NZSX50 - Good News!

It will take a 53% rise from current levels for the NZSX50 to regain its 2007 peaks. I am pleased to be able to report that this will happen at 2.15 pm on 19/12/2011.

Naturally, such a confident assertion rests on a couple of minor assumptions :-
(1) The bottom of the Bear market was reached on 3/3/09.
(2) The subsequent recovery will be at the usual 20% per annum.

http://h1.ripway.com/78963/NZSX5064.gif

Phaedrus, thanks for this. Can you give me the time it will be reached? I want to place my sell orders now and pre-book the debt-financed holiday.

:D

2.15pm, Placebo. I've already told you this. Pay attention!

Ahhh Phaedrus

you make me laugh

I can see you at home now.....waiting for all the TA cyncis to take the bait.

Phaedrus.

I can't figure this out. If TA is able to predict an exact time of 2.15pm which falls during daylight savings, how do things change if the Government were to alter the daylight savings legislation between now and then and what your chart says is 2.15 isn't actually 2.15 when 2.15 arrives?

I can't see how your chart can account for this possibility, so surely the whole thing is flawed? I'm calling Warren!

Working are for those that dont know Phaedrus and those that dont fish. :p;)

Stranger-Danger. In actual fact, 2.15pm is only an estimate - a "best guess" if you like. The 4332 target could be hit anywhere between 1.12pm and 3.18pm. On balance, though, the probability is around 2.15pm. Any variance caused by daylight savings would not move us outside the predicted time range, so there is not a lot of point trying to factor it into the calculation. The figures as quoted are accurate enough for most purposes.

Quote:

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Originally Posted by Placebo

Phaedrus, thanks for this. Can you give me the time it will be reached? I want to place my sell orders now and pre-book the debt-financed holiday.

:D

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I'm with you. I'll take out another mortgage on the house and pour it all into the market, not too sure which stocks yet but I've got some time to figure that one out.

I might set my sell order for 1pm to avoid the rush though. It's gonna be a great Chistmas in 2011!!! :D

Ah, but how many of you have actually checked to see if 19/12/2011 is a trading day;)

Quote:

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Originally Posted by wbosher

I'm with you. I'll take out another mortgage on the house and pour it all into the market, not too sure which stocks yet but I've got some time to figure that one out.

I might set my sell order for 1pm to avoid the rush though. It's gonna be a great Chistmas in 2011!!! :D

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At 20% pa guaranteed why bother trying to sort out what stocks to buy .... just go and get some FNZ which tracks the index .... cheaper in the long run probably ... and yes 20% pa guaranteed for the next 2 years ....