OCA - Oceania Group - retirement villages

[ronaldson]

Did anyone else notice that a quarter of a million shares traded on-market at $0.80 at the open this morning?.

That will have addressed most of an overhang in the orderbook that has persisted for some time now and while new sellers will be tempted at that price it does represent something of a marker. Bring on the ASM later this month and a few positive comments from the Chair/CEO could easily lead to the re-rate many posters on this thread (myself included) have been anticipating.

[winner69]

Did anyone else notice that a quarter of a million shares traded on-market at $0.80 at the open this morning?.

That will have addressed most of an overhang in the orderbook that has persisted for some time now and while new sellers will be tempted at that price it does represent something of a marker. Bring on the ASM later this month and a few positive comments from the Chair/CEO could easily lead to the re-rate many posters on this thread (myself included) have been anticipating.

Been a fair bit of selling since then .....I hope not by punters on this thread after the good posts over the weekend

Maybe bull's range trading 74/79 is the reason and some jumped at the 80 cents bid at open today

[Baa_Baa]

Been a fair bit of selling since then .....I hope not by punters on this thread after the good posts over the weekend

Maybe bull's range trading 74/79 is the reason and some jumped at the 80 cents bid at open today

There's a lot of very low vol/value trades swinging the price around, for example the drop into $0.77 at 2:28 was on 4 shares. The drop into $0.76 at 2:13 was on 1 share.

[winner69]

There's a lot of very low vol/value trades swinging the price around, for example the drop into $0.77 at 2:28 was on 4 shares. The drop into $0.76 at 2:13 was on 1 share.

Some reasonable sized trades have pushed price diwn to 76 though

[winner69]

You’d have to say downward selling pressure since opening at 80 cents …..much higher volumes going down than up since

[winner69]

Another hour or so to go today and tomorrows another day so no real worries

[ronaldson]

You’d have to say downward selling pressure since opening at 80 cents …..much higher volumes going down than up since

Yes, over 563k traded today so far at VWAP of 78.25c notwithstanding the significant opening trade. The market is an interesting phenomenon.

I long ago learned that even when you are optimistic there are always sellers despite being unable to fathom why. Clearly it will take some news for a breakout, and depending on the nature of the revelation it could go in either direction. But I still feel the odds favour the upside.

[winner69]

Yes, over 563k traded today so far at VWAP of 78.25c notwithstanding the significant opening trade. The market is an interesting phenomenon.

I long ago learned that even when you are optimistic there are always sellers despite being unable to fathom why. Clearly it will take some news for a breakout, and depending on the nature of the revelation it could go in either direction. But I still feel the odds favour the upside.

I’m not expecting much in the way of how things going so far in F24…maybe a ‘sales ahead of same period last year’ and maybe an update on how the disposal of the unwanted sites going.

Key thing is half year in November and what Underlying Earnings are ……hopefully heaps more than $30m as anything less will be a big fail and major disappointment …….and an indication that free cash flows are tracking as per Mavericks chart (the one that showed future +ve cash flow)

[bottomfeeder]

I have a feeling they may have sold another surplus property, thus cash flow has improved. We should see a return to higher percentage of profit dividends. But unfortunately for every buyer there is a seller, so who is in the know, the buyers or sellers. A bit uneasy about the yoyo prices, but still have longer term confidence in this stock.

[X-men]

Bull...U are right...rinse and repeat....lol

[winner69]

Open with a bang at 80 cents …close with a whimper at 76 cents

VWAP declined over the day and end up at 77.76

TA experts could getting interested ….Fridays candle was green with no shadows …todays red with no shadows. Must mean something but at least no hammer time …I think

[Rawz]

I listened to this podcast over the weekend and the host and guest were talking about how the thicker the research folder on a stock is, the more of a dog it is.

Then I wondered if this could correlate to number of posts on sharetrader..

OCA has over 16,000 posts vs say great performer MFT has 1,300 posts.

Kinda interesting. Probably means nothing..

I hold OCA and don’t hold MFT lol

[X-men]

Don't say a dog stock Rawz....U will get slaughtered here!!!! Delete your post before all the fans here give red button!! Bad omen!!!?

[Habits]

A bit uneasy about the yoyo prices, but still have longer term confidence in this stock.

Is it normal to get volatility before an up-move. Shake out any nervous holders

[winner69]

I listened to this podcast over the weekend and the host and guest were talking about how the thicker the research folder on a stock is, the more of a dog it is.

Then I wondered if this could correlate to number of posts on sharetrader..

OCA has over 16,000 posts vs say great performer MFT has 1,300 posts.

Kinda interesting. Probably means nothing..

I hold OCA and don’t hold MFT lol

At least you didn't mention PEB in your correlation

On a posts per year basis OCA scores 1,855 while PEB is 1,175

MFT on other hand average is 71

Seems your theory has great merit ….thicker research file / ST posts the more a dog stock it is

[bull....]

Bull...U are right...rinse and repeat....lol

has to go back to 74c yet. so far following same as last time though lets see

[Bjauck]

I listened to this podcast over the weekend and the host and guest were talking about how the thicker the research folder on a stock is, the more of a dog it is.

Then I wondered if this could correlate to number of posts on sharetrader..

OCA has over 16,000 posts vs say great performer MFT has 1,300 posts.

Kinda interesting. Probably means nothing..

I hold OCA and don’t hold MFT lol MFT is in smelly grinding haulage. OCA is in beloved real estate development along with tax funded and government price controlled care. So more emotional involvement perhaps with lots to love and hate…even if not personally invested therein. OCA thread seems also to be a proxy thread for the sector as a whole, along with general frustration with property and the government!

Disc: Shareholder in both.

[SailorRob]

OCA is in beloved real estate development along with tax funding, a billion dollar unregulated float and government price controlled care.

Lets not forget the actual important bit.

[X-men]

Here we go bull...where from now? Down to 50c?

[bull....]

who knows lol but fundamentally maybe one could argue its not worth more than 80c at the moment considering it gets pummelled everytime recently it nears it

[ValueNZ]

who knows lol but fundamentally maybe one could argue its not worth more than 80c at the moment considering it gets pummelled everytime recently it nears it

What idiot would argue that?

[winner69]

REINZ property sales data for July

Median price hanging around 770k/780k last few months ….at least not collapsing

But sales volumes aren’t too flash still …trend in chart ……I’d hazard a guess that OCA (and others) are still struggling to see much in way of sales increase at the moment.

Maybe Brett will tell us that soon

[Sideshow Bob]

Just received from Craigs.....

You are a holder of Oceania Healthcare (OCA) shares.

OCA is one of the largest aged care/retirement operators in New Zealand. OCA’s weighting towards aged care has differentiated it from others in the sector. However, the company’s development pipeline is now focused on increasing the share of retirement units and moving to a continuum of care model. With the company indicating it plans to further lift its greenfield build rate as its brownfields pipe is completed, sustainable cashflow breakeven still appears to be years away – possibly putting pressure on their balance sheet.

Given this, we believe that investors would be better served having their funds in Ryman Healthcare (RYM). RYM has one of New Zealand’s most attractive retirement/aged care portfolios in terms of locations and mix of assets within villages, while the expansion into Australia remains promising. They managed the COVID-19 period very well, both from a resident safety and operational point of view. However, the disruptions caused by intermittent lockdowns, followed by a softening in the housing market have highlighted some of the inherent risks faced by the business as it looks to grow. With a needs-based offering, an ageing population, and a growth runway into the larger Australian market, the long-term outlook remains attractive for RYM. Following the capital raising earlier in the year, with their repaired balance sheet, change in capital management policy, and adjustments to its future development mix, RYM is taking the right steps to recover after a disappointing period of share price performance.

Our analysts rate Ryman Healthcare an ADD, with a 12month target price of $7.87 versus the current $6.60 share price.

If you would like to discuss this further, please do not hesitate to contact us.

[Lego_Man]

Just received from Craigs.....

You are a holder of Oceania Healthcare (OCA) shares.

OCA is one of the largest aged care/retirement operators in New Zealand. OCA’s weighting towards aged care has differentiated it from others in the sector. However, the company’s development pipeline is now focused on increasing the share of retirement units and moving to a continuum of care model. With the company indicating it plans to further lift its greenfield build rate as its brownfields pipe is completed, sustainable cashflow breakeven still appears to be years away – possibly putting pressure on their balance sheet.

Given this, we believe that investors would be better served having their funds in Ryman Healthcare (RYM). RYM has one of New Zealand’s most attractive retirement/aged care portfolios in terms of locations and mix of assets within villages, while the expansion into Australia remains promising. They managed the COVID-19 period very well, both from a resident safety and operational point of view. However, the disruptions caused by intermittent lockdowns, followed by a softening in the housing market have highlighted some of the inherent risks faced by the business as it looks to grow. With a needs-based offering, an ageing population, and a growth runway into the larger Australian market, the long-term outlook remains attractive for RYM. Following the capital raising earlier in the year, with their repaired balance sheet, change in capital management policy, and adjustments to its future development mix, RYM is taking the right steps to recover after a disappointing period of share price performance.

Our analysts rate Ryman Healthcare an ADD, with a 12month target price of $7.87 versus the current $6.60 share price.

If you would like to discuss this further, please do not hesitate to contact us.


That's interesting. Craigs just initiated on ARV as Overweight, which has replaced OCA as their foil for RYM (which they also have as Outperform). "We strongly prefer ARV" (to OCA).

Craig's recommendations tend to move the market (just look at what happened to Winton when they initiated) so this is definitely short term negative for OCA.

[Rawz]

Wonder how big Craigs research folder on OCA is?

[winner69]

Obviously Craig’s guru analyst have a different model to Mavericks to come and say - However, the company’s development pipeline is now focused on increasing the share of retirement units and moving to a continuum of care model. With the company indicating it plans to further lift its greenfield build rate as its brownfields pipe is completed, sustainable cashflow breakeven still appears to be years away – possibly putting pressure on their balance sheet.

Market don’t like this sort of talk …big challenge for Brett at ASM to allay market fears over cash flow and debt

[Lego_Man]

Wonder how big Craigs research folder on OCA is?

If i could summarise their view on OCA it would be that they have too much care, and that their development strategy is higher risk than ARV.

[bull....]

Obviously Craig’s guru analyst have a different model to Mavericks to come and say - However, the company’s development pipeline is now focused on increasing the share of retirement units and moving to a continuum of care model. With the company indicating it plans to further lift its greenfield build rate as its brownfields pipe is completed, sustainable cashflow breakeven still appears to be years away – possibly putting pressure on their balance sheet.

Market don’t like this sort of talk …big challenge for Brett at ASM to allay market fears over cash flow and debt

confirms why no one wants to pay more than 80c recently

[ronaldson]

That announcement could indeed account for the current price "flop" weakness from 80cps on Monday. I don't think cashflow is at imminent risk in the near term thou.

Perhaps another negative factor is Labours' proposal to fund the GST zero rating of fruit and veg by eliminating the deductibility of depreciation on buildings used commercially. I see OCA charged just over $11m depreciation on buildings and care suites in FY23 so is that affected?

I realise this depreciation is not a cash expense but if it can't be taken as a charge against profits then tax is higher. I notice the ARG share price is very weak presently and all the listed property entities would take a hit.

I presume that won't happen if a National/ACT coalition takes office but still it needs to be factored in presently as uncertainty prevails. Labour clearly has no regard for tax principles, and Green/Te Pati Maori policies would need major tax raises if ever implemented.

[Entrep]

These brokers really all are a bunch of crooks.

[bull....]

That announcement could indeed account for the current price "flop" weakness from 80cps on Monday. I don't think cashflow is at imminent risk in the near term thou.

Perhaps another negative factor is Labours' proposal to fund the GST zero rating of fruit and veg by eliminating the deductibility of depreciation on buildings used commercially. I see OCA charged just over $11m depreciation on buildings and care suites in FY23 so is that affected?

I realise this depreciation is not a cash expense but if it can't be taken as a charge against profits then tax is higher. I notice the ARG share price is very weak presently and all the listed property entities would take a hit.

I presume that won't happen if a National/ACT coalition takes office but still it needs to be factored in presently as uncertainty prevails. Labour clearly has no regard for tax principles, and Green/Te Pati Maori policies would need major tax raises if ever implemented.

national first took depreciation off yrs ago they came out today saying they will not comment about if they dis-agree with labours position on depreciation therefore i read they will likely do the same if elected

[thegreatestben]

Listened to Chris Bishop speak to a group I attend, he said it's difficult for National to commit to some policies as it's going to depend on how cooked the books are currently. At the time we were discussing whether National would commit to bringing back tax deductions for interest and getting rid of ring fencing for residential rentals.

[bull....]

this just out from inghams

Similar to Australia, underlying total cost growth (+12.9%) was driven by an increase in feed costs (+$24.8 million), and growth across a range of other input costs including ingredients, fuel, freight, cooking oil, utilities, and repairs and maintenance costs all exceeding general inflation.

looks like those increased funding fund's going to be eaten up by higher chicken prices

[percy]

this just out from inghams

Similar to Australia, underlying total cost growth (+12.9%) was driven by an increase in feed costs (+$24.8 million), and growth across a range of other input costs including ingredients, fuel, freight, cooking oil, utilities, and repairs and maintenance costs all exceeding general inflation.

looks like those increased funding fund's going to be eaten up by higher chicken prices

That's fowl news...

[Muse]

That's fowl news...

lol wittiest comment of the week

[BlackPeter]

Part 6 - Summary and quantifying the bottom line for "care".

So the rest is really simple….

It is child's play to anticipate that the DHB fees FY 23 is going to be around $190m. Take whatever yellow line forecast you want to work out the INCREASE of care profit.
I.e. I have used 4% therefore my expectations is $190m x 4% = $7.6m extra profit.

That's on top of the extra care PAC+ DMFs that are also certainly coming ( my expectations for FY24 is that those will be about an extra $3.4m ) .
So I'm saying OCA should easily get a care profit jump from FY23 of $20.3m to FY24 of $31.5m
That's 1.5cps. This sounds too good to be true but all the Govt is doing is mostly correcting the funding starvation we have gotten used to over the 5 years. They certainly are not being generous.

There are other positive smaller contributors also to dream about which will also contribute to the care profit over and above this funding increase.
Reduced covid expenses and also the loosening of staffing shortages.

I have always said 2024 is going to be OCAs awakening with Helier and numerous other deliveries gaining critical mass.
This care boost was expected at some point by most of us here following - and in - the industry ( before the care industry eventually dissolved) . I think we can confidently say that it's finally here.
OCA which has the largest care offering will appear to greatly benefit after the 5 years of struggling with the care component. I find it a little odd the Craigs are extolling this profit boost onto ARV when OCA is by far the biggest benefactor. But I do accept they don't like OCA much. In fact at .80c share price I think it's fair to say nobody else out there likes OCA either.

To conclude , I am thrilled that this funding boost has finally arrived in a meaningful way. The effect it will materially have on the bottom line will be significant.
Coupled with Helier now selling down, Chch nearly finished with significant market interest down there , and the timing of so many other components currently in play I can see a very- very positive year or 2 ahead. I cannot see how this overwhelmingly negative market sentiment can continue should OCA post a 40% uNPAT rise as I believe it will in FY24. Then I've got an even higher rise in FY25.

Finally , I want to really acknowledge Craigs excellent idea and work to correlate DHB funding to minimum wage as a measure. This has enabled me to quantify this expected outcome.

Sorry for this late comment ... while not particularly enjoying the weather overseas over the last 4 and a half weeks, I did enjoy to reconnect with family and to focus on other things than the NZ sharemarket.

... and now I am back :t_up: ;

Just came across this recent set of OCA posts (only 10 days ago but already so far removed :):

Great work Maverick. You are certainly right about the impact of the increased care subsidies on OCA's (and other RV's) books.

On the other hand ... future NPAT is obviously impacted by many factors: Sales volumes and prices, development margins, other cost, legal changes due to RV review, (changes in) Taxation as well as the next black swan event.

Not sure I would be brave enough to predict the coming NPAT's ...

[winner69]

Mav said — I have always said 2024 is going to be OCAs awakening

Oceania have always been a bit like the Warriors …this is our year etc

Bugger the Warriors have to wait another year to be champions ……and they are looking so good this year

[Snow Leopard]

Sorry for this late comment ... while not particularly enjoying the weather overseas over the last 4 and a half weeks, I did enjoy to reconnect with family and to focus on other things than the NZ sharemarket.

... and now I am back :t_up: ;

...

All good things come to an end :(

I have reached the I will believe it when I see stage with OCA.

[SailorRob]

https://basehitinvesting.substack.com/p/buffetts-44-cagr-and-various-types?utm_source=substack&utm_medium=email


'This is another misunderstood point in conversations I have with people: everyone is focused on either growth (engine 1) or multiple (engine 2) but forget about capital returns (engine 3) and how low valuations enhance returns (lower multiple means higher value creation per share)'.

As I have said. OCA lower share price for longer (hopefully many more years) is better.

[Curly]

When’s this turkey gunna fly? Get through Christmas turkey dinner and we might see 2024 take off maybe.

[Habits]

https://basehitinvesting.substack.com/p/buffetts-44-cagr-and-various-types?utm_source=substack&utm_medium=email


'This is another misunderstood point in conversations I have with people: everyone is focused on either growth (engine 1) or multiple (engine 2) but forget about capital returns (engine 3) and how low valuations enhance returns (lower multiple means higher value creation per share)'.

As I have said. OCA lower share price for longer (hopefully many more years) is better.

Whats yours. Capital losses and zero divs

[SailorRob]

When’s this turkey gunna fly? Get through Christmas turkey dinner and we might see 2024 take off maybe.


Hopefully not.

[SailorRob]

Whats yours. Capital losses and zero divs


What is my what Sport?

[mike2020]

I have this desperate need to put money somewhere it will do at the very least nothing for an extended period of time. Any suggestions or tips would be welcome.

[SailorRob]

I have this desperate need to put money somewhere it will do at the very least nothing for an extended period of time. Any suggestions or tips would be welcome.


I'd get in touch with Daytra

[Maverick]

...

On the other hand ... future NPAT is obviously impacted by many factors: Sales volumes and prices, development margins, other cost, legal changes due to RV review, (changes in) Taxation as well as the next black swan event.

Not sure I would be brave enough to predict the coming NPAT's ...
Welcome home BP and I really appreciate your feedback of the govt funding increases.

As you say prediction the future is always fraught and we all know it will also be wrong to varying degrees.
But we all are looking for clues on this forum, from each other, trying to shape an opinion to do just that.

I always like to have hard figures, as a long term value investor, I see it as the only way to measure and improve on for the next time.

With regards to prediction OCAs uNPAT, yes there are many unknowns but with effort, all of them now have a 5 year pattern to observe. I dont see it is being brave , I do see now semie consistent inputs that are quite reliable now that , through evolving methodology, push numbers out the other end . The quality of inputs and processing is very good now.

During its listing OCA has experienced relentless issues;
increasing care underfunding, Covid costs, covid lockdowns, boarder closures , staff crises, ultra low borrowing costs , explosive inflation/ wages, cost/ delays of building crises, floods, war, wild swings in housing prices and sentiment....et al.

These can all be isolated and studied using both the extremes of now known high and low event positions. This has now given quite solid clues as to how each even affects OCAs operations. It has been frustrating that's its been one thing after another but on the plus side , it has given good info as to the effects on OCA now having been experience to their extremes of before / after , and highs/lows of these individual events. They are now semi measurable.
For example, Craigs new graph of min wage vs dhb rates that I've been raving on about can now crudely offer a measuring tool to the resultant effect of govt underfunding to care profit. Of course this will need to be tweaked with more info ahead , but its a blunt start for now.

More recently we know though reports Auckland , Waikato and Tauranga house sales have picked up 10% from their troughs. All care operators have NOT had to reduce pricing through the housing downturn. Demand is robust country wide. Staffing is improving. Care funding as relatively improved from its trough. I reckon these can be isolated out and now known quantifiable effects can be applied.

Then we get the updates from ARV and more ongoing clues from others , SUM next Wednesday. I think this does make OCAs earnings ( not share price ) reasonably predictable.

Hence me thinking quite confidently OCA`s EPS will be in the range of 10.5-$11c FY24 ( being weighting to HY2 as that captures more Govt funding increasing and higher sales.)

My expectation of course is only until the next drama that you absolutely rightly say is coming.

PS. I`m heading away like you have BP for a long while, so nothing to read into my future silence here. Au-revoir

[winner69]

Mav ‘prediction’ above - me thinking quite confidently OCA`s EPS will be in the range of $10.5-$11 FY24 ( being weighting to HY2 as that captures more Govt funding increasing and higher sales.)

Assume you mean 10.5/11.0 cents

Jeez that’s more bullish than my ‘prediction’

Be great if you are right …..30% plus increase in Underlying Earnings pretty solid eh

Enjoy your trip …bon voyage

[Habits]

What is my what Sport?
Sailor man said
"everyone is focused on either growth (engine 1) or multiple (engine 2) but forget about capital returns (engine 3)"

The question is, whats your focus, as you talk about what everyone else is doing wrongly so therefore I pointed out that your focus is probably capital losses

Try and focus !

[ValueNZ]

Sailor man said
"everyone is focused on either growth (engine 1) or multiple (engine 2) but forget about capital returns (engine 3)"

The question is, whats your focus, as you talk about what everyone else is doing wrongly so therefore I pointed out that your focus is probably capital losses

Try and focus !
Your inability to form a coherent sentence is no one's fault but your own. SailorRob didn't say it he quoted it from an article.

Besides Oceania hasn't been making losses.

[SailorRob]

Sailor man said
"everyone is focused on either growth (engine 1) or multiple (engine 2) but forget about capital returns (engine 3)"

The question is, whats your focus, as you talk about what everyone else is doing wrongly so therefore I pointed out that your focus is probably capital losses

Try and focus !


Absolutely, lots to be learned from them.

What have your returns been across your entire net worth over the last 5 years Habits?

[Habits]

Absolutely, lots to be learned from them.

What have your returns been across your entire net worth over the last 5 years Habits?

Very high as compared those who loaded ATM 3 years ago, I bought OCA instead. What about SailorRob... slaying obstacles to make $. I still don't understand your logic of cheering a falling shareprice

[bull....]

Very high as compared those who loaded ATM 3 years ago, I bought OCA instead. What about SailorRob... slaying obstacles to make $. I still don't understand your logic of cheering a falling shareprice

i dont get the logic either. rising share price and dividends is the road to riches

[SailorRob]

Very high as compared those who loaded ATM 3 years ago, I bought OCA instead. What about SailorRob... slaying obstacles to make $. I still don't understand your logic of cheering a falling shareprice


Q - Habits, what have your returns been over the last 5 years.

A Oh they have been great in comparison to what I would have got had I put my money into a pile and set fire to it.

How about just the way most other folk calculate them... Not in comparison to ATM...

Of course you don't understand it... As Buffett says, the first thing he hopes for after buying a stock is that it goes down, NOT up...

If you were to buy your groceries for the rest of your life for a fixed price today, would you want that price to be low or high? If you have already bought, then hell stuff yer face...

There are VERY few people where the logic I am teaching you does not make sense.

And even fewer that understand it.

[SailorRob]

i dont get the logic either. rising share price and dividends is the road to riches

Well there's no surprises there eh

[Habits]

... As Buffett says, the first thing he hopes for after buying a stock is that it goes down, NOT up....

Can you provide a link to that quote. It doesn't sound like the buffett I know - number 1 rule "never lose money"

So sailor, if you were to buy a new washing mach for your partner would you A. Look around for the best quality for what your budget can afford or B. Pay too much for one you hope will be cheaper the next day

[mistaTea]

Can you provide a link to that quote. It doesn't sound like the buffett I know - number 1 rule "never lose money"

So sailor, if you were to buy a new washing mach for your partner would you A. Look around for the best quality for what your budget can afford or B. Pay too much for one you hope will be cheaper the next day

Bob is right mate.

He is still in ‘accumulation mode’ for these shares. So, given he favours the long term prospects of the business, the best thing they could happen for him is that he wakes up to find the SP has halved.

Provided the halving of the SP is nothing to worry about in terms of the intrinsic value of the business, it is wonderful news as he can now buy twice as many shares as he could before.

His portfolio will show a paper loss, but who cares? He is getting shares in what he perceives as a wonderful business for cheap.

And then eventually over the long term, if Bob’s thesis proves our then the SP will rise to intrinsic value (or beyond) and he is away laughing.

It’s not hard to see why Bob does not want the SP to go up any time soon (and would prefer they it goes down in the short to medium term).

[SailorRob]

Can you provide a link to that quote. It doesn't sound like the buffett I know - number 1 rule "never lose money"

So sailor, if you were to buy a new washing mach for your partner would you A. Look around for the best quality for what your budget can afford or B. Pay too much for one you hope will be cheaper the next day


Of course I can, but first, money where your mouth is. Bet me I'm wrong if you so confident.

You don't know Buffett at all. Do you really think he's talking about Mr Markets pricing of a stock when he says that??

I have never spoken about paying too much....

If I bought a great machine at a exceptional price, if I then got offered 100 better machines for less then they were worth to a rational buyer I'd take em.

[SailorRob]

Bob is right mate.

He is still in ‘accumulation mode’ for these shares. So, given he favours the long term prospects of the business, the best thing they could happen for him is that he wakes up to find the SP has halved.

Provided the halving of the SP is nothing to worry about in terms of the intrinsic value of the business, it is wonderful news as he can now buy twice as many shares as he could before.

His portfolio will show a paper loss, but who cares? He is getting shares in what he perceives as a wonderful business for cheap.

And then eventually over the long term, if Bob’s thesis proves our then the SP will rise to intrinsic value (or beyond) and he is away laughing.

It’s not hard to see why Bob does not want the SP to go up any time soon (and would prefer they it goes down in the short to medium term).

All true, but also doesn't matter whether he is in accumulation mode or not, as the company will accumulate its own shares for him (buy backs).

Berkshire is a massive part of my net worth, my absolute dream is that it goes down by 50% (would say more but unrealistic)

If it goes down 50% I will end up FAR more wealthy than if it just steadily goes up.

[SailorRob]

Can you provide a link to that quote. It doesn't sound like the buffett I know - number 1 rule "never lose money"


Berkshire Hathaway letter to Shareholders 1997;

How We Think About Market Fluctuations A short quiz: If you plan to eat hamburgers throughout your life and are not a cattle producer, should you wish for higher or lower prices for beef? Likewise, if you are going to buy a car from time to time but are not an auto manufacturer, should you prefer higher or lower car prices? These questions, of course, answer themselves.

But now for the final exam: If you expect to be a net saver during the next five years, should you hope for a higher or lower stock market during that period? Many investors get this one wrong. Even though they are going to be net buyers of stocks for many years to come, they are elated when stock prices rise and depressed when they fall. In effect, they rejoice because prices have risen for the "hamburgers" they will soon be buying. This reaction makes no sense. Only those who will be sellers of equities in the near future should be happy at seeing stocks rise. Prospective purchasers should much prefer sinking prices.

For shareholders of Berkshire who do not expect to sell, the choice is even clearer. To begin with, our owners are automatically saving even if they spend every dime they personally earn: Berkshire "saves" for them by retaining all earnings, thereafter using these savings to purchase businesses and securities. Clearly, the more cheaply we make these buys, the more profitable our owners' indirect savings program will be.

Furthermore, through Berkshire you own major positions in companies that consistently repurchase their shares. The benefits that these programs supply us grow as prices fall: When stock prices are low, the funds that an investee spends on repurchases increase our ownership of that company by a greater amount than is the case when prices are higher. For example, the repurchases that Coca-Cola, The Washington Post and Wells Fargo made in past years at very low prices benefitted Berkshire far more than do today's repurchases, made at loftier prices.

At the end of every year, about 97% of Berkshire's shares are held by the same investors who owned them at the start of the year. That makes them savers. They should therefore rejoice when markets decline and allow both us and our investees to deploy funds more advantageously.

So smile when you read a headline that says "Investors lose as market falls." Edit it in your mind to "Disinvestors lose as market falls -- but investors gain." Though writers often forget this truism, there is a buyer for every seller and what hurts one necessarily helps the other. (As they say in golf matches: "Every putt makes someone happy.")

We gained enormously from the low prices placed on many equities and businesses in the 1970s and 1980s. Markets that then were hostile to investment transients were friendly to those taking up permanent residence. In recent years, the actions we took in those decades have been validated, but we have found few new opportunities. In its role as a corporate "saver," Berkshire continually looks for ways to sensibly deploy capital, but it may be some time before we find opportunities that get us truly excited.



Please make a donation to charity on my behalf Habits, I can't keep doing this for you for free.

[mistaTea]

All true, but also doesn't matter whether he is in accumulation mode or not, as the company will accumulate its own shares for him (buy backs).

Berkshire is a massive part of my net worth, my absolute dream is that it goes down by 50% (would say more but unrealistic)

If it goes down 50% I will end up FAR more wealthy than if it just steadily goes up.

Yea that is a very good point. Buybacks at rock bottom prices make mistaTea rock hard.

And apologies for all the typos before. Using my mobile and I tend to fat finger a lot!

[Habits]

Must be suffering dementia
How does the improving fundamentals of a stock affect price, all other things being the same. That's a rhetorical question of course.
So why would a stock be falling in price other than its performance is declining or the market is in free-fall. If either or both of those two factors are affecting an individual company stock price negatively, who would be dumb enough to say they are getting richer

[Habits]

"Prospective purchasers should much prefer sinking prices."

That statement holds water, yes. They would or should remain as prospective purchasers and not catch a falling knife

In 1997 the Berkshire sp rose 50 percnt. WB didn't put his money where mouth is and do his job to keep the share affordable. The faithful believers would have been inconsolable at the destruction of wealth

[SailorRob]

"Prospective purchasers should much prefer sinking prices."

That statement holds water, yes. They would or should remain as prospective purchasers and not catch a falling knife

In 1997 the Berkshire sp rose 50 percnt. WB didn't put his money where mouth is and do his job to keep the share affordable. The faithful believers would have been inconsolable at the destruction of wealth

Sorry Habits, just realised you're not the actually the 3rd biggest moron on ST. You're just having a laugh.

As with Bobdn the other day with the world boiling, hard to detect facetious posts sometimes.

[SailorRob]

Must be suffering dementia
How does the improving fundamentals of a stock affect price, all other things being the same. That's a rhetorical question of course.
So why would a stock be falling in price other than its performance is declining or the market is in free-fall. If either or both of those two factors are affecting an individual company stock price negatively, who would be dumb enough to say they are getting richer

Me. I would be that dumb. Along with Buffett.

[Baa_Baa]

Yea that is a very good point. Buybacks at rock bottom prices make mistaTea rock hard

Exactly the opposite of what you did, ramping SKT into the bottom for years, buying all the way down holding a huge paper loss, then when the turnaround actually started happening you panic and sold for a capital loss, missed out on the dividends and the buy back!

Credibility, none, what’s that sucking sound we hear? SailorRob probably doesn’t need your patronising, he can check out your history of very poor investment decisions for himself.

[Habits]

Exactly the opposite of what you did, ramping SKT into the bottom for years, buying all the way down holding a huge paper loss, then when the turnaround actually started happening you panic and sold for a capital loss, missed out on the dividends and the buy back!

Credibility, none, what’s that sucking sound we hear? SailorRob probably doesn’t need your patronising, he can check out your history of very poor investment decisions for himself.

Mista Tea bone steak

Done like a dinner :t_up::p

[bull....]

Well there's no surprises there eh

yep if it was that good surely buffett would be on the register

[mistaTea]

Exactly the opposite of what you did, ramping SKT into the bottom for years, buying all the way down holding a huge paper loss, then when the turnaround actually started happening you panic and sold for a capital loss, missed out on the dividends and the buy back!

Credibility, none, what’s that sucking sound we hear? SailorRob probably doesn’t need your patronising, he can check out your history of very poor investment decisions for himself.

I do enjoy your bleating!

I just grabbed some popcorn…please, go on…

[ronaldson]

ASM getting closer - Friday this week at 2.00pm at the Park Hyatt in Auckland but also a hybrid meeting accessible via the internet. Although one purpose this meeting is to receive the Annual Report and Financial Statements for FY 31 March 2023 this is the next opportunity for an update from the Chair and CEO of a listed retirement/aged care operator as to how things have tracked subsequently.

Given the property market has been freeing up over recent months, and also that OCA has/is in the process of divesting quite a number of rest home beds which are difficult to operate profitably/achieve a return on capital invested this should be an interesting reveal. So I see this event as likely to be quite telling and perhaps influential so far as OCA's near-term share price is concerned.

I will definitely make the effort to attend. Sometimes after meeting chats on these occasions can aid insight too. So maybe less pointless slagging off on this thread until we are all a bit wiser?

[Greekwatchdog]

ASM getting closer - Friday this week at 2.00pm at the Park Hyatt in Auckland but also a hybrid meeting accessible via the internet. Although one purpose this meeting is to receive the Annual Report and Financial Statements for FY 31 March 2023 this is the next opportunity for an update from the Chair and CEO of a listed retirement/aged care operator as to how things have tracked subsequently.

Given the property market has been freeing up over recent months, and also that OCA has/is in the process of divesting quite a number of rest home beds which are difficult to operate profitably/achieve a return on capital invested this should be an interesting reveal. So I see this event as likely to be quite telling and perhaps influential so far as OCA's near-term share price is concerned.

I will definitely make the effort to attend. Sometimes after meeting chats on these occasions can aid insight too. So maybe less pointless slagging off on this thread until we are all a bit wiser?


Well said Ronaldson, like you I am very much interested to how things are tracking in general. The Helliers sell down will be very interesting for me.

[winner69]

Earl Gasparich doing an awesome job at Metlifecare. Shame he moved on from Oceania

Positive announcement ….not just the results but hardly an moaning about Govt funding, nurses wages blah blah.

http://nzx-prod-s7fsd7f98s.s3-website-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/attachments/MET/416943/401173.pdf

[Bjauck]

Earl Gasparich doing an awesome job at Metlifecare. Shame he moved on from Oceania

Positive announcement ….not just the results but hardly an moaning about Govt funding, nurses wages blah blah.

http://nzx-prod-s7fsd7f98s.s3-website-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/attachments/MET/416943/401173.pdf This was another shameful loss for NZ investors.
Disc: involuntary ex-shareholder.

[ronaldson]

Earl Gasparich doing an awesome job at Metlifecare. Shame he moved on from Oceania

Positive announcement ….not just the results but hardly an moaning about Govt funding, nurses wages blah blah.

http://nzx-prod-s7fsd7f98s.s3-website-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/attachments/MET/416943/401173.pdf

Better still, it is good to look at the MET Annual Report and Financial Statements (for Y/e 30 June 2023) also released today, as this is another local business which can provide insights for OCA holders.

It's a bit tricky because MET is no longer equity listed, so you need to go to nzx.com/announcements and then to NZX Debt Market Announcements.

Worth at least a quick read/view in my opinion.

[Gerald]

Not much detail on anything really in AGM docs. Just a few chart crimes such as 'doubling of NTA' on slide 9, just not NTA per share. Lots of comparisons to IPO and all the good progress made over time :t_up: Hope we get some interesting questions.

[Alekhine]

OCA might have some hidden value, but their management sucks. You never get a straight answer and everything just consists of vague, buzz words. It is just shameful and embarrassing. I watched Turners AGM earlier in the week and they gave clear, informed answers- not just scripted garbage. OCA management should sharpen up- they just come across as elitest
crooks.

[winner69]

Liz got a real bad cough …hope she not spreading her bugs around. …..hate a shareholder to say ‘ I went to the Oceania meeting and caught ……’

[Poet]

OCA might have some hidden value, but their management sucks. You never get a straight answer and everything just consists of vague, buzz words. It is just shameful and embarrassing. I watched Turners AGM earlier in the week and they gave clear, informed answers- not just scripted garbage. OCA management should sharpen up- they just come across as elitest
crooks.

Well said. We have waited patiently for asm to give us a lead on progress and get what exactly?
A big pile of platitudes and self congratulations.
Give me strength

[BlackPeter]

Not much detail on anything really in AGM docs. Just a few chart crimes such as 'doubling of NTA' on slide 9, just not NTA per share. Lots of comparisons to IPO and all the good progress made over time :t_up: Hope we get some interesting questions.

Quite hard to ask some questions in the online meeting. I submitted four questions during the AGM on their online tool and Liz said afterwards there are no online questions.

They found now out that their system did not work - and she "just" didn't see these questions, I might get an email response to my questions, but still - very disappointing.

[thegreatestben]

I don't understand that lady's position on the Helier? Why be critical of it if you're never going to be a potential customer? She sounds like she's careful with money but has forgotten why.

[Gerald]

Quite hard to ask some questions in the online meeting. I submitted four questions during the AGM on their online tool and Liz said afterwards there are no online questions.

They found now out that their system did not work - and she "just" didn't see these questions, I might get an email response to my questions, but still - very disappointing.

Don't worry we got lots of high quality questions, Lady really obsessed with cost of chauffeurs, old fella stressing about climate change, solar panels, native trees and even sneaked in a recycling question at the end.

[Alekhine]

They also completely ignored my online question about how the sales at the Hellier are going. Very disappointing.

[winner69]

I’ve said it before and nothing seems to have changed …..in Oceania’s eyes you get the impression that shareholders don’t count ….even an unnecessary evil …and only count when we hold out the begging bowl.

[Baa_Baa]

I’ve said it before and nothing seems to have changed …..in Oceania’s eyes you get the impression that shareholders don’t count ….even an unnecessary evil …and only count when we hold out the begging bowl.

Odd thing is how how many shares the insiders have, that they don’t count?

[winner69]

Odd thing is how how many shares the insiders have, that they don’t count?

OK then ….retail / insto shareholders are a necessary evil

You impressed with ASM presos and commentary?

[ronaldson]

They also completely ignored my online question about how the sales at the Hellier are going. Very disappointing.

A pity you weren't at the meeting as the manager in charge of sales was and may have been able to enlighten you discretely. I sense that both at the meeting and in the media there was/is an undercurrent of envy and disapproval regarding the Hellier concept. When you put that alongside the fact that 25% of OCA's existing facilities, being those where basic rest home beds predominate and which lack any future development potential, are "held for sale" on their balance sheet, together with the other two similar but leasehold facilities that they have been grateful to exit on lease expiry this year, you have clear evidence of an ongoing pivot which many would consider has political ramifications.

Brent didn't say that the two existing facilities on-sold presently have settled yet (end August was anticipated, I thought) and there was no detail offered in regard to the remaining eight except to suggest there are parties being talked to in the marketplace. I suggest actually designating/naming these facilities publicly is clearly a step too far for obvious reasons. He did make the point that the combined value on the balance sheet is around $100m (compared to the value of those not "held for sale" which is $2.5b). So this won't raise much in the way of capital but will mitigate overhead in a more significant way. They will be marginally profitable operations at best while adding complexity and administration cost without an adequate return on investment and without potential to "add value". Of course, that begs the question how you divest them to a third party in that circumstance. We will have to wait and see.

I found Brent very impressive, and of course the Chair is highly credentialed too.

[BlackPeter]

Don't worry we got lots of high quality questions, Lady really obsessed with cost of chauffeurs, old fella stressing about climate change, solar panels, native trees and even sneaked in a recycling question at the end.

Thanks, I heard that. Would have preferred to get their view on their inflection point comments some years ago, would have preferred to get some sales update on the Helier as well as their view on whether they see the Helier just as a one - off or as the start of a super-luxury market.

But I guess this was probably just too hard for them to answer anyway, so they preferred to just fob of the questions of the shareholders who came in person instead of fobbing off the other questions as well. Ignoring is easier.

[BlackPeter]

...

I found Brent very impressive, and of course the Chair is highly credentialed too.

Not the impression I got. Sure - Brent conveyed little real information with plenty of words ... and Elizabeth clearly had problems to deal with the complexities of a hybrid meeting. Overplayed it however fabulous by just ignoring the online share holders.

Maybe we need in future a chair able to deal with digital media?

[thegreatestben]

I found them both quite robotic, reading the words in front of them quite poorly at times.

I hope what they lack in personality they make up for in ability.

[Bjauck]

A pity you weren't at the meeting as the manager in charge of sales was and may have been able to enlighten you discretely. I sense that both at the meeting and in the media there was/is an undercurrent of envy and disapproval regarding the Hellier concept. When you put that alongside the fact that 25% of OCA's existing facilities, being those where basic rest home beds predominate and which lack any future development potential, are "held for sale" on their balance sheet, together with the other two similar but leasehold facilities that they have been grateful to exit on lease expiry this year, you have clear evidence of an ongoing pivot which many would consider has political ramifications.

Brent didn't say that the two existing facilities on-sold presently have settled yet (end August was anticipated, I thought) and there was no detail offered in regard to the remaining eight except to suggest there are parties being talked to in the marketplace. I suggest actually designating/naming these facilities publicly is clearly a step too far for obvious reasons. He did make the point that the combined value on the balance sheet is around $100m (compared to the value of those not "held for sale" which is $2.5b). So this won't raise much in the way of capital but will mitigate overhead in a more significant way. They will be marginally profitable operations at best while adding complexity and administration cost without an adequate return on investment and without potential to "add value". Of course, that begs the question how you divest them to a third party in that circumstance. We will have to wait and see.

I found Brent very impressive, and of course the Chair is highly credentialed too. Surely information disclosed to one shareholder needs to be made available to all shareholders.

[bull....]

I’ve said it before and nothing seems to have changed …..in Oceania’s eyes you get the impression that shareholders don’t count ….even an unnecessary evil …and only count when we hold out the begging bowl.

they have been reading sailor rob's posts and have realised the best thing for shareholder's is a low or declining share price for many years to come

[SailorRob]

they have been reading sailor rob's posts and have realised the best thing for shareholder's is a low or declining share price for many years to come

Coupled with improving business fundamentals, this is the recipe to get rich.

If something produces cash and the amount of cash it produces is increasing and the price you pay for that something is decreasing then you cannot fail.

[winner69]

I hope Liz is OK today …she looked and sounded rather sick yesterday

[Habits]

they have been reading sailor rob's posts and have realised the best thing for shareholder's is a low or declining share price for many years to come

The mega rich should buy OCA to stymie the Greens and their wealth tax

[winner69]

ASM was so ho hum and no revelations how things are going this financial year so I’m sticking with my forecast of Underlying NPAT in first half of $30m (pcp $27.8m)

Maverick possibly hoping for a bigger number than $30m …….he mentioned a full year of $80m (~11 cents share) with it weighted to the second half.

Only another 4 weeks to go

[ronaldson]

Surely information disclosed to one shareholder needs to be made available to all shareholders.

You possibly have misinterpreted my comment. I didn't enquire about sales at the Hellier. But if information was provided to anyone it would need to be material in a context where almost 500 sales and resales are made annually across all facilities operated by OCA. I did infer from the CEO's remarks that at least some sales had been achieved (despite the ribbon-cutting ceremony having only been the day prior) as you would expect since marketing has been ongoing for a while, and also that some settlements of apartments/suites may in turn be waiting upon settlement of the incoming residents own on-sale. That wouldn't be at all unusual and indeed might be expected with current property market conditions. Brent did mention the lowest priced apartments were offered at $1.75m if I recall correctly, but he wouldn't be drawn on the wider pricing schedule.

But surely anyone expressing interest in applying would find that out upon enquiry, and would also likely be told how many folk are already moved/moving in? So your/our interest doesn't make it material in my view else everything would need to be secret squirrel stuff. There are also commercial sensitivity issues in what is a highly competitive and contested marketplace within the sector to attract new residents/occupiers.

[winner69]

Hey ronaldson …..I ‘read’ into Brent’s speech/comments they haven’t made sales at The Hellier yet …probably talking to a few interested parties is as far as they have got.

What I’ve learnt from listening / reading what Brent says is sussing what he’s not telling us while fluffing around the reality of things. Just my view ….and I wasn’t at meeting in person.

[jagger]

Quite hard to ask some questions in the online meeting. I submitted four questions during the AGM on their online tool and Liz said afterwards there are no online questions.

They found now out that their system did not work - and she "just" didn't see these questions, I might get an email response to my questions, but still - very disappointing.

100% they would have got yours, and others', questions and consciously ignored them.

"Oh sorry, system broken. We'll fix it for next year."

[jagger]

A pity you weren't at the meeting as the manager in charge of sales was and may have been able to enlighten you discretely.



Yeah, there's a term for that, it's called "selective disclosure" and happens to be highly illegal.

[forest]

Hi Winner, I was at the AGM and understood that about 6 apartments in the Hellier were sold.
I also talked to a contractor who works at the Hellier and he said that some units looked like they are occupied.
But I agree with others that it is disappointing that we are not getting exact numbers on progress of sales.

[winner69]

Hi Winner, I was at the AGM and understood that about 6 apartments in the Hellier were sold.
I also talked to a contractor who works at the Hellier and he said that some units looked like they are occupied.
[B]But I agree with others that it is disappointing that we are not getting exact numbers on progress of sales.[B]

We have to live with the ‘Oceania way’ …no regard to keeping shareholders (non insiders that is) informed …or even communicating with them unless it’s time to fill the begging bowl.

But then Ron said maybe such things are commercially sensitive :p

[SailorRob]

'Glossiest back patting self congratulating thing I have ever seen'


​A mates take on the OCA annual report.

[bull....]

yep based on all the whinging on this thread 74c might get taken out soon :t_up:

[mike2020]

'Glossiest back patting self congratulating thing I have ever seen'


​A mates take on the OCA annual report.
Great buying opportunities incoming then.

[Poet]

'Glossiest back patting self congratulating thing I have ever seen'


​A mates take on the OCA annual report.

Absolutely agree with your mate!

We seasoned investors shouldn't have to tell a group of seasoned directors that a shareholders meeting should be about - well, um...shareholders.

Oh, the irony of them self-congratulating on their mastery of online communications (as the CEO did) while simultaneously failing to take online questions from their shareholders. And having completely effed that up, how about a statement to the exchange this morning, apologizing and answering those questions in writing.

How about the chair stating that the CEO was going to update sales numbers and then the CEO completely failing to do that. Did the chair even read the CEO report before he read it out at the meeting? Remind me please how much we are paying these clowns to keep us in the dark.

And congratulating themselves on having increased net assets by investing a billion dollars of shareholders' funds - but failing to mention that the market now values that investment at around 60%. No worries though, cut the dividend going forward so they can rinse and repeat and turn another $1b of our funds into an extra $600 million of market cap.

They must be well aware of the speculation in the markets about their balance sheet and the potential need to raise capital - why not even the slightest effort to address this and possibly lay the rumours to rest.

To cap it all, they are still dining out on having issued some bonds - wait for it - three years ago! Jeez if they were so prescient, why didn't they fix a lot more of their debt, why just $225 million? The interest rate that they fixed the bonds at was the prevailing rate at the time, nothing clever in getting 3.3% instead of say 8% was there?


Not happy, not happy at all.

[winner69]

Absolutely agree with your mate!

We seasoned investors shouldn't have to tell a group of seasoned directors that a shareholders meeting should be about - well, um...shareholders.

Oh, the irony of them self-congratulating on their mastery of online communications (as the CEO did) while simultaneously failing to take online questions from their shareholders. And having completely effed that up, how about a statement to the exchange this morning, apologizing and answering those questions in writing.

How about the chair stating that the CEO was going to update sales numbers and then the CEO completely failing to do that. Did the chair even read the CEO report before he read it out at the meeting? Remind me please how much we are paying these clowns to keep us in the dark.

And congratulating themselves on having increased net assets by investing a billion dollars of shareholders' funds - but failing to mention that the market now values that investment at around 60%. No worries though, cut the dividend going forward so they can rinse and repeat and turn another $1b of our funds into an extra $600 million of market cap.

They must be well aware of the speculation in the markets about their balance sheet and the potential need to raise capital - why not even the slightest effort to address this and possibly lay the rumours to rest.

To cap it all, they are still dining out on having issued some bonds - wait for it - three years ago! Jeez if they were so prescient, why didn't they fix a lot more of their debt, why just $225 million? The interest rate that they fixed the bonds at was the prevailing rate at the time, nothing clever in getting 3.3% instead of say 8% was there?


Not happy, not happy at all.

Hey Poet …..you forgot about the capital raise to do EPS accretive acquisitions

[Poet]

Hey Poet …..you forgot about the capital raise to do EPS accretive acquisitions

I haven't forgotten, wish I could though.

[ValueNZ]

And congratulating themselves on having increased net assets by investing a billion dollars of shareholders' funds - but failing to mention that the market now values that investment at around 60%. No worries though, cut the dividend going forward so they can rinse and repeat and turn another $1b of our funds into an extra $600 million of market cap.
IMO it is not the job of the board to worry about how the market prices the company. It is their job to create as much shareholder value as possible. I think that thus far they have done a great job despite covid, property fluctuations ect.

I do agree their communications have been poor.

[jagger]

IMO it is not the job of the board to worry about how the market prices the company. It is their job to create as much shareholder value as possible. I think that thus far they have done a great job despite covid, property fluctuations ect.

I do agree their communications have been poor.

Say we're generous and give them credit for creating value despite what market capitalisation shows.

Can the Board & the current management team be credited with any of that value creation?
Or is it perhaps a case that someone else set that value creation in motion and has proven they can also create value elsewhere?

[winner69]

Part of Brent’s incentive scheme is about TSR return relative to NZX50 Group (whatever that means). He seems to have received 33% of that component in F23

And below that they proudly publish this chart ….probably the 33% for effort lol

[Habits]

Part of Brent’s incentive scheme is about TSR return relative to NZX50 Group (whatever that means). He seems to have received 33% of that component in F23

And below that they proudly publish this chart ….probably the 33% for effort lol

The housing market 'will' come roaring back you'll see. It will happen though not overnight /sarcasm

[winner69]

So Brent (and others) incentivised to help the share price along …….and if part of this is to get profits up he ‘s incentivised to do that as well.

Amongst a raft of different targets is a profit one - for 2023 it seemed “Targets were set with reference to a 10% increase in underlying EBITDA,”

Yep a miserable 10% increase target …actual result was +5% …….and if I read the AR report he got 67% of what he could have for this component …..well deserved not unsubstantial paid.

So Brent and others are incentivised to drive profits and help the share price along …….but not doing an outstanding job but seems well rewarded for trying

[ValueNZ]

Part of Brent’s incentive scheme is about TSR return relative to NZX50 Group (whatever that means). He seems to have received 33% of that component in F23

And below that they proudly publish this chart ….probably the 33% for effort lol
That chart is the greatest thing I've seen. Wish the divergence was a bit bigger though.

[ValueNZ]

Say we're generous and give them credit for creating value despite what market capitalisation shows.

Can the Board & the current management team be credited with any of that value creation?
Or is it perhaps a case that someone else set that value creation in motion and has proven they can also create value elsewhere?
Yes I believe so, happy to hear why you think otherwise without mention of market cap.

[Baa_Baa]

Yes I believe so, happy to hear why you think otherwise without mention of market cap.

Ignoring your "without mention of", market cap is everything to many investors because they're only into it to make a capital profit, preferably sooner than later. Others, albeit it seems only few here, look through that, to an asset that they didn't buy to sell anytime soon or maybe ever, that increases in value over time. OCA is doing a good job of that. Increasing in value. Just look at the asset base and NTA valuation.

As far as the market is concerned though, it's priced at a discount, quite a large discount. This is appealing to a value investor, especially considering we have had a decade or more of no consideration for value as most equities became well overpriced. Recalibrating our thinking towards value, versus market price, is key to understanding whether buying now or buying more now, is a good idea. It won't appeal to a capital sensitive or momentum trader, but a value investor will be very interested.

The confusion between value and price seems to be an ongoing thing. Value investors look at the market price as an opportunity, or a turn-off. The whole RV sector has been caught up in a perception that residential property prices are tightly linked to RV's prices, but we can see that in the main they are not.

Nevertheless, all listed RV's, OCA included are priced by the market, whether that is right or wrong is a matter of valuation judgement. It's imo not a competition between the RV's, they are all underpriced, though OCA is more underpriced than any of them.

[ValueNZ]

Ignoring your "without mention of", market cap is everything to many investors because they're only into it to make a capital profit, preferably sooner than later. Others, albeit it seems only few here, look through that, to an asset that they didn't buy to sell anytime soon or maybe ever, that increases in value over time. OCA is doing a good job of that. Increasing in value. Just look at the asset base and NTA valuation.

As far as the market is concerned though, it's priced at a discount, quite a large discount. This is appealing to a value investor, especially considering we have had a decade or more of no consideration for value as most equities became well overpriced. Recalibrating our thinking towards value, versus market price, is key to understanding whether buying now or buying more now, is a good idea. It won't appeal to a capital sensitive or momentum trader, but a value investor will be very interested.

The confusion between value and price seems to be an ongoing thing. Value investors look at the market price as an opportunity, or a turn-off. The whole RV sector has been caught up in a perception that residential property prices are tightly linked to RV's prices, but we can see that in the main they are not.

Nevertheless, all listed RV's, OCA included are priced by the market, whether that is right or wrong is a matter of valuation judgement. It's imo not a competition between the RV's, they are all underpriced, though OCA is more underpriced than any of them.
Great post. Lets as shareholders be thankful for Mr Markets irrational pricing behaviour.

[SailorRob]

Ignoring your "without mention of", market cap is everything to many investors because they're only into it to make a capital profit, preferably sooner than later. Others, albeit it seems only few here, look through that, to an asset that they didn't buy to sell anytime soon or maybe ever, that increases in value over time. OCA is doing a good job of that. Increasing in value. Just look at the asset base and NTA valuation.

And don't forget to look at the liabilities which is in fact their biggest asset.

The more the liabilities grow, the more value is created.

The NTA valuation is a joke, should be adding float to the NTA then you'll see a discount.

Berkshire with 170 billion in insurance liabilities is far more valuable than without these liabilities.

I would honestly say that less than 1 in 1000 OCA investors even understand this.

[Gerald]

Hey Sailor you'll have to explain this float idea. Isn't a liability basically a future outflow of economic resources, and by that metric an occupation rights agreement which needs to be repaid in the future is a liability?

A cheap funding source relative to alternatives does have a positive present value, but only insofar as the differential between that and the alternatives, not the entire amount.

Seems to me to be confusing a advantaged funding source with an asset which is going over my head.

[bull....]

And don't forget to look at the liabilities which is in fact their biggest asset.

The more the liabilities grow, the more value is created.

The NTA valuation is a joke, should be adding float to the NTA then you'll see a discount.

Berkshire with 170 billion in insurance liabilities is far more valuable than without these liabilities.

I would honestly say that less than 1 in 1000 OCA investors even understand this.

hardly anyone on this thread gets what you are saying , can tell that from all the whinging

[ValueNZ]

Hey Sailor you'll have to explain this float idea. Isn't a liability basically a future outflow of economic resources, and by that metric an occupation rights agreement which needs to be repaid in the future is a liability?

A cheap funding source relative to alternatives does have a positive present value, but only insofar as the differential between that and the alternatives, not the entire amount.

Seems to me to be confusing a advantaged funding source with an asset which is going over my head.
On a net basis there has been an inflow of ORA's as Oceania grows and new occupants enter. Even when Oceania stops growing so much, when a occupant leaves and is paid out a new one enters on average so there isn't going to be any net outflow of cash. So essentially you are left with this liability which is never going to be paid off (on a net basis) and costs nothing to service, so you may as well call it an asset as you can earn a return on it.

It is possible for the float to fall if more occupants leave than enter but that seems highly unlikely especially with Oceania being in a growth phase, which would be an outflow of economic resources as you say.

[Entrep]

Sailor Rob write out concisely out what you are on about.

[ValueNZ]

Sailor Rob write out concisely out what you are on about.
Deleted...

[thegreatestben]

SR definitely has described this in detail already - this article describes it well, switch out Insurers for Aged Care Provider and Premiums for ORA's.
https://www.npr.org/sections/money/2010/03/warren_buffett_explains_the_ge.html

[Snow Leopard]

Spot the sucker - It might be you (https://jesse-livermore.com/spot-the-sucker-it-might-be-you/#:~:text=In%20his%201987%20letter%20to,you're%20th e%20patsy.%E2%80%9D)

[SailorRob]

Sailor Rob write out concisely out what you are on about.

For the 10th time?

OK I will when get a minute

[SailorRob]

hardly anyone on this thread gets what you are saying , can tell that from all the whinging

Should have got that School C bro

[BlackPeter]

Great post. Lets as shareholders be thankful for Mr Markets irrational pricing behaviour.

Well, yes. Only thing is - we only know afterwards whether the markets behaviour was irrational, or whether the market knew something we didn't.

I am still as well in the boat believing that they are undervalued, but I would prefer to know (vs believe) ... and the problem is that OCA's reporting is consistently best described with a four letter word which the censorship software turns into stars.

Which means - as a minimum do investors have to consider for OCA a higher risk factor than for other comparable companies who are more open and streight forward with their reporting. This (terrible reporting and board arrogance) might well be one of the reasons for the OCA share price being hold back.

Question for holders (like me) is now - do we expect this handbrake for the share price to be stuck forever ... or is there anythig we can do to undo it? Not sure whether the strategy to always just hope for the next reporting season being more transparent proved successful - well, so far it didn't.

[SailorRob]

Well, yes. Only thing is - we only know afterwards whether the markets behaviour was irrational, or whether the market knew something we didn't.

This is the entire point of active investing. You can't wait till afterwards.

You need to know before.

Judging by the fact only one in a thousand understand a simple balance sheet structure, we should be good.

[ValueNZ]

Which means - as a minimum do investors have to consider for OCA a higher risk factor than for other comparable companies who are more open and streight forward with their reporting. This (terrible reporting and board arrogance) might well be one of the reasons for the OCA share price being hold back.
I wouldn't call Oceania more risky than any of its peers, even if their most recent AGM didn't have the most transparent communication. I think the price you pay for what you receive makes Oceania shares less risky than the likes of Summerset or Ryman.

[ronaldson]

Any bets that later today, or tomorrow, we will get an NZX announcement from OCA re settling the sale of two facilities? Wait and see.

[kiora]

Spot the sucker - It might be you (https://jesse-livermore.com/spot-the-sucker-it-might-be-you/#:~:text=In%20his%201987%20letter%20to,you're%20th e%20patsy.%E2%80%9D)

"The Stock Market Sucker Test – 5 Questions" worth doing :)

[winner69]

Any bets that later today, or tomorrow, we will get an NZX announcement from OCA re settling the sale of two facilities? Wait and see.

Is that what your man at the ASM hinted at …..and surely add that they’ve settled on 6 apartments at The Helier ….and make it a bonza of an announcement ……


……or maybe it’s about the cap raise …but they’ll wait until full year result day to tell us that

[ronaldson]

A couple of days ago I emailed Brent and the bounce back said he was on leave until 4 September, so that might possibly delay any announcement.

[X-men]

Yes..just have a weekly chat with the broker....he also said that Brent is on leave

[winner69]

I’ve had a feeling for years that OCA share price is a bit like how good the NZ Warriors are ….like “this is our year” if you get what I mean

Come October 1st when Warriors are the NRL champs that “this is our year” will be laid to rest …..and shortly after Oceania will have a great result and the share price will start surging …never to fall back again…and F24 will be ‘this is our year’

The signs are all there. …go the Wahs ….go the OCAers

[X-men]

Or just like your favourite motto...not this year ..maybe next year...n on

[winner69]

Or just like your favourite motto...not this year ..maybe next year...n on

It’ll be a bugger if the Warriors don’t go all the way and be the champs this year ...and a bad omen for where OCA share price will go next year

As you say maybe 2025 will then be ‘this is our year’ for OCA

[justakiwi]

Yawn. I don't believe for one minute you even hold OCA. You just thrive on winding people up.


It’ll be a bugger if the Warriors don’t go all the way and be the champs this year ...and a bad omen for where OCA share price will go next year

As you say maybe 2025 will then be ‘this is our year’ for OCA

[winner69]

Yawn. I don't believe for one minute you even hold OCA. You just thrive on winding people up.

I still hold a few OCA (mistakenly didn’t sell the whole lot in the 130s) …….I feel the pain as well seeing the share price struggling where it is….but live in hope it’ll all come right one day

Confess not my preferred RV stock though

[winner69]

Hey bull. ….shareprice bounced off 74 again today …..so 74 is pretty strong support level

[bull....]

74 - 79 range trading until a decisive break either way ... sailor probably filling the wardrobe for his payday in 20yrs

[ronaldson]

No announcement yet re the two facilities said to be on-sold and due to settle by 31 August. Must be a hitch somewhere. May be the approvals required from Health entity sources?

Are any of the ten facilities "held for sale" on the books actually marketable? How do you realise value for rest home type facilities in the current environment?

[mike2020]

I know one for sale elsewhere will likely become apartments. Not OCA. Like anything it's always price dependent.

[winner69]

Shame Anna is going …been there many years ..over 10 years

Whenever I asked her for something I generally got a “can’t tell you that winner” …a nice straight answer and none of the waffle you get from her work mates

I see her profile says she leads the village settlements team ….hmmm…hope she not given heave ho.

Wonder where Anna off to?

[X-men]

Anna gone...but Lana is still around... prefer Lana than Anna...lol

[winner69]

Probably a case of management thinking let’s hang in here until 2026 and hope like anything things come right …..and then we can say yes we did align with the interests of shareholders lol

What’s another 16 million plus options anyway

Sorry about being cynical but ………

[justakiwi]

.... deleted ....

[bull....]

Probably a case of management thinking let’s hang in here until 2026 and hope like anything things come right …..and then we can say yes we did align with the interests of shareholders lol

What’s another 16 million plus options anyway

Sorry about being cynical but ………

should have made it a million options ... they really need to hang on to those staff.

[forest]

Probably a case of management thinking let’s hang in here until 2026 and hope like anything things come right …..and then we can say yes we did align with the interests of shareholders lol

What’s another 16 million plus options anyway

Sorry about being cynical but ………

Hi Winner, I saw the OCA announcement, which included the following sentence.

"Terms or details of the issue (for example: restrictions, escrow arrangements) Options are subject to the Oceania Healthcare Share Option Plan Rules".

However the announcement is light on detail what the criteria is before the options are able to be vested.

We need detail to work out if the hurdles before vesting are indeed a motivation for above average future company results.

[winner69]

Hi Winner, I saw the OCA announcement, which included the following sentence.

"Terms or details of the issue (for example: restrictions, escrow arrangements) Options are subject to the Oceania Healthcare Share Option Plan Rules".

However the announcement is light on detail what the criteria is before the options are able to be vested.

We need detail to work out if the hurdles before vesting are indeed a motivation for above average future company results.

This lot seem to be in addition to previously notified Incentive Schemes (STI and LTI) which do have specific hurdles attached to them. …but hurdles don’t seem that onerous as Brent got a sizeable amount this year for OCA share price performance and for ebitda performance even though the 10% hurdle was not achieved.

[forest]

This lot seem to be in addition to previously notified Incentive Schemes (STI and LTI) which do have specific hurdles attached to them. …but hurdles don’t seem that onerous as Brent got a sizeable amount this year for OCA share price performance and for ebitda performance even though the 10% hurdle was not achieved.

Are the hurdles public?

[winner69]

Are the hurdles public?

I kept asking Anna but she kept saying ‘can’t tell you that winner’

But after the fact there’s a bit of in Annual Report ..Page 76 http://nzx-prod-s7fsd7f98s.s3-website-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/attachments/OCA/411936/395032.pdf

[ronaldson]

The website doesn't seem to disclose a document that could be described as the Oceania Healthcare Share Option Plan Rules. The NZX announcement which references the options and has that heading actually doesn't include that detail either. Some information is available from the Capital Change Notice announcement, but I wouldn't have thought that detail met disclosure as "Rules". As an organisation which prides itself on Governance it could do better and I may raise directly with Brent.

On another note, we still await an update about the two facilities divestments that were to settle by end August. I suggest that hasn't happened, but it isn't clear why not. I can understand any premature commentary which would identify the rest homes involved would be anathema to all concerned but it would be good to be told promptly under continuous disclosure regulations when it is definitive.

[winner69]

So Brent (and others) incentivised to help the share price along …….and if part of this is to get profits up he ‘s incentivised to do that as well.

Amongst a raft of different targets is a profit one - for 2023 it seemed “Targets were set with reference to a 10% increase in underlying EBITDA,”

Yep a miserable 10% increase target …actual result was +5% …….and if I read the AR report he got 67% of what he could have for this component …..well deserved not unsubstantial paid.

So Brent and others are incentivised to drive profits and help the share price along …….but not doing an outstanding job but seems well rewarded for trying

For Forest to save looking at AR

[winner69]

Part of Brent’s incentive scheme is about TSR return relative to NZX50 Group (whatever that means). He seems to have received 33% of that component in F23

And below that they proudly publish this chart ….probably the 33% for effort lol

Another bit for Forest

[Bjauck]

Hi Winner, I saw the OCA announcement, which included the following sentence.

"Terms or details of the issue (for example: restrictions, escrow arrangements) Options are subject to the Oceania Healthcare Share Option Plan Rules".

However the announcement is light on detail what the criteria is before the options are able to be vested.

We need detail to work out if the hurdles before vesting are indeed a motivation for above average future company results. According to the 2023 Report, 75% of new permanent employees participated in the share purchase scheme. This new share option plan is for “key” employees. So presumably not for the regular joe employee but a way to reward “key” personnel handsomely when the “criteria” are met - and maybe a way to stop them fleeing overseas for better “transparent” standard salaries.

[Bjauck]

Another bit for Forest HaHa - “TSR relative to the NZX50 group.” I guess the option holders are happy when the successful or improving NZX50 companies relocate to Australia or are taken over by overseas concerns. MetLifeCare was taken over by the Swedes just as it was showing signs of getting on top of problems.

[forest]

For Forest to save looking at AR

Thanks Winner, so underlying EBITDA increases less than inflation and Brent get most of his incentive payment.
Maybe it is time for a change of Chair of the board, I noticed that Auckland Port results improved markedly after Elizabeth Coutts departed.

[winner69]

“ You have to have vision, someone up that mast looking out to the future. That’s what’s important.” ……Liz Coutts

[forest]

“ You have to have vision, someone up that mast looking out to the future. That’s what’s important.” ……Liz Coutts

So true, and for Auckland Port that is a vision without Liz Coutts, just wondering if OCA results will also improve markedly after we say goodbye to her.

[bull....]

is 74c going to get smashed today

[Antipodean]

Smashed on the way up?

[winner69]

So true, and for Auckland Port that is a vision without Liz Coutts, just wondering if OCA results will also improve markedly after we say goodbye to her.

Liz been there since listing so maybe time to say goodbye ….she said goodbye to Skellerup last year and the luck seems to have turned down at her other baby in Ebos. Time for a break?

That Alan Isaac seems to pop up a lot where Liz hangs out ….maybe time for him to say goodbye as well…and Dame Kerry well what more be said.

Might get Ronaldson on the case to get NZSA to start stirring for changes on the Board …a few too many hangers on I reckon

[bull....]

yep be calling for her scalp if the price reaches 20c

[thegreatestben]

I'd have to assume she has some skills and talent to get to her position but I couldn't observe much of either listening to her at the shareholders event.

[winner69]

End of day is what matters and phew 74 held ….even though dipped down to 73 a couple of times

Bit like the Warriors …still another chance ……this could be OCA’s year

[ValueNZ]

End of day is what matters and phew 74 held ….even though dipped down to 73 a couple of times

Bit like the Warriors …still another chance ……this could be OCA’s year
Does it not get tiring worrying about intraday fluctuations?

I swear most investors would be better off if they didn't have the ability to get a daily market quoted price. Once every three months or even longer would suffice.

[ValueNZ]

yep be calling for her scalp if the price reaches 20c
20c with no deterioration of fundamentals? Bring it on.

[winner69]

Does it not get tiring worrying about intraday fluctuations?

I swear most investors would be better off if they didn't have the ability to get a daily market quoted price. Once every three months or even longer would suffice.

Nicholas Taleb told a story in Fooled by Randomness about a dentist which went a bit like this -


“A 15% return with a 10% volatility (or uncertainty) per annum translates into a 93% probability of success in any given year. But seen at a narrow time scale, this translates into a mere 50.02% probability of success over any given second as shown in Table 3.1. Over the very narrow time increment, the observation will reveal close to nothing. Yet the dentist’s heart will not tell him that… At the end of every day the dentist will be emotionally drained. A minute-by-minute examination of his performance means that each day (assuming eight hours per day) he will have 241 pleasurable minutes against 239 unpleasurable ones. These amount to 60,688 and 60,271, respectively, per year. Now realize that if the unpleasurable minute is worse in reverse pleasure than the pleasurable minute is in pleasure terms, then the dentist incurs a large deficit when examining his performance at a high frequency. Consider the situation where the dentist examines his portfolio only upon receiving the monthly account from the brokerage house. As 67% of his months will be positive, he incurs only four pangs of pain per annum and eight uplifting experiences. This is the same dentist following the same strategy. Now consider the dentist looking at his performance only every year. Over the next 20 years that he is expected to live, he will experience 19 pleasant surprises for every unpleasant one!”

[Baa_Baa]

Does it not get tiring worrying about intraday fluctuations?

I swear most investors would be better off if they didn't have the ability to get a daily market quoted price. Once every three months or even longer would suffice.


20c with no deterioration of fundamentals? Bring it on.

If you are truely only 17 years old, then you must be a reincarnate of some long dead and perhaps forgotten investment guru. Such wise words are uncommon from someone so young.

I think you are correct, that our discussion is confused by people who are only interested in the capital price (SP), with those who are only interested in the long term investment. Maybe with some in between, like the momentum traders. Fixation on the daily SP is only helpful for a longer term investor in terms of whether they can buy some, or more, at a ridiculous discount to its long term asset value and discounted cashflows.

There is no doubt in my mind that the RV sector is a long term investment, we can quibble about which company is better at any given point in time, but in the scheme of things all of them will be good long term investments. I don't concern myself with flitting in and out of long term investments just because the market prices them more or less, except to load up a few more when the market has a hissy fit and gifts me assets well below their long term value. We've seen a bit of that recently and lately, it's a time that doesn't happen very often even on a decades long timescale. To miss that opportunity would be the regret of any long term value investor.

Conflating unrealised capital fluctuations, with real cash payouts from profit, and unrealised future cash payouts, and potential future capital gains, is a fools game imo. It confounds common sense and distracts one from the strategy they have to make money from making the investment in the first place.

Good luck to you ValueNZ, you're a breath of fresh air for investors, and if truely as young as you say, then also an object lesson for all of your age, perhaps any age, as to the difference between investing for long term income and gains, versus trading for short term capital gains.

[ValueNZ]

If you are truely only 17 years old, then you must be a reincarnate of some long dead and perhaps forgotten investment guru. Such wise words are uncommon from someone so young.

I think you are correct, that our discussion is confused by people who are only interested in the capital price (SP), with those who are only interested in the long term investment. Maybe with some in between, like the momentum traders. Fixation on the daily SP is only helpful for a longer term investor in terms of whether they can buy some, or more, at a ridiculous discount to its long term asset value and discounted cashflows.

There is no doubt in my mind that the RV sector is a long term investment, we can quibble about which company is better at any given point in time, but in the scheme of things all of them will be good long term investments. I don't concern myself with flitting in and out of long term investments just because the market prices them more or less, except to load up a few more when the market has a hissy fit and gifts me assets well below their long term value. We've seen a bit of that recently and lately, it's a time that doesn't happen very often even on a decades long timescale. To miss that opportunity would be the regret of any long term value investor.

Conflating unrealised capital fluctuations, with real cash payouts from profit, and unrealised future cash payouts, and potential future capital gains, is a fools game imo. It confounds common sense and distracts one from the strategy they have to make money from making the investment in the first place.

Good luck to you ValueNZ, you're a breath of fresh air for investors, and if truely as young as you say, then also an object lesson for all of your age, perhaps any age, as to the difference between investing for long term income and gains, versus trading for short term capital gains.
Actually I turned 18 last week, but thank you Baa_Baa your post has made my night. I do find your posts to be of very high quality as well, even if we disagree on some things like the usefulness of TA.

[bull....]

I swear most investors would be better off if they didn't have the ability to get a daily market quoted price. Once every three months or even longer would suffice.

So when is a value stock not a value stock

[winner69]

Radius going OK and giving guidance “ Radius Expects 40% to 50% Uplift in First Half Year EBITDA”

Good to see them and keeping market informed …..even though half year not over yet and results won’t be announced until late November

Doubt whether Oceania will follow suit and come out with an update …….seeing they don’t really care about shareholders and keep them/market in the dark

But you never know they might surprise ..in actually giving an update as well as having a 40% uplift in profit

[Poet]

Radius going OK and giving guidance “ Radius Expects 40% to 50% Uplift in First Half Year EBITDA”

Good to see them and keeping market informed …..even though half year not over yet and results won’t be announced until late November

Doubt whether Oceania will follow suit and come out with an update …….seeing they don’t really care about shareholders and keep them/market in the dark

But you never know they might surprise ..in actually giving an update as well as having a 40% uplift in profit

Call me a cynic, but it strikes me that we might start to see some more positive news out of OCA now that all of the snouts are lined up at the trough by way of the recent management option issue.

[Louloubell]

Hope is that what you really don't expect. I'm not hoping for a crumpet with peanut butter today as I will have one or two.

[ronaldson]

I note the Radius announcement specifically references that it continues to make progress with divestments to pay down debt.

Like OCA no divestment transaction is actually announced, which suggests getting the least profitable facilities out of portfolio stock isn't the easiest thing to do, and in my opinion calls into question any carrying value attributed to these facilities. In Australia reporting suggests banks will not advance funds to underpin the purchase of these facilities by third parties, so new entrants find acquisition too difficult. Likely that is the case here too. So transactions at anything like the underlying asset value inherent in land and buildings simply do not occur. Recent increases in daily bed funding may have tipped the balance a little but it is a year now since OCA recorded 10 facilities as "held for sale" and they were possibly informally marketed even earlier than that, but nothing so far tells a tale!

[winner69]

REINZ reports sales volume in August were 9% higher than august last year

Volumes still at relatively low levels but recently are trending up quite nicely.

Good signs for Oceania sales …more sales than last year = Underlying Earnings Growth ……cool

[jagger]

Liz been there since listing so maybe time to say goodbye ….she said goodbye to Skellerup last year and the luck seems to have turned down at her other baby in Ebos. Time for a break?

That Alan Isaac seems to pop up a lot where Liz hangs out ….maybe time for him to say goodbye as well…and Dame Kerry well what more be said.

Might get Ronaldson on the case to get NZSA to start stirring for changes on the Board …a few too many hangers on I reckon

I am so glad someone is finally saying this.
Too bad it's come a month too late - she just got re-elected for another 3 years at the AGM. That will take it to 12 years on the Board.

I couldn't believe it when I contacted my fund manager (a large NZ based house) and asked if they vote proxies they said they don't.
They didn't even pay for a proxy advisors report for the OCA AGM.
Our capital markets are so thin, the least they can do is hold the 5 people who are on half the Boards to account.

[winner69]

Jeez, Radius give a good profit guidance and share price up 15% already

Just imagine ….Oceania comes out and say expecting a good half year profit (say in line with Mav’s expectations) the share price would be over $1 in no time.

If only

[Sideshow Bob]

Jeez, Radius give a good profit guidance and share price up 15% already

Just imagine ….Oceania comes out and say expecting a good half year profit (say in line with Mav’s expectations) the share price would be over $1 in no time.

If only

I think someone said something like "we won't see $1.00 again".

Although that might have been when OCA was trading at $1.20......;)

[ronaldson]

Over 500k traded at market close today at 77c has removed some of the seller overhang that has kept things subdued/depressed recently.

It's the extended "Adjust" session today, but that transaction seems like more a positive indicator than a negative.

[BlackPeter]

Over 500k traded at market close today at 77c has removed some of the seller overhang that has kept things subdued/depressed recently.

It's the extended "Adjust" session today, but that transaction seems like more a positive indicator than a negative.

Actually - SP moving since July in a rather narrow Bollinger Channel.

14748

The theory is that a likely breakout might be violent (compensating for the reduced volatility at the moment) ... and the odds for it to go upwards are better than the other way around.

[winner69]

Over 500k traded at market close today at 77c has removed some of the seller overhang that has kept things subdued/depressed recently.

It's the extended "Adjust" session today, but that transaction seems like more a positive indicator than a negative.

Didn’t one of these Adjust sessions not that long ago push the price up to 84 cents on more than 6 million shares ….and a few days later it was back in the 70’s

[bottomfeeder]

Very little demand until close to next dividend and interim results announcement.

Must be getting close to the time when accumulaters will be making a move to build up their portfolio, before any solid annoucement is made.

[winner69]

Must be getting close to the time when accumulaters will be making a move to build up their portfolio, before any solid annoucement is made.

Reckon the accumulators will need to act fast …..Oceania might do a Radius and print a guidance next week saying profits up 40% and they sold a few of those unwanted sites

Share price will take off then

[ronaldson]

Reckon the accumulators will need to act fast …..Oceania might do a Radius and print a guidance next week saying profits up 40% and they sold a few of those unwanted sites

Share price will take off then

Agree. What has been good for RAD will have been for OCA as well.

But RAD didn't manage any divestments. Neither has OCA announced any (apart from its exit from the two leasehold sites) although earlier commentary has suggested it was further down this road so winner may have a point.

I share the view that the odds of a share price rerate upwards currently significantly exceed the odds of a downgrade. But the market can always surprise.

[winner69]

Up the Wahs ….great win last night …. one step closer to the final ……this year will be our year

And Oceania will follow suit ….destiny ….it’s all in the stars …..next announcement will be the trigger ….2024 going to be our year ….up the Ocas

[mike2020]

Reckon the accumulators will need to act fast …..Oceania might do a Radius and print a guidance next week saying profits up 40% and they sold a few of those unwanted sites

Share price will take off then

I think I said the same thing, exactly 12 months ago. But it is different this time, out with team red and in with a new...act.

[artemis]

OCA could quickly replicate The Helier and market to overseas buyers for whom 15% tax is chump change. Maybe even cater for specific groups.

[777]

OCA could quickly replicate The Helier and market to overseas buyers for whom 15% tax is chump change. Maybe even cater for specific groups.

I would not think the tax applies to a contract to occupy which is all retirement villagers have.

[Bjauck]

I would not think the tax applies to a contract to occupy which is all retirement villagers have. Also under s.35 of the RVA there must be no legal impediment to the resident’s occupation of a village. Therefore I presume that the resident must have the legal right to be a NZ Resident.

[850man]

I expressed my frustration to OCA for the difficulty to ask online questions at the AGM. They responded to me this morning acknowledging they had technical issues at the time and have since responded to questions here https://oceaniahealthcare.co.nz/investor-centre/news/annual-shareholders-meeting-2023 (https://oceaniahealthcare.co.nz/investor-centre/news/annual-shareholders-meeting-2023) (click on "see more")

[thegreatestben]

Damn, they couldn't even be bothered renaming the file from the template name.

[ronaldson]

I expressed my frustration to OCA for the difficulty to ask online questions at the AGM. They responded to me this morning acknowledging they had technical issues at the time and have since responded to questions here https://oceaniahealthcare.co.nz/investor-centre/news/annual-shareholders-meeting-2023 (https://oceaniahealthcare.co.nz/investor-centre/news/annual-shareholders-meeting-2023) (click on "see more")

Thank you 850man. I read the responses. Notwithstanding the commentary around the intended on-sale of the 10 rest homes "held for sale" there is still no announcement of any actual disposal. RAD are also unable to announce any sale, despite trying to offload an unspecified number of existing facilities. So there are some serious questions around marketability.

I liked the answer given around the Retirement Commissioner's review. The outcome will have virtually no effect upon listed operators but may intensify pressures on the smaller unlisted and charity providers who lack the ability to absorb more costs. Clearly for those parties the recent increase in Government funding support came just in time to prevent a potential wave of closures but is insufficient to motivate new entrants and/or possible purchasers of the facilities sought to be offloaded by existing operators such as OCA.

[BlackPeter]

I expressed my frustration to OCA for the difficulty to ask online questions at the AGM. They responded to me this morning acknowledging they had technical issues at the time and have since responded to questions here https://oceaniahealthcare.co.nz/investor-centre/news/annual-shareholders-meeting-2023 (https://oceaniahealthcare.co.nz/investor-centre/news/annual-shareholders-meeting-2023) (click on "see more")

Thank you for following this up with OCA and letting us know. I even managed to find my questions (ref to Helier and government review) and - for an AGM - some reasonably meaningful answers :) ;

Good that OCA went into the effort to answer the remaining share holder questions, disappointing though that it took that long, that they didn't come back directly to the people asking the questions and that they published the answers that quietly.

Clearly - their communication sucks!

Anyway - worthwhile reading ...

[artemis]

I would not think the tax applies to a contract to occupy which is all retirement villagers have.

Different model? Like strata titles with contract/s for services.

[winner69]

Question 19 ……..so the famous ‘inflection point’ didn’t really mean increased profits leading to increased share price …….but we remain ‘focused on the execution of a five year strategy’ so no worries

[Ggcc]

Question 19 ……..so the famous ‘inflection point’ didn’t really mean increased profits leading to increased profits …..but we remain ‘focused on the execution of a five year strategy’ so no worries
I did find that interesting as well. Inflection point to me does indicate increased profits on the way. Maybe they should have used a different word that would not indicate any increased profits and would indicate they were only moving the goal posts and dependant on government and some other minor details..... Maybe Fruitless instead of Point of inflection.

[Valuegrowth]

Businesses are working in a high inflationary and interest rates situation. Naturally, cost of doing business will go up. Companies with mountain of debt will hit hard until we see lower rates and end of high asset inflationary situation.

[winner69]

Hey Ronaldson …did you see Radius have managed to sell one of their sites for $19m

Oceania possibly tell us something similar in next week or two? Or is Brent just playing games until late November half year update?

[winner69]

Good effort by the Warriors but Broncos just too good. Another season passes and it’s not ‘this is our year’

But the passionate Warrior fans / believers are keeping the faith and already clamouring that 2024 is going to be the ‘this is our year’ time.

All this not a good sign for the Oceania share price over the next year. If destiny has anything to do with it F24 is not going to be an Oceania ‘ this is our year’ …. But the faithful followers will be saying we are still a great company on the cusp of greatness ….so F25 will gunna be ‘this is our year’ time.

[jagger]

Question 19 ……..so the famous ‘inflection point’ didn’t really mean increased profits leading to increased share price …….but we remain ‘focused on the execution of a five year strategy’ so no worries

https://www.nzx.com/announcements/366547

“We noted in our last annual report for the year ended 31 May 2020 that our *aged care earnings* were at a point of inflection following three years of redevelopment and increasing the proportion of premium rooms in the portfolio, so it is pleasing to record a 15.3% increase in underlying EBITDA from our Care segment and corresponding increase in earnings per bed over the interim period” said Mr Gasparich

[ronaldson]

Hey Ronaldson …did you see Radius have managed to sell one of their sites for $19m

Oceania possibly tell us something similar in next week or two? Or is Brent just playing games until late November half year update?

I did see Winner.

According to me it is the only potential divestment of a freehold facility currently announced by any listed RV entity, and it is only conditional and not expected to settle until January 2024. In fact it is a divestment of a facility operated under lease since 2008 until it was one of eight freeholded by RAD in the last 2+ years.

RAD has clearly overreached in its endeavors to build a viable business, trading in FY23 at a net loss after tax of $2.1m largely due to higher interest costs from higher debt levels and higher interest rates. ASB's bridge facilities are due on 6 October and the $11.5m of vendor loans to allow the acquisition of Matamata Country Lodge are due on 23 October. The latest RAD Annual report makes clear that should the Group not be able to successfully implement the debt management programme or obtain further lending extensions this would give rise to a material uncertainty in relation to the Group's ability to continue as a going concern.

I don't think there is any doubt the future this business is now at the mercy of others. Probably tender mercies given its nature and what is at stake but at their discretion nevertheless. The share price tells you that too so shareholders should be holding their collective breath!

[Valuegrowth]

deleted. Posted twice.

[Valuegrowth]

Hope they will take proper action to sort out.
I did see Winner.

According to me it is the only potential divestment of a freehold facility currently announced by any listed RV entity, and it is only conditional and not expected to settle until January 2024. In fact it is a divestment of a facility operated under lease since 2008 until it was one of eight freeholded by RAD in the last 2+ years.

RAD has clearly overreached in its endeavors to build a viable business, trading in FY23 at a net loss after tax of $2.1m largely due to higher interest costs from higher debt levels and higher interest rates. ASB's bridge facilities are due on 6 October and the $11.5m of vendor loans to allow the acquisition of Matamata Country Lodge are due on 23 October. The latest RAD Annual report makes clear that should the Group not be able to successfully implement the debt management programme or obtain further lending extensions this would give rise to a material uncertainty in relation to the Group's ability to continue as a going concern.

I don't think there is any doubt the future this business is now at the mercy of others. Probably tender mercies given its nature and what is at stake but at their discretion nevertheless. The share price tells you that too so shareholders should be holding their collective breath!

[ronaldson]

As to #16952 above - I should also have said that the carry value of that particular facility cannot be divined from the published accounts, so it isn't clear whether the $19m yield on sale after costs is above or below that value ie at a loss or at a profit.

The answer may have some significance for the carry value of other rest homes, not only on RAD's balance sheet but other listed entities such as OCA also, given the relative scarcity/absence of market evidence available to valuers active in this area. A redeeming feature may be that it has occurred after the increase in Government subsidy rates applied from 1 July, so may reflect a potentially better level of profitability than in the recent past.

And we don't know who the potential incoming operator is.

We don't know if Brent is "playing games" as Winner puts it, but certainly the RAD announcement was an imperitive given the lender deadlines I mentioned.

[winner69]

Hey Balance …I noticed the share price has bounced off 74 cents a few times last couple of days

You are a guru with your TA range trading analysis

Any idea how long this range will last?

[Baa_Baa]

Hey Balance …I noticed the share price has bounced off 74 cents a few times last couple of days

You are a guru with your TA range trading analysis

Any idea how long this range will last?

I'd be interested in what Balance has to say, in the meantime, 0.74-0.75 has established as a medium term support and the longer term resistance trend line from August 2022 is currently being tested. There is no evidence as to how long this will last. Breaking up through the down trend would be positive, whereas a breakdown through support would be a concern for the SP with no support until 0.67ish https://invst.ly/11ifvp

[winner69]

Hey Balance …I noticed the share price has bounced off 74 cents a few times last couple of days

You are a guru with your TA range trading analysis

Any idea how long this range will last?

Sorry balance ….meant to say hey Bull

[Baa_Baa]

I'd be interested in what Balance has to say, in the meantime, 0.74-0.75 has established as a medium term support and the longer term resistance trend line from August 2022 is currently being tested. There is no evidence as to how long this will last. Breaking up through the down trend would be positive, whereas a breakdown through support would be a concern for the SP with no support until 0.67ish https://invst.ly/11ifvp

The TA on this chart pattern is that it is more likely, the probability is higher, to breakdown than breakout, even though support has held up so far, resistance has driven the SP into the fine end of the triangle pattern.

My suspicion to bring some FA into it, is that we're seeing the REIT's property valuations still falling, hence NTA, and RV's are still vulnerable to the same effect. If OCA release a property devaluation and decrease in NTA between now and the next report, we should expect a higher probability of a breakdown in the SP, than a breakout upwards. The slight bottoming or perhaps uptick in residential property prices, imo are too early to factor into an OCA NTA valuation.

We're looking at the SP here, it's what the market thinks, expressed as a price point for the shares. It is not necessarily representative of the true value of the company. The market price and the company value are very rarely aligned. I would consider the SP around here, or lower, as an accumulation opportunity for the longer term.

[Entrep]

Each time support is tested it gets weaker

[bull....]

Sorry balance ….meant to say hey Bull

till there's a reason for it to not

[BlackPeter]

Each time support is tested it gets weaker

Well, I guess depending on your timeframe you have either a falling wedge (which would be bullish) or a dropping wedge) which would be not so bullish). But yes, a wedge we have.

Take your picks.

[ValueNZ]

I would consider the SP around here, or lower, as an accumulation opportunity for the longer term.
I'd say even at book value OCA would probably be a reasonable investment for most people. Not that I'd necessarily pay that, I think I'd have other opportunities to invest capital elsewhere.

[ValueNZ]

Well, I guess depending on your timeframe you have either a falling wedge (which would be bullish) or a dropping wedge) which would be not so bullish). But yes, a wedge we have.

Take your picks.
Either it's bullish or not so bullish. Thanks BP!

[BlackPeter]

Either it's bullish or not so bullish. Thanks BP!

Just decide for yourself and and trust your judgement. It may or may not work out ;) ;

[mike2020]

All seems bullish to me, am I saying that right? I have had an order in at 74 since Monday last week. If it gets hit then I bet thats the breakdown.

[bull....]

I'd say even at book value OCA would probably be a reasonable investment for most people. Not that I'd necessarily pay that, I think I'd have other opportunities to invest capital elsewhere.

both you and baa baa who both rave on about the value in oca at current prices

explain when does a supposed value investment become a bad investment

[ValueNZ]

both you and baa baa who both rave on about the value in oca at current prices

explain when does a supposed value investment become a bad investment
When the sum of what you predict to be the future discounted cash flows divided by the shares outstanding falls below the price you paid for your shares.

Oceania could fall to 1c tomorrow and it wouldn't become a bad investment. It would become the worlds greatest investment.

[ziggy415]

When the sum of what you predict to be the future discounted cash flows divided by the shares outstanding falls below the price you paid for your shares.

Oceania could fall to 1c tomorrow and it wouldn't become a bad investment. It would become the worlds greatest investment.

Are you sailor rob in disguise:scared:

[ValueNZ]

Are you sailor rob in disguise:scared:
No but I greatly admire his investing philosophy. I think he gets unbanned in the next few days.

[Curly]

Why was the Sailor banned. Was it a post on another thread?

[bull....]

No but I greatly admire his investing philosophy. I think he gets unbanned in the next few days.

thats good i miss his no holds barred style

[bull....]

When the sum of what you predict to be the future discounted cash flows divided by the shares outstanding falls below the price you paid for your shares.

Oceania could fall to 1c tomorrow and it wouldn't become a bad investment. It would become the worlds greatest investment.

good glad you have a plan and a stop loss.

[ValueNZ]

good glad you have a plan and a stop loss.
I never said I have a stop loss, I would never use one. The very idea of being willing to sell a stock at a lower price than you paid for it just because the stock price fell is absolute brain-rot.

[bull....]

I never said I have a stop loss, I would never use one. The very idea of being willing to sell a stock at a lower price than you paid for it just because the stock price fell is absolute brain-rot.

then you didnt answer the question

again i say when does a value stock become a bad investment or do you not sell a bad investment

[Azz]

When the sum of what you predict to be the future discounted cash flows divided by the shares outstanding falls below the price you paid for your shares.

Oceania could fall to 1c tomorrow and it wouldn't become a bad investment. It would become the worlds greatest investment.

lol.................

[ValueNZ]

then you didnt answer the question

again i say when does a value stock become a bad investment or do you not sell a bad investment
I answered your question read my post again.


lol.................
Epic post Azz I really enjoy your posts and knowledge of capital markets keep it up.

In seriousness can you elaborate on what it is in my post you disagree with?

[Azz]

Epic post Azz I really enjoy your posts and knowledge of capital markets keep it up.

In seriousness can you elaborate on what it is in my post you disagree with?

Well all of it actually, and especially this bit:

"Oceania could fall to 1c tomorrow and it wouldn't become a bad investment. It would become the worlds greatest investment."

That's a patently ridiculous statement. I'm not even going to try and explain it.

Re the Value stuff, you're taking it too far. I've already provided in some post to you somewhere on the site a similar example (it was BlackBerry vs iPhone) as to the following...:

Let's say there's no electricity, hasn't been invented, not a thing - and you've found a wonderful oil lamp and candle Value play; you do the numbers, you can't wait to invest, you finish your research, then you put a bunch of money into it, buy buy buy hold hold hold...... And during all that, unbeknownst to you, some son of a bitch has found a way to control electric current and is bringing it to market. Your "future discounted cash flows blah blah" won't mean diddly sh*t at that point eh.

[ValueNZ]

That's a patently ridiculous statement. I'm not even going to try and explain it.
Of course it is extreme, it is a hypothetical scenario to prove a point. That point is a stock doesn't become a "bad" investment just because the price has fallen, it actually becomes far greater. Would you not buy shares at 1c? How about if the whole company was offered up for free?


Re the Value stuff, you're taking it too far. I've already provided in some post to you somewhere on the site a similar example (it was BlackBerry vs iPhone) as to the following...:

Let's say there's no electricity, hasn't been invented, not a thing - and you've found a wonderful oil lamp and candle Value play; you do the numbers, you cant wait to invest, you finish your research, then you put a bunch of money into it, buy buy buy hold hold hold...... And during all that, unbeknownst to you, some son of a bitch has found a way to control electric current and is bringing it to market. Your "future discounted cash flows blah blah" won't mean diddly sh*t at that point eh.
That is a legitimate risk in business and yes I have addressed it. I said that usually investing in any one given company is not a sure thing. But you mitigate this risk by using a large margin of safety.

[Azz]

That is a legitimate risk in business and yes I have addressed it. I said that usually investing in any one given company is not a sure thing. But you mitigate this risk by using a large margin of safety.

I think [losing] market is much more important than "value". If you spend some time working at it, you will find hundreds of alleged value plays. Most of them won't work out, so which ones will you invest in? In case you're unaware, Nvidia can basically make its own price for its A.I. systems and that's across the entire industry (hardware, software, datacenters); this situation is the nirvana of investing, they own the market.

[winner69]

Close on that 74 today

Tomorrow could be interesting if it breaks down below that 74 …….but then maybe Brent will tell us he’s said all those villages and even better got settlement on a few The Helier apartments and the price will break through 79

[bull....]

Of course it is extreme, it is a hypothetical scenario to prove a point. That point is a stock doesn't become a "bad" investment just because the price has fallen, it actually becomes far greater. Would you not buy shares at 1c? How about if the whole company was offered up for free?


i dont understand this if you take OCA from inception based on price

i get an annualized return of 4.89% approx including div's from ipo to now ..... hardly inspiring :scared: so if the price fell more going forward your annualized return will keep falling going forward :scared:

so say for example if you get a -5% return in 2024 based on stock price alone that would lower your annualized return to under 4% :scared: so how is this better for value investors ?

[bull....]

Close on that 74 today

Tomorrow could be interesting if it breaks down below that 74 …….but then maybe Brent will tell us he’s said all those villages and even better got settlement on a few The Helier apartments and the price will break through 79

looks like an attack happening on 74c

[ronaldson]

Agree. Over 1m transacted at 74c already today and the usual wall of sellers at 75/76/77. This share needs a positive update announcement, and the absence of one over the last month or so leads to the inference one is not possible/available.

[Greekwatchdog]

And rather big trades going thru ARV as well, especially considering another low volume day on NZX.

[BlackPeter]

Of course it is extreme, it is a hypothetical scenario to prove a point. That point is a stock doesn't become a "bad" investment just because the price has fallen, it actually becomes far greater. Would you not buy shares at 1c? How about if the whole company was offered up for free?


That is a legitimate risk in business and yes I have addressed it. I said that usually investing in any one given company is not a sure thing. But you mitigate this risk by using a large margin of safety.


i dont understand this if you take OCA from inception based on price

i get an annualized return of 4.89% approx including div's from ipo to now ..... hardly inspiring :scared: so if the price fell more going forward your annualized return will keep falling going forward :scared:

so say for example if you get a -5% return in 2024 based on stock price alone that would lower your annualized return to under 4% :scared: so how is this better for value investors ?

I think the original question was something like - when is a deep value company turning into a bad investment?

Wouldn't you need to consider in this context as well investment timeframe and risks instead of just looking at the daily jitter of the share price and perhaps the dividends?

Any sensible investor will have an investment timeframe and an idea which return they want to get at the end of this time frame (be it as dividends or as capitalgains or as a combination of both).

Say I invest OCA for 20 years and I get in average 8% out of them (thats sort of 4% dividend and 4% capital gains per year), than I am reasonably happy.

If the shareprice does during my investment timeframe a rollercoaster ride (as OCA as well as any other retirement village operator currently does), than I probably expect for a good investment a bit more than the 8% pa at the end to still call it a good investment - just to compensate for the excitement (ok - increased risk).

If I find out after 20 years that the company paid 4% dividend but returns only half of my capital (or less), than I am not happy - bad investment - because the investment was basically a Zero rated bond (or less) for me. But hard to say at which point in time it turned into a bad investment. You often can determine this point in time with the benefit of hindsight, but that's only of academical interest,it does not help you to conserve your capital.

Does this mean I never sell? Of course I do. Maybe the point you guys are looking for is when a reasonable investor can't expect anymore to get from his/her investment the return (s)he envisaged.

So - for me the point when a deep value play turns into a bad investment is when I can't reasonably expect anymore from my investment the return on my capital I originally planned for within my investment timeframe. This would be for OCA, if one of the assumptions in their business case turn sour - like e.g. old people don't need care anymore because medicine invented this new drug which keeps anybody forever young, or old people can't afford anymore to pay for care, or there are no old people anymore.

The jitter of the share price on the way to my investment target would be quite irrelevant, unless I need to assume that the TA points toward fundamental issues impacting my investment target (which it sometimes does and sometimes doesn't - and yes, it is not always possible to distinguish between these two cases).

Does this help?

[bull....]

I think the original question was something like - when is a deep value company turning into a bad investment?

Wouldn't you need to consider in this context as well investment timeframe and risks instead of just looking at the daily jitter of the share price and perhaps the dividends?

Any sensible investor will have an investment timeframe and an idea which return they want to get at the end of this time frame (be it as dividends or as capitalgains or as a combination of both).

Say I invest OCA for 20 years and I get in average 8% out of them (thats sort of 4% dividend and 4% capital gains per year), than I am reasonably happy.

If the shareprice does during my investment timeframe a rollercoaster ride (as OCA as well as any other retirement village operator currently does), than I probably expect for a good investment a bit more than the 8% pa at the end to still call it a good investment - just to compensate for the excitement (ok - increased risk).

If I find out after 20 years that the company paid 4% dividend but returns only half of my capital (or less), than I am not happy - bad investment - because the investment was basically a Zero rated bond (or less) for me. But hard to say at which point in time it turned into a bad investment. You often can determine this point in time with the benefit of hindsight, but that's only of academical interest,it does not help you to conserve your capital.

Does this mean I never sell? Of course I do. Maybe the point you guys are looking for is when a reasonable investor can't expect anymore to get from his/her investment the return (s)he envisaged.

So - for me the point when a deep value play turns into a bad investment is when I can't reasonably expect anymore from my investment the return on my capital I originally planned for within my investment timeframe. This would be for OCA, if one of the assumptions in their business case turn sour - like e.g. old people don't need care anymore because medicine invented this new drug which keeps anybody forever young, or old people can't afford anymore to pay for care, or there are no old people anymore.

The jitter of the share price on the way to my investment target would be quite irrelevant, unless I need to assume that the TA points toward fundamental issues impacting my investment target (which it sometimes does and sometimes doesn't - and yes, it is not always possible to distinguish between these two cases).

Does this help?

no your just guessing the future and hoping your right , not good investing

OCA from ipo to end of 2020 had an annualized return roughly of 14.5% quite good investment i would say

So the question is the following periods on from 21 to ongoing the returns have been dismal :scared:

so at what stage should an investor have said hang on this investment is no good anymore ... simply keeping on saying im a value investor and one day ( hope hope hope ) it be right is bulls...t investing unless you can prove otherwise

[ronaldson]

And rather big trades going thru ARV as well, especially considering another low volume day on NZX.

Correct. Over 1.5m volume already at a VWAP barely over $1.22 which in turn is a 2c fall on yesterday.

If I reflect upon the serious amount of ongoing advertising of units (villas and apartments) currently by all the listed operators and Metlifecare, and the discount incentives being offered, one could reach the conclusion that perhaps the number of sales being achieved is not sufficient at the moment and the wider property market is not as helpful as some wish to suggest. Despite very marginal median price increases for residential housing stock the cost of mortgage finance is mitigating numbers of actual settlements, and hence slow sales by RV operators in what is after all a very competitive marketplace in most geographic locations.

And wage increases for nurses and aged care staff (which I do not begrudge) will have eaten up most of the recent bed subsidy increase already. There are several listed operators presently endeavoring to on-sell rest homes, which apart from being almost unprecedented is without any announced success apart from RAD which has conditionally sold one facility in hopes of reducing debt.

So the market pricing of the shares of the minor players at least are under significant pressure just now. It seems unlikely any coalition outcome resulting from October's election will offer any relief that I can see so a revival in fortunes isn't imminent.

[ValueNZ]

no your just guessing the future and hoping your right , not good investing

OCA from ipo to end of 2020 had an annualized return roughly of 14.5% quite good investment i would say

So the question is the following periods on from 21 to ongoing the returns have been dismal :scared:

so at what stage should an investor have said hang on this investment is no good anymore ... simply keeping on saying im a value investor and one day ( hope hope hope ) it be right is bulls...t investing unless you can prove otherwise
If the share price continues falling despite the companies balance sheet getting stronger each year, and future cash flow potential continues growing, there is a burden on the future for higher returns. And each year the difference between intrinsic value and price grows, the greater the burden becomes.

It's like telling me you think paying $1 for $1 worth of value is a good investment, whilst paying $0.50 for $1.00 is a bad investment because it's underperformed in the past. Its the complete opposite!

[BlackPeter]

no your just guessing the future and hoping your right , not good investing

OCA from ipo to end of 2020 had an annualized return roughly of 14.5% quite good investment i would say

So the question is the following periods on from 21 to ongoing the returns have been dismal :scared:

so at what stage should an investor have said hang on this investment is no good anymore ... simply keeping on saying im a value investor and one day ( hope hope hope ) it be right is bulls...t investing unless you can prove otherwise

It feels like you look for this omniscient being or oracle, telling you the future. If you find that, then - absolutely, go for it and you will be right. Didn't met so far anybody who was successful (and could prove that), though they seem to talk about these beings in temples, mosques and churches ...

OK, until you find one and they are happy to share with you their knowledge about the future, I am afraid any investment is just guessing. You have a model which sometimes works and sometimes doesn't. You can apply some methods of extrapolation on your model which sometimes work and sometimes don't, and maybe you can use based on previous observations some likelihoods - but you never will know for sure whether an investment is a failure or a success until after the end of your investment timeframe.

Sorry - this is reality, but maybe you find an alternative one :) ;

[Azz]

If the share price continues falling despite the companies balance sheet getting stronger each year, and future cash flow potential continues growing, there is a burden on the future for higher returns. And each year the difference between intrinsic value and price grows, the greater the burden becomes.

It's like telling me you think paying $1 for $1 worth of value is a good investment, whilst paying $0.50 for $1.00 is a bad investment because it's underperformed in the past. Its the complete opposite!

I suggest you start buying companies outright and take them private.

[ValueNZ]

I suggest you start buying companies outright and take them private.
Maybe one day ;)

[bull....]

It feels like you look for this omniscient being or oracle, telling you the future. If you find that, then - absolutely, go for it and you will be right. Didn't met so far anybody who was successful (and could prove that), though they seem to talk about these beings in temples, mosques and churches ...

OK, until you find one and they are happy to share with you their knowledge about the future, I am afraid any investment is just guessing. You have a model which sometimes works and sometimes doesn't. You can apply some methods of extrapolation on your model which sometimes work and sometimes don't, and maybe you can use based on previous observations some likelihoods - but you never will know for sure whether an investment is a failure or a success until after the end of your investment timeframe.

Sorry - this is reality, but maybe you find an alternative one :) ;

actually if you use my example it was actually easy to see the future

oca relies on property development profits for growth
property market peaked
rates rising

simple fundamentals analysis that explains that you should have sold during yr 21 if you had factored these macro events into your value proposition ie future returns

[BlackPeter]

actually if you use my example it was actually easy to see the future

oca relies on property development profits for growth
property market peaked
rates rising

simple fundamentals analysis that explains that you should have sold during yr 21 if you had factored these macro events into your value proposition ie future returns

I think we have here a clash of philosophies.

Traders sell as soon as they think they are reaching (or reached) a peak. Buy back after the coming trough. Great strategy, if they are right, but as anybody else, they are fallible. So far I only met traders who could explain me with the benefit of hindsight why something used to be at a peak or at a trough. So, cheers for letting us know that 2021 was the time to sell, but at this stage any schoolchild (even with NZ based maths) could tell you that.

Investors sell only when they think the underlying fundamentals changed ... and even then - if they assume they come right again, they just hold.

Obviously - in theory trading would be the more successful strategy, if you could reliably predict the future. However, so far I met nobody who can (well, repeatable and sustainable, everything else is just luck).

Which means - in practise it is traders who waste a lot of money on trading fees ... if they are wrong, they need to buy (or sell) again and lost some margins plus a lot of fees and taxes (in the case they get it right). But again - I know -with the benefit of hindsight you can make amazing deals!

This is the reason why there are in reality more successful investors than traders, but - lets not dive into this subject, well - at least not on this thread, shall we?

[X-men]

Nasty dog stock

[winner69]

Does the action around the high volume trades today suggest somebody wanted out (by taking a bit less than prevailing price) and (was fortunate?) to find buyer(s) at the reduced price.?


maybe somebody selling now hoping to pick up cheap shares in a capital raise

[Valuegrowth]

What kind of attack?
looks like an attack happening on 74c

[Baa_Baa]

Does the action around the high volume trades today suggest somebody wanted out (by taking a bit less than prevailing price) and (was fortunate?) to find buyer(s) at the reduced price.?


maybe somebody selling now hoping to pick up cheap shares in a capital raise

Some of the parcels might indicate EOM rebalancing, they're way more than retail investors. Interestingly all of those took a cent lower each time to make the trade.

Insto's losing interest, or just rebalancing their books? Didn't get any of mine, that's for sure.

[bull....]

I think we have here a clash of philosophies.

Traders sell as soon as they think they are reaching (or reached) a peak. Buy back after the coming trough. Great strategy, if they are right, but as anybody else, they are fallible. So far I only met traders who could explain me with the benefit of hindsight why something used to be at a peak or at a trough. So, cheers for letting us know that 2021 was the time to sell, but at this stage any schoolchild (even with NZ based maths) could tell you that.

Investors sell only when they think the underlying fundamentals changed ... and even then - if they assume they come right again, they just hold.

Obviously - in theory trading would be the more successful strategy, if you could reliably predict the future. However, so far I met nobody who can (well, repeatable and sustainable, everything else is just luck).

Which means - in practise it is traders who waste a lot of money on trading fees ... if they are wrong, they need to buy (or sell) again and lost some margins plus a lot of fees and taxes (in the case they get it right). But again - I know -with the benefit of hindsight you can make amazing deals!

This is the reason why there are in reality more successful investors than traders, but - lets not dive into this subject, well - at least not on this thread, shall we?

i dont see how selling after 3 odd years makes you a trader

[BlackPeter]

i dont see how selling after 3 odd years makes you a trader

Just show me where it is stated that anybody selling after three years must be an investor? Anybody who intends to make money with buying and selling is a trader. Ask IRD l;) ; No bright line on shares :);

But again - we deviate. If you want to continue this discussion, please put it into the relevant forum.