ARV - Arvida Retirement Villages

[The Grinch]

What's the sentiments?

It's been a while since I reviewed/paid attention to the retirement village listings - felt all the positivity has been well priced in - and had to laugh when I saw this potential IPO. Fantastic idea perfect time to sell a piece of your pie, not only are people paying good money for new equities but everyone loves this growth industry. Why not piggy back of Rymans & Co's good work?

Will have a gaze over the prospectus. but don't expect it to be cheap, will be interesting to see who steps up to be CEO.

Cheers
TG

http://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/news/article.cfm?c_id=3&objectid=11325559

[winner69]

What's the sentiments?

It's been a while since I reviewed/paid attention to the retirement village listings - felt all the positivity has been well priced in - and had to laugh when I saw this potential IPO. Fantastic idea perfect time to sell a piece of your pie, not only are people paying good money for new equities but everyone loves this growth industry. Why not piggy back of Rymans & Co's good work?

Will have a gaze over the prospectus. but don't expect it to be cheap, will be interesting to see who steps up to be CEO.

Cheers
TG

http://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/news/article.cfm?c_id=3&objectid=11325559

What conclusions you come to?

Others interested in reading the prospectus
http://www.business.govt.nz/companies/app/service/services/documents/BD6CD09AC189E25B91426F2CE2AF781D

[Harvey Specter]

What conclusions you come to?

Others interested in reading the prospectus
http://www.business.govt.nz/companies/app/service/services/documents/BD6CD09AC189E25B91426F2CE2AF781Dnote this is the pre ipo prospectus - ie to existing village owners to approve the consolidation. Once approved the ipo prospectus will be launched I assume.

I haven't read but should be some good market info in there.

[MAC]

Many thanks Grinch for the doc.

An uncannily similar sized operation to SUM, very similar gross and net margins, similar FV adjustments on a percentage basis also. It will be interesting to compare relative valuations closer to the time.

Haven’t yet assessed comparative forward growth rates. As an opportunity it may well come down to just that and their ambitions to build flat out, I've been disappointed by SUM not increasing their growth rate further, there ambitions have waned a little IMO.

Both are dividend paying, wouldn't buy either into a growth portfolio now, perhaps as income stock though.

It’s an interesting time to IPO though, six months ago might have been a better sweet spot for them and the sector.

[Beagle]

I expect the whole sector to lose more altitude from previous lofty level's as the fundamental laws of supply and demand play themselves out. Looking for another circa 20% altitude loss for RYM and then buy the market leader :D

[Goldstein]

What conclusions you come to?

Others interested in reading the prospectus
http://www.business.govt.nz/companies/app/service/services/documents/BD6CD09AC189E25B91426F2CE2AF781D

Interesting chart on page 9. SUM has quite a different asset distribution than the rest with a lot higher percentage of units.

As far as Hercules goes, their villages are currently run by various managers/owners. Hercules would have to quickly stamp managing practices on each to ensure a good standard of care, etc. I see it as a bit risky.

[The Grinch]

Hey W69,

Unfortunately haven't been following this industry for a while so a bit behind on it all. Did squiz through the investor prospectus and do a little follow up on Ambrose, Bill Mcdonald and co etc which peaked my interest a little bit.

Thanks MACs for your summary. Does anyone know more about Grant Adamson, Rodgers and Co ltd, Bill Mcdonald etc other than what a google search throws up?
- McDonalds Linkedin pitch seems to put him as well qualified for the position.
- Couldnt find much on Grant Adamson but what I did was pretty positive.
- Rodgers and Co seem like a good outfit and nice to know Ambrose has very intimate knowledge of the NZ industry.

Will have to wait and see what sort of price there thinking of :sleep:

http://www.rodgers.net.nz/our-services/aged-care-services
http://www.harnesslink.com/News/Prominent-owner-Grant-Adamson-dies
http://nz.linkedin.com/pub/bill-mcdonald/10/9a6/253

[winner69]

- Couldnt find much on Grant Adamson but what I did was pretty positive.

-http://www.harnesslink.com/News/Prominent-owner-Grant-Adamson-dies


[
I don't think you chose the right words here mate

Didn't realise Grant had died even thought it was a year ago ..... he was a good bloke .... really sad

[Casino]

I expect the whole sector to lose more altitude from previous lofty level's as the fundamental laws of supply and demand play themselves out. Looking for another circa 20% altitude loss for RYM and then buy the market leader :D

I'm looking to strike as well if there is a market tumble.

[percy]

Merging 19 privately owned retirement villages into a single publicly owned company should prove challenging.19 different computer systems,19 different resident's contracts,19 different payrolls,19 different sets of standards,and 19 different sets of owners.Very challenging!!!
I think it shows that stand alone retirement villages can not compete with the likes of MET,RYM,and SUM.Compliance and other costs are now too high for them.
Yes more choice for the investor, having more listed retirement sector companies to chose from,but the fact remains the demand is,and will continue to be greater than supply.
I think the Ben Hurst referred to in the article is a member of The Hurst Pratley Group, who own a number of very good villages.

[couta1]

I'm not into this listing although it could be worth a stag for you staggers. Ryman and Summerset are number 1 and 2 in terms of development of retirement villages in NZ and I can't see that changing any time soon so I'm sticking with them. I can't wait for a couple of years to come when Ryman and Sum start getting more of their excellent landbanks cranked up and on the build, the current dripping taps will start to flow.

[percy]

couta1.
When you get back from South Africa I think the Hercules CEO might have a nice little earner for you.
"Just pop down to ChCh and tell Richie and the boys, the new computer system they installed at Park Lane, at huge ,is of no value to the group going forward,so Hercules will not be able to include it in the settlement valuation."
May be you will be safer in South Africa.!! lol.

[noodles]

Merging 19 privately owned retirement villages into a single publicly owned company should prove challenging.19 different computer systems,19 different resident's contracts,19 different payrolls,19 different sets of standards,and 19 different sets of owners.Very challenging!!!

But isn't that one of the key short-term profit drivers? I.e reduction in the back office costs.

What I found interesting was the number of care beds as a percentage of total beds. They won't be a development company (like RYM and SUM). They won't rely (as much) on development and resale margin. Instead, it is the care fees. As such, execution risk should be much lower. They won't be as sensitive to NZ house prices (a good thing IMO).

I'd expect a proper dividend given they are not in a position to expand (no land bank).

Valuation will be key, but I'm not discounting Hercules yet.

[PartyPooper]

I personally prefer the way Hercules generates profit from its care network and doesn't focus on villa sale like RYM or SUM even though I hold plenty of both.

I'd like to see Hercules pay out 50-60% profit as a dividend and use remaining profit for take over and buy outs of other privately owned hospitals and Retirement Homes.

Like others I'll wait for a better valuation. Might have to pick up some so I can kick back with Richie and the lads at the AGM's =P

[couta1]

I personally prefer the way Hercules generates profit from its care network and doesn't focus on villa sale like RYM or SUM even though I hold plenty of both.

I'd like to see Hercules pay out 50-60% profit as a dividend and use remaining profit for take over and buy outs of other privately owned hospitals and Retirement Homes.

Like others I'll wait for a better valuation. Might have to pick up some so I can kick back with Richie and the lads at the AGM's =P
PP generating profit from care centers is a tough road indeed around 50 beds is the break even point but even larger facilities of around 100 plus care beds do it tough when occupancies are down such as the winter just gone and remember the industry is currently underfunded to the tune of 500 million per annum by the Govt. At least Hercules have villas and apartments to help subsidize things during the tough times but still their current model falls short of Rym and Sum which are primarily property developers. I would think any significant dividends would be slow coming forward during the first year or two due to costs of the merger but hey with the All Black feel good factor many will take a punt based on that alone. Could be worth a small holding but the current listed companies are going to drive this sector for a long time to come particularly Ryman IMHO.

[winner69]

If those proforma accounts are anything to go by no cash for dividends ...2014 operating cashflow all spent on properties/plant

And all 2014 profit from fair value adjustments

[GoldenStag]

When is this going?

[silu]

http://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/news/article.cfm?c_id=3&objectid=11359999

I'm going to stay on the sideline for this one. The challenges to merge so many operations seems just too costly and difficult. Most likely oversubscribed though.

[couta1]

http://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/news/article.cfm?c_id=3&objectid=11359999

I'm going to stay on the sideline for this one. The challenges to merge so many operations seems just too costly and difficult. Most likely oversubscribed though.
Yep 80 Million sought out of which 70 million will be used to repay debt, 4.35 million to cover offer costs leaving only 5.25 million for growth Hmmm ????

[Beagle]

Buy the best of breed instead. Enough said.

[percy]

Buy the best of breed instead. Enough said.

Sage advice.

[Joshuatree]

This thread should really be changed to ARVIDA THE LATEST IPO. The Grinch may be able to change it or Mods. i see someone has tried to start a thread with the correct name ;messy.

[BFG]

I hear that Arvida/Hercules may be being put together as an exit strategy for the Adamson family, who have large holdings in several retirement villages. I can see the listing as a means to increase liquidity amongst a burgeoning retirement sector by packaging all the villages up together into a new company and floating it on the NZX. I suspect this is in part due to the change in interests after Mr Adamson passed last year.

The Adamsons and some of the original “facility investors” get a small amount of cash out now and the rest comes free clear of escrow in May 2016.*Investors need to be wary of this overhang (think SUM!)

The company looks good, but I see it is not being pitched as a growth stock despite the sector being in an enormous demographically aided growth phase. Rather they intend to pay around 60%-80% of earnings out as dividends to susposedly make up for this.

All in all, some goods and bads, and the price might be attractive at IPO. :)

[Harvey Specter]

Good summary BFG.

I see this as different to the current retirement stocks which are really property development companies whereas this one is a property owning company with a steady rental income. Growth I imagine will be via acquisition of other villages at a discount to what it's worth to them.

[couta1]

With a heavy reliance on care beds to produce profit at least for the first few years I'd be taking the dividend carrot with a grain of salt.

[winner69]

At least Chris Lee says what thinks. Very pointed piece this week on Arvida. I'll paste the start. Go to http://www.chrislee.co.nz/taking-stock to read the rest.

Bit precious on copyright but I am sure he wouldn't mind a wider audience. Some of us could even become customers.

Abstract -

THE All Blacks have had yet another stellar year, and a few of them may well get a Xmas bonus when a rest home provider, Arvida, is listed at an improbable price in the days before Xmas.

Arvida did not attract a full subscription at the highest price sought but it has raised all the money it required at a price close to the full amount, despite a low level of interest from North Island retail investors.

Arvida is largely based in the South Island and has no presence in Auckland so the low levels of interest from northern investors was entirely predictable.

That geographically-based interest might also have been reflected by the decision of Arvida to use a Dunedin-based retail broker to market the company. Anointed by the wide South Island base of retail clients who have allowed Forsyth Barr to make their investment decisions, the Dunedin broker was a logical choice for an issue that was small and unlikely to attract much fund manager focus.

So the successful fund-raising will bring smiles to the handful of All Blacks who have invested in the concept believing a public float would bring them riches. If it holds its issue price till the escrow period ends I expect those rugby blokes with good advisors will then be seeking diversification, perhaps switching their gains into Ryman, Metlife or Summerset whose business models are very different and in my view much more sustainable.

[percy]

Thanks for the link Winner69.
I think the article is so good because Chris Lee has been involved in a retirement village for a very long time,and has given sage advice.

[dingoNZ]

I can't see anything on the NZX site anymore re this, isn't it supposed to list on the 18th?

Still going ahead?

[GoldenStag]

I can't see anything on the NZX site anymore re this, isn't it supposed to list on the 18th?

Still going ahead?

Listing as ARV. It is on the main board upcoming listings bottom of page here:
https://www.nzx.com/markets/NZSX

Looking forward to it.

[troyvdh]

Good evening ..Am I alone in thinking "oh dear"...the allure of Dan et al has not worked...by all accounts Mr Lee is a smart man indeed.I accept the fact with the divs promised that this IPO was never going to excite folk much looking forward to a growth story.
I indeed could be proved wrong here...hopefully .
Me hopes that the 3 million dollar a year man has received more advice than from 1 source.
As an aside can anyone comprehend the fun of intrigating the workings in multiple rest homes .....cheers

[BFG]

Pretty sure all of us were convinced not to buy in based on the debates put up here (yes, my god, they actually come in handy!!!).

Why buy 3rd/4th best in the sector when it is considered expensive @ IPO price when you can buy 1st/2nd best coming off a dip? The demand was never really there from us small guys imho.

[couta1]

Pretty sure all of us were convinced not to buy in based on the debates put up here (yes, my god, they actually come in handy!!!).

Why buy 3rd/4th best in the sector when it is considered expensive @ IPO price when you can buy 1st/2nd best coming off a dip? The demand was never really there from us small guys imho.
Yep and with Oceania having a very good chance of being sold as a going concern rather than listing (Quadrant and Infratil are two that have expressed an interest plus one other) this will be one very lonely puppy amongst the pit bulls.

[trader_jackson]

Is it really that bad? It seems it was 'fairly valued' when listed, but I'm not sure if overpriced would be the word to use, with a gross dividend at about 6%, growth opportunities (naturally with retirement villages such as potential acquisitions and expansion of existing facilities) and a forecast PE ratio of about 16 for 2016 and 2017, it seems pretty 'cheap' compared to many NZX listed companies at the moment. Despite 2 "market updates" basically confirming everything is on tract/ok, the share price has continued to fall. So despite announcement nothing adverse and having seemingly good fundamentals, can anyone explain to me why the share price has fallen?

[couta1]

Is it really that bad? It seems it was 'fairly valued' when listed, but I'm not sure if overpriced would be the word to use, with a gross dividend at about 6%, growth opportunities (naturally with retirement villages such as potential acquisitions and expansion of existing facilities) and a forecast PE ratio of about 16 for 2016 and 2017, it seems pretty 'cheap' compared to many NZX listed companies at the moment. Despite 2 "market updates" basically confirming everything is on tract/ok, the share price has continued to fall. So despite announcement nothing adverse and having seemingly good fundamentals, can anyone explain to me why the share price has fallen?
Simple answer is that this company is not a property development company like the others listed and doesn't have the same growth potential as the others at this point in time.

[trader_jackson]

Yes I suppose, will be interesting to see how their results this Thursday compare to prospectus, in particular how costs (of integration etc) are tracking

[trader_jackson]

https://www.nzx.com/files/attachments/213940.pdf (https://www.nzx.com/files/attachments/213940.pdf)

Looks promising

[trader_jackson]

Interesting that they have been in a trading halt for almost 5 hours, starting at 10:02 (just after market open?), and no hints dropped as to why... http://www.stuff.co.nz/business/69633199/arvida-shares-put-in-a-trading-halt

Potentially something big, probably an acquisition... (should be announced soon I would think...)

[trader_jackson]

https://www.nzx.com/companies/ARV/announcements/266076

5.5% dividend with very impressive profit growth forecasts? Forget about over-priced Ryman and Summerset, I wonder how long it is going to take people to start realizing the potential of Arvida...
(and very high quality villages from what I have heard)

[couta1]

https://www.nzx.com/companies/ARV/announcements/266076

5.5% dividend with very impressive profit growth forecasts? Forget about over-priced Ryman and Summerset, I wonder how long it is going to take people to start realizing the potential of Arvida...
(and very high quality villages from what I have heard)
Don't get too excited TJ these are pure care facilities, you can't compare this company to Ryman and Summerset, no where near the same potential at this point.

[trader_jackson]

Well there are development potential, and serviced apartments, but yes not quite the thousands of Ryman and Summerset, but still, I think the market is treating Arvida like a dog despite them beating most forecasts and made (what I believe) is a very, very good purchase.

If anything, it shows that management have the ability to identify quality opportunities and negotiate a good deal (8.4x seems dam cheap vs 18x average P/E on NZX 50...)

But yes, like all the 'bigger boys', Arvida is new to the block and as the share price shows, extreme caution has clearly been exercised

[noodles]

Don't get too excited TJ these are pure care facilities, you can't compare this company to Ryman and Summerset, no where near the same potential at this point.
You are correct that you can't compare. But is growth by eps acretive acquisition better or worse than growth by development?

I don't know the answer in this case.

[couta1]

You are correct that you can't compare. But is growth by eps acretive acquisition better or worse than growth by development?

I don't know the answer in this case. Growth by development is far better due to higher overall profit margins and ongoing resale profits.

[couta1]

Exactly. Care and dementia facilities aren't significant money makers compared to ILUs. This is one of the reasons that Summerset's continuum of care is not as exhaustive as some competitors.
Nice dig there at the end NG:cool:

[couta1]

Thanks. Glad to see you don't actually disagree! :t_up:
I agree that Sum have smaller care centres than Ryman because thats a known fact but then Ryman have much bigger villages with lots more units to sell aye:t_up:

[Master98]

just read through IPO prospects, all market updates until recent acquisition of three auckland villages, I do feel this is a promising company with steadily income and a defensive share compare to peers which heavily rely on new development,at 84c i have to say it's not just cheap, it is very cheaper, not expect the share price will boost in short term because escrow will not expire until May 30 2016, but not bother me as i intend to hold longer term, at least the dividend return still a little better than earning interest, do notice someone feeding duck at 84c thats why methinks this puppy could be manipulated, the sp suddenly drop from middle 90s to 85c just before the acquisition announced which new shares issued at 84c.

[trader_jackson]

I have said this for a while, but people are blinded by SUM (and others) and how great the resales etc are... yet ARV is actually much more attractive from a traditional point of view (Forward PE ratio, dividend yield)... ARV are a "new" company, and despite management delivering very good outcomes so far (eg successful village integration and acquisition of a couple of very very high quality villages, as original hinted to in the prospectus and various market updates), people are already writing it off, such as the assumption that they will always be stuck in what is apparently a seemingly extremely low-margin and outdated care based portfolio (even though this is only part of their business)

I would even be tempted to say the ARV will be the best performing retirement stocks on the NZX over the coming year.

[percy]

I would recommend you read the link Winner69 posted on Ryman thread.Post 2411.
RYM and SUM [I don't follow MET] do not need to raise capital to grow,while ARV do.
Work out why they don't need to raise capital.

[Master98]

I would recommend you read the link Winner69 posted on Ryman thread.Post 2411.
RYM and SUM [I don't follow MET] do not need to raise capital to grow,while ARV do.
Work out why they don't need to raise capital.

percy can you tell me how much capital HNZ already raised to grow? raising capital is not a bad thing, is it?

[couta1]

trader Jackson I'm scratching my head after reading your above post thinking your naievity of the understanding of the whole retirement sector model has blinded you more than the blind you referred to in your post.

[trader_jackson]

To be honest with you, I am young, I therefore most likely naive... But when you have two well respected institutions taking a substantial holding (Artemis Investment Management, and ANZ New Zealand Investments), and more importantly Paul (a director) buying 82k shares, Peter (a director) buying another 27k shares, and Susan (a director) buying 100k shares... showing 3 separate directors all clearly have immense confidence to 'splash out', some serious money (of there own), most of which has been done recently.

I have yet to see 3 directors of the other companies snapping up the share this fast and in such quick succession...

And are we forgetting the "extremely high margin" 380 apartment units Arvida has?

[trader_jackson]

Thank you percy for posting that, I did have a brief read over it, and found it interesting that ARV has about 1/3 of SUM's retirement village units, so given this, and ARV having about 1/4 market cap of SUM, I am guessing, based purely off a resale/development model only (so excluding the major care facilities ARV has, or any future acquisitions of apartments), I am guessing ARV must work off a different, much much lower margin, resale model for their units?

Not sure if anyone has seen this yet... its a bit old, but might help... https://www.nzx.com/files/attachments/215474.pdf

[percy]

I would recommend you read the link Winner69 posted on Ryman thread.Post 2411.
RYM and SUM [I don't follow MET] do not need to raise capital to grow,while ARV do.
Work out why they don't need to raise capital.

Here goes Example only;
Ryman raise $50mil to build a retirement village themselves.
They build it and sell the rights for people to "occupy" the village for $50mil.
So they have all their capital back,which they can use to build another village,and keep on repeating ,and repeating ,and repeating..
In the meantime they own each village without debt.
So after 10 years they own say 10 villages,generating fees and income and capital gain on $500mil of villages on$50mil capital.!
But wait there's more.Each time they have resales,they pick up both a deferred fee and a capital gain.And this capital gain is on money Ryman has recycled.
So after 10 years Ryman are generating fees and capital gains on $500mil of villages not the $50mil they raised to list.
ARV,example,Raise $50mil.To grow to $500mil they need to raise $450mil.
Just keep reading the link...

[trader_jackson]

Another positive announcement today... https://www.nzx.com/companies/ARV/announcements/267420

Despite the share price being close to, and sometimes below the offer price (during the SPP), somehow the $5m SPP was still oversubscribed, shows the confidence investors have in ARV... not surprising giving it has a 6.1% gross dividend, and capital growth (that will most likely come with an unusually low PE of 14.9 - and fittingly with these metrics one broker has a price target of $1.09 on it)

Regardless of if the rest of the retirement sector is more focused on greenfield development and sales associated with that (as percy explains above - lets hope the housing market doesn't go sour...) these valuation metrics are promising for any company (I would think?) I see the directors and institutional investors (eg ANZ) have caught onto this "future winner", I wonder when the rest of the market will...

What is the differences for brownfeild development (what ARV does) vs greenfeild development (what eg SUM does)?

[percy]

Another positive announcement today... https://www.nzx.com/companies/ARV/announcements/267420

Despite the share price being close to, and sometimes below the offer price (during the SPP), somehow the $5m SPP was still oversubscribed, shows the confidence investors have in ARV... not surprising giving it has a 6.1% gross dividend, and capital growth (that will most likely come with an unusually low PE of 14.9 - and fittingly with these metrics one broker has a price target of $1.09 on it)

Regardless of if the rest of the retirement sector is more focused on greenfield development and sales associated with that (as percy explains above - lets hope the housing market doesn't go sour...) these valuation metrics are promising for any company (I would think?) I see the directors and institutional investors (eg ANZ) have caught onto this "future winner", I wonder when the rest of the market will...

What is the differences for brownfeild development (what ARV does) vs greenfeild development (what eg SUM does)?

Start at the bottom.The difference is HUGE.HUGE HUGE.
ARV may be included in the "retirememt sector" however the comparison of brownfield vs greenfield must be recognised, that you are comparing chalk with cheese.You may compare MET,RYM and SUM as they are greenfield,but I am not sure what I would compare ARV with.May sound stupid but possibly PGW?.If that sounds stupid to you, it makes more sense to me than comparing ARV with RYM etc.
So with ARV you are looking at growth plus divie.PGW forecast PE is 8.92 and yield is 9.56%.
Housing market?? Funny every one talks retirement sector, housing market,except RYM's CEO Simon Challis.I am with Challis.He has proved that Ryman succeed no matter what the housing market does.

[winner69]

Percy, rather than comparing to PGW maybe a better comparison is Greencross?

[percy]

Percy, rather than comparing to PGW maybe a better comparison is Greencross?

As always most probably right.
After I posted I thought the comparison could be a sheep farmer to a dairy farmer.Both in the same rural sector, but different businesses.Then who do you compare Greencross to,ARV or a retailer.?

[trader_jackson]

I don't think PGW is quite appropriate, Greencross potentially more so, although PE is a bit high, its up almost 50% in the past year so hopefully ARV follows this...

[Master98]

What is the differences for brownfeild development (what ARV does) vs greenfeild development (what eg SUM does)?
http://www.stuff.co.nz/business/70531874/arvida-ready-to-expand-care-facilities
"Brownfields refers to a building project that adds on to an existing building or site."
"The 21 villages had about 2140 beds or apartments in total and Arvida could add another 215 beds or units (10 per cent) via brownfield developments"

[trader_jackson]

Yes I saw this today, look forward to ARV continuing to build its portfolio, and increasing its shareholder value accordingly. Looking forward to the dividends a couple of years from now!

[trader_jackson]

Not surprisingly a broker has upgraded its price target on Arvida to $1.14, net dividend yield currently 5.2%.

Clearly brokers aren't always right, but even if they only get to half way to the price target in the next 12 months (from 87c to $1 instead of $1.14)... will still look forward to happy days ahead, and a good interest rate to match

Could even be introduced into the NZX 50 if share price goes up a bit...

[Master98]

Not surprisingly a broker has upgraded its price target on Arvida to $1.14, net dividend yield currently 5.2%.

Clearly brokers aren't always right, but even if they only get to half way to the price target in the next 12 months (from 87c to $1 instead of $1.14)... will still look forward to happy days ahead, and a good interest rate to match

Could even be introduced into the NZX 50 if share price goes up a bit...
yes solid company with solid income(return) suitable to longer term investors, you will get rewarded.

[troyvdh]

Dear Trader.Your enthusiasm is noted....However please take note of NG post.
Have you reflected on the fact that you are (as I am and many others) quite privileged to hear the opinions of many well seasoned SM battlers...I for one quite cherish the wisdom and Knowledge expressed by many posters.

Im a great fan of disclosure...what about you....cheers troy.

....are you an All Black...just asking

[trader_jackson]

Fair questions raised about my interests and disclosures, and I believe I have disclosed this before, but I do own a couple, being young not exactly a huge amount. I just can't get over the good fundamentals of this company, and yet the market treats it like rubbish (in my opinion).

And also someone has asked me this before but I did not buy in at all because of any all blacks affiliated with it, this had and still has 0% influence on me.

I also appreciate the wisdom etc, as one of the users helped me better understand how retirement villages (those in development/expansion mode) actually work... The thing I find interesting is I still have not been given a reason as to why the share price has dropped from its listing price despite good fundamentals (PE, yield etc) and outlook (overall retirement fundamentals etc)...

[trader_jackson]

I think he was implying me... always fun to have a bit of banter ;)

[trader_jackson]

https://www.nzx.com/companies/ARV/announcements/268834
(https://www.nzx.com/companies/ARV/announcements/268834)
Quarterly dividend payment, equivalent to a nice 4.7% yield, FY2016 to exceed guidance, growth opportunities... sounds all good, and should lead to increased dividend and capital gain. (no mention yet of 'combing/merging' issues regarding accounting systems etc... I assume there were none and its all clear sailing)

[trader_jackson]

https://www.nzx.com/companies/ARV/announcements/268834
(https://www.nzx.com/companies/ARV/announcements/268834)
Quarterly dividend payment, equivalent to a nice 4.7% yield, FY2016 to exceed guidance, growth opportunities... sounds all good, and should lead to increased dividend and capital gain. (no mention yet of 'combing/merging' issues regarding accounting systems etc... I assume there were none and its all clear sailing)

[trader_jackson]

7538
I hope this is of some use? Based of projections from Forsyth (who have usually been pretty good in the retirement sector)
I don't believe they are using underlying profit, but net profit instead... What I did see was that ARV's underlying earnings are currently higher than its net profit, and SUM's are not (have not look at the other two)

[trader_jackson]

I probably am confused.. but:

From ARV:
- NPAT of $3.1 million, ahead of IPO forecast
- Underlying Profit of $4.0 million, in line with IPO forecast

I will try find and recreate with underlying earnings (ie profit?)

[trader_jackson]

7539
ARV still the cheapest?? (forecast to be at least anyway, also MET I have increased the 2015 forecast by 13% to try reflect growth, but it could be less or more, so not that reliable)

$3m was 'unusually low' due to expected merger costs etc, it is forecast to be upwards of $14m next year, making a dividend of $3m per quarter easily possible.

[Lola]

Also, it's impossible for such companies to pay out 90% of profits as dividends as your figures imply unless the plan to fund all future capex from debt, which would be dumb. These figures just don't add up.
U r dead right.
actually I heard it said by someone who wud know that a few of the assets vendored in to the float were quote the crappy ones unquote.

[winner69]

Had a quick look at the recent release and it confirmed that the results were CONSISTENT WITH THE IPO FORECAST>

I don't know where you get off spouting all this misinformation, TJ, but its incredibly irresponsible and a total disgrace.

This thread should be purged accordingly. Its misleading and just plain wrong.

Assume the first sentence is quoting TJ

But the company says it is

Arvida announces FY2015 unaudited financial results in line with IPO guidance, declares maiden dividend in line with forecast. Full Year release -

- NPAT of $3.1 million, ahead of IPO forecast
- Underlying Profit of $4.0 million, in line with IPO forecast
- FY2015 final dividend of $2.3 million (representing 1.03 cps) declared, in line with IPO forecast
- National footprint established with the successful acquisition of 17 retirement villages and aged care facilities
- Key integration tasks completed
- Existence of synergy benefits confirmed and initial benefits locked in
- New Support Centre team in place with key leaders appointed
- Development of Arvida brand, culture and values across the group
- Arvida affirms FY2016 guidance in line with IPO forecast
Disc. just a passing interest in ARV

[winner69]

No tj is trying to suggest that the recent result was way below the ipo forecast and that next years profit would be three or four times higher than this year. Absolute bollocks

Ah so ...now I understand your point

I not impressed with Arvida (as an investment) either

[trader_jackson]

Assume the first sentence is quoting TJ

But the company says it is

Arvida announces FY2015 unaudited financial results in line with IPO guidance, declares maiden dividend in line with forecast. Full Year release -

- NPAT of $3.1 million, ahead of IPO forecast
- Underlying Profit of $4.0 million, in line with IPO forecast
- FY2015 final dividend of $2.3 million (representing 1.03 cps) declared, in line with IPO forecast
- National footprint established with the successful acquisition of 17 retirement villages and aged care facilities
- Key integration tasks completed
- Existence of synergy benefits confirmed and initial benefits locked in
- New Support Centre team in place with key leaders appointed
- Development of Arvida brand, culture and values across the group
- Arvida affirms FY2016 guidance in line with IPO forecast
Disc. just a passing interest in ARV

Not sure why people would refer to the IPO forecasts after a significant purchase of Aria... but anyway lets get back to business:

Ok lets have a look at the most recent results presentation, released 21 August (taking into account your post winner69 was 2 days after this release...)
- "First quarter dividend of $2.9 million (1.05 cents per share)" - ahead of forecast of last quarter by 2% (not sure what IPO forecasts were to be honest)
- "Based on current expectations, Directors confirm FY16 guidance to exceed the IPO prospectus" - $14m is outdated, $16.6m underlying profit (rising to 18.0m in 2017) is estimate from Forsyth (28 July) hence, going off current prices, ARV is still the "cheapest" (as Forsyth, and the previous picture I posted indicated)

So the company has already stated it will IPO forecasts in 3 respects: NPAT (already stated by winner69), Final dividend (just), FY2016 guidance (and probably beyond)... and the company is still looking for price accreditation acquisitions (hence even more potential to increase profits etc)

Summary:
No issues with integration (so far at least), good management have proven they can find a quality village, company is ahead of IPO forecasts in 3 major respects, I state this on here... and what happens? everyone on here calls it (and me??) a dog?

[Snow Leopard]

This thread looks somewhat different from when I read it over the weekend (it would seem that NewGuy has gone completely) but was intrigued and have actually looked into Arvida as a company.

Firstly the 2015 'Annual' Report and Accounts only cover the period from the foundation of the company on 17-Dec-2014 through to 31-Mar-2015 and are not for a full year.
This appeared to cause a lot of confusion and angst and is a shining example of it paying to actually read company accounts thoroughly and carefully.

Secondly Arvida make a reasonable and real profit on day to day operations and that is a nice source of cash.

Since then they have 'bought' some extra villages for a equity & debt mix and changed the picture a bit and my guess as to where there are currently going is:

Current NTA around $0.763 per share.
A minimum FY16 'after tax operating profit' of $11.3m (4.1cps) and probably more.
Add into that any realised and unrealised revaluation gains as you wish.
Financial headroom to build a few new units or carry on acquiring, but as they intend to pay reasonable dividends then they are not likely to be the 'growth' companies that RYM & SUM are and that MET seems unsure about becoming.

It is early days for Arvida and until they have a few more sets of accounts on the board there is the uncertainty of whether the company will actually perform.

Is it a good buy at $0.85 a pop? Of that I am not sure but could be interested if it came closer to that NTA.

Best Wishes
Paper Tiger

[trader_jackson]

I agree it is still early days for ARV, but yet again another nice update today... the key thing I saw was that greenfield development is now in consideration (not just brownfield)... a growing company, with a great dividend...

https://www.nzx.com/files/attachments/220884.pdf

(Dividend paid today as well :t_up:)

[trader_jackson]

Another step in the right direction...
https://www.nzx.com/companies/ARV/announcements/270698

[trader_jackson]

Thought I would bring this up again, will be interesting to see the half year report this Thursday, looking forward to what will become the usual from ARV: a good quarterly dividend payment, increasing profits, with high quality village and occupation rates, and extremely little exposure to dropping (or 'stabilizing' if you like) Auckland house prices.

(thursday is a big day for me, Pacific edge and Arvida excitement all in the space of a few hours?! much wow!)

[winner69]

You be happy with announcement t_j

If valued on same basis as Ryman worth nearly $3 --- but I get the impression 'cheap' for a reason

[OldGuy]

You be happy with announcement t_j

If valued on same basis as Ryman worth nearly $3 --- but I get the impression 'cheap' for a reason

yes, and a big part of that reason is its mediocre projected growth...

[trader_jackson]

Very happy with the result, probably going to be over $15 in profit for the full year, and at current prices thats a PE of around 15 (I think), dam cheap....

Growth isn't going to be as great as that of SUM, but it certainly is going to be better than that of the power companies, and yet they are trading at a much higher PE (on average) than that of ARV (yes I realize they could be argued to be valued differently, eg on FSF, but still)

[trader_jackson]

Good price increase today (so far)...

About time it got off a PE of just 14.7... bargain buy days could be over... (ARV might have not been included in Briscoe's massive 50% off sales anymore)

Onwards and upwards to $1, with a nice dividend paid just before Christmas

[trader_jackson]

Good price increase today (so far)...

About time it got off a PE of just 14.7... bargain buy days could be over... (ARV might have not been included in Briscoe's massive 50% off sales anymore)

Onwards and upwards to $1, with a nice dividend paid just before Christmas

[winner69]

Good price increase today (so far)...

About time it got off a PE of just 14.7... bargain buy days could be over... (ARV might have not been included in Briscoe's massive 50% off sales anymore)

Onwards and upwards to $1, with a nice dividend paid just before Christmas

Must be new/oldguy buying in ...neve could resist a bargain

[GR8DAY]

...why is the ANZ sight showing their PE as 69plus??

[trader_jackson]

I think its because they made not yet had a full year report, only 2 half years, with the first one being significantly impacted by one off costs (which was always expected so judging off this was pretty silly...)

Anyway lets look at the numbers:
They made 7.4m for half year... with another 7+m expected... lets just say $14m absolute worst case scenario full year profit, with a market cap of (now) just under $260m, PE is 18.6 (aprox) still far lower than any other retirement village (I believe)

As always, DYOR (and think about it...)

[winner69]

I think its because they made not yet had a full year report, only 2 half years, with the first one being significantly impacted by one off costs (which was always expected so judging off this was pretty silly...)

Anyway lets look at the numbers:
They made 7.4m for half year... with another 7+m expected... lets just say $14m absolute worst case scenario full year profit, with a market cap of (now) just under $260m, PE is 18.6 (aprox) still far lower than any other retirement village (I believe)

As always, DYOR (and think about it...)

t_j - do the same sum for Ryman

H1 NPAT was $132m - double that and you get $264m with market cap of $3.9 billion is a PE of 14.7 ....hmm

[Snow Leopard]

Unless they are going to pull a rabbit out of a hat* then I can see no justification for a share price as high as $0.95.

Best Wishes
Paper Tiger

Disc: Reserve the right to use the 'Well, they pulled a rabbit out of the hat' defense at a later date.

[winner69]

T_j - may as well look at MetLife as well

F15 NPAT $124m and market cap of $913m gives P/E of just over 7.4 ......hmm

[OldGuy]

Must be new/oldguy buying in ...neve could resist a bargain


haha, well played good sir!

[winner69]

t_j did you see this from Chris Lee. He has a different view on Arvida than you. Maybe Chris is oldguy's brother?
http://www.chrislee.co.nz/taking-stock

Arvida, (ARV) a rest home operator, announced a profit of around $7 million based largely on property revaluations.

The government-set charges for rest home care leaves very little if any margin for rest home operators but those who offer retirement villas to active residents can make very large sums by selling licenses to occupy villas, and controlling the selling process indefinitely.

The likes of Ryman, Summerset and Metlife have thousands of property units and make such healthy gains from property that they can afford to accept the barely break-even revenue of rest home care for the users of their total care facilities.

Profits from total care depend on minimal labour costs, or modest food budgets, or from selling add-on facilities, which are stylized as ‘’premium’’ services.

These can include add-ons for some apartment-occupying residents, such as, in-house assistance, delivered meals, or even car parking or things as simple as a superior view or access to sunlight.

Arvida, partly owned by a few All Blacks, has a higher percentage of its residents in care and therefore is unlikely ever to be categorized as a retirement village operator.

Its profits will always be anchored by the unprofitable activity of rest home care unless it can acquire the capital and the land to expand its retirement village assets.

Its original owners, including the All Black investors, are restricted from selling for some months yet. They would be very wise to sell and buy into Ryman/Summerset/Metlife, if they wish to benefit from the profitable part of the sector.

Arvida shares listed at 95 cents and now sell at 90c, despite the company achieving the level of profitability forecasted

[trader_jackson]

Thanks for sharing this and it is interesting what he says.

Although it is true what he says regarding care units being substantially less profitable, ARV does have a substantial number of independent apartment units as well, so it is not solely care based, as the article would imply. It could also benefit from potential economics of scale and synergies of bring many villages together, therefore lowering costs per person in care, and improving the margin, although this is still not going to be anywhere near as profitable as license to occupy I realize.

ARV is also actively looking for other high quality villages, that will increase EPS and dividends per share (like Aria villages did), which will also further boost economics of scale and synergies.

From a more macro point of view, What people seem to be missing in the whole retirement sector, is that increasingly people are living longer (less turn over = less profit for the licence to occupy, and more people needing care as they get older - ie care beds). ARV is well placed to capitalize on this, having quite a few care beds, while other retirement villages could fail to meet these ambitious growth plans, some have even pointed out there could be a short-medium term oversupply of villas.

Aside from this, old people are getting more tech savvy (accessing forums such as this) and realizing just how much money these big retirement villages are ripping them off by, this combined with a potential oversupply will force those who are heavily exposed to having to sell villas into potential discounting, or other benefits (for example buy a licence to occupy off SUM instead of MET as they offer a fixed fee for life - this has already happened and now pretty much all villages have this - lets hope inflation doesn't take off right?) Where are the discounts/benefits going to come from next? ARV doesn't have to worry about this potential intense competition and has a higher % occupancy, further increasing benefits.

Anyway, this is a very 'big' look at the picture and ARV is a long term game for me, with short term benefits (ie the dividend). SUM may be the stay this year, but in a decades time potentially not so much. Ryman could be the only village I would consider selling ARV for (if it gets back down to a more fair value of around $6), as they will also continue to do well as I know they have a strong care focus.

[OldGuy]

Chris Lee hit the nail on the head. Your "rebuttal" was cute though, T_J

[trader_jackson]

Chris Lee hit the nail on the head. Your "rebuttal" was cute though, T_J

Chris Lee clearly hasn't visited or talked to those who work in retirement villages, nor able to look into the long term future to much

[percy]

Chris Lee clearly hasn't visited or talked to those who work in retirement villages, nor able to look into the long term future to much
FACT.
Chris Lee has been involved with a retirement village on the Kapiti Coast for a very considerable time.
Most probably one of NZ's most experienced people in the sector.

[trader_jackson]

I apologize, and take that back then. I went to a retirement village in the Bay of Plenty recently (and have previously talked to relatives who have worked in/near the industry), it was surprising to me two things: that people are living longer (less resales = less license to occupy turnover), and how many people increasingly needed care.

Given Chris's extensive involvement in the industry, I am therefore extremely surprised how short sighted his article on ARV is, given he has not appeared to considered to many macro factors affecting the sector in the long term. There are some ARV villages around the Kapiti area ;)

[percy]

Have you considered with people living longer they may actually be leaving it longer before they enter a retirement village?
I forget the details, but I do seem to remember the age people joined a RYM village was a lot older than I expected.

[trader_jackson]

Have you considered with people living longer they may actually be leaving it longer before they enter a retirement village?
I forget the details, but I do seem to remember the age people joined a RYM village was a lot older than I expected.

Yes, could certainly happen, it is quite scare for those companies who are heavily in debt and heavily rely on sales and resales of their units to those who are able to not have to have care (and the costs of construction and refurbishment that go with that), to make money (hmm SUM...), they do make alot of money of this, but the days of 'easy money' could be numbered (anyone ever considered this?)

While those who don't need care may choose to live on there own (like my own grandad, as like many people going into retirement these days, they understand just how much money retirement villages suck out of them and their inheritance), those that will need care, will need care, and this will increase in steady numbers, ARV is well positioned to capitalize on this, while also benefiting from having a few (in comparison to other listed operators), but very high quality villas to resell (not that there's that many to resell as the occupancy rate is so high!).

SUM and MET (and potentially RYM) are not retirement villages... they are property development companies

[percy]

SUM and MET (and potentially RYM) are not retirement villages... they are property development companies

Yes,and on completion of each village the sale of occupancy rights gives them the capital for the next village,while retaining ownership of each village.
Compounding.
Inheritance.Safety,security,and comfort is what attracts people to retirement villages.Total care.It is their money to choose how to spend it.Would be great to die having spent the lot.!!! lol.

[trader_jackson]

Good to see some free advertising for Arvida on 3 news just a few minutes ago... helping residents get active :t_up:

http://www.3news.co.nz/nznews/rest-home-residents-get-back-on-the-bike-2015120417#axzz3t6pIb6Nf

[janner]

Have you considered with people living longer they may actually be leaving it longer before they enter a retirement village?
I forget the details, but I do seem to remember the age people joined a RYM village was a lot older than I expected.

Mid 70's.. Still working in Physical job.. 40 plus hours..

Still keeping the much younger woman very happy :-))

Who needs a retirement village ???

Or even ignite .. !!

Aye percy :-)))

[percy]

Yes aye,no surprises there!!!

That/those daughter/s still keeping you working.?
Hells bells the granddaughter's new computer cost me over twice what I paid for mine.!!
Like you I have put off my retirement for another 35 years.!

[percy]

Try and get along to the next Ryman agm.
Held in one of their villages.
The Chairman put his mother in Ngaio Marsh Village.
The CFO got to know Ryman through putting his mother in a Ryman home.
A good number of shareholders attending every agm are village residents, who are both proud of their village,and their shareholding in Ryman.
My brother-in-law is in the final stages of terminal cancer.Receives free prescriptions,yet the miserable chemist charged him $3 fax fee, as his Dr had faxed it through.!

[trader_jackson]

Not sure if anyone else noticed 'some action' that occured today, but in a trade at 9:01 this morning close to 1% (0.93%) of the company changed hands (at 0.91 - above market price of 0.90)... will be interesting to see if any SSH notices appear in the coming days as a result...Looking forward to more greenfield developments (which ARV have stated they are looking at)... as you all say, this is where the 'easy money' is

[King1212]

Righto people! I was having breakfast this morning n read local newspapers regarding one of Arvida's site open home. So I decided to have a visit and check thier site's development.

https://www.nzx.com/companies/ARV/announcements/277863

My General feedbacks:

1. Regarding thier update (refer to above announcement), construction and renovation works are evident. I can confirm there are new service apartments and villas built and ready to be sold And ready to be occupied.
2. The company is doing a good marketing locally to attract more residents. I can confirm there are quite a good interest with the newly built apartments and villas during my visit.
3. Regarding thier care focused vision, I went to the rest home and walked around to see the staff and the residents. Guess what? One of the staff turned out to be my tenant wife! I had a good chat with the staff and looked around. There no evident of work pressures, staffs are happy working there. I could see the residents are enjoying thier lunch. Proportion of staff is adequate with the size of the residents.(trust me, my wife work in one of the privately own rest home, u don't believe the workloads they have. Residents are just a number for them)

In a nut shell, I think Arvida is a long term investment. Obviously they need "time" to grow, and definitely more properties to buy and more developments to happen in order to see the share up. Generally speaking, they are not bluffing or lying about the current development on one of thier site. We could probably see this company grow like SUM, MET even RYm but they need "time"

As we all know "time is the best friend of long term investor"

Hope my small and short experience could help and give your general views about Arvida. Please DYOR.

Note: I am am a long term holder. I like to do my own research and share my findings. My findings and feedback could be wrong so please don't sell your house and put all the money in or follow me!

[trader_jackson]

Righto people! I was having breakfast this morning n read local newspapers regarding one of Arvida's site open home. So I decided to have a visit and check thier site's development.

https://www.nzx.com/companies/ARV/announcements/277863

My General feedbacks:

1. Regarding thier update (refer to above announcement), construction and renovation works are evident. I can confirm there are new service apartments and villas built and ready to be sold And ready to be occupied.
2. The company is doing a good marketing locally to attract more residents. I can confirm there are quite a good interest with the newly built apartments and villas during my visit.
3. Regarding thier care focused vision, I went to the rest home and walked around to see the staff and the residents. Guess what? One of the staff turned out to be my tenant wife! I had a good chat with the staff and looked around. There no evident of work pressures, staffs are happy working there. I could see the residents are enjoying thier lunch. Proportion of staff is adequate with the size of the residents.(trust me, my wife work in one of the privately own rest home, u don't believe the workloads they have. Residents are just a number for them)

In a nut shell, I think Arvida is a long term investment. Obviously they need "time" to grow, and definitely more properties to buy and more developments to happen in order to see the share up. Generally speaking, they are not bluffing or lying about the current development on one of thier site. We could probably see this company grow like SUM, MET even RYm but they need "time"

As we all know "time is the best friend of long term investor"

Hope my small and short experience could help and give your general views about Arvida. Please DYOR.

Note: I am am a long term holder. I like to do my own research and share my findings. My findings and feedback could be wrong so please don't sell your house and put all the money in or follow me!

I appreciate it greatly and do look forward to Arvida both continue to develop as a rest home ("care based") and look forward to them embarking on more brownfield and greenfield based development (both of which the company has mentioned it is interested in and/or currently undertaking). I believe the Browns Bay one is doing very nicely.

Although capital gains growth could be argued to be slower than that of say SUM with ambitious building and sales targets (that they are delivering on... so far), I will continue to enjoy a 5% yield instead.

An immediate concern for ARV, as a stock, is that when the escrows end (which I believe is mid this year?) the market is flooded with "All Black sellers" who just want cash... I am sort of hoping this 'retail stupidity' (fueled by short signed panic), demonstrated very well in PEB a few months back, will happen so I can pick up some cheap shares for myself! (Although unlike PEB, I don't think ARV will increase 57% 4 months!)

Disclosure: I brought at IPO price so I am down a bit capital wise, although a friend of mine brought at 82c in Oct 15, after noticing a few directors continuing to purchase more shares, and has enjoyed over 9% capital gain already, and on track for a 7% yield - unheard of in the retirement sector!

[King1212]

I appreciate it greatly and do look forward to Arvida both continue to develop as a rest home ("care based") and look forward to them embarking on more brownfield and greenfield based development (both of which the company has mentioned it is interested in and/or currently undertaking). I believe the Browns Bay one is doing very nicely.

Although capital gains growth could be argued to be slower than that of say SUM with ambitious building and sales targets (that they are delivering on... so far), I will continue to enjoy a 5% yield instead.

An immediate concern for ARV, as a stock, is that when the escrows end (which I believe is mid this year?) the market is flooded with "All Black sellers" who just want cash... I am sort of hoping this 'retail stupidity' (fueled by short signed panic), demonstrated very well in PEB a few months back, will happen so I can pick up some cheap shares for myself! (Although unlike PEB, I don't think ARV will increase 57% 4 months!)

Disclosure: I brought at IPO price so I am down a bit capital wise, although a friend of mine brought at 82c in Oct 15, after noticing a few directors continuing to purchase more shares, and has enjoyed over 9% capital gain already, and on track for a 7% yield - unheard of in the retirement sector!


yes, I am aware with all blacks sellers too this mid year. However, If they are smart, they will hold thier shares. Like u said, what retirement sector can give u a high yield like Arvida?

[trader_jackson]

yes, I am aware with all blacks sellers too this mid year. However, If they are smart, they will hold thier shares. Like u said, what retirement sector can give u a high yield like Arvida?

"If they are smart"... note the "If"

[trader_jackson]

Did anyone else notice that there was a trade for just over 3 million shares around mid day today? (I presume at 92 cents but i can't find a record of it...) this is like 1.5% of the company in 1 trade, and far far higher than the average daily traded... and the embargoes haven't expired yet (I don't think)..

Anyone have any ideas?

[777]

did anyone else notice that there was a trade for just over 3 million shares around mid day today? (i presume at 92 cents but i can't find a record of it...) this is like 1.5% of the company in 1 trade, and far far higher than the average daily traded... And the embargoes haven't expired yet (i don't think)..

Anyone have any ideas?
91 15,754 14:19 SP
91.5 14,500 13:18 SP
91.5 250,000 13:17 SP
91.5 473,575 13:17 SP
91.5 1,500,000 12:23 sp
91.5 1,000,000 11:30 sp
92 110,546 11:23 sp

[trader_jackson]

91 15,754 14:19 SP
91.5 14,500 13:18 SP
91.5 250,000 13:17 SP
91.5 473,575 13:17 SP
91.5 1,500,000 12:23 sp
91.5 1,000,000 11:30 sp
92 110,546 11:23 sp

Thank you, for some reason Forsyth didn't show the ones at 91.5...

Will be interesting to see if any SSH notices appear...

[777]

http://www.stocknessmonster.com

is also a good site for similar info

[King1212]

Any good news coming? Or what?

[trader_jackson]

Any good news coming? Or what?

I am not to sure... I know dividend was just paid so maybe just wanted to 'get out' after ex dividend? But there had to be a big buyer for this 3 million or so shares as well... (off market also)

Thanks for the link 777

[King1212]

https://www.nzx.com/files/attachments/232424.pdf

latest news...

[King1212]

Go Arvida!!!!!

[trader_jackson]

I've noticed some big buy orders being put in lately (ie today) around 91c and 93c

It could be because of Forsyth's valuation of $1.09 being reinforced yesterday in a 37 page "aged care update"... maybe people finally catching on that ARV isn't just a business of low(er) margin care beds and have a nice development in the pipeline (Park Lane) along side a good number of high quality apartments/units.

I am hoping this will be a great success, and allow ARV to build a successful development record, eventually show Mr Market (who is currently pricing almost no growth) that ARV isn't just care beds.

Meanwhile I'll keep enjoying my 6 or so percent yield :t_up:

[King1212]

I've noticed

Meanwhile I'll keep enjoying my 6 or so percent yield :t_up:




Yes....my gut feeling is right!!Arvida is way undervalue in the sector compare with SUM, MET and RYM! I know it will do well...long term!!!

[King1212]

I've noticed some big buy orders being put in lately (ie today) around 91c and 93c

It could be because of Forsyth's valuation of $1.09 being reinforced yesterday in a 37 page "aged care update"... maybe people finally catching on that ARV isn't just a business of low(er) margin care beds and have a nice development in the pipeline (Park Lane) along side a good number of high quality apartments/units.

I am hoping this will be a great success, and allow ARV to build a successful development record, eventually show Mr Market (who is currently pricing almost no growth) that ARV isn't just care beds.

Meanwhile I'll keep enjoying my 6 or so percent yield :t_up:


Hei TJ, do you have the aged care update? Would u mind to share it?

[Lewylewylewy]

Some of the wording from the ARV management didn't give me a lot of confidence that they're focused on growth. To be honest, I would rather expect shareholders to be hoping for a buyout as the best option for return. Agreed, dividends on ARV are nice and will likely be consistent.

[PartyPooper]

Some of the wording from the ARV management didn't give me a lot of confidence that they're focused on growth. To be honest, I would rather expect shareholders to be hoping for a buyout as the best option for return. Agreed, dividends on ARV are nice and will likely be consistent.

Pretty much nails my thoughts on ARV. The company is to focused on dividends to grow at the pace of the big 3.

Sometime ago someone mentioned MET buying out ARV to expand their South Island portfolio. As most of MET's villages are in Auckland. Either that or an Australian company(EHE, REG, JHC or AOG) buying them out to expand their operations. Then injecting funds for faster growth.

Personally I'd rather ARV, SUM, RYM and MET to stop paying dividends and use the money for faster growth, paying down debt or share buy backs.

-Pooping the Party

[King1212]

Pretty much nails my thoughts on ARV. The company is to focused on dividends to grow at the pace of the big 3.

Sometime ago someone mentioned MET buying out ARV to expand their South Island portfolio. As most of MET's villages are in Auckland. Either that or an Australian company(EHE, REG, JHC or AOG) buying them out to expand their operations. Then injecting funds for faster growth.

Personally I'd rather ARV, SUM, RYM and MET to stop paying dividends and use the money for faster growth, paying down debt or share buy backs.

-Pooping the Party


Cant really do so...no dividend no investors.....dividend is the only sweetener to attract more investor....However, I completely agree with u. Maybe they should offer DRP

[Lewylewylewy]

A DRP would work, but not all company owners are willing to give up shares to build the value of remaining shares.

[winner69]

T_j - ARV getting close to a $1

Well done - rewards for keeping he faith eh

[trader_jackson]

T_j - ARV getting close to a $1

Well done - rewards for keeping he faith eh

At $1 now! No surprise... Mr Market is just beginning to understand the potential (well more the under pricing) of ARV

Future NZX 50 company?

[King1212]

At $1 now! No surprise... Mr Market is just beginning to understand the potential (well more the under pricing) of ARV

Future NZX 50 company?


Yeah yeahhh

[couta1]

At $1 now! No surprise... Mr Market is just beginning to understand the potential (well more the under pricing) of ARV

Future NZX 50 company? Yeah it has about one tenth the potential of Ryman, there is nothing really for Mr Market to understand except that this is primarily a care based company with a few add on villas as opposed to the big three being primarily property development companies ( More so with Ryman and Sum) Once Oceania lists Arvida will have another company to compete with on an Apples for Apples basis.

[Leftfield]

At $1 now! No surprise... Mr Market is just beginning to understand the potential (well more the under pricing) of ARV

Future NZX 50 company?

Underpriced? PE at current price is 71.2 compared to MET at 5.3 and Sum at 11.5

[trader_jackson]

Underpriced? PE at current price is 71.2 compared to MET at 5.3 and Sum at 11.5

I am not sure where you get your numbers from, but a report prepared by Forsyth on 23rd march listed the following PE:
ARV 15.2x
MET 15.3x
RYM 23.9x
SUM 20.0x

Prices have changed since then meaning the above will be slightly out of date, although they do provide a nice graph showing MET and ARV are always the lowest for "12 month forward PE ratios" at around 15

I'm not saying they are going to be the next Ryman, but I also find it interesting how the market continues (or use to) to write off ARV's potential development capabilities

[couta1]

The PE ratio for ARV on close tonight according to ANZ securities is 75:eek2: PS- Please re read the last sentence from post #126 tj and let it sink in, you really must stop comparing Apples with Oranges.

[Lewylewylewy]

If the PE is 75 and the div is 6%, where is the money reinvested into the business for growth?

[percy]

Yeah it has about one tenth the potential of Ryman, there is nothing really for Mr Market to understand except that this is primarily a care based company with a few add on villas as opposed to the big three being primarily property development companies ( More so with Ryman and Sum) Once Oceania lists Arvida will have another company to compete with on an Apples for Apples basis.

Thank you Couta1 for being "right on the money."

[Leftfield]

I am not sure where you get your numbers from, but a report prepared by Forsyth on 23rd march listed the following PE:


The figs quoted in my post #127 were current as supplied from the ANZ Securities Direct Broking site as at yesterday's prices. DYOR.

[trader_jackson]

The figs quoted in my post #127 were current as supplied from the ANZ Securities Direct Broking site as at yesterday's prices. DYOR.

Yes it is quite weird... not sure where Forsyth get their numbers from... I to look forward to (and hope!) Oceania lists, as it will provide a better comparison (retirement village vs retirement village rather than retirement village vs property development company)

[winner69]

From a bit by Chris Lee on the Ryman thread -

It may also provide hope for Arvida and Oceania, both of which have shareholders who simply want to exit what has been a very lean business model.

Chris Lee doesn't get it does he t_j - its about a transfer of riches to a new breed of investors eh

[OldGuy]

TJ has to be the least convincing company-sponsored poster on this site. Hilarious.

[OldGuy]

Yes it is quite weird... not sure where Forsyth get their numbers from... I to look forward to (and hope!) Oceania lists, as it will provide a better comparison (retirement village vs retirement village rather than retirement village vs property development company)

ummm..property development is a critical part of a retirement village business model. Without it, there are no villages (except via expensive acquisition, which Arvida have already done very badly)

[trader_jackson]

ummm..property development is a critical part of a retirement village business model. Without it, there are no villages (except via expensive acquisition, which Arvida have already done very badly)

I am interested to know why you think Arvida did a "very bad expensive acquisition" (I assume you are talking about the high quality Aria villages?)

[King1212]

I am interested to know why you think Arvida did a "very bad expensive acquisition" (I assume you are talking about the high quality Aria villages?)

People can say whatever their opinions, but let the market and time determine the company value....

[Hectorplains]

yes, I am aware with all blacks sellers too this mid year. However, If they are smart, they will hold thier shares. Like u said, what retirement sector can give u a high yield like Arvida?

This, from the NZ Herald business article on McCaw today:

"The bulk of McCaw's holdings were rolled up and floated on the NZX in late 2014 as Arvida. According to an analysis of the company's prospectus and various rest home shareholding lists filed with the Companies Office, it appears McCaw's stake in Arvida stood at just under 1 per cent at the time it listed in late 2014. While a small stake, its value was nonetheless considerable, with Herald calculations suggesting it was worth in excess of $2.5 million.
Subsequent shareholding lists filed by the retirement home operators to the Companies Office appear to show McCaw has since sold down his holdings. A November disclosure showed McCaw's remaining stake stood at just 105,000 shares, worth around $107,000 at last week's prices."

The escrow period then would appear to have already ended. The rest of the article presents McCaw as a 'smart' operator.

[Lewylewylewy]

The escrow period was supposed to be the 30th of may. I've been waiting for this date, expecting a drop due to increased supply... However the SP ran away about a week ago from its meandering 90s.

I wanted in on this due to diversity in the sector, but am not a fan due to the words management have used around growth - feels like they're tired and not striving to dominate the market. I figured after escrow I might get a bargain, looks like that's not happening. Can't really see a good reason other than low interest rates for recent SP moves.

[trader_jackson]

The herald could always be wrong... in fact I can't find what they are talking about (but I am probably looking at the wrong thing) I do recall one/some of the management team buying up shares during/around this period

[Hectorplains]

The escrow period was supposed to be the 30th of may. I've been waiting for this date, expecting a drop due to increased supply... However the SP ran away about a week ago from its meandering 90s.

I wanted in on this due to diversity in the sector, but am not a fan due to the words management have used around growth - feels like they're tired and not striving to dominate the market. I figured after escrow I might get a bargain, looks like that's not happening. Can't really see a good reason other than low interest rates for recent SP moves.

McDonald said at the AGM, mid last year, that about 60% of Arvida shares were held in escrow by various holders who could only sell after 30/5/16. McCaw's holding must then not have included in that sale restriction.

Hey, you may still get your wish. 60% is potentially a shed load of shares.If I remember rightly, SLI had a similarly escrow (albeit married with the company's under performance) provision for their founding holders. Their share price was decimated after that date with large parcels being dumped on the market.

[777]

Maybe they could sell to others also restricted, just not on the open market.

[OldGuy]

I am interested to know why you think Arvida did a "very bad expensive acquisition" (I assume you are talking about the high quality Aria villages?)

let's just say that I have consulted to this company and was not particularly impressed with what I discovered. Thanks :)

[whatsup]

$1.02 now.

[trader_jackson]

$1.08 now...

[winner69]

$1.20 soon

[trader_jackson]

I think it is very good ARV Management listened to minor share holders comments and took the time to see what large escrowed share holders intend to do... this will reduce uncertainty that panic share sales will happen immediately after May 30

https://www.nzx.com/companies/ARV/announcements/281414 (https://www.nzx.com/companies/ARV/announcements/281414)

In my view, looks like we really could be heading to $1.20 now that pressure from escrowed shares is likely to be almost non existent!

Clearly their largest share holders have great confidence in management and ARV's ambitions, I would have expected them to sell a bit more just to get some cash, but then again, why sell a company with a steadily rising share price, underpinned by defensive earnings and a dividend yield unheard of in the retirement sector?

Could also hint that these majority shareholders (ie the villages themselves) are expecting a very nice May 25 announcement;) , we already know it is going to be well ahead of IPO forecasts...

[OldGuy]

TJ - keep your eyes wide open. Investors often change their minds, and they also often don't reveal their true intentions (because doing so would undermine their wider play)

[trader_jackson]

Investors often change their minds, and they also often don't reveal their true intentions (because doing so would undermine their wider play)

Very true, although I doubt they would purposeful come out with a statement saying they expect to sell 2 million shares, and then go ahead and dump 10 million on the market (in short period of time)... they'd likely get some inquiry form the NZX as to why they would 'mislead' the market... still possible over a long period of time to gradually sell down of course, just nice to know there is (most likely) not going to be any immediate downward pressure on the share price, as a result of escrowed shares coming off escrow :t_up:

[OldGuy]

Reread the statement. No one made any firm undertakings. Its all completely hearsay. Any deviation from it would be highly unlikely to elicit FMA investigation, and hence they are free to deviate as much as they want without fear of repercussion...

[winner69]

Main part of the ann was the company is keen to "facilitate" the selling of these shares by getting Forbar involved

A cynic would say thats good news - plenty of portfolios they manage they can dump these bargain share in (just pure speculation based on what posters have previously posted about Forbar)

[King1212]

https://www.anzshareandbondtrading.co.nz/dynamic/announcement.aspx?id=4147092

Valuation increase.

[winner69]

https://www.anzshareandbondtrading.co.nz/dynamic/announcement.aspx?id=4147092

Valuation increase.

What a weird announcement

[King1212]

What a weird announcement

Please explain...

[winner69]

Please explain...

Just seems weird they announce this a coupe weeks before the full year report comes out (you don't see ryman or summerset doing this) and then tagging it "The revaluation of Arvida's care facility land and buildings is not expected to result in a material change in value."

Relative to what others have reported in revaluations this seems a bit on the light side.

Suppose reported NPAT will be around $19m plus or minus a bit

Good or bad king?

[King1212]

Just seems weird they announce this a coupe weeks before the full year report comes out (you don't see ryman or summerset doing this) and then tagging it "The revaluation of Arvida's care facility land and buildings is not expected to result in a material change in value."

Relative to what others have reported in revaluations this seems a bit on the light side.

Suppose reported NPAT will be around $19m plus or minus a bit

Good or bad king?

Don't know, I will wait till the result come out. What do you think TJ?

[winner69]

All that matters is the result beats IPO forecasts

Rather meaningless target but seems inportant

[OldGuy]

What on earth is going on here, Winner?

[winner69]

What on earth is going on here, Winner?

I am totally befuddled oldguy

I think they think they are in the big time now and need to impress .....or something like that

[King1212]

I guess the company is being super conservative, don't want to forecast over then did not achieve the target. Just look at ASX:MGC, thier share got smashed! Just because they missed thier forecast....

[trader_jackson]

Hmm it was an interesting announcement, something that I would have thought they'd save for "the big day" (Wednesday 25 May) as 7% is good (more NTA backing etc etc) but not exactly something I would have thought an additional announcement was required for... then again with continuous disclosure rules, they might have felt the need to release it asap rather than take the risk of waiting 15 days, with company insiders already knowing this 'nice' bit of news... they are going to exceed IPO forecasts by a "substantial" margin (in my view...I mean this is what happens when you buy another profitable high quality retirement village that wasn't in IPO forecasts, they have also repeatedly stated that they will beat IPO forecasts)... what I will be interest in is comparing IPO EPS & DPS forecast to May 25 2016 EPS & DPS actual, and any further greenfield and brownfield development updates as I believe ARV is considering moving more into development

On a side note, we all know companies like to try and build up some sort of positive momentum (or warn the market of serious issues!) in the couple weeks leading up to results day... if SUM etc didn't do this kind of announcement, they'd be bound to do some other forecast or something.. or if there is absolutely no news, don't be expecting alot come results day (this is my informal analysis anyway)

[King1212]

Hmm it was an interesting announcement, something that I would have thought they'd save for "the big day" (Wednesday 25 May) as 7% is good (more NTA backing etc etc) but not exactly something I would have thought an additional announcement was required for... then again with continuous disclosure rules, they might have felt the need to release it asap rather than take the risk of waiting 15 days, with company insiders already knowing this 'nice' bit of news... they are going to exceed IPO forecasts by a "substantial" margin (in my view...I mean this is what happens when you buy another profitable high quality retirement village that wasn't in IPO forecasts, they have also repeatedly stated that they will beat IPO forecasts)... what I will be interest in is comparing IPO EPS & DPS forecast to May 25 2016 EPS & DPS actual, and any further greenfield and brownfield development updates as I believe ARV is considering moving more into development

On a side note, we all know companies like to try and build up some sort of positive momentum (or warn the market of serious issues!) in the couple weeks leading up to results day... if SUM etc didn't do this kind of announcement, they'd be bound to do some other forecast or something.. or if there is absolutely no news, don't be expecting alot come results day (this is my informal analysis anyway)

Good one TJ, look like Arvida is a good stock to keep for long term.

[winner69]

What on earth is going on here, Winner?

Hey oldguy - even t_j appears to be a bit bemused with whats going on.

Must be good though - marked Price Sensitive

[OldGuy]

haha, interesting. Never thought I'd hear t_j say anything bad about his dearly beloved... :)

[trader_jackson]

https://www.nzx.com/companies/ARV/announcements/282941

Great results, don't need to go into to much detail :t_up: but actually I think I will (a bit).. did anyone else spot one particular hidden surprise that occurred today? (which was of course very good...Lansdowne Park acquisition, high quality by the looks of it with 98% occupancy and purchased under CBRE fair value and "immediately accretive to earnings")

150 units under development, 24 luxury ones already under construction... looks like ARV is turning more to development (which is what I have believed for a while now.. and according to 'everyone else' on the form this is where the 'real money' is, so looking forward to this, as will make profit numbers look even better due to expected increases in fair value gains)

I note there was a specific part in the presentation that mentioned greenfield developments... first time I think this has been done, I also note at the end it is mentioned "development activity to deliver continued momentum in revenue and earnings"... by now, I'm sure it is clear ARV is not just a "low margin" care bed operator anymore;)

Selling of escrow shares (which is expected to be very little, this was reaffirmed again) still doesn't appear to result in sustained downward pressure (I think)... could be done in a block trade, easy for me to see an institution come and vacuum these up.

Not expecting to much price action due to it having the 2nd best 52 week return (32.2% when including gross dividends), 2nd only to SUM with 36.26% (source NZX website)... then again going by the looks of Ryman (who also recently reported their results) and assuming ARV begins more development (as indicated) could be a bit more room to run yet!

Food for thought:
Arvida:
- Underlying profit of $15.8 million
- Net Profit After Tax of $24.0 million
- Net operating cash flows $24.2 million
- Market cap 0.3b

Ryman:
- Underlying profit of $158 million (10x ARV)
- Net Profit After Tax of $241.9 million (10x ARV)
- Net operating cash flows $312.5 million (13x ARV)
- Market cap: 5.8b (19x ARV)

Disclosure: hard not to hold!

[King1212]

https://www.nzx.com/companies/ARV/announcements/282941

Great results, don't need to go into to much detail :t_up:... did anyone else spot one particular hidden surprise that occurred today? (which was of course very good...)

They are looking other instos to buy in escrow shares??? I am so happy with the result..dividend increases to 1.10 cents. wowww


Forsyth Barr Limited, who has been appointed to


assist in the co-ordination and sale of any escrowed shares at the end of the


escrow period, has received indications of interest from a range of


institutional and retail investors in relation to the purchase of these


escrowed shares.

[winner69]

https://www.nzx.com/companies/ARV/announcements/282941

Great results, don't need to go into to much detail :t_up:... did anyone else spot one particular hidden surprise that occurred today? (which was of course very good...)

Increased dividend

Looks like they even made some money out of looking after people (non-property stuff)

I see $1.30 share price soon - might get there before Heartland t_j

Not for me though

[trader_jackson]

Increased dividend

Looks like they even made some money out of looking after people (non-property stuff)

I see $1.30 share price soon - might get there before Heartland t_j

Not for me though

Just updated my post above... $1.30? is that all? ;);)
(hope it turns into a race to see who can get there first!)

[winner69]

Just updated my post above... $1.30? is that all? ;);)
(hope it turns into a race to see who can get there first!)

I did say soon

But 2 bucks by Xmas as the re-rating evolves

[trader_jackson]

let's just say that I have consulted to this company and was not particularly impressed with what I discovered. Thanks :)

I am interested to see what you think of ARV's results posted today, particularly interested to see if you are not particularity impressed by them.

Thought I would also use this post to re look at sector PE's (as I have done this in the past):
- SUM: 11.9
- MET: 5.8
- RYM: 15.5
- ARV: 12.1

I am also pleased to say, on the whole, it is above Forsyth's Estimates.

(I also added to my post above #166)

[King1212]

I am interested to see what you think of ARV's results posted today, particularly interested to see if you are not particularity impressed by them.

Thought I would also use this post to re look at sector PE's (as I have done this in the past):
- SUM: 11.9
- MET: 5.8
- RYM: 15.5
- ARV: 12.1

I am also pleased to say, on the whole, it is above Forsyth's Estimates.

(I also added to my post above #166)

Looking good TJ...happy with escrow decision, intos will suck it easily without impacting the share price heavily....

[Lewylewylewy]

What new development are ARV undertaking?

[winner69]

t_j ARV closing in on HBL

Odds on now it will HBL to 130 ....and it will always be ahead of HBL

Have considered getting of the loser/slow plodding hack and doubling up on the winner/throughbred?

Whatever - good on you for keeping the faith and staying loyal.

Newguy banned so you won't be hearing from him

[trader_jackson]

https://www.nzx.com/companies/ARV/announcements/282941
Not expecting to much price action due to it having the 2nd best 52 week return (32.2% when including gross dividends), 2nd only to SUM with 36.26% (source NZX website)... then again going by the looks of Ryman (who also recently reported their results) and assuming ARV begins more development (as indicated) could be a bit more room to run yet!


How wrong I was! Share price at $1.18, with several trades at $1.20... winner69: the 're-rating' of ARV seems to have begun...! ARV now the best performer over the past year? Who would have thought eh!

Lewylewylewy, please see the below: (and for more information, see: https://www.nzx.com/companies/ARV/announcements/282941)

Arvida has an active brownfield development programme with potential to enhance earnings from existing facilities and provide attractive returns on capital invested. Returns from developments continue to grow as they mature and reach normal levels of activity. Development capabilities have been deepened in order to position the company to execute the opportunities ahead.
Brownfield development activity in progress includes 150 retirement units and 37 care beds in the planning and consenting phase. Auckland City Council has recently approved the resource consent for the construction of 24 luxury apartments at Aria Bay. The village is very well located, with an excellent reputation in its local community and these new apartments will provide local residents with a quality retirement offering.
In addition, there are an estimated additional 100+ beds/units within existing villages that are yet to be assessed.

Also from NBR today:
“We have considerable brownfield opportunities within the existing portfolio that we’ve been working hard on, and over time as we deal with in-house capabilities and brownfield opportunities we would move toward more greenfield opportunities.”

[trader_jackson]

Update: Forsyth hikes 12 month price target to $1.30...

Noting:
- Increased confidence in development (particularly mentioning: how it has increased its internal development capability, adding four new roles and boosting the team to five people: 2 new roles in Auckland (development manager and project manager) + 2 new roles in Christchurch (development manager and project manager), which will help the company to execute on upcoming development opportunities (particularly 150 planned units... so far).

- Growth in all revenue streams – growth in all areas

- Another acquisition (of high quality)

[King1212]

Update: Forsyth hikes 12 month price target to $1.30...

Noting:
- Increased confidence in development (particularly mentioning: how it has increased its internal development capability, adding four new roles and boosting the team to five people: 2 new roles in Auckland (development manager and project manager) + 2 new roles in Christchurch (development manager and project manager), which will help the company to execute on upcoming development opportunities (particularly 150 planned units... so far).


- Growth in all revenue streams – growth in all areas

- Another acquisition (of high quality)



Good one TJ!!!THanks for the info!

[trader_jackson]

Underpriced? PE at current price is 71.2 compared to MET at 5.3 and Sum at 11.5

Lewylewylewy, couta1, and Left field as you all kindly pointed out to me less than 2 months ago that my PE's were wildly wrong and inaccurate, please kindly take note of the PE now being listed as 12.82 (on nzx.com), well down from the apparent 71.2 just over 1 month earlier...
(also take note that the share price has rallied almost 10% in the past 2 days so the PE would have been even lower just a short time ago)

As I've said before, sometimes looking at a headline figure, such as the PE on the nzx.com, with seemingly no research beyond this headline figure, and then comparing it to companies that have been listed for many years, can be very very deceiving & misleading and result in lost opportunities ;)

It is good to see Mr Market is no longer writing off ARV's potential (as much)

Have a good evening ;)

[King1212]

Lewylewylewy, couta1, and Left field as you all kindly pointed out to me less than 2 months ago that my PE's were wildly wrong and inaccurate, please kindly take note of the PE now being listed as 12.82 (on nzx.com), well down from the apparent 71.2 just over 1 month earlier...
(also take note that the share price has rallied almost 10% in the past 2 days so the PE would have been even lower just a short time ago)

As I've said before, sometimes looking at a headline figure, such as the PE on the nzx.com, with seemingly no research beyond this headline figure, and then comparing it to companies that have been listed for many years, can be very very deceiving & misleading and result in lost opportunities ;)

It is good to see Mr Market is no longer writing off ARV's potential (as much)

Have a good evening ;)


Thanks for for the email TJ. The report is very informative. Will keep Arvida for long term!

[Hectorplains]

Lewylewylewy, couta1, and Left field as you all kindly pointed out to me less than 2 months ago that my PE's were wildly wrong and inaccurate, please kindly take note of the PE now being listed as 12.82 (on nzx.com), well down from the apparent 71.2 just over 1 month earlier...
(also take note that the share price has rallied almost 10% in the past 2 days so the PE would have been even lower just a short time ago) ;)

Hey T-J

Is there detail of further 'brownfield" development beyond the 150 unit / 40 odd care bed's? I must admit I'd written this stock off and invested in IFT as a better cover for the sector. Happy to look again.

Cheers

Hec

[King1212]

Did someone just sell 500k plus shares?

[King1212]

http://arvida.co.nz/MediaReleaseAttachments/282941/236195.pdf

[King1212]

https://www.anzshareandbondtrading.co.nz/dynamic/announcement.aspx?id=4181734

[King1212]

https://www.nzx.com/files/attachments/241628.pdf

Juicy dividend ...1.1c....

[trader_jackson]

Great to see 150 units are well on track, probably completed in 1 to 2 years, not bad for a company with a capitalization 1/4th of SUM, and paying a near 5% dividend... what I really did liked to see (bold):

"Yesterday we received resource consent for the proposed Rhodes on Cashmere development which entails 28 apartments and a combination of 33 care suites and care beds. With the delivery of new care suites, we will be providing up to Hospital-level care in premium quality rooms."

- This part is nice, but what got me excited:

"This will enable us to place an ORA over the bed, thereby reducing our capital invested and improving investment returns to shareholders. We are also starting the process to implement the care suite model on existing beds within the portfolio."

- I would almost deem the bold above as price sensitive! Seems like ARV is about to make a whole lot more money on their care bed portfolio, both new and existing (quite a turn around from the few that had dogged this part of the business not long ago)...

With 94% occupancy across the portfolio, ARV are extremely efficient.

On another note, I found it interesting that the chairman noted: "We are mindful of external economic and political factors that could impact our economy and the concerns at the level of house price inflation and household debt in New Zealand." Lucky ARV are not on a huge building-spree, nor dramatically exposed to what some have labeled "the biggest ponzi scheme ever": Auckland Housing market... if these things do make a turn for the worst, ARV should be well sheltered, well at least compared to the bigger 3 (1 in particular mentioned before;))

[In4a$]

There will be a few of us excited holders : Lets hope management keep performing :)

[trader_jackson]

seems like there were a few people who waited till the final few minutes to read the meeting's address, in particular the bold above...;)

[winner69]

seems like there were a few people who waited till the final few minutes to read the meeting's address, in particular the bold above...;)

$1.20 eh

Obviously didn't want to miss out next week when the price roars away

[winner69]

Whats going on with ARV t_j

Share price heading south again

[OldGuy]

Ouch. Depth of market supply is currently 9 times greater than market demand...

[trader_jackson]

Whats going on with ARV t_j

Share price heading south again

Not to sure... once again ARV is trading the cheapest in the sector (when excluding the non-paper fair value changes that often end up accounting for most of total net profit)

Maybe we are going back to the crazy undervalued days where retail panic ruled the market, before ARV produced what was a fantastic set of results?

[King1212]

today is dividend payment...just received news update....

[winner69]

Hey t_j, they after more of your money

Hope you got a bit spare lying around

Spose getting bigger and bigger is good

[trader_jackson]

Shows ARV’s continued increasing focus on development, allowing increased build rate etc etc (something that the market continues to ignore), while having less risk due to strong defensive earnings


(no longer just the ‘old care bed focused dog with Ritchie’ as some once inferred not that many years ago…)


ARV’s dividends over the past few years will pay for my rights (great right?), so no issue for me… more than happy to take more than my allocation! (although I don’t think this is possible)


Fantastic that the vendors wanted shares, 30% in fact of the total purchase price… shows they believe in the ARV’s model, plans and ambitiousGreat that they are immediately accretive to underlying earnings.


Hard not to get excited really!

[trader_jackson]

Ouch. Depth of market supply is currently 9 times greater than market demand...

Now, buy orders are higher than sell orders

How things can change in just a week...

(note: don't look at buy and sells... it can be very misleading, eg better to look at the underlying company fundamentals)

[trader_jackson]

Now, buy orders are higher than sell orders

How things can change in just a week...

(note: don't look at buy and sells... it can be very misleading, eg better to look at the underlying company fundamentals)

Oh look! There are now 10.5x the number of buys, as there are sells (and 10x more buyers than sellers)!
Not that this means much...

Now trading at $1.22... seems those who got in back in Mid August at $1.20 and already looking at a nice small return

[trader_jackson]

Shows ARV’s continued increasing focus on development, allowing increased build rate etc etc (something that the market continues to ignore), while having less risk due to strong defensive earnings


Finished on $1.23, up 3.4%... maybe re-rating has already begun? (again...)

[see weed]

So if I buy 20,000 shares for $1.23c= $24,600. That gives me 2857 rights at $1.05c= $2,999. Then $24,600+$2,999= $27,599, with av price for shares=$1.207c. Or could wait for dust to settle and buy in after rights issue, when sp goes back to $1.10 to $1.15c, or I could be wrong:).

[King1212]

So if I buy 20,000 shares for $1.23c= $24,600. That gives me 2857 rights at $1.05c= $2,999. Then $24,600+$2,999= $27,599, with av price for shares=$1.207c. Or could wait for dust to settle and buy in after rights issue, when sp goes back to $1.10 to $1.15c, or I could be wrong:).

You might be right.....we will see...

[trader_jackson]

So if I buy 20,000 shares for $1.23c= $24,600. That gives me 2857 rights at $1.05c= $2,999. Then $24,600+$2,999= $27,599, with av price for shares=$1.207c. Or could wait for dust to settle and buy in after rights issue, when sp goes back to $1.10 to $1.15c, or I could be wrong:).

Opened at $1.29, an all time high, currently at $1.25, up nearly 10 cents since yesterday's low... so you could keep waiting around, while the re-rating continues, but it would seem this 'tactic' is proving costly ;);)


Disclosure: I don't know where the share price is going

[winner69]

Opened at $1.29, an all time high, currently at $1.25, up nearly 10 cents since yesterday's low... so you could keep waiting around, while the re-rating continues, but it would seem this 'tactic' is proving costly ;);)


Disclosure: I don't know where the share price is going

Exciting eh - you doing well mate and being rewarded for your faith in this outfit

Can't be in everything - I think i'll stick to my boring old Summerset in this sector

But you go for - maybe $1.60 by Christmas

[In4a$]

Opened at $1.29, an all time high, currently at $1.25, up nearly 10 cents since yesterday's low... so you could keep waiting around, while the re-rating continues, but it would seem this 'tactic' is proving costly ;);)


Disclosure: I don't know where the share price is going
I reckon price will come back a bit with re-rating, but for those of us who took a punt on this early this year things a looking good. Cheapest in sector and showing great promise. Might by a few more when price settles down.

[trader_jackson]

I decided to have a deeper look at the numbers:
While the market is still to busy pushing up the valuations of MET, SUM and RYM, below should explain the 'rerating' (ie share price moving steeply upwards in recent days) for ARV (for the few that are interested...)

Pre-acquisition confirmed development opportunity:
Units: 150 (total units: 1001 so 15% increase, 43.6% of total portfolio)
Beds: 37 (total beds: 1296 so 2.9% increase, 56.4% of total portfolio)

Post-acquisition confirmed development opportunity:
Units: 260 (total units: 1248 so 20.8% increase, 47.4% of new portfolio)
Beds: 137 (total beds: 1384 so 9.9% increase, 52.6% of new portfolio)

I am thinking these units will all be built in around 2 years... ie a built rate of 130 a year, maybe if things were a bit slow and it took 3 years, built rate would still be 86 (all about the build rates on the high margin stuff right?)... this is quite a step up from 32 units and beds developed in the previous FY... and we haven't even begun looking at greenfield and/or further other brownfield development (via acquisition)

74% of new total portfolio is needs based which is nice to know (not so affected if there was to be a big downturn in property... and gearing is also ridiculously low... still got a good 33m odd in that ANZ thingy to draw down for more EPS accretive acquisitions)

But what is of particular interest, is that the "highest margin" Apartments/villas have increased by 55.7%: from 443 (19.3% of total porfolio) to 690 (26.2% of new portfolio)

As I have mentioned on several occasions, for several months, it is clear they are moving more into development, on brownfield sites for now while they further refine their internal development team (logical really)... but as the origional IPO booklet noted, greenfield development is the "3rd step" (did anyone actually see this? page 14 of the IPO booklet... I recently had a read over it again for comparative purposes :)) I suppose everyone was to worried about how many accounting issues there would be integrating all these villages?)

It has also occured to me (and I'm sure others), that it is hard to put an exact value on ARV, due to the 'unknown' nature of development and acquisitions... but I suppose I am just happy to keep getting my "2x term deposit" gross dividend and know that development capability and delivery, like the dividend, will only increase in time :t_up:

[Snow Leopard]

Am I right in thinking this is going to result in a 20%+ increase in the number of shares?

And did they not do something similar last year as well?

Well I am not to sure about this as a growth strategy!

Best Wishes
Paper Tiger

[kiora]

And more care beds,higher margin?

[trader_jackson]

Am I right in thinking this is going to result in a 20%+ increase in the number of shares?

And did they not do something similar last year as well?

Well I am not to sure about this as a growth strategy!

Best Wishes
Paper Tiger

Yes they will be increasing their share capital, rather than borrowing lots (which they could do with a 80m facility)

Yes they did do something similar last year, at just over 80 cents I believe

Yes this intial growth strategy of non-organic (although still EPS accreditation) could be seen as expensive and not ideal... but they are the 'youngest' retirement stock on the NZX (not even 2 years old!)... given this, I would be very worried if they decided to do a heavy borrowing 'SUM maximum effort' style greenfield building of 400 units pa.

Having said that, this could well happen in a few years, once they have had 'practice' developing their internal skills, using acquisition of high quality brownfield sites, while increasing their geographic spread and knowledge and customer recognition that comes with this (which this latest acquisition, like the last, has done).

ARV's product offering is quite different to that of SUM and MET, in that they offer a very, very good continuum of care, hence high quality care beds are an integral part (and one of the reasons why ARV has very high occupancy, in both beds and apartments). What will be most interesting, in regards to care bed margin, will be how placing the ORA over a bed goes.

On another note, 5:00pm is the cut off for the 1 for 7... if last years rights offer price is anything to go by, the share price will be dramatically higher this time next year!;)

[unhuman]

Just received the offer and I'm all in.

[trader_jackson]

Just received the offer and I'm all in.

You know I'll be taking up my full allocation :t_up:... wish I could apply for more really... if it is anything like the capital raising last year, this time next year share price will probably be over $1.80 ;)

[Valuegrowth]

It has implied price around 1.26.


52 week: 0.80-1.26


It has some support and It can pass its 52 weeks high provided we see strong market. This is a kind of long term play for me.

[King1212]

So if I buy 20,000 shares for $1.23c= $24,600. That gives me 2857 rights at $1.05c= $2,999. Then $24,600+$2,999= $27,599, with av price for shares=$1.207c. Or could wait for dust to settle and buy in after rights issue, when sp goes back to $1.10 to $1.15c, or I could be wrong:).

you might be right....:eek2:

[King1212]

Extra shares issued today as apart of new villages accusation. Can anyone advise whether additional share added will effect the current SP short term? Thanks guys....

Number of securities in existence after issue 294,456,498

[trader_jackson]

Extra shares issued today as apart of new villages accusation. Can anyone advise whether additional share added will effect the current SP short term? Thanks guys....

Number of securities in existence after issue 294,456,498

Earnings per share, including the issue of new securities, is expected to rise by 6%, so a share price rise of 6% from pre announcement ($1.17 was it?) could be expected (so you'd think $1.24 could be reasonable)

But now that the bargain basement offer (like the previous capital raise at 84 cents) is no longer available, it would seem some are happy not to wait for results to confirm a 6% rise, and instead take some capital gain (understandable I suppose), hence the sell side... it just means ARV is back to being even cheaper than before (trading at an even lower underlying PE!)

Interested to hear other thoughts...
(and it would be great if someone could confirm, or not, my logic)

[King1212]

Earnings per share, including the issue of new securities, is expected to rise by 6%, so a share price rise of 6% from pre announcement ($1.17 was it?) could be expected (so you'd think $1.24 could be reasonable)

But now that the bargain basement offer (like the previous capital raise at 84 cents) is no longer available, it would seem some are happy not to wait for results to confirm a 6% rise, and instead take some capital gain (understandable I suppose), hence the sell side... it just means ARV is back to being even cheaper than before (trading at an even lower underlying PE!)

Interested to hear other thoughts...
(and it would be great if someone could confirm, or not, my logic)

yes TJ...I discussed it with one of my mate(accountant) today...your calculation is spot on..so Arvida is way undervalue with subtainable dividend...thanks to re-assure me TJ!

[winner69]

Earnings per share, including the issue of new securities, is expected to rise by 6%, so a share price rise of 6% from pre announcement ($1.17 was it?) could be expected (so you'd think $1.24 could be reasonable)

But now that the bargain basement offer (like the previous capital raise at 84 cents) is no longer available, it would seem some are happy not to wait for results to confirm a 6% rise, and instead take some capital gain (understandable I suppose), hence the sell side... it just means ARV is back to being even cheaper than before (trading at an even lower underlying PE!)

Interested to hear other thoughts...
(and it would be great if someone could confirm, or not, my logic)

....trading at an even lower PE (on forecast 'normalised' earnings)

I reckon rerated to allow for execution risk

[King1212]

https://www.nbr.co.nz/article/housing-market-plays-bigger-role-retirement-village-operators-take-more-debt-fnzc-report

arvida concentrated on brownfield project and care focus....also see the great Moose comment!

[trader_jackson]

https://www.nbr.co.nz/article/housing-market-plays-bigger-role-retirement-village-operators-take-more-debt-fnzc-report

arvida concentrated on brownfield project and care focus....also see the great Moose comment!

Yes great article, and I'm sure many have seen it.

What I quite like is the "residents of serviced apartments and care facilities don't have much choice on moving in or not and may, therefore, still sell their houses even in a property market downturn"... those companies with a focus on care and serviced apartment side of things (ie ARV and RYM) are therefore alot less vulnerable to property fluctuations than those who are focus on building lovely villas.
(Building lots of villas + borrowing heavily to do so = SUM )

winner69 interesting you mention execution risk, as I would have thought brownfield development would be alot less risky than greenfield. ARV has come a long long way in almost 2 years, from the initial mentions that there would be huge accounting issues (which never happened?)... to the association that ARV was essentially just a "low margin" care facility only (which is certainly not the case now). Several villages have also been successfully integrated, opening up new regions and increasing EPS...
Could one therefore expect that as ARV gets older and more experienced a higher PE could be implied? (as execution risk continually decreases - or is there another execution risk I am missing?)

[King1212]

it looks like 115 is the button....from now I think will see sp going north slowly....what do u think TJ?

[trader_jackson]

wow 90% of rights taken up! This is like crazy high! Just shows the very committed long term shareholders who understand Arvida well (even much better than I do!) Very pleased.

I remember seeing this recently: "SeaDragon Chairman Colin Groves said investor support for the rights offer was a strong endorsement of the company’s strategy and its potential..." and that was for barely 70% of the rights on offer...

https://www.nzx.com/companies/ARV/announcements/291221

[trader_jackson]

https://www.nzx.com/companies/ARV/announcements/291270

$1.13 for the shortfall book build? All gone like that.. and not even 1% off where it was just a few days ago (when it was trading at $1.14 for some reason)... despite wide market (NZX) weakness, particuarly evident with the other retirement stocks, seems people are more than happy to support (with 90% acceptance) and snap this stock up!

The 90% acceptances probably indicate extremely strong village acceptances, so they are clearly confident in themselves and the results they can each provide to the group.

[King1212]

https://www.nzx.com/companies/ARV/announcements/291270

$1.13 for the shortfall book build? All gone like that.. and not even 1% off where it was just a few days ago (when it was trading at $1.14 for some reason)... despite wide market (NZX) weakness, particuarly evident with the other retirement stocks, seems people are more than happy to support (with 90% acceptance) and snap this stock up!

The 90% acceptances probably indicate extremely strong village acceptances, so they are clearly confident in themselves and the results they can each provide to the group.

Excellent!!:t_up:

[trader_jackson]

Oceania Healthcare is often compared to ARV... I note their profits are up almost 200%.. hmm ;)

[King1212]

[QUOTE=trader_jackson;643997]Oceania Healthcare is often compared to ARV... I note their profits are up almost 200%.. hmm ;)[/QUOTE

Interim result is coming with juicy second quater dividend....

[King1212]

Great result!!!! Another dividend coming up!!!

https://www.anzshareandbondtrading.co.nz/dynamic/announcement.aspx?id=4305022

[OldGuy]

18% underlying earning growth is not fabulous for such a small company in its infancy, but at least its growing!

[trader_jackson]

https://www.nzx.com/companies/ARV/announcements/293126

Agreed, fantastic result, with gearing at an extremly conservative 14%. Arvida... origionally seen as a 'dog', that would have endless accounting issues and next to no growth... and here we are not even 2 years after listing, and despite many still refusing to acknowledge it as a retirement company, EPS is up 18%, and they haven't even got to the fun part: stage 3 of their growth plan (greenfield development).
(Another great aquasition today as well!)
Disclosure: very happy holder :t_up:

[King1212]

18% underlying earning growth is not fabulous for such a small company in its infancy, but at least its growing!

Arvida is growing steadily and paying dividend quarterly. How many companies that do pay dividend?

[OldGuy]

SUM, MET and RYM

[trader_jackson]

SUM, MET and RYM

He meant a dividend, not peanuts ;)

[OldGuy]

anyone holding stocks in this sector as a pure dividend play should not be investing at all IMHO.

The vast majority of gains to be made are from SP growth...

[couta1]

anyone holding stocks in this sector as a pure dividend play should not be investing at all IMHO.

The vast majority of gains to be made are from SP growth... Spot on there.

[King1212]

anyone holding stocks in this sector as a pure dividend play should not be investing at all IMHO.

The vast majority of gains to be made are from SP growth...

I gained almost 25% in SP growth on Arvida least than 1 year.....plus its dividend:sleep:

[winner69]

How much of the 31% earnings growth came from 'first full six months of Aria'?

[trader_jackson]

I'm not to sure, I'm just happy with the 18% increase in EPS (among other things, such as an increasing development pipeline)
On another note, at least no Arvida retirement villages are being compared to a prison... ;)
http://www.stuff.co.nz/business/86798447/retirement-village-so-big-and-efficient-its-like-prison-planned-for-auckland

Certainly looking forward to a strong full year result :t_up:

[trader_jackson]

Nothing to see here, just good (but also unsurprising) to see Forsyth's target price rise to $1.42... wasn't that long ago when it was at $1.10... in fact wasn't even that long ago (year or so) when the share price was in the 80's... crazy stuff :t_up:

[Snow Leopard]

Added a minimum size chunk of these to the NZX portfolio.

See how it goes for a while.

DYOR

Best Wishes
Paper Tiger

[trader_jackson]

Added a minimum size chunk of these to the NZX portfolio.

See how it goes for a while.

DYOR

Best Wishes
Paper Tiger

Good to see it has MET your approval ;)

(If you'd brought a year ago you'd already be up 25% + 5% in dividends ;) approximately speaking)

[King1212]

https://www.nzx.com/files/attachments/249161.pdf

[trader_jackson]

Great presentation above, not just for Arvida but for the sector as a whole...

In this interest rate increasing environment, it is nice to see Arvida is low gearing... not surprised at the impending bed shortage, should bold well for ARV's potentially 'game changer' ORA over care beds

Nice ralley these past few days, on good volume too... quite the opposite to 'the big 3'

I note there are some large orders lined up, while the sellers have seeminly disappeared...

Forsyth have picked it to bolt into the NZX 50 in the upcoming adjustments, something that will no doubt support the share price, and most of all give ARV, a company listed for less than 2 years old, more coverage (don't know if anybody but forsyth actually cover it) which could also lead to further support.

But don't listen to me, my research is a joke according to some...

Disclosure: Extremely tempting to buy more, but SUM diversification may be better ;)

[King1212]

Juicy dividend coming just in time to buy Christmas stuff:t_up:

[SilverBack]

Great presentation above, not just for Arvida but for the sector as a whole...

In this interest rate increasing environment, it is nice to see Arvida is low gearing... not surprised at the impending bed shortage, should bold well for ARV's potentially 'game changer' ORA over care beds

Nice ralley these past few days, on good volume too... quite the opposite to 'the big 3'

I note there are some large orders lined up, while the sellers have seeminly disappeared...

Forsyth have picked it to bolt into the NZX 50 in the upcoming adjustments, something that will no doubt support the share price, and most of all give ARV, a company listed for less than 2 years old, more coverage (don't know if anybody but forsyth actually cover it) which could also lead to further support.

But don't listen to me, my research is a joke according to some...

Disclosure: Extremely tempting to buy more, but SUM diversification may be better ;)

Yes, and I still remember Forsyth promoting Feltex! As for impending bed shortage, I think you need to take into account the Government's reluctance to hand over money for Retirement Homes to get fat on. It was not long ago that the industry was complaining bitterly that the Govt was underfunding and a number of operators sold out or restrained from providing care services. Retirement providers are currently making their money from gains on accommodation licences and so essentially an investment in this industry is an investment in real estate. If the RE market goes backwards then pensioners moving out of their homes will not have the same where-withall to buy into retirement villages and so their licence values will be affected.

[troyvdh]

SilverBack..this probably aint the right forum for this...I agree that these companies are largely a RE play.
However not many folk have predicted a "backwards" movement in RE.Over the past 100 or so years...RE (at least in CHCH) has averaged about 7% compounding.
In the past month or so..Ive been looking at retirement entites for my mother.Anywhere between 200K to say $400..gets something reasonable.Ok one looses 30% in the first 3 ? years.
Whats the ave price in NZ now..about 500K ?.
Its my belief that folk will still move into retirements homes...and that in all likelihood the "kids' will just get less....what ever the RE market does.Cheers

[Snow Leopard]

Doubled up today.

I am as retired as I want to be, NZX portfolio wise now.

Best Wishes
Paper Tiger

[trader_jackson]

Dividend? What fantastic dividend?

Share price unchanged, despite a juicy dividend (extremely juicy by 'retirement sector' standards) ex date today.

For comparative purposes: rest of the sector was down today, SUM (or some ;)) were smashed... but don't listen to me, my 'research' is, quote one member, "a joke"

[winner69]

T_j you a bit slack these days

ARV to be in the NZX50 before Christmas and you haven't told us yet

So I'll do it for you


I always find it ironic that many get added to the NZX50 not because of their own performance but because real losers have to drop out - like this time Orion and Tower

[trader_jackson]

You are quite right, I have been slack and although on the predictions 2017 thread I did say it would be an NZX 50 company, I forgot to mention it on here.

Crazy to think I did predict on 2 January 2016 that ARV would be an NZX 50 company (I'm sure some people, well one member at least, would have dismissed this as "a joke") but here we are, December 9 with the official announcement...

winner69 I note you were a bit slack ;) and forgot to put the link down... without a link some people might still think what I'm saying, about ARV in particular, is "a joke"
https://www.nzx.com/files/attachments/249831.pdf

ARV has a market cap over 400m... meanwhile OHE (the billion dollar listing around 2 years ago), until Friday, was nearly $100m less valuable than ARV, then there is TWR which is barely a third of the size of ARV... some might say, ARV was "well positioned" to get into the NZX 50...

Looking forward to that nice dividend payment in 6 days time, that isn't peanuts..., and of course I'm sure ARV's 2017 performance will be intriguing (they will have a hard act to follow after producing a stunning, best in class, total shareholder return for the 2016 year) :t_up:

[winner69]

Closing in on 130 again t_j - good eh

Be funny if HBL beat it to 130 again

[Joshuatree]

Arvida thrashing the the other big incumbents s/p wise. Re a cent away from a new high, the others; experiencing death cross twitches etc.Who would have thought!?. The efficiencies and synergies of bringing together this disparate bunch of retirement villages must have been executed extremely well.Other reasons?
Arvida On Track to Deliver Strong FY17 Result (https://www.nzx.com/companies/ARV/announcements/293126)

[King1212]

Arvida thrashing the the other big incumbents s/p wise. Re a cent away from a new high, the others; experiencing death cross twitches etc.Who would have thought!?. The efficiencies and synergies of bringing together this disparate bunch of retirement villages must have been executed extremely well.Other reasons?
Arvida On Track to Deliver Strong FY17 Result (https://www.nzx.com/companies/ARV/announcements/293126)

The secret Is organic growth..brownfield development..others just keep buying villages without expanding it...

[trader_jackson]

Arvida thrashing the the other big incumbents s/p wise. Re a cent away from a new high, the others; experiencing death cross twitches etc.Who would have thought!?. The efficiencies and synergies of bringing together this disparate bunch of retirement villages must have been executed extremely well.Other reasons?
Arvida On Track to Deliver Strong FY17 Result (https://www.nzx.com/companies/ARV/announcements/293126)

"Who would have thought" - quite possibly the quote of the year when it comes to describing ARV...

A far cry from the days where the talk on this very thread was centred around all the accounting/integration issues, an exit plan for those all blacks, and how ARV was just a "low margin care bed" operator (despite what the prospects clearly outlined... that... plus brownfield and eventually greenfield development)

Some people (or should I say SUM?) might be surprised to see it produce best in sector returns this year, although for me some of this has been a 'catch up' to where it really should have been before. I believe there is still further room to run (Forsyth's recent re-rating would support this).. the exciting part, greenfield development, hasn't even begun and ARV is already on a tear!

What is surprising to me is that it looks like some people/users still refuse to call, compare and talk about ARV in the same space as the other (and incumbent) big 3, despite now being a $400m+ market cap NZX 50 company (coincidentally one of the predictions I made back on 2 or 3 Jan this year).

What has hurt the likes of RYM and SUM recently, in my view, has been the prospect the interest rates are almost certain to rise, and probably quite fast... (ARV has the 2nd lowest gearing apart from MET)... SUM particualrly is on a borrowing spree (which was smart when interest rates could only go lower, or stay very low), but turning into a small double edged sword now... ARV also has a fantastic continuum of care, something I have mentioned several times, something that insulates them (in my view) slightly from any slowdown in property. RYM also has a good continuum of care, but SUM and especially MET are not quite as 'well rounded' (a looming shortage of beds, and putting an ORA over those carebeds are two more recent factors that will help).

As always do your own research, (mine has been called "a joke" before)... I could only mentioned a few of the things I believe is seperating ARV from "the rest", at least for now... meanwhile I'll be only to happy to see steady growth (that isn't supported solely rampant borrowing), and a nice above-bank-term-deposit-rate dividend to top things off.

[Joshuatree]

Thanks guys.heres the 1 year s/p performance from NZX
ARV 44.15%
MET 19.24%

SUM 13.35%
RYM ​1.23% shocker