Scales - SCL

[Lewylewylewy]

I tried to buy in today but missed the opportunity to jump onto the Apple cart. Nevermind, plenty more catastrophe ahead to enjoy.

[percy]

I recently added to my holding after attending the agm.
Last year SCL updated the market on 31st July.I expect we will get an update about the same time this year.
I am expecting they will upgrade their forecasts,sighting another record crop,quality of the crop,and prices they are achieving.
All their other divisions,ie coolstores,pet food,juicing and shipping will be trading well.
I also expect they will leverage their low debt position with another bolt on earnings accretive acquisition.

[Beagle]

I recently added to my holding after attending the agm.
Last year SCL updated the market on 31st July.I expect we will get an update about the same time this year.
I am expecting they will upgrade their forecasts,sighting another record crop,quality of the crop,and prices they are achieving.
All their other divisions,ie coolstores,pet food,juicing and shipping will be trading well.
I also expect they will leverage their low debt position with another bolt on earnings accretive acquisition.

Agree 100%. The significant correction we've had looks like an overreaction to me. I expect some institutional buying tomorrow, (end of financial quarter and end of financial year for many) in a wide range of oversold quality stocks. In addition its widely anticipated that SCL is the next stock to be included in the NZX50.

[sb9]

Agree 100%. The significant correction we've had looks like an overreaction to me. I expect some institutional buying tomorrow, (end of financial quarter and end of financial year for many) in a wide range of oversold quality stocks. In addition its widely anticipated that SCL is the next stock to be included in the NZX50.

Good recovery after that non-event sell down last week and also post ex-divvy. Now look forward to juicy divvy to be paid out day after tomorrow on 8th, bit bigger amount now that I've increased my holding....

[Beagle]

Good recovery after that non-event sell down last week and also post ex-divvy. Now look forward to juicy divvy to be paid out day after tomorrow on 8th, bit bigger amount now that I've increased my holding....

Good stuff mate. I couldn't resist having another bite at $2.92 ex divvy recently thanks to Brexit, low hanging fruit taste very sweet. Speaking of bargains apple related I'm just having my second Jazz apple for the day for afternoon tea. On special at $2.50kg at Countdown this week and very fresh, colourful and tasty they are I might add :)

]Looking forward to a market update later this month or early August.

Disc: My #1 highest conviction stock holding. 12% portfolio allocation.

[sb9]

Good stuff mate. I couldn't resist having another bite at $2.92 ex divvy recently thanks to Brexit, low hanging fruit taste very sweet. Speaking of bargains apple related I'm just having my second Jazz apple for the day for afternoon tea. On special at $2.50kg at Countdown this week and very fresh, colourful and tasty they are I might add :)

]Looking forward to a market update later this month or early August.

Disc: My #1 highest conviction stock holding. 12% portfolio allocation.

Good on ya Roger. Did contemplate buying more went it ex-divvy and price was around that 290 level, but guess what that money got allocated to AIR :), hence couldn't add more.

Speaking of apples, yes the ones in super market look so nice, fresh and vibrant red colour. Think we're so lucky to have such a premium crop at very affordable price.

[brend]

added myself during the brexit...saw these apples up in China during May, must be SCL?
8150

[sb9]

Divvy just got paid into bank a/c...:t_up:

[blockhead]

Divvy just got paid into bank a/c...:t_up:



It shows already ? couldn't see mine an hour or so ago

[sb9]

It shows already ? couldn't see mine an hour or so ago

I checked half an hour ago around the time I put comment here and its already in there.

[vin]

divvy received, stoked

[Beagle]

Dined out on a very nice lunch at Fortuna Buffet restaurant on a small part of my Scales dividend today. Over-ate something chronic...probably won't need much for dinner tonight...I know, probably just a fresh apple :) Gotta enjoy some of the spoils folks otherwise what's the point of it all !

[winner69]

Dined out on a very nice lunch at Fortuna Buffet restaurant on a small part of my Scales dividend today. Over-ate something chronic...probably won't need much for dinner tonight...I know, probably just a fresh apple :) Gotta enjoy some of the spoils folks otherwise what's the point of it all !

At least a better choice than Valentines ....but a Scales shareholder should have gone more upmarket ha ha

Any oysters at that place?





/

[sb9]

Dined out on a very nice lunch at Fortuna Buffet restaurant on a small part of my Scales dividend today. Over-ate something chronic...probably won't need much for dinner tonight...I know, probably just a fresh apple :) Gotta enjoy some of the spoils folks otherwise what's the point of it all !

Good on ya Rog, mine was more kiwiana with OCEANZ fish and chips lunch, very nice though!!!

[see weed]

Dined out on a very nice lunch at Fortuna Buffet restaurant on a small part of my Scales dividend today. Over-ate something chronic...probably won't need much for dinner tonight...I know, probably just a fresh apple :) Gotta enjoy some of the spoils folks otherwise what's the point of it all !
No div here, just a scabby old dried out cheese sandwich,:( but looking forward to next meal/ST meeting. Might share my plan B method if anyone interested, at the next meeting. Be interesting to see how sp goes in the next few months , might try and pick up a few in the next Brexit type crash.;)

[Biscuit]

... just a scabby old dried out cheese sandwich ...

Hey, that sounds like my lunch, plus three apples off the old apple tree in the orchard (bit of black spot and not too sweet, but pretty tasty all the same). Bought in on Brexit Friday, so no money in the bank yet, guess there is a check on the way.

[Beagle]

At least a better choice than Valentines ....but a Scales shareholder should have gone more upmarket ha ha

Any oysters at that place?

/

Rated 3.8 / 5.0 on the zomato restaurant review website (a lot better than Valentines) but no oysters mate. Have to confess I have a bit of a weakness for a buffet meal from time to time, you definitely don't leave feeling hungry :)

[winner69]

Rated 3.8 / 5.0 on the zomato restaurant review website (a lot better than Valentines) but no oysters mate. Have to confess I have a bit of a weakness for a buffet meal from time to time, you definitely don't leave feeling hungry :)

By myself tonite - might celebrate au good year by Scales and cook up an old fashioned carpetbag steak with brandy sauce for dinner - followed by a bit of apple crumble.

(Bit of a waste of good oysters but yummy anyway)

[janner]

[QUOTE=see weed;627777 just a scabby old dried out cheese sandwich,)[/QUOTE]

Cheese !!... I feel like Ben Gunn. There is no good hard " Tasty ". cheese here..

However ... I also, will dine well on my divvy :-))

[In4a$]

Well, don't normally gloat but I to am enjoying the divvy, my biggest this year so far. :)

[drcjp]

Anticipating a market update within the next fortnight. Be interesting to see how the harvest volumes and pricing premium structure is holding up. I would expect the power of China Resources to be making its presence felt too.

[couta1]

Anticipating a market update within the next fortnight. Be interesting to see how the harvest volumes and pricing premium structure is holding up. I would expect the power of China Resources to be making its presence felt too. Needs something to halt the downtrend, accumulated quite a few between $3-$3.05 thinking that range would be the bottom but heading toward $2.90 ish now, must be bored holders getting impatient or something along those lines.

[see weed]

Needs something to halt the downtrend, accumulated quite a few between $3-$3.05 thinking that range would be the bottom but heading toward $2.90 ish now, must be bored holders getting impatient or something along those lines.
Maybe selling a bit of SCL and buying AIR and ATM. Then come back to SCL once dust settles;).

[Sideshow Bob]

Maybe selling a bit of SCL and buying AIR and ATM. Then come back to SCL once dust settles;).

Maybe the power of this site - 3 of the most followed shares! :confused:

[Yoda]

Thinking of selling too, and moving to buy more TIL but may need to be quick. Or maybe more NTL. or just stay, but it is trending down a bit,
move to the ones up-trending, but have the W/e to DMOR ....... Anyway its good to have a spread ...i think .

[percy]

Thinking of selling too, and moving to buy more TIL but may need to be quick. Or maybe more NTL. or just stay, but it is trending down a bit,
move to the ones up-trending, but have the W/e to DMOR ....... Anyway its good to have a spread ...i think .

I recently added to my SCL holding,after attending the agm.
I am expecting a very positive upgrade at the end of the month.
No intention of selling any .

[couta1]

I recently added to my SCL holding,after attending the agm.
I am expecting a very positive upgrade at the end of the month.
No intention of selling any . I'm with you, last time I sold prematurely it cost me mega bucks in lost gains, holding tight for the long haul this time.

[percy]

I recently added to my holding after attending the agm.
Last year SCL updated the market on 31st July.I expect we will get an update about the same time this year.
I am expecting they will upgrade their forecasts,sighting another record crop,quality of the crop,and prices they are achieving.
All their other divisions,ie coolstores,pet food,juicing and shipping will be trading well.
I also expect they will leverage their low debt position with another bolt on earnings accretive acquisition.

Above posted 28-06-2016.
I still feel the same.
Stay calm.
Looking forward to the update.

[Beagle]

I agree with Percy and Couta1. Quality growth company trading on a compelling fundamental's. Possibility of a Chinese takeover at any stage.

[QOH]

As a holder of TIL and SCL, I see more potential upside in SCL plus a decent dividend at current prices.

[Ace]

Yea totally agreed with you guys, not much has changed fundamentally. Considering adding some more in the near future, tipping the 'scales' heavily on the apple side lol...here for a long time and a good time.

Disc. Holding

[winner69]

As a holder of TIL and SCL, I see more potential upside in SCL plus a decent dividend at current prices.

I think the opposite

Sold over 1/2 of my Scales last week and added to my already overweight Trilogy holding

Completely overweight Trilogy now - but thats another story

[NZSilver]

SCL and TIL both good prospects, TIL more risk/growth/ hopefully > SP appreciation, SCL - higher DIV, consistent, lower risk (except for a weather event making for poor harvest).

[King1212]

Guys, looking to jump in on Monday... Any thoughts? Thanks

[sb9]

Guys, looking to jump in on Monday... Any thoughts? Thanks

In my opinion anything under $3 is good entry point, however pls DYOR.

[King1212]

[QUOTE=sb9;628502]In my opinion anything under $3 is good entry point, however pls DYOR.[/QUOTE


Thanks

[Yoda]

I recently added to my SCL holding,after attending the agm.
I am expecting a very positive upgrade at the end of the month.
No intention of selling any .
Thanks to all for your opinions and reassuring comments. Much appreciated.

[janner]

As said in the Til thread..

Did not take up the offer.. Spent the monies increasing the SCL holding....

Minor as it maybe.. :-)))

Far more tangible. IMHO..

[boysy]

Any impact for scl ?

http://i.stuff.co.nz/business/farming/82092018/China-threatens-reprisals-on-NZ-dairy-wool-and-kiwifruit-if-government-doesn-t-back-off-cheap-steel-inquiry

[janner]

Any impact for scl ?

http://i.stuff.co.nz/business/farming/82092018/China-threatens-reprisals-on-NZ-dairy-wool-and-kiwifruit-if-government-doesn-t-back-off-cheap-steel-inquiry

Bwaaaahahhaaa.. I wish.....

[nextbigthing]

Guys, looking to jump in on Monday... Any thoughts? Thanks

Yes, go big. Real big! Nextbigthing

Disc, may have a holding.

[King1212]

Yes, go big. Real big! Nextbigthing

Disc, may have a holding.

what u mean? Are u going in big?

[King1212]

World market was not good closed on Friday due to Turkey military coup....so will watch closely next couple days.....

[vin]

what u mean? Are u going in big?

Haha. He's suggesting go big.. Buy lots!!!

SCL is my biggest holding by far.. too far.

[Balance]

World market was not good closed on Friday due to Turkey military coup....so will watch closely next couple days.....

Coups in Turkey are a dime a decade.

Unfortunately, this is one time that a coup would be good given the way the current government has been complicit in the rise of ISIS.

[LAC]

Above posted 28-06-2016.
I still feel the same.
Stay calm.
Looking forward to the update.

Do you think they will get close to last years bumper year? I hoping for 34m NPAT this time round which would make decent buying at under $3, it's a great long term stock.

[percy]

Do you think they will get close to last years bumper year? I hoping for 34m NPAT this time round which would make decent buying at under $3, it's a great long term stock.

I have heard it is a bigger crop than last year,with the orchards delivering more premium varieties,which should mean better prices.

[winner69]

Do you think they will get close to last years bumper year? I hoping for 34m NPAT this time round which would make decent buying at under $3, it's a great long term stock.

Jeez LAC - thats less.than the $39m last year

If it's only $34m than maybe $3 is about fair value at the moment?

Hope percy's hearing is ok and that it is indeed a larger crop this year with heaps more premium varieties being picked.

[LAC]

Jeez LAC - thats less.than the $39m last year

If it's only $34m than maybe $3 is about fair value at the moment?

Hope percy's hearing is ok and that it is indeed a larger crop this year with heaps more premium varieties being picked.

Hi W69, yes I thought when it reached the $3.40s it was well overpriced for me, ended up selling and buying again at $3.09. The hype of the Chinese just went a bit too far for me. I do think it will be great long term and $3 at the moment is "fair" value imo, wasn't saying its a bargain atm - but is a bargain long term;)
I am hoping to be wrong about the 34mil and Percy right:) Im just not sure if they will top the $39m from last year. (hope to be proven wrong)

[Beagle]

IMO Crop will surpass last year's and so will prices. Growth elsewhere within the business, pet food, services to other industry participants and liquid-storage will all add to the growth story. Prospects for those buying at the current price look very "juicy" to me :) In the background we have them as a very likely candidate for next cab off the rank for NZX50 inclusion and our new Chinese friends have lots of money and even if they choose not to take this over there are significant distribution opportunities they'll being to the table. I believe patience will be well rewarded with this stock.

[QOH]

Can you have an oversupply of apples. Would it be good or bad if they have to dump them, got me thinking when I was paying 29 cents kg for them in pakn save a fortnight ago.

[King1212]

Can you have an oversupply of apples. Would it be good or bad if they have to dump them, got me thinking when I was paying 29 cents kg for them in pakn save a fortnight ago.

maybe from a local orchard? SCL exports it all, especially with mid income families growing in Asia....apples will be on thier table?

[janner]

Can you have an oversupply of apples. Would it be good or bad if they have to dump them, got me thinking when I was paying 29 cents kg for them in pakn save a fortnight ago.

Maybe only in NZ when you have a " Bumper " crop... 29 cents a kg is cheaper than here, and Fruit & Vegies are really cheap ( and crappy ) here..

Could be an indication as to how large the exports will be :-)))))))))))

Dump them ??.. NO !!.. That is why they have a juicing facility .. :-))))))))))))

With the residue going into Pet food :-))))))

Win, Win.. aye Percy..

Disc. Holding..

[percy]

Maybe only in NZ when you have a " Bumper " crop... 29 cents a kg is cheaper than here, and Fruit & Vegies are really cheap ( and crappy ) here..

Could be an indication as to how large the exports will be :-)))))))))))

Dump them ??.. NO !!.. That is why they have a juicing facility .. :-))))))))))))

With the residue going into Pet food :-))))))

Win, Win.. aye Percy..

Disc. Holding..

They did say at last year's agm all the best NZ apples were exported,so it was either impossible, or near impossible, to buy a decent apple in NZ.

[Hectorplains]

They did say at last year's agm all the best NZ apples were exported,so it was either impossible, or near impossible, to buy a decent apple in NZ.

Grief, any remaining sense of objectivity just left this thread.

[Beagle]

They did say at last year's agm all the best NZ apples were exported,so it was either impossible, or near impossible, to buy a decent apple in NZ.

Confirming this as I was there. Many of the apples people see in supermarkets in N.Z. are those rejected under the rigorous quality control selection procedures used for export apple selection. Scales refer to the export quality control selection process as their pack out rate, approx. 78%. SCL use reflective foil for enhanced colour which improves their pack out rate.

It is hard to find quality fresh apples anywhere around where I live. Recently we stocked up big time because quality fresh Jazz apples were available at Countdown for $2.50 kg. (very rare to get apples of that quality at that price in an Auckland supermarket at this time of year). (We do not shop at Pak and Save, too down-market for us)

[kiwidollabill]

Heartland fruit tend to have the best quality locally, their 'Smitten' variety is way better than Jazz IMHO.

http://www.luvyafruit.co.nz/

[Hectorplains]

Confirming this as I was there. Many of the apples people see in supermarkets in N.Z. are those rejected under the rigorous quality control selection procedures used for export apple selection. Scales refer to the export quality control selection process as their pack out rate, approx. 78%. SCL use reflective foil for enhanced colour which improves their pack out rate.

It is hard to find quality fresh apples anywhere around where I live. Recently we stocked up big time because quality fresh Jazz apples were available at Countdown for $2.50 kg. (very rare to get apples of that quality at that price in an Auckland supermarket at this time of year). (We do not shop at Pak and Save, too down-market for us)

Jazz is not one of the varieties grown by Mr Apple...a decent apple, though eh?

[Beagle]

Jazz is not one of the varieties grown by Mr Apple...a decent apple, though eh?

Just enjoyed another one before this post. Very nice :)

[Balance]

Can you have an oversupply of apples. Would it be good or bad if they have to dump them, got me thinking when I was paying 29 cents kg for them in pakn save a fortnight ago.

I picked up a new variety, Kanzi, from the local greengrocers last week - 99 cents per kg. Not Japanese but Belgium sourced variety - cross between Braburn and Royal Gala.

Very nice and crunchy but the fruits were obviously second grade with blemishes and some bruising - green grocer said he decided to take a 100kg bin to try out. Normal price is $3.99/kg.

As mentioned in a previous post, I met a China importer at a trade function a month or more ago who said he could not source any apples from Mr Apple as they were fully sold out.

[stevevai1983]

I picked up a new variety, Kanzi, from the local greengrocers last week - 99 cents per kg. Not Japanese but Belgium sourced variety - cross between Braburn and Royal Gala.

Very nice and crunchy but the fruits were obviously second grade with blemishes and some bruising - green grocer said he decided to take a 100kg bin to try out. Normal price is $3.99/kg.

As mentioned in a previous post, I met a China importer at a trade function a month or more ago who said he could not source any apples from Mr Apple as they were fully sold out.

I went to CR's supermarket last weekend. I didn't see any Mr Apple there.
Maybe my home city isn't big enough...

[kiwidollabill]

'Eve' apple on sp @$2.99 tonight at the local New World, another great variety

[Onion]

Chinese officials warned kiwifruit marketing company Zespri there could be retaliation if New Zealand investigated claims of steel dumping. - Stuff

Apple exporters will be in their sights too!

[Balance]

- Stuff

Apple exporters will be in their sights too!

http://www.sharetrader.co.nz/showthread.php?10339-Black-Monday/page176

A lot of nonsense - parties with vested interests (think Bluescope Steel and Fletcher Steel for eg) feeding mis-information to stir up problems.

Nobody in Wellington and in trade circles know about it!

[macduffy]

http://www.sharetrader.co.nz/showthread.php?10339-Black-Monday/page176

A lot of nonsense - parties with vested interests (think Bluescope Steel and Fletcher Steel for eg) feeding mis-information to stir up problems.

Nobody in Wellington and in trade circles know about it!

Indeed, Balance.

We don't need these commentators equating "dumping" with selling goods "below cost" either - not with many of our dairy farmers producing milk at a loss!

[IAK]

Hmmm, the unintended consequences of biological controls.

The giant willow aphid, which has a devastating effect on willow trees, has moved to other hosts as well, including apple trees, it has been discovered. Hopefully, it's an isolated incident.

http://www.radionz.co.nz/news/country/309048/willow-pest-moving-on-to-new-tasty-delights

Disc. Holding

[macduffy]

Hmmm, the unintended consequences of biological controls.


Was it introduced as a biological control - or did it "migrate" here of its own accord?

[IAK]

Was it introduced as a biological control - or did it "migrate" here of its own accord?

Looks like it got here via Australia via Asia. In anycase it's widespread now.

[King1212]

Interesting....I was thinking hard out to put my wife money on SCL...after 5 days of reading and researching...my gut feeling told me not to....

[winner69]

Interesting....I was thinking hard out to put my wife money on SCL...after 5 days of reading and researching...my gut feeling told me not to....

Jeez - your wife trust you with her money

I wouldn't do such a thing. The consequences if it turns to custard not worth it.

Studies show women generally make better investment decisions than men - let her invest it for herself.

[King1212]

Jeez - your wife trust you with her money

Studies show women generally make better investment decisions than men - let her invest it for herself.

Yes..after researching ..I asked her what to invest in....chicken, Apple or media....and she choose media...:)

[Balance]

http://www.nbr.co.nz/article/nz-annual-fruit-exports-jump-led-record-kiwifruit-sales-b-192114

Apple exports up $130m to $565m for the year to 30 June 2016.

"Fruit exports are going through a purple patch as previous investment in developing markets and varieties starts to pay off. The increase in annual fruit exports was led by kiwifruit, which set a new record, up 41 percent to $1.7 billion, while apple exports increased 23 percent. the apple industry has developed new trademarked varieties that are favoured by higher returning Asian market."

[percy]

http://www.nbr.co.nz/article/nz-annual-fruit-exports-jump-led-record-kiwifruit-sales-b-192114

Apple exports up $130m to $565m for the year to 30 June 2016.

"Fruit exports are going through a purple patch as previous investment in developing markets and varieties starts to pay off. The increase in annual fruit exports was led by kiwifruit, which set a new record, up 41 percent to $1.7 billion, while apple exports increased 23 percent. the apple industry has developed new trademarked varieties that are favoured by higher returning Asian market."

Balance,thanks for the link.
I am looking forward to SCL's update with confidence.!! [a great deal of confidence..lol]

[vin]

My biggest holding by far, also looking forward to the update

[Beagle]

http://www.nbr.co.nz/article/nz-annual-fruit-exports-jump-led-record-kiwifruit-sales-b-192114

Apple exports up $130m to $565m for the year to 30 June 2016.

"Fruit exports are going through a purple patch as previous investment in developing markets and varieties starts to pay off. The increase in annual fruit exports was led by kiwifruit, which set a new record, up 41 percent to $1.7 billion, while apple exports increased 23 percent. the apple industry has developed new trademarked varieties that are favoured by higher returning Asian market."

Looks very good :t_up:

P.S. Actually thinking about this over dinner its looks exceptional. 23% growth in apple exports PLUS this is on the back of a record crop last year PLUS growth in services to others industry participants, (services to other industry participants provided were circa $80m IIRC last year), PLUS growth in coolstore revenue with new Auckland coolstore PLUS growth in pet food PLUS growth in liquid storage PLUS I am sure there is some more growth I have forgotten about PLUS the company is probably about to update the market PLUS the company has significantly underperformed the rampant NZX50 lately so the valuation now looks truly compelling PLUS the possibility of a Chinese takeover. You could say shareholders are very positioned :) That's a lot of PLUS's and not a single negative that springs readily to mind.

[Balance]

Looks very good :t_up:

Company gave a market update last year on 31 July about how well the season had gone for them in 2015.

Am looking forward to an update maybe end of week?

SCL outperformed the industry average growth last year so here's keeping the fingers crossed.

[nextbigthing]

Plus there's still time to accumulate at a very reasonable price!

[h2so4]

Plus there's still time to accumulate at a very reasonable price!

Done:)::):):)

[sb9]

Company gave a market update last year on 31 July about how well the season had gone for them in 2015.

Am looking forward to an update maybe end of week?

SCL outperformed the industry average growth last year so here's keeping the fingers crossed.

I think so, 31st being Sat we might see an update (if there's one) in next couple of days.

[drcjp]

Any update this week would be general, but enticing. Last year they gave notice of interim result on 5th August, then profit upgrade on 13th, then interim rtesult on 27th August. A bit more time to go yet.
Plenty more apples, dog food and cool storing to go yet.

[Beagle]

Plenty of juice to come too...volume on the buy side building nicely, first time I've seen that for quite a while.

[see weed]

Plenty of juice to come too...volume on the buy side building nicely, first time I've seen that for quite a while.
Will get some when the dust settles;).

[winner69]

Plenty about apples (and kiwifruit and honey) in this Westpac report

http://www.westpac.co.nz/assets/Business/Economic-Updates/2016/Bulletins-2016/Industry-Insights-Horticulture-July-2016.pdf

[Beagle]

Will get some when the dust settles;).

Dust has settled, SP back from $3.40 not so long ago, compelling value and strong growth here mate.

[Ghost Monkey]

Dust has settled, SP back from $3.40 not so long ago, compelling value and strong growth here mate.


Strong growth? Do you mean in the shareprice back to $3.40, or in the company overall? I like this company, don't get me wrong, but having a look through their latest report I'm struggling to see where "strong growth" is coming from. Apple trees don't grow overnight. Are they buying up orchards and/or other companies, or pulling more growers into their fold??? How are they planning to continue their recent growth rates? Report seemed a bit lite on that front.

Potential growth, certainly. Strong growth? Dunno. This year's bumper crop could be next year's poor crop and then what?????

Disc. not sure whether to invest in apples or stick to my ghost bananas.

[winner69]

Dust has settled, SP back from $3.40 not so long ago, compelling value and strong growth here mate.

Looking a bit more positive

Seems to have a good day all round for those hunting for value

[Beagle]

Strong growth? Do you mean in the shareprice back to $3.40, or in the company overall? I like this company, don't get me wrong, but having a look through their latest report I'm struggling to see where "strong growth" is coming from. Apple trees don't grow overnight. Are they buying up orchards and/or other companies, or pulling more growers into their fold??? How are they planning to continue their recent growth rates? Report seemed a bit lite on that front.

Potential growth, certainly. Strong growth? Dunno. This year's bumper crop could be next year's poor crop and then what?????

Disc. not sure whether to invest in apples or stick to my ghost bananas.

Both...you must have read a different report than I did...just read the introduction section and that sets the platform for the rest of the report. Growth mentioned countless times.
http://scalescorporation.co.nz/wp-content/uploads/2016/03/2015-Annual-Report.pdf
Since then we have the new Chinese part owner who will be assisting with distribution into China. If you can't see the growth to come with this company then I wish you all the best with your ghost banana's :)

[Pricey]

Strong growth? Do you mean in the shareprice back to $3.40, or in the company overall? I like this company, don't get me wrong, but having a look through their latest report I'm struggling to see where "strong growth" is coming from. Apple trees don't grow overnight. Are they buying up orchards and/or other companies, or pulling more growers into their fold??? How are they planning to continue their recent growth rates? Report seemed a bit lite on that front.

Potential growth, certainly. Strong growth? Dunno. This year's bumper crop could be next year's poor crop and then what?????

Disc. not sure whether to invest in apples or stick to my ghost bananas.

The company. Have a look over the last couple of annual reports and you'll easily discover its growth prospects.

Its horticulture division has substantially increased its total planted orchard area and undertaken a large orchard replanting and re-grafting programme over the last couple of years. While this had the effect of reducing production in the initial years, the number of mature hectares is now expected to increase each year until 2021. The replanting has also been to varieties which command a premium in Asia. This coupled with stellar growing conditions, the reserves banks desire to push the NZD lower, a "new" cornerstone shareholder (a major Chinese food distributor with access to over 3,000 supermarkets), not to mention its other divisions, means I just had to buy more yesterday :)

[Snow Leopard]

Strong growth? Do you mean in the shareprice back to $3.40, or in the company overall? I like this company, don't get me wrong, but having a look through their latest report I'm struggling to see where "strong growth" is coming from. Apple trees don't grow overnight. Are they buying up orchards and/or other companies, or pulling more growers into their fold??? How are they planning to continue their recent growth rates? Report seemed a bit lite on that front.

Potential growth, certainly. Strong growth? Dunno. This year's bumper crop could be next year's poor crop and then what?????

Disc. not sure whether to invest in apples or stick to my ghost bananas.

There was one 'strong growth' and one 'very strong growth' but both are in an historical context and as we should all know "past performance is not a guarantee of future returns".

The countless times that growth is mentioned is actually 26, including the two above. Some people are given to hyperbole when they run out of fingers and toes.

You are right to be cautious.

Best Wishes
Paper Tiger

Disc: SCL is my second largest holding on the NZX

[Raz]

What I see is a little hyped and conflicted market, been a long term hold for me however have started to add an additional trading parcel to my portfolio since april as clear market conditions have developed ideal to trade.

[Beagle]

There was one 'strong growth' and one 'very strong growth' but both are in an historical context and as we should all know "past performance is not a guarantee of future returns".

The countless times that growth is mentioned is actually 26, including the two above. Some people are given to hyperbole when they run out of fingers and toes.

You are right to be cautious.

Best Wishes
Paper Tiger

Disc: SCL is my second largest holding on the NZX

He gave them eyes but they would not see...

[Ghost Monkey]

Both...you must have read a different report than I did...just read the introduction section and that sets the platform for the rest of the report. Growth mentioned countless times.
http://scalescorporation.co.nz/wp-content/uploads/2016/03/2015-Annual-Report.pdf
Since then we have the new Chinese part owner who will be assisting with distribution into China. If you can't see the growth to come with this company then I wish you all the best with your ghost banana's :)

Sure, I see potential. But I've also watched you talk up AIR, CVT and to a lesser extent HLG this year and all are down in that time. So perhaps I just have a healthy skepticism. This is my hard earned cash after all. Talking up 'strong growth' doesn't mean it will continue. 24% ROCE is great, will it be repeated? You always sound so certain in your posts, but the market seems very cautious on this stock at the moment. Undervalued? Perhaps. But there are a lot of risks in this type of industry too.

But I admit, it's been awhile since I read that report and doing so again I acknowledge that you may well be right. However, I still question strong growth. I'm gonna give it a 'potential moderate growth' and may yet invest (in which case I hope you're right and I'm wrong:)))

[drcjp]

Fwiw, I put SCL at about 7% under done on current form. I anticipate growth news at end of Aug to another 10%. The real story will be in Nov and how much grunt CR is delivering. Happy holder and lover of apple pie/fraiche + rose 😁

[sb9]

Fwiw, I put SCL at about 7% under done on current form. I anticipate growth news at end of Aug to another 10%. The real story will be in Nov and how much grunt CR is delivering. Happy holder and lover of apple pie/fraiche + rose 

Also its just not a horticulture company anymore, well diversified now with two other divisions Cold Stores and Pet Food. Hence the frequent use of word "growth" in their annual report.

[Beagle]

CVT been a great stock for anyone that's been in longer than 5 minutes. Haven't been interested in HLG for quite some time...even tiger's so bored with their life they have nothing better to do that stir the pot know its warmer than usual.

[winner69]

A growth stock is one that achieves above average earnings growth relative to the general economy or the market as a whole.

Scales earning beats these by a long way - and will continue to do so for a while

Yes - "strong growth' are appropriate words for Scales

Issue is - what do punters want o pay for 'strong growth'

I'm willing to pay $4 plus - so todays price is 'cheap' in that respect, just that the market thinks overwise

[Beagle]

The company. Have a look over the last couple of annual reports and you'll easily discover its growth prospects.

Its horticulture division has substantially increased its total planted orchard area and undertaken a large orchard replanting and re-grafting programme over the last couple of years. While this had the effect of reducing production in the initial years, the number of mature hectares is now expected to increase each year until 2021. The replanting has also been to varieties which command a premium in Asia. This coupled with stellar growing conditions, the reserves banks desire to push the NZD lower, a "new" cornerstone shareholder (a major Chinese food distributor with access to over 3,000 supermarkets), not to mention its other divisions, means I just had to buy more yesterday :)

Well said. With the NZX50 at around 7200 the market overall is "really quite stretched". Thankfully pockets of value remain here and there for those prepared to spend some time understanding them.

[Beagle]

A growth stock is one that achieves above average earnings growth relative to the general economy or the market as a whole.

Scales earning beats these by a long way - and will continue to do so for a while

Yes - "strong growth' are appropriate words for Scales

Issue is - what do punters want o pay for 'strong growth'

I'm willing to pay $4 plus - so todays price is 'cheap' in that respect, just that the market thinks overwise

Agree 100%. Perhaps more to the point is once the Chinese have a thorough understanding of the company and its growth prospects how long before they're prepared to pay $4 a share for the lot !

[Balance]

Ghost Monkey is correct in his observation that one needs to be cautious with companies which over-use a term - in this case, SCL peppering their annual report with 'growth' in second second paragraph.

SCL has earned the right however imo to over-use the 'growth' word because the company has not only delivered on growth (revenues, markets, profits, margins, product range, business etc etc) but has articulated how they believe they will continue to deliver growth.

Contrast that with an example like PEB - the management peppering 'excited, excitement and exciting' all over their presentations and commentaries with scant regard to the fact that their excitement phase was well and truly over, and they have no coherent plans to deliver more excitement.

[Ace]

Agreed - Ghost monkey raises a valid point in being cautious. Regarding Scales growth, I do believe there is a lot of potential there; Scales have taken the necessary steps to ensure organic growth within the company remains strong in both the near term and the long term - including the Orchid Redevelopment Programme as Roger has pointed out, which will start paying off and continue to pay off as the programme is ongoing and adapts as the business grows. Scales has also hinted towards both horizontal and vertical acquisitions - which they labelled as "bolt-on" companies in their annual report. I'd be far more cautious if Scales relied entirely on acquisitions to drive growth compared to focusing on organic growth, but as they say "our business is agribusiness" or something along those lines. With Scales current track record, I have faith that management will deliver; however Paper Tiger is right and that the past is never indicative of what the future may hold.

My concern is that Scales is working with a commodity which means to stay competitive against it's competitors the only thing we can do really is compete on price. Although we have one thing going for us, the apples are NZ premium apples and in a way, it turns that commodity into a franchise which gives us a lot of power in the market; and as SB9 has said; it's no longer just a horticulture company anymore. Take from it what you will, however from what I see there is a lot of room left to grow especially with CR now on the board or playing field - although the impact CR will have on Scales is just speculation at this time I still have every reason to believe Scales has a lot of potential growth going for it.

[James108]

There is also a certain amount of growth that has already been paid for and has not yet flowed through to the financial statements. Such as Auckland coldstore but also new orchards coming on line, which from memory I calculated as low single digit growth in horticulture over the next 4-5 years. That may seem low but as I said earlier it requires no further cash investment.

I agree that some on here may not be facotring in a normalising of apple prices and there is a certain risk here that long term apple price/harvest is below current levels (I would consider this likely even). With that in mind I see value around $3.20. I recently topped up at $2.99.

[Beagle]

Nice rebound this week, was only $2.96 on Tuesday, so a $3.12 finish was nice to see for the week and the stock only on a historical PE of 11 at $3.12, (recall previous press articles about the level of growth, opps there's that word again, in apple exports this season) Plenty of old hands on here were recommending this stock as genuine value (in an otherwise pretty fully valued market), and any newbies than jumped in at under $3 should be very pleased they had the courage to do so.

Many long term investors will know this is a great hold and while there is always risk with any share that derives the majority of its revenue from horticulture the list of stocks that are without risk is very short and there are plenty of stocks with similar growth prospects trading on PE's well into the late 20's and even 30's. Its all about relative value for the risk and I for one am a very happy holder.

[winner69]

Carmel Fisher told her Kingfish devotees yesterday "“We’re not going to see a lot of double-digit earnings growth ..........but the returns should on average be around 8 to 10 percent.”

I reckon Scales earnings growth will exceed 10%. (Maybe by a lot)

That seems to be 'strong growth' to me

[Ace]

Carmel Fisher told her Kingfish devotees yesterday "“We’re not going to see a lot of double-digit earnings growth ..........but the returns should on average be around 8 to 10 percent.”

I reckon Scales earnings growth will exceed 10%. (Maybe by a lot)

That seems to be 'strong growth' to me

Yup, especially since it's above what was expected in the prospectus. If that isn't strong growth then I don't know what is.
We're seeing some nice movement in the SP today.

[Fox]

We're seeing some nice movement in the SP today.

Beat me to it. Must've been that Statistics NZ report last week that gave Mr Market the confidence in Mr Apple aye

[sb9]

Beat me to it. Must've been that Statistics NZ report last week that gave Mr Market the confidence in Mr Apple aye

Add to that Mr Market might have heard few snippets about a possible trading update soon??

[drcjp]

word is spreading its seems. everyone wants a piece of the PIE :D

[Beagle]

Looks very good :t_up:

P.S. Actually thinking about this over dinner its looks exceptional. 23% growth in apple exports PLUS this is on the back of a record crop last year PLUS growth in services to others industry participants, (services to other industry participants provided were circa $80m IIRC last year), PLUS growth in coolstore revenue with new Auckland coolstore PLUS growth in pet food PLUS growth in liquid storage PLUS I am sure there is some more growth I have forgotten about PLUS the company is probably about to update the market PLUS the company has significantly underperformed the rampant NZX50 lately so the valuation now looks truly compelling PLUS the possibility of a Chinese takeover. You could say shareholders are very positioned :) That's a lot of PLUS's and not a single negative that springs readily to mind.

Knew I had forgotten something. PLUS widely considered to be the next stock that goes into the NZX50 index. We saw a very significant increase in CVT's price when it got included in the index, less so with TGL.
Index inclusion and consequent index tracker fund buying certainly can't hurt its SP growth prospects given moderate volume of late.

[Ghost Monkey]

Knew I had forgotten something. PLUS widely considered to be the next stock that goes into the NZX50 index. We saw a very significant increase in CVT's price when it got included in the index, less so with TGL.
Index inclusion and consequent index tracker fund buying certainly can't hurt its SP growth prospects given moderate volume of late.

Can't argue with you, and also, I apologize for my initial knee-jerk reaction.

You're right. This is a good company, and I see many reasons why the SP could continue north. Management seems very capable with wise investment choices made.
And I certainly acknowledge the strong growth they have had recently. Very strong. Obviously some see this strong growth continuing through this year. My pick is for more moderate growth, that's all. Still, placed high on my watchlist. Will trade ghost bananas for some apples.....

[Beagle]

No probs mate. I guess it all comes down to how one interprets the phrase strong growth / moderate growth. I think the obvious overuse of the "growth" term in the latest annual report probably gives the clear impression of how the directors see it and they're probably best placed to know :)

[drcjp]

Jeepers , gonna get a speeding ticket on the sp if this keeps up☺

[winner69]

@ANZ_cambagrie: ANZ NZ commodity price index up 2% led by dairy. 6.9% on quarter. Benefits eaten up by NZD. Farm gate prices down 0.4% m/m


Looking at the numbers I note the horticulture sector index is up ~8% in NZD terms since December last.

Apples a decent (?) chunk of this sector

All bodes well for a stellar return from exports this year

[pierre]

Half-year results to be announced on 25 August. Patience required for 3 whole weeks (and a day).

[Beagle]

Half-year results to be announced on 25 August. Patience required for 3 whole weeks (and a day).

That'll be too long for some :)

[winner69]

Half-year results to be announced on 25 August. Patience required for 3 whole weeks (and a day).

Made same announcement this time last year

A week later a profit UPGRADE .....and then a week or so after that the actual profit announcement

I reckon this timetable will be repeated - just haven't finalised the result yet

All looking good pierre - only a week to wait

[sb9]

Made same announcement this time last year

A week later a profit UPGRADE .....and then a week or so after that the actual profit announcement

I reckon this timetable will be repeated - just haven't finalised the result yet

All looking good pierre - only a week to wait

Well, seems someone wanted to get in urgently and sudden spike to 339....

[emveha]

Here is growth for you:

http://www.scoop.co.nz/stories/BU1608/S00189/new-zealand-plants-another-million-apple-trees.htm

[Biscuit]

Here is growth for you:

http://www.scoop.co.nz/stories/BU1608/S00189/new-zealand-plants-another-million-apple-trees.htm

2o years ago I asked a friend of mine - who was then an apple grower - how best to prune our apple tree. "a horizontal cut at ground level" was the reply. Swings and roundabouts, now it is flavour of the month.

[LAC]

2o years ago I asked a friend of mine - who was then an apple grower - how best to prune our apple tree. "a horizontal cut at ground level" was the reply. Swings and roundabouts, now it is flavour of the month.
Was he grooming his cows when u asked him that question:)

[Biscuit]

Was he grooming his cows when u asked him that question:)

No, but I think it was not a coincidence that one of the bigger property developers around Christchurch in the decade after that was called "Apple Fields"

[Balance]

No, but I think it was not a coincidence that one of the bigger property developers around Christchurch in the decade after that was called "Apple Fields"

I had shares in Apple Fields!

It was a land banking exercise rather than an apple business.

Tom Kain spent more time and resources fighting the Apple and Paer Board than he did running the orchards!

[Balance]

2o years ago I asked a friend of mine - who was then an apple grower - how best to prune our apple tree. "a horizontal cut at ground level" was the reply. Swings and roundabouts, now it is flavour of the month.

Three things have changed :

1. NZ Apple & Pear Board monopoly has been removed,

2. Australian and Asian/China markets have opened up,

3. Apple varieties now cater to the different taste profiles of the different markets.

[King1212]

With all things happened to Our kiwi fruits..would it affect our apples too?

[stoploss]

With all things happened to Our kiwi fruits..would it affect our apples too?
Shouldn't , but I wouldn't be surprised if they changed the rules ...,,,

[Beagle]

Here is growth for you:

http://www.scoop.co.nz/stories/BU1608/S00189/new-zealand-plants-another-million-apple-trees.htm

My read on that would be "strong growth" opps, I might have used that term before on this thread :)

[stoploss]

My read on that would be "strong growth" opps, I might have used that term before on this thread :)

My only problem with this , is we will keep planting ... Just like we did with Sav Blanc causing a Savalanche ...and the export of bulk Sav to be bottled into own brand labels of the big supermarkets .Taking away the premium product ....Bit like mass dairy conversions , produce more and more of the white stuff .... price collapse ....
It's fine to produce them but you have to be able to market/ sell them each year at an acceptable price ... that certainly isn't happening with the white stuff at the moment .NZ is such a boom bust economy , pity we seem doomed to repeat the same mistakes .

[Biscuit]

NZ is such a boom bust economy , pity we seem doomed to repeat the same mistakes .

It is, as it was, and always will be, in some industries. Just make sure you are in early and out before the bust!

[LAC]

My only problem with this , is we will keep planting ... Just like we did with Sav Blanc causing a Savalanche ...and the export of bulk Sav to be bottled into own brand labels of the big supermarkets .Taking away the premium product ....Bit like mass dairy conversions , produce more and more of the white stuff .... price collapse ....
It's fine to produce them but you have to be able to market/ sell them each year at an acceptable price ... that certainly isn't happening with the white stuff at the moment .NZ is such a boom bust economy , pity we seem doomed to repeat the same mistakes .
Someone will come up with the next big thing using apples.... Apple crumple will make you lose weight because the Kardashians said so, or cider made with NZ apples reduces cancer, eat nz apples because Martha Stewart said so etc etc. and that will keep em coming for more..

[nextbigthing]

Someone will come up with the next big thing using apples....

I definitely cannot be recreated using only apples.

[Fox]

I have a different take on this, due to the growing market and adaptation of apple variety for the Asian taste buds. This implementation of the sweeter variety has only just come into play as a result of planting the specific trees a few years back. I'm sure the Asian market will continue to grow despite any 'booms/busts' due to the well known health benefits and marketability of NZ apples in Asia and the sheer demand for produce over there. Already we can see a change in the target markets for NZ growers and I believe with the low kiwi dollar and the growing Asian market, Scales has nothing to worry about for some time.

[GTM 3442]

? . . .NZ is such a boom bust economy , pity we seem doomed to repeat the same mistakes .

It's the price you pay for being a commodity product exporter. You get the chance to take the price the market offers, or. . .

[Balance]

It's the price you pay for being a commodity product exporter. You get the chance to take the price the market offers, or. . .

Yup.

Commentators liked to commend Fonterra as a success story for NZ - which it is but actually could be even more so as a huge success story if Fonterra had followed the likes of Kraft, Nestle or Danone and moved into added value consumer branded products.

Too late unfortunately.

[Snow Leopard]

So are we saying that Scales needs to move up the value chain and start making:

Apple pies;
Apple chips;
Apple crumble (or better yet Rhubarb & Apple crumble).

I think they should definitely diversify into the rhubarb market.

Best Wishes
Paper Tiger

[Beagle]

Hmmm Apple Crumble...cut it out I'm getting hungry.

They definitely need to lift their game at the Annual meeting in terms of hospitality, apple crumble and ice-cream, (perhaps a new apple flavoured variety) would make a good start, along with apple juice, pet food samples for my dogs and of course fresh apples.

[winner69]

As long as they stay away from alcohol ......might turn off some 'ethical investors'

[GTM 3442]

So are we saying that Scales needs to move up the value chain and start making:

Apple pies;
Apple chips;
Apple crumble (or better yet Rhubarb & Apple crumble).

I think they should definitely diversify into the rhubarb market.

Best Wishes
Paper Tiger

Pies would be a good start. If the Greeks can do it. . .

But overall, NZ is a commodity exporter. On my travels, its usual to see NZ cheese in nothing smaller than 5kg blocks, NZ meat exported as whole carcasses, 25kg sacks of milk powder, apples discounted to the bottom 1/3 of the price range, and so on and so forth.

The only "pre-packed" products have been Hansells "Pancakes-in-a-Flash", wine, and Silver Fern Farms beef fillets.

Plenty of Vegemite, never any Marmite. . .

[nextbigthing]

Pies would be a good start. If the Greeks can do it. . .

But overall, NZ is a commodity exporter. On my travels, its usual to see NZ cheese in nothing smaller than 5kg blocks, NZ meat exported as whole carcasses, 25kg sacks of milk powder, apples discounted to the bottom 1/3 of the price range, and so on and so forth.

The only "pre-packed" products have been Hansells "Pancakes-in-a-Flash", wine, and Silver Fern Farms beef fillets.

Plenty of Vegemite, never any Marmite. . .

Getting a bit off topic, but NZ needs its own national spirit. The Japanese have Sake, Greeks have Ouzo, Russians have Vodka etc. NZ needs a national spirit that we can market and export. Perhaps something apple based is a good place to start.

If someone wants to get this going I'm keen to become business partners. Quite happy to be responsible for product 'research and development' :p

[emveha]

Getting a bit off topic, but NZ needs its own national spirit. The Japanese have Sake, Greeks have Ouzo, Russians have Vodka etc. NZ needs a national spirit that we can market and export. Perhaps something apple based is a good place to start.

If someone wants to get this going I'm keen to become business partners. Quite happy to be responsible for product 'research and development' :p

You know, you might be on to something there. Have you ever tried Calvados?

[Balance]

Hmmm Apple Crumble...cut it out I'm getting hungry.

They definitely need to lift their game at the Annual meeting in terms of hospitality, apple crumble and ice-cream, (perhaps a new apple flavoured variety) would make a good start, along with apple juice, pet food samples for my dogs and of course fresh apples.

Haha - a few Apple iPads and iPhones for lucky draws too?

[Balance]

So are we saying that Scales needs to move up the value chain and start making:

Apple pies;
Apple chips;
Apple crumble (or better yet Rhubarb & Apple crumble).

I think they should definitely diversify into the rhubarb market.

Best Wishes
Paper Tiger

Go to a place like Thailand and see the amazing range of added value products they create from their fruits. As you are obviously familiar with that part of the world, there's no need for me to elaborate.

Reminds me very much of NZ 30 years ago when the restaurant and food scene consisted of roast lamb/beef, chewy steaks, sandwiches and sweet & sour pork. And yes, rhubarb dessert. Amazing what interaction with the world and a bit of imagination have transformed the food scene here?

[Snow Leopard]

Go to a place like Thailand and see the amazing range of added value products they create from their fruits. As you are obviously familiar with that part of the world, there's no need for me to elaborate...

Trouble with you not elaborating is that we, including me, have to try and guess what it is you might not be elaborating about.

Best Wishes
Paper Tiger

[Balance]

Trouble with you not elaborating is that we, including me, have to try and guess what it is you might not be elaborating about.

Best Wishes
Paper Tiger

Had to google nangka = jackfruit. Thought it was an Asian rhubarb for a minute!

[Balance]

https://www.nzx.com/companies/TGG/announcements/286801

Augers very well for SCL.

[vin]

Not too far off all time highs. Gee I can't believe I didn't top up when it was below $3 a couple of weeks back.

[sb9]

Not too far off all time highs. Gee I can't believe I didn't top up when it was below $3 a couple of weeks back.

Hindsight is wonderful thing isn't it vin. Luckily I did top up on the last day before it went ex-div.

I think tomorrow's expected OCR cut is having positive affect on companies that benefit from lower NZD for longer.

[Beagle]

Good stuff mate. I couldn't resist having another bite at $2.92 ex divvy recently thanks to Brexit, low hanging fruit taste very sweet. Speaking of bargains apple related I'm just having my second Jazz apple for the day for afternoon tea. On special at $2.50kg at Countdown this week and very fresh, colourful and tasty they are I might add :)

]Looking forward to a market update later this month or early August.

Disc: My #1 highest conviction stock holding. 12% portfolio allocation.

From 6 July only just over one month ago. Brexit delivered some very juicy pickings of low hanging fruit. Be nice if there was some more Jazz apples at Countdown at that price too, getting harder to get a decent apple at a reasonable price.

[GTM 3442]

From 6 July only just over one month ago. Brexit delivered some very juicy pickings of low hanging fruit. Be nice if there was some more Jazz apples at Countdown at that price too, getting harder to get a decent apple at a reasonable price.

Plenty of deeply discounted Mr Apple Royal Gala available just down the road. About half to two thirds the price of the Chilean Jazz.

[winner69]

Scales up 30% since the Chinese bought in 3 months ago - that's pretty healthy

More good news at this weeks ASM? Wouldn't be surprised if we hear about better than expected F16 and F17 not looking pretty good as well.

My modelling shows that under some scenarios (and not that aggressive) the share price could be $4.85 this time next year. That's only 40% - not much more than what one would expect as a minimum anyway

And lurking is a real possibility of a rerating by the market (higher PE) and even a full takeover at a decent premium


Nextbigthing - I reckon $4.85 (not that miserly figure you mentioned elsewhere)

But over $5 wouldn't surprise

Things going well at the moment - esp my targets (except AIR but that will come right again)

[nextbigthing]

Nextbigthing - I reckon $4.85 (not that miserly figure you mentioned elsewhere)

But over $5 wouldn't surprise

Things going well at the moment - esp my targets (except AIR but that will come right again)

Ok, $5 by Christmas. Deal.

[Beagle]

Plenty of deeply discounted Mr Apple Royal Gala available just down the road. About half to two thirds the price of the Chilean Jazz.

You'd expect that seeing as Royal Gala one of the first fruit varieties of the season. Probably picked in mid Feb nearly 6 months ago and been in cold storage for quite a while. Will be end of line stuff and seconds left over, hardly fresh product now is it ! Not worried in the slightest...SCL been creaming this latest crop and shareholders get to enjoy the juicy rewards.

One thing, the longer our new Chinese friends take to grasp they have a tiger by the tail the better, that's all the more they have to pay. Already at ~ $3.40 they have to pay north of $4.00 to have half a chance of taking over SCL, shortly it'll be north of $5 :t_up:

[winner69]

Ok, $5 by Christmas. Deal.

No no nextbigthing - $4.50 by Christmas - $5 some time early next year

[drcjp]

Just to be devils advocate, the sp won't be going anywhere if they "only" meet targets on the 25th.

[Ace]

Just to be devils advocate, the sp won't be going anywhere if they "only" meet targets on the 25th.

No worries, investing with the long term horizon in mind right? Not much volume flowing through today and some really funny sell offers haha

[Snow Leopard]

Just to be devils advocate, the sp won't be going anywhere if they "only" meet targets on the 25th.

The targets I am aware of are from last Decembers announcement (http://stocknessmonster.com/news-item?S=SCL&E=NZSE&N=274952):


...Looking ahead to 2016 the directors expect EBITDA to be between $48 millionand $55 million for the twelve month period. This lower level of financial
performance, compared to 2015...

are there any more recent numbers from the company?

Best Wishes
Paper Tiger

[Hectorplains]

You'd expect that seeing as Royal Gala one of the first fruit varieties of the season. Probably picked in mid Feb nearly 6 months ago and been in cold storage for quite a while. Will be end of line stuff and seconds left over, hardly fresh product now is it ! Not worried in the slightest...SCL been creaming this latest crop and shareholders get to enjoy the juicy rewards.

You're welcome to be not worried but your rational for that is well off. Gala is picked late Feb into early April. The apple harvest finishes in early May with Granny Smith. No nz apples in the supermarket in August are freshly picked.

[sb9]

Made same announcement this time last year

A week later a profit UPGRADE .....and then a week or so after that the actual profit announcement

I reckon this timetable will be repeated - just haven't finalised the result yet

All looking good pierre - only a week to wait

Nothing this week, still working through those big numbers...may be update next week before actual results on 25th.

[winner69]

The targets I am aware of are from last Decembers announcement (http://stocknessmonster.com/news-item?S=SCL&E=NZSE&N=274952):

...Looking ahead to 2016 the directors expect EBITDA to be between $48 millionand $55 million for the twelve month period. This lower level of financial performance, compared to 2015...


are there any more recent numbers from the company?

Best Wishes
Paper Tiger

Hmm PT - you seemed to have silenced everybody

That $48m to $55m ebitda guidance for F16 does seem to be the only one - and that is indeed 10%-20% below what was achieved in F15

The share price was $2.40 when they said that. It is now 40% higher ...without any new news except the Chinese buying in at $2.60

Share price appreciation would imply punters are actually looking for a boomer of a half year result and updated guidance for the full year way beyond ebitda of $61m (F15 number)

But ongoing disclosure guidelines would suggest that $62m is tops - (if 15% movement is the guidelines for disclosing material changes than seeing it hasn't been done so far that is about as far as they can go)

You ruined the weekend PT - maybe $5 or even $4 share price is pie in the sky and my optimistic forecasts have no basis.

Suppose need to value as a no / low growth company on dividend yield and add a premium for a full take over

Hope drclip is wrong when he says the share price won't be going anywhere if they only meet expectations. At least he didn't say collapse.

[winner69]

Not a dividend hound but 17 cents doesn't seem much

[tim23]

Hi - where did you get 17c from as I can't recall it being that much?

[Fox]

Hi - where did you get 17c from as I can't recall it being that much?
6.5c interim + final with a 4c special.

[Beagle]

Not a dividend hound but 17 cents doesn't seem much

Its all about "strong growth" this one mate but 5% fully imputed ~7% gross isn't too shabby in this ultra low interest rate environment. Apple crop well up on last year. I'm not worried about the last official forecast being last December, this company has a history of under promising and over delivering which is something of a lost art on the NZX these days. I guess when a business has been going as long as Scales has its nice to see some old fashioned ways of doing things.

[winner69]

Hi - where did you get 17c from as I can't recall it being that much?

This is what they said - Taking into account the 6.5c interim and 4c special dividends paid in January 2016, dividends for the 2015 year total 17c per share,

[winner69]

I guess when a business has been going as long as Scales has its nice to see some old fashioned ways of doing things.

Raz said this after the ASM - I felt the AGM was very professional..nearly thought for a moment I was back in the international market place rather than the NZ company environment...

Good endorsment

[Ace]

Hmm PT - you seemed to have silenced everybody

That $48m to $55m ebitda guidance for F16 does seem to be the only one - and that is indeed 10%-20% below what was achieved in F15

The share price was $2.40 when they said that. It is now 40% higher ...without any new news except the Chinese buying in at $2.60

Share price appreciation would imply punters are actually looking for a boomer of a half year result and updated guidance for the full year way beyond ebitda of $61m (F15 number)

But ongoing disclosure guidelines would suggest that $62m is tops - (if 15% movement is the guidelines for disclosing material changes than seeing it hasn't been done so far that is about as far as they can go)

You ruined the weekend PT - maybe $5 or even $4 share price is pie in the sky and my optimistic forecasts have no basis.

Suppose need to value as a no / low growth company on dividend yield and add a premium for a full take over

Hope drclip is wrong when he says the share price won't be going anywhere if they only meet expectations. At least he didn't say collapse.

In this post you're assuming the market is 100% efficient of which we all know it isn't, so maybe you're optimistic forecasts still have some basis....hahaha

[winner69]

In this post you're assuming the market is 100% efficient of which we all know it isn't, so maybe you're optimistic forecasts still have some basis....hahaha

My concern is that the forecasts in my DCF models are so far away from Scales guidance it's not funny (even allowing for under promising over delivery)

Lesson - need to reality check my forecasts

But looking forward to hear what they say about the rest of F16 and hopefully a much better F17

[h2so4]

My concern is that the forecasts in my DCF models are so far away from Scales guidance it's not funny (even allowing for under promising over delivery)

Lesson - need to reality check my forecasts

But looking forward to hear what they say about the rest of F16 and hopefully a much better F17

High dividend high growth should alleviate yours concerns.
$5.50 sounds fair value to me.

[Ace]

High dividend high growth should alleviate yours concerns.
$5.50 sounds fair value to me.

Why stop there? $10 it is :laugh::laugh:

[drcjp]

OK, at $3.47 I reckon SCL is now pretty much fully valued on current numbers (ie. $55M EBITDA). And they will know their 1H numbers by now, so one assumes no upgrade or the like coming.
Thus, next week looking for some CR grunt inspired growth targets and solid evidence of supply chain in hand to meet that demand.

[sb9]

Well 350 now, looking good for results to be out on Thursday...

[Balance]

Well 350 now, looking good for results to be out on Thursday...

The way CVT sp dropped away towards reporting date vs SCL going up heading towards Thursday - market is expecting a good result.

Maybe a special dividend or share buyback to celebrate?

[Lewylewylewy]

Agreed, I expect a good result

[Beagle]

News has a curious way of leaking out ahead of announcements doesn't it !

[Balance]

News has a curious way of leaking out ahead of announcements doesn't it !

Imagine the number of leakage points when you consider the period leading to the preparation of the final results - management, directors, auditors, secretaries (yes, they still exist), printers, night time office cleaners, etc etc.

[Beagle]

More holes than a sieve mate.

[Balance]

More holes than a sieve mate.

Still, better than the bad old days under National Government when insider trading was basically legal as far as Joe Public was concerned and only those directly related to a company like directors and senior managers were classified as insiders! How relatives and friends of insiders got super wealthy via tips from insiders!

[Beagle]

Well, we've come a long way in a short time since 12 November 2014 when it was $1.35 but I feel this is a journey that's only just begun.

People talk Balance, just the reality of life isn't it.

[sb9]

Well, we've come a long way in a short time since 12 November 2014 when it was $1.35 but I feel this is a journey that's only just begun.

Wow, thanks for refreshing memory there Roger. My first parcel was bought around that time at 141 I think and second parcel was most recent before going ex-divvy. Very happy and look forward to more great things in years ahead.

[vin]

Happy holder, looking forward to results

[janner]

I realize that we are dealing with a premium product.

However this could have some effect on sales outside of Asia.

https://www.rt.com/business/356858-polish-apple-farmers-russian-embargo/

Disc. Happy holder.

[winner69]

Well, we've come a long way in a short time since 12 November 2014 when it was $1.35 but I feel this is a journey that's only just begun.

People talk Balance, just the reality of life isn't it.

I only came on board July last year (about 170 odd)

When I announced my arrival one long time poster said "Please stay away,and let others enjoy investing in this company"

I was mortified at the time but glad I didn't #### off as told too - i've enjoyed the ride

[Biscuit]

I realize that we are dealing with a premium product.

However this could have some effect on sales outside of Asia.

https://www.rt.com/business/356858-polish-apple-farmers-russian-embargo/

Disc. Happy holder.


Apparently the Ruskies were happy with fairly low quality fruit and varieties that are not in demand in other markets. The Poles are consequently struggling to find other markets for some of their produce.

[RTM]

News has a curious way of leaking out ahead of announcements doesn't it !

Yes. So I wonder what this means for the AIR result ? Many more people with snippets of info there.

[Biscuit]

Yes. So I wonder what this means for the AIR result ? Many more people with snippets of info there.

AIR must be one of the most over talked about shares on the forum! Are they selling apples now?

[winner69]

Hope Scales don't use any negative sounding words when discussing China in the announcement

That would be bad for the share price

[Balance]

Hope Scales don't use any negative sounding words when discussing China in the announcement

That would be bad for the share price

Doubt will be an issue - they could not supply a China importer I met at a conference who approached them this year as their crop was all sold.

[drcjp]

Taking note of the difference btw market response to MET and ATM today - one had a plan going ok, the other not so much. Profit ain't everything....show us yah plans SCL 😎

[Beagle]

Taking note of the difference btw market response to MET and ATM today - one had a plan going ok, the other not so much. Profit ain't everything....show us yah plans SCL ��

Wonder if we'll see excessive use of the word growth in the announcement tomorrow. :)

[macduffy]

Wonder if we'll see excessive use of the word growth in the announcement tomorrow. :)

That's not a problem if it's followed up with actual growth!

:cool:

[LAC]

SEK and SCL:) looking fwd to both.

[mshierlaw]

The targets I am aware of are from last Decembers announcement (http://stocknessmonster.com/news-item?S=SCL&E=NZSE&N=274952):



are there any more recent numbers from the company?

Best Wishes
Paper Tiger

Bring it on, suspect tomorrow will show a SP retraction based on above. Tossed up a sale today @3.50 but too busy at work to think it through properly. So ..... HOLDING.

[drcjp]

Wonder if we'll see excessive use of the word growth in the announcement tomorrow. :)

Lol. Would be nice, but really looking for nice cool projections with plantings for meteoric impact in Q3/4 if you catch my drift.

[winner69]

H1 NPAT $33.8m up 3% on last year

Then this -

• Full year guidance upgraded to EBITDA between $55 million and $62 million, equating to a net profit after tax of between $29.6 million and $34.6 million.

So very very seasonal - don't make any dosh in 2nd half of year

So excitment all ocer for another six months

[winner69]

I might be a little dim but when you read things like - Apple export volumes up 12 per cent on 2015 export volumes / Food Ingredients EBITDA up 33 per cent, / pet food sales volumes up 24% on 1H15 and a whole lot of ther big numbers you expect a bumper result

But NPAT only up 3% - fractionally ahead of same period last year

What am I missing?

[emveha]

I might be a little dim but when you read things like - Apple export volumes up 12 per cent on 2015 export volumes / Food Ingredients EBITDA up 33 per cent, / pet food sales volumes up 24% on 1H15 and a whole lot of ther big numbers you expect a bumper result

But NPAT only up 3% - fractionally ahead of same period last year

What am I missing?

Cold storage didn't do so well.

[Golfer01]

I might be a little dim but when you read things like - Apple export volumes up 12 per cent on 2015 export volumes / Food Ingredients EBITDA up 33 per cent, / pet food sales volumes up 24% on 1H15 and a whole lot of ther big numbers you expect a bumper result

But NPAT only up 3% - fractionally ahead of same period last year

What am I missing?


Currency, Currency, Currency........

[winner69]

'Growth' used 9 times in presentation

Noticed 'strong' used 9 times as well - with strong performance / strong demand the most popular but 'strong growth' only reported once

[LAC]

ummmmmm not as flashy as I expected.

[winner69]

Main point - IS IT GOOD OR BAD in the eyes of the market

GOOD = share price $4 plus soon

BAD (or just OK) = share price $3 odd

I glad a lightened up a while ago

[King1212]

we will see how the market react today...

[Ace]

Main point - IS IT GOOD OR BAD in the eyes of the market

GOOD = share price $4 plus soon

BAD (or just OK) = share price $3 odd

I glad a lightened up a while ago

Market probably expects more IMHO, although I'm not fussed and I'm quite happy with the report. I've only had a chance to briefly whiz through it since I'm at work and although NPAT was only up 3%, it's a lot better than the prospectus and we're managing to keep up, or slightly improve on last years record performance.

[winner69]

On reflection I think this is a case of -

Solid report and no matter what happens to the share price today be patient - the rewards will continue for some years

[winner69]

Cold storage didn't do so well.

.....but Meateor doing great

12 tons of stuff for pet food - wow

Love that part of the business - impressive operation

[King1212]

interesting market reaction....

[Ace]

Down 23 already, I guess the market really is like Dr. Jekyll and Mr. Hyde haha

[LAC]

Market not liking it this morning.....down 6% already. Hope it closes a little better. Still a long term holder so not too much of a worry "yet"

[h2so4]

This time last year it's market cap was 276m and yesterday it was 489m and the half yearly result only shows a marginal increase in profit. Figures.

[Golfer01]

Market not liking it this morning.....down 6% already. Hope it closes a little better. Still a long term holder so not too much of a worry "yet"

Seems to be a typical reaction with companies which have seen a rapid increase in the SP in a short space of time (AKA A2). I'm getting a few more at these prices.

[winner69]

This time last year it's market cap was 276m and yesterday it was 489m and the half yearly result only shows a marginal increase in profit. Figures.

So a PE (if you fancy that measure) of about 16

When that aussie Costa floated last year it had a PE of about 15/16 and noodles/me suggested that scales could be 'rerated' Well it has been - but is it performing?

I see that Costa had a stunning result today and currently it's PE is 19

Will look at EV / EBITDA multiples later.

At least dividend yield will support the share price for a while

[couta1]

Seems to be a typical reaction with companies which have seen a rapid increase in the SP in a short space of time (AKA A2). I'm getting a few more at these prices. You will probably be buying mine, good lot up for sale, sold some yesterday at $3.55, have been partially skunked as with A2.(Note to self, upon rapid share price rise, never think it's going to go up on results day) Using my proceeds to buy some up and coming divvy payers. Of course the silver lining for me is that Air hasn't had a rapid rise, so that should happen after the result tomorrow.

[Beagle]

Out of interest looked at SCL and SEK for comparative purposes from NZX website.

SEK - EPS-0.271, PE of 17.15 at current sp of $4.65, shares issued 16,359,299

SCL - EPS-0.279, PE of 11 at current sp of $3.08, shares issued 139,779,906

Even if we were attribute 14 as a decent PE for SCL we're looking at sp close to $4, and they're more diversified with 3 key division now.

I think we should see sp back up sooner, just my 2 cents DYOR.

From 18/5/16 Mid point of their forecast for this year, (they have a track record of beating forecasts) gives $32.1m or 23 cps. Top end of forecast, more likely in my opinion, $34.6m gives 24.7 cps.

Now the question is given that last years underlying profit was $35.7m so I expect we're basically looking at a flat year with no profit growth what's the right PE in an ultra low interest rate environment ?

Industry headwinds in the cool store operations, I presume this relates to Dairy ?
Volumes up pretty nicely but gross margin down quite a lot so in $Kiwi terms we're not seeing the price increases that were eluded too in earlier months trade stat's...trade stat's implied price increases ?????
Pet food good growth but some concerns regarding possible lack of input ingredients so perhaps some impact in the second half.
Currency obviously a bigger issue than the market and I was expecting.
Got ahead of itself at $3.50.

My preliminary thinking is fair value is based on top end of forecast guidance range 24.7 cps and a PE of 13-14 seems right to me gives target price in 6 months time of $3.21- $3.45

[Ghost Monkey]

So what's the verdict? "Strong growth"? Initial market reaction seems not... perhaps expecting more?

[LAC]

Hi W69, yes I thought when it reached the $3.40s it was well overpriced for me, ended up selling and buying again at $3.09. The hype of the Chinese just went a bit too far for me. I do think it will be great long term and $3 at the moment is "fair" value imo, wasn't saying its a bargain atm - but is a bargain long term;)
I am hoping to be wrong about the 34mil and Percy right:) Im just not sure if they will top the $39m from last year. (hope to be proven wrong)

Still think NPAT of 34 is about right for this one.

[drcjp]

Slide 5 explains quite a bit. Suspect we are in lull phase where volumes and market take breather to wait for new trees etc. to come on-line. Dumpers gotta dump.
Main uncertainty for me is impact and added value that CR should be bringing.

[winner69]

Jeez - never thought i'd see both Scales and Wynard at the top of the loser's board

[couta1]

Jeez - never thought i'd see both Scales and Wynard at the top of the loser's board All out now, expecting this to drift back to around $3.10 at some point, will buy back then.

[Snow Leopard]

This is a good result and the future looks as fine as fine as can be.

Includes a profit upgrade who could ask for anything more?

Best Wishes
Paper Tiger

[couta1]

This is a good result and the future looks as fine as fine as can be.

Includes a profit upgrade who could ask for anything more?

Best Wishes
Paper Tiger Mr Market.

[King1212]

SLI posted loss..up 12.5%
SCL posted profit down 6%

What the hell....market is so violate. It happened to ATM and CVT too....

[Balance]

SLI posted loss..up 12.5%
SCL posted profit down 6%

What the hell....market is so violate. It happened to ATM and CVT too....

You will always have traders who bought in anticipation of good results and who will sell irrespective. Headlines and headline numbers mean a lot to them.

Then you have longer term investors waiting for results to reposition their shareholdings - be them up or down.

The days post results - that's when it gets interesting. Analysts talk to management (and are allowed to discuss outlook etc) to 'fine-tune' their forecasts. The institutions identify which analyst is the best and/or closest to the company and rely on their forecasts to then buy or sell.

[drcjp]

You will always have traders who bought in anticipation of good results and who will sell irrespective. Headlines and headline numbers mean a lot to them.

Precisely. And my sources tell me a number of institutional/fund managing types are sweating of late due to poor decisions made 6 months ago.

[King1212]

You will always have traders who bought in anticipation of good results and who will sell irrespective. Headlines and headline numbers mean a lot to them.

Precisely. And my sources tell me a number of institutional/fund managing types are sweating of late due to poor decisions made 6 months ago.


What poor decisions?

[axe]

Well spotted. http://www.fernridge.co.nz/

14. ACQUISITION OF SUBSIDIARYOn 11 January 2016 the Group acquired a further 25% of the share capital of associate entity, Fern Ridge Produce Limited (Fern Ridge), increasingits shareholding to 75%. In a separate transaction, 2.12% of the shares were then sold to an employee of Fern Ridge and Scales entered intoagreements with the remaining shareholders of Fern Ridge whereby those shareholders have an option to ‘Put’ their shares to Scales at a valuebased on a multiple of the Fern Ridge profits but with a minimum value equivalent to that paid to the selling shareholders. The obligations toacquire the shares under the Put options are included in other financial liabilities.


I think there might be more to this CR buy-in than meets the eye.
And no, its not takeover, imo.

SCL own 100% of Mr Apple, who in turn own 100% of NZ Apple Ltd. NZ Apple Ltd in turn own 72.68% of Fern Ridge Produce Ltd which is the exporting arm of things. Now Fern Ridge do more than just apple, they do seafood and meat as well. So with 15% of SCL, CR now hold ~10% equivalent in Fern Ridge and via board documents will get to find out and have access to NZ export markets and know-how across Asia-ME.

Which provides info for the next acquisition stake and steady, careful consolidation of CR in worldwide agriculture, seafood and meat industries.

Velly wily CR did not come down in last shower.

[axe]

Impact of the acquisition on the results of the GroupFern Ridge contributed $637,000 to the Group profit after taxation for the interim period. Group revenue for the interim period includes$27,416,000 in respect of Fern Ridge

[drcjp]

King1212: Wrong shares, wrong bracket and wrong jurisdictions. Lots of them.

[Balance]

http://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/news/article.cfm?c_id=3&objectid=11700537

Forgot about the top-up from insurance claims last year.

The increase in underlying operating profits would of course be much higher.

[winner69]

http://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/news/article.cfm?c_id=3&objectid=11700537

Forgot about the top-up from insurance claims last year.

The increase in underlying operating profits would of course be much higher.

You losing your touch mate ... ha ha

[Balance]

You losing your touch mate ... ha ha

Too many results to try and remember!

[Beagle]

http://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/news/article.cfm?c_id=3&objectid=11700537

Forgot about the top-up from insurance claims last year.

The increase in underlying operating profits would of course be much higher.

Thanks for your posts on this one mate. You are right the analysts seem to like the result http://www.4-traders.com/SCALES-CORP-LTD-21021561/consensus/ and I am sure there's a good future ahead. Probably got a bit ahead of itself lately at $3.50 but on any meaningful correction like what's going on today or a bit more I start to get interested. Disc: Trimmed down a bit at $3.30, interested in reacquiring at the right price.

I think a target price of around $3.50-3.60 in 12 months is about right.

[winner69]

Market speaking post announcement

At best all I can see is SCL share price being range bound between 300 and 330 for a while

Reduced holding a while ago - the rest might be destined for the same treatment

[drcjp]

No prunes on my All Bran
------------------------------

One is more bullish. Am watching the trades, volumes and general market language here. Positioning is taking place and one believes significant trades are pending (at the right price of course). There is enough in the current data to suggest another upgrade in the offing. Further, trials by Alibaba sold 60,000 apples in 90 minutes: http://www.stuff.co.nz/business/better-business/83585576/chinas-alibaba-casts-net-towards-small-kiwi-firms

Why they choose apples? Because of DEMAND. Oysters - for other reasons connected to relaxing of 1 child policy perhaps?

Anyway all this tells a story that isn't over yet. And CR knows it.

P.S. this can only help. http://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/news/article.cfm?c_id=3&objectid=11701585

[Beagle]

Our new Chinese friends are certainly a wild card. While I concur with analysts that think $3.50-$3.60 is a fair target price in 12 months we cannot rule out the chance of a takeover and I feel they'd have to make an offer of $4+ to get traction.

[tim23]

Agree Roger under $4 won't cut it

[Ghost Monkey]

Thanks for your posts on this one mate. You are right the analysts seem to like the result http://www.4-traders.com/SCALES-CORP-LTD-21021561/consensus/ and I am sure there's a good future ahead. Probably got a bit ahead of itself lately at $3.50 but on any meaningful correction like what's going on today or a bit more I start to get interested. Disc: Trimmed down a bit at $3.30, interested in reacquiring at the right price.

I think a target price of around $3.50-3.60 in 12 months is about right.


You told me a few weeks ago there was nothing but 'strong growth'. So what changed?

[Beagle]

Strong growth tempered somewhat by rising currency. Its also a question of how the currency affects things going forward. The recent bounce well above 70 cents isn't especially helpful for exporters.
Good strongly growing company with excellent prospects though. Chinese will take this over eventually, you mark my words. I gave this one a big write-up at $2.90 ex divvy only just over a month ago. Anyone who took notice in a timely way is still a happy punter :)

[janner]

You told me a few weeks ago there was nothing but 'strong growth'. So what changed?

Learn to do your own research.. Do not rely on advice from this site.

As is so often told by Rodger and so many others.. DYOR :-))))))))

[janner]

Look. Listen. Learn.

This is one of the best sites you will come across.

[Ghost Monkey]

You misunderstand my intention with above post. That's ok. Lets just get back to the apples.

[Ace]

Learn to do your own research.. Do not rely on advice from this site.

As is so often told by Rodger and so many others.. DYOR :-))))))))

I think what Ghost Money was alluding to was the inconsistency with what Roger stated and done via action, as much as I admire forums members here; as investors inconsistencies bring up red flags - for example with Roger selling out at 3.30 but stating strong growth is similar to a Director saying the company is healthy and great with "strong growth prospects", and then selling out his holdings - because essentially as shareholders we are somewhat, all be it, small owners of the business. Not saying what Roger done is wrong, he can do and say whatever he wishes and there's good reason for what he does, it was just inconsistent with what he said - and as investors that peaks our curiosities. Roger does not have to disclose or tell us anything and I think it's very admirable that he can tell us what he has done with his portfolio and holdings.

That being said, I also noticed we look to the market to validate if we are right or wrong. As value investors, most of the time the market will disagree with us; and the reason for that is because we look for market inefficiencies in pricing to make money so being wrong is something we should get used to - until we make a profit that is. Unless you are a trader, what the market does should generally be irrelevant. If the market was always right; we wouldn't be making money would we. We've seen it time and time again, may be exaggerated but for example, I've seen ATM jump to 2.6 from 1.7 and drop back down cliffs in the same day. The way some posters change their opinions due to market sentiment worries me, not just in the Scales thread - just overall; so yes you're right Janner for pointing out that you should do your own research. You wouldn't let anyone tell you that your v12 engine is actually a 4cyl if you researched it and knew what you were talking about.

[Jantar]

I think what Ghost Money was alluding to was the inconsistency with what Roger stated and done via action, as much as I admire forums members here; as investors inconsistencies bring up red flags - for example with Roger selling out at 3.30 but stating strong growth is similar to a Director saying the company is healthy and great with "strong growth prospects", and then selling out his holdings - because essentially as shareholders we are somewhat, all be it, small owners of the business. ...........
I have no problems with such inconsistencies. Each person manages their own portfolio in a particular manner and for a particular reason, and hence may act contrary to what the signals say.

I have a spreadsheet that monitors the current market prices, my average purchase price for each investment, and a target price to obtain a minimum return on investment after tax of at least 5%. Yesterday that spreadsheet advised me to reduce my holding in Scales, which I did at $3.25. As a result the average purchase price for my remaining shares has dropped so low, that Scales becomes a Hold at almost any price to meet my required ROI.

Of major interest as far as I am concerned, that of the 13 companies I currently hold it is giving me strong Buy signals for only three of them: AIR, GNE and HLG.

[winner69]

Even Scales full year result commentaries tempered the previous 'strong growth' narrative some what

That changed my view as well -- less 'growth' than previously hyped 'strong growth' - and market seems to have done the same

[Beagle]

Even Scales full year result commentaries tempered the previous 'strong growth' narrative some what

That changed my view as well -- less 'growth' than previously hyped 'strong growth' - and market seems to have done the same

That's it exactly Winner. All the signs were extremely positive, trade data in the months leading up to the result indicated strong growth in apple exports and prices and my, indeed our previous strong growth comments were based on best known indicators at the time. Not our fault the actual result was slightly underwhelming. Obviously the effects of the higher $Kiwi a factor here.

For what its worth I still retain over 40% of my original holding and would be happy to revert to a stronger position at the right price and top up like I did last time at around $2.90. I don't think it'll go under $3.00 again so maybe close to $3 is a more realistic reentry but predicting the future is fraught with difficulty and this instance a classic case in point.

Still a good company with good prospects and a pretty good prospect of a takeover at some stage in the future. Like you mate and like most other professional investors we regularly adjust positons based on our level of conviction with each particular investment case as it evolves.

I'm with you Jantar, my highest conviction holdings right at this point are AIR and HLG. I hold some GNE as well but don't have a huge level of conviction over that investment story. A lot of the other stocks I hold I simply consider a hold at this point. Market is pretty much fully priced but no point having much money in a call account is there especially with dividend season almost upon us !

[winner69]

Roger, I take it you still bullish

[Beagle]

Just cruising mate, neither bearish or overly bullish. Can't sell this puppy completely because of my well proven record of attracting Murphy's Law. The second I sell out completely the Chinese will swoop like hungry wolves and the beagle will be left howling with discontent licking his empty food bowl in disgust with himself....so the hound has a bob each way....self insurance :)

[Golfer01]

Just cruising mate, neither bearish or overly bullish. Can't sell this puppy completely because of my well proven record of attracting Murphy's Law. The second I sell out completely the Chinese will swoop like hungry wolves and the beagle will be left howling with discontent licking his empty food bowl in disgust with himself....so the hound has a bob each way....self insurance :)

Is a buy out possible given that there is a substantial amount of Hawkes Bay land that is owned/leased by Mr Apple. Meaning would the Government allow that amount of land going to the Chinese?

[Beagle]

Is a buy out possible given that there is a substantial amount of Hawkes Bay land that is owned/leased by Mr Apple. Meaning would the Government allow that amount of land going to the Chinese?

Good question. Have the overseas investment office moved on to more pragmatic thinking since the fiasco that was that big farm near Taupo ? Thoughts anyone ?

[drcjp]

Is a buy out possible given that there is a substantial amount of Hawkes Bay land that is owned/leased by Mr Apple. Meaning would the Government allow that amount of land going to the Chinese?

To my understanding, orchards are owned by individual growers. CR would be buying the contract for supply that SCL has. So the land is not up for option. I think that's right, but happy to be proven otherwise.

[sb9]

https://nzx.com/companies/SCL/announcements/288469

Most of SCL pundits know this already....

[winner69]

https://nzx.com/companies/SCL/announcements/288469

Most of SCL pundits know this already....

Fantastic news eh sb9

Like Comvita possibly jump 20% odd on this happening - $4.00 has a nice ring to it

Weird eh - they'll welcome these new investors even though te only reason they are 'investing' because Scales has joined an index. Not really 'investing' is it - most probably never showed any inclination to 'invest' in Scales before

Whose complaining - 4 bucks be good

[sb9]

Fantastic news eh sb9

Like Comvita possibly jump 20% odd on this happening - $4.00 has a nice ring to it

Weird eh - they'll welcome these new investors even though te only reason they are 'investing' because Scales has joined an index. Not really 'investing' is it - most probably never showed any inclination to 'invest' in Scales before

Whose complaining - 4 bucks be good

Sure do winner, 4 would round it off nicely for me.

Just from my recent experience while on holiday in sunny GC across ditch, couldn't help notice how bad quality of apples over there in supermarkets where I shopped yet quite pricey around $4.99/kg.

Compare same here with good quality of apples around $3.50/kg mark.

[Raz]

Sure do winner, 4 would round it off nicely for me.

Just from my recent experience while on holiday in sunny GC across ditch, couldn't help notice how bad quality of apples over there in supermarkets where I shopped yet quite pricey around $4.99/kg.

Compare same here with good quality of apples around $3.50/kg mark.

I was there at the weekend, the ones I saw that looked bad were organic..that is the catch with organic... hard to always make beautiful apples when organic....they come warts and all..a look that the consumer is now not use to.