OCA - Oceania Group - retirement villages

[Joh13]

im getting back on track now about OCA

im not a great believer in instrinsic value stuff, obviously you are based on your very large investment in OCA
perhap's you may share with us your workings on how you valued the company to achieve your over $1 valuation.


anyway why we wait for joh fundamental valuation analysis here's a take on the technical's


after posting lows around 68c it punched up to 84c , currently it has found support at 74c which was roughly 61.8% retracement level down from 84c and has pivoted up from this level which implies 74c is also pivot support
going forward if we take out 79c would be considered bullish short term
on a optiimistic note today is quarter end which hopefully may attract some additional buying , a close over 80c would look good on a weekly chart , a close over 84c would be great on a mthly and quarterly chart

of course technical analysis can be viewed in the same light as instrinsic valuation ie garbage in garbage out lol

I fully acknowledge that we all have our unique investment philosophies and strategies. I've always been more inclined towards fundamental analysis and intrinsic value estimation, I appreciate the insights provided by technical analysis, and incorporate both.

Regarding my valuation of OCA, it's rooted in my belief in the company's long-term growth prospects. The substantial investment I've made in OCA is a testament to my confidence in the future growth of this company. I consider factors such as the forecasted earnings growth dividend yield, and insider buying among others. My valuation also takes into account the broader context of the industry, baby boomer growth, and the potential for future growth and expansion. However, I must admit that this is a subjective process and it's entirely possible for two investors to arrive at different valuations based on the same set of data.

As for the technical analysis, your points about the stock's recent price movements and key support and resistance levels are well taken. Indeed, the stock has shown some resilience at the 74c level, and breaking through the 79c level could indeed be a bullish sign.

As with any analysis method, both intrinsic valuation and technical analysis have their limitations and should be used as part of a broader, holistic approach to investing. I completely agree with your "garbage in, garbage out" sentiment - the quality of our analysis is only as good as the data and assumptions we use.

In the end, whether we're fundamental investors, technical traders, or a bit of both, we're all here to make informed decisions and, profitable investments...time will tell.

[Curly]

I fully acknowledge that we all have our unique investment philosophies and strategies. I've always been more inclined towards fundamental analysis and intrinsic value estimation, I appreciate the insights provided by technical analysis, and incorporate both.

Regarding my valuation of Oceania Healthcare, it's rooted in my belief in the company's long-term growth prospects. The substantial investment I've made in OCA is a testament to my confidence in the future growth of this company. I consider factors such as the forecasted earnings growth dividend yield, and insider buying among others. My valuation also takes into account the broader context of the industry, baby boomer growth, and the potential for future growth and expansion. However, I must admit that this is a subjective process and it's entirely possible for two investors to arrive at different valuations based on the same set of data.

As for the technical analysis, your points about the stock's recent price movements and key support and resistance levels are well taken. Indeed, the stock has shown some resilience at the 74c level, and breaking through the 79c level could indeed be a bullish sign.

As with any analysis method, both intrinsic valuation and technical analysis have their limitations and should be used as part of a broader, holistic approach to investing. I completely agree with your "garbage in, garbage out" sentiment - the quality of our analysis is only as good as the data and assumptions we use.

In the end, whether we're fundamental investors, technical traders, or a bit of both, we're all here to make informed decisions and, profitable investments...time will tell.
Nice post Joh. Could not agree more. On top of that, the icing on the cake is your gut feeling, (hunch) for getting in or getting out. That has served me well many times. It factors in mood of markets, current Government and pending legislative, world events and markets, fear. Covid scare 2020 classic example. Timing and patience crucial.

[ValueNZ]

Nice post Joh. Could not agree more. On top of that, the icing on the cake is your gut feeling, (hunch) for getting in or getting out. That has served me well many times. It factors in mood of markets, current Government and pending legislative, world events and markets, fear. Covid scare 2020 classic example. Timing and patience crucial.
If you could time markets consistently you'd quickly find yourself the richest man on the planet. The main reason for most active investors underperformance compared to index funds, is that most people jump in and out of investments and are usually wrong to do so. The average investor holds shares for 5.5 months, absolute insanity.

[SailorRob]

I fully acknowledge that we all have our unique investment philosophies and strategies. I've always been more inclined towards fundamental analysis and intrinsic value estimation, I appreciate the insights provided by technical analysis, and incorporate both.

Regarding my valuation of OCA, it's rooted in my belief in the company's long-term growth prospects. The substantial investment I've made in OCA is a testament to my confidence in the future growth of this company. I consider factors such as the forecasted earnings growth dividend yield, and insider buying among others. My valuation also takes into account the broader context of the industry, baby boomer growth, and the potential for future growth and expansion. However, I must admit that this is a subjective process and it's entirely possible for two investors to arrive at different valuations based on the same set of data.

As for the technical analysis, your points about the stock's recent price movements and key support and resistance levels are well taken. Indeed, the stock has shown some resilience at the 74c level, and breaking through the 79c level could indeed be a bullish sign.

As with any analysis method, both intrinsic valuation and technical analysis have their limitations and should be used as part of a broader, holistic approach to investing. I completely agree with your "garbage in, garbage out" sentiment - the quality of our analysis is only as good as the data and assumptions we use.

In the end, whether we're fundamental investors, technical traders, or a bit of both, we're all here to make informed decisions and, profitable investments...time will tell.


A

Billion

Dollars

Free

Money

where is that in the valuation

[SailorRob]

Nice post Joh. Could not agree more. On top of that, the icing on the cake is your gut feeling, (hunch) for getting in or getting out. That has served me well many times. It factors in mood of markets, current Government and pending legislative, world events and markets, fear. Covid scare 2020 classic example. Timing and patience crucial.


Ohhhh boy

Another person who can successfully time the market.

Your hunch old son, is worth hundreds of billions, actually Trillions of dollars!

Why are you not on NZ rich list?

Impossible not to be if you have had this ability for some time.

[SailorRob]

If you could time markets consistently you'd quickly find yourself the richest man on the planet. The main reason for most active investors underperformance compared to index funds, is that most people jump in and out of investments and are usually wrong to do so. The average investor holds shares for 5.5 months, absolute insanity.


Correct. His hunch is BS.

But prove me wrong, let us know in advance about your future 'Hunches'

Or provide a record of past ones that are statistically significant.

[SailorRob]

The fact that you can sniff all the BS and shysters at your age ValueNZ is a bloody breath of fresh air.

For the rest, have a think about things occasionally.

Consider what it would mean to be able to hunch yourself in and out of OCA and what that would mean for percentage returns.

[RTM]

If you could time markets consistently you'd quickly find yourself the richest man on the planet. The main reason for most active investors underperformance compared to index funds, is that most people jump in and out of investments and are usually wrong to do so. The average investor holds shares for 5.5 months, absolute insanity.

I don’t disbelieve you VNZ, but I’d love to see some data that this is based on.
What is an average investor ?

[mistaTea]

I don’t disbelieve you VNZ, but I’d love to see some data that this is based on.
What is an average investor ?

I remember reading some stats about most managed funds holding shares for about that length of time.

Not sure about the average retail investor though - might be worse!

[ValueNZ]

I don’t disbelieve you VNZ, but I’d love to see some data that this is based on.
What is an average investor ?
That statistic was from a yahoo article (https://finance.yahoo.com/news/average-stock-holding-period-121123957.html) but I think they based it off a 2020 stat which would be quite a bit lower than it is now.
This article (https://awealthofcommonsense.com/2023/02/buy-hold-is-dead-long-live-buy-hold/) might be closer to the truth at 10 months, but regardless of whether its 5.5 months or 10 months it's still an absurdly low period of holding.

[Ggcc]

https://www.nzherald.co.nz/nz/aucklands-wesley-rest-home-shuts-doors-suddenly/75QAY4G7YJGWZCIVS7QCTQYJDQ/

Something sounds fishy

[SailorRob]

I don’t disbelieve you VNZ, but I’d love to see some data that this is based on.
What is an average investor ?


I think JP Morgan's quarterly guide to the markets contains the figures, out of America of course.

Even Seth Klarman was talking about it in his recent interview, not sure he gave a figure.

[winner69]

https://www.nzherald.co.nz/nz/aucklands-wesley-rest-home-shuts-doors-suddenly/75QAY4G7YJGWZCIVS7QCTQYJDQ/



Something sounds fishy

Terrible state of affairs for the poor souls

Put them up in The Helier at cheap rates, if not for free

[mistaTea]

https://www.nzherald.co.nz/nz/aucklands-wesley-rest-home-shuts-doors-suddenly/75QAY4G7YJGWZCIVS7QCTQYJDQ/

Something sounds fishy

Someone is lying that’s for sure!

[Fortunecookie]

https://www.nzherald.co.nz/nz/aucklands-wesley-rest-home-shuts-doors-suddenly/75QAY4G7YJGWZCIVS7QCTQYJDQ/

Something sounds fishy

Its in no one interest to close up so quickly. I wonder if the nursing shortage is having a effect. It doesn't make sense that they could not agree to close up in say 6 months.

[SailorRob]

https://www.nzherald.co.nz/nz/aucklands-wesley-rest-home-shuts-doors-suddenly/75QAY4G7YJGWZCIVS7QCTQYJDQ/

Something sounds fishy


Should be bloody easy to prove who is lying.

Not a good look that's for sure.

[SailorRob]

Terrible state of affairs for the poor souls

Put them up in The Helier at cheap rates, if not for free


Given the information we have, if it's accurate, something like this should be considered.

[Dlownz]

Yeah someone's lying about the situation.
I'm actually guessing the truth is because of the government's failure to increase care costs Oceania has chosen this facility as a sacrificial lamb. To show the government if they don't do something soon bigger facilities will close as well.

[Baa_Baa]

Will be interesting to know, given that we all know pure rest home care is unprofitable, and this Wesley Care Centre is an operating lease providing pure care services, i.e. Oceania will be making a loss on operations, whether they are just quiting the loss, or some other reason.

Heartless it may appear to be, but right there is the ethical conflict you have as a shareholder, whether you're happy to make a loss at the Wesley Care Centre or cut the losses by not continuing the operating lease. Dig deeper into how many other properties are pure care, operating lease arrangements.

I'm not sure how I feel about this yet, as a shareholder. I'd like to know a bit more about the circumstances for this decision. I'd also like to know what arrangements OCA have to relocate their residents.

[winner69]

Yeah someone's lying about the situation.
I'm actually guessing the truth is because of the government's failure to increase care costs Oceania has chosen this facility as a sacrificial lamb. To show the government if they don't do something soon bigger facilities will close as well.

If the facility is a ‘sacrificial lamb’ is there a term/phrase for those poor souls being turfed out to prove a point.

[Ggcc]

Will be interesting to know, given that we all know pure rest home care is unprofitable, and this Wesley Care Centre is an operating lease providing pure care services, i.e. Oceania will be making a loss on operations, whether they are just quiting the loss, or some other reason.

Heartless it may appear to be, but right there is the ethical conflict you have as a shareholder, whether you're happy to make a loss at the Wesley Care Centre or cut the losses by not continuing the operating lease. Dig deeper into how many other properties are pure care, operating lease arrangements.

I'm not sure how I feel about this yet, as a shareholder. I'd like to know a bit more about the circumstances for this decision. I'd also like to know what arrangements OCA have to relocate their residents.
The last bit is crucial for me as well. Even if they are not the reason for the shutdown OCA have a 100% ethical responsibility to look after their paying guests.

I own shares in OCA

[Habits]

Terrible state of affairs for the poor souls

Put them up in The Helier at cheap rates, if not for free

The catchphrase on the sign on the wall says "Oceania Believe in Better"

Heading to The Helier would fit with that

[SailorRob]

Will be interesting to know, given that we all know pure rest home care is unprofitable, and this Wesley Care Centre is an operating lease providing pure care services, i.e. Oceania will be making a loss on operations, whether they are just quiting the loss, or some other reason.

Heartless it may appear to be, but right there is the ethical conflict you have as a shareholder, whether you're happy to make a loss at the Wesley Care Centre or cut the losses by not continuing the operating lease. Dig deeper into how many other properties are pure care, operating lease arrangements.

I'm not sure how I feel about this yet, as a shareholder. I'd like to know a bit more about the circumstances for this decision. I'd also like to know what arrangements OCA have to relocate their residents.

Good points.

You cut the loss, you have to. But you do it as ethically as possible and you protect the brand. No way did this need to happen with 2 months notice.

[Baa_Baa]

The catchphrase on the sign on the wall says "Oceania Believe in Better"

Heading to The Helier would fit with that

That's an idiotic and stupid thing to say. Winner69 is, as usual, stirring the pot. I'm not sure why, but it's not unusual for him? to be sarcastic. At his age you'd think he would grow up and engage in productive discussion.

The Helier is not a rest home, it's luxury retirement apartments at the very top end of NZ choices for retirees' who can afford millions to get into it, with care close at hand. The comparison is ridiculous.

The Wesley Care Centre is a bog standard rest home, on a lease arrangement, just standard one bed rooms rest home, some 'premium' (that means a toilet and shower - or ensuite if you like), with communal resident space for the mobile residents, and hospital and dementia care for the less so. Just the type of rest home that is prevalent across the listed and not listed RV sector that is so vulnerable to the governments' under funding of rest home care.

Many of the residents will be on the government funding, some will be paying for it themselves if they failed the assets means test. But it's still just the most basic of care facilities, which as we know, is not viable for Oceania, or for that matter, any listed RV aged care provider.

It might be confronting if it turns out that Oceania quit Wesley just because it's not profitable, but it's an important business decision, a careful balance of good business, shareholders expectations not to sustain unprofitable properties, against a considered and realistic exit plan for residents.

[SailorRob]

That's an idiotic and stupid thing to say. Winner69 is, as usual, stirring the pot. I'm not sure why, but it's not unusual for him? to be sarcastic. At his age you'd think he would grow up and engage in productive discussion.

The Helier is not a rest home, it's luxury retirement apartments at the very top end of NZ choices for retirees' who can afford millions to get into it, with care close at hand. The comparison is ridiculous.

The Wesley Care Centre is a bog standard rest home, on a lease arrangement, just standard one bed rooms rest home, some 'premium' (that means a toilet and shower - or ensuite if you like), with communal resident space for the mobile residents, and hospital and dementia care for the less so. Just the type of rest home that is prevalent across the listed and not listed RV sector that is so vulnerable to the governments' under funding of rest home care.

Many of the residents will be on the government funding, some will be paying for it themselves if they failed the assets means test. But it's still just the most basic of care facilities, which as we know, is not viable for Oceania, or for that matter, any listed RV aged care provider.

It might be confronting if it turns out that Oceania quit Wesley just because it's not profitable, but it's an important business decision, a careful balance of good business, shareholders expectations not to sustain unprofitable properties, against a considered and realistic exit plan for residents.




Exceptional post.

[Baa_Baa]

Good points.

You cut the loss, you have to. But you do it as ethically as possible and you protect the brand. No way did this need to happen with 2 months notice.

Agree, but we don't know the whole story yet do we, both parties are reporting conflicting statements. I assume it will become clear very quickly where each party stands, as especially Oceania have an obligation to disclose, whereas the landlord has no obligation.

I only hope that the exit from Wesley, if that's what's happening, is considerate of the residents. Having had parents in these types of facilities, it would be traumatic to have to move, let alone to have no where to go and be turfed out .. after all, they're way beyond making decisions for themselves.

I think the ball is in Ocenia's court to explain what's really going on and what they're doing about it. So far it's not looking good, but I suspect there's a decent story behind it.

[Baa_Baa]

Sometimes and this might one of them, it would be helpful if the discussion wasn't flippant, cynical, obtuse or ignorant.

When something important happens, with our investments, an open honest and thoughtful discussion is helpful, whereas all the game playing nonsense is not.

Hopefully we can discuss this openly and honestly and form our opinions from it, otherwise the discussion is of no use.

OCA have a choice here, we'll see soon how they respond,.

[SailorRob]

Agree, but we don't know the whole story yet do we, both parties are reporting conflicting statements. I assume it will become clear very quickly where each party stands, as especially Oceania have an obligation to disclose, whereas the landlord has no obligation.

I only hope that the exit from Wesley, if that's what's happening, is considerate of the residents. Having had parents in these types of facilities, it would be traumatic to have to move, let alone to have no where to go and be turfed out .. after all, they're way beyond making decisions for themselves.

I think the ball is in Ocenia's court to explain what's really going on and what they're doing about it. So far it's not looking good, but I suspect there's a decent story behind it.


For sure, there will be more to it.

Good to see all posters are concerned with our customers plight here too.

Opportunity here for OCA to show the country who they really are and find a great resolution.

[Habits]

That's an idiotic and stupid thing to say. Winner69 is, as usual, stirring the pot. I'm not sure why, but it's not unusual for him? to be sarcastic. At his age you'd think he would grow up and engage in productive discussion.

The Helier is not a rest home, it's luxury retirement apartments at the very top end of NZ choices for retirees' who can afford millions to get into it, with care close at hand. The comparison is ridiculous.

The Wesley Care Centre is a bog standard rest home, on a lease arrangement, just standard one bed rooms rest home, some 'premium' (that means a toilet and shower - or ensuite if you like), with communal resident space for the mobile residents, and hospital and dementia care for the less so. Just the type of rest home that is prevalent across the listed and not listed RV sector that is so vulnerable to the governments' under funding of rest home care.

Many of the residents will be on the government funding, some will be paying for it themselves if they failed the assets means test. But it's still just the most basic of care facilities, which as we know, is not viable for Oceania, or for that matter, any listed RV aged care provider.

It might be confronting if it turns out that Oceania quit Wesley just because it's not profitable, but it's an important business decision, a careful balance of good business, shareholders expectations not to sustain unprofitable properties, against a considered and realistic exit plan for residents.




Tell us how you really feel

[Balance]

The true measure of the culture of a company, country or person is how they treat the needy, not how they pander to the privileged and entitled.

Oceania better have a good explanation for not wanting to extend the lease by another 6 months to at least give all the residents decent time and notice to arrange alternate arrangements.

[ValueNZ]

Will be interesting to know, given that we all know pure rest home care is unprofitable, and this Wesley Care Centre is an operating lease providing pure care services, i.e. Oceania will be making a loss on operations, whether they are just quiting the loss, or some other reason.

Heartless it may appear to be, but right there is the ethical conflict you have as a shareholder, whether you're happy to make a loss at the Wesley Care Centre or cut the losses by not continuing the operating lease. Dig deeper into how many other properties are pure care, operating lease arrangements.

I'm not sure how I feel about this yet, as a shareholder. I'd like to know a bit more about the circumstances for this decision. I'd also like to know what arrangements OCA have to relocate their residents.
Above all else, Oceania needs to be acting in the best interest of shareholders which means cutting losses where necessary. However from a game theory perspective it seems likely that the damage to the brand will cost more to Oceania than any losses they have avoided by not continuing the lease for another six months. So in my opinion Oceania probably would have been better renewing the lease for a further six months and continued running the rest home at a loss.

[ronaldson]

Interesting article, and comments on this thread. It seems clear that in any event closure was required not later than end February 2024. The concerns articulated by/on behalf of residents would simply be deferred but still arise. And as occupancy fell incrementally during any longer wind-up period the extent of ongoing losses would magnify over the additional period. So it doesn't make sense to do that. Also the public health system is ultimately responsible for these residents, and will facilitate alternatives even if these are regarded as less convenient/suitable.

Remember Mercy Parklands closure in Ellerslie recently - same problem for those affected, but it happened and the cloud of concern has dissipated. For sure folk were not happy, but they managed just as these residents and their families will need to do. It sounds heartless but it is realistic.

I noted Oceania can only accommodate up to 30 out of 50 or so in other of its existing local facilities and obviously these are some distance away in other suburbs so the families in particular are discomforted. I feel for them but care for the elderly in this country stands on a precipice currently. If it were not for the listed RV/Care Centre operators the Government would be experiencing a massive fail!

[Maverick]

It's nice to see so many excellent posts here now there is something to chew on.

It is highly relevant to point out OCAs newly delivered EDEN has 69 caresuites and is 250 meters down the road.
It's a no brainer OCA want out of the leased facility. The old rest home ,leased model is way off what OCA is about. It will be breaking even on at best ( as per Baabaa's well laid out posts).

Then Ronaldsons post above raises good points about the ecomic realities of winding down the operation. Both $ practically and the fact its going to happen sooner or later anyway. Folk are still going to be upset either way.

As far as bad press goes , these things blow over really quickly. Does anybody remember or even care now that OCA voluntarily paid the covid subsidy back and ARV didnt?

As a shareholder I'm very pleased with the move to exit the lease arrangement now OCA's Eden is mature.
The intentional, chronic underfunding of the industry is wholly the government's fault and it's the NZ taxpayer who needs to foot the cost, not OCAs shareholders.

The only question left is the speed and ethical way it is being done. Maybe 2 months is perfectly sufficient to relocate 50 folk?
I've no idea but would be very interested to hear Just a Kiwis opinion?

[Fortunecookie]

Some good points, Ronaldson and Maverick. I was somewhat outraged, but I can now see it differently.

It is a challenge to strike a balance at all times over a transition period. Perhaps management have a good idea how it will play out and to also minimise impact. It reminds me my very own employer have a strategy to implement if a certain unlikely event happens. Perhaps OCA are no different, they have considered all possible scenarios and ready to manage it according to how it plays out.

[justakiwi]

I was thinking about this last night. My thoughts are:

1.Oceania has said they can re-house 30 of those 50 residents, elsewhere
2.That leaves 20 beds to find somewhere - we do not know how many of those beds are standard rest home level, hospital level, or dementia level beds
3.Beds only become available when someone dies, moves to a higher level of care, moves to a different location OR, when brand new beds come on line (anywhere - with any provider servicing the area)
4. The word will have already gone out, to all local providers, seeking assistance to re-locate the remaining 20 residents - some will have respite beds available, which could possibly be used, at least temporarily

I was initially concerned about the two month time-line, but the more I think about it, the more I realise it makes bugger all difference. If there are beds available, residents can go now/soon. If there are no beds available right now, hopefully there will be at least some in a week or two, or a month. I have no idea how many providers or beds are available in this location, but I imagine there are many more than where I live, so the overall "pool" of beds is going to be much greater than it would be down here. I think they have a good shot at finding beds for all 20 residents, within the two months time-frame. Dementia beds could be an issue however, if they are D3 (secure unit) beds.

My thinking would be, families and OCA will work together to find solutions, starting right now. Residents will move into beds as they become available - and I imagine the 30 residents OCA can accommodate elsewhere right now, will move very quickly. Having said that, you have to also consider the logistics of reducing the numbers in dribs and drabs - staffing becomes an issue if that drags on too long (caregivers, cleaners, cooks, housekeepers etc).

Time will tell and hopefully we will hear more soon, but my gut feeling is there is zero point hanging out beyond the two months. It would make zero difference to the availability of existing beds in the area - it is always impossible to accurately predict when beds might be free.

It is more complicated than it sounds - kind of.



It's nice to see so many excellent posts here now there is something to chew on.

It is highly relevant to point out OCAs newly delivered EDEN has 69 caresuites and is 250 meters down the road.
It's a no brainer OCA want out of the leased facility. The old rest home ,leased model is way off what OCA is about. It will be breaking even on at best ( as per Baabaa's well laid out posts).

Then Ronaldsons post above raises good points about the ecomic realities of winding down the operation. Both $ practically and the fact its going to happen sooner or later anyway. Folk are still going to be upset either way.

As far as bad press goes , these things blow over really quickly. Does anybody remember or even care now that OCA voluntarily paid the covid subsidy back and ARV didnt?

As a shareholder I'm very pleased with the move to exit the lease arrangement now OCA's Eden is mature.
The intentional, chronic underfunding of the industry is wholly the government's fault and it's the NZ taxpayer who needs to foot the cost, not OCAs shareholders.

The only question left is the speed and ethical way it is being done. Maybe 2 months is perfectly sufficient to relocate 50 folk?
I've no idea but would be very interested to hear Just a Kiwis opinion?

[davflaws]

Above all else, Oceania needs to be acting in the best interest of shareholders .

Nah. Shareholders are major stakeholders, but theirs are not the only interests that should be considered. The residents and their rellies have a major stake, as does the community (through the DHB and the Govt.). IMO, the directors have a duty to consider these wider responsibilities.

disc: - Through no ones fault but my own, OCA is 56% of my portfolio @ $1.30 odd.

[SailorRob]

I was thinking about this last night. My thoughts are:

1.Oceania has said they can re-house 30 of those 50 residents, elsewhere
2.That leaves 20 beds to find somewhere - we do not know how many of those beds are standard rest home level, hospital level, or dementia level beds
3.Beds only become available when someone dies, moves to a higher level of care, moves to a different location OR, when brand new beds come on line (anywhere - with any provider servicing the area)
4. The word will have already gone out, to all local providers, seeking assistance to re-locate the remaining 20 residents - some will have respite beds available, which could possibly be used, at least temporarily

I was initially concerned about the two month time-line, but the more I think about it, the more I realise it makes bugger all difference. If there are beds available, residents can go now/soon. If there are no beds available right now, hopefully there will be at least some in a week or two, or a month. I have no idea how many providers or beds are available in this location, but I imagine there are many more than where I live, so the overall "pool" of beds is going to be much greater than it would be down here. I think they have a good shot at finding beds for all 20 residents, within the two months time-frame. Dementia beds could be an issue however, if they are D3 (secure unit) beds.

My thinking would be, families and OCA will work together to find solutions, starting right now. Residents will move into beds as they become available - and I imagine the 30 residents OCA can accommodate elsewhere right now, will move very quickly. Having said that, you have to also consider the logistics of reducing the numbers in dribs and drabs - staffing becomes an issue if that drags on too long (caregivers, cleaners, cooks, housekeepers etc).

Time will tell and hopefully we will hear more soon, but my gut feeling is there is zero point hanging out beyond the two months. It would make zero difference to the availability of existing beds in the area - it is always impossible to accurately predict when beds might be free.

It is more complicated than it sounds - kind of.


Excellent information thanks.

[SailorRob]

Nah. Shareholders are major stakeholders, but theirs are not the only interests that should be considered. The residents and their rellies have a major stake, as does the community (through the DHB and the Govt.). IMO, the directors have a duty to consider these wider responsibilities.

disc: - Through no ones fault but my own, OCA is 56% of my portfolio @ $1.30 odd.


You're totally missing ValueNZ's point sport.

By acting in the best interest of shareholders you are by definition acting in the VERY best interest of your customers.

Of course the directors have duty to consider these other interests! That's how they make money.

By providing goods and services that free market participants CHOOSE to swap their own produce for using money to efficiently barter.

If they don't look after the residents and relatives then we don't have a business.

Always spend a few moments thinking beyond the first elementary level.

Shareholders interests are the ONLY interests that should be considered. This way everyone's interests are aligned, always exceptions but in general this is how our amazing world works.

If you're in business you act in your own best interest. Which is satisfying your customers better than anyone else can. Following applicable laws.

I find it stunning a lot of folk here are constantly schooled by a 17 year old.

[ValueNZ]

You're totally missing ValueNZ's point sport.

By acting in the best interest of shareholders you are by definition acting in the VERY best interest of your customers.

Of course the directors have duty to consider these other interests! That's how they make money.

By providing goods and services that free market participants CHOOSE to swap their own produce for using money to efficiently barter.

If they don't look after the residents and relatives then we don't have a business.

Always spend a few moments thinking beyond the first elementary level.

Shareholders interests are the ONLY interests that should be considered. This way everyone's interests are aligned, always exceptions but in general this is how our amazing world works.

If you're in business you act in your own best interest. Which is satisfying your customers better than anyone else can. Following applicable laws.

I find it stunning a lot of folk here are constantly schooled by a 17 year old.
Great post, exactly what I was thinking but I wouldn't have been able to explain it as well as you have.

[Curly]

I take the view that a problem is an opportunity facing the wrong way. One would hope the directors of the company will have thought through all the different outcomes and have the potential to come out with a win win for both residents and shareholders and in doing so enhance the brand. Time will tell. Media will always spin the click bait. I have faith OCA will right the ship. Seven day wonder.

[davflaws]

By acting in the best interest of shareholders you are by definition acting in the VERY best interest of your customers.

.

Phillip Morris?

[SailorRob]

Phillip Morris?


My understanding is that their ciggies are the best yep.

[SailorRob]

I take the view that a problem is an opportunity facing the wrong way. One would hope the directors of the company will have thought through all the different outcomes and have the potential to come out with a win win for both residents and shareholders and in doing so enhance the brand. Time will tell. Media will always spin the click bait. I have faith OCA will right the ship. Seven day wonder.


This seems like the logical outcome. As they also have skin in the game they will be fully focused on the best resolution for the Shareholders and of course the customers.

[jagger]

I LOVE it when I come across road cyclists riding 2 abreast.

All I hear about is ENTITLEMENT and RIGHTS all the time, usually from these types of people, but what I never hear about is obligations.

Putting aside the complete irrelevance of this comment, the intense irony in this comment is that the only person in this situation with an 'obligation' is the one ensconced inside hundreds-of-kilograms of metal to show a modicum of patience & pass safely.

shouldershrug.gif

[Walter]

From what I understand the church was going to punt the residents anyway, it's a timing issue. They "offered" a 6 month extension, we don't know the terms. My guess is that OCA think they can rehome in the 2 month time frame. I'm sure that the staff will be welcomed in other facilities.

[Bjauck]

Putting aside the complete irrelevance of this comment, the intense irony in this comment is that the only person in this situation with an 'obligation' is the one ensconced inside hundreds-of-kilograms of metal to show a modicum of patience & pass safely.

shouldershrug.gif This is off topic I know but I thought I would add a comment as it involves road user safety. The bike riders have obligations too.

Two people can ride next to each other as long as you don't hold back traffic. Ride in single file when going past vehicles such as parked cars

From Waka Kotahi
https://www.bikeready.govt.nz/adults/tips-for-everyday-bike-riding-beginners-to-advanced/road-rules-for-bike-riding/

[Mrbuyit]

Not taking the +6 month extension could just be a timing thing trying to avoid summer holidays, my real estate agent brother in law says nothing happens in his office in January. Probably the same to a certain extent with those shifting villages, lawyers will be at their beach houses in the coromandel.

Potential for maybe worse media headlines doing this stuff at Christmas time too?

[ronaldson]

It's nice to see so many excellent posts here now there is something to chew on.

It is highly relevant to point out OCAs newly delivered EDEN has 69 caresuites and is 250 meters down the road.
It's a no brainer OCA want out of the leased facility. The old rest home ,leased model is way off what OCA is about. It will be breaking even on at best ( as per Baabaa's well laid out posts).

Then Ronaldsons post above raises good points about the ecomic realities of winding down the operation. Both $ practically and the fact its going to happen sooner or later anyway. Folk are still going to be upset either way.

As far as bad press goes , these things blow over really quickly. Does anybody remember or even care now that OCA voluntarily paid the covid subsidy back and ARV didnt?

As a shareholder I'm very pleased with the move to exit the lease arrangement now OCA's Eden is mature.
The intentional, chronic underfunding of the industry is wholly the government's fault and it's the NZ taxpayer who needs to foot the cost, not OCAs shareholders.

The only question left is the speed and ethical way it is being done. Maybe 2 months is perfectly sufficient to relocate 50 folk?
I've no idea but would be very interested to hear Just a Kiwis opinion?

Maverick is on to it. I suggest you all google the Mt Eden Retirement Village and Care Centre at 22 View Road, Mt Eden - apartments, luxury care suites, rest home and hospital level care. Brand new Oceania facility. I bet most staff will be transferring there as well, along with those residents who can afford to do so.

Unconscionable for the so-called journalist not to reference this.

[winner69]

Maverick is on to it. I suggest you all google the Mt Eden Retirement Village and Care Centre at 22 View Road, Mt Eden - apartments, luxury care suites, rest home and hospital level care. Brand new Oceania facility. I bet most staff will be transferring there as well,[along with those residents who can afford to do so.

Unconscionable for the so-called journalist not to reference this.

…and those that can’t afford to transfer?

[justakiwi]

If Mt Eden provides rest home and hospital level care, residents currently receiving that level of care, will more than likely be receiving the government subsidy, and will continue to do so, if they transfer there.


…and those that can’t afford to transfer?

[Mel]

…and those that can’t afford to transfer?
I don't believe that OCA made a comment about this, but it would have been prudent for them to have mentioned their facility down the road - that would have taken a bit of the sting out of the story.

[Maverick]

I was thinking about this last night. My thoughts are:

1.Oceania has said they can re-house 30 of those 50 residents, elsewhere
2.That leaves 20 beds to find somewhere - we do not know how many of those beds are standard rest home level, hospital level, or dementia level beds
3.Beds only become available when someone dies, moves to a higher level of care, moves to a different location OR, when brand new beds come on line (anywhere - with any provider servicing the area)
4. The word will have already gone out, to all local providers, seeking assistance to re-locate the remaining 20 residents - some will have respite beds available, which could possibly be used, at least temporarily

I was initially concerned about the two month time-line, but the more I think about it, the more I realise it makes bugger all difference. If there are beds available, residents can go now/soon. If there are no beds available right now, hopefully there will be at least some in a week or two, or a month. I have no idea how many providers or beds are available in this location, but I imagine there are many more than where I live, so the overall "pool" of beds is going to be much greater than it would be down here. I think they have a good shot at finding beds for all 20 residents, within the two months time-frame. Dementia beds could be an issue however, if they are D3 (secure unit) beds.

My thinking would be, families and OCA will work together to find solutions, starting right now. Residents will move into beds as they become available - and I imagine the 30 residents OCA can accommodate elsewhere right now, will move very quickly. Having said that, you have to also consider the logistics of reducing the numbers in dribs and drabs - staffing becomes an issue if that drags on too long (caregivers, cleaners, cooks, housekeepers etc).

Time will tell and hopefully we will hear more soon, but my gut feeling is there is zero point hanging out beyond the two months. It would make zero difference to the availability of existing beds in the area - it is always impossible to accurately predict when beds might be free.

It is more complicated than it sounds - kind of.
Thankyou JAK for sharing your insights and experience. A very well thought out post.

It has been a surprisingly good 24 hours of hearing all these quality opinions especially from the more infrequent posters here. Share trader has been at it best with all these intelligent ideas/ opinions from different areas of expertise.

Seems like we are generally settled now that this is not a PR disaster or ethical issue we need to worry ourselves over. I'm sure the general NZ populace will around their watercoolers tomorrow only concerned about how much it cost to fill their cars up.

[Onemootpoint]

I was thinking about this last night. My thoughts are:

1.Oceania has said they can re-house 30 of those 50 residents, elsewhere
2.That leaves 20 beds to find somewhere - we do not know how many of those beds are standard rest home level, hospital level, or dementia level beds
3.Beds only become available when someone dies, moves to a higher level of care, moves to a different location OR, when brand new beds come on line (anywhere - with any provider servicing the area)
4. The word will have already gone out, to all local providers, seeking assistance to re-locate the remaining 20 residents - some will have respite beds available, which could possibly be used, at least temporarily

I was initially concerned about the two month time-line, but the more I think about it, the more I realise it makes bugger all difference. If there are beds available, residents can go now/soon. If there are no beds available right now, hopefully there will be at least some in a week or two, or a month. I have no idea how many providers or beds are available in this location, but I imagine there are many more than where I live, so the overall "pool" of beds is going to be much greater than it would be down here. I think they have a good shot at finding beds for all 20 residents, within the two months time-frame. Dementia beds could be an issue however, if they are D3 (secure unit) beds.

My thinking would be, families and OCA will work together to find solutions, starting right now. Residents will move into beds as they become available - and I imagine the 30 residents OCA can accommodate elsewhere right now, will move very quickly. Having said that, you have to also consider the logistics of reducing the numbers in dribs and drabs - staffing becomes an issue if that drags on too long (caregivers, cleaners, cooks, housekeepers etc).

Time will tell and hopefully we will hear more soon, but my gut feeling is there is zero point hanging out beyond the two months. It would make zero difference to the availability of existing beds in the area - it is always impossible to accurately predict when beds might be free.

It is more complicated than it sounds - kind of.

Excellent post. Thanks. A family member (not a holder) pointed out this article to me yesterday with concern for the residents. If you don’t mind I am forwarding this post a a few others to them.

[justakiwi]

No worries, but please make sure they know I'm not actually "in the know" re this situation. Just my own thoughts based on having some knowledge of the sector.

I do not for one minute believe that OCA will in any way, let these residents down. They are focused on care and they will be doing their utmost to assist families to find placements. OCA will not want to lose these families to other providers, so who knows, it may be that they will subsidise the cost temporarily for those 20 residents to be placed with other providers, until OCA can provide beds for them within their own facilities. That could be an option as once the lease expires, that money could be used for that purpose, in the short term. Plus, if OCA is receiving the government subsidy for any (or most) of them, they will want to retain that subsidy (and the resident) - so may simply pay another provider for the care, on a short term basis, until they can find a permanent bed. This is all just me mulling over the options I can see, but whether they are realistic/doable is something I do not know.

Maybe don't share this​ post with the family member though. I don't want to put that thought into their heads - just for us.


Excellent post. Thanks. A family member (not a holder) pointed out this article to me yesterday with concern for the residents. If you don’t mind I am forwarding this post a a few others to them.

[Onemootpoint]

All good, thanks JAK.

[Bjauck]

…
My thinking would be, families and OCA will work together to find solutions, starting right now… Thanks for your post. I know it will vary from home to home, but in your experience how many rest home or hospital level care home residents have no family or friends to intercede on their behalf?

[justakiwi]

Interestingly, very few. In fact, I can’t think of one resident who had no support from anyone. Most have children, but those who don’t, often have support from nephews and nieces, or close friends. Some have support through their church.

The important thing is that OCA now keeps families fully informed and supported, demonstrates that residents are their primary concern, and makes it clear that they do not want to lose any of these residents. Some families may be willing to (and financially able to) “upgrade” their family member to a care suite if that means they get a bed more quickly?

There are so many potential scenarios. It will be interesting to see whether OCA provides updates over the next couple of weeks. It would be excellent PR if they did.


Thanks for your post. I know it will vary from home to home, but in your experience how many rest home or hospital level care home residents have no family or friends to intercede on their behalf?

[ronaldson]

Great posts JK. Very valuable informative contributions for all those invested in this sector.

[Greekwatchdog]

ANZ been busy buying. Just under 9 million of them. https://www.nzx.com/announcements/414150

[thegreatestben]

ANZ also bought a lot more of PEB recently :blink:

[Balance]

OK - here's the story from one of the staff of Wesley Care Centre.

30 residents have found another place easily.

The other 20 will struggle to get another place as they are in the Respite and Palliative/End of Life facilities.

Staff member said Wesley is almost the end of the road for these 20 residents, some of whom had already found it hard to get a place elsewhere.

Read into it what you will.

[justakiwi]

Not sure what they mean re the respite comment - respite placements are for people being cared for by family (usually) who come for a short stay, to give their carer a break. Sometimes we will get a respite placement for someone who is being discharged from hospital, but is not quite ready to be at home on their own. But these placements are always short term. So if any of the Wesley residents are currently respite residents, they would be heading home soon anyway - they are not permanent residents. The longest respite stay we would have had would be two weeks, but most are for a week.

Palliative/End of Life residents is a scenario I had thought of, which does present problems. How many of those people will still be around in a week, two weeks, a month .... nobody really knows, although those caring for them will have some idea. Those are the folk we never want to have to move elsewhere, for very obvious reasons. It may be that some of those residents may have to be transferred to hospital or hospice down the track, if they are still here when the two months is up. This is absolutely not ideal, and I can tell you that staff will be heartbroken if that ends up being the case.

It is very easy for us to sit here analysing the situation, and making judgements in our head or openly, about OCA's role in the situation. But the reality is, we just don't know the full story. I know nothing about the property company/landlord. I do know something about OCA. I know they are passionate about care. I know they care about their residents. So for now, I am choosing to give OCA the benefit of the doubt. They may well have been stuck between a rock and a hard place, and made the best decision they could, under the circumstances.

Either we trust them or we don't.




The other 20 will struggle to get another place as they are in the Respite and Palliative/End of Life facilities.

Staff member said Wesley is almost the end of the road for these 20 residents, some of whom had already found it hard to get a place elsewhere.

Read into it what you will.

[winner69]

See our Director Dame Kerry is spending a fair bit of time last few days commenting publicly on Wellington's tipsy mayor.

Hope she also keeping abreast of developments at Wesley

[bull....]

I fully acknowledge that we all have our unique investment philosophies and strategies. I've always been more inclined towards fundamental analysis and intrinsic value estimation, I appreciate the insights provided by technical analysis, and incorporate both.

Regarding my valuation of OCA, it's rooted in my belief in the company's long-term growth prospects. The substantial investment I've made in OCA is a testament to my confidence in the future growth of this company. I consider factors such as the forecasted earnings growth dividend yield, and insider buying among others. My valuation also takes into account the broader context of the industry, baby boomer growth, and the potential for future growth and expansion. However, I must admit that this is a subjective process and it's entirely possible for two investors to arrive at different valuations based on the same set of data.

As for the technical analysis, your points about the stock's recent price movements and key support and resistance levels are well taken. Indeed, the stock has shown some resilience at the 74c level, and breaking through the 79c level could indeed be a bullish sign.

As with any analysis method, both intrinsic valuation and technical analysis have their limitations and should be used as part of a broader, holistic approach to investing. I completely agree with your "garbage in, garbage out" sentiment - the quality of our analysis is only as good as the data and assumptions we use.

In the end, whether we're fundamental investors, technical traders, or a bit of both, we're all here to make informed decisions and, profitable investments...time will tell.

thx for the reply , i just saw your post as have not browsed this thread for quite some time. seems a lot of thinking is more macro based than instrinsic but thats all good as macro based is what drives the stock more than anything.

anyway those technical levels i posted about 74c pivot support held so we might get a test of 79 soon

[Greekwatchdog]

Article in the Herald re Helliers. People already moved in. No word on how sales are. Update on AGM in August. Paywalled. https://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/watch-first-look-inside-150m-st-heliers-the-helier-retirement-village/MPWYCFVRNBGOHLWQZUGNIX54IM/

[Habits]

Article in the Herald re Helliers. People already moved in. No word on how sales are. Update on AGM in August https://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/watch-first-look-inside-150m-st-heliers-the-helier-retirement-village/MPWYCFVRNBGOHLWQZUGNIX54IM/

I have my OCA shares so tightly gripped, you'll have to prise them from my cold dead hands. No plans to sell

[ValueNZ]

Article in the Herald re Helliers. People already moved in. No word on how sales are. Update on AGM in August. Paywalled. https://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/watch-first-look-inside-150m-st-heliers-the-helier-retirement-village/MPWYCFVRNBGOHLWQZUGNIX54IM/
If anyone else is cheap like me you can circumvent the paywall by adding a full stop after the .co.nz in the URL like below.

https://www.nzherald.co.nz./business/watch-first-look-inside-150m-st-heliers-the-helier-retirement-village/MPWYCFVRNBGOHLWQZUGNIX54IM/ (https://www.nzherald.co.nz./business/watch-first-look-inside-150m-st-heliers-the-helier-retirement-village/MPWYCFVRNBGOHLWQZUGNIX54IM/)

[justakiwi]

Nope. Doesn’t work for me.


If anyone else is cheap like me you can circumvent the paywall by adding a full stop after the .co.nz in the URL like below.

https://www.nzherald.co.nz./business/watch-first-look-inside-150m-st-heliers-the-helier-retirement-village/MPWYCFVRNBGOHLWQZUGNIX54IM/ (https://www.nzherald.co.nz./business/watch-first-look-inside-150m-st-heliers-the-helier-retirement-village/MPWYCFVRNBGOHLWQZUGNIX54IM/)

[X-men]

Gosh...very posh!! Come with brand new EV....weekly cost $3500.

Unit starts with at least $1m

Marketing booth is closing soon next month. High demand.... definitely for rich people!!!

[bulltrap]

If anyone else is cheap like me you can circumvent the paywall by adding a full stop after the .co.nz in the URL like below.

https://www.nzherald.co.nz./business/watch-first-look-inside-150m-st-heliers-the-helier-retirement-village/MPWYCFVRNBGOHLWQZUGNIX54IM/ (https://www.nzherald.co.nz./business/watch-first-look-inside-150m-st-heliers-the-helier-retirement-village/MPWYCFVRNBGOHLWQZUGNIX54IM/)

:t_up:

Worked for me... Chrome rejected the invalid certificate, so I used the thisisunsafe (https://www.reddit.com/r/webdev/comments/kzgozy/til_you_can_type_thisisunsafe_on_chrome_ssl_error/) trick to bypass certificate check (at my own risk).

[ValueNZ]

:t_up:

Worked for me... Chrome rejected the invalid certificate, so I used the thisisunsafe (https://www.reddit.com/r/webdev/comments/kzgozy/til_you_can_type_thisisunsafe_on_chrome_ssl_error/) trick to bypass certificate check (at my own risk).
Thanks for this, I had been going into incognito mode previously which also works

[justakiwi]

That worked for me. Wow .... all I can say after watching the video, is (excuse my language) .... holy ****! Would love to be a fly on the wall and see how their premium care service operates. Wow.



Thanks for this, I had been going into incognito mode previously which also works

[X-men]

That is real retirement....need to save more money to be able to retire like that!!

[Habits]

That is real retirement....need to save more money to be able to retire like that!!

Brett spoke incredibly well, maybe he was reading it from a prompter lol

[Bjauck]

That is real retirement....need to save more money to be able to retire like that!! Rest homes with Chauffeur driven vehicles and butler service in the top echelon; not enough staff and closing old underfunded rest homes elsewhere. NZ has shifted from the New Elizabethan era to a new Dickensian one. I never thought that would become so obvious under a Labour Government!

Disc:I wish I did not have to wait until retirement age to occupy the penthouse apartment with my tonight's lotto win!

[justakiwi]

I don't think OCA will ever go down the road of making The Hellier the "norm." They thought outside the square, recognised the existence of a completely different (and very niche) market, and have taken advantage of it. It has presented them with an opportunity to make a lot of money, and to do so completely independently from the current government funding fiasco. I have no doubt they will continue to meet the current needs for traditional RV living, and care. The best of both worlds in my opinion.

OCA is definitely not lacking in vision. Do any of the other providers come close to providing anything even remotely similar to The Hellier?



Rest homes with Chauffeur driven vehicles and butler service in the top echelon; not enough staff and closing old rest homes elsewhere. NZ has shifted from the New Elizabethan era to a new Dickensian one.

[Bjauck]

Brett spoke incredibly well, maybe he was reading it from a prompter lol He was in effect in the role of a real estate agent in a sales presentation.

[Maverick]

Brett spoke incredibly well, maybe he was reading it from a prompter lol
I have had the pleasure of spending some time with Brent recently and was struck by his deep understanding of Heliers target clients.

He personally attends every annual meeting held at each OCA major village and affectionately refers to them as “old mates”. Through these meetings he gets coal face feedback on what the residence are desiring / disliking. One example is the new initiative ,community vehicles and concierge.

Initially when I learnt and observed, first hand, of the Helier development and pricing ambitions I was frankly concerned this could be a white elephant that could backfire big time. Who has that kind of wealth to kiss goodbye so blatantly?

Since then I have learned about the cohort of “old money” and Uber wealthy that does indeed exist out there. Then, coupled with my confidence gained by observation of Brent’s utter understanding of this tier of society I have become absolutely reassured that OCA know exactly what they are doing.

While the Helier is the jewel in OCAs crown it needs to be pointed out that ALL of OCAs developments both currently maturing or under construction are of the same calibre relative to their post codes.

This is the core of wether you “believe in OCA being better” or you don’t.

[Bjauck]

I don't think OCA will ever go down the road of making The Hellier the "norm." They thought outside the square, recognised the existence of a completely different (and very niche) market, and have taken advantage of it. It has presented them with an opportunity to make a lot of money, and to do so completely independently from the current government funding fiasco. I have no doubt they will continue to meet the current needs for traditional RV living, and care. The best of both worlds in my opinion.

OCA is definitely not lacking in vision. Do any of the other providers come close to providing anything even remotely similar to The Hellier? I know they are making the most of NZ government policy and exploiting the circumstances in NZ. That is why I have a shareholding.

[ronaldson]

I can't resist posting, for the enlightenment of holders outside of Auckland and not privy to the NZ Herald article today, details of The Helier's pricing.

The most expensive apartment (there are 79) has pre-sold for $5m+, and two-bedroom apartments are $1.7m to $3.5m (there are a mix of two-bedroom, two bedroom plus studio, and three bedroom plus study - not sure if pricing of the latter are disclosed). In addition there are 32 premium care hospital suites which cost $182k per annum - around $3500pw. There are no standalone villas.

The exact weekly fee for the suites will depend upon the level of care provided but the concept is to provide hospital standard rest home and palliative care for occupiers at the luxury end of the market. In the new system it will be residents and Oceania instead of the local health authority that decides who goes into that rest home or hospital suite. While still certified by Ministry of Health no authorised care contract will be entered into with the Government so as to remain outside the standard subsidy model, rather care and support is fully funded by the occupier.

Fees for residents are $275pw for the term of occupation covering rates, insurance, garden maintenance and other amenities BUT in addition a further $200pw for individuals and $275pw for couples designated as a hospitality fee covering electricity, Wi-Fi, daily newspaper delivery, concierge, valet parking, weekly cleaning, laundry, pool use, chauffeur service and tea or coffee served from the cafe. These are mandatory fees.

Deferred Management Fee is 30% charged over three years.

More to come about occupancy at the AGM on Friday 25 August at the Park Hyatt, Halsey Street, Auckland, commencing at 2.00pm, given construction is said to be running about three months later than expected.

[777]

No problem. My OCA shares should cover it by the time I need it.

[Baa_Baa]

No problem. My OCA shares should cover it by the time I need it.

Ha ha, funny I was thinking the same. Maybe not for me though, it might be out of my league when I'm in the same position, but who knows. This innovation by OCA with The Hellier is quite extraordinary, that they saw a long time in advance that there might be a population nearby who want to stay in their zone but continue a life of luxury that they're accustomed to, with the added benefits of aged care close by.

Considering what it cost to build The Hellier, which by property market investments is relatively modest, albeit quite a few millions shareholders have stumped up on this 'bet', and the long term returns. These are devoid of government interventions by way of 'care room rates' and the like, it might just be something special for residents and owners of the company that is enduring.

I'll be very interested in the uptake of The Hellier and whether it can be replicated elsewhere in the country. It really is quite unique, and obviously appealing for those who can afford it.

[Lego_Man]

I don't think OCA will ever go down the road of making The Hellier the "norm." They thought outside the square, recognised the existence of a completely different (and very niche) market, and have taken advantage of it. It has presented them with an opportunity to make a lot of money, and to do so completely independently from the current government funding fiasco. I have no doubt they will continue to meet the current needs for traditional RV living, and care. The best of both worlds in my opinion.

OCA is definitely not lacking in vision. Do any of the other providers come close to providing anything even remotely similar to The Hellier?

Winton have entered the biz. They have hired the ex Summerset CFO and their project in Wynyard Quarter is similarly top end.

[ronaldson]

Winton have entered the biz. They have hired the ex Summerset CFO and their project in Wynyard Quarter is similarly top end.

The practical reality is that you cannot now have a profitable business at the low end of this market. I certainly do not begrudge staff (cooks, cleaners, caregivers etc) a decent wage but again unless subsidies are correspondingly increased (and they aren't) it exacerbates the problem. As does lack of nurses and others in the labour market. So there is no new investment in facilities intended to meet this demand.

Most listed operators have made public statements or commentary in the last 2 or 3 years about rebalancing stock in their portfolios. And some are actively marketing existing unprofitable or marginal facilities despite it being apparent that disposal is difficult to achieve against a background of regular ongoing closures of private rest homes. And all this in the context of a rising demographic tide of folk needing such support. And I regularly read about complaints directed to the (relatively few) organisations that exist to provide relief and care for people remaining in their own accommodation despite needing direct support to do so.

So cracks have appeared and the listed operators will/are incrementally moving their business model to those who can afford to pay. If you want/expect quality of life in the aged care sector you will need an asset base which will support that and you are increasingly unlikely to experience that unless you do. The present system has overleveraged the selfless commitment and goodwill of so many staff who work in the sector without recognising that our society is gradually changing. Australia is not much different, which is why our listed operators model can succeed in that country too.

My advice is to keep saving while you can as you are very likely to need that wealth when 70+ if you wish an adequate lifestyle/standard of care in this country.

[Habits]

14659

From Mary Holm Q&A

[justakiwi]

Yes I saw that. I meant to share it but got sidetracked and forgot, so thanks for posting it. This is where the media lets everyone down, and continues to perpetuate the current myth that RV's are greedy, self serving, selfish businesses who make money out of vulnerable old people, who are incapable of making their own decisions. They hook into every "negative" event/issue, and completely ignore the "positive" - sensationalist journalism with zero attempt to present the other side of the story.

It needs to stop.

[Balance]

Yes I saw that. I meant to share it but got sidetracked and forgot, so thanks for posting it. This is where the media lets everyone down, and continues to perpetuate the current myth that RV's are greedy, self serving, selfish businesses who make money out of vulnerable old people, who are incapable of making their own decisions. They hook into every "negative" event/issue, and completely ignore the "positive" - sensationalist journalism with zero attempt to present the other side of the story.

It needs to stop.

Stop?

Let us know when the media stops promoting woke as normal and criminals as victims.

[justakiwi]

FFS. Just give it a rest Balance :angry:


Stop?

Let us know when the media stops promoting woke as normal and criminals as victims.

[Balance]

FFS. Just give it a rest Balance :angry:

It’s the truth though.

The media in NZ has been coached (by corrosive persuasion and Covid media $$$ support) into promoting any situation as having two victims - the victim and the criminal are two sides of the same coin.

Hence, retirement villages providing a critical & necessary service are written up as profiteering businesses taking advantage of the naive elderly.

Oh, we all just have to remember to be kind! Treat gangs with aroha and atawhai. Everything in NZ will be kapai! :t_up:

[justakiwi]

I don't give a rats arse what you believe is the truth. This is the OCA thread, and I am sick to death of you coming in here and taking the discussion off track, for your own personal political agenda. You have multiple political threads at your disposal, where you can work on giving yourself a heart attack or stroke, without destroying every damned thread in these forums.

Just piss the **** off!



It’s the truth though.

The media in NZ has been coached (by corrosive persuasion and Covid media $$$ support) into promoting any situation as having two victims - the victim and the criminal are two sides of the same coin.

Hence, retirement villages providing a critical & necessary service are written up as profiteering businesses taking advantage of the naive elderly.

Oh, we all just have to remember to be kind! Treat gangs with aroha and atawhai. Everything in NZ will be kapai! :t_up:

[BlackPeter]

I don't give a rats arse what you believe is the truth. This is the OCA thread, and I am sick to death of you coming in here and taking the discussion off track, for your own personal political agenda. You have multiple political threads at your disposal, where you can work on giving yourself a heart attack or stroke, without destroying every damned thread in these forums.

Just piss the **** off!

I second that - and the good thing is, you didn't even have to be woke to express the feelings of the many decent readers and posters on this thread. Even balance should be happy.

Now - back to OCA:

[Balance]

I don't give a rats arse what you believe is the truth. This is the OCA thread, and I am sick to death of you coming in here and taking the discussion off track, for your own personal political agenda. You have multiple political threads at your disposal, where you can work on giving yourself a heart attack or stroke, without destroying every damned thread in these forums.

Just piss the **** off!


I second that - and the good thing is, you didn't even have to be woke to express the feelings of the many decent readers and posters on this thread. Even balance should be happy.

Now - back to OCA:

Now, now JAK and BP.

Have you both not heard of political & regulatory risks?

What I wrote is entirely appropriate and pertinent to this OCA thread - that the woke media is on the attack about the 'profiteering' RV operators, farming obscene capital gains at the expense of the vulnerable elderly & increasingly senile residents.

And the woke media in New Zealand Aotearoa is not going to stop anytime soon.

Why are you both getting so worked up about the truth? Just take that into consideration the risk of regulations when pricing and valuing the risks around RVs.

[winner69]

Summerset due to release June quarter sales update next day or two.

Hope some real +ve numbers …and hoping OCA are doing the same.

[Balance]

An example of the woke media in action:

https://www.stuff.co.nz/business/132086719/ryman-profit-drops-but-result-reveals-aussies-paying-less-to-live-in-retirement-villages-than-new-zealanders

“In Melbourne, the median house was worth $1.51m, and the price for an independent two-bed unit in a Ryman village was $940,000.

That meant Aucklanders faced unit prices that were just 18% lower than the median house price in their areas, while people in Melbourne faced unit prices 38% below local median house prices.“

In other words, NZers are getting ripped off is the gist of what the reporter is pushing.

[ValueNZ]

Yes I saw that. I meant to share it but got sidetracked and forgot, so thanks for posting it. This is where the media lets everyone down, and continues to perpetuate the current myth that RV's are greedy, self serving, selfish businesses who make money out of vulnerable old people, who are incapable of making their own decisions. They hook into every "negative" event/issue, and completely ignore the "positive" - sensationalist journalism with zero attempt to present the other side of the story.

It needs to stop.

I agree with your post, but to add to that, what companies aren't greedy? Greed leads to a better customer experience in competitive markets through innovation and increases in productivity.

I also agree that the idea that old people are somehow being taken advantage of is complete bullocks. Anyone with a basic understanding of economics will tell you that for a voluntary transaction to take place both parties need to gain a surplus, which means the buyer valuing the good/service more than the cash they spend. That applies to old people looking to move into a retirement village.

[davflaws]

Greed leads to a better customer experience in competitive markets through innovation and increases in productivity.


Or so the theory goes, and there is no doubt that capitalism is the most efficient system for the production of goods and services. But your hypothesis depends on a perfectly efficient market -and they are a bit like unicorns. Even with a perfectly efficient market, capitalism produces wealth, but unregulated, also produces exploitation and vast inequality and misery. Gordon Gecko's mantra may well help many of the individuals posting on these forums to feel better about themselves and their activities, but imo it is sadly lacking both as a moral compas and as a principle on which to organise society.

[justakiwi]

I guess it depends on your definition of "greed."

Miriam Webster defines greed as:

"a selfish and excessive desire for more of something (such as money) than is needed"

The Oxford Dictionary says:

"intense and selfish (https://www.google.com/search?client=safari&rls=en&q=selfish&si=ACFMAn_otZSKbpzAqD_RvWk4YSL-9iMikRJNqMTXF5yZlGpqvyPZlAan9o5xvnrt2tZe3nGpHt1wt4 RBJKTVFVTqFyYtKURu1g%3D%3D&expnd=1) desire for something, especially wealth, power, or food.
example: mercenaries who had allowed greed to overtake their principles"

My idea of greed is a combination of both of those. An intense, and selfish desire for something, for which you are prepared to ignore your own principles.

OCA, or any of the RV providers, absolutely do not meet that definition, in my eyes.



I agree with your post, but to add to that, what companies aren't greedy? Greed leads to a better customer experience in competitive markets through innovation and increases in productivity.

I also agree that the idea that old people are somehow being taken advantage of is complete bullocks. Anyone with a basic understanding of economics will tell you that for a voluntary transaction to take place both parties need to gain a surplus, which means the buyer valuing the good/service more than the cash they spend. That applies to old people looking to move into a retirement village.

[davflaws]

Now, now JAK and BP.

Have you both not heard of political & regulatory risks?

I have some experience (though not current) of the way political risks are managed on the level of a policy response, and of the way policy is developed inside the Public Service as a result of that process, along with the way that policy risks devolve from it.

As a result, I have very ittle faith in either the fulminations or prognostications of the posters with rabid political views who take every opportunity to bag the current government. Balance is one, and I too wish he would save his bile for the other forums.

[ValueNZ]

I guess it depends on your definition of "greed."

Miriam Webster defines greed as:

"a selfish and excessive desire for more of something (such as money) than is needed"

The Oxford Dictionary says:

"intense and selfish (https://www.google.com/search?client=safari&rls=en&q=selfish&si=ACFMAn_otZSKbpzAqD_RvWk4YSL-9iMikRJNqMTXF5yZlGpqvyPZlAan9o5xvnrt2tZe3nGpHt1wt4 RBJKTVFVTqFyYtKURu1g%3D%3D&expnd=1) desire for something, especially wealth, power, or food.
example: mercenaries who had allowed greed to overtake their principles"

My idea of greed is a combination of both of those. An intense, and selfish desire for something, for which you are prepared to ignore your own principles.

OCA, or any of the RV providers, absolutely do not meet that definition, in my eyes.


If you change the definition of any word, you can make words mean anything. Companies are profit driven entities since decisions are being made by the shareholders who are there to make money. Shareholders certainly do not own stock for the benefit of the customers (I'm sure if you looked hard enough you could find exceptions to this rule).

So yes, shareholders and therefore companies, have a selfish desire for money which would meet both definitions. That includes OCA and the other RV providers. If Oceania wasn't greedy, I wouldn't be a shareholder in the company since I own the stock so I can make money.

[winner69]

If you change the definition of any word, you can make words mean anything. Companies are profit driven entities since decisions are being made by the shareholders who are there to make money. Shareholders certainly do not own stock for the benefit of the customers (I'm sure if you looked hard enough you could find exceptions to this rule).

So yes, shareholders and therefore companies, have a selfish desire for money which would meet both definitions. That includes OCA and the other RV providers. If Oceania wasn't greedy, I wouldn't be a shareholder in the company since I own the stock so I can make money.

So the likes of Tomlinson aren’t really ‘independent’ Directors …they have a vested interest?

[ValueNZ]

Or so the theory goes, and there is no doubt that capitalism is the most efficient system for the production of goods and services. But your hypothesis depends on a perfectly efficient market -and they are a bit like unicorns. Even with a perfectly efficient market, capitalism produces wealth, but unregulated, also produces exploitation and vast inequality and misery. Gordon Gecko's mantra may well help many of the individuals posting on these forums to feel better about themselves and their activities, but imo it is sadly lacking both as a moral compas and as a principle on which to organise society.
Capitalism definitely causes inequality, but only as a result of the massively increasing amount of goods and services it can produce. But does this mean the poorest in society are worse off? Only an idiot would make that claim, just look at the falling poverty rates world wide over the last few centuries as a result of capitalism.

Capitalism is based on voluntary transactions, meaning if a worker is feeling "exploited" they have the freedom to leave their job. If they cannot find pay higher elsewhere, perhaps they are not being exploited at all, and instead were being paid a fair market rate. These voluntary transactions definitionally are mutually beneficial.

Perhaps you could explain what you mean by capitalism causing misery.

[justakiwi]

Well clearly your defy of greedy is very different to mine. I expect companies I invest in to be profit driven and efficient at achieving that, but I don’t expect, or need them to be greedy. Please do not express that view publicly, outside of this forum, because it is precisely that attitude that creates the societal illusion that RVs are exploiting our elderly purely to make huge profits. Society already considers us (shareholders) to be greedy bastards ripping off their elderly folk. The last thing we need is shareholders substantiating that belief. Do you really think that someone like me, who has passionately cared for, and supported many elderly folk, in my caregiving role - would invest in any company that was exploiting their customers out of sheer greed???




If you change the definition of any word, you can make words mean anything. Companies are profit driven entities since decisions are being made by the shareholders who are there to make money. Shareholders certainly do not own stock for the benefit of the customers (I'm sure if you looked hard enough you could find exceptions to this rule).

So yes, shareholders and therefore companies, have a selfish desire for money which would meet both definitions. That includes OCA and the other RV providers. If Oceania wasn't greedy, I wouldn't be a shareholder in the company since I own the stock so I can make money.

[ValueNZ]

So the likes of Tomlinson aren’t really ‘independent’ Directors …they have a vested interest?
Alignment of the interest of board members and shareholders is a good thing. Whether that makes Tomlinson not an "independent" director, I'm really not sure...

[ValueNZ]

Well clearly your defy of greedy is very different to mine. I expect companies I invest in to be profit driven and efficient at achieving that, but I don’t expect, or need them to be greedy. Please do not express that view publicly, outside of this forum, because it is precisely that attitude that creates the societal illusion that RVs are exploiting our elderly purely to make huge profits. Society already considers us (shareholders) to be greedy bastards ripping off their elderly folk. The last thing we need is shareholders substantiating that belief. Do you really think that someone like me, who has passionately cared for, and supported many elderly folk, in my caregiving role - would invest in any company that was exploiting their customers out of sheer greed???
Ah but it's not exploitation it's a mutually beneficial transaction. I do not in anyway shape or form believe that shareholders in retirement village companies are ripping off elderly folk, but I do believe that retirement village operators meet the definition of being greedy. As do all profit driven entities.

Let's stick to the definition which is accepted by society rather than what you deem to be the definition. Makes discussion easier.

edit: I will continue to express the view that shareholders own stock in companies for their own benefit. There is nothing wrong with that.

[Bjauck]

Ah but it's not exploitation it's a mutually beneficial transaction. I do not in anyway shape or form believe that shareholders in retirement village companies are ripping off elderly folk, but I do believe that retirement village operators meet the definition of being greedy. As do all profit driven entities.

Let's stick to the definition which is accepted by society rather than what you deem to be the definition. Makes discussion easier.

edit: I will continue to express the view that shareholders own stock in companies for their own benefit. There is nothing wrong with that.
I am a shareholder as I hope that my investment will grow in value and return. I also hope that society as whole will prosper and thrive. I think the best way for that to occur is for an equitable standard of living for all to reduce resentment, while allowing for incentives for hard work and effort in research.

Greed is to wishing for and striving to accumulate as many resources for oneself without caring if others have even a minimum amount.

OCA does not act in a greedy manner, in my opinion. It needs to ensure clients, workforce and shareholders remain content. Clients’ contentedness is fundamental to success.

[SailorRob]

Inequality drives innovation.

[ValueNZ]

OCA does not act in a greedy manner, in my opinion. It needs to ensure clients, workforce and shareholders remain content. Clients’ contentedness is fundamental to success.
Greed is defined as the selfish desire for something, especially wealth, power, or food.

Oceania does not act in a greedy matter.
Oceania is a profit driven company.
Spot the contradiction.

[justakiwi]

Yes, you are now contradicting your own statement above. You said “If OCA wasn’t greedy, I wouldn’t be a shareholder…” and now you’re saying OCA is not greedy. Make your mind up.

Clearly you are now just game playing.


Greed is defined as the selfish desire for something, especially wealth, power, or food.

Oceania does not act in a greedy matter.
Oceania is a profit driven company.
Spot the contradiction.

[ValueNZ]

Yes, you are now contradicting your own statement above. You said “If OCA wasn’t greedy, I wouldn’t be a shareholder…” and now you’re saying OCA is not greedy. Make your mind up.

Clearly you are now just game playing.

That was the point of my post. You cannot simultaneously believe that Oceania (or any company) is profit driven as well as not greedy. Its contradictory...
Hence the "spot the contradiction".

[justakiwi]

You are 100% incorrect. Seeking profit does not equal greed. End of story. Pointless debate.

Back to OCA (yet again).




That was the point of my post. You cannot simultaneously believe that Oceania (or any company) is profit driven as well as not greedy. Its contradictory...
Hence the "spot the contradiction".

[davflaws]

Capitalism definitely causes inequality, but only as a result of the massively increasing amount of goods and services it can produce. But does this mean the poorest in society are worse off? Only an idiot would make that claim, just look at the falling poverty rates world wide over the last few centuries as a result of capitalism.
So we can agree that capitalism produces vast wealth and vast inequality. You believe the inequallity is purely the result of the quantum of goods and services, whereas I (and Picketty) see it as an inherent feature of the system. But that difference doesn't matter too much since we agree that capitalism is productively superior and in practice can result in vast inequality.

But I see that inequality (and the other ills resulting from the capitalist system) as arising from its unrestrained operation when unregulated or poorly regulated.
You avoid confronting the issue of regulation and (what I see as) a societal duty to ameliorate the bad effects of capitalism by clinging to the fiction that all transactions are voluntary and markets are perfectly efficient.


Capitalism is based on voluntary transactions, meaning if a worker is feeling "exploited" they have the freedom to leave their job. If they cannot find pay higher elsewhere, perhaps they are not being exploited at all, and instead were being paid a fair market rate. These voluntary transactions definitionally are mutually beneficial.

This story may give you comfort, but it ignores the fact that even heavily regulated markets do not operate with perfect efficiency, and there are vast differentials in resources, power, and the ability to capture and monopolise 'free goods'. Unregulated markets are worse in these respects.


Perhaps you could explain what you mean by capitalism causing misery.

What I actually suggested is that unregulated or poorly regulated capitalism causes inequality and misery. It isn't too hard to find examples. Sweatshops, child labour and prostitution, poorhouses, a third of young women in London surviving by prostitution, Flint Michigan, Amazon Rainforests, industrial scale slavery, Bhopal etc etc.

You may like to Google "The Spirit Level" if you want to investigate how inequality in itself causes ill health and unhappiness - but be warned - it may well make you feel uncomfortable.

[Valuegrowth]

I agree that unregulated or poorly regulated capitalism causes inequality and misery. On top of that, we find crony
Capitalism in some developing or emerging countries.

[BlackPeter]

If you change the definition of any word, you can make words mean anything. Companies are profit driven entities since decisions are being made by the shareholders who are there to make money. Shareholders certainly do not own stock for the benefit of the customers (I'm sure if you looked hard enough you could find exceptions to this rule).

So yes, shareholders and therefore companies, have a selfish desire for money which would meet both definitions. That includes OCA and the other RV providers. If Oceania wasn't greedy, I wouldn't be a shareholder in the company since I own the stock so I can make money.

Obviously - everybody acts to a degree selfish (otherwise they would not exist - eating, drinking and breathing is selfish as well) but most look as well after the interests of other stakeholders.

I think you mix up legitimate and essential self interest and undesirable greed. Different things.

In any voluntary deal both sides give not more than they want to and both sides gain what they want. Otherwise the deal would not occur. If both sides are happy, this is a win-win situation, and none of the sides acted greedy. Sure, both are looking after their interest as well (otherwise they would not be happy afterwards), but I can't see how you can call any party to a win-win deal greedy.

I don't see any looser in Oceania's business - so, it is obviously nonsense to talk about greed.

[BlackPeter]

I agree that unregulated or poorly regulated capitalism causes inequality and misery. On top of that, we find crony
Capitalism in some developing or emerging countries.

Sorry - I just realized that I am contributing as well to the problem of polluting the OCA thread. Mea culpa.

But still - while this well might be an interesting topic - is there any chance we can move that to a thread where it might belong?

Why don't you create a thread in the general section of this forum to discuss the pros and cons of various economic and political systems ... and if you like as well another thread to discuss the nuances of the word "greed"?

Both sound like interesting subjects, the discussion about them is just in the wrong place.

... and if you like to have the last word - put a link to these threads in here and promise the long suffering OCA community that this was as well the last intrusion into their thread.

[winner69]

I say leave things as they are BP

Oceania encompasses so many emotions and the thread is a good place for punters to express their feelings. Move the discussion to a quieter part of the forum would deprive these punters of that opportunity.

Most of the discussion seems ‘pertinent’ to Oceania anyway

[justakiwi]

....Deleted .....


I say leave things as they are BP

Oceania encompasses so many emotions and the thread is a good place for punters to express their feelings. Move the discussion to a quieter part of the forum would deprive these punters of that opportunity.

Most of the discussion seems ‘pertinent’ to Oceania anyway

[Fortunecookie]

Unfortunately there is a cost to society.
It's either through fiscal policies or through the combination of other policies i.e housing, immigration etc. It is currently in the too hard basket.

It may appear as greed. But behind that is likely to be the behaviour of self preservation i.e don't you think the CEO is worried if he doesn't meet expectation.

[winner69]

Summerset announced they had very solid sales in the June quarter. It was even a record sales quarter resales

Hope Brent excitedly says at the AGM that Oceania have had a booming start to the new year. Market seems to be improving

[Maverick]

Summerset announced they had very solid sales in the June quarter. It was even a record sales quarter resales

Hope Brent excitedly says at the AGM that Oceania have had a booming start to the new year. Market seems to be improving

True that Winner....just imagine how the return of normal sales would affect a certain company with $380m of new stock ready to go at the latest margin of 39%.

[thegreatestben]

Doubling down on my position, my order started to be filled at close last night, looks like the rest should be filled at opening :)

[winner69]

Summerset announced they had very solid sales in the June quarter. It was even a record sales quarter resales

Hope Brent excitedly says at the AGM that Oceania have had a booming start to the new year. Market seems to be improving


OMG …..$380m at 39% margin is realised gains of nearly $150m ………read in context that F23 realised gains were $60m (and that was pretty good)

Astounding stuff ……I need to look at my numbers and update expectations I think

No wonder Ben is doubling down

[Maverick]

OMG …..$380m at 39% margin is realised gains of nearly $150m ………read in context that F23 realised gains were $60m (and that was pretty good)

Astounding stuff ……I need to look at my numbers and update expectations I think

No wonder Ben is doubling downTo help you out with that math Winner , my running totals have the NEW stock on hand 1.4.2023 ( with out resale volumes which we don't know) as follows;
4 villas at $537k
167 Apartments at $1.2m
335 cares suits at $337k
Total new stock on hand = $315 m

The new stuff attracted 39% new margin 2HY2023 while the resale attracted about 22%.

The reason why resale margins appear low is because they have high volumes of care suites which turnover every 2.5 years . So less time for capital gain to accrue.

Also of note is that the new stock value of $315m includes $113m of care suites. A lot of these c/s are grandfathered so will only become available for sale onto the market as the possibly quite healthy residents depart over a longer time period.

The other thing is the Helier is the tail wagging the dog here . Its sales rates and margins are unpredictable with any certainty at this point.

Suffice to say there should be about $315m x .39% = $123m flow onto the P+L over the next few years where the normal NEW sales margin ( excluding resales ) is about $33m per annum.

Anyone who can`t see the value here or still considers things too risky ( after SUMs report today) would be more suited to managed funds. I have very rarely seen such obvious value over my many years of investing.

[WAIKEN]

You are pitch perfect Maverick

We are dangerously under priced. We are a takeover target. Perhaps from an Australian RV or a European Sovereign Fund. Shades of Metlife
which was one of my best NZ share returns over many years of investing. I managed to get MET AT 50% of NTA
OCA has a current NTA of 1.33 which should exceed 1.60 next year as interest rates fall and valuers are no longer bound by discount rates that create NTAs miles from replacement cost.

[ValueNZ]

You are pitch perfect Maverick

We are dangerously under priced. We are a takeover target. Perhaps from an Australian RV or a European Sovereign Fund. Shades of Metlife
which was one of my best NZ share returns over many years of investing. I managed to get MET AT 50% of NTA
OCA has a current NTA of 1.33 which should exceed 1.60 next year as interest rates fall and valuers are no longer bound by discount rates that create NTAs miles from replacement cost.
It's possible that you are correct but I personally believe that it is highly unlikely that the board of directors would approve an acquisition. I'm sure that out of all the shareholders, the board of directors will understand the business and sector the best and would therefore see the share price as deeply undervalued. It seems unlikely that they would be willing to give up their shares, even at a premium. Here is some information I have pulled from the most recent annual report.

Directors’ Interests in Shares Directors of Oceania have disclosed the following relevant interests in shares as at 31 March 2023:
Director Number of shares in which a relevant interest is held
Elizabeth Coutts 1,902,507 shares
Alan Isaac 311,389 shares
Dame Kerry Prendergast 361,297 shares
Sally Evans 143,584 shares
Gregory Tomlinson 27,882,244 shares
Robert Hamilton 40,500 shares
Peter Dufaur 77,169 shares

There have also been plenty of purchases of stock fairly recently by these individuals @ 0.80c

Elizabeth Coutts 42,762 Beneficial interest Acquisition $0.80 14 December 2022
Alan Isaac 4,851 Beneficial interest Acquisition $0.80 14 December 2022
Dame Kerry Prendergast 5,630 Registered and beneficial interest Acquisition $0.80 14 December 2022
Sally Evans 2,827 Registered and beneficial interest Acquisition $0.80 14 December 2022
Gregory Tomlinson 643,618 Beneficial interest Acquisition $0.80 14 December 2022
Peter Dufaur 1,202 Registered and beneficial interest Acquisition $0.80 14 December 2022

And there was a more recent purchase of 35,000 shares on the 27th June 2023 by Elizabeth Coutts.

As for an actual hostile takeover, I doubt any company or individual would be able to acquire 50% ownership of Oceania without major upward pressure on the share price since most of the purchases would probably have to be done on the market.

[BlackPeter]

...

As for an actual hostile takeover, I doubt any company or individual would be able to acquire 50% ownership of Oceania without major upward pressure on the share price since most of the purchases would probably have to be done on the market.

I assume you realise that anything above 20% would require a partial or complete takeover offer (i.e. not "on the market").

[ValueNZ]

I assume you realise that anything above 20% would require a partial or complete takeover offer (i.e. not "on the market").
No I hadn't realised that. I still have alot of learning when it comes to finance, thank you for the correction.

[thegreatestben]

Even an unsuccessful attempt would be a needless distraction though. From here we just need to see BAU unfold and see if Maverick is on the money :)

[winner69]

No I hadn't realised that. I still have alot of learning when it comes to finance, thank you for the correction.

Hey value …here’s a summary of takeovers in NZ …as well as further discussion

https://www.takeovers.govt.nz/guidance/

Takeovers can get messy …..that’s why a lot end up as Schemes of Arrangement

[winner69]

Chair Liz with her average buy at just over $1 wouldn’t want to be selling for anything less would she

No doubt many shareholders in much the same position

[ronaldson]

It seems clear that the recent nadir for this sector is behind us now. A failure to lift the OCR later today will confirm this, so far as the property market is concerned, and the increase in daily subsidy rate for aged care has kicked in to stabilise that aspect a little. Sales and resales for all operators reporting don't seem to be a cause for concern. So the go forward is looking not too bad just now.

While it may not actually happen there is a reasonable possibility of a price rerate for OCA and if it does happens it will be quick and could be quite sharp.

[X-men]

All bankers are confident that the ocr is to be paused n housing market is touched the button

[Habits]

Fears for rest home residents after Wesley Care Centre in Mt Eden, Auckland, to shut down
https://www.nzherald.co.nz/nz/aucklands-wesley-rest-home-shuts-doors-suddenly/75QAY4G7YJGWZCIVS7QCTQYJDQ/

Same article from weeks ago reloaded within the last hour.

Hit job on the property owner or on the operator??

[X-men]

Here in NZ..you mourn and nag...u get an attention..some other countries...no one cares about your nagging

[thegreatestben]

Fears for rest home residents after Wesley Care Centre in Mt Eden, Auckland, to shut down
https://www.nzherald.co.nz/nz/aucklands-wesley-rest-home-shuts-doors-suddenly/75QAY4G7YJGWZCIVS7QCTQYJDQ/

Same article from weeks ago reloaded within the last hour.

Hit job on the property owner or on the operator??

There's an update at the bottom with a statement from Oceania, that wasn't there when I first read the article but could have been added any time since?

"Update: After publishing Oceania released a statement saying it is committed to the best outcomes for its residents, who will have the opportunity to be relocated to another Auckland Oceania Care Centre. All staff at Wesley also have alternative employment options within the Oceania family of Care Centres."

[justakiwi]

Thanks for the link. Seems a weird way to update a previous story. Would have been better to create a follow up story in my opinion. Having said that, it is a positive and reassuring statement from OCA so I hope the general public actually realise it is there, and read it.


There's an update at the bottom with a statement from Oceania, that wasn't there when I first read the article but could have been added any time since?

"Update: After publishing Oceania released a statement saying it is committed to the best outcomes for its residents, who will have the opportunity to be relocated to another Auckland Oceania Care Centre. All staff at Wesley also have alternative employment options within the Oceania family of Care Centres."

[bull....]

testing 79c shortly , which would correlate with the current moon cycle

[thegreatestben]

Thank you moon.

[Ggcc]

All bankers are confident that the ocr is to be paused n housing market is touched the button
Also the housing market will speed up as quickly as it dropped. 2026 we will be seeing new highs.

[Entrep]

testing 79c shortly , which would correlate with the current moon cycle

moon as in the luna moon, or moon as in the price is going to the moon?

[SailorRob]

Those bonds though...

[ValueNZ]

Those bonds though...
What about it, it's not great after you account for inflation. The shares are a far better deal.

[SailorRob]

What about it, it's not great after you account for inflation. The shares are a far better deal.


No good for us but look around at what other people are into, got a fellow on 'listed property' thread saying that if one day he could get to a possible 5.56% yield that would be incredible.

Massive capital gain potential with the bonds as well, much more mechanical adjustment to rates.

[Baa_Baa]

As SailorRob has pointed out, and Maverick with his deep research and insights corroborates, I think that I could add a spin on this.

I see a market that has turned against us in recent times, and devalued all RV companies to well below even NTA, including OCA. That means a company could potentially wind up and sell its assets and pay out its shareholders more than the SP is worth on the exchange. But I doubt that will ever happen for any of them. So I think the market has significantly undervalued this OCA and many other companies as well.

What does that mean in real terms? It means, that these assets are underpriced by the market, they are 'cheap', imo, that we can take a postion in this and other devalued companies and look forward to a bright and new future. It has been a long time since we could do this, it was not so long ago that everything was over priced in the market.

Strangely though, when value does present itself after a long hibernation, that we have been accustomed to over valuation, we are paralysed and fail to recognise it or take advantage of it.

What we have here with OCA, is not a competition between other RV's, they've all been hammered by the market. Moreso it is whether you buy into a business model that is unique and whether it is sustainable, in spite of potential regulation. There is little difference between all the RV's, it is like splitting hairs, but underlying all of them is the same business model but just balanced in different ways.

I bought into a business model, with OCA and some of the others, that not only serves its customers very well, over serves them even, but is founded in something unique or very rare in business, that the customer willingly essentially finances the unlimited development growth of the company, with no interest payable to them. It is quite unusual and a unique business model. A careful balance of desirable outcomes between customer and owner.

[ValueNZ]

No good for us but look around at what other people are into, got a fellow on 'listed property' thread saying that if one day he could get to a possible 5.56% yield that would be incredible.

Massive capital gain potential with the bonds as well, much more mechanical adjustment to rates.
True about the inverse relationship bonds have with rates. If only I had the crystal ball that others on this forum have that tell them where the cash rate, the stock market, and the property market are all going within the next year... I'd be rich!

[SailorRob]

As SailorRob has pointed out, and Maverick with his deep research and insights corroborates, I think that I could add a spin on this.

I see a market that has turned against us in recent times, and devalued all RV companies to well below even NTA, including OCA. That means a company could potentially wind up and sell its assets and pay out its shareholders more than the SP is worth on the exchange. But I doubt that will ever happen for any of them. So I think the market has significantly undervalued this OCA and many other companies as well.

What does that mean in real terms? It means, that these assets are underpriced by the market, they are 'cheap', imo, that we can take a postion in this and other devalued companies and look forward to a bright and new future. It has been a long time since we could do this, it was not so long ago that everything was over priced in the market.

Strangely though, when value does present itself after a long hibernation, that we have been accustomed to over valuation, we are paralysed and fail to recognise it or take advantage of it.

What we have here with OCA, is not a competition between other RV's, they've all been hammered by the market. Moreso it is whether you buy into a business model that is unique and whether it is sustainable, in spite of potential regulation. There is little difference between all the RV's, it is like splitting hairs, but underlying all of them is the same business model but just balanced in different ways.

I bought into a business model, with OCA and some of the others, that not only serves its customers very well, over serves them even, but is founded in something unique or very rare in business, that the customer willingly essentially finances the unlimited development growth of the company, with no interest payable to them. It is quite unusual and a unique business model. A careful balance of desirable outcomes between customer and owner.

Great post.

Yes everyone wants a bargain until it's staring them in the face.

Once OCA is $2 and rising, everyone will want it.

[SailorRob]

True about the inverse relationship bonds have with rates. If only I had the crystal ball that others on this forum have that tell them where the cash rate, the stock market, and the property market are all going within the next year... I'd be rich!

Not just bonds, the equity too, but not as mechanical a relationship.

[Snoopy]

Those bonds though...


SailorRob, you have piqued my interest in the OCA010 notes, with a maturity date of 19/10/2027 with a coupon rate of 2.30%.

I see there is a quote on the market today for someone wanting to acquire some bonds for a rate of 7.8% (!). But nothing on the sell side, so no-one wants to take up such a 'generous' offer. It does make the whole exercise seem a bit hypothetical. Might be interesting if some liquidity did emerge though!

The other issue you would have if you acquired such bonds is that they would fall under IRD 'financial arrangement' rules. I was digging around on the IRD website for some 'worked examples' on this topic and found this:

https://www.taxtechnical.ird.govt.nz/-/media/project/ir/tt/pdfs/determinations/financial-arrangements/financial-arrangements-general/determination-g3.pdf?modified=20211123023345&modified=20211123023345

There is a worked example in that bulletin. But you may need an accountant to understand it, as I don't believe all the steps are fully explained. I will wait with interest on your report back, when you have had a chance to go through the material.

SNOOPY

[SailorRob]

SailorRob, you have piqued my interest in the OCA010 notes, with a maturity date of 19/10/2027 with a coupon rate of 2.30%.

I see there is a quote on the market today for someone wanting to acquire some bonds for a rate of 7.8% (!). But nothing on the sell side, so no-one wants to take up such a 'generous' offer. It does make the whole exercise seem a bit hypothetical. Might be interesting if some liquidity did emerge though!

The other issue you would have if you acquired such bonds is that they would fall under IRD 'financial arrangement' rules. I was digging around on the IRD website for some 'worked examples' on this topic and found this:

https://www.taxtechnical.ird.govt.nz/-/media/project/ir/tt/pdfs/determinations/financial-arrangements/financial-arrangements-general/determination-g3.pdf?modified=20211123023345&modified=20211123023345

There is a worked example in that bulletin. But you may need an accountant to understand it, as I don't believe all the steps are fully explained. I will wait with interest on your report back, when you have had a chance to go through the material.

SNOOPY


A friend bought some recently (a lot) and got that yield so it's really available. I will talk to them and review the other issue as well.

It does make some sense as you have a potential for a very large capital gain in a declining rate environment, a gain on the market realising that there are no solvency issues or you just hold and do pretty well anyway.

Have your cake and eat it.

Will respond with my findings.

[bull....]

i dont even understand how these bonds work :scared: if the bid is .078 what does this mean ?

[Snow Leopard]

...There is a worked example in that bulletin. But you may need an accountant to understand it, as I don't believe all the steps are fully explained....
SNOOPY

The mystery bit is: "It will be found that the constant annual rate R is 16.2308% per annum." But I can reveal it is done by simply hooking the logic circuits of a Bambleweeny 57 Sub-Meson Brain to an atomic vector plotter suspended in a strong Brownian Motion producer (say a nice hot cup of tea) (https://hitchhikers.fandom.com/wiki/Infinite_Improbability_Drive)

[SailorRob]

i dont even understand how these bonds work :scared: if the bid is .078 what does this mean ?


Same as any bond anywhere in the world.

[BlackPeter]

i dont even understand how these bonds work :scared: if the bid is .078 what does this mean ?

Yes, its a bit confusing, but the 0.078 means that you buy the bonds at a 7.8% interest rate.

[jagger]

A friend bought some recently (a lot) and got that yield so it's really available. I will talk to them and review the other issue as well.

It does make some sense as you have a potential for a very large capital gain in a declining rate environment, a gain on the market realising that there are no solvency issues or you just hold and do pretty well anyway.

Have your cake and eat it.

Will respond with my findings.

If you bought these bonds today then capital gains would form a large proportion of your return even if rates stayed unchanged.

The bonds are trading at a discount because prevailing rates are higher than the coupon. The closer you get to maturity, all things equal, that discount will gradually dissipate (i.e. capital gains will accrue).
That's how yield to maturity works.

[winner69]

Yes, its a bit confusing, but the 0.078 means that you buy the bonds at a 7.8% interest rate.

Like you pays $80.47 for a $100 worth of bonds. Get $2.30 per year in interest through to Oct 27 and if Oceania still around you then get the $100 face value

In theory that’s a return of 7.73% pa if NZX done sums right

[jagger]

Like you pays $80.47 for a $100 worth of bonds. Get $2.30 per year in interest through to Oct 27 and if Oceania still around you then get the $100 face value

In theory that’s a return of 7.73% pa if NZX done sums right

Correct, you don't "buy a 7.8% interest rate"

You're buying:
i) 2.3% interest rate (i.e. the "coupon"); and
ii) the paper at a discount to its face value (i.e. price of $80.47 compared to face value of $100).

The two together result in a yield to maturity of 7.73% p.a. if you bought today and held to maturity.

[SailorRob]

SailorRob, you have piqued my interest in the OCA010 notes, with a maturity date of 19/10/2027 with a coupon rate of 2.30%.

I see there is a quote on the market today for someone wanting to acquire some bonds for a rate of 7.8% (!). But nothing on the sell side, so no-one wants to take up such a 'generous' offer. It does make the whole exercise seem a bit hypothetical. Might be interesting if some liquidity did emerge though!

The other issue you would have if you acquired such bonds is that they would fall under IRD 'financial arrangement' rules. I was digging around on the IRD website for some 'worked examples' on this topic and found this:

https://www.taxtechnical.ird.govt.nz/-/media/project/ir/tt/pdfs/determinations/financial-arrangements/financial-arrangements-general/determination-g3.pdf?modified=20211123023345&modified=20211123023345

There is a worked example in that bulletin. But you may need an accountant to understand it, as I don't believe all the steps are fully explained. I will wait with interest on your report back, when you have had a chance to go through the material.

SNOOPY


Ok they got theirs through ASB securities, depending how many you want you may have to wait. They got 200k worth and took 2 weeks.

Ultimately it's the same as buying shares but less liquidity. I see about 50,000 of the 20's have sold today.

If you want hundreds of thousands worth then maybe a broker can find a seller behind the scenes, but to buy via Jarden or whatever you just put your bids in and wait.

As for the tax doc, that's just a simple DCF model where you solve for the net present value to be zero and thus determine the discount rate.

That discount rate is used to determine the income for the tax year. I wouldn't get to bothered about that, the tax is exactly the same, you just pay it on $1 of income the same way as the next $1.

It's just a simple way of calculating the income by determining a yield.

[SailorRob]

If you bought these bonds today then capital gains would form a large proportion of your return even if rates stayed unchanged.

The bonds are trading at a discount because prevailing rates are higher than the coupon. The closer you get to maturity, all things equal, that discount will gradually dissipate (i.e. capital gains will accrue).
That's how yield to maturity works.


Correct, what I mean is a further gain (or 'faster') on a perceived risk change or a market rate change.

[SailorRob]

Like you pays $80.47 for a $100 worth of bonds. Get $2.30 per year in interest through to Oct 27 and if Oceania still around you then get the $100 face value

In theory that’s a return of 7.73% pa if NZX done sums right


Very unlikely they will still be here to pay back the $100.

Bankruptcy seems almost certain.

[SailorRob]

But yes the bonds are there and available in hundreds of thousands of dollars worth at the quoted rates of return.

[jagger]

To help you out with that math Winner , my running totals have the NEW stock on hand 1.4.2023 ( with out resale volumes which we don't know) as follows;
4 villas at $537k
167 Apartments at $1.2m
335 cares suits at $337k
Total new stock on hand = $315 m

The new stuff attracted 39% new margin 2HY2023 while the resale attracted about 22%.

The reason why resale margins appear low is because they have high volumes of care suites which turnover every 2.5 years . So less time for capital gain to accrue.

Also of note is that the new stock value of $315m includes $113m of care suites. A lot of these c/s are grandfathered so will only become available for sale onto the market as the possibly quite healthy residents depart over a longer time period.

The other thing is the Helier is the tail wagging the dog here . Its sales rates and margins are unpredictable with any certainty at this point.

Suffice to say there should be about $315m x .39% = $123m flow onto the P+L over the next few years where the normal NEW sales margin ( excluding resales ) is about $33m per annum.

Anyone who can`t see the value here or still considers things too risky ( after SUMs report today) would be more suited to managed funds. I have very rarely seen such obvious value over my many years of investing.



Agree with everything except assuming the 39% development margin is a new normal.

39% is a high water mark for development margin.
I mean, there's a chance we see 39% with The Helier etc but based on past performance but I wouldn't bank on it being the 'norm' or a baseline assumption.
Oceania have always guided to the long term 'norm' being more like 20-25%. I'd probably conservatively assume that in any forecast and consider anything more to be potential upside.

To play devils advocate on value, the market isn't concerned anymore about 'underlying profit' and 'development margin'.
These two metrics have been shown to be the emperors clothes with valuation focus in the sector squarely shifting to free cash flow generation.
Any speculation about takeovers etc etc needs to look at value through the free cash flow lens because that's going to be the prime concern of any potential purchaser, especially anyone in the private equity world.

[SailorRob]

Agree with everything except assuming the 39% development margin is a new normal.

39% is a high water mark for development margin.
I mean, there's a chance we see 39% with The Helier etc but based on past performance but I wouldn't bank on it being the 'norm' or a baseline assumption.
Oceania have always guided to the long term 'norm' being more like 20-25%. I'd probably conservatively assume that in any forecast and consider anything more to be potential upside.

To play devils advocate on value, the market isn't concerned anymore about 'underlying profit' and 'development margin'.
These two metrics have been shown to be the emperors clothes with valuation focus in the sector squarely shifting to free cash flow generation.
Any speculation about takeovers etc etc needs to look at value through the free cash flow lens because that's going to be the prime concern of any potential purchaser, especially anyone in the private equity world.


Indeed, exactly what I have been trying to express on the 'Listed property' thread.

With OCA these things do eventually show up as cash.

[X-men]

Here we go bull! 79c...

If SP stays 79c....a break through 80c is coming

[bull....]

Here we go bull! 79c...

If SP stays 79c....a break through 80c is coming

yep a decisive break thru 79c should be very positive would be looking for 90c in due course according to the moon cycle

[ronaldson]

Well, it has closed today at 80c. So onwards and upwards?

[X-men]

Should be trading around 80-85 till next August update and sales of other properties go through n we will see the gearing down to 30%...then market will automatically rerating OCA

[winner69]

Oysters and chips for lunch down on the beach tomorrow for me

Property market turned, sector results pretty good (no disasters) so renewed confidence and enthusiasm for RV stops. The tide has turned

We shall never see the OCA shareprice in the 70s again

This from 30/5 last

This time I’m sure I’m spot on….we’d never see the OCA share price in the 70’s again

[Entrep]

I get the whole story, fundamentals, value, etc, but what's holding me back is buying a weak share that has under-performed others in the sector (like SUM) for literally years.

[BlackPeter]

I get the whole story, fundamentals, value, etc, but what's holding me back is buying a weak share that has under-performed others in the sector (like SUM) for literally years.

The funny thing is - you could say the same about SUM. Remember 2015 when Ryman was the star and Summerset the ugly duckling?

True - Summerset turned since then into a beautiful swan ... and Ryman must have got some age related jitters (though well might dart now out of the ashes like a Phoenix).

OCA (as a newer addition to the RV business) still in the cygnet / duckling stage. Are you sure you want to compare a cygnet to a grown up swan and assess their future performance based on their past growth?

Sure - you can, but whether it is a sensible thing to do is a different question.

[SailorRob]

I get the whole story, fundamentals, value, etc, but what's holding me back is buying a weak share that has under-performed others in the sector (like SUM) for literally years.

That's the entire reason you buy...

[Gunner]

Crossing the 10 and 20 ema. The last time the weekly 10 and 20 ema crossed was October 2021.

[winner69]

Crossing the 10 and 20 ema. The last time the weekly 10 and 20 ema crossed was October 2021.

October 2021 share price was 140/150 when 10 and 20 EMA last crossed …been downhill sincere

Hope history doesn’t repeat

[X-men]

This time will be different..OCR paused.. property market reached the button... gearing will be down after the sales on some assets

[Gunner]

Its crossing back up

[SailorRob]

Its crossing back up


On the waxing red moon too.

When you gunner post your track record of using these techniques to predict future price movements. You obviously have one or it would be a waste of time going on about it.

[Fortunecookie]

Wax on, wax off. Don't sweat the technique.

"Don't Sweat the Technique" by Eric B. & Rakim promotes the idea of mastery and originality in art. The song emphasizes the importance of staying true to one's artistic vision and not allowing others to dictate the creative process.

[Fortunecookie]

Wax on, wax off. Don't sweat the technique.

"Don't Sweat the Technique" by Eric B. & Rakim promotes the idea of mastery and originality in art. The song emphasizes the importance of staying true to one's artistic vision and not allowing others to dictate the creative process.

No beef against anyone. Just do what you think is right. I have failed many times perhaps I'm not the best person to listen to.

[SailorRob]

No beef against anyone. Just do what you think is right. I have failed many times perhaps I'm not the best person to listen to.


Exactly, great logic here. If you think it's right then just do it. Don't bother about anything else.

[bull....]

Crossing the 10 and 20 ema. The last time the weekly 10 and 20 ema crossed was October 2021.

10/20 works better on a daily ... profitable roughly 40% of the time

[Maverick]

Agree with everything except assuming the 39% development margin is a new normal.

39% is a high water mark for development margin.
I mean, there's a chance we see 39% with The Helier etc but based on past performance but I wouldn't bank on it being the 'norm' or a baseline assumption.
Oceania have always guided to the long term 'norm' being more like 20-25%. I'd probably conservatively assume that in any forecast and consider anything more to be potential upside...
Yeah , I chewed that over for a while too, Jagger. It does indeed seem an extreme number to take as the “ new normal.”
Here's my rationale. Firstly; the sequences of 6 month new apartment margins for the last 5 years since 2018 (%)...
36…31…30…43…36…30…25…25…26…30…32…40

OCA has been clear they get lower margins in the provinces. The lower margins above in the mid twenties are when they sold down Nelson and Christchurch. The higher margins above are firstly from Browns bay and Meadow bank and the last number sets have Eden , so Auckland centric.
Current stocks are weighted towards Auckland with obviously The Helier “wagging the dog” and probably a few left at Eden.

The thing that makes this absurd margin reality (for now) is that apartment building construction also always has 3-5 years of capital gains baked in at the sell down phase. OCA has also been clear to tell us that until now all construction contracts have been held at rates before the rampant construction price rises of the last few years. So we are getting new retail sales prices now on stuff built at 2019 build prices. And we know how significant building cost increases have been the last 2 years.
What has been the achilles heel of OCAs slow highrise building programme is now currently a boon. Villas of course all happen in a flash from foundation to handover hence about 15% margin or so Arv generally get.

So given the factors above I have concluded it is fair to assume these 35-40% margins, although almost unbelievable, will hold another 1-2 years before settling back to your 25-30% .

That's my thinking but I have given you my workings in the earlier post so you are right to use whatever margin you think is more appropriate. Im curious if you think 39% is still a bit too optimistic Jagger?

[Gunner]

On the waxing red moon too.

When you gunner post your track record of using these techniques to predict future price movements. You obviously have one or it would be a waste of time going on about it.

Its not prediction. It's about avoiding the drawdown

[ValueNZ]

Its not prediction. It's about avoiding the drawdown
It's not prediction, so it must be a fact that OCA will drop. Therefore I'm sure you've got a short position in OCA then, right?

[Gunner]

It's not prediction, so it must be a fact that OCA will drop. Therefore I'm sure you've got a short position in OCA then, right?

I didnt say it would drop. Just commented on the last time it crossed under was October 2021 and now its crossed over.

[ValueNZ]

I didnt say it would drop. Just commented on the last time it crossed under was October 2021 and now its crossed over.
"It's about avoiding the drawdown"...

[Gunner]

"It's about avoiding the drawdown"...

There has been a drawdown since Sept -October 2021

[ValueNZ]

There has been a drawdown since Sept -October 2021
Your attempt at technical analysis sucks, please go away and after studying Oceania's business model then make a post about what you think about it. What I say might be controversial on this forum but, making posts about moving averages add very little to these threads (other than being entertaining to pull apart their argument). There is no real conclusion you can draw from price trends about the future price a stock may be.

Ask yourself the question, even if there were small market inefficiencies where paying attention to moving averages gave you an advantage who do you think would win? Large firms with millions of dollars worth of research and development into algorithms which has been trained to find any trend and place thousands of orders before you can blink, or you on your computer (some have even claimed to day trade on their phone on Sharetrader). Any firm competing with you would definitely be able to place their buy/sell order way quicker than you could thus removing any competitive advantage you could theoretically have.

[Gunner]

Your attempt at technical analysis sucks, please go away and after studying Oceania's business model then make a post about what you think about it. What I say might be controversial on this forum but, making posts about moving averages add very little to these threads (other than being entertaining to pull apart their argument). There is no real conclusion you can draw from price trends about the future price a stock may be.

Ask yourself the question, even if there were small market inefficiencies where paying attention to moving averages gave you an advantage who do you think would win? Large firms with millions of dollars worth of research and development into algorithms which has been trained to find any trend and place thousands of orders before you can blink, or you on your computer (some have even claimed to day trade on their phone on Sharetrader). Any firm competing with you would definitely be able to place their buy/sell order way quicker than you could thus removing any competitive advantage you could theoretically have.

In October 2021 it was 1.40 and now it is 0.80. This is less than ideal.

[winner69]

In October 2021 it was 1.40 and now it is 0.80. This is less than ideal.

……………..deleted

[ValueNZ]

In October 2021 it was 1.40 and now it is 0.80. This is less than ideal.
Not the point, but actually that is a wonderful thing for shareholders looking to pick shares up at a discount. Horrific if you bought at $1.40 and sold at $0.80.

The point is you implied that paying attention to moving averages allows you to avoid future drawdowns. Plain and simple that is utter rubbish.

[Baa_Baa]

The point is you implied that paying attention to moving averages allows you to avoid future drawdowns. Plain and simple that is utter rubbish.

What do you mean by "drawdowns"?

[ValueNZ]

What do you mean by "drawdowns"?
It was just the term that Gunner used. Investopedia says it is "a peak-to-trough decline during a specific period for an investment, trading account, or fund".

[Baa_Baa]

It was just the term that Gunner used. Investopedia says it is "a peak-to-trough decline during a specific period for an investment, trading account, or fund".

Have you any knowledge or experience in the techniques of technical/chart analysis?

[X-men]

I do ....when everyone sell...I sell...when everyone buy...I buy

[ValueNZ]

Have you any knowledge or experience in the techniques of technical/chart analysis?
I have enough knowledge that when ever I see the techniques used in technical analysis, I can explain why that provides you with little information on whether you use it to inform your buying/selling decisions. Always happy to have my mind changed, my beliefs are hardly stuck in stone. A convincing enough argument needs to be presented however and I have yet to come across one that I am unable to rebut.

I am happy to say I have no personal experience with technical analysis. I have always steered clear.

[Gunner]

I have enough knowledge that when ever I see the techniques used in technical analysis, I can explain why that provides you with little information on whether you use it to inform your buying/selling decisions. Always happy to have my mind changed, my beliefs are hardly stuck in stone. A convincing enough argument needs to be presented however and I have yet to come across one that I am unable to rebut.

I am happy to say I have no personal experience with technical analysis. I have always steered clear.

Are you able to rebut with your open mind on the stock price going from 1.40 when the weekly 10 and 20 ema crossed to 0.80 when it crossed again?

[ValueNZ]

Are you able to rebut with your open mind on the stock price going from 1.40 when the weekly 10 and 20 ema crossed to 0.80 when it crossed again?
Sure I could. However, the burden of proof lies on you to prove that the stock price going from $1.40 to 80c is a result of the weekly 10 and 20 ema crossing. Can you do that?

In the same way if I made the claim that there is a teapot orbiting Mars, the burden of proof lies on me.

[Gunner]

Sure I could. However, the burden of proof lies on you to prove that the stock price going from $1.40 to 80c is a result of the weekly 10 and 20 ema crossing. Can you do that?

In the same way if I made the claim that there is a teapot orbiting Mars, the burden of proof lies on me.

No one said it was as a result. What a ridiculous thing to say.

[winner69]

And here I was thinking that a 10/20 crossing was a good sign ……bullish …….just like BlackPeter’s Golden Crosses

Stupid me

[ValueNZ]

No one said it was as a result. What a ridiculous thing to say.
You stated there is a causal relationship not me. Now back up your claim with evidence.

[Gunner]

You stated there is a causal relationship not me. Now back up your claim with evidence.

$1.40 to 0.80

[ValueNZ]

$1.40 to 0.80
I stubbed my toe yesterday and OCA rose 2.5% by market close. Next time I stub my toe I'll make sure to purchase some OCA right away!

See the problem with the statement above? It's correlation vs causation. Now, the two events happened to correlate. But does that mean they are in anyway related to each other? Of course not.

Now the 10/20 ema crossing occurred, and then the stock price fell from $1.40 to 0.80c. The events happened to correlate, are they in anyway related to each other? Maybe, but that's for you to prove since it's your claim. I have no reason to believe they are related events until proven otherwise.

[Gunner]

I stubbed my toe yesterday and OCA rose 2.5% by market close. Next time I stub my toe I'll make sure to purchase some OCA right away!

See the problem with the statement above? It's correlation vs causation. Now, the two events happened to correlate. But does that mean they are in anyway related to each other? Of course not.

Now the 10/20 ema crossing occurred, and then the stock price fell from $1.40 to 0.80c. The events happened to correlate, are they in anyway related to each other? Maybe, but that's for you to prove since it's your claim. I have no reason to believe they are related events until proven otherwise.

Does your toe have anything to do with a stock price or trend? No. I think you've misunderstood. Perhaps an open mind is not what you have.

[justakiwi]

Post after post of pointless debate that is of zero value whatsoever.

[SailorRob]

Oh man I missed the whole show.

ValueNZ destroyed you all, should be ashamed of yourselves.

ValueNZ so far ahead of you all it's not even funny, or if it is, the jokes on you.

BaaBaa went in for a shot and is hiding somewhere back country with tail between the legs as VNZ would be like the most efficient sheep dog you ever seen in herding you home.

[ValueNZ]

Does your toe have anything to do with a stock price or trend? No. I think you've misunderstood. Perhaps an open mind is not what you have.
That's exactly my point! You need to prove that the 10/20 ema crossing over has to do with where a stock price is heading. I have no reason to believe it does. It's become clear you are unable to prove they are related.

[SailorRob]

Post after post of pointless debate that is of zero value whatsoever.


One of the most valuable debates you'll ever see.

If VNZ can teach just one person, that will be of huge advantage to them.

Prob not relevant to OCA I'll give you that.

[SailorRob]

Does your toe have anything to do with a stock price or trend? No. I think you've misunderstood. Perhaps an open mind is not what you have.


My mind is open Gunner, show me the evidence you have for my consideration.

[Gunner]

That's exactly my point! You need to prove that the 10/20 ema crossing over has to do with where a stock price is heading. I have no reason to believe it does. It's become clear you are unable to prove they are related.

The prove is $1.40 to 0.80. Limiting drawdown.

[SailorRob]

The prove is $1.40 to 0.80. Limiting drawdown.

The 'prove'?

I want the god dammed proof you fool

Prove to me that proof is a noun.

[Entrep]

The 10 crossing the 20 is bullish. You are a fool if you believe anything otherwise. Of course it’s one of hundreds / thousands of factors to consider.

[Gunner]

The 10 crossing the 20 is bullish. You are a fool if you believe anything otherwise

Correct. The last time it crossed above was May 2020.

[SailorRob]

The 10 crossing the 20 is bullish. You are a fool if you believe anything otherwise. Of course it’s one of hundreds / thousands of factors to consider.


What do you mean it's 'bullish' what does this mean? Give us a technical definition.

[justakiwi]

Which was precisely my point. This has got to be the worst thread here, for repeatedly going off topic. It is beyond frustrating.

Can you please start a new thread if you want to debate this to death.




Prob not relevant to OCA I'll give you that.

[Baa_Baa]

Oh man I missed the whole show.

ValueNZ destroyed you all, should be ashamed of yourselves.

ValueNZ so far ahead of you all it's not even funny, or if it is, the jokes on you.

BaaBaa went in for a shot and is hiding somewhere back country with tail between the legs as VNZ would be like the most efficient sheep dog you ever seen in herding you home.

I was out getting dinner, lol. So I missed the ignorants arguing the negative. If you don't know anything about something, sometimes it's better not to just rubbish it and make yourself look foolish, before deeply exploring it, using, testing it and decide then whether it has any value.

If it piques your interest as to why every single fund manager, forex trader, futures and options trader, commodities trader etc etc uses TA, as well as FA, then you might want to explore why and what it actually is that they do,

Ok, I'm not here to justify TA, or defend it, I don't care whether you use it or not. As far as I'm concerned genuine TA, actual analysis of the price, trends and patterns is just one useful tool amongst others, like FA etc. It is just another tool in the toolkit for managing my equities, particularly timing buys and sometimes sells.

If I was to simplify it, FA informs me of whether the company is a sound investment. TA informs me of the market sentiment towards the price of that equity, whether it's under or over priced, which in turn informs timing for buying or selling. After all, we are forced to buy or sell in the market, the chart is a visual representation of the whole of market sentiment towards pricing that equity. It is insightful and helpful as to what the market thinks about the equity, ergo the price, its price trend, when that trend changes, etc.

TA, actual price analysis, is helpful imo, giving insights into market sentiment over differing timescales, and whether now is a good time to buy or sell. It does not forecast the future, it is not causal, it does inform probabilities of future market sentiment.

To OCA, TA has been very useful, as surprisingly for a boring RV, OCA is a volatile equity in the market with massive price swings over the past few years. The market price only very rarely actually reflects the 'value', as it over shoots up above, and down below. Volatile equity prices are perfect for TA, it indicates market price sentiment on the low side, the high side, when that is changing, and informs long term investing purchase or sales decisions, and in particular momentum trading.

If you don't want to put the time and effort into even exploring TA, let alone testing and using it, then your opinions about it are worth nothing as you are ignorant and uninformed. If however you did what Sailrob says about company FA, deeply study TA, learn how to use it, backtest proven strategies on your equities, and develop your own strategies, apply them, and then decide whether it was a useful tool, or not, then you would be qualified to pass learned opinion.

Instead of bagging some dude who simply pointed out a weekly MA crossover to the upside.

[SailorRob]

The 10 crossing the 20 is bullish. You are a fool if you believe anything otherwise. Of course it’s one of hundreds / thousands of factors to consider.


Does this person believe, as he isn't a fool, that any stock that does this 10 crossing the 20, will more likely go up than down?

And that anyone that does not believe this is a 'fool'

Has this person then considered all they need to do is look for stocks meeting this requirement and buy them, even with a tiny edge of 51/49 this would make them extremely rich very quickly?

But no, they are not...

They instead seem to have an uncanny ability to lose money instead of using their technique that gives them a slight advantage...

[SailorRob]

I was out getting dinner, lol. So I missed the ignorants arguing the negative. If you don't know anything about something, sometimes it's better not to just rubbish it and make yourself look foolish, before deeply exploring it, using, testing it and decide then whether it has any value.

If it piques your interest as to why every single fund manager, forex trader, futures and options trader, commodities trader etc etc uses TA, as well as FA, then you might want to explore why and what it actually is that they do,

Ok, I'm not here to justify TA, or defend it, I don't care whether you use it or not. As far as I'm concerned genuine TA, actual analysis of the price, trends and patterns is just one useful tool amongst others, like FA etc. It is just another tool in the toolkit for managing my equities, particularly timing buys and sometimes sells.

If I was to simplify it, FA informs me of whether the company is a sound investment. TA informs me of the market sentiment towards the price of that equity, whether it's under or over priced, which in turn informs timing for buying or selling. After all, we are forced to buy or sell in the market, the chart is a visual representation of the whole of market sentiment towards pricing that equity. It is insightful and helpful as to what the market thinks about the equity, ergo the price, its price trend, when that trend changes, etc.

TA, actual price analysis, is helpful imo, giving insights into market sentiment over differing timescales, and whether now is a good time to buy or sell. It does not forecast the future, it is not causal, it does inform probabilities of future market sentiment.

To OCA, TA has been very useful, as surprisingly for a boring RV, OCA is a volatile equity in the market with massive price swings over the past few years. The market price only very rarely actually reflects the 'value', as it over shoots up above, and down below. Volatile equity prices are perfect for TA, it indicates market price sentiment on the low side, the high side, when that is changing, and informs long term investing purchase or sales decisions, and in particular momentum trading.

If you don't want to put the time and effort into even exploring TA, let alone testing and using it, then your opinions about it are worth nothing as you are ignorant and uninformed. If however you did what Sailrob says about company FA, deeply study TA, learn how to use it, backtest proven strategies on your equities, and develop your own strategies, apply them, and then decide whether it was a useful tool, or not, then you would be qualified to pass learned opinion.

Instead of bagging some dude who simply pointed out a weekly MA crossover to the upside.


I have done, spent many years studying them and read 45 fund letters a quarter.

Almost all get destroyed by a simple index fund.

The ones I follow who have a 15 year plus record of beating the market have never mentioned TA once.

If what you say is true, how can you think a human can do it better than a computer.

Cant say it better than this;


'Ask yourself the question, even if there were small market inefficiencies where paying attention to moving averages gave you an advantage who do you think would win? Large firms with millions of dollars worth of research and development into algorithms which has been trained to find any trend and place thousands of orders before you can blink, or you on your computer (some have even claimed to day trade on their phone on Sharetrader). Any firm competing with you would definitely be able to place their buy/sell order way quicker than you could thus removing any competitive advantage you could theoretically have'.

[SailorRob]

If you don't want to put the time and effort into even exploring TA, let alone testing and using it, then your opinions about it are worth nothing as you are ignorant and uninformed.


I don't want to put in the time or effort into exploring dancing naked around a fire to heal my sick friend either, this does not mean my opinions about it are worth nothing or that I'm ignorant as I'm using other principles to determine that I'm not interested, don't need to try myself to know someone is full of S*&^

'it does inform probabilities

Ok, so then it provides some kind of statistical edge in making a purchase or sale?? Can we agree that's what you're saying?

Go on, say it. I'm getting the cannon of destruction ready.

[SailorRob]

I would have thought a computer could go back over a 100 years of hundreds of thousands of charts and easily determine if any patterns had a statistically significant meaning as the the probability of what happened next?

Afterall wall street spends billions of this type of stuff, analysing looking, for anything at all that could give a slight edge.

So surely that data is out there??

'Hey a stock doing this criss cross of Gunners has shown historically that then the chances of up next are better than 50/50... We have the data to prove it'...

We don't need to experiment ourselves, the data is there, the price history is there...

So, show me?

[Baa_Baa]

SailorRob,

You are not qualified to have a discussion on the value of technical analysis, you don't know anything about it and keep reverting to funds underperformance and algo's beating the average Joe. It's irrelevant, it's just your perception. Your bagging of TA and anyone who mentions it is, not helpful. You too ValueNZ.

FA is excellent for identifying investments and monitoring their performance. No one I know doubts that, but surprisingly few have the analytical financial skills to do it.

TA is useful for determining whether now is a good to do buy or sell, in the market, it is the market price sentiment that you are forced to buy within, or sell within. It can be down to the minute, 5 minutes, 15 minutes, an hour, a day, a week, a month, quarter, or year. It is just timing, and just probability. Algo's are irrelevant, a buy signal or sell signal could be day, week, months or even years apart. It's about following the money, up or down. It's about the market price and insight into it. It has nothing to do with the value of the company.

TA has been particularly useful for OCA buys and sells over the past few years, it is a very volitile priced equity (surprisingly).

Anyway, I think that's enough from me, you can have the last word on this. 30 years of people bagging TA and then funnily enough coming around to realising it has some value that compliments their decision making.

[Gunner]

SailorRob,

You are not qualified to have a discussion on the value of technical analysis, you don't know anything about it and keep reverting to funds underperformance and algo's beating the average Joe. It's irrelevant, it's just your perception. Your bagging of TA and anyone who mentions it is, not helpful. You too ValueNZ.

FA is excellent for identifying investments and monitoring their performance. No one I know doubts that, but surprisingly few have the analytical financial skills to do it.

TA is useful for determining whether now is a good to do buy or sell, in the market, it is the market price sentiment that you are forced to buy within, or sell within. It can be down to the minute, 5 minutes, 15 minutes, an hour, a day, a week, a month, quarter, or year. It is just timing, and just probability. Algo's are irrelevant, a buy signal or sell signal could be day, week, months or even years apart. It's about following the money, up or down. It's about the market price and insight into it. It has nothing to do with the value of the company.

TA has been particularly useful for OCA buys and sells over the past few years, it is a very volitile priced equity (surprisingly).

Anyway, I think that's enough from me, you can have the last word on this. 30 years of people bagging TA and then funnily enough coming around to realising it has some value that compliments their decision making.

Well said. To be fair I used to be in the ta is a load of bs camp. It is easy to dismiss because its includes alot of nonsense

You can tell sa doesnt know much about it because he mentions algos as if ta is always day trading. It may be but may not be. Fa with a light touch of ta is the way to go.

Oca clearly has trends. Jan 2020 to current day shows this on the weekly.

[ValueNZ]

I was out getting dinner, lol. So I missed the ignorants arguing the negative. If you don't know anything about something, sometimes it's better not to just rubbish it and make yourself look foolish, before deeply exploring it, using, testing it and decide then whether it has any value.

If it piques your interest as to why every single fund manager, forex trader, futures and options trader, commodities trader etc etc uses TA, as well as FA, then you might want to explore why and what it actually is that they do,
Practically every one of those fund managers, traders ect underperform after you account for fees. There are a couple examples that are the exception to the rule, but to say your average investor (or even the brightest ones) could implement TA to outperform is probably wrong, and will lead to most people underperforming even a simple index fund.

Ok, I'm not here to justify TA, or defend it, I don't care whether you use it or not. As far as I'm concerned genuine TA, actual analysis of the price, trends and patterns is just one useful tool amongst others, like FA etc. It is just another tool in the toolkit for managing my equities, particularly timing buys and sometimes sells. How have your investments performed over the long term?

If I was to simplify it, FA informs me of whether the company is a sound investment. TA informs me of the market sentiment towards the price of that equity, whether it's under or over priced, which in turn informs timing for buying or selling. After all, we are forced to buy or sell in the market, the chart is a visual representation of the whole of market sentiment towards pricing that equity. It is insightful and helpful as to what the market thinks about the equity, ergo the price, its price trend, when that trend changes, etc
TA definitely doesn't tell you whether an equity is over priced or under priced. Whether an equity is priced correctly is fully dependent on if the market cap of a company is equal to the sum of its future cashflows, discounted to account for TVOM. Analysis of financial statements and studying the company can help with getting the estimated future cash flow as accurate as possible plus using a margin of safety to account for errors.

TA, actual price analysis, is helpful imo, giving insights into market sentiment over differing timescales, and whether now is a good time to buy or sell. It does not forecast the future, it is not causal, it does inform probabilities of future market sentiment.
Can you provide evidence for this claim?

To OCA, TA has been very useful, as surprisingly for a boring RV, OCA is a volatile equity in the market with massive price swings over the past few years. The market price only very rarely actually reflects the 'value', as it over shoots up above, and down below. Volatile equity prices are perfect for TA, it indicates market price sentiment on the low side, the high side, when that is changing, and informs long term investing purchase or sales decisions, and in particular momentum trading.
Knowing all this TA has allowed you to time the market then I assume? Sold when the moving averages crossed over in 2021 (I'll take Gunners word for it, don't know if it's actually true). Presumably you are only now getting back into the market with the cross over to the upside.

If you don't want to put the time and effort into even exploring TA, let alone testing and using it, then your opinions about it are worth nothing as you are ignorant and uninformed. I have put in the time and effort exploring TA. Finance is practically all I can think about all day, I wish TA worked and provided me with an edge. But I don't believe it does, and believe me I've done plenty of research. Send me some resources and I'll take a look.

If however you did what Sailrob says about company FA, deeply study TA, learn how to use it, backtest proven strategies on your equities, and develop your own strategies, apply them, and then decide whether it was a useful tool, or not, then you would be qualified to pass learned opinion Backtests often work on assumptions which cannot be made going forward in the future. Theres been some humorous ones where thousand percent+ CAGR's can be made over for example a decade, but it's ridiculous to say they would continue going forward in the future.

Instead of bagging some dude who simply pointed out a weekly MA crossover to the upside.That plus the claim that it would affect the future stock price. Bad theories should be scrutinised. I was, and am still happy to be provided with any related relationship between the two.

Ten characters needed for a reply.

[winner69]

Many crossovers on the rainbow MA chart

If charts are an indication of investor/market sentiment one would have to say OCA still sucks

[SailorRob]

SailorRob,

You are not qualified to have a discussion on the value of technical analysis, you don't know anything about it and keep reverting to funds underperformance and algo's beating the average Joe. It's irrelevant, it's just your perception. Your bagging of TA and anyone who mentions it is, not helpful. You too ValueNZ.

FA is excellent for identifying investments and monitoring their performance. No one I know doubts that, but surprisingly few have the analytical financial skills to do it.

TA is useful for determining whether now is a good to do buy or sell, in the market, it is the market price sentiment that you are forced to buy within, or sell within. It can be down to the minute, 5 minutes, 15 minutes, an hour, a day, a week, a month, quarter, or year. It is just timing, and just probability. Algo's are irrelevant, a buy signal or sell signal could be day, week, months or even years apart. It's about following the money, up or down. It's about the market price and insight into it. It has nothing to do with the value of the company.

TA has been particularly useful for OCA buys and sells over the past few years, it is a very volitile priced equity (surprisingly).

Anyway, I think that's enough from me, you can have the last word on this. 30 years of people bagging TA and then funnily enough coming around to realising it has some value that compliments their decision making.


BaaBaa,

You are much smarter than this, and you have the ability to form much stronger arguments.

All you need to do is consider what I have said and you will see the light. For your thesis to be correct we just need to choose the method you rate the highest and look at historic charts to see if it had any ability to have a slight probability of making a slightly better buy sell decision. How can that be wrong?

Seeing as you both can use TA so well, lets use it to get $100,000 to a charity of your choice.

Over the next 12 Months you and Gunner can use your TA wizard skills on 100 different companies to predict a probability on a buy/sell decision and if you can show any statistically significant advantage I will donate 100k to a charity of your choice, super easy to do, let's go.

Where is the evidence??

[justakiwi]

In a more than likely, futile attempt to get this thread back on track:

Jarden’s contribution to the media “debate:”

https://i.stuff.co.nz/business/opinion-analysis/300925334/are-retirement-villages-really-superprofiters (https://i.stuff.co.nz/business/opinion-analysis/300925334/are-retirement-villages-really-superprofiters)

(cross posted)

[SailorRob]

In a more than likely, futile attempt to get this thread back on track:

Jarden’s contribution to the media “debate:”

https://i.stuff.co.nz/business/opinion-analysis/300925334/are-retirement-villages-really-superprofiters (https://i.stuff.co.nz/business/opinion-analysis/300925334/are-retirement-villages-really-superprofiters)

(cross posted)

As with banks, these critics seem to have the ability to find businesses that have 'super profits' so why don't they buy the stocks?

Good article thanks, and highlights the issues with developer margin that I've been on about for a long time. It's not real.

[percy]

In a more than likely, futile attempt to get this thread back on track:

Jarden’s contribution to the media “debate:”

https://i.stuff.co.nz/business/opinion-analysis/300925334/are-retirement-villages-really-superprofiters (https://i.stuff.co.nz/business/opinion-analysis/300925334/are-retirement-villages-really-superprofiters)

(cross posted)

Thank you for posting a link to something worth reading on this thread.

[Entrep]

What do you mean it's 'bullish' what does this mean? Give us a technical definition.

Perhaps the "fool" call was harsh, apologies for that.

But, if you consider what fundamentally the 10 crossing over the 20 means, the recent price action (PA) has been higher than the longer term PA. That is bullish, FULL STOP.

Whether it means the trend will continue, it will be higher tomorrow, is another matter.

Of course, any MA number you want to make up and use can be bullish/bearish. The 3005 MA crossing over the 10,344, for example.

But my original statement stands. The 10 crossing the 20 is bullish. That it maths and cannot be disputed.

Whatever the price did a few years back when this same thing occurred has ZERO bearing on whether it is a bullish signal right now.

[BlackPeter]

Perhaps the "fool" call was harsh, apologies for that.

But, if you consider what fundamentally the 10 crossing over the 20 means, the recent price action (PA) has been higher than the longer term PA. That is bullish, FULL STOP.

Whether it means the trend will continue, it will be higher tomorrow, is another matter.

Of course, any MA number you want to make up and use can be bullish/bearish. The 3005 MA crossing over the 10,344, for example.

But my original statement stands. The 10 crossing the 20 is bullish. That it maths and cannot be disputed.

Whatever the price did a few years back when this same thing occurred has ZERO bearing on whether it is a bullish signal right now.

Always good to call a spade a spade ... but anyway, I think the problem of the resident troll is that he does not understand maths or specifically statistics and it appears he tries to compensate that with arrogance and aggression.

Anybody else understands that certain signals point (with a defined likelihood) to a certain outcome.

"The trend is your friend" is one of these examples: If you have an established trend, it is more likely that the next data point continues this trend. Does not mean though, that the trend can't change.

But unless the likelihood is 100% (which it won't be for any future looking indicator), individual events mean absolutely nothing, you need a statistical relevant sample to measure the correlation.

But trying to explain this to a troll is like throwing pearls to the sows. Better spare your pearls for more worthy recipients and put the sows on ignore. So much more relaxing.

[winner69]

…preamble …..

"The trend is your friend" is one of these examples: If you have an established trend, it is more likely that the next data point continues this trend. Does not mean though, that the trend can't change.

…bit extra ...

Jeez Peter, it’s Matariki and we meant to be happy not having to face up to the ‘established downtrend’ that the OCA share price is in means it is ‘more likely’ the share price will continue to head down.

But atbleast you said things can change

[SailorRob]

Perhaps the "fool" call was harsh, apologies for that.

But, if you consider what fundamentally the 10 crossing over the 20 means, the recent price action (PA) has been higher than the longer term PA. That is bullish, FULL STOP.

Whether it means the trend will continue, it will be higher tomorrow, is another matter.

Of course, any MA number you want to make up and use can be bullish/bearish. The 3005 MA crossing over the 10,344, for example.

But my original statement stands. The 10 crossing the 20 is bullish. That it maths and cannot be disputed.

Whatever the price did a few years back when this same thing occurred has ZERO bearing on whether it is a bullish signal right now.

Yes I agree with all that.

Good well explained post.

[SailorRob]

Always good to call a spade a spade ... but anyway, I think the problem of the resident troll is that he does not understand maths or specifically statistics and it appears he tries to compensate that with arrogance and aggression.

Anybody else understands that certain signals point (with a defined likelihood) to a certain outcome.

"The trend is your friend" is one of these examples: If you have an established trend, it is more likely that the next data point continues this trend. Does not mean though, that the trend can't change.

But unless the likelihood is 100% (which it won't be for any future looking indicator), individual events mean absolutely nothing, you need a statistical relevant sample to measure the correlation.

But trying to explain this to a troll is like throwing pearls to the sows. Better spare your pearls for more worthy recipients and put the sows on ignore. So much more relaxing.

Or simply shut the troll down and get 100k to your favourite charity at the same time.

But you can't.

As your mouth keeps writing cheques your other end can't cash.

[SailorRob]

Always good to call a spade a spade ... but anyway, I think the problem of the resident troll is that he does not understand maths or specifically statistics and it appears he tries to compensate that with arrogance and aggression.

Anybody else understands that certain signals point (with a defined likelihood) to a certain outcome.

"The trend is your friend" is one of these examples: If you have an established trend, it is more likely that the next data point continues this trend. Does not mean though, that the trend can't change.

But unless the likelihood is 100% (which it won't be for any future looking indicator), individual events mean absolutely nothing, you need a statistical relevant sample to measure the correlation.

But trying to explain this to a troll is like throwing pearls to the sows. Better spare your pearls for more worthy recipients and put the sows on ignore. So much more relaxing.

Surely the data exists to prove the next data point is more likely than not to do something specific based on the last data point?

Please provide the evidence.

The evidence provided so far, that BP says its so, is actually counter evidence!

[SailorRob]

Always good to call a spade a spade ... but anyway, I think the problem of the resident troll is that he does not understand maths or specifically statistics and it appears he tries to compensate that with arrogance and aggression.

Anybody else understands that certain signals point (with a defined likelihood) to a certain outcome.

"The trend is your friend" is one of these examples: If you have an established trend, it is more likely that the next data point continues this trend. Does not mean though, that the trend can't change.

But unless the likelihood is 100% (which it won't be for any future looking indicator), individual events mean absolutely nothing, you need a statistical relevant sample to measure the correlation.

But trying to explain this to a troll is like throwing pearls to the sows. Better spare your pearls for more worthy recipients and put the sows on ignore. So much more relaxing.

And please provide evidence you have used this 'trend is your friend' to obtain better than average results. I assume you can just use this on an index fund, thus easily being able to outperform the market.

[ValueNZ]

Always good to call a spade a spade ... but anyway, I think the problem of the resident troll is that he does not understand maths or specifically statistics and it appears he tries to compensate that with arrogance and aggression.

Anybody else understands that certain signals point (with a defined likelihood) to a certain outcome.

"The trend is your friend" is one of these examples: If you have an established trend, it is more likely that the next data point continues this trend. Does not mean though, that the trend can't change.

But unless the likelihood is 100% (which it won't be for any future looking indicator), individual events mean absolutely nothing, you need a statistical relevant sample to measure the correlation.

But trying to explain this to a troll is like throwing pearls to the sows. Better spare your pearls for more worthy recipients and put the sows on ignore. So much more relaxing.
It appears that only SailorRob and I actually understand the math behind what it means to say "If you have an established trend, it is more likely that the next data point continues this trend." Just for fun I decided to throw some numbers around in a spreadsheet.

Let's say for example that 10 crossing over the 20 means that there is a 50% probability that a stock will go up 10% in a week when you sell it, and there is a 50% probability that a stock will go down 9% in a week when you sell it. That's an expected value of 1.005 per trade, a tiny statistical edge. Lets say you can only manage 10 trades per week (there are tens of thousands of publicly traded companies in the world you could easily screen for). Your average return in a year therefore becomes 1.005^(10*52), an average return of 1238% p.a.

Don't like the numbers I've used? Fine, change them yourself but understand these tiny statistical edges give you massive returns due to the nature of compounding. I am aware I haven't accounted for the distribution of the returns the figure is just an average to show a point.

[justakiwi]

I asked nicely the first time, but FFS! Take this argument elsewhere!!!! :mad ;:

[SailorRob]

I asked nicely the first time, but FFS! Take this argument elsewhere!!!! :mad ;:

You remind me so much of a super stern relief teacher I used to have. Mrs Still was her name.

You're not the boss of us.

[justakiwi]

You have zero respect or consideration for those of us here, who wish to discuss OCA, without the continual side-tracking arguments.

I'm done with the egotistical, competitive BS. Enjoy your pointless, self-serving debate. I am done with this thread.






You remind me so much of a super stern relief teacher I used to have. Mrs Still was her name.

You're not the boss of us.

[mistaTea]

You have zero respect or consideration for those of us here, who wish to discuss OCA, without the continual side-tracking arguments.

I'm done with the egotistical, competitive BS. Enjoy your pointless, self-serving debate. I am done with this thread.

I enjoy SB’s stinging rebukes.

I am yet to see anyone actually take apart any of his arguments.

And nobody seems to rush in to accept his various wagers…

You can’t really dictate what people wish to discuss sweetheart.

They seem to mostly tie it back to OCA (eventually) anyway.

[winner69]

Direct Broking have this Top Buys (and Sells) weekly list. The top share in the BUY list is there because the BUY value traded in that stock exceeded the SELL value traded in that stock by the largest degree, last week.

Well OCA was amongst the top buys last week

And SUM and ARV were amongst the top sells

Maybe (don’t ask me to prove that it lol) punters are moving out of SUM and ARV and moving into OCA.

Maybe they’ve finally seen the light of day and backingba winner

[X-men]

Oh.. whatever U guys debating about...I don't get it...all I know is SP is hitting 80c and the trend is bullish...

Kiaora!!! Happy Matariki.....

[ValueNZ]

I enjoy SB’s stinging rebukes.

I am yet to see anyone actually take apart any of his arguments.

And nobody seems to rush in to accept his various wagers…

You can’t really dictate what people wish to discuss sweetheart.

They seem to mostly tie it back to OCA (eventually) anyway.
I think it's in the nature of these threads that they get sidetracked, but eventually when someone makes an actual post about OCA everyone is quickly eager to discuss it. Who cares about the interim between the actual OCA posts. The posts are almost always enjoyable to read and respond to. Don't like it? Skim past the posts and don't let it bother you.

[mistaTea]

Oh.. whatever U guys debating about...I don't get it...all I know is SP is hitting 80c and the trend is bullish...

Kiaora!!! Happy Matariki.....

Chur!

Would be good to know how Maori valued their retirement village stocks too (before colonisation) on this weekend of deep reflection!

Could provide some valuable insights into OCA!

AHHH HUHUHUHUHUHU!

[bottomfeeder]

Just my fuzzy logic. But it went to 84 not long ago, psychology would dictate that it will get there again and then there will be resistance to go higher for a bit. Mind you that was cum dividend of 1.5 cents. However I don't think most investors are that mathematically rational.

[SailorRob]

I am genuinely sorry for my part in upsetting JAK, seriously, why is she so wound up?

Is it not easy to just ignore the thread for a couple of days and then next time you look at it, simply scroll past all the BS and jump back in where it's interesting to you again?

Come on, not that hard, just don't read the posts that are obviously about a topic that annoys you.

Not the end of the world.

Cheers MistaTea, you're right nobody seems to be able to actually provide any evidence against what I'm saying.

Even if BaaBaa has had success with this BS it could be down to luck, no way does he know that it's statistically significant what he claims to be able to do.

BlackPeter has really put their foot in it, by claiming that the last data point predicts the next in some statistically significant way. BaaBaa is smart enough not to go that far even though I asked him to. But ultimately he said the same thing, that prior data points lead to probability for future ones to be statistically related to them.

BaaBaa then messed up by claiming I'm not qualified to speak on the topic, meaning because I haven't tried this rubbish. No logic whatsoever in that claim.

My bets are genuine, happy to type them up into a formal document and use the same online format Buffett used to destroy the hedge funds.

All these gurus need to do is select 100 different companies chart patterns and tell us with each respective one, what comes next.

I'd have to do some work to see whats required for it to be statistically significant, but I know it won't even come down to that close a debate.

They will be destroyed well before that and they know it.

Frustrating thing is I know BaaBaa is smarter than this, the rest I know are not.

[Gunner]

I am genuinely sorry for my part in upsetting JAK, seriously, why is she so wound up?

Is it not easy to just ignore the thread for a couple of days and then next time you look at it, simply scroll past all the BS and jump back in where it's interesting to you again?

Come on, not that hard, just don't read the posts that are obviously about a topic that annoys you.

Not the end of the world.

Cheers MistaTea, you're right nobody seems to be able to actually provide any evidence against what I'm saying.

Even if BaaBaa has had success with this BS it could be down to luck, no way does he know that it's statistically significant what he claims to be able to do.

BlackPeter has really put their foot in it, by claiming that the last data point predicts the next in some statistically significant way. BaaBaa is smart enough not to go that far even though I asked him to. But ultimately he said the same thing, that prior data points lead to probability for future ones to be statistically related to them.

BaaBaa then messed up by claiming I'm not qualified to speak on the topic, meaning because I haven't tried this rubbish. No logic whatsoever in that claim.

My bets are genuine, happy to type them up into a formal document and use the same online format Buffett used to destroy the hedge funds.

All these gurus need to do is select 100 different companies chart patterns and tell us with each respective one, what comes next.

I'd have to do some work to see whats required for it to be statistically significant, but I know it won't even come down to that close a debate.

They will be destroyed well before that and they know it.

Frustrating thing is I know BaaBaa is smarter than this, the rest I know are not.

And yet $1.40 to 0.80. You can see for yourself if you backtest. You wont but that's ok. I do not feel the need to insult.

People who insult on an anyomous forum usually are projecting their insecurities on to anonymous people they have no knowledge of. There are all types of characters in society. Some good and some bad.

[RTM]

And yet $1.40 to 0.80. You can see for yourself if you backtest. You wont but that's ok. I do not feel the need to insult.

People who insult on an anyomous forum usually are projecting their insecurities on to anonymous people they have no knowledge of. There are all types of characters in society. Some good and some bad.

Be good/helpful when we get some more OCA related data to consider.
Not too far away.

https://www.nzx.com/announcements/413972

PS: I quite enjoy the banter. As long as it doesn’t get nasty. There is no need.

[SailorRob]

And yet $1.40 to 0.80. You can see for yourself if you backtest. You wont but that's ok. I do not feel the need to insult.

People who insult on an anyomous forum usually are projecting their insecurities on to anonymous people they have no knowledge of. There are all types of characters in society. Some good and some bad.


Yes I can see that clearly Gunner.

Very good providing me with one example, what I want is 'prove' that this method is statistically significant.

I refuse to even consider that you could be so clueless to thing one example is a back test 'prove'

Yes I am extremely insecure, what of it?

So my fellow 'Gunner' if I can provide one example for you to back test that shows the opposite happening, the cross then a move which is opposite to your theory... WHAT THEN????

[Gunner]

Yes I can see that clearly Gunner.

Very good providing me with one example, what I want is 'prove' that this method is statistically significant.

I refuse to even consider that you could be so clueless to thing one example is a back test 'prove'

Yes I am extremely insecure, what of it?

So my fellow 'Gunner' if I can provide one example for you to back test that shows the opposite happening, the cross then a move which is opposite to your theory... WHAT THEN????


"to thing one example"

Ironic. Lol

[SailorRob]

"to thing one example"

Ironic. Lol


Yes, I'll give you that. Some classic irony right there. Well spotted.

[Gunner]

Yes, I'll give you that. Some classic irony right there. Well spotted.

You didnt give that one. I highlighted your hypocrisy. Probably best not to be a hypocrite but I understand there are all sorts in society.

[SailorRob]

You didnt give that one. I highlighted your hypocrisy. Probably best not to be a hypocrite but I understand there are all sorts in society.


I would argue that it was a typo, whereas most of the things I mock stem from a limited proficiency in the English language.

Prove instead of proof is not a typo, there instead of their etc..

If my general command of the language was even 1/10 as bad as you're then I'd admit I waz a hippocrit