Scales - SCL

[Beagle]

Institutions starting to buy very early in the piece regarding index's entry on Friday 16th. That suggests to me there's a lot of rebalancing to be done. Last time they started buying in volume this early was what happened with CVT which popped 20%...might be a good but somewhat speculative wave to surf ? Not sure about $4 but you never know... $3.25 plus 20% = $3.90 !

[vin]

A couple of days before SCL enters the NZX50, thoughts on SP direction? Been a bit quiet around here!

"Index inclusion will also be positive for existing shareholders and will
bring the company to the attention of a wider group of New Zealand and
offshore investors."

[In4a$]

[QUOTE=vin;636773]A couple of days before SCL enters the NZX50, thoughts on SP direction? Been a bit quiet around here!
With the stocks I have followed over the years for most the price doesn't change much with inclusion, so my estimate is only a small rise if any.

[Fox]

Strong momentum with solid volumes being traded, good lead up to the inclusion. Might see $3.4X soon, but I imagine some holders will take this opportunity to unload some shares whilst the demand is there.

[winner69]

Salt been selling down the last few months

Salt and apples don't seem a natural fit

[sb9]

Salt been selling down the last few months

Salt and apples don't seem a natural fit

May be they're shifting funds to pour into VIL, TWR etc....throwing good money after bad perhaps???

[tim23]

Thought Salt just reduced theit TWR holding?

[winner69]

Nzx50 entry announced 5/9 and share price closed up 10 cents at 333

Last Monday share price 323

Volumes (above average) built during last week (and pre open this morning) taking share price to 336

Was this index buying - probably

Share price drifted down to 330 today on light volumes - index buying all over?

Looks like that's all we going to get from inclusion in the index

Share price to weaken from here - seeing 'strong growth' not happening

[janner]

Looks like that's all we going to get from inclusion in the index

Are you disappointed with the price rise, from the time of your initial investment ??

I am not..

Disc.. Happy Holder..

[winner69]

Are you disappointed with the price rise, from the time of your initial investment ??

I am not..

Disc.. Happy Holder..

No but the rate of return is diminishing as time passes

I've seen that fall from 147% pa in early May to 84% pa today

Share price today lower than it was early way - negative returns over 3 months and a bit - not good

Time is not always your friend - esp when things aren't moving much (or slowly stagnating)

[winner69]

Are you disappointed with the price rise, from the time of your initial investment ??

I am not..

Disc.. Happy Holder..

No, but the rate of return is diminishing as time passes

I've seen that fall from 147% pa in early May to 84% pa today

Share price today lower than it was early way - negative returns over 3 months and a bit - not good

Time is not always your friend - esp when things aren't moving much (or slowly stagnating)

[janner]

Sell enough to retain your profits..

Or take your profits..

Or move on..

You should know that..

[winner69]

Sell enough to retain your profits..

Or take your profits..

Or move on..

You should know that..

Done that - booked the profits on some and an unrealised gain on the others, none of this silly average price stuff......treat each Transaction in it's own right

But Scales may have had it's big run and found its place in life .....as a steady as you go unspectacular stock

But then again is a full takeover still on the cards?

[GTM 3442]

But then again is a full takeover still on the cards?

Given my record of having "rural" companies compulsorily purchased out from under me, I'd say it's almost a certainty.

And supported by the propensity of New Zealand investors to sell out of great long-term investments for a short term profit.

[Jantar]

That was a bit of a shock at the close. Down 10c and almost no buyers. Just the opposite of what we were led to believe would happen by its inclusion into the NZX50.

Fortunately I sold half my holding earlier and my remainder average cost is only 10c per share. :D

[winner69]

That was a bit of a shock at the close. Down 10c and almost no buyers. Just the opposite of what we were led to believe would happen by its inclusion into the NZX50.

Fortunately I sold half my holding earlier and my remainder average cost is only 10c per share. :D

Sell a few more and you cold say they paid you to get them (average less than 0)

Stupid concept this average price

[RupertBear]

Sell a few more and you cold say they paid you to get them (average less than 0)

Stupid concept this average price

As a newbew I have been calculating my average price as well. I would be grateful to hear what a better method is? :confused:

[axe]

That was a bit of a shock at the close. Down 10c and almost no buyers. Just the opposite of what we were led to believe would happen by its inclusion into the NZX50.

Fortunately I sold half my holding earlier and my remainder average cost is only 10c per share. :D

Is the 10 cents per share before or after dividends?

[Jantar]

After. But I have only had a single dividend from Scales.

[Snow Leopard]

That was a bit of a shock at the close. Down 10c and almost no buyers. Just the opposite of what we were led to believe would happen by its inclusion into the NZX50.

Fortunately I sold half my holding earlier and my remainder average cost is only 10c per share. :D

The flip side of that approach is that you also have to say:

"I have bought & sold shares in SCL & received dividends from SCL but so far I have not made or lost even 1 cent".
:ohmy:

Do some 'proper' accounting

Best Wishes
Paper Tiger

[winner69]

As a newbew I have been calculating my average price as well. I would be grateful to hear what a better method is? :confused:

Maybe I should have added a bit - ..stupid this concept of average price, especially when you include profits on selling


Like say I bought 1000 at $1.70 and sold 800 at $3.50 -- average is negative $5.50 (yes, one could say I got paid $5.50 a share for buying those 200 shares and better still they are still worth $3.20 each)

The Paper Tiger suggests do some 'proper' accounting ...hmmm

[winner69]

That was a bit of a shock at the close. Down 10c and almost no buyers. Just the opposite of what we were led to believe would happen by its inclusion into the NZX50.



Not really a shock ... sort of expected

Two advantages of being in the NZX50 is 1) index funds need to purchase stock to mirror the index and 2) some say being in the NZX50 brings Scales to the attention of more analysts/funds which hopefully will increase price

1) has happened. Look at the chart below - well above average volumes pushing price up. Probably funds buying

Hopefully 2) is still to happen but I would hazard a guess that many 'interested' funds/analysts are already in a successful company like Scales

To me even if the price was 200 by the end of it the week it wouldn't be a 'shock' to me

[percy]

Maybe I should have added a bit - ..stupid this concept of average price, especially when you include profits on selling


Like say I bought 1000 at $1.70 and sold 800 at $3.50 -- average is negative $5.50 (yes, one could say I got paid $5.50 a share for buying those 200 shares and better still they are still worth $3.20 each)

The Paper Tiger suggests do some 'proper' accounting ...hmmm

I am very content with my own accounting systems and models.
They are based on ILFS.[I love free stuff].
They work a treat for me.And have done so for a number of years.
Buy 1000 shares at $1,and sell 500 at $2,left [using ILFS] 500 shares [wonderful free stuff].
The other one I love is TPTD [the percy triple dip].Buy 2,000 shares at a $1,and sell 1,000 for $3.
Left with 1,000 shares worth $3,000 and $3,000 to spin the wheel elsewhere.
It really works.
Then for real fun is aiming for TBE [the bulls eye].This takes time, but it is the most fun you can ever have on the market.
Buy 1,000 shares at $1 and wait until you receive $1,000 in dividends a year.!!

[Cricketfan]

I am very content with my own accounting systems and models.
They are based on ILFS.[I love free stuff].
They work a treat for me.And have done so for a number of years.
Buy 1000 shares at $1,and sell 500 at $2,left [using ILFS] 500 shares [wonderful free stuff].
The other one I love is TPTD [the percy triple dip].Buy 2,000 shares at a $1,and sell 1,000 for $3.


Just out of interest, have you worked out what you would've made/lost over the years if you had've just stuck with companies you thought were good rather than selling down and keeping the 'free' shares? And only selling when you thought the company no longer met your investment criteria?

[percy]

Just out of interest, have you worked out what you would've made/lost over the years if you had've just stuck with companies you thought were good rather than selling down and keeping the 'free' shares? And only selling when you thought the company no longer met your investment criteria?

Yes I did it once about 45 years ago.
Forget the figure.
Was very depressing.
Never bothered since.

[Blendy]

I am very content with my own accounting systems and models.
They are based on ILFS.[I love free stuff].
They work a treat for me.And have done so for a number of years.
Buy 1000 shares at $1,and sell 500 at $2,left [using ILFS] 500 shares [wonderful free stuff].
The other one I love is TPTD [the percy triple dip].Buy 2,000 shares at a $1,and sell 1,000 for $3.
Left with 1,000 shares worth $3,000 and $3,000 to spin the wheel elsewhere.
It really works.
Then for real fun is aiming for TBE [the bulls eye].This takes time, but it is the most fun you can ever have on the market.
Buy 1,000 shares at $1 and wait until you receive $1,000 in dividends a year.!!

Ah yes, I very much subscribe to this model, except mine has been dubbed 'Blendy Maths' by those around me who are frustrated by my unique take on logic. Now I know I'm not the only one, and I'll certainly use your time-tested theories in my explanations next time it comes up. Percy, we should write a book ;)

[axe]

Buy 1,000 shares at $1 and wait until you receive $1,000 in dividends a year.!!

Wrong thread Percy. :) This needs to be posted to HBL.

[GTM 3442]

This has been a wonderful exercise to watch and to wonder at.

Thank you all very much. So much inventiveness. Truly impressive.

Now, should any of the <various-nomics> advocates ever find themselves having deep and meaningful conversations with the taxman about cost, price, profit, and capital gain, could you please post a transcript.

That should be even more amusing (to onlookers, at least)

[janner]

[QUOTE=

Stupid concept this average price[/QUOTE]

Why ???.. Could you please explain your thoughts on this ..

[percy]

This has been a wonderful exercise to watch and to wonder at.

Thank you all very much. So much inventiveness. Truly impressive.

Now, should any of the <various-nomics> advocates ever find themselves having deep and meaningful conversations with the taxman about cost, price, profit, and capital gain, could you please post a transcript.

That should be even more amusing (to onlookers, at least)
Your post is enough to give some,but not me reaccurring nightmares.
All shares have been brought with the view of never selling,and to provide dividends for me to live on when I give up working in my retirement.I have always taken dividend reinvestment .when avaliable.
To saveguard against such losses as the 1987 sharemarket crash,9/11,GFC and other set backs, I have only ever sold shares to protect capital, and to be "well positioned" to buy others, that I feel will pay higher dividends at a later stage.
From my tax returns you will note the steady year on year higher declared dividends,which confirms my investment strategy has been consistent and correct.

[winner69]

Why ???.. Could you please explain your thoughts on this ..

See earlier post

I do love it when the market paid me $5.50 for each Scales share ...yeah right

[Jantar]

The flip side of that approach is that you also have to say:

"I have bought & sold shares in SCL & received dividends from SCL but so far I have not made or lost even 1 cent".
:ohmy:

Do some 'proper' accounting

Best Wishes
Paper Tiger
On that basis I can tell the taxman that I don't need to pay any extra tax on my dividends because I have been told that if I did some proper accounting "so far I have not made or lost even 1 cent" Yes, I can see that working a treat. :sleep:

[Joshuatree]

As a newbew I have been calculating my average price as well. I would be grateful to hear what a better method is? :confused:
Rupert an ultimate goal for me is to multi bag a stock. A Double bagger is a stock going up 100% or more. Also called being Free Carried. If you sell a portion to free carry ;GREAT, the stock owes you nothing with divis on top and you've freed up funds to invest elsewhere.. Peter Lynch from "One Up On Wall street" is credited with "multi bag".

Port of Tauranga a great example. Listed at what re 75c?. If so its Paying nearly that in divs this year and s/p $19.83 a 26 Bagger (if listing was @ 75c)

[drcjp]

Gonna get a speeding ticket if not careful.........just saying

[thestg]

Seems the apples have gone bad. Anyone got any ideas why?

[macduffy]

Seems the apples have gone bad. Anyone got any ideas why?

Not "gone bad" but there's only so much juice to squeeze out of an apple - not that SCL is only apples!

But perhaps a bit of reality to the shareprice which has had a stellar rise over the last couple of years.

I hold.

[Jantar]

I bought back in today at these lower prices, and received a few more shares than I sold for the same amount of $$$. That is even after paying the brokerage.

[sb9]

Bit of roller coaster day for apples today...upto 319 for the day before finishing low at 309...seems like the index rebalancing isn't working so far...

[winner69]

Bit of roller coaster day for apples today...upto 319 for the day before finishing low at 309...seems like the index rebalancing isn't working so far...

index rebalancing worked for a few days

It's all those other perceived things like greater market presence, more analyst coverage etc etc that ain't happening ......yet?

I think it will go sub 300 in next week or two

[sb9]

index rebalancing worked for a few days

It's all those other perceived things like greater market presence, more analyst coverage etc etc that ain't happening ......yet?

I think it will go sub 300 in next week or two

Hmmm, might hv to get some more if it gets to that level...

[axe]

http://m.nzherald.co.nz/business/news/article.cfm?c_id=3&objectid=11716945

NZ monthly trade deficit widest in 2 years
Fruit exports, which have been propped up by record sales of kiwifruit, fell 11 per cent to $241m

[sb9]

Back to price range where it belongs more like it, Apples all good!!!

[drcjp]

Twas the night before Christmas, when all through the house
Not a creature was stirring, not even a mouse.
The apples were sold by the cartons with care,
In hopes that CR soon would boost up the share.....

So very, very quiet.

[Ace]

Sometimes quiet is good, looks stable to me. Less volatility than other shares. Remember when the SP was sitting at 1.70 and how quiet it was before it rallied to 2.34? or how quiet it was when the SP was sitting at 2.20ish and rallied up to 2.90 and then all time highs. Took months of nothingness before the rallies. It doesn't mean anything, although just an interesting point to note. Quietly waiting for Xmas to arrive.

[drcjp]

Indeed, all good points Ace. SCL made a market update on 11th Dec last year with a div announcement on the 15th. Very keen to fully stuff my sack this year..........:D

[Lewylewylewy]

Crop shares should have seasonal activity with large quiet spots

[Balance]

Lightened my position in SCL - being cautious.

As Warren Buffett observed - Successful farmers will tell you that in farming, they expect 1 or 2 years to be poor years out of 5. And as prudent farmers, they plan accordingly - pay off debt during the good years (if they have any), build up reserves and stocks and be prepared to ride out the inevitable bad years which will come because of climate, over supply, change in taste etc.

People investing in stocks in farms and farming industries however tend to value the stocks differently - during the good times, they price the stocks like the good times will roll on forever and during the bad times, like the bad times will continue forever.

Therein lies the opportunity.

[Lewylewylewy]

Mostly agree. Wise words. However, remember that scl aren't just farms. They're also cold storage and pet food and juice. Theyre increasing their diversification. But yes, I do agree.

[Beagle]

I struggle to understand lower gross profit margins last year when all the trade data indicated both volume and price increases. Headwinds or words to that effect regarding cold storage weren't well explained.
Currency has moved against them significantly too.
Anyway for what it's worth on the day they entered the NZX50 I quit the lot at $3.36. As balance has noted quite correctly above, one has to expect that there will be years that aren't as fruitful as the last two good ones were. I think the shares are currently about fair value but fair value doesn't cut it for me in a soft market so I would need to see it lower before considering reentry.

[winner69]

Share price back to 300

No worries


The 300 mark has been a pretty solid support level this year

[Beagle]

No mate, your earlier call that they'd go under $3.00 looks like being right.

I must admit it raised my eyebrows when I was in Countdown on the weekend and saw pre-packed bags of 1 Kg of Braeburn apples that appeared to be in very good condition selling for only 75 cents each. Not sure if this microscopic bit of anecdotal market pricing means anything or not but probably generating less than 30 cents per kilo net of GST for the grower by the time high retail margins, GST, transport and cold storage costs are taken into account.

Disc - Don't hold

[vin]

I also quit the lot at $3.30 & $3.12. Would consider reentering @ late $2 if it ever headed south.

[BeeBop]

Absolutely no decent apples here in the Arabian Gulf....just some soft ones from Europe and old Jaz apples from NZ. I was taking it to mean that SCL had long sold out and the Carrefour buyers here couldn't get anything decent! Don't like the share price as it tracks down.

[Balance]

No mate, your earlier call that they'd go under $3.00 looks like being right.

I must admit it raised my eyebrows when I was in Countdown on the weekend and saw pre-packed bags of 1 Kg of Braeburn apples that appeared to be in very good condition selling for only 75 cents each. Not sure if this microscopic bit of anecdotal market pricing means anything or not but probably generating less than 30 cents per kilo net of GST for the grower by the time high retail margins, GST, transport and cold storage costs are taken into account.

Disc - Don't hold

A lot of late season non-export quality apples on sale (as low as 99c/kg) at some of the greengrocers around my area - in big bulk bins.

I think the export crop was sold out a while ago.

[sb9]

A lot of late season non-export quality apples on sale (as low as 99c/kg) at some of the greengrocers around my area - in big bulk bins.

I think the export crop was sold out a while ago.

Think the outlook is still bright, having said that every stock does go through some bad patch along with general market sentiment, which explains some of recent weakness.

Happy to continue to hold and currency tailwind still favours strong export growth...

[Lewylewylewy]

The only things you have to think about with SCL is:

Is the NZD low and is the weather good? Oh, and what are the speculative positions for those things.

As they're crops, always buy on the low because they will be cyclic. These things make them a really simple purchase. Personally, I'd wait until they have a bad year, then buy in big.

[Ace]

The only things you have to think about with SCL is:

Is the NZD low and is the weather good? Oh, and what are the speculative positions for those things.

As they're crops, always buy on the low because they will be cyclic. These things make them a really simple purchase. Personally, I'd wait until they have a bad year, then buy in big.

Does Scales have FX contracts to counteract the effects of FX exchange volatility? Agree that it is cyclic, although can you really time the market? as investors we're good at doing the opposite of buying low and selling high hahaha

[Joshuatree]

Cyclic alright; some years ago growers were being paid to remove their apple trees. Now its boom time again.Some days ago i read that something like 1,000,000 apple trees are being planted and 3 year waiting periods for nursery orders.
New Zealand plants another million apple trees as (http://www.pipfruitnz.co.nz/News_and_Events?cms_584_param_detail=5438)

[Snow Leopard]

Somewhere there was a 'news' item that conditions had been/were top notch for the all important flowering season for the coming years crop and everybody was jolly pleased with the prospects for another good one.

But a long wait between drinks of ciders.

Best Wishes
Paper Tiger

[macduffy]

I hate to think it, but I guess this means that in another few years there will be over-production and a lot of trees being pulled out again.

:mellow:

[Jantar]

I hate to think it, but I guess this means that in another few years there will be over-production and a lot of trees being pulled out again.

:mellow:
Possibly, But don't forget that predicament came about under the ole Apple and Pear Marketing board, who were a single buyer for all export growers. Growers could only supply the types and quantity that the MB wanted, and in turn they would only sell to selected countries. New varieties were not encouraged.

Its a whole different world out there now.

[sb9]

https://nzx.com/companies/SCL/announcements/291701

Good to see CEO of logistics division buying on market, albeit a small parcel.

[winner69]

Spose good news
https://www.nzx.com/companies/SCL/announcements/291978




(Always suspicious when I read things like 'expected increase in Scales’ earnings per share of approximately 4% in FY17' and 'compelling synergies'. Sounds good though)

[winner69]

Hope that Longview announcement will be enough to stop the down trend in the share price that started last August

Immediately EPS accretive - up 6% - that should add 20 cents to the share price - more if rerated because this is good news

[h2so4]

Feels good.
Look at all that extra land. "..in the worlds best location for growing apples"

[Beagle]

Hope that Longview announcement will be enough to stop the down trend in the share price that started last August

Immediately EPS accretive - up 6% - that should add 20 cents to the share price - more if rerated because this is good news

Mate I thought they're talking 4% EPS accretive ? I've been as busy as a one armed paperhanger today so I probably misread something ? Market down 1% today so should theoretically be up 3% net today, and it is. Market pretty efficient eh !

[Snow Leopard]

4% positive this FY from 8 months contribution so there after that is

6% on a full year and there is "further profit uplift through to 2020"

Best Wishes
Paper Tiger

[Beagle]

Thanks. Hound is tired and short of available paws to work his abacus today.

[Snow Leopard]

4% positive this FY from 8 months contribution so there after that is

6% on a full year and there is "further profit uplift through to 2020"

Best Wishes
Paper Tiger


Thanks. Hound is tired and short of available paws to work his abacus today.

You must be tired - and so was/am I:
Scales EOY is December (so 10 months gone and only 2 to go);
If you recall Scales itself makes all most of its profit in the first half of the year.
<New bit as the brain finally starts to kick in>
Hah ah! They are talking about 4% next financial year.
</New bit as the brain finally starts to kick in>

So I was posting somewhat misleading facts - kindly ignore them.

Still a profit increase is a profit increase (that is probably correct).

Best Wishes
Paper Tiger

[winner69]

Been a bit boring of late the action around SCL share price

Hope they start pumping out a bit of good news to get punters excited again

Needs something to get to 4 bucks

[Jantar]

Been a bit boring of late the action around SCL share price

Hope they start pumping out a bit of good news to get punters excited again

Needs something to get to 4 bucks
On current and projected dividends and earnings I suspect that they are now priced about right. I was a bit concerned about the potential hail damage in HB 2 weeks ago, but there has been no negative news, so i'm assuming the damage wasn't as bad as expected.

[Faker]

Anyone noticing the big SP jump? Any idea what's causing this?

[Snow Leopard]

Anyone noticing the big SP jump? Any idea what's causing this?
Some one with "A Fist Full Of Dollars" buying "The Good, The Bad And The Ugly" "For A Few Dollars More"


https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=h1PfrmCGFnk

Best Wishes
Paper Tiger

[janner]

Some one with "A Fist Full Of Dollars" buying "The Good, The Bad And The Ugly" "For A Few Dollars More"


https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=h1PfrmCGFnk

Best Wishes
Paper Tiger

I hope this " Sudden Impact " does not turn out to be " Heartbreak Ridge "...

[tim23]

Must be due to update the market in next week or so and market expecting a good update.

[janner]

Must be due to update the market in next week or so and market expecting a good update.

The Market always .... Expects... :-)))

[winner69]

Been a bit boring of late the action around SCL share price

Hope they start pumping out a bit of good news to get punters excited again

Needs something to get to 4 bucks

They listened?

Not pumping out the good news ....maybe just a few whispers

Good rise today eh

[janner]

They listened?

Not pumping out the good news ....maybe just a few whispers

Good rise today eh

Take this any way you wish winner.. It has two interpretations :-)))

Chinese whispers ???? One good .. One Bull****..

I know nothing ....

[janner]

You are pumping winner..


Disc. Hold

[Snow Leopard]

It seems that despite being very clear in my previous post - I am going to have to hit you lot over the head with it.

A significant amount of money went into buying a number of mainstream stocks at close today.
Thus the rise at close in many stocks such as SCL, SPK, FBU usw.

Best Wishes
Paper Tiger

[James108]

SCL up 3.5%, SPK down and FBU up 0.28%???

[janner]

SCL up 3.5%, SPK down and FBU up 0.28%???

Ummm... ????

[ShouldHaveHeld]

3.50 :eek2:

[janner]

3.50 :eek2:

Was 3.55 Aug 24th..

[winner69]

3.50 :eek2:

Almost a new all time high eh

Hope that this 350 odd mark past resistance can be well and truly broken this time around

[percy]

And yet again Scales produce and outstanding update.
Record volumes,record prices,all divisions trading well, and an increase in dividend.
Well done Scales.

[ShouldHaveHeld]

Almost a new all time high eh

Hope that this 350 odd mark past resistance can be well and truly broken this time around

I do not think there is a need to hope now! :t_up:

[Joshuatree]

Superb ; except Ebitda for 2017 set to be $55-$62 mill, down from $66-$69 mill for 2016??.

[LAC]

Spectacular result!!!! They seem to consistently over-deliver:)
Up up and away.

[Joshuatree]

Underpromising?
"Looking ahead to the 2017 financial year, the directors expect EBITDA to be between $55 million and $62 million. This reflects:
• The inclusion of earnings from Longview.
• Lower budgeted yields and revenue from Mr Apple."

[winner69]

Just worry about this year JT

That should send the share price to 4 bucks this week

[Joshuatree]

I hope so w69.The outlook is a key piece of info though, weird re " the inclusion of earnings from longview "being one reason for lower earnings!.Should be an increase ,surely.

[James108]

It has been clear for quite a while that Scales management view current level of earnings as above long run average. I tend to agree.

[h2so4]

I hope so w69.The outlook is a key piece of info though, weird re " the inclusion of earnings from longview "being one reason for lower earnings!.Should be an increase ,surely.

Earnings is one thing but making money is another.:)

[janner]

It has been clear for quite a while that Scales management view current level of earnings as above long run average. I tend to agree.

Also agree.. Agricultural companies should always be looked at in longer periods due to the weather risks.. IMHO.

[clip]

What's the dividend/record date if anyone doesn't mind helping out someone lazy/short of time? :D

[777]

What's the dividend/record date if anyone doesn't mind helping out someone lazy/short of time? :D

For the future. Updates every night

https://www.nzx.com/markets/NZSX

[clip]

Thanks, i've had a look at the scales page on there which didn't list the upcoming dividends, nor does upcoming dividends on the main page. Found this in the SCL report - I can't find/don't understand what the record date is based on the report however, can you clarify?

An interim ordinary dividend of 8 cents per share has been declared and will be paid in January 2017. This represents a 23% increase on the 2015 interim ordinary dividend of 6.5 cents per share.
"• Interim 2016 ordinary dividend of 8 cents per share declared and to be paid on 18 January 2017."

"“The 2016 final dividend amount will be declared in May 2017 and paid in July 2017 subject, as always, to directors’ approval at the time.” Mr Mayson says."
IF it's declared in May, does that mean the record date is some time in May or when it is declared? e.g. is the declaration date the record date?

[Jantar]

This historical data is available from the NZX page
Historical Dividends

Ex Dividend
Period
Amount
Supp.
Imputation
Payable
Currency


28/06/2016
Final
6.500c
1.147c
2.528c
08/07/2016
NZD


07/01/2016
Special
4.000c
0.706c
1.556c
20/01/2016
NZD


07/01/2016
Interim
6.500c
1.147c
2.528c
20/01/2016
NZD


29/06/2015
Final
7.000c
1.235c
2.722c
10/07/2015
NZD


05/12/2014
Interim
3.000c
0.529c
1.167c
19/12/2014
NZD

[sb9]

I'm out.. had been great run with this since late 2014 when I picked up around 1.41 or so....GLTA.

[Joshuatree]

Whats your reason sb9?. Im reviewing whether to do the same.They've had a great run with 2 or more near perfect growing seasons to boot.Newer varieties of apples seem a winner too.Odds that some weather, natural event may stuff it up somewhat are increasing.Management is excellent and the ducks have all been in row.Can/ Will Chinese investor increase holdings, make a takeover etc, keeping some upward/stable tension on s/p? Think now that ,they do tend to under promise (and so far over deliver) so scene set for something to go wrong?

[sb9]

Whats your reason sb9?. Im reviewing whether to do the same.They've had a great run with 2 or more near perfect growing seasons to boot.Newer varieties of apples seem a winner too.Odds that some weather, natural event may stuff it up somewhat are increasing.Management is excellent and the ducks have all been in row.Can/ Will Chinese investor increase holdings, make a takeover etc, keeping some upward/stable tension on s/p? Think now that ,they do tend to under promise (and so far over deliver) so scene set for something to go wrong?

No particular reason JT, am sure the sp can get close to $4 if certain things fall in place like more Chinese interest and good crop over next season.

Sometimes I tend to hang onto to a stock too long without realising actual gains and in this case my cut off date was always this results date. I personally like this company and been one of my star performers in my portfolio. And as they say, "leave some meat for next person in line"....

[h2so4]

The company’s balance sheet continues to be strong enabling us to take advantage of organic and inorganic growth opportunities. At the moment, we’re nding the best returns from investing in our own businesses. We expect to invest $16.7 million in capital expenditure during 2016, of which approximately $10 million are considered growth projects. This follows on from expenditure of $15.8 million in 2015 of which $11.3 million was for growth projects. These growth initiatives underpin expectations for improvements in earnings beyond the current nancial year.

[Beagle]

Underpromising?
"Looking ahead to the 2017 financial year, the directors expect EBITDA to be between $55 million and $62 million. This reflects:
• The inclusion of earnings from Longview.
• Lower budgeted yields and revenue from Mr Apple."

Underscores the cyclical nature of the horticultural industry in my opinion. Looks like they got all their ducks in a row this year but expectations are, (notwithstanding they have historically under promised and over delivered) that pricing may work against them next year.


I'm out.. had been great run with this since late 2014 when I picked up around 1.41 or so....GLTA.

Congrats, a stellar run.

[percy]

I sold out today and added to my HLG and TNR holdings.
Still think SCL is an extremely well run business,but as Roger points out, "they got all their ducks in a row this year",so eps growth full years' 2016/17 and 2017/18 may be negative.

[h2so4]

I sold out today and added to my HLG and TNR holdings.
Still think SCL is an extremely well run business,but as Roger points out, "they got all their ducks in a row this year",so eps growth full years' 2016/17 and 2017/18 may be negative.

You what?
No wonder the price went down.:)

[Beagle]

I sold out today and added to my HLG and TNR holdings.
Still think SCL is an extremely well run business,but as Roger points out, "they got all their ducks in a row this year",so eps growth full years' 2016/17 and 2017/18 may be negative.

Totally agree its extremely well run. Article on NBR behind the paywall (which mod's frown on cutting and pasting so I won't) but essentially what they were alluding too in terms of the lower FY17 forecast is that SCL uses a multi year average forecast yield when setting their forecast and the recent acquisition actually hindered the official FY17 forecast using their forecasting model.

They went on to say that they prefer to under promise and over deliver, which these days to be honest is an old fashioned forecasting methodology that I find most attractive and one many other companies would do well to consider adopting.

I sold a while back at circa $3.30 on the basis that any way you slice and dice it this is still a cyclical industry and prone to significant agricultural risks in addition to the normal cyclical commodity factors.

[Joshuatree]

Last December
Weather cleared now. Have just checked my back yard peach tree. The 2 green peaches are still on the tree (there were only 2 to begin with).

Looking like another great fruit set for apples; anyone got any info to verify?. Thought we could get a starter by how many peaches you have this year Noodles;)

[Joshuatree]

Scales announces acquisition of Longview New Ze... (https://www.nzx.com/companies/SCL/announcements/291978) It is an exceptional operation Scales has bought and to under promise here is an almost surety of over delivering imo; weather events not forthcoming of course.

Listenduration 1′ :44″ (http://www.radionz.co.nz/national/programmes/businessnews/audio/201826626/scales-says-bumper-crop-lifts-fy-net-profit)

Another price tension is the chinese re 15% holding; I'm thinking chances are very good they will want to increase their holding in this superb top quality premium apple co

[winner69]

So some of you have been selling out /down - and Harbour /FNZC been paying them

We usually get excited when isto's increase their holdings - but his time?

[RupertBear]

So some of you have been selling out /down - and Harbour /FNZC been paying them

We usually get excited when isto's increase their holdings - but his time?

There was a time when Harbour or Milford increasing their holdings excited me and I was tempted to buy a few more....but those were the Wynyard days....never again :(

[Beagle]

Another price tension is the chinese re 15% holding; I'm thinking chances are very good...
They'd need overseas investment office approval to go over 20%. Wonder how they would get on with that political hot potato ?

There was a time when Harbour or Milford increasing their holdings excited me and I was tempted to buy a few more....but those were the Wynyard days....never again :(
Some big names have taken a very serious hit on their Orion healthcare shares too. Going into that float with no forecast...must have a desperate shortage of places to invest those hard earned Kiwisaver funds that's one thing for sure !

[Lewylewylewy]

Totally agree its extremely well run. Article on NBR behind the paywall (which mod's frown on cutting and pasting so I won't) but essentially what they were alluding too in terms of the lower FY17 forecast is that SCL uses a multi year average forecast yield when setting their forecast and the recent acquisition actually hindered the official FY17 forecast using their forecasting model.

They went on to say that they prefer to under promise and over deliver, which these days to be honest is an old fashioned forecasting methodology that I find most attractive and one many other companies would do well to consider adopting.

I sold a while back at circa $3.30 on the basis that any way you slice and dice it this is still a cyclical industry and prone to significant agricultural risks in addition to the normal cyclical commodity factors.

Completely agree, farming is cyclical. However, I don't think they're 100% normal in this. I would say that they are cyclical with a general, averaging upward trend, because of the way they're investing in diversity and growth. Not sure if that would change the way you trade them or not. Personally, I'm keeping free shares in this one and trading the rest as cyclical. Obviously many would (sensibly) argue to just trade as cyclical, but I like the idea of gradually accumulating coz I get a warm fuzzy feeling in my belly. Hmmm, then again, that might be just too much apple crumble.

[Beagle]

Completely agree, farming is cyclical. However, I don't think they're 100% normal in this. I would say that they are cyclical with a general, averaging upward trend, because of the way they're investing in diversity and growth. Not sure if that would change the way you trade them or not. Personally, I'm keeping free shares in this one and trading the rest as cyclical. Obviously many would (sensibly) argue to just trade as cyclical, but I like the idea of gradually accumulating coz I get a warm fuzzy feeling in my belly. Hmmm, then again, that might be just too much apple crumble.

Yeap...I'd go along with that. Certainly there's solid underlying growth in their pet food and liquid storage divisions and growth in their acreage and in terms of the amount in premium varieties so I think your point is well made. I'm a little surprised that Percy didn't follow your free approach, its most unlike him to make a clean exit :D
TBH I was a little surprised they headed up to ~ $3.50 at one stage, (then again I am more than a little surprised with the resilience of the market overall in the face of global uncertainties not the least of which is related to Trump's presidency and potential free trade co0nsiderations and the cancellation of the TPPA).

I have kept SCL on my watch list and may look for a cheaper entry point because apple crumble is also my favourite desert and quite apart from that I'm a huge believer in the old jingle an apple a day keeps the doctor away. The PE seems expensive for an agricultural company but then there's the very conservative nature of their forecasting to consider as well as the underlying growth you've alluded too. Hmmm..maybe I should have kept my free ones.

[percy]

They were my "free" ones, after selling a lot of my holding at $3.32 on 25th August.
So why sell and buy TNR and HLG.?
Well SCL,HLG and TNR are all well managed companies.
Outlook.Reserve Governor Wheeler has said the outlook for NZ is excellent.I take this to mean the NZ$ will remain high, and unemployment will stay low.High NZ$ will work against SCL,while it is positive for both HLG and TNR.Low unemployment will also work in HLG and TNR's favour.
Yesterday's prices.HLG $2.97,SCL $3.38 and TNR $3,55.
So now we have some fun picking when each of them will reach 30 to 35 cents eps..!!!!!!
My pick is HLG will get there in 2017,TNR in 2018,while SCL will not get there until either 2019 or 2020.

[Beagle]

Fair enough Percy. BTW you're preaching to the converted. I also hold HLG and some TNR and am looking forward to the upgraded guidance by HLG on Tuesday next week at their ASM.

FWIW I think on reflection that a PE of about 14 is right for this one. My standard no growth argi PE of 10 needs to be modified for some underlying growth. SCL about fair value I reckon at $3.35 per opening bid, (which isn't my bid) this morning.

PS no waiting required for AIR to reach 30-35 cents eps, they'll do that this year and the SP is only $2.17 :D

[Beagle]

Looks like some of us on here weren't the only ones somewhat underwhelmed by FY17's forecast. Maybe they're simply too conservative with their forecasting ?
Disc - I am definitely interested in reacquiring some at very close to $3.

[Jantar]

....
Disc - I am definitely interested in reacquiring some at very close to $3.
At the rate the SP is dropping that could be next week. :p

[Beagle]

At the rate the SP is dropping that could be next week. :p

No hurry to buy that's for sure. Certainly the market has said its underwhelmed by their FY17 forecast. Granted they have their own average forecasting model and a given that its a real breath of fresh air to have a company under promise and over deliver but their approach doesn't seem to be resonating well with the market. Now trading right on the 100 day moving average and appears to be headed lower.

[Balance]

No hurry to buy that's for sure. Certainly the market has said its underwhelmed by their FY17 forecast. Granted they have their own average forecasting model and a given that its a real breath of fresh air to have a company under promise and over deliver but their approach doesn't seem to be resonating well with the market. Now trading right on the 100 day moving average and appears to be headed lower.

The effects of under promising and over delivering do wear off after a while as well - but still the better way than the companies which consistently over promise and under deliver. Rakon comes to mind.

SCL is one great company and I certainly look forward to the day when its earnings profile is sustainable maintainable earnings not so dependent upon the factors which impact agricultural stocks.

[drcjp]

Bugger the turkey, Pork'n'Apple for Xmas
==========================

Got some Dazzle to go wth their razzle. 20 years in the making but nice to see 100K plants doing their thing already....https://nzx.com/companies/SCL/announcements/294619

[Joshuatree]

Maybe repeating myself(its worth it) but heard 1 million apple trees being planted!!.Hope we are not setting ourselves up for another boom bust cycle in the medium future where trees get pulled out ; again. Anyways happy to ride the pip fruit conveyer grader for now.

[percy]

I may need to rework my 2028 eps forecast.?!

[janner]

I may need to rework my 2028 eps forecast.?!

There is a possibility that we will be the fertilizer for them by then Percy..

[percy]

There is a possibility that we will be the fertilizer for them by then Percy..

My thinking exactly.!!!...lol.

[Joshuatree]

I personally like the idea of being buried beneath a big red apple tree in an orchard as a carbon sink and being recycled in glossy healthy fruit and tree. Do away with Graveyards Just be a bummer when / if the bust comes. and the trees are all dug out again.Who knows what the tree roots could be wrapped around? I guess my fave hallenstein panel teeshirts wouldn't endure.:t_up:

[Lewylewylewy]

I personally like the idea of being buried beneath a big red apple tree in an orchard as a carbon sink and being recycled in glossy healthy fruit and tree. Do away with Graveyards Just be a bummer when / if the bust comes. and the trees are all dug out again.Who knows what the tree roots could be wrapped around? I guess my fave hallenstein panel teeshirts wouldn't endure.:t_up:

Reminds me of a conversation with my friend as a child:

Friend: We buried my granddad underneath his favourite apple tree last year and it's making the most delicious apples. I think it's because he's looking after it as he always used to.
Me: You're eating your dead granddad!
Friend: **Pukes**

[drcjp]

Anyone know why SCL closed last night at 3.47 and then opens today at 3.39, with no sales and its not ex-divvie until tomorrow?
Is it new shares or something? What did I miss?

[macduffy]

It' a thin, holiday mode market (and doesn't open officially until 10 am.)

[Jantar]

It is ex divi today. I placed a very cheeky sell order late yesterday at a high price, but it was declined after market closure due to going Ex when the market opened.

[drcjp]

Um..it says here record date is tomorrow, the 6th.https://www.nzx.com/files/attachments/249908.pdf

[Jantar]

Um..it says here record date is tomorrow, the 6th.https://www.nzx.com/files/attachments/249908.pdf
It says here that it is today
https://www.nzx.com/markets/NZSX/securities/SCL/dividends

[drcjp]

It says here that it is today
https://www.nzx.com/markets/NZSX/securities/SCL/dividends

LOL. That explains it. Some munter in the NZX either can't read or has decided that the company filed forms don't actually mean what they say it means.

[Jantar]

Does that mean that anyone buying today effectively gets the ex divi price and still gets the divi as well?

[drcjp]

Does that mean that anyone buying today effectively gets the ex divi price and still gets the divi as well?
Yep, thats why I asked the q in the first place. Big stuff up by the NZX - opens a whole can of worms.

[777]

LOL. That explains it. Some munter in the NZX either can't read or has decided that the company filed forms don't actually mean what they say it means.

+2. Ex date is always prior to record date. Every share on the market is the same. That munter you refer to is correct. It surprises me the lack of knowledge of some posters.

If you bought yesterday then your shares will be registered by tomorrow (+2). So you will get the dividend. Sold yesterday then you won't.

Buy today and you won't and sell today you will.

It is so simple. Sharemarket 101.

[winner69]

+2. Ex date is always prior to record date. Every share on the market is the same. That munter you refer to is correct. It surprises me the lack of knowledge of some posters.

If you bought yesterday then your shares will be registered by tomorrow (+2). So you will get the dividend. Sold yesterday then you won't.

Buy today and you won't and see today you will.

It is so simple. Sharemarket 101.

Sorted - well done 777

Everybody happy now?

[tim23]

No you either buy them 4 January and get the 8c dividend or buy 5 January at the xd price so proably 8c cheaper.

[macduffy]

No you either buy them 4 January and get the 8c dividend or buy 5 January at the xd price so proably 8c cheaper.

Theoretically that's so, everything else being equal. But it hardly ever is, as witnss the range of prices that SCL traded at today.

[tim23]

Quite correct my point really being you either buy cd or xd as it looked like a post above thought they might get a dollar each way!

[nextbigthing]

Looks like the bot is buying. Fine by me.

[winner69]

Looks like the bot is buying. Fine by me.

Whats the word on the street nextbigthing

[LAC]

Wow that's quite a strong SP after going ex div

[nextbigthing]

Whats the word on the street nextbigthing

$4 by Christmas they're saying. The Grinch must be running Christmas this year. It's $4.50 at least.

[mshierlaw]

$4 by Christmas they're saying. The Grinch must be running Christmas this year. It's $4.50 at least.

Finally broke $3.50 on the forth attempt but on low volumes. Still a long time till grinch season.

[ShouldHaveHeld]

http://www.newshub.co.nz/home/new-zealand/2017/01/apple-addicted-kiwis-in-withdrawal-over-shortage.html

"
(http://www.newshub.co.nz/home/new-zealand/2017/01/apple-addicted-kiwis-in-withdrawal-over-shortage.html)Apple-addicted Kiwis in withdrawal over shortage"

[sb9]

http://www.newshub.co.nz/home/new-zealand/2017/01/apple-addicted-kiwis-in-withdrawal-over-shortage.html

"
(http://www.newshub.co.nz/home/new-zealand/2017/01/apple-addicted-kiwis-in-withdrawal-over-shortage.html)Apple-addicted Kiwis in withdrawal over shortage"



So true, have noticed shortage/non-availability of apples in both Countdown and Newworld...bit of a bummer. Might have to import them from across the ditch and they're not known for their quality though...

[dodgy]

So true, have noticed shortage/non-availability of apples in both Countdown and Newworld...bit of a bummer. Might have to import them from across the ditch and they're not known for their quality though...

Or,

maybe from China, one of, if not he biggest, supplier of apples in the world - particularly Fuji as I understand it.

[Jay]

So true, have noticed shortage/non-availability of apples in both Countdown and Newworld...bit of a bummer. ...

And Pak N Save - both times we have been there in the last week & 1/2- managed to get some from a Fruit World at about a $1 or so more for a 1.5% kg bag
Granny Smiths the only ones available both times

[Onion]

And Pak N Save - both times we have been there in the last week & 1/2- managed to get some from a Fruit World at about a $1 or so more for a 1.5% kg bag
Granny Smiths the only ones available both times

Why be bothered with apples that have been stored for ages when there are fresh NZ stone fruits available! Cheeries, peaches, nectarines, apricots -- enjoy them while they are available.

Apples will be back when they start harvesting the new crop -- and nicer than the ones you might find at present.

http://www.nzfreshfruits.com/apples.html

[LAC]

Scales export all the good stuff and the NZ$ is pretty high so the logical assumption would be that things might not be as great as last year. But Scales have always stunned me with their performance, time will tell

[Lewylewylewy]

Scales export all the good stuff and the NZ$ is pretty high so the logical assumption would be that things might not be as great as last year. But Scales have always stunned me with their performance, time will tell

I can't remember where the majority of SCLs exports go - Does anyone recall from memory what % goes to the USA? Trump will likely put an import tax on goods (I really hope that the NZ govt is over there emphasising/ensuring our position as an important food provider to the USA. Americans aren't going to like it if Trump accidentally puts food prices up and creates food scarcity [so hard to avoid fat jokes here, but that would be really bad for Americans health as they would resort to eating more corn - something they grow lots of for sugar! Ironically, I think a reduction in food imports to America would make Americans fatter]).

[ShouldHaveHeld]

I can't remember where the majority of SCLs exports go - Does anyone recall from memory what % goes to the USA? Trump will likely put an import tax on goods (I really hope that the NZ govt is over there emphasising/ensuring our position as an important food provider to the USA. Americans aren't going to like it if Trump accidentally puts food prices up and creates food scarcity [so hard to avoid fat jokes here, but that would be really bad for Americans health as they would resort to eating more corn - something they grow lots of for sugar! Ironically, I think a reduction in food imports to America would make Americans fatter]).

the export %
8614

[BeeBop]

the export %
8614

We are still suffering from a lack of decent apples...managed to get some Pacific Rose that are into not too bad condition in Carrefour today BUT the price is 2x what it was last year, paid equivalent of around NZD$4 per kg which is quite expensive for apples....bananas are around $1.50 per kilo and seasonal AUSSIE (hiss) apricots are around $12 per kilo. WE NEED MORE APPLES!!! So the Middle East may still have room to grow their apple demand.

[Beagle]

Can't find any red apples anywhere near where I live. None of the supermarkets of even the fruit and vege shops have them :huh:
SCL looks very fully priced to me but I think the 5 year averaging methodology they use for forecasting is confusing retail investors.
Disc: Don't hold but would like to see them come back a bit and I'd like to have a bite.

[kerryo]

I bought some USA apples from Pack n Save about 2 weeks ago, best apples I've ever eaten. :)

8615

[percy]

Google New Zealand Farmers Weekly.
then click onto "Apple grower stalks improved earnings".
Another excellent article by Alan Williams,which also covers the reasons for their "modest" 5 year averaging methodology.
As present research shows no eps growth over the next couple or three years, I am not currently a SCL shareholder.First sign of eps growth,and I will be back.

[LAC]

Can't find any red apples anywhere near where I live. None of the supermarkets of even the fruit and vege shops have them :huh:
SCL looks very fully priced to me but I think the 5 year averaging methodology they use for forecasting is confusing retail investors.
Disc: Don't hold but would like to see them come back a bit and I'd like to have a bite.

Yup sold out last week as well.

[dodgy]

I bought some USA apples from Pack n Save about 2 weeks ago, best apples I've ever eaten. :)

8615

Hi
Funny that when we live in the States the Kiwi apples taste best. The only downside with the US fruit is most is wax coated to maintain freshness - I'm not so sure about NZ local or export supplies. Maybe some one can inform us. Happy munching!
-d

[Hectorplains]

We are still suffering from a lack of decent apples...managed to get some Pacific Rose that are into not too bad condition in Carrefour today BUT the price is 2x what it was last year, paid equivalent of around NZD$4 per kg which is quite expensive for apples....bananas are around $1.50 per kilo and seasonal AUSSIE (hiss) apricots are around $12 per kilo. WE NEED MORE APPLES!!! So the Middle East may still have room to grow their apple demand.

It's just a late season. My trees are holding a bumper crop but they're weeks behind where they'd usually be. You get that with such variable summer weather. Once picking does start you'll find heavily discounted fruit flooding the stores. I assume none of this will have much impact on Scales as they'll have export orders locked in.

[Sideshow Bob]

With Scales and their exports it will be the seasonality compared to other producers/markets. March/April presumably not much coming out of Northern Hemisphere producers. Then it comes down to Chile?, Australia?, New Zealand etc.

My neighbours tree has heaps on it - but just bit small at the moment. Haven't seen them for a while so might have to go picking once they grow/ripen up! :p

[percy]

I guess today's shocker announcement from CVT, helps us understand while Andy Borland sets modest projections.

[macduffy]

I guess today's shocker announcement from CVT, helps us understand while Andy Borland sets modest projections.

Indeed, percy. A timely reminder of the risks around primary industry investments in general and why I'm reluctant, although tempted from time to time, to add to my modest SCL holding.

[sb9]

Indeed, percy. A timely reminder of the risks around primary industry investments in general and why I'm reluctant, although tempted from time to time, to add to my modest SCL holding.

Looks like SCL is catching CVT cold today....

[janner]

But on the fear is the old adage .


Disc hold. DYOR

[IAK]

Looking forward to Scale's annual result on 28 Feb. "Shaping up to be another record year for the New Zealand apple crop in terms of volume, and indications are that quality will also be high". http://nzh.tw/11802088

[Yoda]

Seems to me the bands are tight and a 5 c rise today, maybe a jump coming, not sure whether to buy more now or wait until after the results, but i would have to sell something ....... Its about time it broke upwards . Its been sitting for a while now not breaking much above 3.50 But it is above all the MAs

[Pricey]

I've been expecting/hoping it to dip back down to $3.20s so I could buy more. Not happening.

[Lewylewylewy]

Me too. It will tumble on a single bad years weather or fruit infection. Just gotta wait it out 😑

[tim23]

Trouble is may never get back to $3.20 its like maybe wishing you had bought say Ebos under $10

[Lewylewylewy]

Kind of agree, but EBO isn't a cyclical business like the farming industry.

[Yoda]

http://www.stuff.co.nz/business/89524026/record-apple-season-sets-the-stage-for-billion-dollar-export-growth

[Joshuatree]

Thanks Yoda
Thats 33% less hectares beating the last record set in 2004!!! WOW; and the 3rd bumper season in a row! better wait until the crop is off i guess.




Pipfruit New Zealand chief executive Allan Pollard said a crop of 584,000 tonnes of apples is forecast, which will break the previous record of 560,000 tonnes in 2004.

In 2004 the harvest came from 13,500 hectares of orchards, while this season's harvest would come from 9500 hectares.

[Balance]

Thanks Yoda
Thats 33% less hectares beating the last record set in 2004!!! WOW; and the 3rd bumper season in a row! better wait until the crop is off i guess.




Pipfruit New Zealand chief executive Allan Pollard said a crop of 584,000 tonnes of apples is forecast, which will break the previous record of 560,000 tonnes in 2004.

In 2004 the harvest came from 13,500 hectares of orchards, while this season's harvest would come from 9500 hectares.

Bigger crop so will overall revenues (and hence, profits) increase will depend upon prices obtained in export markets.

So far, local market apple prices are still very high so augers well but export markets do dance to a different tune.

[drcjp]

bit of action this morning

[percy]

Yes a lot of action.
A quick look at the chart and I noted the sp had to break through the $3.50 barrier,which it has now done so on light volume [$3.56].
The big trades were done at $3.44.
We live in interesting times?

[Beagle]

Must admit although I did well out of Scales last year I was quite perplexed and somewhat underwhelmed by their profit result last year.

As was the case last year, emerging evidence this year also shows encouraging early indications from industry sources indicating it is going to be a great crop and export prices last year were going to robust, who knows this year ?...but it simply didn't translate on to the bottom line in 2016 and the gross margin disappointed me. It will be interesting to follow how the crop and export pricing flows through to the bottom line this year, (for me from the sidelines). The currency won't help this year.

[LAC]

I though the same, forecast wasn't looking too flashy so sold out in favor of SUM (diff sector but was looking good value) hoping I didn't make a mistake. I also took into account the strong dollar at the time.

[percy]

It looks as though it is Game On.!
At 5.19pm 1,600,000 shares were traded off market at $3.65, taking the day's turnover of SCL to over $11mil.?
China Resources?

[Joshuatree]

Another price tension is the chinese re 15% holding; I'm thinking chances are very good they will want to increase their holding in this superb top quality premium apple co

can go to 20%(had 15%) without overseas commission approval

[winner69]

Awesomely stunning
https://www.nzx.com/files/attachments/253965.pdf

That should trigger a burst of enthusiasm and push share price up to $4 and beyond

[LAC]

Great result but I think the FY2017 forecast of 55-62mill might slow that push to $4.

[winner69]

Great result but I think the FY2017 forecast of 55-62mill might slow that push to $4.

But we all know that forecast is rubbish

Good signs that this seasons crop have very good brix

[percy]

Interesting to note eps increased 5% from 25.7cps to 27cps.
According to ANZ Securities the PE is 14.56.

[Joshuatree]

Going to give my daily apple an extra polish before i eat it and burn some incense and make an offering to the weather Gods for the apple orchards to be protected and nourished and to flourish for the rest of this season and on and on..

" Own grown apple volumes of 3.55 million TCEs, achieving a target we had set for 2020 four
years ahead of schedule. "


Outlook
Looking ahead, Mr Mayson says: “Apple picking for the FY2017 crop has recently begun. Earlyindications are positive with very good brix (sweetness), colour, and fruit size characteristics. This,coupled with generally supportive factors for other Scales’ entities allows us to reaffirm guidanceprovided late last year for FY2017 EBITDA of between $55 million and $62 million.”

[winner69]

Interesting to note eps increased 5% from 25.7cps to 27cps.
According to ANZ Securities the PE is 14.56.


And if you believe their forecasts forward looking EPS growth will be negative and PE will be higher than current 14.56

Hmm

[percy]

And if you believe their forecasts forward looking EPS growth will be negative and PE will be higher than current 14.56

Hmm

Hmm....................
My thoughts exactly.

[Well Endowed]

Looks good to me :t_up:

“We are also extremely pleased to have the strategic support of China Resources who, through their extensive networks, are well positioned to assist us with our growth through China and the rest ofAsia. To further assist sales into this region, we have been making significant investments in marketing resource, presence and collateral."

[Ace]

I'm going to have to correct you there, it's now actually:


Looks good to me :t_up:

“We are also extremely pleased to have the strategic support of China Resources who, through their extensive networks, are well endowed to assist us with our growth through China and the rest ofAsia. To further assist sales into this region, we have been making significant investments in marketing resource, presence and collateral."

[drcjp]

Over 3M shares in offies on the last week. Be interesting to see SSH notice or not.
Somebody likes what their seeing.

[Lewylewylewy]

I rate SCL as a buy at this price, personally.

[nextbigthing]

Hey Winner,

SCL looking pretty good.

What was the price by Christmas?

NBT

[Raz]

Personally bought prior..see less up side buying in now...

[winner69]

Hey Winner,

SCL looking pretty good.

What was the price by Christmas?

NBT

Word on street is $4 plus if there is a takeover offer

Otherwise around $3

What you heard

[nextbigthing]

Word on street is $4 plus (snip)

$4 plus?!

Quite happy to collect the healthy dividend in the mean time while this eventuates.

[macduffy]

Word on street is $4 plus if there is a takeover offer

Otherwise around $3

What you heard

This is from the cab drivers and shoeshine boys, eh, winner?

;)

[winner69]

This is from the cab drivers and shoeshine boys, eh, winner?

;)

No no macduffy - from the 'smart' ones

Cab drivers are talking 5 bucks

But they only interested in Snapchat at the moment - amazing story that is eh - punters piling billions into something and not even getting voting rights. Snapchat market cap almost half of the market cap of the NZX ha ha

[Lewylewylewy]

I think < $3.50 is good for SCL whether theres a takeover or not.

[Hectorplains]

I think < $3.50 is good for SCL whether theres a takeover or not.

Looks fully priced. I'd go a 'hold'. Forward PE is 13.5. Agricultural stock generally sit at 10. Although these guys continue to outperform, this is a cyclical industry and not one without risks.

[percy]

Looks fully priced. I'd go a 'hold'. Forward PE is 13.5. Agricultural stock generally sit at 10. Although these guys continue to outperform, this is a cyclical industry and not one without risks.

Exactly how I see them too.Plus currency is again working against them.
I do not hold.
Yet what is interesting has been the volume of shares being traded, and just how well the share price has held up.

[Beagle]

Clear dichotomy of thought regarding Scales at yesterday's Auckland ST meeting. Some thought, (myself included), that the current price is very fulsome. Doing the round of the table I asked each person to put their one best investment idea out there for the year ahead and I must admit I was very surprised SCL got two picks...people seemed very surprised I didn't pick AIR again LOL (once bitten twice shy).
For what its worth SUM is my pick (and was also the pick of two other very astute gentlemen), and ALF was Vaygor1's pick, sorry can't remember the others the apple cider drinks were too good :)
Okay its mainly an agri company which I stick to my time honored PE of 10 but has underlying growth from pet food, cold and liquid storage so maybe at a pinch a forward PE of 12-12.5 but that's it as far as I am prepared to go. May have it wrong and could be worth more as a strategic investment for the Chinese if they can get Overseas investment office approval for a takeover, which I would have thought would be pretty hard...as usual time will tell.

[macduffy]

SCL looks fully priced to me - and if I had a better idea for an alternative I'd sell my small stake.

[nextbigthing]

Cab drivers are talking 5 bucks


I have the feeling this is going to be one of those stocks like EBO, HBL, AIA, RDB etc. Every time you research it, it will always seem expensive and 'fully priced', so you hold off. A few months later you'll look back hoping things will right themselves. But in the mean time it will have gone up another 5-10%. Process repeats for years and the stock is just always 'full priced'. You miss out on a ten bagger and dividends along the way. Such is a nature of such a good quality stock, especially one that tends to under-promise and over-deliver.

Then eventually, after a few years, you'll realise you've missed the boat, and spend countless hours analysing a stock you don't own and posting on the thread all the reasons why the company is a bad investment. See HBL thread.

Chart is looking pretty good too.

Maybe those cabbies aren't so silly Winner.

Disc in the interests of fairness; Own and looking at offloading some, purely to rebalance the portfolio.

[Baa_Baa]

I have the feeling this is going to be one of those stocks like EBO, HBL, AIA, RDB etc. Every time you research it, it will always seem expensive and 'fully priced', so you hold off. A few months later you'll look back hoping things will right themselves. But in the mean time it will have gone up another 5-10%. Process repeats for years and the stock is just always 'full priced'. You miss out on a ten bagger and dividends along the way. Such is a nature of such a good quality stock, especially one that tends to under-promise and over-deliver.

Then eventually, after a few years, you'll realise you've missed the boat, and spend countless hours analysing a stock you don't own and posting on the thread all the reasons why the company is a bad investment. See HBL thread.

Chart is looking pretty good too.

Maybe those cabbies aren't so silly Winner.

Disc in the interests of fairness; Own and looking at offloading some, purely to rebalance the portfolio.

Fair enough summary for quite a few shares on nzx, trouble is the inevitable rout for the late comers, or the don't know when to get outers. Then comes the half decade of capital loss despair. There's plenty of 'setups' on nzx ready for disappointment except for the nimble who know how to move very quickly mitigating losses. Trouble
Is, even the nimble can become wedded to their multi year darlings and reluctant to make the move when they should. Imo fwiw it's not the nz market / fundamentals drIving performance in recent times, so shocks will be external and profound. In the meantime it's all peaches and cream.

[h2so4]

Fair enough summary for quite a few shares on nzx, trouble is the inevitable rout for the late comers, or the don't know when to get outers. Then comes the half decade of capital loss despair. There's plenty of 'setups' on nzx ready for disappointment except for the nimble who know how to move very quickly mitigating losses. Trouble
Is, even the nimble can become wedded to their multi year darlings and reluctant to make the move when they should. Imo fwiw it's not the nz market / fundamentals drIving performance in recent times, so shocks will be external and profound. In the meantime it's all peaches and cream.
https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=Azcy9_F0DCE

[Snow Leopard]

Fair enough summary for quite a few shares on nzx, trouble is the inevitable rout for the late comers, or the don't know when to get outers. Then comes the half decade of capital loss despair. There's plenty of 'setups' on nzx ready for disappointment except for the nimble who know how to move very quickly mitigating losses. Trouble
Is, even the nimble can become wedded to their multi year darlings and reluctant to make the move when they should. Imo fwiw it's not the nz market / fundamentals drIving performance in recent times, so shocks will be external and profound. In the meantime it's all peaches and cream.

Eat, drink, and be merry, for tomorrow we die.

Best Wishes
Paper Tiger

[Joshuatree]

Extremely bullish interview with pip fruit guy on Midday rural report on national radio. $1 billion business by 2020-22. High Demand continues , no sign of diminishing, with premium prices to boot; compared to rest of world growers and tonnage apples per hectare 60 and increasing vs 40 ton hect rest of world. Combined with another outstanding growing season and poss increasing in shareholding, tension from chinese; i think there could be more to s/p yet.
Listenduration 8′ :25″ (http://www.radionz.co.nz/national/programmes/ruralnews/audio/201835580/midday-rural-news-for-6-march-2017) pip fruit re 2 min 42 secs in.

[Beagle]

I have the feeling this is going to be one of those stocks like EBO, HBL, AIA, RDB etc. Every time you research it, it will always seem expensive and 'fully priced', so you hold off. A few months later you'll look back hoping things will right themselves. But in the mean time it will have gone up another 5-10%. Process repeats for years and the stock is just always 'full priced'. You miss out on a ten bagger and dividends along the way. Such is a nature of such a good quality stock, especially one that tends to under-promise and over-deliver.

Then eventually, after a few years, you'll realise you've missed the boat, and spend countless hours analysing a stock you don't own and posting on the thread all the reasons why the company is a bad investment. See HBL thread.

Chart is looking pretty good too.

Maybe those cabbies aren't so silly Winner.

Disc in the interests of fairness; Own and looking at offloading some, purely to rebalance the portfolio.

A ten bagger with an argi stock mate :lol: Thanks mate, I enjoyed the humor. Maybe the rest of your comment has some merit, time will tell.

[Joshuatree]

The interview on nat radio is great segueway into what you're saying nbt. On to it:t_up:

[Balance]

A ten bagger with an argi stock mate :lol: Thanks mate, I enjoyed the humor. Maybe the rest of your comment has some merit, time will tell.

https://www.nzx.com/files/attachments/254482.pdf

CEO of Mr Apple sold 450,000 of his 510,000 shares.
Hmmmmmmmm

[drcjp]

https://www.nzx.com/files/attachments/254482.pdf

CEO of Mr Apple sold 450,000 of his 510,000 shares.
Hmmmmmmmm

Yes, does make one think, but dispassionately, the shares belonged to the Canaan Trust and he is not the only beneficiary. Also, he still has the ESOP and personal holdings.

[Balance]

Yes, does make one think, but dispassionately, the shares belonged to the Canaan Trust and he is not the only beneficiary. Also, he still has the ESOP and personal holdings.

Family trust.

Am never one to take on the implications of CEO or management of company selling.

Prefer to buy when they buy, and sell when they sell.

[nextbigthing]

A ten bagger with an argi stock mate.

I see where you're going with this. I should have said 15 bagger. I just wanted to be a bit conservative Roger and not be too greedy :). I'm happy to concede this one and go with 15.

I thought a dividend hound would be very interested in SCL as part of balanced and diversified portfolio?

[Beagle]

https://www.nzx.com/files/attachments/254482.pdf

CEO of Mr Apple sold 450,000 of his 510,000 shares.
Hmmmmmmmm

No doubt we weighed up his options carefully :)


I see where you're going with this. I should have said 15 bagger. I just wanted to be a bit conservative Roger and not be too greedy :). I'm happy to concede this one and go with 15.

I thought a dividend hound would be very interested in SCL as part of balanced and diversified portfolio?

LOL mate. I bought in around $1.60 from memory and sold out at $3.26 in sufficient quantity to make "the occasional" apple pie.
Its an agri stock mate with all the risks that entails. The hound always has his nose to the ground looking for value / his next feed but if he thinks something is overpriced and a drop may be coming impacting his stash of dog food he drops it like a hot potato that might burn his snout :)


Family trust.

Am never one to take on the implications of CEO or management of company selling.

Prefer to buy when they buy, and sell when they sell.
Agree.

[janner]

No doubt we weighed up his options carefully :)



LOL mate. I bought in around $1.60 from memory and sold out at $3.26 in sufficient quantity to make "the occasional" apple pie.
Its an agri stock mate with all the risks that entails. The hound always has his nose to the ground looking for value / his next feed but if he thinks something is overpriced and a drop may be coming impacting his stash of dog food he drops it like a hot potato that might burn his snout :)


Agree.

Bought in at a higher price ( conservative investor ). sold 40% @ 3.45 on the way down..

Retain the remaining 60% @ around 1.90.. Of course I am not having any profit apart from two dividends..

Waiting with 60% for the ten Bagger.. or ready to jump if it ??.. Plenty of room IMHO..

Disc. Not to be used if you are not a very conservative investor ..

[macduffy]

Apple crops appear to have avoided damage from the recent heavy rain. But a warning here about one of the risks of owning "horticulture" stocks?

http://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/news/article.cfm?c_id=3&objectid=11817247

[Joshuatree]

Yeah easy to get complacent after the amazing unusual 3 year (plus?)ex run we've had re weather and heavy cropping. That article seems a bit light weight to me.I would think quality of fruit has taken a hit and grapes maybe big hit atp. Hot, sunny, Dry weather being needed to make for a vintage year in grapes re brix, flavour etc esp for Reds. Be int to hear from wine aficionados.

[pierre]

Interesting story in this morning's Hawke's Bay Today headed "We're growing the 'best apples in the world'. I cant find the article on line so here are a few quotes:

"Harvesting the 2017 record apple crop has been in full swing with orchards across New Zealand's apple growing regions a picture of red and green trees laden with fruit boasting in size, crispness, quality and flavor. Pipfruit New Zealand's chief executive Alan Pollard says it has been an excellent growing season producing fruit of intense colour and sweetness. "When you bite into a New Zealand apple this season you will quickly know why we are the best place in the world to grow apples - for both our international customers and back home" Mr Pollard says.

Yummy Fruit Company chairman John Paynter says "This is a very unique season. I've never seen one quite like it. While we growers often stand on the upside of optimism, fruit is eating exceptionally well and looking outstanding on the shelves."

Mr Pollard says that across all fruit growing regions, the 2017 season is surpassing all others. "Everything is coming together. We are experiencing back to back record crops in both value and volume," he says."

[Joshuatree]

Thanks pierre. Less than 60mm of rain yest in hastings and i guess most of the crop may be picked by now. Heres the article. Incredible that year after year the seasons and cropping keep excelling higher.
Yummy Fruit: We're growing 'best apples in world' (http://www.nzherald.co.nz/hawkes-bay-today/news/article.cfm?c_id=1503462&objectid=11832951)

[macduffy]

Are SCL growing Envy variety?

http://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/news/article.cfm?c_id=3&objectid=11833727

[ace5715]

Are SCL growing Envy variety?

http://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/news/article.cfm?c_id=3&objectid=11833727

It doesn't look like they are growing them from the Mr Apple website.

http://mrapple.com/about-our-apples/varieties-availability/

[Balance]

It doesn't look like they are growing them from the Mr Apple website.

http://mrapple.com/about-our-apples/varieties-availability/

Mr Apple's biggest and most lucrative market is China. Envy is not an apple which finds favor there as I understand it from one China distributor - they like their apples there very sweet.

[hummerh40]

NZX Release
2 May 2017

FINAL DIVIDEND - 2016 FINANCIAL YEAR

Diversified listed agribusiness Scales Corporation Limited (NZX:SCL) has
declared a fully imputed final dividend for the 2016 Financial Year of 10.0c
per share.

Taking into account the 8.0c interim dividend paid in January 2017, dividends
for the 2016 year total 18c per share, representing 66% of underlying net
profit after tax, which is within the stated dividend policy payout range.

The final dividend is payable on 7 July 2017, with a record date of 28 June
2017

Directors' comment
Scales' directors remain positive with regard to 2017 financial performance,
with all three divisions (Horticulture, Storage & Logistics and Food
Ingredients) trading well during the first quarter of 2017 and including this
year's apple harvest.

An update will be provided at the Annual Shareholders Meeting scheduled for
Wednesday 14 June at 4.30pm in Christchurch.

[RTM]

Thanks Hummer. Nice.
I was down in Napier around Easter and went for a cycle out around the apple orchards.
Quite impressive. Still a lot of apples on the trees at that stage which was good to see as the storm had just gone through. Not a huge number lying on the ground.
Cheers
RTM

[Meextr]

I am quite new to this site, I have read a few times the term 'bagger' such as 5 bagger 15 bagger. Can someone please enlighten me to what this term means?

[macduffy]

I am quite new to this site, I have read a few times the term 'bagger' such as 5 bagger 15 bagger. Can someone please enlighten me to what this term means?

It refers to the multiple by which a shareprice appreciates over one's buying price, eg a ten-bagger, should one be so fortunate, is selling at 10 times one's cost price.

[777]

I am quite new to this site, I have read a few times the term 'bagger' such as 5 bagger 15 bagger. Can someone please enlighten me to what this term means?

A "ten bagger" is a term used by investors to describe an investment that is exited at 10 times the initial investment. The number can be changed to describe a different exit for the investment. For example, a four bagger describes an exit at four times the initial investment.


You too could have used our friend Mr Google.

Welcome aboard.

[winner69]

Will SCL ever get to $4

[sb9]

Will SCL ever get to $4

Word on the street is by Christmas not sure which year though, lol...

[couta1]

Will SCL ever get to $4 SP moving below MA200, although other indicators starting to show stock moving into oversold territory. Disc-Holding small holding for divvy strip.

[RupertBear]

Have a very small number of these but they dont seem to be doing much. The sp is the same as when I bought them months ago. I suspect there are better places to park my money in the short term but I am thinking they are not a bad longer term hold. Any thoughts?

[winner69]

Nearly a year now prince has ranged between 300 odd and 350 odd

Wonder if the breakout (if one occurs) is up or down?

Maybe ASM might bring some guidance

In the meantime suppose here's a few buying to get the 10 cent divie coming up

[RupertBear]

Nearly a year now prince has ranged between 300 odd and 350 odd

Wonder if the breakout (if one occurs) is up or down?

Maybe ASM might bring some guidance

In the meantime suppose here's a few buying to get the 10 cent divie coming up

Yep I have mainly held on for the divie...so may jump ship after that ...that is sure to make the sp go up ;)

[couta1]

Nearly a year now prince has ranged between 300 odd and 350 odd

Wonder if the breakout (if one occurs) is up or down?

Maybe ASM might bring some guidance

In the meantime suppose here's a few buying to get the 10 cent divie coming up Yep, just as good as the next Air divvy aye winner, except you don't have to wait until Sept. Have been in accumulation mode so my small holding has turned into a larger one. Nothing like an XOS sized slice of apple pie in the middle of winter.

[Ace]

Have a very small number of these but they dont seem to be doing much. The sp is the same as when I bought them months ago. I suspect there are better places to park my money in the short term but I am thinking they are not a bad longer term hold. Any thoughts?

I totally agree that they are a great long term hold. To keep things short - sure they may go through business cycles, booms and busts - there will be years of great growth, and years of stagnant and even negative growth. Looking at averages, SCL has been able to produce consistent results once you account for the variations in the business cycle. Coupled with little long term debt and a great dividend policy it means that SCL is likely to "weather" and survive any hardship that comes it's way whilst at the same time providing a nice return to shareholders in terms of dividends as compared to a conservative or even aggressive dividend policy which acts to the detriment of the shareholders in the former and the company in the latter. Continued reinvestment in the business, a nice 'bite' of the NZ Apple market share with Mr. Apple, 'diversified' in several sectors (i.e. cold storage which acts as a hedge to their agricultural business), great company culture and benefits to the employee Scales leaves little else to be desired. Yes there are both positive and negative outlooks on future growth, yes there are positive outlooks in growth of sales in foreign markets. I do think Scales does take a bit of a hit and sometimes the SP does get ahead of itself on predictions solely based on it's merits for future growth and take overs or lack thereof. I'll leave it up to you to decide if it's overvalued or undervalued, although one thing I know for sure is that if I owned Scales I'd be a happy owner.

[percy]

The PE ratio is 12.32 and the yield is 4.35%
With no eps growth this PE appears a little high.
From www.4-traders.com 2016 eps 27.02............2017 eps 25.7...............2018 eps 25.5.............2019 27.1.

[Ace]

Nearly a year now prince has ranged between 300 odd and 350 odd

Wonder if the breakout (if one occurs) is up or down?

Maybe ASM might bring some guidance

In the meantime suppose here's a few buying to get the 10 cent divie coming up

I'm curious in finding out the impact of Debbie and or Cook to crops haha, I think I read they will be advising of the impacts during the ASM.

[couta1]

I'm curious in finding out the impact of Debbie and or Cook to crops haha, I think I read they will be advising of the impacts during the ASM. From all indicators to date, minimal impact would be the answer.

[Joshuatree]

Debbie and Cook aside it has been a "perfect storm";) of perfect weather for the apple crops ever since SCL listed; i guess they will get hit one of these years but in the meantime they are in a great cycle.In fact all our commodity and produce exports are booming, volume and price wise (the$6$6$6)from dairy to red meat and wool and logs and avocados and kiwifruit and fish and apples etc ;i will be superhappy when our chicken exports join the export ride. Holding SCL from about $1.70.

[couta1]

Sellers drying up.:cool:

[Balance]

http://www.nzherald.co.nz/hawkes-bay-today/news/article.cfm?c_id=1503462&objectid=11854064

Crop could be 10% less than forecast - same as last year.

http://www.sharechat.co.nz/article/1d224c47/nz-commodity-prices-rise-3-in-may-led-by-a-jump-in-apple-kiwifruit-prices.html

But apple prices are good.

[couta1]

Sellers drying up.:cool: The only blue arrow in my undiversified 4 stock portfolio currently, apples and pet food not so bad aye.

[couta1]

Had a good read of the AGM presentation, everything looks pretty solid to me, conservative guidance confirmed as expected. Thoughts from others?

[Balance]

https://www.nzx.com/files/attachments/259943.pdf

Sold out and not inclined to reinvest anytime soon after reading Trading Update :

1. Crop size similar to last 2 years - so yield per acreage has dropped as acquisition of Longview increased orchards planted by 8%.

2. Packout for exports expected to be lower than the 81% (exceptional) in 2016 - average is 75%. So potential for volume of exports to drop by 7.6%.

3. Pricing in line with expectations - word is that Chile has been flooding the market with apples so prices for some varieties (eg. Royal Gala) are down on last year. Not sure how exposed Mr Apple is to royal gala market.

So am expecting full year results NOT to surprise on the upside this year and an agricultural stock trading on a PER of around 13X to me is not compelling when earnings are likely to decrease.

As usual, DYOR.

[percy]

The strength of the NZ $ works against SCL.

[Joshuatree]

Was talking to a friend today who works in the Fruit industry. Looks like training trees on wires something like Espalier is going to be where big production gains are going to come from. Double or triple volume of trees per hectare; no more ladder picking and easy quick pruning , mechanised in some cases. Not aware of whether this has already started or about to or which particular fruits are ideal for this; but sounded like across the board for cherries ,apricots, nectarines , peaches, plums, apples.

There is also a newish variety of Avo, the GEM; a small vase shaped tree, so many many more planted per hectare, crops well every year; matures a bit later than Hass and stores on the tree longer; is more oval and goes dark like the Hass when ripe and tastes better.

[Lewylewylewy]

Sounds like good buying in a year or so

[percy]

Sounds like good buying in a year or so

Yes not sure whether it will be a year,or so,however they remain on my watch list.
A very well managed business,which I will look forward to having back in my portfolio.

[Balance]

Yes not sure whether it will be a year,or so,however they remain on my watch list.
A very well managed business,which I will look forward to having back in my portfolio.

SCL is an unquestionable outstanding NZ success story - all credit to the directors and management.

Question of what is a fair price to pay for such a story given the vagaries of the underlying commodity business.

[Joshuatree]

Thats exactly why i didn't buy earlier in the life of SCL; too many things that could go wrong esp the weather.But with Scales its been the other way round; so many things have gone right, lol. Its in a good cycle still , I'm holding not buying.