large short triggered last night on spike over .8
see how we go
Currently+65
Cheers
Slam
Printable View
large short triggered last night on spike over .8
see how we go
Currently+65
Cheers
Slam
Gone short tonight on a trendline break. Let's see whether I can earn money in my sleep :). Timeframes on forex are quite tricky compared with indices.
Yes it was...however, what happens during the fed's announcements? Is trading halted? Any chance of a large gap through a stop?
Closed out for +68, being my first position trade with forex I won't risk playing with Bernanke's power. I was't all that satisfied with my entry to be honest (Entered on a trendline break on the 5 min chart and then used the dailies to find the stop!:() Will also really need to make up my mind about those timeframes.
Yes things looking a bit bumpy right now...up to 7807 again.
The US dollar is in transition from short-term recovery into medium-term rebound.
Honestly I think the NZD Strong Age ...... IS OVER !!
Personally I opened short position against NZD.
I m sorry mates, but I need money.
http://bp1.blogger.com/_6nTmMn9wzb4/...2Bmay%2B08.JPG
bye
hi belumat good to see your back
the link you posted is not working
seems you and I skipped the same I.T. classes at school
interested to see you views or charts on dow
Let's try a test.
Tell me which graph you can see :
1) http://chart.findata.co.nz/?e=FOREX&...6&h=360&n=5500
2) http://stockcharts.com/c-sc/sc?s=$WTIC&p=D&b=5&g=0&i=t07877153255&r=3235
3) http://bp1.blogger.com/_6nTmMn9wzb4/...++2+may+08.JPG
maybe I understood !!
It 's always Monday morning.
I think Dumbass you are right.
Thank you and forgive me
Hi Belumat1
1) opens in a Web page
2) has no link so you need to cut and paste it into a browser address
3) opens a file in a picture viewer
1) is the easiest to use
Hope this helps
Cheers
Slam
Well done Slam !
Thank for your advise.
It's been perfect.
Since now ...... no more problems
bye
http://www.sharetrader.co.nz/picture...=5&pictureid=6
Hm...a reverse head and shoulders pattern just got confirmed on the hourlies...I'm staying clear for now. Dailies are still in a downtrend.
Should have gone long on that...would have been a nice 40 pips.
Going short now on bouncing off resistance at 0.7870...ideally I would have waited for a breakout from the rectangle, but this was quite a tight stop. Still have this feeling that I'm trying to pick tops :(
New Zealand Dollar Falls as Employment Drops Most in 19 Years
By Tracy Withers
May 8 (Bloomberg) -- New Zealand's dollar fell for a second day after a government report showed employment contracted in the first quarter, adding to signs that economic growth is slowing and increasing the prospects of an interest-rate cut.
The currency slid to the lowest this week after the report showed employment had its biggest fall in 19 years and the unemployment rate rose to 3.6 percent from 3.4 percent in the first quarter. Employers shed 28,000 workers in the quarter, more than 10 times the decline expected by economists.
``A weak employment number is confirmation of the economic slowdown,'' said Michael Gordon, currency strategist at Westpac Banking Corp. in Wellington. ``The market is looking for confirmation of a slowdown to justify selling the kiwi,'' he said, referring to the currency by its nickname.
New Zealand's dollar slid to 77.79 U.S. cents at 10:50 a.m. in Wellington from 78.17 cents before the report and 78.62 cents in late Asian trading yesterday.
Reserve Bank Governor Alan Bollard said yesterday the outlook for the economy has deteriorated. Banks shouldn't tighten lending too much or that might ``exacerbate the contraction,'' Bollard told reporters.
Finance Minister Michael Cullen said yesterday households ``are under serious pressure'' and this month's budget will forecast slowing growth.
The economy may grow 1.5 percent this year, the slowest in a decade, according to the median forecast of 10 economists surveyed by Bloomberg News.
Economy to Slow
Eleven of 16 economists expect Bollard to cut rates from 8.25 percent this year. Four see lower borrowing costs before Sept. 30. A lower official cash rate may curb demand for the currency. New Zealand's benchmark rate is 6.25 percentage points higher than the Federal Reserve's target rate and 7.5 points more than Japan's benchmark.
New Zealand 10-year government bonds were unchanged. The yield on the 6 percent note due December 2017 was at 6.43 percent, according to data compiled by Bloomberg.
To contact the reporter on this story: Tracy Withers in Wellington at twithers@bloomberg.net.
There was a quite obvious Butterfly and Gartley
that came together on the intraday time frames.....
I snapped this chart earlier just after the announcment
Hi All
Looking at circa .7550 as low on current channel to exit.
Will cover/reverse on a bounce
May have another wave to go before then.(4/5)
Been in this channel now since March
Anyone else surfing it?
Cheers
Slam
Hi Slam
Yes I was in for 42 pips off the fall
rgds - arco
Maybe turning down again for 5th leg
Target as below
Cheers
Slam
i also got 40 pips on Friday night from 7697 - 7658
it seems to have bearish gartleyd since 7750 making it a sell at 7720 tho I wasnt there to partake (currently 7695)
just closed for another 50 thanks slam
was a bit slow getting in last night , looking for a bit more confirmation which I felt I had at 7686 and have just closed now at 7636....
if I'd playd the gartley with conviction it would have been 80 pips. 50 is ok tho. kiwi hasnt a history of doing me any favours....
Hi Peat
Nice
I'm still holding for .7550ish
Broken .7630 so still possible
Will cover on a bounce (got tight stops)
Cheers
Slam
Closed shorts on spike down at .7560
on bad news "March/Q1 Retail Trade Far Weaker Than Expected"
Let see what happens now hey
Cheers
Slam
any ideas why the kiwi is going up so strongly after the budget.
its not a USD thing....
tax cuts and govt spending may add to inflationary pressures meaning the reserve bank may not drop rates. that would be my guess.
-j
ah b.ugger Steve
yeh I was short last night too but closed out with a mere 30
events are dangerous times to be in the mkt.
The NZD has stabilised following the budget, waiting for the next RBNZ announcement to indicate how the future rate cuts have been delayed.
It is unlikely that any new highs will be threatened...
Hi Peat/DB
the kiwi is still contained in its down channel i have two shorts on the kiwi 7589 and 7571, sl 7619 looking for a first target of 7450 area, then 161 area maybe, think reasonable prob with 3 doiji and continuing negative data coming out
Hi ALL
Not quite the sell down i was looking for with GDP, i think the market had already factored it in exited at 7544 for a few pips banked!
[FONT='Verdana','sans-serif']The New Zealand dollar rebounded today from an overnight slump despite soft GDP data.[/FONT]
In a counter-intuitive move the kiwi climbed against all currencies despite news the economy shrank by 0.3 per cent in the March quarter.
ANZ chief dealer Murray Hindley said it was a classic short squeeze.
The data was no worse than economists' forecasts, and the selling after was mild, traders who had shorted the kiwi were squeezed.
Short traders sell a currency on expectation they can buy back cheaper when the exchange rate is lower.
The kiwi, which had opened on US75.57c, closed on US76.05c.
Against the aussie it ended on A79.35c from its A79.04c opening. It fell overnight to around A78.75c, the lowest level in nearly seven years.
The kiwi's rise was also in spite of a pounding equity markets around the world took, lead by Wall Street which plunged 3 per cent.
In recent times a fall in equities has led to a fall in the kiwi as traders flee risk.
Some economists believe the second quarter growth will be worse than the first but with that quarter almost over, the worst may be nearly over.
Westpac economist Dominick Stephens said "we've probably lived through the absolute worst of this recession.
"The third quarter should be not as bad as the second quarter. We do think the whole of 2008 is going to be a pretty sharp correction for people, particularly urban consumers."
I think the ANZ were very pleased with themselves!
Unfortunately NZ is in deep trouble, very sick we are. It is just that these (Australian Bank) economists keep looking backwards. There will be no productive sector left to recover by the time they agree that Bollard should drop the interest rates.
The ANZ may not have the last laugh...
HI Peat/DB,
I have been getting hammered lately on shorting the kiwi so just wondering whether this scenario might play out.What are your thoughts?
B AT .50 and D at .886 to make a bearish bat,the kiwi would have to brake out of its downtrend channel to achieve this scenario
what time is the announcement today?
9.00
im going to trade it , you having a punt
ah yeh I see its on their website 9 am
http://www.rbnz.govt.nz/monpol/statements/0092224.html
I'll buy a small amount at 7460 but its tricky for me I'm walking to work at that time...
.25 cut to 8%
got 60 pips but it dived a wopping 140 pips in seconds
check this out peat
spreads went over 40 pips on Oanda... insane.... got stopped in the same minute.... but the reaction seems muted now that spreads are back to normal
wheres the kiwi going over the next three months?
The possible direction of the Kiwi over the next 3 months..............
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=sdUUx5FdySs
HI TODDY
it would be interesting to know how he traded,what setups, patterns,he used
etc
cheers
roddy
Hi All,
i am short at 7279 and 7268 on the kiwi and my target is .70 cent area,next fib level Re chart,first hurdle is to break 72
nice trade roddy , target hit
Hi All
Closed last short
The channel NZD has been in since March has been great
Broken below now, so will have to re-evaluate next trade
Looking for a bounce to reset
I think the 70c hurdle may take a few attempts to break
Cheers
Slam
Thanks DB,
I have been trying to evaluate whether to hold my short on the NZD/JPY its broken through triangle on the daily but in comparison has retraced further than the kiwi/usd which to reach the 38.2 fib would need to be around .65,so perhaps mite be more opportunity there,tho as slam points out its quite a major level and may take some breaking
yeah take a bow roddy ,
my feeling is a counter trend rally is underway i have closed out a short on gbpjpy
im really convinced its going to break lower and hard, but feel i can use this counter trend
rally to short higher up , so i think nzd jpy should be similar.
long on eur usd 149 90 targeting 151 50 but being very careful
Hi i have researching a good platform for trading FX options particularly the NZ/US..aybody have any recommendations?
Hi All
Well I reset a short position ( small one) on the spike to .7070
Has pushed through .70 but not convincingly.
Still think a bigger bounce is on the cards, but I'll scalp 80pips in the mean time.
Dailys way oversold, but we could get a fall to .6640 before real support appears.
Interesting week ahead I think
Cheers
Slam
Big wide ranging candle yesterday (spinning top/one day reversal?). Is this the start of the bounce?
__________________
Thinking out aloud...........
Just wonder if Kiwi could be under the influence of the large red mishapen BF.
In while case its eventual destination could be the dark grey box below.
Currently the green BF and Gartley could produce a northern run where the old support may then create resistance for a further fall.
Any thoughts on the EW count DB
rgds - arco
Planetram
You could look at Oanda they have 'box options'....I have a real account with Oanda, but I haven't used the box options myself.Quote:
Hi i have researching a good platform for trading FX options particularly the NZ/US..anybody have any recommendations?
http://fxtrade.oanda.com/forex_tradi...fxbox_options/
arco
Why is the $NZ so strong?
Dr Who
There was an expectancy (check post #956)
sorry arco , missed your request for an elliot count , will rectify tout de suite
expanded flat currently in a c wave
multi year trendline to break and then heading for at least 60 and probably quite quickly
Hi DB
Thanks for the EW count and summary.
That pretty much agrees with the conclusion in my post and chart #956
......................Could be a nice southern flight (for a flightless bird).
arco
i do find it weird when the b of the abc goes above 5 tho..
Know what you mean Peat........
In expanded flats, wave B of the 3-3-5 pattern terminates beyond the starting level of wave A, and wave C ends more substantially beyond the ending level of wave A
http://www.elliottwave.com/club/memb...es/fig1-37.gif
Dr Who
You will need to ask a fundamentalist that question.
...........My trading is based on technical analysis
rgds -arco
Hi Peat
Thanks for posting that interesting note from Max........seems to mirror roughly the early stages of my chart idea from post #956.
Only time will tell.............
arco
so i averaged in at 7120 during the pull back last evening. 1/4 closed at +90 stop raised to 7170 for the remainder.
.
Nice one Peat. Good when a plan comes together.
I was also long Euro.......TP got hit overnight.
rgds-arco
Spotted this on the hourlies last night. A busted ascending triangle with a false breakout, complete with RSI divergence. Looking OK on the dailies as well. Up 40 odd pips so far.
http://www.sharetrader.co.nz/picture...5&pictureid=41
Just picking up a bit of USD strength after the Lehman brothers bankruptcy. I'm short at 6582 SL at 6623.
Trailing very aggressively this trade, if even a hint of reversal comes up I'm out.
Not sure if you are still in or out AMR.....
I took +50 pips before retiring, leaving a balance on (with target 126 pips) but it got stopped at +5.
Still a nice win and a good day on a few others as well.
Was up 40 odd pips at one stage but decided to let it run. Stopped out at -18 pips. Ah well, "letting it run" clearly isn't a good idea in this market.
Kiwi just fell off a cliff
Looks like a 400+ pip swing until it recovered a bit.
I'd have to say that's the biggst single day swing I recall ever seeing with the Kiwi
Anyone know the cause of the big dip today?
Some news coming up
So y'day I thought I put my hand to the challenging Kiwi... 4 trades of which the first two failed.
The first short was off a very small time frame gartley (not drawn) but got stopped only because I moved the stop down from its original placement above the green line.
The second long also failed but the final two longs off the gartley in green and yellow worked a treat while I slept.
I ve also been keeping an eye in NZDUSD.
IT is bad news for NZ economy for USD weakness. Export is our only saviour. If our export sector gets hit and there is a drought, I would hate to see what will happen to the NZ economy.
Not that I take much notice of polls, but spotted this today on Stuff
A recent Reuters poll put the kiwi weakening toward US52c-US53c in the first part of 2009.
http://www.stuff.co.nz/4811020a13.html
time to change direction again and go short as we bounce off the 78% retracement of the high at just below .61 stop could conservatively be placed just above .60 (the recent high) but the rules say 61 (X).
strange that the gartley in the previous trade was misshapen in the same way that this one on the bigger time frame (1 hour) is with normal XA but an extended AB. could mean somethings wrong so I'm not recommending this trade to others but I'm doing it. risking last nights spoils.
sorry about the quotes in the pic... having a few display problems
trade on post #985 looking to start the payback now after testing .6040 (so a conservative stop would have been hit - as I said its best to play with the proper rules). Another thing to notice is that there was a 78% retracement of the spike up and perhaps another way of trading this is to wait for that and then sell at that level OR to wait for the C wave of that bit to go lower than the A wave and sell there...
Would have been a nice short at 60 cents. I was close to shorting it, but decided not to after talking to a friend. :(
You are right about that. I don't think a lot of people take the USD problems seriously. Obama just announced that the US is likely to run $ Trillion deficits for many years to come . . . that sounds pretty dollar negative to me.
http://www.nytimes.com/2009/01/07/us...a.html?_r=2&hp
TBH I dont think you can take that sort of prediction (John Key)seriously - especially not from a traders perspective. its more like an economists prediction which may work for companies putting a hedging programme in place but wont work for traders unless they have very deep pockets (soon to be emptied).
Also, he really should keep his trap shut on these matters now that he is PM. Its so wrong for him to be jawboning the markets
ABN Amro suggested in their December newsletter that the Kiwi might go to 48 in 2009 but thought it wouldnt go much lower than that. But yeh this is not useable information for me.
2/3rd closed 10 pips shy of target at .5830 from sell at .5958 :D
Should I short NZD today at .5940?
I would be careful. I'm am not a currency trader but if the USD resumes it's slide lower with any gusto in the weeks ahead, that's likely to drive the AUD and NZD higher short term . . . hope I'm not missing something here but shorting might not work too well. Personally I would stay away from currencies at the moment, too much market risk and volatility. Just my opinion though.
coming announcements
What do you guys think about going long on NZDUSD for a few weeks at around the 52 cent mark?