OCA - Oceania Group - retirement villages

[Xerof]

I am sure manipulating the market to that extent ie the seller and the buyer being the same would be illegal. At least I hope it would be. Totally, as is swelling sell or buy sides with fake orders. But proving nefarious thoughts is difficult, and nobody gives a buck about it. Ggcc, you're doing your head in with conspiracy theories. It's simply moving with sentiment in general across the market(s)

[Ggcc]

Totally, as is swelling sell or buy sides with fake orders. But proving nefarious thoughts is difficult, and nobody gives a buck about it. Ggcc, you're doing your head in with conspiracy theories. It's simply moving with sentiment in general across the market(s)
Yeah I think I have just been overthinking. Oh well long term I hope this to be a gem

[percy]

Yeah I think I have just been overthinking. Oh well long term I hope this to be a gem

"The market" is like asking a bi-polar business owner the price of his business as you want to buy it.
When he has had a few good days of great sales he wants the world for it.
After a few bad days,when sales have been down,the bank manager wants the overdraft reduced today,and a major supplier has said they will not supply any more goods until the account is brought up to date,the owner will just about give you the business.!!
So as investors we must look past the good days ,and the bad days, and see what we value the business at.
In OCA we appear to have a company in a sector with strong tailwinds for the next 20 to 30 years.It has a strong chair person,with capable directors,so is well directed.Management are focussed.The business plan of age care,together with redevolpment of their old villages makes sense.They also see the opportunity of upmarket units.The business has the financial strength to see their projects finished. The business is showing they have shareholders interests at heart by starting to pay dividends.To me the current share price is a good opportunity for a long term investor to buy at.

[warren]

Now you couldn't get a better summary than that.

I have just had a nap and awoke refreshed and full of the wonders of Life and keen to relay the reasons for my profound joy to my fellow forumists.

A new Prime Minister rising to be a full International star---- Wait til there 2 or 3 infants waddling around Parliament and we'll see what a star really is. Slow to rush, reasoned, young, female and certainly not stale.

A very capable human reviewing the NZ taxation system and sensibly calling for submissions---done properly it will set the tone for huge financial prosperity for NZ.

And the final joy ----OCA at 97 cents??? On target for 84 Million Net and assets of 1 Bill+. On target for year dividend of 4.2--4.5 cents per 79 cent share (indeed 97 cent share) and Liz leading our company forward. Oh the wonders of life.

[Ggcc]

96 cents and still dropping. Glad that I don’t have money to spend otherwise I would have bought on the falling knife.

[Beagle]

I have just had a nap and awoke refreshed and full of the wonders of Life and keen to relay the reasons for my profound joy to my fellow forumists.

A new Prime Minister rising to be a full International star---- Wait til there 2 or 3 infants waddling around Parliament and we'll see what a star really is. Slow to rush, reasoned, young, female and certainly not stale.

A very capable human reviewing the NZ taxation system and sensibly calling for submissions---done properly it will set the tone for huge financial prosperity for NZ.

And the final joy ----OCA at 97 cents??? On target for 84 Million Net and assets of 1 Bill+. On target for year dividend of 4.2--4.5 cents per 79 cent share (indeed 97 cent share) and Liz leading our company forward. Oh the wonders of life.

Please keep up your relentless positivity, the SP needs your help.

[warren]

96 cents and still dropping. Glad that I don’t have money to spend otherwise I would have bought on the falling knife.

Hello Ggcc. Well I see it 100% differently. I see it as fabulous in that I have money to buy when I see fantastic value and I have the confidence to do so but each to his own eh and nothing wrong with money in the bank----- who will lend it in turn to businesses to operate and to expand, adding wealth to the shareholders. This was a 79 center already on task to net 84 million in its 1st year!! Already passed 1 billion in assets, already passed 3200 staff, already facing a tidal wave of demand, already on task to pay ME 4.2---4.6 cents per 79 cents (+ depending) and you are worried about a few cents. Fair enough too sir but I don't think this is your game Old Chap.

[warren]

Please keep up your relentless positivity, the SP needs your help.

Only when its deserved Mr Beagle and I mean it. I have seen thieves and scoundrels untold in NZ business. I have seen them utterly wreck my Grandfathers company, the Bank of New Zealand. to the point of bankruptcy. I am merciless in condemning bum companies and bum operators and high in my praise of good honest, ethical operators who do things, build real businesses and employ real people.

[couta1]

96 cents and still dropping. Glad that I don’t have money to spend otherwise I would have bought on the falling knife. As you are probably aware, i don't mind catching the odd falling knife, which I did this arvo with this stock, some falling knives are well worth catching.

[Food4Thought]

As you are probably aware, i don't mind catching the odd falling knife, which I did this arvo with this stock, some falling knives are well worth catching.



Glad that my fingers are bleeding and my holding is growing. I'm making good use of this falling knife.

[Joshuatree]

As i see it NZX only hold PDF's for 6 months now:eek2: so i cant see the last annual report to see how many shares Macquarie hold and confirm when the escrow period ends, ive been told end of April. This could be a big downer for the s/p if they do sell down.Are iInstos, people selling now for this reason ?

[BobbyMorocco]

As i see it NZX only hold PDF's for 6 months now:eek2: so i cant see the last annual report to see how many shares Macquarie hold and confirm when the escrow period ends, ive been told end of April. This could be a big downer for the s/p if they do sell down.Are iInstos, people selling now for this reason ?

Hey JT

The last annual report can be downloaded by going to the investor centre on OCA's website. Macquarie roughly hold 57% and the escrow arrangement is in place until the first business day after OCA releases it's results for the year ended 31 May 2018. Last year the results were released on July 27th.

[dabsman]

So how will that play out? If they dump they will destroy the price. 57% is huge. So assuming they gradually sell into the market, this will cap the price for months and months surely?

[macduffy]

So how will that play out? If they dump they will destroy the price. 57% is huge. So assuming they gradually sell into the market, this will cap the price for months and months surely?

Much more likely tht they will sek to place part or all of the holding with institutional investors and other clients at a small discount to market. At least, that's how these things normally work. Assuming, of course, that they have a more immediate attractive use for the funds!

[Joshuatree]

Hey JT

The last annual report can be downloaded by going to the investor centre on OCA's website. Macquarie roughly hold 57% and the escrow arrangement is in place until the first business day after OCA releases it's results for the year ended 31 May 2018. Last year the results were released on July 27th.

DOH! :) Thanks Bobby, of course.BTW i for one appreciate you sharing your informed ,astute comments on here.

Since Jan OCA has lost more ground then the other companies in the sector, RYM has hardly dropped

Overhangs create uncertainty until they are removed so can suppress the s/p so could be a good time to top up between now and then(31 May).
FWIW my broker has a buy on MET and a hold on OCA.

[Beagle]

I agree that this potential overhang is capping the price at present but I remain convinced on the balance of probabilities that this stock which is a needs based business that appears to be executing well and trading on most undemanding fundamental's is a good long term hold.

[percy]

"At the end of the day" what drives a compay's share price is the company's performance,rather than what major shareholders do.
We must remember that John Ryder, a very astute investor sold out of RYM early on,and Mark Stewart,another very astute investor, sold out of EBO not long before EBO share price took off.
We are seeing the same thing with TRA, where a major shareholder's estate sold, and a poorly advised capital raise has left an over hang of sellers.
OCA is in the right sector at the right time,with an excellent business model , which will deliver strong earnings ,which will "at the end of the day" add real wealth to the business for shareholders to share.
Yes watch major shareholders,but do not take your eye off the business.

[dabsman]

Ah cheers for that. Will they sell down to us little investors as well maybe?

[winner69]

Ah cheers for that. Will they sell down to us little investors as well maybe?

Unlikely ...unless you in with the big end of town and get offered some ‘cheap’ shares

[winner69]

Didn’t do Summerset any harm when pe sold out. I think they sold about 30% odd into the IPO and then sold the rest later on.

One factor with Oceania is that Macquarie didn’t take anything out in the IPO ....all the proceeds went to fund growth. Good eh

Macquaries might be happy holding this for a long time. If they do reduce they won’t be stuffing the market up ..it will be all be quick and clean

[Beagle]

Didn’t do Summerset any harm when pe sold out. I think they sold about 30% odd into the IPO and then sold the rest later on.

One factor with Oceania is that Macquarie didn’t take anything out in the IPO ....all the proceeds went to fund growth. Good eh

Macquaries might be happy holding this for a long time. If they do reduce they won’t be stuffing the market up ..it will be all be quick and clean

Many thanks for the timely reminder. Should help some people with a bit of extra peace of mind.

[Joshuatree]

At worst the overhang will give me an opportunity to top up is my thinking.

[dabsman]

Ah good - thanks for all the opinion. I was looking to buy more then got spooked

[Exodia]

"At the end of the day" what drives a compay's share price is the company's performance,rather than what major shareholders do.
We must remember that John Ryder, a very astute investor sold out of RYM early on,and Mark Stewart,another very astute investor, sold out of EBO not long before EBO share price took off.
We are seeing the same thing with TRA, where a major shareholder's estate sold, and a poorly advised capital raise has left an over hang of sellers.
OCA is in the right sector at the right time,with an excellent business model , which will deliver strong earnings ,which will "at the end of the day" add real wealth to the business for shareholders to share.
Yes watch major shareholders,but do not take your eye off the business.

Correct, at this point the SP drop is market sentiment with no relation to company performance or impact from the sector. Unconcerned.

[couta1]

At worst the overhang will give me an opportunity to top up is my thinking. At a higher price yes, remember that Macquaire can't sell any till after the next result, the price should be nearer $1.10 leading into that result, so if they sell for a discount at say $1.05, you will still be paying substantially more than right now.

[Joshuatree]

Yes,late july or early august before Mac can sell/reduce.That would be nice but who knows where the price will be. My broker has a 12 month target price of $1 and a hold for example . This sector is also sensitive to the house/property price mkt as well like or not.

[couta1]

Yes,late july or early august before Mac can sell/reduce.That would be nice but who knows where the price will be. My broker has a 12 month target price of $1 and a hold for example . This sector is also sensitive to the house/property price mkt as well like or not. 4 traders median target is $1.06, 3 years from now I reckon it's a $2 plus share. PS-Still saying it's currently the best buy in the sector, but DYOR.

[Joshuatree]

Good to hear your prediction , there no one closer to the source;). Holder here since ipo.

[BlackPeter]

4 traders median target is $1.06, 3 years from now I reckon it's a $2 plus share. PS-Still saying it's currently the best buy in the sector, but DYOR.

Let's call them a draw with SUM other company ;); BTW - pleased to note that sellers just fall over each other to sell me yesterday evening and this morning some more for 96 cents ;);

[trader_jackson]

I was really hoping for a bit more panic sellers to come in at 95c, now nobody is selling till 98c
What went wrong at 5pm yesterday I just don't know.

[Joshuatree]

Maybe we shouldn't say anything on here ehh, why spill the beans, be calm or rational, volume just picks up when about to top up. Silence is golden:)

...yeh sure, and duct tape is silver;)

[Dean007]

Which way will it go? anyone keen to hazard an educated guess :confused:
180 day MA getting very close to moving above above 30 day MA
Sp looking to break above the 30 day MA, MACD just turned positive on low volume.

[warren]

So how will that play out? If they dump they will destroy the price. 57% is huge. So assuming they gradually sell into the market, this will cap the price for months and months surely?

Not so, not at all. Not if its a good business. Remember the management team at Lion years ago selling their own shares to Kirin in the dead of night(in a matter of about 4 minutes) for a massive $5.40. The on market price at the time being far less. Kirin wanted a 45% share of a very good company so it actually put the price UP. As it turned out the Lion leaders that deserted the small shareholders were good riddance as the company flourished without them. But large parcels of good businesses will always be worth real gold. Yet another attraction of this excellent ethical company --so far.

[percy]

The two new directors Sally Evans and Greg Tomlinson will add good experience to the board.
Tomlinson really does bring "the owner's eye" to any business he is a director/shareholder in.
He is a major shareholder and director of HBL,Heartland Bank.

[percy]

Shareholdernotice today.
3,504,260 shares Harrogate,ie Greg Tomlinson.A good amount of skin on the line.
Positive.

[warren]

Shareholdernotice today.
3,504,260 shares Harrogate,ie Greg Tomlinson.A good amount of skin on the line.
Positive.

Hello Percy. You are sharp. Wow nice one. 3 and a half Mill eh. Oh well, when it gets to $2 he is away with another 3 and a half million. Good work and welcome Mr Tomlinson, now lead on.

[Food4Thought]

Hello Percy. You are sharp. Wow nice one. 3 and a half Mill eh. Oh well, when it gets to $2 he is away with another 3 and a half million. Good work and welcome Mr Tomlinson, now lead on.

Hi Warren. I think the game here is to get it to $3.50 and beyond. 2028... Can't wait to see where I am with OCA then. How quickly it gets to $2 is probably about 4 years from now. That is my estimate. I'm holding, so optimistic of course. It hard to not keep buying at current price. Sold some SUM to fund a relatively decent stake in OCA.

Have to diversify a little otherwise heavy in SUM. Good decision so far. Love OCA also for its dividend. Happy with a steady 4% moving forward. This may fund a Tesla X if all goes well. 0-100 in 4.2 Seconds ... Sure liked it when I test drove one recently... # Ramp of the day. On that matter... wait till operators can get battery systems and better electrical efficiency and the cost of keeping people warm and comfortable decreases, electric trucks... NZ cost of living is a bit ridiculous IMO - Renewable generation potential as far as the eye can see and the kiwi gets shafted by the generator... nasty profit grabbing.

Not for ever though. The options to reduce fixed/variable costs is interesting moving forward with efficient storage. Southland beautiful days aren't bad from behind a glass window, a real fire place to add ambiance, incredible insulation from the damp, with amazing seas and mountain range views.... as a operator I would be putting my money in large parcels of land getting purchased further South and people moving there... New Zealand even in winter is nicer than dozens of other countries... shame about the cost of living for most. Ohhh wait, that is happening with Dunedin growing very quickly, not to mention the educated and capable population.

Have a sweet day investors. The years gotten of to an incredible start

[warren]

[QUOTE=Food4Thought;710613]Hi Warren. I think the game here is to get it to $3.50 and beyond. 2028... Can't wait

Hello Foodie.
Well I agree 100% with you on your points. Yep, Southland/the South is tops--I had hoped a massive oil strike in the Great S. Basin that would turn Southern regions into a Dubai !!! I suspect we will live to see clean water become the next $100 a barrel commodity.
Yep OCA going good. I really support the 2 new Directors and looking forward to their leadership. Not actually long to May 30 th and the Annual profit figures??

[Food4Thought]

[QUOTE=Food4Thought;710613]Hi Warren. I think the game here is to get it to $3.50 and beyond. 2028... Can't wait

Hello Foodie.
Well I agree 100% with you on your points. Yep, Southland/the South is tops--I had hoped a massive oil strike in the Great S. Basin that would turn Southern regions into a Dubai !!! I suspect we will live to see clean water become the next $100 a barrel commodity.
Yep OCA going good. I really support the 2 new Directors and looking forward to their leadership. Not actually long to May 30 th and the Annual profit figures??

Not keen for the oil to be pulled from the South of New Zealand... spent too much time out there on the water to respect the incredible power of that Southern Ocean... and cold.... wind... waves... fjords.

I think tourism and making high quality products from food is a major asset to beautiful New Zealand.
Clean up the farms a bit, make more produce and feed the world. Wait till the boats are electric and generate power as they operate during day time and battery banks etc. The future is exciting :)

If Shell is pulling back on oil... they have to be on to something.

On the East Coast of Australia, there is now a electric recharge station highway happening. One every 300km... and more appearing every month.

May 30th. Can't wait for the results. I'm happy with slow growth, excellent long term play IMO

I don't want to see clean water get a nasty price tag. I hope it doesn't happen. Yet I know a thing or two about the complexities of water purification, treatment and storage complications. Start bottling that clean NZ rain water coming off those very large OCA roof footprints?

[warren]

Hello Foodie and Thread followers.

I am so looking forward to May 30th !!. And I'm confident too, but any guess as the OCA performance?

Off topic, but as a good keen Southern man, do you have knowledge/an opinion of/about the most interesting 105 year old Southern company called Scott Technology? Ethics is my single most important company virtue having survived lunatic 1987 and the disgusting Lion Directors' sellout in 1998 and the even more disgusting Finance House crash 2006----(some houses??---took 6 billion into the mist) and sadly observed Enron reach $100+ nz before lack of any ethics bankrupted the appalling mess in 2001.
Ethics, Ethics, Ethics. Starting and ending point for me. (A wonderful and sobering read is Mr Yates' comments on the Pioneer Maize NZ webpage about his experience rec ethics in his life---About us https://www.pioneer.co.nz/). However business models certainly requires a myriad other factors to succeed and grow.

[Ggcc]

Someone seems keen to dump a few. Maybe they know something we don’t?

[winner69]

Someone seems keen to dump a few. Maybe they know something we don’t?

You watching the depth again ...dangerous practice

Maybe its Warren selling

[Beagle]

OCA decommissioning a lot of care beds and converting them into care suites based on the occupation right agreement model.
They have a stellar reputation as service and care provides there's no question about that and also no question that these care suites offer a very high standard of facilities.
Further, if they can hit their forecast target of 8.42 cps this stock is the cheapest of the retirement operators by quite some margin and quite obviously directors and management have a LOT of skin in the game...So...what could possibly go wrong ?

Where I think the jury could be out is in regard to this consideration.
Its one thing to sign up for an occupation license agreement at age 70 when you might have a reasonable expectation of living about 15 years in an independent living unit and then have the flexibility to shift to a care suite / apartment as your needs change like RYM / SUM and others do at no additional cost to the original 20-25% loss one suffers on their original license agreement but I think its quite another thing to move into a care suite from scratch in your mid 80's knowing you'll lose 20-25% of one's capital in only a couple / few years occupancy.
I note SUM are having a few issues selling care suites at present and that's with a long runway of independent living environment unit occupiers who might want to change at very little cost, (I think from memory SUM charge 2% to transfer to a different unit / RYM are free).
Only time will tell. Disc: Still holding a moderate sized moderate conviction parcel. SUM have a more proven model with a good solid history of very high growth so hold 5 x the value there.

More than happy to hear other's opinion on this concern I have...Believe it or not Beagle's do use their ears and listen from time to time :D

[Ggcc]

https://simplywall.st/stocks/nz/healthcare/nzx-oca/oceania-healthcare-shares/news/are-oceania-healthcare-limiteds-nzeoca-interest-costs-too-high/

I do look into this liquidity test and do believe they may need a small capital raise to bring their books into a positive area regarding this test. I am happy to be told by accountants on this forum how this issue may become problematic. Still happy to hold and would support a capital raise to help Oceania expand.

[percy]

OCA decommissioning a lot of care beds and converting them into care suites based on the occupation right agreement model.
They have a stellar reputation as service and care provides there's no question about that and also no question that these care suites offer a very high standard of facilities.
Further, if they can hit their forecast target of 8.42 cps this stock is the cheapest of the retirement operators by quite some margin and quite obviously directors and management have a LOT of skin in the game...So...what could possibly go wrong ?

Where I think the jury could be out is in regard to this consideration.
Its one thing to sign up for an occupation license agreement at age 70 when you might have a reasonable expectation of living about 15 years in an independent living unit and then have the flexibility to shift to a care suite / apartment as your needs change like RYM / SUM and others do at no additional cost to the original 20-25% loss one suffers on their original license agreement but I think its quite another thing to move into a care suite from scratch in your mid 80's knowing you'll lose 20-25% of one's capital in only a couple / few years occupancy.
I note SUM are having a few issues selling care suites at present and that's with a long runway of independent living environment unit occupiers who might want to change at very little cost, (I think from memory SUM charge 2% to transfer to a different unit / RYM are free).
Only time will tell. Disc: Still holding a moderate sized moderate conviction parcel. SUM have a more proven model with a good solid history of very high growth so hold 5 x the value there.

More than happy to hear other's opinion on this concern I have...Believe it or not Beagle's do use their ears and listen from time to time :D

If it works they will do more.
If it does not work, they will not.
A customer driven company.

disc,.I hold, and The Trust I help out on brought a reasonable parcel this morning.

[winner69]

https://simplywall.st/stocks/nz/healthcare/nzx-oca/oceania-healthcare-shares/news/are-oceania-healthcare-limiteds-nzeoca-interest-costs-too-high/

I do look into this liquidity test and do believe they may need a small capital raise to bring their books into a positive area regarding this test. I am happy to be told by accountants on this forum how this issue may become problematic. Still happy to hold and would support a capital raise to help Oceania expand.

Hope t_j doesn’t read that report

[Beagle]

https://simplywall.st/stocks/nz/healthcare/nzx-oca/oceania-healthcare-shares/news/are-oceania-healthcare-limiteds-nzeoca-interest-costs-too-high/

I do look into this liquidity test and do believe they may need a small capital raise to bring their books into a positive area regarding this test. I am happy to be told by accountants on this forum how this issue may become problematic. Still happy to hold and would support a capital raise to help Oceania expand.

Have teacup...some will make storm therein.
More than likely just a timing issue as development commitments as at balance date due within the next 12 months must be classified as a current liability. Apartments due for completion and hopefully sale within that time frame must be classified as a fixed asset in development until such time as the developed units are sold. This would only become problematic if sales of care suites dropped off like a lead balloon falling and that's certainly not the extent of the potential problem I was alluding too earlier today. Just a accounting classification issue in this bean counting hounds opinion and doesn't give me any "paws" for thought :)

I think the price / PE on this one is about right until such time as they give us more colour on how their developments are going and prove up their care suite development model.

[hogie]

Bit sad when reading articles like this in the Herald last week:
http://www.nzherald.co.nz/nz/news/article.cfm?c_id=1&objectid=12026595


Hopefully these kinds of stories are the exception rather than the norm and will not hit shareholder and patient expectations too much.

[Beagle]

If it works they will do more.
If it does not work, they will not.
A customer driven company.

disc,.I hold, and The Trust I help out on brought a reasonable parcel this morning.

Good long term hold for a trust I reckon, (that's how I am looking at it too). Cheap PE, long term there's very strong demographic tailwinds, get rich slowly...

[warren]

If it works they will do more.
If it does not work, they will not.
A customer driven company.

disc,.I hold, and The Trust I help out on brought a reasonable parcel this morning.

Hello Readers.
It was caring for aged family members that first got me interested in a modest investment. My relations were very elderly but fit and enjoyed their own apartment purchased within a retirement "village". With the death of one and quickly deteriorating health of the surviving family member we were in a hell of a predicament as the village where the apartment was had no hospital care (as many villages don't) .We sold up the apartment at huge loss (the gain to the village owner was staggering thanks to selling it for more than double the original purchase cost, a $10000 selling fee and refurbishment fee of $35000, all agreed to by Grandpop upon purchase) and we trustees couldn't buy an OCA care suite fast enough. It was fabulous, we knew exactly the write off following death ($25 000 fixed) and my ancient mum was so happy. She passed away only 6 months later, we paid our $25000 loss (would have been the same if she lived 20 years) and couldn't have enjoyed the OCA experience more. I will say it again, 1st class hospital care paid by the Government in your own new suite --wow no wonder she was so happy) Popular ???? Line up folks.

[Beagle]

Hello Readers.
It was caring for aged family members that first got me interested in a modest investment. My relations were very elderly but fit and enjoyed their own apartment purchased within a retirement "village". With the death of one and quickly deteriorating health of the surviving family member we were in a hell of a predicament as the village where the apartment was had no hospital care (as many villages don't) .We sold up the apartment at huge loss (the gain to the village owner was staggering thanks to selling it for more than double the original purchase cost, a $10000 selling fee and refurbishment fee of $35000, all agreed to by Grandpop upon purchase) and we trustees couldn't buy an OCA care suit fast enough. It was fabulous, we knew exactly the write off following death ($25 000 fixed) and my ancient mum was so happy. She passed away only 6 months later, we paid our $25000 loss (would have been the same if she lived 20 years) and couldn't have enjoyed the OCA experience more )I will say it again, 1st class hospital care paid by the Government in your own new suit --wow no wonder she was so happy) Popular ???? Line up folks.

Thanks for sharing your experience.

[winner69]

OCA better watch it’s back ....MPG might win this race yet as catching up fast

https://www.sharetrader.co.nz/showthread.php?11121-OCA-or-MPG&highlight=Oca

[percy]

OCA better watch it’s back ....MPG might win this race yet as catching up fast

https://www.sharetrader.co.nz/showthread.php?11121-OCA-or-MPG&highlight=Oca

No way.!!
Incoming MPG ceo will want to "clean up the slate".

[Onion]

No way.!!
Incoming MPG ceo will want to "clean up the slate".

You seem to think that will be bad for the SP. Are you able to elaborate?

[BlackPeter]

You seem to think that will be bad for the SP. Are you able to elaborate?

Cleaning out the closets from remaining skeletons is normally good for the company, but it is unlikely to do any good to the short term share price - unless the new CEO finds less problems than the market expects. And if latter happens, the nagging question will remain: did (s)he not find them, or are they not there? So, I guess it might be better (s)he finds some more and the SP drops.

After the new CEO and next drop it might be worthwhile to consider re-investing (though not certain yet ...) ...

[percy]

Cleaning out the closets from remaining skeletons is normally good for the company, but it is unlikely to do any good to the short term share price - unless the new CEO finds less problems than the market expects. And if latter happens, the nagging question will remain: did (s)he not find them, or are they not there? So, I guess it might be better (s)he finds some more and the SP drops.

After the new CEO and next drop it might be worthwhile to consider re-investing (though not certain yet ...) ...

Thank you BP, you expressed my views better than I could have...lol.

[Scrunch]

You seem to think that will be bad for the SP. Are you able to elaborate?

New CEO's often clean out the books and attribute the additional expenditure and therefore smaller profit on their predecessor. Anything that is recognised as an expense now doesn't need to be recognised later when they are 100% responsible for the result. It also creates a lower historical profit improving the chances of growth in the next period.

[warren]

New CEO's often clean out the books and attribute the additional expenditure and therefore smaller profit on their predecessor. Anything that is recognised as an expense now doesn't need to be recognised later when they are 100% responsible for the result. It also creates a lower historical profit improving the chances of growth in the next period.

Umm interesting Gaynor read today-- FC.--$435 000 to chair the BoD. $2.9 000 000 to get rid of CEO. Potential losses looming on the desperately needed Puhoi motorway job? Maybe it is time to review how we do things in NZ. Maybe a more careful, softly spoken, collaborative approach typically taken by the female gender of our society would see fairer, steady, less risky business behavior.(OCA !!) I don't know but the Telegraph article today about Alpha male trump is INDEED a major business worry.

[percy]

Umm interesting Gaynor read today-- FC.--$435 000 to chair the BoD. $2.9 000 000 to get rid of CEO. Potential losses looming on the desperately needed Puhoi motorway job? Maybe it is time to review how we do things in NZ. Maybe a more careful, softly spoken, collaborative approach typically taken by the female gender of our society would see fairer, steady, less risky business behavior.(OCA !!) I don't know but the Telegraph article today about Alpha male trump is INDEED a major business worry.

Warren.
It is in Fletchers DNA to destroy shareholders wealth.They have always done it.Buying duds from Steel Mills to Fine Paper Mills,from Crane to Laminex,from building construction to roading construction.
Its what they do.
No one really minds,in fact shareholders are arguing about who can give them the most to lose.?

[Beagle]

Warren.
It is in Fletchers DNA to destroy shareholders wealth.They have always done it.Buying duds from Steel Mills to Fine Paper Mills,from Crane to Laminex,from building construction to roading construction.
Its what they do.
No one really minds,in fact shareholders are arguing about who can give them the most to lose.?

LOL This is the post of the week. I couldn't agree more. Really needs a name change from Fletcher Building to Fletcher Wrecking Ball !!

[Pipi]

LOL This is the post of the week. I couldn't agree more. Really needs a name change from Fletcher Building to Fletcher Wrecking Ball !!

My dad told me even back in the 70's they were called Fletcher Corruption.

[winner69]

Can we please not talk about Fletcher’s on this thread ..might give us wrong idea about Oceania

Talking of Oceania when do punters see some improvement in the share price ...or is it fully valued at the moment and it might go down a bit more until they tout their .’growth’ again

[percy]

I expect the share price will do one of three things,go sideways,go up, or go down ,until the full year result for the year ending 31st May, is announced late in July.
Whether that will take the share price above Craig's target price of $1.06, will depend on your bowling club mates strength of buying,and whether FBU take more money out of the market with another capital raise..
I welcomed the appointment of Greg Tomlinson to the board.A self made man,who has a good background in this sector,and who is also a major shareholder,and director of Heartland Bank. With Elizabeth Coutts as Chair we know we are lead by capable people.

[Xerof]

Monday or Tuesday, winner. Someone has been feeding the 99 and 98 lines for weeks now, but the urgency to buy appears to now outweigh the line feeding

IMO, DYOR, etc etc

and what percy just said. He's been a buyer too lately remember, likewise, me too,.........getting well positioned.

[Beagle]

Until we get some more clarity around the Private equity stock overhang and we get to see the annual result its hard to see it heading very far north of $1.
Good hold but plenty of patience required.

[winner69]

OCA better watch it’s back ....MPG might win this race yet as catching up fast

https://www.sharetrader.co.nz/showthread.php?11121-OCA-or-MPG&highlight=Oca

MPG going well ....only 10 cents behind now

Could even catch up with ARV at this rate

[Food4Thought]

Only a month or so till next update?

I haven't noticed any announcement from MET, SUM, RYM, OCA et al. regarding aquisitions of other smaller businesses in the same or similar category. It crosses my mind for OCA, technical ability ownership, fast expansion for company size, areas of expertise and economies of scale. OCA is one interesting horse.

[Beagle]

Dark horse too. Be interesting to see how its running on its first proper lap of the track under public ownership. Certainly priced at attractive odds, PE of only 11.5 assuming it can live up to promised form.

[Lawstudent05]

Hi All,

When is the exact date for First Year results? Tried to find in announcements but no luck with having a quick skim through. Also, I take another dividend to be posted? Thanks in advance.

Cheers

Graham

[Beagle]

Just going off memory, I could be wrong but I think they don't report until July sometime.

[percy]

The full year result was announced on the 6th July last year.

[Ggcc]

https://www.nzx.com/announcements/317410

Great news

[trader_jackson]

https://www.nzx.com/announcements/317410

Great news

They'll probably just exceed it...
man this really is dirt cheap then

[winner69]

https://www.nzx.com/announcements/317410

Great news

Didn’t they say most of this back in January ....anything new?

Must be worried about the declining share price ...needed to put something out to give it a boost

All good though ...great news ...meeting IPO forecasts ...should give everybody the warm fuzzies for a few more months

[macduffy]

Didn’t they say most of this back in January ....anything new?

Must be worried about the declining share price ...needed to put something out to give it a boost

All good though ...great news ...meeting IPO forecasts ...should give everybody the warm fuzzies for a few more months

Doesn't hurt to repeat good news.

:)

I hold.

[steveb]

Its strange the news came out over half an hour ago and not one share has changed hands!

I am temted to pick up some more at.99c

[Ggcc]

Doesn't hurt to repeat good news.

:)

I hold.
Just affirming their target which gives the market and investors the warm fuzzies and who knows they may just exceed it. I think there is good value at these prices

[trader_jackson]

Didn’t they say most of this back in January ....anything new?

Must be worried about the declining share price ...needed to put something out to give it a boost

All good though ...great news ...meeting IPO forecasts ...should give everybody the warm fuzzies for a few more months

Reading between the lines of both announcements, in Jan at half year results (where it became evident they needed a rather good 2nd half) they said they are aiming for it... now they are saying we have basically got there, and will probably exceed it a tad.

[winner69]

Its strange the news came out over half an hour ago and not one share has changed hands!

I am temted to pick up some more at.99c

give them time .... punters still in shock and haven’t picked themselves up off the floor yet

[Beagle]

Underlying profit forecast is 8.42 cps. At 99 cents this puts them on a forward, (soon to be trailing PE) of just 11.7.
Momentum building and they have a stellar reputation with late stage care. Hmmm. Question: What does a budgie say :)

[winner69]

Underlying profit forecast is 8.42 cps. At 99 cents this puts them on a forward, (soon to be trailing PE) of just 11.7.
Momentum building and they have a stellar reputation with late stage care. Hmmm. Question: What does a budgie say :)

PE of 12 might be about right considering the mix of earnings from day to care and building and selling things ...unlike SUM where essentially all earnings are from building and selling things

Whatever the announcement made puntersvremember OCA is still around and might generate some excitement ...hope so

[winner69]

Maybe nz punters in holding pattern awaiting to see the reaction on the ASX

[steveb]

Maybe nz punters in holding pattern awaiting to see the reaction on the ASX
Not much interest in Aus:-




Buyers

Buy Quantity

Prices



1
10,000
$0.800







1
10,000






Prices

Sell Quantity

Sellers



$0.925
40
2


$0.930
4,514
2



4,554
4

[winner69]

This is more like it ....better growth than sum other companies

OCEANIA HEALTH ON TRACK TO LIFT ANNUAL EARNINGS AT LEAST 51%, MEETING IPO FORECAST



http://www.sharechat.co.nz/article/453b9ba2/oceania-health-on-track-to-lift-annual-earnings-at-least-51-meeting-ipo-forecast.html?utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=Oceania%20Health%20on%20track%20to%20 lift%20annual%20earnings%20at%20least%2051%20meeti ng%20IPO%20forecast&utm_content=Oceania%20Health%20on%20track%20to%20l ift%20annual%20earnings%20at%20least%2051%20meetin g%20IPO%20forecast+CID_da9f644b3b1f0c48139bfd40ea0 8a762&utm_source=Email%20marketing%20software&utm_term=httpwwwsharechatconzarticle453b9ba2oceani a-health-on-track-to-lift-annual-earnings-at-least-51-meeting-ipo-forecasthtml

[winner69]

Mind you the paragraph below from that sharechat report implies H2 growth in underlying profits v last year isn’t that great

H2 looks like being $31m v $24m last year ......only $7m or 30% after ‘nearly doubling it’ in the first half

Or did I calculate things wrong or just don’t get it

The Auckland-based company today said it's on track to meet the forecasts provided in its 2016 initial public offering document, implying underlying earnings will rise to at least $51.4 million in the year ending May 31 from the $34 million reported in 2017. Oceania more than doubled underlying earnings in the first half of the year to $19.9 million,

[winner69]

C’mon Forbar ....we need you to put out a glowing report and a BUY

[Ggcc]

“Once the 2018 results are announced, Oceania's escrow arrangements, which lock up 57 percent owned by Macquarie Group managed funds and senior managers' holdings, will be lifted.”

Guess that’s the only reason share price seems to be sluggish. People want to see what they intend to do

[Beagle]

This is more like it ....better growth than sum other companies

OCEANIA HEALTH ON TRACK TO LIFT ANNUAL EARNINGS AT LEAST 51%, MEETING IPO FORECAST



http://www.sharechat.co.nz/article/453b9ba2/oceania-health-on-track-to-lift-annual-earnings-at-least-51-meeting-ipo-forecast.html?utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=Oceania%20Health%20on%20track%20to%20 lift%20annual%20earnings%20at%20least%2051%20meeti ng%20IPO%20forecast&utm_content=Oceania%20Health%20on%20track%20to%20l ift%20annual%20earnings%20at%20least%2051%20meetin g%20IPO%20forecast+CID_da9f644b3b1f0c48139bfd40ea0 8a762&utm_source=Email%20marketing%20software&utm_term=httpwwwsharechatconzarticle453b9ba2oceani a-health-on-track-to-lift-annual-earnings-at-least-51-meeting-ipo-forecasthtml

LOL Early days my friend but yeah the first lap around the track is starting to look like a good solid effort and they certainly have a good strong runway of consented developments ahead. I think a PE of 11.75 is a bit cheap. Once they prove themselves up a bit 14-15 is on the cards when the market gets awareness their business model works nearly as well as SUM others and heck with maybe 13-14 cps in 2-3 years time and a PE of 15 that's $2 and double your money !

[Ggcc]

It seems some people are not happy with the companies results as every time 50,000 that get sold 50,000 new ones hop onto the sell side

[Maverick]

Just for fun I`m curious if anyone knows what might be the reason for such a tight trading pattern of 98-99 cents for the last 6 weeks? I am guessing that someone has instructed their broker to sell a truck load of these things at no less than .98 so that tethers the price down. Alternatively that works the other way too if there is a big buyer which will be holding the price up. Anyhooow.... its all just conspiracy stuff on a company that ultimately will live by its own performance. Any ideas?

[Antipodean]

Hard to know - could be a number of factors.

However just looking at today's trading though - with a VWAP of 98.9 and a string of tiny sales at 98.0 after each 99.0 trade - infers something/someone is at work.

Myself I don't sweat 1c here or there as I am looking for a long term hold and doubled down on OCA today.

[Food4Thought]

Hard to know - could be a number of factors.

However just looking at today's trading though - with a VWAP of 98.9 and a string of tiny sales at 98.0 after each 99.0 trade - infers something/someone is at work.

Myself I don't sweat 1c here or there as I am looking for a long term hold and doubled down on OCA today.

Doubled down some months ago too. "This is going to be cool"

Super happy holder

[winner69]

Doubled down some months ago too. "This is going to be cool"

Super happy holder

All this doubling down seems risky behaviour

I once doubled down at the blackjack table ...and it worked out great even though mate told me aftrwards it was a stupid thing to do because the odds were aginst me

though in you guys case doube down just means becoming more resolute in your thinking you're on to a winner ...yes

[trader_jackson]

C’mon Forbar ....we need you to put out a glowing report and a BUY

They aren't allowed to do that winner, you should know that... only ARV can have a BUY rating - still hasn't helped ARV, nobody cares about this rating, or the $1.50 something price target on ARV.
Probably also don't care that Forbar reaffirmed their Neutral rating on OCA
today with a $1.07 12 month price target.

[Food4Thought]

All this doubling down seems risky behaviour

I once doubled down at the blackjack table ...and it worked out great even though mate told me aftrwards it was a stupid thing to do because the odds were aginst me

though in you guys case doube down just means becoming more resolute in your thinking you're on to a winner ...yes

Too true WINNER. I'm certainly not counting my chickens before they hatch. I have a long term outlook on this one.

My reasoning is of course my view. I see much better potential in OCA than I had in other investments and I only cut them by 2/5. This has given my numbers game a serious boost and my potential return a healthier outlook. Average return. I was deeply invested in SUM and would consider I still have a decent finger in the pie there for an average joe who has many many years to go before retirement. I am also looking at potential dividend increases and long term outlook. I know how much the older generation LOVES a good divi play and also buying in when the price is relative to a stable divi return. I use to buy term deposits a lot, yet they got minimal and this has caused a lot of cash to find growth opportunities elsewhere.

OCA has indicated positive change and development. Which to me is great news and currently delivers the best value for $ I can find. I love steady slow growth versus playing the chance game which often doesn't work out. For me in the past it made me take bigger risks, without the time to energy to participate and also anticipations on a luck basis.

I much prefer the tortoise than the hare.

[Ggcc]

Great report.

Key points I found were

We exceeded the IPO Forecasts for FY2017 and are on track to meet our IPO Forecast for FY2018 with y.o.y growth of ~35% in Underlying EBITDA.

Current 2018 they expect a dividend of 4.6% and growing each year based on today’s share price. So growth of 30% (keeping a little more realistic in case 35% is not achieved) y.o.y would be a dividend of 5.98% in 2019, 7.77% in 2020 and 10.11% in 2021 based on today’s sp!!!! Let alone the capital gain you will get.

Aged care supply not meeting up with population growth and Aged care demand outstripping supply

Improving development margins

Current pipeline is 2,123 (after delivering 127 units and bed during FY2018). This is an increase of 34% over the IPO pipeline of 1,674 when we listed in May 2017 (and an increase of 26% compared to the pipeline of 1,782 as at November 2017).

[couta1]

Announcement yeasterday was a veiled message that they are on track to exceed guidance, needs to be balanced by the Elephant in the room,being a 330million odd share overhang.

[Ggcc]

Announcement yeasterday was a veiled message that they are on track to exceed guidance, needs to be balanced by the Elephant in the room,being a 330million odd share overhang.
Which there would be institutions buying a part of those shares, only if the elephant has the intention to sell such a great thing....... maybe even at a slight premium

[Beagle]

Great report.

Key points I found were

We exceeded the IPO Forecasts for FY2017 and are on track to meet our IPO Forecast for FY2018 with y.o.y growth of ~35% in Underlying EBITDA.

Current 2018 they expect a dividend of 4.6% and growing each year based on today’s share price. So growth of 30% (keeping a little more realistic in case 35% is not achieved) y.o.y would be a dividend of 5.98% in 2019, 7.77% in 2020 and 10.11% in 2021 based on today’s sp!!!! Let alone the capital gain you will get.

Aged care supply not meeting up with population growth and Aged care demand outstripping supply

Improving development margins

Current pipeline is 2,123 (after delivering 127 units and bed during FY2018). This is an increase of 34% over the IPO pipeline of 1,674 when we listed in May 2017 (and an increase of 26% compared to the pipeline of 1,782 as at November 2017).

Very good work mate. I'm interested to get my snout into more once we see what the elephant in the room is going to do in due course.

[Food4Thought]

Very good work mate. I'm interested to get my snout into more once we see what the elephant in the room is going to do in due course.


Here is my gauge on the matter.

Currently the return is not high enough.

Potential...Implement a share buy back scheme. DRIP. Cancel bought back shares. Increase share price. Increase value of investment. Receive dividend for some years. Smile. Sell out at a lucrative profit. Or have it as a great addition to their income stream. Potentially to a larger healthcare provider, or another opportunity that will give them a healthy return on investment.

Trunk up for the "Lucky' OCA Elephant in the room.

P.s, I am not referring to myself as the elephant.

[winner69]

Back to 98 cents

On light volume so doesn’t mean anything

no worries

[Hectorplains]

Back to 98 cents

On light volume so doesn’t mean anything

no worries

Some really mixed metaphors thou, eh.

[warren]

Wow Lets have a look at the Macquarie Group shareholding in OCA. It is some 330 million shares? Lets place a value on them of 330 m x 98 cents= $323 Million . The public holds 200 Mill shares at 98cents= $196 Million . Total shareholding is worth $519 million.

HEY as I see it OCA's assets have passed $1 billion plus goodwill, 47 freehold properties, well over 1000 care units coming on stream and Liz leading (must be worth another Bill) and that experienced Southern success story giving advice/ guidance and 3500 skilled staff in place (try and duplicate that ) on course to pay a final dividend of 4----4.6%?

I am convinced Macquarie Group could get $2.50 A a share this afternoon and the buyer would still have more assets than liabilities in a top class, highly regarded, well led, skilled business with mighty cash flow and real bricks and mortar (NZ real estate in a sector growing hugely although not without competition I agree)
Cant wait for them to sell but hey this is a dividend driven, highly profitable company in its first year (Amazing). Macquarie Group would be mad to sell. (They are worth $482 bill A).
I'm buying still.

[winner69]

Wow Lets have a look at the Macquarie Group shareholding in OCA. It is some 330 million shares? Lets place a value on them of 330 m x 98 cents= $323 Million . The public holds 200 Mill shares at 98cents= $196 Million . Total shareholding is worth $519 million.

HEY as I see it OCA's assets have passed $1 billion plus goodwill, 47 freehold properties, over 1000 care units coming on stream and Liz leading (must be worth another Bill) with that experienced Southern success story giving advice/ guidance and 3500 skilled staff in place (try and duplicate that )

I am convinced Macquarie Group could get $2.50 A a share this afternoon and the buyer would still have more assets than liabilities in a top class, highly regarded, well led, skilled business with mighty cash flow and real bricks and mortar (NZ real estate in a sector growing hugely although not without competition I agree)
Cant wait for them to sell but hey this is a dividend driven, highly profitable company in its first year (Amazing). Macquarie Group would be mad to sell. (They are worth $482 bill A).
I'm buying still.

Bloody impressive numbers eh

Love that $2.50 this sfternnon bit ...really cool.

[trader_jackson]

Wow Lets have a look at the Macquarie Group shareholding in OCA. It is some 330 million shares? Lets place a value on them of 330 m x 98 cents= $323 Million . The public holds 200 Mill shares at 98cents= $196 Million . Total shareholding is worth $519 million.

HEY as I see it OCA's assets have passed $1 billion plus goodwill, 47 freehold properties, well over 1000 care units coming on stream and Liz leading (must be worth another Bill) and that experienced Southern success story giving advice/ guidance and 3500 skilled staff in place (try and duplicate that ) on course to pay a final dividend of 4----4.6%?

I am convinced Macquarie Group could get $2.50 A a share this afternoon and the buyer would still have more assets than liabilities in a top class, highly regarded, well led, skilled business with mighty cash flow and real bricks and mortar (NZ real estate in a sector growing hugely although not without competition I agree)
Cant wait for them to sell but hey this is a dividend driven, highly profitable company in its first year (Amazing). Macquarie Group would be mad to sell. (They are worth $482 bill A).
I'm buying still.


I agree. It is far too cheap.
But Mr Market doesn't seem to agree with me/you/us

[winner69]

T_j, you never have really explained by you think they are ‘cheap’

Why are they ‘cheap’

[LAC]

I am convinced Macquarie Group could get $2.50 A a share this afternoon
Probably at some stage, doubt it will be this afternoon though......

[couta1]

Probably at some stage, doubt it will be this afternoon though...... An afternoon sometime in 2020 would be infinately more probable.PS-Macquarie may only get 90c a share if they dumped the whole lot when they are able to.

[Ggcc]

I think when the sp does rise, it will happen quickly. By the end of 2021 I will see $2.50-$3.00 per share. Great return I think!!!!

[Food4Thought]

I think when the sp does rise, it will happen quickly. By the end of 2021 I will see $2.50-$3.00 per share. Great return I think!!!!

I do think similar thoughts Ggcc. There are similarities in this share to shares I purchased 10+ years ago. Often I sold out too early.

DYOR and enjoy the fun & challanges of putting your cash into operations you don't control yourself ...


You don't want to be left wishing the governement will look after your pension and retirement plans. Investing in various ways is one way to boost your wealth for the short and up to long term.

OCA IMO can do a lot of good for a kiwi company, operating in New Zealand. I value that and it is another reason I happily invested in OCA, keeping NZ money, in NZ

[Ggcc]

I do think similar thoughts Ggcc. There are similarities in this share to shares I purchased 10+ years ago. Often I sold out too early.

DYOR and enjoy the fun & challanges of putting your cash into operations you don't control yourself ...


You don't want to be left wishing the governement will look after your pension and retirement plans. Investing in various ways is one way to boost your wealth for the short and up to long term.

OCA IMO can do a lot of good for a kiwi company, operating in New Zealand. I value that and it is another reason I happily invested in OCA, keeping NZ money, in NZ
Not religious but, Amen on those thoughts!!

[dabsman]

I've been buying as much as I can afford in the last few weeks in the 90's. I see this as a realistic 50% + return in 12 months

[warren]

\
I've been buying as much as I can afford in the last few weeks in the 90's. I see this as a realistic 50% + return in 12 months

I note OCA has 1443 care units in the pipeline. That is a very big cash flow stream of possibly close to $450 mill.I am not certain of prices of these suites outside AK and ,of course, this will take some years. (indeed hopefully the growth in care of all types will long outlast me!). With OCA's super record and ability to care for the unwell, infirm etc the suites will, of course, bring ever increasing care and hospital type work, need ever increasing staff and will generate income. Managed carefully, accounting for every dollar, free of thieves(which have plagued my investment history both in my business life and in NZ public companies), developing 1st class staff in every area. I fully accept OCA has competition and good competition too---- so much the better to learn,aim high and deliver. And having Liz leading OCA is worth another bill.

OCA has "Stable revenue from “needs-based”care service which underpins our dividend payments with Regular “annuity-like” DMF earnings from the village activities" taken straight from Macquarie Conference Investor Presentation (https://www.nzx.com/announcements/317466)

Doesn't "Annuity" mean an inflation adjusted pension income!!!
I'm going out to buy some more.

[Beagle]

Looking ahead to FY19 I have these on a dividend yield of 5.5% based on 5.5 cps, the mid point of their payout range 50 - 60% on underlying earnings of 10 cps. (No imputation credits at this stage but there could be later which would be a good bonus on top of that 5.5%). Paid pretty well to enjoy seeing your capital grow.
Lower risk than some of the others in the sector too due to more care based business and a much higher percentage of future developments already having resource consent.
Forward PE only about 10. Once they prove up their business model and we get rid of the private equity overhang this once could fly !

[Ggcc]

Some big numbers and back to the 99-100

[Xerof]

warren bought them all :t_up:

anyway, lets see if that clears the current overhang out or not

[couta1]

warren bought them all :t_up:

anyway, lets see if that clears the current overhang out or not Just another 327 odd million to go, should be cleared by tonight.

[warren]

Just another 327 odd million to go, should be cleared by tonight.

Agree fully that Mr market awaits news on the Macquarie holding of course. But I personally have no worries. 1 Billion assets in good stuff ? Highly profitable in its 1st year with much growth ahead and good people, very good people in place.

I see that Xero is, after 10 years, possibly on the way to posting a small dividend.

"Having accumulated $334.8 million of losses over the past decade, Xero posted its first positive earnings before interest, tax, depreciation and amortisation of $26 million in the year on a 38 percent gain in operating revenue to $397.7 million and a 34 percent gain in subscriber numbers to 1.39 million".

Not for me folks.

[tipsy]

What's up with the sudden surge in volume on both OCA and ARV?

[trader_jackson]

What's up with the sudden surge in volume on both OCA and ARV?

Mr Market probably realising just how dam cheap they are?!

[BlackPeter]

Mr Market probably realising just how dam cheap they are?!

Latest house price report looks pretty good (Winner published the link somewhere). Should be a nice push for all good retirement village providers ....

[winner69]

Latest house price report looks pretty good (Winner published the link somewhere). Should be a nice push for all good retirement village providers ....

http://www.sharechat.co.nz/article/ce913d2f/nz-house-sales-rise-6-6-in-april-on-strong-demand-tight-inventory-pushes-up-prices.html?utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=NZ%20house%20sales%20rise%2066%20in%2 0April%20on%20strong%20demand%20tight%20inventory% 20pushes%20up%20prices&utm_content=NZ%20house%20sales%20rise%2066%20in%20 April%20on%20strong%20demand%20tight%20inventory%2 0pushes%20up%20prices+CID_f81803ec686cdaf98afcd150 b05e670f&utm_source=Email%20marketing%20software&utm_term=httpwwwsharechatconzarticlece913d2fnz-house-sales-rise-6-6-in-april-on-strong-demand-tight-inventory-pushes-up-priceshtml

[dabsman]

A rising tide raises all boats? Or whatever the saying is? 2 birds in the bed are better than none is my favorite one thou I'm not sure that's the right use either?

[couta1]

Agree fully that Mr market awaits news on the Macquarie holding of course. But I personally have no worries. 1 Billion assets in good stuff ? Highly profitable in its 1st year with much growth ahead and good people, very good people in place.

I see that Xero is, after 10 years, possibly on the way to posting a small dividend.

"Having accumulated $334.8 million of losses over the past decade, Xero posted its first positive earnings before interest, tax, depreciation and amortisation of $26 million in the year on a 38 percent gain in operating revenue to $397.7 million and a 34 percent gain in subscriber numbers to 1.39 million".

Not for me folks. The XRO story is awesome, I have a lot of respect for long term holders and those that made heaps from buying early and selling near the top(Whoops, that should be double top) Who knows where the price will be in a few years? Whilst a share like OCA is a good solid buy, it will never return to IPO buyers anything like what XRO has.

[Xerof]

Just another 327 odd million to go, should be cleared by tonight.
They are in escrow until after the results are announced I believe, in May 18. Oh, thats soon.

so has an insto cleared the decks in anticipation of Maccaquacca selling down immediately? Can't see it, they'll do a trade deal(s)

So it'll be next Monday night then :eek2:

[Beagle]

I have last years annual report (hard copy) on my desk as I'm typing this. I can assure you their balance date is 31 May each year and you can look forward to them reporting their annual result in late July 2018.

[Xerof]

Ah, yep, I knew May had something to do with it, thanks B. I was just relying on some unreliable memory cells, which aren't hard copy:confused:

[warren]

The XRO story is awesome, I have a lot of respect for long term holders and those that made heaps from buying early and selling near the top(Whoops, that should be double top) Who knows where the price will be in a few years? Whilst a share like OCA is a good solid buy, it will never return to IPO buyers anything like what XRO has.

I agree with you Mr couta.
But I will say I would be most likely to buy at 41 and have to sell at 26. Like Mr Buffet says, who knows the real worth of an intellectual Company? Not him and sure as hell not me...... and no dividend for 11 years!!!
Not for me..... but OCA yummy!!!
I see lots of selling and buying of OCA! Why not? Buy and hold for approx 10 weeks and you get 2...2.6 %-in the bank- That's close to 13% p.a. That would help those share funds by that amt! Little wonder then the buying pressure but who is selling (a nut case or .....) ??????

[Food4Thought]

I agree with you Mr couta.
But I will say I would be most likely to buy at 41 and have to sell at 26. Like Mr Buffet says, who knows the real worth of an intellectual Company? Not him and sure as hell not me...... and no dividend for 11 years!!!
Not for me..... but OCA yummy!!!
I see lots of selling and buying of OCA! Why not? Buy and hold for approx 10 weeks and you get 2...2.6 %-in the bank- That's close to 13% p.a. That would help those share funds by that amt! Little wonder then the buying pressure but who is selling (a nut case or .....) ??????

A machine is buying and selling
....

[Ggcc]

Looks positive. Glad I am +++ invested in this share. Must admit too early to say it is rising quickly

[winner69]

Looks positive. Glad I am +++ invested in this share. Must admit too early to say it is rising quickly

Tis on fire eh ...about time

Closing in on that all time high of 111

Good stuff

[trader_jackson]

Sure is winner69, highest it has been since February, yet still so cheap, even that all time high price is going to prove to be cheap in a few years time I'm sure.
we need to keep saying positive things to keep the share price up above $1, and only going up

[Xerof]

looking like clear skies above, at the moment. That last crossing of the 1.5m, 0.3m and then the odd number was a sure sign the seller has finished, to me anyway.

lets see from here

[RTM]

looking like clear skies above, at the moment. That last crossing of the 1.5m, 0.3m and then the odd number was a sure sign the seller has finished, to me anyway.

lets see from here

The seller might be just playing with us. Seeing how high it will go ?

[Beagle]

The seller might be just playing with us. Seeing how high it will go ?

Looks promising but its very early days for this company and we have the substantial private equity overhang that comes into possible play once they report in late July 2018.

[dabsman]

Looks promising but its very early days for this company and we have the substantial private equity overhang that comes into possible play once they report in late July 2018.

Apart from an institutional sale process the may also offer a rights issue to holders? Or am I far from reality here? Disclaimer here is obvious - I don't know what I'm doing...

[Lawstudent05]

Hi All,
Could someone provide a screen dump of the buy and sell waiting list.

Also - anyone with time care to explain the rights issue to holders, great to learn.

Glad to see price rising, have held from IPO.

Cheers

[huxley]

Hi All,
Could someone provide a screen dump of the buy and sell waiting list.

Also - anyone with time care to explain the rights issue to holders, great to learn.

Glad to see price rising, have held from IPO.

Cheers

Looks like the depth is out of action for Anz securities, might be the same for other providers

[winner69]

Looks like the depth is out of action for Anz securities, might be the same for other providers

Heaps more buyers than sellers (700k plus v 177k) but mostly in the 90s

Depth not that informative

[winner69]

Achieving $54m in F18 underlying earnings easy peasey

That’s about 9 cents a share so a share price over $1.30 would be more reasonable

Even then would br ‘cheaper’ than SUM other company.

OCA had its time on the sidelines .....market finally realising what its missing out on

Onwards and upwards (quite fast) from here

[winner69]

Meant to add that Macquarie won’t ‘dump’ their shares on the market ...not their way of doing things

If they want out it will be done all nice and orderly

Talk if this ‘overhang’ is just punters with vivid imaginations

[winner69]

t_j reminded us yesterday share price highest since February

Now it’s broken the shackles and gone through the 101 barrier good time to be in.

Last time it exhibited that behaviour resulted in a good trade

However had to sell around the 109/110 mark when it run out of puff

But time has moved on and OCA have reassured us that all is on track so hopefully this time I’ll be holding a lot longer .....well into the 130s before the end of June I reckon.

[Beagle]

Apart from an institutional sale process the may also offer a rights issue to holders? Or am I far from reality here? Disclaimer here is obvious - I don't know what I'm doing...

I think an institutional placement is the most likely outcome if they want to exit their stake. Probably done nice and orderly like Winner has suggested. They'll probably have a trading halt while the book-build process for the placement is undertaken. Who knows, if its a great result for the year ended 31 May announced in due course and the outlook looks strong any placement could be north of the current SP or perhaps not. What's not in dispute is that the company is confident they're on track to meet their prospectus forecast of 8.42 cps underlying profit and at $1.02 that puts the company on forward PE, (very shortly to be historic PE) of just 12.1 making it the cheapest stock in the retirement sector by quite SUM margin.

That said you'd expect SUM others to be trading at a significantly higher PE given their remarkably consistent and proven high growth rate. This one is like a young filly having its first gallop around the track after showing promising form at the trials. Its cheap but unproven at this stage in my opinion.
I like this one and have a stake but I prefer my horses to be more seasoned and proven performers.

[Maverick]

Beagle, I always respect your point of view and totally rate your opinions offered to us all. I`ve spent a load of time on OCA and ARV recently and I don`t quite feel your reluctance on OCA`s youth. They have been constructing stuff for at least 7 years with their profit margins on the builds CONSISTENTLY improving each year. That tells me they know how to tell builders what they want and how much to pay. Their asset value has also CONSISTENTLY grown too which tells me the same story. Add on to that their proven reputation of no 1 elderly care reputation.

On a slightly different tangent now...The whole macquarie thing seems to have spooked many but I think it's all a bit overdone . My belief is that they have just done their job and geared up working capital for expansion. Bulk up or be swallowed up. On this specific occasion they are our friends.

For me the horse doesn't need to do any more laps, its already bolted.

[Beagle]

Thanks Maverick, that's very kind of you and yes looking at the filly from your perspective the coat looks pretty shiny ! No argument with that and totally respect your point of view. I guess where I'm coming from is for a slightly higher multiple one can have a proven performer that improves its speed at 45% average for every lap of the track and with SUM six laps done now while listed and 14 before that, that's a mighty impressive stayer.

I do acknowledge your point though that OCA have a track record of getting projects completed on time and on budget and that's no mean feat in the Auckland market especially and as you say their care reputation is second to none. They also have a good pipeline of consented developments. Bob each way bet can't hurt, might even get the quinella :)
I'm looking to add some more OCA and get back into RYM in the near future. The tsunami of baby boomers entering retirement over the next 25 years makes the whole sector a no brainer long term investment in my opinion.

[Lawstudent05]

Hi All,

FYI - https://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/news/article.cfm?c_id=3&objectid=12051079

Article on retirement villages as a whole in New Zealand.

[Beagle]

Hi All,

FYI - https://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/news/article.cfm?c_id=3&objectid=12051079

Article on retirement villages as a whole in New Zealand.

Thank you for the link. I see the national penetration rate increasing steadily to 15% over the next decade or so.

[Maverick]

Hi All,

FYI - https://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/news/article.cfm?c_id=3&objectid=12051079

Article on retirement villages as a whole in New Zealand.

Thanks law student for posting this link. The only thing that could derail this retirement village juggernaut is over supply so the NZ hearlad head lines "81 retirement villages planned but little change in demand among kiwis over 75" is of huge concern.

i doubt there are few who could read this article through its 3 page entirety without drifting off into R.E.M. Sleep. However ...persist we must , the concept is vital. The article headline implies a lacklustre increase in penetration rate* amongst the oldies while villas are being built flat out. (*That means the % of 75+yr olds that live in a retirement home,currently 12.6 %)

the news article is derived from JLL white paper- retirement village data base. Some serious intel gathered for us on a plate by JLL, cheers to you guys.So to sum up the gist of it to save folk out there with better things to do here goes,

JLL Front page executive summary says the low penetration rates are not customer driven but rather "the supply of retirement village units in the region have not kept pace with growth in residents aged 75+ yrs in the area."
also "JLL expects to record continued growth in NZ 75+ penetration rate over the next 15 yrs, assuming adequate RV unit supply reaches the market in order to fulfil demand"

last year an extra 2123 oldies went into a village . So I guess that needs a build rate of about 1700 (my unresearched guess)units to accomodate them which is about the current build rate.

so ....no need for concern,well at least for 20 years. In fact I think the more that get built will just mean more oldies get to move in sooner. "build them and they will come",Kevin Costner.

All of this is about villas , not care beds , so that really plays plays into OCA s hand, because there ain't many of those being built.

disclaimer, I have two oldies who I want the best for.

[Xerof]

I like this filly. She reminds me of Black Caviar - famously recognised to have "the neck of a duchess and the ar$e of a cook".

So far, she has only won her first 'on-track' race, but if I have backed the right horse, there's a winning streak of 24 more 'wins' to come.

I'll keep putting more bets on her nose after each win over the next few years, i.e. add to a winning position

[winner69]

I like this filly. She reminds me of Black Caviar - famously recognised to have "the neck of a duchess and the ar$e of a cook".

So far, she has only won her first 'on-track' race, but if I have backed the right horse, there's a winning streak of 24 more 'wins' to come.

I'll keep putting more bets on her nose after each win over the next few years, i.e. add to a winning position

I think Black Caviar would beat Winx if they could have a match race ....but only just

[Food4Thought]

Lawstudent thanks for the link to the informative article.

I would like to see a global analysis on the desirability and realistic expectation that will happen to New Zealand. A result of immigration into New Zealand. There are some positives in the future that are not accounted for.

Once migration is through a few hurdles of people who have arrived in the last say 5 years their family members can be sponsored etc. Many variables to consider.

New Zealand as a retirement destination etc. Increased expectations by the ageing population. New norms.

[warren]

Wow close to 2 million shares in this small NZSX company sold dropping with a 2.....2.9 % return due in, roughly the next 6 weeks giving the big boys a 13% annual return. I cannot understand this as it defies logic. Anyone got a logical answer as I would very much like to learn more.
The price has nothing actually to do with my interest, rather its the remarkable numbers sold forgoing this profitable time period just ahead. Mr. Market is famous for being sane but!!!!!!

[Beagle]

Balance date is 31 May. They will report in late July. The dividend is unlikely to be paid before late August.
Your best guide to likely final dividend date is to extrapolate out 6 months from the interim dividend payment date which was on 20 February 2018.
I personally don't think a modest dividend due in late August has any effect on the SP now and is unlikely too until such time as the dividend is formally announced in late July.

[couta1]

Wow close to 2 million shares in this small NZSX company sold dropping with a 2.....2.9 % return due in, roughly the next 6 weeks giving the big boys a 13% annual return. I cannot understand this as it defies logic. Anyone got a logical answer as I would very much like to learn more.
The price has nothing actually to do with my interest, rather its the remarkable numbers sold forgoing this profitable time period just ahead. Mr. Market is famous for being sane but!!!!!! I think you mearnt to say, Mr Market is famous for being insane, which it is.

[warren]

I think you mearnt to say, Mr Market is famous for being insane, which it is.

Yes Mr C I do agree------- but Ben Graham said it was nearly always accurate but, with ability and insightful research, it WAS just possible to find bargains!!!! M thanks chaps .

[winner69]

The way the property market has been performing of late the embedded value Oceania say they have is now heaps more than shown in the interim report.

Resales in H2 will pick this up in underlying earnings

Because of this and if the number of sales is a bit higher than expected (double whammy) that $50m odd underlying earnings will be smashed ...maybe by up to 10% more

And the share price collapses today ...just a blip ....be over $1.10 next week on way to $1.30 plus. The market still be roused from a period of uncertainty

[trader_jackson]

Mr Market offering a great deal on OCA shares right now, should one choose to accept it.
Because these low prices won't last long... surely

[winner69]

Mr Market offering a great deal on OCA shares right now, should one choose to accept it.
Because these low prices won't last long... surely

Can't be such a great deal and no big rush to take it up --- although today was a bit busy but that was probably instos playing games

The likes of you t_j are letting the team down ...why aren't you and your believers buying heaps more --- needs somebody to create the illusion of demand

[trader_jackson]

Can't be such a great deal and no big rush to take it up --- although today was a bit busy but that was probably instos playing games

The likes of you t_j are letting the team down ...why aren't you and your believers buying heaps more --- needs somebody to create the illusion of demand

Yes we need the illusion of demand because right now we have the illusion of people wanting to get out
Clearly those people selling today didn't know what they were buying/holding in the first place or something

[winner69]

Yes we need the illusion of demand because right now we have the illusion of people wanting to get out
Clearly those people selling today didn't know what they were buying/holding in the first place or something

Could be profit taking by a lot of those who bought at the IPO a year ago ....been patient but seen the price go nowhere since it got to a buck last July/August and have just given up ....But cashed in a decent 12 month return.

They may be the clever ones after all.

[huxley]

Could be profit taking by a lot of those who bought at the IPO a year ago ....been patient but seen the price go nowhere since it got to a buck last July/August and have just given up ....But cashed in a decent 12 month return.

They may be the clever ones after all.


It's sure been in a wee bit of holding pattern for a while now..

[Grimy]

Oh well, I bought a few on today's dip.

[winner69]

It's sure been in a wee bit of holding pattern for a while now..

Sure has - almost 8 months of going nowhere

Could say a flat trend

Trends generally only get broken / change by ‘shocks’ (something that isn’t normal or happened previously). If that doesn’t occur the ‘trend’ / status quo remains

Wonder what the ‘shock’ to break Oceania out of it malaise will be? ...and when?

Recent announcements have done nothing ...too mundane .... all expected ....it needs a ‘shock’

The market is not insane as some say.

This is not technical analysis ....rather a discussion on what makes trends change.

[Beagle]

The filly has a shiny coat, is well groomed and well proportioned but the fact is there's no real conviction to pay more than a buck per share.
I really don't see that sentiment changing much until the majority owner has decided what they want to do with their stake.
People can bleat and moan and shoot the breeze all they like but until we see the results in late July I doubt it will make much if any difference.
Thankfully late July is only a couple of months away so the impatient don't have all that long to wait now.

[BlackPeter]

Not sure what all the moaning is about.

These shares went up in a year from 84 cents to $1 and paid a 4 cent dividend along the way.

That's roughly a 24% return in a year, 30% if you hold since IPO (just some days more). Not too shabby - and actually this share has the potential to do the same trick again and again and again.

I am quite happy to wait and expect in the decades to come a similar return from this share - year after year. And this will be absolutely independent from any big shareholder buying or selling or whatever - it is just the performance of the company which counts long term.

Not too worried about the market doing its thing and to overlay some oscillations - at the end its the long term trend which counts ;);

Seriously - why would anybody worry whether the SP is today at 98 cents or at 103? Who cares? Any other investor out there?

[Xerof]

Yes BP, one more here - read my previous tip sheet:)

[Lawstudent05]

BlackPeter - a young novice here and I agree with your statement. I am a long-term investor in my approach to shares and property. Although I only stumble through the financials with my basic knowledge, the point which made me jump on this and get involved in the IPO is the tidal wave of retirees in the next 1-2 decades (I guess a macro view to our urn shape population). The leadership of the board seems good, and a track record of delivering projects on a budget (correct me if I'm wrong), also the units and buildings they build are pretty fantastic and seem to be winning alot of awards (I follow them on Facebook and get posts about once per week on recent activities in the units).

Would be great if someone has the time to help me a question I have after reading a few of the posts in the past 1-2 days. OCA is partly owned by another company - who holds a large stake, substantial I guess. What impact would it have on the OCA if the other company was wanting to get out, also why would the other company want to get out, results have been great to date.

Winner69 - what makes you think the price is going to lift in the next 1-2 weeks just out of interest.

Thanks in advance, and please keep all the comments coming. Its great to learn.

[dabsman]

Can't wait for Winners response to this...

[trader_jackson]

Straight back to that bigly $1.02 with nobody selling till $1.03 - no worries
Looks like yesterday was no more than an illusion of people wanting to get out

[dabsman]

I personally are looking for about 30% p.a. for the next 5 years at least. 25% capital and 5% divvy give or take a percent or 2. I think BP is totally right. Regardless of the overhang and how they deal with it post result the worst that can happen is a short window of buying opportunity - the best is steady as we go with 30% returns year in year out. I got as much as I could at listing and have bought 6 more tranches up to $1.03 and will keep on buying at these prices

[warren]

Interesting math here ---"Ryman will pay a final dividend of 10.9 cents a share on June 22, taking the total dividend for the year to 20.4 cents, up from 17.8 cents a year earlier. Its shares last traded at $11.24 and have gained 30 percent the past year".

Good for Ryman but as I see it its a 2% (max ) return on capital ($11.24) to the stock holder?
Yet in its 1st year OCA is on target to pay stockholders 4....4.9% maybe even 5% ($1.0 .......$1.05 share cost approx) . I love dividends so should I sell every Ryman share I have and buy OCA ?? I do see the 30% increase in stock value but I love cash --and they may not get another 30% as the numbers get rather large whereas on a little bitzy $1 ummm!

[couta1]

Interesting math here ---"Ryman will pay a final dividend of 10.9 cents a share on June 22, taking the total dividend for the year to 20.4 cents, up from 17.8 cents a year earlier.Its shares last traded at $11.24 and have gained 30 percent the past year".

Good for Ryman but as I see it its a 2% (max ) return on capital ($11.24) to the stock holder?
Yet in its 1st year OCA is on target to pay stockholders 4....4.9% maybe even 5% ($1.0 .......$1.05 share cost approx) . I love dividends so should I sell every Ryman share I have and buy OCA ?? I do see the 30% increase in stock value but I love cash --and they may not get another 30% as the numbers get rather large whereas on a little bitzy $1 ummm!
If it's divvies you want, why wouldn't you buy the likes of HLG and SPK and get 10% gross minimum return? I would be basing the decision on potential increase in SP over the next few years, OCA should double over the next 2 or so years, I doubt RYM will. PS-Having said that RYM still top dog on the porch and have an amazing history in comparison to OCA at this point in time.

[winner69]

Interesting math here ---"Ryman will pay a final dividend of 10.9 cents a share on June 22, taking the total dividend for the year to 20.4 cents, up from 17.8 cents a year earlier. Its shares last traded at $11.24 and have gained 30 percent the past year".

Good for Ryman but as I see it its a 2% (max ) return on capital ($11.24) to the stock holder?
Yet in its 1st year OCA is on target to pay stockholders 4....4.9% maybe even 5% ($1.0 .......$1.05 share cost approx) . I love dividends so should I sell every Ryman share I have and buy OCA ?? I do see the 30% increase in stock value but I love cash --and they may not get another 30% as the numbers get rather large whereas on a little bitzy $1 ummm!


Ryman have never gone back to shareholders for more cash since the IPO ...majority of profits churned back into the business

I reckon that Oceania will need to go back to shareholders sometime if they continue to pay these big divies ....debt can only go so far

[Maverick]

Ryman have never gone back to shareholders for more cash since the IPO ...majority of profits churned back into the business

I reckon that Oceania will need to go back to shareholders sometime if they continue to pay these big divies ....debt can only go so far

The way I see the model it's not that cash hungry to expand. The magic of the "right to occupy" model is that you don't need that much money to keep growing.

Bob the builder assembles the unit, OCA say thanks very much, good job and hands over the cash for the keys. Then grandma rocks up to OCA and says "wow , I like that " and pays cash up front for it and moves in for 7.7 years. OCA have just recouped their outlay (which includes about a $58,000 profit margin on the build.) All cashed up ,OCA can go back to see Bob to build another one. Repeat.

Then when Grandma moves out she has the substantial deferred management fees and tidying up costs deducted from her initial outlay. OCA put their prices up after 7.7 years of inflation and starts the whole process again.

The way gran sees it, she bought the "corker nice" place. OCA see it as Gran has just paid cash for a house she is now renting from OCA...plus she will pay to repaint it when she leave.... model tenant. Everyone is happy.

They are looking at applying this model to care beds now too but I don`t know how far down that track they are.

[Xerof]

Q. Are IFT talking to MQG about an OCA shareholding? ;)

A. I don't know

but what sliver of info has prompted your question?

[Ggcc]

Q. Are IFT talking to MQG about an OCA shareholding? ;)

When I went to the infratil shareholder meeting. One of the directors said the reason why they sold out of Metlifecare was the clever accounting was even too clever for them to understand. They believed MET was a sound business, but due to them not fully understanding they sold that asset...... seemed with MET they did the right thing.
I would be surprised if they bought into OCA, but hey who know what the superfund and infratil could do for the elderly of NZ.

[warren]

If it's divvies you want, why wouldn't you buy the likes of HLG and SPK and get 10% gross minimum return? I would be basing the decision on potential increase in SP over the next few years, OCA should double over the next 2 or so years, I doubt RYM will. PS-Having said that RYM still top dog on the porch and have an amazing history in comparison to OCA at this point in time.

Many thanks C. Most interesting. Naturally I am as keen on tax fee C growth as anyone hence my very real $ interest in OCA.
but to hold Ryman stock at , say, 2% return when the chances of it doubling to $22 are fairly remote to say the least! makes me scratch my head. (I willingly acknowledge R's blue chip status but we've got Liz they haven't!) But OCA with a 4--5% return already proved (and almost in the bank) and a very Very real chance of doubling to $2 makes me feel rather content. (as I see things) so far.

[tobo]

I was just reading about an Australian company, Zenitas, who are addressing a gap in public funding and addressing the fact that a large percentage of people 'want' to age in their own home, by providing in-home services. Obviously this business model is very transport oriented, needing a distributed localised delivery.
It appears that the equivalent services are supplied by a myriad of little businesses in NZ. (And, indeed, Zenitas bought a few businesses to build themselves up.)
Am I right in thinking there is no public company in NZ that has this business model? It occurs to me that a village with a large infrastructure (kitchen, health, and care staff) could add this (as a sub-business) to people living in the surrounding streets (or wider). A village-based business already has a network of infrastructure around the country.

[Xerof]

For in-home assistance in NZ, it's provided by a division of the DHB's called Health Care. It's free (or at least it might be asset tested, not sure) and is an attempt to keep folk in their homes as long as possible, before they go into rest homes. Far cheaper for the gummit, before they go in to villages that carry a massive taxpayer funded subsidy. It works very well, I have recently experienced it with my mother-in=law.

[tobo]

Thanks Xerof.

Discl: holding and buying OCA

[winner69]

Closed the week at $1.00 ...unchanged for the week in spite of all the mid week excitement. Been about a buck plus or minus a few cents for many months

What’s going to be ‘shock’ that gets the OCA out of its malaise

No ‘shock’ and share price stays about a buck ....at least its looking like that

[Xerof]

Dear boy, simply a retest of the breakout level. Time to buy again Monday

[kiora]

For in-home assistance in NZ, it's provided by a division of the DHB's called Health Care. It's free (or at least it might be asset tested, not sure) and is an attempt to keep folk in their homes as long as possible, before they go into rest homes. Far cheaper for the gummit, before they go in to villages that carry a massive taxpayer funded subsidy. It works very well, I have recently experienced it with my mother-in=law.

+ Hospice ?

[Beagle]

Not sure what all the moaning is about.

These shares went up in a year from 84 cents to $1 and paid a 4 cent dividend along the way.

That's roughly a 24% return in a year, 30% if you hold since IPO (just some days more). Not too shabby - and actually this share has the potential to do the same trick again and again and again.

I am quite happy to wait and expect in the decades to come a similar return from this share - year after year. And this will be absolutely independent from any big shareholder buying or selling or whatever - it is just the performance of the company which counts long term.

Not too worried about the market doing its thing and to overlay some oscillations - at the end its the long term trend which counts ;);

Seriously - why would anybody worry whether the SP is today at 98 cents or at 103? Who cares? Any other investor out there?

Good post BP. Agree although I think 10-15% per annum gains are more likely plus ~ 5% dividends. Nothing too shabby about that. Good buying up to and including $1.00 at present...anything above that at this stage is just the market getting a few months ahead of itself in my opinion.

[Maverick]

totally agree with your anticipated figures Beagle but I also reckon we can add a third layer of an extra 5-10 % pa for the next five years as it's Pe is revised from 11.5 to 16 -18 Pe. So, as over optimistic as it sounds I think we can expect a total return of at least 20% for many years.

[Lukeskywalker]

Greetings OCA friends..long time reader, first time posting. I'm 22 from Auckland. Feel like I know you all well from months of reading your comments. Looking forward to what OCA has to offer in 2018.

Disc: my biggest holding by far!

[couta1]

Greetings OCA friends..long time reader, first time posting. I'm 22 from Auckland. Feel like I know you all well from months of reading your comments. Looking forward to what OCA has to offer in 2018.

Disc: my biggest holding by far! May the force of the Grey Tsunami be with you young Skywalker. PS-Did you know that in real life Beagle is actually an oversized Teddy bear and not a dog at all.

[Beagle]

totally agree with your anticipated figures Beagle but I also reckon we can add a third layer of an extra 5-10 % pa for the next five years as it's Pe is revised from 11.5 to 16 -18 Pe. So, as over optimistic as it sounds I think we can expect a total return of at least 20% for many years.

Yeap, I'd go along with your thesis of the probability of PE expansion as they prove the robustness of their business model. PE expansion highly likely in my opinion although I think this is probably to the mid teens in the foreseeable future.

[Lawstudent05]

Nice little jump for the day, up 2c. Wonder how long it will hold.

[winner69]

Nice little jump for the day, up 2c. Wonder how long it will hold.

Start of that much anticipated breakout ....again ....be $1.10 by end of week

[Lawstudent05]

i will shout you a virtual beer emoji if we get there!

[winner69]

i will shout you a virtual beer emoji if we get there!

What will I get when it gets to $1.30 in a month or two

When breakouts accur they often overshoot

[Filthy]

you should be able to afford a real beer by then

[Maverick]

Morning star have just increased Ryman`s FVE to $11.30. They reckon that Ryman has a decent economic moat around it. I don't agree with them at all. The Ryman brick walls can be climbed! I can see it now, an unstoppable silver/grey army of determined ARV and OCA residents on amphibious motor scooters.

[Food4Thought]

Anyone know where the beat place is to find the numbers for this ageing population? Break down of age groups etc?

[winner69]

Anyone know where the beat place is to find the numbers for this ageing population? Break down of age groups etc?

This is rather cool (once you get the feel for it)

https://www.stats.govt.nz/tools/interactive-population-pyramid-for-new-zealand

Stats have heaps of stuff on their site - including population projections well out into the future. Links on that same page

[fiasco]

The JLL Retirement Village white paper is also quite a good reference for population numbers - note, it was released early 2017:

http://www.jll.nz/new-zealand/en-gb/Research/jll-nz-retirement-village-whitepaper-2017.pdf

[value_investor]

Finally got into this one with a very small position. Not normally an investor who likes to buy into unproven companies, but I like the signs. I would have to see more to load up on more shares going forward.

Management are loading up on shares, and the company has so far delivered on promises. Share price is also quite cheap and it could be a very good long term hold. I'm not interested in price changes in the short term but I'd like to see more dialogue about the medium-long term aspirations of this one.

[Fox]

I too bought some today on the back of the couple of sellers smashing those buy orders. On a PE of ~9.9 with FY18 forecast figures that they reaffirmed recently, it sure is excellent value within this industry given the likes of RYM and SUM on a PE of 28 and 20 respectively. Yes, OCA doesn't have the proven track record of development growth as some others, however the fact they're delivering developments on schedule and meeting the promised lofty IPO forecasts gives me strength they are serious about this.

The market is most likely over-discounting the sell down of Macquarie's escrow shares. As mentioned by other posters, this will be in an orderly block sale to institutional holders at a slight discount to market. Nothing to worry about.

I'm not afraid to add these to the stash of SUM at the bottom of the drawer and watch the returns grow over the near future. Buying at these levels has enough margin of safety to weather any complications, but I only see upside from here. Some fresh guidance around the corner should be the kick that this stock deserves.

Best paired in a portfolio with one of the more mature operators such as SUM or RYM imo.

[Beagle]

Terrible share with very dim prospects, I think sellers should smash the bid at $1.01 :D

[BlackPeter]

Terrible share with very dim prospects, I think sellers should smash the bid at $1.01 :D

Agreed. Suppose you want as well to pick up some more below $1 - do you :D?

[couta1]

Terrible share with very dim prospects, I think sellers should smash the bid at $1.01 :D I'd like that;)

[Benny1]

Me Too !!!:t_up:

[BlackPeter]

Shocking sales depth ... I think we spooked the sellers with our comments :t_down:

Come on guys - I am sure we can do better: Just imagine what terrible things the gummit can do to retirement villages and age care providers. Sure - they started with the young people and with housing (I guess they can't be everywhere at once - can they) - and look at EVO (child care) and STU, FBU, MPG what Labors attention means for the industry.

Surely - age care must be next :p.

[Ggcc]

I would not invest in this share no growth prospects.......... Does that help?

[janner]

I would not invest in this share no growth prospects.......... Does that help?

No.. Your reason for saying that might ..


Disc. Mini holding.

[winner69]

It’ll be $2 by Christmas

Certain as .....winner says BUY

Always a good contrarian sign

[couta1]

It’ll be $2 by Christmas

Certain as .....winner says BUY

Always a good contrarian sign Just running majorly ahead of yourself there winner, what you mearnt to say was, it will be $2 by Christmas 2020.

[Beagle]

Gosh look what I started and now the bid above $1.01 is even stronger :( That'll teach me not to start silly barking !

[Ggcc]

No.. Your reason for saying that might ..


Disc. Mini holding.
Positive news it goes down negative it goes up 😁

[janner]

Positive news it goes down negative it goes up ��

Research is better than news IMHO..

The retirement industry is on a roll. With the wind at it's back.

[winner69]

I heard OCA was going to 'break out' once it breached this 101 resitance or whatever its called

Still waiting for that 'break out' ....do punters just make stuff like that to give them themselves the warm fuzzies ...and hope

[Joshuatree]

No one makes predictions(or as many) like you do w69, but all good fun ehh , not to be taken seriously:)

[couta1]

I heard OCA was going to 'break out' once it breached this 101 resitance or whatever its called

Still waiting for that 'break out' ....do punters just make stuff like that to give them themselves the warm fuzzies ...and hope It has broken out, it was $1.03 this morning and will probably go up tomorrow off the back of the ARV result, but don't get too excited because then it's going to break down again back to $1 over the next while Lol.

[Hectorplains]

It has broken out, it was $1.03 this morning and will probably go up tomorrow off the back of the ARV result, but don't get too excited because then it's going to break down again back to $1 over the next while Lol.

Too true. The prevailing narrative of retirement stocks being grossly under valued by the market has been in play on here for 12 months or more. Are we at the point where there is acceptance that they offer a good entry point but with little chance of exponential share price growth (sheesh, look at the nature of the product. These ain't oil plays) in the short to medium term? At the very least, the SUM puns have surely run their course... please.

[Lawstudent05]

I just heard on the radio, is OCA reporting at some point this week? I think Thursday?

[winner69]

I just heard on the radio, is OCA reporting at some point this week? I think Thursday?

Financial year ends 31st May so no full year results this week

Might be giving out some good news ....share price needs something to shock it out of its malaise ...all the hype on here ain’t done anything for months months .....not guite a dog but close to it.

[Beagle]

Financial year ends 31st May so no full year results this week

Might be giving out some good news ....share price needs something to shock it out of its malaise ...all the hype on here ain’t done anything for months months .....not guite a dog but close to it.

Its a sleepy one but looks to have good breeding so might bark up a storm when it awakes. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=jS0BVaXAInI

[Lawstudent05]

Thanks guys, will be interesting to see how ARV goes tomorrow and MFT

[Lawstudent05]

Another push to 1.04, is this off Arvidas response?

[couta1]

Another push to 1.04, is this off Arvidas response? Sure is as they are birds of a feather, however the overhang will cap any rise in the meantime.

[Maverick]

Sure is as they are birds of a feather, however the overhang will cap any rise in the meantime.
That simple response is underwritten with great understanding. Couta , you are
spot on. As long as we can all live another 1 year then this is "money for nothing" Mark Kn.

[huxley]

I think we’re finally onto something here guys - All that waiting and here we go! :) :)

[Beagle]

Tempted to think that we might have the early signs of a breakout looking at the chart but until that overhang is dealt with...
Been a good year though. Listed about one year ago at 79 cps and up 31% since then.
Second year might see similar gains too in my opinion but not until they dive down first to $1.01 to give me a fill with my buy order :D

[Lawstudent05]

Hi Guys, what do you mean by overhang?

[Joshuatree]

Hey JT

The last annual report can be downloaded by going to the investor centre on OCA's website. Macquarie roughly hold 57% and the escrow arrangement is in place until the first business day after OCA releases it's results for the year ended 31 May 2018. Last year the results were released on July 27th.

Here you go. the overhang is what Maq will do with their shareholding after the escrow period(cant sell during this).

[warren]

Here you go. the overhang is what Maq will do with their shareholding after the escrow period(cant sell during this).

A rumor is that Maq fimly believe their portion is worth a min of $2.50 and they aint selling.
Nor would I if I were them!
100 mill+ profit in 1st year!
Paying close to 5% in 1st year!
1 billion + in assets!.
OCA Browns Bay and Milford are gorgeous---go have a look.
Liz and Earl and the new joker all beavering away.
Nope---if I was Maq I would be a nutcase to sell.

[couta1]

The trouble is at the moment it's just a rumour Warren and the market wants certainty.

[Lawstudent05]

Hi Team,

Sorry another question, "Macquarie roughly hold 57% and the escrow arrangement is in place until the first business day after OCA releases it's results for the year ended 31 May 2018. Last year the results were released on July 27th."

What does this mean in laymans terms. Does this mean they cannot sell until that date?

[couta1]

Hi Team,

Sorry another question, "Macquarie roughly hold 57% and the escrow arrangement is in place until the first business day after OCA releases it's results for the year ended 31 May 2018. Last year the results were released on July 27th."

What does this mean in laymans terms. Does this mean they cannot sell until that date?

Your onto it.

[Beagle]

Hi Team,

Sorry another question, "Macquarie roughly hold 57% and the escrow arrangement is in place until the first business day after OCA releases it's results for the year ended 31 May 2018. Last year the results were released on July 27th."

What does this mean in laymans terms. Does this mean they cannot sell until that date?



Yes that's exactly what it means.

LOL Warren your enthusiasm is like a breath of fresh air. Doubt it will do anything for the SP though.

[Joshuatree]

Hi Team,

Sorry another question, "Macquarie roughly hold 57% and the escrow arrangement is in place until the first business day after OCA releases it's results for the year ended 31 May 2018. Last year the results were released on July 27th."


What does this mean in laymans terms. Does this mean they cannot sell until that date?




It basically means some of us are well hung but with the falling knives atm maybe for not much longer.:eek2::p atpit

[Food4Thought]

The Final Countdown

https://youtu.be/9jK-NcRmVcw

It is getting exciting :)

Flip the coin

[winner69]

Bit of TA .....just as well this time is different

[Joshuatree]

F4T,you are sentenced to 2 months confinement in a falling knife proof straitjacket and helmet with that execrable, sickly sentimental MOR song on repeat 24 hours a day. All the best for OCA though, IPO holder here.:D

[warren]

[QUOTE=warren;716546]I know I know I know.
That’s why I rolled out the facts behind their view !

[Food4Thought]

I am a very happy owner and it can go down a bit and then up. Many reasons I see this with a favourble share to own. Off course biased because I am deeply invested. It's a long play with favourable mid term opportunities. Happy holding

[Ggcc]

I am a very happy owner and it can go down a bit and then up. Many reasons I see this with a favourble share to own. Off course biased because I am deeply invested. It's a long play with favourable mid term opportunities. Happy holding
I am also a very happy holder with a ++ size holding. This is my retirement fund and I will hold 20+ year unless something drastically changes. Also have Summerset which is almost 100% up on when I purchased. I find these two fantastic value and do see SUM catching up to RYM sp very quickly. Couta may disagree and his knowledge is great on these companies, but within 5 years Summerset will surpass RYM unless share splits occur....... if not sooner

[trader_jackson]

$1.05 now - that is like pretty high stuff
As high as it was pre half year results
Pretty sure we won't see below $1 again, then again I've said this so many times only to see it just dip under it by a fraction I probably shouldn't be so sure

[winner69]

Bit of TA .....just as well this time is different

So the rocket has blasted off .....

[Food4Thought]

...it has moved. A 1-2 cent + movement per month is fine by me.

[Beagle]

Yes if this is going to generate 30% growth or thereabouts per annum then a 2 cps movement per month is justified and seeing as they're reporting next month the coming month or two could be a LOT more than that. This time I think TJ has this right and we're very unlikely to see <$1 again.

[hogie]

You guys always get too excited about a OCA ... unfortunately like viagra the effects seem to have worn off and it's gone back down again now =P

[winner69]

...it has moved. A 1-2 cent + movement per month is fine by me.

It was $1.05 at end of December 2017

In spite of all the good news and good guidance it’s only $1.03

Hardly 1 or 2 cents a month is it ....but suppose patience is a virtue ...a real virtue

[Beagle]

It was $1.04 at end of December 2017

In spite of all the good news and good guidance it’s only $1.03

Hardly 1 or 2 cents a month is it ....but suppose patience is a virtue ...a real virtue

I guess the question is was December the anomaly or is now the anomalous price fix ? I would strongly argue now especially given the strength of the sector since December (SUM was only about $5 back then by way of example). The other thing is the stock has definitely been de-risked as the company have confirmed guidance recently.
Zooming out and looking at the big picture since it listed a year ago at 79 cps its up exactly 24 cents since then = 2 cents per month but clearly not in a linear manner :)
My gut tells me this is VERY cheap for this sector seeing the PE's its peer group are trading on are much higher and their SP performance has been vastly better in the last six months. Further, OCA's late stage care reputation is second to none and that includes RYM.
I topped up with a few more today. Forward PE, (soon to be trailing PE) of just 12 is very very good value. Patient investors will be well rewarded in the medium to long term in my opinion.

[winner69]

It was a $1.03 at end of last August (seeing we talking monthly prices)

To get a sector (peers) average PE there has to be a few below average and OCA is one of those. Looks like OCA has been awarded the label of a sector laggard....hard label to break free from

I’ll give it another week ..or two

[Beagle]

Don't forget mate that ARV had a nice run-up of just on 10% just before their result announcement. Might we see the same thing in late July with OCA ?

[Beagle]

I think 1 cent north per week average, for the next 7 weeks, (not necessarily in a steady straight line :) ), is quite possible between now and report date in late July.

[winner69]

RYM currently $10.30 with OCA at $1.03

OCA about right at this price

..

That was back in early Jan

Couts and me reckon RYM:SUM:OCA shareprice ratio should be about 10:5:1

Was true back in January ....but not now for OCA

Been a bit slack in spite of all the good news

OCA should be $1.20 by know ...and Beagle thinks $1,12 in seven weeks time pretty good

Will it ever catch up ...or will it just prove that the Winner Couts Theorem is a load of **** by always being a laggard.

[JayRiggs]

Given ARV and MET are trading around 16 times current underlying earnings, I reckon OCA should be on a similar multiple and reach $1.35 very very soon!