OCA - Oceania Group - retirement villages

[Beagle]

One year is where im focused atm so im waiting for a far better opp to top up at decent discount. the price you pay makes the difference between a very good investment and an ordinary one. Happy with my 79c average atp, its been that very good investment due to the entry price point..

Fair enough. Plenty of investors were very happy to partake in the recent placement at $1.10. Must say I am a little surprised you didn't. I doubled down. Don't forget that between the time Quadrant sold their first stake in SUM and the second two months later the price went up 18%. $1.14 when they announced the first placement plus 18% = $1.345. History never repeats does it, especially when the fundamentals are so much more attractive in this instance...percentage gains are one thing, the size of the bat you use to hit the ball is another :p

[Bjauck]

I think this late stage care is worth continuously looking at. Seems to me (so I must do more research) that we are living longer and a combination of better nutrition, better housing and better healthcare / drugs will see us all living longer. But not necessarily better. Theres a train load of senior care having left the station and as each year goes by more passengers get on than get off. And those tracks lead to only one place - increased demand for senior care with dignity. i would say that NZ is becoming a more disparate nation from rich to poor as far as both longevity, housing, nutrition and standard of living is concerned. More expensive medical treatments, gadgets and over the counter medications could make it more so in the future.

The average life expectancy may be rising but likely masks a static life expectancy for the lower middle income/wealth cohorts and a drop for the poorer wealth cohorts.

What would this mean for senior care? Perhaps not much for the next 15 odd years but after that there may well be more seniors who have not been able to buy their own housing and who have not had healthy nutrition and adequate dental care. They may well have a need for intensive care at an earlier age and perhaps for longer even if they may not have as long a life as their wealthier peers.

For example, with poor nutrition, adult onset diabetes in the young is becoming prevalent these days. So many senior afflictions present themselves in more middle-aged adults, some of whom may consequently need long-term care. Will the more "down-market" providers bear the brunt of this? Will the government continue to squeeze adequate funding for long term care?

The benefits of medical advancements and nutrition etc may not be shared as evenly as may have been the case in the post WW2 decades.

[Joshuatree]

I think many of us can agree OCA is good place to be a holder in and that size doesn't matter and its human nature that some folks think their's is bigger than others until the tide goes out. Oceania tide is always coming in, good place to set a net ehh.

[Beagle]

I think this late stage care is worth continuously looking at. Seems to me (so I must do more research) that we are living longer and a combination of better nutrition, better housing and better healthcare / drugs will see us all living longer. But not necessarily better. Theres a train load of senior care having left the station and as each year goes by more passengers get on than get off. And those tracks lead to only one place - increased demand for senior care with dignity.

Yes mate its pretty sad for those that have to accept the minimum standard that the Govt will fund living in some 12-14 sq metre room with no on-suite. I think OCA are extremely well position to provide a decent living environment and very good care to go with it. I think the whole care suite model is fantastic. Moving into a lovely ~ 30 sq meter unit with its own kitchenette and bathroom and never having to move again...and as ones needs change they can have anything from simple assistance with meals and cleaning morph into full hospital or dementia care right in their own unit without having to move again. Can't get better than that and yes JT, a great place to set a net as the tide comes in for the next 20-30 years. Hopefully this hound lives long enough to see full tide :)

[Baa_Baa]

I think this late stage care is worth continuously looking at. Seems to me (so I must do more research) that we are living longer and a combination of better nutrition, better housing and better healthcare / drugs will see us all living longer. But not necessarily better. Theres a train load of senior care having left the station and as each year goes by more passengers get on than get off. And those tracks lead to only one place - increased demand for senior care with dignity.

If you really want to get the inside knowledge, to do the research, pop down to your local late stage care provider and volunteer your services.

Read to them, talk to them, play them music (you'd ace that), organise the annual fund raiser or hold a stall, drive the outings van, engage with the people, wheel the infirmed around, feed them at dinner time, wipe their mouths, brush their hair, take them shopping or to the toilet, make them feel like a person despite their cognitive or physical state, console them when a loved resident passes, support the families of residents. there's heaps you can do … feel the love and give it back.

It's only direct experience that will truely provide the insights into people's end of life pathways and the the care they deserve and get. It will also enamour one to those who choose the profession, the skills they have from the nurses to the drug dispensary to the home manager, the kitchen, the cleaners and everything involved in caring for our elderly who can no longer care for themselves.

For me it was by association to be involved but getting involved was the most cathartic experience of my life so far and one that formed the basis of my investment decisions in this sector.

[minimoke]

If you really want to get the inside knowledge, to do the research, pop down to your local late stage care provider and volunteer your services.

………...
For me it was by association to be involved but getting involved was the most cathartic experience of my life so far and one that formed the basis of my investment decisions in this sector.Semi ditto on my part. Spent enough time in these places to know what I am prepared to invest in. (Theres more than one way at looking at expenditure and dividends)

[Joshuatree]

Great post compassion and ,"doing" there Baa Baa.
I visit a relative regularly in a dementia ward and have learnt to engage and talk , joke etc with others there as equals. Some appear to have few visits and whether they are "with"it or seemingly not even just acknowledging them with a greeting, respect and eye contact makes a difference. Thanks for sharing and caring.

[value_investor]

I've slowly been deploying more cash to this but still holding out a little bit more. Admittedly, I'm not one for the daily price movements.

I think what we've learnt so far is that the company is dedicated to a certain model and has competencies in what it does providing more "care" and less of just selling retirement units and that is its point of difference. Its more about now proving it to us as investors with consistently good results, ie. can this deliver on a RYM or a SUM?

I'd like to see going forward how that translate to growth in underlying profit and more importantly EPS numbers. It seems its value for now is very much undecided by the market on the whole. I like how management are also buying into this in what is large quantities which is awesome.

We are still very early in the long game that is the retirement sector. I don't think the real game has started yet, when there is critical mass for demand of the services a company such as OCA provides. The aging population and the resulting effect is like a snowball gathering momentum on the top of a large hill. We're still waiting for it to fall but we all know it will.

[Blue Skies]

Agreed, great post Baa Baa. Having had several relatives spend their final years in these homes, know well what a huge difference regular frequent visits & proper engagement (as opposed to scrolling through emails/ news feeds etc on the phone with one eye on the clock) can make to their residents. For all of us, but especially the elderly, having something to look forward to is so important, it's the frequent small joys in life that lift our spirits, rather than the v occasional large one.

Recently 2 friends in their early 60's tragically have had strokes (over 9000/ year in NZ, & that's increasing with ageing pop) & in an instant have gone from normal busy lives, to severely disabled beyond the capabilities of their partners to cope with on their own. In both cases they're now looking at selling the family home & moving to an assisted living home like OCA & rebuilding their lives. It's tragic but without places like OCA with the services they can provide, life would be pretty desperate.
(On that note, know the signs of stroke, fast attention is critical to outcomes)

[Maverick]

Are my eyes playing tricks? that's nearly 4 million shares shifted today - that's making the recent 95 million placement starting to look not so big anymore.

[Beagle]

Are my eyes playing tricks? that's nearly 4 million shares shifted today - that's making the recent 95 million placement starting to look not so big anymore.


One and half million crossed at $1.20. Building a support base there for the next big push north.

[Yoda]

Decisions decisions .... I have twice as many in OCA as i do in SKO ..... Which one will double the quickest? . Im too old to make mistakes .

[percy]

Decisions decisions .... I have twice as many in OCA as i do in SKO ..... Which one will double the quickest? . Im too old to make mistakes .

Why do anything.?

[Filthy]

Decisions decisions .... I have twice as many in OCA as i do in SKO ..... Which one will double the quickest? . Im too old to make mistakes .

depends on your risk profile. imo OCA is a far more defensive choice. it could easily plod along and double within the next 4/5 years, where as your typical tech stock could easily triple, then double, then halve, then halve again, then double..... then halve - which can be bl00dy exciting, but also a disaster if you don't exit at the right time. I guess it all depends on what the rest of your portfolio looks like and your risk appetite. GL

[Justin]

hi, just wonder property market depreciation will affect OCA or not? Thanks

[Blue Skies]

Huge interest continues, over $1M gone through in first hour including some big off market orders e.g. 600,000 @121.
OCA seems to have the X Factor, maybe people who missed out on getting into RYM on the ground floor, seeing a second opportunity here?

[RTM]

Decisions decisions .... I have twice as many in OCA as i do in SKO ..... Which one will double the quickest? . Im too old to make mistakes .

Hard to know. I've got more OCA because I need/like the dividend.
Not good at eating capital gains.

[Bjauck]

....Im too old to make mistakes . If you also cannot afford to lose the capital and/or income from the capital, is it time to put your money into something less likely to have price fluctuations - for example a secure term deposit?

[Yoda]

If you also cannot afford to lose the capital and/or income from the capital, is it time to put your money into something less likely to have price fluctuations - for example a secure term deposit?
Thanks.... Not quite that old :scared:....still got a 5 in front ..:t_up: , currently 14% gain a year av. Hoping this makes 20% min .

[Ggcc]

Heading down slowly off it’s high. Maybe starting to get attractive for long and short term holders now...... Of course DYOR

[Beagle]

Caught up with a bit of background reading over the weekend and reflected a bit on a clients activities with trying to get consent over the last 18 months or so with the Environment court, (spent a seven figure sum on a wide range of consultants, planners and experts as well as lawyers, court fees e.t.cc. and might as well have beaten his head against a brick wall).

Reflected on the Boulcott site drama, bought in 2014 and still no consent.

What started all this reflection was this comment by CEO Mr Gibbons of Colonial Motors in their annual report, (he's been around for a very long time so always good to read really experienced people's opinions)
"The time frame to get any form of facility upgrade or new build continues to stretch out. Initial planning and then the approvals process - resource and building consents - is becoming more complex with Councils countrywide applying the rule book to minute detail. Discretion and judgment are no longer a known language and independent expert reports in all area's are part of the process"

I suspect this just keeps getting worse and worse from what I have witnessed my client experience.

One major point of difference we all know is that OCA's primary form of expansion over the next 7 years or so is going to be brownfields developments which are much easier to get planning consent to expand / modernize and redevelop that a greenfields development from scratch.

What an amazing contrast with some of the other players in this sector, here we have a company with (as reported in its annual report 61% of the next 7 years of developments already consented) and as updated at a recent New Zealand shareholders presentation now at 65% consented and others are struggling to get consents and there may be some uncertainty as to whether they can for some sites.

Interestingly, as reported in the annual report OCA delivered 131 Units and care suites last year but "Resource consents were obtained across three facilities comprising 457 units and care suites over the year" so significant consenting far in advance of the build rate occurred over FY18.

In the presentation that accompanied the annual results OCA said their NTA inclusive of expenditure on sites to date was $1.04 and my interpretation of that is that total is the sum of money expended on the development and consent process to date on top of the current valuation of properties plant and equipment.

A few thoughts I'd like to share.

I believe the historical cost of obtaining consents is FAR less than the cost of trying to endeavor to get these consents today or in the future. There is significant unrecognized embedded value in consents already obtained in my view. Call it intellectual property if you like.


Speaking of IP, there is a very good moat with this company. You don't build up arguably the most enviable clinical care track record overnight, this takes a VERY long time an d none of that IP is showing on the balance sheet.

The consents substantially de-risk this company going forward.

On another topic its not all good news. It looks like the tax losses carried forward from previous years won't be able to be carried forward into FY19 as with the Maquarie sell down it would appear the loss carried forward rules won't be met so the company may have to start paying some tax in regard to FY19 earnings. Its impossible for me to speculate at what rate as other sector players involved heavily in village development pay very little tax but OCA does have quite an established care bed book so there looks likely to be some tax which will may dampen down FY19 profit growth relative to FY18. That said the company is on track to complete 272 units this year vs 131 last year so that's more than double last years development book. The effect of this however could be very good for yield investors as with the company paying about 55% of underlying net profit after tax the company in the near term may be able to impute their dividends.

If they pay 5.5 cps in dividends fully imputed for FY19 up from 4.7 cps unimputed this lifts the gross yield to potentially 5.5 / 0.72 = 7.64 cps and on $1.20 this gives a gross yield of 6.4% which is the best in this sector by quite some margin !..and of course there's more growth in dividends to come.

The other thing about this company's business model compared to the others is the much faster churn rate of apartments and care suites and the 30% retention model.
This augers very well for the future of shareholder returns. Care suites by value are much lower than independent living apartments so care needs to be taken in assessing the overall churn rate by average value of the unit. Apartments are about every 5 years according to Earl Gasparich at the recent aforementioned investor briefing and care suites about 2.5 - 3 years. By average value I think the average churn, (once the redevelopment of all their existing facilities is completed in due course) is somewhere just a little over 4 years, probably the quickest in the industry by a wide margin

Overall my assessment is the market is undervaluing the company and not fully appreciating that the substantially consented future development book considerably de-risks the company relative to its peers and is not fully recognizing the future earnings power of the company due to its faster turnover of units.

[dubya]

Great post Beagle. Thank you very much for taking the time to do it. Much appreciated.

[tuaman]

Beagle's anayisis is the best "out of the box thinking" insights I have ever encountered in this forum. Thank you a million.

[Sinvester]

Caught up with a bit of background reading over the weekend and reflected a bit on a clients activities with trying to get consent over the last 18 months or so with the Environment court, (spent a seven figure sum on a wide range of consultants, planners and experts as well as lawyers, court fees e.t.cc. and might as well have beaten his head against a brick wall).

Reflected on the Boulcott site drama, bought in 2014 and still no consent.

What started all this reflection was this comment by CEO Mr Gibbons of Colonial Motors in their annual report, (he's been around for a very long time so always good to read really experienced people's opinions)
"The time frame to get any form of facility upgrade or new build continues to stretch out. Initial planning and then the approvals process - resource and building consents - is becoming more complex with Councils countrywide applying the rule book to minute detail. Discretion and judgment are no longer a known language and independent expert reports in all area's are part of the process"

I suspect this just keeps getting worse and worse from what I have witnessed my client experience.

One major point of difference we all know is that OCA's primary form of expansion over the next 7 years or so is going to be brownfields developments which are much easier to get planning consent to expand / modernize and redevelop that a greenfields development from scratch.

What an amazing contrast with some of the other players in this sector, here we have a company with (as reported in its annual report 61% of the next 7 years of developments already consented) and as updated at a recent New Zealand shareholders presentation now at 65% consented and others are struggling to get consents and there may be some uncertainty as to whether they can for some sites.

Interestingly, as reported in the annual report OCA delivered 131 Units and care suites last year but "Resource consents were obtained across three facilities comprising 457 units and care suites over the year" so significant consenting far in advance of the build rate occurred over FY18.

In the presentation that accompanied the annual results OCA said their NTA inclusive of expenditure on sites to date was $1.04 and my interpretation of that is that total is the sum of money expended on the development and consent process to date on top of the current valuation of properties plant and equipment.

A few thoughts I'd like to share.

I believe the historical cost of obtaining consents is FAR less than the cost of trying to endeavor to get these consents today or in the future. There is significant unrecognized embedded value in consents already obtained in my view. Call it intellectual property if you like.


Speaking of IP, there is a very good moat with this company. You don't build up arguably the most enviable clinical care track record overnight, this takes a VERY long time an d none of that IP is showing on the balance sheet.

The consents substantially de-risk this company going forward.

On another topic its not all good news. It looks like the tax losses carried forward from previous years won't be able to be carried forward into FY19 as with the Maquarie sell down it would appear the loss carried forward rules won't be met so the company may have to start paying some tax in regard to FY19 earnings. Its impossible for me to speculate at what rate as other sector players involved heavily in village development pay very little tax but OCA does have quite an established care bed book so there looks likely to be some tax which will may dampen down FY19 profit growth relative to FY18. That said the company is on track to complete 272 units this year vs 131 last year so that's more than double last years development book. The effect of this however could be very good for yield investors as with the company paying about 55% of underlying net profit after tax the company in the near term may be able to impute their dividends.

If they pay 5.5 cps in dividends fully imputed for FY19 up from 4.7 cps unimputed this lifts the gross yield to potentially 5.5 / 0.72 = 7.64 cps and on $1.20 this gives a gross yield of 6.4% which is the best in this sector by quite some margin !..and of course there's more growth in dividends to come.

The other thing about this company's business model compared to the others is the much faster churn rate of apartments and care suites and the 30% retention model.
This augers very well for the future of shareholder returns. Care suites by value are much lower than independent living apartments so care needs to be taken in assessing the overall churn rate by average value of the unit. Apartments are about every 5 years according to Earl Gasparich at the recent aforementioned investor briefing and care suites about 2.5 - 3 years. By average value I think the average churn, (once the redevelopment of all their existing facilities is completed in due course) is somewhere just a little over 4 years, probably the quickest in the industry by a wide margin

Overall my assessment is the market is undervaluing the company and not fully appreciating that the substantially consented future development book considerably de-risks the company relative to its peers and is not fully recognizing the future earnings power of the company due to its faster turnover of units.
Great piece of writing Beagle, just with regards to resource consents, isn't the surrounding neighbors are more of an unpredictable hazard than the council? At least with the council you have a set of rules that you have to comply with but with all this public submissions it can get very painful and bloody expensive!

[Beagle]

Great piece of writing Beagle, just with regards to resource consents, isn't the surrounding neighbors are more of an unpredictable hazard than the council? At least with the council you have a set of rules that you have to comply with but with all this public submissions it can get very painful and bloody expensive!

Honestly both Councils and neighbors are MAJOR obstacles now. The amount of legalize that one must comply with for consenting boggles the mind.

[peat]

At least with the council you have a set of rules that you have to comply with ...
Council dont even know the rules though so there is risk dealing with them too

Auckland consent blunder: 430 homeowners forced to reapply
https://www.nzherald.co.nz/nz/news/article.cfm?c_id=1&objectid=12115600

[Beagle]

Yeap, The unitary plan is causing major headaches and in my opinion gross incompetence is widespread at Auckland Council.

[macduffy]

Great piece of writing Beagle, just with regards to resource consents, isn't the surrounding neighbors are more of an unpredictable hazard than the council? At least with the council you have a set of rules that you have to comply with but with all this public submissions it can get very painful and bloody expensive!

That's certainly the case with Summerset's Boulcott development. Best hope now is for a much delayed reduced development to meet neighbours' concerns.

[Maverick]

Wow Beagle , thanks for putting so much effort into letting us know your weekend thinking. Extremely well written too.

[Lewylewylewy]

I visited a rym village this weekend. Helluva lot nicer than the $#%^^y town around it. No noisy parties or dodgy characters (except me) hanging around.

... I'd be ok with living near a retirement village, personally.

[Blue Skies]

Ditto, many many thanks Beagle for sharing your insights & analysis with us, always hugely appreciated.

[Bjauck]

I visited a rym village this weekend. Helluva lot nicer than the $#%^^y town around it. No noisy parties or dodgy characters (except me) hanging around.

... I'd be ok with living near a retirement village, personally. I would agree with you if the development were low density with just single or two storey units. I can understand objections when there are multi-storey blocks involved. For most kiwis their home is their biggest investment by far. Nimbyism is often self preservation in the face of inadequate compensation.

[DarkHorse]

Just read your excellent post thank you Beagle. Makes me feel even better about having an order filled this morning - now my largest NZ holding. (In Oz JIN just keeps on the up and up^^)

[Beagle]

You're most welcome folks and too kind. Just want to add that based on discussions with people in the industry and based on my first impressions meeting the CEO Earl Gasparich recently at the New Zealand shareholders association investor briefing I have a very positive view of his leadership abilities. He presented very well and clearly articulated their strategy going forward. One of the secrets of a really good leader is their ability to bring out the best in their staff and I think he has this "special sauce" if you like. He's young enough to have heaps of energy and old enough to have plenty of experience, looks fit and isn't carrying any extra weight.

I think it was Whome who commented to me after the meeting that he looks like a man at the top of his game which is a fair assessment of how I see it too.
Good leaders take the time to sit down with their employees and garner feedback from the coalface. Earl does this just like Simon Challis used too. He's not greedy either, base salary just $480K per annual report plus bonus's. Very few people making over $200K in the company, (only 7 from memory including the CEO...isn't this an absolute breath of fresh air compared to a lot of the troughing that we see in other companies ?) Speaking of things refreshing...Its very refreshing to see board members buying up absolutely heaps of shares in the recent placement.

[Bjauck]

That's certainly the case with Summerset's Boulcott development. Best hope now is for a much delayed reduced development to meet neighbours' concerns.
I think to an extent this is the consequence of so much NZ household wealth being invested in owner occupied housing. The plus side for the retirement village companies is that high values for residential land has boosted the retirement companies valuations.

However most NZ households have a very undiversified investment portfolio. Much household wealth is invested in the one home. This could be a problem with developments in suburbs. Homeowners will object strongly to developments that they will see as changing and undermining the desirability of their area and home. Dense developments with blocks of apartments may spoil outlook and the nature of a locale.

[Blue Skies]

Just to add to the observations re leadership & staff, yesterday rang OCA to make a general enquiry on behalf of some friends who need a bit of support after one of them had a stroke. They're ok but are struggling to cope with a large old house & property, & will need to move to an assisted living arrangement & don't seem to know where to start.
I was incredibly impressed with the OCA woman I spoke to, who was not only genuinely kind & empathetic, but also super helpful & knowledgable about all the options OCA offer, the diff properties etc & the detail around processes implications, govt subsidies, income levels etc. She also & this may seem a minor thing, but it's not when talking to older people whose neurons/synapses may not be firing as quickly as they once did, gently matched her pace to mine & after half an hour was still just as interested & engaged as when we started the conversation. At a point when people are feeling v vulnerable & the options can be confusing, I thought she would be so reassuring & helpful, a bit of a lifeboat really & a great asset for the company. Anyway just thought worthy of mention as staff so important, that first point of contact creates such a lasting impression & as we know if people are made to feel connected with & genuinely interested in, they're less inclined to bother enquiring elsewhere & more likely to recommend to other friends in similar circumstances.

A point of interest re the min age of 70, in the case of a couple, both have to be 70 or over. If they accepted a 70 year old with 65 year old partner & the 70 year old died, they would have to request the 65 year old leave & they would never put themselves in that position. There is some talk of one of the co's raising their min age up to 75 ( not OCA though)

I added a few more OCA to my holding last week as see this as an excellent well managed co in a very strong sector, still good value, & such a solid long term bet.
Projecting forward a few years, hopefully watching the America's Cup in 2021 & looking back, will I regret buying more of those OCA @ 122 back in 2018? .....It's certainly possible but without being arrogant, probably not!

[Ggcc]

Just to add to the observations re leadership & staff, yesterday rang OCA to make a general enquiry on behalf of some friends who need a bit of support after one of them had a stroke. They're ok but are struggling to cope with a large old house & property, & will need to move to an assisted living arrangement & don't seem to know where to start.
I was incredibly impressed with the OCA woman I spoke to, who was not only genuinely kind & empathetic, but also super helpful & knowledgable about all the options OCA offer, the diff properties etc & the detail around processes implications, govt subsidies, income levels etc. She also & this may seem a minor thing, but it's not when talking to older people whose neurons/synapses may not be firing as quickly as they once did, gently matched her pace to mine & after half an hour was still just as interested & engaged as when we started the conversation. At a point when people are feeling v vulnerable & the options can be confusing, I thought she would be so reassuring & helpful, a bit of a lifeboat really & a great asset for the company. Anyway just thought worthy of mention as staff so important, that first point of contact creates such a lasting impression & as we know if people are made to feel connected with & genuinely interested in, they're less inclined to bother enquiring elsewhere & more likely to recommend to other friends in similar circumstances.

A point of interest re the min age of 70, in the case of a couple, both have to be 70 or over. If they accepted a 70 year old with 65 year old partner & the 70 year old died, they would have to request the 65 year old leave & they would never put themselves in that position. There is some talk of one of the co's raising their min age up to 75 ( not OCA though)

I added a few more OCA to my holding last week as see this as an excellent well managed co in a very strong sector, still good value, & such a solid long term bet.
Projecting forward a few years, hopefully watching the America's Cup in 2021 & looking back, will I regret buying more of those OCA @ 122 back in 2018? .....It's certainly possible but without being arrogant, probably not!
It is always our worst fear to put a loved one into care. Am I making the correct decision scenario. Empathy is something you either have or don’t have, it can be taught but it may take a lifetime to understand. That is why some people choose to become Doctors, Nurses, or Caregivers (not taking away from those that work behind the scenes). Great work by OCA staff to guide you through all the processes and give advice while keeping the conversation away from just business.

Thanks for your feedback. I am a happy shareholder when I hear these stories.

[warren]

Over 3 million shares sold/purchased already today ???? 3x bigger (numbers of shares) than anything else on market !!!
I am quite at a loss to understand?

[couta1]

Over 3 million shares sold/purchased already today ???? 3x bigger (numbers of shares) than anything else on market !!!
I am quite at a loss to understand? A little bird tells me a private investor is buying a sizable stake, don't ask me for any more info because Mum's the Word.

[RupertBear]

A little bird tells me a private investor is buying a sizable stake, don't ask me for any more info because Mum's the Word.

Would it be you stocking up an XOOOOOS position Couta?! ;)

[couta1]

Would it be you stocking up an XOOOOOS position Couta?! ;) Nope not me but I know who.;)

[RupertBear]

Nope not me but I know who.;)

It must be that Beagle then :D

[Ggcc]

A little bird tells me a private investor is buying a sizable stake, don't ask me for any more info because Mum's the Word.
It’s you!! Lol 100% all in go hard or go home.

[Maverick]

Here's is a rather pointless post other than to fill a bit of time while the company is actually building units and growing out there on this beautiful day. So completely off fundamental stuff which most of us (if not all) agree is superb and why we actually own a piece of this company.

Here goes...The last weeks trading pattern has me intrigued. During this time the buyers are lining in up in average parcels of about $10-15K but the sellers are in much larger average chunks of about $50k each. Here's what I mean, right now 16 buyers are lined up at $1.21 for a total of $130k whereas there are only 3 sellers that total $215 k. This has been happening for a week or so. Plus whenever the selling volume start to thin out the shares left for sale then another large $50k chunk gets dumped on and put out for sale.

Contrary to Couta`s knowledge of a private buyer accumulating it looks to me like a heavyweight is unloading. From my perspective its good news. That is, despite the huge daily share sales there seems loads of "little " buyers hungrily gobbling them up and they are more dominant than the seller. Ultimately the seller will exhaust himself supplying the many buyers then they will drive up the share price to entice more sellers and therefore up to its next temporary plateau.

Free advice to the seller.... "why don't you raise your price a bit."

[flyer]

They are building a brand new apartment complex in Browns Bay, right across the road from the beach. Im a bit young yet but I would love to live there.
https://www.oceaniahealthcare.co.nz/the-sands-care

[Beagle]

Maverick - Some institutions probably can't help themselves taking a quick ~ 11% profit from the recent placement. Those that took part in the placement for a quick buck will run out of shares in due course...none of this worries a long term investor.

Out and about today, (gosh Percy is right and one needs to get away from the market to get things into proper focus sometimes), I got to thinking about the NTA of $1.04 as at balance date as per the companies analyst presentation, see here http://nzx-prod-s7fsd7f98s.s3-website-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/attachments/OCA/321282/283328.pdf and accrued earnings since balance date gets you somewhere close to $1.10 NTA.

I then got to thinking about all the intellectual property of the company I was referring to at post #2022, their stellar clinical care reputation earned over many many years and the value of all their resource consents in advance including more obtained since balance date and then the value of the earnings power of their business model with the much quicker churn of units compared to their peers and how much more defensive this is being needs based than peer companies that are selling lots of units based on lifestyle. For all that you're paying only about 10% above NTA so next to nothing for all that intellectual property compared to say RYM at $13.40 where the vast majority of the share price is IP ! (NTA only $3.83). SUM is trading at slightly more than double its NTA.

I then reflected on not only how realistically priced OCA is on a NTA basis, also a fundamental basis compared to its peer group with forward PE so cheap and the technical analysis looks so beautiful too and then finally there's also the dividend yield being the best in the sector...I think I've just about talked myself into doing a Couta1 and going all in lol
P.S. I still hold SUM.

Go hard or go home, isn't that the mantra Couta1...Isn't it funny how your mates rub off on you a bit :)

[Food4Thought]

Maverick - Some institutions probably can't help themselves taking a quick ~ 11% profit from the recent placement. Those that took part in the placement for a quick buck will run out of shares in due course...none of this worries a long term investor.

Out and about today, (gosh Percy is right and one needs to get away from the market to get things into proper focus sometimes), I got to thinking about the NTA of $1.04 as at balance date as per the companies analyst presentation, see here http://nzx-prod-s7fsd7f98s.s3-website-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/attachments/OCA/321282/283328.pdf and accrued earnings since balance date gets you somewhere close to $1.10 NTA.

I then got to thinking about all the intellectual property of the company I was referring to at post #2022, their stellar clinical care reputation earned over many many years and the value of all their resource consents in advance including more obtained since balance date and then the value of the earnings power of their business model with the much quicker churn of units compared to their peers and how much more defensive this is being needs based than peer companies that are selling lots of units based on lifestyle. For all that you're paying only about 10% above NTA so next to nothing for all that intellectual property compared to say RYM at $13.40 where the vast majority of the share price is IP ! (NTA only $3.83). SUM is trading at slightly more than double its NTA.

I then reflected on not only how realistically priced OCA is on a NTA basis, also a fundamental basis compared to its peer group with forward PE so cheap and the technical analysis looks so beautiful too and then finally there's also the dividend yield being the best in the sector...I think I've just about talked myself into doing a Couta1 and going all in lol
P.S. I still hold SUM.

Go hard or go home, isn't that the mantra Couta1...Isn't it funny how your mates rub off on you a bit :)

I see where you are coming from Beagle. Good boy.

Always tempting to go all in... have burnt myself a few times doing this... then also made a good decision with a very heavy handed placement in another share... sold half. Smiles all round there... grateful for that.

You won't know till you go.

I still see this sector as having a very good long term potential and certainly has heaps of room for growth.

[Beagle]

Wow Beagle , thanks for putting so much effort into letting us know your weekend thinking. Extremely well written too.

You're welcome mate. Very good of you to make the effort to come up to Auckland for the meeting today and great to meet you and others and see some familiar faces again.

Never forget our favorite saying...you can't have too many ! :)

[winner69]

You're welcome mate. Very good of you to make the effort to come up to Auckland for the meeting today and great to meet you and others and see some familiar faces again.

Never forget our favorite saying...you can't have too many ! :)

These meetings sound fun .....but is this love affair with Oceania mass hysteria / running with the mob / must join the party stuff or is there any real reason why you can’t have too much

One of your recent get togethers it seemed A2 had you all so excited ....hmmm

[whome]

Absolutely it is Winner. Called group bias, but only because the fundamentals stack up when compared to the alternatives, and when Beagle provides a numbers analysis that reinforces those gut feelings of where a company is headed - well - Of course a little craft beer helps! We need your input at the next meeting bud.

[Beagle]

These meetings sound fun .....but is this love affair with Oceania mass hysteria / running with the mob / must join the party stuff or is there any real reason why you can’t have too much

One of your recent get togethers it seemed A2 had you all so excited ....hmmm

Bought heaps of ATM the next day after the last meeting at a fraction over $9 and they roared up within a month to over $14...not so good since then though.

[Timesurfer]

Bought heaps of ATM the next day after the last meeting at a fraction over $9 and they roared up within a month to over $14...not so good since then though.

Gotta know when to hold em and when to fold em

[Maverick]

These meetings sound fun .....but is this love affair with Oceania mass hysteria / running with the mob / must join the party stuff or is there any real reason why you can’t have too much

One of your recent get togethers it seemed A2 had you all so excited ....hmmm

A really important question Winner, and your point was raised at the "meeting". Are we talking this up to a blinded frenzy ? We discussed other companies of course and the banter was pro`s and con`s with them all but with OCA no one could actually come up with a fair "Con". Oversupply and government intervention were considered but they didn't stack up.
All those present were free thinking individuals way past the "hand waving, hallelujah , timeshare" bunch. I don`t think anyone there "runs with the mob" or is under the influence of "mass hysteria."
We all know there are things we don't know. So I'm sure we are all ears for contrary opinions.

[Beagle]

Yes I have turned up the Beagle nose forward sensor to maximum intensity looking for risks and there are some which I'll unpack shortly but all business's have challenges and the FA with a forward PE of about 12, very cheap for this sector and the market overall, TA also looks very attractive, leadership looks top notch and we all know the strong demographic tailwinds.

Against that is a modest chance of Govt policy change and HR issues but all business's have challenges recruiting the right staff at an affordable pay rate.
Earl Gasparich told me they have room within their annual Govt funding allocation to increase the pay for nurses to reduce the drift towards the public sector caused by the recent settlement nurses achieved with the DHB. The gap has been as high as $6 per hour...they will close that gap as best they can in the meantime and it will be closed completely with the next annual review of govt funding.

It is noted that the Sands in Browns Bay is scheduled for completion in May 2019, also OCA's balance date so any delay in completion will have a considerable effect on FY19 eps but will flow straight into Fy20's result. Worth noting however that the company has a very good track record of delivering new facilities on time and on budget.

Meanwhile Forest astutely noted at the ST meeting that many of those 272 units to be completed this year are high value units and if they make 35% development margin on those...eps could be interesting seeing as they only did about 130 units last year.

You can't have too many :D

[macduffy]

You can't have too many

It must be true. The dogs are barking it!

Seriously, OCA has all the attributes of an excellent investment - but some of the boosting is starting to get close to the pump!

[peat]

It must be true. The dogs are barking it!

Seriously, OCA has all the attributes of an excellent investment - but some of the boosting is starting to get close to the pump!

We just need to be sure that we understand the fact that exposure to property is a big factor in this sector , and property is theoretically in a huge bubble in this country

Property is also a big factor in a lot of other listed securities so its worthwhile to keep reminding ourselves how much our entire portfolios are exposed to property. Debt securities included

I have VHP for instance. Property.
And then theres Turners owning property as well. CMO as well. How far does ones exposure to property really go??

[Maverick]

We just need to be sure that we understand the fact that exposure to property is a big factor in this sector , and property is theoretically in a huge bubble in this country

Property is also a big factor in a lot of other listed securities so its worthwhile to keep reminding ourselves how much our entire portfolios are exposed to property. Debt securities included

I have VHP for instance. Property.
And then there's Turners owning property as well. CMO as well. How far does ones exposure to property really go??

True true. BUT the point of difference of this company is it has a high focus on the late care stage.
Two things about this is that if dad needs the last 2-3 years of his life to be intensively looked after then the family are hardily going to "time" his entry depending on his fallen property value (other wise you`re looking after him). The other thing is that he will have to come up with say 1/4 of a million for a care suite/bed rather than 1 million for a villa. Surely that's pretty achievable even in a downward property cycle.

Just saying that the very real property risk is going to treat OCA better than others.

[Beagle]

Much more defensive, I couldn't agree more Mav.

[couta1]

Much more defensive, I couldn't agree more Mav. Can we have a bit of serious downramping now guys. Okay I'll start, there are 28 buyers wanting an average of 13902 shares at $1.21 and 7 sellers selling an average of 50977 shares at $1.22, bigger sellers aye.

[Beagle]

Can we have a bit of serious downramping now guys.

LOL wouldn't be because you want more at $1.21 would it mate...I suspect you're not the only one.

[Harley]

Can we have a bit of serious downramping now guys. Okay I'll start, there are 28 buyers wanting an average of 13902 shares at $1.21 and 7 sellers selling an average of 50977 shares at $1.22, bigger sellers aye.
still looks like a good buy to me.

[couta1]

still looks like a good buy to me. I really liked your first unaltered post best the one about it being Overbought and going back to $1.18. Is that a double top formation I see on the chart coupled with all indicators screaming Overbought.

[Beagle]

I really liked your first unaltered post best the one about it being Overbought and going back to $1.18. Is that a double top formation I see on the chart coupled with all indicators screaming Overbought.

:lol: :lol: Nice try mate. You "rather conveniently" overlooked mentioning that by the Couta1 reversion theory, which as we all know is never wrong, these are worth at least $1.32 :)

[couta1]

:lol: :lol: Nice try mate. You "rather conveniently" overlooked mentioning that by the Couta1 reversion theory, which as we all know is never wrong, these are worth at least $1.32 :) Double drat, I've been reverted.

[Beagle]

Double drat, I've been reverted.

I know the feeling, someone did that to me with SUM lol

[winner69]

Double drat, I've been reverted.

Did you like that chart showing Synlait just reverting to the mean the other day

[couta1]

Did you like that chart showing Synlait just reverting to the mean the other day I liked the chart but not the massive red reversion arrow on my portfolio that goes with the chart, I'm still waiting patiently for you to put up an updated RYM/SUM ratio chart.

[Beagle]

Did you like that chart showing Synlait just reverting to the mean the other day

Can you believe it.... I got reverted twice in one week...no wonder I needed a few drinks on the weekend...I'm starting to really like the cash part of my poretfolio lol

[couta1]

That $1.22 line just keeps getting stronger.Lol.

[winner69]

That $1.22 line just keeps getting stronger.Lol.

......
Even more so when RYM gets to $12.20 (or SUM gets to $6.10)

[couta1]

My holding has suddenly become of an XXOS size today, may even add another X or two yet, after all every one keeps telling me you can't have too many and I reckon they could be right.

[percy]

My holding has suddenly become of an XXOS size today, may even add another X or two yet, after all every one keeps telling me you can't have too many and I reckon they could be right.

You are doing well...lol.

[RupertBear]

My holding has suddenly become of an XXOS size today, may even add another X or two yet, after all every one keeps telling me you can't have too many and I reckon they could be right.

Trust you! Your one in a million mate! :D

[couta1]

Nope, it's overbought so the tide is turning back to $1.18. And there we have it.Lol

[oldtech]

And there we have it.Lol

True, but I'd be wary of reading too much into it on a day like this!

[winner69]

True, but I'd be wary of reading too much into it on a day like this!

Might be 110;next week ...or the week after

[Beagle]

Might be 110;next week ...or the week after


Needs based business with strong growth on a forward PE of ~ 11...might as well go all in if it goes down there.

[percy]

"Be greedy when others are fearful."

[couta1]

"Be greedy when others are fearful." I have been a real pig on this one but I'm all out of chips now.

[percy]

I have been a real pig on this one but I'm all out of chips now.

Always the only time to stop....lol.

[Beagle]

I've put my hand (paw) up and got a few more too.

[oldtech]

I'm tempted but running low on cash :(

[Ggcc]

I'm tempted but running low on cash :(
Why rush to buy when the market keeps dropping every day? How many days in a row has the NZX gone down?

[LAC]

I'm tempted but running low on cash :(

I am out of chips as well:(

[couta1]

Why rush to buy when the market keeps dropping every day? How many days in a row has the NZX gone down? But you don't know when it's going to start going up again, great buying right now and will a cent or two really matter in a couple of years or so when the SP is double it's current value?

[macduffy]

But you don't know when it's going to start going up again, great buying right now and will a cent or two really matter in a couple of years or so when the SP is double it's current value?

No, a cent or two won't matter - but 10 or 15 cents might! I'm waiting to see if this is a minor stumble , or a full-blown correction.

:cool:

[longy]

What do you seeing in OCA that has the advantages over SUM and RYM? Thanks folks.

[Beagle]

What do you seeing in OCA that has the advantages over SUM and RYM? Thanks folks.

Please read my post #2022 and subsequent posts. In addition to that please note that this is very much a needs based company not a lifestyle choice that people make with the other retirement companies. Also note that the national average cost of a care suite is just $236K and an apartment just over $500K. These are considerably more affordable that the average RYM in particular and SUM unit leaving more scope for people to avail themselves of an OCA unit even if national average real estate prices drop. Simply put its a much more defensive business with a much higher churn rate. The metrics are also considerably more compelling, (my estimates forward PE OCA 11-12, SUM 15-16, RYM 28-29.) I am estimating gross dividend yield from OCA of about 5.5%, v SUM 1.8% and RYM also about 1.8%.

[longy]

Thanks Beagle. Great research.

[warren]

What do you seeing in OCA that has the advantages over SUM and RYM? Thanks folks.

Well now, I presume you are referring to the tricky times in which we live (the last 10 days and the next 10)? I can't answer your question except to say 4 things

1. My experience with OCA and my own family member at the end of his life and the top quality OCA care unit he enjoyed for a short time, led me to form a very high opinion.

2. The quality of leadership at OCA ,who have backed themselves with very big investments, impresses.

3. The hammering by Mr Market of over priced stocks (especially where leaders have, unbelievably, dumped big shareholdings recently) is not so likely here for reasons Beagle so rightly states.

4. At $1.20 or so I remain exceptionally pleased re risk!! A milk company (that I never understood) at $14, well, that's quite a different story :)

[see weed]

Well I'm in with a grin. Feeling a lot more diversified by about 100% now, you all convinced me:t_up:.

[Beagle]

Thanks Beagle. Great research.


No worries. Tried to buy some more a minute or three ago at $1.19 and the offer disappeared and now it seems every man and his dog has decided to follow the beagle.
Got heaps but I want more because Maverick reckons you can't have too many :t_up: And I reckon with that comment he's hit the nail directly on the head !

[longy]

No worries. Tried to buy some more a minute or three ago at $1.19 and the offer disappeared and now it seems every man and his dog has decided to follow the beagle.
Got heaps but I want more because Maverick reckons you can't have too many :t_up: And I reckon with that comment he's hit the nail directly on the head !

I got my first parcel of OCA today @ $1.17. It seems quite a stable stock (unlike A2 lol... but it is still my biggest holding in my portfolio). I also have Sum too and thought about off load some of it and collect more of OCA instead.

[longy]

Well now, I presume you are referring to the tricky times in which we live (the last 10 days and the next 10)? I can't answer your question except to say 4 things

1. My experience with OCA and my own family member at the end of his life and the top quality OCA care unit he enjoyed for a short time, led me to form a very high opinion.

2. The quality of leadership at OCA ,who have backed themselves with very big investments, impresses.

3. The hammering by Mr Market of over priced stocks (especially where leaders have, unbelievably, dumped big shareholdings recently) is not so likely here for reasons Beagle so rightly states.

4. At $1.20 or so I remain exceptionally pleased re risk!! A milk company (that I never understood) at $14, well, that's quite a different story :)

Thanks Warren for sharing. I am looking for something a bit more steady and stable in invest in. The volatility of A2 has given me quite a few grumpy days and nights :)

[couta1]

Thanks Warren for sharing. I am looking for something a bit more steady and stable in invest in. The volatility of A2 has given me quite a few grumpy days and nights :) I know the feeling re A2. For those trying to decide which is the best retirement stock to invest in on a return basis, which company should double in value over the next couple of years or so? Count RYM and SUM out, TJ might also add ARV but I couldn't possibly comment on that.

[Beagle]

Average National Resale prices of units in OCA - correction.
Care suites $239K
Villas $381K
Apartments $509K.
(Source Results presentation that accompanies the annual result).
I presume the apartments are mainly in Auckland.

As you can see its the affordability and mainly being needs based that makes OCA more defensive.
Welcome aboard to new shareholders today. Weekend reading for you :- Results presentation http://nzx-prod-s7fsd7f98s.s3-website-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/attachments/OCA/321282/283328.pdf
Annual Report http://nzx-prod-s7fsd7f98s.s3-website-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/attachments/OCA/321283/283324.pdf

I topped up with more yesterday and today.

[Rot4ry]

OCA has strong reoccurring revenue streams via the care suites sold under the ORA contract structure. There is a coming "Grey Tsunami" and significant barriers to entry for competitiors. I believe that having a focus on integrated care and dementia care (and not just property sales) provides OCA a strong point of difference with guaranteed revenue streams year after year. This point of difference and strong cash flows will become clear to the market in the years to come as the care suits gain popularity. This stock is definitely a buy and hold. At $1.20 it is very cheap. I attach a link to an short article that supports my view. https://www.armillary.co.nz/wp-content/uploads/2018/09/Ageing-With-Dignity-Final.pdf

[Beagle]

OCA has strong reoccurring revenue streams via the care suites sold under the ORA contract structure. There is a coming "Grey Tsunami" and significant barriers to entry for competitiors. I believe that having a focus on integrated care and dementia care (and not just property sales) provides OCA a strong point of difference with guaranteed revenue streams year after year. This point of difference and strong cash flows will become clear to the market in the years to come as the care suits gain popularity. This stock is definitely a buy and hold. At $1.20 it is very cheap. I attach a link to an short article that supports my view. https://www.armillary.co.nz/wp-content/uploads/2018/09/Ageing-With-Dignity-Final.pdf

Welcome to the forum, an excellent first post.

[Rot4ry]

Thanks.....I am a "Long time listener, first time caller"

[Maverick]

Welcome to the forum, an excellent first post.
Bit of Beagle love here... I must say Mr Beagle that I really admire how welcoming you are to new guys.

Welcome to the forum RotAry.Thanks for the link. I've actually just started to focus specifically on just how the carebed side figures work out against the standard villa which we are all familiar with. This obviously will be the great strength (or not) for OCA.

[see weed]

364,000 drip feed into market so far today at 1.20c. Big question, how many more do they have to drip feed sell? 1m, 2m, 3m? Would be good if they showed their true colours and put the whole lot on. And then when that's finished, what's going to happen at 1.21c., another 50m or 100m? We want more bargains, 1.10c to 1.17c

[steveb]

364,000 drip feed into market so far today at 1.20c. Big question, how many more do they have to drip feed sell? 1m, 2m, 3m? Would be good if they showed their true colours and put the whole lot on. And then when that's finished, what's going to happen at 1.21c., another 50m or 100m? We want more bargains, 1.10c to 1.17c
the drip feed also kept the price pinned to $1.00 for a couple of months,it would be nice to find out what is going on?

[Beagle]

Bit of Beagle love here... I must say Mr Beagle that I really admire how welcoming you are to new guys.

Welcome to the forum RotAry.Thanks for the link. I've actually just started to focus specifically on just how the carebed side figures work out against the standard villa which we are all familiar with. This obviously will be the great strength (or not) for OCA.
Thanks, Beagle's like a bit of love https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=S2ZMLraGYR8


364,000 drip feed into market so far today at 1.20c. Big question, how many more do they have to drip feed sell? 1m, 2m, 3m? Would be good if they showed their true colours and put the whole lot on. And then when that's finished, what's going to happen at 1.21c., another 50m or 100m? We want more bargains, 1.10c to 1.17c

For what its worth my expectation is OCA will mark a bit of time around this sort of level. SP will build over time as investors see EPS growth and come to understand the excellent attributes of this business model.

[couta1]

the drip feed also kept the price pinned to $1.00 for a couple of months,it would be nice to find out what is going on? 95 million shares bought at $1.10, that's what.

[macduffy]

95 million shares bought at $1.10, that's what.

Absolutely! There's no point in trying to work out another party's motive in buying or selling. Enough to know that McQ's have the majority holding still. What they do with it is their business.

[see weed]

95 million shares bought at $1.10, that's what.
Drip feeding into 1.19c now? Maybe 90,000,000 to go? Maybe 1.18c soon? Maybe we all waiting for bargain 1.17c?

[Leftfield]

Drip feeding into 1.19c now? Maybe 90,000,000 to go? Maybe 1.18c soon? Maybe we all waiting for bargain 1.17c?

Big sale of 1.9m at 1.18c today. Maybe good news for those with an av hold price lower than that?

[couta1]

Big sale of 1.9m at 1.18c today. Maybe good news for those with an av hold price lower than that? As I've said before a few cents either way makes no difference in the big scheme of things with this stock, just focus on doubling your money within 3 years.

[Leftfield]

As I've said before a few cents either way makes no difference in the big scheme of things with this stock, just focus on doubling your money within 3 years.

Of course you are right Couta, it's just that I've taken a liking to little green arrows while I wait! ;)

[Rot4ry]

In your research look for operators that are offering care suites under an ORA contract structure. The DHBs are supportive as it provides additional capacity. This equals strong cash flows with reoccurring revenue streams. As Couta1 says "focus on the long term doubling your money in 3 years"

[Snow Leopard]

...just focus on doubling your money within 3 years.


https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=jL2DH-nKBeA

[couta1]

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=jL2DH-nKBeA You'd better go and tell that to all those dreamers who bought SUM in 2011 at $1.40 and within 3 years the price had doubled.Lol

[winner69]

As I've said before a few cents either way makes no difference in the big scheme of things with this stock, just focus on doubling your money within 3 years.

C’mon Couts ...only double in 3 years .....that’s only 24% pa

Oceania much better than that

[Snow Leopard]

You'd better go and tell that to all those dreamers who bought SUM in 2011 at $1.40 and within 3 years the price had doubled.Lol

Yes I was one of those, bought a lot for less than $1.50 sold them within the 3 years for more than $3.30 when you posted:

Hopefully your re entry ticket will cost you a whole stack more than your sale price:cool:

It didn't :p


Current SP for OCA is $1.19 we will not see $2.38 within three years.

And do not try to wiggle out of it by claiming you meant from listing.

Disc: Hold OCA, do not hold SUM

[couta1]

Yes I was one of those, bought a lot for less than $1.50 sold them within the 3 years for more than $3.30 when you posted:


It didn't :p


Current SP for OCA is $1.19 we will not see $2.38 within three years.

And do not try to wiggle out of it by claiming you meant from listing.

Disc: Hold OCA, do not hold SUM Nope I mean from now, I'd bet a Snow Leopard floor rug on it.

[warren]

Hello Snowy. Have you been to OCA Milford? Brownsbay,? etc . Have you looked at their results/ figures? Have you analysed Beagles very accurate material ? Even with the elephant about it’s not going to double. It’s going to treble and I’ve got a trainload to back my opinion !! The global pension funds are simply growing and they are monstrous and they must shelter those funds in blue chip stocks and this is certainly 1 of those

[Beagle]

Shares are on the most modest PE for this fast growing sector. Without even any PE expansion, (which I would argue they will certainly get as they continue to prove the robustness of their business model) all it takes is 26% compounding growth in underlying eps per annum to exactly double your money (if the PE stays the same). Then there's the gross dividend yield of about 5.5% (my forecast this year) and growing each year.

[Maverick]

Shares are on the most modest PE for this fast growing sector. Without even any PE expansion, (which I would argue they will certainly get as they continue to prove the robustness of their business model) all it takes is 26% compounding growth in underlying eps per annum to exactly double your money (if the PE stays the same). Then there's the gross dividend yield of about 5.5% (my forecast this year) and growing each year.

Ok.... just spent most of the day trying to understand even more of OCA- ORA machine. Talked to a very pleasant chap heavily involved in the Meadow bank development (He was just who any proud company should be represented by). Then spent the rest of the day doing a load of scribbles , calculations ,assumptions and guesses......here's is my result ....OCA is worth $1.50 July next year. Thats 11.7 eps at a Pe of 13. (25% share price increase from this year, no surprises there)

This based on:
-last years normalised profit, (which is sustainable.)
-add 2% on the care side of the business,
-add the DMF's of the new 2018 fy housing stock (obviously this will be mostly unrealised as nearly all new ora's will still be active for another three years or so- but the profit is still there).less 20 % for unoccupancy
-add new sales of 272 new units delivered in FY 2019 with sales margins at 20% ( I've also applied 20 % discount to allow for unoccupancy, mind you ,the 30 unsold units from fy 2018 should have become occupied by then to help fill the gap)


As much as ARV is also very good and SUM has ongoing great credentials at a now low PE, OCA is in a slightly different class. That is, more needs based , affordable (for the semi wealthy ) and essentially send customers off to their "happy hunting grounds" every 3-4 years at 8% p/a (allowing for six months unoccupancy between needs based guests.)Rather than a standard retirement villa which is about 7.5 years@ 4% p/a - The highlighted percentage figures are the DMF rates only

lots of assumptions and arbitrary percentages used which can easily be disputed by minds far smarter than mine but the guts of it all is rather stunning as an investment.

I do maintain the theorem ......you just can't have too many

[Rot4ry]

Take into account that Kiwisaver Funds are now in excess of NZD$50 Billion. That $50 Billion has to find a home somewhere (maybe a nice new unit in Meadowbank!) This is just my opinion but I don't think the fund managers / brokers have discovered OCA yet. I think the latest Macquarie sell down has raised some awareness. Once the fund managers and brokers understand it I think you will find this stock will more than double even triple. The unknown is how long it will take but it will get there. Just remember the fundamentals of this business and the Grey Tsunami that is coming......

[Beagle]

Ok.... just spent most of the day trying to understand even more of OCA- ORA machine. Talked to a very pleasant chap heavily involved in the Meadow bank development (He was just who any proud company should be represented by). Then spent the rest of the day doing a load of scribbles , calculations ,assumptions and guesses......here's is my result ....OCA is worth $1.50 July next year. Thats 11.7 eps at a Pe of 13. (25% share price increase from this year, no surprises there)

This based on:
-last years normalised profit, (which is sustainable.)
-add 2% on the care side of the business,
-add the DMF's of the new 2018 fy housing stock (obviously this will be mostly unrealised as nearly all new ora's will still be active for another three years or so- but the profit is still there).less 20 % for unoccupancy
-add new sales of 272 new units delivered in FY 2019 with sales margins at 20% ( I've also applied 20 % discount to allow for unoccupancy, mind you ,the 30 unsold units from fy 2018 should have become occupied by then to help fill the gap)


As much as ARV is also very good and SUM has ongoing great credentials at a now low PE, OCA is in a slightly different class. That is, more needs based , affordable (for the semi wealthy ) and essentially send customers off to their "happy hunting grounds" every 3-4 years at 8% p/a (allowing for six months unoccupancy between needs based guests.)Rather than a standard retirement villa which is about 7.5 years@ 4% p/a - The highlighted percentage figures are the DMF rates only

lots of assumptions and arbitrary percentages used which can easily be disputed by minds far smarter than mine but the guts of it all is rather stunning as an investment.

I do maintain the theorem ......you just can't have too many

Great post mate, no argument from me. Interestingly the national average value of a needs based care suite is just $236K. Pretty sad if someone can't afford that by the time they're 85.
Very defensive needs based business model and I like how they're also building a lot of nice apartments as a mix at many of their sites so people can seamlessly shift from an apartment to a care suite as their needs change. Yes SUM's lower PE is on my radar but we need to see evidence they can sell the 450 units per annum they're building and is this really the right time to be considering expanding into development in Australia ? I hear Melbourne real estate is really coming under pressure. I really like the points of difference that OCA is not considering expanding there, whereas SUM and MET are, and soon to be ARV too ? I especially like that 65% of the next 7 years of developments in N.Z. is already consented. With the difficulty of gaining resource consents now (newbies, please refer to my post #2022) its impossible to overstate the attractiveness of this aspect of the company. This company also has a good moat too, not easy by any means to build a stellar reputation for late stage care.

[Ggcc]

I am surprised to see this share down to these levels. I guess on no news this is bound to happen as the traders hop out. If it goes down further I may just have to top up.

[couta1]

I am surprised to see this share down to these levels. I guess on no news this is bound to happen as the traders hop out. If it goes down further I may just have to top up. I'm fully loaded, didn't expect it to go below $1.18 but there is still plenty of fat for those that bought at $1.10 under the recent placement to offload.PS-Holding up better than RYM today.

[dubya]

And the constant manipulation (downwards today) continues.
242 @1.16 every time it goes to 1.17.
I'd love to know the reasons for it .......... but as long as the price is substantially higher in another year or two I don't really care. :)

[Beagle]

October has been very tough for the whole market mate. Market as a whole is down ~ 6% this month which is pretty tough in terms of the fact that this month alone wipes out the majority of the NZX50 gain for the whole of 2018 to date. No wonder I feel like a dog chasing its tail trying to protect 2018 gains...its frustrating.
In terms of the retirement sector OCA holding up better than most and considerably better than RYM or SUM in percentage terms.

[Ggcc]

October has been very tough for the whole market mate. Market as a whole is down ~ 6% this month which is pretty tough in terms of the fact that this month alone wipes out the majority of the NZX50 gain for the whole of 2018 to date. No wonder I feel like a dog chasing its tail trying to protect 2018 gains...its frustrating.
In terms of the retirement sector OCA holding up better than most and considerably better than RYM or SUM in percentage terms.
I would not be surprised that OCA hits A lower number within the next couple of weeks. I am a longterm holder and am hoping on this so I can buy more. It will bounce back up eventually, but the traders are hopping out and we also have to know what Macquarie is up to with their mountain of shares

[longy]

October has been very tough for the whole market mate. Market as a whole is down ~ 6% this month which is pretty tough in terms of the fact that this month alone wipes out the majority of the NZX50 gain for the whole of 2018 to date. No wonder I feel like a dog chasing its tail trying to protect 2018 gains...its frustrating.
In terms of the retirement sector OCA holding up better than most and considerably better than RYM or SUM in percentage terms.

I think a lot of people me included are feeling the pinch from Mr market lately. It looks like we to expect bit more volatility on the market ahead. Time like these I think best invest base on the basis of fundamentals. It is the approach that I am taking at the moment and hopefully I could stay away from the screen but that is so hard to do.

I have more in OCA than Sum now.... finger cross!

[couta1]

I would not be surprised that OCA hits A lower number within the next couple of weeks. I am a longterm holder and am hoping on this so I can buy more. It will bounce back up eventually, but the traders are hopping out and we also have to know what Macquarie is up to with their mountain of shares The next Macs sell down won't be until the SP is in the $1.30s IMO so if you get them at a discount you would still need to pay considerably more than the current price.

[Ggcc]

I am feeling that these prices are long term bargains, but alas I don’t think these are the bottom prices. The market short term looks nasty

[tuaman]

Dammmm.Back to 98c soon again?

[Chinesekiwi]

I just picked up a wad at 1.15 and them watched a sweet drop to 1.13.

Have confidence in this business long term so won't cry just yet. More inclined to set aside another dollop and wait a while longer until the market shrugs off it's current mood.

Still looking green but red isn't too many cents off.

[Maverick]

I just picked up a wad at 1.15 and them watched a sweet drop to 1.13.

Have confidence in this business long term so won't cry just yet. More inclined to set aside another dollop and wait a while longer until the market shrugs off it's current mood.

Still looking green but red isn't too many cents off.

Unbelievable value at $1.15 . I`m thinking next year it will make 11.7 cps (post #2199) so that's a PE of 10.2

I even let a few more HLG go today to get some more powder for OCA at $1.15. Right now it might not seem so smart but 3 years from now it will be.

[Ggcc]

Down to $1.12.......... should I be patient or greedy while others are fearful.

[RupertBear]

Down to $1.12.......... should I be patient or greedy while others are fearful.

I fear it will go lower....I sold out yesterday....

[sb9]

I fear it will go lower....I sold out yesterday....

Might test the $1.10 mark by the looks...

Disc- not holding just watching from sidelines.

[couta1]

I fear it will go lower....I sold out yesterday.... Unless you are planning on buying them back then far too impulsive Rupert, this one's a long term keeper and the pick of the sector.

[RupertBear]

Unless you are planning on buying them back then far too impulsive Rupert, this one's a long term keeper and the pick of the sector.

Yes I hear you Couta, it was probably a mistake but will hopefully get a chance to buy back again

[hogie]

Topped up at $1.13 ... at this stage this is one of the few I'd still consider as having less volatility and more potential :)

[Maverick]

Topped up at $1.13 ... at this stage this is one of the few I'd still consider as having less volatility and more potential :)

Somehow,amongst the carnage today it almost seems like a small victory to finish about where we started.

Who was crazy enough to sell for1.12 cents? I remind myself that whatever Wall st does, those 84 year olds will be 85 next year and that ever growing ~4% divi will keep rolling in regardless of the share price.

[winner69]

It’s Sunday so allowed to be bored. Couldn’t resist clicking on an ad / link while reading the Herald about 6 people in hospital after the Auckland marathon

All about how to profit from the grey tsunami ...wow

Signed up and you get a FREE REPORT which three stocks to invest in and make huge profits from this grey tsunami that’s coming

Guess whose missing

https://signups.moneymorning.co.nz/X917U806

[Beagle]

It’s Sunday so allowed to be bored. Couldn’t resist clicking on an ad / link while reading the Herald about 6 people in hospital after the Auckland marathon

All about how to profit from the grey tsunami ...wow

Signed up and you get a FREE REPORT which three stocks to invest in and make huge profits from this grey tsunami that’s coming

Guess whose missing

https://signups.moneymorning.co.nz/X917U806

Read a few of their reports. You've got to sift through a lot of dross to find a nugget of info that's worth anything. BUY MET up to $10 was a classic example of the caliber of the information they're producing. By the way, of the five retirement companies there is only one that's not in a confirmed downtrend as measured by a clear break down through the 100 day MA. Wonder if that outfit have ever heard of technical analysis ?

[trader_jackson]

Guess whose missing

https://signups.moneymorning.co.nz/X917U806

is it Arvida?

[winner69]

is it Arvida?

Hey t_j who in their right mind would write screeds about Arvida ...except the gurus at Forbar

[trader_jackson]

Hey t_j who in their right mind would write screeds about Arvida ...except the gurus at Forbar

True, and the one analyst that covers ARV... pretty boring and lonely stuff writing about a dog

[winner69]

True, and the one analyst that covers ARV... pretty boring and lonely stuff writing about a dog

My neighbours bowling mates were very impressed with Village at the Park when they had a look around. So impressed they bought some Oceania shares (ditching their Turners shares) .....and then I told him it was an Arvida Village.

They are bit down in the dumps with their Oceania investment .....another losing investment for them.

[Blue Skies]

My neighbours bowling mates were very impressed with Village at the Park when they had a look around. So impressed they bought some Oceania shares (ditching their Turners shares) .....and then I told him it was an Arvida Village.

They are bit down in the dumps with their Oceania investment .....another losing investment for them.


Can we get a heads up whenever your 'neighbours bowling mates' are about to buy their next shares, seems even more reliable predictor than technical analysis of an approaching downtrend. :)

[winner69]

Can we get a heads up whenever your 'neighbours bowling mates' are about to buy their next shares, seems even more reliable predictor than technical analysis of an approaching downtrend. :)

I told you all when they piled into Oceania at 120 plus ...bit peeved they are now under water

[percy]

I told you all when they piled into Oceania at 120 plus ...bit peeved they are now under water

They will also miss out on Turners FULLY IMPUTATED divie on Tuesday.

[minimoke]

They will also miss out on Turners FULLY IMPUTATED divie on Tuesday.That is nothing to get excited about. SP is lowest its been in two years.

[winner69]

That is nothing to get excited about. SP is lowest its been in two years.

Consolation prize mini

[percy]

That is nothing to get excited about. SP is lowest its been in two years.

SP does not concern me,as I and too happy enjoying the fully imputed divies.Paid quarterly is fantastic.Divie looks as though it will keep increasing by about 10% pa.
For me divies are the main prize now days.I love them.TRA is my largest holding so the divies are rather juicy.

ps.Brought and then added to my OCA as their divie was the best in the retirement sector.Just a bugger it is not fully imputed.Quess you can't have it all ways.

[Beagle]

OCA dividends may be partially imputed from FY20 onward. I think this is a company you could be fairly confident would increase dividends by a double digit percentage figure per annum going forward in my opinion.

[Ggcc]

Having a fully imputed divie does not concern me if the share price is tanking. You are just paying your own money back to yourself...? Give me stocks that grow and give a little dividend. Better for the getting ready to retire moment. Percy I fully understand you are at a later stage of your life and you need an income for the little ones and yourself. You can sell shares that grow and maybe twice to four times a year, give yourself what you need for spending money

[couta1]

SP does not concern me,as I and too happy enjoying the fully imputed divies.Paid quarterly is fantastic.Divie looks as though it will keep increasing by about 10% pa.
For me divies are the main prize now days.I love them.TRA is my largest holding so the divies are rather juicy.

ps.Brought and then added to my OCA as their divie was the best in the retirement sector.Just a bugger it is not fully imputed.Quess you can't have it all ways. Yes I love my divvies also but have been seriously skunked recently by near six to one by my AIR holding, however HLG will be paying me a nice big one in December coupled with it's defensive nature over the last while I'm pretty happy overall, also happy with my XXXOS sized holding in OCA.

[percy]

Having a fully imputed divie does not concern me if the share price is tanking. You are just paying your own money back to yourself...? Give me stocks that grow and give a little dividend. Better for the getting ready to retire moment. Percy I fully understand you are at a later stage of your life and you need an income for the little ones and yourself. You can sell shares that grow and maybe twice to four times a year, give yourself what you need for spending money

I have set myself up very well for retirement.The market has been very kind to me .For mainly tax reasons I now seldom trade.Buy to hold forever.
My dividends are on a very good capital base thanks to being successful.
My experience is that companies that have the capacity, and do in fact pay increasing fully imputed dividends, will in time see their sp rise.
So if my shares halved in value tomorrow it would have no affect on my income.What would affect me would be companies reducing their dividend.
I hold GNE,HGH [HBL],MCK,MEL,MVN,OCA,PGW,SPK and TRA.plus holdings in a number of "interesting" companies which will either enjoy great growth or will be dead ducks.I see no reason for any of the above companies not increasing their dividends over the next few years,therefore I see the capital value of my portfolio doubling or tripling over the next three to five years..

[Leftfield]

I have set myself up very well for retirement.The market has been very kind to me .For mainly tax reasons I now seldom trade.Buy to hold forever.
My dividends are on a very good capital base thanks to being successful.
My experience is that companies that have the capacity, and do in fact pay increasing fully imputed dividends, will in time see their sp rise.
So if my shares halved in value tomorrow it would have no affect on my income.What would affect me would be companies reducing their dividend.
I hold GNE,HGH [HBL],MCK,MEL,MVN,OCA,PGW,SPK and TRA.plus holdings in a number of "interesting" companies which will either enjoy great growth or will be dead ducks.I see no reason for any of the above companies not increasing their dividends over the next few years,therefore I see the capital value of my portfolio doubling or tripling over the next three to five years..

A timely (and good) article echoing your advice may help those sweating at the recent 'correction.' https://www.washingtonpost.com/business/economy/how-i-learned-to-love-a-good-downturn-in-the-stock-market/2018/10/26/266d5b56-d70d-11e8-83a2-d1c3da28d6b6_story.html?utm_term=.53a2dcd5c906

[Beagle]

A timely (and good) article echoing your advice may help those sweating at the recent 'correction.' https://www.washingtonpost.com/business/economy/how-i-learned-to-love-a-good-downturn-in-the-stock-market/2018/10/26/266d5b56-d70d-11e8-83a2-d1c3da28d6b6_story.html?utm_term=.53a2dcd5c906

"If you are retired or close to it, you should have already diversified into some cash and fixed income to avoid the market swings". Interesting little excerpt. Cash and fixed income investments serve to dampen down market volatility.

[dobby41]

My experience is that companies that have the capacity, and do in fact pay increasing fully imputed dividends, will in time see their sp rise.

The share price has to rise really, otherwise the % dividend would become huge (which will encourage people to buy and the SP will go up).

[winner69]

Read a few of their reports. You've got to sift through a lot of dross to find a nugget of info that's worth anything. BUY MET up to $10 was a classic example of the caliber of the information they're producing. By the way, of the five retirement companies there is only one that's not in a confirmed downtrend as measured by a clear break down through the 100 day MA. Wonder if that outfit have ever heard of technical analysis ?

That moneymorning stuff wasn’t all dross. Suppose that view depends is who you love the most.

Well anyway they wrote about 3 companies to surf the grey tsunami and make heaps and Oceania wasn’t one of them ...thought that interesting if nothing else.

[777]

The share price has to rise really, otherwise the % dividend would become huge (which will encourage people to buy and the SP will go up).

That can be fixed my reducing the dividend. Possible in a downturn.

[percy]

The share price has to rise really, otherwise the % dividend would become huge (which will encourage people to buy and the SP will go up).

You are onto it.
Exactly right.
Buy companies that have the capacity to pay increasing fully imputed divies.

[couta1]

Director buying a few more at $1.14.

[Mudfish]

Director buying a few more at $1.14.

Hey Couta, I'm terrible at reading buy sell declarations. Do you read it as Alan Isaac has bought 55000 for himself and his wife? Or is it 110000? And does it look like he is spending his own cash? Just trying to be clear.

[macduffy]

I think it says Isaac Family Trust bought 50,000 shares and Mrs Isaac bought 5,000 shares

Interesting it appears as if he had no shares prior to this.

As he has skin in the game as they say he is no longer truly independent.

The way I read the disclosure Alan Isaac bought 50,000 shares for the trust and his wife bought 5,000. Mr Isaac holds 110,000 shares in his own name.

[winner69]

The way I read the disclosure Alan Isaac bought 50,000 shares for the trust and his wife bought 5,000. Mr Isaac holds 110,000 shares in his own name.

As usual Mac you are correct ....he personally has had an interest previously and the trust and the wife now have some as well

[Mudfish]

As usual Mac you are correct ....he personally has had an interest previously and the trust and the wife now have some as well

Cheers for tidy up. Interesting sellers price blocking has just been lifted. The day could be interesting? Maybe a connection with director purchase timing but probably not.

[couta1]

Someone took the handbrake off.;)

[whatsup]

Someone took the handbrake off.;)

YEH first time in a month.

[minimoke]

Someone took the handbrake off.;)
Nice to see. Looks liek same person might have popped of to ATM and SML and done the same.

[Beagle]

Someone took the handbrake off.;)

Wonder who has been the extremely naughty dog loading up the sell side with heaps of shares and then somehow they magically disappear :ohmy:

[couta1]

Wonder who has been the extremely naughty dog loading up the sell side with heaps of shares and then somehow they magically disappear :ohmy: I could not possibly comment on such unspeakable things such as this.

[Scrunch]

Wonder who has been the extremely naughty dog loading up the sell side with heaps of shares and then somehow they magically disappear :ohmy:

Not sure it's sellers disappearing. There's been over a million traded today which helps clear the sell side as it's occurred with an increased price.

[Beagle]

Not sure it's sellers disappearing. There's been over a million traded today which helps clear the sell side as it's occurred with an increased price.

Hmmm...1.8 million now.

[minimoke]

Nice to see all the sellers at $1.20 snapped up this morning. Onwards and upwards seems to be the trend.

[winner69]

Just in case we forget how wonderful Oceania is the awesome potential it has

http://nzx-prod-s7fsd7f98s.s3-website-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/attachments/OCA/326631/290269.pdf

Trying hard to get more Aussie investors ...that’s good

[Maverick]

Just in case we forget how wonderful Oceania is the awesome potential it has

http://nzx-prod-s7fsd7f98s.s3-website-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/attachments/OCA/326631/290269.pdf

Trying hard to get more Aussie investors ...that’s good

I know some of us appear besotted with this company but their PR execution is simply superb. It's hard not to like them.
But ultimately it`s the figures that will tell the real story. It`s hard not to be besotted with the figures so far either.

AND there's more.....it`s just such a great feeling knowing we are enabling the "first in class "care of our well healed seniors.

[Beagle]

Just in case we forget how wonderful Oceania is the awesome potential it has

http://nzx-prod-s7fsd7f98s.s3-website-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/attachments/OCA/326631/290269.pdf

Trying hard to get more Aussie investors ...that’s good

That'll give your bowling club mates some much needed assurance. Haven't read it yet but on a really quick skim I liked page 9 "Current projects on track" and this bit
"Earl is a qualified Lawyer and Chartered Accountant, and was awarded Fellowship status from the New Zealand Institute of Chartered Accountants in 2014. He also volunteers on the Boards of a number of charities, providing necessary governance and a significant contribution to the strategic direction of organisations involved in the provision of community services".
They only hand out fellowship status to the very best.
I hear Earl is a good Christian man too just like Chris Luxon is. We're in very good hands in my opinion. Disc: Remains my #1 investment position. Happy holder.

[winner69]

Wonder whether we would be saying and thinking the same wonderful things if the OCA share price was already 2 bucks or even more .....behavioural finance would suggest no we wouldn’t

Then again it might be like SUM in its early days of listing ....2 bucks a bit expensive ...3 bucks wow ......5 bucks a bit stretched .....6 bucks getting cheap ....7 bucks being recognised by market ....8 bucks still seems cheap and will be same as Ryman one day ......sub 7 bucks ...hmmm

That’s what’ll happen to Maverick, a long term holder I reckon.

Beagle, well I reckon he’ll think SUM will be the better bet one day and switch back.

[Beagle]

Wonder whether we would be saying and thinking the same wonderful things if the OCA share price was already 2 bucks or even more .....behavioural finance would suggest no we wouldn’t

Then again it might be like SUM in its early days of listing ....2 bucks a bit expensive ...3 bucks wow ......5 bucks a bit stretched .....6 bucks getting cheap ....7 bucks being recognised by market ....8 bucks still seems cheap and will be same as Ryman one day ......sub 7 bucks ...hmmm

That’s what’ll happen to Maverick, a long term holder I reckon.

Beagle, well I reckon he’ll think SUM will be the better bet one day and switch back.

Beagle's are obsessed with food mate so you can rely on me to bark out which has the bigger prospective feed coming, (after I've position myself directly in front of the bowl) lol

That's funny what you suggested about behavioral science and a lot of its true. Many punters think any stock just over $1 is cheap and its a good time to buy but thankfully in OCA's case there's compelling fundamental's behind that. Its all about valuation and sector trends in my view. OCA is a needs based later stage caregiver on a forward PE of just ~ 11 that's well positioned to meet a real shortage of quality late stage care demand. The vast majority of SUM's units by value are independent living where people make discretionary lifestyle choices for lifestyle reasons not necessarily based on needs per se but often based on perceptions of future needs, (their simply isn't the urgency factor). Actually two good complimentary stocks if one believed the Auckland market was robust and healthy enough to give Aucklanders the complete freedom to make discretionary purchases into independent living units. SUM need a gangbusters quarter and I have quite SUM reservations about whether that's possible in the current market environment.

[Maverick]

That’s what’ll happen to Maverick, a long term holder I reckon.

Beagle, well I reckon he’ll think SUM will be the better bet one day and switch back.


...."I`ll fire when I`m God damn good and ready".....Maverick

[Beagle]

What if Kelly McGillis was asking :D

https://www.marketscreener.com/OCEANIA-HEALTHCARE-LTD-34790010/consensus/
4 analysts - average rating Outperform.

[value_investor]

Some great slides in this presentation highlighting the aging population issue, of which we are still very early in the game. Imo, the aging population issues through a shortage of housing and superannuation crunch is coming soon. The cost of super to the govt has increased 26% in the past 4-5 years, of which very little can be attributed to inflation.

The uptake in builds in the past financial results again emphasized in the report which is pleasing to see. It will be interesting to see where that EPS rate is at when the HY results are out (probably early next year).

[Beagle]

Some great slides in this presentation highlighting the aging population issue, of which we are still very early in the game. Imo, the aging population issues through a shortage of housing and superannuation crunch is coming soon. The cost of super to the govt has increased 26% in the past 4-5 years, of which very little can be attributed to inflation.

The uptake in builds in the past financial results again emphasized in the report which is pleasing to see. It will be interesting to see where that EPS rate is at when the HY results are out (probably early next year).

Note that new units built are heavily weighted to the second half. Figures from N.Z. shareholders presentation, (from memory) about 83 units scheduled to be built in the first half and 190 in the second half. Expect underlying eps to reflect the change in the build rate.

[Baa_Baa]

Imo that's all well and truly priced in, maybe to some extent thanks to the incessant ramping here. "Can't have too many", well, yeah OK, but get a grip, this isn't accidental millionaire territory. It's a long play, give it 10-20 maybe 30 years. Patience is a scarce commodity.

Give it time and when the 4 unknown analysts with no measurable pedigree or provenance have consensus on Buy rather than currently Hold or Outperform, that might be the next leg up. Who knows really? This stock may not be too far ahead of itself, but it's close to par value, maybe a bit above, likely to see a prolonged sideways effect while reality catches up with future potential.

Disc, yes I have some but I'm not believing nondescript analysts, nor am I in the rampers camp. I take it as I see it and patience with perseverance are key. This is no quick win.

[couta1]

Imo that's all well and truly priced in, maybe to some extent thanks to the incessant ramping here. "Can't have too many", well, yeah OK, but get a grip, this isn't accidental millionaire territory. It's a long play, give it 10-20 maybe 30 years. Patience is a scarce commodity.

Give it time and when the 4 unknown analysts with no measurable pedigree or provenance have consensus on Buy rather than currently Hold or Outperform, that might be the next leg up. Who knows really? This stock may not be too far ahead of itself, but it's close to par value, maybe a bit above, likely to see a prolonged sideways effect while reality catches up with future potential.

Disc, yes I have some but I'm not believing nondescript analysts, nor am I in the rampers camp. I take it as I see it and patience with perseverance are key. This is no quick win. Not a quick win but will double and triple your return before RYM and SUM do going forward from now IMO.

[trader_jackson]

it seems OCA's presentation was a good advert for ARV and even MET

[Maverick]

Baabaa , with all due respect , It sure isn't an accidental millionaires thing. I recon you could put in about 400k now and you should be a millionaire in about 3-4 years , that won't be an accident.
As far as the ramping thing goes , I actual get really annoyed by those accusations levelled by anyone to anyone.
Firstly , the market doesn't give a flying fig about what people say on this forum,
Secondly, it disrespects the obvious intelligent people ,who offer for no personal gain, their opinions and expertise.
Keep it coming folks, whatever your thoughts, "the intelligence of the group is more than any individual" ( even if you think OCA is An overpriced fad)

[minimoke]

Firstly , the market doesn't give a flying fig about what people say on this forum,

Dead right - that one always makes me laugh. As If Mr Market is busy glued to Share trader Forum and reacts every time there is a positive post on something. (any thoughts of ramping can be put to bed at AGM time - notice how forum comments are invariably ignored)

[winner69]

I know some of us appear besotted with this company but their PR execution is simply superb. It's hard not to like them.
But ultimately it`s the figures that will tell the real story. It`s hard not to be besotted with the figures so far either.

AND there's more.....it`s just such a great feeling knowing we are enabling the "first in class "care of our well healed seniors.

Having been involved in preparing those sort of documents for corporates over the years I do worry when punters say ‘their PR execution us simply superb’ ......seduced by pretty slides, the advertising works

But maverick you do seem a sensible type when you add ‘it’s the figures that will tell thevreal story’

Hope so.

[macduffy]

When I asked him, Mr Market replied "What's Sharetrader?"

;)

[minimoke]

When I asked him, Mr Market replied "What's Sharetrader?"

;)
Thats because Mr Market lives in the Big End of Town and doesn't care much for we minnows slumming it at the other end.

[Beagle]

Imo that's all well and truly priced in, maybe to some extent thanks to the incessant ramping here. "Can't have too many", well, yeah OK, but get a grip, this isn't accidental millionaire territory. It's a long play, give it 10-20 maybe 30 years. Patience is a scarce commodity.

Give it time and when the 4 unknown analysts with no measurable pedigree or provenance have consensus on Buy rather than currently Hold or Outperform, that might be the next leg up. Who knows really? This stock may not be too far ahead of itself, but it's close to par value, maybe a bit above, likely to see a prolonged sideways effect while reality catches up with future potential.

Disc, yes I have some but I'm not believing nondescript analysts, nor am I in the rampers camp. I take it as I see it and patience with perseverance are key. This is no quick win.


I agree with your last two sentences but the rest of it I couldn't disagree more. You have completely missed the point over the next 6 years their business model will be radically transformed. It only takes 26% compound earnings growth over 3 years (1.26 x 1.26 x 1.26) for underlying eps to double and fundamentally this is already the cheapest stock in this sector by quite some margin. I think there is an excellent chance the SP will double in the next three years but if you can't understand the fundamental growth drivers, the business transformation process or the math's and consequently have only a modest stake...

[trader_jackson]

hey what's going on... Things only getting worse for OCA share price after the presentation was put up... people getting a bit over the "we're the best by miles" preso attitude to the whole care side of things maybe? (yet Arvida and Ryman, maybe even sum others not listed are better)
no worries long term as results should do the talking although can't change accounting standards to boost things up, they already played this card

[winner69]

hey what's going on... Things only getting worse for OCA share price after the presentation was put up... people getting a bit over the "we're the best by miles" preso attitude to the whole care side of things maybe? (yet Arvida and Ryman, maybe even sum others not listed are better)
no worries long term as results should do the talking although can't change accounting standards to boost things up, they already played this card

You saying OCA accounts / reporting are as obtuse as Arvida’s?

[Maverick]

You saying OCA accounts / reporting are as obtuse as Arvida’s?
Very Acute Winner ... nice!

[trader_jackson]

You saying OCA accounts / reporting are as obtuse as Arvida’s?

I don't recall arv making an accounting change that resulted in a one off benefit to the bottom line to beat pds forecasts but I could be wrong...

[Baa_Baa]

[snip] ... but if you can't understand the fundamental growth drivers, the business transformation process or the math's and consequently have only a modest stake...

I can hardly believe you're so rude when you have no idea of my circumstances or situation (you even gave me a negative reputation comment, good grief!). My post was pretty simple, I own OCA and you have no idea how many, I have researched the company extensively as I do with all my investments, I am quite capable of doing my own FA and TA without help from you or anyone else, I reckon it's been ramped here to a bit above fair value, and no one knows who the analysts are that you quote or their pedigree that you refer to frequently when it suits you and dispute when it doesn't.

OCA is a fine stock, it just won't happen overnight. Why make it personal Roger, I thought you were above that.

[Joshuatree]

Thats pretty vindictive and sick imo, giving a negative reputation esp for what i think is a sensible post. Ive had it before from him too(and positive ones). On Hot Copper you can only give positive thumbs ups, way better imo. Tells one a lot about how people can really be. Incessant ramping alright but no surprises there, consistency :).



I posted this on 26/09/18
My investment advisor/ brokers hasn't changed their metrics
1 year t/p av of $1.18 from 3 analysts with 1 buy and 2 holds

4traders 2 ratings , both hold t/p $1.19
Buying at the IPO of $.79 which is still my average has been the optimal risk reward way to go imo. Will only top up if some sort of black swan event drops the mkt and OCA s/p a lot."

Ties in with what BB is saying. Nothing has changed imo except the worsening global stockmarket sentiment.


https://www.sharetrader.co.nz/images/misc/quote_icon.png Originally Posted by Baa_Baa https://www.sharetrader.co.nz/images/buttons/viewpost-right.png (https://www.sharetrader.co.nz/showthread.php?p=737077#post737077)
Imo that's all well and truly priced in, maybe to some extent thanks to the incessant ramping here. "Can't have too many", well, yeah OK, but get a grip, this isn't accidental millionaire territory. It's a long play, give it 10-20 maybe 30 years. Patience is a scarce commodity.

Give it time and when the 4 unknown analysts with no measurable pedigree or provenance have consensus on Buy rather than currently Hold or Outperform, that might be the next leg up. Who knows really? This stock may not be too far ahead of itself, but it's close to par value, maybe a bit above, likely to see a prolonged sideways effect while reality catches up with future potential.

Disc, yes I have some but I'm not believing nondescript analysts, nor am I in the rampers camp. I take it as I see it and patience with perseverance are key. This is no quick win.

[Beagle]

Nothing sick or vindictive about negative rep, its just the opposite of positive rep, please get a grip on reality for goodness sake. I thought it was a very poor post so marked it as such as I'm perfectly entitled to do and I'm not the only one who felt that way looking at the posts from others after your post Baa Baa. Pretty sure I have given you both positive rep for worthwhile posts when its warranted.

Some people on here take this whole ramping thing far too seriously. All those that chose to come along to the recent Auckland gettogether had a lot of fun with overt positivity about OCA based on the compelling fundamental's relative to the sector. "It's a long play, give it 10-20, maybe 30 years" For goodness sake what value does this add ? Everyone knows the tailwinds in this sector. What people want to understand is how their earnings are going to grow in the next few years relative to other sector participants and why ? I've made a number of lengthy dissertations on that which were not "incessant ramping" a term I take offence too considering the thought and effort that went into that especially having used up one of my evenings off to go and meet Earl Gasparich, hear his presentation to the N.Z. shareholders association and talk with him at length after the meeting.

Finally, I cannot recall reading one decent analysis on OCA from either of you comparing the fundamental's to the other retirement players and clearly articulating the positive and negative aspects of each share relative to the others. I'd love to actually read some of your wonderful insights as to why you think this is fully or overpriced when others in the sector are on far higher PE's with much lower growth. I am all ears waiting for some of your special analysis. You are of course most welcome to your own opinion but it would be a refreshing change to see you back that opinion up with some clearly articulated analysis, (I promise not to call it down ramping) :p

[couta1]

Hey JT, you say over on Hotcopper you can only give positive thumbs up yet often l have noticed that posters treat each other like crap over there and get away with it. The overall etiquette on here is far superior and long may it stay that way.

[winner69]

Very Acute Winner ... nice!

Good one maverick ....though rather abstruse for most

[Leftfield]

While Maverick and Winner have been exploring all the angles of investing in OCA, I've been observing and thankfully have a small holding which is currently in profit. That said, in watching the daily trades and depth of trades there seems to be some serious unloading and possible SP manipulation going on at the moment. At the risk scoring of a possible demerit point akin to Baa Baa, my gutometer says this one could sink lower in the short term with possible support levels at 115c and 110c. DYOR.

[Maverick]

While Maverick and Winner have been exploring all the angles of investing in OCA, I've been observing and thankfully have a small holding which is currently in profit. That said, in watching the daily trades and depth of trades there seems to be some serious unloading and possible SP manipulation going on at the moment. At the risk scoring of a possible demerit point akin to Baa Baa, my gutometer says this one could sink lower in the short term with possible support levels at 115c and 110c. DYOR.

I agree Leftfield, the share price does seem to be subject to more manipulation once again.(i.e the oversized "sell" plonked on at 1.20 a few days ago- in the usual $50k lumps).
After watching this share trading like a hawk for nearly a year now I now accept that this just is part of the OCA trading style. I figure Macquarie is currently gearing up for another placement so the big boys are up to their usual bag of tricks.
Seen it loads of time now and just accept it for what it is without much thought these days. No long term damage is done.
More importantly , while the games are being played , those builders are busy beavering away constructing units and care suites on our behalf for our upcoming tenants, bless their souls.

[bull....]

have to agree the charts showing a possible lower high , which is bearish at the moment. negated if it goes above all time high of 1.23 - 24.

if people want to see what happens when property market goes soft read the aveo agm presentation aog is the code and your get an idea what happens to these retirement stocks when property market turns. a big risk just to be aware off.

[percy]

"Time is the friend of a great company the enemy of a poor company."
I try to invest in great companies,so I don't have to worrying about daily/weekly/monthly or even yearly share prices.
I look at the sector the company is in,the directors,the Chair,the CEO,management and directors share holdings,the company's balance sheet,debt,cash flow,do they do what they say they will do,and do they have the capacity to pay increasing dividends.
OCA pass all my requirements with flying colours.
I have taken my position, and look forward to enjoying the fruits of my research in years to come.

[couta1]

"Time is the friend of a great company the enemy of a poor company."
I try to invest in great companies,so I don't have to worrying about daily/weekly/monthly or even yearly share prices.
I look at the sector the company is in,the directors,the Chair,the CEO,management and directors share holdings,the company's balance sheet,debt,cash flow,do they do what they say they will do,and do they have the capacity to pay increasing dividends.
OCA pass all my requirements with flying colours.
I have taken my position, and look forward to enjoying the fruits of my research in years to come. Very well said Percy, my wife and I are both intimately aquainted with this company and I have a rather large holding in it for that very reason, I made the mistake of selling out of RYM and SUM way too early and have no intention of making the same mistake 3 times in a row.

[Beagle]

"Time is the friend of a great company the enemy of a poor company."
I try to invest in great companies,so I don't have to worrying about daily/weekly/monthly or even yearly share prices.
I look at the sector the company is in,the directors,the Chair,the CEO,management and directors share holdings,the company's balance sheet,debt,cash flow,do they do what they say they will do,and do they have the capacity to pay increasing dividends.
OCA pass all my requirements with flying colours.
I have taken my position, and look forward to enjoying the fruits of my research in years to come.

Agree 100%. There are many aspects to this company I prefer over the other sector players, only some of which I have shared on here. I don't feel the need to have investments in the other sector players at this point in time. Sometimes diversification within a sector for the sake of it is counter productive and this is one of those occasions in my opinion.

[winner69]

Agree 100%. There are many aspects to this company I prefer over the other sector players, only some of which I have shared on here. I don't feel the need to have investments in the other sector players at this point in time. Sometimes diversification within a sector for the sake of it is counter productive and this is one of those occasions in my opinion.

Make sure you hold for years through thick and thin then ......and don’t look at that MA100 line which it is flirting with these days .....in other words don’t let your short/medium term trading habits get the better of you. Keep behaving like an ‘investor’

[Joshuatree]

Beagles a trader surely. And he pumps the hell out of a stock when buying/selling .Need to trade more to pay more tax. Not for me. I prefer to follow the brokers consensus on this and won't be pumping or spruiking this or buying at these prices. gGving negative feedback esp to baabaas sensible, balanced and reasonable post says it all to me imo.

[couta1]

Beagles a trader surely. And he pumps the hell out of a stock when buying/selling .Need to trade more to pay more tax. Not for me. I prefer to follow the brokers consensus on this and won't be pumping or spruiking this or buying at these prices. gGving negative feedback esp to baabaas sensible, balanced and reasonable post says it all to me imo. I wouldn't follow any broker consensus, most of them are just coin tossers, your own research and a tuned in Gutometer is all you need.

[Beagle]

Beagles a trader surely. And he pumps the hell out of a stock when buying/selling .Need to trade more to pay more tax. Not for me. I prefer to follow the brokers consensus on this and won't be pumping or spruiking this or buying at these prices. gGving negative feedback esp to baabaas sensible, balanced and reasonable post says it all to me imo.

You're perfectly entitled to your own opinion but as I said yesterday it would be a refreshing change if it was backed up with some well articulated analysis.
Please by all means put me on your ignore list if you find my posts too irksome for your tastes.

[couta1]

You're perfectly entitled to your own opinion but as I said yesterday it would be a refreshing change if it was backed up with some well articulated analysis. People that put all their faith in brokers consensus don't do analysis, they like to be spoon fed.Lol

[minimoke]

People that put all their faith in brokers consensus don't do analysis, they like to be spoon fed.LolSome people obviously come to a share trading forum and take a post as gospel and base their buy sell on that. Good luck with that strategy as well.

[Joshuatree]

You're perfectly entitled to your own opinion but as I said yesterday it would be a refreshing change if it was backed up with some well articulated analysis.
Please by all means put me on your ignore list if you find my posts too irksome for your tastes.

I never put anyone on ignore and i cant remember giving negative feedback.

Hot copper removed the thumbs down feedback for a very good reason, including tit for tats, and fighting on the threads. and annoying other posters.

I also have never invited other people to give negative feedback on others as you have done.

I also have no need to feel good about myself with thumbsup or strokes i dont graft for them like some do on here.

I dont need to influence people to feel good about myself

I dont pump the hell out of a stock just because ive bought it or am actually selling it.

[BlackPeter]

I never put anyone on ignore and i cant remember giving negative feedback.

Hot copper removed the thumbs down feedback for a very good reason, including tit for tats, and fighting on the threads. and annoying other posters.

I also have never invited other people to give negative feedback on others as you have done.

I also have no need to feel good about myself with thumbsup or strokes i dont graft for them like some do on here.

I dont need to influence people to feel good about myself

I dont pump the hell out of a stock just because ive bought it or am actually selling it.

Any chance we could talk on this thread again about OCA?

cheers.

[Snow Leopard]

Purr-sonally I still regard it as early days on this one, and have factored in a conservative overall growth rate for the next few years.

Based on that I have a current value of $1.23 and a one year forward value of $1.30.
The dividends at about 4% make it slightly better than a term deposit but with the added bonus of, hopefully, a long term appreciation in underlying value.

I own as many of these as I am comfortable with at present and I am not looking to add any more.

I also have a similar size holding in ARV, but nothing of the rest.


DYOR

[bull....]

oca pretty much been going side ways last 5 mths if it falls below 1.15. westpac out yesterday saying property will fall after 2020 so these retirement stocks look like they are in the last leg of there up cycle if aus property market is anything to go by and retirement and propert related stocks in aus are being taken to the cleaners.

[couta1]

oca pretty much been going side ways last 5 mths if it falls below 1.15. westpac out yesterday saying property will fall after 2020 so these retirement stocks look like they are in the last leg of there up cycle if aus property market is anything to go by and retirement and propert related stocks in aus are being taken to the cleaners. Your wrong again trying to compare the Aussie and NZ retirement sectors, last leg of the up cycle for OCA, yeah right, as the song goes its only just begun with this one. PS-OCA is more defensive than RYM and SUM, try to remember that.

[bull....]

Your wrong again trying to compare the Aussie and NZ retirement sectors, last leg of the up cycle for OCA, yeah right, as the song goes its only just begun with this one. PS-OCA is more defensive than RYM and SUM, try to remember that.

in nz i dont think anyone believes property ever goes down more than a few mths , but when interest rates go up guess we will all find out how it affects everything? due to the last 10yrs of low int rates and nz high debt levels

[couta1]

in nz i dont think anyone believes property ever goes down more than a few mths , but when interest rates go up guess we will all find out how it affects everything? due to the last 10yrs of low int rates and nz high debt levels OCA has a large care based moat which is driven by need not fluctuating property prices, they have a range of affordable Care suites and Apartments for those selling houses with lower values.

[Joshuatree]

Very well said Percy, my wife and I are both intimately aquainted with this company and I have a rather large holding in it for that very reason, I made the mistake of selling out of RYM and SUM way too early and have no intention of making the same mistake 3 times in a row.

Maybe its time to be transparent and disclose what roles you and your wife play in OCA. You dont have to be concise but i think you owe it to us as you've played that card twice or more in an insider way (knowledge wise). So some clarity on level of management ,thanks.

[bull....]

OCA has a large care based moat which is driven by need not fluctuating property prices, they have a range of affordable Care suites and Apartments for those selling houses with lower values.

we all know theres no money to be made in care , the money to be made is in people exiting and the resales. resales values are affected by property prices. read the aog agm report about there resales in a soft market.

wont go out of business , but clearly only a growth business if roperty is going up.

[couta1]

Maybe its time to be transparent and disclose what roles you and your wife play in OCA. You dont have to be concise but i think you owe it to us as you've played that card twice or more in an insider way (knowledge wise). So some clarity on level of management ,thanks. I don't owe you anything and perhaps you should be grateful that I take the time to share info from the inside of the industry rather than demanding something which one would be foolish to put on an open forum.

[couta1]

we all know theres no money to be made in care , the money to be made is in people exiting and the resales. resales values are affected by property prices. read the aog agm report about there resales in a soft market.

wont go out of business , but clearly only a growth business if roperty is going up. There is money in care if the facility is over a certain number of beds(80 beds plus)along with careful capex management coupled with keeping the wages to revenue ratio within a certain level. PS-The care suite model that OCA has greatly assists with this as every facility will eventually have care suites added.

[Joshuatree]

I don't owe you anything and perhaps you should be grateful that I take the time to share info from the inside of the industry rather than demanding something which one would be foolish to put on an open forum.

Correct you owe me nothing , i was thinking of the collective here. Certainly not grateful but appreciate it when you share something useful ,being in the game. My point was you work for the business and i understand your wife does too but higher up. It would give more credibility to what you share for the whole forum,thats all. Can understand the sensitivity involved there though with your positions. I guess we are lucky to have someone sharing their insights in this industry. I accept that you do work there .

[minimoke]

Correct you owe me nothing , i was thinking of the collective here. Certainly not grateful but appreciate it when you share something useful ,being in the game. My point was you work for the business and i understand your wife does too but higher up. It would give more credibility to what you share for the whole forum,thats all. Can understand the sensitivity involved there though with your positions. I guess we are lucky to have someone sharing their insights in this industry. I accept that you do work there .

This is a forum, not an investment statement. There is no need for a poster to declare anything. Responsibility falls solely on the reader to do their own research and from there decide if a post is reliable and therefore useful.

[Maverick]

we all know theres no money to be made in care , the money to be made is in people exiting and the resales.

wont go out of business , but clearly only a growth business if roperty is going up.
Sorry Bull.. cant agree with the money being mostly made in resale.
To me that component of profit is paper only and just keeps the asset up with inflation. A very important investment aspect over the long term.
The companies never actually realise that gain anyway as nothing ever gets sold, just re rented.
I see the bulk and stable income coming from the churn of care suites etc every 3-4 years at 10 % p/a in DMFees. Then let's add on some actual weekly profits from the business of nursing. Couta is saying there "is" profitability with "scale " (I AM grateful to you Couta for bothering to share) and (from a great friend who owns a rest home) "occupancy rates."
What makes the model stunning is that The 10% p/a DMFees are returned on the occupiers money as they pay full price upfront. So that's free leverage. Many of us will know profits ( and losses) magnify a lot when that happens.
As well stated here time and again, the 2 key OCA points of differences is that they are "needs based" and very "affordable".

The only ingredients we need now are a growing ageing population with a few bucks (big tick) and patience. (That's up to each individual)

[percy]

I would like to record my thanks to Couta1 for sharing his "inside the industry" knowledge with us.
I have owned AVN and INA in Australia, and MET [a very long time ago] RYM and SUM in NZ.
A very rewarding sector for me.
I currently only own OCA in this sector.
I know the sector rather well,my mother having lived in a retirement village, but Couta1's posts have been very helpful for me to gain greater understanding of the whole sector.
From his posts I can easily work out he "knows his stuff",and must be "the tea lady."....[lol]

[Maverick]

I would like to record my thanks to Couta1 for sharing his "inside the industry" knowledge with us.
I have owned AVN and INA in Australia, and MET [a very long time ago] RYM and SUM in NZ.
A very rewarding sector for me.
I currently only own OCA in this sector.
I know the sector rather well,my mother having lived in a retirement village, but Couta1's posts have been very helpful for me to gain greater understanding of the whole sector.
From his posts I can easily work out he "knows his stuff."
here here, I second that.

[Beagle]

Sorry Bull.. cant agree with the money being mostly made in resale.
To me that component of profit is paper only and just keeps the asset up with inflation. A very important investment aspect over the long term.
The companies never actually realise that gain anyway as nothing ever gets sold, just re rented.
I see the bulk and stable income coming from the churn of care suites etc every 3-4 years at 10 % p/a in DMFees. Then let's add on some actual weekly profits from the business of nursing. Couta is saying there "is" profitability with "scale " (I AM grateful to you Couta for bothering to share) and (from a great friend who owns a rest home) "occupancy rates."
What makes the model stunning is that The 10% p/a DMFees are returned on the occupiers money as they pay full price upfront. So that's free leverage. Many of us will know profits ( and losses) magnify a lot when that happens.
As well stated here time and again, the 2 key OCA points of differences is that they are "needs based" and very "affordable".

The only ingredients we need now are a growing ageing population with a few bucks (big tick) and patience. (That's up to each individual)


I would like to record my thanks to Couta1 for sharing his "inside the industry" knowledge with us.
I have owned AVN and INA in Australia, and MET [a very long time ago] RYM and SUM in NZ.
A very rewarding sector for me.
I currently only own OCA in this sector.
I know the sector rather well,my mother having lived in a retirement village, but Couta1's posts have been very helpful for me to gain greater understanding of the whole sector.
From his posts I can easily work out he "knows his stuff",and must be "the tea lady."....[lol]

+1 Great posts. Good humour regarding the tea lady comment :)
Average stay in a care suite is 2.5 years (source Earl Gasparich comments at N.Z. shareholders presentation)
I also only own OCA in this sector as I see them as far more defensive than the other sector participants and with at least as good growth prospects, probably better.
OCA also have the best metrics (lowest PE and I am forecasting north of 5% dividend yield for FY19. They are also trading at just a fraction above NTA).
Purr fect long term hold I reckon.

[RupertBear]

I would like to record my thanks to Couta1 for sharing his "inside the industry" knowledge with us.
I have owned AVN and INA in Australia, and MET [a very long time ago] RYM and SUM in NZ.
A very rewarding sector for me.
I currently only own OCA in this sector.
I know the sector rather well,my mother having lived in a retirement village, but Couta1's posts have been very helpful for me to gain greater understanding of the whole sector.
From his posts I can easily work out he "knows his stuff",and must be "the tea lady."....[lol]

Add me to the greatful list as well, thanks for your insights Couta always much appreciated :)

[dubya]

I'm grateful to ALL the posters on this forum, and especially those that post on this thread as OCA is the only retirement sector company I have shares in, and it is also the largest holding I have in a single company by far. So thanks one and all.

I phoned OCA a week ago to make some enquiries for a family member, and as I haven't seen it mentioned on this thread, thought I would post what I was told regarding deferred management fees.

Individual accommodation (apartments, villas etc) the DM fee is 10% pa calculated and charged on a monthly basis (max 30% over three years).
With Care Suites the DM fee is 15% for the first year (fixed, as in no refund if the person only stays a week), then 10% for the second year and 5% for the third year. The second and third years are calculated and charged on a monthly basis.

[Beagle]

Individual accommodation (apartments, villas etc) the DM fee is 10% pa calculated and charged on a monthly basis (max 30% over three years).
With Care Suites the DM fee is 15% for the first year (fixed, as in no refund if the person only stays a week), then 10% for the second year and 5% for the third year. The second and third years are calculated and charged on a monthly basis.

That's the secret to their very robust cash flow business model right there along with the higher churn ratio than other market participants.

[Snow Leopard]

...With Care Suites the DM fee is 15% for the first year (fixed, as in no refund if the person only stays a week), then 10% for the second year and 5% for the third year. The second and third years are calculated and charged on a monthly basis.

Is the rate for the fourth and subsequent years also 5%?

Or do they throw them out at that point?

[couta1]

Is the rate for the fourth and subsequent years also 5%?

Or do they throw them out at that point? Umm there is no DM fee after the third year as the 30% has been accounted for, service fees are paid from moving in until moving out at either the Hospital or Resthome level depending on which level of care the individual is receiving whilst in the care suite.

[Snow Leopard]

The 2018 accounts show quiet clearly that at the EBIT level and allowing for the 'change in fair value of investment property' that OCA is profitable...

...to the tune of about $10.5M a year.

However normalising for the 'impairment of property, plant & equipment' line indicates a drop of over $5M between 2017 and 2018. Could be a concern but I will be looking at the HY2019 (and beyond) results with interest on that one rather than worrying now.

How much of a price that people are prepared to pay for occupation rights going forward and the correlation between that and NZ housing prices is yet to be determined for OCA.

That is something else to look forward too. :mellow:

[Snow Leopard]

Umm there is no DM fee after the third year as the 30% has been accounted for, service fees are paid from moving in until moving out at either the Hospital or Resthome level depending on which level of care the individual is receiving whilst in the care suite.

Tak.

They should definitely throw them out then :).

[couta1]

Tak.

They should definitely throw them out then :). HaHa yes excepting that a large % of occupants would have entered the afterlife by the end of the 3 year period, meantime they or the Govt continue to pay between 50- 60k per year in service fees to OCA.

[warren]

I have been drawn to this thread as I have found Mr Couta and Mr Beagle's input really 1st class. I thank them very much indeed. I especially like the effort of these folks to get out into the business and meet the Directors and the managers. I have believed in good people all my business life and shunned bad people (of whom there have been 000's). I can feel one hell of a correction in NZ re prices of all sorts and I am fully confident that OCA's good capable people and their large quality aged care will see me right as a large investor. I rest very easy at night and will continue to do so. $1.16 what a bargain.

[minimoke]

. $1.16 what a bargain.That was my thinking this morning when I picked a few more up at $1.15

[Maverick]

I`m getting quite keen to see the RYM (this Friday)and ARV (next Tuesday)results coming up. It will be good to have a fresh update from the sector. Plus I'm picking it might conjure up some enthusiasm and get us over $1.20 again. (not that it matters long term but it will feel nice... like pissing in your wetsuit)

[davflaws]

Can I offer you a couple of asparagus rolls?

[winner69]

)nly one bad day from breaching that all important 200MA line (may have dipped below today but hard to see on yahoo)

That could result a rush to the exits in the next day or two ...seems to trigger a few sells from punters on here

[Baa_Baa]

)nly one bad day from breaching that all important 200MA line (may have dipped below today but hard to see on yahoo)

That could result a rush to the exits in the next day or two ...seems to trigger a few sells from punters on here

I feel happy enough with accumulating this one into its lows, where ever that might end up, despite the TA, as I have no intention of selling it.

That's a bit strange, coming from a predominantly capital sensitive, TA informed active investor. But long term yield improves with every lower entry price.

Go figure. It's the long game with this company, and ... insert everything Beagle has said about the FA, tailwinds etc etc.

Jmho.

[Beagle]

I feel happy enough with accumulating this one into its lows, where ever that might end up, despite the TA, as I have no intention of selling it.

That's a bit strange, coming from a predominantly capital sensitive, TA informed active investor. But long term yield improves with every lower entry price.

Go figure. It's the long game with this company, and ... insert everything Beagle has said about the FA, tailwinds etc etc.

Jmho.

Winner just yanking the Beagle's tail and ears I reckon. Just brought up the chart and 100 day MA is $1.15 and no breakdown through that yet. ANZ securities super charts showing 180 day MA is only $1.09 so nowhere close to a breakdown through 200 day MA unlike SUM other companies.

[Baa_Baa]

Winner just yanking the Beagle's tail and ears I reckon. Just brought up the chart and 100 day MA is $1.15 and no breakdown through that yet. ANZ securities super charts showing 180 day MA is only $1.09 so nowhere close to a breakdown through 200 day MA unlike SUM other companies.

Ha, you nailed that. Winner the teaser, the tempter, the sentiment manipulator, (no disrespect) would be good to post some real T/Analysis to back either his/her assertions. Or why it matters with this stock,

Actually, who cares about a 200 DMA if great buying opportunity is presented that boosts yields over a long term horizon?

If I could buy this at half the price because the TA took I there, I would. It'd help to make up for being a bit late to the party.

[bull....]

the break of 1.15 will be bearish

[winner69]

the break of 1.15 will be bearish

...doesn’t matter with this stock bull....

[macduffy]

We seem to spend an inordinate amount of time agonising over OCA as it trades between $1.15 and $1.20. I think we all know the drill here - McQ still owns a big, controlling stake; they'll probably sell down again sooner or later; as Beagle says, it's a long term game. Enough?

[Brain]

I would like somebody to tell me what is so magical about the 200 day moving average. What about a 250 or 275 day moving average?

[winner69]

I would like somebody to tell me what is so magical about the 200 day moving average. What about a 250 or 275 day moving average?

Good question ..I don’t really get it either...will be interesting what replies we get if any.

The 100 day moving average is quite popular as well.