses- yes , new houses ( that only sell for a little more than cost to build) -no.
Look out landlords of older properties that's were the falls will happen IMO.

OCA also have a strong care emphasis which operates outside of HPI action and operate mostly high rise apartments which sit outside the reach of strong market influence of the mum and dad spec builds/ investors. High rises haven't enjoyed the HPI price gains of late and will not suffer the general HPI retrenchment ,if any.


So with all that being said....with my belief in OCAs model, viewing NEW housing/apartments positively as an inflation hedge , HPI relevance to OCAs offerings and my time frame of investment- I wont be selling any. I totally get why many people would want to exit now on property fears and get out at the top of the property cycle. The NZ mental connection between RV operators being solely a REIT seems unbreakable ( although I'm saying this is incorrect).

However , despite all the logic in the world , while managed funds keep up their relentless selling .." whether the elephants make love or war , the mice get trampled."

[bull....]

big sell at the close is funds alright

[Beagle]

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vn1-YU8n_MU

How I feel. I feel like the poor adult Beagle tied up...tied to something that in some ways holds a lot of future promise but in the meantime is bloody annoying.

[jimdog31]

I continue to be surprised daily at the raw emotions that go up and down with ST posters on this thread!

[Beagle]

I continue to be surprised daily at the raw emotions that go up and down with ST posters on this thread!

With Sindy's home detention sentence I feel like I've been chained up to that Beagle puppy for the last 13 weeks ! Any surprise I'm going loopy lol

I used to think home detention for criminals was a soft form of punishment...WOW how wrong was I !!

[bottomfeeder]

Don't think that it's a sell off due to an unexpected event. Firstly under continuous disclosure requirements, the market would have to be notified and also, could stink of insider trading. Either way shareholders would be in revolt. I think its to do with a reweighting in the industry classification. Fund managers don't make quick decisions. And percentage holdings in various industries are hard to change in a hurry. Arvida inflows must come from other industry investments and Oceania is a good one to sell down because it also shows a good profit for their fund.
Arrgh, may have it wrong ARV down today as well. Looks like a market selldown, pending higher interest rates.

[mike2020]

[QUOTE=Maverick;923651]Excellent post Johnny H and very perceptive. The property drivers are well discussed and it is well known they are now reversing into head winds. I think the general populace, in their hearts, now expect property to at best stabilized or far worse- as you say down 20%.

I have been looking at new builds off the plans in Canterbury and although it is hard to compare apples with apples, as the offerings have changed a little, I have seen dramatic rises in asking prices in the last 3 months. They are a long way off being started as well. The pace of change is what surprises me most and the absence of resistance to it which used to be evident locally. I could imagine a 10 or 15% drop landing somewhere most posters here would be comfortable with, just not the traders.

[winner69]

here`s a weird question Winner.
OCA`s 1HY report comes out Monday morning 29th. It has always been Thursday or Friday.
So with your corporate life time of acquired knowledge (coupled with your learned cynicism ) can we read anything into this unusual day for the announcement. I also note its out a week later than usual.

Perhaps another purchase? or just a result so good they want to give the market a full week of buying opportunity?
(a simple yes to either question will be just fine;))

First time they’ve reported in November so can’t read much into why a Monday instead of normal Thursday or Friday

Possibly it’s a calendar issue …like the timing of board meetings to give the sign off and internal briefings to the ‘consistent’ messaging they want out there

And YES to the suggestion of wanting to give the market a full week to buy up big. Hint - punters need to buy prior to the announcement to get full rewards

[bull....]

interesting arv rights issue under subscribed. waning interest in sector ?

[alokdhir]

OCA in trouble today ...Whale needs breathe ...Danger signs for the short term ...Looks like Bull will get his price :D

[Rawz]

SP capitulation coming?

[bull....]

OCA in trouble today ...Whale needs breathe ...Danger signs for the short term ...Looks like Bull will get his price :D

the arv shortfall i think is a huge vote of no confidence in the sector WOw i mean if it was the hot sector investors would have massively oversubscribed it and it was at a good discount too wow STILL DIGESTING THE SHOCK OF IT

[Beagle]

the arv shortfall i think is a huge vote of no confidence in the sector WOw i mean if it was the hot sector investors would have massively oversubscribed it and it was at a good discount too wow STILL DIGESTING THE SHOCK OF IT

http://nzx-prod-s7fsd7f98s.s3-website-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/attachments/ARV/381049/357052.pdf
Excerpt from 15 October announcement:-

Under the terms of the Offer, you are not an Eligible Shareholder. Accordingly, you will not be offered any
shares or interests under the Offer and cannot subscribe for shares under the Offer and you will not be sent a
copy of the Offer Document.
This letter’s purpose is to inform you about the Offer. It is neither an offer to issue shares to you, nor an
invitation for you to apply for shares. You are not required to do anything in response to this letter. However,
you may still receive some benefit from the Offer, as described below.
Shares attributable to those shareholders who are not Eligible Shareholders (Ineligible Shareholders) will be
issued to a nominee appointed by the Company which will arrange to sell those shares on the behalf of Ineligible
Shareholders through a Shortfall Bookbuild on 10 November 2021.
Any Premium (as that term is defined in the Offer Document) achieved above the Issue Price for New Shares in
the Shortfall Bookbuild will be paid (with no brokerage costs deducted) on a pro rata basis to those Shareholders
who do not take up their Entitlements or who are Ineligible Shareholders.
Payment of any Premium achieved in the Shortfall Bookbuild is expected to be made on 22 November 2021.
However, there is no guarantee that any such Premium will be achieved.
While this Offer is not open to you, I would like to thank you for your continuing support as a shareholder

I made this section a bit bigger so "rocket scientists" like you can understand it :p Just to be clear Bull, because it would seem you need the help, this was all part of a plan already put in place nearly a month ago so overseas shareholders could get fair value for their rights. Do you understand it now :p

[couta1]

the arv shortfall i think is a huge vote of no confidence in the sector WOw i mean if it was the hot sector investors would have massively oversubscribed it and it was at a good discount too wow STILL DIGESTING THE SHOCK OF IT Are you a bot?

[bull....]

http://nzx-prod-s7fsd7f98s.s3-website-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/attachments/ARV/381049/357052.pdf
Excerpt from 15 October announcement:-


I made this section a bit bigger so "rocket scientists" like you can understand it :p

lol do you really think oversea's investors are a large chunk of the register. they even allowed new people to buy shares and participate in the rights issue as well

[bull....]

read the announcement bull was right

https://www.nzx.com/announcements/382559

big shortfall

[Beagle]

lol do you really think oversea's investors are a large chunk of the register. they even allowed new people to buy shares and participate in the rights issue as well

They said exactly that in the NZX announcement

• the small number of shareholders in those overseas jurisdictions to whom offers would otherwise be
made;
• the likelihood of those shareholders electing to participate in the Offer if offered to them; and
• the costs of complying with overseas legal requirements.

They legally had to have a shortfall bookbuild so the small number of overseas shareholders could get value. They called it a "shortfall bookbuild" back on 15 October.
Are you having trouble with the English language today :p
Yes people like me could apply for the issue under the original placement $1.96, the rights issue $1.85 and bid to be part of the bookbuild process. I did all three things. Its not that hard to understand and neither is your motive here. Everyone knows you're just trying to talk the market down, I am simply setting the record straight so your disinformation program is shown up for the deliberate attempt to manipulate the market down that it is.

[bull....]

its a 25% shortfall ..... huge

[jimdog31]

If we all hit “ignore” on the count of 3, he’ll be posting like a ghost. nothing worse than being invisible…. whose keen?

[bull....]

If we all hit “ignore” on the count of 3, he’ll be posting like a ghost. nothing worse than being invisible…. whose keen?

lol still to be read by the many thousands

[jimdog31]

lol still to be read by the many thousands

Yeh but theyll soon realise your talking to yourself…. only crazy people talk to themselves!

[bull....]

Yeh but theyll soon realise your talking to yourself…. only crazy people talk to themselves!

your missing the point we are talking to the world not just people on here

[Beagle]

Please give it a rest bull. You're trying to make something out of nothing.

[couta1]

your missing the point we are talking to the world not just people on here Are you a virus?

[Greekwatchdog]

Different Day same Bull, just full of it as per usual..

[alokdhir]

Looks like one of us put all his holding on sale @ 1.35 ...single order of 240,000 shares ....Hopefully its not Mr B throwing in the towel .

TBF he warned us that he loosing patience ...:p

[Beagle]

Different Day same Bull, just full of it as per usual..
Yes !

Looks like one of us put all his holding on sale @ 1.35 ...single order of 240,000 shares ....Hopefully its not Mr B throwing in the towel .
TBF he warned us that he loosing patience ...:p
Not me. I remembered my meds today lol

Are you a virus?
Definitely a type of virus at times lol

[ronaldson]

For all the reasons Beagle gave, plus the fact that not all eligible holders have ready cash, it was inevitable there would be a shortfall. Like Beagle I took part in the placement at $1.96 ( becoming an initial holder ) and the immediately subsequent issue to entitled shareholders at $1.85. Have now bid ( like Beagle ) for more in the shortfall via Jarden Direct. Hoping for an issue price at the lower end of the bookbuild range but wont shed tears if it is higher. The " dust " around these transactions and the acquisitions funded by the proceeds will settle over the next couple of weeks and we can all reassess!.

[winner69]

Good day for OCA share price today

Didn't go down ... unlike its peers SUM down 1.4% and RYM down 2.2%

Things looking brighter on the OCA front

[dreamcatcher]

Every man and his dog is loaded to the gills here waiting for the pump, even a small disappoint its pph-2

Disc: hold avg 71c not buying....... too much uncertainty

[Rawz]

Every man and his dog is loaded to the gills here waiting for the pump, even a small disappoint its pph-2

Disc: hold avg 71c not buying....... too much uncertainty

I bought the dip. But then it kept dipping. Now 10% of my portfolio and yes a lot of uncertainty.

But only weak hands would sell now..

A 4 bedroom house sold down the road from me today for $2m. It’s really only worth $1.8m. The economists have never got the property market right, been reading about a correction for various reasons for two decades. They make a good headline and sell papers. But it never comes true.

Increased interest rates might stabilize housing prices for a few years which would be a good thing, but a big correction is rubbish. As if the RBNZ would increase them so much as to crash the economy.

There is a massive floor of FHBs sitting in the wings. And once covid is gone and immigration cranks up we will be back to more housing shortages.

Can’t see PPH2 happening here.. totally different kettle of fish.

[Beagle]

Yeap, economists have predicted 18 of the last 2 recessions. I'm not expecting much for the half year report but the second half should be very good.
I will play possum stuck in the headlights.

[davflaws]

Finally exited ATM and put almost all of the proceeds into OCA. Massively overweight but eventually couldnt resist at 134.

[couta1]

Finally exited ATM and put almost all of the proceeds into OCA. Massively overweight but eventually couldnt resist at 134. Good long term choice, ATM is currently on a road to nowhere, it's a one trick pony in need of some serious grooming and is far more risky than OCA.

[Biscuit]

.......I will play possum stuck in the headlights.


Ahhhh... you do know what happens to 'possums caught in the headlights?

[Beagle]

Boom !! National median house price up 12.6% on last month !!
https://www.reinz.co.nz/Media/Default/Statistic%20Documents/2021/Residential/October/REINZ%20Monthly%20Property%20Report%20-%20October%202021.pdf

[Greekwatchdog]

]Boom !! National median house price up 12.6% on last month !!
https://www.reinz.co.nz/Media/Default/Statistic%20Documents/2021/Residential/October/REINZ%20Monthly%20Property%20Report%20-%20October%202021.pdf[/QUOTE]

It will be interesting to see how they report property Price increase in their Portfolio on 29/11 not withstanding that this if prices continue will be part of Full Year. I can't see how this effects the sector given they use medium house price.

[winner69]

Boom !! National median house price up 12.6% on last month !!
https://www.reinz.co.nz/Media/Default/Statistic%20Documents/2021/Residential/October/REINZ%20Monthly%20Property%20Report%20-%20October%202021.pdf

Onee hopes that OCA are getting good sale prices these days .... but I have my doubts

[allfromacell]

Even the HPI is up 3.3%! OCA price is still down even if volumes are low.

The US 10 year bond spiked aggressively last night on their huge inflation numbers and the NZ bond yeilds are also up strongly today. I think this is what the market worries about the most.

Not to mention that Evergrande just defaulted on bonds which is likely to create more shockwaves.

[winner69]

Arvida's capital raise has left OCA as the minnow of the sector (of the main four anyway). Market cap quite a lot less than Arvida's now

C'mon guys ......get in behind the small guy to boost its market presence. Little battlers need a lot of help but Oceania can do it.

Always hard for the minnow of a sector to get rerated.

[bull....]

nz 10y at new high
rising rates are not good for property developers as it weighs on margins. thats why the whole sector is down for the mth

[allfromacell]

Arvida's capital raise has left OCA as the minnow of the sector (of the main four anyway). Market cap quite a lot less than Arvida's now

C'mon guys ......get in behind the small guy to boost its market presence. Little battlers need a lot of help but Oceania can do it.

Always hard for the minnow of a sector to get rerated.

I've got a 50+ year time horizon with this one, happy to let the DRP do its thing and the SP remain out of favor for a decade or two.

There aren't many stocks that I can say with honesty that I don't care about the SP falling, but this is definitely one of them due to it being backed by solid assets and extremely favorable longterm tailwinds.

Edit: looks like Evergrande made a last minute interest payment.

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2021-11-10/evergrande-said-to-pay-delayed-interest-on-at-least-two-bonds?srnd=premium-asia

[sampson]

Onee hopes that OCA are getting good sale prices these days .... but I have my doubts

NZ median up 12.6% compared to September.
NZ ex AKL median up 4.6 % compared to September.
AKL median up 8.9% compared to September.

Interesting stuff eh.

And that's ignoring seasonal adjustments too. Always interesting to see which of the numbers the various news media choose to report on.

[Bjauck]

NZ median up 12.6% compared to September.
NZ ex AKL median up 4.6 % compared to September.
AKL median up 8.9% compared to September.

Interesting stuff eh.

And that's ignoring seasonal adjustments too. Always interesting to see which of the numbers the various news media choose to report on. I don't understand these median figures. It looks like the increase in the NZ median figure should lie somewhere between 4.6% and 8.9%

[winner69]

I don't understand these median figures. It looks like the increase in the NZ median figure should lie somewhere between 4.6% and 8.9%

Median isn’t the average ….it’s the (median’ point where 50% is over and 50% under.

The 12.6% national median probably due to much higher sales values in Auckland than other parts of the country.

So when you have medians of 4.6% and 8.9% intuitively you think the combined number be in between. You not only one puzzled bjauck.

A better measure i# the HPI which factors in a lot of other things ……that was up 3.3% in October v September - Auckland +4.4% and rest NZ +2.5% ….now that makes sense eh

[Muse]

Median isn’t the average ….it’s the (median’ point where 50% is over and 50% under.

The 12.6% national median probably due to much higher sales values in Auckland than other parts of the country.

So when you have medians of 4.6% and 8.9% intuitively you think the combined number be in between. You not only one puzzled bjauck.

A better measure i# the HPI which factors in a lot of other things ……that was up 3.3% in October v September - Auckland +4.4% and rest NZ +2.5% ….now that makes sense eh

Aye the HPI is the only house value stat worth talking about. ReINZ dont so themselves any favours by releasing 2 or 3 sets of housing figures at the same time. The media focuses on median because the index goes over their heads. Then they report on the QV, then barfoots. So much noise for one month when only the HPI matters.

But one thing is true - they are all performing better than OCA sale prices!

[winner69]

Aye the HPI is the only house value stat worth talking about. ReINZ dont so themselves any favours by releasing 2 or 3 sets of housing figures at the same time. The media focuses on median because the index goes over their heads. Then they report on the QV, then barfoots. So much noise for one month when only the HPI matters.

But one thing is true - they are all performing better than OCA sale prices!

HPI up 30% last 12 months ….Oceania average sale price nowhere near this ….that’s a bugger

[Rawz]

HPI up 30% last 12 months ….Oceania average sale price nowhere near this ….that’s a bugger

Bit of a hedge as well against falling house prices. If they havnt increased them in line with the market they will meet the market on the way down (if that even happens).

Gee OCA looking cheap actually with this big hedge in place. not like those other RV operators that foolishly raised their prices in line with the market. Sheesh what where they thinking??

[sampson]

HPI up 30% last 12 months ….Oceania average sale price nowhere near this ….that’s a bugger

Has been a big shift in the location of OCA sales over the last few years though, so we need an OCAPI. I nominate Maverick :D

[Bjauck]

Median isn’t the average ….it’s the (median’ point where 50% is over and 50% under.

The 12.6% national median probably due to much higher sales values in Auckland than other parts of the country.

So when you have medians of 4.6% and 8.9% intuitively you think the combined number be in between. You not only one puzzled bjauck.

A better measure i# the HPI which factors in a lot of other things ……that was up 3.3% in October v September - Auckland +4.4% and rest NZ +2.5% ….now that makes sense eh

I imagine it must be due to comparatively much higher sales volume in Auckland, compared to rNZ, during the latest period too. With the NZ median sale for the latest period then settling closer to Auckland's higher prices.

[850man]

Bit of a hedge as well against falling house prices. If they havnt increased them in line with the market they will meet the market on the way down (if that even happens).

Gee OCA looking cheap actually with this big hedge in place. not like those other RV operators that foolishly raised their prices in line with the market. Sheesh what where they thinking??

OCA's pricing has been below it's competitors for some time without justification. 2 fold impact: Revenue reduction, Brand impact (seen as lower quality). I hope the new crew on the bridge are addressing this.

[bull....]

maybe there future market is state tenants ?

[couta1]

I cant see any better investment on the NZX than this one using a 5 yr time frame and I've been looking seriously hard, its not my biggest holding which is PAZ but thats not listed on the main board.

[artemis]

maybe there future market is state tenants ?

Maybe. When Tracey Martin was Minister for Seniors in the 2017 government she floated the idea of retirement villages being required to include affordable units (whatever that means) so that a wider sector of society has access to village amenities. The idea disappeared without trace, strange that. I expect the peals of laughter encouraged her to zip the lip.

[winner69]

Not long before year result

I'm looking to see whether they have managed to maintain gaining $100k plus on resales and the gain on new units ($) is starting to improve after declining over the last 4 reporting periods. No point at trying to assess how segments (Care and Villages) might be doing as essentially Underlying Earnings is the net gain on selling things

If not a YES to both then the result won't be that good

But then why worry just at the Comprehensive Income number and then see how much the March Book Value of $835 has increased by.

[bottomfeeder]

OCA's pricing has been below it's competitors for some time without justification. 2 fold impact: Revenue reduction, Brand impact (seen as lower quality). I hope the new crew on the bridge are addressing this.

Goes to show, there is a lot of upside in OCA yet.

[Joh13]

I thought we would've heard something about an acquisition by now, maybe we'll hear something on the 29th.

[dompf]

I thought we would've heard something about an acquisition by now, maybe we'll hear something on the 29th.

its tiring if they haven’t and they think they are undervalued they should do a buy back.

very upsetting watching this share with real estate cranking to a 12m high with this at a 12m low, like seriously what are they doing. I hope there’s better news in their convoluted financials and as I said previously 6m is way too long for updates to shareholders.

[BlackPeter]

its tiring if they haven’t and they think they are undervalued they should do a buy back.

very upsetting watching this share with real estate cranking to a 12m high with this at a 12m low, like seriously what are they doing. I hope there’s better news in their convoluted financials and as I said previously 6m is way too long for updates to shareholders.

As a long term shareholder I really hope management have better things to do than managing the short term jitter of the share price with buybacks or whatever. Really, who cares.

Relevant is only the real underlying value which this company will generate over decades. Can't complain so far - SP from 80 cents to $1.40 roundabout in a bit more than 4 years, this would be a CAGR of 15% plus add the dividend, say nearly 20% added shareholder value per year.

Obviously - anybody who likes a bit of a gamble would have bought last year around 50 cents per share or below, and would have earned since than more than 100% p.a.

What exactly are you complaining about - 100% pa not enough return?

[Ggcc]

As a long term shareholder I really hope management have better things to do than managing the short term jitter of the share price with buybacks or whatever. Really, who cares.

Relevant is only the real underlying value which this company will generate over decades. Can't complain so far - SP from 80 cents to $1.40 roundabout in a bit more than 4 years, this would be a CAGR of 15% plus add the dividend, say nearly 20% added shareholder value per year.

Obviously - anybody who likes a bit of a gamble would have bought last year around 50 cents per share or below, and would have earned since than more than 100% p.a.

What exactly are you complaining about - 100% pa not enough return?

Totally agree too many people wanting 50% gains per annum regardless of OCA seeming undervalued. It almost seems people now need unrealistic returns instantly or else they feel let down. If it happens be happy if not still be happy you are up. Just wait another 4 years you will be laughing

[dompf]

As a long term shareholder I really hope management have better things to do than managing the short term jitter of the share price with buybacks or whatever. Really, who cares.

Relevant is only the real underlying value which this company will generate over decades. Can't complain so far - SP from 80 cents to $1.40 roundabout in a bit more than 4 years, this would be a CAGR of 15% plus add the dividend, say nearly 20% added shareholder value per year.

Obviously - anybody who likes a bit of a gamble would have bought last year around 50 cents per share or below, and would have earned since than more than 100% p.a.

What exactly are you complaining about - 100% pa not enough return?

Not relevant - just frustrated lol :(

[Beagle]

Fair call on 6 months between operational updates being a long time between drinks for this sector. Arvida has its "investor news" which amounts to a quarterly progress update and SUM have their quarterly sales updates which amount to the same thing. RYM may have something too, anyone know ?

[winner69]

Fair call on 6 months between operational updates being a long time between drinks for this sector. Arvida has its "investor news" which amounts to a quarterly progress update and SUM have their quarterly sales updates which amount to the same thing. RYM may have something too, anyone know ?

Oceania has never struck me as being ‘shareholder friendly’

Seem to be one of those companies that treat shareholders as being a bloody annoyance ……even though they sometimes have to hold their hand out and plead for cash.

[winner69]

I thought we would've heard something about an acquisition by now, maybe we'll hear something on the 29th.

Were you expecting them to make an acquisition?

[Joh13]

Were you expecting them to make an acquisition?

The proposed bond issue will:

- Help facilitate future growth, including funding the current pipeline and potential acquisition of new development sites (brownfield and/or greenfield).

Reading this I thought yes they had something potentially lined up already.

This is one of the reasons for the bond issuance, but maybe it was issued mainly to reduce bank debt as they state in the other reasons why they issued the bond.

[Beagle]

Oceania has never struck me as being ‘shareholder friendly’

Seem to be one of those companies that treat shareholders as being a bloody annoyance ……even though they sometimes have to hold their hand out and plead for cash.

The one that was friendly to me got poached by MET :(

[couta1]

Yikes look at that MACD indicator, where is da love.:scared:

[Waltzing]

Where is the Virus is the question.. They will need to be very careful in these facilities over the summer.

1.30 got to be some value there.

[Baa_Baa]

Yikes look at that MACD indicator, where is da love.:scared:

Retirement village sector doesn't like Covid, on or about the end of August, OCA, RYM, SUM all came off peaks and have trended down since. MACD's on all of them are very similar, as is RSI oversold.

That's my take on it, too much of a co-incidence that they all turn over around the same day and have continued down.

[Vee Vee]

Not so sure it's covid check the ARG chart. More property related I reckon. Personally happier to hold ARG and OCA assets than cash in the long term.
I don't think we will see anything amazing on the 29th. Just look at past results.
OCA is the cheapest in sector for a reason.

[bull....]

its rates sensitive , but only a fool would discount COVID when jacinda unleashes auckland on NZ

[Baa_Baa]

its rates sensitive , but only a fool would discount COVID when jacinda unleashes auckland on NZ

Might be rates sensitive but that doesn't line up, OCA, RYM, SUM all peaked at end August/early Sept but the 18th August OCR announce was no-change, and the +0.25 change in OCR didn't occur until 6th October. Property industry values have been going crazy upwards the whole time.

To be fair also, it might not be entirely the Covid thing either as NZ was already in Level 4 since mid-August and daily case numbers had peaked and were falling by end-Aug/early Sept. Level 3 didn't kick in until about 22nd Sep and after only a week of falling case numbers, it's been all upwards since.

So, what happened at the end of August that they all turned over simultaneously. I must've missed something, or forgotten.

[winner69]

Whatever the reasons its good to know that OCA isn't the only dog stock in the sector at the moment ...phew

[Waltzing]

if it doesnt hold 1.25-130 its pretty much all the way down to 1.10.

[Muse]

Might be rates sensitive but that doesn't line up, OCA, RYM, SUM all peaked at end August/early Sept but the 18th August OCR announce was no-change, and the +0.25 change in OCR didn't occur until 6th October. Property industry values have been going crazy upwards the whole time.

To be fair also, it might not be entirely the Covid thing either as NZ was already in Level 4 since mid-August and daily case numbers had peaked and were falling by end-Aug/early Sept. Level 3 didn't kick in until about 22nd Sep and after only a week of falling case numbers, it's been all upwards since.

So, what happened at the end of August that they all turned over simultaneously. I must've missed something, or forgotten.

Forget about the OCR & look to 5 year swaps. In late august when SUM was at a peak the 5 year swap rate was 1.54% - now its 2.7%! Its going to be a lot higher in a years time. You are right about the run up in prices to August (and ongoing), but as the market observed rising inflation & swap costs its perception of future house price increases dimmed significantly, and placed less emphasis on the property prices that have just been or will be over the next 3-6 months. Am sure we will continue to see some rises as for the next half year as jaffas get their post lockdown sugar rush in.

See the latest thread re RYM/SUM SP’s for my 'other' two cents on whats impacting share prices in the industry

[bull....]

Might be rates sensitive but that doesn't line up, OCA, RYM, SUM all peaked at end August/early Sept but the 18th August OCR announce was no-change, and the +0.25 change in OCR didn't occur until 6th October. Property industry values have been going crazy upwards the whole time.

To be fair also, it might not be entirely the Covid thing either as NZ was already in Level 4 since mid-August and daily case numbers had peaked and were falling by end-Aug/early Sept. Level 3 didn't kick in until about 22nd Sep and after only a week of falling case numbers, it's been all upwards since.

So, what happened at the end of August that they all turned over simultaneously. I must've missed something, or forgotten.

i dont disagree with you i even mentioned the link to cases in nz further back in the thread in that there was a correllation to the sector. hence why i say wait till auckland is unleashed on nz next yr

[dreamcatcher]

You decide if there's tailwinds or looming headwinds and remembered our accountant of 45yr's advice "don't renew your bonds boys as finance companies in trouble" well it took 18 months to filter through then one day picked up Herald headline read 6 finance companies in trouble within a month 18 the rest we know. We recovered all our funds.

I posted this 19/10 "Maybe things are not as rosy as everyone expected.

Interest rates on the rise
house prices struggling
inflation rising
covid hanging around
wage pressure building
Tradies impossible to find
govt's endless lockdowns"

Disc: hold add @$1.00

[allfromacell]

There is no actual evidence to suggest house prices are struggling yet.

I get that interest rates will add serviceability issues but there is still a shortage and the cost to build is so incredibly high not to mention cash is trash so it's hard to see the nominal value of real estate falling that much.

I think the sector deserves some negative sentiment for all the issues outlined but it's well priced in now, houses will not give back much more than 6-8 months worth of rises if any considering cash is worthless.

I remain short cash, long solid assets. The market will correct back up when the sky doesn't fall and there is still billions of printed dollars floating about.

[dreamcatcher]

Absolutely correct still strong but shrinking especially once interest rates kick in......... and that worries me.

House price growth on the downward slide - Good Returns (https://www.goodreturns.co.nz/article/976519519/house-price-growth-on-the-downward-slide.html)

[peat]

I remain short cash.

how does one short cash? Does that just mean you are leveraged into your assets with debt?

[peat]

See my post on ARV thread

FB valuing IFT’s retirement assets at 1.25x BV

[bull....]

stockland group in aus wants to reduce there retirement assets they just announced .... go figure thought it was a booming sector

[winner69]

See my post on ARV thread

FB valuing IFT’s retirement assets at 1.25x BV

IFT finally getting rid of Retire Aust ..... been talking about it for years

Maybe worked out the furure isn't as bright as the past

[jimdog31]

IFT finally getting rid of Retire Aust ..... been talking about it for years

Maybe worked out the furure isn't as bright as the past

One man’s junk….

[couta1]

All Suppliers and Contractors visiting Oceania sites must now be fully vaccinated, you have to give your details/dates of both jabs and type of vaccine via a QR code which they provide.

[777]

All Suppliers and Contractors visiting Oceania sites must now be fully vaccinated, you have to give your details/dates of both jabs and type of vaccine.

All available on the NZCovid TrackerApp if you have created a MyCovid Record.

[allfromacell]

how does one short cash? Does that just mean you are leveraged into your assets with debt?

Correct, especially inflation hedged assets like crypto.

[HITMAN]

I was correct when I brought at $1.43 and said it'll drop now, not helped by ARV announcing a capital raise the next day. How low is this going to go, Not stressed as in it for a while I hope, but wondering where my buy point might be to average down. Asset valuation at $1.20 per share can't be to far to the bottom, but a couple of Covid deaths can change a lot these days.

[RTM]

I was correct when I brought at $1.43 and said it'll drop now, not helped by ARV announcing a capital raise the next day. How low is this going to go, Not stressed as in it for a while I hope, but wondering where my buy point might be to average down. Asset valuation at $1.20 per share can't be to far to the bottom, but a couple of Covid deaths can change a lot these days.

For what its worth my buys have been 99 102 119 & 75
And I have sold twice, never all..at 136 & 132. Now holding about 1/2 what I had.
Be patient.

[dabsman]

For what its worth my buys have been 99 102 119 & 75
And I have sold twice, never all..at 136 & 132. Now holding about 1/2 what I had.
Be patient.

$1.20 BV plus annual increase booked maybe 20% gives $1.44 and 1.25 times BV going from ForBarr gives $1.80...

The way this is trending we are closer to 80c than $1.80 haha/

Not worried as I bought a truck full at COVID discount last year but it is not motivating to watch the last couple of months share price performance

[Beagle]

First a joke to lighten the mood. How do you drive a Beagle crazy ? Put him in a large round kennel and tell him there's a huge bone in the corner.

Its time we had a refresh on the asset backing.
http://nzx-prod-s7fsd7f98s.s3-website-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/attachments/OCA/372535/346452.pdf
Page 23 NAV which includes NTA of $1.20 + 8 cents developments in progress was $1.28 as at 31 March 2021.
On top of that the NTA figure is watered down by CBRE when they do their valuation by the effect of discounting unsold units by about 25%.
Maverick has done some work on the effect of this and its about 8 cps. Seeing as we know units have been selling well from the other companies in this sector I think the 25% discount of unsold units is both inappropriate and too conservative so the real adjusted NTA as at 31 March is $1.28 + developments in progress making NAV (Net asset value) ~ $1.36 as at 31 March 2021.

The property market has been very strong since then and they have another 7.5 months of trading and developments progress since then
My contention is that the NAV at present is at least $1.40 per share.

Buying at $1.31 is buying at a decent discount to the assets of this company let alone their intellectual property and systems and they have been enjoying one of the best development margins in the industry. On top of that going forward they enjoy some of the lowest funding rates (raised $125m fixed for 7 years at just 2.3% last year and have another tranche of $100m locked in long term @ 3.3%).

I think this is getting seriously oversold.

[Antipodean]

NTA at $1.20 / share was last updated 21/05/2021. Have a look at any HPI update since then and decide for yourself if this is likely to remain the same at the HY announcement 29/11/2021, given the assets this business holds.


If we use that NTA though, the business is valued at ~$0.12 / share at a $1.32 share price. Not sure about you but my analysis is that this means it is undervalued. I would not take my word for it, but Mr. Tomlinson certainly must have had similar thoughts less than a month ago.

6 months seems like a long time between updates, so maybe the impatient market isn't valuing this highly. Isn't there a saying about impatient and patient market participants?

[Beagle]

NTA at $1.20 / share was last updated 21/05/2021. Have a look at any HPI update since then and decide for yourself if this is likely to remain the same at the HY announcement 29/11/2021, given the assets this business holds.


If we use that NTA though, the business is valued at ~$0.12 / share at a $1.32 share price. Not sure about you but my analysis is that this means it is undervalued. I would not take my word for it, but Mr. Tomlinson certainly must have had similar thoughts less than a month ago.

6 months seems like a long time between updates, so maybe the impatient market isn't valuing this highly. Isn't there a saying about impatient and patient market participants?

Yes for those that don't know “The stock market remains an exceptionally efficient mechanism for the transfer of wealth from the impatient to the patient.”. ~ Warren Buffett.

[couta1]

Yes for those that don't know “The stock market remains an exceptionally efficient mechanism for the transfer of wealth from the impatient to the patient.”. ~ Warren Buffett. You had better staple a copy of your blue highlights on your kennel wall, you may have to view it daily to help you keep the faith for quite some time.

[Waltzing]

yes oversold... until construction grinds to a halt.. Big builders like this one should continue to be at the front of the queue right?

Recently a professional sold a business in hamilton and bought property up in thames to develop...

All plans for building are on hold and they are now living in a holiday park.

[Beagle]

You had better staple a copy of your blue highlights on your kennel wall, you may have to view it daily to help you keep the faith for quite some time.

Yes, with a picture of a large bone right next to it.

[percy]

Yes for those that don't know “The stock market remains an exceptionally efficient mechanism for the transfer of wealth from the impatient to the patient.”. ~ Warren Buffett.

Classic.....................................
Lock up has done you some good.?......................lol.

[Joshuatree]

Lol, beware the dog without a bone, it starts digging holes:t_up:

[ADogsLife]

I find it interesting many refer to their avg price per share. Personally, this has little bearing on the long term position I take to investing.
Having acquired a few nice bundles sub $.60 and then again up to the mid $.90's, as a return each have enjoyed exceptional returns in a relatively short timeframe. Over the past few weeks I have again been acquiring at prices between $1.40 and today at $1.31, and I concur with the older dogs on here (Beagle and others) regards their NAV analysis. This gap between news announcements and throwing a few darts I think your numbers are slightly on the conservative end of the spectrum, which is probably a good place to be.

My point; averaging the price suggests I could double my holding at over $2.00 ps and still average below current price. Should I? absolutely not. As and when each purchase is made, I analyse if this the right price to be acquiring here now today, not what I bought at last month or last year. This to me is important as a long term investor versus a trader.

Sure, OCA is proving itself to be boring as bat****. I'm ok with that.

Cin cin ragazzi.

[HITMAN]

I find it interesting many refer to their avg price per share. Personally, this has little bearing on the long term position I take to investing.
Having acquired a few nice bundles sub $.60 and then again up to the mid $.90's, as a return each have enjoyed exceptional returns in a relatively short timeframe. Over the past few weeks I have again been acquiring at prices between $1.40 and today at $1.31, and I concur with the older dogs on here (Beagle and others) regards their NAV analysis. This gap between news announcements and throwing a few darts I think your numbers are slightly on the conservative end of the spectrum, which is probably a good place to be.

My point; averaging the price suggests I could double my holding at over $2.00 ps and still average below current price. Should I? absolutely not. As and when each purchase is made, I analyse if this the right price to be acquiring here now today, not what I bought at last month or last year. This to me is important as a long term investor versus a trader.

Sure, OCA is proving itself to be boring as bat****. I'm ok with that.

Cin cin ragazzi.

Boring is good, I look at SCT, a very boring share that quietly achieves…

Doubled my holding today… not sure if I play the same game as you, but buy price now averaged to 1.367. I have a bit more stashed away to double again if it goes south further.

I’m sure COVID is yet to play it’s game in this sector. Cruise ships are a floating Patri dish, like schools. maybe people will start to view through the same light. A few strong rest home breakouts will change the game. Lucky NZ has a really old population with lots of that boomer money to spend.

I think with growth in property values $1.32 is very fair if not cheap, but sellers seem to disagree. Good banter and info on this thread. Thanks to the contributors.

[Poolboy]

I pretend to clean the pool and listen to what the big dogs say as they spread themselves out on the sun loungers. I've got a spare 100k to spend and may... may... make a purchase before the 29th. I need to think more on this one. Heavens forbid; I may even buy some RYM instead.

[dreamcatcher]

Kiwibank just knocked the bottom rung from property ladder for first home buyers .....

[Monarch]

Like basically everyone here I think it is pretty good value right now, only issue is obviously some other parties disagree. Concerned that some have caught wind of very bad news and are abandoning ship. Overweight as it is, and underwater somehow, might just have to wait and see what the result brings.

[thegreatestben]

yes oversold... until construction grinds to a halt.. Big builders like this one should continue to be at the front of the queue right?

Recently a professional sold a business in hamilton and bought property up in thames to develop...

All plans for building are on hold and they are now living in a holiday park.

Mine is still coming along at a great speed, albeit in Wellington. I'm sure the big boys can make it work.

[Rawz]

This thread is becoming an echo chamber.

The reality is we are about to live with COVID and will soon see 600, 800, 1000 cases each day. Sooner or later a bunch of retirement villages will get severely impacted by cases and if one or two are OCA villages we will see SP drop even further, maybe 20%- 30%

Disc. Hold.

[fastbike]

Kiwibank just knocked the bottom rung from property ladder for first home buyers .....
The ladder had been incinerated well before the latest move. Don't blame kiwibank for refusing the add fuel to the property inferno.

[Panda-NZ-]

Maybe investors could be mandated to invest more offshore. Though I suppose that's commie china sort of thinking.

Most people should be investing in America given the welcome mat to foreign investors.

[bull....]

reached the 1.30 bottom of trading range .... will it hold or will it bust ?

[couta1]

reached the 1.30 bottom of trading range .... will it hold or will it bust ? Who knows, the whole NZX looks sick so its broad range sentiment across all the sectors.

[HITMAN]

reached the 1.30 bottom of trading range .... will it hold or will it bust ?

A few covid deaths will add spice to the mix... anything could happen, as long as assets are there it'll return to asset value one hopes. I'd me more worried about some of the other operators.

[Beagle]

Who knows, the whole NZX looks sick so its broad range sentiment across all the sectors.

I think you've hit the nail on the head. One real issue as I see it for the NZX is political risk. Overseas investors, (who own the majority of shares in NZX companies) are looking at the way this Government are running things with their woke policies. The recent noise about Govt interfering in private contractual law between tenant and landlord is massively corrosive to overseas investors confidence as is the tax changes with rental properties running roughshod over basic principles of interest deductibility that go back more than 100 years. Many of these properties are owned by overseas investors and they are thinking what's next ? The 3 waters theft of water assets is another thing setting off alarm bells. What other serious risks are obvious ? Reform of the retirement sector, reform of the electricity sector ? What else will they do in the name of social justice ? If this Govt can run roughshod over previously sacrosanct areas of tax and commercial law that go back to when Adam was a boy anything, literally anything is possible. This is a key question so I'll highlight it. If you were an overseas fund manager would you be reassessing the risks of investing in N.Z. assets ?

Our market has gone backwards this year, the worst performance in more than a decade and the worst I know of in the OECD... coincidence or the result of overseas investors losing confidence since Labour came to power ? You folks be the judge.

Another factor this year is of course the huge increase in 10 year Govt stock rates, up 200 basis points in a year and that in and of itself would normally translate to a reduction in the market PE of at least 2, so even with a bit of earnings growth we've seen PE contraction, arguably not enough taking into account the move in the 10 year Govt stock rate. I see little if any prospect of a year end rally for the NZX and the prospects for 2022 don't look especially encouraging to me. That's enough doom and gloom from me.

People, please feel free to ignore this post of you see things differently. Above are just two theories on why the market has performed very poorly this year. There's probably any number of other equally valid theories out there....but yeah, I have found the last two-three months a real grind.

[clips]

well said that man....

[artemis]

well said that man....

Agree, and would add a third theory. Panic leading to tweak, change and pray.

[Bjauck]

Agree, and would add a third theory. Panic leading to tweak, change and pray. Agree from me too. We have the inflationary and problems from Covid plus some unsettling developments from this government with respect to commandeering local body assets for political purposes amongst other issues.

[bull....]

I think you've hit the nail on the head. One real issue as I see it for the NZX is political risk. Overseas investors, (who own the majority of shares in NZX companies) are looking at the way this Government are running things with their woke policies. The recent noise about Govt interfering in private contractual law between tenant and landlord is massively corrosive to overseas investors confidence as is the tax changes with rental properties running roughshod over basic principles of interest deductibility that go back more than 100 years. Many of these properties are owned by overseas investors and they are thinking what's next ? The 3 waters theft of water assets is another thing setting off alarm bells. What other serious risks are obvious ? Reform of the retirement sector, reform of the electricity sector ? What else will they do in the name of social justice ? If this Govt can run roughshod over previously sacrosanct areas of tax and commercial law that go back to when Adam was a boy anything, literally anything is possible. This is a key question so I'll highlight it. If you were an overseas fund manager would you be reassessing the risks of investing in N.Z. assets ?

Our market has gone backwards this year, the worst performance in more than a decade and the worst I know of in the OECD... coincidence or the result of overseas investors losing confidence since Labour came to power ? You folks be the judge.

Another factor this year is of course the huge increase in 10 year Govt stock rates, up 200 basis points in a year and that in and of itself would normally translate to a reduction in the market PE of at least 2, so even with a bit of earnings growth we've seen PE contraction, arguably not enough taking into account the move in the 10 year Govt stock rate. I see little if any prospect of a year end rally for the NZX and the prospects for 2022 don't look especially encouraging to me. That's enough doom and gloom from me.

People, please feel free to ignore this post of you see things differently. Above are just two theories on why the market has performed very poorly this year. There's probably any number of other equally valid theories out there....but yeah, I have found the last two-three months a real grind.

yes good points about political decisions.
and yes nzx is bad at the moment .... what will happen when wall st starts going down :scared: nzx will go down even more :scared: nzx will never go up when wall st goes down
Im sure fund managers are watching 1.30 very closely they probably even discussed it offshore last night

[winner69]

Oceania still haven’t told me what the ebitda growth target to reach LTI

Meant to align these executives’ interests with the interests of Oceania’s shareholders.……do they know the interest of shareholders?

They tell us how rewards will dished out on TSR but no target for earnings


The Share Rights in each grant are divided between two performance hurdles;

– Share Rights will qualify for vesting on a straight-line basis, from 0%, where the total shareholder return (TSR) from the commencement date to the measurement date is equal to the 35th percentile of the NZX50 Group, to 100% where the TSR is equal to or greater than the 75th percentile of the NZX50 Group; and

– For the second performance hurdle, Share Rights will qualify for vesting if the Group’s annual growth in underlying earnings (before interest, tax, depreciation and amortisation) per share (UEPS) from the commencement date to the measurement date is equal to or greater than the target for growth in UEPS for that period.


Oh well ….shareholders good at dishing out dosh to management so why worry…and as long as OCA is not in the top third of dogs on the NZX it’s all fine

[couta1]

yes good points about political decisions.
and yes nzx is bad at the moment .... what will happen when wall st starts going down :scared: nzx will go down even more :scared: nzx will never go up when wall st goes down
Im sure fund managers are watching 1.30 very closely they probably even discussed it offshore last night Not necessarily, the NZX may be a real value play at that point, those going long on this one have nothing to be concerned about, it will still be a multi bagger given time so only those consumed by short term noise and listening to fearmongering need be overly concerned.

[850man]

The above, well woofed Beagle. A real mess IMHO and hard to see it going away any time soon. The inmates running the asylum here in NZ

[bull....]

Not necessarily, the NZX may be a real value play at that point, those going long on this one have nothing to be concerned about, it will still be a multi bagger given time so only those consumed by short term noise and listening to fearmongering need be overly concerned.

wishful thinking.
nzx will do what its master says. the master being wall st. never in all history has nzx bucked the trend other than short term and this will never change. when wall st heads down as it will at some stage all markets will go down full stop.

[alokdhir]

Not necessarily, the NZX may be a real value play at that point, those going long on this one have nothing to be concerned about, it will still be a multi bagger given time so only those consumed by short term noise and listening to fearmongering need be overly concerned.

I fully agree with u ...Mark my words ...next year this time NZX will be up almost 15 % from here . Time will tell ...but odds in favour of that happening

Rising rates and economy stumbling , confidence waning , economic downturn ....donot go together ...Very soon market will realise that rates are not rising the way they thought as no Govt can afford to let that happen ...IMHO they will remain low for longer then people think as covid is not letting economies boom

[BlackPeter]

I think you've hit the nail on the head. One real issue as I see it for the NZX is political risk. Overseas investors, (who own the majority of shares in NZX companies) are looking at the way this Government are running things with their woke policies. The recent noise about Govt interfering in private contractual law between tenant and landlord is massively corrosive to overseas investors confidence as is the tax changes with rental properties running roughshod over basic principles of interest deductibility that go back more than 100 years. Many of these properties are owned by overseas investors and they are thinking what's next ? The 3 waters theft of water assets is another thing setting off alarm bells. What other serious risks are obvious ? Reform of the retirement sector, reform of the electricity sector ? What else will they do in the name of social justice ? If this Govt can run roughshod over previously sacrosanct areas of tax and commercial law that go back to when Adam was a boy anything, literally anything is possible. This is a key question so I'll highlight it. If you were an overseas fund manager would you be reassessing the risks of investing in N.Z. assets ?

Our market has gone backwards this year, the worst performance in more than a decade and the worst I know of in the OECD... coincidence or the result of overseas investors losing confidence since Labour came to power ? You folks be the judge.

Another factor this year is of course the huge increase in 10 year Govt stock rates, up 200 basis points in a year and that in and of itself would normally translate to a reduction in the market PE of at least 2, so even with a bit of earnings growth we've seen PE contraction, arguably not enough taking into account the move in the 10 year Govt stock rate. I see little if any prospect of a year end rally for the NZX and the prospects for 2022 don't look especially encouraging to me. That's enough doom and gloom from me.

People, please feel free to ignore this post of you see things differently. Above are just two theories on why the market has performed very poorly this year. There's probably any number of other equally valid theories out there....but yeah, I have found the last two-three months a real grind.

You raise some valid issues. I do see at least one other biggie:

NZ used to have initially an advantage as Covid free country, which we now clearly lost. We kept however all the shackles and straightjackets our government put on us to protect us from Covid, in particular the ridiculous MIQ lottery. On top of that we screwed up our immigration system and even routine applications are not anymore worked at .... try to get your visa transferred into your new passport - good luck!

All other countries are opening up, their systems are working and businesses operating in them are able to travel, to visit their customers and maintain their products. NZ business is not able to do that, which means we will lose more and more often against international competitors who have the advantage of being able to travel and look after their customers (which could be ours).

[couta1]

wishful thinking.
nzx will do what its master says. the master being wall st. never in all history has nzx bucked the trend other than short term and this will never change. when wall st heads down as it will at some stage all markets will go down full stop. Its all relative, stocks flying in the clouds will be hit hardest, those already in the gutter less so, you needed worry bull, just come back with more negative stuff when we double our money in a few yrs and tell up why we aren't going to quadruple it. Lol

[Beagle]

The above, well woofed Beagle. A real mess IMHO and hard to see it going away any time soon. The inmates running the asylum here in NZ

Thanks and I agree about your latter point. If they get another term that's 5 more years of Nanaia Mahuta "style" ram it down our throats politics whether we like it or not, restorative justice for Maori and socialism in general and how would that affect our markets ? Perhaps for a clue we could look at the effects on the South African economy ?

I have always backed myself to beat the NZX and enjoyed our imputation system but the prospect of another 5 years of radical socialism is very sobering indeed and makes me feel like investing here is going to be like swimming hard against an outgoing tide. Very hard work.

In my opinion, one year into this new political environment serious investors should be reviewing what is the appropriate asset allocation in their portfolio to N.Z. stocks v international shares.

[bull....]

theres no buyers at 1.30 :scared: those off shore fund managers really did have a meeting last night

[RTM]

Our market has gone backwards this year, the worst performance in more than a decade and the worst I know of in the OECD... coincidence or the result of overseas investors losing confidence since Labour came to power ? You folks be the judge.



So far this year, my portfolio has not gone backwards, have got lucky with a few stocks that have rescued it I guess. However since mid August performance has been very flat. It is worth keeping in mind however, that the last few years...maybe up to 8 ?...there has been a steady rise. As long as one didn't bet on wild outliers...its been hard to go wrong. I think some consolidation can be expected, if a little painful for those who invested recently. It was never going to continue its path to the moon.

I am reminded of the people who complain about Tesla dropping recently....seeming to forget a few short months ago it was ~ US$700.

[couta1]

theres no buyers at 1.30 :scared: those off shore fund managers really did have a meeting last night Yeah and they talked a lot of bull****.

[Beagle]

I'm doing fine overall for calendar year 2021 through careful stock selection but portfolio performance and life in general in Auckland since the lockdown in mid August has been very challenging.

Thank you for your perspective. I doubled my money on OCA in 2020...I guess on the back of that 2021 was always going to be underwhelming.

[peat]

So I think its because we had our run up in the second half of 2020
we didnt have covid and they did at that time. (may be the reason)

13232
13233

which does kind of prove we can go up when US isnt. Tho I do tend to agree its a lot less likely.

[bull....]

RBNZ meeting coming up soon , rate hikes on the table .... crush the bond proxy nzx is my guess

[Ricky-bobby]

Does feel like things have plateaued… interestingly so have my Milford fund, hasn’t really moved for a good month. My own share portfolio has moved up due to SKL & TRA and now beating Milford! 90% of my own portfolio is NZX as it’s easier to keep on top of it. Just don’t have the time and patience to deal much in the others. Hopefully one day that will change!! Was thinking of buying a few more OCA if it hits $1.28… don’t think there’s any rush at the moment!

[winner69]

Maverick --- Oceania probably delayed announcment to Monday because they didn't want to clash with Ryman

And didn't want to put a pretty good Ryman result to shame :t_up:

Monday is going to be a good day ...even if bull reminds us 'margins have been crushed'

[Maverick]

Maverick --- Oceania probably delayed announcment to Monday because they didn't want to clash with Ryman

And didn't want to put a pretty good Ryman result to shame :t_up:

Monday is going to be a good day ...even if bull reminds us 'margins have been crushed'
haha Winner, but wasn't that RYM result was reassuring.
I liked how their Auckland /Melbourne sales were so robust despite lockdowns and are cautiously optimistic about a surge after lockdowns.

I calculate OCA had about 40 more new empty ILUs to sell at the beginning of 1hy22 than the usual approx 75 available
This has not been because they ain't selling , rather they had late deliveries on the prior HY and Eden deliveries early in this HY. Now RYM have proved sales were pretty good in Auckland despite the lockdown then this bodes very well for a "possible " surprise to the upside.

I was expecting a flat result of $25m but now with a possible uptick of maybe another 1-3 million from extra sales as above.

But whatever doesn't sell 1hy22 will sell this 2hy22 anyway so no biggie.

[Greekwatchdog]

OCA Share price is just above where the price was before our 1st lockdown. So market is telling us there has been no growth in 20 months in house prices. What are we missing?

[Beagle]

OCA Share price is just above where the price was before our 1st lockdown. So market is telling us there has been no growth in 20 months in house prices. What are we missing?

Answered already in post #10974

[justakiwi]

Maybe they're all lurkers at ST and you guys are scaring the begeezus out of them ;)


OCA Share price is just above where the price was before our 1st lockdown. So market is telling us there has been no growth in 20 months in house prices. What are we missing?

[Biscuit]

OCA Share price is just above where the price was before our 1st lockdown. So market is telling us there has been no growth in 20 months in house prices. What are we missing?

The whole market is fairly flat this year, reflecting the fact that shares are at least fully valued and we are moving into a higher interest rate environment. Its all good, would be much more of a worry if the market kept ramping up regardless - then you would have something to worry about.

[bull....]

if oca at 1.28 when all markets are at there highs i think theres more to worry about when they start falling

[Biscuit]

if oca at 1.28 when all markets are at there highs i think theres more to worry about when they start falling

Its only a problem if you have to sell. I hate high share prices. If you have to sell, sell now would always be my advice.

[jimdog31]

OCA Share price is just above where the price was before our 1st lockdown. So market is telling us there has been no growth in 20 months in house prices. What are we missing?

AND, Correct me if I'm wrong but didn't Mcquarie dump a whole lot?

[bull....]

Its only a problem if you have to sell. I hate high share prices. If you have to sell, sell now would always be my advice.

i like selling when prices are high and then buying back even more when they are lower. eg sold mel at very high prices will buy some day at lower prices than now. missed divs dont matter the gains made give me plenty time to wait for lower prices

[couta1]

Bull you are the eternal gloom and doom prophet merchant of the retirement stock sector, doubt your going to convince the longs who have multibagged by going long in these companies, your myopic trading glasses have fog on them.

[Biscuit]

i like selling when prices are high and then buying back even more when they are lower. eg sold mel at very high prices will buy some day at lower prices than now. missed divs dont matter the gains made give me plenty time to wait for lower prices

Totally agree this market is a traders market and will be for a while.

[dreamcatcher]

The cost of living in retirement has increased nearly 4% in the past year .........
The cost of retirement increases - again - Good Returns (https://www.goodreturns.co.nz/article/976519621/the-cost-of-retirement-increases-again.html)

[Beagle]

WOW this whole sector has been beaten with the ugly stick. Its depressing.

[allfromacell]

WOW this whole sector has been beaten with the ugly stick. Its depressing.

You've done well enough mate, statistically you're always bound to have a poor performer or two.

Enjoy your weekend and remember that you own the exact same business backed by the same assets as you did 6 weeks ago, the market will do what it does and you'll pickup cheper shares in the DRP.

Everything's good.

[Beagle]

You've done well enough mate, statically you're always bound to have a poor performer or two.

Enjoy your weekend and remember that you own the exact same business backed by the same assets as you did 6 weeks ago, the market will do what it does and you'll pickup cheper shares in the DRP.

Everything's good.

Thanks mate, appreciated. Sometimes I'm my own worst enemy and expect perfection and that every investment decision I make will be right and every year every share owned will give me a positive outcome. That's not really realistic especially in the circumstances this year.

[Muse]

Thanks mate, appreciated. Sometimes I'm my own worst enemy and expect perfection and that every investment decision I make will be right and every year every share owned will give me a positive outcome. That's not really realistic especially in the circumstances this year.

“Just going through a gully. A little gully.”
- the big short

Question is if this is just a gully. If labour force providers to give or share capital gains it will be a blood bath. If not party on eventually & the best business model around together with long term demographic tailwinds.

[fastbike]

Misogyny rears it's ugly head again. Please stay on topic. I'm here for insights as to what makes this company tick.

[bottomfeeder]

The SP drop is concerning, but someone is selling out for various reasons, and there are a lot who are going with the flow. Could be a manipulation preceeding a takeover. I am so overweight now in this sector it scares me a bit, but I feel as a long term hold it will have merit. It would be a bugger if this relates to leaky building issues.