NZ Herald EDITORIAL today
The post-pandemic imbalances in the New Zealand economy are starting to work themselves out - finally...
https://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/...A7ZIE3NHDUWCA/
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NZ Herald EDITORIAL today
The post-pandemic imbalances in the New Zealand economy are starting to work themselves out - finally...
https://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/...A7ZIE3NHDUWCA/
NZ economy ‘on track’ for a soft landing, says Infometrics economist Gareth Kiernan
https://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/...H3EMFTK2KWIDM/
“Soft landing” is when a cyclical slowdown in economic growth avoids recession, usually by controlling inflation - without causing a severe downturn in the economy...
It is the goal of a central bank when it seeks to raise interest rates just enough to stop an economy from overheating and experiencing high inflation, without causing a severe downturn
Job ads declining
https://www.seek.co.nz/about/news/em...t-september-nz
Wealth falls, inflation drops - thanks mainly to higher interest rates.
Households poorer by $255 billion over the past six quarters, with net worth down over 10%. That's a quarter Trillion dollars NZ no longer has.
Down $33 billion in the June quarter itself, with more than half down to declining property, Stats NZ data show. Debt up. Lower OCR still a way off.
About 54% of existing mortgages by value are fixed and due to reprice onto a new generally higher mortgage rate over the next 12 months.
https://tmmonline.nz/article/9765223...till+a+way+off
1 USD was .682893 on 30 Dec 2021 - 6 quarters ago from Stats NZ data for June quarter 2023, when it closed at .606576 = another 11%+ fall.
1 USD was .674594 on 20 April 2022 - 6 quarters ago from today, when USD:NZD is at .583 = 13%+ fall, so worse off since the June quarter.
So, in USD terms (purchasing power parity globally) because of the falling NZD, we've lost almost a quarter of our Household wealth in the last 18 months. That almost 25% loss IS SHOCKING!
Hope those who desire a lower NZD - realize what they're asking for. Loss of wealth is just the beginning, as it leads to lower GDP, lower earnings, lower tax revenues and therefore lower social spending, expense and lifestyle choices cuts etc.
America's federal budget deficit (difference between government spending and tax revenue) has roughly doubled over the year to $2 trillion, according to latest White House estimates, despite Biden's student loan plan (which would have increased deficits) being struck down.
US Government spent about $711 billion last year just to pay interest on the national debt (nearly $200 billion more than previous year). US Interest costs alone were expected to total over $10.5 trillion over the next decade in Budget Office projections, last May when "higher for longer rhetoric" was just being broached (so costs up further since May).
https://www.nytimes.com/2023/10/20/b...-trillion.html
India-NZ trade: All systems go with fresh government attention on both sides, says business council
https://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/...NG3OVPRW4FVPU/
As NZ stimulates growth via tax cuts, US has committed itself to increasing spending to fund/ aid Ukraine, Israel, Taiwan.
Attachment 14803
While our Budget deficits are estimated to decrease therefore, US budget deficits are bound to increase.
So NZD weakness seems irrational. Interestingly, weak currencies are inflationary. So, the more NZD falls, the more RBNZ must raise OCR to compensate.
Thoughts any one?
Despite in its quarterly Small Business Index, Xero saying ..."It’s clear we’re sitting in the middle of the pack ...,"
Sales
Australia, +5.5% y/y growth in September 2023
United Kingdom, +1.1% y/y growth
NZ, -1.5% (y/y) in September 2023
Canada -5.6% drop in June 2023
US -7.7% drop in June 2023
https://www.interest.co.nz/business/...d-some-regions
The latest ANZ-Roy Morgan consumer confidence survey shows optimism about the economy rising...
Expectations for the housing market were the strongest in almost two years...
https://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/...IOKWZUK5WI56E/