Scales - SCL

[Beagle]

Why do I have this feeling about market expectations getting ahead of themselves? And all because of the humble apple?

Disc: Holding - for now.

:mellow:

Oh I don't know about that mate. Volumes 13% greater than IPO forecast and currency dropping by 20% in recent months is a pretty powerful combination of events !! Winner might get his $2.60 well before Xmas !!

[macduffy]

Oh I don't know about that mate. Volumes 13% greater than IPO forecast and currency dropping by 20% in recent months is a pretty powerful combination of events !! Winner might get his $2.60 well before Xmas !!

Yes, I should have been more specific about future expectations. It was the 50% SP increase to $3 that had me worried!

[Beagle]

Well the market is just waking up to this stock. Currency bias is weaker, harvest is strong, circa 40% additional acreage coming on stream in FY18, inclusion in the NZX50, Trans pacific partnership agreement imminent, new $30m Auckland coolstore due for completion this year e.t.c.e.t.c..

[Balance]

Well the market is just waking up to this stock. Currency bias is weaker, harvest is strong, circa 40% additional acreage coming on stream in FY18, inclusion in the NZX50, Trans pacific partnership agreement imminent, new $30m Auckland coolstore due for completion this year e.t.c.e.t.c..

Roger, you are crying into your Apple Cider as you celebrate? Haha

[Beagle]

Roger, you are crying into your Apple Cider as you celebrate? Haha

LOL - what a good idea...I might have a few tonight, its been an "interesting" week.

[Beagle]

Roger, you are crying into your Apple Cider as you celebrate? Haha

LOL - what a good idea...I might have a few tonight, its been an "interesting" week. Every cloud has a silver lining...while I was away on my HNZ "holiday" I was loading up big time on SCL !!
Maybe I should thank STMOD :lol:

[Cricketfan]

Why do I have this feeling about market expectations getting ahead of themselves? And all because of the humble apple?

Disc: Holding - for now.

:mellow:

This thread reminds me a bit of the HNZ one a few months back. Everything was looking rosy, blue skies etc etc. Let's hope nothing bad happens to the apple supply/demand in the next few months.

[vin]

This thread reminds me a bit of the HNZ one a few months back. Everything was looking rosy, blue skies etc etc. Let's hope nothing bad happens to the apple supply/demand in the next few months.

Yes agreed, was thinking this earlier. Thinking of the dangers in owning SCL....

[gv1]

Thats why its good to be aware of news...lots of reading and research. Every stock is risky...if an external factor comes into play. That's what exactly happended to HNZ.

[winner69]

Hope they charging fonterra heaps for storing the excess milk powder

[BobbyMorocco]

Thats why its good to be aware of news...lots of reading and research. Every stock is risky...if an external factor comes into play. That's what exactly happended to HNZ.

Exactly. In the meantime, let's make hay while the sun shines.

[winner69]

Roger, you are crying into your Apple Cider as you celebrate? Haha

I love the Spring & Fern cider

Get it in 2 litre riggers from their pub in Tinakori Road

Cool

[Regi]

Thanks for your views all. I've been trying to time buy-ins with THL, SCL and TEN but it seems the market is loving these guys at the moment (with good reason, primarily thanks to the exchange rate) and the longer I wait the less of a bargain they become. Might have to bite the bullet!

[Beagle]

Hope they charging fonterra heaps for storing the excess milk powder


I love the Spring & Fern cider

Get it in 2 litre riggers from their pub in Tinakori Road

Cool

Oh the irony..yep that huge new $30m coolstore in Auckland has Fonterra as its major customer IIRC. Just heard on the radio Fonterra fined one hundred and something thousand for discharging waste into the Rangatiki river on six occasions...they can't do anything right at the moment can they !!

[winner69]

Thanks for your views all. I've been trying to time buy-ins with THL, SCL and TEN but it seems the market is loving these guys at the moment (with good reason, primarily thanks to the exchange rate) and the longer I wait the less of a bargain they become. Might have to bite the bullet!

No point waiting Reg ...just do it

Trying to time entry on a stock that hasn't really been in a downtrend is foolish. If its got potential just buy. Trick is to time the exit.

But that not problem with Scales for some time.

When they announce a guidance for FY16 it will be amazing. Might be even better than noodles estimate.

$2.60 a cert by Xmas .... $3 by Easter and then this time next year maybe $4 is on the cards

Just think this time next year the $s will be in the bank and then they talk about new markets and another record crop. Wow

Instos haven't really been buying in earnest yet so you still have early mover advantage. New month next week ......instos might wake up. The trigger might have today's announcement

Reg, just do it if you are convinced.

[gv1]

Stop farting around as theybsay[/QUOTE]

Aye..easy mate.

[winner69]

Aye..easy mate.

Ok gv, deleted that bit

[gv1]

Hi Winner..all said in good spirit..pulling your leg mate. U don't have to delete that.

[couta1]

This thread reminds me a bit of the HNZ one a few months back. Everything was looking rosy, blue skies etc etc. Let's hope nothing bad happens to the apple supply/demand in the next few months.
I sold out of this stock a few months ago after listening to too much noise on here, now the noise is going in the opposite direction so that's probably a different kinda warning sign. IMHO apple markets are more risky than a stock like HNZ and things can change quickly so for me a lot of the upside has gone from my sale price to the current price and I won't be entering now. There is another stock I'm looking to enter on a long term basis which I believe has a lot more upside and it doesn't even pay a dividend:cool:

[nextbigthing]

This thread reminds me a bit of the HNZ one a few months back. Everything was looking rosy, blue skies etc etc. Let's hope nothing bad happens to the apple supply/demand in the next few months.

Yes spot on. All this talk of how high the shareprice could potentially go etc. Hopefully it does, but just be careful of all the hype.

[winner69]

Another chart is tossed into the bin, absolutely no use now

Channel well and truly smashed ....can't even recalibrate either

Might need to revert to ATR trailing to ensure profits are locked. But probably wasting time at this stage as the price heads to 260 .... 300 .....(stop there winner)

[Beagle]

Another chart is tossed into the bin, absolutely no use now

Channel well and truly smashed ....can't even recalibrate either

Might need to revert to ATR trailing to ensure profits are locked. But probably wasting time at this stage as the price heads to 260 .... 300 .....(stop there winner)

That chart is a thing of great beauty. Time for a bevvy or two.... cider of course :)

[noodles]

I sold out of this stock a few months ago after listening to too much noise on here, now the noise is going in the opposite direction so that's probably a different kinda warning sign. IMHO apple markets are more risky than a stock like HNZ and things can change quickly so for me a lot of the upside has gone from my sale price to the current price and I won't be entering now. There is another stock I'm looking to enter on a long term basis which I believe has a lot more upside and it doesn't even pay a dividend:cool:
c'mon Couta. Don't be a hold out. What are you buying?

[Gunny]

Love the chart.

2.01 at close, got in at 1.54 before last divi. Also got in to CVT at 4.28 not so long ago after selling down on HNZ which I got into at 94. Not so good on the rest of the holdings. Hanging out for AIR announcement also.

Now the increase in Scales is breaking my percentage of portfolio guide by a heap. Can't bring myself to sell down. Problems, problems!!!. I may just take up drinking like Roger (its rum where I am) and not look for a while, maybe a year or two.

Gunny

[Balance]

Yes spot on. All this talk of how high the shareprice could potentially go etc. Hopefully it does, but just be careful of all the hype.

Timely reminder and totally appropriate. SCL is a commodity stock at the end of the day and should always trade at a discount to market. Having written that, it looks like it is indeed all system go for the company in the year ahead - increased apple crop and harvest, low NZ$, coolstore expansion. Go with the flow but keep an eye on the weather!

[tim23]

So Comvita should be treated as a commodity stock too and be discounted?

[winner69]

Apples from Scales are PREMIUM APPLES, not the commoditised ones

[winner69]

I was going to say First NZ Capital just don't get do they noodles? Only $2.35 I think it said ...time for them to redo their numbers

But your post has been deleted

[Beagle]

I was going to say First NZ Capital just don't get do they noodles? Only $2.35 I think it said ...time for them to redo their numbers

But your post has been deleted

I understand First N.Z.'s new $2.35 target came out the day before the company's update so as you suggest mate it could be a case of them having to re-do their numbers.
Any way you slice and dice this thing or even peel the apple first :), it still looks very good value to me at $2.00.
Disc - I topped up in the early 190's earlier this week, now my biggest holding. Go you beauty !!

[tim23]

Still 5% net @ $2.00 with dividend upside possible so another 1c dividend gets us to $2.20 quite comfortably and then a few more cents if re-rated as growth stock?

[Xerof]

A friendly word of caution:

this season is nearly done, nice lifts in volumes and prices above forecast. Already advised, may be now priced in, may still have a bit more to go.
shareprice has quickly rerated on rather low volume, chart looks parabolic, ripe for hesitation and retracement. Think flagpoles and flags

the risk now turns to next seasons crop - frosts, hail, etc etc, months to now wait and see how it will pan out.
The worry warts will worry, traders will trade, profits will be locked in, and the price IMO will fade into a flag formation after this rerate.

non holder, but a perspective to take into account, especially for those late to the party

over and out

[IAK]

A friendly word of caution:

this season is nearly done, nice lifts in volumes and prices above forecast. Already advised, may be now priced in, may still have a bit more to go.
shareprice has quickly rerated on rather low volume, chart looks parabolic, ripe for hesitation and retracement. Think flagpoles and flags

the risk now turns to next seasons crop - frosts, hail, etc etc, months to now wait and see how it will pan out.
The worry warts will worry, traders will trade, profits will be locked in, and the price IMO will fade into a flag formation after this rerate.

non holder, but a perspective to take into account, especially for those late to the party

over and out



Agree. Does anyone know if this will impact Scales?


Bee deaths raise fears of colony collapse http://www.stuff.co.nz/business/farming/agribusiness/70690694/bee-deaths-raise-fears-of-colony-collapse




Disc. moderate holder

[Xerof]

Agree. Does anyone know if this will impact Scales?


Bee deaths raise fears of colony collapse http://www.stuff.co.nz/business/farming/agribusiness/70690694/bee-deaths-raise-fears-of-colony-collapse


Disc. moderate holder
Xerof lifts his head from amongst the pages of the "Practical Beekeeping in New Zealand, Matheson and Reid, 2011 ed" to say:

It's a bit of a current concern - there is a remedy available to control what some think is the cause of these collapses, but the remedy is not yet available in NZ.

IMO, no impact unless the bee population is decimated - highly unlikely, and kiss your ass goodbye anyway if that happens - the Scales sp will be the least of your worries

Sponsor a bee - we need more bees

[winner69]

Great share price didn't fall back under 200 today. Longer it stays up there less chance of it ever being 1xx again

Xerof, I see no flags forming. All I see is a mast forming with a spinnaker being let out to make the most of the tail wind.

A huge billowing spinnaker with a big apple n it

I draw a picture when share price gets to $3

[couta1]

With all the evangelistic fervour and ramping on here of late maybe a good dose of fear might be in order to temper all that greed.

[stoploss]

With all the evangelistic fervour and ramping on here of late maybe a good dose of fear might be in order to temper all that greed.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=R8y6DJAeolo

[Xerof]

Great share price didn't fall back under 200 today. Longer it stays up there less chance of it ever being 1xx again

Xerof, I see no flags forming. All I see is a mast forming with a spinnaker being let out to make the most of the tail wind.

A huge billowing spinnaker with a big apple n it

I draw a picture when share price gets to $3
Winner, don't get me involved. I gave my highly balanced cautionary tale, and said over and out. I know some will give me a dose of personal vitriol if I dare to say too much against your beloved big apple.

I was pointing out the pole, not the flag! Has to have a clear top put in place yet, before we unfurl a flag

[winner69]

More mum and dad investors will be piling into Scales after reading this

http://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/news/article.cfm?c_id=3&objectid=11491370

Must invest in this booming industry. Can't go wrong

That spinnaker filling up nicely to power the share price along.

Enza was a famous yacht. I think Peter Blake was the skipper. Maybe Scales should sponsor Team NZ?

[Beagle]

More mum and dad investors will be piling into Scales after reading this

http://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/news/article.cfm?c_id=3&objectid=11491370

Must invest in this booming industry. Can't go wrong

That spinnaker filling up nicely to power the share price along.

Enza was a famous yacht. I think Peter Blake was the skipper. Maybe Scales should sponsor Team NZ?

Yes there was a very positive vibe on the ground in Napier yesterday.

[noodles]

A friendly word of caution:

this season is nearly done, nice lifts in volumes and prices above forecast. Already advised, may be now priced in, may still have a bit more to go.
shareprice has quickly rerated on rather low volume, chart looks parabolic, ripe for hesitation and retracement. Think flagpoles and flags

the risk now turns to next seasons crop - frosts, hail, etc etc, months to now wait and see how it will pan out.
The worry warts will worry, traders will trade, profits will be locked in, and the price IMO will fade into a flag formation after this rerate.

non holder, but a perspective to take into account, especially for those late to the party

over and out

I agree that SCL is looking technically over-bought.

But from a fundamental perspective, SCL is now trading in a lower FY15 pe multiple than when it listed at $1.60.

Any pull back will surely be temporary.

[noodles]

More mum and dad investors will be piling into Scales after reading this

http://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/news/article.cfm?c_id=3&objectid=11491370

Must invest in this booming industry. Can't go wrong

And Seeka (SEK.NZ) (Kiwifruit and Avo's)

In the last few months, I've had a great harvest out of SCL. I'm expecting the the SEK harvest will start when they report their half year results

[Beagle]

Noodles do you want to spill the beans of First N.Z's updated target and EPS guidance ?

[noodles]

Noodles do you want to spill the beans of First N.Z's updated target and EPS guidance ?
All the eps estimates are in the public domain.
http://www.4-traders.com/SCALES-CORP-LTD-21021561/revisions/

[noodles]

All the eps estimates are in the public domain.
http://www.4-traders.com/SCALES-CORP-LTD-21021561/revisions/
For the record, I think they are conservative.

[Beagle]

All the eps estimates are in the public domain.
http://www.4-traders.com/SCALES-CORP-LTD-21021561/revisions/

Thanks for the link. WOW, those new estimates look just like the SP graph...funny that isn't it :D
And interestingly look at this page, consensus value is $2.45 http://www.4-traders.com/SCALES-CORP-LTD-21021561/consensus/ must be something to do with the parabolic rise in EPS eh :)

[sb9]

All the eps estimates are in the public domain.
http://www.4-traders.com/SCALES-CORP-LTD-21021561/revisions/

Love the consensus target price of $2.45 :t_up:, bit more the First NZ's target of $2.35.

[Xerof]

Haha, I just knew I was poking a stick into a hornets nest - wow, borax and sarcasm in my face, lol.

Keep up the good work guys, it's been a great group analysis and recommendation - well done, but reread what I said - just be careful with parabolic moves when they stall.

[winner69]

Thanks for the link. WOW, those new estimates look just like the SP graph...funny that isn't it :D
And interestingly look at this page, consensus value is $2.45 http://www.4-traders.com/SCALES-CORP-LTD-21021561/consensus/ must be something to do with the parabolic rise in EPS eh :)

And you guys have so so much faith in these analysts. They are so so reactive aren't they.

As long as they say what you want to say it gives you the warm fuzzies eh.

Of course they are understated ......12 month target should be $3.00. Those 2 guru analysts will wake up when share price is $2.50 before Xmas

[winner69]

T
Haha, I just knew I was poking a stick into a hornets nest - wow, borax and sarcasm in my face, lol.

Keep up the good work guys, it's been a great group analysis and recommendation - well done, but reread what I said - just be careful with parabolic moves when they stall.

I having dreams mate ......dreams of the spinnaker looking like a flailing parabola high into the air .....the tail winds pushing the share price higher and higher ....into the blue sky

[winner69]

Apple turnovers I made last week were pretty good

Making apple strudel now ...with whipped cream yummy

[sb9]

Bit of reality check huh for the sp. But I think it's short term pull though, not too worried.

[Regi]

Bit of reality check huh for the sp. But I think it's short term pull though, not too worried.

My guess would be that it's simply some people taking profit after a good run and getting their stash together for CEN. Not worried at all, should easily be back over $2 by the weeks end.

[macduffy]

Headline in the Herald this morning gave me a bit of a turn.

"Apple slump deepens"

Apple, the company, of course, not apple, the fruit! Phew!

Still, SCL has had a great run and some correction is to be expected. Next few days trading should indicate whether or not that's "it" for the present.

[winner69]

Headline in the Herald this morning gave me a bit of a turn.

"Apple slump deepens"

Apple, the company, of course, not apple, the fruit! Phew!

Still, SCL has had a great run and some correction is to be expected. Next few days trading should indicate whether or not that's "it" for the present.

Scales on the rise again ....just a lull in the wind yesterday .... abit more breeze today and the spinnaker starting to fill nicely

[psychic]

Or a puff in a dying breeze winner?

[vin]

Looking forward to the results.

Scales Corporation Limited (SCL) advises that it will release its Interim
Results, for the six months ended 30 June 2015, prior to market opening on
Thursday 27 August 2015.

[Xerof]

Knock, knock, anyone home? Not much to be said on a dropping share price eh? Winds dropped.

A busy old week last week. Out of HNZ on Tuesday open to get into the CEN sale of the century lolly scramble. Now out of CEN and into SCL at 190 on Friday. Don't know why someone paid 195 on a 5 cent spread at the close, but they should apply for a job at Ballantynes doing their window dressing....

My mood has darkened a bit further on this dairy fiasco, so thinking a good short term safe haven might be horticulture and cool storage. The currency should have further to go on the downside. So SCL fits the bill, given it has had a partial pullback, although it may fill that gap to 185 on the chart.

from what others have been 'alluding', they should be in the NZX50 this week, so unless that news is very old hat to the fundies (probably is) it should garner support this week from the jonny come lately's

190 as an entry starter, good enough for me at this stage.

[percy]

A friendly word of caution:

this season is nearly done, nice lifts in volumes and prices above forecast. Already advised, may be now priced in, may still have a bit more to go.
shareprice has quickly rerated on rather low volume, chart looks parabolic, ripe for hesitation and retracement. Think flagpoles and flags

the risk now turns to next seasons crop - frosts, hail, etc etc, months to now wait and see how it will pan out.
The worry warts will worry, traders will trade, profits will be locked in, and the price IMO will fade into a flag formation after this rerate.

non holder, but a perspective to take into account, especially for those late to the party

over and out

Yeah right.!!!!!

[Xerof]

Yeah right.!!!!!lol, I see your point., but I'm a gentleman, not an agenda driven troll. :D 'Twas an honest appraisal of how I saw the price action at that time. Proved bang on as it turned out. Fast moving macro at the moment, had a good retrace, could retrace further too, but I thought 190 was a satisfactory entry point on Friday, as I don't know the timing of certain announcements. It will likely only be short term, then back into HNZ percy

[percy]

lol, I see your point., but I'm a gentleman, not an agenda driven troll. :D 'Twas an honest appraisal of how I saw the price action at that time. Proved bang on as it turned out. Fast moving macro at the moment, had a good retrace, could retrace further too, but I thought 190 was a satisfactory entry point on Friday, as I don't know the timing of certain announcements. It will likely only be short term, then back into HNZ percy

You just stick with what you are doing.
You are going just fine.
Expect further good news from SCL later in the month and further upgrades.
Then it may be time for HNZ revisited?!! lol.

[clip]

Apologies in advance for the long post, got woken up for work and couldn't get back to sleep..
Anyone have any ideas on how an el nino season would affect scales production?

From what I've been reading, generally an el nino season increases the $USD value of agriculture goods excluding corn and wheat. At this stage it seems very likely we will be hit by el nino this year, at least until october and the chance of it persisting into summer 2015/2016 standing around 90%.

Effects of el nino on New Zealand - can make things tougher for NZ by bringing heavier than usual rainfall to parts that generally receive fair/ample rainfall (west coast), and by bringing drought to those parts that are normally dryer (east coast). Most reports seem to cite concerns to livestock farmers, relating to issues around scarcity of feed and/or damaging pastures used for grazing. I have been having trouble finding out how it would affect fruit growers

Some news/tidbits from a bit of googling:

31/07: scales have almost completed packing of 2015 harvest
By end of august around 70% of scales crop will have been sold to the international market, and around 45% of stock sold to asian/middle eastern markets. This article also mentions scales have invested in technology and frost protection in recent years (https://agrihq.co.nz/article/scales-confident-of-a-good-year?p=1) which seems to be a good sign.
This article seems to mention mostly african countries primarily effected by el nina (http://www.chinadaily.com.cn/kindle/2015-07/26/content_21412060.htm

31/08 NIWA report https://www.niwa.co.nz/climate/sco/seasonal-climate-outlook-august-october-2015
Likely effects on hawkes bay:


Temperatures are about equally likely (35-40% chance) to be average or below average.
Rainfall totals are about equally likely (40-45% chance) to be in the below normal or near normal range.
Soil moisture levels and river flows are equally likely (40% chance) to be in the near normal or below normal range.

03/08 approx: update on weather conditions to come: https://agrihq.co.nz/article/august-outlook-cold-and-risk-of-rain-extremes?p=1

06/08 affects on south/central america: central facing very dry conditions, especially on pacific coast from eastern el-salvadore to panama. Southern caribbean & atlantic coast of guatemala, excessive rainfall.
-----------

As I understand, scales orchards' are in the hawkes bay, the effects of which el nino may have on the area, seem to be not so major - see the NIWA estimates above.

In terms of el nino's effects on other countries, I have been having a look into the top apple producing countries - https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_apple_production

Argentina, Brazil and Chile are listed in the top 13, comparitively NZ is listed 27th. A bit more digging, it seems in general el nino is not good for fruit/crop production or harvests in those countries. Which means if we have another good season, could be good for Scales. I don't know much about the life cycle of apples planting/flowering/picking etc, but dug up the copy/pasted material below.. just an extra bit of reading about the climate apples like to be grown in.

Before I finish on that, I refer to 1 last article from 27th of feb this year (http://www.stuff.co.nz/business/farming/cropping/66722912/rosy-results-in-apples-trade) where scales said the drought had not affected their business/production, in fact Mr Borland said Borland said "the drought had not affected the firm's apple crop. The Hawke's Bay orchards had good irrigation and the drier conditions gave good colour to the export apples."

--------

This about wraps up my post, the below is just whatever I could find on good growing conditions for apples by googling, which seems like an el nino on the east coast wouldn't be too bad for - higher rainfall and colder temps through to sept/oct, then warmer than average into summer.

ClimatePipfruit are deciduous tree crops that require a period of winter chill. During their dormant period, apple and pear trees are reasonably resistant to New Zealand’s cold temperatures, frost and snow, especially as winter temperatures are not extreme by world standards.
Climate damageFrostsOnce spring arrives and buds begin to open, the young leaves and flowers are sensitive to spring frosts. In the past, this caused major crop losses. Today, growers use water sprinkling (in Central Otago) or wind machines (Hawke’s Bay) to reduce the chance of frost damage. (See earlier in post - scales invested in frost protection in recent years which should counteract this)
HailHail can also cause major production losses. Hail storms are generally quite localised, but within a few minutes can turn potentially high-earning crops into fruit only fit for processing into juice. Many growers have hail insurance against possible losses. The only means of protecting against hail are choosing an appropriate location, and placing hail netting over the trees. A few growers use hail cannons, which send shock-wave blasts into the air in an attempt to stop hail forming.
DroughtDrought can seriously reduce crops and fruit size, but most orchards in New Zealand are irrigated. (My thoughts - Mr Borland has confirmed the hawkes bay orchards had good irrigation so not such a major unless there's serious drouts)
SoilsApples and pears grow best on well-drained soils with good moisture retention. Orchards need high soil fertility, as each crop takes up a lot of nutrients.
Nutrient lossesApple yields in New Zealand vary from 50 to 100 tonnes per hectare. A crop of 70 tonnes removes around 82 kilograms of potassium, 31 kilograms of nitrogen, 7 kilograms of phosphorus, and 4 kilograms each of calcium and magnesium from each hectare of soil. These nutrients have to be supplied either from soil minerals or by adding fertiliser. (Sounds ok for scales)
Some of the fertile soils in Hawke’s Bay have enough nitrogen, so nitrogen fertilisers are not used. Nelson soils – especially on the Moutere gravels – are generally poorer, and each hectare needs 50 kilograms of nitrogen, 13 kilograms of phosphorus and 70 kilograms of potassium added annually.
------------------

One thing I didn't have much luck finding was that, When do the apples in hawkes bay start flowering/producing, and are they ready for harvest the following year? Or would Scales next harvest after the one just been, be in 2018? And what are people's thoughts on the upcoming el nino season? (seems to be a given from all the meteorological reports worldwide I did a bit of reading on), how may that affect scales?

Thanks, and apologies if already posted, just skimmed the thread..

[Xerof]

Clip, great post.

From my time spent in HB and having an orchardist as a social contact, hail is the least controllable threat these days. But it is usually quite localised - not everyone cops it. Hail cannons are next to useless in a serious belt of hail, think potato gun from school days. Insurance is expensive, and I'm not sure too many take it out. I don't know for sure, but would imagine SCL orchards are spread right across the fruit bowl.

blossom period is about October, risking a few frosts, but much better frost protection techniques used nowdays, with picking commencing as early as January.

At the end of the day, horticulture is weather dependent, so does carry seasonal risks each and every year.

[noodles]

Clip, great post.

From my time spent in HB and having an orchardist as a social contact, hail is the least controllable threat these days. But it is usually quite localised - not everyone cops it. Hail cannons are next to useless in a serious belt of hail, think potato gun from school days. Insurance is expensive, and I'm not sure too many take it out. I don't know for sure, but would imagine SCL orchards are spread right across the fruit bowl.

blossom period is about October, risking a few frosts, but much better frost protection techniques used nowdays, with picking commencing as early as January.

At the end of the day, horticulture is weather dependent, so does carry seasonal risks each and every year.

Scales Orchards are spread across the Hawkes Bay. Thus reducing the hail risk.

[pierre]

Scales Orchards are spread across the Hawkes Bay. Thus reducing the hail risk.

Hi Denis. Totally off topic and nothing personal, but one thing that grates us Hawke's Bay types is our province being referred to as "The" Hawke's Bay. Nobody uses "The" Wellington, "The" Auckland, "The" Canterbury, "The" Otago, "The" Southland etc. I know some say "the" Manawatu - but that's different! Just saying.

[macduffy]

Hi Denis. Totally off topic and nothing personal, but one thing that grates us Hawke's Bay types is our province being referred to as "The" Hawke's Bay. Nobody uses "The" Wellington, "The" Auckland, "The" Canterbury, "The" Otago, "The" Southland etc. I know some say "the" Manawatu - but that's different! Just saying.

Yes, odd, isn't it. As with the West Coast, the Coromandel, the Maniototo. No reason, I guess.

:confused:

[Cricketfan]

Yes, odd, isn't it. As with the West Coast, the Coromandel, the Maniototo. No reason, I guess.

:confused:

West Coast makes sense, because it sounds weird otherwise. Just like North Island and South Island. That's what happens when you have such unoriginal names :)

[winner69]

This freezing cold southerly blast from Antarctica meant he spinnaker had to come down

More favourable warmer winds forecast ......spinnaker will go up and the share price will quickly go back to 2 bucks and restart its inevitable strong rise to 260

[Beagle]

The market seems inexorably stuck attributing a PE of circa 10 to agri stocks and this is a prime example. I know we have to account for changing weather patters, disease and pestilence risks but I would have thought given the mix of SCL's business and their growth profile and specifically the dramatic decline in the $Kiwi and more generally in the context of 50 year lows in interest rates, (which is usually very good for some PE expansion) a somewhat higher PE is warranted. Its somewhat frustrating the market doesn't agree. As a relatively new listing I think the company just needs to get some more runs on the board and we'll see the PE move up to 12 or 13 when the market gains more of an understanding of the freight and coolstore / logistics side of their operation. Then we'll see our $2.50+ but this may require considerable patience.

[noodles]

The market seems inexorably stuck attributing a PE of circa 10 to agri stocks and this is a prime example. I know we have to account for changing weather patters, disease and pestilence risks but I would have thought given the mix of SCL's business and their growth profile and specifically the dramatic decline in the $Kiwi and more specifically in the context of 50 year lows in interest rates, (which is usually very good for some PE expansion) a higher PE is warranted. Its somewhat frustrating the market doesn't agree.
SEK is trading on a historical pe=15. I don't think the market has a clue what Fy15 will bring.
TGG is tradng on a historical pe=13.
SCL is trading on a historical pe=14.5
PGW is trading on a historical pe=10.5

[Xerof]

Unfortunately it's in distribution mode the past few days, after that parabolic spinnaker was hoisted up the mast. Most trades are off-market, so fundies/instos repositioning. New buyers taking it off old holders. Waiting game.....

I'm looking for another burst this week, but the panic macro is turning fast, with bloody Andy Chicken Little's and fearmongering media comments not helping with momentum.

[Beagle]

SEK is trading on a historical pe=15. I don't think the market has a clue what Fy15 will bring.
TGG is tradng on a historical pe=13.
SCL is trading on a historical pe=14.5
PGW is trading on a historical pe=10.5

Yeah, I should have clarified that I was talking about projected FY16 EPS. They're all in a fairly tight spread on a projected basis. I think if any deserve a higher PE its SCL reflecting the fact that there's a significant component of their business that's logistics and freight. PE of Mainfrieght is nowhere near 10 is it !!

[winner69]

Only light winds today ......better conditions for the rest of the week ....as the spinnaker fills th share price rises.

[Xerof]

Look out Winner, breeze just got up:D

[Beagle]

Look out Winner, breeze just got up:D

Yeah he might have to hoist a smaller spinnaker otherwise he'll break the mast :D

[silverblizzard888]

Profit Upgrade

https://www.nzx.com/files/attachments/218387.pdf

The gift just keeps giving

[Joshuatree]

"Forecast EBIDTDA for 2015 is now expected to exceed the prospectus forecast of $41.2 mill by between 25 and 35%." great stuff!

[Beagle]

"Forecast EBIDTDA for 2015 is now expected to exceed the prospectus forecast of $41.2 mill by between 25 and 35%." great stuff!

Sure is and you have the huge currency tailwind still to come when their fx cover expires :t_up:

[sb9]

Sweet :t_up: $2.50 here comes soon, sooner than Christmas I reckon, eh winner?

[vin]

Go you beauty!!!:t_up:

[winner69]

Have heaps of RBD cash going into this yacht with a spinnaker filling up nicely

Hoping there are a many punters wanting to take profits and sell out .... great price to sell at I reckon .... take those gains before the market taketh away should be you motto,

[percy]

All the eps estimates are in the public domain.
http://www.4-traders.com/SCALES-CORP-LTD-21021561/revisions/

Noodles thank for the link and sharing your research with us.
You have been "on the money" completely with this stock.
Great research results in great returns,so again thanks for sharing with us.
I was at Traders Network NZ meeting last night,where Johnnie Cochrane, from Murray and co was speaking.[Mainly on affects of dairying]
He did happen to say he thought Scales was a good investment, with a good product, and being an exporter.

[gv1]

Na..unless u want to regret it later. Great co's investment should not be played with. Actually, I will be buying more!

[Beagle]

Noodles thank for the link and sharing your research with us.
You have been "on the money" completely with this stock.
Great research results in great returns,so again thanks for sharing with us.
I was at Traders Network NZ meeting last night,where Johnnie Cochrane, from Murray and co was speaking.[Mainly on affects of dairying]
He did happen to say he thought Scales was a good investment, with a good product, and being an exporter.

+1, Thanks Noodles.

[Joshuatree]

Thanks Tim for starting the thread and bunter and esp noodles for sharing your excellent research and analyses ,not a ramp in sight.:t_up:.Having said that apples have been a cyclic industry in the past and is there reasons why not again at some point ala milk? And weather/ pest issues need to be in ones margin of safety too.

[gv1]

Thanks Tim for starting the thread and bunter and esp noodles for sharing your excellent research and analyses ,not a ramp in sight.:t_up:.Having said that apples have been a cyclic industry in the past and is there reasons why not again at some point ala milk? And weather/ pest issues need to be in ones margin of safety too.
Enjoy it mate now...why make curd of the milk!

[Joshuatree]

Ive enjoyed it already gv see "great stuff" above. Think its sensible to also keep our feet on the ground, a weather eye out and keep another eye on the macro, the Global picture. No sorehead or sourpuss here:)

[winner69]

They are now saying 51m to 55m

Whilst they are correct to say 25 to 35% above IPO forecast of 41.2m, it is somewhat mischievous and the highly intelligent folks on this site will have already seen through the rhetoric, as it's more like 6% to 9% above what is more than likely already priced in (4Traders $48m EBITDA)

but I'm not selling just yet......:sleep:

Just good self promotion on their part

[gv1]

Ive enjoyed it already gv see "great stuff" above. Think its sensible to also keep our feet on the ground, a weather eye out and keep another eye on the macro, the Global picture. No sorehead or sourpuss here:)
As you wish mate...even money in the bank is no guarantee to be yours in times of anarchy!

[Beagle]

They are now saying 51m to 55m

Whilst they are correct to say 25 to 35% above IPO forecast of 41.2m, it is somewhat mischievous and the highly intelligent folks on this site will have already seen through the rhetoric, as it's more like 6% to 9% above what is more than likely already priced in (4Traders $48m EBITDA)

but I'm not selling just yet......:sleep:

To be fair that's just them formally complying with their continuous disclosure requirements. They didn't put that $48m out there, that's brokers consensus...so there's absolutely no mischievousness on their part.

[Xerof]

To be fair that's just them formally complying with their continuous disclosure requirements. They didn't put that $48m out there, that's brokers consensus...so there's absolutely no mischievousness on their part.

Yeah, true enough. I hadn't checked back to see if they had updated, being a newbie to this stock. I'll reword my original post:

They are now saying 51m to 55m

Whilst they are correct to say 25 to 35% above IPO forecast of 41.2m, it's more like 6% to 9% above what was more than likely already priced in to the share price, based off brokers consensus forecasts (4Traders $48m EBITDA)

but I'm not selling just yet......:sleep:

[winner69]

Yeah, true enough. I hadn't checked back to see if they had updated, being a newbie to this stock. I'll reword my original post:

They are now saying 51m to 55m

Whilst they are correct to say 25 to 35% above IPO forecast of 41.2m, it's more like 6% to 9% above what was more than likely already priced in to the share price, based off brokers consensus forecasts (4Traders $48m EBITDA)

but I'm not selling just yet......:sleep:

Early June - We are pleased with the way the year has started and remain confident of meeting our 2015 IPO earnings forecast.

Late July - a teaser in that things are going well

Today - Forecast EBITDA for 2015 is now expected to exceed the prospectus forecast of $41.2m by between 25 and 35 percent

Next announcement - how about 50% to 70%?


Things changing fast.

Noodles - I take it that 35% increase in ebitda gives a much greater % at NPAT (eps) level?

[axe]

Have heaps of RBD cash going into this yacht with a spinnaker filling up nicely

Hoping there are a many punters wanting to take profits and sell out .... great price to sell at I reckon .... take those gains before the market taketh away should be you motto,

Good call from this morning winner. Lots of profit taking after the rush from this morning. Seems short sighted given the upward trajectory and stream of upgrades from SCL?

[winner69]

Bit of a bummer day after all that excitement this morning - taken the wind out of the sails it has

Maybe it was a few who were not "highly intelligent folks" (xerof phrase) who didn't see through the rhetoric and pumped the price up this morning.

Hope they all cut their losses tomorrow - time to buy some more.

[Xerof]

Sheesh Winner, doing my best to contain the exhuberance for you - worked a treat but I didn't sell either:D

Note to self: It's a tough market at the moment - gotta take profits when they avail themselves (short termers only)

[Joshuatree]

"Crisp profit upgrade" from Craigs out.Their research dept is pretty responsive these days.
12 month target $2.50 up only 2%
Forecast less profit in 2016 and same in 2017

[Beagle]

Currency tailwind not registering on their radar ?

[Joshuatree]

Yep "One off nature of nature of the bumper apple harvest this year"

and

"key delta like ly to be from stronger leverage from lower freight rates and a weaker $NZ".

[noodles]

Noodles thank for the link and sharing your research with us.
You have been "on the money" completely with this stock.
Great research results in great returns,so again thanks for sharing with us.
I was at Traders Network NZ meeting last night,where Johnnie Cochrane, from Murray and co was speaking.[Mainly on affects of dairying]
He did happen to say he thought Scales was a good investment, with a good product, and being an exporter.


+1, Thanks Noodles.


Thanks Tim for starting the thread and bunter and esp noodles for sharing your excellent research and analyses ,not a ramp in sight.:t_up:.Having said that apples have been a cyclic industry in the past and is there reasons why not again at some point ala milk? And weather/ pest issues need to be in ones margin of safety too.

Thanks.

I've also posted a lot of bad research over the years.

All credit should go to Scales management. Great result!

[noodles]

Noodles - I take it that 35% increase in ebitda gives a much greater % at NPAT (eps) level?
rhetorical right?

[winner69]

"Crisp profit upgrade" from Craigs out.Their research dept is pretty responsive these days.
12 month target $2.50 up only 2%
Forecast less profit in 2016 and same in 2017

Only $2.50

They better go back and do their sums again I reckon.

Majority of their targets are 15% out (on the high side) so $2.50 is a pretty miserable target. It will be revised.

I'll drop Mark a note to get his team to pull their socks up.

[winner69]

rhetorical right?

What I was asking was whether ebitda being 35% over IPO forecast ends up with NPAT being 45% over forecast. That's my quick sums anyway

NPAT of 31m that is

[noodles]

What I was asking was whether ebitda being 35% over IPO forecast ends up with NPAT being 45% over forecast. That's my quick sums anyway

NPAT of 31m that is
I think that is about right for the midpoint.

[noodles]

I think that is about right for the midpoint.
That should support a dividend of around 16c or 10.7% gross yield.

[macduffy]

Fonterra's decision to reduce the volume of milk going to auction for the next 12 months should see further increased demand for SCL's coolstore space, either directly from Fonterra or indirectly from otherwise displaced products.

[Beagle]

That should support a dividend of around 16c or 10.7% gross yield.

That's highly attractive in my opinion especially given the future earnings growth to come from the currency tailwind, new cool store revenue and circa 40% acreage increase coming on stream in 2018.

[winner69]

Well that announcement last week has doe nothing to the share price.

This is getting boring .....probably still be 2 bucks odd at Christmas (hope not lower)

El Niño coming I am told ....that might help the share price

[couta1]

Well that announcement last week has doe nothing to the share price.

This is getting boring .....probably still be 2 bucks odd at Christmas (hope not lower)

El Niño coming I am told ....that might help the share price Gee come on winner where's that ramping spirit gone?

[winner69]

Gee come on winner where's that ramping spirit gone?

Wondering if I have been conned here

if it not going to go up anymore I sell

[Beagle]

Come on Winner. PE is under 10 with the currency tailwind effect on earnings still to come. Some patience is a prerequisite to successful investment mate.

[drcjp]

Come on Winner. PE is under 10 with the currency tailwind effect on earnings still to come. Some patience is a prerequisite to successful investment mate.

Indeed, they haven't even announced 1/2 yr figures yet. Market does seem to be jumpy at the moment - lots of uncertainty out there. Just gotta hang tough.

[gv1]

Only the patient makes $6,000 into $64 billion. Not the faint hearted.

[winner69]

Only the patient makes $6,000 into $64 billion. Not the faint hearted.

Thanks for the advice

So my heaps more than $6,000 will make me a zillionaire if I am patience.

[gv1]

Thanks for the advice

So my heaps more than $6,000 will make me a zillionaire if I am patience.


Ha!Ha! something for encouragement...

From $6,000 to $67 billion: Warren Buffett’s wealth through the agesSo, what were you doing as a young teenager?
His story is well told. Warren Buffett became a player in the investment game at the wee age of 11, eventually using cash he earned from his paper route to buy some farmland in his home state. As a high school sophomore, he also reaped the rewards of a booming pinball machine business.
By the time Buffett was 15, he already had a net worth of about $6,000.



According to the latest Forbes count (http://www.forbes.com/profile/warren-buffett/), the so-called Oracle of Omaha is now tipping the wealth scales at $67 billion. That’s good enough to put him at number three on the richest list, behind Bill Gates and Carlos Slim. Read: These are Warren Buffett’s 10 biggest deals (http://www.marketwatch.com/story/these-are-warren-buffetts-10-biggest-deals-2015-08-10).
The Dadaviz blog (http://dadaviz.com/) put together the chart below with help from Dividend.com (http://www.dividend.com/dividend-education/the-complete-history-of-warren-buffett/) to show Buffett’s journey from prodigious teen to the octogenarian behind Berkshire Hathaway BRK.A, -0.32% (http://www.marketwatch.com/investing/stock/brk.a?mod=MW_story_quote)
Some notable Buffett milestones include his net worth topping the $1-million mark at around 30 years old and then taking out the $1-billion hurdle at 56 years old. The stretch from 59 years old to now hasn’t exactly been unkind, either. And he doesn’t appear to be slowing down much. Read: Berkshire Hathaway to buy Precision Castparts for $32 billion, its biggest takeover ever (http://www.marketwatch.com/story/berkshire-hathaway-to-buy-precision-castparts-for-32-billion-2015-08-10).
Check it out and be inspired! Or overcome with feelings of inadequacy...

[Cricketfan]

I sense this is going to be another HNZ. Everything looking rosy now, things may get a bit ahead of themselves and the share price will drop a bit. Then there'll probably be a fruit fly discovered in Hawkes Bay that will cause mass panic here, even though only 6% of orchards are affected.

[percy]

I sense this is going to be another HNZ. Everything looking rosy now, things may get a bit ahead of themselves and the share price will drop a bit. Then there'll probably be a fruit fly discovered in Hawkes Bay that will cause mass panic here, even though only 6% of orchards are affected.

Yet all the time SCL are improving the business.
The new coolstore at Auckland is a case in point.
More premium apples coming through each year.
I think we will see them getting both organic growth,and growth by acquisitions.
Horticulture does carry risks.There will always be good seasons and poor seasons.
I did note they stated at the agm ,the drought in Hawks Bay did not affect them as they had installed irrigation, and they had had a great season.

[Cricketfan]

Yet all the time SCL are improving the business.
The new coolstore at Auckland is a case in point.
More premium apples coming through each year.
I think we will see them getting both organic growth,and growth by acquisitions.
Horticulture does carry risks.There will always be good seasons and poor seasons.

Exactly, but my point was that people on here (and maybe the market in general?) seem to react to the slightest negative thing despite all the positives, hence my comparison to HNZ. But it was tongue in cheek, I'm sure people will be more rational with SCL.

[couta1]

Not a quick question but in a choice between investing as a long term hold between SCL and GNE which would you choose and why? genuine thoughts appreciated.

[percy]

Exactly, but my point was that people on here (and maybe the market in general?) seem to react to the slightest negative thing despite all the positives, hence my comparison to HNZ. But it was tongue in cheek, I'm sure people will be more rational with SCL.

I hope so,but I doubt it.!!

[percy]

Not a quick question but in a choice between investing as a long term hold between SCL and GNE which would you choose and why? genuine thoughts appreciated.

You talked somewhere about retirees enjoying their dividends.
So if you were 90 and living in care, you would most probably buy GNE, whose yield is 8.3% against SCL's 5.03%.
There is little or no prospects of eps growth with GNE.
There is every likelihood of SCL's achieving good eps growth for the foreseeable future.
So if you are looking 5 to 10 years ahead, SCL's eps growth will give them the capacity to increase dividends,which will drive the share price.Best of both worlds.
A small point to remember is GNE, with the Government as major shareholder is unlikely to see corporate activity,while SCL could.

[stoploss]

Not a quick question but in a choice between investing as a long term hold between SCL and GNE which would you choose and why? genuine thoughts appreciated.

Long term personally I think less risk in GNE , sure new technology is becoming available but probably take quite a while for it to make an impact . Also as demand is going down , notice how they are mothballing generating plants ..... not like Fonterra just processing more and more milk into low markup product .......
Scales could well be a better performer $$$ wise , however you are carrying more risk for this , think Weather, Disease , competition from other markets ........ Bottom line is when people get cold/ need light they turn on a switch . Plenty of substitutes for Apples , including imports :)
DISC : Hold both .

[Beagle]

Not a quick question but in a choice between investing as a long term hold between SCL and GNE which would you choose and why? genuine thoughts appreciated.

Hi Couta,

I have a larger holding in SCL for the growth to come in future years. Its perhaps worth noting that GNE have limited growth prospects but are trading on a PE of over 20 and yet SCL, (notwithstanding superior growth prospects and the tailwinds from a lower $Kiwi is trading on a PE of about 10). As a choice I'd run with SCL long term but each have their merits and I hold a modest stake in GNE for the dividend yield.

[couta1]

Thanks guys, appreciate feedback:cool:

[GTM 3442]

Not a quick question but in a choice between investing as a long term hold between SCL and GNE which would you choose and why? genuine thoughts appreciated.

I hold both.

I am not looking to increase my GNE holding, as they are a simple utility/dividend investment with little obvious potential for share price rises. Ongoing dividends are the driver.

I intend to increase my holding in Scales, looking for a combination of share price rises in the long term, coupled with dividends. Share price rises are the driver.

Scales have more potential for drastic price falls, as the market reacts to the inevitable drought and disease events, thus more potential for bottom-feeding.

[winner69]

Close today at 206 - a new RECORD CLOSE

Yippee .... we are up up and away again

[Balance]

Wondering if I have been conned here

if it not going to go up anymore I sell

Need you more often to express your angst, W69!

The market heard you and the sp responded!

[Beagle]

Close today at 206 - a new RECORD CLOSE

Yippee .... we are up up and away again

Get the number one spinnaker out mate to enjoy the nice steady following breeze :)

[winner69]

Get the number one spinnaker out mate to enjoy the nice steady following breeze :)

I've noticed that every time a cold southerly blows over the country the share price struggles

Now warmer days are coming and spring around he corner we be alright

And Il Niño coming as well ....that will help the spinnaker fill

[winner69]

Spinnaker filling up nicely

At this rate a we intraday high today or tomorrow ......and then, well blue skies again.

[sb9]

Another record close for the day eh winner69? All in time for HY announcement next week.

Wheres is noodles, haven't seen much posts from him in the past few days.

[percy]

Another record close for the day eh winner69? All in time for HY announcement next week.

Wheres is noodles, haven't seen much posts from him in the past few days.

I think he is busy counting his HUGE profits...
Been on the money too often of late.!!!!! ....lol.

[winner69]

Another record close for the day eh winner69? All in time for HY announcement next week.

Wheres is noodles, haven't seen much posts from him in the past few days.

Keeping an eagle eye on the S&P500 and getting ready to do some more hedging

I'd just keeping buying Scales

Even if the US markets crash and the NZX follows a few stocks stay positive and Scales will be one

[noodles]

I think he is busy counting his HUGE profits...
Been on the money too often of late.!!!!! ....lol.
Not today. I was counting my losses on the ASX.

Keeping an eagle eye on the S&P500 and getting ready to do some more hedging

30% hedged

[winner69]

Not today. I was counting my losses on the ASX.

30% hedged

What do actually mean by being 30% hedged?

Really interested

[noodles]

What do actually mean by being 30% hedged?

Really interested
See this post
http://www.sharetrader.co.nz/showthread.php?7257-Daily-S-amp-P-500-INDEX-TRACKER&p=587508&viewfull=1#post587508

[IAK]

Interim results https://www.nzx.com/companies/SCL/announcements/269131

8:30am, 27 Aug 2015 | HALFYR
SCALES CORPORATION LIFTS HALF YEAR AFTER TAX PROFIT 59 PER CENT


Scales Corporation Limited (NZX:SCL) today reported a net profit after tax of $33.2 million from continuing operations for the half year ended 30 June 2015 (1H15), up 59 per cent on the previous half year ended 30 June 2014 (1H14).


Key highlights include:


• NPAT up 59 per cent and EBITDA up 47 per cent compared to 1H14.
• Apple export volumes up 14.6 per cent compared to FY14, and up 16.1 per cent compared to FY15 forecast.
• Storage & Logistics division increases EBITDA by $2.7 million from 1H14.
• All divisions currently trading ahead of 1H14

[Joshuatree]

Thanks Iak . Chances are that this result has come out on an up day.

"We reiterate guidance that our full year result is likely to produce an EBITDA that is 25 to 35 % above our FY15 prospectus forecast of $41.2 million" Conservative , but one needs to be in this industry.

[percy]

I eagerly await Noodles' updated projections...

[Beagle]

EPS for FY 15 at the mid point of the forecast is 21 cps.

Disappointing that two thirds of FY16 FX is covered by forward cover...no info given on rates in the analyst projections I could see.

Zero growth in apple volume forecast for FY16.

Increases in many other aspects of their business. My guess EPS for FY 16 24-25 cps. Fair PE for any agri stock. I will stick with my time proven 10 so I see a fair value price target in 12 months of $2.45....about where the brokers see it.
Good stock to hold for the long term IMO.

[noodles]

I eagerly await Noodles' updated projections...
lol. No projections from me. Company has given guidance. All on track.
During the conference call, Andy said that he did not expect to see a weak second half to the selling season as was evident last year (due to Russian sanctions).

[sb9]

In Andy's own words from the commentary this morning, "we're well positioned", love that aye percy..

[percy]

In Andy's own words from the commentary this morning, "we're well positioned", love that aye percy..

Sort of says it all.!!!!
Comforting.!! lol.

[winner69]

Hope we all understood Slide 5. I did

https://www.nzx.com/files/attachments/219452.pdf

[Sideshow Bob]

Expect nothing new but FYI

http://viewer.zmags.com/publication/917db938#/917db938/26

[Joshuatree]

Love the full page Heartland Ad for "Farm Transition Loan" designed(of course) to help you transition off your farm, Smart.:)

[Beagle]

EPS for FY 15 at the mid point of the forecast is 21 cps.

Disappointing that two thirds of FY16 FX is covered by forward cover...no info given on rates in the analyst projections I could see.

Zero growth in apple volume forecast for FY16.

Increases in many other aspects of their business. My guess EPS for FY 16 24-25 cps. Fair PE for any agri stock. I will stick with my time proven 10 so I see a fair value price target in 12 months of $2.45....about where the brokers see it.
Good stock to hold for the long term IMO.

Found out consensus broker forecast for FY16 is EPS of only 20 cps:(

Factor in the pesky PE of 10 that agri stocks struggle to shake off, no dividends for many months, a bear market and you start to understand why the shares are stuck around $1.95 - $2.00.
Even the company itself is forecasting a lower crop in FY16. All momentum has been lost for the present time. I think its a great stock and has great medium / long term prospects but in the short term in this bear market I struggle to see it getting any price traction.

I went down to Napier in early August. Word on the street was that it was a remarkable season and most had harvested ~ 20% more than normal. Plenty left over for juicing was the other comment I heard a couple of times. All the good news is already in the price IMO.

[Joshuatree]

I agree.It was a bumper crop too and the next few years will be similar ; prob a little less and thats with no weather events. Scales is on my list to reduce/sell out of whilst building some cash.

[axe]

Divvy hopefully not "many months" away Roger. :) Last years was in the account before Xmas.

Joshuatree - I too have considered reducing my SCL holding but haven't done so. Gut says that SP will stall until dividend announcement in November (should be an "sweet" increase) and a nice SP boost to go with it, followed by a "sweet" divvy as an Xmas bonus. I wouldn't want to be out of this when they make the divvy announcement.

[Wolf]

Anyone know why Noodles got banned?
Have missed his posts

[Joshuatree]

Apparently because he was multi nicking; had another nom de plume maybe ,"Denis". Im sure it wasn't intended to deceive ,but rules are rules.
Yes agree Wolf; noodles is a valued participant here.

[Beagle]

Anyone know why Noodles got banned?
Have missed his posts

Yes I do too. He's been a valuable and respected contributor on this forum. What Joshuatree said + a little birdie tells me its not a permanent ban, he might be back in October if he's still interested in this site. I hope he chooses to come back. Winner69 is on a different sort of holiday for a month, (one he chose, overseas), so its pretty quiet and I'm missing two of the brightest guys on here...good mates too.

[sb9]

In the same breath, also miss Snapiti. Hoping he would be back sometime.

[Beagle]

Snapps gone :(

[sb9]

Ouch...that's a shame :(

[sb9]

Good on a ya Roger. Winner69 has been bit quiet of late, wonder why?

[sb9]

MD Mr Borland putting money where his mouth is, buys 375k on-market (@ $1.99/share), great stuff!!!

[vin]

Good to see! Hope SCL stays above the $2 mark.

[macduffy]

I've just been reading the interim report. As noted, NPAT from continuing operations was a record $33.2m. However, there's a potentially nasty little item of ($13.515m) appearing in the accounts under "items that may be reclassified subsequently to profit or loss- continuing operations" representing net loss after tax on cash flow hedges. Now I realise that the amount finally written off - or gained - in this respect will only become known in the future but it's a substantial number, currently, and I wonder what the underlying transactions and the rates at which they were written, are. As it is, it's unclear whether higher/lower interest rates/exchange rates would be detrimental or beneficial.

Comments?

[Jantar]

.... However, there's a potentially nasty little item of ($13.515m) appearing in the accounts under "items that may be reclassified subsequently to profit or loss- continuing operations" representing net loss after tax on cash flow hedges....
I would not be too worried by that. The whole purpose of a hedge is to give certainty to cash flow. Depending on the rate at which it was written for it may end up being smaller, or even negative. However for that to happen the income on foreign sales will increase by a similar amount, so the nett result would be for little change in the bottom line.

[macduffy]

I would not be too worried by that. The whole purpose of a hedge is to give certainty to cash flow. Depending on the rate at which it was written for it may end up being smaller, or even negative. However for that to happen the income on foreign sales will increase by a similar amount, so the nett result would be for little change in the bottom line.

Yes, it's the "depending on the rate" bit that has me thinking!

[Snow Leopard]

I've just been reading the interim report. As noted, NPAT from continuing operations was a record $33.2m. However, there's a potentially nasty little item of ($13.515m) appearing in the accounts under "items that may be reclassified subsequently to profit or loss- continuing operations" representing net loss after tax on cash flow hedges. Now I realise that the amount finally written off - or gained - in this respect will only become known in the future but it's a substantial number, currently, and I wonder what the underlying transactions and the rates at which they were written, are. As it is, it's unclear whether higher/lower interest rates/exchange rates would be detrimental or beneficial.

Comments?

Have a look at the presentation that went with that report (http://scalescorporation.co.nz/wp-content/uploads/Interim-Result-Presentation-2015.pdf) particularly page 7

Best Wishes
Paper Tiger

[IAK]

Look like the TPP will be good news for Apple exporters..... http://nzh.tw/11524395

[sb9]

Look like the TPP will be good news for Apple exporters..... http://nzh.tw/11524395

Yeah, looks good for most of exporters as per the statement below:

"Tariffs on all other New Zealand exports to TPP countries - including fruit and vegetables, sheep meat, forestry products, seafood, wine and industrial products - would be eliminated", Tim Groser said.

[bull....]

Yeah, looks good for most of exporters as per the statement below:

"Tariffs on all other New Zealand exports to TPP countries - including fruit and vegetables, sheep meat, forestry products, seafood, wine and industrial products - would be eliminated", Tim Groser said.

looks like tpp will create attractive takeover targets in nz for overseas based investors keen to gain access to those markets - bet all these primary industries wont last long in nz ownership.
also I see overseas office approval has been lifted on land to 200m from 100m so foreigners will now be able to buy larger land blocks

[winner69]

Whats going on with Scales?

No wind in the spinnaker at all

Gone nowhere for 2.months

Getting close to being sold. Lost opportunities elsewhere

Guys, what might trigger the next surge up (soon)?

[sb9]

I would say nothing much will happen until they make divvy announcement, which is next month I think and paid in Jan.

[winner69]

I would say nothing much will happen until they make divvy announcement, which is next month I think and paid in Jan.

Won't the commentary then be more important than the size of the dividend. How positive do you think it might be?

I getting closer and closer to selling ....not going anywhere at the moment. From 170 to 207 pretty good for a few months and I think I got a dividend as well

Have to be careful how I sell though --- might create a buying opportunity for you guys ha ha

I

[Beagle]

Whats going on with Scales?

No wind in the spinnaker at all

Gone nowhere for 2.months

Getting close to being sold. Lost opportunities elsewhere

Guys, what might trigger the next surge up (soon)?

Consensus analyst forecast is 20 cps. The company is forecasting slightly less cartons than last year. Agri stock so I stick with my view held for many years, (that's served me very well) that a PE of 10 is best, fair value = $2.00. Disc - I sold out recently.

[sb9]

Won't the commentary then be more important than the size of the dividend. How positive do you think it might be?

Yeah, not sure what the further upside on this one to be honest. However, CEO recently bought big in the past few weeks (about 300k shares IIRC) which is always a positive sign.

The new cold storage facility in AKL (papakura) should add more earnings potential going forward. Guess all those details will be in the commentary at the time of divvy announcement.

Disc: Happy holder.

[winner69]

Great weather in Hawkes Bay has the apple trees happy. All in blossom and the bees happy as

Another high yield season on the way

Revise those forecasts

Scales at 3 bucks this time next year

http://www.radionz.co.nz/audio/player/201775295

[Beagle]

On Sunday news I see they're out setting the fruit fly traps again now that the winter, (dormant period for fruit fly's is over). Shareholders will be praying that this problem has been eradicated but its disappointing that it would appear from the news item that they can't announce this till around Christmas. Hoping this is all good for shareholders as the last thing N.Z. needs is this problem raising its ugly head again.

[axe]

Great weather in Hawkes Bay has the apple trees happy. All in blossom and the bees happy as

Another high yield season on the way

Revise those forecasts

Scales at 3 bucks this time next year

http://www.radionz.co.nz/audio/player/201775295

Did I hear "perfect" setup for "boomer" season? Increase in yield and quality. Tasty :)

[sb9]

There you go winner, looks like the wheels are moving, big off-market trades (more than 1mln shares).

[winner69]

Did I hear "perfect" setup for "boomer" season? Increase in yield and quality. Tasty :)

You sure did

[winner69]

There you go winner, looks like the wheels are moving, big off-market trades (more than 1mln shares).

And aren't the guru analysts saying that FY15 wouldn't be repeated

Bring it on

[sb9]

And aren't the guru analysts saying that FY15 wouldn't be repeated

Bring it on

We've taken off there winner...

[winner69]

We've taken off there winner...

Spinnaker full of wind today and yes she's 'taken off'

And so close to selling the other day - nobody wanted to buy at $2.06 so I kept them.

Hope they get to somewhere near noodles target of $2.40 or whatever it was

Those bees are still busy doing their thing in Hawkes Bay

[pierre]

Spinnaker full of wind today and yes she's 'taken off'

Those bees are still busy doing their thing in Hawkes Bay

Beautiful 28 degrees day in the 'Bay today Winner. While it's Anniversary Day holiday for us humans, the bees haven't found out about that so are still buzzing around busily doing what bees do. All augurs well for Scales again this year. Waiting for the divie announcement next month too.

[winner69]

Beautiful 28 degrees day in the 'Bay today Winner. While it's Anniversary Day holiday for us humans, the bees haven't found out about that so are still buzzing around busily doing what bees do. All augurs well for Scales again this year. Waiting for the divie announcement next month too.


You going to the rugby tonight

Go the Lions

[pierre]

You going to the rugby tonight

Go the Lions
Otherwise engaged tonight unfortunately. C'mon the Bay!

[pierre]

You going to the rugby tonight

Go the Lions

Great win to the Magpies - looks like you'll have to change that nickname mate. Don't want to rub it in but Loser25 comes to mind - lol.

Meanwhile back on topic. Nice gentle rain in the Bay today - great for the apples and another brilliant year for SCL.

[Anna Naum]

AFR running article quoting Bill English @ Citi Conference suggesting Apples are a real win for NZ under TPP as it allows us to sell them to Mexico. He is quoted as saying US apples taste like cr@p!

[GTM 3442]

AFR running article quoting Bill English @ Citi Conference suggesting Apples are a real win for NZ under TPP as it allows us to sell them to Mexico. He is quoted as saying US apples taste like cr@p!

I have found that US apples taste of nothing. But they are usually very well presented and often very shiny.

New Zealanders often don't realize just how good New Zealand "non-premium" food can be.

[Cricketfan]

I have found that US apples taste of nothing. But they are usually very well presented and often very shiny.

New Zealanders often don't realize just how good New Zealand "non-premium" food can be.

I remember there was a UK chef recently that was complaining that NZ apples are too sweet, and prefers UK apples because they are more tart. Go figure...

[Joshuatree]

Stuck in the apple Granny Smith reminiscing past; prob drives a morris minor retrofitted with an airbag.:)

[macduffy]

I remember there was a UK chef recently that was complaining that NZ apples are too sweet, and prefers UK apples because they are more tart. Go figure...

Modern NZ apples are great - but I do still hanker for an old-fashioned non-"enhanced" old Cox' Orange now and again.

(How on earth did I get involved in this discussion?)

:ohmy:

[Sgt Pepper]

Modern NZ apples are great - but I do still hanker for an old-fashioned non-"enhanced" old Cox' Orange now and again.

(How on earth did I get involved in this discussion?)

:ohmy:
Or varities that supermarkets don't sell, especially Golden Delicious YUM

[Joshuatree]

I do see a modern version of GD on the supermarkets from time to time but they are bright yellow and don't taste how i remember them as a kid( but how could they, with taste and memory intertwined and taste losing its subtlety as we age). We used to wait until the wasps started eating them, a sign they were at their best.

[GTM 3442]

Modern fruit has had half a century of being bred and "optimized" for colour, storage, looks, handling, and so on.

I suspect that taste and texture have been well down the R&D pecking order.

[GTM 3442]

Stuck in the apple Granny Smith reminiscing past; prob drives a morris minor retrofitted with an airbag.:)

And the optional windscreen wiper upgrade

[Snow Leopard]

Just bought a dozen Mr Apples apples from the local night market, although it is not night yet :confused:.

Best Wishes
Paper Tiger

[sb9]

Did they taste good PT.
Looking forward to the divvy announcement soon by the company.

[Snow Leopard]

Couple of apples went together with two oranges, two bananananas, some jack-fruit, all topped off with some yoghurt and a light sprinkling of muesli to make a simple but delicious fruit lunch.

Currently I have not been booked to make the dividend announcement.

Best Wishes
Paper Tiger

Disc: Love that trend line :cool:

[sb9]

Lol, fixed that sentence PT

[tim23]

Divvy announcement 24 November last year, should be a good one me thinks.

[sb9]

Divvy announcement 24 November last year, should be a good one me thinks.

I think so too and could be reason why the trend line inching up in last few days.

[Snow Leopard]

Given that we ended the day, yet again, at a more expensive price than every previously achieved, can we say that:


We are Scaling New Heights :D :D :D



Best Wishes
Pun Meister Paper Tiger

PS: for those of you who do not get it a full explanatory leaflet (with diagrams) is available on application.

[Joshuatree]

Value added Toffee mmmh stickee trappee cachee ,tigee:p

[vin]

Reaching new highs, great to see :t_up:

[sb9]

Fresh break-out into 220 now, must be blue sky from here aye winner?

[vin]

Chasing THL SP

[sb9]

Chasing THL SP

Gosh, that spooked me. It indeed is chasing THL sp, just realised.

[winner69]

Fresh break-out into 220 now, must be blue sky from here aye winner?

The spinnaker is full and the fresh winds are favourable

I see $2.50 on the horizon and no clouds in sight

Noodles be laughing all way to bank - hea good soul that noodles

[Lewylewylewy]

Well I've joined the club guys! I wanted in sooner, but the situation wasn't right...

(Without sensationalizing SCL - because that add's almost zero value to the forum, right?)

SCL I think is a good purchase for me because I'm fairly confident that they'll only go up... If I need the money in a few months for a house purchase, I'm confident I can get it back. If it transpires that I don't need the cash later, I'll almost certainly be holding my SCL shares long term.

Hmmm, sensationalism aside: Looking at the list of buyers vs sellers in the asbsecurities interface, there are currently 18 people looking to buy 141,400 shares (priced $2.05 - $2.10, mostly at the higher end of that range) and only 3 sellers selling 12,556 shares (priced $2.25 - $2.35). Basic supply and demand tells us that price is looking up. The value of the NZD and the fact that SCL trade abroad suggests positive results. I think things are looking good.

[Lewylewylewy]

The other good thing about SCL shares is that (looking at the trading) people don't tend to let them go easy - they're never willing to drop the price to get rid of them, they just list them and if people don't buy - tough!

[Snow Leopard]

Whether this proves to be smart money or dumb money (It was actually some Ringgit I found down the back of the sofa) remains to be seen.

But I look at it this way (assuming profit for FY14 & FY15 and 70% dividend payout, with full imputations or supplementary [for me :t_up:], as per the prospectus), being conservative :mellow: on valuations and with future growth of 6%:

31-Dec-14 value: $1.441
31-Dec-15 value: $1.556
31-Dec-16 value: $1.649

Dividends to be paid in FY15: 5c (final) + 4c (interim)
[6.1% net yield @ $1.48, 5.8% @ $1.56]
Dividends to be paid in FY16: 6.5c (final) + 5c (interim)
[7.8% net yield @ $1.48, 7.0% @ $1.65].

OK, the future is a little uncertain but I consider it probable that the market at some point will catch up with these dividend yields and raise the price above my valuations, and if it does not, well the the yields are good.

Best Wishes
Paper Tiger

FY refers to Scales Financial Year (and Malaysian Tax year) of 1-Jan to 31-Dec.
DYOR as usual.

It can be somewhat amusing to look back on your old posts - hopefully it does not decide to 'revert to Tiger'

Best Wishes
Paper Tiger

[Joshuatree]

Divvy hopefully not "many months" away Roger. :) Last years was in the account before Xmas.

Joshuatree - I too have considered reducing my SCL holding but haven't done so. Gut says that SP will stall until dividend announcement in November (should be an "sweet" increase) and a nice SP boost to go with it, followed by a "sweet" divvy as an Xmas bonus. I wouldn't want to be out of this when they make the divvy announcement.

I was thinking about it as the s/p was nearly through the 60DMA and it was looking a bit weak plus the above re crop being exceptional this year etc. But s/p continued back up so still happy holder atp. Always have a "weather event" in the back of my mind though.

[Lewylewylewy]

quote from Graeme wheeler today: "...the last thing we want to do is raise the value of the nzd..."

Must be good for exporting companies like SCL

[winner69]

Well I've joined the club guys! I wanted in sooner, but the situation wasn't right...

(Without sensationalizing SCL - because that add's almost zero value to the forum, right?)

SCL I think is a good purchase for me because I'm fairly confident that they'll only go up... If I need the money in a few months for a house purchase, I'm confident I can get it back. If it transpires that I don't need the cash later, I'll almost certainly be holding my SCL shares long term.

Hmmm, sensationalism aside: Looking at the list of buyers vs sellers in the asbsecurities interface, there are currently 18 people looking to buy 141,400 shares (priced $2.05 - $2.10, mostly at the higher end of that range) and only 3 sellers selling 12,556 shares (priced $2.25 - $2.35). Basic supply and demand tells us that price is looking up. The value of the NZD and the fact that SCL trade abroad suggests positive results. I think things are looking good.

Pretty sensational stuff eh lewy

[LAC]

When are the results of Scales out? Anyone have the date?

[Snow Leopard]

When are the results of Scales out? Anyone have the date?

End of February 2016.

Best Wishes
Paper Tiger

[Jantar]

But they are due to make an interim dividend announcement within the next week or two.

[percy]

I rang the company.
The next board meeting is on the 9th of December,so I expect we will get a trading update and news of an interim dividend then.

[LAC]

Awesome, looking forward to it:)

[tim23]

Last year the announcement was 24 November - thanks for getting update have to wait now!

[tim23]

Last year divvy announcement was 24 November - thanks for clarifying - have to wait now!

[axe]

While we all wait for the board.... here is some fruit related news

http://www.3news.co.nz/nznews/fruit-fly-eradicated-from-auckland-2015120414#axzz3tLTyjGtc

[percy]

While we all wait for the board.... here is some fruit related news

http://www.3news.co.nz/nznews/fruit-fly-eradicated-from-auckland-2015120414#axzz3tLTyjGtc

Fantastic news,thanks for the link.

[Joshuatree]

Yes cheers axe. I like this bit

"This includes a Border Clearance Levy from January 1 meaning travellers will pay directly for biosecurity and customs service as demand increases."

Hopefully more staff and detection equipment.

Making fines and imprisionment stiffer or instant deportation for repeat offenders and improving on plane border controls education.We know there will be more incursions unfortunately..

[tim23]

Divvy announcement must be due this week, last year 3c I'm guessing 4.5c.

[noodles]

Divvy announcement must be due this week, last year 3c I'm guessing 4.5c.
Hi Tim,

There are a couple of things to be considered when estimating the SCL dividend.
1. Dividend Policy is 65-75% of NPAT
2. Dividend policy is to pay 2 equal dividends per year. Note: This policy has changed since last year's 3c dividend

So here is my estimate :
.22*.7/2 = .077 ( analyst eps*midpoint of div payout ratio /2)

So 7.7c for an interim div
Another 7.7c in July

15.4c for the full year
Gross yield 9.63%
FY15 pe=10
FY15 EV/EBITDA=6.3

noodles

[RTM]

Thanks Percy. So today sometime. Hoping for a Xmas present !
Cheers, RTM.


I rang the company.
The next board meeting is on the 9th of December,so I expect we will get a trading update and news of an interim dividend then.

[winner69]

Thanks Percy. So today sometime. Hoping for a Xmas present !
Cheers, RTM.

Hope its a big surprise - even more than noodles suggested

Need to something to give the share price a boost along - I am getting impatient with it hanging around the 220 mark. About to get the heave ho is Scales

Last time I sad the share price took off - let history repeat itself.

[tim23]

Thanks - like your educated answer better than my estimate!

Hi Tim,

There are a couple of things to be considered when estimating the SCL dividend.
1. Dividend Policy is 65-75% of NPAT
2. Dividend policy is to pay 2 equal dividends per year. Note: This policy has changed since last year's 3c dividend

So here is my estimate :
.22*.7/2 = .077 ( analyst eps*midpoint of div payout ratio /2)

So 7.7c for an interim div
Another 7.7c in July

15.4c for the full year
Gross yield 9.63%
FY15 pe=10
FY15 EV/EBITDA=6.3

noodles

[percy]

I have just rang Andy Borland,and asked when we may expect an announcement covering update and dividend?
Very soon was his reply.

[winner69]

Must be going to be a boomer ......punters have already assumed 7 cents by the look of the current price.

Jeez, now 227, an all time high

That northerly gale today sure is filling the spinnaker

Maybe 240 plus by Xmas?

[Joshuatree]

As long as that gale doesn't blow this seasons crop off hey.:ohmy: At this moment in time I'm glad i didn't sell a whiles back.

[Jantar]

Plenty of buyers and sellers yesterday, I topped up at $2.22. Price started increasing late in the day and today there is a single seller at $2:30 and buyers not having much success at $2.27. Obviously something has leaked from yesterday's board meeting.

[winner69]

Il niño is good for apples, isn't it?

http://www.sharechat.co.nz/article/c22d2541/strong-el-nino-conditions-this-summer-could-cut-gdp-by-up-to-0-8-rbnz-says.html

[percy]

With irrigated orchards for their apples I think SCL are well positioned.

[macduffy]

I know they have other businesses but just how much juice/profit/shareprice is it possible to squeeze out of apples?

Disc: Holding, nervously.

[Joshuatree]

The old supply and demand scenario i guess but with new apple varieties etc to add value. They have said they are growing the other branches of the business to reduce crop risk and reliance. Eg the new coolstore just opened in Auck to store Fonterra products.I was (Roger too, he sold)thinking of selling because of the "maturity" profile and that the last best ever season would be a hard act to follow. Never an easy stock to relax with as all it takes is 1 weather event to stuff it up.
Yes think they are all irrigated and as long as they can draw supplies from the rivers i think El Nino will be great for them. Thy used to have to spray apples after every rain,(still do?) for various fungus ,imperfection rots etc.

[Jantar]

,,,,,,,
So 7.7c for an interim div
Another 7.7c in July

.......
Damn, Only 6.5 cps as an interim div.

https://www.nzx.com/companies/SCL/announcements/274952

Just as well there is a 4.0 cps special div to make up for it.

10.5 cps to be paid 20th January is pretty good for me.:t_up:

[LAC]

Great result!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

[percy]

A stunner.!!!
Well done SCL.

[h2so4]

Xmas morning

[Joshuatree]

Put the Lindauer Summer aside... Sparkling Cider tonight:t_up:

[pierre]

Another 28 degree day coming up in the 'Bay today - brilliant apple growing weather.

Great profit forecast and 10.5 cents dividend puts even more sunshine in the day. Great work SCL.

[winner69]

Do you all think there will be a lot of irrational exuberance over this announcement?

Like drive the price up to $2.50 next week?

Might be the time to take me profits and look elsewhere

[nextbigthing]

Do you all think there will be a lot of irrational exuberance over this announcement?

Like drive the price up to $2.50 next week?

Might be the time to take me profits and look elsewhere

The announcement to me seems to imply to me that it was a great but unsustainable result (it's not every year you have a record crop). Interesting to see what happens anyway.

[winner69]

Am I seeing things - next years profit to be less than this years

Must be a mistake

Hope market gets really excited over the next few days ...no really really excited.

Like EPS of 25 cents gives a share price if over $3 doesn't it?

[Balance]

The announcement to me seems to imply to me that it was a great but unsustainable result (it's not every year you have a record crop).

Interesting to see what happens anyway.

This company has perfected the art of under-promising and over-delivering.

Blink and you miss the next step up in price and performance.

[Jantar]

Am I seeing things - next years profit to be less than this years

Must be a mistake

Hope market gets really excited over the next few days ...no really really excited.

Like EPS of 25 cents gives a share price if over $3 doesn't it?
They are just being cautious. 2015 was a record crop, but also they received hail insurance payout in the current financial year for damage in the previous financial year. So far in 2015 there have been no damaging hail storms, so not expecting any insurance payout in 2016. Couple this with an average crop and the overall EBIDAT will be down slightly.

What they haven't mentioned is the new orchid area brought in over the past couple of years that may or may not crop this coming year. It is possible that there will be another record crop either in 2016 or 2017.

[winner69]

This is not the sort of business you will be happy to invest in W69.Best to sell,move on and save us all from your moral raves,should Scales not meet your "highly concentrated portfolio's 30% to 40% expectations".
1]All white male board.
2]No diversification.
3]Annual report ,and all communications written and spoken in English only.
4]CEO on over $150,000 pa pay.
5]Reliant on cheap imported labour to pick the crop.
6]No over the top financial projections.
7]The company is looking for 15%ROE,far in excess of your acceptable under 10%.
Please stay away,and let others enjoy investing in this company.....,

Glad I didn't take this advice and I didn't stay away either as suggested

I have enjoyed my time in Scales (since last June) as much as everybody else has.

And it has exceeded my targets as well but time for a rethink as to the future

[h2so4]

Priced at 2x book value and earning $36.7m. I know where I'm leaving my money.

[h2so4]

........+ dividends.

[LAC]

Do you all think there will be a lot of irrational exuberance over this announcement?

Like drive the price up to $2.50 next week?

Might be the time to take me profits and look elsewhere

Already $2.45, might not have to wait till next week:)

[Lewylewylewy]

Does anyone have any information about SCL's NZD hedging for selling abroad? I'd imagine that low NZD would have a positive impact in the coming year... If they are currently locked into a currency hedge that's expiring and going into a lower NZD, the good news could continue next year...

[Pricey]

Late last year (December 2014) it was stated that for the next 12 months slightly more than 75% of Mr Apple’s expected net foreign exchange exposure has been hedged. I expect new hedge transactions would have been entered into earlier in the year though.

At these levels I expect a drop back down to around $2.30ish in the new year noting that Direct Capital's (together with its co-investors) 18.5% holding comes off escrow from 31 December 2015 (i.e. they will probably sell).

[axe]

Divvy hopefully not "many months" away Roger. :) Last years was in the account before Xmas.

Joshuatree - I too have considered reducing my SCL holding but haven't done so. Gut says that SP will stall until dividend announcement in November (should be an "sweet" increase) and a nice SP boost to go with it, followed by a "sweet" divvy as an Xmas bonus. I wouldn't want to be out of this when they make the divvy announcement.

:) :) :) :) :) :)

[janner]

Not much mention about his stock so far..

Let's just keep it under the radar :-))

Shhhh...