OCA - Oceania Group - retirement villages

[Leemsip]

Thank goodness SR not around currently. The narrative would have been unbearable as the stock price declines....
Bit more balanced without him.

[mistaTea]

Thank goodness SR not around currently. The narrative would have been unbearable as the stock price declines....
Bit more balanced without him.

I think we would all have to admit the OCA forum has been quite pleasant lately - people have been able to express their views/ideas without being trampled all over.

Long may it continue.

[Balance]

Thank goodness SR not around currently. The narrative would have been unbearable as the stock price declines....
Bit more balanced without him.

You talking about me? :D

[Rawz]

Thank goodness SR not around currently. The narrative would have been unbearable as the stock price declines....
Bit more balanced without him.

Ill do it lol.

Listen here sport. Go spend 600 hours reading Buffett's letters then come back here and tell us why the SP dropping isnt the best thing for shareholders.
It's free money.
Your 303 posts have contributed nothing.
When I get back on my laptop I'm going to destroy you all

[Muse]

Ill do it lol.

Listen here sport. Go spend 600 hours reading Buffett's letters then come back here and tell us why the SP dropping isnt the best thing for shareholders.
It's free money.
Your 303 posts have contributed nothing.
When I get back on my laptop I'm going to destroy you all

scary, just scary....

though could add

"Oh yeah? Well I CHALLENGE you to a $100,000 bet - proceeds to your charity of choice - that xyz will occur. Here is the contract"

and

"Well if you disagree with me I demand you show me your returns! Give me proof of your total financial wealth and its returns over the same period"

[Baa_Baa]

Metlife half year results out

Huge operating loss ($32m) and cash burn. Hope Oceania not doing this bad …. But you worry when Metlife are also going through transformation …in their case towards Full Potential

They said -

The increase in operating revenue was due to growth in deferred
management fees from resales and new development village sales, higher care and village fees. The decrease in the total revenue is due to a lower gain in fair value movement on investment properties compared to the previous reporting period.

The loss from continuing operations and the total net loss can be attributed to the lower gain, in addition to significant investment in employee, property, digital and other expenses.



http://nzx-prod-s7fsd7f98s.s3-website-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/attachments/MET/426700/413249.pdf

Where did you get that $ number and those quotes from? I don't think they are in the link you provided.

[Balance]

All things being equal, I believe Mav’s assessment is a fair assumption. It is a case of supply exceeding demand at a particular period/point in time. Likewise, demand exceeds supply when a stock is included in the index.

But all things are not equal however, stock to stock.

It also depends on whether there’s any developments, positive or negative, post the indexing change.

So do be careful!

Ryman's earnings downgrade (its third since the capital raising last year) is the single biggest cloud hanging over OCA until it reports its results in May.

3 loooooong months to go before shareholders or the market will get any proper update on how sales and profits are tracking.

So be careful out there.

[Cupsy]

@muse and rawz, it's a bit low putting digs into someone who isn't able to reply imo.

And rawz, you mention sp dropping wrt to buffett comment, I notice a few ppl have been considering a buy in the last couple of days, so there must be some logic to prices dropping presenting an opportunity.

[winner69]

Where did you get that $ number and those quotes from? I don't think they are in the link you provided.

In this

http://nzx-prod-s7fsd7f98s.s3-website-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/attachments/MET/426700/413248.pdf

[Baa_Baa]

In this

http://nzx-prod-s7fsd7f98s.s3-website-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/attachments/MET/426700/413248.pdf

Where did you get the $32m number from?

[Balance]

Where did you get the $32m number from?

Dial back the $10.1m of revaluation gain on investment property and you get the $32m.

Debt up by another $147m - relentlessly climbing up.

MET shareholders are extremely lucky that there was a takeover offer to relieve them of their shares!!!!!!!

[Balance]

@muse and rawz, it's a bit low putting digs into someone who isn't able to reply imo.

And rawz, you mention sp dropping wrt to buffett comment, I notice a few ppl have been considering a buy in the last couple of days, so there must be some logic to prices dropping presenting an opportunity.

Don't you worry about that - SR has his sidekick ValueNZ to cover for him.

And isn't he doing a great job?

[Cupsy]

Don't you worry about that - SR has his sidekick ValueNZ to cover for him.

And isn't he doing a great job?

I don't quite get the point you are making, nice but dim they call me. You'll have to explain it sorry.

[allfromacell]

Dial back the $10.1m of revaluation gain on investment property and you get the $32m.

Debt up by another $147m - relentlessly climbing up.

MET shareholders are extremely lucky that there was a takeover offer to relieve them of their shares!!!!!!!

Just to add some balance:

'Total assets $5.961bn, up from $5.637bn at 30 June 2023'

'Total sales of occupation right agreements for the period increased by 12.9% to $218.1
million, reinforcing the high demand for Metlifecare’s villages and reflecting a strong resale
portfolio and growing development sales activity.'

[Balance]

I don't quite get the point you are making, nice but dim they call me. You'll have to explain it sorry.

The two of them are soul buddies in articulating the views (eg. OCA sp at zero is perfect) of SR.

ValueNZ even tried to get me to contact SR to arrange the $50,000 bet where SR asserted OCA will be $3.22 in 2040, knowing full well that SR has zero intention of following through with the bet.

SR was already busy trying to change the bet (refer his postings) when I offered to take him up on the bet.

What a joke!

https://media1.giphy.com/media/O5NyCibf93upy/200.webp

[Daytr]

Where did you get the $32m number from?

I assume it's the before tax loss?
After tax loss was $22M.

[Rawz]

@muse and rawz, it's a bit low putting digs into someone who isn't able to reply imo.

And rawz, you mention sp dropping wrt to buffett comment, I notice a few ppl have been considering a buy in the last couple of days, so there must be some logic to prices dropping presenting an opportunity.

Its just a bit of fun Cupsy, dont sweat it. Sailorboy definitely knows how to give it.. Im sure he will be fine reading these and not being able to reply wont bother him one bit.

Cupsy, Im not sure where you stand on the matter.. but if you invested say 70% of your portfolio into stock ABC and then it drops 20% would be happy with this or would you prefer to invest the 70% after the 20% drop?

Most prefer to buy after the drop but Sailor reckons best to buy then see it drop.

[Cupsy]

Don't you worry about that - SR has his sidekick ValueNZ to cover for him.

And isn't he doing a great job?


Its just a bit of fun Cupsy, dont sweat it. Sailorboy definitely knows how to give it.. Im sure he will be fine reading these and not being able to reply wont bother him one bit.

Cupsy, Im not sure where you stand on the matter.. but if you invested say 70% of your portfolio into stock ABC and then it drops 20% would be happy with this or would you prefer to invest the 70% after the 20% drop?

Most prefer to buy after the drop but Sailor reckons best to buy then see it drop.

Well what your talking about is timing the market, which in my opinion is impossible.

But I'll reply with a question, sr takes his position, it drops 20% then you take yours, but then it drops another 20%, now what do you do?

If you believe you got a bargain, you reasses, still think you were right, then the only logical mindset is to think the bargain got better.

Or you reasses and conclude you got it wrong, in which case you sell and take the hit.

There's only two sides to it, either your assessment was right or the sellers was right, and no one knows the answer until things play out in the future.

[Cupsy]

Don't you worry about that - SR has his sidekick ValueNZ to cover for him.

And isn't he doing a great job?


The two of them are soul buddies in articulating the views (eg. OCA sp at zero is perfect) of SR.

ValueNZ even tried to get me to contact SR to arrange the $50,000 bet where SR asserted OCA will be $3.22 in 2040, knowing full well that SR has zero intention of following through with the bet.

SR was already busy trying to change the bet (refer his postings) when I offered to take him up on the bet.

What a joke!

https://media1.giphy.com/media/O5NyCibf93upy/200.webp

I know Rob in real life, he's always made bets with ppl, and followed through on them. I've never ever taken a bet with him or anyone else.

[Balance]

I know Rob in real life, he's always made bets with ppl, and followed through on them. I've never ever taken a bet with him or anyone else.

Like I wrote (refer his posts), he was already trying to change the bet when I offered to take him up on the $3.22 OCA sp in 2040 - a bet I could not lose.

[ValueNZ]

Well what your talking about is timing the market, which in my opinion is impossible.

But I'll reply with a question, sr takes his position, it drops 20% then you take yours, but then it drops another 20%, now what do you do?

If you believe you got a bargain, you reasses, still think you were right, then the only logical mindset is to think the bargain got better.

Or you reasses and conclude you got it wrong, in which case you sell and take the hit.

There's only two sides to it, either your assessment was right or the sellers was right, and no one knows the answer until things play out in the future.
What you wrote makes total sense. But 99% of people here will still disagree with you.

[Cupsy]

Like I wrote (refer his posts), he was already trying to change the bet when I offered to take him up on the $3.22 OCA sp in 2040 - a bet I could not lose.
Extremely unlucky for you that you can't make it then if you "could not lose"

[Rawz]

Well what your talking about is timing the market, which in my opinion is impossible.

But I'll reply with a question, sr takes his position, it drops 20% then you take yours, but then it drops another 20%, now what do you do?

If you believe you got a bargain, you reasses, still think you were right, then the only logical mindset is to think the bargain got better.

Or you reasses and conclude you got it wrong, in which case you sell and take the hit.

There's only two sides to it, either your assessment was right or the sellers was right, and no one knows the answer until things play out in the future.

You sound like a politician :p answering a question with a question.

Clearly the seller was right. He/she can now buy the position back for 20% less. Its basic math.

[Cupsy]

You sound like a politician :p answering a question with a question.

Clearly the seller was right. He/she can now buy the position back for 20% less. Its basic math.

So if you sold to sr, then bought back after the 20% drop, then it dropped the next 20% you were right? :p

[Rawz]

So if you sold to sr, then bought back after the 20% drop, then it dropped the next 20% you were right? :p

We both wrong. But Sailor would be extra extra wrong. Even though his investment would down a boat load he apparently would be jumping for joy, based on his theory.

[ValueNZ]

We both wrong. But Sailor would be extra extra wrong. Even though his investment would down a boat load he apparently would be jumping for joy, based on his theory.
Being able to buy a dollar of future discounted cash flows for 50c doesn't become a bad deal just because the market is now pricing it at 25c.

[Cupsy]

We both wrong. But Sailor would be extra extra wrong. Even though his investment would down a boat load he apparently would be jumping for joy, based on his theory.

In reality we can argue this forever from lots of different perspectives, but end of the day someone lost on the trade someone won, and those magnitudes vary with the different trades. Only time can tell for certain.

[Rawz]

Being able to buy a dollar of future discounted cash flows for 50c doesn't become a bad deal just because the market is now pricing it at 25c.

Just another piece of mumbo jumbo Sailorboy has taught you. Money is money.

[mistaTea]

In reality we can argue this forever from lots of different perspectives, but end of the day someone lost on the trade someone won, and those magnitudes vary with the different trades. Only time can tell for certain.

Yeah. And SR is right about a lot of stuff - in particular the long term buy-and-hold philosophy for companies you understand that has served Buffett well for longer than many of us posters have even been alive.

But Cupsy, I wouldn't spend any time on here trying to thread the needle between defending your friend's honour and having robust conversation about OCA.

All the really good and meaningful contributions SR has made towards understanding the OCA business model (and investment philosophy in general) have been undone by the way he chooses to treat people. If a lot of people on ST now have a strong dislike for him - well that is on him.

Difficult I know because you are friends irl, but be careful not to get sucked into all of that is my unsolicited advice.

[mike2020]

Yeah I completely get what sr says and agree from his perspective its 100% but for others who are fully invested and maybe shorter term its the complete opposite. Simple.
I have heard a rumor he wanders the cbd asking apartment dwellers to drop him down a good sharp knife... 😁

[ValueNZ]

Yeah. And SR is right about a lot of stuff - in particular the long term buy-and-hold philosophy for companies you understand that has served Buffett well for longer than many of us posters have even been alive.

But Cupsy, I wouldn't spend any time on here trying to thread the needle between defending your friend's honour and having robust conversation about OCA.

All the really good and meaningful contributions SR has made towards understanding the OCA business model (and investment philosophy in general) have been undone by the way he chooses to treat people. If a lot of people on ST now have a strong dislike for him - well that is on him.

Difficult I know because you are friends irl, but be careful not to get sucked into all of that is my unsolicited advice.
mistaTea when his EMH BS is called out for what it is.

https://www.youtube.com/shorts/30SRQ5RVQiM

[Cupsy]

Yeah. And SR is right about a lot of stuff - in particular the long term buy-and-hold philosophy for companies you understand that has served Buffett well for longer than many of us posters have even been alive.

But Cupsy, I wouldn't spend any time on here trying to thread the needle between defending your friend's honour and having robust conversation about OCA.

All the really good and meaningful contributions SR has made towards understanding the OCA business model (and investment philosophy in general) have been undone by the way he chooses to treat people. If a lot of people on ST now have a strong dislike for him - well that is on him.

Difficult I know because you are friends irl, but be careful not to get sucked into all of that is my unsolicited advice.

You might need to expand on what you mean by the needle threading, as I'm not picking up what you are putting down, unless you say commenting when ppl are putting digs in to ppl when they can't reply is a no no, and to that I'd probably say something regardless of who it was.

If you are speaking with regard to investing and my comments, they will be similar to value nz and sr as I follow the same ideology of value, probably read alot of similar books etc etc, nothing to do with defending.

[Balance]

Extremely unlucky for you that you can't make it then if you "could not lose"

LOL - I posted my rationale and all are welcome to critique it.

Better still, take the bet with SR if you can get him to offer you the bet. :t_up:

[mistaTea]

mistaTea when his EMH BS is called out for what it is.

https://www.youtube.com/shorts/30SRQ5RVQiM

https://media1.tenor.com/m/lNMyjjSWLYcAAAAd/my-man-my-man-denzel.gif

[Cupsy]

LOL - I posted my rationale and all are welcome to critique it.

Better still, take the bet with SR if you can get him to offer you the bet. :t_up:

No offence to anyone but I'd never be silly enough to take a bet with anyone, for starters the person offering the bet starts with probability on there side as they are chosing what the bet is about, and only a fool would offer a bet that they thought was not in their favour. Industries are built on offering you bets, and not many ppl who take them up on the bet come off a winner.

[Daytr]

I see the ghost of SailorBoy still dominates this thread....
What was up, was down & visa versa, everything has an equal and opposite reaction apparently, bla bla bla.
We heard it to infinitum.

The key thing I took away from all the Buffett wannabes is that choose a bluechip stock & over time you really can't go wrong, well on average.

My question always has been & my answer is.
Does OCA qualify for such confidence as Buffett has put in some of the biggest brand names in the world? Short answer. No.

That doesn't mean I'm not positive toward OCA, I am, but it's not without risk as some on here have conveyed in the past.

[mike2020]

If you were holding OCA Monday it was obvious there was a trade to be made if you were so inclined. What happens Monday on SUMs results could be the opposite.

[winner69]

As expected no response to my email to Clare, General Counsel as well as investor@oceaniahealthcare.co.nx to showing them Mavericks request ‘please,please give us an update’

Invited her to get Liz to have a look at this thread

I’ll leave it next week before following …..she probably busy as this week

[mistaTea]

The key thing I took away from all the Buffett wannabes is that choose a bluechip stock & over time you really can't go wrong, well on average.



Yes, I think most people who just bought a small basket of Blue Chips, and dollar cost averaged into them over their investing life would come out the other end with more than satisfactory returns.

True opportunities where the market has just completely mispriced a stock for no rational reason at all are incredibly rare these days. That does not mean it never ever happens, bit it is rare.

Not like in Buffett's partnership days in the 50's and 60's where he said finding undervalued stocks was like "shooting fish in a barrel".

It is my opinion that the small retail investor will do better long term by just focussing on good companies that can be understood and are likely to be worth more in the future. Don't try to get fixated on being smarter than everyone else by thinking you can find 'undervalued' stocks (and then calling anyone with a different view an idiot).

If you like the OCA business, understand it well and have reason to believe it will be worth more in the future then go hard. I wish you well. But don't make the mistake of thinking everyone else is stupid and you are currently getting it for half off, because you probably aren't.

[bottomfeeder]

Looks like retail investors panicking but fund mansgers (ANZ Investments) buying. Who knows best.

I read someone complaining after Rymans revision that "they pay $8,000 a month for their dad yet Ryman made a loss, what is going on."

Just goes to show some idiots listen to lots of Rubbish out there. The sector is still profitable, as always there can be small blips. The whole sector is well oversold particularly OCA.

[winner69]

ANZ buying even more

Only SSH from them seem to be for PEB and OCA

Obviously see value

Hey value ….does you Dad or brother work for ANZ Investments

[bull....]

Looks like retail investors panicking but fund mansgers (ANZ Investments) buying. Who knows best.

I read someone complaining after Rymans revision that "they pay $8,000 a month for their dad yet Ryman made a loss, what is going on."

Just goes to show some idiots listen to lots of Rubbish out there. The sector is still profitable, as always there can be small blips. The whole sector is well oversold particularly OCA.

yes anz who also have a very large holding in peb ... smart cookies :scared: but really someone has to hold the bad dont they

[winner69]

yes anz who also have a very large holding in peb ... smart cookies :scared: but really someone has to hold the bad dont they

Pretty stellar performance over the years

But Value would say performance not good

https://www.anz.co.nz/content/dam/anzconz/documents/personal/investments-kiwisaver/ANZ-FundPerformance.pdf

[bull....]

Pretty stellar performance over the years

But Value would say performance not good

https://www.anz.co.nz/content/dam/anzconz/documents/personal/investments-kiwisaver/ANZ-FundPerformance.pdf

bag holders ?

[bull....]

how will stagflation effect OCA , people should ask themselves. also people should ask themselves if OCA or for any matter any RV is such good value why are the prices of all at or near multi yr lows.

and why do the bots wait for volume to build and then hammer new lows. anyway covid weekly low is 51c

[Rawz]

how will stagflation effect OCA , people should ask themselves. also people should ask themselves if OCA or for any matter any RV is such good value why are the prices of all at or near multi yr lows.

and why do the bots wait for volume to build and then hammer new lows. anyway covid weekly low is 51c

what price are you looking for to get in on your trade?

[Perky]

how will stagflation effect OCA , people should ask themselves. also people should ask themselves if OCA or for any matter any RV is such good value why are the prices of all at or near multi yr lows.

and why do the bots wait for volume to build and then hammer new lows. anyway covid weekly low is 51c

I don’t think stagflation will be bad for RV Bull as the oldies are still getting older everyday and they need somewhere safe to live and get care no matter what the economy is doing at any point of time.
Stagflation might be bad for other types of property like discretionary retail and office blocks

The RVs will adjust their operating model as they are now.

Life goes on…it might just be share traders I think who find it hard to make a living in stagflation times…don’t worry bull if it all gets to hard trying the time the markets you could become a caregiver at one of the RV to supplement your trading income …the oldies will welcome you…they will still be in business…

Why wouldn’t you buy some RV stock as part of a balanced portfolio…buy low and sell high…better to be taking a position somewhere near the bottom and hold for the recovery than buy at top of the cycle…just dont need to get greedy and go all in.

Just about all nzx listed property stocks at at lows…SUM is not.

[RTM]

@muse and rawz, it's a bit low putting digs into someone who isn't able to reply imo.

And rawz, you mention sp dropping wrt to buffett comment, I notice a few ppl have been considering a buy in the last couple of days, so there must be some logic to prices dropping presenting an opportunity.

Completely agree.

[bull....]

I don’t think stagflation will be bad for RV Bull as the oldies are still getting older everyday and they need somewhere safe to live and get care no matter what the economy is doing at any point of time.
Stagflation might be bad for other types of property like discretionary retail and office blocks

The RVs will adjust their operating model as they are now.

Life goes on…it might just be share traders I think who find it hard to make a living in stagflation times…don’t worry bull if it all gets to hard trying the time the markets you could become a caregiver at one of the RV to supplement your trading income …the oldies will welcome you…they will still be in business…

Why wouldn’t you buy some RV stock as part of a balanced portfolio…buy low and sell high…better to be taking a position somewhere near the bottom and hold for the recovery than buy at top of the cycle…just dont need to get greedy and go all in.

Just about all nzx listed property stocks at at lows…SUM is not.

lol yes those care givers need another big pay rise for the work they do and the nurses im all for it. these RV stocks should be a community service an not for profit org's. ill start tthe petition will you sign it ?

[Perky]

….we don’t want the govt involved running a RV….just give the rv a fair and realistic contribution for their essential care costs and let the market make them more efficient. The charity not for profit model is dead in my opinion…they have all been closing shop

Maybe getting a more standardised RV building model driven by AI …something like zurutech are working on to strip out the high building costs and inefficiencies we have in nz will be a start. Same for public hospital…more standardisation and repeatable size shapes to keep the costs down rather than nz way where everything bespoke. The Robots can put ‘em together like a Lego building.

W69 could talk to the friendly chatbot on the OCA help desk to check on achieved Ora sales this week rather than dealing with obstinate humans

Imagine that Bull….

[Habits]

No FBU or CVT bounce for OCA, even RYM well off its lows, whats going on

[Perky]

Nothings going on…pretty much traded tightly all week between 0.61 and 0.57…spent most it’s time around 0.59.
Even bulls frustrated as he worked out he could get a better return leaving his money in the bank this week than trading OCA…but he tried really hard to spook the horses.

Order your popcorn and come back next week…lots going on
Monday. SUM report
Wedneday : OCR review
Thursdaty : Index rebalance
Friday: cold beersies today

I have no idea what OCA share price will do…but you probably won’t get rich or poor

[ValueNZ]

I see the ghost of SailorBoy still dominates this thread....
What was up, was down & visa versa, everything has an equal and opposite reaction apparently, bla bla bla.
We heard it to infinitum.

The key thing I took away from all the Buffett wannabes is that choose a bluechip stock & over time you really can't go wrong, well on average.

My question always has been & my answer is.
Does OCA qualify for such confidence as Buffett has put in some of the biggest brand names in the world? Short answer. No.

That doesn't mean I'm not positive toward OCA, I am, but it's not without risk as some on here have conveyed in the past.
Dude, Buffett's investing style had to change significantly because of the enormous sums of capital he's now working with.

I reckon OCA is the sort of investment Buffett would have owned in the partnership days.

[ValueNZ]

Yes, I think most people who just bought a small basket of Blue Chips, and dollar cost averaged into them over their investing life would come out the other end with more than satisfactory returns.

True opportunities where the market has just completely mispriced a stock for no rational reason at all are incredibly rare these days. That does not mean it never ever happens, bit it is rare.

Not like in Buffett's partnership days in the 50's and 60's where he said finding undervalued stocks was like "shooting fish in a barrel".

It is my opinion that the small retail investor will do better long term by just focussing on good companies that can be understood and are likely to be worth more in the future. Don't try to get fixated on being smarter than everyone else by thinking you can find 'undervalued' stocks (and then calling anyone with a different view an idiot).

If you like the OCA business, understand it well and have reason to believe it will be worth more in the future then go hard. I wish you well. But don't make the mistake of thinking everyone else is stupid and you are currently getting it for half off, because you probably aren't.
Investing isn't about being smarter than everyone else. It's about having the ability to control your emotions, and act rationally. Someone with 130 IQ can easily beat someone with 160.

[ValueNZ]

Investing isn't about being smarter than everyone else. It's about having the ability to control your emotions, and act rationally. Someone with 130 IQ can easily beat someone with 160.
Point in case, the people running Long Term Capital Management.

[Daytr]

Dude, Buffett's investing style had to change significantly because of the enormous sums of capital he's now working with.

I reckon OCA is the sort of investment Buffett would have owned in the partnership days.

Yes of course you would think that.
And perhaps you are right, as you have said Buffett ignores the macro.
OCA or the RV sector is a prime example why you shouldn't ignore the macro. It was obvious what was going to happen to the property market once interest rates were on the rise.
Hey, but close your eyes and hope. 😅

[mistaTea]

Yes of course you would think that.
And perhaps you are right, as you have said Buffett ignores the macro.
OCA or the RV sector is a prime example why you shouldn't ignore the macro. It was obvious what was going to happen to the property market once interest rates were on the rise.
Hey, but close your eyes and hope. 😅

Buffett looks at the macro alright.

When Covid was about to hit he couldn’t sell out of his airline stocks fast enough.

[Daytr]

Buffett looks at the macro alright.

When Covid was about to hit he couldn’t sell out of his airline stocks fast enough.

My comment was tongue in cheek.
It's what ValueNZ & SailorBoy 'say' about Buffett.
Because dude you know if you critique either of them, oh man you are critiquing the Sage himself.

[mistaTea]

My comment was tongue in cheek.
It's what ValueNZ & SailorBoy 'say' about Buffett.
Because dude you know if you critique either of them, oh man you are critiquing the Sage himself.

Oh yes, I knew you were taking the Mickey.

[Balance]

A refresher on what Warren Buffett's philosophy & rules of investing :

https://www.investopedia.com/financial-edge/0210/rules-that-warren-buffett-lives-by.aspx

Rule 1: Never Lose Money

This might seem like a no-brainer because what investor sets out with the intention of losing their hard-earned cash? But, in fact, events can transpire that can cause an investor to forget this rule. Buffett thereby swears by Rule 2.
Rule 2: Never Forget Rule No. 1

Buffett personally lost about $25 billion in the financial crisis of 2008 and his company, Berkshire Hathaway, lost its revered AAA rating.12 So how can he tell us to never lose money?

He's referring to the mindset of a sensible investor: Don't be frivolous. Don't gamble. Don't go into an investment with a cavalier attitude that it's OK to lose. Be informed. Do your homework.

Etc

Etc

[ValueNZ]

Yes of course you would think that.
And perhaps you are right, as you have said Buffett ignores the macro.
OCA or the RV sector is a prime example why you shouldn't ignore the macro. It was obvious what was going to happen to the property market once interest rates were on the rise.
Hey, but close your eyes and hope. 
I don't just think it, I know it for certain. He had to change, you can't search all through all the small cap stocks looking for mispriced securities when you're dealing with hundreds of billions of dollars.

No doubt you had shorted OCA then, with it being so damn obvious with the macro and all.

[ValueNZ]

My comment was tongue in cheek.
It's what ValueNZ & SailorBoy 'say' about Buffett.
Because dude you know if you critique either of them, oh man you are critiquing the Sage himself.
Buffett has repeatedly said that he ignores the macro. Along with other very wealthy investors you should listen to.

[Daytr]

I don't just think it, I know it for certain. He had to change, you can't search all through all the small cap stocks looking for mispriced securities when you're dealing with hundreds of billions of dollars.

No doubt you had shorted OCA then, with it being so damn obvious with the macro and all.

My comment was in relation to OCA being a stock of the calibre Buffet would have invested in, not what you are referring to.

You obviously don't know much about shorting.
Most NZ stocks don't qualify for the platforms for trading as they are too small and have poor liquidity.

[ValueNZ]

My comment was in relation to OCA being a stock of the calibre Buffet would have invested in, not what you are referring to.

You obviously don't know much about shorting.
Most NZ stocks don't qualify for the platforms for trading as they are too small and have poor liquidity.
I was referring to the fact that Buffett had to change his investing style, the way you invest a million dollars is much different to hundreds of billions.

And yes, I believe that OCA shares qualities that Buffett in the partnership days looked for.

If you were as confident as you claim you were, it being obvious and all, you would have easily found a way to borrow shares of OCA.

[Daytr]

I was referring to the fact that Buffett had to change his investing style, the way you invest a million dollars is much different to hundreds of billions.

And yes, I believe that OCA shares qualities that Buffett in the partnership days looked for.

If you were as confident as you claim you were, it being obvious and all, you would have easily found a way to borrow shares of OCA.

Would I have.
Thanks for telling me what I would or should do SailorCadet.
As I hardly invest or trade in NZ at all, no I wouldn't.

And yes, as I said at the start, I know you think that re OCA. Slow learner this one.

[Daytr]

Buffett has repeatedly said that he ignores the macro. Along with other very wealthy investors you should listen to.

Until he doesn't.

[aquaman]

Interesting article this morning. If link dosent work copy and paste

https://www.thepost.co.nz/business/350187075/luxury-retirement-villages-are-rise-there-demand?cx_testId=3&cx_testVariant=cx_1&cx_artPos=2&utm_source=localised_module#cxrecs_s

Comment from Brent "To date, 20 apartments are in the process of being purchased, and four people have bought into the private care residences. He is “pleasantly surprised” with the uptake, which includes the pre-sale of the penthouse."

[Greekwatchdog]

Interesting article this morning. If link dosent work copy and paste

https://www.thepost.co.nz/business/350187075/luxury-retirement-villages-are-rise-there-demand?cx_testId=3&cx_testVariant=cx_1&cx_artPos=2&utm_source=localised_module#cxrecs_s

Comment from Brent "To date, 20 apartments are in the process of being purchased, and four people have bought into the private care residences. He is “pleasantly surprised” with the uptake, which includes the pre-sale of the penthouse."

Thanks for Posting Aquaman.

Be nice if he would share that sort of info to the shareholders via a Market Announcement re Investor update.

[winner69]

Drinks with an investment guy last night and we chatted about OCA and that MSCI index thing.

Apparently they were ‘selected’ for inclusion in February 2020. Share price about $1.20 raised market cap and Macquarie sell increased liquidity. Then Covid came along and share price collapsed but had recovered to be in the 70’s when announced and actually included in Late May ……and share price continued it meteoric rise.

He reckons 25m/30m shares involved … and he doesn’t know of this character Balance lol

We did agree the way indices work is rather stupid. Like in OCA case include it when it’s a rising star and kick it out when a dismal failure …….almost akin to buying high and selling low …think about it

[winner69]

Thanks for Posting Aquaman.

Be nice if he would share that sort of info to the shareholders via a Market Announcement re Investor update.

Not really anything new.

Maverick had said much the same after his discussions with OCA people and even pointed out that 5 sales had been accounted for and included in the F23 (September) result

Seems when Brent talks to the press he’s never very clear about whether he’s talking ore-sales, offers, completed sales etc etc …..never mind just their strategy to keep mere mortals like us in the dark.

[winner69]

Interesting article this morning. If link dosent work copy and paste

https://www.thepost.co.nz/business/350187075/luxury-retirement-villages-are-rise-there-demand?cx_testId=3&cx_testVariant=cx_1&cx_artPos=2&utm_source=localised_module#cxrecs_s

Comment from Brent "To date, 20 apartments are in the process of being purchased, and four people have bought into the private care residences. He is “pleasantly surprised” with the uptake, which includes the pre-sale of the penthouse."

Ha ha …..seems they’ve listened to me and changed the Supplied photo of Brent

The smug looking I’m here to screw you Brent is now a more serious looking sophisticated Brent complete with spectacles

[jfbl5690]

Hi Maverick,

Really enjoy your contributions to the OCA forum, have learnt heaps from them. Just wondered how you get 130m for ORA new sales and resales for H1 2024? In the OCA cashflow statement I see 105m for Receipts from new occupation right agreements? Where does the 25m difference come from?



Ok lets try this...




2024




2025




2026


















52.0
83.1
72%
135.1

78.9
88.3

167.2

79.4
59.3

138.8


77.6
83.3
22%
160.9

90.5
114.6

205.1

107.1
134.9

242.0


129.6
166.3
66%
295.9

169.4
202.9

372.3

186.5
194.3

380.8


38.6
51
12%
89.6

45
45

90

50
50

100


















91.0
115.3

206.3

124.4
157.9

282.3

136.5
144.3

280.8


104.7
105.2

209.9

105.1
109.9

214.9

109.4
113.6

223.0


-128.6
-128.7

-257.3

-130.8
-136.1

-266.9

-136.3
-141.7

-278.0


-6.8
0.0

-6.8

-12.5
-14.0

-26.5

-12.5
-21.4

-33.9


-115.5
-80

-195.5

-80
-80

-160

-80
-80

-160


-55
12

-43

6
38

44

17
15

32



That`s the best I can Bull....gonna have to get out your magnifying glass.

So there`s the cash flow I expect ...

Our basic difference is I think...
I see sales as profit AND cashflow.
You see sales as just profit and no cashflow. ( like a standard property developer not using ORA`s)
I`m not sure why you dont see that "cash float " the resident just paid up front is now sitting in OCAs accounts to use as they please. ( either building more units elsewhere or paying debt.) It never has to be paid back while new residents are lining up to take it over on resale.
The ORA set up is the key difference of why RVs will keep making money in a stagnant property market and developers dont.


I have to leave for a week or so shortly so I wont have time to respond further for now.

[winner69]

Up the Wahs ….this is our year …….and for Oceania faithful this is our year

Headline in Stuff possibly written by a OCA fan who substituted Oceania with Warriors and doubling share price with NRL


Work still to do for Warriors before new NRL season, but no obvious concerns

The stars are aligned .."season starts in earnest next week

[Maverick]

Ha ha …..seems they’ve listened to me and changed the Supplied photo of Brent

The smug looking I’m here to screw you Brent is now a more serious looking sophisticated Brent complete with spectacles

Well it looks like your email last week for an update arrived today too in the Post article …great job Winner.

This “infomercial “ seems classy way of “throwing us the bone” we asked for of how things are going. I’m going to try and clarify with them if the 20 sales in progress included with the sold units of the folk who moved in late last year or are on top of the sold units???
The article is a bit ambiguous.

Either way , there is enough commentary there to know the vital metric of new sales at the Helier are going to plan if not slightly better.

So Brent and Kathryn, if you are reading this……thank you for the update, very much appreciated.

[Blue Skies]

Time to back the truck up ? :D

[Maverick]

Time to back the truck up ? :D
Everyone of course has to invest to their own style but look at it this way...

If OCA make the usual 8c /share of the last 5 years and you can now buy that share for 60c ....that`s a 13% P/A.

If OCA manage to sell that $363m of available new stock and over the next 2 years which should make a progressive profit up to $14c/share 2026...thats 23% P/A

In my opinion, if that isn`t enough reward for risk then one should not be in the market.

[winner69]

In the media this morning ….Brent being busy and talking to media a lot more eh

Oceania Healthcare is strengthening its foothold in Auckland’s eastern suburb of St Heliers after securing almost a hectare of prime residential properties in recent months next to its 1.3ha retirement development, The Helier.

Oceania chief executive Brent Pattison said the initial five properties and existing homes, would eventually feature additional villas and also act as a line-of-sight buffer to the newly opened development.

[winner69]

It was in this article ..may be paywalled

Penthouse sold Brent said


https://businessdesk.co.nz/article/property/oceania-snaps-up-st-heliers-properties-as-it-expands-5-star-offering

[bull....]

did anyone ever consider that OCA are paying for these newspaper stories because sales are slow. its called marketing

[winner69]

All this stuff in the media saying how great Oceania blah blah blah all of a sudden probably a precursor to a capital raise in near future

[ValueNZ]

did anyone ever consider that OCA are paying for these newspaper stories because sales are slow. its called marketing

All this stuff in the media saying how great Oceania blah blah blah all of a sudden probably a precursor to a capital raise in near future
Bad news is bad news and good news is bad news?

And would someone please send me the full business desk article in PM? Thanks

[Daytr]

All this stuff in the media saying how great Oceania blah blah blah all of a sudden probably a precursor to a capital raise in near future

Well them stating 20 units are in negotiations or what ever thet are is a very odd thing to say imo.
Is that a statement making up for a lack of sales?

[bull....]

sacked things must be bad ?

[Greekwatchdog]

CEO passing the batton

Oceania Healthcare Limited (NZX, ASX, OCA) advises that Brent Pattison, Chief Executive Officer, has signaled he plans to step down from his role later this year after repositioning Oceania and successfully implementing a 5-year growth strategy for the business.
While Brent plans to stay with Oceania for several months, the Board wish to record their thanks to Brent for his passionate leadership, through what has undoubtedly been a challenging macro environment for New Zealand and the sector over the past few years.
Liz Coutts, Chair says, “It has been an absolute pleasure having Brent at the helm and he has demonstrated resilience and tenacity in the execution of the strategy, including leading the sector to deliver new forms of innovation. Brent has always had the residents at the heart of everything he does”.
“Brent has set the business up well to benefit from the positive momentum in the market and for his successor to build upon this success and Oceania’s continued growth”.
“We are delighted Brent will continue with us until we announce his successor. Oceania will be conducting an extensive search and will update shareholders as soon as an appointment is made”.
Brent says, “It has been a privilege to lead Oceania. Our team of 2,700 are the most dedicated, driven, and enthusiastic individuals and every day they work tirelessly to deliver to our promise of ‘believe in better’. I have appreciated the board’s support during my leadership.”
Brent has a six-month notice period, which he plans to serve in full if required, to facilitate an orderly handover to his successor.
This announcement has been authorised for release by Oceania’s board of directors.

[winner69]

Great news

[850man]

Great news
and Liz next?

[Lego_Man]

Great news

Yes, but hopefully not an indication of major skeletons in the closet.

[winner69]

Yes, but hopefully not an indication of major skeletons in the closet.

He’s moved a few along during his tenure …….good experienced people too

[Habits]

In the media this morning ….Brent being busy and talking to media a lot more eh

Oceania Healthcare is strengthening its foothold in Auckland’s eastern suburb of St Heliers after securing almost a hectare of prime residential properties in recent months next to its 1.3ha retirement development, The Helier.

Oceania chief executive Brent Pattison said the initial five properties and existing homes, would eventually feature additional villas and also act as a line-of-sight buffer to the newly opened development.

The land value must be 10000sqm x $4000, $40 million. They still got their cajones

[thegreatestben]

https://homes.co.nz/address/auckland/st-heliers/43-glover-road/XQgPJ - $4.2m - $3271.03/sqm
https://homes.co.nz/address/auckland/st-heliers/39-glover-road/ppKY - $4.2m - $5121.95/sqm

https://i.ibb.co/bLS4qJH/Screenshot-2024-02-26-122825.png (https://ibb.co/0Zg08tB)

[Daytr]

https://homes.co.nz/address/auckland/st-heliers/43-glover-road/XQgPJ - $4.2m - $3271.03/sqm
https://homes.co.nz/address/auckland/st-heliers/39-glover-road/ppKY - $4.2m - $5121.95/sqm

https://i.ibb.co/bLS4qJH/Screenshot-2024-02-26-122825.png (https://ibb.co/0Zg08tB)

They are just ridiculous prices to pay for just development sites. Perhaps they should be looking outside the most expensive Eastern Suburbs.

[thegreatestben]

Potentially renting them out? It's a lot of money but I guess it'll never be cheaper to guarantee the view.

[ronaldson]

Great news

Hmmm... shareprice still falling despite the announced intention to depart.

What could turn this around?

[Greekwatchdog]

Hmmm... shareprice still falling despite the announced intention to depart.

What could turn this around?

A positive announcement on sales etc plan and simple

[winner69]

Hmmm... shareprice still falling despite the announced intention to depart.

What could turn this around?

Was marked Price Sensitive :):eek2::)

[nztx]

A positive announcement on sales etc plan and simple


Warren Buffet suddenly taking a liking to alleged undervalued Kiwi outfits in the Sector where deep value
is rumoured to be buried under the trees outside the window ? ;)

[allfromacell]

Great news

Winner, I know you don't like how OCA treats its shareholders, but things were not much different under Earl. What makes you consider this great news?

[Blue Skies]

Hmmm... shareprice still falling despite the announced intention to depart.

What could turn this around?



Market doesn't like uncertainty, lets hope they find & announce a really decent successor soon or we could be treading water for 6 months.

[winner69]

Winner, I know you don't like how OCA treats its shareholders, but things were not much different under Earl. What makes you consider this great news?

Hope was that when Earl left we’d get a better CEO but appointing an accountant / finance guy in Brent was a turn off for me. Then when Stockton left years of good work behind to join Metlife was probably a sign he didn’t get on with Brent another bad sign for.

It’s been disappointing times with Brent in charge and I reckon he’s been the problem …..I’m allowed to say that

[Leemsip]

56c now, VWAP at 57cish. getting hammered. Might get ugly into the close of the month as well, with the drop from the index.

[alokdhir]

56c now, VWAP at 57cish. getting hammered. Might get ugly into the close of the month as well, with the drop from the index.

Maybe time to think worst is over ...recovery time hopefully

[Jaa]

Hope was that when Earl left we’d get a better CEO but appointing an accountant / finance guy in Brent was a turn off for me. Then when Stockton left years of good work behind to join Metlife was probably a sign he didn’t get on with Brent another bad sign for.

It’s been disappointing times with Brent in charge and I reckon he’s been the problem …..I’m allowed to say that

Long been the go-to CEO type in NZ and those accountants/finance guys have long disappointed. I would add in lawyers too.

Companies led by engineering and product/industry specialists my preference.

[Balance]

Drinks with an investment guy last night and we chatted about OCA and that MSCI index thing.

Apparently they were ‘selected’ for inclusion in February 2020. Share price about $1.20 raised market cap and Macquarie sell increased liquidity. Then Covid came along and share price collapsed but had recovered to be in the 70’s when announced and actually included in Late May ……and share price continued it meteoric rise.

He reckons 25m/30m shares involved … and he doesn’t know of this character Balance lol

We did agree the way indices work is rather stupid. Like in OCA case include it when it’s a rising star and kick it out when a dismal failure …….almost akin to buying high and selling low …think about it

Not easy to calculate exactly how many shares involved when any stock is exited from the index as funds tracking the index shrink or grow (mostly grow in the global markets).

Also, there's no reliable data on the funds using the index as their benchmark, as they could be underweight or overweight. That impacts on the volume of stock they hold.

And NZX stocks are so pathetically small in general that their index weightings often just rounding differences to an index performance!

Suspect most of the local fund managers have been bailing out even before the index announcement while retail investors have been buying with no heed of the indexing impact.

[mike2020]

Exactly 40% of nta. Even RYM at 67.5%

Glad I worked today. I would have thought a bounce was in order after SUM making a positive announcement.

[bottomfeeder]

In light of Brett leaving, the company needs to make an announcement quick on any issues with the company and its finances. At the the very least a confirmation of the current position. Particularly important with the loss of value in the market cap in recent weeks. This is just plain unheard of, SP at 40% of NTA. There is just too much speculation as to Brett being pushed.

[bull....]

still dont know why so many rely on NTA. In the modern world its pretty much dumb now to rely on this figure
why
cause directors employ there own valuations or employ someone to value it nicely. do your research

[Habits]

Valuations should be by accredited and independent valuers then scrutinised by banks, auditors and oversight by NZX. OCA is part of an industry with valuation norms. What you are suggesting is wild-west where anything goes.

A few of our fellow investors are extremely happy the lower the sp goes, they say thats where they make their millions.

[bull....]

Valuations should be by accredited and independent valuers then scrutinised by banks, auditors and oversight by NZX. OCA is part of an industry with valuation norms. What you are suggesting is wild-west where anything goes.

A few of our fellow investors are extremely happy the lower the sp goes, they say thats where they make their millions.

im not suggesting wild west at all ( unlike the finance company days where all reputable people gave them a grade ratings lol ) im suggesting you need to take NTA with a grain of salt because of my statement above.
debt magnifies NTA on the way up , and crushes it on the way down esp if debt stays the same

liquidation value is a better metric than nta i reckon

[Balance]

im not suggesting wild west at all ( unlike the finance company days where all reputable people gave them a grade ratings lol ) im suggesting you need to take NTA with a grain of salt because of my statement above.
debt magnifies NTA on the way up , and crushes it on the way down esp if debt stays the same

liquidation value is a better metric than nta i reckon

Liquidation value only applies when a company is no longer a going concern.

NTA can be a fair assessment of value as proper valuations of RVs are actually done by actuarial experts who take into consideration a multiple of factors (including age of occupants).

However the valuations need to transparent and the market has confidence in the numbers - something that OCA has not handled well.

[ValueNZ]

Liquidation value only applies when a company is no longer a going concern.

NTA can be a fair assessment of value as proper valuations of RVs are actually done by actuarial experts who take into consideration a multiple of factors (including age of occupants).

However the valuations need to transparent and the market has confidence in the numbers - something that OCA has not handled well.
No... NTA is not a proper way of valuing any business. It is the cash flows of the business that determine the value, discounted to NPV.

[Ggcc]

No... NTA is not a proper way of valuing any business. It is the cash flows of the business that determine the value, discounted to NPV.
There are many different ways to value a business. Everyone has their own way, but companies generally have their own. IE NTA, Enterprise value, NAV those are 3 off the top of my head

[alokdhir]

No... NTA is not a proper way of valuing any business. It is the cash flows of the business that determine the value, discounted to NPV.

So as per u ...a rental landlord business will get very poor valuations ?? ...its a asset rich poor cashflow business

[winner69]

No... NTA is not a proper way of valuing any business. It is the cash flows of the business that determine the value, discounted to NPV.

In this sector isn’t NTA basically a series of discounted cash flows anyway

[ValueNZ]

In this sector isn’t NTA basically a series of discounted cash flows anyway
What the hell...

No

[winner69]

What the hell...

No

What the hell …

[Balance]

No... NTA is not a proper way of valuing any business. It is the cash flows of the business that determine the value, discounted to NPV.

Which part of actuarial valuation do you not understand?

Geez - you really have no clue, do you? Exactly like the way you think that bonds are valued.

[ValueNZ]

So as per u ...a rental landlord business will get very poor valuations ?? ...its a asset rich poor cashflow business
How do you figure OCA is cashflow poor, how is it that they are able to spend $100M+ on developing property each year.

[Balance]

In this sector isn’t NTA basically a series of discounted cash flows anyway

Yup - just have to talk to any RV valuer who use actuarial based valuations.

[alokdhir]

How do you figure OCA is cashflow poor, how is it that they are able to spend $100M+ on developing property each year.

I was referring to your definition of valuing a business ...what made u think I was talking about OCA ....I asked that based on your way of valuing a business ...a rental landlord business will get very poor outcomes ....as it's an asset rich poor cashflow business ....so surely u need add something more to then just simple cashflow to value any business properly ....thus maybe NTA comes into picture also

[bull....]

Liquidation value only applies when a company is no longer a going concern.

NTA can be a fair assessment of value as proper valuations of RVs are actually done by actuarial experts who take into consideration a multiple of factors (including age of occupants).

However the valuations need to transparent and the market has confidence in the numbers - something that OCA has not handled well.

wrong . look it up it is a metric used by serious value investors. nta is a poor metric. actually the experts work out FV of the assets not nta

[Balance]

wrong . look it up it is a metric used by serious value investors. nta is a poor metric

Not when it is actuarial based.

Seriously, have you ever talked to a RV valuer? I have and they do not value RV units like residential property valuations.

[bull....]

Not when it is actuarial based.

Seriously, have you ever talked to a RV valuer? I have and they do not value RV units like residential property valuations.

actuarial based on a dcf is the correct way

[ValueNZ]

I was referring to your definition of valuing a business ...what made u think I was talking about OCA ....I asked that based on your way of valuing a business ...a rental landlord business will get very poor outcomes ....as it's an asset rich poor cashflow business ....so surely u need add something more to then just simple cashflow to value any business properly ....thus maybe NTA comes into picture also
Fair enough.

I do think people pay way too much for property and if you were to value their property like any other financial asset you'd find it's worth multiples less. Only way for people to make good returns in property is to leverage up and hope a punter will pay more than you did for it in some time in the future.

[alokdhir]

Fair enough.

I do think people pay way too much for property and if you were to value their property like any other financial asset you'd find it's worth multiples less. Only way for people to make good returns in property is to leverage up and hope a punter will pay more than you did for it in some time in the future.

I still think property is not a PONZI scheme u trying to imply ...as it has tremendous actual user value too over and above store of wealth in inflation proof way . Property is better store of wealth then maybe GOLD

[Bjauck]

They are just ridiculous prices to pay for just development sites. Perhaps they should be looking outside the most expensive Eastern Suburbs.
They are double sections. Those sections on that side of Glover road have decent north facing 180 degree views extending from city to Rangitito and perhaps further. So they should be able to give a good view for most of the units developed. Plus Glover Park is on the other side of the road - so no building out the outlook.

[Balance]

They are double sections. Those sections on that side of Glover road have decent north facing 180 degree views extending from city to Rangitito and perhaps further. So they should be able to give a good view for most of the units developed. Plus Glover Park is on the other side of the road - so no building out the outlook.

Huge prices being paid seemingly for the properties in a market which has gone backwards 10% to 15% :

39 Glover Rd - $4.2m vs CV $2.95m

43 Glover Rd - $4.2m vs $3.9m

Do they know what they are doing?

[Bjauck]

I still think property is not a PONZI scheme u trying to imply ...as it has tremendous actual user value too over and above store of wealth in inflation proof way . Property is better store of wealth then maybe GOLD
Residential real estate of course has value in housing the people. We have to live on land. However in NZ government regulatory, tax and monetary policy give it an advantageous appeal to investors seeking to accumulate a pension or other investment fund. So it is debatable whether providing the people somewhere to live is the main objective in NZ.

[Daytr]

Huge prices being paid seemingly for the properties in a market which has gone backwards 10% to 15% :

39 Glover Rd - $4.2m vs CV $2.95m

43 Glover Rd - $4.2m vs $3.9m

Do they know what they are doing?

That's my question exactly. It's a buyers market as well and at a time when cashflow is king for them.

Is their prime market just the wealthy who will ve able to afford these new units or should they be diversifying their portfolio more in lower priced suburbs?

[Bjauck]

Huge prices being paid seemingly for the properties in a market which has gone backwards 10% to 15% :

39 Glover Rd - $4.2m vs CV $2.95m

43 Glover Rd - $4.2m vs $3.9m

Do they know what they are doing?
I hope so. I am a shareholder! Perhaps in conjunction with their existing site, they see opportunities to unlock even greater value with the addition of the new sites.

I would be happy to be a neighbour of those two sites as I imagine they may be on OCA’s wish list.

[Bjauck]

That's my question exactly. It's a buyers market as well and at a time when cashflow is king for them.

Is their prime market just the wealthy who will ve able to afford these new units or should they be diversifying their portfolio more in lower priced suburbs?
Certainly with the Helier, that market is the wealthy. The wealthy retired and the poorer retired (who don’t own a house) are probably growing markets.

[jfbl5690]

Hi Maverick,

First time poster, have learned heaps from you in this thread. Just wondered below how you get 129.6m for the ORAs for 2024 H1? If I read the cash flow statement I see ~105m for ORA receipts. Any idea where the difference comes from?



Ok lets try this...14937




2024




2025




2026


















52.0
83.1
72%
135.1

78.9
88.3

167.2

79.4
59.3

138.8


77.6
83.3
22%
160.9

90.5
114.6

205.1

107.1
134.9

242.0


129.6
166.3
66%
295.9

169.4
202.9

372.3

186.5
194.3

380.8


38.6
51
12%
89.6

45
45

90

50
50

100


















91.0
115.3

206.3

124.4
157.9

282.3

136.5
144.3

280.8


104.7
105.2

209.9

105.1
109.9

214.9

109.4
113.6

223.0


-128.6
-128.7

-257.3

-130.8
-136.1

-266.9

-136.3
-141.7

-278.0


-6.8
0.0

-6.8

-12.5
-14.0

-26.5

-12.5
-21.4

-33.9


-115.5
-80

-195.5

-80
-80

-160

-80
-80

-160


-55
12

-43

6
38

44

17
15

32



That`s the best I can Bull....gonna have to get out your magnifying glass.

So there`s the cash flow I expect ...

Our basic difference is I think...
I see sales as profit AND cashflow.
You see sales as just profit and no cashflow. ( like a standard property developer not using ORA`s)
I`m not sure why you dont see that "cash float " the resident just paid up front is now sitting in OCAs accounts to use as they please. ( either building more units elsewhere or paying debt.) It never has to be paid back while new residents are lining up to take it over on resale.
The ORA set up is the key difference of why RVs will keep making money in a stagnant property market and developers dont.


I have to leave for a week or so shortly so I wont have time to respond further for now.

[Cupsy]

No... NTA is not a proper way of valuing any business. It is the cash flows of the business that determine the value, discounted to NPV.

Determining intrinsic value is as much about accuracy as anything else is it not?, price to assets is one of the simpler ways to look things, the probability of getting it wrong is lower than other methods imo.
Not saying cash flows should not be used, but pricing based on future cash flows is not much help if you get it wrong, and when you have to make future assumptions the probability of error is going to increase.
IMO asset value can be used as a cross check for consideration.

[ronaldson]

Certainly with the Helier, that market is the wealthy. The wealthy retired and the poorer retired (who don’t own a house) are probably growing markets.

I think the latter are indeed on a growth curve in this country.

I wonder if anyone will venture into a "Build to Rent" style development restricted to over 70s but providing some limited but reasonable supporting common amenities in a controlled and secure environment? None of the Kianga Ora type issues with unresponsive nutter tenants/neighbours as they would be exited promptly. So no ORA/DMF but a rental level reflecting a decent return on investment. May be no or very limited care facility aspect as that would not be the objective.

[Cupsy]

I still think property is not a PONZI scheme u trying to imply ...as it has tremendous actual user value too over and above store of wealth in inflation proof way . Property is better store of wealth then maybe GOLD

It seems to me that with property, ppl have many different reasons for buying it, and are willing to pay prices that may not represent investment valuations based on say income from rent. Also depending on where you are in life is a factor, ppl who are at the point in life where they are financially well off probably are happier to pay a higher price to get what they want where they want to be.
I'm not necessarily sure it has amazing user value over and above a store of wealth, surely you have the same user value from a property you rent, and in some cases renting may be the more cost effective method.
And along the store of wealth front, there are a lot of ongoing frictional costs, rates, insurance, maintenance.
Home ownership is probably more a cultural idea we have as much as anything.

[ValueNZ]

Determining intrinsic value is as much about accuracy as anything else is it not?, price to assets is one of the simpler ways to look things, the probability of getting it wrong is lower than other methods imo.
Not saying cash flows should not be used, but pricing based on future cash flows is not much help if you get it wrong, and when you have to make future assumptions the probability of error is going to increase.
IMO asset value can be used as a cross check for consideration.
Ok think of it this way.

There is a business with 10 million dollars worth of gold, and all that business does is hold that on their balance sheet. Let's say for the purposes of the example there is no way of acquiring a controlling interest, and the business will never sell the gold to distribute the cash.

Someone valuing this business on a NTA basis would say that it's worth $10m. But in 10 years, the business will still have the exact same amount of gold.

What would you pay for a 10% ownership of the business?

[Cupsy]

Ok think of it this way.

There is a business with 10 million dollars worth of gold, and all that business does is hold that on their balance sheet. Let's say for the purposes of the example there is no way of acquiring a controlling interest, and the business will never sell the gold to distribute the cash.

Someone valuing this business on a NTA basis would say that it's worth $10m. But in 10 years, the business will still have the exact same amount of gold.

What would you pay for a 10% ownership of the business?

I wasnt saying price to assets is the only way you should look at it, i'm saying where appropriate it should be taken into consideration as part of the process as the probability of making incorrect assumptions is lower.

[Daytr]

Ok think of it this way.

There is a business with 10 million dollars worth of gold, and all that business does is hold that on their balance sheet. Let's say for the purposes of the example there is no way of acquiring a controlling interest, and the business will never sell the gold to distribute the cash.

Someone valuing this business on a NTA basis would say that it's worth $10m. But in 10 years, the business will still have the exact same amount of gold.

What would you pay for a 10% ownership of the business?

I wouldn't, I would buy gold.
The example laid out is not realistic or comparable, so the basis of your thinking is flawed.

[kiora]

[QUOTE=ValueNZ;1042490]Ok think of it this way.

There is a business with 10 million dollars worth of gold, and all that business does is hold that on their balance sheet. Let's say for the purposes of the example there is no way of acquiring a controlling interest, and the business will never sell the gold to distribute the cash.

Someone valuing this business on a NTA basis would say that it's worth $10m. But in 10 years, the business will still have the exact same amount of gold.

What would you pay for a 10% ownership of the business?[/QUO


They would need to pay holding costs and then its a depreciating asset !

[ValueNZ]

I wouldn't, I would buy gold.
The example laid out is not realistic or comparable, so the basis of your thinking is flawed.
I wouldn't pay a dollar for that theoretical gold holding business. It is completely valueless, the owner of that 10% stake receives nothing at all from the business in the ten years and will never see the gold liquidated.

I laid out that example in a way that isn't necessarily realistic, but it serves a purpose. Much like the gold company, Oceania will not liquidate it's assets, so therefore it makes no sense to value OCA based on it's net assets. The difference is that OCA owns productive assets, unlike the gold company. The value of OCA must be therefore be derived from the cashflows from the productive assets and not what you might get if you liquidated the business.

[ValueNZ]

They would need to pay holding costs and then its a depreciating asset !
Of course true but it's not really relevant.

[ValueNZ]

deleted.......

[bottomfeeder]

Any company that holds 10 million dollars of gold would be holding it for:

A. Expectations of gold going up in value.

B. Expectations of currency default or devaluation. Or perhaps total collapse.

C. Temporary safe haven

No one would hold for ten years thinking it would be worth the same.

So dependant on whether you agree with their philosophy, you may become a 10% shareholder.

But this is not comparable to OCA because the properties are also a business and can be structured to make a profit if you know what you are doing. Plus inflation increases your wealth at the same time.

No more unrealistic scenarios on the OCA thread, we are having a hard time as it is.

I wrote to Liz Coutts and asked her to make an announcement on the financial situation of the company, and whether a CR is being considered, based on the SP being halved over the past year and a half or so, plus the CEO being pushed or moving on. Also confirming no change to ecpected profitabiliy. No surprises are needed at this time of panic by some silly retail investors.

[Daytr]

I wouldn't pay a dollar for that theoretical gold holding business. It is completely valueless, the owner of that 10% stake receives nothing at all from the business in the ten years and will never see the gold liquidated.

I laid out that example in a way that isn't necessarily realistic, but it serves a purpose. Much like the gold company, Oceania will not liquidate it's assets, so therefore it makes no sense to value OCA based on it's net assets. The difference is that OCA owns productive assets, unlike the gold company. The value of OCA must be therefore be derived from the cashflows from the productive assets and not what you might get if you liquidated the business.

No it serves no purpose.

[ValueNZ]

No it serves no purpose.
Sorry, I shouldn't expect much in terms of intelligent debate with someone who claims to day-trade international markets from his phone.

[Maverick]

Great job Bottom feeder.
So you , Winner, myself and one other have sent them emails in the last week. Probably all asking similar things so not too time consuming to answer.

I just don’t get all this talk resurfacing about a cap raise though. Where is this coming from? Brent has told us they are at peak debt and they have $364m of stuff ready to sell. We know Helier have some residents moved in before Christmas and “to date” 20 in the process. Plus sales have “ pleasantly surprised.”

Chrsitchurch was cranking late November too with a third sold then . That’s a record sell rate for OCA.
Simply, they have loads of stuff to sell and selling it is.

Those Helier sites were bought and paid for HY1.
We also know they are only working on about 80% of unit volumn from the last years.(Therefore Less capex)

So why has the cap raise thing popped up again. This isn’t directed at you Bottom Feeder, I think it’s great you added it to your list, why not. But I am keen to know though if anyone actually has any basis for this perennial chestnut because I’m not aware of anything being said nor see a cashflow problem in my workings.

On another thing, it’s good to see the selling volume of shares slow down. Also the WHS also being excluded Thursday is bouncing up again after going through the same heavy selling process. It might be too early to call it but maybe this is as bad as it gets before we hopefully quickly retrace our losses starting Friday.

[Habits]

So as per u ...a rental landlord business will get very poor valuations ?? ...its a asset rich poor cashflow business

Not poor valuations if your name happens to be Cornwall Park Trust Board property business. Start with high valuations and then use a decent yield rate to get the ground rents number. If the founder JLC could see it he would kick the trustees asses, in a non PC way. Sorry off topic!

[Balance]

Any company that holds 10 million dollars of gold would be holding it for:

A. Expectations of gold going up in value.

B. Expectations of currency default or devaluation. Or perhaps total collapse.

C. Temporary safe haven

No one would hold for ten years thinking it would be worth the same.

So dependant on whether you agree with their philosophy, you may become a 10% shareholder.

But this is not comparable to OCA because the properties are also a business and can be structured to make a profit if you know what you are doing. Plus inflation increases your wealth at the same time.

No more unrealistic scenarios on the OCA thread, we are having a hard time as it is.

I wrote to Liz Coutts and asked her to make an announcement on the financial situation of the company, and whether a CR is being considered, based on the SP being halved over the past year and a half or so, plus the CEO being pushed or moving on. Also confirming no change to ecpected profitabiliy. No surprises are needed at this time of panic by some silly retail investors.

No panic from retail investors from what I can see - institutional selling and retail buying.

[allfromacell]

ANZ purchased 7.2M+ shares on market between December and February so clearly not all retail.

[Balance]

ANZ purchased 7.2M+ shares on market between December and February so clearly not all retail.

Fair enough - but this is the same ANZ which kept buying PEB? :eek2:

[Daytr]

Sorry, I shouldn't expect much in terms of intelligent debate with someone who claims to day-trade international markets from his phone.

What's there to debate?
You never own your inadequacies, we all have them.
Your example wasn't relevant at all.

No sh%t the company could be valued on the cashflows generated from its assets, but on that basis its currently over valued.
However it could also be valued on what the asset could be worth to someone else as providing a service or utility.
I.e in a liquidation its valued on the actual value of housing or care facilities not the cash it will generate. It depends on who the buyer is and what their purpose is.

[Habits]

Kerre Woodham article in herald "I'll die in my own home" tells how her mum(85) didn't want to go to an RV and was happy in her home, but changed her mind and now after one year in a village is loving it. Warning- sponsored by metlifecare not OCA

[mistaTea]

Kerre Woodham article in herald "I'll die in my own home" tells how her mum(85) didn't want to go to an RV and was happy in her home, but changed her mind and now after one year in a village is loving it. Warning- sponsored by metlifecare not OCA

LOL. That last bit means the article is not worth the paper it's written on.

[Balance]

Kerre Woodham article in herald "I'll die in my own home" tells how her mum(85) didn't want to go to an RV and was happy in her home, but changed her mind and now after one year in a village is loving it. Warning- sponsored by metlifecare not OCA

Likewise, my good friend’s 82 year old ailing father fought tooth and nail not to go to the McLaren RV in Auckland several years ago. The family members simply could not care for him at home so pulled their funds together and ‘forced’ him there.

After the third month when he had recovered, he begged them not to send him home! He had found companionship, care and purpose. Even a girlfriend!

The family put in as much money as they could and the government chipped in with the balance.

He passed away in the RV 3 years later but his last years were happy years for him.

[Blue Skies]

Just as the market is over-optimistic, the market is over-pessimistic & I'ld suggest OCA is at peak over-pessimism in the cycle at the moment esp after the resignation/firing of Brent.
Remember during early stages of Covid when the SP went all the way down to the 40's but rebounded up to around 1.30. over-pessimism - over optimism.
Looks like a gift opportunity to make some significant gains.

On another note, I hope they replace Brent with someone with a strong marketing presence.
Forget the accountants, they can always reign in the spending but in this sector with significant competition, you need a strong marketing driven person leading the way.
The company has a good story but needs to communicate it much better.
For example their expensively produced TV campaigns are tone deaf compared to SUM Imo. e.g. How the one with the resident & stuffed toy being reeled in with a fishing rod got passed I'll never know, made all their residents look senile!

[Bjauck]

LOL. That last bit means the article is not worth the paper it's written on.
Good for Kerre to use her celebrity status to maybe get her Mum a nicer unit? A bit of extra money makes the World seem sweeter?
Disc: Owned MET Shares until the Swedish takeover.

[Balance]

Day before index exit and buyers are having to pay up to get volume rather than sellers selling down to get rid of volume.

Going to be a very interesting day tomorrow!

[cyclist]

Sorry, I shouldn't expect much in terms of intelligent debate with someone who claims to day-trade international markets from his phone.

Ok, that seals it. I put valuenz on ignore about 5 posts in, as I was confident it was SR in disguise. This post (and probably many others, I haven't been reading except occasionally when they are quoted) pretty much confirms it.

[Balance]

Ok, that seals it. I put valuenz on ignore about 5 posts in, as I was confident it was SR in disguise. This post (and probably many others, I haven't been reading except occasionally when they are quoted) pretty much confirms it.

Haha - I wrote before that they were soul mates but I think you have hit the nail on the head with your observation. :D

[Daytr]

Good for Kerre to use her celebrity status to maybe get her Mum a nicer unit? A bit of extra money makes the World seem sweeter?
Disc: Owned MET Shares until the Swedish takeover.

I get the impression Kerre Woodham would sell her Grandmother if it got her a sweetener.

More seriously, my fear for OCA is that their exit of care facilities and concentration on units will impact sales. I think many book into these villages to ensure a care bed or having the security & knowledge that it's the last move of their lives.

Does anyone have info re this strategic change? Will they still have care facilities going forward even if owned or managed separately from OCA?

[Daytr]

Ok, that seals it. I put valuenz on ignore about 5 posts in, as I was confident it was SR in disguise. This post (and probably many others, I haven't been reading except occasionally when they are quoted) pretty much confirms it.

I'm not sure about that, but ValueNZ has certainly bought unto the SailorBoy's strategy which isn't necessarily a bad thing, but like any strategy or stock, you cannot be dogmatic about it and be prepared to accept the story has changed. Continually doubling down on a stock can be a very dangerous strategy.

Sometimes, something left field can kill a company that could never have been predicted. During the GFC many perfectly good companies failed for reasons out of the management's control.

At times it can make sense to pick up more when a stock is sold off and is deemed undervalued by the market & although I believe OCA is currently significantly undervalued, it's not without risk, so I wouldn't be concentrating my portfolio on a stock like OCA.
However if my portfolio was diverse, then upping my holding wouldn't be such an issue.

SailorBoy used to make some very good points, unfortunately he would be derogatory towards virtually anyone who disagreed with him. He also used to throw out some clangers out of hubris as well, the defend the indefensible & typically changing the basis of what he originally claimed.
Hey, we all do it, it's how we own it that counts.

Written from my trading phone. 🤣

[ValueNZ]

https://comcom.govt.nz/__data/assets/pdf_file/0028/344539/OIA-23.159-Retirement-village-sector-investigation-22-February-2024.pdf Pg116

[ValueNZ]

I'm not sure about that, but ValueNZ has certainly bought unto the SailorBoy's strategy which isn't necessarily a bad thing, but like any strategy or stock, you cannot be dogmatic about it and be prepared to accept the story has changed. Continually doubling down on a stock can be a very dangerous strategy.

Sometimes, something left field can kill a company that could never have been predicted. During the GFC many perfectly good companies failed for reasons out of the management's control.

At times it can make sense to pick up more when a stock is sold off and is deemed undervalued by the market & although I believe OCA is currently significantly undervalued, it's not without risk, so I wouldn't be concentrating my portfolio on a stock like OCA.
However if my portfolio was diverse, then upping my holding wouldn't be such an issue.

SailorBoy used to make some very good points, unfortunately he would be derogatory towards virtually anyone who disagreed with him. He also used to throw out some changers out of hubris as well, the defend the indefensible & typically changing the basis of what he originally claimed.
Hey, we all do it, it's how we own it that counts.

Written from my trading phone. 藍
The story hasn't changed, just market sentiment. This is a good thing trust me.

[ValueNZ]

Ok, that seals it. I put valuenz on ignore about 5 posts in, as I was confident it was SR in disguise. This post (and probably many others, I haven't been reading except occasionally when they are quoted) pretty much confirms it.
Similar investing philosophies, different people.

[Balance]

Similar investing philosophies, different people.

And exhibiting the same ignorance and arrogance.

[Daytr]

The story hasn't changed, just market sentiment. This is a good thing trust me.

Yes the story has changed substantially some time ago, due to the macro environment changing, something you ignore, but it is having a material impact on the company.

As I have said, I think OCA is undervalued, but I think your current valuation of $2.77 or whatever it was, is quite ridiculous.

It's also not a stock I would be concentrating my wealth into, although the risk is low of losing the lot anything is possible.

Why should I trust you?
Rather than asking the right questions, you make poor assumptions which draw equally poor conclusions & don't listen to some people on here offering some very valuable information or making valid points, and before you jump to another poor assumption, I am not referring to me.

You are obviously a bright young guy who has a lot of potential, but there are some stubborn character traits displayed which could be your downfall. I wish I had listened more when I was your age, but I thought I knew it all as well.

[Mrbuyit]

there sure have been some pretty frothy numbers bouncing about as to future share price, and rate of recovery. I don't see the rapid appreciation that some others are suggesting, I mean even a 5-8c gain from here is going to be territory for a bunch of traders to skim off some profits, and the confirmed uptrend (if such a thing exists) is probably the smarter entry point, but kiwis seem love a bargain.. we'll have to wait and see if this is a bargain, or if this is just an extension of the dry spell shareholders have been in for the past few years.

In saying that I have recently added about 5% more to my holding during what i am deeming share price weakness, which is probably lunch money to a few on here.. I'm certainly not putting the house on it, even if the knife is still a bit sharp it won't cut me too deep. :)

[bottomfeeder]

"Catch a falling knife, put it in your pocket and save it for a rainy day...."

Couldnt help myself, added 20k @ 56. Hope that was the bottom. Sick of squirming every day when I log into Jarden.

[allfromacell]

"Catch a falling knife, put it in your pocket and save it for a rainy day...."

Couldnt help myself, added 20k @ 56. Hope that was the bottom. Sick of squirming every day when I log into Jarden.

Got my fills at 60,61 & 56. Had a final bigger buy ready for 50 but it doesn't look like that'll happen now. Will save that cash for this upcoming capital raise I keep hearing about 😁

[ValueNZ]

I mean even a 5-8c gain from here is going to be territory for a bunch of traders to skim off some profits, and the confirmed uptrend (if such a thing exists) is probably the smarter entry point,
Paying more is most definitely not smarter.

[Balance]

[QUOTE=Mrbuyit;1042864]I mean even a 5-8c gain from here is going to be territory for a bunch of traders to skim off some profits, and the confirmed uptrend (if such a thing exists) is probably the smarter entry point, /QUOTE]
Weird way of paying more is smarter.

Paying more is most definitely not smarter.

Way smarter than buying at 70c last year.

Way way smarter.

[Greekwatchdog]

"Catch a falling knife, put it in your pocket and save it for a rainy day...."

Couldnt help myself, added 20k @ 56. Hope that was the bottom. Sick of squirming every day when I log into Jarden.


Great buying, I have bought more between $0.58 & $0.60. In the bottom draw they go. Just looking forward to May when we get Full Year....

[Bjauck]

I get the impression Kerre Woodham would sell her Grandmother if it got her a sweetener.

More seriously, my fear for OCA is that their exit of care facilities and concentration on units will impact sales. I think many book into these villages to ensure a care bed or having the security & knowledge that it's the last move of their lives.

Does anyone have info re this strategic change? Will they still have care facilities going forward even if owned or managed separately from OCA?
They have been introducing premium rooms and suites purchased by an ORA into their care facilities. The villages where new ORA units have been built often include care facilities.

However I have nothing to add with respect to whether they are now exiting care or whether there are just shifting their focus somewhat.

[Bjauck]

Great buying, I have bought more between $0.58 & $0.60. In the bottom draw they go. Just looking forward to May when we get Full Year....
I made another small switch from SUM to OCA. I hope OCA has been oversold and I won’t regret that!

[ValueNZ]

I made another small switch from SUM to OCA. I hope I won’t regret that!
Switched from something fairly cheap to something very cheap. Good job.

[thegreatestben]

I'd have liked to but I probably have enough and I'm heading to europe for 6 weeks, unsure how much that will sting so wouldn't want to deplete savings beforehand.
Also just advised we are up for a restructure/redundancy :mellow:

[Filthy]

rather expected some more index pressure today.... seems like selling has stopped

[jonu]

rather expected some more index pressure today.... seems like selling has stopped

Isn't there a fairly important closing auction tonight?

[Greekwatchdog]

Isn't there a fairly important closing auction tonight?

Yes but as a long term investor you don't take that sort of thing into consideration on a Momentum trader would. Then if you have a crystal ball you could tell us which way its going to go. No one has a clue with these things.

[Muse]

rather expected some more index pressure today.... seems like selling has stopped

worth recalling in various index inclusions/exclusions, peak & trough prices are often days before the event itself (though not exclusively). see what happens tonight.

[jonu]

Yes but as a long term investor you don't take that sort of thing into consideration on a Momentum trader would. Then if you have a crystal ball you could tell us which way its going to go. No one has a clue with these things.

I was responding to Filthy commenting on the selling appearing to stop. I imagine the brokers are working out their buys and sells, off market trades etc as we speak.

[Greekwatchdog]

I was responding to Filthy commenting on the selling appearing to stop. I imagine the brokers are working out their buys and sells, off market trades etc as we speak.

Oh sorry Jonu. Sun will still shine tomorrow regardless of what happens tonight with this indexing and management and staff at OCA will still go thru there own routines...

[bottomfeeder]

Promising SP increasing. Large number of buyers vs smallish number of sellers. Common sense prevails.

Oops spoke too soon. How did Kenny Rogers put it.
"There will be time enough for counting when the dealings done".

[777]

I made another small switch from SUM to OCA. I hope OCA has been oversold and I won’t regret that!

I did that in September 2021. So far it is a $45,000 mistake.
I hope you fair better.

[Ggcc]

I did that in September 2021. So far it is a $45,000 mistake.
I hope you fair better.
I did the same but sold out most in Feb 2022 and the rest in early 2023. That was pure luck for me.

[Curly]

34 mil plus shares sold today. Where does sp go now?

[ValueNZ]

34 mil plus shares sold today. Where does sp go now?
Down, up or sideways.

[X-men]

Stupid index....buy high sell low....

[Greekwatchdog]

Wherever the Bulls and Bears take it until we get clarification from CEO. So guess we wait until May for Full Year result.

Here is to those people that were waiting for capitulation on the sale of 30m + shares. Wrong again :t_up:

[Newman]

Wherever the Bulls and Bears take it until we get clarification from CEO. So guess we wait until May for Full Year result.

Here is to those people that were waiting for capitulation on the sale of 30m + shares. Wrong again :t_up:

34.13m shares traded today, with multi-million on the bidding side.

[bottomfeeder]

34.13m shares traded today, with multi-million on the bidding side.

Methinks there could be takeover possibilities in the market. Prepare for the dump and pump. Don't be fooled.

[Bjauck]

I did that in September 2021. So far it is a $45,000 mistake.
I hope you fair better.
I have made similar mistakes in the past, and no doubt to come god willing!

[winner69]

Methinks there could be takeover possibilities in the market. Prepare for the dump and pump. Don't be fooled.


Nearly 5% of company traded today …….you could be spot on

[clips]

777 - " you'll never walk alone "

[Maverick]

Nearly 5% of company traded today …….you could be spot on
Well Winner and Balance, your sources saying 30-35m shares needed to change hands was spot on. Well done fellas.

Now let’s next hope Muse’s idea on some intentional price suppression at each day end is actually a thing. (In preparation for the final book build)
BTW , I fully agree with your suggestion after watching the shenanigan’s of the last 3-4 weeks.

If Muse’s idea/observation holds water , supported with the 5 previous examples of in/exclusions done 2023 , we should see the SP steadily (I say rapidly) rise back to where it used to live …70-76c.

Then the actual performance of the company will drive it from there. I’m still seeing around $1 in May based on projected EPS and a PE of 10.

[ValueNZ]

Well Winner and Balance, your sources saying 30-35m shares needed to change hands was spot on. Well done fellas.

Now let’s next hope Muse’s idea on some intentional price suppression at each day end is actually a thing. (In preparation for the final book build)
BTW , I fully agree with your suggestion after watching the shenanigan’s of the last 3-4 weeks.

If Muse’s idea/observation holds water , supported with the 5 previous examples of in/exclusions done 2023 , we should see the SP steadily (I say rapidly) rise back to where it used to live …70-76c.

Then the actual performance of the company will drive it from there. I’m still seeing around $1 in May based on projected EPS and a PE of 10.
I wouldn't be too confident about anything over the short term, but I wouldn't be surprised by any means if your predictions come true. Have you picked up any more shares Mav?

[Maverick]

I wouldn't be too confident about anything over the short term, but I wouldn't be surprised by any means if your predictions come true. Have you picked up any more shares Mav?
No I haven't Value. You won’t be surprised to know I have a significant holding already. Yes , logically this is the time to be greedy, I see a 100% gain this year on the SP (not withstanding a major macro event)

But , Theres a saying….”too much of a great idea is a bad idea”.

[ValueNZ]

No I haven't Value. You won’t be surprised to know I have a significant holding already. Yes , logically this is the time to be greedy, I see a 100% gain this year on the SP (not withstanding a major macro event)

But , Theres a saying….”too much of a great idea is a bad idea”.
Fair enough. I've brought my average down to 70c in the last 2 weeks :t_up:

[Panda-NZ-]

Why has ST recommended this dunce for so long... what's the appeal except the NTA and some ST'ers may be residents of OCA soon ;)

I'm out of the NZ market entirely for now, sick of it.

[Blue Skies]

Here's an analyst who backs up what I've been saying about OCA's TV marketing campaign.

The key - is to "facilitate denial" that retirees are ageing.
And that's what SUM & others do so well with their marketing. The images they project are full of energetic sunny sharp 80 year olds acting like teenagers.

OCA's is the complete opposite, emphasising to their potential customer base in their TV campaigns, that they are frail, helpless, old & getting older.
If anyone in management at OCA reads these threads, get a new ad agency (they do make blunders sometimes ).


https://newsroom.co.nz/2024/02/28/ungrateful-baby-boomers-pose-new-challenge-to-retirement-villages/

[Baa_Baa]

Why has ST recommended this dunce for so long... what's the appeal except the NTA and some ST'ers may be residents of OCA soon ;)

I'm out of the NZ market entirely for now, sick of it.

I'm certain that the market won't miss you either. Getting out at the market lows, just shows that you never understood why or what you invested in the first place.

[Panda-NZ-]

The best you can hope for here is a sideways movement (and with so many other NZX listed enterprises).

I suppose there is an opportunity for traders if you think there will be a recovery rather than just another falling knife.

[Panda-NZ-]

There's also the opportunity of investing directly in property... would have done well compared to this business.

[ValueNZ]

There's also the opportunity of investing directly in property... would have done well compared to this business.
Do you actually know anything about Oceania as a business or do you just look at a graph and draw your conclusions.

[Panda-NZ-]

No need - the market is assessing it's value for me. 59 cents.

[ValueNZ]

No need - the market is assessing it's value for me. 59 cents.
Yeah... You're without a doubt an idiot.

You should stick with index funds.

[Panda-NZ-]

You should stick with index funds.

Leveraged index funds.. yes please.

[Panda-NZ-]

You're young.. how has investing in OCA been for you so far.

IF residential property had an ETF would you instead put money in that?

[Baa_Baa]

You're young.. how has investing in OCA been for you so far.

IF residential property had an ETF would you instead put money in that?

I think ValueNZ has called you and he's right. You're an idiot. I haven't seen a single post, ever, from you, that would suggest you are worthy of any investing consideration whatsoever. Back on ignore.

[Panda-NZ-]

I think ValueNZ has called you and he's right. You're an idiot. I haven't seen a single post, ever, from you, that would suggest you are worthy of any investing consideration whatsoever. Back on ignore.

Shame I couldn't find you on the 2023 Share trader competition.. must be some data entry mistake.

I was number 9 at one point and would have sold at the right time.

[limmy]

Fair enough. I've brought my average down to 70c in the last 2 weeks :t_up:
My average has gone from $1.05 to $0.75. I'm not sure if I should continue to average down any further ?
I guess I'll be happy to recover my costs, plus a small profit should there be an offer of a takeover. (Like my previous gain with MET in 2020)

[Panda-NZ-]

Costs outstripping house price growth (alongside regulation) is a risk across the sector and OCA is particularly exposed to both.

[Curly]

Costs outstripping house price growth (alongside regulation) is a risk across the sector and OCA is particularly exposed to both.
Yes, I guess market is spooked as currently debt is not well covered by operating cash flow. Against that earnings are anticipated to grow approximately 22% pa. Time will tell. Might get some movement in sp approaching May results.
That’s not far away. If I had spare cash I would be topping up.

[ronaldson]

[QUOTE=ronaldson;1041950]I thought the MET half year reporting to 31 December was quite a positive update in the current economic climate.

Since then the main facility at Orion Point in Hobsonville, Auckland, has opened and I intend to schedule a visit in the near future. I made an early stage visit some months ago and it is a lovely location and quality offering, albeit pricey.



Apologies for being off topic with MET but I did visit Orion Point again, and it is headlined in a NZ Herald property liftout today as " Retire to Luxury" with another Open Day on Saturday. Two bedroom villas are from $1.455m and one bedroom apartments ( there are also two and three bedroom ) start at $0.625m. The village is complete including the just opened main amenity building, and the attractive pavilion, except that there is room for more Apartment buildings (14 in each) on the site perimeter where construction is yet to commence.

It is quality, and in a suitable location in Hobsonville, but my overarching impression was that sales to date seem to be underwhelming. The very best of the villas adjacent to the coastal walkway are occupied but the rest seem to be vacant despite completion a while ago, and very little indication at all that many apartments are sold. Clearly thou MET see a future in being upmarket at the premium end here.

Unlike RYM MetLifeCare have a 30% DMF and I expect sales are a struggle in the current environment despite the offering.

[ValueNZ]

You're young.. how has investing in OCA been for you so far.
Better than I could have asked for. Market has gifted me shares at a very steep discount to intrinsic value.


IF residential property had an ETF would you instead put money in that?
I would not, at least not without some major discount.

[ValueNZ]

My average has gone from $1.05 to $0.75. I'm not sure if I should continue to average down any further ?
I guess I'll be happy to recover my costs, plus a small profit should there be an offer of a takeover. (Like my previous gain with MET in 2020)
Good stuff. Average down further, or don't, I can't answer that for you.

A takeover would suck... But I'd still do well out of it. Just likely not as well as holding the shares.

[Maverick]

[QUOTE=ronaldson;1041950]I thought the MET half year reporting to 31 December was quite a positive update in the current economic climate.

Since then the main facility at Orion Point in Hobsonville, Auckland, has opened and I intend to schedule a visit in the near future. I made an early stage visit some months ago and it is a lovely location and quality offering, albeit pricey.



Apologies for being off topic with MET but I did visit Orion Point again, and it is headlined in a NZ Herald property liftout today as " Retire to Luxury" with another Open Day on Saturday. Two bedroom villas are from $1.455m and one bedroom apartments ( there are also two and three bedroom ) start at $0.625m. The village is complete including the just opened main amenity building, and the attractive pavilion, except that there is room for more Apartment buildings (14 in each) on the site perimeter where construction is yet to commence.

It is quality, and in a suitable location in Hobsonville, but my overarching impression was that sales to date seem to be underwhelming. The very best of the villas adjacent to the coastal walkway are occupied but the rest seem to be vacant despite completion a while ago, and very little indication at all that many apartments are sold. Clearly thou MET see a future in being upmarket at the premium end here.

Unlike RYM MetLifeCare have a 30% DMF and I expect sales are a struggle in the current environment despite the offering.
Thanks for taking the time to visit and sharing that Ronaldson.
That area is spoilt for choice with new RV offerings. SUM and OCA just around the corner.
I visited that site a few months ago and had a good yak to the foreman guy. He was frothy about how well things were going ( Resident wise) The villas were going well and plenty of vibe going on.

They we’re still working on the apartments (scaffolding etc still up) . So I suspect it’s just the apartments that would appear empty which would be as expected but the villas should be well occupied. Is this what you observed Ron?

OCa expect to sell a couple of apartments or care suites per site each month and MET will be no different.

It is a super classy villlage.

Another thing . You quite liked the MET result last week. Totally agree with you.
There we’re several key highlights in there ;
-ORA sales up 12%.
-Care revenue up a heap (the Dhb increase last year.)
-A comment from CBRE buried in the fine print that Rv sales are doing much better than the lacklustre NZ residential sales numbers.

These are the essential drivers for OCAs profit jump this year. I still can’t see any reason to downgrade my high expectations of this year.

[850man]

A massive number changed hands on close yesterday and this morning there are 5.5M shares in the buy queue within 5c of the closing price and only 116K shares within 5c of close price on the sell side. Whether all those are still there at 10:00am is still to be determined but it does suggest there is a good amount of buy interest in OCA

[winner69]

A massive number changed hands on close yesterday and this morning there are 5.5M shares in the buy queue within 5c of the closing price and only 116K shares within 5c of close price on the sell side. Whether all those are still there at 10:00am is still to be determined but it does suggest there is a good amount of buy interest in OCA

Bottomfeeder said watch out for corporate activity ….takeover?

[mistaTea]

Deprival-superreaction tendency [loss aversion] is also a huge contributor to ruin from the compulsion to gamble. First, it causes the gambler to have a passion to get even once he has suffered a loss, and the passion grows with the loss.
—Charlie Munger

[ValueNZ]

At this time, if anyone wants to buy shares on market open they have to pay 64c.

Too early to tell but you might have been right Mav!

[Balance]

Well Winner and Balance, your sources saying 30-35m shares needed to change hands was spot on. Well done fellas.



34m shares traded yesterday so pretty much bang on with the calculation of the number of shares to be exited indeed.

Same broker contact made the point to me yesterday that they estimated that of the 21m shares traded since the MSCI index announcement, most of the stock were either shorts or institutional sell down.

Obviously, their selldown were done in anticipation of a much lower price yesterday to cover shorts or portfolio reset.

And they have done well -sp was 70c when MSCI announcement was made - so a nice 15.7% gain and progressively lower gains for those who sold at 70c etc etc and have reset or covered at 59c yesterday.

Where does the sp go from here?

His view is that the sp will go back to 65c and then, the traders who got set at 59c will take their profit. Then, industry & company specific developments and fundamentals will take over to determine the next price level until OCA reports its results.

Happy trading, folks!

[winner69]

Not much action on the Oceania front today

Hardly anybody buying or selling ..if this keeps up share price might drift back to low 50s

[Greekwatchdog]

Not much action on the Oceania front today

Hardly anybody buying or selling ..if this keeps up share price might drift back to low 50s

Seems the sector as out of favour today and trading quiet. We will just have to wait till May and Full Year unless they give us a unprecedented Investor update

[Balance]

Not much action on the Oceania front today

Hardly anybody buying or selling ..if this keeps up share price might drift back to low 50s

Triggering the anticipated takeover offer of $1.00? :p

Can imagine that the directors will get lynched if they reject an offer like that - almost 100% premium if sp drops to say, 51 cents! :eek2:

[Bjauck]

Why has ST recommended this dunce for so long... what's the appeal except the NTA and some ST'ers may be residents of OCA soon ;)

I'm out of the NZ market entirely for now, sick of it. The narrow NZ market has certainly been a laggard recently but may Tomorrow Belongs to Us.

[Balance]

Triggering the anticipated takeover offer of $1.00? :p

Can imagine that the directors will get lynched if they reject an offer like that - almost 100% premium if sp drops to say, 51 cents! :eek2:

BTW, there is a rumour going around that the very same offshore infrastructure fund who bid $1.70 per share for Arvida in September last year is back in town.

Hmmmmm - who could they be interested in this time? :p

[Greekwatchdog]

BTW, there is a rumour going around that the very same offshore infrastructure fund who bid $1.70 per share for Arvida in September last year is back in town.

Hmmmmm - who could they be interested in this time? :p

If this so called "rumour" of yours is true, I hope its better communicated to the shareholders (assume its OCA) than the board of ARV did because boy do they have explaining to do.

Just for the record I won't be selling my 1.1m shares at an average of $0.61 to them.

I will leave there, you momentum/short term traders can do as you always do, sell NZ Assets cheap to foreigners on the cheap

[thegreatestben]

GWD is a big dog!

[nztx]

Costs outstripping house price growth (alongside regulation) is a risk across the sector and OCA is particularly exposed to both.


Chances any better of this one borrowing to pay your divie .. seeing as Ryman didn't ? ;)

[bottomfeeder]

I would take 1.15. Still, I would be annoyed. Was hoping to make more money. But you cant complain with money back and a tidy profit.

[nztx]

Gez where did all that hidden intrinsic heaps of value suddenly disappear to ? ;)


SR will be most p*ssed off when the takeover docs hit his inbox ;)

[mike2020]

Takeover talk usually starts when punters are in the red and are past capitulation and want instant relief. I would be disappointed if it happened. The NZX is pretty small and all options seem cyclical, every one that goes off the board is one less future opportunity.

If you take a good look at the current casualty list on the NZX it is extensive. Some were my fav did payers and the day will come again for those I'm sure. People always say you should take at least a 5 year view here and if you think you will need money even in 10 years be careful. I think that is forgotten easily.

Where will OCA be in 5 years? Hopefully in my portfolio.

[Bjauck]

Takeover talk usually starts when punters are in the red and are past capitulation and want instant relief. I would be disappointed if it happened. The NZX is pretty small and all options seem cyclical, every one that goes off the board is one less future opportunity.

If you take a good look at the current casualty list on the NZX it is extensive. Some were my fav did payers and the day will come again for those I'm sure. People always say you should take at least a 5 year view here and if you think you will need money even in 10 years be careful. I think that is forgotten easily.

Where will OCA be in 5 years? Hopefully in my portfolio. Frankly, with current government (no matter whether Labour or National flavours) policy settings, I think the NZX is doomed to remain small and cyclical with a large number of de listings as a result of takeover or migration to overseas exchanges. I thought MET was a nice recovery stock. So with ARV and OCA, which will be the next RV to head into some other country’s portfolio?

[Balance]

Takeover talk usually starts when punters are in the red and are past capitulation and want instant relief. I would be disappointed if it happened. The NZX is pretty small and all options seem cyclical, every one that goes off the board is one less future opportunity.

If you take a good look at the current casualty list on the NZX it is extensive. Some were my fav did payers and the day will come again for those I'm sure. People always say you should take at least a 5 year view here and if you think you will need money even in 10 years be careful. I think that is forgotten easily.

Where will OCA be in 5 years? Hopefully in my portfolio.

Absolutely right, mike2020 regarding talk of takeovers. There are some rather sore-bootie OCA shareholders!

It astounds me that MSCI announced OCA's indexing exit on Feb 2 and people kept buying the shares - anyone with any market sense should & would know that OCA's sp was only going to go one way until index exit day!

In fact, there were 21m shares traded - allowing the selling shorters and institutions to make a nice gain.

5 years or 1 week, knowing or being aware of market dynamics is important.

[allfromacell]

Absolutely right, mike2020 regarding talk of takeovers. There are some rather sore-bootie OCA shareholders!

It astounds me that MSCI announced OCA's indexing exit on Feb 2 and people kept buying the shares - anyone with any market sense should & would know that OCA's sp was only going to go one way until index exit day!

In fact, there were 21m shares traded - allowing the selling shorters and institutions to make a nice gain.

5 years or 1 week, knowing or being aware of market dynamics is important.

I'd argue anyone with any market sense should know there is no certainty in markets. There are plenty of reasons why the SP could have bottomed before index day and it did in fact find a low two days prior.

30M shares sounds like a lot but the reality it is chump change for any institution looking to take a significant stake in OCA. It was an optimal time to buy with the additional liquidity being sold on market eg ANZ purchasing 10M+.

No one knows who else might have been looking to take advantage of the forced selling.

[bottomfeeder]

Takeover rumblings? We will see.

[jfbl5690]

Hi Maverick, first time poster, I really enjoy your analysis of OCA. When I look at the HY 2024 cash flow statement I see $105m in ORA receipts, how does this relate to your HY number of $130m for what seems like the same line item (ORA new and resales)?

[Balance]

I'd argue anyone with any market sense should know there is no certainty in markets. There are plenty of reasons why the SP could have bottomed before index day and it did in fact find a low two days prior.

30M shares sounds like a lot but the reality it is chump change for any institution looking to take a significant stake in OCA. It was an optimal time to buy with the additional liquidity being sold on market eg ANZ purchasing 10M+.

No one knows who else might have been looking to take advantage of the forced selling.

There is one certainty when a stock is exited from the MSCI global index - the sp will drop.

If you can point to one which did not, please do so as we all learn something new everyday and I for one would welcome the opportunity to learn about this.

[Valuegrowth]

[QUOTE=ronaldson;1043042]
Thanks for taking the time to visit and sharing that Ronaldson.
That area is spoilt for choice with new RV offerings. SUM and OCA just around the corner.
I visited that site a few months ago and had a good yak to the foreman guy. He was frothy about how well things were going ( Resident wise) The villas were going well and plenty of vibe going on.

They we’re still working on the apartments (scaffolding etc still up) . So I suspect it’s just the apartments that would appear empty which would be as expected but the villas should be well occupied. Is this what you observed Ron?

OCa expect to sell a couple of apartments or care suites per site each month and MET will be no different.

It is a super classy villlage.

Another thing . You quite liked the MET result last week. Totally agree with you.
There we’re several key highlights in there ;
-ORA sales up 12%.
-Care revenue up a heap (the Dhb increase last year.)
-A comment from CBRE buried in the fine print that Rv sales are doing much better than the lacklustre NZ residential sales numbers.

These are the essential drivers for OCAs profit jump this year. I still can’t see any reason to downgrade my high expectations of this year.
Maverick
If acquisition take place What's going to happen after that? I have some bad experience when they delisted their companies.

[Maverick]

[QUOTE=Maverick;1043070]
Maverick
If acquisition take place What's going to happen after that? I have some bad experience when they delisted their companies.
Value growth , are asking what happens if OCA acquired or taken over?

I must be misunderstanding your question as there are countless examples of this with obvious outcomes.

[ValueNZ]

[QUOTE=Valuegrowth;1043303]
Value, are asking what happens if OCA acquired or taken over?

I must be misunderstanding your question as there are countless examples of this with obvious outcomes.
Valuegrowth is a AI chatbot... Best to ignore it.

[Valuegrowth]

[QUOTE=Valuegrowth;1043303]
Value, are asking what happens if OCA acquired or taken over?

I must be misunderstanding your question as there are countless examples of this with obvious outcomes. Thank you for the response. Yes. What happens if OCA acquired? How long it will take to pay shareholders if they accept the offer price?

[Maverick]

[QUOTE=Maverick;1043314]
Valuegrowth is a AI chatbot... Best to ignore it.
Holy smoke ValueNZ…..I think you’re right.

[mike2020]

[QUOTE=Maverick;1043314]
Valuegrowth is a AI chatbot... Best to ignore it.

Why would an AI chatbot inhabit sharetrader? It seems bizarre.

[kiwical]

[QUOTE=Maverick;1043314]
Valuegrowth is a AI chatbot... Best to ignore it.Didn't realise AI chatbots existed in 2013 when that account was opened.......

[Bjauck]

Thank you for the response. Yes. What happens if OCA acquired? How long it will take to pay shareholders if they accept the offer price?
You have to look at the way the takeover is structured too. There may be unexpected tax consequences depending on how much of the takeover consideration actually is a taxable dividend. So you may need to consider selling the shareholding prior to the actual takeover date.

[Daytr]

[QUOTE=ValueNZ;1043315]

Why would an AI chatbot inhabit sharetrader? It seems bizarre.

They aren't, but perhaps English is not their first language.

It's something that SailorBoy made up to discredit them & ValueNZ swallowed it.

[ValueNZ]

They aren't, but perhaps Engish is not their first language.

It's something that SailorBoy made up to discredit them & ValueNZ swallowed it.
No it was proven on the Black Monday thread at some point. Valuegrowth was using americanised english which AI uses, making generic comments about "multi baggers" he had but wouldn't tell us what companies they were, and his posts are very clearly robotic and formulaic.

I do not wish to comment on this further... Too boring.

[Valuegrowth]

You have to look at the way the takeover is structured too. There may be unexpected tax consequences depending on how much of the takeover consideration actually is a taxable dividend. So you may need to consider selling the shareholding prior to the actual takeover date.

Thank you Bjauck for your great explanation.

[Daytr]

No it was proven on the Black Monday thread at some point. Valuegrowth was using americanised english which AI uses, making generic comments about "multi baggers" he had but wouldn't tell us what companies they were, and his posts are very clearly robotic and formulaic.

I do not wish to comment on this further... Too boring.

A lot of people's settings are set to American English. But you are right it's boring and you raised it in the first place and not for the first time. But it's boring. 🤣